The Markov Chain Central Limit TheoremResearch Paper
Markov chain Monte Carlo turns hard integration problems into long simulations: to estimate an expectation $E_\pi f$ one runs a Markov chain with stationary distribution $\pi$ and reports the sample average $\bar f_n$. The ergodic theorem guarantees $\bar f_n \to E_\pi f$, but honest error bars require more: a central limit theorem $$\sqrt{n}(\bar f_n - E_\pi f) \to_d N(0, \sigma_f^2).$$ On general state spaces this is famously delicate - a merely ergodic chain with a square-integrable functional can fail the CLT, so the classical theory trades convergence rates (drift, minorization, geometric or polynomial total-variation rates) and mixing conditions ($\alpha$-, $\rho$-, $\varphi$-mixing) against moment conditions on $f$. This mission formalizes G. L. Jones's survey "On the Markov chain central limit theorem" (Probability Surveys, 2004): the drift-condition CLTs of Meyn-Tweedie and Jarner-Roberts, the classical mixing CLTs of Ibragimov-Linnik, Doukhan-Massart-Rio and Billingsley, the characterizations via uniform integrability and boundedness in probability, and their assembly into the summary theorem: six practically checkable regimes - from polynomial ergodicity with bounded functionals to uniform ergodicity with second moments - each of which guarantees the CLT for every initial distribution. The stationarity, total-variation and mixing infrastructure is general state space and reusable well beyond this mission.
Erdős Problem 390: Exact Second-Order AsymptoticResearch Paper
Determine the exact second-order term in the least possible largest factor in a factorization of $n!$ into distinct integers exceeding $n$, with the proposed rational constant $4029639598/25970038185$.
Every even integer greater than $2$ is the sum of two primes. Christian Goldbach posed it in a 1742 letter to Euler, and it has resisted proof for nearly three centuries while being verified computationally up to $4\times10^{18}$ — making it one of the oldest and most famous open problems in all of mathematics. Its ternary sibling, the weak Goldbach conjecture, was settled by Helfgott in 2013, but the strong form stated here remains wide open: the circle method controls three-prime sums yet loses control at two. This headline mission hosts the conjecture as a machine-checked target for partial results, reductions between its variants, and any future attack.
No problem in mathematics carries more weight than the Riemann hypothesis. In his single eight-page paper of 1859, 'On the Number of Primes Less Than a Given Magnitude,' Bernhard Riemann linked the seemingly erratic distribution of the primes to the zeros of the analytic continuation of the zeta function ζ(s), and conjectured that every nontrivial zero lies exactly on the critical line where the real part equals 1/2. The truth of this statement would pin down the error term in the prime number theorem and tame the fluctuations of the primes around their expected count, and hundreds of theorems already stand proven only 'conditional on RH,' waiting for it to be settled. David Hilbert placed it in his eighth problem in 1900, alongside Goldbach and the twin primes; in 2000 the Clay Mathematics Institute named it one of the seven Millennium Prize Problems, with a million-dollar reward. G. H. Hardy proved in 1914 that infinitely many zeros lie on the critical line, and trillions more have since been verified by computation to do so — overwhelming evidence that is nonetheless not a proof. After more than 160 years it remains unresolved. This mission takes Mathlib's own definition of the hypothesis as its target.
Markov Chains and Mixing Times I: Existence and Uniqueness of the Stationary DistributionTextbook
# Markov Chains and Mixing Times I: Existence and Uniqueness of the Stationary Distribution
## Motivation
Finite Markov chains are the basic model for memoryless random dynamics: card shuffles, random walks on graphs and groups, Monte Carlo samplers, and queueing systems are all chains on a finite state space. The single most used fact about them is that an irreducible chain has exactly one **stationary distribution** — a probability vector $\pi$ with $\pi = \pi P$ — and that this $\pi$ is strictly positive and encodes the long-run behaviour of the chain through the return-time identity $\pi(x) = 1/\mathbb{E}_x(\tau_x^+)$. Every later result in the theory of mixing times (convergence theorems, coupling bounds, spectral methods, cutoff) is a statement about the distance of the chain from this $\pi$, so nothing in the subject can be formalized before this mission is.
