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Operations Research

1,660 missions · 816 completed

The discipline of applying mathematical analysis to complex decision problems in operations: allocating scarce resources, scheduling, routing, inventory, and the design of service and production systems. Drawing on mathematical programming, stochastic modeling, queueing, simulation, and game-theoretic reasoning, it seeks policies that perform provably well in systems shaped by constraints, congestion, and uncertainty.

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Linear OptimizationMachine LearningOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Strong Mixed-Integer Programming Formulations for Trained Neural Networks 2: Under Strict Activity Every Inequality of the Exponential Family (6b) Is Facet-DefiningResearch Paper

Motivation

Trained neural networks are increasingly embedded inside optimization models: to verify that a classifier is robust to small input perturbations, to optimize over a learned surrogate of an expensive system, or to choose decisions whose outcome is predicted by a network. When the network uses rectified linear units (ReLU), each neuron y=max⁡{0, w⋅x+b}y=\max\{0,\,w\cdot x+b\}y=max{0,w⋅x+b} is piecewise linear, and the whole network can be written exactly as a mixed-integer program (MIP) with one binary variable per neuron. How fast a branch-and-bound solver closes such a model depends on how tight the linear-programming relaxation of each neuron's formulation is.

Anderson, Huchette, Tjandraatmadja and Vielma (arXiv:1811.08359v2, the IPCO 2019 extended abstract) gave a formulation (6) of a single ReLU neuron over a box that uses only the original variables and one binary variable, and is ideal: its LP relaxation has integral extreme points (Proposition 1, p. 6). The price is an exponential family of inequalities (6b), one for every subset III of the support of www. The present mission formalizes their Proposition 2: each of these inequalities is facet-defining, so no member of the family can be dropped without weakening the relaxation. A longer journal version of the work, with different numbering, appeared later (arXiv:1811.01988); this mission follows the extended abstract.

Setting

Fix η∈N\eta\in\mathbb Nη∈N, a weight vector w∈Rηw\in\mathbb R^\etaw∈Rη, a bias b∈Rb\in\mathbb Rb∈R, and bounds L,U∈RηL,U\in\mathbb R^\etaL,U∈Rη with Li<UiL_i<U_iLi​<Ui​ for every iii (§1.3, p. 4). Write f(x)=w⋅x+bf(x)=w\cdot x+bf(x)=w⋅x+b and [L,U]={x:L≤x≤U}[L,U]=\{x : L\le x\le U\}[L,U]={x:L≤x≤U}. The sign-adjusted bounds are

L˘i={Liwi≥0Uiwi<0,U˘i={Uiwi≥0Liwi<0,\breve L_i=\begin{cases}L_i & w_i\ge 0\\ U_i & w_i<0\end{cases},\qquad \breve U_i=\begin{cases}U_i & w_i\ge 0\\ L_i & w_i<0\end{cases},L˘i​={Li​Ui​​wi​≥0wi​<0​,U˘i​={Ui​Li​​wi​≥0wi​<0​,

so that M+(f)=w⋅U˘+bM^+(f)=w\cdot\breve U+bM+(f)=w⋅U˘+b and M−(f)=w⋅L˘+bM^-(f)=w\cdot\breve L+bM−(f)=w⋅L˘+b are the maximum and minimum of fff over [L,U][L,U][L,U]. The support is supp⁡(w)={i:wi≠0}\operatorname{supp}(w)=\{i : w_i\neq 0\}supp(w)={i:wi​=0}. Strict activity means M−(f)<0<M+(f)M^-(f)<0<M^+(f)M−(f)<0<M+(f): the neuron is neither always off nor always on over the box. The paper assumes it throughout (§1.3).

Formulation (6) (p. 6) consists of the points (x,y,z)(x,y,z)(x,y,z) with

y≥w⋅x+b,(6a)y≤∑i∈Iwi(xi−L˘i(1−z))+(b+∑i∉IwiU˘i)z∀I⊆supp⁡(w),(6b)(x,y,z)∈[L,U]×R≥0×{0,1}.(6c)\begin{aligned} &y\ge w\cdot x+b, &&\text{(6a)}\\ &y\le\sum_{i\in I}w_i\bigl(x_i-\breve L_i(1-z)\bigr)+\Bigl(b+\sum_{i\notin I}w_i\breve U_i\Bigr)z\quad\forall I\subseteq\operatorname{supp}(w), &&\text{(6b)}\\ &(x,y,z)\in[L,U]\times\mathbb R_{\ge0}\times\{0,1\}. &&\text{(6c)} \end{aligned}​y≥w⋅x+b,y≤i∈I∑​wi​(xi​−L˘i​(1−z))+(b+i∈/I∑​wi​U˘i​)z∀I⊆supp(w),(x,y,z)∈[L,U]×R≥0​×{0,1}.​​(6a)(6b)(6c)​

In Lean, form6 w b L U is this set, and relax6 w b L U is its LP relaxation (0≤z≤10\le z\le10≤z≤1 in place of z∈{0,1}z\in\{0,1\}z∈{0,1}). The right-hand side of (6b) for the subset III is rhs6b w b L U I x z.

An inequality g≤0g\le0g≤0 is facet-defining for a set PPP when it holds on PPP, its face F=P∩{g=0}F=P\cap\{g=0\}F=P∩{g=0} is nonempty, and dim⁡F=dim⁡P−1\dim F=\dim P-1dimF=dimP−1, the dimension of a set being that of its affine hull. The paper uses this standard notion without defining it.

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 2 (p. 6)

Under L<UL<UL<U and strict activity, for every I⊆supp⁡(w)I\subseteq\operatorname{supp}(w)I⊆supp(w), the inequality (6b) for III is facet-defining for

P=conv⁡{(x,y,z):(x,y,z) satisfies (6a)–(6c)}.P=\operatorname{conv}\{(x,y,z) : (x,y,z)\text{ satisfies (6a)–(6c)}\}.P=conv{(x,y,z):(x,y,z) satisfies (6a)–(6c)}.

The page states the result as "Each inequality in (6b) is facet-defining", and adds right after the proof line: "We require the assumption of strict activity above, as introduced in Section 1.3."

Milestones (App. A.2, p. 15)

  1. For some ε>0\varepsilon>0ε>0, the η+2\eta+2η+2 points p0=(L˘,0,0)p^0=(\breve L,0,0)p0=(L˘,0,0), p1=(U˘,f(U˘),1)p^1=(\breve U,f(\breve U),1)p1=(U˘,f(U˘),1), p~i=(L˘+εσiei,0,0)\tilde p^i=(\breve L+\varepsilon\sigma_ie^i,0,0)p~​i=(L˘+εσi​ei,0,0) for i∉Ii\notin Ii∈/I, and p~i=(U˘−εσiei,f(U˘−εσiei),1)\tilde p^i=(\breve U-\varepsilon\sigma_ie^i,f(\breve U-\varepsilon\sigma_ie^i),1)p~​i=(U˘−εσi​ei,f(U˘−εσi​ei),1) for i∈Ii\in Ii∈I are feasible with respect to (6) and satisfy (6b) for III at equality; here σi=±1\sigma_i=\pm1σi​=±1 is the sign of wiw_iwi​ (with σi=1\sigma_i=1σi​=1 when wi=0w_i=0wi​=0).
  2. For every ε>0\varepsilon>0ε>0 these η+2\eta+2η+2 points are affinely independent.

Significance

The result. Proposition 1 shows that (6) is ideal; Proposition 2 shows it cannot be made smaller: removing any single inequality (6b) produces a strictly weaker relaxation. Since the family has 2∣supp⁡(w)∣2^{|\operatorname{supp}(w)|}2∣supp(w)∣ members, this is what justifies the paper's practical recommendation to start from the big-MMM formulation and separate inequalities of (6b) on demand (Proposition 3, p. 7) rather than to search for a smaller ideal description in the same variables. The facet structure also gives the geometric picture the paper describes after Proposition 2: each facet is the convex combination of an (η−∣I∣)(\eta-|I|)(η−∣I∣)-dimensional face at z=0z=0z=0 and an ∣I∣|I|∣I∣-dimensional face at z=1z=1z=1.

Formalizing it. The result is proved in the paper, in a half-page appendix; it has not been machine-checked. The formalization adds two things. First, the proof is written for w≥0w\ge0w≥0 "without loss of generality by appropriately interchanging +++ and −-−"; the Lean statements are for every sign pattern, including zero weights. Second, the appendix exhibits η+2\eta+2η+2 affinely independent points on the face, which bounds the face dimension from below; the statement that the face has dimension exactly one less than the polyhedron also needs the polyhedron to be full-dimensional and the face to lie in a proper hyperplane, steps the extended abstract leaves implicit and a complete proof must supply.

Difficulty

The arithmetic in each step is elementary. The work lies in the bookkeeping: choosing a single ε\varepsilonε that keeps every perturbed point inside the box and on the correct side of f=0f=0f=0 (this is exactly where strict activity enters), checking the perturbed points against all 2∣supp⁡(w)∣2^{|\operatorname{supp}(w)|}2∣supp(w)∣ inequalities of (6b) and not only the one for III, and turning a row-reduction argument on an (η+1)×(η+2)(\eta+1)\times(\eta+2)(η+1)×(η+2) matrix into a statement about AffineIndependent and finrank of a vectorSpan in Lean. The natural shortcut, proving only that η+2\eta+2η+2 affinely independent tight points exist, is not Proposition 2: it says nothing about the dimension of the polyhedron itself.

Formalization scope

Inputs are Fin η → ℝ (indices 0,…,η−10,\dots,\eta-10,…,η−1 for the paper's 1,…,η1,\dots,\eta1,…,η); a point (x,y,z)(x,y,z)(x,y,z) is p : (Fin η → ℝ) × ℝ × ℝ with p.1 = x, p.2.1 = y, p.2.2 = z. M±(f)M^\pm(f)M±(f) are given by their closed forms w⋅U˘+bw\cdot\breve U+bw⋅U˘+b and w⋅L˘+bw\cdot\breve L+bw⋅L˘+b. In (6b), "i∉Ii\notin Ii∈/I" ranges over all indices outside III, zero weights included; III ranges over subsets of supp⁡(w)\operatorname{supp}(w)supp(w), as on the page.

Every goal and milestone keeps the standing assumptions of §1.3, Li<UiL_i<U_iLi​<Ui​ for all iii and strict activity, except the affine-independence milestone, which holds without them and is stated without them (a stronger statement). No other hypothesis is added. Strict activity excludes η=0\eta=0η=0, so no nonemptiness assumption on the index set is needed.

IsFacetDefining P g is the standard notion: validity, a nonempty face, and dim⁡F+1=dim⁡P\dim F+1=\dim PdimF+1=dimP with dimensions the finrank of the vectorSpan. The equation is written with +1+1+1 on the left so that no natural-number subtraction can make the empty set or a point a facet. The polyhedron is the convex hull of the points of (6), not the set form6 itself (which is not convex, since z∈{0,1}z\in\{0,1\}z∈{0,1}); by Proposition 1 it equals the LP relaxation relax6, but the statement does not depend on that.

The shared objects of this paper (the ReLU graph, L˘\breve LL˘, U˘\breve UU˘, M±M^\pmM±, support, strict activity, formulation (6), ideality) come from the shared definitions module ReluMIP.Ideal.Setting, common to the companion mission on Proposition 1; this mission's own definitions module adds form6, IsFacetDefining, the sign inward, and the indexed family facetPts of the η+2\eta+2η+2 points. The facet notion and the affine-independence argument are reusable for other facet proofs of polyhedra in product spaces. Proofs of the milestones, of the goal, and of the full-dimensionality step are all welcome.

Selected references

  • R. Anderson, J. Huchette, C. Tjandraatmadja, J. P. Vielma, Strong mixed-integer programming formulations for trained neural networks, IPCO 2019, LNCS 11480, pp. 27–42; preprint arXiv:1811.08359v2, 2019. https://arxiv.org/abs/1811.08359v2
  • R. Anderson, J. Huchette, W. Ma, C. Tjandraatmadja, J. P. Vielma, Strong mixed-integer programming formulations for trained neural networks, Mathematical Programming 183 (2020), 3–39. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10107-020-01474-5
  • G. L. Nemhauser, L. A. Wolsey, Integer and Combinatorial Optimization, Wiley, 1988. https://doi.org/10.1002/9781118627372
  • M. Conforti, G. Cornuéjols, G. Zambelli, Integer Programming, Springer, 2014. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-11008-0
  • J. P. Vielma, Mixed integer linear programming formulation techniques, SIAM Review 57 (2015), 3–57. https://doi.org/10.1137/130915303
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Algorithmic Game TheoryOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Supplier Centrality and Auditing Priority in Socially Responsible Supply Chains II: A Stable Joint-Auditing Coalition Audits the Common Supplier and Shares Costs FairlyResearch Paper

Motivation

Brands that sell consumer goods are held responsible by the public for the labour and safety practices of their suppliers. After the 2013 Rana Plaza collapse in Bangladesh, about 200 clothing brands and retailers signed the Accord on Fire and Building Safety and inspect roughly 1,600 factories jointly; pharmaceutical companies such as Pfizer and GSK audit their suppliers jointly through the Pharmaceutical Supply Chain Initiative (both examples from the paper, pp. 4 and 14). Two features of such supply bases matter for auditing. Competing brands often share a common supplier, so a scandal at that supplier hurts both of them. And brands compete downstream, so a scandal that hurts only a rival can help a brand.

Chen, Qi and Dawande (MSOM 2020; accepted manuscript SSRN 2889889) model two competing buyers with one common and two independent suppliers. Their Proposition 2 shows that, when each buyer audits on his own, competition drives the buyers away from the common supplier: in every equilibrium it is left unaudited. This mission formalizes their Proposition 3. It shows that a coalition that audits jointly, and splits the cost by a Shapley-value rule, does audit the common supplier and is stable. A companion mission (Supplier Centrality … I) covers Proposition 2.

Setting

Two buyers B1,B2B_1, B_2B1​,B2​ source from three suppliers: BiB_iBi​ from its independent supplier SiS_iSi​, and both from the common supplier ScS_cSc​. Each supplier is compliant with probability e∈(0,1)e\in(0,1)e∈(0,1). A non-compliant supplier that passes an audit of effort x∈[0,1]x\in[0,1]x∈[0,1] (probability 1−x1-x1−x) is exposed in public with probability r∈(0,1]r\in(0,1]r∈(0,1]. An independent supplier audited with effort xxx therefore causes damage with probability λI(x)=r(1−e)(1−x)\lambda_I(x)=r(1-e)(1-x)λI​(x)=r(1−e)(1−x). The three suppliers offend independently.

If buyer BiB_iBi​ has ni∈{0,1,2}n_i\in\{0,1,2\}ni​∈{0,1,2} exposed suppliers, its demand intercept falls from α\alphaα to α−dM\alpha-d_Mα−dM​ (by dM>0d_M>0dM​>0 once, however many offend). Each exposed supplier also raises its unit input cost from www to w^≥w\hat w\ge ww^≥w. The buyers then play a Cournot game with differentiated products (substitution β∈(0,1]\beta\in(0,1]β∈(0,1]). Buyer B1B_1B1​'s equilibrium profit is π1b(n1,n2)=(q1∗)2\pi^b_1(n_1,n_2)=(q^*_1)^2π1b​(n1​,n2​)=(q1∗​)2, where

q1∗=2(A1−c1)−β(A2−c2)4−β2,Ai=α−dM1{ni≥1},ci=(2−ni)w+niw^.q^*_1=\frac{2(A_1-c_1)-\beta(A_2-c_2)}{4-\beta^2},\qquad A_i=\alpha-d_M\mathbf 1\{n_i\ge1\},\quad c_i=(2-n_i)w+n_i\hat w.q1∗​=4−β22(A1​−c1​)−β(A2​−c2​)​,Ai​=α−dM​1{ni​≥1},ci​=(2−ni​)w+ni​w^.

The aggregate ex post profit is πb(i dM,j dM)=π1b(i,j)+π2b(i,j)\pi^b(i\,d_M,j\,d_M)=\pi^b_1(i,j)+\pi^b_2(i,j)πb(idM​,jdM​)=π1b​(i,j)+π2b​(i,j). Auditing a supplier with effort xxx costs K1{x>0}+a2x2K\mathbf 1\{x>0\}+\tfrac a2x^2K1{x>0}+2a​x2.

Unilateral auditing. Each buyer audits at most one of his two suppliers. Πib\Pi^b_iΠib​ is buyer BiB_iBi​'s expected profit net of his own audit costs. An equilibrium is a pair of mutual best responses in which, by the paper's tie-breaking rule, a buyer who audits strictly prefers it to not auditing. The effort e^I\hat e_Ie^I​ of eq. (2) is a buyer's optimal effort on his own supplier when the rival does not audit.

Joint auditing. The coalition chooses efforts x=(ec1,ecc,ec2)∈[0,1]3x=(e_{c1},e_{cc},e_{c2})\in[0,1]^3x=(ec1​,ecc​,ec2​)∈[0,1]3 on S1,Sc,S2S_1,S_c,S_2S1​,Sc​,S2​, auditing at most two suppliers, and pays each audited supplier's cost once. The buyers still compete downstream. With Rib(x)R^b_i(x)Rib​(x) the buyers' expected profits excluding audit costs, the coalition's profit is

Πb(x)=R1b(x)+R2b(x)−∑j∈{1,c,2}[K1{ecj>0}+a2ecj2].\Pi^b(x)=R^b_1(x)+R^b_2(x)-\sum_{j\in\{1,c,2\}}\Big[K\mathbf 1\{e_{cj}>0\}+\tfrac a2e_{cj}^2\Big].Πb(x)=R1b​(x)+R2b​(x)−j∈{1,c,2}∑​[K1{ecj​>0}+2a​ecj2​].

The difference of the buyers' profits is ΔΠ=R1b−R2b\Delta\Pi=R^b_1-R^b_2ΔΠ=R1b​−R2b​. The cost shares are Γ1,2=12[total cost±ΔΠ]\Gamma_{1,2}=\tfrac12[\text{total cost}\pm\Delta\Pi]Γ1,2​=21​[total cost±ΔΠ] (eq. (3)). The analysis assumes the scenario

πb(0,0)≥πb(dM,0)≥πb(dM,dM)≥πb(2dM,dM)≥πb(2dM,2dM).\pi^b(0,0)\ge\pi^b(d_M,0)\ge\pi^b(d_M,d_M)\ge\pi^b(2d_M,d_M)\ge\pi^b(2d_M,2d_M).πb(0,0)≥πb(dM​,0)≥πb(dM​,dM​)≥πb(2dM​,dM​)≥πb(2dM​,2dM​).

