The Distributionally Robust Chance-Constrained Vehicle Routing Problem V: Worst-Case Value-at-Risk over Covariance Ambiguity Sets as a Quadratically Constrained ProgramResearch Paper
Motivation
In the capacitated vehicle routing problem (CVRP) a fleet of vehicles of capacity leaves a depot and serves customers; every customer is visited once, and the load of each route must not exceed . In practice customer demands are uncertain at planning time. The chance-constrained CVRP asks that each route respect the capacity with probability at least , but this presupposes a known demand distribution, which is rarely available. Ghosal and Wiesemann (Oper. Res. 68(3), 2020) require the chance constraints to hold for every distribution in an ambiguity set built from the information that can actually be estimated: support, means and dispersion bounds.
Their branch-and-cut method separates rounded capacity inequalities whose right-hand side is the worst-case value-at-risk of the total demand of a customer set . This quantity is evaluated thousands of times during the search, so it matters whether it has a closed form or a small convex reformulation. This mission concerns the paper's covariance ambiguity sets (§5.2), which bound the whole covariance matrix of the demands and can therefore express that demands of nearby customers are correlated, as happens with geographically clustered demand. The covariance bound can be derived from data, for example analytically through McDiarmid's inequality (Delage and Ye, 2010) or by bootstrapping.
Setting
Customers are indexed by and their random demand vector is . Fix a box with , a mean vector in the interior of , and a symmetric positive definite matrix . The covariance ambiguity set is
where is the set of all probability distributions on and means that is positive semidefinite.
For a distribution and a real random variable , the value-at-risk at level , , is . For a customer set , the worst-case value-at-risk is . A route serving satisfies the chance constraint for every exactly when this number is at most .
Two componentwise bounds appear in the answer:
A route set is an ordered partition of the customers into nonempty ordered routes. It is feasible in the distributionally robust problem RVRP() if every route satisfies the chance constraint for every , and feasible in a deterministic instance with capacity and demands if every route's total demand is at most .
Formalization targets
Goal: Theorem 7
For every customer set ,
The right-hand side maximizes an affine function over the intersection of an ellipsoid and a box.
Milestone: Corollary 4 (corrected)
For a diagonal bound , program (17) collapses to a search over one parameter with :
over the for which the first bracket is nonnegative and the point of (17) that induces respects (see Formalization scope).
Milestone: Theorem 6
For some instance with the ambiguity set (16), no deterministic CVRP instance on the same customers and fleet has the same set of feasible route sets.
Significance
Theorem 7 makes the worst-case value-at-risk over (16) computable in polynomial time as a convex quadratically constrained program. With it, the rounded capacity inequalities of the two-index vehicle flow formulation can be separated for covariance information. Theorem 2 of the same paper shows that the resulting demand estimator is subadditive, so this formulation is exact. Corollary 4 gives a closed form for the diagonal case, which the paper uses to evaluate the estimator in time linear in after sorting. Theorem 6 explains why the paper needs this machinery: the robust feasible region cannot be reproduced by any deterministic demand vector and capacity.
The results are proved in the paper's online supplement. No part of them is formalized anywhere to our knowledge; the platform has no worst-case value-at-risk and no moment-based ambiguity set. A complete development would give machine-checked worst-case VaR bounds over moment sets with second-order information. These are used well beyond routing, in distributionally robust portfolio and inventory models.
Difficulty
The supremum ranges over an infinite-dimensional set of distributions, while (17) ranges over vectors. The inequality "" requires, for every feasible of (17), a sequence of distributions in (16) whose value-at-risk approaches . The value-at-risk is a lower quantile, so a distribution placing mass exactly on a high point does not attain the value: the construction has to be a limit. The inequality "" is harder. It must rule out every distribution, not only two-point ones, and a bound through the one-dimensional Chebyshev–Cantelli inequality for alone ignores the box: it yields , which is too large whenever the support bounds bind. The interaction between the Loewner constraint and the componentwise support bounds, which produces the unusual bound , is where the work lies. For Theorem 6 the difficulty is to exhibit the instance and to evaluate enough chance constraints exactly.
Formalization scope
Customers are Fin n (0-based) and demand vectors are Fin n → ℝ. Distributions are measures on Fin n → ℝ. The set (16) is covarianceSet qlo qhi μ Sig: a probability measure with P (Set.Icc qlo qhi) = 1, coordinate means μ, and Sig - M positive semidefinite, where M is the matrix of integrals . The covariance bound is called Sig because Σ is Lean syntax. The side conditions , , (Sig.PosDef) and are hypotheses of every theorem. The value-at-risk is the published MultistageStochastic.valueAtRisk P Y (1 - ε). The worst-case value-at-risk is a real sSup over the image of the set. That image is nonempty (the Dirac measure at lies in (16)) and bounded (the box), so the supremum is genuine. "The optimal objective value" of a maximization is stated as a supremum; attainment is not part of any claim. is Mathlib's matrix inverse.
The paper states Theorem 7 and Corollary 4 with "-VaR" without a level; the level , used in the sentence introducing Theorem 7 and everywhere else, is read in. Corollary 4 as printed is false. It maximizes over every with a nonnegative bracket. For , every large then gives the value , which can exceed and hence every value-at-risk. The formal statement adds the condition that makes each a feasible point of (17): for , where is the first bracket. With this condition the statement is the diagonal case of Theorem 7.
A theorem about the Lean set is trivial if the set is empty or the supremum is a junk value. Neither happens here, and replacing the Loewner constraint by a scalar variance bound on would state a different theorem. The dual second-order cone program printed after Theorem 7 is not a target: as printed it has the all-ones vector where Lagrangian duality gives , and it has no multiplier for .
Needed infrastructure: quantiles of pushforward measures, the Loewner order on moment matrices, and finite-support (two-point) distributions. The value-at-risk lemmas and the moment-matrix lemmas are reusable beyond this mission, and contributions of either kind are welcome. Theorem 6 needs only the route-set layer defined here and one explicit instance.
Selected references
- S. Ghosal and W. Wiesemann, The Distributionally Robust Chance-Constrained Vehicle Routing Problem, Operations Research 68(3):716–732, 2020. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.2019.1924
- E. Delage and Y. Ye, Distributionally Robust Optimization Under Moment Uncertainty with Application to Data-Driven Problems, Operations Research 58(3):595–612, 2010. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.1090.0741
- S. Boyd and L. Vandenberghe, Convex Optimization, Cambridge University Press, 2004. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511804441
- G. Laporte, Y. Nobert and M. Desrochers, Optimal Routing under Capacity and Distance Restrictions, Operations Research 33(5):1050–1073, 1985. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.33.5.1050