This mission is the first in a series formalizing D. A. Levin, Y. Peres and E. L. Wilmer, *Markov Chains and Mixing Times* (AMS, 2009), covering Chapters 1–2: the basic vocabulary of finite chains (stochastic matrices, irreducibility, period, reversibility, time reversal, random walks on graphs and groups) and the classical examples of Chapter 2 (gambler's ruin, coupon collecting, the reflection principle for simple random walk on $\mathbb{Z}$). Later missions in the series build on the definitions published here.
## Setting
A chain on a finite state space $\Omega$ is presented by its **transition matrix**, a matrix $P \in \mathbb{R}^{\Omega\times\Omega}$ with nonnegative entries whose rows sum to $1$. A **distribution** is a row vector $\mu$ with nonnegative entries summing to $1$; one step of the chain carries $\mu$ to $\mu P$, and the $t$-step transition probabilities are the entries of the matrix power $P^t$.
The chain is **irreducible** if for all states $x, y$ there is a $t$ with $P^t(x,y) > 0$. The **period** of a state $x$ is $\gcd\,\mathcal{T}(x)$ where $\mathcal{T}(x) = \{t \ge 1 : P^t(x,x) > 0\}$, and the chain is **aperiodic** if every state has period $1$. A distribution $\pi$ is **stationary** if $\pi P = \pi$, and $\pi$ and $P$ are in **detailed balance** (the chain is *reversible*) if $\pi(x)P(x,y) = \pi(y)P(y,x)$ for all $x,y$.
Trajectory events over a finite horizon are finite sums of path weights: a length-$t$ trajectory is a function $\omega : \{0,\dots,t\} \to \Omega$, with weight $\prod_{i<t} P(\omega_i, \omega_{i+1})$ conditional on its starting state. The tail probability $\mathbb{P}_x\{\tau_z^+ > t\}$ of the first hitting time $\tau_z^+ = \min\{t \ge 1 : X_t = z\}$ is the sum of the weights of the trajectories from $x$ that avoid $z$ at times $1,\dots,t$, and expectations of hitting times are recovered by the tail-sum formula $\mathbb{E}(Y) = \sum_{t\ge0} \mathbb{P}\{Y > t\}$, formalized as a `tsum` over $t$.
## Formalization targets
### Goal
$$\text{$P$ stochastic and irreducible on a finite nonempty $\Omega$} \;\Longrightarrow\; \exists!\, \pi,\ \pi = \pi P .$$
This is Corollary 1.17 of the book. It asserts only existence and uniqueness, leaving the finer structure of $\pi$ to the milestones; it is the weakest statement on which the rest of the series can stand, which is why it is the goal.
### Milestones toward and around the goal
The milestone list follows the book's own route: well-definedness of the period (Lemma 1.6), positivity of some matrix power for irreducible aperiodic chains (Proposition 1.7), finiteness of expected hitting times (Lemma 1.13), existence of a positive stationary distribution together with
$$\pi(x)\,\mathbb{E}_x(\tau_x^+) = 1$$
(Proposition 1.14), constancy of harmonic functions (Lemma 1.16), stationarity from detailed balance (Proposition 1.19), the stationary and reversible measure $\pi(x) = \deg(x)/2|E|$ of simple random walk on a graph (Examples 1.12 and 1.20), the time reversal $\hat P$ and its path-reversal identity (Proposition 1.22), and the random walks on finite groups of Section 2.6 (Propositions 2.12–2.14). From Chapter 2 the list adds the gambler's ruin formulas $\mathbb{P}_k\{X_\tau = n\} = k/n$ and $\mathbb{E}_k(\tau) = k(n-k)$ (Proposition 2.1), the coupon collector expectation $n\sum_{k\le n} 1/k$ and tail bound $e^{-c}$ (Propositions 2.3 and 2.4), and the reflection principle and the bound $\mathbb{P}_k\{\tau_0 > r\} \le 12k/\sqrt{r}$ for simple random walk on $\mathbb{Z}$ (Lemma 2.18 and Theorem 2.17).
