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Stochastic Systems

166 missions · 64 completed

The mathematics of systems that evolve under randomness, modeled as families of random variables indexed by time — from Markov chains and martingales to Brownian motion and stochastic differential equations. The field spans stochastic analysis, filtering and optimal control under uncertainty, ergodic behavior of random dynamics, and concentration of measure, with models reaching across physics, engineering, finance, and biology.

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Dynamical SystemsOperations Research·Captain: mikedeng1

Dynamics of Stochastic Approximation Algorithms 5: If V(Λ) Has Empty Interior for a Lyapunov Function V, Every Internally Chain Transitive Set Lies in ΛResearch Paper

Motivation

A stochastic approximation algorithm is a recursion xn+1=xn+γn+1(F(xn)+Un+1)x_{n+1}=x_n+\gamma_{n+1}\big(F(x_n)+U_{n+1}\big)xn+1​=xn​+γn+1​(F(xn​)+Un+1​) with decreasing steps γn\gamma_nγn​ and noise UnU_nUn​. Stochastic gradient descent, the Robbins–Monro procedure, reinforcement-learning updates and learning dynamics in games all have this form. The ODE method compares such a recursion with the deterministic dynamics x˙=F(x)\dot x=F(x)x˙=F(x). Benaïm's lecture notes (Séminaire de Probabilités XXXIII, 1999) do this in two steps. First, the limit set of the interpolated process is internally chain transitive for the semiflow of FFF (Theorem 5.7, the subject of mission 1 of this series). Second, internally chain transitive sets are located using properties of the dynamics alone.

The most common tool in the second step is a Lyapounov function: a function that decreases strictly along every trajectory outside a set Λ\LambdaΛ and is constant on Λ\LambdaΛ. Proposition 6.4 of the notes states exactly when such a function forces every internally chain transitive set into Λ\LambdaΛ. It is the step behind the convergence of stochastic gradient algorithms to critical points (Corollary 6.7) and behind convergence results for learning in potential games.

Timeline.

  • Conley (Isolated Invariant Sets and the Morse Index, CBMS 38, 1978) introduced chain recurrence and the attractor–repeller description of it.
  • Benaïm and Hirsch (J. Dyn. Diff. Eq. 8, 1996) identified limit sets of asymptotic pseudotrajectories with internally chain transitive sets.
  • Benaïm (SIAM J. Control Optim. 34, 1996) developed the dynamical-systems approach to stochastic approximation built on these notions.
  • Bowen (J. Differential Equations 18, 1975) characterized chain transitivity by the absence of proper attractors, the content of Proposition 5.3 of the notes.
  • The 1999 notes state the Lyapounov criterion in the form used here, for semiflows on arbitrary metric spaces.

Setting

Let (M,d)(M,d)(M,d) be a metric space, with no compactness or completeness assumed. A semiflow Φ\PhiΦ on MMM is a continuous map R+×M→M\mathbb R_+\times M\to MR+​×M→M, (t,x)↦Φt(x)(t,x)\mapsto\Phi_t(x)(t,x)↦Φt​(x), with Φ0=Id\Phi_0=\mathrm{Id}Φ0​=Id and Φt+s=Φt∘Φs\Phi_{t+s}=\Phi_t\circ\Phi_sΦt+s​=Φt​∘Φs​.

  • A set AAA is invariant if Φt(A)=A\Phi_t(A)=AΦt​(A)=A for every t≥0t\ge0t≥0. For an invariant Λ\LambdaΛ, the restriction Φ∣Λ\Phi|\LambdaΦ∣Λ is the semiflow Φ\PhiΦ acting on Λ\LambdaΛ.
  • For δ,T>0\delta,T>0δ,T>0, a (δ,T)(\delta,T)(δ,T)-pseudo-orbit from aaa to bbb is a list of points y0,…,yky_0,\dots,y_ky0​,…,yk​ (k≥1k\ge1k≥1) and times t0,…,tk−1≥Tt_0,\dots,t_{k-1}\ge Tt0​,…,tk−1​≥T with d(y0,a)<δd(y_0,a)<\deltad(y0​,a)<δ, d(Φtj(yj),yj+1)<δd(\Phi_{t_j}(y_j),y_{j+1})<\deltad(Φtj​​(yj​),yj+1​)<δ for j<kj<kj<k, and yk=by_k=byk​=b.
  • A set LLL is internally chain transitive if it is nonempty, compact and invariant, and for all a,b∈La,b\in La,b∈L and all δ,T>0\delta,T>0δ,T>0 there is a (δ,T)(\delta,T)(δ,T)-pseudo-orbit of Φ∣L\Phi|LΦ∣L, so with every yi∈Ly_i\in Lyi​∈L, from aaa to bbb.
  • An attractor is a nonempty compact invariant set AAA with a neighbourhood WWW on which dist(Φtx,A)→0\mathrm{dist}(\Phi_t x,A)\to0dist(Φt​x,A)→0 uniformly. Its basin is the set of points xxx with dist(Φtx,A)→0\mathrm{dist}(\Phi_t x,A)\to0dist(Φt​x,A)→0.
  • Let Λ⊂M\Lambda\subset MΛ⊂M be compact and invariant. A continuous V:M→RV:M\to\mathbb RV:M→R is a Lyapounov function for Λ\LambdaΛ if t↦V(Φt(x))t\mapsto V(\Phi_t(x))t↦V(Φt​(x)) is constant for x∈Λx\in\Lambdax∈Λ and strictly decreasing for x∉Λx\notin\Lambdax∈/Λ.

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 6.4

Let Λ\LambdaΛ be compact invariant and VVV a Lyapounov function for Λ\LambdaΛ, and assume that V(Λ)V(\Lambda)V(Λ) has empty interior in R\mathbb RR. Then for every internally chain transitive set LLL,

L⊂ΛandV∣L is constant.L\subset\Lambda\qquad\text{and}\qquad V|_L\ \text{is constant}.L⊂ΛandV∣L​ is constant.

Milestones

  1. Lemma 5.2. If UUU is open with compact closure and ΦT(U‾)⊂U\Phi_T(\overline U)\subset UΦT​(U)⊂U for some T>0T>0T>0, there is an attractor A⊂UA\subset UA⊂U whose basin contains U‾\overline UU.
  2. Proposition 5.3. For nonempty Λ\LambdaΛ: internally chain transitive   ⟺  \iff⟺ connected and internally chain recurrent   ⟺  \iff⟺ compact invariant, and Φ∣Λ\Phi|\LambdaΦ∣Λ has no proper attractor.
  3. The claim of the proof of 6.4. For LLL internally chain transitive and v∗=inf⁡LVv^*=\inf_L Vv∗=infL​V: L∩Λ≠∅L\cap\Lambda\ne\emptysetL∩Λ=∅ and v∗=inf⁡L∩ΛVv^*=\inf_{L\cap\Lambda}Vv∗=infL∩Λ​V.
  4. The sublevel step of the proof of 6.4. For every c>v∗c>v^*c>v∗ with c∉V(Λ)c\notin V(\Lambda)c∈/V(Λ), V<cV<cV<c on all of LLL.

Significance

The result. Proposition 6.4 converts a statement about real numbers, that V(Λ)V(\Lambda)V(Λ) has empty interior, into a statement about dynamics: the chain recurrent behaviour of Φ\PhiΦ is confined to Λ\LambdaΛ. With Theorem 5.7 it gives the following. If Φ\PhiΦ has such a Lyapounov function, then the limit set of any precompact asymptotic pseudotrajectory, in particular of a bounded stochastic approximation process, lies in Λ\LambdaΛ, and VVV is constant on it. When Λ\LambdaΛ is the set of equilibria and V(Λ)V(\Lambda)V(Λ) is Lebesgue-null by Sard's theorem, this is the convergence of stochastic gradient algorithms to connected sets of critical points (Corollary 6.7). Remark 6.5 gives a flow on the circle with a strict Lyapounov function, where the circle itself is internally chain transitive. So the empty-interior hypothesis cannot be removed.

Formalizing it. The result is proved, in the notes and in the earlier literature. No machine-checked version of chain recurrence for semiflows on metric spaces, Conley's attractor lemma, or Bowen's characterization of chain transitive sets is known to us. The mission therefore adds the following:

  • a formal definition layer for these notions on Mathlib's Flow;
  • formal proofs of Lemma 5.2 and Proposition 5.3, which are reused across this series (missions 1 and 6);
  • the Lyapounov criterion itself.

Difficulty

The obvious argument does not work. It runs: VVV decreases along trajectories, so along an orbit in LLL the value of VVV must settle on Λ\LambdaΛ. But points of an internally chain transitive set are joined only by pseudo-orbits. At each of the kkk jumps, VVV may increase by an amount that is small but not controlled in number, so monotonicity of VVV along true trajectories says nothing directly about LLL. Remark 6.5 shows that the conclusion is genuinely false without a condition on V(Λ)V(\Lambda)V(Λ). The difficulty is therefore global: pseudo-orbits that climb back up VVV through many small jumps must be excluded using information about the restricted semiflow Φ∣L\Phi|LΦ∣L as a whole, not the monotonicity of VVV along single trajectories. Milestones 1 and 2 are the general facts about chain transitive sets that this requires, and their own proofs involve compactness and uniform-continuity estimates over arbitrarily long pseudo-orbits.

Formalization scope

  • Representation. MMM is any MetricSpace, and the semiflow is Flow ℝ≥0 M.
  • Invariance is equality Φt(A)=A\Phi_t(A)=AΦt​(A)=A for every ttt, not inclusion.
  • Pseudo-orbits have at least one trajectory piece (k≥1k\ge1k≥1), times ≥T\ge T≥T, an exact endpoint, and, in the internal notions, all their points in the set.
  • Nonemptiness. Internally chain transitive and internally chain recurrent sets are nonempty by definition. Accordingly, Proposition 5.3 assumes Λ≠∅\Lambda\neq\emptysetΛ=∅ and Lemma 5.2 assumes U≠∅U\neq\emptysetU=∅.
  • Lyapounov function. The predicate contains the standing assumptions of its definition: Λ\LambdaΛ is compact and invariant, VVV is continuous, V(Φtx)=V(x)V(\Phi_t x)=V(x)V(Φt​x)=V(x) on Λ\LambdaΛ, and t↦V(Φtx)t\mapsto V(\Phi_t x)t↦V(Φt​x) is strictly antitone off Λ\LambdaΛ.
  • Empty interior is interior (V '' Λ) = ∅ in R\mathbb RR, not countability, finiteness or measure zero.
  • Infima are stated with IsGLB, not a real sInf.

The following formalizations are trivializing and are excluded:

  • chains with no jumps, under which every point is chain recurrent;
  • invariance as inclusion;
  • a non-strict decrease condition, under which constant functions are Lyapounov functions and the goal is false;
  • chains of Φ\PhiΦ that leave LLL, a strictly weaker notion;
  • quantifying only over limit sets instead of every internally chain transitive set.

A complete development needs elementary facts about ω-limit sets of points of a compact invariant set: they are nonempty, compact and invariant. It also needs the attractor construction A=⋂t≥0⋃s≥tΦs(U)‾A=\bigcap_{t\ge0}\overline{\bigcup_{s\ge t}\Phi_s(U)}A=⋂t≥0​⋃s≥t​Φs​(U)​ and the open sets {y:x↪δ,Ty}\{y: x\hookrightarrow_{\delta,T}y\}{y:x↪δ,T​y} used in Proposition 5.3. These are reusable for any work on Conley theory. Contributions of any of these lemmas, or of proofs of the milestones in any order, are welcome.

Selected references

  • M. Benaïm, Dynamics of Stochastic Approximation Algorithms, Séminaire de Probabilités XXXIII, Lecture Notes in Mathematics 1709, Springer, 1999, pp. 1–68. https://doi.org/10.1007/BFb0096509
  • M. Benaïm, M. W. Hirsch, Asymptotic pseudotrajectories and chain recurrent flows, with applications, J. Dynam. Differential Equations 8 (1996), 141–176. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02218613
  • M. Benaïm, A dynamical system approach to stochastic approximations, SIAM J. Control Optim. 34 (1996), 437–472. https://doi.org/10.1137/S0363012993253534
  • C. Conley, Isolated Invariant Sets and the Morse Index, CBMS Regional Conference Series in Mathematics 38, AMS, 1978. https://doi.org/10.1090/cbms/038
  • R. Bowen, ω-limit sets for Axiom A diffeomorphisms, J. Differential Equations 18 (1975), 333–339. https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-0396(75)90065-0
9 thms1 active userReviewed
Operations ResearchProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

Open Queueing Networks in Heavy Traffic: Reflected Brownian Motion Limit for the Queue Length ProcessResearch Paper

Motivation

Open networks of single-server queues with general interarrival and service distributions are the standard model of job shops, communication networks and service systems. Outside the product-form (Jackson) case their queue-length distributions are not known in closed form. When every station is close to saturation, a heavy-traffic limit replaces the network by a diffusion process. Martin I. Reiman's paper Open Queueing Networks in Heavy Traffic (Mathematics of Operations Research 9(3), 1984) proves such a limit for the vector of queue lengths of a general open network. The limit is a reflected Brownian motion on the nonnegative orthant. That process has since become the default diffusion approximation for open networks, and it is the starting point of later work on its stationary distribution and on control of networks in heavy traffic.

Timeline:

  • Iglehart and Whitt (1970a,b) proved heavy-traffic limits for a single multiple-server station and for acyclic networks, in which no customer visits a station twice.
  • Harrison (1973, 1978) treated tandem queues; the 1978 paper introduced reflected Brownian motion on the nonnegative orthant as the diffusion limit.
  • Harrison and Reiman (1981a, Ann. Probab. 9:302–308) constructed reflected Brownian motion on the orthant through a continuous reflection mapping. That paper is the source of Lemma 1 here.

(These attributions follow Reiman's own account, pp. 441–442 of the 1984 paper.)

  • Reiman (1984) proved the limit for general open networks with Markovian routing (Theorem 1). The paper also proves a limit for sojourn times along fixed routes (Theorem 2).

Setting

There are KKK single-server stations and a nonempty set J⊆{1,…,K}\mathcal J\subseteq\{1,\dots,K\}J⊆{1,…,K} of stations that receive customers from outside. The primitives are mutually independent sequences of IID random variables: interarrival times uki>0u_k^i>0uki​>0 (k∈Jk\in\mathcal Jk∈J), service times vki>0v_k^i>0vki​>0, and routing indicators ϕki∈{0,1,…,K}\phi_k^i\in\{0,1,\dots,K\}ϕki​∈{0,1,…,K}. When the iiith customer served at station kkk finishes, it moves to station ϕki\phi_k^iϕki​, or leaves if ϕki=0\phi_k^i=0ϕki​=0. The parameters are the service rates μk=(Evk1)−1\mu_k=(E v_k^1)^{-1}μk​=(Evk1​)−1, the service-time variances sk=var⁡vk1s_k=\operatorname{var} v_k^1sk​=varvk1​, the arrival rates λk=(Euk1)−1\lambda_k=(E u_k^1)^{-1}λk​=(Euk1​)−1 (with λk=0\lambda_k=0λk​=0 for k∉Jk\notin\mathcal Jk∈/J), and the interarrival variances ak=var⁡uk1a_k=\operatorname{var} u_k^1ak​=varuk1​. The routing matrix P=(pkj)P=(p_{kj})P=(pkj​), pkj=P{ϕk1=j}p_{kj}=P\{\phi_k^1=j\}pkj​=P{ϕk1​=j}, has spectral radius strictly less than one, so every customer eventually leaves.

Let Ak(t)A_k(t)Ak​(t) be the number of exogenous arrivals to station kkk by time ttt, and Sk(t)S_k(t)Sk​(t) the number of service completions at kkk in ttt units of busy time. Let S^k(t)=∑i≤Sk(t)eϕki−Sk(t)ek\hat S_k(t)=\sum_{i\le S_k(t)}e_{\phi_k^i}-S_k(t)e_kS^k​(t)=∑i≤Sk​(t)​eϕki​​−Sk​(t)ek​, with e0=0e_0=0e0​=0. The queue length Q(t)∈Z+KQ(t)\in\mathbb Z_+^KQ(t)∈Z+K​ and the busy time B(t)B(t)B(t) are the unique solution of

Q(t)=A(t)+∑k=1KS^k(Bk(t)),Bk(t)=∫0t1{Qk(s)>0} ds,B(0)=0.Q(t)=A(t)+\sum_{k=1}^K\hat S_k(B_k(t)),\qquad B_k(t)=\int_0^t1_{\{Q_k(s)>0\}}\,ds,\qquad B(0)=0 .Q(t)=A(t)+k=1∑K​S^k​(Bk​(t)),Bk​(t)=∫0t​1{Qk​(s)>0}​ds,B(0)=0.

A sequence of such networks, indexed by nnn, shares KKK, J\mathcal JJ and PPP. Its parameters μ(n),s(n),λ(n),a(n)\mu(n),s(n),\lambda(n),a(n)μ(n),s(n),λ(n),a(n) converge to finite limits μ,s,λ,a\mu,s,\lambda,aμ,s,λ,a. With ν(n)=λ(n)+μ(n)P\nu(n)=\lambda(n)+\mu(n)Pν(n)=λ(n)+μ(n)P, the heavy-traffic condition is

ck(n)=n (νk(n)−μk(n))→ck.c_k(n)=\sqrt n\,(\nu_k(n)-\mu_k(n))\to c_k .ck​(n)=n​(νk​(n)−μk​(n))→ck​.

Moments of order 2+ϵ2+\epsilon2+ϵ of the interarrival and service times are bounded uniformly in nnn. The scaled queue length is Zn(t)=n−1/2Qn(nt)Z^n(t)=n^{-1/2}Q^n(nt)Zn(t)=n−1/2Qn(nt), 0≤t≤10\le t\le10≤t≤1.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 1

Let ξ\xiξ be a Brownian motion with drift ccc and covariance matrix A\mathcal AA, where

Aii=λi3ai+μi3si(1−2pii)+∑jμjpji(1−pji+pjiμj2sj),\mathcal A_{ii}=\lambda_i^3a_i+\mu_i^3s_i(1-2p_{ii})+\sum_j\mu_jp_{ji}(1-p_{ji}+p_{ji}\mu_j^2s_j),Aii​=λi3​ai​+μi3​si​(1−2pii​)+j∑​μj​pji​(1−pji​+pji​μj2​sj​), Aij=−[μi3sipij+μj3sjpji+∑kμkpkipkj(1−μk2sk)](i≠j).\mathcal A_{ij}=-\Big[\mu_i^3s_ip_{ij}+\mu_j^3s_jp_{ji}+\sum_k\mu_kp_{ki}p_{kj}(1-\mu_k^2s_k)\Big]\quad(i\ne j).Aij​=−[μi3​si​pij​+μj3​sj​pji​+k∑​μk​pki​pkj​(1−μk2​sk​)](i=j).

Let Z=ϕ(ξ)Z=\phi(\xi)Z=ϕ(ξ) be its reflection with reflection matrix I−PI-PI−P. Then

Zn⇒Zin D[0,1] (Skorohod topology).Z^n\Rightarrow Z\quad\text{in } D[0,1]\text{ (Skorohod topology)}.Zn⇒Zin D[0,1] (Skorohod topology).

The goal fixes no constants beyond the parameters' limits. It is stated for every network sequence satisfying (20)–(26).

Milestones

The milestones follow the paper's proof, in order:

  • the existence and uniqueness claim for (1)–(3);
  • the representation Q=X~+Y(I−P)Q=\tilde X+Y(I-P)Q=X~+Y(I−P) (Eq. (13));
  • the least-element map fff (Proposition 1);
  • the reflection mapping ϕ\phiϕ (Lemma 1) and f=ϕf=\phif=ϕ on continuous paths (Proposition 2);
  • the netput limit ζn⇒ζ\zeta^n\Rightarrow\zetaζn⇒ζ (Proposition 3);
  • stochastic boundedness of ZnZ^nZn (Lemma 6);
  • vanishing scaled idleness n−1Ikn(n)→0n^{-1}I^n_k(n)\to0n−1Ikn​(n)→0 (Proposition 4);
  • the centred limit ζ~n⇒ζ\tilde\zeta^n\Rightarrow\zetaζ~​n⇒ζ (Proposition 5).

Significance

Theorem 1 justifies the diffusion approximation of a heavily loaded open network. Writing Qn(t)≈n Z(t/n)Q^n(t)\approx\sqrt n\,Z(t/n)Qn(t)≈n​Z(t/n) reduces questions about the network to questions about one reflected Brownian motion, whose data are explicit functions of the first two moments of the primitives and of the routing matrix. The same limit, with Lemma 2, gives the paper's Theorem 2 on sojourn times. It is the model case for the multiclass heavy-traffic theory that followed.

The result has been proved since 1984. No machine-checked version exists. The mission's contributions would be:

  • a formal statement of the network, of its Harrison representation, and of weak convergence in DDD;
  • a formal proof of the reflection-mapping facts (Proposition 1, Lemma 1, Proposition 2), which are deterministic and reusable;
  • eventually, a formal proof of the full limit theorem.

Difficulty

The obvious route applies a functional central limit theorem to QnQ^nQn directly. That fails because QnQ^nQn is not a sum of independent terms: each station serves only while its queue is nonempty, so the service process is evaluated at the random busy time Bk(t)B_k(t)Bk​(t), which depends on the whole network. The proof therefore has to separate the netput process, which obeys a central limit theorem, from the regulator YYY. It then has to show that the random time change Bkn(nt)/nB^n_k(nt)/nBkn​(nt)/n converges to the identity, i.e. that idleness vanishes on the diffusion scale. Weak convergence must also be transported through a reflection map that is defined on all of DDD but is known to be continuous only at continuous paths.

Formalization scope

The Lean development uses the following conventions:

  • Stations are Fin K, vectors are row vectors Fin K → ℝ, and a row vector times a matrix is Matrix.vecMul.
  • A routing indicator lives in Fin (K+1), with 0 meaning "leaves" and j.succ meaning station jjj.
  • The primitives are mutually independent (iIndep of their σ-algebras), IID within each sequence, everywhere positive and square integrable.
  • "Spectral radius <1<1<1" is stated as Pm→0P^m\to0Pm→0.
  • (Qn,Bn)(Q^n,B^n)(Qn,Bn) is any pair solving (1)–(3) almost surely, with measurable paths so that (2) is a Lebesgue integral.
  • The networks are indexed by ℕ; (25)–(26) are imposed for n≥1n\ge1n≥1, (22) and (26) over k∈Jk\in\mathcal Jk∈J, and J\mathcal JJ is the same for all nnn.
  • Brownian motion with drift ccc and covariance A\mathcal AA lives on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞). It is defined by continuity, ξ(0)=0\xi(0)=0ξ(0)=0, independent increments, and the Gaussian characteristic function of increments.
  • ZZZ is the reflection of ξ\xiξ in the sense of (14)–(17).
  • Weak convergence in DDD is stated in Skorohod-representation form: a coupling with almost-sure J1_11​ convergence on [0,1][0,1][0,1]. This form accommodates a separate probability space for each nnn.

Added hypotheses, each implicit on the page:

  1. The existence item assumes Uk(l),Vk(l)→∞U_k(l),V_k(l)\to\inftyUk​(l),Vk​(l)→∞ at the sample point; without it the maxima defining Ak(t)A_k(t)Ak​(t) and Sk(t)S_k(t)Sk​(t) need not exist.
  2. Solutions of (1)–(3) have measurable paths.

No positivity hypothesis on the limits μk\mu_kμk​ is added: (25) and (26) bound the means of the service and interarrival times, so the limits are positive.

The statement is not to be weakened. Ruled out are:

  • convergence of finite-dimensional distributions only;
  • a single network without the index nnn;
  • uniform convergence used in place of the Skorohod topology without the coupling;
  • a Brownian motion that is not required to have independent Gaussian increments.

Each of these is a different theorem.

Useful contributions, all reusable beyond this mission:

  • the deterministic reflection-map results;
  • Donsker-type theorems for renewal counting processes in DDD;
  • the random time-change lemma (Billingsley);
  • the continuous mapping theorem in coupling form.

Selected references

  • M. I. Reiman, Open Queueing Networks in Heavy Traffic, Mathematics of Operations Research 9(3):441–458, 1984. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.9.3.441
  • J. M. Harrison and M. I. Reiman, Reflected Brownian Motion on an Orthant, Annals of Probability 9:302–308, 1981 (cited in Reiman 1984 as [6]).
  • J. M. Harrison, The Diffusion Approximation for Tandem Queues in Heavy Traffic, Advances in Applied Probability 10:886–905, 1978 (Reiman 1984, [5]).
  • J. M. Harrison, The Heavy Traffic Approximation for Single Server Queues in Series, Journal of Applied Probability 10:613–629, 1973 (Reiman 1984, [4]).
  • D. L. Iglehart and W. Whitt, Multiple Channel Queues in Heavy Traffic, I and II: Sequences, Networks, and Batches, Advances in Applied Probability 2:150–177 and 355–364, 1970 (Reiman 1984, [8], [9]).
  • P. Billingsley, Convergence of Probability Measures, Wiley, New York, 1968 (Reiman 1984, [1]).
13 thms1 active userReviewed
Operations ResearchProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

Fundamentals of Queueing Theory IX: Kingman's Upper Bound on the G/G/1 Queue WaitTextbook

Motivation

The single-server queue with general independent interarrival and service times, the G/G/1 queue, is the basic model of a congested resource: a machine, a link, a checkout. For Markovian arrivals or services the mean wait has a closed form (the Pollaczek–Khintchine formula for M/G/1, the geometric law for G/M/1). For general distributions it has none, and the mean wait depends on the whole distributions of the interarrival and service times, not only on their moments. Capacity planning still needs numbers. Bounds that use only the first two moments are therefore the practical tool. They say how bad congestion can be for any queue with a given arrival rate, service rate and variabilities, and they become exact as the traffic intensity approaches one.

This mission formalizes Chapter 7, §7.1 of Gross, Shortle, Thompson and Harris, Fundamentals of Queueing Theory (4th ed., Wiley 2008, DOI 10.1002/9781118625651), together with the heavy-traffic Theorem 7.1 of §7.2.3.

Timeline. Lindley (Proc. Cambridge Philos. Soc., 1952) derived the recursion for successive waiting times and characterized the stationary law. Kingman (Proc. Cambridge Philos. Soc., 1961, 1962) proved the heavy-traffic exponential limit. In "Some inequalities for the queue GI/G/1" (Biometrika, 1962) he proved the two-moment upper bound. Marshall (1968) derived further moment relations and bounds (Operations Research, 1968). Marchal (Operations Research, 1978) gave the lower bound (7.14).

Setting

A G/G/1 queue is specified by two probability laws on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞): the law AAA of an interarrival time TTT and the law BBB of a service time SSS. Both have finite second moments, and

E[T]=1λ,E[S]=1μ,σA2=Var[T],σB2=Var[S],ρ=λμ.E[T] = \frac1\lambda,\quad E[S] = \frac1\mu,\quad \sigma_A^2 = \mathrm{Var}[T],\quad \sigma_B^2 = \mathrm{Var}[S],\quad \rho = \frac{\lambda}{\mu}.E[T]=λ1​,E[S]=μ1​,σA2​=Var[T],σB2​=Var[S],ρ=μλ​.

The pairs (S(n),T(n))(S^{(n)}, T^{(n)})(S(n),T(n)) are independent and identically distributed, and S(n)S^{(n)}S(n) is independent of T(n)T^{(n)}T(n). Customers are served first come, first served. The line delay Wq(n)W_q^{(n)}Wq(n)​ of the nnnth customer obeys Lindley's recursion

Wq(n+1)=max⁡(0, Wq(n)+U(n)),U(n)=S(n)−T(n),(7.1)W_q^{(n+1)} = \max\bigl(0,\ W_q^{(n)} + U^{(n)}\bigr), \qquad U^{(n)} = S^{(n)} - T^{(n)}, \tag{7.1}Wq(n+1)​=max(0, Wq(n)​+U(n)),U(n)=S(n)−T(n),(7.1)

and Wq(n)W_q^{(n)}Wq(n)​ is independent of (S(n),T(n))(S^{(n)}, T^{(n)})(S(n),T(n)). The idle gap X(n)=−min⁡(0,Wq(n)+U(n))X^{(n)} = -\min(0, W_q^{(n)} + U^{(n)})X(n)=−min(0,Wq(n)​+U(n)) is the time between the nnnth departure and the next start of service.

The queue is stationary when the law ν\nuν of Wq(n)W_q^{(n)}Wq(n)​ does not depend on nnn, that is, when one step of (7.1) maps ν\nuν to itself. The mean stationary line delay is Wq=E[Wq(n)]=∫w dν(w)W_q = E[W_q^{(n)}] = \int w\,d\nu(w)Wq​=E[Wq(n)​]=∫wdν(w). In the Lean development these objects are IsGG1Input A B lam mu, lindley, idleX, IsStationaryWaitLaw A B ν and meanWait ν, in the namespace QueueingFundamentals.Bounds.

Formalization targets

Goal: Kingman's upper bound (7.13)

For every stationary G/G/1 queue with ρ<1\rho < 1ρ<1, WqW_qWq​ is finite and

Wq≤λ(σA2+σB2)2(1−ρ).W_q \le \frac{\lambda(\sigma_A^2 + \sigma_B^2)}{2(1-\rho)}.Wq​≤2(1−ρ)λ(σA2​+σB2​)​.

Milestones

  • the idle-gap identity E[X]=−E[U]=1/λ−1/μE[X] = -E[U] = 1/\lambda - 1/\muE[X]=−E[U]=1/λ−1/μ (7.4), and the mean-wait formula (7.7)
Wq=E[X2]−E[U2]2E[U];W_q = \frac{E[X^2] - E[U^2]}{2E[U]};Wq​=2E[U]E[X2]−E[U2]​;
  • the variance of the interdeparture time D=S(n+1)+X(n)D = S^{(n+1)} + X^{(n)}D=S(n+1)+X(n) (7.12): Var[D]=2σB2+σA2−2Wq(1/λ−1/μ)\mathrm{Var}[D] = 2\sigma_B^2 + \sigma_A^2 - 2W_q(1/\lambda - 1/\mu)Var[D]=2σB2​+σA2​−2Wq​(1/λ−1/μ);
  • Marchal's lower bound (7.14), Wq≥(λ2σB2+ρ(ρ−2))/(2λ(1−ρ))W_q \ge (\lambda^2\sigma_B^2 + \rho(\rho-2))/(2\lambda(1-\rho))Wq​≥(λ2σB2​+ρ(ρ−2))/(2λ(1−ρ));
  • the distributional lower bound Wq≥r0W_q \ge r_0Wq​≥r0​, with r0r_0r0​ the unique nonnegative root of f(z)=z−∫−z∞[1−U(t)] dtf(z) = z - \int_{-z}^\infty [1 - U(t)]\,dtf(z)=z−∫−z∞​[1−U(t)]dt and U(t)U(t)U(t) the CDF of S−TS - TS−T ((7.15), (7.16));
  • the two-sided estimate (7.17), max⁡(0,r0,λ2σB2+ρ(ρ−2)2λ(1−ρ))≤Wq≤λ(σA2+σB2)2(1−ρ)\max\bigl(0, r_0, \tfrac{\lambda^2\sigma_B^2 + \rho(\rho-2)}{2\lambda(1-\rho)}\bigr) \le W_q \le \tfrac{\lambda(\sigma_A^2+\sigma_B^2)}{2(1-\rho)}max(0,r0​,2λ(1−ρ)λ2σB2​+ρ(ρ−2)​)≤Wq​≤2(1−ρ)λ(σA2​+σB2​)​;
  • Theorem 7.1 (heavy traffic): for a sequence of G/G/1 queues with ρj→1\rho_j \to 1ρj​→1, αj=−E[Sj−Tj]\alpha_j = -E[S_j - T_j]αj​=−E[Sj​−Tj​] and βj2=Var[Sj−Tj]\beta_j^2 = \mathrm{Var}[S_j - T_j]βj2​=Var[Sj​−Tj​], under convergence of the input laws, Var[S−T]>0\mathrm{Var}[S - T] > 0Var[S−T]>0 and uniformly bounded (2+δ)(2+\delta)(2+δ)-moments,
2αjβj2 Wq,j→dExp(1).\frac{2\alpha_j}{\beta_j^2}\,W_{q,j} \xrightarrow{d} \mathrm{Exp}(1).βj2​2αj​​Wq,j​d​Exp(1).

The goal is (7.13) rather than the stronger (7.17) because it depends only on the first two moments of the input.

Significance

Kingman's bound is the most widely used performance estimate for single-server queues. It needs no distributional form, only two means and two variances. It yields the "Kingman formula" approximation used across manufacturing and service operations, and it is asymptotically exact as ρ→1\rho \to 1ρ→1 (Theorem 7.1). The departure variance (7.12) drives the decomposition approximations for networks of §7.3. The heavy-traffic theorem is the entry point to diffusion approximations of queues.

All results here are proved in the literature (Theorem 7.1 is stated in the book without proof). This mission produces the first machine-checked versions. As far as a search of the platform shows, none of these statements, and no stationary Lindley recursion, has been formalized. The substrate it needs is reusable for any mission on G/G/1, G/G/c or random walks: stationary laws of a recursion on distributions, moment identities for max⁡(0,⋅)\max(0,\cdot)max(0,⋅), and convergence in distribution.

Difficulty

The book's derivation squares (7.3) and takes expectations, using E[(Wq(n+1))2]=E[(Wq(n))2]E[(W_q^{(n+1)})^2] = E[(W_q^{(n)})^2]E[(Wq(n+1)​)2]=E[(Wq(n)​)2]. That step is valid only if the stationary wait has a finite second moment. It is not assumed here and fails in general: with finite second moments of SSS and TTT the stationary wait has a finite mean, but its second moment is finite only if E[S3]<∞E[S^3] < \inftyE[S3]<∞. So the moment identity (7.7) cannot be obtained by cancelling second moments. A truncation or limiting argument is needed, and even the finiteness of WqW_qWq​ has to be proved rather than assumed. The lower bound Wq≥r0W_q \ge r_0Wq​≥r0​ further needs a Jensen argument for the conditional mean of one Lindley step. Theorem 7.1 needs a uniform-integrability argument across a sequence of queues.

Formalization scope

Conventions committed to in Lean:

  • laws, not random variables: AAA, BBB and the stationary law ν\nuν are Measure ℝ; independence of Wq(n),S(n),T(n)W_q^{(n)}, S^{(n)}, T^{(n)}Wq(n)​,S(n),T(n) (and S(n+1)S^{(n+1)}S(n+1) for DDD) is the product measure;
  • the input laws are probability measures on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞) with finite second moments (MemLp id 2), E[T]=1/λE[T] = 1/\lambdaE[T]=1/λ, E[S]=1/μE[S] = 1/\muE[S]=1/μ, λ,μ>0\lambda, \mu > 0λ,μ>0, ρ=λ/μ<1\rho = \lambda/\mu < 1ρ=λ/μ<1;
  • stationarity is invariance of the whole law ν\nuν under one step of (7.1), not equality of means;
  • WqW_qWq​, the variances (Mathlib variance) and f1f_1f1​ are Lebesgue integrals. Every theorem therefore asserts, as part of its conclusion, that ν\nuν has a finite mean, and none assumes a finite second moment of ν\nuν;
  • U(t)U(t)U(t) is Mathlib's cdf of the law of S−TS - TS−T;
  • convergence in distribution is convergence of ∫g\int g∫g for all bounded continuous ggg, and Exp(1)\mathrm{Exp}(1)Exp(1) is expMeasure 1.