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 3

There are thresholds KcL≤KcHK^L_c\le K^H_cKcL​≤KcH​ such that, for every K≥0K\ge0K≥0, an optimal joint plan

{audits S1 and Sc, ΔΠ>0,K<KcL,audits only Sc, ΔΠ=0,KcL≤K<KcH,audits nothing,K≥KcH.\begin{cases}\text{audits } S_1 \text{ and } S_c,\ \Delta\Pi>0, & K<K^L_c,\\ \text{audits only } S_c,\ \Delta\Pi=0, & K^L_c\le K<K^H_c,\\ \text{audits nothing}, & K\ge K^H_c.\end{cases}⎩⎨⎧​audits S1​ and Sc​, ΔΠ>0,audits only Sc​, ΔΠ=0,audits nothing,​K<KcL​,KcL​≤K<KcH​,K≥KcH​.​

The coalition is also stable. At an optimal plan its aggregate profit is at least the buyers' aggregate profit in any unilateral equilibrium. After paying Γi\Gamma_iΓi​, each buyer earns at least his profit in a symmetric unilateral equilibrium.

Milestones

The coalition's profit as a sum of unilateral profits (proof of Lemma OA9). Lemma OA9: ScS_cSc​ beats one independent supplier, and beats no audit for K<K^K<\hat KK<K^. Lemma OA10: ScS_cSc​ with S1S_1S1​ beats S1S_1S1​ with S2S_2S2​. Lemma OA11: S1S_1S1​ with ScS_cSc​ beats ScS_cSc​ alone for K<K~K<\tilde KK<K~. The fair shares (3). The case analysis with KcL=min⁡{K^+K~2,K~}K^L_c=\min\{\frac{\hat K+\tilde K}2,\tilde K\}KcL​=min{2K^+K~​,K~} and KcH=max⁡{K^+K~2,K^}K^H_c=\max\{\frac{\hat K+\tilde K}2,\hat K\}KcH​=max{2K^+K~​,K^}. Stability.

Significance

The result separates two effects of downstream competition on responsible sourcing. Under unilateral auditing, a buyer gains nothing private from auditing the shared supplier: the reduction in risk accrues equally to his rival. The joint coalition removes this free-riding. The common supplier is audited whenever anything is, and the Shapley-type split (3) charges the buyer who also has his own supplier audited for the competitive advantage this gives him (Γ1>Γ2\Gamma_1>\Gamma_2Γ1​>Γ2​ exactly when ΔΠ>0\Delta\Pi>0ΔΠ>0). The paper's welfare comparison (Proposition 4) builds on this proposition and on Proposition 2.

The proof in the e-companion argues through four comparisons of candidate plans and short cost-sharing algebra. None of it is machine-checked. A formal proof fixes the model (in particular which costs the coalition pays and what "at most two suppliers" excludes) and checks each comparison. In one place it also corrects the printed claim: the per-firm stability argument is given only for the symmetric unilateral equilibrium, and it does not extend to the asymmetric one (see Formalization scope).

Difficulty

All objects are explicit polynomials in the efforts. The difficulty is in the comparisons. Lemmas OA9 and OA10 compare different audit plans through the scenario ordering of aggregate ex post profits, an assumption on the stage-2 closed form that is not implied by the standing conditions. The obvious attempt, comparing first-order conditions, fails because the coalition's profit is discontinuous at zero effort (the fixed cost) and the feasible set is not convex: "at most two of three" is a union of faces of the cube. The thresholds K^\hat KK^, K~\tilde KK~ are differences of maxima, so the case analysis has to handle ties and the boundary K=KcHK=K^H_cK=KcH​ with weak inequalities. Stability needs the unilateral equilibria of Proposition 2, so the full goal reaches into the companion mission's game.

Formalization scope

  • Model. Params holds α,β,w,w^,dM,e,r,a\alpha,\beta,w,\hat w,d_M,e,r,aα,β,w,w^,dM​,e,r,a with β∈[0,1]\beta\in[0,1]β∈[0,1], w≤w^w\le\hat ww≤w^, dM>0d_M>0dM​>0, e∈(0,1)e\in(0,1)e∈(0,1), r∈(0,1]r\in(0,1]r∈(0,1], a>0a>0a>0 and the three positivity conditions of p. 8. Every statement adds β>0\beta>0β>0 (Sec. 4.3 continues the competing case) and the p. 13 scenario as five inequalities between piAgg values. Their arguments count exposed suppliers: πb(2dM,dM)\pi^b(2d_M,d_M)πb(2dM​,dM​) is a label, not a damage of 2dM2d_M2dM​.
  • Expected profits are 8-outcome expectations of the closed-form stage-2 profit. The coalition's profit charges each audited supplier once, and the common supplier's damage probability under a joint audit is r(1−e)(1−ecc)r(1-e)(1-e_{cc})r(1−e)(1−ecc​).
  • Thresholds K^,K~\hat K,\tilde KK^,K~ are the maxima at K=0K=0K=0 written as sSup over [0,1][0,1][0,1] and [0,1]2[0,1]^2[0,1]2. At K=0K=0K=0 the profit is a polynomial, so these suprema are attained.
  • "Yields the highest aggregate profit" is read as "some maximizer over the feasible plans has this pattern"; uniqueness is not claimed. ΔΠ\Delta\PiΔΠ is evaluated at that maximizer (its mirror image, which audits S2S_2S2​, has ΔΠ<0\Delta\Pi<0ΔΠ<0).
  • Cost shares use the total cost of the plan. For plans with ec2=0e_{c2}=0ec2​=0 they are the printed formulas (3).
  • Unilateral benchmark. The equilibrium includes the tie-breaking rule of p. 10, and the interior-effort assumption of p. 10 is encoded as e^I<1\hat e_I<1e^I​<1, with e^I\hat e_Ie^I​ given by eq. (2).
  • Stability, corrected. Condition (b) of Sec. 4.3 (each firm earns more) is stated against symmetric unilateral equilibria only, the case the paper's proof treats. Against the asymmetric equilibrium, where one buyer audits with e^I\hat e_Ie^I​ and the other audits nothing, it fails. Take α=10\alpha=10α=10, β=1\beta=1β=1, w=1w=1w=1, w^=3\hat w=3w^=3, dM=12d_M=\tfrac12dM​=21​, e=110e=\tfrac1{10}e=101​, r=1r=1r=1, a=50a=50a=50, K=0.2K=0.2K=0.2: the coalition optimally audits nothing, yet the auditing buyer earns more unilaterally than half of the coalition's profit. Condition (a) is stated against every equilibrium. "Higher" is stated as ≥\ge≥.
  • The goal's thresholds are existential and come before ∀K\forall K∀K. Choosing KcL=KcHK^L_c=K^H_cKcL​=KcH​ does not trivialize it, because the three cases must cover every K≥0K\ge0K≥0. The milestone on part (2) fixes the thresholds explicitly.
  • The source is the authors' SSRN accepted manuscript. Main-text page numbers equal PDF pages, and e-companion page eckkk is PDF page 28+k28+k28+k.

Contributions welcome: proofs of Lemmas OA9–OA11, which are self-contained polynomial inequalities; existence of maximizers on the non-convex feasible set (upper semicontinuity); and the link to the unilateral equilibria needed for stability.

Selected references

  • F. Chen, A. Qi, M. Dawande, Supplier Centrality and Auditing Priority in Socially-Responsible Supply Chains, Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, 2020; accepted manuscript, SSRN 2889889. https://ssrn.com/abstract=2889889
  • E. L. Plambeck, T. A. Taylor, Supplier evasion of a buyer's audit: Implications for motivating supplier social and environmental responsibility, Manufacturing & Service Operations Management 18(2):184–197, 2016. https://doi.org/10.1287/msom.2015.0550
  • N. Singh, X. Vives, Price and quantity competition in a differentiated duopoly, RAND Journal of Economics 15(4):546–554, 1984. https://doi.org/10.2307/2555525
10 thms1 active userReviewed
Partial Differential EquationsProbabilityStochastic Systems·Captain: mikedeng1

Global C¹ Regularity of the Value Function in Optimal Stopping Problems 2: In Finite Horizon, Probabilistic Regularity of the Boundary Makes the Time Derivative of the Value Function ContinuousResearch Paper

Motivation

In an optimal stopping problem the value function VVV and the gain function GGG agree on the stopping set D={V=G}D=\{V=G\}D={V=G}, and V>GV>GV>G on the continuation set CCC. The smooth fit principle says that, at the boundary ∂C\partial C∂C between them, VVV meets GGG with matching first derivatives. Smooth fit is one of the boundary conditions in the free-boundary problems that characterise optimal stopping boundaries. It is behind the integral equations for the early-exercise boundary of the American put and for many problems in sequential analysis and finance (Peskir & Shiryaev, 2006). On a finite horizon the value depends on the remaining time, and continuity of the time derivative ∂tV\partial_tV∂t​V across ∂C\partial C∂C is the step that justifies the local time-space calculus applied to VVV (Peskir, 2005).

Before De Angelis & Peskir (2020) such continuity results were proved problem by problem, or under sign conditions that the main examples do not satisfy: G=0G=0G=0 on the stopping set and H<0H<0H<0 globally, which fails for the American put. Their paper gives two general results. Theorem 8 covers the space derivative, and Theorem 15, the subject of this mission, covers the time derivative on a finite horizon. Both are stated for a strong Markov process realised as a stochastic flow, and both rest on probabilistic regularity of the boundary.

Setting

Fix a horizon T>0T>0T>0 and d=m+1≥1d=m+1\ge1d=m+1≥1. The process is the time-space process Xst,x=(t+s,Xsx)X^{t,x}_s=(t+s,X^x_s)Xst,x​=(t+s,Xsx​). Its first coordinate is time, and (Xsx)s≥0, x∈Rd−1(X^x_s)_{s\ge0,\,x\in\mathbb R^{d-1}}(Xsx​)s≥0,x∈Rd−1​ is a stochastic flow on a probability space (Ω,F,P)(\Omega,\mathcal F,P)(Ω,F,P) with a right-continuous filtration (Fs)(\mathcal F_s)(Fs​), adapted to it, with X0x=xX^x_0=xX0x​=x. Its paths are right-continuous with left limits, it is left-continuous over stopping times, and it is strong Markov. The flow is continuous in the space variable if, outside one null set, x↦Xsx(ω)x\mapsto X^x_s(\omega)x↦Xsx​(ω) is continuous for every sss.

Given continuous functions λ≥0\lambda\ge0λ≥0, GGG and HHH of (t,x)(t,x)(t,x), write Λst,x=∫0sλ(t+u,Xux) du\Lambda^{t,x}_s=\int_0^s\lambda(t+u,X^x_u)\,duΛst,x​=∫0s​λ(t+u,Xux​)du. The value function is

V(t,x)=sup⁡0≤τ≤T−tE[e−Λτt,xG(t+τ,Xτx)+∫0τe−Λst,xH(t+s,Xsx) ds]V(t,x)=\sup_{0\le\tau\le T-t}\mathsf E\Big[e^{-\Lambda^{t,x}_\tau}G(t+\tau,X^x_\tau)+\int_0^\tau e^{-\Lambda^{t,x}_s}H(t+s,X^x_s)\,ds\Big]V(t,x)=0≤τ≤T−tsup​E[e−Λτt,x​G(t+τ,Xτx​)+∫0τ​e−Λst,x​H(t+s,Xsx​)ds]

over stopping times τ\tauτ bounded by the remaining time T−tT-tT−t. The sets are C={V>G}C=\{V>G\}C={V>G} and D={V=G}D=\{V=G\}D={V=G} inside [0,T]×Rd−1[0,T]\times\mathbb R^{d-1}[0,T]×Rd−1, and ∂C=D∩C‾\partial C=D\cap\overline C∂C=D∩C. The problem is well posed if the expected payoffs are integrable and the first entry time τD\tau_DτD​ into DDD is optimal.

The first hitting time of a set AAA is σAt,x=inf⁡{s∈(0,T−t]:Xst,x∈A}\sigma^{t,x}_A=\inf\{s\in(0,T-t]:X^{t,x}_s\in A\}σAt,x​=inf{s∈(0,T−t]:Xst,x​∈A}. A point zzz is probabilistically regular for AAA if P(σAz=0)=1P(\sigma^z_A=0)=1P(σAz​=0)=1. The generator LX\mathbb L_XLX​ (2.14) acts in the space variable, with diffusion matrix σij\sigma_{ij}σij​, drift μi\mu_iμi​, killing rate λ\lambdaλ and jump measure ν\nuν. Its coefficient formula is tied to the flow by the right derivative at zero of the killed spatial semigroup applied to G(t,⋅)G(t,\cdot)G(t,⋅). The function H~=Gt+LXG+H\tilde H=G_t+\mathbb L_XG+HH~=Gt​+LX​G+H appears in the hypotheses.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 15, global form (p. 20)

Assume well-posedness, (5.9) (VVV continuous on [0,T]×Rd−1[0,T]\times\mathbb R^{d-1}[0,T]×Rd−1 and C1C^1C1 on CCC), (5.10) (G∈C1,2G\in C^{1,2}G∈C1,2) and (5.11) (Lipschitz continuity of H~\tilde HH~ and λ\lambdaλ in ttt, uniformly in xxx), and a continuous flow. Assume the local conditions (5.12)–(5.13) and probabilistic regularity for D∘D^\circD∘ at every z∈∂Cz\in\partial Cz∈∂C. Then

∂tV exists and is continuous on [0,T]×Rd−1.\partial_tV\ \text{exists and is continuous on }[0,T]\times\mathbb R^{d-1}.∂t​V exists and is continuous on [0,T]×Rd−1.

Milestones

  1. (5.17): along every sequence (tn,xn)∈C(t_n,x_n)\in C(tn​,xn​)∈C with (tn,xn)→z(t_n,x_n)\to z(tn​,xn​)→z, lim inf⁡nVt(tn,xn)≥Gt(z)\displaystyle\liminf_{n}V_t(t_n,x_n)\ge G_t(z)nliminf​Vt​(tn​,xn​)≥Gt​(z).
  2. (5.20): along the same sequences, lim sup⁡nVt(tn,xn)≤Gt(z)\displaystyle\limsup_{n}V_t(t_n,x_n)\le G_t(z)nlimsup​Vt​(tn​,xn​)≤Gt​(z).
  3. Theorem 15, (5.14): at a single regular z∈∂Cz\in\partial Cz∈∂C,
∂tV(z)=∂tG(z)andlim⁡C∋(t,x)→z∂tV(t,x)=∂tG(z).\partial_tV(z)=\partial_tG(z)\quad\text{and}\quad\lim_{C\ni(t,x)\to z}\partial_tV(t,x)=\partial_tG(z).∂t​V(z)=∂t​G(z)andC∋(t,x)→zlim​∂t​V(t,x)=∂t​G(z).

Significance

The result. Theorem 15 turns a probabilistic property of the boundary, which can be checked through sample-path arguments, into the analytic smooth-fit condition in time. Continuity of ∂tV\partial_tV∂t​V across ∂C\partial C∂C is the hypothesis that the change-of-variable formula with local time on curves and surfaces requires. That formula yields the free-boundary integral equations for optimal stopping boundaries. The theorem needs no sign condition on GGG or HHH and no strong Feller property. The time-space process is never strong Feller, which is exactly why the earlier strong Feller route to boundary regularity does not apply here.

Formalizing it. The result is proved in the paper; nothing here is open mathematics. As far as is known no part of it has been machine-checked. Mathlib has stopping times and conditional expectation, but no stochastic flows, no generators of jump diffusions and no optimal stopping in continuous time. A complete development formalizes the proof on pp. 20–23 together with the upper semicontinuity of hitting times of open sets (Lemma 4 and Corollary 6 of the paper, posed in the companion mission on the space derivative).

Difficulty

The infinite-horizon argument (Theorem 13, via Theorem 8) perturbs the starting point and reuses the optimal stopping time of the unperturbed problem. On a finite horizon this fails in the time variable. Shifting the start from tnt_ntn​ to tn+εnt_n+\varepsilon_ntn​+εn​ shortens the remaining horizon, so the stopping time optimal for V(tn,xn)V(t_n,x_n)V(tn​,xn​) is no longer admissible for V(tn+εn,xn)V(t_n+\varepsilon_n,x_n)V(tn​+εn​,xn​). A first-order comparison of payoffs therefore cannot be used. The proof truncates the stopping time and controls the truncated part, which is the role of the identity (5.12) and of the window [T−t−ε,T−t][T-t-\varepsilon,T-t][T−t−ε,T−t] in (5.13). The convergence τn→0\tau_n\to0τn​→0 of the optimal stopping times has to come from regularity of zzz for the interior D∘D^\circD∘ and continuity of the flow, not from the strong Feller property.

Formalization scope

  • Space Rd−1\mathbb R^{d-1}Rd−1 is EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin m) with d=m+1d=m+1d=m+1. Time is ℝ≥0. Points of the time-space domain are pairs in ℝ × EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin m), and [0,T]×Rd−1[0,T]\times\mathbb R^{d-1}[0,T]×Rd−1 is Set.Icc 0 T ×ˢ univ.
  • PxP_xPx​ and Ex\mathsf E_xEx​ are PPP and E\mathsf EE of the flow started at xxx. All stopping times are for one common right-continuous filtration and are finite valued. Admissible times for (t,x)(t,x)(t,x) satisfy τ≤T−t\tau\le T-tτ≤T−t.
  • Hitting and entry times take values in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞] (WithTop ℝ≥0) with inf⁡∅=∞\inf\emptyset=\inftyinf∅=∞, and are capped by the horizon.
  • Expectations are Bochner integrals. Well-posedness carries integrability of every admissible payoff and optimality of a stopping time equal to τD\tau_DτD​ almost surely, so VVV is attained and is not a junk supremum.
  • ∂C:=D∩C‾\partial C:=D\cap\overline C∂C:=D∩C. "C∋(t,x)→zC\ni(t,x)\to zC∋(t,x)→z" is the filter NC(z)\mathcal N_C(z)NC​(z), and ∂tV\partial_tV∂t​V is the derivative of s↦V(s,x)s\mapsto V(s,x)s↦V(s,x) within [0,T][0,T][0,T]. The pointwise clause "continuous at zzz" means convergence along CCC; the global clause is ContinuousOn on [0,T]×Rd−1[0,T]\times\mathbb R^{d-1}[0,T]×Rd−1.
  • (5.13) is an integrable majorant valid simultaneously for all points of the window. The ball b(z,ε)b(z,\varepsilon)b(z,ε) is the max-metric ball, which is equivalent because ε\varepsilonε is existential. (5.12) includes integrability of both sides.
  • D∘D^\circD∘ is the interior in R×Rd−1\mathbb R\times\mathbb R^{d-1}R×Rd−1. No point with t=Tt=Tt=T is probabilistically regular, so the global hypothesis requires C‾\overline CC to avoid t=Tt=Tt=T. This is the paper's scope, not an addition.
  • The model is not specialized: any d≥1d\ge1d≥1, general λ\lambdaλ, jumps allowed, càdlàg paths, unbounded GGG, HHH and VVV. A formalization that takes Λ≡0\Lambda\equiv0Λ≡0, d=1d=1d=1, continuous paths, or the strong Feller property is a different theorem.