## Significance
*The result itself.* Existence and uniqueness of $\pi$ is the pivot on which the entire quantitative theory turns: it defines the target of convergence, and the identity $\pi(x)\,\mathbb{E}_x(\tau_x^+) = 1$ ties the stationary measure to return times, which later missions use for hitting-time and cover-time results. Detailed balance is the practical tool by which stationary measures of graph and group walks are computed, and the Chapter 2 examples (gambler's ruin, coupon collecting, reflection) are the standard building blocks reused throughout the book — the coupon collector bound, for instance, is exactly the estimate behind the $n \log n + cn$ analysis of the top-to-random shuffle in a later mission of this series.
*Formalizing it.* Mathlib currently has no theory of finite Markov chains: no stochastic-matrix predicate, no stationary distribution, no periodicity, no hitting times. Everything proved in this mission is new formal mathematics, and the definition layer published here (`mm_basic`, `mm_path`, `mm_classical`) is the shared foundation that all twelve subsequent missions of the series import. All results are classical and have textbook proofs; none has a machine-checked proof.
## Difficulty
The delicate point is the existence proof. The natural first idea — extract $\pi$ from an eigenvector of $P^{\mathsf T}$ for eigenvalue $1$, or invoke a fixed-point theorem — either does not give positivity and nonnegativity without further work, or uses compactness machinery (Brouwer) that is unavailable. The book's proof instead builds $\tilde\pi(y) = \mathbb{E}_z(\text{visits to } y \text{ before } \tau_z^+)$ and verifies $\tilde\pi P = \tilde\pi$ by reindexing trajectory sums; formalizing it requires managing infinite series of path sums (summability from the geometric tail bound of Lemma 1.13, exchanging `tsum` with finite sums, splitting a trajectory at its last step). The uniqueness half is linear algebra via constancy of harmonic functions (Lemma 1.16), which is elementary but requires a maximum-principle argument over a finite state space. The reflection principle and Theorem 2.17 are finite combinatorics on $\pm 1$ paths — the bijection is easy to describe and fiddly to implement.
## Formalization scope
States form a `Fintype` with decidable equality; chains are `Matrix V V ℝ` with the row-stochasticity predicate `IsStochastic`; distributions are functions `V → ℝ` with the predicate `IsDist`. Everything is distribution-side: no probability space or measure theory is used. The period is formalized as $\sup\{d : d \mid t \text{ for all } t \in \mathcal{T}(x)\}$, which equals $\gcd \mathcal{T}(x)$ when $\mathcal{T}(x) \neq \varnothing$ and takes the junk value $0$ otherwise. Expectations of hitting times are `tsum`s of tail probabilities, with the usual junk value $0$ for non-summable families — the statements are arranged (e.g. multiplicatively, $\pi(x)\cdot\mathbb{E}_x(\tau_x^+) = 1$) so that junk values cannot make them vacuously true. Existence statements carry a `Nonempty V` hypothesis; irreducibility on the empty space is vacuous, and without nonemptiness the goal would be false, not trivial. The coupon collector and the walk on $\mathbb{Z}$ are presented directly by their driving randomness (uniform draws `Fin t → Fin n`, uniform sign strings `Fin r → Bool`), so those probabilities are elementary counting; in particular the reflection principle is stated as an equality of cardinalities of sets of sign strings — this is equivalent to the probabilistic statement because all $2^r$ strings are equally likely.
Contributions welcome beyond the milestone list: `simp` lemmas for the definition layer, the taboo-matrix representation of avoidance probabilities (useful for Lemma 1.13), and any interface lemmas connecting `pathWeight` sums to matrix powers — these will be reused by every later mission in the series.
## Selected references
- D. A. Levin, Y. Peres, E. L. Wilmer, *Markov Chains and Mixing Times*, American Mathematical Society, 2009. https://documents.epfl.ch/groups/i/ip/ipg/www/2013-2014/Random_Walks/markovmixing.pdf
- J. R. Norris, *Markov Chains*, Cambridge University Press, 1998. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511810633
- D. Aldous, J. A. Fill, *Reversible Markov Chains and Random Walks on Graphs*, 2002 (unfinished monograph). https://www.stat.berkeley.edu/~aldous/RWG/book.html
Among the most enduring mysteries in number theory is whether the primes keep producing twins — pairs like (11, 13) or (17, 19) that differ by exactly two — no matter how far out one looks. The general form was set down by Alphonse de Polignac in 1849, and the first deep theorem came from Viggo Brun in 1915, who proved that the reciprocals of the twin primes converge to a finite value, now called Brun's constant; in doing so he invented modern sieve theory and showed that twins must thin out even if there are infinitely many. Hardy and Littlewood went further, conjecturing a precise density of about 2C₂·x/(ln x)² for the count of twins below x. For nearly a century the infinitude itself stood untouched, until Yitang Zhang's stunning announcement on 17 April 2013 that some gap below 70 million recurs infinitely often — the first finite bound ever proved. A Polymath collaboration led by Terence Tao, together with James Maynard's independent multidimensional sieve, soon drove that bound down to 246, where it still stands. Closing the gap all the way to 2 — the twin prime conjecture itself — remains open. This mission states it cleanly: the set of primes p for which p + 2 is also prime is infinite.