Closed forms carried by the statements: (7.4), (7.7), (7.12), (7.13), (7.14) and (7.17) exactly as printed, and the scaling 2αj/βj22\alpha_j/\beta_j^22αj​/βj2​ of Theorem 7.1.

Stating (7.13) with WqW_qWq​, E[X2]E[X^2]E[X2] or the idle probability as free real numbers constrained by (7.7) would reduce it to algebra. Here WqW_qWq​ is always the mean of a stationary law of the queue.

Not formalized: (7.5) and (7.8), which need the idle-period law III and the arrival-point probability q0q_0q0​ as separate objects, and the multiserver bounds of §7.1.3. Proofs of any milestone are welcome, as are reusable lemmas on stationary laws of Lindley's recursion (existence, uniqueness, and finiteness of the mean under E[S2]<∞E[S^2] < \inftyE[S2]<∞).

Selected references

  • D. Gross, J. F. Shortle, J. M. Thompson, C. M. Harris, Fundamentals of Queueing Theory, 4th ed., Wiley, 2008. https://doi.org/10.1002/9781118625651
  • D. V. Lindley, The theory of queues with a single server, Math. Proc. Cambridge Philos. Soc. 48 (1952)
  • J. F. C. Kingman, The single server queue in heavy traffic, Math. Proc. Cambridge Philos. Soc. 57 (1961)
  • J. F. C. Kingman, Some inequalities for the queue GI/G/1, Biometrika 49 (1962)
  • K. T. Marshall, Some inequalities in queuing, Operations Research 16 (1968)
  • W. G. Marchal, Some simpler bounds on the mean queuing time, Operations Research 26 (1978)
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Dynamic Scheduling of a System with Two Parallel Servers in Heavy Traffic with Resource Pooling: The Threshold Policy Is Asymptotically OptimalResearch Paper

Motivation

Many service systems route several classes of work to servers with overlapping skills: call centers with cross-trained agents, manufacturing cells with flexible machines, computing clusters with heterogeneous processors. Choosing which server works on which class at each moment is a dynamic scheduling problem. Exact optimal policies are out of reach except in toy cases, so heavy-traffic theory replaces the queueing system by a Brownian control problem, solves that limit problem, and then asks for a policy in the original system whose performance converges to the Brownian optimum. This programme was proposed by Harrison (Harrison 1988), and the parallel server system studied here is the example Harrison used (Harrison, Ann. Appl. Probab. 1998) to show that the greedy static priority rule can be very inefficient.

Bell and Williams (2001) gave the first proof of asymptotic optimality of a continuous-review policy for this system, with renewal arrivals and general service times. Harrison (1998) had treated Poisson arrivals and deterministic service times with a discrete-review policy and a pathwise criterion. Harrison and López (Queueing Systems, 1999) identified the complete resource pooling condition for general parallel server systems. The threshold policy and the proof method of Bell and Williams were later extended to multiserver systems (Bell and Williams, Electron. J. Probab., 2005).

Setting

There are two job classes and two servers. Server 1 serves class 1 (activity 1); server 2 serves class 1 (activity 2) and class 2 (activity 3). A sequence of such systems is indexed by r→∞r\to\inftyr→∞. On a probability space, i.i.d. sequences uˇk(i)\check u_k(i)uˇk​(i) (k=1,2k=1,2k=1,2) and vˇj(i)\check v_j(i)vˇj​(i) (j=1,2,3j=1,2,3j=1,2,3), i≥1i\ge1i≥1, are fixed: strictly positive, mutually independent, with mean one and finite variances αk2,βj2\alpha_k^2,\beta_j^2αk2​,βj2​. In system rrr the interarrival times are ukr(i)=uˇk(i)/λkru_k^r(i)=\check u_k(i)/\lambda_k^rukr​(i)=uˇk​(i)/λkr​ and the service times are vjr(i)=vˇj(i)/μjrv_j^r(i)=\check v_j(i)/\mu_j^rvjr​(i)=vˇj​(i)/μjr​. The renewal processes Akr(t)A_k^r(t)Akr​(t) and Sjr(t)S_j^r(t)Sjr​(t) count arrivals and potential service completions.

A scheduling control policy is an allocation T=(T1,T2,T3)T=(T_1,T_2,T_3)T=(T1​,T2​,T3​), where Tj(t)T_j(t)Tj​(t) is the time devoted to activity jjj in [0,t][0,t][0,t]. Each Tj(t)T_j(t)Tj​(t) is a random variable, each TjT_jTj​ is continuous and nondecreasing from 000, and so are the idle times I1=t−T1I_1=t-T_1I1​=t−T1​ and I2=t−T2−T3I_2=t-T_2-T_3I2​=t−T2​−T3​. The queue lengths

Q1(t)=A1(t)−S1(T1(t))−S2(T2(t)),Q2(t)=A2(t)−S3(T3(t))Q_1(t)=A_1(t)-S_1(T_1(t))-S_2(T_2(t)),\qquad Q_2(t)=A_2(t)-S_3(T_3(t))Q1​(t)=A1​(t)−S1​(T1​(t))−S2​(T2​(t)),Q2​(t)=A2​(t)−S3​(T3​(t))

must be nonnegative. Policies may anticipate the future. The rates satisfy Assumption 3.1: λ1>μ1\lambda_1>\mu_1λ1​>μ1​, 1−(λ1−μ1)/μ2=λ2/μ31-(\lambda_1-\mu_1)/\mu_2=\lambda_2/\mu_31−(λ1​−μ1​)/μ2​=λ2​/μ3​, and the rates converge at rate 1/r1/r1/r to limits with second-order parameters θ1,θ2\theta_1,\theta_2θ1​,θ2​. Assumption 3.2 is h1μ2≥h2μ3h_1\mu_2\ge h_2\mu_3h1​μ2​≥h2​μ3​, and Assumption 3.3 gives finite exponential moments near 000. With Q^r(t)=r−1Qr(r2t)\hat Q^r(t)=r^{-1}Q^r(r^2t)Q^​r(t)=r−1Qr(r2t) the cost is

J^r(Tr)=E(∫0∞e−γt h⋅Q^r(t) dt).\hat J^r(T^r)=\mathbf E\Big(\int_0^\infty e^{-\gamma t}\,h\cdot\hat Q^r(t)\,dt\Big).J^r(Tr)=E(∫0∞​e−γth⋅Q^​r(t)dt).

The threshold policy with Lr=[clog⁡r]L^r=[c\log r]Lr=[clogr] works as follows. Server 1 works whenever it has a class 1 job available. Server 2 serves class 1 with preemptive-resume priority when more than LrL^rLr class 1 jobs are present, and otherwise serves class 2. The Brownian benchmark is built from a two-dimensional Brownian motion X~\tilde XX~ with drift θ\thetaθ and diagonal covariance, from y=(1,μ2/μ3)y=(1,\mu_2/\mu_3)y=(1,μ2​/μ3​), and from the reflected process W~∗=y⋅X~+V~∗\tilde W^*=y\cdot\tilde X+\tilde V^*W~∗=y⋅X~+V~∗ with V~∗(t)=−inf⁡s≤ty⋅X~(s)\tilde V^*(t)=-\inf_{s\le t}y\cdot\tilde X(s)V~∗(t)=−infs≤t​y⋅X~(s). Its cost is J∗=E∫0∞e−γth2 W~∗(t)/y2 dtJ^*=\mathbf E\int_0^\infty e^{-\gamma t}h_2\,\tilde W^*(t)/y_2\,dtJ∗=E∫0∞​e−γth2​W~∗(t)/y2​dt.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 5.3

For ccc larger than a constant c0c_0c0​ that depends only on the model data, and for every sequence {Tr}\{T^r\}{Tr} of scheduling control policies,

lim inf⁡r→∞J^r(Tr) ≥ J∗ = lim⁡r→∞J^r(Tr,∗),J∗<∞.\liminf_{r\to\infty}\hat J^r(T^r)\ \ge\ J^*\ =\ \lim_{r\to\infty}\hat J^r(T^{r,*}),\qquad J^*<\infty .r→∞liminf​J^r(Tr) ≥ J∗ = r→∞lim​J^r(Tr,∗),J∗<∞.

Milestones

  • Proposition B.1: the one-dimensional Skorokhod problem, its explicit solution and its minimality.
  • Appendix A, (181) and (184): Cramér-type deviation bounds for delayed renewal processes.
  • Theorem 7.2: after first reaching LrL^rLr, the class 1 queue stays within Lr−1L^r-1Lr−1 of the threshold, with probability tending to one.
  • Theorem 7.1: (Q^1r,I^1r)⇒(0,0)(\hat Q_1^r,\hat I_1^r)\Rightarrow(0,0)(Q^​1r​,I^1r​)⇒(0,0) under the threshold policy.
  • Lemma 8.1: the fluid-scaled threshold allocations converge to Tˉ∗(t)=(t,λ1−μ1μ2t,λ2μ3t)\bar T^*(t)=(t,\frac{\lambda_1-\mu_1}{\mu_2}t,\frac{\lambda_2}{\mu_3}t)Tˉ∗(t)=(t,μ2​λ1​−μ1​​t,μ3​λ2​​t).
  • Theorem 5.2 (state-space collapse): (Q^1r,Q^2r,I^1r,I^2r)⇒(0,Q~2∗,0,I~2∗)(\hat Q_1^r,\hat Q_2^r,\hat I_1^r,\hat I_2^r)\Rightarrow(0,\tilde Q_2^*,0,\tilde I_2^*)(Q^​1r​,Q^​2r​,I^1r​,I^2r​)⇒(0,Q~​2∗​,0,I~2∗​).
  • Lemma 9.3: along a subsequence achieving a finite lim inf⁡\liminfliminf cost, the fluid-scaled processes converge to (0,λt,μt,Tˉ∗,0)(0,\lambda t,\mu t,\bar T^*,0)(0,λt,μt,Tˉ∗,0).

A further draft theorem states that Definition 5.1 determines an admissible allocation, unique pathwise, whenever Lr≥1L^r\ge1Lr≥1.

Significance

The theorem proves that a simple state-dependent rule, which sends server 2 to class 1 only when the class 1 queue exceeds a logarithmic safety stock, is asymptotically optimal among all policies, including those that anticipate the future. The limiting cost is the explicit optimum of the Brownian control problem. The proof gives a template for heavy-traffic asymptotic optimality under complete resource pooling: a lower bound valid for every policy, and state-space collapse under the proposed policy. The residual process analysis of Section 7 shows how a threshold of order log⁡r\log rlogr makes starvation of server 1 negligible on the diffusion time scale.

The paper's results are proved but not machine-checked; no formal proof exists in any proof assistant. The mission asks for formal statements of the paper's main theorem and its supporting lemmas, followed by formal proofs. Parts of the development are independent of the paper: the one-dimensional Skorokhod map, renewal large deviation bounds, and convergence encodings on path space.

Difficulty

The lower bound must hold for arbitrary, possibly anticipating, policies, so no Markov structure is available. The argument has to pass through fluid limits of an arbitrary cost-minimizing subsequence and a pathwise minimality property, and Fatou's lemma for the limit needs uniform control. For the upper bound, the obvious approach, a static priority rule, is known to fail: it starves server 1 and produces a large class 1 queue. With a threshold policy, the hard step is to show that the class 1 queue, once at the threshold, rarely moves Lr−1L^r-1Lr−1 away from it over a time interval of length r2tr^2tr2t. That requires large deviation estimates for renewal processes started at random, multiparameter stopping times. Showing that J^r(Tr,∗)\hat J^r(T^{r,*})J^r(Tr,∗) converges to J∗J^*J∗, rather than only that the processes converge in distribution, also requires uniform integrability of the scaled queue lengths.

Formalization scope

Classes and activities are indexed by Fin 2 and Fin 3. The i.i.d. sequences keep the paper's index base i≥1i\ge1i≥1, and the systems are indexed by n∈Nn\in\mathbb Nn∈N with r=rn∈[1,∞)r=r_n\in[1,\infty)r=rn​∈[1,∞), rn→∞r_n\to\inftyrn​→∞. Time is real, and every condition is imposed for t≥0t\ge0t≥0. Admissibility is exactly (11)–(14). Measurability in (11) is with respect to the completion of P\mathbf PP, since the paper's space is complete. Finiteness of the renewal processes everywhere on Ω\OmegaΩ, which the paper obtains by discarding a null set, is a hypothesis. Queue lengths are real, costs are lower Lebesgue integrals in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞], counting processes take values in N∪{∞}\mathbb N\cup\{\infty\}N∪{∞}, and Λ\LambdaΛ, Λ∗\Lambda^*Λ∗ take values in the extended reals.

The constant c0c_0c0​ is existential and is chosen after the model data and before ccc, the policies and the Brownian motions. The threshold relations are required only for the systems with Lr≥1L^r\ge1Lr≥1, which are all but finitely many. Each convergence to a deterministic limit (Theorem 7.1, Lemmas 8.1 and 9.3) is stated as u.o.c. convergence in probability, the paper's own equivalence (p. 633). Theorem 5.2 is stated in coupling form: there are copies of the processes on one probability space, with Skorokhod paths and the same laws, that converge almost surely uniformly on compacts. This is equivalent to weak convergence in D4\mathbf D^4D4 to a limit with continuous paths. J∗J^*J∗ is defined by (44) from an arbitrary pair of independent standard Brownian motions (Mathlib's IsBrownianReal), not by a closed form.

Two formalizations would make the goal trivial, and both are excluded. Leaving out the requirement that Tr,∗T^{r,*}Tr,∗ actually follow the policy would make the goal false or empty. Narrowing the class of competing policies, for example to non-anticipating ones, would weaken the theorem. A draft theorem also states that the threshold allocation exists and is unique pathwise, so the hypothesis on Tr,∗T^{r,*}Tr,∗ can be satisfied.

The development needs renewal theory (functional central limit theorems, Cramér bounds), multiparameter stopping times, tightness in D\mathbf DD, the Skorokhod representation theorem, the reflection map, and properties of reflected Brownian motion. Contributions are welcome at every level: proofs of milestones, reusable lemmas on renewal processes and the Skorokhod map, and further lemmas of the paper (Lemmas 7.5, 7.6 and 9.2 are not yet stated).

Selected references

  • S. L. Bell and R. J. Williams, Dynamic scheduling of a system with two parallel servers in heavy traffic with resource pooling: asymptotic optimality of a threshold policy, Ann. Appl. Probab. 11 (2001) 608–649. https://doi.org/10.1214/aoap/1015345343
  • J. M. Harrison, Heavy traffic analysis of a system with parallel servers: asymptotic optimality of discrete-review policies, Ann. Appl. Probab. 8 (1998) 822–848.
  • J. M. Harrison and M. J. López, Heavy traffic resource pooling in parallel-server systems, Queueing Systems 33 (1999) 339–368.
  • J. M. Harrison, Brownian models of queueing networks with heterogeneous customer populations, in Stochastic Differential Systems, Stochastic Control Theory and Their Applications, Springer (1988) 147–186.
  • S. L. Bell and R. J. Williams, Dynamic scheduling of a parallel server system in heavy traffic with complete resource pooling: asymptotic optimality of a threshold policy, Electron. J. Probab. 10 (2005) 1044–1115.
  • J. M. Harrison, Brownian Motion and Stochastic Flow Systems, Wiley (1985).
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Dynamics of Stochastic Approximation Algorithms 7: Weak Limit Points of the Occupation Measures of a Weak Asymptotic Pseudotrajectory Are InvariantResearch Paper

Motivation

Stochastic approximation algorithms are recursions xn+1−xn=γn+1(F(xn)+Un+1)x_{n+1}-x_n=\gamma_{n+1}(F(x_n)+U_{n+1})xn+1​−xn​=γn+1​(F(xn​)+Un+1​) driven by small steps γn\gamma_nγn​ and noise Un+1U_{n+1}Un+1​; they include the Robbins–Monro scheme, stochastic gradient methods and learning dynamics in games. The ODE method studies their long-run behaviour by comparing a time-interpolation of the iterates with the trajectories of a deterministic dynamical system. In Benaïm's lecture notes (Benaïm 1999) this comparison is formalized by the notion of an asymptotic pseudotrajectory, introduced in Benaïm and Hirsch (1996): a path that, over every window of fixed length, shadows the deterministic orbit started at its current position with an error that vanishes as time goes to infinity.

The pathwise results of the earlier sections of the notes concern algorithms whose step sizes decrease fast enough, typically γn=o(1/log⁡n)\gamma_n=o(1/\log n)γn​=o(1/logn) or γn=O(n−α)\gamma_n=O(n^{-\alpha})γn​=O(n−α). When the step sizes go to zero more slowly, the limit sets of the process can no longer be characterized precisely: with steps of order 1/log⁡n1/\log n1/logn the process may fail to converge even when the chain recurrent set of the ODE consists of isolated equilibria. Section 10, which is mainly based on work of Benaïm and Schreiber, describes instead the statistical behaviour of such processes in terms of the deterministic dynamics. It introduces a weaker, conditional notion, the weak asymptotic pseudotrajectory, and proves in Theorem 10.1 that the empirical distribution of the time spent by the process in different regions of the state space accumulates only on invariant measures of the deterministic dynamics. This is an ergodic-theoretic counterpart of the limit-set theorems of Section 5.

Setting

A semiflow on a metric space (M,d)(M,d)(M,d) is a continuous map Φ:R+×M→M\Phi:\mathbb R_+\times M\to MΦ:R+​×M→M, (t,x)↦Φt(x)(t,x)\mapsto\Phi_t(x)(t,x)↦Φt​(x), with Φ0=Id\Phi_0=\mathrm{Id}Φ0​=Id and Φt+s=Φt∘Φs\Phi_{t+s}=\Phi_t\circ\Phi_sΦt+s​=Φt​∘Φs​ for t,s≥0t,s\ge0t,s≥0. Throughout, MMM is a separable metric space with its Borel σ\sigmaσ-algebra.

Let (Ω,F,P)(\Omega,\mathcal F,P)(Ω,F,P) be a probability space and {Ft}t≥0\{\mathcal F_t\}_{t\ge0}{Ft​}t≥0​ a nondecreasing family of sub-σ\sigmaσ-algebras. A process X:R+×Ω→MX:\mathbb R_+\times\Omega\to MX:R+​×Ω→M is a weak asymptotic pseudotrajectory of Φ\PhiΦ if

  1. it is progressively measurable: for every T>0T>0T>0 the restriction of XXX to [0,T]×Ω[0,T]\times\Omega[0,T]×Ω is measurable for the product of the Borel σ\sigmaσ-field of [0,T][0,T][0,T] and FT\mathcal F_TFT​;
  2. for each α>0\alpha>0α>0 and T>0T>0T>0, almost surely
lim⁡t→∞P{sup⁡0≤h≤Td(X(t+h),Φh(X(t)))≥α ∣ Ft}=0.\lim_{t\to\infty}P\Big\{\sup_{0\le h\le T}d\big(X(t+h),\Phi_h(X(t))\big)\ge\alpha\ \Big|\ \mathcal F_t\Big\}=0 .t→∞lim​P{0≤h≤Tsup​d(X(t+h),Φh​(X(t)))≥α ​ Ft​}=0.

Let P(M)\mathcal P(M)P(M) be the space of Borel probability measures on MMM with the topology of weak convergence. A measure μ∈P(M)\mu\in\mathcal P(M)μ∈P(M) is Φ\PhiΦ-invariant if (Φt)∗μ=μ(\Phi_t)_*\mu=\mu(Φt​)∗​μ=μ for every t≥0t\ge0t≥0; the set of invariant measures is M(Φ)\mathcal M(\Phi)M(Φ). The occupation measure of the process at time t>0t>0t>0 is the random probability measure

μt(ω)=1t∫0tδX(s,ω) ds,\mu_t(\omega)=\frac1t\int_0^t\delta_{X(s,\omega)}\,ds ,μt​(ω)=t1​∫0t​δX(s,ω)​ds,

and M(X,ω)⊂P(M)\mathcal M(X,\omega)\subset\mathcal P(M)M(X,ω)⊂P(M) is the set of its weak limit points as t→∞t\to\inftyt→∞.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 10.1

If XXX is a weak asymptotic pseudotrajectory of Φ\PhiΦ, there is a set Ω~⊂Ω\tilde\Omega\subset\OmegaΩ~⊂Ω with P(Ω~)=1P(\tilde\Omega)=1P(Ω~)=1 such that for all ω∈Ω~\omega\in\tilde\Omegaω∈Ω~

M(X,ω)⊂M(Φ).\mathcal M(X,\omega)\subset\mathcal M(\Phi).M(X,ω)⊂M(Φ).

No tightness is assumed, so M(X,ω)\mathcal M(X,\omega)M(X,ω) may be empty; the statement asserts the inclusion, not nonemptiness.

Milestones

Fix a uniformly continuous f:M→[0,1]f:M\to[0,1]f:M→[0,1] and T>0T>0T>0, and set Un(f,T)=∫(n−1)TnTf(X(s)) dsU_n(f,T)=\int_{(n-1)T}^{nT}f(X(s))\,dsUn​(f,T)=∫(n−1)TnT​f(X(s))ds for n≥1n\ge1n≥1. The milestones are the numbered displays of the proof on pp. 62–63:

  • Eq. (47): 1n∑i=1n[Ui(f,T)−E(Ui(f,T)∣F(i−1)T)]→0\frac1n\sum_{i=1}^n[U_i(f,T)-E(U_i(f,T)\mid\mathcal F_{(i-1)T})]\to0n1​∑i=1n​[Ui​(f,T)−E(Ui​(f,T)∣F(i−1)T​)]→0 almost surely (stated for every continuous fff with values in [0,1][0,1][0,1], since the proof also applies it to f∘ΦTf\circ\Phi_Tf∘ΦT​);
  • Eq. (50): the same with Ui+1(f,T)U_{i+1}(f,T)Ui+1​(f,T) conditioned on F(i−1)T\mathcal F_{(i-1)T}F(i−1)T​;
  • Eq. (51): E(Ui+1(f,T)−Ui(f∘ΦT,T)∣F(i−1)T)→0E(U_{i+1}(f,T)-U_i(f\circ\Phi_T,T)\mid\mathcal F_{(i-1)T})\to0E(Ui+1​(f,T)−Ui​(f∘ΦT​,T)∣F(i−1)T​)→0 almost surely;
  • Eq. (52): 1n∑i=1nUi+1(f,T)−1n∑i=1nUi(f∘ΦT,T)→0\frac1n\sum_{i=1}^nU_{i+1}(f,T)-\frac1n\sum_{i=1}^nU_i(f\circ\Phi_T,T)\to0n1​∑i=1n​Ui+1​(f,T)−n1​∑i=1n​Ui​(f∘ΦT​,T)→0 almost surely;
  • Eq. (53): for a single measurable path whose occupation measures converge weakly to μ\muμ along tj→∞t_j\to\inftytj​→∞, the averages 1njT∑i=0nj−1∫iT(i+1)Tf(xs) ds\frac1{n_jT}\sum_{i=0}^{n_j-1}\int_{iT}^{(i+1)T}f(x_s)\,dsnj​T1​∑i=0nj​−1​∫iT(i+1)T​f(xs​)ds with nj=⌊tj/T⌋n_j=\lfloor t_j/T\rfloornj​=⌊tj​/T⌋ converge to ∫f dμ\int f\,d\mu∫fdμ for every bounded continuous fff.

Significance

The result. Theorem 10.1 locates the long-run statistics of a stochastic process that only shadows a deterministic semiflow in conditional probability. When the occupation measures are tight, for example when the path has compact closure, M(X,ω)\mathcal M(X,\omega)M(X,ω) is nonempty, and the theorem restricts where the process spends its time to the supports of invariant measures. Right after the theorem the notes define the minimal center of attraction of the process from the supports of the measures in M(X,ω)\mathcal M(X,\omega)M(X,ω); the conclusion applies to processes, such as slowly decreasing step-size algorithms, for which the pathwise limit-set theorem of Section 5 is not available.

Formalizing it. The theorem has a complete published proof. No machine-checked version of it, of weak asymptotic pseudotrajectories, or of occupation-measure limit theorems for continuous-time processes is known to exist. The mission produces a formal definition of progressively measurable weak asymptotic pseudotrajectories, occupation measures of measurable paths and their weak limit points, and a proof that combines a martingale law of large numbers in discrete time with weak convergence in P(M)\mathcal P(M)P(M).

Difficulty

The obvious route is to apply the pathwise argument for asymptotic pseudotrajectories along each path. It fails, because condition 2 controls only conditional probabilities: the deviation events may occur infinitely often along almost every path while their conditional probabilities tend to zero. The proof therefore has to work with averages and conditional expectations instead of with individual paths: a strong law of large numbers for bounded martingale differences transfers conditional statements to time averages, and this must be done for one test function and one horizon at a time. Passing from countably many test functions to invariance requires a countable family of uniformly continuous functions that determines weak convergence on the separable space MMM, and the a.s. sets must be intersected over that family and over rational horizons. Measurability is a second difficulty: paths are not assumed continuous, so the integrals, suprema and conditional expectations involved must be shown to be well defined from progressive measurability alone.

Formalization scope

Time is R≥0\mathbb R_{\ge0}R≥0​; the semiflow is Mathlib's Flow ℝ≥0 M; the filtration is a Filtration ℝ≥0; P(M)\mathcal P(M)P(M) is ProbabilityMeasure M with its topology of weak convergence. MMM is a separable metric space with its Borel σ\sigmaσ-algebra; it is not assumed compact, complete or Polish. Progressive measurability is stated literally for every T>0T>0T>0. The conditional probability in condition 2 is the conditional expectation of the indicator of the deviation event, which is required to be measurable (the paper's P{⋅∣Ft}P\{\cdot\mid\mathcal F_t\}P{⋅∣Ft​} presupposes an event); the supremum over h∈[0,T]h\in[0,T]h∈[0,T] is taken in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞]. Invariance for the semiflow is (Φt)∗μ=μ(\Phi_t)_*\mu=\mu(Φt​)∗​μ=μ for all t≥0t\ge0t≥0, the form the proof establishes; for a flow it agrees with the definition μ(A)=μ(Φt(A))\mu(A)=\mu(\Phi_t(A))μ(A)=μ(Φt​(A)) of Section 8.3. Weak limit points are cluster points of t↦μt(ω)t\mapsto\mu_t(\omega)t↦μt​(ω) as t→∞t\to\inftyt→∞; the occupation measure is a genuine probability measure for every measurable path and t>0t>0t>0.

The following formalizations would trivialize the statement and are excluded by the definitions: an "occupation measure" equal to the zero measure for a non-measurable path; a conditional probability of a non-measurable event, which Lean evaluates to 000 and which would make condition 2 vacuous; invariance defined through images Φt(A)\Phi_t(A)Φt​(A), which need not be Borel for a semiflow; and a compactness or Polish assumption on MMM, which the theorem does not make.

A complete development needs: Fubini-type measurability for progressively measurable processes, square-integrable martingale convergence and Kronecker's lemma (both largely in Mathlib), conditional expectations of time integrals, a convergence-determining countable family of uniformly continuous functions on a separable metric space, and the identification of weak convergence with convergence of integrals of bounded continuous functions. The martingale law of large numbers (Eqs. (47), (50)) and Eq. (53) are reusable outside this mission. Proofs of any milestone, and alternative arguments for the goal, are welcome.

Selected references

  • M. Benaïm, Dynamics of Stochastic Approximation Algorithms, Séminaire de Probabilités XXXIII, Lecture Notes in Mathematics 1709, Springer, 1999, pp. 1–68. Section 10, Theorem 10.1, pp. 60–63. https://doi.org/10.1007/BFb0096509
  • M. Benaïm and M. W. Hirsch, Asymptotic pseudotrajectories and chain recurrent flows, with applications, Journal of Dynamics and Differential Equations 8 (1996), 141–176. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02218617
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Dynamical SystemsOperations Research·Captain: mikedeng1

Dynamics of Stochastic Approximation Algorithms 1: Limit Sets of Precompact Asymptotic Pseudotrajectories Are Internally Chain TransitiveResearch Paper

Motivation

A stochastic approximation algorithm updates an estimate by small noisy steps, xn+1−xn=γn+1(F(xn)+Un+1)x_{n+1}-x_n=\gamma_{n+1}(F(x_n)+U_{n+1})xn+1​−xn​=γn+1​(F(xn​)+Un+1​), with step sizes γn→0\gamma_n\to0γn​→0 and noise UnU_nUn​. Such recursions underlie stochastic gradient descent, adaptive control, reinforcement learning (Q-learning, temporal-difference methods) and learning in games (fictitious play, reinforcement models). The ODE method compares the long-run behaviour of the algorithm with that of the ordinary differential equation x˙=F(x)\dot x=F(x)x˙=F(x). Classical versions of this comparison (Ljung 1977, Kushner and Clark 1978) assume the ODE has a globally asymptotically stable equilibrium, or a Lyapunov function, and cannot describe algorithms whose ODE has periodic orbits, heteroclinic cycles or chaotic sets.

Benaïm and Hirsch (1996) replaced these special assumptions by a single dynamical statement: the interpolated algorithm is an asymptotic pseudotrajectory of the flow of FFF, and the limit set of every precompact asymptotic pseudotrajectory is internally chain transitive. This mission formalizes that limit set theorem as it is presented in Michel Benaïm's lecture notes Dynamics of Stochastic Approximation Algorithms (Séminaire de Probabilités XXXIII, 1999).

Timeline. Bowen (1975) and Conley (1978) introduced (δ,T)(\delta,T)(δ,T)-pseudo-orbits and chain recurrence, and Conley proved that the chain recurrent set of a flow on a compact space is internally chain recurrent. Benaïm (1996, SIAM J. Control Optim.) related limit sets of stochastic approximation processes to the chain recurrence of the ODE; Benaïm and Hirsch (1996) introduced asymptotic pseudotrajectories for semiflows on metric spaces and proved the limit set theorem in the form formalized here. The 1999 notes give a self-contained proof through the translation semiflow on a space of curves.

Setting

Let (M,d)(M,d)(M,d) be a metric space. A semiflow Φ\PhiΦ on MMM is a continuous map R+×M→M\mathbb R_+\times M\to MR+​×M→M, (t,x)↦Φt(x)(t,x)\mapsto\Phi_t(x)(t,x)↦Φt​(x), with Φ0=Id\Phi_0=\mathrm{Id}Φ0​=Id and Φt+s=Φt∘Φs\Phi_{t+s}=\Phi_t\circ\Phi_sΦt+s​=Φt​∘Φs​. A set AAA is invariant if Φt(A)=A\Phi_t(A)=AΦt​(A)=A for every t≥0t\ge0t≥0; then Φ∣A\Phi|AΦ∣A denotes the restricted semiflow on AAA.

A continuous curve X:R+→MX:\mathbb R_+\to MX:R+​→M is an asymptotic pseudotrajectory of Φ\PhiΦ if

lim⁡t→∞sup⁡0≤h≤Td(X(t+h),Φh(X(t)))=0for every T>0,\lim_{t\to\infty}\sup_{0\le h\le T}d\big(X(t+h),\Phi_h(X(t))\big)=0\quad\text{for every }T>0,t→∞lim​0≤h≤Tsup​d(X(t+h),Φh​(X(t)))=0for every T>0,

and it is precompact if X(R+)X(\mathbb R_+)X(R+​) has compact closure. Its limit set is L(X)=⋂t≥0X([t,∞))‾L(X)=\bigcap_{t\ge0}\overline{X([t,\infty))}L(X)=⋂t≥0​X([t,∞))​.

For δ>0\delta>0δ>0, T>0T>0T>0, a (δ,T)(\delta,T)(δ,T)-pseudo-orbit from aaa to bbb consists of k≥1k\ge1k≥1 partial trajectories, given by points y0,…,yk−1y_0,\dots,y_{k-1}y0​,…,yk−1​ (and an endpoint yky_kyk​) and times t0,…,tk−1≥Tt_0,\dots,t_{k-1}\ge Tt0​,…,tk−1​≥T with d(y0,a)<δd(y_0,a)<\deltad(y0​,a)<δ, d(Φtj(yj),yj+1)<δd(\Phi_{t_j}(y_j),y_{j+1})<\deltad(Φtj​​(yj​),yj+1​)<δ for j<kj<kj<k, and yk=by_k=byk​=b. One writes a↪ba\hookrightarrow ba↪b if such pseudo-orbits exist for all δ,T>0\delta,T>0δ,T>0. A nonempty compact invariant set Λ\LambdaΛ is internally chain transitive if a↪ba\hookrightarrow ba↪b for the restricted semiflow Φ∣Λ\Phi|\LambdaΦ∣Λ for all a,b∈Λa,b\in\Lambdaa,b∈Λ, so that all yiy_iyi​ lie in Λ\LambdaΛ; it is internally chain recurrent if a↪aa\hookrightarrow aa↪a for Φ∣Λ\Phi|\LambdaΦ∣Λ for every a∈Λa\in\Lambdaa∈Λ. An attractor is a nonempty compact invariant set AAA with a neighbourhood WWW such that dist⁡(Φtx,A)→0\operatorname{dist}(\Phi_tx,A)\to0dist(Φt​x,A)→0 uniformly in x∈Wx\in Wx∈W.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 5.7 (i)

For every semiflow Φ\PhiΦ on a metric space MMM and every precompact asymptotic pseudotrajectory XXX of Φ\PhiΦ,

L(X) is internally chain transitive.L(X)\ \text{is internally chain transitive.}L(X) is internally chain transitive.

Milestones (in the order of the proof)

  • Lemma 3.1. XXX is an asymptotic pseudotrajectory iff d(Θt(X),Φ^∘Θt(X))→0d(\Theta^t(X),\hat\Phi\circ\Theta^t(X))\to0d(Θt(X),Φ^∘Θt(X))→0, where Θ\ThetaΘ is the translation semiflow on C0(R+,M)C^0(\mathbb R_+,M)C0(R+​,M) and Φ^(Y)=ΦY(0)\hat\Phi(Y)=\Phi^{Y(0)}Φ^(Y)=ΦY(0).
  • Theorem 3.2. For precompact continuous XXX: XXX is an asymptotic pseudotrajectory iff XXX is uniformly continuous and every limit point of Θt(X)\Theta^{t}(X)Θt(X), t→∞t\to\inftyt→∞, is a trajectory of Φ\PhiΦ; and then {Θt(X)}t≥0\{\Theta^t(X)\}_{t\ge0}{Θt(X)}t≥0​ is relatively compact.
  • Lemma 5.2. A nonempty open UUU with compact closure and ΦT(U‾)⊂U\Phi_T(\overline U)\subset UΦT​(U)⊂U for some T>0T>0T>0 contains an attractor whose basin contains U‾\overline UU.
  • Proposition 5.3. For nonempty Λ\LambdaΛ: internally chain transitive   ⟺  \iff⟺ connected and internally chain recurrent   ⟺  \iff⟺ compact, invariant and Φ∣Λ\Phi|\LambdaΦ∣Λ has no proper attractor.
  • Theorem 5.5. On a nonempty compact MMM, the chain recurrent set R(Φ)R(\Phi)R(Φ) is internally chain recurrent.
  • Corollary 5.6. If γ+(x)‾\overline{\gamma^+(x)}γ+(x)​ is compact, then ω(x)\omega(x)ω(x) is internally chain transitive.