Contributions welcome: the hitting-time lemmas (upper semicontinuity of σD∘\sigma_{D^\circ}σD∘​ under a continuous flow), dominated-convergence lemmas for the truncated stopping times, and the two halves (5.17) and (5.20).

Selected references

  • T. De Angelis, G. Peskir, Global C¹ regularity of the value function in optimal stopping problems, Ann. Appl. Probab. 30(3), 2020. Preprint arXiv:1812.04564v2. https://arxiv.org/abs/1812.04564v2
  • G. Peskir, A. Shiryaev, Optimal Stopping and Free-Boundary Problems, Birkhäuser, 2006. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-7643-7390-0
  • G. Peskir, A change-of-variable formula with local time on curves, J. Theoret. Probab. 18, 2005. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10959-005-3517-6
  • R. M. Blumenthal, R. K. Getoor, Markov Processes and Potential Theory, Academic Press, 1968.
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Partial Differential EquationsProbabilityStochastic Systems·Captain: mikedeng1

Global C¹ Regularity of the Value Function in Optimal Stopping Problems 1: Probabilistic Regularity of the Boundary Makes the Value Function Continuously DifferentiableResearch Paper

Why boundary regularity matters

An optimal stopping rule chooses when to end a stochastic process in order to collect a terminal reward, possibly after earning or paying a running reward. The resulting value function often solves a free-boundary problem: the state space splits into a region where stopping is optimal and one where continuing is better. Smoothness inside either region does not by itself say what happens where the regions meet. This mission concerns the global first spatial derivative of that value function at the optimal stopping boundary.

De Angelis and Peskir proved that a probabilistic condition on the boundary, together with regularity of the process as a spatial flow and explicit integrability bounds, gives continuous differentiability of the value function across the boundary. Their result applies to standard Markov processes with right-continuous paths and left limits, including jump processes; it is not restricted to diffusions or to a constant discount rate. The source is De Angelis and Peskir, arXiv:1812.04564v2, Theorem 8.

The stopping problem and its boundary

Let d≥1d\ge1d≥1, let E=RdE=\mathbb R^dE=Rd, and let XtxX_t^xXtx​ be a stochastic flow: the same probability space carries a path starting from every state x∈Ex\in Ex∈E. Time is nonnegative. One right-continuous filtration makes every path adapted and is used for every stopping rule. The process is strong Markov, has right-continuous paths with left limits, is left continuous over stopping times, and starts from X0x=xX_0^x=xX0x​=x. Expectations and probabilities written ExE_xEx​ and PxP_xPx​ in the paper are the expectation and probability of the flow XxX^xXx under one measure PPP.

The continuous data are a nonnegative discount rate λ:E→[0,∞)\lambda:E\to[0,\infty)λ:E→[0,∞), a terminal reward G:E→RG:E\to\mathbb RG:E→R, and a running reward H:E→RH:E\to\mathbb RH:E→R. The discount accumulated along the path from xxx is Λtx=∫0tλ(Xsx) ds\Lambda_t^x=\int_0^t\lambda(X_s^x)\,dsΛtx​=∫0t​λ(Xsx​)ds. For every finite-valued stopping time τ\tauτ of the common filtration, define

J(x,τ)=E ⁣[e−ΛτxG(Xτx)+∫0τe−ΛtxH(Xtx) dt],V(x)=sup⁡τJ(x,τ).J(x,\tau)=E\!\left[e^{-\Lambda_\tau^x}G(X_\tau^x)+\int_0^\tau e^{-\Lambda_t^x}H(X_t^x)\,dt\right], \qquad V(x)=\sup_\tau J(x,\tau).J(x,τ)=E[e−Λτx​G(Xτx​)+∫0τ​e−Λtx​H(Xtx​)dt],V(x)=τsup​J(x,τ).

This is the infinite-horizon problem (2.1). It is well posed here when all admissible payoffs are integrable and the first entry time into the stopping set is an almost surely finite optimal stopping time. These conditions ensure that VVV is a real, attained supremum rather than a default value of Lean's real supremum or integral. Define the stopping set D={x:V(x)=G(x)}D=\{x:V(x)=G(x)\}D={x:V(x)=G(x)}, the continuation set C={x:V(x)>G(x)}C=\{x:V(x)>G(x)\}C={x:V(x)>G(x)}, and the boundary relevant to the theorem as D∩C‾D\cap\overline CD∩C. For a state set AAA, the first entry time is τAx=inf⁡{t≥0:Xtx∈A}\tau_A^x=\inf\{t\ge0:X_t^x\in A\}τAx​=inf{t≥0:Xtx​∈A} and the first strictly positive hitting time is σAx=inf⁡{t>0:Xtx∈A}\sigma_A^x=\inf\{t>0:X_t^x\in A\}σAx​=inf{t>0:Xtx​∈A}. Both may be infinite.

A boundary point zzz is probabilistically regular for AAA if Pz(σA=0)=1P_z(\sigma_A=0)=1Pz​(σA​=0)=1. It is Green regular for AAA when Px(τA≥ε)→0P_x(\tau_A\ge\varepsilon)\to0Px​(τA​≥ε)→0 as x→zx\to zx→z through CCC, for every ε>0\varepsilon>0ε>0. The paper obtains Green regularity by either strong Feller continuity with probabilistic regularity for DDD, or spatial continuity of the flow with probabilistic regularity for D∘D^\circD∘. Lemma 1 and Corollaries 2–3 give the first route; Lemma 4 and Corollaries 5–6 give the second. All six statements use an arbitrary closed DDD, as in Section 3 of the source. Source: §§2–3, pp. 3–11.

Formalization targets

The milestone results first establish the two boundary regularity routes. In particular, approaching zzz through CCC, the first route gives τDxn→0\tau_D^{x_n}\to0τDxn​​→0 in probability; the second gives τD∘xn→0\tau_{D^\circ}^{x_n}\to0τD∘xn​​→0 and τDxn→0\tau_D^{x_n}\to0τDxn​​→0 almost surely. Equations (4.16) and (4.19) then bound, respectively, the lower and upper limits of each coordinate derivative ∂iV(xn)\partial_iV(x_n)∂i​V(xn​) by ∂iG(z)\partial_iG(z)∂i​G(z). The pointwise part of Theorem 8 concludes

DV(z)=DG(z),lim⁡C∋x→zDV(x)=DG(z).D V(z)=D G(z),\qquad \lim_{C\ni x\to z}D V(x)=D G(z).DV(z)=DG(z),C∋x→zlim​DV(x)=DG(z).

The mission goal is the final sentence of Theorem 8. If the theorem's local hypotheses hold at every z∈D∩C‾z\in D\cap\overline Cz∈D∩C, then

V∈C1(Rd).V\in C^1(\mathbb R^d).V∈C1(Rd).

The hypotheses include the discounted generator representation (2.14) from the problem setup, continuity and interior C1C^1C1 regularity of VVV, global C1C^1C1 regularity of GGG, one positive Lipschitz constant for both HHH and λ\lambdaλ, a C1C^1C1 spatial flow, the four local bounds (4.4)–(4.7) with one radius at each boundary point, and one of the two probabilistic regularity alternatives. The goal retains all dimensions d≥1d\ge1d≥1, all nonnegative continuous discount rates, and the source's full class of standard Markov flows. Source: §2.5 and Theorem 8, pp. 7, 11–12.

What the result gives

The conclusion identifies the derivative of the value function on both sides of the stopping boundary. It strengthens a derivative match along a single direction or a chosen sequence into continuous differentiability on the whole state space. This is relevant to free-boundary formulations of optimal stopping, where interior regularity can be available from a Dirichlet or Poisson problem while boundary regularity remains the missing step. The authors describe that distinction in their discussion of smooth fit and global differentiability. Source: §2.5, p. 8.

The mathematical theorem is proved in the 2020 paper. In this mission, the definitions and statements compile as Lean declarations, while the theorem proofs remain to be formalized. A complete development would supply reusable arguments about hitting times, semicontinuity of hitting probabilities, stochastic flows, and limits of derivatives near a stopping boundary. Those components would also support the paper's finite-horizon spatial and temporal results.

The central difficulty

The value is a supremum over stopping rules. Differentiating the reward for a fixed stopping time does not automatically differentiate that supremum, because the optimal time depends on the initial state. Near the boundary, even continuity of the value does not control the duration of the optimal rule from neighboring states. The paper's probabilistic regularity conditions address that duration, while (4.4)–(4.7) provide the integrability needed to pass to derivative limits. A direct appeal to interior differentiability leaves the boundary itself untreated. Source: §§3–4.1, pp. 9–15.

Formalization scope

The state space is EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin d) with d≥1d\ge1d≥1; Fin d indices are the paper's coordinates 1,…,d1,\ldots,d1,…,d shifted by one. Balls are open Euclidean balls. Time is R≥0\mathbb R_{\ge0}R≥0​, and the entry and hitting times live in R≥0∪{+∞}\mathbb R_{\ge0}\cup\{+\infty\}R≥0​∪{+∞} so an unattained hit has its intended value. The flow is the process; no separate family of measures PxP_xPx​ is introduced. One common filtration is used for all initial states and is right-continuous. Its finite stopping times are the full admissible class, not only hitting times.

The value uses Bochner expectations and real Lebesgue time integrals. Well-posedness records integrability for every admissible payoff and optimality and almost sure finiteness of τDx\tau_D^xτDx​. The generator clause acts on smooth functions in the domain of the discounted transition semigroup; it retains the paper's diffusion, drift, killing, and jump terms. The boundary is D∩C‾D\cap\overline CD∩C, and approach through continuation points is expressed by the within-set neighborhood filter. Pointwise continuous differentiability means a Fréchet derivative at zzz equal to DG(z)D G(z)DG(z) and convergence of DVD VDV along CCC; the goal uses global ContDiff. The local bounds retain all independently indexed starting states and coordinates. Their uncountable suprema are represented by integrable common majorants, with timewise measurable envelopes for the suprema inside time integrals. This convention excludes default integral values from nonmeasurable or nonintegrable expressions.

A formalization restricted to Brownian motion, one dimension, zero or constant discount, continuous paths, bounded rewards, or only one boundary regularity branch would state a different theorem. Contributions toward measurable hitting-time events, the two Section 3 regularity chains, the envelope bounds, and the derivative comparison are welcome.

Selected references

  • De Angelis, T., and Peskir, G., Global C¹ Regularity of the Value Function in Optimal Stopping Problems, Annals of Applied Probability 30(3), 2020. arXiv:1812.04564v2; DOI:10.1214/19-AAP1517.
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Control TheoryProbabilityStochastic Systems·Captain: mikedeng1

A Mean Field Game of Optimal Portfolio Liquidation 2: The Value Functions of the Penalized Mean Field Games Converge in L¹ to the Value Function of the Liquidation-Constrained GameResearch Paper

Motivation

Optimal portfolio liquidation asks how a trader should unwind a position of X\mathcal XX shares over a horizon [0,T][0,T][0,T] when trading moves prices. Since Almgren and Chriss (2001) the standard model charges a quadratic cost ηtξt2\eta_t\xi_t^2ηt​ξt2​ for trading at rate ξt\xi_tξt​ (temporary impact) and a risk penalty λtXt2\lambda_tX_t^2λt​Xt2​ on the open position, and imposes the liquidation constraint XT=0X_T=0XT​=0. When many traders liquidate at once, each one's costs also depend on the others' aggregate trading rate μt\mu_tμt​ through a permanent impact term κtμtXt\kappa_t\mu_tX_tκt​μt​Xt​. Fu, Graewe, Horst and Popier (arXiv:1804.04911) model this as a mean field game (MFG) with common noise and prove that, under a weak-interaction condition, the game has a unique equilibrium.

The liquidation constraint makes the problem singular: the value function blows up at TTT, and the equilibrium is described by a forward-backward system whose decoupling field AAA satisfies a Riccati BSDE with terminal value AT=+∞A_T=+\inftyAT​=+∞. A natural question is whether the constraint can be replaced by a finite penalty nXT2nX_T^2nXT2​ on the unliquidated position, a non-singular problem of the type studied in the MFG literature, and whether the penalized equilibria approach the constrained one as n→∞n\to\inftyn→∞. Section 4 of the paper answers this at the level of values. In the single-agent case, singular terminal conditions of this type were studied by Ankirchner, Jeanblanc and Kruse (SIAM J. Control Optim., 2014) and Graewe, Horst and Séré (Stochastic Process. Appl., 2018), references [3] and [28] of the paper.

Setting

Fix T>0T>0T>0, an mmm-dimensional Brownian motion W~=(W0,W)\widetilde W=(W^0,W)W=(W0,W) whose first coordinate W0W^0W0 is common noise, and an initial position X∈L2\mathcal X\in L^2X∈L2 independent of W~\widetilde WW. Let F0\mathbb F^0F0 be the filtration of W0W^0W0 and F\mathbb FF that of (X,W~)(\mathcal X,\widetilde W)(X,W), both augmented. The coefficients κ,λ,η\kappa,\lambda,\etaκ,λ,η are bounded, nonnegative, F\mathbb FF-progressive processes, with λ\lambdaλ and η\etaη bounded below by positive constants. Write κmax⁡\kappa_{\max}κmax​, η⋆\eta_\starη⋆​, λ⋆\lambda_\starλ⋆​ for the essential supremum of κ\kappaκ and the essential infima of η\etaη and λ\lambdaλ, ∥η∥\|\eta\|∥η∥ for the essential supremum of ∣η∣|\eta|∣η∣, and α=η⋆/∥η∥∈(0,1]\alpha=\eta_\star/\|\eta\|\in(0,1]α=η⋆​/∥η∥∈(0,1]. Assumption 2.3 adds the weak-interaction condition: some θ>0\theta>0θ>0 satisfies κmax⁡<4η⋆θ\kappa_{\max}<4\eta_\star\thetaκmax​<4η⋆​θ and θκmax⁡<4λ⋆\theta\kappa_{\max}<4\lambda_\starθκmax​<4λ⋆​.

Given an aggregate rate μ\muμ, a trading rate ξ∈LF2\xi\in L^2_{\mathbb F}ξ∈LF2​ yields the position Xtξ=X−∫0tξs dsX^\xi_t=\mathcal X-\int_0^t\xi_s\,dsXtξ​=X−∫0t​ξs​ds. The constrained problem minimizes

J(X,ξ;μ)=E[∫0T(κsμsXsξ+ηsξs2+λs(Xsξ)2)ds ∣ X]J(\mathcal X,\xi;\mu)=\mathbb E\Big[\int_0^T\big(\kappa_s\mu_sX^\xi_s+\eta_s\xi_s^2+\lambda_s(X^\xi_s)^2\big)ds\,\Big|\,\mathcal X\Big]J(X,ξ;μ)=E[∫0T​(κs​μs​Xsξ​+ηs​ξs2​+λs​(Xsξ​)2)ds​X]

over ξ\xiξ with ∫0Tξs ds=X\int_0^T\xi_s\,ds=\mathcal X∫0T​ξs​ds=X; its value is V(X;μ)V(\mathcal X;\mu)V(X;μ). The penalized problem (4.1) drops the constraint and minimizes

Jn(ξ;μ)=E[∫0T(κtμtXtξ+ηtξt2+λt(Xtξ)2)dt+n(XTξ)2 ∣ X]J^n(\xi;\mu)=\mathbb E\Big[\int_0^T\big(\kappa_t\mu_tX^\xi_t+\eta_t\xi_t^2+\lambda_t(X^\xi_t)^2\big)dt+n(X^\xi_T)^2\,\Big|\,\mathcal X\Big]Jn(ξ;μ)=E[∫0T​(κt​μt​Xtξ​+ηt​ξt2​+λt​(Xtξ​)2)dt+n(XTξ​)2​X]

over all ξ∈LF2\xi\in L^2_{\mathbb F}ξ∈LF2​, with value Vn(X;μ)V^n(\mathcal X;\mu)Vn(X;μ). An equilibrium is a fixed point μt=E[ξt∗∣Ft0]\mu_t=\mathbb E[\xi^*_t|\mathcal F^0_t]μt​=E[ξt∗​∣Ft0​].

The constrained equilibrium is given by the FBSDE (2.3), dXt=−Yt2ηtdtdX_t=-\frac{Y_t}{2\eta_t}dtdXt​=−2ηt​Yt​​dt, −dYt=(κtE[Yt2ηt∣Ft0]+2λtXt)dt−Zt dW~t-dY_t=\big(\kappa_t\mathbb E[\frac{Y_t}{2\eta_t}|\mathcal F^0_t]+2\lambda_tX_t\big)dt-Z_t\,d\widetilde W_t−dYt​=(κt​E[2ηt​Yt​​∣Ft0​]+2λt​Xt​)dt−Zt​dWt​, X0=XX_0=\mathcal XX0​=X, XT=0X_T=0XT​=0, decoupled as Y=AX+BY=AX+BY=AX+B where

−dAt=(2λt−At22ηt)dt−ZtA dW~t,AT=+∞.-dA_t=\Big(2\lambda_t-\frac{A_t^2}{2\eta_t}\Big)dt-Z^A_t\,d\widetilde W_t,\qquad A_T=+\infty .−dAt​=(2λt​−2ηt​At2​​)dt−ZtA​dWt​,AT​=+∞.

The penalized equilibria are given by the FBSDE (4.2) with YTn=2nXTnY^n_T=2nX^n_TYTn​=2nXTn​, decoupled by AnA^nAn, the solution of the same Riccati BSDE with ATn=2nA^n_T=2nATn​=2n. The solutions live in weighted spaces: Hl\mathcal H_lHl​ with norm (Esup⁡t∣Yt/(T−t)l∣2)1/2\big(\mathbb E\sup_t|Y_t/(T-t)^l|^2\big)^{1/2}(Esupt​∣Yt​/(T−t)l∣2)1/2, and the penalized analogue Hln\mathcal H^n_lHln​ with weight (T−t+η⋆/n)−l(T-t+\eta_\star/n)^{-l}(T−t+η⋆​/n)−l. Assumption 4.1 requires a constant CCC with exp⁡(−∫rsAu2ηudu)≤CT−sT−r\exp\big(-\int_r^s\frac{A_u}{2\eta_u}du\big)\le C\frac{T-s}{T-r}exp(−∫rs​2ηu​Au​​du)≤CT−rT−s​ for all 0≤r≤s<T0\le r\le s<T0≤r≤s<T, almost surely.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 4.6

Under Assumptions 2.3 and 4.1, with μ∗=E[Y/(2η)∣F0]\mu^*=\mathbb E[Y/(2\eta)|\mathcal F^0]μ∗=E[Y/(2η)∣F0] the constrained equilibrium and μn=E[Yn/(2η)∣F0]\mu^n=\mathbb E[Y^n/(2\eta)|\mathcal F^0]μn=E[Yn/(2η)∣F0] the penalized ones,

lim⁡n→∞E∣Vn(X;μn)−V(X;μ∗)∣=0.\lim_{n\to\infty}\mathbb E\big|V^n(\mathcal X;\mu^n)-V(\mathcal X;\mu^*)\big|=0 .n→∞lim​E​Vn(X;μn)−V(X;μ∗)​=0.