Congruent Numbers — Tunnell's Criterion (Even Case)Open Problem
Which whole numbers are the area of a right triangle with rational sides? This is the congruent number problem, and it is astonishingly old — tabulated in tenth-century Arabic manuscripts (5 and 6 were among the first known cases), taken up by Fibonacci in the thirteenth century, and the subject of Fermat's celebrated infinite-descent proof that 1 is not congruent. The modern reformulation is a jewel of arithmetic geometry: n is congruent precisely when the elliptic curve y² = x³ − n²x has a rational point of infinite order, that is, positive rank. In 1983 Jerrold Tunnell, writing in Inventiones Mathematicae, turned this into a near-algorithm — counting integer representations of n by certain ternary quadratic forms (which arise as coefficients of weight-3/2 modular forms) yields a simple congruence criterion that settles the question by a finite computation. The catch, and the reason the problem remains officially open, is that the sufficiency of Tunnell's criterion rests on the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer conjecture, itself a Millennium Prize Problem. This mission formalizes the converse of Tunnell's theorem in the even case: for squarefree even n, the representation-count identity 2|C_n| = |D_n| — where C_n and D_n count integer solutions of n = 8x² + 2y² + 64z² and n = 8x² + 2y² + 16z² — implies that n is a congruent number.
Congruent Numbers — Tunnell's Criterion (Odd Case)Open Problem
Which whole numbers are the area of a right triangle with rational sides? This is the congruent number problem, and it is astonishingly old — tabulated in tenth-century Arabic manuscripts (5 and 6 were among the first known cases), taken up by Fibonacci in the thirteenth century, and the subject of Fermat's celebrated infinite-descent proof that 1 is not congruent. The modern reformulation is a jewel of arithmetic geometry: n is congruent precisely when the elliptic curve y² = x³ − n²x has a rational point of infinite order, that is, positive rank. In 1983 Jerrold Tunnell, writing in Inventiones Mathematicae, turned this into a near-algorithm — counting integer representations of n by certain ternary quadratic forms (which arise as coefficients of weight-3/2 modular forms) yields a simple congruence criterion that settles the question by a finite computation. The catch, and the reason the problem remains officially open, is that the sufficiency of Tunnell's criterion rests on the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer conjecture, itself a Millennium Prize Problem. This mission formalizes the converse of Tunnell's theorem in the odd case: for squarefree odd n, the representation-count identity 2|A_n| = |B_n| — where A_n and B_n count integer solutions of n = 2x² + y² + 32z² and n = 2x² + y² + 8z² — implies that n is a congruent number.
That the prime numbers, thinning out as they climb yet never quite vanishing, should nonetheless contain arithmetic progressions of every finite length is one of the most celebrated discoveries of twenty-first-century mathematics. Ben Green and Terence Tao proved it in 2004 (published in the Annals of Mathematics in 2008), resolving a question whose roots reach back to Lagrange and Waring around 1770 and which had crystallized in the Erdős–Turán conjecture. The primes have density zero, so Szemerédi's theorem — which guarantees long progressions only in positive-density sets — does not apply directly; the genius of the proof was a transference principle extending Szemerédi's theorem to sets sitting densely inside a 'pseudorandom' host, built from the sieve ideas of Goldston, Pintz, and Yıldırım. The result was a centerpiece of the citation for Tao's 2006 Fields Medal and opened a whole industry, including the Tao–Ziegler extension to polynomial progressions. Unusually for a headline problem, this theorem is already proved — which makes it an ideal flagship formalization mission: a deep, decomposable argument whose pieces, from Szemerédi's theorem to the transference principle, the community can rebuild and verify in Lean.
