Scenario Reduction Algorithms in Stochastic Programming I: Fast Forward Selection Realizes the Forward Selection PrincipleResearch Paper
Why reduce scenarios
Multistage and two-stage stochastic programs are solved numerically on a discrete probability distribution: a finite set of scenarios with probabilities . The size of the resulting optimization problem grows with , and scenario sets produced by sampling or by historical data are often far too large to be solved directly. Scenario reduction replaces the original distribution by one supported on a small subset of the scenarios, chosen so that the optimal value and solutions of the stochastic program change as little as possible.
Stability theory for stochastic programs (Rachev and Römisch, 2002) shows that this change is controlled by a probability distance of Fortet–Mourier type, which for discrete measures is bounded by the value of a transportation problem. Dupačová, Gröwe-Kuska and Römisch (2003) turned this into a combinatorial problem and proposed greedy backward and forward heuristics. Heitsch and Römisch (2003) gave faster versions of both heuristics; the forward version, fast forward selection, is the subject of this mission. Implementations of these reduction heuristics are distributed with the GAMS modelling system (SCENRED) and are used in energy and finance applications of stochastic programming.
Setting
Let be a finite-dimensional real vector space with a norm , let , and let be continuous and nondecreasing with . The cost between two points of is
It is nonnegative, symmetric, and zero on the diagonal.
The original distribution is with and . Deleting the scenarios in a set and assigning new weights , , to the kept ones gives . The distance between and is the optimal value of the transportation problem
The reduction cost of deleting is
and the optimal reduction problem (8) minimizes over all with , where is the number of scenarios to keep.
Forward selection builds the kept set greedily. With and , it chooses
Fast forward selection (Algorithm 2.4) computes the same choices through an updated cost matrix: , , , and .
Formalization targets
Goal: Theorem 2.5
For and every run of Algorithm 2.4, with any tie-breaking in the arg min,
Milestones
- Theorem 2.1 (redistribution). For with at least one kept scenario, , and the minimum is attained at for every choice of nearest kept scenarios .
- Eq. (10). , so (8) with is problem (10).
- Eq. (12). The sum of the smallest single-deletion costs , taken in the greedy order (11), is at most for every with .
- Optimality condition (p. 191). If each has a nearest other scenario outside , then solves (8).
- Eq. (17), unrolled recursion. For any index sequence, for .
- Eq. (17), conclusion. For any index sequence, for .
Significance
Theorem 2.5 certifies that the cheap update of Algorithm 2.4 (one pairwise minimum per matrix entry and step) produces exactly the greedy forward selection defined through the reduction costs, and that the running objective is the reduction cost of the scenarios deleted so far. Combined with Theorem 2.1, is the optimal transportation distance between and the best measure on the kept scenarios, which is the quantity practitioners monitor to decide how many scenarios to keep. The lower bound (12) and the optimality condition give a posteriori quality certificates for any reduced set.
All results of this mission are proved in the paper or in the works it cites (Dupačová et al., 2003); none is open. To the best of a platform search, none has been machine-checked. The mission provides a verified specification of a widely deployed algorithm, a formal link between a combinatorial set-covering objective and a finite transportation problem, and definitions (reduction cost, transportation plans with a partially free target marginal, greedy runs with arbitrary tie-breaking) reusable by the regular-tree missions of this series and by later scenario-tree construction papers.
Difficulty
The mathematics is elementary; the difficulty is bookkeeping. The recursion for refers to the previous step's column , which itself was updated, so unrolling it to a minimum over is an induction on in which the index sets , the 1-based step counter and the complement structure all move together. The natural first attempt, identifying with the minimum over the complement of , is off by one step: the correct set is the complement of , which contains itself. For Theorem 2.1 the lower bound requires using that for kept scenarios and that every plan ships all of somewhere outside ; the attainment part requires constructing the plan explicitly from the choice , including scenarios for which several kept scenarios are equally near.
Formalization scope
- Scenarios are
ω : Fin N → EwithEa finite-dimensional real normed space; the paper's closed set plays no role beyond containing the scenarios and is omitted. Scenarios need not be distinct. - is a function
ℝ → ℝwith the paper's assumptions imposed on (IsGrowthFunction); every theorem carries them, together with and . - The functions , and the stochastic program (1)–(2) that motivate appear in no statement.
- is the paper's finite transportation problem (p. 188), not the Kantorovich functional on measures. Weights and plans are indexed by all of with entries at deleted indices fixed to .
- requires a proof that the complement of is nonempty; minima are
Finset.inf', never a real infimum with a default value. - Algorithm 2.4 is a relation on sequences
u : ℕ → Fin Nwith 1-based steps. is the printed recursion, extended to all indices; runs are any sequences satisfying the arg-min conditions, so every tie-breaking rule is covered. - The paper's standing restriction is relaxed to in Theorem 2.5; the statement remains true at .
- A trivializing formalization is ruled out: defining or directly as the minimum over the selected set or as would make Theorem 2.5 hold by definition, and proving it for one fixed tie-breaking rule would prove less than the paper; neither is done.
- Proofs of the milestones, alternative proofs of Theorem 2.1 via LP duality, and a verified executable implementation of Algorithm 2.4 are all welcome.
Selected references
- H. Heitsch, W. Römisch, Scenario Reduction Algorithms in Stochastic Programming, Computational Optimization and Applications 24 (2003), 187–206. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1021805924152
- J. Dupačová, N. Gröwe-Kuska, W. Römisch, Scenario reduction in stochastic programming: an approach using probability metrics, Mathematical Programming 95 (2003), 493–511. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10107-002-0331-0
- S. T. Rachev, W. Römisch, Quantitative stability in stochastic programming: the method of probability metrics, Mathematics of Operations Research 27 (2002), 792–818. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.27.4.792.304