Milestones

  1. Lemma 4.2 (first condition). If η\etaη is deterministic, Assumption 4.1 holds.
  2. Lemma A.3. AnA^nAn exists uniquely, Atn≥(12n+E[∫tTds2ηs∣Ft])−1A^n_t\ge\big(\frac1{2n}+\mathbb E[\int_t^T\frac{ds}{2\eta_s}|\mathcal F_t]\big)^{-1}Atn​≥(2n1​+E[∫tT​2ηs​ds​∣Ft​])−1, An↑AA^n\uparrow AAn↑A, and ∥An∥M−1+∥An∥M−1n≤C\|A^n\|_{\mathcal M_{-1}}+\|A^n\|_{\mathcal M^n_{-1}}\le\mathfrak C∥An∥M−1​​+∥An∥M−1n​​≤C uniformly in nnn.
  3. Theorem 4.3. The FBSDE (4.4), with parameter p∈[0,1]\mathfrak p\in[0,1]p∈[0,1] and data f∈L2f\in L^2f∈L2, has a unique solution in Hαn×Hγn×S2×L2×L2\mathcal H^n_\alpha\times\mathcal H^n_\gamma\times S^2\times L^2\times L^2Hαn​×Hγn​×S2×L2×L2.
  4. Lemma 4.4. ∥Xn∥n,α+∥Bn∥n,γ+E∫0T∣Ytn∣2dt≤C‾\|X^n\|_{n,\alpha}+\|B^n\|_{n,\gamma}+\mathbb E\int_0^T|Y^n_t|^2dt\le\overline{\mathfrak C}∥Xn∥n,α​+∥Bn∥n,γ​+E∫0T​∣Ytn​∣2dt≤C uniformly in nnn.
  5. (4.8). Under Assumption 4.1 the constrained equilibrium position satisfies ∥X∗∥1<∞\|X^*\|_1<\infty∥X∗∥1​<∞.
  6. Lemma 4.5. (Xn,Bn,Yn)→(X,B,Y)(X^n,B^n,Y^n)\to(X,B,Y)(Xn,Bn,Yn)→(X,B,Y) in L2(dt⊗dP)L^2(dt\otimes d\mathbb P)L2(dt⊗dP).

Significance

The result is a consistency statement between two models of liquidation. Penalized models are what a numerical scheme or a standard MFG solver can handle, since their FBSDEs have finite terminal data. Theorem 4.6 says that equilibrium values computed with a large penalty approximate the value of the hard-constrained game, and Lemma 4.5 says the same for positions and trading rates. Without it, a penalized model would be an unrelated object rather than an approximation of the constrained one.

The result is proved in the paper; it is not formalized anywhere. A machine-checked development would need, beyond the paper, the theory of quadratic BSDEs with finite and singular terminal values, conditional mean-field FBSDEs with common noise, and conditional essential infima of control problems. The milestones isolate reusable pieces: the monotone approximation of a singular Riccati BSDE (Lemma A.3) and uniform estimates in nnn-dependent weighted spaces (Lemma 4.4).

Difficulty

The obvious argument compares the two problems control by control: the constrained optimizer is admissible for the penalized problem, so Vn≤VV^n\le VVn≤V up to the change of μ\muμ. The reverse inequality is where it fails. The penalized optimizer leaves a residual position XTn≠0X^n_T\neq0XTn​=0, and its cost has to be compared with the singular one, whose weight (T−t)−1(T-t)^{-1}(T−t)−1 explodes at TTT. Controlling this requires estimates uniform in nnn in spaces whose weights (T−t+η⋆/n)−l(T-t+\eta_\star/n)^{-l}(T−t+η⋆​/n)−l degenerate as n→∞n\to\inftyn→∞, and the bare exponent α=η⋆/∥η∥<1\alpha=\eta_\star/\|\eta\|<1α=η⋆​/∥η∥<1 of the constrained problem is not enough to make the boundary terms vanish. Assumption 4.1, which upgrades the state to H1\mathcal H_1H1​, is what closes the gap. In addition, the aggregate rate μn\mu^nμn changes with nnn, so both the controls and the cost functional move at once.

Formalization scope

Time is R≥0\mathbb R_{\ge0}R≥0​; processes are real-valued functions of (t,ω)(t,\omega)(t,ω); WWW is the m=k+1m=k+1m=k+1-dimensional W~\widetilde WW with coordinate 000 the common noise. Stochastic integrals and BSDEs come from the published definition Peng1990.SMP.Stochastic. BSDEs on [0,T)[0,T)[0,T) are imposed on every [0,τ][0,\tau][0,τ], τ<T\tau<Tτ<T; AT=+∞A_T=+\inftyAT​=+∞ is lim⁡t↑TAt=+∞\lim_{t\uparrow T}A_t=+\inftylimt↑T​At​=+∞ a.s. Conditional expectations inside drivers are F0\mathbb F^0F0-progressive versions of integrable processes. Weighted norms are computed in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞]. The explicit readings are:

  • κmax⁡,η⋆,λ⋆,∥η∥\kappa_{\max},\eta_\star,\lambda_\star,\|\eta\|κmax​,η⋆​,λ⋆​,∥η∥ are essential bounds over dt⊗dPdt\otimes d\mathbb Pdt⊗dP; (2.4) is stated without division; "1/λ,1/η∈L∞1/\lambda,1/\eta\in L^\infty1/λ,1/η∈L∞" is a positive essential lower bound.
  • Assumption 2.3 is a hypothesis of every statement, including Lemma A.3 (the appendix assumes only its boundedness part).
  • Assumption 4.1 holds almost surely with the constant chosen before ω\omegaω (as restated on p. 32).
  • The penalty index is an integer n≥1n\ge1n≥1; constants in Lemma A.3 and Lemma 4.4 are chosen before nnn.
  • The class of AnA^nAn is S2×L2S^2\times L^2S2×L2 on [0,T][0,T][0,T] (not printed in Lemma A.3).
  • The penalized control set is LF2L^2_{\mathbb F}LF2​, with no terminal constraint.
  • Values are conditional essential infima given σ(X)\sigma(\mathcal X)σ(X).
  • The equilibria μn,μ∗\mu^n,\mu^*μn,μ∗ of Theorem 4.6 are defined through the FBSDE solutions, as in the proof; uniqueness of penalized equilibria is not claimed.
  • The solution of Proposition 2.8 includes the relation Y=AX+BY=AX+BY=AX+B on [0,T)[0,T)[0,T); "Theorem 2.8" on pp. 25–29 means Proposition 2.8.
  • L1L^1L1 convergence means ∫∣Vn−V∣ dP→0\int|V^n-V|\,d\mathbb P\to0∫∣Vn−V∣dP→0, not convergence of expectations.

A trivializing formalization would quantify over all solutions of the penalized MFG (claiming a uniqueness the paper does not state) or define VVV by a pointwise infimum over all controls (which is −∞-\infty−∞ or junk); both are ruled out above. Contributions toward BSDE comparison principles and quadratic BSDE well-posedness on this stochastic-integral layer are welcome and reusable.

Selected references

  • G. Fu, P. Graewe, U. Horst, A. Popier, A Mean Field Game of Optimal Portfolio Liquidation, Math. Oper. Res. 46(4), 2021; preprint arXiv:1804.04911v3. https://arxiv.org/abs/1804.04911
  • R. Almgren, N. Chriss, Optimal execution of portfolio transactions, Journal of Risk 3, 2001. https://doi.org/10.21314/JOR.2001.041
  • S. Ankirchner, M. Jeanblanc, T. Kruse, BSDEs with singular terminal condition and a control problem with constraints, SIAM J. Control Optim. 52(2):893–913, 2014 (reference [3] of the paper).
  • P. Graewe, U. Horst, E. Séré, Smooth solutions to portfolio liquidation problems under price-sensitive market impact, Stochastic Process. Appl. 128(3):979–1006, 2018 (reference [28] of the paper).
  • S. Peng, A general stochastic maximum principle for optimal control problems, SIAM J. Control Optim. 28(4), 1990. https://doi.org/10.1137/0328054
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Linear OptimizationMachine LearningOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Strong Mixed-Integer Programming Formulations for Trained Neural Networks 1: A ReLU Neuron over a Box Has an Ideal Formulation with One Binary Variable and the Exponential Family (6b)Research Paper

Why optimize over a trained ReLU neuron

A trained feed-forward neural network with ReLU activations, ReLU(v)=max⁡{0,v}\mathrm{ReLU}(v)=\max\{0,v\}ReLU(v)=max{0,v}, is a piecewise linear function of its input. Many tasks ask for an optimization over such a network with its weights held fixed: verifying that no small perturbation of an image changes its classification, finding adversarial examples, or embedding a learned model of demand or cost inside a decision problem ("predict, then optimize"). The standard way to solve such problems exactly is mixed-integer programming (MIP): each neuron is written as a small set of linear constraints with one binary variable, and the network is the composition of these neuron formulations. How strong each neuron formulation is decides how fast branch-and-bound can close the gap.

The formulation used in the literature up to 2018 is the big-M formulation. It is valid but weak. This mission formalizes the main result of Anderson, Huchette, Tjandraatmadja and Vielma, IPCO 2019 extended abstract (arXiv:1811.08359v2), which gives the strongest possible formulation of a single ReLU neuron that uses the original variables and one binary variable only.

Timeline. Big-M formulations of ReLU networks were used by several groups in 2017–2018 for verification and adversarial analysis (see §1.2 of the paper). Balas's disjunctive programming (1985, 1998) and the multiple choice formulation of piecewise linear functions (Vielma and Nemhauser, Math. Program. 2011) give an ideal formulation of the neuron that needs a copy of the input variables. Anderson et al. (2019) project out that copy and obtain the formulation (6) below; a longer journal version (Math. Program. 2020, with W. Ma) develops the analysis further, including interactions between neurons.

Setting

Fix η∈N\eta\in\mathbb Nη∈N, a weight vector w∈Rηw\in\mathbb R^\etaw∈Rη, a bias b∈Rb\in\mathbb Rb∈R, and bounds L,U∈RηL,U\in\mathbb R^\etaL,U∈Rη with Li<UiL_i<U_iLi​<Ui​ for every iii. The neuron computes ReLU(f(x))\mathrm{ReLU}(f(x))ReLU(f(x)) for the affine function f(x)=w⋅x+bf(x)=w\cdot x+bf(x)=w⋅x+b on the box [L,U]={x:L≤x≤U}[L,U]=\{x: L\le x\le U\}[L,U]={x:L≤x≤U}. Its graph is

gr⁡(ReLU∘f;[L,U])={(x,ReLU(f(x))):L≤x≤U}.\operatorname{gr}(\mathrm{ReLU}\circ f;[L,U])=\{(x,\mathrm{ReLU}(f(x))) : L\le x\le U\}.gr(ReLU∘f;[L,U])={(x,ReLU(f(x))):L≤x≤U}.

The sign-adjusted bounds are L˘i=Li\breve L_i=L_iL˘i​=Li​, U˘i=Ui\breve U_i=U_iU˘i​=Ui​ when wi≥0w_i\ge 0wi​≥0, and L˘i=Ui\breve L_i=U_iL˘i​=Ui​, U˘i=Li\breve U_i=L_iU˘i​=Li​ when wi<0w_i<0wi​<0. Then M+(f)=w⋅U˘+bM^+(f)=w\cdot\breve U+bM+(f)=w⋅U˘+b and M−(f)=w⋅L˘+bM^-(f)=w\cdot\breve L+bM−(f)=w⋅L˘+b are the maximum and minimum of fff on [L,U][L,U][L,U], and supp⁡(w)={i:wi≠0}\operatorname{supp}(w)=\{i: w_i\ne 0\}supp(w)={i:wi​=0}. Strict activity means M−(f)<0<M+(f)M^-(f)<0<M^+(f)M−(f)<0<M+(f): the neuron is neither always off nor always on. The paper assumes throughout that Li<UiL_i<U_iLi​<Ui​ and that strict activity holds.

A set RRR of points (x,y,z)(x,y,z)(x,y,z) with z∈[0,1]z\in[0,1]z∈[0,1], read together with the constraint z∈{0,1}z\in\{0,1\}z∈{0,1}, is a formulation of the graph if (x,y)(x,y)(x,y) lies on the graph exactly when (x,y,z)∈R(x,y,z)\in R(x,y,z)∈R for some z∈{0,1}z\in\{0,1\}z∈{0,1}; RRR is then its LP relaxation. The formulation is ideal if every extreme point of RRR has z∈{0,1}z\in\{0,1\}z∈{0,1}.

The big-M formulation (3) is y≥f(x)y\ge f(x)y≥f(x), y≤f(x)−M−(f)(1−z)y\le f(x)-M^-(f)(1-z)y≤f(x)−M−(f)(1−z), y≤M+(f)zy\le M^+(f)zy≤M+(f)z, (x,y,z)∈[L,U]×R≥0×{0,1}(x,y,z)\in[L,U]\times\mathbb R_{\ge0}\times\{0,1\}(x,y,z)∈[L,U]×R≥0​×{0,1}. The formulation of Proposition 1 is

y≥w⋅x+b(6a)y≤∑i∈Iwi(xi−L˘i(1−z))+(b+∑i∉IwiU˘i)z∀I⊆supp⁡(w)(6b)(x,y,z)∈[L,U]×R≥0×{0,1}.(6c)\begin{aligned} &y\ge w\cdot x+b &&(6a)\\ &y\le\sum_{i\in I}w_i\bigl(x_i-\breve L_i(1-z)\bigr)+\Bigl(b+\sum_{i\notin I}w_i\breve U_i\Bigr)z\qquad\forall I\subseteq\operatorname{supp}(w) &&(6b)\\ &(x,y,z)\in[L,U]\times\mathbb R_{\ge0}\times\{0,1\}. &&(6c) \end{aligned}​y≥w⋅x+by≤i∈I∑​wi​(xi​−L˘i​(1−z))+(b+i∈/I∑​wi​U˘i​)z∀I⊆supp(w)(x,y,z)∈[L,U]×R≥0​×{0,1}.​​(6a)(6b)(6c)​

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 1 (p. 6)

(6a)–(6c) is a formulation of gr⁡(ReLU∘f;[L,U]), and every extreme point of its LP relaxation has z∈{0,1}.\text{(6a)–(6c) is a formulation of }\operatorname{gr}(\mathrm{ReLU}\circ f;[L,U]),\ \text{and every extreme point of its LP relaxation has } z\in\{0,1\}.(6a)–(6c) is a formulation of gr(ReLU∘f;[L,U]), and every extreme point of its LP relaxation has z∈{0,1}.

Milestones (Appendix A.1 and §2.2)

  1. The multiple choice formulation (5), with copies x0,x1,y0,y1x^0,x^1,y^0,y^1x0,x1,y0,y1, has only integral zzz at extreme points in its lifted space and formulates the graph; projected to (x,y,z)(x,y,z)(x,y,z), its LP relaxation is the convex hull of its points with z∈{0,1}z\in\{0,1\}z∈{0,1} (§2.2, pp. 5–6).
  2. Projecting the copies out of the LP relaxation of (5) gives the linear system (7): (6a), (6b), a second exponential family (7c), and the bounds (7d) (App. A.1, p. 14).
  3. The family (7c) is implied by the other constraints (App. A.1, pp. 14–15).
  4. The LP relaxation of (6) is the convex hull of its points with z∈{0,1}z\in\{0,1\}z∈{0,1} (App. A.1, p. 14).

Companion results

  • M±(f)M^\pm(f)M±(f) are the maximum and minimum of fff on [L,U][L,U][L,U] (§1.3, p. 4).
  • Proposition 3 (p. 7): for (x^,y^,z^)∈[L,U]×R≥0×[0,1](\hat x,\hat y,\hat z)\in[L,U]\times\mathbb R_{\ge0}\times[0,1](x^,y^​,z^)∈[L,U]×R≥0​×[0,1], if some inequality of (6b) is violated, the one for I^={i∈supp⁡(w):wix^i<wi(L˘i(1−z^)+U˘iz^)}\hat I=\{i\in\operatorname{supp}(w): w_i\hat x_i<w_i(\breve L_i(1-\hat z)+\breve U_i\hat z)\}I^={i∈supp(w):wi​x^i​<wi​(L˘i​(1−z^)+U˘i​z^)} is the most violated.
  • The big-M formulation (3) is a formulation of the graph (p. 4); Examples 1 and 2 (p. 5) show that it is not ideal and that its gap grows like 12γη\tfrac12\gamma\eta21​γη; its inequalities (3b), (3c) are (6b) for I=supp⁡(w)I=\operatorname{supp}(w)I=supp(w) and I=∅I=\emptysetI=∅ (p. 7).

Significance

Proposition 1 says that the convex hull of the graph, lifted with one binary variable, is described by (6a), (6b) and the bounds, with no auxiliary continuous variables. Optimizing a linear function over the LP relaxation of (6) therefore gives the tightest convex relaxation available for a single neuron, and Proposition 3 gives a separation routine linear in η\etaη, so the exponential family can be added on demand to a big-M model. The paper's experiments (§3, not formalized) report that separating over (6b) solves smaller MNIST verification instances faster than Gurobi's default cut generation by a factor of 7.

The result is proved in the paper; nothing here is open. To our knowledge none of these statements has a machine-checked proof. The work this mission asks for is the formalization of the known proof: an ideality statement for the multiple choice formulation, a Fourier–Motzkin projection carried out for an arbitrary index set with general-sign weights, and the passage from a hull identity to integrality of extreme points.

Difficulty

The formulation half of Proposition 1 is a short case analysis on z∈{0,1}z\in\{0,1\}z∈{0,1}; the content is ideality. The obvious attempt, characterizing the extreme points of the LP relaxation of (6) directly, is impractical: the polytope is cut out by 2∣supp⁡(w)∣2^{|\operatorname{supp}(w)|}2∣supp(w)∣ inequalities, and showing that every point with fractional zzz is a proper convex combination of feasible points means handling all patterns of tight inequalities of (6b) at once. Ideality of the extended formulation (5) is classical and passes to its projection onto (x,y,z)(x,y,z)(x,y,z), but that only helps once the projection is known to be exactly the LP relaxation of (6): it has to be computed for an arbitrary index set, and every inequality it produces must be shown to be one of (6a), (6b), the bounds, or implied by them. Weights of both signs must be handled throughout: the page treats negative weights by a change of variables, and a formal development has to carry the sign-adjusted bounds L˘,U˘\breve L,\breve UL˘,U˘ through every step.