In a 1999 Vienna doctoral thesis, Gerhard Zauner conjectured that in every finite dimension d one can find d² unit vectors in complex d-space that are mutually as spread out as possible — any two sharing the same squared overlap 1/(d+1). Such a configuration, a symmetric informationally complete positive operator-valued measure (SIC-POVM), is the optimal minimal measurement for reconstructing an unknown quantum state, which is why the idea was rediscovered and named by Renes, Blume-Kohout, Scott, and Caves in 2004 and became central to quantum tomography, quantum cryptography, and the QBist reading of quantum mechanics. Geometrically these are maximal sets of complex equiangular lines; physically they are the most efficient quantum measurements; and, remarkably, they appear to be governed by deep number theory — recent work by Appleby, Flammia, Kopp, and others ties exact SICs to Stark units and Hilbert's twelfth problem on explicit class field theory. Exact solutions have been hand-built in scores of dimensions and numerical ones found in every dimension checked, yet a general existence proof remains out of reach. Formalizing Zauner's conjecture gives this problem — straddling quantum information, geometry, and algebraic number theory — a precise shared target.
A Hadamard matrix is a square array of +1s and −1s whose rows are mutually orthogonal — equivalently, one whose determinant attains the absolute maximum that Jacques Hadamard proved in 1893 any ±1 matrix can reach. The story opens earlier, with James Joseph Sylvester's 1867 doubling construction producing such matrices in every power-of-two order; Hadamard himself added orders 12 and 20. The conjecture bearing his name asserts that a Hadamard matrix exists for every order divisible by four. Raymond Paley's 1933 construction from finite fields settled vast new families, and computer searches filled stubborn gaps — beginning with order 92 at JPL in 1962 and reaching order 428 only in 2005, after which 668 became the smallest order whose existence is still unknown. Far from a curiosity, these matrices are workhorses of applied mathematics, underpinning error-correcting codes (the Reed–Muller code that sharpened Mariner spacecraft imagery), spread-spectrum and CDMA signal design, optimal statistical designs of experiments, and coded-aperture spectroscopy. Settling the conjecture would close a 130-year-old gap where combinatorics, number theory, and design theory meet.
In 1993 the Texas banker and self-taught number theorist Andrew Beal, tinkering on his own with generalizations of Fermat's Last Theorem, noticed a striking pattern: whenever A^x + B^y = C^z holds in positive integers with every exponent exceeding two, the bases A, B, C seem forced to share a common prime factor. Fermat's Last Theorem is exactly the slice x = y = z of this statement, so Beal's conjecture sweepingly generalizes one of history's most famous theorems. Beal backed his question with money, raising the prize from $5,000 in 1997 to $1,000,000, now held in trust by the American Mathematical Society. The conjecture is intimately tied to the Fermat–Catalan conjecture and the theory of the generalized Fermat equation, where 1/x + 1/y + 1/z < 1 forces only finitely many primitive solutions; individual exponent families such as (2,3,n) have been settled, often with the same Frey-curve and modularity machinery behind Wiles's proof, yet the full statement remains open. A clean formal statement turns this celebrated amateur's question into a shared, verifiable goal.
Formulated in 1985 by Joseph Oesterlé and David Masser as an arithmetic distillation of Szpiro's conjecture on elliptic curves, the abc conjecture makes a deceptively simple claim about coprime triples with a + b = c: the three numbers cannot all be built from many repeated small primes at once, so c can only rarely exceed rad(abc)^(1+ε). Dorian Goldfeld called it 'the most important unsolved problem in Diophantine analysis,' and for good reason — a single proof would cascade through number theory, delivering Fermat's Last Theorem for all large exponents almost for free, along with Roth's theorem, the Mordell–Faltings theorem, the Fermat–Catalan conjecture, infinitely many non-Wieferich primes, and all but finitely many counterexamples to Beal's conjecture. Since 2012 Shinichi Mochizuki has claimed a proof via inter-universal Teichmüller theory, published in 2021, but the community has not accepted it: in 2018 Peter Scholze and Jakob Stix identified a gap they regarded as fatal. A precise formal statement gives everyone a shared, machine-checkable target around which to organize verified progress.