Motivation
A discrete-event simulation of a queue, an inventory system or a communication network produces an output process Y={Y(t):t≥0}, and the quantity of interest is usually its steady-state mean μ, the long-run average of Y. The natural estimator is the time average Yˉn(1)=n1∫0nY(s)ds of a run of length n. A confidence interval for μ needs the scale of the fluctuations of Yˉn(1), the variance constant σ2 of the central limit theorem n1/2(Yˉn(1)−μ)⇒σN(0,1). For correlated simulation output, σ2 is a sum of autocovariances at all lags and is hard to estimate consistently.
The method of standardized time series (STS), introduced by Schruben (Schruben 1983), avoids estimating σ: it divides the centred time average by a functional of the whole observed path that scales like σ, so that σ cancels. Batch means, the standardized sum, and the standardized maximum are all of this form.
Glynn and Iglehart (Glynn & Iglehart 1990) put the method on a general footing. They require only a functional central limit theorem (FCLT) for Y, and they identify an abstract class M of standardizing functionals for which the cancellation works. This mission formalizes their basic limit theorem, Theorem 2.4, and the four claims of its proof. Two companion results of §2, display (2.2) and the weak law Yˉn(1)⇒μ, are included as further targets.
Setting
C[0,1] is the space of continuous real functions on [0,1] with the uniform norm and its Borel σ-algebra; k∈C[0,1] is the identity path k(t)=t. For g:C[0,1]→R, D(g) is the discontinuity set of g, the set of x at which g is not continuous. A standard Brownian motion B on a probability space (Ω,F,P) is a random element of C[0,1] with Gaussian finite-dimensional laws, B(0)=0 and Cov(B(s),B(t))=min(s,t).
The output Y is a real-valued measurable process. Its scaled partial-integral process and its centred, rescaled version are
Yˉn(t)=n1∫0ntY(s)ds,Xn(t)=n1/2(Yˉn(t)−μt),0≤t≤1.
Assumption (2.1) asks for finite constants μ and σ>0 such that Xn⇒σB as n→∞, weak convergence of random elements of C[0,1]. It holds for ϕ-mixing, strongly mixing, associated and regenerative output processes, among others.
The class M of (2.3) consists of the measurable g:C[0,1]→R with
- g(αx)=αg(x) for α>0 (positive homogeneity);
- g(x−βk)=g(x) for β∈R (invariance under subtracting a linear drift);
- P{g(B)>0}=1;
- P{B∈D(g)}=0.
The proof uses the auxiliary map h(x)=x(1)/g(x) for g(x)=0 and h(x)=0 otherwise.
Formalization targets
Goal: Theorem 2.4
For every g∈M, under Assumption (2.1),
g(Yˉn)Yˉn(1)−μ⇒g(B)B(1)(n→∞).(2.5)
Milestones: the four claims of the proof (p. 3)
- P{σB∈D(h)}=0.
- h(Xn)⇒h(σB).
- h(σB)=B(1)/g(B), by (2.3i).
- h(Xn)=(Yˉn(1)−μ)/g(Yˉn) for n≥1, by (2.3i) and (2.3ii).
Companions
n1/2(Yˉn(1)−μ)⇒σB(1)(2.2)
and Yˉn(1)⇒μ.
Significance
Theorem 2.4 is the limit theorem behind every STS confidence interval. The limit B(1)/g(B) is free of σ and of the output process, so with z chosen so that P{−z≤B(1)/g(B)≤z} equals a prescribed level, the interval Yˉn(1)±zg(Yˉn) has asymptotically exact coverage for μ. Each choice of g∈M gives a method: batch means with a fixed number of batches, Schruben's standardized sum, the standardized maximum. The later sections of the paper compare the lengths of these intervals with those of consistent-estimation intervals, and those comparisons start from Theorem 2.4.
The theorem is classical and its proof is short on paper. What is missing is a machine-checked version. The formal proof needs a continuous mapping theorem for maps that are continuous only almost surely at the limit, on the non-locally-compact space C[0,1]; Mathlib has the version for continuous maps only. A formal Theorem 2.4 also makes the class M and the C[0,1]-valued FCLT available for the other results of the paper, the expected-length lower bound and its non-attainment, which are formalized in sibling missions.
Difficulty
The algebra (milestones 3 and 4) is elementary. The difficulty is the continuous-mapping step. The map h is in general not continuous: it can be discontinuous wherever g is and wherever g vanishes, and g itself may be discontinuous on a large set (the standardized maximum is). The continuous mapping theorem for continuous maps does not apply. One needs its almost-sure form: if Xn⇒X and P{X∈D(h)}=0, then h(Xn)⇒h(X). The class M controls D(g) only along the law of B, and the hypothesis of the almost-sure theorem is about D(h) at the scaled limit σB, so the conditions (2.3iii) and (2.3iv) have to be transported from B to σB and from g to h.
Formalization scope
C[0,1] is C(unitInterval, ℝ) with its sup-norm topology; the Borel MeasurableSpace instance is declared in the mission's definition file, since Mathlib has none at this commit. Weak convergence is Mathlib's TendstoInDistribution, for the C[0,1]-valued FCLT and for the real-valued conclusions. The standard Brownian motion is a measurable C[0,1]-valued map whose coordinates agree, for every ω, with a process satisfying Mathlib's IsBrownianReal. D(g) is the set of points where ContinuousAt g fails, and P{B∈D(g)} is an outer measure, so no measurability of D(g) is assumed.
Yˉn is a C[0,1]-valued parameter pinned pointwise by Yˉn(t)=n1∫0ntY(s)ds, so it is determined by Y. Assumption (2.1) carries joint measurability of Y and local integrability of each path; the second is implicit in the paper and makes Yˉn defined. The index n runs over N, and milestone 4 assumes n≥1 because (2.3i) is applied with α=n1/2. Real division by zero returns 0 in Lean, which agrees with the paper's convention for h; it matters only on events of probability zero in the limit. Condition (2.3iii) is printed "P{g(b)>0}=1" and is read as P{g(B)>0}=1.
Condition (2.3iv) is stated with the discontinuity set, not as continuity of g: requiring g continuous everywhere would exclude the standardized maximum of Example 3.10 and would make the continuous-mapping step trivial. The goal assumes nothing about h, D(h) or any mapping theorem; these appear only in the milestones.
Contributions welcome: the almost-sure continuous mapping theorem for TendstoInDistribution on a metric space (reusable well beyond this mission), the cone property of D(g) under positive homogeneity, and evaluation at a point as a continuous map on C[0,1]. Mathlib does not yet construct a Brownian motion with continuous paths as a C[0,1]-valued random element, so the hypotheses cannot be instantiated inside Lean; this is a hypothesis on B, not a vacuity.
Selected references
- P. W. Glynn and D. L. Iglehart, Simulation output analysis using standardized time series, Mathematics of Operations Research 15(1):1–16, 1990. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.15.1.1
- L. Schruben, Confidence interval estimation using standardized time series, Operations Research 31(6):1090–1108, 1983. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.31.6.1090
- P. Billingsley, Convergence of Probability Measures, Wiley, 1968 (Theorem 5.1, the continuous mapping theorem).
- K. L. Chung, A Course in Probability Theory, 2nd ed., Academic Press, 1974 (p. 93, converging-together lemma).