Significance

The result. Theorem 5.7 (i) is the bridge between probability and dynamics in the ODE method. Once a stochastic approximation process is shown to be an asymptotic pseudotrajectory (missions 2 to 4 of this series do that under martingale-noise conditions), every statement about its limit points becomes a statement about internally chain transitive sets of the ODE: convergence to equilibria when a Lyapunov function exists (Proposition 6.4), convergence to attractors with positive probability (Theorem 7.3), and the analysis of learning dynamics in games. The theorem is sharp in the sense that every internally chain transitive set is a limit set of some asymptotic pseudotrajectory (Theorem 5.7 (ii), proved in Benaïm and Hirsch 1996 and not part of this mission).

Formalizing it. The result is proved in the literature; it is not formalized. Mathlib has semiflows (Flow), omega limit sets and the compact-open topology, but no pseudo-orbits, chain recurrence, Conley's theory of attractors, or asymptotic pseudotrajectories. This mission produces that layer for semiflows on general metric spaces, which is reusable for any later formalization of the ODE method, of Conley theory, or of learning in games.

Difficulty

The obvious approach follows XXX from a point a∈L(X)a\in L(X)a∈L(X) to a point b∈L(X)b\in L(X)b∈L(X): XXX returns near aaa and near bbb infinitely often, and on windows of length TTT it is close to a trajectory, so concatenating windows gives a pseudo-orbit. The pseudo-orbit obtained this way has its points on the curve XXX, not in L(X)L(X)L(X); this only shows that L(X)L(X)L(X) is chain transitive for Φ\PhiΦ on MMM, a strictly weaker property. Producing pseudo-orbits whose points lie in L(X)L(X)L(X) itself is the central difficulty, and it is where precompactness of XXX is used. Invariance Φt(L(X))=L(X)\Phi_t(L(X))=L(X)Φt​(L(X))=L(X), with equality, also needs a compactness argument, since a semiflow is not invertible.

Formalization scope

A semiflow is Mathlib's Flow ℝ≥0 M on a [MetricSpace M]; MMM is arbitrary, with no compactness, completeness or local compactness. Time is ℝ≥0. Curves are functions ℝ≥0 → M; continuity is part of being an asymptotic pseudotrajectory, and precompactness is IsCompact (closure (Set.range X)). Invariance is equality Φt(A)=A\Phi_t(A)=AΦt​(A)=A. Internally chain recurrent and internally chain transitive sets are nonempty by definition, and their pseudo-orbits are those of the restricted semiflow on the subtype Λ\LambdaΛ, so every point of the pseudo-orbit lies in Λ\LambdaΛ. Attractors converge uniformly on a neighbourhood. Lemma 3.1 and Theorem 3.2 are stated on C0(R+,M)C^0(\mathbb R_+,M)C0(R+​,M) (C(ℝ≥0, M), compact-open topology) with the half-line distance; the notes write C0(R,M)C^0(\mathbb R,M)C0(R,M), but with the convention Φp(t)=p\Phi^p(t)=pΦp(t)=p for t<0t<0t<0 that version fails for semiflows (a periodic trajectory is a counterexample), and the notes themselves describe asymptotic pseudotrajectories as points of C0(R+,M)C^0(\mathbb R_+,M)C0(R+​,M).

Ruled out: pseudo-orbits with no trajectory piece (k=0k=0k=0), pseudo-orbits allowed to leave L(X)L(X)L(X), invariance as mere inclusion Φt(A)⊂A\Phi_t(A)\subset AΦt​(A)⊂A, and any compactness assumption on MMM. Each of these makes the goal weaker than the theorem of the notes.

A complete development needs: elementary properties of pseudo-orbits (concatenation, continuity estimates), Arzelà–Ascoli on C(ℝ≥0, M), Conley's attractor construction, and the conjugacy between Φ\PhiΦ and the translation semiflow on SΦS_\PhiSΦ​. Proofs of the milestones, alternative direct proofs of the goal (Benaïm 1996), and reusable lemmas about chain recurrence for Flow are all welcome.

Selected references

  • M. Benaïm, Dynamics of stochastic approximation algorithms, Séminaire de Probabilités XXXIII, Lecture Notes in Math. 1709, Springer, 1999, pp. 1–68. https://doi.org/10.1007/BFb0096509
  • M. Benaïm and M. W. Hirsch, Asymptotic pseudotrajectories and chain recurrent flows, with applications, J. Dynam. Differential Equations 8 (1996), 141–176. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02218617
  • M. Benaïm, A dynamical system approach to stochastic approximations, SIAM J. Control Optim. 34 (1996), 437–472. https://doi.org/10.1137/S0363012993253534
  • C. Conley, Isolated Invariant Sets and the Morse Index, CBMS Regional Conference Series in Mathematics 38, AMS, 1978. https://doi.org/10.1090/cbms/038
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Dynamical SystemsOperations Research·Captain: mikedeng1

Dynamics of Stochastic Approximation Algorithms 2: Under A1 and A2 the Interpolated Process Is an Asymptotic Pseudotrajectory of the Flow of FResearch Paper

Motivation

A stochastic approximation algorithm is a recursion

xn+1−xn=γn+1(F(xn)+Un+1)x_{n+1}-x_n=\gamma_{n+1}\big(F(x_n)+U_{n+1}\big)xn+1​−xn​=γn+1​(F(xn​)+Un+1​)

in Rd\mathbb R^dRd, driven by a vector field FFF, decreasing step sizes γn\gamma_nγn​ and perturbations UnU_nUn​. Robbins–Monro root finding, stochastic gradient descent, adaptive filters, learning dynamics in games (fictitious play, reinforcement learning) and urn models all have this form. The ODE method, introduced by Ljung (1977) and developed by Kushner and Clark (1978), Métivier and Priouret (1987) and Kushner and Yin (1997), studies such a recursion by comparing it with the differential equation x˙=F(x)\dot x=F(x)x˙=F(x).

Benaïm and Hirsch (1996) gave the comparison a dynamical form: the continuous-time interpolation of {xn}\{x_n\}{xn​} is an asymptotic pseudotrajectory of the flow of FFF. Proposition 4.1 of Benaïm's lecture notes (Séminaire de Probabilités XXXIII, 1999) states that deterministic comparison theorem under two assumptions: a noise condition (A1) and either bounded iterates (A2) or a Lipschitz, bounded vector field near the iterates (A2′). The notes then verify A1 almost surely for martingale noise (Propositions 4.2 and 4.4) and use the asymptotic pseudotrajectory property to describe limit sets, attractors and nonconvergence.

Setting

Let F:Rd→RdF:\mathbb R^d\to\mathbb R^dF:Rd→Rd be continuous. It is globally integrable if through every point there is exactly one integral curve y:R→Rdy:\mathbb R\to\mathbb R^dy:R→Rd, y˙=F(y)\dot y=F(y)y˙​=F(y); the flow Φt(p)\Phi_t(p)Φt​(p) is the value at time ttt of the integral curve through ppp.

The step sizes satisfy γn≥0\gamma_n\ge0γn​≥0, ∑nγn=∞\sum_n\gamma_n=\infty∑n​γn​=∞ and γn→0\gamma_n\to0γn​→0. Set τ0=0\tau_0=0τ0​=0, τn=∑i=1nγi\tau_n=\sum_{i=1}^n\gamma_iτn​=∑i=1n​γi​, and m(t)=sup⁡{k≥0:τk≤t}m(t)=\sup\{k\ge0:\tau_k\le t\}m(t)=sup{k≥0:τk​≤t}. The affine interpolated process X:R+→RdX:\mathbb R_+\to\mathbb R^dX:R+​→Rd and the piecewise constant processes X‾,U‾,γˉ\overline X,\overline U,\bar\gammaX,U,γˉ​ are, for 0≤s<γn+10\le s<\gamma_{n+1}0≤s<γn+1​,

X(τn+s)=xn+s xn+1−xnγn+1,X‾(τn+s)=xn,U‾(τn+s)=Un+1,γˉ(τn+s)=γn+1.X(\tau_n+s)=x_n+s\,\frac{x_{n+1}-x_n}{\gamma_{n+1}},\qquad \overline X(\tau_n+s)=x_n,\quad \overline U(\tau_n+s)=U_{n+1},\quad \bar\gamma(\tau_n+s)=\gamma_{n+1}.X(τn​+s)=xn​+sγn+1​xn+1​−xn​​,X(τn​+s)=xn​,U(τn​+s)=Un+1​,γˉ​(τn​+s)=γn+1​.

The noise enters through

Δ(t,T)=sup⁡0≤h≤T∥∫tt+hU‾(s) ds∥.\Delta(t,T)=\sup_{0\le h\le T}\Big\|\int_t^{t+h}\overline U(s)\,ds\Big\| .Δ(t,T)=0≤h≤Tsup​​∫tt+h​U(s)ds​.
  • A1: for every T>0T>0T>0, sup⁡{∥∑i=nk−1γi+1Ui+1∥:n<k≤m(τn+T)}→0\sup\{\|\sum_{i=n}^{k-1}\gamma_{i+1}U_{i+1}\|:n<k\le m(\tau_n+T)\}\to0sup{∥∑i=nk−1​γi+1​Ui+1​∥:n<k≤m(τn​+T)}→0 as n→∞n\to\inftyn→∞; equivalently Δ(t,T)→0\Delta(t,T)\to0Δ(t,T)→0 as t→∞t\to\inftyt→∞.
  • A2: sup⁡n∥xn∥<∞\sup_n\|x_n\|<\inftysupn​∥xn​∥<∞.
  • A2′: FFF is Lipschitz and bounded on a neighbourhood of {xn}\{x_n\}{xn​}.

A continuous X:R+→RdX:\mathbb R_+\to\mathbb R^dX:R+​→Rd is an asymptotic pseudotrajectory of Φ\PhiΦ if for every T>0T>0T>0

lim⁡t→∞sup⁡0≤h≤T∥X(t+h)−Φh(X(t))∥=0.\lim_{t\to\infty}\sup_{0\le h\le T}\big\|X(t+h)-\Phi_h(X(t))\big\|=0 .t→∞lim​0≤h≤Tsup​​X(t+h)−Φh​(X(t))​=0.

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 4.1

F continuous, globally integrable,A1,A2 or A2′⟹X is an asymptotic pseudotrajectory of Φ.F\ \text{continuous, globally integrable},\quad \text{A1},\quad \text{A2 or A2}'\quad\Longrightarrow\quad X\ \text{is an asymptotic pseudotrajectory of}\ \Phi .F continuous, globally integrable,A1,A2 or A2′⟹X is an asymptotic pseudotrajectory of Φ.

No rate and no constant appear; the statement holds under either alternative.

Milestones

  1. Eq. (9): X(t)−X(0)=∫0t[F(X‾(s))+U‾(s)] dsX(t)-X(0)=\int_0^t[F(\overline X(s))+\overline U(s)]\,dsX(t)−X(0)=∫0t​[F(X(s))+U(s)]ds.
  2. A1: the discrete and the continuous forms of A1 are equivalent, for each T>0T>0T>0.
  3. Theorem 3.2: for a flow on a metric space and a continuous XXX with relatively compact image, XXX is an asymptotic pseudotrajectory iff XXX is uniformly continuous and every limit point of the translates Θt(X)\Theta^t(X)Θt(X) in C0(R,M)C^0(\mathbb R,M)C0(R,M) is a trajectory of the flow; both imply that {Θt(X)}\{\Theta^t(X)\}{Θt(X)} is relatively compact.
  4. Comparison of XXX and X‾\overline XX (p. 13): if ∥F(xn)∥≤K\|F(x_n)\|\le K∥F(xn​)∥≤K, then for ttt large, sup⁡t≤u≤t+T∥X(u)−X‾(u)∥≤2Δ(t−1,T+1)+sup⁡t≤u≤t+TKγˉ(u)\sup_{t\le u\le t+T}\|X(u)-\overline X(u)\|\le2\Delta(t-1,T+1)+\sup_{t\le u\le t+T}K\bar\gamma(u)supt≤u≤t+T​∥X(u)−X(u)∥≤2Δ(t−1,T+1)+supt≤u≤t+T​Kγˉ​(u).
  5. Estimate (11): under A1 and A2′, for ttt large,
sup⁡0≤h≤T∥X(t+h)−Φh(X(t))∥≤C(T)[Δ(t−1,T+1)+sup⁡t≤s≤t+Tγˉ(s)],\sup_{0\le h\le T}\|X(t+h)-\Phi_h(X(t))\|\le C(T)\Big[\Delta(t-1,T+1)+\sup_{t\le s\le t+T}\bar\gamma(s)\Big],0≤h≤Tsup​∥X(t+h)−Φh​(X(t))∥≤C(T)[Δ(t−1,T+1)+t≤s≤t+Tsup​γˉ​(s)],

with C(T)C(T)C(T) depending only on TTT and on FFF (through its Lipschitz constant and bound on the neighbourhood).

Significance

Proposition 4.1 separates the dynamics of a stochastic approximation algorithm from its noise. Any noise condition implying A1 almost surely (Propositions 4.2 and 4.4 of the notes for LqL^qLq-bounded and subgaussian martingale differences) combines with it to give: almost every sample path, after interpolation, is an asymptotic pseudotrajectory of x˙=F(x)\dot x=F(x)x˙=F(x). The limit set theorem (Theorem 5.7: limit sets are internally chain transitive), the Lyapunov-function criterion (Proposition 6.4) and the attractor results (Section 7) then apply path by path. Estimate (11) gives the quantitative version used for rates.

The result is proved in the notes, building on Benaïm and Hirsch (1996). No machine-checked proof of it, or of the asymptotic pseudotrajectory framework, is known to exist. A formal proof would supply a checked bridge between discrete recursions with step sizes and flows of vector fields, which every ODE-method convergence proof crosses.

Difficulty

The obvious argument compares XXX directly with the flow by Gronwall's inequality. It needs FFF Lipschitz along both the interpolated path and the flow line, which holds under A2′ but not under A2, where FFF is only continuous and solutions are unique without any Lipschitz bound. Under A2 the comparison must go through compactness instead: equicontinuity of the translates, identification of every limit point as an integral curve, and uniqueness of integral curves. The last step is where global integrability is used, and it cannot be replaced by a quantitative estimate.

Under A2′ the iterates may be unbounded, so no compactness is available, and the path and the flow line must be kept inside the region where FFF is controlled for the whole window [t,t+T][t,t+T][t,t+T].

Formalization scope

  • Space Rd\mathbb R^dRd is EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin d); time is ℝ≥0 for the pseudotrajectory and ℝ inside integrals. Sequences are ℕ → · with the paper's indices; γ0\gamma_0γ0​ and U0U_0U0​ are unused.
  • m(t)m(t)m(t) is the largest kkk with τk≤t\tau_k\le tτk​≤t, so the divisor γm(t)+1\gamma_{m(t)+1}γm(t)+1​ is positive even when some steps vanish.
  • Limits are written with ε\varepsilonε; the suprema that remain (Δ\DeltaΔ, sup⁡γˉ\sup\bar\gammasupγˉ​) are over bounded nonempty sets, and U‾\overline UU is a step function with finitely many pieces on bounded intervals, so no integral or supremum takes a default value.
  • The flow of FFF is a function satisfying the integral-curve property, together with global integrability (existence and uniqueness of integral curves on R\mathbb RR); continuity of the flow is not assumed.
  • A2′ is read with a uniform neighbourhood: FFF is Lipschitz and bounded on {y:dist⁡(y,{xn})<r}\{y:\operatorname{dist}(y,\{x_n\})<r\}{y:dist(y,{xn​})<r} for some r>0r>0r>0. Under the reading "some open set containing {xn}\{x_n\}{xn​}" the proposition fails for unbounded iterates.
  • Theorem 3.2 is stated for flows on C0(R,M)C^0(\mathbb R,M)C0(R,M) (compact-open topology); for semiflows with the convention Φp(t)=p\Phi^p(t)=pΦp(t)=p for t<0t<0t<0, the implication (i)⇒(ii) is false as printed.

Trivializing formalizations are ruled out: the goal keeps both alternatives A2 and A2′ (neither a global Lipschitz condition nor bounded iterates is assumed in place of the disjunction), XXX is the explicit piecewise affine interpolation rather than any curve with the desired property, and the constant in (11) is fixed before the sequences, so it cannot depend on the run.

A complete development needs Gronwall's inequality (in Mathlib), Arzelà–Ascoli on C0(R,M)C^0(\mathbb R,M)C0(R,M), continuous dependence of solutions on initial data under uniqueness (Kamke's theorem, not in Mathlib), and interval integrals of step functions. The asymptotic pseudotrajectory definitions and Theorem 3.2 are reusable for the other missions on these notes. Proofs of individual milestones are welcome; Eq. (9) and the comparison of XXX and X‾\overline XX are the natural entry points.

Selected references

  • M. Benaïm, Dynamics of stochastic approximation algorithms, Séminaire de Probabilités XXXIII, Lecture Notes in Math. 1709, Springer, 1999, pp. 1–68. https://doi.org/10.1007/BFb0096509
  • M. Benaïm and M. W. Hirsch, Asymptotic pseudotrajectories and chain recurrent flows, with applications, J. Dynam. Differential Equations 8 (1996), 141–176. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02218617
  • M. Métivier and P. Priouret, Théorèmes de convergence presque sûre pour une classe d'algorithmes stochastiques à pas décroissant, Probab. Theory Related Fields 74 (1987), 403–428. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00699098
  • H. J. Kushner and G. G. Yin, Stochastic Approximation Algorithms and Applications, Springer, 1997. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4899-2696-8
  • L. Ljung, Analysis of recursive stochastic algorithms, IEEE Trans. Automat. Control 22 (1977), 551–575. https://doi.org/10.1109/TAC.1977.1101561
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Control TheoryMathematical PhysicsOptimization+2·Captain: mikedeng1

Optimization of Mean-field Spin Glasses III: The Lagrangian Value of the Stochastic Control Problem Equals the Parisi FunctionalResearch Paper

Motivation

The ground-state energy of a mixed ppp-spin spin glass, OPTN=max⁡σ∈{±1}NHN(σ)/N\mathsf{OPT}_N=\max_{\sigma\in\{\pm1\}^N}H_N(\sigma)/NOPTN​=maxσ∈{±1}N​HN​(σ)/N, converges almost surely to the infimum of the Parisi functional over non-decreasing order parameters (Auffinger–Chen 2017). El Alaoui, Montanari and Sellke (arXiv:2001.00904v1) study algorithms that find near-optimal configurations. They introduce incremental approximate message passing (IAMP) and show that, among a broad class of such algorithms, the best achievable energy is the infimum of the Parisi functional over a larger space of order parameters (their Theorem 4).

The upper bound in Theorem 4 is reduced, in Section 4 of the paper, to a stochastic optimal control problem. The energy reached by a message-passing algorithm becomes the objective of a control problem driven by a Brownian motion, with a terminal constraint and a variance constraint. The variance constraint is removed by a Lagrange multiplier 12ξ′′γ\tfrac12\xi''\gamma21​ξ′′γ. Proposition 4.1 states that the resulting Lagrangian value is exactly the Parisi functional P(γ)\mathsf P(\gamma)P(γ). This mission formalizes that duality and the verification argument behind it (Section 7).

Setting

Mixture. Real coefficients (ck)k≥2(c_k)_{k\ge2}(ck​)k≥2​ define the mixture ξ(t)=∑k≥2ck2tk\xi(t)=\sum_{k\ge2}c_k^2t^kξ(t)=∑k≥2​ck2​tk, with the standing assumption ξ(1+ε)<∞\xi(1+\varepsilon)<\inftyξ(1+ε)<∞ for some ε>0\varepsilon>0ε>0. Its derivatives ξ′\xi'ξ′, ξ′′\xi''ξ′′ are nonnegative and nondecreasing on [0,1][0,1][0,1].

Order parameters. SF+\mathsf{SF}_+SF+​ is the set of nonnegative step functions

γ=∑i=1mγi I[ti−1,ti),0=t0<t1<⋯<tm=1, γi≥0.\gamma=\sum_{i=1}^m\gamma_i\,\mathbb I_{[t_{i-1},t_i)},\qquad 0=t_0<t_1<\dots<t_m=1,\ \gamma_i\ge0 .γ=i=1∑m​γi​I[ti−1​,ti​)​,0=t0​<t1​<⋯<tm​=1, γi​≥0.

Put ν(t)=∫t1ξ′′(s)γ(s) ds\nu(t)=\int_t^1\xi''(s)\gamma(s)\,dsν(t)=∫t1​ξ′′(s)γ(s)ds.

Parisi PDE and functional. Φγ:[0,1]×R→R\Phi_\gamma:[0,1]\times\mathbb R\to\mathbb RΦγ​:[0,1]×R→R solves

∂tΦγ+12ξ′′(t)(∂x2Φγ+γ(t)(∂xΦγ)2)=0,Φγ(1,x)=∣x∣.\partial_t\Phi_\gamma+\tfrac12\xi''(t)\big(\partial_x^2\Phi_\gamma+\gamma(t)(\partial_x\Phi_\gamma)^2\big)=0,\qquad\Phi_\gamma(1,x)=|x| .∂t​Φγ​+21​ξ′′(t)(∂x2​Φγ​+γ(t)(∂x​Φγ​)2)=0,Φγ​(1,x)=∣x∣.

For γ∈SF+\gamma\in\mathsf{SF}_+γ∈SF+​ it is given explicitly by the Cole–Hopf recursion: with r(t)=ξ′(1)−ξ′(t)r(t)=\xi'(1)-\xi'(t)r(t)=ξ′(1)−ξ′(t) and G∼N(0,1)G\sim\mathsf N(0,1)G∼N(0,1), for t∈[ti−1,ti)t\in[t_{i-1},t_i)t∈[ti−1​,ti​),

Φγ(t,x)=1γilog⁡Eexp⁡{γiΦγ(ti,x+r(t)−r(ti) G)}.\Phi_\gamma(t,x)=\frac1{\gamma_i}\log\mathbb E\exp\big\{\gamma_i\Phi_\gamma(t_i,x+\sqrt{r(t)-r(t_i)}\,G)\big\}.Φγ​(t,x)=γi​1​logEexp{γi​Φγ​(ti​,x+r(t)−r(ti​)​G)}.

The Parisi functional is P(γ)=Φγ(0,0)−12∫01t ξ′′(t)γ(t) dt\mathsf P(\gamma)=\Phi_\gamma(0,0)-\tfrac12\int_0^1t\,\xi''(t)\gamma(t)\,dtP(γ)=Φγ​(0,0)−21​∫01​tξ′′(t)γ(t)dt.

Control problem. Let BBB be a standard Brownian motion. A control u∈D[t,1]u\in D[t,1]u∈D[t,1] is a process on [t,1][t,1][t,1], progressively measurable for the filtration of (Br)r∈[t,1](B_r)_{r\in[t,1]}(Br​)r∈[t,1]​, with E∫t1ξ′′(s)us2 ds<∞\mathbb E\int_t^1\xi''(s)u_s^2\,ds<\inftyE∫t1​ξ′′(s)us2​ds<∞. The value is

Jγ(t,z)=sup⁡u∈D[t,1]E[∫t1ξ′′(s)us ds+12∫t1ν(s)(ξ′′(s)us2−1)ds]s.t.z+∫t1ξ′′(s) us dBs∈(−1,1) a.s.\mathcal J_\gamma(t,z)=\sup_{u\in D[t,1]}\mathbb E\Big[\int_t^1\xi''(s)u_s\,ds+\frac12\int_t^1\nu(s)\big(\xi''(s)u_s^2-1\big)ds\Big]\quad\text{s.t.}\quad z+\int_t^1\sqrt{\xi''(s)}\,u_s\,dB_s\in(-1,1)\ \text{a.s.}Jγ​(t,z)=u∈D[t,1]sup​E[∫t1​ξ′′(s)us​ds+21​∫t1​ν(s)(ξ′′(s)us2​−1)ds]s.t.z+∫t1​ξ′′(s)​us​dBs​∈(−1,1) a.s.

Candidate value function. With Φγ∗(t,z)=inf⁡x{Φγ(t,x)−xz}\Phi^*_\gamma(t,z)=\inf_x\{\Phi_\gamma(t,x)-xz\}Φγ∗​(t,z)=infx​{Φγ​(t,x)−xz},

V(t,z)=Φγ∗(t,z)−12ν(t)z2−12∫t1ν(s) ds.V(t,z)=\Phi^*_\gamma(t,z)-\tfrac12\nu(t)z^2-\tfrac12\int_t^1\nu(s)\,ds .V(t,z)=Φγ∗​(t,z)−21​ν(t)z2−21​∫t1​ν(s)ds.

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 4.1

Jγ(0,0)=P(γ)for every γ∈SF+.\mathcal J_\gamma(0,0)=\mathsf P(\gamma)\qquad\text{for every }\gamma\in\mathsf{SF}_+ .Jγ​(0,0)=P(γ)for every γ∈SF+​.

Milestones

  1. Lemma 7.2 (a)–(e): Φγ(t,⋅)\Phi_\gamma(t,\cdot)Φγ​(t,⋅) is smooth for t<1t<1t<1, with derivatives jointly continuous on [0,1)×R[0,1)\times\mathbb R[0,1)×R and C1C^1C1 in time where γ\gammaγ is constant. The range of ∂xΦγ(t,⋅)\partial_x\Phi_\gamma(t,\cdot)∂x​Φγ​(t,⋅) is (−1,1)(-1,1)(−1,1), it is strictly increasing, and 0<∂x2Φγ(t′,x)≤C(t,γ)0<\partial_x^2\Phi_\gamma(t',x)\le C(t,\gamma)0<∂x2​Φγ​(t′,x)≤C(t,γ) for t′≤tt'\le tt′≤t.
  2. Envelope identities (proof of Lemma 7.3): ∂zΦγ∗(t,z)=−xt∗(z)\partial_z\Phi^*_\gamma(t,z)=-x^*_t(z)∂z​Φγ∗​(t,z)=−xt∗​(z) and ∂z2Φγ∗(t,z)=−1/∂x2Φγ(t,xt∗(z))\partial_z^2\Phi^*_\gamma(t,z)=-1/\partial_x^2\Phi_\gamma(t,x^*_t(z))∂z2​Φγ∗​(t,z)=−1/∂x2​Φγ​(t,xt∗​(z)), where xt∗(z)x^*_t(z)xt∗​(z) is the unique root of ∂xΦγ(t,x)=z\partial_x\Phi_\gamma(t,x)=z∂x​Φγ​(t,x)=z.
  3. Lemma 7.3: VVV solves the HJB equation
∂tV+ξ′′(t)sup⁡λ∈R{λ+λ22(ν(t)+∂z2V)}−12ν(t)=0,V(1,z)=0.\partial_tV+\xi''(t)\sup_{\lambda\in\mathbb R}\Big\{\lambda+\frac{\lambda^2}{2}\big(\nu(t)+\partial_z^2V\big)\Big\}-\frac12\nu(t)=0,\qquad V(1,z)=0 .∂t​V+ξ′′(t)λ∈Rsup​{λ+2λ2​(ν(t)+∂z2​V)}−21​ν(t)=0,V(1,z)=0.
  1. Evaluation at the origin: V(0,0)=P(γ)V(0,0)=\mathsf P(\gamma)V(0,0)=P(γ).
  2. Proposition 7.1: Jγ(t,z)=V(t,z)\mathcal J_\gamma(t,z)=V(t,z)Jγ​(t,z)=V(t,z) for all (t,z)∈[0,1]×(−1,1)(t,z)\in[0,1]\times(-1,1)(t,z)∈[0,1]×(−1,1).

Proposition 7.1 at (0,0)(0,0)(0,0) together with milestone 4 gives the goal.

Significance

The result. By integration by parts (Eq. (4.4) of the paper), Jγ(0,0)\mathcal J_\gamma(0,0)Jγ​(0,0) bounds the value of the constrained control problem (4.2). That problem in turn bounds the asymptotic energy of every message-passing algorithm in the class of Theorem 4. Proposition 4.1 turns the bound into inf⁡γ∈SF+P(γ)\inf_{\gamma\in\mathsf{SF}_+}\mathsf P(\gamma)infγ∈SF+​​P(γ), which is the analytic core of the optimality statement for IAMP. It is also an instance of a broader principle: the Parisi functional has a stochastic-control representation (Jagannath–Tobasco 2016).

Formalizing it. The result is proved in the paper; no machine-checked version exists. A complete formalization needs a verification theorem for a control problem with a state constraint (M1∈(−1,1)M_1\in(-1,1)M1​∈(−1,1)), Itô's formula for a C1,2C^{1,2}C1,2 function that is only piecewise C1C^1C1 in time, and quantitative regularity of the Cole–Hopf solution. Each of these is reusable well beyond spin glasses.

Difficulty

The value function Jγ\mathcal J_\gammaJγ​ is not known to be smooth, and the dynamic-programming equation (4.6) is only heuristic. The proof therefore guesses a solution and verifies it. Two steps carry the difficulty.

First, the guess VVV is a Legendre transform. Its regularity, and the sign ν+∂z2V<0\nu+\partial_z^2V<0ν+∂z2​V<0 that makes the HJB supremum finite, rest on strict convexity and bounded curvature of Φγ(t,⋅)\Phi_\gamma(t,\cdot)Φγ​(t,⋅) (Lemma 7.2). These must be proved by induction through the Cole–Hopf recursion, including the steps with γi=0\gamma_i=0γi​=0.

Second, the verification argument applies Itô's formula to V(s,Msu)V(s,M^u_s)V(s,Msu​), where MuM^uMu is a martingale confined to (−1,1)(-1,1)(−1,1) and VVV is only C1C^1C1 in time between the jumps of γ\gammaγ. The boundary θ→1\theta\to1θ→1 needs a dominated-convergence argument, and attaining the supremum needs an explicit optimal feedback control built from an SDE.

Formalization scope

  • Mixture. ξ\xiξ is a coefficient sequence c:N→Rc:\mathbb N\to\mathbb Rc:N→R with c0=c1=0c_0=c_1=0c0​=c1​=0 imposed. ξ′\xi'ξ′ and ξ′′\xi''ξ′′ are explicit termwise series.
  • Step functions. SF+\mathsf{SF}_+SF+​ is represented by its data (breakpoints and values). γ\gammaγ is extended by 000 outside [0,1)[0,1)[0,1); its value at t=1t=1t=1 never matters.
  • Cole–Hopf. Φγ\Phi_\gammaΦγ​ is defined by the recursion. When γi=0\gamma_i=0γi​=0, the recursion uses its limit, the heat semigroup, instead of dividing by zero. Expectations over GGG are integrals against gaussianReal 0 1.
  • Derivatives. Space derivatives are deriv/iteratedDeriv. Time derivatives are right derivatives, because γ\gammaγ jumps.
  • Legendre transform. Φγ∗\Phi^*_\gammaΦγ∗​ is a real infimum, used only for ∣z∣<1|z|<1∣z∣<1, where it is bounded below.
  • Brownian motion and filtration. BBB is a Mathlib IsBrownianReal process on R≥0\mathbb R_{\ge0}R≥0​, with each BrB_rBr​ measurable. The filtration is Fst=σ(Br:t≤r≤s)\mathcal F^t_s=\sigma(B_r:t\le r\le s)Fst​=σ(Br​:t≤r≤s).
  • Stochastic integral. It is the L2L^2L2 Itô integral of the published definition Peng1990.SMP.IsItoIntegral (horizon 111), whose integrability class is exactly E∫ξ′′u2<∞\mathbb E\int\xi''u^2<\inftyE∫ξ′′u2<∞.
  • Supremum. Jγ(t,z)=v\mathcal J_\gamma(t,z)=vJγ​(t,z)=v is stated as "vvv is the least upper bound of the objective values of admissible controls" (IsLUB), never as a real sSup. A default value of an empty or unbounded supremum therefore cannot make a statement trivially true.
  • Disclosed hypothesis. Lemma 7.2, the envelope identities and Lemma 7.3 assume that ξ\xiξ is not identically zero (some ck≠0c_k\neq0ck​=0). For ξ≡0\xi\equiv0ξ≡0 one has Φγ(t,x)=∣x∣\Phi_\gamma(t,x)=|x|Φγ​(t,x)=∣x∣ for all ttt, and these statements fail. Proposition 7.1, the evaluation at the origin and the goal need no such hypothesis.
  • Lemma 7.3. The statement includes the inequality ν+∂z2V<0\nu+\partial_z^2V<0ν+∂z2​V<0, which the page proves. This rules out reading the HJB supremum as a default value.

The paper's algorithmic results (Theorems 2–4, Corollary 2.2) are out of scope. They need the AMP and state-evolution machinery of Section 5 and Appendix A, and an informal model of computation. The optional bound (4.4) is not stated.

Welcome contributions include the regularity of Cole–Hopf solutions (Gaussian convolution, log-moment-generating functions), a general verification theorem for one-dimensional controlled martingales with a terminal state constraint, and Itô's formula for C1,2C^{1,2}C1,2 functions.

Selected references

  • A. El Alaoui, A. Montanari, M. Sellke, Optimization of Mean-field Spin Glasses, arXiv:2001.00904v1, 2020. https://arxiv.org/abs/2001.00904
  • A. Auffinger, W.-K. Chen, Parisi formula for the ground state energy in the mixed p-spin model, Ann. Probab. 45(6b), 2017. https://arxiv.org/abs/1606.05335
  • A. Jagannath, I. Tobasco, A dynamic programming approach to the Parisi functional, Proc. AMS 144, 2016. https://arxiv.org/abs/1502.04398
  • N. Touzi, Optimal Stochastic Control, Stochastic Target Problems, and Backward SDE, Fields Institute Monographs 29, Springer, 2012 (cited as [Tou12] in the paper; the verification argument of Section 7 follows its Theorem 4.1).
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Probability·Captain: mikedeng1

Convergence in law of the minimum of a branching random walk: The Minimum Centred at (3/2) ln n Converges to a Gumbel Law Shifted by the Derivative MartingaleResearch Paper

Motivation

A branching random walk is the simplest model of a population that both reproduces and moves: every particle dies and leaves a random cloud of children displaced relative to it. Its extreme particles control the speed of travelling waves in reaction–diffusion equations (the KPP/Fisher equation), the free energy of directed polymers on trees, the cover and hitting times of random walks on trees, and the maxima of log-correlated fields such as the two-dimensional Gaussian free field. The basic quantity is the position of the leftmost particle at time nnn.

Timeline.

  • 1974–1976: Hammersley, Kingman and Biggins prove the law of large numbers Mn/n→γM_n/n\to\gammaMn​/n→γ for the minimum.
  • 1978–1983: Bramson shows that for branching Brownian motion the maximum, centred at 2 t−322ln⁡t\sqrt2\,t-\frac{3}{2\sqrt2}\ln t2​t−22​3​lnt, converges in law (Bramson 1983). Lalley and Sellke (1987, Ann. Probab. 15) identify the limit as a Gumbel law randomly shifted by the limit of the derivative martingale.
  • 2004: Biggins and Kyprianou prove that the derivative martingale of a branching random walk converges to a limit that is non-trivial in the boundary case (Adv. Appl. Probab. 36).
  • 2009: Hu and Shi (arXiv:math/0702799) and Addario-Berry and Reed (Ann. Probab. 37) find the logarithmic correction: Mn−32ln⁡nM_n-\frac32\ln nMn​−23​lnn is tight. Bramson and Zeitouni (2009) obtain tightness around the median under tail assumptions.
  • 2013: Aïdékon proves convergence in law of Mn−32ln⁡nM_n-\frac32\ln nMn​−23​lnn for general non-lattice branching random walks, the result this mission formalizes (arXiv:1101.1810, Ann. Probab. 41 (2013)).