Formalization scope

Inputs x∈Rηx\in\mathbb R^\etax∈Rη are Fin η → ℝ, so indices are 0-based; points (x,y,z)(x,y,z)(x,y,z) are (Fin η → ℝ) × ℝ × ℝ. A formulation is encoded by its LP relaxation RRR (with z∈[0,1]z\in[0,1]z∈[0,1]) and the predicate "(x,y)∈S(x,y)\in S(x,y)∈S iff (x,y,z)∈R(x,y,z)\in R(x,y,z)∈R for some z∈{0,1}z\in\{0,1\}z∈{0,1}"; ideality is ∀ p ∈ Set.extremePoints ℝ R, p.2.2 = 0 ∨ p.2.2 = 1. M±(f)M^\pm(f)M±(f) are defined by their closed forms, and a companion theorem proves that they are the maximum and minimum. In (6b) and (7c), "i∉Ii\notin Ii∈/I" ranges over all indices outside III, zero weights included. The system (7) is stated with L˘,U˘\breve L,\breve UL˘,U˘, i.e. after undoing the page's substitution x~i=−xi\tilde x_i=-x_ix~i​=−xi​; for w≥0w\ge 0w≥0 it is the page's display. The LP relaxation of (5) is represented both in its lifted space and projected to (x,y,z)(x,y,z)(x,y,z), with the copies quantified existentially in the latter, and constant bbb is scaled by 1−z1-z1−z in (5b) and by zzz in (5c).

The goal carries both standing assumptions of §1.3 (Li<UiL_i<U_iLi​<Ui​ and strict activity) and nothing else. Milestones that do not need strict activity omit it, which makes them stronger. Example 2 includes the page's γ=0\gamma=0γ=0 boundary: although its box then violates Li<UiL_i<U_iLi​<Ui​ when η>0\eta>0η>0, the example's three stated claims remain true.

Ideality is a statement about the LP relaxation, not about the set with z∈{0,1}z\in\{0,1\}z∈{0,1}: applied to the latter it would hold trivially, and a goal stating only that (6) is a formulation would omit the result's content. Both are ruled out by the statement of the goal.

A complete development needs: extreme points and convex hulls of polyhedra in product spaces (Mathlib), the hull of a union of two polytopes as a projection, Fourier–Motzkin elimination over an arbitrary finite index set, and finite-sum manipulations over subsets of supp⁡(w)\operatorname{supp}(w)supp(w). The Fourier–Motzkin and disjunctive-hull lemmas are reusable well beyond this mission; contributions of either are welcome, as are proofs of the companion results.

Source: the IPCO 2019 extended abstract, arXiv:1811.08359v2 (28 Feb 2019); all labels and pages refer to that version.

Selected references

  • R. Anderson, J. Huchette, C. Tjandraatmadja, J. P. Vielma, Strong mixed-integer programming formulations for trained neural networks, IPCO 2019 (LNCS 11480), extended abstract. arXiv:1811.08359v2
  • R. Anderson, J. Huchette, W. Ma, C. Tjandraatmadja, J. P. Vielma, Strong mixed-integer programming formulations for trained neural networks, Mathematical Programming 183 (2020) 3–39. doi:10.1007/s10107-020-01474-5, arXiv:1811.01988
  • J. P. Vielma, G. Nemhauser, Modeling disjunctive constraints with a logarithmic number of binary variables and constraints, Mathematical Programming 128 (2011) 49–72. doi:10.1007/s10107-009-0295-4
  • E. Balas, Disjunctive programming and a hierarchy of relaxations for discrete optimization problems, SIAM Journal on Algebraic and Discrete Methods 6(3) (1985) 466–486. doi:10.1137/0606047
  • E. Balas, Disjunctive programming: properties of the convex hull of feasible points, Discrete Applied Mathematics 89 (1998) 3–44. doi:10.1016/S0166-218X(98)00136-X
  • J. P. Vielma, Mixed integer linear programming formulation techniques, SIAM Review 57(1) (2015) 3–57. doi:10.1137/130915303
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Control TheoryProbabilityStochastic Systems·Captain: mikedeng1

A Mean Field Game of Optimal Portfolio Liquidation 1: Under Weak Interaction the Liquidation Mean Field Game Has a Unique Equilibrium, Given by a Singular Conditional Mean-Field FBSDEResearch Paper

Motivation

Large traders who must unwind a position by a deadline face a trade-off between trading fast, which moves prices against them, and trading slowly, which exposes them to price risk. When many traders liquidate at once, each one's execution price also depends on the aggregate selling rate of the others. Fu, Graewe, Horst and Popier (arXiv:1804.04911) model this as a mean field game (MFG) with common noise and a hard liquidation constraint: every position must be zero at the terminal time TTT. Single-player liquidation with this constraint leads to backward equations with singular terminal values (Ankirchner, Jeanblanc and Kruse, SIAM J. Control Optim. 2014; Graewe, Horst and Séré, Stoch. Proc. Appl. 2018). Earlier MFG models of execution (Cardaliaguet and Lehalle, Math. Financ. Econ. 2018; Carmona and Lacker, Ann. Appl. Probab. 2015) allow no liquidation constraint. This mission formalizes the paper's first main result: the constrained game has a unique equilibrium under a weak-interaction condition.

Setting

Fix T>0T>0T>0 and a probability space carrying an mmm-dimensional Brownian motion W~=(W0,W)\widetilde W=(W^0,W)W=(W0,W), where W0W^0W0 is the one-dimensional common noise, and an initial portfolio X∈L2\mathcal X\in L^2X∈L2 independent of W~\widetilde WW. Let F0\mathbb F^0F0 be the filtration of W0W^0W0 and F\mathbb FF that of (X,W0,W)(\mathcal X,W^0,W)(X,W0,W), both augmented by null sets. The cost coefficients are bounded nonnegative F\mathbb FF-progressive processes κ\kappaκ (interaction), λ\lambdaλ (risk aversion) and η\etaη (temporary impact), with λ,η\lambda,\etaλ,η bounded away from zero.

A player's trading rate ξ\xiξ produces the position Xtξ=X−∫0tξsdsX^\xi_t=\mathcal X-\int_0^t\xi_sdsXtξ​=X−∫0t​ξs​ds. The admissible strategies are AF(X)={ξ∈LF2:∫0Tξsds=X}\mathcal A_{\mathbb F}(\mathcal X)=\{\xi\in L^2_{\mathbb F}:\int_0^T\xi_sds=\mathcal X\}AF​(X)={ξ∈LF2​:∫0T​ξs​ds=X}. Given an F0\mathbb F^0F0-progressive aggregate rate μ\muμ, the cost is

J(X,ξ;μ)=E[∫0T(κsXsξμs+ηsξs2+λs(Xsξ)2)ds ∣ X],J(\mathcal X,\xi;\mu)=\mathbb E\Big[\int_0^T\big(\kappa_sX^\xi_s\mu_s+\eta_s\xi_s^2+\lambda_s(X^\xi_s)^2\big)ds\ \Big|\ \mathcal X\Big],J(X,ξ;μ)=E[∫0T​(κs​Xsξ​μs​+ηs​ξs2​+λs​(Xsξ​)2)ds ​ X],

and V(X;μ)V(\mathcal X;\mu)V(X;μ) is its essential infimum over AF(X)\mathcal A_{\mathbb F}(\mathcal X)AF​(X). A process μ\muμ solves the MFG (1.7) if some optimal strategy ξ∗\xi^*ξ∗ given μ\muμ satisfies μt=E[ξt∗∣Ft0]\mu_t=\mathbb E[\xi^*_t\mid\mathcal F^0_t]μt​=E[ξt∗​∣Ft0​] for a.e. ttt.

The equilibrium is described by the conditional mean-field FBSDE (2.3):

Xt=X−∫0tYs2ηsds,XT=0,−dYt=(κt E[Yt2ηt∣Ft0]+2λtXt)dt−Zt dW~t  on [0,T).X_t=\mathcal X-\int_0^t\frac{Y_s}{2\eta_s}ds,\quad X_T=0,\quad -dY_t=\Big(\kappa_t\,\mathbb E\Big[\frac{Y_t}{2\eta_t}\Big|\mathcal F^0_t\Big]+2\lambda_tX_t\Big)dt-Z_t\,d\widetilde W_t\ \ \text{on }[0,T).Xt​=X−∫0t​2ηs​Ys​​ds,XT​=0,−dYt​=(κt​E[2ηt​Yt​​​Ft0​]+2λt​Xt​)dt−Zt​dWt​  on [0,T).

Solutions are sought in weighted spaces: Y∈HlY\in\mathcal H_lY∈Hl​ if Esup⁡t≤T∣Yt/(T−t)l∣2<∞\mathbb E\sup_{t\le T}|Y_t/(T-t)^l|^2<\inftyEsupt≤T​∣Yt​/(T−t)l∣2<∞, and Y∈MlY\in\mathcal M_lY∈Ml​ if (T−t)−l∣Yt∣(T-t)^{-l}|Y_t|(T−t)−l∣Yt​∣ is essentially bounded. The weak-interaction condition (Assumption 2.3) asks for θ>0\theta>0θ>0 with κmax⁡/(4η⋆)<θ<4λ⋆/κmax⁡\kappa_{\max}/(4\eta_\star)<\theta<4\lambda_\star/\kappa_{\max}κmax​/(4η⋆​)<θ<4λ⋆​/κmax​, and α:=η⋆/∥η∥∈(0,1]\alpha:=\eta_\star/\|\eta\|\in(0,1]α:=η⋆​/∥η∥∈(0,1]. The decoupling Y=AX+BY=AX+BY=AX+B uses the solution AAA of the singular Riccati BSDE −dAt=(2λt−At2/(2ηt))dt−ZtAdW~t-dA_t=(2\lambda_t-A_t^2/(2\eta_t))dt-Z^A_td\widetilde W_t−dAt​=(2λt​−At2​/(2ηt​))dt−ZtA​dWt​, AT=+∞A_T=+\inftyAT​=+∞.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 2.4

Under Assumption 2.3 the FBSDE (2.3) has a unique solution

(X,Y,Z)∈Hα×LF2([0,T])×LF2([0,T−];Rm);(X,Y,Z)\in\mathcal H_\alpha\times L^2_{\mathbb F}([0,T])\times L^2_{\mathbb F}([0,T-];\mathbb R^m);(X,Y,Z)∈Hα​×LF2​([0,T])×LF2​([0,T−];Rm);

ξ∗=Y/(2η)\xi^*=Y/(2\eta)ξ∗=Y/(2η) is optimal, XXX is the optimal position, μt∗=E[Yt/(2ηt)∣Ft0]\mu^*_t=\mathbb E[Y_t/(2\eta_t)\mid\mathcal F^0_t]μt∗​=E[Yt​/(2ηt​)∣Ft0​] is the unique solution of the MFG (1.7), and

V(X;μ∗)=12A0X2+12B0X+12E[∫0TκsXs∗μs∗ds ∣ X].V(\mathcal X;\mu^*)=\tfrac12A_0\mathcal X^2+\tfrac12B_0\mathcal X+\tfrac12\mathbb E\Big[\int_0^T\kappa_sX^*_s\mu^*_sds\ \Big|\ \mathcal X\Big].V(X;μ∗)=21​A0​X2+21​B0​X+21​E[∫0T​κs​Xs∗​μs∗​ds ​ X].

Milestones

The milestones follow the paper's proof: Fact 2.2 on the weighted spaces; Lemma A.1, existence and uniqueness of AAA with the bounds (A.1), and A∈M−1A\in\mathcal M_{-1}A∈M−1​; the decay estimate (2.9), exp⁡(−∫rsAu/(2ηu)du)≤((T−s)/(T−r))α\exp(-\int_r^sA_u/(2\eta_u)du)\le((T-s)/(T-r))^\alphaexp(−∫rs​Au​/(2ηu​)du)≤((T−s)/(T−r))α; Lemma 2.5, an a priori estimate for the decoupled system (2.11) with homotopy parameter p∈[0,1]\mathfrak p\in[0,1]p∈[0,1]; Lemma 2.6, explicit unique solvability at p=0\mathfrak p=0p=0; Lemma 2.7, the continuation step p→p+d\mathfrak p\to\mathfrak p+\mathfrak dp→p+d; Proposition 2.8, unique solvability of (2.3) with (2.10) and a norm bound; the boundary limit (2.15); and Proposition 2.9, optimality, the equilibrium property and the value formula.

Significance

The theorem gives a complete equilibrium description for constrained liquidation with many players and stochastic, partially common market data: the equilibrium rate is the conditional expectation of the decoupled feedback rate given the common noise, and its value is explicit in terms of the Riccati solution. It is the basis of the paper's other two results, the O(N−1/2)O(N^{-1/2})O(N−1/2)-Nash property of the equilibrium in the NNN-player game (Theorem 3.3) and the approximation by penalized games (Theorem 4.6), which are separate missions in this series.

The result is proved in the paper; none of it is machine-checked. A formal development would contain the first formal treatment of BSDEs with singular terminal value and of a conditional (common-noise) mean-field FBSDE. Shorter proofs of individual steps, in particular of the a priori estimate and the continuation step, are welcome.

Difficulty

The obvious approach fails at the terminal time. Standard FBSDE theory requires a terminal condition for YYY; here only XT=0X_T=0XT​=0 is known, and YTY_TYT​ is undetermined. The decoupling coefficient AAA blows up like (T−t)−1(T-t)^{-1}(T−t)−1, so the driver of the equation for BBB is singular, and the classical monotonicity method of Hu–Peng and Peng–Wu, applied to (X,B)(X,B)(X,B) in unweighted spaces, does not close. The paper works instead with weighted norms that encode the rate at which XXX and BBB vanish at TTT, and runs the continuation on the triple (X,B,Y)(X,B,Y)(X,B,Y). The mean-field term is a conditional expectation given the common-noise filtration, not an expectation, so it remains random and has to be controlled pathwise in the weighted norms.

Formalization scope

Time is ℝ≥0; processes are real valued and W~\widetilde WW has m=k+1m=k+1m=k+1 coordinates, coordinate 000 being W0W^0W0. The Itô calculus is the published definition Peng1990.SMP.Stochastic (standard Brownian motion, LF2L^2_{\mathbb F}LF2​, Itô integrals, BSDEs in integrated form). The explicit choices:

  • Filtrations are augmented by the measurable null sets, and F\mathbb FF contains σ(X)\sigma(\mathcal X)σ(X).
  • κmax⁡,η⋆,λ⋆,∥η∥\kappa_{\max},\eta_\star,\lambda_\star,\|\eta\|κmax​,η⋆​,λ⋆​,∥η∥ are essential bounds over dt⊗dPdt\otimes d\mathbb Pdt⊗dP. Condition (2.4) is written without division, and "1/λ,1/η1/\lambda,1/\eta1/λ,1/η bounded" as positive essential lower bounds.
  • Assumption 2.3 is a hypothesis of every statement of §2, as the paper's standing assumption. Lemma A.1 (appendix) assumes only what §A assumes: λ,η\lambda,\etaλ,η progressive, nonnegative and bounded, and 1/η1/\eta1/η bounded.
  • Backward equations on [0,T)[0,T)[0,T) are imposed on every [0,τ][0,\tau][0,τ], τ<T\tau<Tτ<T. AT=∞A_T=\inftyAT​=∞ means At→+∞A_t\to+\inftyAt​→+∞ as t↑Tt\uparrow Tt↑T a.s.
  • Weighted norms are computed in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞], with the weight (T−t)−l(T-t)^{-l}(T−t)−l in ℝ≥0∞.
  • Every conditional expectation E[⋅∣Ft0]\mathbb E[\cdot\mid\mathcal F^0_t]E[⋅∣Ft0​] in an equation is evaluated through a progressive version, and its argument is required to be integrable.
  • The value is an essential infimum of conditional costs.
  • The relation Y=AX+BY=AX+BY=AX+B is part of the solution concept of (2.11): without it, YYY is determined only up to an additive F0\mathcal F_0F0​-measurable constant.
  • The constant of Proposition 2.8 is uniform over initial portfolios in an L2L^2L2 ball, for fixed coefficients.
  • Fact 2.2's product rule assumes paths of K1K_1K1​ continuous on [0,T)[0,T)[0,T), and its claim that KT=0K_T=0KT​=0 for K∈MlK\in\mathcal M_lK∈Ml​ is not stated. Both printed versions fail under the essential-supremum norm.

The interaction term must stay conditioned on Ft0\mathcal F^0_tFt0​: conditioning on Ft\mathcal F_tFt​ makes it Yt/(2ηt)Y_t/(2\eta_t)Yt​/(2ηt​) itself and collapses the game. The constraint XT=0X_T=0XT​=0 and the admissibility condition ∫0Tξ=X\int_0^T\xi=\mathcal X∫0T​ξ=X cannot be dropped either. The degenerate instance κ≡0\kappa\equiv0κ≡0 satisfies all hypotheses but decouples the game.

A complete development needs the following, all reusable beyond this mission: martingale representation for the augmented filtration F\mathbb FF; existence of progressive versions of conditional expectation processes; Doob's inequality on [0,τ][0,\tau][0,τ]; and linear BSDE solution formulas.

Selected references

  • G. Fu, P. Graewe, U. Horst, A. Popier, A Mean Field Game of Optimal Portfolio Liquidation, arXiv:1804.04911v3, 2021; Math. Oper. Res. 46(4), 2021. https://arxiv.org/abs/1804.04911
  • S. Ankirchner, M. Jeanblanc, T. Kruse, BSDEs with singular terminal condition and a control problem with constraints, SIAM J. Control Optim. 52(2), 2014. https://doi.org/10.1137/130913411
  • P. Graewe, U. Horst, E. Séré, Smooth solutions to portfolio liquidation problems under price-sensitive market impact, Stoch. Proc. Appl. 128(3), 2018. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.spa.2017.07.002
  • P. Cardaliaguet, C.-A. Lehalle, Mean field game of controls and an application to trade crowding, Math. Financ. Econ. 12, 2018. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11579-017-0206-z
  • R. Carmona, D. Lacker, A probabilistic weak formulation of mean field games and applications, Ann. Appl. Probab. 25(3), 2015. https://doi.org/10.1214/14-AAP1020
  • Y. Hu, S. Peng, Solution of forward-backward stochastic differential equations, Probab. Theory Related Fields 103, 1995. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01204214
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Algorithmic Game TheoryControl TheoryProbability+1·Captain: mikedeng1

A Mean Field Game of Optimal Portfolio Liquidation 3: The Mean-Field Equilibrium Strategies Form an O(1/√N)-Nash Equilibrium of the N-Player Liquidation GameResearch Paper

Motivation

A trader who must sell a large position within a fixed horizon faces a trade-off: selling fast moves the price against her (temporary price impact), selling slowly exposes her to price risk. Since Almgren and Chriss, this optimal liquidation problem has been studied as a stochastic control problem with a terminal state constraint: the remaining position must be zero at the horizon TTT. When many traders liquidate at the same time, each trader's sales also depress the price that the others receive (permanent price impact), and the problem becomes a game.