Setting

Let L\mathcal LL be a point process on R\mathbb RR: a random, possibly infinite, collection of points. Start one particle at 000. At time 111 it dies and leaves children at the points of L\mathcal LL; each particle of generation nnn then dies and leaves children at the points of an independent copy of L\mathcal LL, translated to its own position. Vertices of the genealogical tree T\mathbb TT (a Galton–Watson tree) are labelled by finite words u=(i0,…,ik−1)u=(i_0,\dots,i_{k-1})u=(i0​,…,ik−1​); ∣u∣=k|u|=k∣u∣=k is the generation, uju_juj​ the ancestor at generation jjj, and V(u)V(u)V(u) the position.

The paper works in the boundary case

E[∑∣x∣=11]>1,E[∑∣x∣=1e−V(x)]=1,E[∑∣x∣=1V(x)e−V(x)]=0,(1.1)\mathbf E\Big[\sum_{|x|=1}1\Big]>1,\qquad \mathbf E\Big[\sum_{|x|=1}e^{-V(x)}\Big]=1,\qquad \mathbf E\Big[\sum_{|x|=1}V(x)e^{-V(x)}\Big]=0,\tag{1.1}E[∣x∣=1∑​1]>1,E[∣x∣=1∑​e−V(x)]=1,E[∣x∣=1∑​V(x)e−V(x)]=0,(1.1)

and assumes throughout that L\mathcal LL is non-lattice and that

E[∑∣x∣=1V(x)2e−V(x)]<∞,E[X(ln⁡+X)2]<∞,E[X~ln⁡+X~]<∞,(1.3–1.4)\mathbf E\Big[\sum_{|x|=1}V(x)^2e^{-V(x)}\Big]<\infty,\qquad \mathbf E\big[X(\ln_+X)^2\big]<\infty,\qquad \mathbf E\big[\tilde X\ln_+\tilde X\big]<\infty,\tag{1.3–1.4}E[∣x∣=1∑​V(x)2e−V(x)]<∞,E[X(ln+​X)2]<∞,E[X~ln+​X~]<∞,(1.3–1.4)

with X=∑∣x∣=1e−V(x)X=\sum_{|x|=1}e^{-V(x)}X=∑∣x∣=1​e−V(x) and X~=∑∣x∣=1V(x)+e−V(x)\tilde X=\sum_{|x|=1}V(x)_+e^{-V(x)}X~=∑∣x∣=1​V(x)+​e−V(x). The objects of the main theorem are the minimum Mn=min⁡{V(x):∣x∣=n}M_n=\min\{V(x):|x|=n\}Mn​=min{V(x):∣x∣=n} (with min⁡∅=+∞\min\varnothing=+\inftymin∅=+∞) and the derivative martingale

Dn=∑∣x∣=nV(x)e−V(x),D_n=\sum_{|x|=n}V(x)e^{-V(x)},Dn​=∣x∣=n∑​V(x)e−V(x),

which converges almost surely to a limit D∞≥0D_\infty\ge0D∞​≥0, strictly positive on non-extinction. A standard example: two children with i.i.d. normal displacements of mean and variance 2ln⁡22\ln22ln2.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 1.1

There is a constant C∗∈(0,∞)C^*\in(0,\infty)C∗∈(0,∞) such that for every real xxx,

lim⁡n→∞P(Mn≥32ln⁡n+x)=E[e−C∗exD∞].\lim_{n\to\infty}\mathbf P\Big(M_n\ge\tfrac32\ln n+x\Big)=\mathbf E\Big[e^{-C^*e^xD_\infty}\Big].n→∞lim​P(Mn​≥23​lnn+x)=E[e−C∗exD∞​].

The constant is not specified numerically. It is the product C1c0C_1c_0C1​c0​ of the constants below.

Milestones, in the order the proof uses them

  1. Many-to-one lemma (2.1): Ea[∑∣x∣=ng(V(x1),…,V(xn))]=Ea[eSn−ag(S1,…,Sn)]\mathbf E_a[\sum_{|x|=n}g(V(x_1),\dots,V(x_n))]=\mathbf E_a[e^{S_n-a}g(S_1,\dots,S_n)]Ea​[∑∣x∣=n​g(V(x1​),…,V(xn​))]=Ea​[eSn​−ag(S1​,…,Sn​)] for a centred random walk SSS.
  2. Renewal function (2.13): the renewal function RRR of the strict descending ladder heights of SSS satisfies R(x)/x→c0>0R(x)/x\to c_0>0R(x)/x→c0​>0.
  3. Corollary 3.2 and Proposition 1.2: for the walk killed below 000, ez P(Mnkill<32ln⁡n−z)→C1e^z\,\mathbf P(M_n^{\rm kill}<\frac32\ln n-z)\to C_1ezP(Mnkill​<23​lnn−z)→C1​, uniformly for z∈[A,32ln⁡n−A]z\in[A,\frac32\ln n-A]z∈[A,23​lnn−A].
  4. Global minimum bound: P(∃u∈T:V(u)≤−y)≤e−y\mathbf P(\exists u\in\mathbb T: V(u)\le-y)\le e^{-y}P(∃u∈T:V(u)≤−y)≤e−y.
  5. Corollary 3.5: P(Mn≤32ln⁡n−y)≤(1+c10(1+y))e−y\mathbf P(M_n\le\frac32\ln n-y)\le(1+c_{10}(1+y))e^{-y}P(Mn​≤23​lnn−y)≤(1+c10​(1+y))e−y.
  6. Proposition 4.1: ezzP(Mn<32ln⁡n−z)→C1c0\frac{e^z}{z}\mathbf P(M_n<\frac32\ln n-z)\to C_1c_0zez​P(Mn​<23​lnn−z)→C1​c0​, uniformly on the same window.
  7. Derivative martingale: Dn→D∞D_n\to D_\inftyDn​→D∞​ a.s., D∞≥0D_\infty\ge0D∞​≥0, D∞>0D_\infty>0D∞​>0 a.s. on non-extinction.
  8. (5.2): ∑u∈Z[A]V(u)e−V(u)→D∞\sum_{u\in\mathcal Z[A]}V(u)e^{-V(u)}\to D_\infty∑u∈Z[A]​V(u)e−V(u)→D∞​ a.s. as A→∞A\to\inftyA→∞, where Z[A]\mathcal Z[A]Z[A] is the set of particles absorbed at level AAA.

Significance

The theorem identifies the limit law of the extreme particle: Mn−32ln⁡nM_n-\frac32\ln nMn​−23​lnn converges in law, on the event of survival, to a Gumbel variable shifted by −ln⁡(C∗D∞)-\ln(C^*D_\infty)−ln(C∗D∞​). It is the input for the study of the whole extremal process of the branching random walk seen from its leftmost particle (Madaule, J. Theoret. Probab., 2017), and it is the discrete-time counterpart of the Bramson and Lalley–Sellke results that later work on log-correlated fields takes as its template. The 32\frac3223​ correction and the role of the derivative martingale are the signature of the boundary case, and of log-correlated extremes generally.

The result is proved and published. It has not been formalized: Mathlib has no branching processes, no Galton–Watson trees with positions, no renewal theory, and no derivative martingale. This mission produces the first machine-checkable statement of the convergence-in-law theorem and of the intermediate results it rests on. A complete development would also give reusable formal versions of the many-to-one lemma and of renewal theory for ladder heights.

Difficulty

The first-moment computation through the many-to-one lemma gives the wrong centring. It predicts that the minimum sits near 12ln⁡n\frac12\ln n21​lnn, because the expected number of particles below a level is dominated by rare realisations. The true centring 32ln⁡n\frac32\ln n23​lnn only appears after restricting to particles whose ancestral path stays above a barrier, and this restriction requires random-walk estimates (ballot theorems and local limit theorems for walks conditioned to stay positive) that hold uniformly in a window of starting points. A second difficulty is that the limit must be identified, not only shown to exist. Tightness and subsequence arguments do not give the factor D∞D_\inftyD∞​; the identification needs the precise tail C1c0 z e−zC_1c_0\,z\,e^{-z}C1​c0​ze−z of Proposition 4.1, with a known constant, and the almost-sure behaviour of the sum over the stopping line Z[A]\mathcal Z[A]Z[A].

Formalization scope

  • Point process. The law LLL of L\mathcal LL is a probability measure on configurations (N,p)∈N∞×(N→R)(N,p)\in\mathbb N_\infty\times(\mathbb N\to\mathbb R)(N,p)∈N∞​×(N→R), where the points are pip_ipi​ for i<Ni<Ni<N.
  • Tree. Labels are List ℕ. The branching random walk is any family (ξu)u(\xi_u)_{u}(ξu​)u​ of independent measurable configurations of law LLL on a probability space. Every theorem holds for every such realisation, and a canonical realisation exists (product space).
  • Assumptions. Every expectation in (1.1), (1.3), (1.4) is a lower Lebesgue integral of a [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞]-valued sum. The signed condition in (1.1) is "the expectations of ∑V+e−V\sum V_+e^{-V}∑V+​e−V and ∑V−e−V\sum V_-e^{-V}∑V−​e−V are equal and finite". Non-lattice means: there are no a∈Ra\in\mathbb Ra∈R and d>0d>0d>0 with all points a.s. in a+dZa+d\mathbb Za+dZ.
  • Which assumptions where. The goal and §§3–5 assume all of them. The many-to-one lemma and the global minimum bound assume only (1.1), and the derivative-martingale milestone drops non-lattice, as in Appendix A.
  • Minima and limits. MnM_nMn​ and MnkillM_n^{\rm kill}Mnkill​ are extended reals, +∞+\infty+∞ on an empty generation, so extinction lies in {Mn≥32ln⁡n+x}\{M_n\ge\frac32\ln n+x\}{Mn​≥23​lnn+x}. DnD_nDn​ is a real sum over generation nnn, absolutely summable almost surely, and D∞D_\inftyD∞​ is its pointwise limit. The expectation in the goal is a lower integral of e−C∗exD∞∈(0,1]e^{-C^*e^xD_\infty}\in(0,1]e−C∗exD∞​∈(0,1].
  • Constants. C∗C^*C∗ is chosen before xxx. In Proposition 4.1, C1C_1C1​ and c0c_0c0​ are hypotheses tied to Proposition 1.2 and (2.13), not re-chosen. Corollaries 3.2 and 3.5 assert existence of their constants without Proposition 3.1 and Corollary 3.4.
  • Not trivial. A formalization with a real-valued MnM_nMn​ equal to 000 on extinction, a D∞D_\inftyD∞​ never shown to be the limit, or a C∗C^*C∗ depending on xxx would not be this theorem. The definitions above rule out each of these.

Out of scope: the spine-measure lemmas (Lemmas 2.3, 3.3, 3.8–3.10, 4.3), Propositions 2.1–2.2 cited from Lyons, and Appendices B–C. Contributions are welcome on all milestones. The many-to-one lemma and the renewal statement are independent of the rest and are natural first targets.

Selected references

  • E. Aïdékon, Convergence in law of the minimum of a branching random walk, Ann. Probab. 41(3A) (2013) 1362–1426. arXiv:1101.1810, doi:10.1214/12-AOP750
  • J. D. Biggins, A. E. Kyprianou, Measure change in multitype branching, Adv. Appl. Probab. 36 (2004) 544–581. Reference [7] of Aïdékon (2013), arXiv:1101.1810, p. 68
  • M. Bramson, Convergence of solutions of the Kolmogorov equation to travelling waves, Mem. Amer. Math. Soc. 44, no. 285 (1983). doi:10.1090/memo/0285
  • S. P. Lalley, T. Sellke, A conditional limit theorem for the frontier of a branching Brownian motion, Ann. Probab. 15 (1987) 1052–1061. Reference [21] of Aïdékon (2013), arXiv:1101.1810, p. 69
  • Y. Hu, Z. Shi, Minimal position and critical martingale convergence in branching random walks, and directed polymers on disordered trees, Ann. Probab. 37 (2009) 742–789. arXiv:math/0702799
  • L. Addario-Berry, B. Reed, Minima in branching random walks, Ann. Probab. 37 (2009) 1044–1079. Reference [1] of Aïdékon (2013), arXiv:1101.1810, p. 68
  • R. Lyons, A simple path to Biggins' martingale convergence for branching random walk, in Classical and Modern Branching Processes, IMA Vol. Math. Appl. 84 (1997) 217–221. Reference [22] of Aïdékon (2013), arXiv:1101.1810, p. 69
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Nonzero-Sum Stochastic Differential Games with Impulse Controls: A Verification Theorem with Applications 1: Regular Solutions of the Quasi-Variational Inequalities Give Nash Equilibrium PayoffsResearch Paper

Motivation

Many economic and engineering systems are steered by agents who act at discrete instants rather than continuously: a central bank intervenes on an exchange rate, two energy producers adjust a shared stock, a firm rebalances inventory. Each action has a fixed cost, so continuous control is not realistic. The mathematical model is impulse control: the state follows a diffusion, and a controller may shift it at chosen stopping times by paying a cost. The single-controller theory is classical (Øksendal and Sulem, Applied Stochastic Control of Jump Diffusions, 2007). When two controllers with different objectives act on the same state, the result is a nonzero-sum stochastic differential game with impulse controls.

Before Aïd, Basei, Callegaro, Campi and Vargiolu, the literature on games with impulse controls was almost entirely zero-sum: Cosso (SIAM J. Control Optim., 2013) characterised the value of zero-sum impulse games through a double-obstacle quasi-variational inequality in the viscosity sense. Their paper (Math. Oper. Res. 45(1), 2020; arXiv:1605.00039) gives the first general formulation of the nonzero-sum case together with a verification theorem: a system of quasi-variational inequalities (QVIs) whose sufficiently regular solutions are the equilibrium payoffs. Its Section 4 then computes Nash equilibria in closed form for a one-dimensional game.

Setting

A kkk-dimensional Brownian motion WWW on a filtered probability space satisfying the usual conditions drives the state equation

dYs=b(Ys) ds+σ(Ys) dWs,Ys∈Rd,dY_s=b(Y_s)\,ds+\sigma(Y_s)\,dW_s ,\qquad Y_s\in\mathbb R^d,dYs​=b(Ys​)ds+σ(Ys​)dWs​,Ys​∈Rd,

with globally Lipschitz bbb and σ\sigmaσ. The game takes place in an open set S⊆RdS\subseteq\mathbb R^dS⊆Rd and ends at the exit time τS\tau_SτS​ of the state from SSS. Each of two players i∈{1,2}i\in\{1,2\}i∈{1,2} has a nonempty impulse set Zi⊆RliZ_i\subseteq\mathbb R^{l_i}Zi​⊆Rli​ and a continuous impulse map Γi:S×Zi→S\Gamma^i:S\times Z_i\to SΓi:S×Zi​→S: an intervention with impulse δ\deltaδ moves the state from yyy to Γi(y,δ)\Gamma^i(y,\delta)Γi(y,δ).

A strategy of player iii is a pair φi=(Ci,ξi)\varphi_i=(\mathcal C_i,\xi_i)φi​=(Ci​,ξi​) with Ci⊆S\mathcal C_i\subseteq SCi​⊆S open and ξi:S→Zi\xi_i:S\to Z_iξi​:S→Zi​ continuous. Player iii intervenes as soon as the state leaves Ci\mathcal C_iCi​, with impulse ξi(y)\xi_i(y)ξi​(y) at the current state yyy. Player 1 has priority on ties, and several interventions may happen at the same instant. This defines the controlled process XXX, the intervention times τi,n\tau_{i,n}τi,n​ and impulses δi,n\delta_{i,n}δi,n​ of each player, and the states X(τi,n)−X_{(\tau_{i,n})^-}X(τi,n​)−​ just before each intervention. The payoff of player iii is

Ji(x;φ1,φ2)=E[∫0τSe−ρisfi(Xs)ds+∑τi,n<τSe−ρiτi,nϕi(X(τi,n)−,δi,n)+∑τj,n<τSe−ρiτj,nψi(X(τj,n)−,δj,n)+e−ρiτShi(XτS)1{τS<∞}],J^i(x;\varphi_1,\varphi_2)=\mathbb E\Big[\int_0^{\tau_S}e^{-\rho_is}f_i(X_s)ds+\sum_{\tau_{i,n}<\tau_S}e^{-\rho_i\tau_{i,n}}\phi_i(X_{(\tau_{i,n})^-},\delta_{i,n})+\sum_{\tau_{j,n}<\tau_S}e^{-\rho_i\tau_{j,n}}\psi_i(X_{(\tau_{j,n})^-},\delta_{j,n})+e^{-\rho_i\tau_S}h_i(X_{\tau_S})\mathbf 1_{\{\tau_S<\infty\}}\Big],Ji(x;φ1​,φ2​)=E[∫0τS​​e−ρi​sfi​(Xs​)ds+τi,n​<τS​∑​e−ρi​τi,n​ϕi​(X(τi,n​)−​,δi,n​)+τj,n​<τS​∑​e−ρi​τj,n​ψi​(X(τj,n​)−​,δj,n​)+e−ρi​τS​hi​(XτS​​)1{τS​<∞}​],

where j≠ij\ne ij=i, ρi>0\rho_i>0ρi​>0, fif_ifi​ is a running payoff, ϕi\phi_iϕi​ the cost of one's own interventions, ψi\psi_iψi​ the gain from the opponent's, and hih_ihi​ a terminal payoff on ∂S\partial S∂S. A pair of strategies is xxx-admissible, (φ1,φ2)∈Φx(\varphi_1,\varphi_2)\in\Phi_x(φ1​,φ2​)∈Φx​, when these four terms are integrable, sup⁡s≤τS∣Xs∣\sup_{s\le\tau_S}|X_s|sups≤τS​​∣Xs​∣ has all moments, and the interventions do not accumulate before τS\tau_SτS​. A Nash equilibrium is a pair in Φx\Phi_xΦx​ from which no player gains by a unilateral admissible deviation.

Given candidate payoff functions V1,V2V_1,V_2V1​,V2​ on Sˉ\bar SSˉ, let δi(x)\delta_i(x)δi​(x) be the unique maximiser of Vi(Γi(x,δ))+ϕi(x,δ)V_i(\Gamma^i(x,\delta))+\phi_i(x,\delta)Vi​(Γi(x,δ))+ϕi​(x,δ) over ZiZ_iZi​. Define MiVi(x)=Vi(Γi(x,δi(x)))+ϕi(x,δi(x))\mathcal M_iV_i(x)=V_i(\Gamma^i(x,\delta_i(x)))+\phi_i(x,\delta_i(x))Mi​Vi​(x)=Vi​(Γi(x,δi​(x)))+ϕi​(x,δi​(x)), HiVi(x)=Vi(Γj(x,δj(x)))+ψi(x,δj(x))\mathcal H_iV_i(x)=V_i(\Gamma^j(x,\delta_j(x)))+\psi_i(x,\delta_j(x))Hi​Vi​(x)=Vi​(Γj(x,δj​(x)))+ψi​(x,δj​(x)), the continuation region Di={MiVi−Vi<0}\mathcal D_i=\{\mathcal M_iV_i-V_i<0\}Di​={Mi​Vi​−Vi​<0} and the generator AV=b⋅∇V+12tr⁡(σσtD2V)\mathcal AV=b\cdot\nabla V+\tfrac12\operatorname{tr}(\sigma\sigma^tD^2V)AV=b⋅∇V+21​tr(σσtD2V). The QVI system is

Vi=hi on ∂S,MjVj−Vj≤0 on S,HiVi−Vi=0 on {MjVj=Vj},max⁡{AVi−ρiVi+fi, MiVi−Vi}=0 on Dj.V_i=h_i\ \text{on }\partial S,\quad \mathcal M_jV_j-V_j\le0\ \text{on }S,\quad \mathcal H_iV_i-V_i=0\ \text{on }\{\mathcal M_jV_j=V_j\},\quad \max\{\mathcal AV_i-\rho_iV_i+f_i,\ \mathcal M_iV_i-V_i\}=0\ \text{on }\mathcal D_j .Vi​=hi​ on ∂S,Mj​Vj​−Vj​≤0 on S,Hi​Vi​−Vi​=0 on {Mj​Vj​=Vj​},max{AVi​−ρi​Vi​+fi​, Mi​Vi​−Vi​}=0 on Dj​.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3.3 (verification theorem)

Suppose V1,V2V_1,V_2V1​,V2​ solve the QVI system, Vi∈C2(Dj∖∂Di)∩C1(Dj)∩C(Sˉ)V_i\in C^2(\mathcal D_j\setminus\partial\mathcal D_i)\cap C^1(\mathcal D_j)\cap C(\bar S)Vi​∈C2(Dj​∖∂Di​)∩C1(Dj​)∩C(Sˉ) with polynomial growth, ∂Di\partial\mathcal D_i∂Di​ is a Lipschitz surface near which ViV_iVi​ has locally bounded first and second derivatives, x∈Sx\in Sx∈S, and the threshold pair φi∗=(Di,δi)\varphi_i^*=(\mathcal D_i,\delta_i)φi∗​=(Di​,δi​) is xxx-admissible. Then

(φ1∗,φ2∗) is a Nash equilibrium andVi(x)=Ji(x;φ1∗,φ2∗),i=1,2.(\varphi_1^*,\varphi_2^*)\ \text{is a Nash equilibrium and}\quad V_i(x)=J^i(x;\varphi_1^*,\varphi_2^*),\qquad i=1,2 .(φ1∗​,φ2∗​) is a Nash equilibrium andVi​(x)=Ji(x;φ1∗​,φ2∗​),i=1,2.

Milestones

  • Lemma 2.3: the controlled process is the concatenation of diffusion pieces, it jumps only at interventions, and between interventions it stays in C1∩C2\mathcal C_1\cap\mathcal C_2C1​∩C2​.
  • Remark 3.6, (3.8b), (3.8d), (3.8f): against φ2∗\varphi_2^*φ2∗​, the state stays in D2\mathcal D_2D2​, and player 2 intervenes only on {M2V2=V2}\{\mathcal M_2V_2=V_2\}{M2​V2​=V2​} with impulse δ2\delta_2δ2​.
  • Step 1 of the proof: V1(x)≥J1(x;φ1,φ2∗)V_1(x)\ge J^1(x;\varphi_1,\varphi_2^*)V1​(x)≥J1(x;φ1​,φ2∗​) for every admissible deviation φ1\varphi_1φ1​.
  • Step 2 of the proof: V1(x)=J1(x;φ1∗,φ2∗)V_1(x)=J^1(x;\varphi_1^*,\varphi_2^*)V1​(x)=J1(x;φ1∗​,φ2∗​).

The goal follows from Steps 1 and 2 and their mirror images for player 2.

Significance

The theorem turns the search for Nash equilibria of nonzero-sum impulse games, an infinite-dimensional fixed-point problem over strategy pairs, into a deterministic problem: find functions satisfying a system of coupled QVIs with prescribed regularity. The regularity conditions become smooth-pasting conditions, hence a system of algebraic equations; Section 4 of the paper solves it explicitly for a one-dimensional game with linear payoffs. A further consequence is structural: equilibrium payoffs need only be C2C^2C2 on the opponent's continuation region, which is what lets non-smooth, piecewise-defined candidates qualify.

The result is proved in the paper; no machine-checked version exists. A complete formalization would be the first verified verification theorem for impulse control, single-player or game, and would expose every convention of the model: priority on ties, simultaneous interventions, the treatment of exit, and the integrability of the payoff. Several of these conventions need correction on the page, as listed below.

Difficulty

The heuristic argument applies Itô's formula to e−ρ1tV1(Xt)e^{-\rho_1t}V_1(X_t)e−ρ1​tV1​(Xt​) and uses the QVIs term by term. This fails on two counts. First, V1V_1V1​ is only C1C^1C1 across the free boundary ∂D1\partial\mathcal D_1∂D1​, so Itô's formula does not apply directly. The paper mollifies V1V_1V1​ (following Øksendal's proof of his verification theorem for optimal stopping) and must control the second derivatives near a Lipschitz boundary. Second, the sums over interventions may be infinite and the horizon unbounded, so expectations and limits do not commute. The passage to the limit needs the integrability built into Φx\Phi_xΦx​ and the polynomial growth of ViV_iVi​. The stochastic-calculus infrastructure itself (Itô's formula for continuous semimartingales stopped at random times, strong solutions of Lipschitz SDEs restarted at stopping times) is largely missing from Mathlib.

Formalization scope

The Lean model is pathwise. A realization is a sequence of diffusion pieces, each solving the state equation from the random restart time with the restart value. The Itô integral is the published relation EthierKurtz.HasBrownianItoIntegral, and the stochastic basis uses the published You2015.Shared.UsualConditions and IsFBrownian. Times take values in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞] with e−ρ⋅∞=0e^{-\rho\cdot\infty}=0e−ρ⋅∞=0, and the state space is EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin d). Φx\Phi_xΦx​ asks for one admissible realization, while the Nash inequalities and the payoff identity hold on every admissible realization; strong uniqueness makes these readings equivalent.

The following deviate from the page and are disclosed in the items:

  1. δi\delta_iδi​ is assumed continuous, so that φi∗\varphi_i^*φi∗​ is a strategy.
  2. The fourth QVI is imposed on Dj∖∂Di\mathcal D_j\setminus\partial\mathcal D_iDj​∖∂Di​, where AVi\mathcal AV_iAVi​ exists.
  3. The exit time is αkˉ+1S\alpha^S_{\bar k+1}αkˉ+1S​, not the printed αkˉS\alpha^S_{\bar k}αkˉS​.
  4. The gain term of (2.7) is read with the opponent's interventions.
  5. The supremum in (2.8) is taken over [0,τS][0,\tau_S][0,τS​].
  6. Interventions accumulating at a finite τS\tau_SτS​ are excluded from Φx\Phi_xΦx​, since the page leaves XτSX_{\tau_S}XτS​​ undefined there.
  7. Lemma 2.3 is stated in corrected form for simultaneous and boundary interventions.

The payoff is a Bochner expectation only inside Φx\Phi_xΦx​, which requires the L1L^1L1 conditions of (2.7) and the integrability of each payoff. A non-integrable deviation therefore never receives the junk payoff 000, and the Nash inequality cannot hold vacuously.

Contributions are welcome on the stochastic-calculus layer this needs (Itô's formula, strong existence and uniqueness for Lipschitz SDEs, optional stopping for stochastic integrals) and on the mollification lemma for functions that are C1C^1C1 with piecewise bounded second derivatives across a Lipschitz surface. These are reusable well beyond this mission.

Selected references

  • R. Aïd, M. Basei, G. Callegaro, L. Campi, T. Vargiolu, Nonzero-sum stochastic differential games with impulse controls: a verification theorem with applications, Math. Oper. Res. 45(1), 2020 (accepted manuscript, arXiv:1605.00039v4). https://arxiv.org/abs/1605.00039
  • A. Cosso, Stochastic differential games involving impulse controls and double-obstacle quasi-variational inequalities, SIAM J. Control Optim. 51(3), 2102–2131, 2013.
  • B. Øksendal, Stochastic Differential Equations, 6th ed., Springer, 2003. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-14394-6
  • B. Øksendal, A. Sulem, Applied Stochastic Control of Jump Diffusions, 2nd ed., Springer, 2007. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-69826-5
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Fundamentals of Queueing Theory VII: The Geometric Arrival-Point Law of the G/M/1 QueueTextbook

Motivation

Most queueing models with a closed-form answer assume Poisson arrivals. In practice the times between arrivals are often far from exponential: scheduled appointments, batch releases from an upstream process, or arrivals timed by a machine cycle. The G/M/1 queue keeps the service side exponential and makes no assumption about the arrival stream beyond independent, identically distributed interarrival times. It is the standard counterpart of the M/G/1 queue, and its solution is the one used in teaching and in practice whenever the input is not Poisson (Gross, Shortle, Thompson & Harris, Fundamentals of Queueing Theory, 4th ed., Wiley 2008, §5.3.1, DOI 10.1002/9781118625651).

The answer has an unusually clean form. The number of customers that an arriving customer finds in the system is geometric, exactly as in the M/M/1 queue, with the traffic intensity ρ\rhoρ replaced by a number r0r_0r0​ that depends on the whole interarrival distribution through a single scalar equation. This mission is the seventh of a series formalizing the book chapter by chapter; it covers the G/M/1 half of §5.3 (printed pp.259–263).

Setting

Customers arrive at a single server. The interarrival times are independent with common law AAA, a probability distribution on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞) with CDF A(t)A(t)A(t) and finite mean E[T]=1/λE[T] = 1/\lambdaE[T]=1/λ, λ>0\lambda > 0λ>0. Service times are independent exponential random variables with rate μ>0\mu > 0μ>0, and the discipline is first come, first served.

Let XnX_nXn​ be the number of customers in the system just before the nnnth arrival. Between two arrivals the server completes a Poisson number of services (truncated by the number present), so {Xn}\{X_n\}{Xn​} is a Markov chain on {0,1,2,… }\{0,1,2,\dots\}{0,1,2,…}. Its transition probabilities are built from

bk=∫0∞e−μt(μt)kk! dA(t)(k≥0),b_k = \int_0^\infty \frac{e^{-\mu t}(\mu t)^k}{k!}\,dA(t) \qquad (k \ge 0),bk​=∫0∞​k!e−μt(μt)k​dA(t)(k≥0),

the probability of exactly kkk completions during one interarrival time (Eq. (5.50)): pi0=1−∑k=0ibkp_{i0} = 1 - \sum_{k=0}^{i} b_kpi0​=1−∑k=0i​bk​, pij=bi+1−jp_{ij} = b_{i+1-j}pij​=bi+1−j​ for 1≤j≤i+11 \le j \le i+11≤j≤i+1, and pij=0p_{ij} = 0pij​=0 otherwise (Eq. (5.51)). A stationary arrival-point distribution is a probability vector q={qn}q = \{q_n\}q={qn​} with qP=qqP = qqP=q and qe=1qe = 1qe=1 (Eq. (5.52)); qnq_nqn​ is the long-run probability that an arrival finds nnn customers present.

The characteristic equation of the chain is

z=β(z),β(z)=∑n≥0bnzn,z = \beta(z), \qquad \beta(z) = \sum_{n \ge 0} b_n z^n ,z=β(z),β(z)=n≥0∑​bn​zn,

where β\betaβ is the probability generating function of {bn}\{b_n\}{bn​} (Eq. (5.55)). Equivalently z=A∗[μ(1−z)]z = A^*[\mu(1-z)]z=A∗[μ(1−z)] (Eq. (5.56)), where A∗(s)=∫0∞e−sx dA(x)A^*(s) = \int_0^\infty e^{-sx}\,dA(x)A∗(s)=∫0∞​e−sxdA(x) is the Laplace–Stieltjes transform of the interarrival law. The traffic intensity is ρ=λ/μ\rho = \lambda/\muρ=λ/μ.

Formalization targets

Goal: Eq. (5.60), the geometric arrival-point law

If ρ=λ/μ<1\rho = \lambda/\mu < 1ρ=λ/μ<1, there is a number r0r_0r0​ with 0<r0<10 < r_0 < 10<r0​<1 and r0=β(r0)r_0 = \beta(r_0)r0​=β(r0​), it is the only complex root of z=β(z)z = \beta(z)z=β(z) in the open unit disk, and

qn=(1−r0) r0 n(n≥0)q_n = (1 - r_0)\, r_0^{\,n} \qquad (n \ge 0)qn​=(1−r0​)r0n​(n≥0)

is a stationary arrival-point distribution and the only one. The root is part of the conclusion, not an assumption.

Milestones

  1. Eqs. (5.51)–(5.53): for a probability vector qqq, qP=qqP = qqP=q is equivalent to qi=∑k≥0qi+k−1bkq_i = \sum_{k\ge0} q_{i+k-1}b_kqi​=∑k≥0​qi+k−1​bk​ (i≥1i \ge 1i≥1) and q0=∑j≥0qj(1−∑k=0jbk)q_0 = \sum_{j\ge0} q_j\bigl(1 - \sum_{k=0}^{j} b_k\bigr)q0​=∑j≥0​qj​(1−∑k=0j​bk​).
  2. p.261: 0<b0<10 < b_0 < 10<b0​<1, bn>0b_n > 0bn​>0 for all nnn, β(1)=1\beta(1) = 1β(1)=1, and β′(1)=∑nnbn=μ/λ\beta'(1) = \sum_n n b_n = \mu/\lambdaβ′(1)=∑n​nbn​=μ/λ.
  3. Eq. (5.56): β(z)=A∗[μ(1−z)]\beta(z) = A^*[\mu(1-z)]β(z)=A∗[μ(1−z)] for ∣z∣≤1|z| \le 1∣z∣≤1.
  4. Eq. (5.58), Figure 5.2: z=β(z)z = \beta(z)z=β(z) has at most one root in (0,1)(0,1)(0,1), and one exists if and only if λ/μ<1\lambda/\mu < 1λ/μ<1.
  5. p.262: when λ/μ<1\lambda/\mu < 1λ/μ<1, z=β(z)z = \beta(z)z=β(z) has exactly one root with ∣z∣<1|z| < 1∣z∣<1.
  6. Eq. (5.59): successive substitution z(k+1)=β(z(k))z^{(k+1)} = \beta(z^{(k)})z(k+1)=β(z(k)) from any 0<z(0)<10 < z^{(0)} < 10<z(0)<1 converges to r0r_0r0​.
  7. Eq. (5.61): L(A)=r0/(1−r0)L^{(A)} = r_0/(1-r_0)L(A)=r0​/(1−r0​) and Lq(A)=r02/(1−r0)L_q^{(A)} = r_0^2/(1-r_0)Lq(A)​=r02​/(1−r0​).
  8. Eq. (5.62): Wq(t)=1−r0e−μ(1−r0)tW_q(t) = 1 - r_0 e^{-\mu(1-r_0)t}Wq​(t)=1−r0​e−μ(1−r0​)t and W(t)=1−e−μ(1−r0)tW(t) = 1 - e^{-\mu(1-r_0)t}W(t)=1−e−μ(1−r0​)t for t≥0t \ge 0t≥0.
  9. Eq. (5.63): Wq=r0/(μ(1−r0))W_q = r_0/(\mu(1-r_0))Wq​=r0​/(μ(1−r0​)) and W=1/(μ(1−r0))W = 1/(\mu(1-r_0))W=1/(μ(1−r0​)).

Significance

The result. Equation (5.60) reduces the analysis of a queue with arbitrary renewal input to one scalar root. Every arrival-point performance measure of the M/M/1 queue then carries over with ρ\rhoρ replaced by r0r_0r0​: the mean number found by an arrival, the mean queue found by an arrival, and the full distributions of line delay and system time seen by arrivals (Eqs. (5.61)–(5.63)). The same root drives the multiserver G/M/c analysis later in §5.3 and the relation between arrival-point and time-average probabilities in §6.3. The result also illustrates a point the book stresses: qnq_nqn​ is the distribution seen by arrivals, and it equals the time-average distribution pnp_npn​ only when the input is Poisson.

Formalizing it. The mathematics is classical (the embedded-chain method goes back to Kendall, 1953) and fully proved in the textbook literature; nothing here is open. To our knowledge none of it has a machine-checked proof: the platform had no G/M/1, embedded-chain, or Rouché-type statement when this mission was drafted. The work is to formalize the known argument, which touches analytic facts about power series with nonnegative coefficients, a mixture-of-Poisson computation, a counting of roots in the unit disk, and the uniqueness of the stationary law of an irreducible countable chain.

Difficulty

Locating a real root in (0,1)(0,1)(0,1) is a one-variable question. The hard step is excluding every other complex root inside the unit disk: a real-variable argument says nothing about complex roots, and the book's route relies on Rouché's theorem, which Mathlib does not have. A second point is uniqueness of the stationary vector: showing that the geometric vector solves qP=qqP = qqP=q does not show that no other probability vector does, and the goal asserts both. Computing ∑nnbn=μ/λ\sum_n n b_n = \mu/\lambda∑n​nbn​=μ/λ requires interchanging a sum with the integral against AAA, which is where the finite mean of the interarrival law enters.

Formalization scope

The interarrival law is a measure A : Measure ℝ with IsProbabilityMeasure A, A (Set.Iio 0) = 0, integrable identity, and ∫ x ∂A = 1/λ (the structure IsInterarrivalLaw). Every theorem also assumes λ>0\lambda > 0λ>0 and μ>0\mu > 0μ>0. The integrals defining bkb_kbk​ and A∗A^*A∗ are over [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞), closed at 000. The generating function β\betaβ takes complex arguments; real roots are written with the real-to-complex coercion. A stationary vector is a function q : ℕ → ℝ with qn≥0q_n \ge 0qn​≥0, HasSum q 1, and HasSum (fun i => q i * p i j) (q j) for every jjj.

The explicit closed forms the statements carry are: the transition matrix (5.51); the equations (5.53); β(z)=A∗[μ(1−z)]\beta(z) = A^*[\mu(1-z)]β(z)=A∗[μ(1−z)] (5.56); β′(1)=μ/λ\beta'(1) = \mu/\lambdaβ′(1)=μ/λ; qn=(1−r0)r0nq_n = (1-r_0)r_0^nqn​=(1−r0​)r0n​ (5.60); r0/(1−r0)r_0/(1-r_0)r0​/(1−r0​) and r02/(1−r0)r_0^2/(1-r_0)r02​/(1−r0​) (5.61); 1−r0e−μ(1−r0)t1 - r_0e^{-\mu(1-r_0)t}1−r0​e−μ(1−r0​)t and 1−e−μ(1−r0)t1 - e^{-\mu(1-r_0)t}1−e−μ(1−r0​)t (5.62); r0/(μ(1−r0))r_0/(\mu(1-r_0))r0​/(μ(1−r0​)) and 1/(μ(1−r0))1/(\mu(1-r_0))1/(μ(1−r0​)) (5.63). The waiting-time CDFs are defined as in §2.2.5 of the book: Wq(t)=q0+∑n≥1qnPr⁡{n completions in≤t}W_q(t) = q_0 + \sum_{n\ge1} q_n \Pr\{n \text{ completions in} \le t\}Wq​(t)=q0​+∑n≥1​qn​Pr{n completions in≤t} with the Erlang type-nnn CDF, and W(t)W(t)W(t) likewise with n+1n+1n+1 completions. The means in (5.63) are ∫0∞[1−Wq(t)] dt\int_0^\infty [1 - W_q(t)]\,dt∫0∞​[1−Wq​(t)]dt and ∫0∞[1−W(t)] dt\int_0^\infty [1 - W(t)]\,dt∫0∞​[1−W(t)]dt.

A trivializing formalization would take "r0∈(0,1)r_0 \in (0,1)r0​∈(0,1) solves z=β(z)z = \beta(z)z=β(z)" as a hypothesis of the goal, which turns (5.60) into a geometric-series check; here existence, location and uniqueness of the root, and uniqueness of the stationary vector, are all conclusions.

Out of scope for this mission: the M/G/c and M/G/∞ results of §5.2 and the multiserver G/M/c analysis of §5.3.2. Reusable pieces include a Rouché-type or fixed-point counting lemma for power series with nonnegative coefficients summing to one, and the uniqueness of stationary laws for irreducible chains on N\mathbb NN. Contributions of either kind are welcome.

Selected references

  • D. Gross, J. F. Shortle, J. M. Thompson, C. M. Harris, Fundamentals of Queueing Theory, 4th ed., Wiley, 2008, §5.3.1, pp.259–263. https://doi.org/10.1002/9781118625651
  • D. G. Kendall, "Stochastic processes occurring in the theory of queues and their analysis by the method of the imbedded Markov chain", Annals of Mathematical Statistics 24(3), 1953, 338–354. https://doi.org/10.1214/aoms/1177728975
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Fundamentals of Queueing Theory VI: The Pollaczek–Khintchine Transform for the M/G/1 QueueTextbook

Motivation

The M/G/1 queue is the single-server queue with Poisson arrivals and an arbitrary service-time distribution. It is the first queueing model beyond the birth–death family in which exact formulas survive. It is also the model a practitioner reaches for when service times are measured and visibly not exponential: repair times, transmission times of variable-length packets, machining times. Its central result is the Pollaczek–Khintchine formula, first obtained by Pollaczek (1930) and Khintchine (1932). It expresses the stationary queue in terms of the service distribution, and it shows that the mean wait grows linearly in the squared coefficient of variation of service. That makes variability, and not only load, a measurable driver of congestion.

The textbook treatment followed here is Gross, Shortle, Thompson and Harris, Fundamentals of Queueing Theory, 4th ed. (Wiley 2008), §5.1. It derives the result through Kendall's (1953) imbedded Markov chain of system sizes at departure epochs. It then obtains the transforms of the waiting times and the busy-period functional equation of Takács (1962).

Setting

Customers arrive in a Poisson stream of rate λ>0\lambda > 0λ>0. Service times SSS are independent with distribution BBB, a probability distribution on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞) with mean E[S]\mathrm E[S]E[S], and the discipline is first-come first-served. The traffic intensity is ρ=λ E[S]\rho = \lambda\,\mathrm E[S]ρ=λE[S].

Let XnX_nXn​ be the number of customers the nnnth departing customer leaves behind. The number of arrivals during one service time equals iii with probability

ki=∫0∞e−λt(λt)ii! dB(t),k_i = \int_0^\infty \frac{e^{-\lambda t}(\lambda t)^i}{i!}\,dB(t),ki​=∫0∞​i!e−λt(λt)i​dB(t),

and (Xn)(X_n)(Xn​) is a Markov chain on {0,1,2,… }\{0,1,2,\dots\}{0,1,2,…} whose transition matrix PPP has first row (k0,k1,k2,… )(k_0,k_1,k_2,\dots)(k0​,k1​,k2​,…) and, for i≥1i \ge 1i≥1, entries pij=kj−i+1p_{ij} = k_{j-i+1}pij​=kj−i+1​ for j≥i−1j \ge i-1j≥i−1 and 000 otherwise. A stationary distribution is a probability vector π\piπ with πP=π\pi P = \piπP=π. Its generating function is Π(z)=∑iπizi\Pi(z) = \sum_i \pi_i z^iΠ(z)=∑i​πi​zi, and that of the arrivals per service is K(z)=∑ikiziK(z) = \sum_i k_i z^iK(z)=∑i​ki​zi, for complex ∣z∣≤1|z| \le 1∣z∣≤1. The Laplace–Stieltjes transform of a distribution FFF on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞) is F∗(s)=∫0∞e−st dF(t)F^*(s) = \int_0^\infty e^{-st}\,dF(t)F∗(s)=∫0∞​e−stdF(t). In the Lean development these are arrivalProb, transitionMatrix, IsStationaryDist, pgf, utilization and lst in the namespace QueueingFundamentals.MG1.

Formalization targets

Goal: the Pollaczek–Khintchine transform formula (5.15)–(5.16)

If E[S]<∞\mathrm E[S] < \inftyE[S]<∞ and ρ<1\rho < 1ρ<1, the chain has a stationary distribution, and every stationary distribution satisfies π0=1−ρ\pi_0 = 1-\rhoπ0​=1−ρ and

Π(z)=(1−ρ)(1−z)K(z)K(z)−z,∣z∣≤1, z≠1,\Pi(z) = \frac{(1-\rho)(1-z)K(z)}{K(z)-z}, \qquad |z| \le 1,\ z \ne 1,Π(z)=K(z)−z(1−ρ)(1−z)K(z)​,∣z∣≤1, z=1,

with K(z)≠zK(z) \ne zK(z)=z at each such zzz. It leaves the service distribution completely general.

Milestones

  1. The stationary equations (5.12): πi=π0ki+∑j=1i+1πjki−j+1\pi_i = \pi_0 k_i + \sum_{j=1}^{i+1}\pi_j k_{i-j+1}πi​=π0​ki​+∑j=1i+1​πj​ki−j+1​.
  2. The transform (5.14), Π(z)=π0(1−z)K(z)/(K(z)−z)\Pi(z) = \pi_0(1-z)K(z)/(K(z)-z)Π(z)=π0​(1−z)K(z)/(K(z)−z), with π0\pi_0π0​ free and no condition on ρ\rhoρ.
  3. Ergodicity (§5.1.4): a unique stationary distribution exists if and only if ρ<1\rho < 1ρ<1.
  4. The departure-point mean (5.7): L(D)=ρ+(ρ2+λ2σB2)/(2(1−ρ))L^{(D)} = \rho + (\rho^2+\lambda^2\sigma_B^2)/(2(1-\rho))L(D)=ρ+(ρ2+λ2σB2​)/(2(1−ρ)).
  5. K(z)=B∗[λ(1−z)]K(z) = B^*[\lambda(1-z)]K(z)=B∗[λ(1−z)] (5.32).
  6. The system-wait transform (5.29), (5.33): Π(z)=W∗[λ(1−z)]\Pi(z) = W^*[\lambda(1-z)]Π(z)=W∗[λ(1−z)] and W∗(s)=(1−ρ)sB∗(s)/(s−λ[1−B∗(s)])W^*(s) = (1-\rho)sB^*(s)/(s-\lambda[1-B^*(s)])W∗(s)=(1−ρ)sB∗(s)/(s−λ[1−B∗(s)]).
  7. The line-wait transform (5.34): Wq∗(s)=(1−ρ)s/(s−λ[1−B∗(s)])W_q^*(s) = (1-\rho)s/(s-\lambda[1-B^*(s)])Wq∗​(s)=(1−ρ)s/(s−λ[1−B∗(s)]).
  8. The busy-period equation (5.37): G∗(s)=B∗[s+λ−λG∗(s)]G^*(s) = B^*[s+\lambda-\lambda G^*(s)]G∗(s)=B∗[s+λ−λG∗(s)].
  9. The mean busy period: E[X]=1/(μ−λ)\mathrm E[X] = 1/(\mu-\lambda)E[X]=1/(μ−λ) with μ=1/E[S]\mu = 1/\mathrm E[S]μ=1/E[S].

Significance

The transform formula determines the whole stationary departure-point distribution from the service distribution. Its derivatives at z=1z = 1z=1 give every moment of the system size, including the mean-value formula (5.7). Combined with the transform identity (5.32), it gives the waiting-time transforms (5.33)–(5.34). Those in turn give the classical geometric-series representation of the line-wait distribution through the residual service time. The busy-period equation is the starting point for busy-period moments and for the M/G/1 analysis of priority and vacation models later in the book.

All results here are classical and proved in the literature. As far as a search of the platform shows (2026-09-28), none is machine-checked: there is no M/G/1 queue, imbedded departure-point chain, Laplace–Stieltjes transform of a service distribution, or busy-period equation on Prove2Me. Mathlib has Poisson distributions and measure convolution but no generating-function theory for countable Markov chains, no Laplace–Stieltjes transform, and no identity theorem in the form these statements need. The mission produces a checked statement of the Pollaczek–Khintchine formulas that later queueing developments (vacations, priorities, M/G/1-type chains) can build on.

Difficulty

Turning the stationary equations into (5.14) is formal power-series algebra. The difficulties lie elsewhere. First, the formula must hold for complex zzz on the closed disk, which needs the non-vanishing of K(z)−zK(z)-zK(z)−z away from z=1z = 1z=1. That fact fails for ρ>1\rho > 1ρ>1, where KKK has a fixed point inside the disk. Second, (5.15) evaluates π0\pi_0π0​ from Π(1)=1\Pi(1) = 1Π(1)=1 by a limit at the point where the formula is 0/00/00/0, and this uses K′(1)=ρK'(1) = \rhoK′(1)=ρ, an interchange of sum and integral. Third, the existence half of the goal requires positive recurrence of a chain with unbounded jumps. The book obtains it from Foster's criterion, which is not in Mathlib. Fourth, the waiting-time and busy-period transforms are stated for all real s>0s > 0s>0, while the generating-function route reaches only s=λ(1−z)∈(0,2λ]s = \lambda(1-z) \in (0, 2\lambda]s=λ(1−z)∈(0,2λ]. Extending the identity requires either analyticity arguments or a direct derivation. A formal proof of (5.14) alone does not touch any of these.

Formalization scope

The service distribution is a Measure ℝ with IsProbabilityMeasure B and B (Set.Iio 0) = 0; no density is assumed. The arrival rate is lam : ℝ with 0 < lam. Stationarity is IsStationaryDist P π: nonnegative entries, HasSum π 1, and HasSum (fun i => π i * P i j) (π j) for every j. That is global balance on ℕ, as the book writes it. Generating functions take a complex argument with ‖z‖ ≤ 1; transforms take a complex argument, and the waiting-time and busy-period statements use real s. The mean and variance of B are Bochner integrals, and every statement that uses them assumes Integrable. The mean busy period assumes 0 < E[S], so that μ=1/E[S]\mu = 1/\mathrm E[S]μ=1/E[S] is the book's service rate.

Closed forms carried by the statements: π0=1−ρ\pi_0 = 1-\rhoπ0​=1−ρ (5.15); (1−ρ)(1−z)K(z)/(K(z)−z)(1-\rho)(1-z)K(z)/(K(z)-z)(1−ρ)(1−z)K(z)/(K(z)−z) (5.16); π0(1−z)K(z)/(K(z)−z)\pi_0(1-z)K(z)/(K(z)-z)π0​(1−z)K(z)/(K(z)−z) (5.14); ρ+(ρ2+λ2σB2)/(2(1−ρ))\rho + (\rho^2+\lambda^2\sigma_B^2)/(2(1-\rho))ρ+(ρ2+λ2σB2​)/(2(1−ρ)) (5.7); B∗[λ(1−z)]B^*[\lambda(1-z)]B∗[λ(1−z)] (5.32); (1−ρ)sB∗(s)/(s−λ[1−B∗(s)])(1-\rho)sB^*(s)/(s-\lambda[1-B^*(s)])(1−ρ)sB∗(s)/(s−λ[1−B∗(s)]) (5.33); (1−ρ)s/(s−λ[1−B∗(s)])(1-\rho)s/(s-\lambda[1-B^*(s)])(1−ρ)s/(s−λ[1−B∗(s)]) (5.34); B∗[s+λ−λG∗(s)]B^*[s+\lambda-\lambda G^*(s)]B∗[s+λ−λG∗(s)] (5.37); 1/(μ−λ)1/(\mu-\lambda)1/(μ−λ) for the mean busy period.

The waiting-time distribution WWW enters through the book's FCFS relation πn=1n!∫(λt)ne−λt dW(t)\pi_n = \frac1{n!}\int(\lambda t)^n e^{-\lambda t}\,dW(t)πn​=n!1​∫(λt)ne−λtdW(t), and WqW_qWq​ through W=Wq∗BW = W_q * BW=Wq​∗B; both are hypotheses, as in the book. The busy-period distribution GGG enters through the equation (5.36) in CDF form, with nnn-fold convolutions built from Mathlib's Measure.conv.

The goal is not the algebraic consequence of (5.12) for an arbitrary sequence: π\piπ must be a probability vector, π0\pi_0π0​ is determined as 1−ρ1-\rho1−ρ, and the existence of a stationary distribution is part of the conclusion, so the statement cannot hold vacuously. The departure-point/time-average equality (§5.1.3, via PASTA) is not formalized.

Useful infrastructure, reusable beyond this mission: generating functions of stationary distributions on ℕ, Poisson mixtures, Laplace–Stieltjes transforms of measures on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞), and a Foster-type drift criterion for countable chains. Contributions proving any milestone, or those tools, are welcome.

Selected references

  • D. Gross, J. F. Shortle, J. M. Thompson, C. M. Harris, Fundamentals of Queueing Theory, 4th ed., Wiley, 2008, §5.1. https://doi.org/10.1002/9781118625651
  • D. G. Kendall, Stochastic processes occurring in the theory of queues and their analysis by the method of the imbedded Markov chain, Annals of Mathematical Statistics 24 (1953) 338–354. https://doi.org/10.1214/aoms/1177728975
  • F. G. Foster, On the stochastic matrices associated with certain queuing processes, Annals of Mathematical Statistics 24 (1953) 355–360. https://doi.org/10.1214/aoms/1177728976
  • L. Takács, Introduction to the Theory of Queues, Oxford University Press, 1962.
  • F. Pollaczek, Über eine Aufgabe der Wahrscheinlichkeitstheorie, Mathematische Zeitschrift 32 (1930) 64–100. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01194620
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Markov ChainOperations ResearchProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

Fundamentals of Queueing Theory V: Closed Jackson Networks and the Mean-Value RecursionTextbook

Motivation

Networks of queues model systems in which a job visits several service stations in turn: jobs in a computer system alternating between CPU and disks, machines cycling between operation and repair, parts routed through a job shop. In a closed network no job enters or leaves; a fixed population of NNN customers circulates among kkk nodes. Closed networks are the standard model of multiprogrammed computer systems and of machine-repair and finite-source systems, and they are the setting of chapter 4 of Gross, Shortle, Thompson and Harris, Fundamentals of Queueing Theory (4th ed., Wiley 2008, doi:10.1002/9781118625651).

The chapter's results form a short line of computational ideas:

  • Jackson (1957, 1963) showed that open networks of exponential servers with Markovian routing have a product-form steady state; Gordon and Newell (1967) gave the closed-network version, (4.15)–(4.18) of the book.
  • Buzen (1973) gave a convolution recursion for the normalizing constant G(N)G(N)G(N) and for marginal distributions, (4.19)–(4.22).
  • Reiser and Lavenberg (1980) introduced mean-value analysis (MVA), which computes mean queue lengths, waiting times and throughputs population by population without ever forming G(N)G(N)G(N), (4.23)–(4.25); the book presents it following Bruell and Balbo (1980).
  • The book closes the section with a recursion for the full marginal distributions, (4.26), which it proves from the product form (pp.207–209).

This mission formalizes that line, ending at (4.26).

Setting

A closed Jackson network has nodes i=1,…,ki = 1, \dots, ki=1,…,k, each with a single server whose service times are exponential with rate μi>0\mu_i > 0μi​>0. A customer finishing service at node iii moves to node jjj with probability rijr_{ij}rij​; the routing matrix R=(rij)R = (r_{ij})R=(rij​) has nonnegative entries and rows summing to one, and it is irreducible: every node can be reached from every other. The state is nˉ=(n1,…,nk)\bar n = (n_1, \dots, n_k)nˉ=(n1​,…,nk​), the number of customers at each node, with n1+⋯+nk=Nn_1 + \cdots + n_k = Nn1​+⋯+nk​=N; this state space is finite.

The steady-state distribution pnˉp_{\bar n}pnˉ​ is the probability vector on the state space that solves the flow-balance equations (4.14),

∑j=1k∑i=1i≠jkμirij pnˉ;i+j−=∑i=1kμi(1−rii) pnˉ,\sum_{j=1}^{k}\sum_{\substack{i=1\\ i\ne j}}^{k} \mu_i r_{ij}\, p_{\bar n;i^+j^-} = \sum_{i=1}^{k}\mu_i(1-r_{ii})\,p_{\bar n},j=1∑k​i=1i=j​∑k​μi​rij​pnˉ;i+j−​=i=1∑k​μi​(1−rii​)pnˉ​,

where nˉ;i+j−\bar n;i^+j^-nˉ;i+j− has one more customer at iii and one fewer at jjj, and terms with a negative subscript or with μi\mu_iμi​ at an empty node vanish. The traffic equations (4.16) are μiρi=∑jμjrjiρj\mu_i\rho_i = \sum_j \mu_j r_{ji}\rho_jμi​ρi​=∑j​μj​rji​ρj​; they determine ρ=(ρ1,…,ρk)\rho = (\rho_1, \dots, \rho_k)ρ=(ρ1​,…,ρk​) up to a positive factor. The normalizing constant is

G(N)=∑n1+⋯+nk=Nρ1n1⋯ρknk,G(N) = \sum_{n_1+\cdots+n_k=N}\rho_1^{n_1}\cdots\rho_k^{n_k},G(N)=n1​+⋯+nk​=N∑​ρ1n1​​⋯ρknk​​,

and more generally, with fi(n)=ρi n/ai(n)f_i(n) = \rho_i^{\,n}/a_i(n)fi​(n)=ρin​/ai​(n) for cic_ici​-server nodes ((4.13)), G(N)=∑∏ifi(ni)G(N) = \sum \prod_i f_i(n_i)G(N)=∑∏i​fi​(ni​) and Buzen's function gm(n)=∑n1+⋯+nm=n∏i≤mfi(ni)g_m(n) = \sum_{n_1+\cdots+n_m=n}\prod_{i\le m} f_i(n_i)gm​(n)=∑n1​+⋯+nm​=n​∏i≤m​fi​(ni​).

For each population NNN write pi(n,N)=Pr⁡{Ni=n}p_i(n, N) = \Pr\{N_i = n\}pi​(n,N)=Pr{Ni​=n} for the marginal distribution at node iii, Pˉi(n;N)=Pr⁡{Ni≥n}\bar P_i(n; N) = \Pr\{N_i \ge n\}Pˉi​(n;N)=Pr{Ni​≥n}, Li(N)L_i(N)Li​(N) for the mean number at node iii, and

λi(N)=Pr⁡{server busy at node i}⋅μi\lambda_i(N) = \Pr\{\text{server busy at node } i\}\cdot\mu_iλi​(N)=Pr{server busy at node i}⋅μi​

for the throughput of node iii.

Formalization targets

Goal: the marginal recursion (4.26)

For every node iii,

pi(0,0)=1,pi(n,N)=λi(N)μi pi(n−1,N−1)(n,N≥1).p_i(0,0) = 1, \qquad p_i(n, N) = \frac{\lambda_i(N)}{\mu_i}\,p_i(n-1, N-1) \quad (n, N \ge 1).pi​(0,0)=1,pi​(n,N)=μi​λi​(N)​pi​(n−1,N−1)(n,N≥1).

It involves only the steady-state distributions and quantities computed from them; it holds for every irreducible routing matrix and every choice of rates.

Milestones

  1. Product form (4.14)–(4.16). For any positive solution ρ\rhoρ of (4.16), a probability distribution solves (4.14) if and only if pnˉ=G(N)−1ρ1n1⋯ρknkp_{\bar n} = G(N)^{-1}\rho_1^{n_1}\cdots\rho_k^{n_k}pnˉ​=G(N)−1ρ1n1​​⋯ρknk​​.
  2. Buzen's algorithm (4.19)–(4.21). G(N)=gk(N)G(N) = g_k(N)G(N)=gk​(N), gm(n)=∑i=0nfm(i) gm−1(n−i)g_m(n) = \sum_{i=0}^{n} f_m(i)\,g_{m-1}(n-i)gm​(n)=∑i=0n​fm​(i)gm−1​(n−i), g1=f1g_1 = f_1g1​=f1​, gm(0)=1g_m(0) = 1gm​(0)=1.
  3. Marginal at the last node (4.22). pk(n)=fk(n) gk−1(N−n)/G(N)p_k(n) = f_k(n)\,g_{k-1}(N-n)/G(N)pk​(n)=fk​(n)gk−1​(N−n)/G(N) for 0≤n≤N0 \le n \le N0≤n≤N.
  4. Complementary marginal (p.208). Pˉi(ni;N)=ρi niG(N−ni)/G(N)\bar P_i(n_i; N) = \rho_i^{\,n_i}G(N-n_i)/G(N)Pˉi​(ni​;N)=ρini​​G(N−ni​)/G(N).
  5. Mean-value analysis (4.23)–(4.25). Li(0)=0L_i(0) = 0Li​(0)=0; Li(N)=λi(N)Wi(N)L_i(N) = \lambda_i(N)W_i(N)Li​(N)=λi​(N)Wi​(N) with Wi(N)=(1+Li(N−1))/μiW_i(N) = (1 + L_i(N-1))/\mu_iWi​(N)=(1+Li​(N−1))/μi​; and for vvv solving vi=∑jvjrjiv_i = \sum_j v_j r_{ji}vi​=∑j​vj​rji​ with vl=1v_l = 1vl​=1, λl(N)=N/∑iviWi(N)\lambda_l(N) = N/\sum_i v_iW_i(N)λl​(N)=N/∑i​vi​Wi​(N) and λi(N)=λl(N)vi\lambda_i(N) = \lambda_l(N)v_iλi​(N)=λl​(N)vi​.

Significance

The product form reduces a (N+k−1N)\binom{N+k-1}{N}(NN+k−1​)-state Markov chain to the constants G(0),…,G(N)G(0), \dots, G(N)G(0),…,G(N), and Buzen's recursion computes them in O(kN2)O(kN^2)O(kN2) operations. Mean-value analysis goes further and avoids G(N)G(N)G(N), whose magnitude can overflow or underflow for large populations; it is the method used in capacity planning of computer systems. The recursion (4.26) extends MVA from means to full marginal distributions, so a single pass over NNN yields every nodal distribution.

All of these results are classical and proved in the literature; the book proves (4.26) itself. What the mission adds is a machine-checked development of them from the global balance equations: the product form with its uniqueness, the convolution identities, the marginal formulas, and the correctness of the MVA iteration as stated by the book, all over one shared definition layer. A search of the platform on 2026-09-28 found no formal statement of Buzen's algorithm or of MVA. The platform has Kelly's closed migration process theorem (KellyStochasticNetworks.closed_migration_equilibrium), which shows that the unnormalized product form satisfies the equilibrium equations under Kelly's conventions; the normalization, uniqueness and everything downstream of the product form are new here.

Difficulty

The combinatorial identities (Buzen's recursion, the tail marginal) are reindexings of finite sums over compositions of NNN; in Lean the work is in bijections between the state spaces {n1+⋯+nk=N}\{n_1+\cdots+n_k = N\}{n1​+⋯+nk​=N} for different kkk and NNN. The substantive step is uniqueness in the product-form theorem: the global balance equations have a one-dimensional solution space only because the chain on the NNN-customer states is irreducible on the population level, which is a property of the network chain and not of the routing matrix alone. The goal and MVA also need a positive solution of the traffic equations, which is not among the hypotheses and has to come from irreducibility of RRR. The book's own intuitive derivation of MVA via the arrival theorem is not the route the statements require; they are stated in terms of the steady-state distributions alone.

Formalization scope

Nodes are Fin k (book node iii is index i−1i-1i−1); states are n : Fin k → ℕ with ∑ i, n i = N, collected in a Finset, and all sums are finite. A distribution is a real function on Nk\mathbb N^kNk that is nonnegative, vanishes off the NNN-customer states and sums to one there. The balance equations are (4.14) verbatim with the book's boundary convention (p.188), not detailed balance. All results except Buzen's algorithm and (4.22) are for single-server nodes, as in the book; (4.13)'s multiserver factor ai(n)a_i(n)ai​(n) enters only (4.19)–(4.22).

Closed forms instantiated in the statements: the product form G(N)−1∏iρiniG(N)^{-1}\prod_i\rho_i^{n_i}G(N)−1∏i​ρini​​ ((4.15)); G(N)G(N)G(N) as the explicit sum (4.18)/(4.19); ai(n)a_i(n)ai​(n) from (4.13); gmg_mgm​ from (4.20); pk(n)=fk(n)gk−1(N−n)/G(N)p_k(n) = f_k(n)g_{k-1}(N-n)/G(N)pk​(n)=fk​(n)gk−1​(N−n)/G(N) ((4.22)); Pˉi(n;N)=ρinG(N−n)/G(N)\bar P_i(n;N) = \rho_i^nG(N-n)/G(N)Pˉi​(n;N)=ρin​G(N−n)/G(N) (p.208); Wi(N)=(1+Li(N−1))/μiW_i(N) = (1+L_i(N-1))/\mu_iWi​(N)=(1+Li​(N−1))/μi​ ((4.23)); λl(N)=N/∑iviWi(N)\lambda_l(N) = N/\sum_i v_iW_i(N)λl​(N)=N/∑i​vi​Wi​(N) (MVA step (iii)(b)).

Two trivializing formalizations are ruled out: λi(N)\lambda_i(N)λi​(N) in (4.26) and (4.24) is the throughput computed from the steady-state distribution, not a free constant (which would make (4.26) a definition); and gmg_mgm​ is defined by the sum (4.20), so the recursion (4.21) is a theorem rather than rfl. The product-form statement is an equivalence, so it asserts both that the product form is a steady state and that it is the only one.

Needed infrastructure: bijections between compositions of NNN into kkk and k−1k-1k−1 parts, uniqueness of stationary distributions of irreducible finite continuous-time chains (stated directly via the balance equations), and existence of positive solutions of v=vRv = vRv=vR for irreducible stochastic RRR. The last two are reusable beyond this mission. Contributions welcome: proofs of the milestones in any order, and helper lemmas on these three points.

Not formalized: open Jackson networks (4.11) and Burke's theorem (4.5)–(4.6), multiclass networks (§4.2.1), the multiserver recursion (4.27) and cyclic queues (§4.4).

Selected references

  • D. Gross, J. F. Shortle, J. M. Thompson, C. M. Harris, Fundamentals of Queueing Theory, 4th ed., Wiley, 2008, §4.3, pp.195–209. https://doi.org/10.1002/9781118625651
  • J. R. Jackson, "Jobshop-like queueing systems", Management Science 10(1), 1963. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.10.1.131
  • W. J. Gordon, G. F. Newell, "Closed queuing systems with exponential servers", Operations Research 15(2), 1967. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.15.2.254
  • J. P. Buzen, "Computational algorithms for closed queueing networks with exponential servers", Communications of the ACM 16(9), 1973. https://doi.org/10.1145/362342.362345
  • M. Reiser, S. S. Lavenberg, "Mean-value analysis of closed multichain queuing networks", Journal of the ACM 27(2), 1980. https://doi.org/10.1145/322186.322195
  • S. C. Bruell, G. Balbo, Computational Algorithms for Closed Queueing Networks, North-Holland, 1980.
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Markov ChainOperations ResearchProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

Fundamentals of Queueing Theory IV: The Stationary Distribution of the M/M/1 Retrial QueueTextbook

Motivation

In many service systems a customer who finds every server busy does not join a queue. A caller who hears a busy signal hangs up and redials later; a request rejected by a saturated server is resent after a timeout; an aircraft that cannot land circles and tries again. These retrial queues are the subject of a substantial literature in telephone traffic engineering, computer networks and call-centre design, surveyed in the monograph of Falin and Templeton (1997) and the bibliography of Artalejo (1999). Their analysis is harder than that of ordinary queues: the blocked customers form an orbit whose size is part of the state, so even the simplest model is a two-dimensional Markov chain, and explicit stationary distributions are rare.

This mission is the fourth of a series formalizing Gross, Shortle, Thompson and Harris, Fundamentals of Queueing Theory (4th ed., Wiley 2008). Its goal is the explicit stationary distribution of the single-server retrial queue, Eq. (3.57) of §3.5.1, one of the few retrial models solvable in closed form. Chapter 3 of the book treats Markovian queues that are not birth–death processes: bulk arrivals, bulk service, Erlang phases, priority disciplines and retrials. The milestones also collect three capstone formulas from the chapter's other sections: the bulk-input queue, the partial-batch bulk-service queue, and Cobham's formula for nonpreemptive priorities (Cobham, 1954).

Setting

In the M/M/1M/M/1M/M/1 retrial queue customers arrive according to a Poisson process with rate λ\lambdaλ and are served one at a time by a single server, with exponential service times of mean 1/μ1/\mu1/μ. An arrival that finds the server busy enters the orbit and stays there for an exponential time with mean 1/γ1/\gamma1/γ, after which it tries again; each customer in orbit retries independently. No customer leaves because of impatience. With Ns(t)∈{0,1}N_s(t) \in \{0,1\}Ns​(t)∈{0,1} the number in service and No(t)N_o(t)No​(t) the number in orbit, the pair is a continuous-time Markov chain on states {i,n}\{i, n\}{i,n}, i∈{0,1}i \in \{0,1\}i∈{0,1}, n∈{0,1,2,… }n \in \{0,1,2,\dots\}n∈{0,1,2,…}. Writing pi,np_{i,n}pi,n​ for the steady-state probability of {i,n}\{i,n\}{i,n}, the rate-balance equations are

(λ+nγ)p0,n=μp1,n,n≥0,(3.47)(λ+μ)p1,n=λp0,n+(n+1)γp0,n+1+λp1,n−1,n≥1,(3.48)(λ+μ)p1,0=λp0,0+γp0,1.(3.49)\begin{aligned} (\lambda + n\gamma)p_{0,n} &= \mu p_{1,n}, && n \ge 0, && (3.47)\\ (\lambda+\mu)p_{1,n} &= \lambda p_{0,n} + (n+1)\gamma p_{0,n+1} + \lambda p_{1,n-1}, && n \ge 1, && (3.48)\\ (\lambda+\mu)p_{1,0} &= \lambda p_{0,0} + \gamma p_{0,1}. && && (3.49) \end{aligned}(λ+nγ)p0,n​(λ+μ)p1,n​(λ+μ)p1,0​​=μp1,n​,=λp0,n​+(n+1)γp0,n+1​+λp1,n−1​,=λp0,0​+γp0,1​.​​n≥0,n≥1,​​(3.47)(3.48)(3.49)​

Following the book's convention (§1.9, and the footnote on p.118), a steady-state solution is a nonnegative solution of these equations whose total mass ∑n(p0,n+p1,n)\sum_n (p_{0,n} + p_{1,n})∑n​(p0,n​+p1,n​) equals 111. The traffic intensity is ρ=λ/μ\rho = \lambda/\muρ=λ/μ, and the partial generating functions are P0(z)=∑nznp0,nP_0(z) = \sum_n z^n p_{0,n}P0​(z)=∑n​znp0,n​ and P1(z)=∑nznp1,nP_1(z) = \sum_n z^n p_{1,n}P1​(z)=∑n​znp1,n​.

The other models of the mission use the same convention. In the bulk-input queue M[X]/M/1M^{[X]}/M/1M[X]/M/1, batches arrive at rate λ\lambdaλ with batch-size probabilities cn=Pr⁡{X=n}c_n = \Pr\{X = n\}cn​=Pr{X=n}, n≥1n \ge 1n≥1, and batch-size generating function C(z)=∑ncnznC(z) = \sum_n c_n z^nC(z)=∑n​cn​zn. In the partial-batch bulk-service queue M/M[K]/1M/M^{[K]}/1M/M[K]/1, single arrivals come at rate λ\lambdaλ and the server serves up to KKK customers together in an exponential time of mean 1/μ1/\mu1/μ. In the nonpreemptive priority queue there are rrr classes with rates λk\lambda_kλk​ and μk\mu_kμk​, loads ρk=λk/μk\rho_k = \lambda_k/\mu_kρk​=λk​/μk​ and cumulative loads σk=ρ1+⋯+ρk\sigma_k = \rho_1 + \cdots + \rho_kσk​=ρ1​+⋯+ρk​.