Fu, Graewe, Horst and Popier (arXiv:1804.04911v3) study this game in the mean-field limit. Their §2 constructs a mean-field equilibrium through a singular conditional mean-field FBSDE. Their §3, the subject of this mission, justifies the limit: the strategies computed from the mean field game are an approximate Nash equilibrium of the finite game with NNN traders, with an error of order 1/N1/\sqrt N1/N​. Without such a result, the mean-field equilibrium describes a model nobody plays; with it, the equilibrium is a usable approximation for large but finite markets.

The approximation of NNN-player games by mean field games goes back to Huang, Malhamé and Caines (2006) and Lasry and Lions (2007); Carmona and Delarue (SIAM J. Control Optim. 51, 2013) proved an εN\varepsilon_NεN​-Nash property for a McKean–Vlasov class with state interaction and a rate N−1/(d+4)N^{-1/(d+4)}N−1/(d+4). The present game differs in three respects: players interact through their controls (the average trading rate), there is a common noise observed by all, and each player's state must reach zero at time TTT.

Setting

A single probability space carries a one-dimensional Brownian motion W0W^0W0 (the common noise, which drives the benchmark price and is observed by every player), for each player iii a kkk-dimensional Brownian motion WiW^iWi (the private noise), and i.i.d. initial portfolios Xi\mathcal X^iXi with law ν\nuν; all of these are mutually independent. Player iii observes Fi\mathbb F^iFi, Fti=σ(Xi,Ws0,Wsi, s≤t)\mathcal F^i_t=\sigma(\mathcal X^i,W^0_s,W^i_s,\ s\le t)Fti​=σ(Xi,Ws0​,Wsi​, s≤t), and chooses a trading rate ξi\xi^iξi; her position is Xti=Xi−∫0tξsi dsX^i_t=\mathcal X^i-\int_0^t\xi^i_s\,dsXti​=Xi−∫0t​ξsi​ds and must satisfy XTi=0X^i_T=0XTi​=0. Given the profile ξ⃗=(ξ1,…,ξN)\vec\xi=(\xi^1,\dots,\xi^N)ξ​=(ξ1,…,ξN), her conditional cost is

JN,i(ξ⃗)=E[∫0T(κtiN∑j=1NξtjXti+ηti(ξti)2+λti(Xti)2)dt ∣ Xi],J^{N,i}(\vec\xi)=\mathbb E\Big[\int_0^T\Big(\frac{\kappa^i_t}{N}\sum_{j=1}^N\xi^j_tX^i_t+\eta^i_t(\xi^i_t)^2+\lambda^i_t(X^i_t)^2\Big)dt\ \Big|\ \mathcal X^i\Big],JN,i(ξ​)=E[∫0T​(Nκti​​j=1∑N​ξtj​Xti​+ηti​(ξti​)2+λti​(Xti​)2)dt ​ Xi],

where κi\kappa^iκi (permanent impact), ηi\eta^iηi (temporary impact) and λi\lambda^iλi (risk aversion) are nonnegative bounded processes. Under Assumption 3.1 they are the same deterministic measurable functionals κ,η,λ\kappa,\eta,\lambdaκ,η,λ of (t,Xi,W⋅∧ti,W⋅∧t0)(t,\mathcal X^i,W^i_{\cdot\wedge t},W^0_{\cdot\wedge t})(t,Xi,W⋅∧ti​,W⋅∧t0​) for every player, so the players are statistically identical.

In the mean field game, the average 1N∑jξj\frac1N\sum_j\xi^jN1​∑j​ξj is replaced by a process μ\muμ adapted to the common-noise filtration F0\mathbb F^0F0, and an equilibrium is a μ∗\mu^*μ∗ with μt∗=E[ξt∗∣Ft0]\mu^*_t=\mathbb E[\xi^*_t\mid\mathcal F^0_t]μt∗​=E[ξt∗​∣Ft0​] for the representative player's best response ξ∗\xi^*ξ∗. The paper characterizes it through the FBSDE (2.3),

dXt=−Yt2ηtdt,−dYt=(κt E[Yt2ηt∣Ft0]+2λtXt)dt−Zt dW~t,X0=X, XT=0,dX_t=-\frac{Y_t}{2\eta_t}dt,\qquad -dY_t=\Big(\kappa_t\,\mathbb E\Big[\frac{Y_t}{2\eta_t}\Big|\mathcal F^0_t\Big]+2\lambda_tX_t\Big)dt-Z_t\,d\widetilde W_t,\qquad X_0=\mathcal X,\ X_T=0,dXt​=−2ηt​Yt​​dt,−dYt​=(κt​E[2ηt​Yt​​​Ft0​]+2λt​Xt​)dt−Zt​dWt​,X0​=X, XT​=0,

with W~=(W0,W)\widetilde W=(W^0,W)W=(W0,W); the optimal rate is ξ∗=Y/(2η)\xi^*=Y/(2\eta)ξ∗=Y/(2η). Player iii's mean-field strategy ξ∗,i=Yi/(2ηi)\xi^{*,i}=Y^i/(2\eta^i)ξ∗,i=Yi/(2ηi) comes from the same FBSDE with her own data.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3.3

For a positive function MMM with ψ≤M\psi\le Mψ≤M, where ψ(Xi)=E[∫0T∣ξt∗,i∣2dt∣Xi]\psi(\mathcal X^i)=\mathbb E[\int_0^T|\xi^{*,i}_t|^2dt\mid\mathcal X^i]ψ(Xi)=E[∫0T​∣ξt∗,i​∣2dt∣Xi], and admissible sets Ai={ξ∈AFi(Xi):E[∫0T∣ξt∣2dt∣Xi]≤M(Xi)}\mathcal A^i=\{\xi\in\mathcal A_{\mathbb F^i}(\mathcal X^i):\mathbb E[\int_0^T|\xi_t|^2dt\mid\mathcal X^i]\le M(\mathcal X^i)\}Ai={ξ∈AFi​(Xi):E[∫0T​∣ξt​∣2dt∣Xi]≤M(Xi)}, there is a function ggg, independent of iii and NNN, with

JN,i(ξ⃗∗)≤JN,i(ξi,ξ∗,−i)+g(Xi)Nfor all N≥1, 1≤i≤N, ξi∈Ai.J^{N,i}(\vec\xi^*)\le J^{N,i}(\xi^i,\xi^{*,-i})+\frac{g(\mathcal X^i)}{\sqrt N}\qquad\text{for all }N\ge1,\ 1\le i\le N,\ \xi^i\in\mathcal A^i .JN,i(ξ​∗)≤JN,i(ξi,ξ∗,−i)+N​g(Xi)​for all N≥1, 1≤i≤N, ξi∈Ai.

The goal asserts only the shape of the bound, not its constant.

Milestones

  1. Lemma 3.2: one measurable map Φ\PhiΦ gives (Xi,Yi,∫0⋅Zi)=Φ(Xi,Wi,W0)(X^i,Y^i,\int_0^\cdot Z^i)=\Phi(\mathcal X^i,W^i,W^0)(Xi,Yi,∫0⋅​Zi)=Φ(Xi,Wi,W0) for every player, and ξ∗,i=ϕ(Xi,W0,Wi)\xi^{*,i}=\phi(\mathcal X^i,W^0,W^i)ξ∗,i=ϕ(Xi,W0,Wi) (3.1).
  2. (3.2): a single μ∗\mu^*μ∗ with μt∗=E[ξt∗,i∣Ft0]\mu^*_t=\mathbb E[\xi^{*,i}_t\mid\mathcal F^0_t]μt∗​=E[ξt∗,i​∣Ft0​] for every iii.
  3. (3.3): E∫0T∣ξt∗,i∣2dt≤C\mathbb E\int_0^T|\xi^{*,i}_t|^2dt\le CE∫0T​∣ξt∗,i​∣2dt≤C uniformly in iii.
  4. (3.5): E[∫0T(μt∗−1N∑jξt∗,j)2dt∣Xi]≤2(M(Xi)+(2N−1)C)/N2\mathbb E[\int_0^T(\mu^*_t-\frac1N\sum_j\xi^{*,j}_t)^2dt\mid\mathcal X^i]\le 2(M(\mathcal X^i)+(2N-1)C)/N^2E[∫0T​(μt∗​−N1​∑j​ξt∗,j​)2dt∣Xi]≤2(M(Xi)+(2N−1)C)/N2.
  5. The bounds on I1I_1I1​ and I2I_2I2​ (p. 24): the two differences of conditional costs into which the proof splits JN,i(ξ,ξ∗,−i)−JN,i(ξ⃗∗)J^{N,i}(\xi,\xi^{*,-i})-J^{N,i}(\vec\xi^*)JN,i(ξ,ξ∗,−i)−JN,i(ξ​∗) are O(1/N)O(1/\sqrt N)O(1/N​).

Significance

The result turns the mean-field equilibrium of §2 into a statement about the finite market: when all NNN traders use their mean-field strategies, a trader who deviates can save at most g(Xi)/Ng(\mathcal X^i)/\sqrt Ng(Xi)/N​ in conditional expected cost. The error bound depends on the trader's own initial position only through M(Xi)M(\mathcal X^i)M(Xi), and the rate 1/N1/\sqrt N1/N​ is dimension-free, in contrast with the N−1/(d+4)N^{-1/(d+4)}N−1/(d+4) rates of state-interaction games, because the interaction runs through the empirical mean of the controls rather than through an empirical measure.

The paper's proof of Theorem 3.3 is short but rests on several facts it states without proof: the Yamada–Watanabe-type Lemma 3.2 (whose proof is referred to other papers), the identification (3.2) of a common conditional mean, and the moment bound (3.3) attributed to Proposition 2.8. This mission makes each of these a separate machine-checkable statement. As far as we know, none of these results, nor any optimal-liquidation mean field game, has a machine-checked proof.

Difficulty

The estimate (3.5) is a law-of-large-numbers bound for the average of NNN processes that are not independent: all of them depend on the common noise W0W^0W0. The obvious argument, expanding the square and using independence, fails as stated; the cross terms vanish only conditionally on W0W^0W0, and only once one knows that every ξ∗,j\xi^{*,j}ξ∗,j is the same measurable functional of (Xj,W0,Wj)(\mathcal X^j,W^0,W^j)(Xj,W0,Wj). That is Lemma 3.2, a Yamada–Watanabe-type statement for a singular FBSDE with a conditional mean-field term, which needs strong uniqueness of the FBSDE in the class Hα×L2×L2([0,T−])\mathcal H_\alpha\times L^2\times L^2([0,T-])Hα​×L2×L2([0,T−]) and is the main technical step. The terminal constraint XT=0X_T=0XT​=0 makes the backward component singular at TTT (YYY blows up like X/(T−t)X/(T-t)X/(T−t)), so standard Lipschitz FBSDE theory does not apply. Finally, the deviation ξ\xiξ is constrained only through a conditional second-moment bound MMM, and the comparison with the mean-field cost uses the optimality of ξ∗,i\xi^{*,i}ξ∗,i (Proposition 2.9) against μ∗\mu^*μ∗.

Formalization scope

Everything is stated on one probability space carrying all players, with players indexed by N\mathbb NN; the NNN-player game uses players i<Ni<Ni<N (the paper's 1,…,N1,\dots,N1,…,N, shifted by one). Time is R≥0\mathbb R_{\ge0}R≥0​ and the processes are real valued. Choices made explicit:

  • Assumption 2.3 for every player is a hypothesis of every theorem: the paper states it "throughout" (p. 8), and the proof of Theorem 3.3 uses Propositions 2.8 and 2.9, which need it. Its constants κmax⁡,η⋆,λ⋆,∥η∥\kappa_{\max},\eta_\star,\lambda_\star,\|\eta\|κmax​,η⋆​,λ⋆​,∥η∥ are essential bounds over [0,T]×Ω[0,T]\times\Omega[0,T]×Ω; "1/λ,1/η∈L∞1/\lambda,1/\eta\in L^\infty1/λ,1/η∈L∞" is a positive essential lower bound.
  • The equilibrium processes (Xi,Yi,Zi)(X^i,Y^i,Z^i)(Xi,Yi,Zi) are hypotheses: solutions of (2.3) for player iii's data in the class of Theorem 2.4. ξ∗,i\xi^{*,i}ξ∗,i is defined as Yi/(2ηi)Y^i/(2\eta^i)Yi/(2ηi), never through ϕ\phiϕ.
  • Conditioning on Xi=xi\mathcal X^i=x^iXi=xi is conditioning on σ(Xi)\sigma(\mathcal X^i)σ(Xi); every conclusion holds almost surely, i.e. for ν\nuν-a.e. xix^ixi. "ψ≤M\psi\le Mψ≤M" is the a.s. inequality of conditional second moments, and MMM is assumed measurable.
  • ggg is quantified before NNN and iii. A statement in which ggg may depend on NNN is trivially true and is ruled out.
  • Filtrations are augmented by null sets. Each conditional expectation E[ ⋅∣Ft0]\mathbb E[\,\cdot\mid\mathcal F^0_t]E[⋅∣Ft0​] is evaluated through a progressive version of an integrable argument. BSDEs on [0,T)[0,T)[0,T) are imposed on every [0,τ][0,\tau][0,τ], τ<T\tau<Tτ<T.
  • Lemma 3.2's path spaces carry the product σ-algebra; its identities hold for each ttt almost surely.
  • The paper's bound on I2I_2I2​ is stated for ∣I2∣|I_2|∣I2​∣, which is what its Cauchy–Schwarz step gives and what the proof needs.

The development reuses the Itô-calculus definitions of Peng1990.SMP.Stochastic (standard Brownian motion, LF2L^2_{\mathbb F}LF2​, Itô integrals, BSDEs). Contributions useful beyond this mission: conditional independence given a common noise for functionals of independent inputs, a Yamada–Watanabe argument for FBSDEs, and conditional Cauchy–Schwarz bounds for time integrals. Proofs of any milestone, and of the facts from §2 they rely on, are welcome.

Selected references

  • G. Fu, P. Graewe, U. Horst, A. Popier, A Mean Field Game of Optimal Portfolio Liquidation, arXiv:1804.04911v3, 2021; Math. Oper. Res. 46(4), 2021. https://arxiv.org/abs/1804.04911
  • R. Almgren, N. Chriss, Optimal execution of portfolio transactions, J. Risk 3(2), 2001. https://doi.org/10.21314/JOR.2001.041
  • M. Huang, R. P. Malhamé, P. E. Caines, Large population stochastic dynamic games: closed-loop McKean–Vlasov systems and the Nash certainty equivalence principle, Commun. Inf. Syst. 6(3), 2006. https://doi.org/10.4310/CIS.2006.v6.n3.a5
  • J.-M. Lasry, P.-L. Lions, Mean field games, Jpn. J. Math. 2, 2007. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11537-007-0657-8
  • R. Carmona, F. Delarue, Probabilistic analysis of mean-field games, SIAM J. Control Optim. 51(4), 2013. https://doi.org/10.1137/120883499
  • S. Peng, A general stochastic maximum principle for optimal control problems, SIAM J. Control Optim. 28(4), 1990. https://doi.org/10.1137/0328054
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Algorithmic Game TheoryOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Supplier Centrality and Auditing Priority in Socially Responsible Supply Chains I: Under Downstream Competition No Buyer Audits the Common Supplier in Any EquilibriumResearch Paper

Motivation

Brands are routinely held responsible for the labour and environmental practices of their suppliers. A brand that is linked in public to a non-compliant supplier loses consumer willingness to pay, and firms answer this risk by auditing their suppliers. Supply networks are not trees, however: one supplier often serves several competing brands. Chen, Qi and Dawande (SSRN 2889889, Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, 2020) ask how the position of a supplier in such a network, and in particular its centrality (the number of buyers it serves), affects which suppliers get audited when buyers decide on their own, and when they audit jointly.

This mission formalizes the paper's answer for unilateral auditing by competing buyers (Sec. 4.2, Proposition 2). A companion mission treats joint auditing (Proposition 3).

Setting

Two buyers B1,B2B_1, B_2B1​,B2​ source from three suppliers: an independent supplier SiS_iSi​ for each buyer BiB_iBi​, and a common supplier ScS_cSc​ that serves both. Each supplier complies with social-responsibility standards with probability e∈(0,1)e \in (0,1)e∈(0,1). In stage 1, buyer BiB_iBi​ chooses an auditing effort eii∈[0,1]e_{ii} \in [0,1]eii​∈[0,1] on SiS_iSi​ and eic∈[0,1]e_{ic} \in [0,1]eic​∈[0,1] on ScS_cSc​, and audits at most one of them: eii eic=0e_{ii}\,e_{ic} = 0eii​eic​=0. Auditing a supplier with effort x>0x > 0x>0 costs K+a2x2K + \tfrac a2 x^2K+2a​x2, with a fixed cost K≥0K \ge 0K≥0 and a>0a > 0a>0; effort 000 means no audit and costs nothing.

A non-compliant supplier that passes the audits is discovered in public with probability r∈(0,1]r \in (0,1]r∈(0,1]. Hence SiS_iSi​ causes damage to BiB_iBi​ with probability λI(eii)=r(1−e)(1−eii)\lambda_I(e_{ii}) = r(1-e)(1-e_{ii})λI​(eii​)=r(1−e)(1−eii​), and ScS_cSc​ causes damage to both buyers with probability λC(e1c,e2c)=r(1−e)(1−e1c)(1−e2c)\lambda_C(e_{1c},e_{2c}) = r(1-e)(1-e_{1c})(1-e_{2c})λC​(e1c​,e2c​)=r(1−e)(1−e1c​)(1−e2c​), independently. A buyer with at least one exposed supplier suffers the MWTP damage dM>0d_M > 0dM​>0: his demand intercept drops from α\alphaα to α−dM\alpha - d_Mα−dM​. Each exposed supplier is then paid w^≥w\hat w \ge ww^≥w per unit instead of www, so a buyer with n∈{0,1,2}n \in \{0,1,2\}n∈{0,1,2} exposed suppliers has unit cost (2−n)w+nw^(2-n)w + n\hat w(2−n)w+nw^.

In stage 2 the buyers compete in quantities with inverse demands pi=Ai−qi−βqi′p_i = A_i - q_i - \beta q_{i'}pi​=Ai​−qi​−βqi′​, β∈(0,1]\beta \in (0,1]β∈(0,1] (Dixit 1979; Singh and Vives 1984). Its equilibrium profit for B1B_1B1​ is π1b(n1,n2)=q1∗(n1,n2)2\pi^b_1(n_1,n_2) = q^*_1(n_1,n_2)^2π1b​(n1​,n2​)=q1∗​(n1​,n2​)2, in closed form (Lemma 1). Buyer B1B_1B1​'s ex ante expected profit Π1b(e11,e1c;e22,e2c)\Pi^b_1(e_{11},e_{1c};e_{22},e_{2c})Π1b​(e11​,e1c​;e22​,e2c​) is the expectation of π1b\pi^b_1π1b​ over the eight damage outcomes, minus his audit costs; Π2b\Pi^b_2Π2b​ is symmetric. Three conditions on (α,β,w,w^,dM)(\alpha,\beta,w,\hat w,d_M)(α,β,w,w^,dM​) (p. 8) make all stage-2 quantities positive.