Formalization targets

Goal: the stationary distribution (3.57)

For λ,μ,γ>0\lambda, \mu, \gamma > 0λ,μ,γ>0 and ρ<1\rho < 1ρ<1, the numbers

p0,n=(1−ρ)(λ/γ)+1ρnn! γn∏i=0n−1(λ+iγ),p1,n=(1−ρ)(λ/γ)+1ρn+1n! γn∏i=1n(λ+iγ)p_{0,n} = (1-\rho)^{(\lambda/\gamma)+1}\frac{\rho^n}{n!\,\gamma^n}\prod_{i=0}^{n-1}(\lambda+i\gamma), \qquad p_{1,n} = (1-\rho)^{(\lambda/\gamma)+1}\frac{\rho^{n+1}}{n!\,\gamma^n}\prod_{i=1}^{n}(\lambda+i\gamma)p0,n​=(1−ρ)(λ/γ)+1n!γnρn​i=0∏n−1​(λ+iγ),p1,n​=(1−ρ)(λ/γ)+1n!γnρn+1​i=1∏n​(λ+iγ)

form a steady-state solution of (3.47)–(3.49), and every steady-state solution equals them.

Milestones on the retrial queue

The generating functions satisfy (3.50)–(3.52) on (−1,1)(-1,1)(−1,1), including the separable equation

P0′(z)=λργ(1−ρz)P0(z),P_0'(z) = \frac{\lambda\rho}{\gamma(1-\rho z)}P_0(z),P0′​(z)=γ(1−ρz)λρ​P0​(z),

their closed form is (3.55),

P0(z)=(1−ρz)(1−ρ1−ρz)(λ/γ)+1,P1(z)=ρ(1−ρ1−ρz)(λ/γ)+1,P_0(z) = (1-\rho z)\left(\frac{1-\rho}{1-\rho z}\right)^{(\lambda/\gamma)+1}, \qquad P_1(z) = \rho\left(\frac{1-\rho}{1-\rho z}\right)^{(\lambda/\gamma)+1},P0​(z)=(1−ρz)(1−ρz1−ρ​)(λ/γ)+1,P1​(z)=ρ(1−ρz1−ρ​)(λ/γ)+1,

and the mean orbit size is (3.58), Lo=ρ21−ρ⋅μ+γγL_o = \frac{\rho^2}{1-\rho}\cdot\frac{\mu+\gamma}{\gamma}Lo​=1−ρρ2​⋅γμ+γ​.

Milestones from the rest of Chapter 3

The bulk-input generating function (3.3), p0=1−ρp_0 = 1 - \rhop0​=1−ρ with ρ=λE[X]/μ\rho = \lambda\mathrm E[X]/\muρ=λE[X]/μ, and the mean (3.4); the unique root r0∈(0,1)r_0 \in (0,1)r0​∈(0,1) of μrK+1−(λ+μ)r+λ=0\mu r^{K+1} - (\lambda+\mu)r + \lambda = 0μrK+1−(λ+μ)r+λ=0 and the geometric law pn=(1−r0)r0np_n = (1-r_0)r_0^npn​=(1−r0​)r0n​ (3.9); and Cobham's formula (3.41)/(3.43), the unique solution of the linear system (3.40).

Significance

The closed form (3.57) makes every performance measure of the M/M/1M/M/1M/M/1 retrial queue explicit. The server is busy a fraction ρ\rhoρ of the time, exactly as without retrials. The mean orbit size (3.58) is the M/M/1M/M/1M/M/1 mean queue length multiplied by (μ+γ)/γ(\mu+\gamma)/\gamma(μ+γ)/γ, and the mean time in orbit (3.59) follows from Little's law. These formulas quantify the cost of retrials against an ordinary queue and are the reference case against which approximations for multi-server retrial systems are checked.

The results are classical and proved in the book, partly through exercises (Problems 3.39–3.41). None of them is formalized in any proof assistant, as far as the platform's catalogue shows: there is no retrial, bulk or priority queue on Prove2Me. The mission produces machine-checked statements and, once solved, proofs of the chapter's main closed forms. It also produces a small reusable layer: generating functions of probability sequences on the closed unit disc, and the "probability solution of the balance equations" pattern for chains with countable state spaces.

Difficulty

The derivation in the book is formal. It differentiates power series term by term, divides by 1−z1 - z1−z, integrates ln⁡P0\ln P_0lnP0​, and fixes the constant by setting z=1z = 1z=1, without justifying any of these steps. A formal proof has to show that the series converge and are differentiable on (−1,1)(-1,1)(−1,1), that the differential equation determines P0P_0P0​ up to a constant, and that the values at z=1z = 1z=1 are the limits of the values inside the disc (Abel's theorem). The uniqueness half of the goal is the hardest part. The book never proves it; it follows from the ODE argument only once every step is shown to hold for an arbitrary probability solution. Verifying that (3.57) solves (3.47)–(3.49) is only the easy half. The same pattern recurs in the bulk-input queue, where z=1z = 1z=1 is a removable singularity of (3.3). In the bulk-service queue the root r0r_0r0​ is only characterized as the unique root in (0,1)(0,1)(0,1), so existence and uniqueness of the root are part of the claim.

Formalization scope

A steady-state solution is a pair p0 p1 : ℕ → ℝ (resp. one sequence p : ℕ → ℝ) that is pointwise nonnegative, has total mass 111 as a HasSum, and solves the book's balance equations exactly as printed, global balance and not detailed balance. Every "the steady-state solution is X" is stated with both halves: X is a steady-state solution, and every steady-state solution equals X. Stating only that (3.57) solves (3.47)–(3.49), without normalization or uniqueness, would be a trivializing formalization. So would taking r0r_0r0​ as a given root in (3.9), or taking the Wq(i)W_q^{(i)}Wq(i)​ in (3.41) as numbers assumed to satisfy it. None of these is used. The closed forms instantiated are (3.52), (3.55), (3.57), (3.58), (3.3), (3.4), (3.9), (3.41) and (3.43), each written out in full, with the real power (1−ρ)(λ/γ)+1(1-\rho)^{(\lambda/\gamma)+1}(1−ρ)(λ/γ)+1 as Real.rpow.

The conventions are as follows. The retrial generating functions take real arguments, on (−1,1)(-1,1)(−1,1) for the differential equations and on [−1,1][-1,1][−1,1] for the closed form. The bulk-input generating function takes complex arguments with ∣z∣≤1|z| \le 1∣z∣≤1, z≠1z \ne 1z=1, because (3.3) is 0/00/00/0 at z=1z = 1z=1. The condition ρ<1\rho < 1ρ<1 is a hypothesis of every retrial statement. For the bulk-service queue the book's unnamed condition is stated as λ<Kμ\lambda < K\muλ<Kμ. For bulk input, E[X]<∞\mathrm E[X] < \inftyE[X]<∞ is assumed throughout, and the mean (3.4) is asserted under the further condition E[X2]<∞\mathrm E[X^2] < \inftyE[X2]<∞, which it requires. For Cobham's formula only the algebraic content is formalized; the mean-value argument that yields (3.40) and (3.42) is not.

Needed infrastructure: power series of summable nonnegative sequences on the closed unit disc (convergence, term-by-term differentiation, Abel continuity), the binomial series (1−x)−a=∑na(a+1)⋯(a+n−1)n!xn(1 - x)^{-a} = \sum_n \frac{a(a+1)\cdots(a+n-1)}{n!}x^n(1−x)−a=∑n​n!a(a+1)⋯(a+n−1)​xn for real aaa, and uniqueness of invariant probability vectors for irreducible chains. All of this is reusable beyond the mission. Proofs of any milestone, of the easy half of the goal, or of the needed series facts are welcome contributions.

Selected references

  • D. Gross, J. F. Shortle, J. M. Thompson, C. M. Harris, Fundamentals of Queueing Theory, 4th ed., Wiley, 2008, §§3.1, 3.2.0.1, 3.4.2, 3.5.1. https://doi.org/10.1002/9781118625651
  • G. I. Falin, J. G. C. Templeton, Retrial Queues, Chapman & Hall, 1997. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4899-2977-8
  • J. R. Artalejo, Accessible bibliography on retrial queues, Mathematical and Computer Modelling 30 (1999) 1–6. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0895-7177(99)00128-4
  • A. Cobham, Priority assignment in waiting line problems, Journal of the Operations Research Society of America 2 (1954) 70–76. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.2.1.70
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Fundamentals of Queueing Theory III: The Transient M/M/1 Queue via Modified Bessel FunctionsTextbook

Motivation

Steady-state formulas describe a queue that has been running forever. Many practical questions are about a queue that has not: a call centre just after opening, a server just after a reset, a system under a burst of load. For these, the relevant quantity is the transient distribution pn(t)=Pr⁡{N(t)=n}p_n(t) = \Pr\{N(t) = n\}pn​(t)=Pr{N(t)=n} of the number N(t)N(t)N(t) in the system at a finite time ttt. It is also what determines how fast the steady state is approached, and it is needed for the busy period: the length of time a server stays busy once a customer arrives at an idle server.

For the single-server Markovian queue M/M/1 the transient distribution has an explicit closed form in modified Bessel functions. Its history is short and well documented. Ledermann and Reuter (1954) obtained it by spectral analysis of the birth–death process. Bailey (1954) found it by generating functions and Laplace transforms, and Champernowne (1956) by combinatorial methods. Bailey's route is the standard textbook derivation, and it is the one Gross, Shortle, Thompson and Harris outline in §2.11 of Fundamentals of Queueing Theory (4th ed., 2008). Abate and Whitt (1989) showed that computing with the resulting series is numerically delicate, which is one reason for having the formula pinned down exactly.

This mission formalizes §§2.11–2.12 of that book: the transient laws of M/M/1/1, M/M/1 and M/M/∞, and the M/M/1 busy period.

Setting

Customers arrive in a Poisson stream of rate λ>0\lambda > 0λ>0. Each service takes an exponential time of rate μ>0\mu > 0μ>0, and ρ=λ/μ\rho = \lambda/\muρ=λ/μ. The number in the system is a continuous-time Markov chain on {0,1,2,… }\{0, 1, 2, \dots\}{0,1,2,…}, and its state probabilities pn(t)p_n(t)pn​(t) satisfy the forward (differential–difference) equations. For M/M/1 started with N(0)=iN(0) = iN(0)=i they are, for t≥0t \ge 0t≥0,

pn′(t)=−(λ+μ)pn(t)+λpn−1(t)+μpn+1(t) (n>0),p0′(t)=−λp0(t)+μp1(t),(2.72)p_n'(t) = -(\lambda+\mu)p_n(t) + \lambda p_{n-1}(t) + \mu p_{n+1}(t)\ (n > 0), \qquad p_0'(t) = -\lambda p_0(t) + \mu p_1(t), \tag{2.72}pn′​(t)=−(λ+μ)pn​(t)+λpn−1​(t)+μpn+1​(t) (n>0),p0′​(t)=−λp0​(t)+μp1​(t),(2.72)

with pn(0)=1p_n(0) = 1pn​(0)=1 if n=in = in=i and 000 otherwise. The other systems are variants:

  • M/M/1/1, no waiting room: two states and equations (2.70).
  • M/M/∞, ample service: the death rate in state nnn is nμn\munμ, giving (2.76).
  • The busy-period system: (2.72) with 000 made absorbing (λ0=0\lambda_0 = 0λ0​=0) and N(0)=1N(0) = 1N(0)=1. Its p0(t)p_0(t)p0​(t) is the distribution function of the busy period TbpT_{bp}Tbp​.

A family (pn)(p_n)(pn​) solves a system on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞) when each pnp_npn​ has, at every t≥0t \ge 0t≥0, the prescribed derivative (a right derivative at t=0t = 0t=0). It is a probability solution when pn(t)≥0p_n(t) \ge 0pn​(t)≥0 and ∑npn(t)=1\sum_n p_n(t) = 1∑n​pn​(t)=1 for every t≥0t \ge 0t≥0. The modified Bessel function of the first kind is

In(y)=∑k=0∞(y/2)n+2kk! (n+k)!,I−n=In,I_n(y) = \sum_{k=0}^{\infty} \frac{(y/2)^{n+2k}}{k!\,(n+k)!}, \qquad I_{-n} = I_n,In​(y)=k=0∑∞​k!(n+k)!(y/2)n+2k​,I−n​=In​,

and the Laplace transform of fff is fˉ(s)=∫0∞e−stf(t) dt\bar f(s) = \int_0^\infty e^{-st} f(t)\,dtfˉ​(s)=∫0∞​e−stf(t)dt for Re⁡s>0\operatorname{Re} s > 0Res>0.

Formalization targets

Goal: the transient M/M/1 law, (2.75)

With y=2tλμy = 2t\sqrt{\lambda\mu}y=2tλμ​,

pn(t)=e−(λ+μ)t[ρ(n−i)/2In−i(y)+ρ(n−i−1)/2In+i+1(y)+(1−ρ)ρn∑j=n+i+2∞ρ−j/2Ij(y)].p_n(t) = e^{-(\lambda+\mu)t}\Big[\rho^{(n-i)/2} I_{n-i}(y) + \rho^{(n-i-1)/2} I_{n+i+1}(y) + (1-\rho)\rho^n \sum_{j=n+i+2}^{\infty} \rho^{-j/2} I_j(y)\Big].pn​(t)=e−(λ+μ)t[ρ(n−i)/2In−i​(y)+ρ(n−i−1)/2In+i+1​(y)+(1−ρ)ρnj=n+i+2∑∞​ρ−j/2Ij​(y)].

The goal asserts five things for every λ,μ>0\lambda, \mu > 0λ,μ>0 and every iii, with no restriction on ρ\rhoρ:

  1. the series converges;
  2. these functions solve (2.72);
  3. they meet the initial condition;
  4. they form a probability distribution at every ttt;
  5. they are the only probability solution.

Milestones

  1. (2.71): the M/M/1/1 solution p1(t)=λλ+μ(1−e−(λ+μ)t)+p1(0)e−(λ+μ)tp_1(t) = \frac{\lambda}{\lambda+\mu}(1-e^{-(\lambda+\mu)t}) + p_1(0)e^{-(\lambda+\mu)t}p1​(t)=λ+μλ​(1−e−(λ+μ)t)+p1​(0)e−(λ+μ)t, and the matching formula for p0p_0p0​.
  2. (2.74) and Rouché's theorem: for Re⁡s>0\operatorname{Re} s > 0Res>0, the quadratic (λ+μ+s)z−μ−λz2(\lambda+\mu+s)z - \mu - \lambda z^2(λ+μ+s)z−μ−λz2 has exactly one zero in ∣z∣<1|z| < 1∣z∣<1, namely z1=(λ+μ+s−(λ+μ+s)2−4λμ)/(2λ)z_1 = (\lambda+\mu+s-\sqrt{(\lambda+\mu+s)^2-4\lambda\mu})/(2\lambda)z1​=(λ+μ+s−(λ+μ+s)2−4λμ​)/(2λ).
  3. The transform of p0p_0p0​: pˉ0(s)=z1i+1/(μ(1−z1))\bar p_0(s) = z_1^{i+1}/(\mu(1-z_1))pˉ​0​(s)=z1i+1​/(μ(1−z1​)).
  4. The limit of (2.75): pn(t)→(1−ρ)ρnp_n(t) \to (1-\rho)\rho^npn​(t)→(1−ρ)ρn if ρ<1\rho < 1ρ<1, and pn(t)→0p_n(t) \to 0pn​(t)→0 if ρ≥1\rho \ge 1ρ≥1.
  5. (2.77), M/M/∞: started empty, pn(t)=a(t)ne−a(t)/n!p_n(t) = a(t)^n e^{-a(t)}/n!pn​(t)=a(t)ne−a(t)/n! with a(t)=(1−e−μt)λ/μa(t) = (1-e^{-\mu t})\lambda/\mua(t)=(1−e−μt)λ/μ. The statement says that this family solves (2.76), is the unique probability solution, and has generating function exp⁡((z−1)a(t))\exp((z-1)a(t))exp((z−1)a(t)).
  6. The busy-period transform: pˉ0(s)=2μ/(s[λ+μ+s+(λ+μ+s)2−4λμ])\bar p_0(s) = 2\mu/(s[\lambda+\mu+s+\sqrt{(\lambda+\mu+s)^2-4\lambda\mu}])pˉ​0​(s)=2μ/(s[λ+μ+s+(λ+μ+s)2−4λμ​]).
  7. The busy-period density: p0′(t)=μ/λ e−(λ+μ)tI1(2λμ t)/tp_0'(t) = \sqrt{\mu/\lambda}\,e^{-(\lambda+\mu)t} I_1(2\sqrt{\lambda\mu}\,t)/tp0′​(t)=μ/λ​e−(λ+μ)tI1​(2λμ​t)/t.
  8. (2.79): for λ<μ\lambda < \muλ<μ, E[Tbp]=1/(μ−λ)E[T_{bp}] = 1/(\mu-\lambda)E[Tbp​]=1/(μ−λ) and E[Tbc]=1/λ+1/(μ−λ)E[T_{bc}] = 1/\lambda + 1/(\mu-\lambda)E[Tbc​]=1/λ+1/(μ−λ).

Significance

The formula (2.75) is the exact finite-time law of the most basic queue. It gives the rate at which M/M/1 approaches equilibrium, and it gives the distribution of the queue under overload (ρ≥1\rho \ge 1ρ≥1), where no steady state exists. It is the reference against which numerical transient methods, such as the uniformization of Chapter 8 of the same book, are checked. The busy-period density and its mean (2.79) enter server-utilisation and vacation models, and the Laplace-transform method used here recurs in the M/G/1 analysis of Chapter 5.

All of these results are classical and proved in the literature. None of them is machine-checked, as far as the platform's catalogue and Mathlib show. The chain from a countable system of linear ODEs, through generating functions and a root-location argument, to a Bessel series is a standard pattern in applied probability, and a formal version of it is what this mission adds. The formal statements also make explicit what the book leaves implicit: the sense in which the equations hold at t=0t = 0t=0, and the class in which the solution is unique.

Difficulty

The forward equations (2.72) form an infinite linear system. The obvious approach is to treat it like a finite system of ODEs, whose solution is a matrix exponential, and read off (2.75). That fails for two reasons. The generator is an infinite matrix, so its exponential needs a functional-analytic setting. And uniqueness is not automatic for infinite systems: it needs a class, such as probability solutions, and an argument that works in that class.

The Bessel form is a second, independent difficulty. The transform pˉ0(s)\bar p_0(s)pˉ​0​(s) is fixed by a root-location argument in the complex plane. Inverting the transform, or verifying (2.75) directly, requires manipulating the three-term Bessel recurrence and exchanging infinite sums. The tail sum ∑jρ−j/2Ij\sum_{j} \rho^{-j/2} I_j∑j​ρ−j/2Ij​ has to be controlled uniformly enough to be differentiated term by term. For ρ≥1\rho \ge 1ρ≥1 the factor (1−ρ)(1-\rho)(1−ρ) is non-positive, so the nonnegativity of pn(t)p_n(t)pn​(t) is not visible from the formula.

Formalization scope

Conventions committed to:

  • Parameters. Rates are real with λ,μ>0\lambda, \mu > 0λ,μ>0, and ρ=λ/μ\rho = \lambda/\muρ=λ/μ. States are ℕ (Fin 2 for M/M/1/1).
  • Solutions. "Solves on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞)" is HasDerivWithinAt on Set.Ici 0 at every t≥0t \ge 0t≥0. Uniqueness is asserted among solutions that are probability distributions at every time.
  • Special functions. Half-integer powers of ρ\rhoρ are real powers, and I−m=ImI_{-m} = I_mI−m​=Im​ is part of the definition. Laplace transforms are complex Bochner integrals over (0,∞)(0,\infty)(0,∞), and each statement also asserts the integrability it needs. Square roots with positive real part are hypotheses r2=(λ+μ+s)2−4λμr^2 = (\lambda+\mu+s)^2 - 4\lambda\mur2=(λ+μ+s)2−4λμ, Re⁡r>0\operatorname{Re} r > 0Rer>0.

The closed forms stated exactly as in the book are:

  • (2.71);
  • z1z_1z1​ and z2z_2z2​ of (2.74);
  • pˉ0(s)=z1i+1/(μ(1−z1))\bar p_0(s) = z_1^{i+1}/(\mu(1-z_1))pˉ​0​(s)=z1i+1​/(μ(1−z1​));
  • (2.75), with the Bessel series of p.101;
  • the M/M/∞ law and (2.77);
  • the busy-period transform and density of p.102;
  • (2.79).

The book derives (2.79) by a steady-state ratio argument valid for M/G/1. Here it is stated for M/M/1, as the mean of the explicit density.

A statement of (2.75) that only asserts the right-hand side is well defined, or checks only n=0n = 0n=0, is ruled out: the goal requires the ODE system, the initial condition, the probability property and uniqueness. For the same reason, the M/M/∞ law is tied to the system (2.76) and does not reduce to a Taylor expansion.

Needed infrastructure that Mathlib lacks:

  • modified Bessel functions of integer order;
  • Laplace transforms;
  • a Rouché-type zero count or a direct root-location lemma;
  • uniqueness for countable linear ODE systems with bounded or linearly growing rates.

The Bessel and Laplace definitions, and the uniqueness lemma for birth–death forward equations, are reusable beyond this mission. Contributions of those as separate lemmas are welcome.

Selected references

  • D. Gross, J. F. Shortle, J. M. Thompson, C. M. Harris, Fundamentals of Queueing Theory, 4th ed., Wiley, 2008, §§2.11–2.12, pp.97–103. https://doi.org/10.1002/9781118625651
  • N. T. J. Bailey, "A continuous time treatment of a simple queue using generating functions", J. Royal Statistical Society B 16 (1954) 288–291. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2517-6161.1954.tb00172.x
  • W. Ledermann, G. E. H. Reuter, "Spectral theory for the differential equations of simple birth and death processes", Phil. Trans. Royal Society A 246 (1954) 321–369. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.1954.0001
  • D. G. Champernowne, "An elementary method of solution of the queueing problem with a single server and constant parameters", J. Royal Statistical Society B 18 (1956) 125–128. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2517-6161.1956.tb00217.x
  • J. Abate, W. Whitt, "Calculating time-dependent performance measures for the M/M/1 queue", IEEE Trans. Communications 37 (1989) 1102–1104. https://doi.org/10.1109/26.41165
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Fundamentals of Queueing Theory I: Foster's Criterion for Positive RecurrenceTextbook

Motivation

Almost every model in queueing theory is analysed through a Markov chain. The number of customers in an M/M/c queue is a continuous-time birth–death chain; the number left behind by departing customers of an M/G/1 queue is a discrete-parameter chain on {0,1,2,… }\{0,1,2,\dots\}{0,1,2,…} (the imbedded Markov chain); networks of queues are chains on vectors of queue lengths. Before any steady-state formula (Erlang's formulas, the Pollaczek–Khintchine formula, product forms) can be used, one has to know that the chain has a steady state at all: that it is positive recurrent, so that a stationary distribution exists and equals the limiting distribution.

Chapter 1 of Gross, Shortle, Thompson and Harris, Fundamentals of Queueing Theory (4th ed., Wiley 2008, DOI 10.1002/9781118625651), collects the two ingredients the rest of the book stands on: the Poisson process with its exponential interarrival times (§§1.7–1.8), and the classification theory of discrete-parameter Markov chains (§1.9), ending with Foster's criterion (Theorem 1.2), a sufficient condition for positive recurrence in terms of a drift inequality. The criterion goes back to F. G. Foster, On the stochastic matrices associated with certain queuing processes, Ann. Math. Statist. 24 (1953) (DOI 10.1214/aoms/1177728976), and is the ancestor of the Foster–Lyapunov method used for stability of queueing networks and stochastic systems.

This mission is the first of a series formalizing the book chapter by chapter.

Setting

A homogeneous discrete-parameter Markov chain on {0,1,2,… }\{0,1,2,\dots\}{0,1,2,…} is given by a transition matrix P={pij}P=\{p_{ij}\}P={pij​} with pij≥0p_{ij}\ge0pij​≥0 and ∑jpij=1\sum_j p_{ij}=1∑j​pij​=1 for every iii. The mmm-step transition probabilities pij(m)p_{ij}^{(m)}pij(m)​ are the entries of PmP^mPm.

The first-passage probability fij(n)f_{ij}^{(n)}fij(n)​ is the probability that the chain started in iii enters jjj for the first time at step n≥1n\ge1n≥1; for i=ji=ji=j it is the probability of first return at step nnn. The return probability is fjj=∑n≥1fjj(n)f_{jj}=\sum_{n\ge1}f_{jj}^{(n)}fjj​=∑n≥1​fjj(n)​ and the mean recurrence time is mjj=∑n≥1nfjj(n)∈[0,∞]m_{jj}=\sum_{n\ge1}n f_{jj}^{(n)}\in[0,\infty]mjj​=∑n≥1​nfjj(n)​∈[0,∞]. A state is positive recurrent if fjj=1f_{jj}=1fjj​=1 and mjj<∞m_{jj}<\inftymjj​<∞; the chain is positive recurrent if every state is.

The chain is irreducible if for every pair of states (i,j)(i,j)(i,j) some pij(n)p_{ij}^{(n)}pij(n)​ is positive, and aperiodic if for every state kkk the greatest common divisor of {n≥1:pkk(n)>0}\{n\ge1:p_{kk}^{(n)}>0\}{n≥1:pkk(n)​>0} is 111. A stationary distribution is a probability vector π\piπ with π=πP\pi=\pi Pπ=πP, i.e. πj=∑iπipij\pi_j=\sum_i\pi_i p_{ij}πj​=∑i​πi​pij​ for every jjj.

For the Poisson part, T0,T1,…T_0,T_1,\dotsT0​,T1​,… are independent interarrival times, each exponentially distributed with rate λ>0\lambda>0λ>0; the arrival epochs are Sn=T0+⋯+Tn−1S_n=T_0+\dots+T_{n-1}Sn​=T0​+⋯+Tn−1​, and N(t)=#{n≥1:Sn≤t}N(t)=\#\{n\ge1:S_n\le t\}N(t)=#{n≥1:Sn​≤t} counts the arrivals in [0,t][0,t][0,t].

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 1.2 (Foster's criterion)

An irreducible, aperiodic chain is positive recurrent if there exist xj≥0x_j\ge0xj​≥0 with

∑j=0∞pijxj≤xi−1(i≠0),∑j=0∞p0jxj<∞.\sum_{j=0}^\infty p_{ij}x_j\le x_i-1\quad(i\ne0),\qquad\sum_{j=0}^\infty p_{0j}x_j<\infty .j=0∑∞​pij​xj​≤xi​−1(i=0),j=0∑∞​p0j​xj​<∞.

Milestones: the Markov chain theorems

  • Theorem 1.1(a). In an irreducible, positive recurrent chain, πj=1/mjj\pi_j=1/m_{jj}πj​=1/mjj​ is a stationary distribution, and it is the only one.
  • Theorem 1.1(c). If moreover the chain is aperiodic and all moments of π\piπ are finite, then lim⁡m→∞pij(m)=πj\lim_{m\to\infty}p_{ij}^{(m)}=\pi_jlimm→∞​pij(m)​=πj​ for all i,ji,ji,j.

Milestones: the Poisson process and the exponential distribution

  • Eqs. (1.11)–(1.14). The unique solution of p0′=−λp0p_0'=-\lambda p_0p0′​=−λp0​, pn′=−λpn+λpn−1p_n'=-\lambda p_n+\lambda p_{n-1}pn′​=−λpn​+λpn−1​ with p0(0)=1p_0(0)=1p0​(0)=1, pn(0)=0p_n(0)=0pn​(0)=0 is pn(t)=(λt)ne−λt/n!p_n(t)=(\lambda t)^n e^{-\lambda t}/n!pn​(t)=(λt)ne−λt/n!.
  • Eq. (1.15). With exponential interarrival times,
Pr⁡{N(t)≤n}=∫t∞λ(λx)nn!e−λxdx=∑i=0n(λt)ie−λti!.\Pr\{N(t)\le n\}=\int_t^\infty\frac{\lambda(\lambda x)^n}{n!}e^{-\lambda x}dx=\sum_{i=0}^n\frac{(\lambda t)^ie^{-\lambda t}}{i!}.Pr{N(t)≤n}=∫t∞​n!λ(λx)n​e−λxdx=i=0∑n​i!(λt)ie−λt​.
  • Eq. (1.16). Given N(L)=kN(L)=kN(L)=k, the arrival epochs have density k!/Lkk!/L^kk!/Lk on {0<t1<⋯<tk<L}\{0<t_1<\dots<t_k<L\}{0<t1​<⋯<tk​<L}.
  • Eq. (1.17) and its converse (p.21). The exponential law satisfies Pr⁡{T≤t1∣T≥t0}=Pr⁡{0≤T≤t1−t0}\Pr\{T\le t_1\mid T\ge t_0\}=\Pr\{0\le T\le t_1-t_0\}Pr{T≤t1​∣T≥t0​}=Pr{0≤T≤t1​−t0​}, and it is the only continuous distribution on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞) that does.
  • Nonhomogeneous Poisson law (p.22). With a continuous rate λ(t)\lambda(t)λ(t) the forward equations have the unique solution pn(t)=e−m(t)m(t)n/n!p_n(t)=e^{-m(t)}m(t)^n/n!pn​(t)=e−m(t)m(t)n/n!, m(t)=∫0tλ(s) dsm(t)=\int_0^t\lambda(s)\,dsm(t)=∫0t​λ(s)ds.

Significance

Foster's criterion reduces positive recurrence, a statement about return times, to exhibiting one test function xxx with negative drift outside a single state. In the book it is the tool that establishes the existence of steady state for imbedded chains of the M/G/1 and G/M/1 queues (Chapter 5); its generalizations are the standard stability proofs for queueing networks. Theorem 1.1 then supplies what positive recurrence buys: the stationary distribution exists, is unique, equals 1/mjj1/m_{jj}1/mjj​, and is the limit of the transition probabilities. The Poisson results justify the "Markovian" arrivals and services of Chapters 2–4.

All of these results are classical and proved in the literature; the book states Theorems 1.1 and 1.2 without proof. The Prove2Me platform already holds machine-checked versions of related Markov chain theorems in other missions (Levin–Peres–Wilmer's and Durrett's countable-chain convergence theorems), stated with different definitions and hypotheses. What this mission adds is a formal development in the book's own terms — first-passage probabilities fjj(n)f_{jj}^{(n)}fjj(n)​, mean recurrence times mjjm_{jj}mjj​, gcd periodicity — on which the later missions of the series (imbedded chains, birth–death processes) can build, together with a formal proof of Foster's criterion, which is not on the platform.

Difficulty

For Foster's criterion the natural first step, taking expectations of the drift inequality along the chain, only shows that the expected value of xxx decreases while the chain stays away from 000. Turning that into a bound on the expected return time to 000 requires an optional-stopping or telescoping argument over a random time, with the value xxx possibly unbounded, and a separate argument that positive recurrence of state 000 propagates to all states of an irreducible chain. The book's hypotheses include aperiodicity, which the argument does not use.

For Theorem 1.1, identifying the stationary distribution with 1/mjj1/m_{jj}1/mjj​ requires relating the matrix powers PnP^nPn to the first-passage probabilities (a renewal decomposition), and uniqueness over countably many states needs care with infinite sums. For the Poisson results, the difficulty is measure-theoretic: the distribution of the sum of n+1n+1n+1 exponential variables, and conditioning on the event {N(L)=k}\{N(L)=k\}{N(L)=k} for the order-statistics property.

Formalization scope

States are natural numbers; the transition matrix is a real function p:N×N→Rp:\mathbb N\times\mathbb N\to\mathbb Rp:N×N→R with nonnegative entries and rows summing to one (as a convergent series). The return probability and the mean recurrence time are valued in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞], so null recurrence (mjj=∞m_{jj}=\inftymjj​=∞) is representable. Irreducibility is the per-pair notion. Stationary equations are stated componentwise with convergent series.

In Foster's criterion the series ∑jpijxj\sum_j p_{ij}x_j∑j​pij​xj​ are required to converge for every iii, which is the book's condition ∑jp0jxj<∞\sum_j p_{0j}x_j<\infty∑j​p0j​xj​<∞ together with the finiteness implicit in the inequalities for i≠0i\ne0i=0; xxx is real-valued and nonnegative. Dropping the convergence requirement would let a divergent row series (whose Lean sum is 000) satisfy the inequality vacuously; allowing xj=∞x_j=\inftyxj​=∞ would make the hypothesis trivially satisfiable. Neither is permitted.

The closed forms stated explicitly are: πj=1/mjj\pi_j=1/m_{jj}πj​=1/mjj​ (Theorem 1.1(a), with both existence and uniqueness), the Poisson probabilities (λt)ne−λt/n!(\lambda t)^ne^{-\lambda t}/n!(λt)ne−λt/n! (1.14), the Erlang tail integral and the Poisson CDF (1.15), the density k!/Lkk!/L^kk!/Lk (1.16), and e−m(t)m(t)n/n!e^{-m(t)}m(t)^n/n!e−m(t)m(t)n/n! for the nonhomogeneous law. Equations (1.14) and the nonhomogeneous law are stated as "solves the equations with the initial conditions if and only if equals the closed form", so both existence and uniqueness are asserted.

The Poisson results use random variables on a probability space, with Mathlib's expMeasure for the exponential law and cond for conditional probability. The derivation of the forward equations from the o(Δt)o(\Delta t)o(Δt) axioms of §1.7 is not formalized; the Poisson law is reached from the equations and, separately, from exponential interarrival times.

Not formalized: Theorem 1.1(b) and the word "ergodic" in 1.1(c), which rest on the book's informal notion of ergodicity; Theorem 1.3, whose phrase "for Theorem 1.1 to be valid" for a continuous-time chain is not pinned down.

The Markov chain definitions are reusable by every later mission that studies an imbedded chain. Contributions welcome: proofs of the milestones, and supporting lemmas (Chapman–Kolmogorov, renewal decomposition of pjj(n)p_{jj}^{(n)}pjj(n)​, class properties of recurrence).

Selected references

  • D. Gross, J. F. Shortle, J. M. Thompson, C. M. Harris, Fundamentals of Queueing Theory, 4th ed., Wiley, 2008. https://doi.org/10.1002/9781118625651
  • F. G. Foster, On the stochastic matrices associated with certain queuing processes, Annals of Mathematical Statistics 24 (1953), 355–360. https://doi.org/10.1214/aoms/1177728976
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Stochastic Dynamic Programming and the Control of Queueing Systems VII: The (BOR) Assumptions and Positive Recurrence of Optimal PoliciesTextbook

Motivation

Queueing control problems (admission control, routing, service rate selection) are naturally modelled as Markov decision chains with a countably infinite state space and unbounded costs, for instance a holding cost that grows with the queue length. For such models the long-run average cost criterion is often the relevant one, and the central question is whether an optimal stationary policy exists and can be computed from an average cost optimality equation (ACOE). Chapter 7 of Linn I. Sennott, Stochastic Dynamic Programming and the Control of Queueing Systems (Wiley, 1999, doi:10.1002/9780470317037) develops a verifiable set of conditions, the (SEN) assumptions, under which an average cost optimality inequality (ACOI) holds and yields an optimal stationary policy. The inequality may be strict (Example 7.3.1), and an optimal policy may induce a Markov chain without positive recurrent states.

Sections 7.4 and 7.5 answer two practical questions: when is the ACOI in fact an equation, and how can (SEN) be checked in a concrete model? The answer culminates in the (BOR) assumptions, which require only one well-behaved stationary policy and the finiteness of a set of low-cost states.

According to the book's bibliographic notes (p. 163): the (BOR) assumptions modify a line of development due to Borkar (SIAM J. Control Optim. 22, 1984, and 27, 1989; monograph 1991) and are weaker than his original conditions; the proof that (BOR) implies (SEN) is from Cavazos-Cadena and Sennott (Oper. Res. Letters 11, 1992), and the version of (BOR) used here is from Sennott (Prob. Eng. Inform. Sci. 7, 1993). Proposition 7.5.5 and the (CAV*) assumptions go back to Cavazos-Cadena (Kybernetika 25, 1989); Proposition 7.5.3 and Corollary 7.5.4 to Sennott (Oper. Res. 37, 1989).

Setting

A Markov decision chain consists of a countable state space SSS, finite nonempty action sets AiA_iAi​, nonnegative finite costs C(i,a)C(i,a)C(i,a) and transition probabilities Pij(a)P_{ij}(a)Pij​(a). A policy θ\thetaθ may use the whole history and randomize. For α∈(0,1)\alpha\in(0,1)α∈(0,1) the discount value function is Vα(i)=inf⁡θVθ,α(i)V_\alpha(i)=\inf_\theta V_{\theta,\alpha}(i)Vα​(i)=infθ​Vθ,α​(i), the infimum of ∑tαtEθ[C(Xt,At)∣X0=i]\sum_t\alpha^tE_\theta[C(X_t,A_t)\mid X_0=i]∑t​αtEθ​[C(Xt​,At​)∣X0​=i]; the average cost of θ\thetaθ is Jθ(i)=lim sup⁡n1nEθ[∑t<nC(Xt,At)∣X0=i]J_\theta(i)=\limsup_n\frac1nE_\theta[\sum_{t<n}C(X_t,A_t)\mid X_0=i]Jθ​(i)=limsupn​n1​Eθ​[∑t<n​C(Xt​,At​)∣X0​=i] and the minimum average cost is J(i)=inf⁡θJθ(i)J(i)=\inf_\theta J_\theta(i)J(i)=infθ​Jθ​(i). All of these lie in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞].

For a distinguished state zzz the relative value is hα(i)=Vα(i)−Vα(z)h_\alpha(i)=V_\alpha(i)-V_\alpha(z)hα​(i)=Vα​(i)−Vα​(z). The (SEN) assumptions are: (SEN1) (1−α)Vα(z)(1-\alpha)V_\alpha(z)(1−α)Vα​(z) is bounded on (0,1)(0,1)(0,1); (SEN2) hα≤Mh_\alpha\le Mhα​≤M for a finite function M≥0M\ge0M≥0; (SEN3) hα≥−Lh_\alpha\ge-Lhα​≥−L for a finite constant L≥0L\ge0L≥0. Under (SEN), J=lim⁡α→1−(1−α)Vα(i)J=\lim_{\alpha\to1^-}(1-\alpha)V_\alpha(i)J=limα→1−​(1−α)Vα​(i) is a finite constant, and a limit function hhh is a pointwise limit of hβnh_{\beta_n}hβn​​ along some βn→1−\beta_n\to1^-βn​→1−. The ACOI and ACOE read

J+h(i) ≥ (resp. =) min⁡a∈Ai{C(i,a)+∑jPij(a)h(j)},i∈S.J+h(i)\ \ge\ (\text{resp. }=)\ \min_{a\in A_i}\Big\{C(i,a)+\sum_jP_{ij}(a)h(j)\Big\},\qquad i\in S.J+h(i) ≥ (resp. =) a∈Ai​min​{C(i,a)+j∑​Pij​(a)h(j)},i∈S.

For a nonempty set GGG the first passage time is T=min⁡{n≥1:Xn∈G}T=\min\{n\ge1:X_n\in G\}T=min{n≥1:Xn​∈G}. The class ℜ(i,G)\Re(i,G)ℜ(i,G) consists of the policies that, from iii, enter GGG with probability one in finite expected time miG(θ)m_{iG}(\theta)miG​(θ); ℜ∗(i,G)\Re^*(i,G)ℜ∗(i,G) adds a finite expected first passage cost ciG(θ)=Eθ[∑t<TC(Xt,At)]c_{iG}(\theta)=E_\theta[\sum_{t<T}C(X_t,A_t)]ciG​(θ)=Eθ​[∑t<T​C(Xt​,At​)]. A (randomized) stationary policy ddd is zzz standard if the Markov chain it induces has miz<∞m_{iz}<\inftymiz​<∞ and ciz<∞c_{iz}<\inftyciz​<∞ for every iii; it then has a single positive recurrent class Rd∋zR_d\ni zRd​∋z and a finite constant average cost JdJ_dJd​.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 7.5.6

Assume (BOR): (BOR1) a zzz standard policy ddd exists; (BOR2) for some ε>0\varepsilon>0ε>0 the set D={i:C(i,a)≤Jd+ε for some a}D=\{i: C(i,a)\le J_d+\varepsilon\text{ for some }a\}D={i:C(i,a)≤Jd​+ε for some a} is finite; (BOR3) every i∈D−Rdi\in D-R_di∈D−Rd​ can be reached from zzz by some θi∈ℜ∗(z,i)\theta_i\in\Re^*(z,i)θi​∈ℜ∗(z,i). Then (SEN) holds and every limit function satisfies the ACOE; every average cost optimal stationary policy eee has a positive recurrent state in

D(e)={i:C(i,e)≤J+ε},D(e)=\{i: C(i,e)\le J+\varepsilon\},D(e)={i:C(i,e)≤J+ε},

at most ∣D(e)∣|D(e)|∣D(e)∣ positive recurrent classes and no null recurrent class; and a policy realizing the minimum in the ACOE satisfies e∈ℜ∗(i,D(e)∩R(e))e\in\Re^*(i,D(e)\cap R(e))e∈ℜ∗(i,D(e)∩R(e)) for every iii.

Milestones

  • Lemma 7.4.1: hα(i)≤ciz(θi)h_\alpha(i)\le c_{iz}(\theta_i)hα​(i)≤ciz​(θi​) for θi∈ℜ∗(i,z)\theta_i\in\Re^*(i,z)θi​∈ℜ∗(i,z), hence (SEN2).
  • Lemma 7.4.2: h(i)≤ciG(θ)−JmiG(θ)+Eθ[h(XT)]h(i)\le c_{iG}(\theta)-Jm_{iG}(\theta)+E_\theta[h(X_T)]h(i)≤ciG​(θ)−JmiG​(θ)+Eθ​[h(XT​)] for θ∈ℜ(i,G)\theta\in\Re(i,G)θ∈ℜ(i,G) under an integrability condition.
  • Theorem 7.4.3: four sufficient conditions for equality in the ACOI at a state.
  • Lemma 7.5.2: Jd=(1−α)∑i∈Rπi(d)Vd,α(i)J_d=(1-\alpha)\sum_{i\in R}\pi_i(d)V_{d,\alpha}(i)Jd​=(1−α)∑i∈R​πi​(d)Vd,α​(i) for a zzz standard ddd.
  • Proposition 7.5.3: a zzz standard policy gives (SEN1–2).
  • Corollary 7.5.4: on S={0,1,… }S=\{0,1,\dots\}S={0,1,…}, increasing VαV_\alphaVα​ plus a 000 standard policy gives (SEN), with nonnegative increasing limit functions.
  • Proposition 7.5.5: an optimal stationary policy has a positive recurrent state of cost at most J+εJ+\varepsilonJ+ε, reachable from iii, when (7.33) holds.
  • Corollaries 7.5.9 and 7.5.10: the (CAV) and (CAV*) conditions imply (BOR).

Significance

Theorem 7.5.6 reduces the verification of the ACOE for a queueing model to three checks that do not involve the discount value function: exhibit one stationary policy with finite mean return times and costs to a fixed state (typically a stable "serve at maximal rate" policy), check that low costs occur on a finite set (automatic when the holding cost grows without bound, Corollaries 7.5.9–7.5.10), and check reachability of finitely many states. Its conclusions go beyond existence: optimal stationary policies induce chains with positive recurrent classes located in a known finite set, and ACOE-realizing policies reach them in finite expected time and cost. This is what makes value iteration and approximating-sequence methods in later chapters of the book applicable to these models.

The results are proved in the book. The present mission produces machine-checked statements of the first passage calculus for general (history-dependent, randomized) policies, of (SEN) and limit functions, and of the chain of implications from (CAV*) to the ACOE. No machine-checked version of these statements is known.

Difficulty

The obvious approach to the ACOE is to pass to the limit α→1−\alpha\to1^-α→1− in the discount optimality equation. Exchanging this limit with ∑jPij(a)hα(j)\sum_jP_{ij}(a)h_\alpha(j)∑j​Pij​(a)hα​(j) requires a dominating function, and (SEN2) only gives a pointwise bound MMM whose expectation may be infinite; Fatou's lemma then yields only the inequality. Obtaining equality requires tracking first passages to sets and showing that the discrepancy Φ\PhiΦ vanishes along them, which in turn needs finiteness of ciGc_{iG}ciG​ that is not assumed but has to be derived. On the recurrence side, the average cost criterion is a limit superior of Cesàro averages over a countable state space, and mass can escape to infinity; the finiteness of the set DDD is what prevents an optimal policy from spending its time in transient or null recurrent states, and turning that into positive recurrence requires the renewal-type identities of Appendix C.

Formalization scope

States form a countable type SSS; action sets are nonempty Finsets; costs are in ℝ≥0; transition probabilities are ℝ≥0∞-valued with row sums one on admissible actions. Policies are general: a history is a state sequence and an action sequence, and all probabilities and expectations (hitting probabilities, miGm_{iG}miG​, ciGc_{iG}ciG​, Pθ(XT=j)P_\theta(X_T=j)Pθ​(XT​=j), Qij(n)Q^{(n)}_{ij}Qij(n)​) are computed from the history probabilities of the process. VαV_\alphaVα​, JθJ_\thetaJθ​, miGm_{iG}miG​ and ciGc_{iG}ciG​ take values in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞]; miG=∞m_{iG}=\inftymiG​=∞ when GGG is missed with positive probability; the first passage time satisfies T≥1T\ge1T≥1. hαh_\alphahα​ and ∑jPij(a)h(j)\sum_jP_{ij}(a)h(j)∑j​Pij​(a)h(j) are in the extended reals, with the book's convention that a function bounded below has an expectation in (−∞,+∞](-\infty,+\infty](−∞,+∞]. Limit functions are real valued. Positive recurrence, communicating classes and steady state probabilities πj=(mjj)−1\pi_j=(m_{jj})^{-1}πj​=(mjj​)−1 are the notions for the chain induced by a (randomized) stationary policy. JdJ_dJd​ is the average cost of ddd from zzz.

A formalization in which the ACOE is asserted for some convenient function instead of every limit function, or in which ∣D(e)∣|D(e)|∣D(e)∣ is a natural-number cardinality that vanishes on infinite sets, would trivialize part of the goal; the statements quantify over all limit functions and use Set.encard.

A complete development needs: history-dependent policies and their path laws on countable spaces; first passage decompositions (strong Markov property at TTT); Abelian limits of ∑tαtP(T=t)\sum_t\alpha^tP(T=t)∑t​αtP(T=t); Fatou and dominated convergence for series; and the renewal reward theorem for positive recurrent classes (Appendix C of the book). The first passage and Markov chain layer is reusable beyond this mission. Proofs of individual milestones, and sharper statements of the Appendix C facts they use, are welcome.

Selected references

  • L. I. Sennott, Stochastic Dynamic Programming and the Control of Queueing Systems, Wiley Series in Probability and Statistics, John Wiley & Sons, 1999. doi:10.1002/9780470317037
  • V. S. Borkar, "On minimum cost per unit time control of Markov chains", SIAM J. Control Optim. 22 (1984), 965–978.
  • V. S. Borkar, "Control of Markov chains with long-run average cost criterion: the dynamic programming equations", SIAM J. Control Optim. 27 (1989), 642–657.
  • V. S. Borkar, Topics in Controlled Markov Chains, Pitman Research Notes in Mathematics 240, Longman, 1991.
  • R. Cavazos-Cadena, "Weak conditions for the existence of optimal stationary policies in average Markov decision chains with unbounded costs", Kybernetika 25 (1989), 145–156.
  • R. Cavazos-Cadena and L. I. Sennott, "Comparing recent assumptions for the existence of average optimal stationary policies", Oper. Res. Letters 11 (1992), 33–37.
  • L. I. Sennott, "The average cost optimality equation and critical number policies", Prob. Eng. Inform. Sci. 7 (1993).
  • L. I. Sennott, "Average cost optimal stationary policies in infinite state Markov decision processes with unbounded costs", Operations Research 37 (1989), 626–633. doi:10.1287/opre.37.4.626
  • K. L. Chung, Markov Chains with Stationary Transition Probabilities, 2nd ed., Springer, 1967.
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Dynamic ProgrammingOperations ResearchProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

Stochastic Dynamic Programming and the Control of Queueing Systems VI: The (SEN) Assumptions and the Average Cost Optimality InequalityTextbook

Motivation

Queueing control problems (admission control, routing, service-rate selection, flow control) are naturally posed as Markov decision chains with a denumerably infinite state space, such as the number of customers in a buffer, and are usually judged by their long-run average cost per unit time. When the state space is finite, Chapter 6 of Sennott's book shows that an average cost optimal stationary policy always exists. On a countable state space this fails: Section 7.1 of the book gives examples in which no average cost optimal policy exists, and one in which no stationary policy comes within a given distance of the minimum average cost. The question addressed by this mission is under which verifiable conditions on the discounted value functions a countable-state model has a constant minimum average cost and an optimal stationary policy.

Timeline, following the book's bibliographic notes (p. 163). The book names Taylor (1965) and Derman (1966) as earlier pivotal work and Ross (1968), and his 1983 textbook, as the direct predecessor. Sennott (1989, Operations Research 37) weakened Ross's assumptions to cover models with unbounded costs, and proved the main result of Section 7.2; the (SEN) assumptions of Chapter 7 are the cleaner version of Sennott (1993). Cavazos-Cadena (1991) gave the example, adapted as Example 7.3.1 of the book, showing that under these assumptions the optimality inequality can be strict. The weaker (H*) assumptions of Section 7.7 appear, in a slightly different form, in Sennott (1995). Part (iv) of Theorem 7.2.3 is new in the book.

Setting

A Markov decision chain (MDC) Δ\DeltaΔ has a countable state space SSS, for each state iii a finite nonempty action set AiA_iAi​, a nonnegative finite cost C(i,a)C(i,a)C(i,a), and transition probabilities Pij(a)P_{ij}(a)Pij​(a) with ∑jPij(a)=1\sum_j P_{ij}(a) = 1∑j​Pij​(a)=1. A policy θ\thetaθ chooses the action at time nnn at random according to a distribution that may depend on the whole history (X0,A0,…,Xn)(X_0, A_0, \dots, X_n)(X0​,A0​,…,Xn​); a stationary policy fff always chooses f(i)∈Aif(i) \in A_if(i)∈Ai​ in state iii.

For an initial state iii, the nnn-horizon cost is vθ,n(i)=∑t=0n−1Eθ[C(Xt,At)∣X0=i]v_{\theta,n}(i) = \sum_{t=0}^{n-1} E_\theta[C(X_t,A_t) \mid X_0 = i]vθ,n​(i)=∑t=0n−1​Eθ​[C(Xt​,At​)∣X0​=i], the average cost is Jθ(i)=lim sup⁡nvθ,n(i)/nJ_\theta(i) = \limsup_{n} v_{\theta,n}(i)/nJθ​(i)=limsupn​vθ,n​(i)/n, and the minimum average cost is J(i)=inf⁡θJθ(i)J(i) = \inf_\theta J_\theta(i)J(i)=infθ​Jθ​(i) over all policies. A policy is average cost optimal if Jθ≡JJ_\theta \equiv JJθ​≡J. For α∈(0,1)\alpha \in (0,1)α∈(0,1) the discounted value function is Vα(i)=inf⁡θ∑t≥0αtEθ[C(Xt,At)∣X0=i]V_\alpha(i) = \inf_\theta \sum_{t \ge 0} \alpha^t E_\theta[C(X_t,A_t) \mid X_0 = i]Vα​(i)=infθ​∑t≥0​αtEθ​[C(Xt​,At​)∣X0​=i]. All these quantities lie in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞].

Fix a distinguished state zzz and put hα(i)=Vα(i)−Vα(z)h_\alpha(i) = V_\alpha(i) - V_\alpha(z)hα​(i)=Vα​(i)−Vα​(z). The (SEN) assumptions are:

  • (SEN1) (1−α)Vα(z)(1-\alpha)V_\alpha(z)(1−α)Vα​(z) is bounded for α∈(0,1)\alpha \in (0,1)α∈(0,1);
  • (SEN2) there is a nonnegative finite function MMM with hα(i)≤M(i)h_\alpha(i) \le M(i)hα​(i)≤M(i) for all iii and α\alphaα;
  • (SEN3) there is a nonnegative finite constant LLL with −L≤hα(i)-L \le h_\alpha(i)−L≤hα​(i) for all iii and α\alphaα.

A limit function hhh is a pointwise limit of hβnh_{\beta_n}hβn​​ along some sequence βn→1−\beta_n \to 1^-βn​→1−. If fαf_\alphafα​ is a stationary policy realizing the discount optimality equation Vα(i)=min⁡a{C(i,a)+α∑jPij(a)Vα(j)}V_\alpha(i) = \min_a \{C(i,a) + \alpha\sum_j P_{ij}(a)V_\alpha(j)\}Vα​(i)=mina​{C(i,a)+α∑j​Pij​(a)Vα​(j)}, a limit point fff is a stationary policy with fβn(i)=f(i)f_{\beta_n}(i) = f(i)fβn​​(i)=f(i) for large nnn, for each iii, along some βn→1−\beta_n \to 1^-βn​→1−.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 7.2.3

Under (SEN), there is a finite constant J=lim⁡α→1−(1−α)Vα(i)J = \lim_{\alpha\to1^-}(1-\alpha)V_\alpha(i)J=limα→1−​(1−α)Vα​(i) independent of iii; limit functions exist, satisfy −L≤h≤M-L \le h \le M−L≤h≤M and the average cost optimality inequality (ACOI)

J+h(i)≥min⁡a∈Ai{C(i,a)+∑jPij(a)h(j)},i∈S;J + h(i) \ge \min_{a \in A_i}\Big\{C(i,a) + \sum_j P_{ij}(a)h(j)\Big\}, \qquad i \in S;J+h(i)≥a∈Ai​min​{C(i,a)+j∑​Pij​(a)h(j)},i∈S;

every stationary policy realizing the minimum is average cost optimal with Je≡JJ_e \equiv JJe​≡J and Ee[h(Xn)]/n→0E_e[h(X_n)]/n \to 0Ee​[h(Xn​)]/n→0; every limit point of discount optimal stationary policies is average cost optimal and satisfies the corresponding inequality for an associated limit function; and the average cost of any optimal policy is a limit, not only a limit supremum.

Milestones

  • Proposition 7.1.1: finitely many initial transitions with finite cost do not change JθJ_\thetaJθ​.
  • Lemma 7.2.1: a bounded-below solution (J,h)(J,h)(J,h) of the ACOI inequality for a stationary eee gives Je≤JJ_e \le JJe​≤J.
  • Proposition B.6: a sequence of functions squeezed between −L-L−L and MMM on a countable set has a pointwise convergent subsequence.
  • Proposition 7.2.4: (SEN) does not depend on the choice of zzz.
  • Proposition 7.7.1: (SEN) ⇒\Rightarrow⇒ (H*) ⇒\Rightarrow⇒ (H).
  • Proposition 7.7.2: the conclusions of Theorem 7.2.3 hold under (H), with a state-dependent lower bound L(i)L(i)L(i).

Significance

Theorem 7.2.3 is the existence theorem the rest of Chapter 7 builds on (p. 128): the ACOE results of Section 7.4, the (BOR) and (CAV) sufficient conditions of Section 7.5, and the worked queueing models of Section 7.6 all work under (SEN) and invoke it. It justifies computing an average cost optimal policy for a queueing model as a limit of discount optimal policies, and it shows that the minimum average cost is the Abelian limit of the normalized discounted value.

The results are proved in the book and in Sennott (1989, 1993, 1995), but none of them has a machine-checked proof: Mathlib has no Markov decision processes, and the platform's average cost results concern finite state spaces or Borel models with different assumptions. The formalization produces a general-policy, countable-state MDC development with extended-real values, reusable by the later missions of this series.

Difficulty

On a finite state space the relative value functions are bounded and the Abelian limit (1−α)Vα(1-\alpha)V_\alpha(1−α)Vα​ can be controlled directly. Here hαh_\alphahα​ is bounded above only by a function MMM that may be unbounded, so passing to the limit in the discounted optimality equation ∑jPij(a)hα(j)\sum_j P_{ij}(a)h_\alpha(j)∑j​Pij​(a)hα​(j) cannot use dominated convergence, and in general only an inequality survives in the limit; Example 7.3.1 shows that the inequality in the ACOI can be strict. Showing that a policy realizing the ACOI is optimal requires control of Ee[h(Xn)]/nE_e[h(X_n)]/nEe​[h(Xn​)]/n for a function hhh that is unbounded above, and part (iv) requires comparing the limit inferior and limit superior of Cesàro averages for an arbitrary, possibly history-dependent optimal policy.

Formalization scope

The state space is any countable type ([Countable S]); actions form a type with finite nonempty Finset action sets; costs are ℝ≥0; transition probabilities, costs over time and value functions are ℝ≥0∞. Policies are general: randomized and history dependent, with histories encoded as finite state and action sequences and the process law built by an explicit recursive product. Finite horizon costs have terminal cost 000, as the chapter prescribes.

The relative value hα(i)=Vα(i)−Vα(z)h_\alpha(i) = V_\alpha(i) - V_\alpha(z)hα​(i)=Vα​(i)−Vα​(z) is computed in EReal, never through a truncated real subtraction: a state with Vα(i)=∞V_\alpha(i) = \inftyVα​(i)=∞ gives hα(i)=+∞h_\alpha(i) = +\inftyhα​(i)=+∞, so (SEN2) cannot hold through a junk value, and (SEN1) is a bound by a finite constant that itself forces Vα(z)<∞V_\alpha(z) < \inftyVα​(z)<∞. Sums ∑jPij(a)h(j)\sum_j P_{ij}(a)h(j)∑j​Pij​(a)h(j) and expectations E[h(Xn)]E[h(X_n)]E[h(Xn​)] of real functions are extended reals, computed as positive part minus negative part; they are never Bochner integrals and never default to 000 when not summable. The limit α→1−\alpha \to 1^-α→1− is the filter 𝓝[<] 1. Limit functions and limit points follow Definition 7.2.2 literally, over arbitrary sequences αn→1−\alpha_n \to 1^-αn​→1− in (0,1)(0,1)(0,1), and the (SEN), (H), (H*) sets are predicates carrying their witnesses MMM and LLL.

A development that bounds only hαh_\alphahα​ as a free function, rather than the one built from the infimum over all policies, or that quantifies only over stationary policies in J(i)J(i)J(i), proves a different and weaker theorem and does not count.

Needed infrastructure: the law of the controlled process under a general policy, monotone and Fatou-type limit interchanges for countable sums, the Abelian inequality lim sup⁡(1−α)∑αtct≤lim sup⁡1n∑t<nct\limsup(1-\alpha)\sum\alpha^t c_t \le \limsup \frac1n\sum_{t<n}c_tlimsup(1−α)∑αtct​≤limsupn1​∑t<n​ct​ (Proposition 6.1.1 of the book), and the existence and optimality of discount optimal stationary policies (Theorem 4.1.4). The MDC layer and these two results are shared with other missions of the series; contributions to them are welcome.

Selected references

  • L. I. Sennott, Stochastic Dynamic Programming and the Control of Queueing Systems, Wiley, 1999, Chapter 7 (pp. 127–166) and Appendix B. https://doi.org/10.1002/9780470317037
  • L. I. Sennott, Average cost optimal stationary policies in infinite state Markov decision processes with unbounded costs, Operations Research 37 (1989) 626–633. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.37.4.626
  • L. I. Sennott, The average cost optimality equation and critical number policies, Probability in the Engineering and Informational Sciences 7 (1993). (Cited in the book's bibliography, p. 321.)
  • L. I. Sennott, Another set of conditions for average optimality in Markov control processes, Systems & Control Letters 24 (1995) 147–151. (Cited in the book's bibliography.)
  • R. Cavazos-Cadena, A counterexample on the optimality equation in Markov decision chains with the average cost criterion, Systems & Control Letters 16 (1991) 387–392. (Cited in the book's bibliography.)
  • S. M. Ross, Non-discounted denumerable Markovian decision models, Annals of Mathematical Statistics 39 (1968) 412–423. (Cited in the book's bibliography.)
  • H. M. Taylor, Markovian sequential replacement processes, Annals of Mathematical Statistics 36 (1965) 1677–1694. (Cited in the book's bibliography.)
  • E. A. Feinberg and Y. Liang, On the optimality equation for average cost Markov decision processes and its validity for inventory control; formalized on Prove2Me in the mission of the same name (Borel state spaces, a different model).
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Analysis and Algorithms for Service Parts Supply Chains VII: Palm's Theorem for Nonstationary DemandTextbook

Motivation

Spare-parts inventory models for repairable items rest on Palm's theorem: if demands arrive as a Poisson process with constant rate λ\lambdaλ and each demanded unit spends an independent, identically distributed resupply time with mean τˉ\bar\tauτˉ in the pipeline, the number of units in resupply is Poisson with mean λτˉ\lambda\bar\tauλτˉ in steady state. Stock levels, backorders and fill rates are all computed from that distribution.

Both assumptions fail in practice. Military flying programmes ramp up and down within weeks, repair shops close for periods, and commercial parts distribution centres see demand that varies by day of the week. Chapter 9 of Muckstadt's Analysis and Algorithms for Service Parts Supply Chains (Springer 2005, DOI 10.1007/b138879) extends Palm's theorem to a nonstationary Poisson demand process with time-dependent resupply-time distributions, gives the compound (multi-unit order) version, and uses the result to compute, at any time ttt, the distribution of units in repair at the depot of a two-echelon system.

Timeline: Palm (1938) proved the stationary result for telephone traffic; Feeney and Sherbrooke (1966) extended it to compound Poisson demand; Hillestad and Carrillo (RAND, 1980) and Crawford (RAND, 1981) developed the time-dependent extensions, summarized by Carrillo (RAND, 1989). The chapter presents these results.

Setting

A single item is stocked at one location, and every demand is for one unit.

  • Demand rate λ(s)≥0\lambda(s) \ge 0λ(s)≥0, integrable on bounded intervals, with mean function m(t)=∫0tλ(s) dsm(t) = \int_0^t \lambda(s)\,dsm(t)=∫0t​λ(s)ds.
  • Demand process: a nonstationary Poisson process with mean function mmm, with N(0)=0N(0) = 0N(0)=0. N(t)N(t)N(t) counts demands in [0,t][0,t][0,t] and T0<T1<⋯T_0 < T_1 < \cdotsT0​<T1​<⋯ are the demand epochs.
  • Resupply times: a unit demanded at time sss is resupplied within www time units with probability Gs(w)G_s(w)Gs​(w). Resupply times are nonnegative, have finite expectations, are independent from unit to unit, and are independent of the demand process.
  • X(t)X(t)X(t) is the number of units in resupply at time ttt: demands in [0,t][0,t][0,t] whose resupply is not complete at ttt.

The mean of X(t)X(t)X(t) is

α(t)=∫0t(1−Gs(t−s))λ(s) ds.\alpha(t) = \int_0^t \bigl(1 - G_s(t-s)\bigr)\lambda(s)\,ds.α(t)=∫0t​(1−Gs​(t−s))λ(s)ds.

In the compound version (Section 9.2), orders arrive as above and each order is for Q≥1Q \ge 1Q≥1 units, with a time-stationary law uj=P(Q=j)u_j = P(Q = j)uj​=P(Q=j). All units of an order share its resupply time, Y(t)Y(t)Y(t) counts units demanded in [0,t][0,t][0,t], and uk(n)u^{(n)}_kuk(n)​ is the nnn-fold convolution of (uj)(u_j)(uj​).

In the two-echelon version (Section 9.3), base iii has failure rate λi\lambda_iλi​. A failure is repaired at the base with probability rir_iri​ and at the depot otherwise. Depot repair of a failure occurring at time uuu takes a deterministic time D(u)D(u)D(u) with D(t)+t≥D(s)+sD(t) + t \ge D(s) + sD(t)+t≥D(s)+s for s<ts < ts<t (no crossing). Write t~=inf⁡{u≥0:D(u)+u>t}\tilde t = \inf\{u \ge 0 : D(u) + u > t\}t~=inf{u≥0:D(u)+u>t}.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 13 (p. 216)

For every t≥0t \ge 0t≥0,

P{X(t)=k}=e−α(t)α(t)kk!,k=0,1,2,…P\{X(t) = k\} = e^{-\alpha(t)}\frac{\alpha(t)^k}{k!}, \qquad k = 0,1,2,\dotsP{X(t)=k}=e−α(t)k!α(t)k​,k=0,1,2,…

This is an exact statement at each finite time, not a limit. With constant λ\lambdaλ and Gs=GG_s = GGs​=G it reduces to the finite-time step of Palm's theorem.

Milestones

  1. E[N(t)]=m(t)E[N(t)] = m(t)E[N(t)]=m(t) (Section 9.1, p. 216).
  2. Theorem 12 (p. 216): given N(t)=nN(t) = nN(t)=n, the epochs T0,…,Tn−1T_0, \dots, T_{n-1}T0​,…,Tn−1​ are distributed as the order statistics of nnn i.i.d. variables with distribution function F(x)=m(x)/m(t)F(x) = m(x)/m(t)F(x)=m(x)/m(t) on [0,t)[0,t)[0,t).
  3. The binomial step of the proof of Theorem 13 (pp. 216–217): P{X(t)=k∣N(t)=n}=(nk)pk(1−p)n−kP\{X(t) = k \mid N(t) = n\} = \binom nk p^k(1-p)^{n-k}P{X(t)=k∣N(t)=n}=(kn​)pk(1−p)n−k, with p=∫0t(1−Gs(t−s))λ(s)/m(t) dsp = \int_0^t (1 - G_s(t-s))\lambda(s)/m(t)\,dsp=∫0t​(1−Gs​(t−s))λ(s)/m(t)ds.
  4. Section 9.2 (p. 218): E[Y(t)]=m(t)E[Q]E[Y(t)] = m(t)E[Q]E[Y(t)]=m(t)E[Q] and Var⁡[Y(t)]=m(t)E[Q2]\operatorname{Var}[Y(t)] = m(t)E[Q^2]Var[Y(t)]=m(t)E[Q2].
  5. Theorem 14 (p. 218): P[X(t)=k]=∑n≥1uk(n)e−α(t)α(t)n/n!P[X(t) = k] = \sum_{n\ge1} u^{(n)}_k e^{-\alpha(t)}\alpha(t)^n/n!P[X(t)=k]=∑n≥1​uk(n)​e−α(t)α(t)n/n! for k≥1k \ge 1k≥1, and e−α(t)e^{-\alpha(t)}e−α(t) at k=0k = 0k=0.
  6. Section 9.3.2 (p. 221): P{X0(t)=k}=e−m0(t~,t)m0(t~,t)k/k!P\{X_0(t) = k\} = e^{-m_0(\tilde t,t)} m_0(\tilde t,t)^k/k!P{X0​(t)=k}=e−m0​(t~,t)m0​(t~,t)k/k! with m0(t~,t)=∫t~t∑iλi(u)(1−ri) dum_0(\tilde t,t) = \int_{\tilde t}^t \sum_i \lambda_i(u)(1-r_i)\,dum0​(t~,t)=∫t~t​∑i​λi​(u)(1−ri​)du.

A plain supporting item states that N(t)N(t)N(t) is Poisson with mean m(t)m(t)m(t), the factor the proof of Theorem 13 uses.

Significance

Theorem 13 gives the full distribution of the pipeline at every instant. Time-dependent expected backorders, ∑x>s(t)(x−s(t))P{X(t)=x}\sum_{x > s(t)} (x - s(t)) P\{X(t) = x\}∑x>s(t)​(x−s(t))P{X(t)=x}, and fill rates P{X(t)<s(t)}P\{X(t) < s(t)\}P{X(t)<s(t)} follow from it, so stock levels can be planned against a surge or a repair outage without a steady-state approximation. Theorem 14 does the same for multi-unit orders. The depot result feeds the base-level convolution of Section 9.3.3, which in turn gives time-dependent performance measures for a two-echelon system.

These results are proved in the literature, and the chapter reproduces the proofs of Theorems 13 and 14. It cites Theorem 12 without proof ("similar to the one given in Chapter 3"). No machine-checked version of any of them is known, and neither Mathlib nor this platform has a Poisson process, stationary or not, a thinning theorem, or an order-statistics theorem. The formal content of this mission therefore includes the construction and the first distributional facts of the nonstationary Poisson process.

Difficulty

The algebra of the proof is a Poisson mixture of binomials and is short. The difficulty is Theorem 12 and its use. The obvious argument treats "the nnn demands in [0,t][0,t][0,t]" as nnn independent draws from FFF and assigns each an independent resupply time with law GdrawG_{\text{draw}}Gdraw​. Making this rigorous requires identifying the conditional joint law of the epochs given N(t)=nN(t) = nN(t)=n. The resupply time of the jjj-th demand is not independent of its epoch: its law depends on the epoch. So it must be shown that, after conditioning, the marks attached to sorted epochs behave like marks attached to unsorted i.i.d. draws. The book's constant-rate argument (Chapter 3) uses the uniform density n!/tnn!/t^nn!/tn on the simplex. Here the density involves λ\lambdaλ, which may vanish on intervals, and mmm need not be invertible.