An equilibrium is a profile (s1,s2)(s_1,s_2)(s1​,s2​), si=(eii,eic)s_i = (e_{ii},e_{ic})si​=(eii​,eic​), in which each buyer's strategy is a best response to the other's, with the tie-breaking rule of p. 10: a buyer who is indifferent between auditing and not auditing does not audit. Two explicit efforts, eI∗e^*_IeI∗​ (eq. (1)) and e^I\hat e_Ie^I​ (eq. (2)), are rational functions of the parameters; e^I\hat e_Ie^I​ is a buyer's optimal effort on his independent supplier when the rival audits nobody, and eI∗e^*_IeI∗​ is the symmetric solution when both audit their independent suppliers.

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 2

Assume β∈(0,1]\beta \in (0,1]β∈(0,1] and e^I<1\hat e_I < 1e^I​<1. There exist KuL<KuM<KuHK^L_u < K^M_u < K^H_uKuL​<KuM​<KuH​ such that for every K≥0K \ge 0K≥0, writing A=((eI∗,0),(eI∗,0))A = ((e^*_I,0),(e^*_I,0))A=((eI∗​,0),(eI∗​,0)), B1=((e^I,0),(0,0))B_1 = ((\hat e_I,0),(0,0))B1​=((e^I​,0),(0,0)), B2=((0,0),(e^I,0))B_2 = ((0,0),(\hat e_I,0))B2​=((0,0),(e^I​,0)), N=((0,0),(0,0))N = ((0,0),(0,0))N=((0,0),(0,0)),

EqSet(K)={{A}K<KuL,{A,B1,B2}KuL≤K<KuM,{B1,B2}KuM≤K<KuH,{N}K≥KuH.\mathrm{EqSet}(K) = \begin{cases} \{A\} & K < K^L_u,\\ \{A, B_1, B_2\} & K^L_u \le K < K^M_u,\\ \{B_1, B_2\} & K^M_u \le K < K^H_u,\\ \{N\} & K \ge K^H_u. \end{cases}EqSet(K)=⎩⎨⎧​{A}{A,B1​,B2​}{B1​,B2​}{N}​K<KuL​,KuL​≤K<KuM​,KuM​≤K<KuH​,K≥KuH​.​

In every equilibrium the common supplier receives zero effort.

Milestones

Lemma 1 (stage-2 equilibrium), the OA.2 expected-profit display, the best-response function (OA-9) with eI∗e^*_IeI∗​ and e^I\hat e_Ie^I​ as its values, the dominance inequality (OA-11), Lemmas OA5 and OA6 (the two kinds of auditing equilibria and their threshold ranges), the monotonicity facts (OA-14)–(OA-15), Lemma OA7 (the order of the thresholds) and Lemma OA8 (no equilibrium audits ScS_cSc​). The thresholds of the milestones are the explicit ones the proof defines in (OA-10), (OA-12), (OA-13).

Significance

The result separates network position from competition. Without downstream competition (β=0\beta = 0β=0, Proposition 1) there is a Pareto-dominant equilibrium in which one buyer audits the common supplier. With competition, Proposition 2 shows that the common supplier, the most central and therefore the most consequential source of risk, is never audited: auditing it would also protect the rival, who free-rides. This inefficiency is what motivates the paper's analysis of joint auditing (Proposition 3) and of social welfare (Proposition 4).

The result is proved in the paper, partly by omission: the e-companion leaves the proof of Lemma OA8 and the case K≥KuHK \ge K^H_uK≥KuH​ to the reader. No machine-checked version exists. A formal proof would give a complete case analysis of a two-stage game with a discontinuous fixed cost, a constrained strategy set and a tie-breaking rule, and would check the paper's closed forms, several of which are printed with small slips.

Difficulty

The first-order conditions alone do not determine the equilibria. The fixed cost makes each buyer's payoff discontinuous at zero effort, so every candidate must be compared with no audit, and the best response is a choice among three regimes (audit SiS_iSi​, audit ScS_cSc​, audit nobody). Uniqueness claims therefore require excluding every profile in the constrained strategy set, including those where a buyer audits the common supplier, for which the paper gives no proof. The threshold comparisons KuL<KuM<KuHK^L_u < K^M_u < K^H_uKuL​<KuM​<KuH​ rest on monotonicity in the rival's effort, and the expected profit is multilinear in the four efforts (plus the quadratic audit costs), with coefficients that are differences of squared Cournot quantities whose signs depend on the p. 8 conditions.

Formalization scope

All objects live in the namespace SupplierAudit.Competition. The source is the authors' accepted manuscript on SSRN (2889889); main-text printed pages equal PDF pages, and e-companion page ec kkk is PDF page 28+k28 + k28+k.

  • Parameters. A structure Params carries α,β,w,w^,dM,e,r,a\alpha, \beta, w, \hat w, d_M, e, r, aα,β,w,w^,dM​,e,r,a and the standing assumptions β∈[0,1]\beta \in [0,1]β∈[0,1], w≤w^w \le \hat ww≤w^, dM>0d_M > 0dM​>0, e∈(0,1)e \in (0,1)e∈(0,1), r∈(0,1]r \in (0,1]r∈(0,1], a>0a > 0a>0 and the three conditions of p. 8. The theorems add β>0\beta > 0β>0 (competition, Sec. 4.2). KKK is a separate real argument and the goal quantifies over K≥0K \ge 0K≥0.
  • Stage 2. The general linear differentiated Cournot duopoly is its own definition (CournotDuopoly). The model's stage-2 profit is the closed form q1∗(n1,n2)2q^*_1(n_1,n_2)^2q1∗​(n1​,n2​)2 for all (n1,n2)(n_1,n_2)(n1​,n2​); Lemma 1 states that it is the game's unique equilibrium.
  • Expected profit. Π1b\Pi^b_1Π1b​ is the eight-outcome expectation; Π2b\Pi^b_2Π2b​ is Π1b\Pi^b_1Π1b​ with the roles exchanged. The grouped display of OA.2 is a milestone.
  • Strategies and equilibrium. Strategies are pairs in [0,1]2[0,1]^2[0,1]2 with product zero. Equilibria include the strict-improvement tie-breaking rule of p. 10; without it the goal is false at K=KuMK = K^M_uK=KuM​ and K=KuHK = K^H_uK=KuH​.
  • Interior efforts. The paper assumes equilibrium efforts lie in (0,1)(0,1)(0,1) (p. 10; sufficient conditions in OA.1 are not given in closed form). This is encoded as the single hypothesis e^I<1\hat e_I < 1e^I​<1 on the explicit formula (2), never as a hypothesis on an unknown equilibrium variable.
  • Thresholds. The goal states the thresholds existentially, as printed, with their order as part of the conclusion; the milestones use the explicit (OA-10), (OA-12), (OA-13). eI∗e^*_IeI∗​, e^I\hat e_Ie^I​ and e11∗(⋅)e^*_{11}(\cdot)e11∗​(⋅) are the printed formulas, not argmaxes.
  • Printed slips, corrected. In (OA-11) the second prefactor should be β(w^−w)\beta(\hat w - w)β(w^−w); only the strict inequality is stated. The printed derivative of e11∗e^*_{11}e11∗​ in the proof of Lemma OA7 lacks a factor 1/a1/a1/a; only monotonicity is stated.

A formalization in which equilibrium is plain Nash, efforts range over all of R\mathbb RR, a buyer may audit both suppliers, or "interior" is a hypothesis on the equilibrium efforts themselves would state a different (and in places false or vacuous) theorem; these are ruled out by the definitions above. Proofs of any milestone are welcome, as is reusable infrastructure for linear Cournot duopolies and for finite expectations over independent Bernoulli events.

Selected references

  • F. Chen, A. Qi, M. Dawande, Supplier Centrality and Auditing Priority in Socially-Responsible Supply Chains, Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, 2020 (accepted manuscript). https://ssrn.com/abstract=2889889
  • A. Dixit, A Model of Duopoly Suggesting a Theory of Entry Barriers, Bell Journal of Economics 10(1), 1979. https://doi.org/10.2307/3003317
  • N. Singh, X. Vives, Price and Quantity Competition in a Differentiated Duopoly, RAND Journal of Economics 15(4), 1984. https://doi.org/10.2307/2555525
  • E. L. Plambeck, T. A. Taylor, Supplier Evasion of a Buyer's Audit: Implications for Motivating Supplier Social and Environmental Responsibility, Manufacturing & Service Operations Management 18(2), 2016. https://doi.org/10.1287/msom.2015.0550
12 thms1 active userReviewed
Convex OptimizationOptimizationStatistics·Captain: mikedeng1

Sparse Regression at Scale: Branch-and-Bound rooted in First-Order Optimization 5: Dual Bounds from Active-Set Primal Solutions Lose Only O(kε), Independent of pResearch Paper

Motivation

Best-subset selection with ridge shrinkage, min⁡β12∥y−Xβ∥22+λ0∥β∥0+λ2∥β∥22\min_\beta \tfrac12\|y-X\beta\|_2^2+\lambda_0\|\beta\|_0+\lambda_2\|\beta\|_2^2minβ​21​∥y−Xβ∥22​+λ0​∥β∥0​+λ2​∥β∥22​, is a mixed-integer program that statisticians want to solve to certified optimality at the scale of modern data (ppp up to 10710^7107 features). Hazimeh, Mazumder and Saab (arXiv:2004.06152, Mathematical Programming 2022) built a branch-and-bound solver, L0BnB, whose node relaxations are solved in the primal space by active-set coordinate descent instead of by an interior-point method. Branch-and-bound prunes a node only with a valid dual bound, a certified lower bound on the node's relaxation value. A primal method returns an approximate minimizer, not such a bound, so the solver must turn an inexact primal point into a dual feasible point and needs to know how much is lost in doing so. This mission formalizes the paper's answer, its main theorem (Theorem 3).

Setting

Data are X∈Rn×pX\in\mathbb R^{n\times p}X∈Rn×p with columns X1,…,XpX_1,\dots,X_pX1​,…,Xp​, y∈Rny\in\mathbb R^ny∈Rn, and parameters λ0,λ2,M>0\lambda_0,\lambda_2,M>0λ0​,λ2​,M>0. The reverse Huber penalty is B(t)=∣t∣\mathcal B(t)=|t|B(t)=∣t∣ for ∣t∣≤1|t|\le1∣t∣≤1 and (t2+1)/2(t^2+1)/2(t2+1)/2 for ∣t∣≥1|t|\ge1∣t∣≥1. The penalty ψ(b)\psi(b)ψ(b) equals ψ1(b)=2λ0B(bλ2/λ0)\psi_1(b)=2\lambda_0\mathcal B(b\sqrt{\lambda_2/\lambda_0})ψ1​(b)=2λ0​B(bλ2​/λ0​​) if λ0/λ2≤M\sqrt{\lambda_0/\lambda_2}\le Mλ0​/λ2​​≤M and ψ2(b)=(λ0/M+λ2M)∣b∣\psi_2(b)=(\lambda_0/M+\lambda_2M)|b|ψ2​(b)=(λ0​/M+λ2​M)∣b∣ otherwise. The reduced relaxation (5) is

min⁡β∈Rp F(β)=12∥y−Xβ∥22+∑iψ(βi)s.t.∥β∥∞≤M.\min_{\beta\in\mathbb R^p}\ F(\beta)=\tfrac12\|y-X\beta\|_2^2+\sum_{i}\psi(\beta_i)\quad\text{s.t.}\quad \|\beta\|_\infty\le M .β∈Rpmin​ F(β)=21​∥y−Xβ∥22​+i∑​ψ(βi​)s.t.∥β∥∞​≤M.

Throughout, the columns of XXX and yyy have unit ℓ2\ell_2ℓ2​ norm (the standing assumption of Section 3 of the paper).

Algorithm 2 (active-set coordinate descent) returns a point β^\hat\betaβ^​ in the box such that the set

V={i∉Supp⁡(β^): 0≠arg min⁡∣t∣≤MF(β^1,…,t,…,β^p)}V=\{i\notin\operatorname{Supp}(\hat\beta):\ 0\ne\operatorname*{arg\,min}_{|t|\le M}F(\hat\beta_1,\dots,t,\dots,\hat\beta_p)\}V={i∈/Supp(β^​): 0=∣t∣≤Margmin​F(β^​1​,…,t,…,β^​p​)}

is empty: no coordinate outside the support wants to move. Write r^=y−Xβ^\hat r=y-X\hat\betar^=y−Xβ^​, k=∥β^∥0k=\|\hat\beta\|_0k=∥β^​∥0​, and let β∗\beta^*β∗ be an optimal solution of (5) with r∗=y−Xβ∗r^*=y-X\beta^*r∗=y−Xβ∗. The primal gap is ϵ=∥X(β∗−β^)∥2\epsilon=\|X(\beta^*-\hat\beta)\|_2ϵ=∥X(β∗−β^​)∥2​.

The two duals of (5) (Theorem 2 of the paper) are, with v(α,γi)=[(α⊤Xi−γi)2/(4λ2)−λ0]++M∣γi∣v(\alpha,\gamma_i)=[(\alpha^\top X_i-\gamma_i)^2/(4\lambda_2)-\lambda_0]_++M|\gamma_i|v(α,γi​)=[(α⊤Xi​−γi​)2/(4λ2​)−λ0​]+​+M∣γi​∣,

h1(α,γ)=−12∥α∥22−α⊤y−∑iv(α,γi),h2(ρ,μ)=−12∥ρ∥22−ρ⊤y−M∥μ∥1,h_1(\alpha,\gamma)=-\tfrac12\|\alpha\|_2^2-\alpha^\top y-\textstyle\sum_i v(\alpha,\gamma_i),\qquad h_2(\rho,\mu)=-\tfrac12\|\rho\|_2^2-\rho^\top y-M\|\mu\|_1,h1​(α,γ)=−21​∥α∥22​−α⊤y−∑i​v(α,γi​),h2​(ρ,μ)=−21​∥ρ∥22​−ρ⊤y−M∥μ∥1​,

the latter under ∣ρ⊤Xi∣−μi≤λ0/M+λ2M|\rho^\top X_i|-\mu_i\le\lambda_0/M+\lambda_2M∣ρ⊤Xi​∣−μi​≤λ0​/M+λ2​M. The dual variables built from β∗\beta^*β∗ are α∗=ρ∗=−r∗\alpha^*=\rho^*=-r^*α∗=ρ∗=−r∗, γi∗=1[∣βi∗∣=M](α∗⊤Xi−2Mλ2sign⁡(α∗⊤Xi))\gamma^*_i=\mathbb 1_{[|\beta^*_i|=M]}(\alpha^{*\top}X_i-2M\lambda_2\operatorname{sign}(\alpha^{*\top}X_i))γi∗​=1[∣βi∗​∣=M]​(α∗⊤Xi​−2Mλ2​sign(α∗⊤Xi​)) and μi∗=1[∣βi∗∣=M](∣ρ∗⊤Xi∣−λ0/M−λ2M)\mu^*_i=\mathbb 1_{[|\beta^*_i|=M]}(|\rho^{*\top}X_i|-\lambda_0/M-\lambda_2M)μi∗​=1[∣βi∗​∣=M]​(∣ρ∗⊤Xi​∣−λ0​/M−λ2​M). The dual points built from β^\hat\betaβ^​ are α^=ρ^=−r^\hat\alpha=\hat\rho=-\hat rα^=ρ^​=−r^, with γ^\hat\gammaγ^​ a maximizer of h1(α^,⋅)h_1(\hat\alpha,\cdot)h1​(α^,⋅) (25) and μ^\hat\muμ^​ a maximizer of h2(ρ^,⋅)h_2(\hat\rho,\cdot)h2​(ρ^​,⋅) under the constraints (27).

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3 with the proof's constants

If λ0/λ2≤M\sqrt{\lambda_0/\lambda_2}\le Mλ0​/λ2​​≤M, with ci=(2λ2)−1c_i=(2\lambda_2)^{-1}ci​=(2λ2​)−1 when ∣βi∗∣<M|\beta^*_i|<M∣βi∗​∣<M and ci=Mc_i=Mci​=M when ∣βi∗∣=M|\beta^*_i|=M∣βi∗​∣=M,

h1(α^,γ^) ≥ h1(α∗,γ∗)−2ϵ−12ϵ2−∑i∈Supp⁡(β^)(ciϵ+(4λ2)−1ϵ2).(55)h_1(\hat\alpha,\hat\gamma)\ \ge\ h_1(\alpha^*,\gamma^*)-2\epsilon-\tfrac12\epsilon^2-\sum_{i\in\operatorname{Supp}(\hat\beta)}\big(c_i\epsilon+(4\lambda_2)^{-1}\epsilon^2\big).\qquad(55)h1​(α^,γ^​) ≥ h1​(α∗,γ∗)−2ϵ−21​ϵ2−i∈Supp(β^​)∑​(ci​ϵ+(4λ2​)−1ϵ2).(55)

If λ0/λ2>M\sqrt{\lambda_0/\lambda_2}>Mλ0​/λ2​​>M,

h2(ρ^,μ^) ≥ h2(ρ∗,μ∗)−ϵ(2+Mk)−12ϵ2.(59)h_2(\hat\rho,\hat\mu)\ \ge\ h_2(\rho^*,\mu^*)-\epsilon(2+Mk)-\tfrac12\epsilon^2.\qquad(59)h2​(ρ^​,μ^​) ≥ h2​(ρ∗,μ∗)−ϵ(2+Mk)−21​ϵ2.(59)

The paper states these as −kO(ϵ)−kO(ϵ2)-kO(\epsilon)-kO(\epsilon^2)−kO(ϵ)−kO(ϵ2) (29) and −kO(ϵ)−O(ϵ2)-kO(\epsilon)-O(\epsilon^2)−kO(ϵ)−O(ϵ2) (30); the goal states the expressions its proof establishes.

Milestones

In the order the proof uses them: the closed-form coordinate updates (14) and (15); Proposition 3, V={i∉Supp⁡(β^):∣⟨r^,Xi⟩∣>c(λ0,λ2,M)}V=\{i\notin\operatorname{Supp}(\hat\beta): |\langle\hat r,X_i\rangle|>c(\lambda_0,\lambda_2,M)\}V={i∈/Supp(β^​):∣⟨r^,Xi​⟩∣>c(λ0​,λ2​,M)}; the bound ∥α∗∥2≤1\|\alpha^*\|_2\le1∥α∗∥2​≤1; Lemma 2, which bounds v(α^,γ^i)v(\hat\alpha,\hat\gamma_i)v(α^,γ^​i​) coordinate by coordinate and makes it vanish off the support; inequality (53); the closed form (28) of μ^\hat\muμ^​; the optimality conditions (58); the bound (57) ∣μ^i∣≤ϵ+∣μi∗∣|\hat\mu_i|\le\epsilon+|\mu^*_i|∣μ^​i​∣≤ϵ+∣μi∗​∣ on the support; and inequality (56).