Formalization scope

  • Demand process. The nonstationary Poisson process is constructed, not postulated. With i.i.d. exponential(1) gaps and unit-rate points Γk=A0+⋯+Ak\Gamma_k = A_0 + \cdots + A_kΓk​=A0​+⋯+Ak​, the kkk-th demand occurs at Tk=inf⁡{s≥0:m(s)≥Γk}T_k = \inf\{s \ge 0 : m(s) \ge \Gamma_k\}Tk​=inf{s≥0:m(s)≥Γk​}, and N(t)=#{k:Γk≤m(t)}N(t) = \#\{k : \Gamma_k \le m(t)\}N(t)=#{k:Γk​≤m(t)}.
  • Resupply times. Resupply times are ρ(Tk,Uk)\rho(T_k, U_k)ρ(Tk​,Uk​) for a jointly measurable ρ≥0\rho \ge 0ρ≥0 and i.i.d. marks UkU_kUk​ independent of the gaps, with Gs(w)=ν{ρ(s,⋅)≤w}G_s(w) = \nu\{\rho(s,\cdot) \le w\}Gs​(w)=ν{ρ(s,⋅)≤w}. Every measurable family GsG_sGs​ arises this way, and joint measurability makes α(t)\alpha(t)α(t) a genuine integral. Independence of resupply times from the demand process is not written in Theorem 12 or 13 but is used in the proof; it is part of the model.
  • Pinnings and conventions.
    • "λ\lambdaλ integrable" is read as integrable on bounded intervals.
    • Time is t≥0t \ge 0t≥0.
    • Theorem 12 assumes m(t)>0m(t) > 0m(t)>0, since FFF is 0/00/00/0 otherwise, and sets F=0F = 0F=0 on (−∞,0)(-\infty,0)(−∞,0).
    • Conditional probabilities are written as joint probabilities.
    • E[Y(t)]E[Y(t)]E[Y(t)] is stated in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞]; the variance identity assumes E[Q2]<∞E[Q^2] < \inftyE[Q2]<∞.
    • t~\tilde tt~ is an infimum over u≥0u \ge 0u≥0, and D≥0D \ge 0D≥0.
    • Counts are cardinalities, and are 000 on the null event where they would be infinite.
  • Corrections. Theorem 14's printed sum starts at n=1n = 1n=1, which gives P[X(t)=0]=0P[X(t) = 0] = 0P[X(t)=0]=0. The statement keeps the book's formula for k≥1k \ge 1k≥1 and adds P[X(t)=0]=e−α(t)P[X(t) = 0] = e^{-\alpha(t)}P[X(t)=0]=e−α(t). The depot's Poisson demand stream with rate ∑iλi(1−ri)\sum_i \lambda_i(1-r_i)∑i​λi​(1−ri​) is generated from the bases' processes and independent repair-location choices, not assumed.
  • Not stated.
    • Eqs. (9.1)–(9.2), the FCFS depot backorders owed to base iii: the derivation on p. 221 is informal, and (9.1) prints the exponent s0(t−1)s_0(t-1)s0​(t−1) for s0(t)−1s_0(t)-1s0​(t)−1.
    • The base analysis of Section 9.3.3.
    • The compound law of Y(t)Y(t)Y(t) on p. 217, which has the same n=0n = 0n=0 omission.
  • Trivialization ruled out. X(t)X(t)X(t) is computed from the demand epochs and resupply times, not defined by its law, and resupply times cannot depend on the demand epochs except through the prescribed GsG_sGs​. Either shortcut would make the goal empty or false.
  • Infrastructure. The time-changed Poisson construction, its count law, the order-statistics property and marked thinning are reusable well beyond this chapter: in queueing (Mt/Gt/∞M_t/G_t/\inftyMt​/Gt​/∞), in reliability, and in the stationary Palm mission of this series. Contributions of these general lemmas are welcome.

Selected references

  • J. A. Muckstadt, Analysis and Algorithms for Service Parts Supply Chains, Springer, 2005, Chapter 9, pp. 215–222. https://doi.org/10.1007/b138879
  • C. Palm, "Analysis of the Erlang traffic formulae for busy-signal arrangements", Ericsson Technics 5, 1938, 39–58.
  • G. J. Feeney and C. C. Sherbrooke, "The (s−1, s) inventory policy under compound Poisson demand", Management Science 12(5), 1966, 391–411. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.12.5.391
  • R. J. Hillestad and M. J. Carrillo, Models and techniques for recoverable item stockage when demand and the repair processes are nonstationary — Part I: Performance measurement, Report N-1482-AF, RAND Corporation, 1980.
  • G. B. Crawford, Palm's theorem for nonstationary processes, Report R-2750-RC, RAND Corporation, 1981.
  • M. J. Carrillo, Generalizations of Palm's theorem and Dyna-METRIC's demand and pipeline variability, Report R-3698-AF, RAND Corporation, 1989.
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Elements of Queueing Theory V: Strassen's Theorems and the Stochastic Ordering of QueuesTextbook

Strassen's Theorems and the Stochastic Ordering of Queues

Background

Chapters 1–3 of Baccelli and Brémaud's Elements of Queueing Theory compute exact quantities: Palm identities, stability criteria, PASTA, Pollaczek–Khinchin. Chapter 4 asks a different question. When you cannot compute a queue, can you at least say it is better than another one?

That requires an order on distributions. The chapter builds a family of them — integral orders — by choosing a class ℒ of test functions and declaring F ≤_ℒ G when ∫f dF ≤ ∫f dG for all f ∈ ℒ. Three matter: {i} the non-decreasing functions, giving the strong (stochastic) order; {cx} the convex functions, giving the convex order; and their intersection {icx}.

The goal

An integral order compares two distributions that need not live on the same probability space, and that is both its convenience and its difficulty. Strassen's theorems say each of these orders is secretly a statement about a coupling.

Theorem 4.2.2 (p.278), Strassen's ≤_cx theorem:

F ≤_cx G   ⟺   ∃ X ~ F, Y ~ G on one space with  E[Y | X] = X  a.s.
F ≤_icx G  ⟺   the same with  E[Y | X] ≥ X  a.s.

The convex order holds exactly when G is a martingale dilation of F — obtained by spreading each point out without moving its conditional mean. That is what makes the order usable: comparison results for queues become induction arguments on a coupling instead of analytic manipulations of convolutions of c.d.f.'s.

Its companion Theorem 4.2.1 is the ≤_st version, where the coupling is the simpler X ≤ Y a.s. In dimension one both are explicit — take X = F⁻¹(U), Y = G⁻¹(U) for a uniform U. In dimension n there is no such formula, and that is why these are Strassen's theorems. The book attributes both to Strassen (1965) and proves neither.

Why FIFO is optimal

§4.1 is a different kind of comparison: not between two queues, but between two service disciplines for the same queue. The order there is majorization ≺, which compares how spread out two vectors of the same total are.

The answer is that FIFO minimizes E⁰[f(V)] for every convex f (Property 4.1.3), and the proof is an interchange argument. Under any non-preemptive discipline that uses no information on the service times, customer k effectively receives service σ_{γ(k)} for some permutation γ; Lemma 4.1.3 shows the same queue is produced by FIFO fed with that reordered input, and that the reordering does not change the law of the input. Lemma 4.1.4 passes to the limit, which needs ρ < 1. Lemmas 4.1.1 and 4.1.2 then do the combinatorics: undoing one inversion of γ makes the waiting-time vector less spread out, so the identity permutation — FIFO — is extremal.

Feller's paradox, and what survives it

§4.4 compares time-stationary queues, and opens with a warning. T_n[P⁰] ≤_i T̃_n[P̃⁰] for every n does not imply T_n[P] ≤_i T̃_n[P̃]: Example 4.4.1, "Feller's paradox revisited", exhibits a Poisson process and a renewal process where the Palm order holds and the stationary one fails. The order does not pass from the Palm probability to the stationary one.

For ≤_cx it does. Lemma 4.4.1 is why: it expands E_P[f(N[0,x))] as a series of second differences of f against Palm expectations, and a convex f makes every coefficient non-negative. Lemma 4.4.2 handles the S-orders, built by dividing Palm integrals by the mean cycle length, and shows that the normalisation does not hide the comparison it normalises by.

Formalization scope

  • Orders. ≤_i, ≤_cx, ≤_icx on distributions on ℝⁿ are integral orders over the book's test classes (§4.2.1), with the page's qualification that only test functions with well-defined integrals count. Majorization ≺ is (4.1.2) with increasing reorderings of both vectors.
  • Strassen. Both theorems are stated as equivalences, with the coupling existential over the probability space. Theorem 4.2.2 carries both clauses — E[Y | X] = X for ≤_cx, E[Y | X] ≥ X for ≤_icx, as conditional expectations given σ(X) — and assumes both distributions integrable; Theorem 4.2.1 has no integrability hypothesis. A one-directional statement (the Jensen half) is not the theorem.
  • The queue of §4.1.3 is constructed: a GI/GI input (i.i.d. inter-arrival and service times, independent), a single work-conserving server started empty, and any non-preemptive discipline whose choices are measurable in the information the book's σ-field 𝒢_t carries (arrivals, service times of customers already started) plus external randomisation. FIFO is one such discipline. The interchange permutations γ_n and their limit γ are built from the schedule as on pp.268–270; Lemma 4.1.4 assumes ρ = E[σ₀]/E[τ₀] < 1.
  • Lemma 4.4.1 is stated with the exact second-difference series and assumes that series converges absolutely; the page states it for all f, which fails for heavy-tailed counts and sparse f.
  • The S-orders test against {I-ℒ} — primitives ∫_0^t f(u, x) du of test functions — and apply only to distributions whose first coordinate is a.s. positive with a finite mean.

What this mission provides

None of it exists. Mathlib has no stochastic order, no convex order, no increasing-convex order, no majorization, no Schur-convexity and no Strassen theorem; the platform returns zero hits for q=stochastic ordering. Everything in this chapter is new substrate — and §§4.1–4.2 need nothing from Palm calculus, so this mission can be read on its own.

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Elements of Queueing Theory IV: PASTA and the Formulas of Palm CalculusTextbook

PASTA and the Formulas of Palm Calculus

Background

Chapter 1 of Baccelli and Brémaud's Elements of Queueing Theory builds Palm calculus. Chapter 2 settles when a queue has a stationary regime. Chapter 3 is called simply Formulas, and it is what the first two chapters were for: it computes.

The pattern is always the same. A quantity of interest is observed two ways — from a clock fixed in time, and from an arriving customer — and Palm calculus converts between them. Little's law, the Pollaczek–Khinchin formula and the rate conservation principle are all instances.

The goal

Theorem 3.3.1 (p.211) is the one that says when the two views coincide.

This classical result of queueing theory states, in rough terms, that if the arrival point process is Poisson, operational characteristics of the system computed just before arrival times and at arbitrary times are the same (Poisson Arrivals See Time Averages). Some care must be exercised in the application of this principle, and we now give a precise statement, in the θ_t-framework.

E⁰_A[f(Z(0))] = E[f(Z(0))]                                                            (3.3.1)

for every F_t-predictable, flow-compatible {Z(t)} and every non-negative measurable f, whenever A admits the constant F_t-intensity λ; and, under ergodicity,

lim_N (1/N) Σ_{n=1}^N f(Z(T_n)) = lim_T (1/T) ∫_0^T f(Z(s)) ds .                       (3.3.2)

The "some care" is the word predictable. PASTA is false without it: an arrival that changes the state it then observes does not see the time average, and that is exactly what predictability — measurability for the F_t-predictable σ-field, generated by the sets (a,b] × A with A ∈ F_a — rules out.

The hypothesis is the constant F_t-intensity, not "A is Poisson". By Watanabe's theorem the two are equivalent, but that equivalence is a remark on the page and not part of this theorem.

Why it earns its place: Pollaczek–Khinchin

§3.4 derives formulas from conservation equations. Applying the rate conservation principle of Chapter 1 to Y(t) = e^{iuW(t)} in a GI/GI/1/∞ queue gives Takács' formula

iu E[e^{iuW(0)}] = λ E⁰_A[e^{iuW(0−)}] (E[e^{iuσ_0}] − 1) + iu(1 − ρ) ,                (3.4.44)

an identity between a stationary expectation and a Palm expectation of the workload just before an arrival. One substitution turns it into a closed form — and that substitution is PASTA. When the arrivals are Poisson, E⁰_A[e^{iuW(0−)}] = E[e^{iuW(0)}], and

E[e^{iuW(0)}] = iu(1 − ρ) / ( iu − λ(Ψ_σ(u) − 1) ) ,                                   (3.4.45)

the Pollaczek–Khinchin characteristic function formula. The most quoted formula in single-server queueing theory is one application of this mission's goal theorem.

The rest of the chapter

§3.1 carries Little's formula to fluid queues. Lemma 3.1.1 is the set identity that turns the fluid workload into an integral against the arrival measure — the same two instants described from the server's side and from the arrivals' side.

§3.2 applies Campbell's formula to rare events. Lemma 3.2.1 gives a closed form, in a countable-state Markov chain, for the mean time to make an excursion to a rare set and return; its two expressions count the same cycle rate from the two ends. Theorem 3.2.1 generalizes Keilson's asymptotic equivalence to a stationary θ_t-compatible process, replacing cycles by thinnings of the entrance processes of two disjoint sets.

§3.5 applies the stochastic intensity integration formula to a superposition of on-off fluid sources. Lemma 3.5.1 identifies a conditional expectation with a Palm expectation through Papangelou's theorem — the mean workload while a source is idle equals the mean workload that source sees when it wakes. Lemma 3.5.2 measures the gap between the two Palm expectations of the workload taken with respect to a source's start process and its fluid process.

What this mission provides

Nothing here is on the platform or in Mathlib. The nearest platform item, queueing_general_littles_law, is Stidham's deterministic sample-path law; its own docstring disclaims probability, expectation, stationarity, ergodicity and FIFO. Baccelli's L = λW is the Palm identity for a stationary ergodic marked point process, derived from the inversion formula (1.2.25) — an identity between an expectation under P and a Palm expectation under P⁰_N, not a pathwise limit. Different framework, different hypotheses, and neither implies the other.

Mathlib has filtrations and adapted processes but no predictability in the form this chapter needs, and no stochastic intensity.

Formalization scope

  • PASTA carries both displays. (3.3.1) is an equality in [0, ∞] for every non-negative measurable f. (3.3.2) asserts that, P-almost surely, both averages converge in [0, ∞] to one common limit, so both limits exist. Predictability is measurability for the predictable σ-field P(F_t) of p.55. The concrete form Z(t,ω) = v(t, θ_t ω) of (1.8.1) is not used as the hypothesis, because for a general history it is strictly weaker. The hypothesis is the constant F_t-intensity, E[A(a,b] | F_a] = λ(b − a), and not "A is Poisson".
  • Takács (3.4.44) and Pollaczek–Khinchin (3.4.45) are stated for every real u, and for u ≠ 0 respectively. Their hypotheses are the page's: σ_n is independent of W(T_n−) under P⁰_A, E⁰_A[e^{iuσ_0}] = E[e^{iuσ_0}], P(W(0) = 0) = 1 − ρ, and ρ < 1. The workload is a measurable, flow-compatible solution of Lindley's equation. (3.4.45) adds PASTA's hypotheses for {W(t−)}, and it asserts that its denominator is non-zero.
  • Lemma 3.2.1 asserts both closed forms of E_α R. The chain is irreducible, F is non-empty, and hitting times are counted from time 0.
  • Theorem 3.2.1 asserts the equality in (3.2.43), the convergence to 1, and E⁰_{F_n(→A)}[τ(F_n)] · Λ_n → 1. Its hypotheses are the section's standing ones: P is flow-invariant, {X(t)} is flow-compatible, and A and every F_n are regular and disjoint.
  • Lemmas 3.5.1 and 3.5.2 are stated for the full on-off model of §3.5.3. The on-off point processes are independent, their on periods, off periods and fluid functions are i.i.d. and independent, P⁰_{A^i} is the Palm probability of the random measure A^i, and the workload is the stationary solution of the fluid-queue equation. Lemma 3.5.1 is an identity in [0, ∞]. Lemma 3.5.2 assumes that E⁰_{A^i}[W(0)] and the expectation defining C_i are finite.

A formalization that makes Palm probability an opaque measure with the formulas as axioms, or that weakens predictability to adaptedness, trivializes this mission or makes it false, and is out of scope.

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Elements of Queueing Theory III: Stationary Regimes of Stochastic RecurrencesTextbook

Stationary Regimes of Stochastic Recurrences

Background

Chapter 2 of Baccelli and Brémaud's Elements of Queueing Theory asks when a queue has a stationary regime. §§2.1–2.4 answer it for the single-server and multiserver queues by Loynes' monotone construction. §§2.5 and 2.11 answer it for the general object those constructions are instances of: a stochastic recurrence

W_{n+1} = h(W_n, ξ_n),

driven by a sequence {ξ_n} compatible with an ergodic shift θ. Two questions arise, and this mission is about both.

Exact sampling, and what "exact" means

§2.5.3 treats the finite-state case. An ergodic transition matrix on E = {1, …, r} has a stationary law π, and the classical way to sample it is to run the chain and wait. That gives a sample whose law converges to π and is never equal to it.

Coupling from the past (Propp and Wilson, 1996) does better. Run one chain from every state, all sharing a single array {ξ_k(i)} of i.i.d. uniforms indexed by time and current state, started further and further in the past. Once two chains meet they stay together, so eventually all r coalesce before time 0 — and Theorem 2.5.1 says the common value they reach has the distribution π exactly. Theorem 2.5.2 makes it practical: if the updating function preserves a partial order with a least and a greatest state, and a single uniform sequence drives every chain, the two extremal chains funnel all the others and their coalescence suffices.

Neither theorem is a statement about a program. Each says that a random variable is almost surely finite, and that another has a distribution equal to π.

Renovating events: sufficient, and then necessary

§2.5.4 treats the general case, through Borovkov's idea. An event A_n is renovating of length m when, on it, W_{n+m} = Φ(ξ_n, …, ξ_{n+m-1}) — the sequence's value m steps ahead forgets where it came from. Theorem 2.5.3 turns a condition on how often renovating events occur into the existence of a finite stationary solution Z with Z ∘ θ = h(Z, ξ), and into strong backwards coupling: W_n ∘ θ^{-n} is not merely convergent to Z but equal to it after a finite random index.

Corollary 2.5.1 makes the limit independent of the initial condition — one stationary regime, reached from every starting point. Theorem 2.5.4 is the converse: for ℝ₊^K-valued recurrences with a constant initial condition, strong backwards coupling produces renovating events. So the method characterises stability rather than merely detecting it.

The saturation rule

§2.11 treats the multidimensional case, where the state is a vector and the natural models are monotone and homogeneous. Theorem 2.11.1, due to Crandall and Tartar, is the key that unlocks it: under homogeneity, monotone and non-expansive are the same property. That is what puts these models within reach of Kingman's subadditive ergodic theorem, and Theorem 2.11.2 collects the payoff — asymptotic growth rates γ̄ and γ_ exist, both almost surely and in L¹, and do not depend on the initial condition.

The goal

Queueing folklore has a rule of thumb for the stability of an open network: saturate the queues fed by the external stream, measure the departure intensity µ of the saturated system, and declare the network stable when λ < µ. The book is careful that this saturation rule "does not hold for all systems".

Theorem 2.11.3 (p.166), "the main result on the stability region", proves it for Monotone-Homogeneous-Separable networks:

If lim Z_{[-n,0]} → ∞ a.s., then λ γ(0) ≥ 1.    If λ γ(0) > 1, then lim Z_{[-n,0]} → ∞ a.s.

Here γ(c) is the growth rate of the network fed by the scaled process cN, so c = 0 places every arrival at the origin: γ(0) is exactly the saturated system's rate, and µ = γ(0)⁻¹.

Two implications, with a gap between ≥ 1 and > 1 that the book leaves open — as it leaves open the critical case ρ = 1 of Loynes' theorem. Closing it would assert more than is proved.

What this mission provides

Nothing here is on the platform or in Mathlib. There is no coupling from the past, no theory of renovating events, and no Crandall–Tartar theorem. Order/Hom/* has monotone maps and Topology/MetricSpace/* has LipschitzWith 1, which is the right ambient notion for non-expansiveness in the sup-norm, but the equivalence between them under homogeneity is absent.

Formalization scope

  • The standing assumptions of §2.5.1 (p.104) are part of every §2.5.4 statement: (P⁰, θ) is ergodic and {ξ_n} is compatible with θ. The relation Z ∘ θ = h(Z, ξ) holds P⁰-a.s.
  • Theorem 2.5.4 is stated for {W_n^{[C]}}, the sequence its proof on p.119 builds the renovating events for. The page prints {W_n^{[0]}} in the conclusion, and that version is false. Corollary 2.5.1 uses the renovating condition of (2.5.14), W_{n+m} = Φ(ξ_n, …, ξ_{n+m-1}), where the page prints W_n.
  • Theorem 2.11.2 carries all four limits, a.s. and in expectation, for every integrable ℝ^K-valued random initial condition Y, under the book's linear lower bound E[X_n^{[0]}] > −Cn.
  • The goal is stated on the Palm space of a stationary ergodic marked point process: T_0 = 0, T_n ∘ θ = T_{n+1} − T_1, ξ_n ∘ θ = ξ_{n+1}, E⁰τ_n = λ^{-1}, E⁰Z_n < ∞. The map X satisfies (2.11.16) (it depends only on the points and marks in the index window) and the four framework assumptions for every point process. γ(0) is the a.s. limit of Z_{[-n,-1]}(0·N)/n. Dropping the marks would reduce the theorem to deterministic service, and dropping the link between the points and θ makes the second implication false. Neither is done.
  • Stating only one of the goal's two implications, or collapsing them into an equivalence, would be a different theorem. Both implications are stated, with the gap between ≥ 1 and > 1 left open.
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Elements of Queueing Theory II: The Loynes Stability Theorem and CouplingTextbook

The Loynes Stability Theorem and Coupling

Background

Chapter 1 of Baccelli and Brémaud's Elements of Queueing Theory builds a calculus for stationary queues. Chapter 2 asks the prior question: when is there a stationary queue at all?

The G/G/1/∞ queue is one server at unit rate, infinite waiting room, fed by a stationary marked point process {(T_n, σ_n)} — arrival epochs and required service times. Its workload W(t), the service still owed by the server, obeys Lindley's equation between arrivals:

W(t) = (W(T_n−) + σ_n − (t − T_n))⁺,    t ∈ [T_n, T_{n+1}).                          (2.1.6)

Nothing in that equation says a solution exists on the whole line, let alone a stationary one. The answer is a sharp criterion in the traffic intensity ρ = λE⁰_A[σ_0].

The goal

Theorem 2.1.1 (p.80), which the book calls "the fundamental result of stability". Under ρ < 1 there is a unique finite workload process on all of ℝ, compatible with the flow, and it is given explicitly by the Loynes supremum

W(0) = sup_{n ≤ 0} ( T_n + Σ_{i=n}^{0} σ_i )⁺ ,                                      (2.1.12)

with W(T_n−) = 0 for infinitely many negative and infinitely many positive n (2.1.13). If ρ > 1 there is no finite stationary workload process at all.

Each half earns its place. The supremum is what "the Loynes construction" means: look back from the origin, take the work brought by customers n, …, 0 less the time −T_n since elapsed, and maximise over how far back you look. The ρ > 1 half is what turns ρ < 1 from a sufficient condition into a criterion. The critical case ρ = 1 is an explicit non-result in the book — there "may or may not" be a stationary workload — and is deliberately absent from the statement.

The route, and what it produces on the way

§2.2 proves the theorem by Loynes' monotone scheme on the Palm space, and two of its steps are worth stating in their own right.

Lemma 2.2.1 (p.87) is the uniqueness engine: a non-negative, a.s. finite Z with Z − Z∘θ ∈ L¹(P⁰) has E⁰[Z − Z∘θ] = 0. Applied to the difference of two stationary solutions, it forces that difference to be invariant, and ergodicity then forces it to be zero.

Theorem 2.2.1 (p.90) runs the argument backwards. Its section is titled "Queueing Proof of the Ergodic Theorem", and it is exactly that: the queueing construction yields the pointwise ergodic theorem, in the ratio form

lim_n ( Σ_{i=0}^n σ∘θ^{-i} ) / ( Σ_{i=0}^n τ∘θ^{-i} ) = E⁰[σ]/E⁰[τ],    P⁰-a.s.

Mathlib has the mean (von Neumann) ergodic theorem and no pointwise one, so this is absent substrate rather than a restatement.

Three extensions

The multiserver queue (§2.3). With s servers and the least-loaded-server rule, the state is the ordered workload vector obeying the Kiefer–Wolfowitz recurrence, and the criterion becomes E⁰[σ] < s E⁰[τ] (Theorem 2.3.1, p.93). Here uniqueness fails: p.94 exhibits a two-point space with a whole interval of stationary solutions. What survives is that the solution set is bracketed — M_∞ is minimal, and V^∞_∞ is the largest finite solution (Theorem 2.3.2, p.95).

Coupling (§2.4). Theorem 2.4.1 (p.99) is what "reaches the stationary regime" means: if a sequence couples with a θ-compatible one, then the law of its whole shifted trajectory converges in variation to the stationary trajectory's. The proof is one inequality, |P̃_{X,k} − P̃_{Z,k}| ≤ P(N > k), and the finiteness of the coupling time.

The fluid queue (§2.7). Theorem 2.7.1 (p.131) replaces customers by two θ_t-compatible random measures, the arrivals A and the service capacity C, and recovers the Loynes supremum W(t) = sup_{u ≤ t}(A_{u,t} − C_{u,t}) under λ < µ — as the minimal solution, the book claiming no uniqueness here.

Formalization scope

  • ρ = λE⁰_A[σ_0] takes values in [0, ∞], so an input with E⁰_A[σ_0] = ∞ has ρ = ∞ and falls under the non-existence half rather than being read as ρ = 0.
  • The explicit formulas are carried: the Loynes supremum (2.1.12) with the boundedness of its set as a conclusion, the construction points (2.1.13), the ratio limit E⁰[σ]/E⁰[τ] of Theorem 2.2.1, the threshold s E⁰[τ] of Theorem 2.3.1, and the fluid supremum (2.7.7).
  • Identities between random variables hold almost surely, as in the book: the workload equations, (2.1.12)–(2.1.13), (2.7.7), and the solutions of (2.3.2). A statement "for every sample point" would be false, because on a null invariant set of sample paths no finite solution exists.
  • Uniqueness in Theorem 2.1.1 is among measurable, θ_t-compatible workload processes; maximality in Theorem 2.3.2 is among measurable finite solutions; the coupling time of Theorem 2.4.1 is a random variable. A formalization that dropped the explicit supremum, or the ρ > 1 half, would trivialize the goal and is ruled out.

What this mission provides

None of it is on the platform or in Mathlib. The nearest platform item, single_server_queueing_convergence_of_subcritical, presupposes a stationary workload and proves two-time finite-dimensional convergence to it; Theorem 2.1.1 constructs that workload, proves it unique, gives it in closed form, and adds the non-existence half. Different conclusion, different generality, different Mathlib revision.

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Elements of Queueing Theory Ib: Ergodicity and Stochastic IntensityTextbook

Ergodicity and Stochastic Intensity

Background

Chapter 1 of Baccelli and Brémaud's Elements of Queueing Theory has two halves. The first builds Palm calculus from the Matthes definition of P⁰_N and reaches the Swiss army formula. This mission is the second: §§1.6, 1.8 and 1.9, which supply the two things the rest of the book runs on.

Ergodic theory, quoted

§1.6 states, in its own words, "the ergodic theory results to be used later in this book". Five of them, and the book proves none: Birkhoff's pointwise ergodic theorem in discrete (Theorem 1.6.1) and continuous time (Theorem 1.6.4), Kingman's sub-additive ergodic theorem (Theorem 1.6.2), and the extremal characterizations of ergodicity in both settings (Theorems 1.6.3 and 1.6.5) — ergodicity is exactly the impossibility of splitting an invariant probability into two distinct ones.

They are quoted, but they are not decoration. Kingman's theorem is what produces the asymptotic growth rates of Theorem 2.11.2 and the constant γ(c) on which the saturation rule rests. Birkhoff's theorem is what makes the time average in PASTA's (3.3.2) a well-defined object, and what the fluid Loynes theorem invokes for lim_{u→−∞}(A_{u,0} − C_{u,0}) = −∞.

None of the three analytic ones exists in Mathlib. Analysis/InnerProductSpace/MeanErgodic is the mean (von Neumann, L²) theorem, not almost-everywhere convergence, and there is no sub-additive ergodic theorem at all. The platform has neither.

Predictability, and why PASTA can be stated

§1.8 introduces the stochastic intensity: a point process N admits the (P, F_t)-intensity {λ(t)} when E[N(a,b] 1_A] = E[(∫_a^b λ(t)dt) 1_A] for A ∈ F_a. Around it sits the notion of a predictable process — one measurable with respect to the strict past.

Theorem 1.8.1 is the structural fact that makes predictability usable. For the internal history of a marked point process, every predictable process has the concrete form

Z(t, ω) = v(t, θ_t ω),    v(t, ·) F_{0−}-measurable.                                   (1.8.1)

That is why mission IV can take this form as PASTA's hypothesis rather than constructing a predictable σ-field: Theorem 1.8.1 says nothing is lost.

The goal

Theorem 1.8.2 (p.61), §1.8.4, Watanabe's characterization of Poisson processes. For a history F_t = F_t^N ∨ G and a G-measurable, locally integrable {λ(t)}, if N admits the F_t-intensity {λ(t)} then N is a G-conditional Poisson process:

E[ e^{iuN(a,b]} | G ∨ F^N_a ] = exp{ (e^{iu} − 1) ∫_a^b λ(t) dt } .                    (1.8.12)

A stochastic intensity that carries no information beyond G forces the process to be Poisson conditionally on G, with the compensator as the parameter — and the conditional characteristic function is the exact Poisson one, not an approximation. With G trivial and λ constant this is the ordinary Poisson process, which is the equivalence Remark 3.3.1 of Chapter 3 invokes to explain the name PASTA. The book: "This result plays a role in queueing theory, especially for proving that some streams in a queueing network are or are not Poissonian."

Palm probability meets stochastic intensity

§1.9 asks whether the stochastic intensity is the same under P and under P⁰_N — whether the two probabilities describe the same dynamics. Theorem 1.9.1 says yes, on ℝ₊: the same process {λ(t)} serves both.

Theorem 1.9.2 is Papangelou's theorem, and it is the deepest statement of the section: N admits a stochastic intensity if and only if P⁰_N ≪ P on F_{0−}, and then λ(t) = (μ ∘ θ_t)λ with μ the Radon–Nikodým derivative. A dynamic property and a static one turn out to be the same thing.

Theorem 1.9.3 is Mecke's characterization: N is Poisson exactly when P ≡ P⁰_N on F_{0−}. The view from a point of the process and the view from a deterministic instant agree on the strict past precisely when the process has no memory. It follows in one line from the two theorems before it.

What this mission provides

Four of the five missions in this series import the Chapter 1 substrate; this one adds the two pieces they need from its second half — ergodic theory and the stochastic intensity. Nothing here is on the platform, and Mathlib has filtrations and adapted processes but no predictability in this form, no stochastic intensity, no pointwise ergodic theorem and no Kingman.

Formalization scope

Every result is stated in the book's strength, with the book's standing definitions as binders. A discrete flow is a bijective, measurable, P⁰-preserving map (p.46); a continuous flow is jointly measurable in (t, ω) (p.3, clause (a)). A history compatible with the flow satisfies θ_t F_s = F_{s−t} (p.57), and an F_t-intensity is a non-negative, measurable, locally integrable, adapted process (p.58). The limits of Theorems 1.6.1, 1.6.2 and 1.6.4 are asserted to exist; Kingman's constant h̄ lies in ℝ ∪ {−∞} and is identified with inf_n (1/n) E⁰[h_n], the means being extended reals so that E⁰[h_n] = −∞ is not read as 0. Theorems 1.6.3, 1.6.5, 1.9.2 and 1.9.3 are equivalences, and Theorem 1.9.2 carries the closed form λ(t) = (μ ∘ θ_t)λ with μ = dP⁰_N/dP on F_{0−}. The goal's conclusion is the exact conditional characteristic function (1.8.12); a formalization that only asserted some conditional Poisson law, or conditioned on G alone, would not be this theorem.

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Elements of Queueing Theory I: The Swiss Army Formula of Palm CalculusTextbook

The Swiss Army Formula of Palm Calculus

Background

Chapter 1 of Baccelli and Brémaud's Elements of Queueing Theory builds the calculus that the rest of the book runs on. Its subject is the relation between two ways of looking at the same stationary system: from a clock fixed in time, and from a customer arriving into it. The two are not the same — the interval a random instant falls into is longer than a typical interval, a fact every queueing student meets as the inspection paradox — and the object that makes the difference precise is the Palm probability P⁰_N.

The chapter defines P⁰_N by the Matthes definition in terms of counting,

λ t P⁰_N(A) = E[ Σ_{n ∈ ℤ} 1_A(θ_{T_n}) 1_{(0,t]}(T_n) ],                          (1.2.1)

and everything else is a theorem about it. That ordering is deliberate here too: P⁰_N is carried in the formalization as a predicate satisfying (1.2.1), not as a measure constructed to make Mecke's formula true. If it were the latter, Mecke's formula would be a definition and the inversion formula and the goal theorem would inherit that emptiness.

From (1.2.1) the chapter derives, in order: that P⁰_N is invariant under the point shift (1.2.16); Mecke's formula (1.2.17), which the literature also knows as the generalized Campbell formula; the inversion formula of Ryll-Nardzewski and Slivnyak (1.2.25), which runs back from P⁰_N to P; the mean-value formulas (1.3.2)–(1.3.3); the Neveu exchange formula (1.3.4), which relates two point processes stationary for the same flow; and the Miyazawa rate conservation principle (1.3.10), which balances the drift of a process between its jumps against the rate at which it jumps.

The goal

§1.3.7 then collects all of them into one identity. Its name is the book's own:

Depending on which blade is selected, a Swiss army knife transforms itself into various useful tools. The formula obtained in this subsection is called the Swiss army formula of Palm calculus because it contains the main formulas of this theory, as well as some new ones.

Theorem 1.3.1 (p.29). For arrivals {T_n} with counting measure A and intensity λ_A, departures {τ_n} with counting measure D — not assumed ordered — sojourn times W_n = τ_n − T_n ≥ 0 forming a sequence of marks of A, the number in system {X(t)} with X(b) − X(a) = A((a,b]) − D((a,b]), a non-decreasing corlol integrator {B(t)} and a non-negative process {Z(t)}, all compatible with a measurable flow under which P is invariant:

λ_A E⁰_A [ ∫_(0,W_0] Z(s) dB(s) ] = (1/t) E [ ∫_(0,t] X(s−) Z(s) dB(s) ].              (1.3.28)

Selecting the blade Z ≡ 1, B(t) = t turns it into λ_A E⁰_A[W_0] = E[X(0)] — Little's law, here in its full stationary-ergodic form rather than as a deterministic sample-path identity. Other choices give the inversion formula, the Miyazawa conservation principle and the rate conservation law.

The local meaning of P⁰_N

One milestone stands slightly apart. Theorem 1.5.1 (p.45) is what licenses the whole reading of P⁰_N as "what an arriving customer sees":

lim_{t→0} sup_{A ∈ F} | P⁰_N(A) − P(θ_{T_1} ∈ A | T_1 ≤ t) | = 0.                       (1.5.3)

The supremum is inside the limit. The convergence is uniform over every measurable event, which is what Dobrushin's estimate of §1.5.1 buys and what a pointwise limit would not give.

What this mission provides

Nothing in this chapter exists on the platform or in Mathlib: not stationary marked point processes, not Palm probability, not the Campbell measure. Four of the five missions in this series import the vocabulary built here, and the two definition items — the substrate of §§1.1–1.2 and the setting of §1.3.7 — are as much of the deliverable as the theorems are.

Formalization scope

  • The flow {θ_t} is a one-parameter group with (t, ω) ↦ θ_t ω jointly measurable (p.5 (a)); a point process is its strictly increasing points {T_n}_{n ∈ ℤ} with T_0 ≤ 0 < T_1, infinitely many on each side (Hypothesis 1.1.1), with finite non-null intensity λ = E[N((0,1])].
  • P⁰_N is characterized by (1.2.1) for every t > 0, which determines it uniquely; nothing is axiomatized. A formalization that introduced P⁰_N as any measure satisfying Mecke's formula would make the milestones and the goal trivial and is ruled out.
  • Every "for all non-negative measurable" formula (Mecke, inversion, mean-value, Neveu, Wald, the goal) is stated in [0, ∞] with lower Lebesgue integrals, for all such functions, not only bounded or integrable ones.
  • Three hypotheses the book uses without listing them are explicit: the Swiss army formula assumes the integrator {B(t)} is θ_t-compatible (the proof uses it, and without it the identity fails); it is stated for t > 0, the only values at which 1/t and (0, t] give it content; and the Miyazawa principle assumes Y'(0) ∈ L¹(P), which its E[Y'(0)] presupposes.
  • Theorem 1.5.1 keeps the supremum over all events inside the limit (one δ for every A).
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