Significance

The result. In both regimes the loss of the dual bound is controlled by the primal gap times the sparsity kkk of the iterate, with constants depending only on MMM and λ2\lambda_2λ2​; the number of features ppp does not enter. Since L0BnB seeks solutions with k≪pk\ll pk≪p, the cheap dual bound obtained from an inexact primal solution is nearly as good as the exact one, which is what allows pruning without an interior-point solve at every node. The paper notes that with plain coordinate descent in place of Algorithm 2 the same argument gives ppp in place of kkk.

Formalizing it. The result is proved in the paper; it has no machine-checked proof. The mission produces a checked version of the main theorem with explicit constants, a formal model of what "output of an active-set method" means for the analysis, and reusable closed forms for the boxed soft-thresholding updates of an ℓ1\ell_1ℓ1​- or reverse-Huber-penalized box-constrained least squares problem.

Difficulty

The bound is not a consequence of weak duality alone: weak duality says only that each dual value is below the primal optimum, and says nothing about how far the constructed dual point is from the dual optimum. The obvious estimate, a Lipschitz bound on h1h_1h1​ or h2h_2h2​ summed over all coordinates, gives a loss proportional to ppp. Getting kkk instead requires showing that the dual contribution of every coordinate outside Supp⁡(β^)\operatorname{Supp}(\hat\beta)Supp(β^​) vanishes exactly, which uses the emptiness of VVV through Proposition 3 and the closed forms (14)–(15) of one-dimensional nonsmooth box-constrained problems. On the support, the loss must be bounded using the structure of γ∗\gamma^*γ∗ and μ∗\mu^*μ∗ at coordinates where β∗\beta^*β∗ hits the box, which is where ci=Mc_i=Mci​=M and (58) enter.

Formalization scope

Indices are Fin p; norms are explicit sums; sign⁡\operatorname{sign}sign is Real.sign with sign⁡(0)=0\operatorname{sign}(0)=0sign(0)=0; [a]+[a]_+[a]+​ is max a 0. The unit norms of the columns of XXX and of yyy are hypotheses, never built into the definitions, and each theorem assumes only the ones it uses. β∗\beta^*β∗ is any point of the box minimizing FFF over the box. The output of Algorithm 2 is modelled by its two properties used in the paper: ∥β^∥∞≤M\|\hat\beta\|_\infty\le M∥β^​∥∞​≤M and V=∅V=\emptysetV=∅ ("0≠arg⁡min⁡0\ne\arg\min0=argmin" encoded as "000 is not a minimizer"); the iterations are not formalized. γ^\hat\gammaγ^​ and μ^\hat\muμ^​ are arbitrary maximizers satisfying (25) and (27). The dual variables (23)–(24) are defined by their formulas; their optimality (Theorem 2, a separate mission) is neither assumed nor needed, and the goal is an inequality between explicit numbers.

Instantiations of O(⋅)O(\cdot)O(⋅). (29) is stated as (55): kO(ϵ)+kO(ϵ2)kO(\epsilon)+kO(\epsilon^2)kO(ϵ)+kO(ϵ2) becomes 2ϵ+12ϵ2+∑i∈Supp⁡(β^)(ciϵ+(4λ2)−1ϵ2)2\epsilon+\tfrac12\epsilon^2+\sum_{i\in\operatorname{Supp}(\hat\beta)}(c_i\epsilon+(4\lambda_2)^{-1}\epsilon^2)2ϵ+21​ϵ2+∑i∈Supp(β^​)​(ci​ϵ+(4λ2​)−1ϵ2) with ci∈{(2λ2)−1,M}c_i\in\{(2\lambda_2)^{-1},M\}ci​∈{(2λ2​)−1,M} decided by β∗\beta^*β∗. (30) is stated as (59): kO(ϵ)+O(ϵ2)kO(\epsilon)+O(\epsilon^2)kO(ϵ)+O(ϵ2) becomes ϵ(2+Mk)+12ϵ2\epsilon(2+Mk)+\tfrac12\epsilon^2ϵ(2+Mk)+21​ϵ2. The proof's final rearrangement of (29), which counts ∣β^i∣|\hat\beta_i|∣β^​i​∣ instead of ∣βi∗∣|\beta^*_i|∣βi∗​∣, is not used.

A formalization that takes β^=β∗\hat\beta=\beta^*β^​=β∗, γ^=γ∗\hat\gamma=\gamma^*γ^​=γ∗ or μ^=μ∗\hat\mu=\mu^*μ^​=μ∗, that drops the hypothesis V=∅V=\emptysetV=∅, or that replaces the constants by an existential "∃C\exists C∃C" would be trivial or a different statement; the goal quantifies over every optimal β∗\beta^*β∗, every box-feasible β^\hat\betaβ^​ with V=∅V=\emptysetV=∅ and every maximizer γ^\hat\gammaγ^​, μ^\hat\muμ^​, with the explicit constants above.

Needed infrastructure: one-dimensional convex minimization on an interval with piecewise penalties, Cauchy–Schwarz for finite sums, and first-order optimality conditions for box-constrained composite problems. Proofs of any milestone are welcome independently.

Selected references

  • H. Hazimeh, R. Mazumder, A. Saab, Sparse Regression at Scale: Branch-and-Bound rooted in First-Order Optimization, arXiv:2004.06152v2, 2021; Mathematical Programming 196 (2022). https://arxiv.org/abs/2004.06152
  • P. Tseng, Convergence of a block coordinate descent method for nondifferentiable minimization, J. Optim. Theory Appl. 109 (2001). https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1017501703105
  • J. Friedman, T. Hastie, R. Tibshirani, Regularization paths for generalized linear models via coordinate descent, J. Stat. Softw. 33 (2010). https://doi.org/10.18637/jss.v033.i01
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Convex OptimizationOptimizationStatistics·Captain: mikedeng1

Sparse Regression at Scale: Branch-and-Bound rooted in First-Order Optimization 3: The Big-M Relaxation Is at Least as Strong as PR(∞) for M ≤ ½√(λ0/λ2) and at Most as Strong for M ≥ √(λ0/λ2)Research Paper

Motivation

Best subset selection with a ridge term, the ℓ0ℓ2\ell_0\ell_2ℓ0​ℓ2​-regularized least squares problem

min⁡β∈Rp 12∥y−Xβ∥22+λ0∥β∥0+λ2∥β∥22,\min_{\beta\in\mathbb R^p}\ \tfrac12\|y - X\beta\|_2^2 + \lambda_0\|\beta\|_0 + \lambda_2\|\beta\|_2^2,β∈Rpmin​ 21​∥y−Xβ∥22​+λ0​∥β∥0​+λ2​∥β∥22​,

is a standard model for sparse linear regression. It can be solved to certified optimality by branch-and-bound (BnB) over a mixed integer formulation, and the speed of BnB depends on how tight the lower bounds of its node relaxations are. Two mixed integer formulations are in common use: the Big-M formulation, which links each coefficient to a binary indicator through a box ∣βi∣≤Mzi|\beta_i| \le M z_i∣βi​∣≤Mzi​ (Bertsimas, King and Mazumder, 2016), and the perspective formulation, which replaces βi2\beta_i^2βi2​ by an auxiliary variable constrained by a rotated second-order cone (Frangioni and Gentile, 2006; Günlük and Linderoth, 2010). Which formulation gives the stronger continuous relaxation decides which one a solver should be built on.

Hazimeh, Mazumder and Saab (2021) compare the relaxations in Section 2. Their Proposition 2 compares the interval relaxation of the Big-M formulation with that of the perspective formulation without a box, PR(∞)\mathrm{PR}(\infty)PR(∞), studied by Dong, Chen and Linderoth (2015). This mission formalizes that comparison.

Setting

Fix a design matrix X∈Rn×pX \in \mathbb R^{n\times p}X∈Rn×p, a response y∈Rny \in \mathbb R^ny∈Rn, parameters λ0,λ2>0\lambda_0, \lambda_2 > 0λ0​,λ2​>0 and a bound M>0M > 0M>0. Write [p]={1,…,p}[p] = \{1,\dots,p\}[p]={1,…,p} and ∥β∥∞≤M\|\beta\|_\infty \le M∥β∥∞​≤M for ∣βi∣≤M|\beta_i| \le M∣βi​∣≤M for every i∈[p]i \in [p]i∈[p].

The Big-M formulation (2) is

min⁡β,z 12∥y−Xβ∥22+λ0∑i∈[p]zi+λ2∥β∥22s.t.−Mzi≤βi≤Mzi, zi∈{0,1}.\min_{\beta, z}\ \tfrac12\|y - X\beta\|_2^2 + \lambda_0\sum_{i\in[p]} z_i + \lambda_2\|\beta\|_2^2 \quad\text{s.t.}\quad -Mz_i \le \beta_i \le Mz_i,\ z_i\in\{0,1\}.β,zmin​ 21​∥y−Xβ∥22​+λ0​i∈[p]∑​zi​+λ2​∥β∥22​s.t.−Mzi​≤βi​≤Mzi​, zi​∈{0,1}.

Its interval relaxation replaces zi∈{0,1}z_i \in \{0,1\}zi​∈{0,1} by zi∈[0,1]z_i \in [0,1]zi​∈[0,1]; its optimal value is VB(M)V_{B(M)}VB(M)​. Eliminating zzz gives the equivalent form (37),

VB(M)=min⁡∥β∥∞≤MH(β),H(β)=12∥y−Xβ∥22+∑i∈[p](λ0M∣βi∣+λ2βi2).V_{B(M)} = \min_{\|\beta\|_\infty\le M} H(\beta),\qquad H(\beta) = \tfrac12\|y - X\beta\|_2^2 + \sum_{i\in[p]}\Big(\frac{\lambda_0}{M}|\beta_i| + \lambda_2\beta_i^2\Big).VB(M)​=∥β∥∞​≤Mmin​H(β),H(β)=21​∥y−Xβ∥22​+i∈[p]∑​(Mλ0​​∣βi​∣+λ2​βi2​).

The reverse Huber penalty is B(t)=∣t∣\mathcal B(t) = |t|B(t)=∣t∣ for ∣t∣≤1|t| \le 1∣t∣≤1 and B(t)=(t2+1)/2\mathcal B(t) = (t^2+1)/2B(t)=(t2+1)/2 for ∣t∣≥1|t| \ge 1∣t∣≥1, and ψ1(b;λ0,λ2)=2λ0B(bλ2/λ0)\psi_1(b;\lambda_0,\lambda_2) = 2\lambda_0\mathcal B(b\sqrt{\lambda_2/\lambda_0})ψ1​(b;λ0​,λ2​)=2λ0​B(bλ2​/λ0​​). The interval relaxation of PR(∞)\mathrm{PR}(\infty)PR(∞) has the value (6),

VPR(∞)=min⁡β∈RpG(β),G(β)=12∥y−Xβ∥22+∑i∈[p]ψ1(βi;λ0,λ2).V_{PR(\infty)} = \min_{\beta\in\mathbb R^p} G(\beta),\qquad G(\beta) = \tfrac12\|y - X\beta\|_2^2 + \sum_{i\in[p]}\psi_1(\beta_i;\lambda_0,\lambda_2).VPR(∞)​=β∈Rpmin​G(β),G(β)=21​∥y−Xβ∥22​+i∈[p]∑​ψ1​(βi​;λ0​,λ2​).

Let S(λ2)\mathcal S(\lambda_2)S(λ2​) be the set of minimizers of GGG, and, as in (9),

L(M)={λ2>0  :  ∃β∈S(λ2) with ∥β∥∞≤M}.\mathcal L(M) = \{\lambda_2 > 0 \;:\; \exists\beta\in\mathcal S(\lambda_2) \text{ with } \|\beta\|_\infty \le M\}.L(M)={λ2​>0:∃β∈S(λ2​) with ∥β∥∞​≤M}.

The comparison runs through the scalar function t(b)=2λ0B(bλ2/λ0)−λ0M∣b∣−λ2b2=ψ1(b)−(λ0M∣b∣+λ2b2)t(b) = 2\lambda_0\mathcal B(b\sqrt{\lambda_2/\lambda_0}) - \frac{\lambda_0}{M}|b| - \lambda_2 b^2 = \psi_1(b) - \big(\tfrac{\lambda_0}{M}|b| + \lambda_2 b^2\big)t(b)=2λ0​B(bλ2​/λ0​​)−Mλ0​​∣b∣−λ2​b2=ψ1​(b)−(Mλ0​​∣b∣+λ2​b2) and through v∗(M)=min⁡∥β∥∞≤MG(β)v^*(M) = \min_{\|\beta\|_\infty\le M} G(\beta)v∗(M)=min∥β∥∞​≤M​G(β).

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 2 (p. 7)

VB(M)≥VPR(∞)if M≤12λ0/λ2,(10)V_{B(M)} \ge V_{PR(\infty)}\quad\text{if } M \le \tfrac12\sqrt{\lambda_0/\lambda_2},\qquad (10)VB(M)​≥VPR(∞)​if M≤21​λ0​/λ2​​,(10) VB(M)≤VPR(∞)if M≥λ0/λ2 and λ2∈L(M).(11)V_{B(M)} \le V_{PR(\infty)}\quad\text{if } M \ge \sqrt{\lambda_0/\lambda_2} \text{ and } \lambda_2 \in \mathcal L(M).\qquad (11)VB(M)​≤VPR(∞)​if M≥λ0​/λ2​​ and λ2​∈L(M).(11)

Milestones, in the order of the paper's proof

  1. (37): VB(M)=min⁡∥β∥∞≤MH(β)V_{B(M)} = \min_{\|\beta\|_\infty\le M} H(\beta)VB(M)​=min∥β∥∞​≤M​H(β), attained.
  2. (10) on its own.
  3. Lemma 1: for M≥λ0/λ2M \ge \sqrt{\lambda_0/\lambda_2}M≥λ0​/λ2​​ and b∈[−M,M]b \in [-M, M]b∈[−M,M], t(b)≥0t(b) \ge 0t(b)≥0.
  4. (41): for M≥λ0/λ2M \ge \sqrt{\lambda_0/\lambda_2}M≥λ0​/λ2​​, v∗(M)≥VB(M)v^*(M) \ge V_{B(M)}v∗(M)≥VB(M)​.

The mission also contains the scalar inequality (39) as a supporting statement (not a milestone): for M≤12λ0/λ2M \le \frac12\sqrt{\lambda_0/\lambda_2}M≤21​λ0​/λ2​​ and ∣b∣≤M|b| \le M∣b∣≤M, t(b)=(2λ0λ2−λ0/M)∣b∣−λ2b2≤0t(b) = (2\sqrt{\lambda_0\lambda_2} - \lambda_0/M)|b| - \lambda_2 b^2 \le 0t(b)=(2λ0​λ2​​−λ0​/M)∣b∣−λ2​b2≤0.

Significance

Proposition 2 says that neither relaxation dominates the other. For a tight Big-M bound the Big-M relaxation yields the larger lower bound; for a loose one, provided some optimal solution of PR(∞)\mathrm{PR}(\infty)PR(∞) lies in the box, the perspective relaxation does. Equivalently, with the other data fixed, a small λ2\lambda_2λ2​ favours the Big-M relaxation and a large λ2\lambda_2λ2​ favours PR(∞)\mathrm{PR}(\infty)PR(∞) (p. 8). Together with Proposition 1 of the same paper, which shows that the box-constrained perspective relaxation PR(M)\mathrm{PR}(M)PR(M) beats both when λ0/λ2>M\sqrt{\lambda_0/\lambda_2} > Mλ0​/λ2​​>M, this motivates the paper's choice of PR(M)\mathrm{PR}(M)PR(M) as the formulation on which its BnB solver is built.

The proposition is proved in the paper (Appendix A, pp. 29–30). No machine-checked proof of it, of the reformulation (37), or of any property of the reverse Huber penalty exists on the platform. The mission produces a formal statement of both inequalities with every hypothesis explicit, and the definitions of the two relaxation values in a form that later missions on perspective relaxations can reuse.

Difficulty

The scalar inequalities (39) and Lemma 1 are elementary but split into cases at the kink of the reverse Huber penalty, ∣b∣=λ0/λ2|b| = \sqrt{\lambda_0/\lambda_2}∣b∣=λ0​/λ2​​, and at the sign of 2λ0λ2−λ0/M2\sqrt{\lambda_0\lambda_2} - \lambda_0/M2λ0​λ2​​−λ0​/M. The passage from coordinatewise inequalities to optimal values is where care is needed. VB(M)V_{B(M)}VB(M)​ is defined over pairs (β,z)(\beta, z)(β,z), and its identification with a minimum of HHH over a compact box requires eliminating zzz and showing attainment. For (11) a pointwise comparison of GGG and HHH on the box only bounds VB(M)V_{B(M)}VB(M)​ by the box-restricted value v∗(M)v^*(M)v∗(M), not by VPR(∞)V_{PR(\infty)}VPR(∞)​, which is an infimum over all of Rp\mathbb R^pRp; the hypothesis λ2∈L(M)\lambda_2 \in \mathcal L(M)λ2​∈L(M) is what closes this gap, and dropping it gives a statement the paper does not prove.

Formalization scope

All declarations live in the namespace L0BnB.BigMvsPR. Vectors are Fin p → ℝ, XXX is a Matrix (Fin n) (Fin p) ℝ, and XβX\betaXβ is X *ᵥ β. Every norm is an explicit sum: ∥v∥22=∑ivi2\|v\|_2^2 = \sum_i v_i^2∥v∥22​=∑i​vi2​, and ∥β∥∞≤M\|\beta\|_\infty \le M∥β∥∞​≤M is ∀i, ∣βi∣≤M\forall i,\ |\beta_i| \le M∀i, ∣βi​∣≤M. The reverse Huber penalty is an if on ∣t∣≤1|t| \le 1∣t∣≤1.

Optimal values are real infima (sInf): VB(M)V_{B(M)}VB(M)​ over the feasible pairs (β,z)(\beta, z)(β,z) of the interval relaxation, VPR(∞)V_{PR(\infty)}VPR(∞)​ over all of Rp\mathbb R^pRp, v∗(M)v^*(M)v∗(M) over the box. For λ0,λ2>0\lambda_0, \lambda_2 > 0λ0​,λ2​>0 each set of values is nonempty (β=z=0\beta = z = 0β=z=0) and bounded below by 000, so no infimum takes Lean's junk value. VPR(∞)V_{PR(\infty)}VPR(∞)​ is defined as the displayed minimum (6); its identification with the interval relaxation of PR(∞)\mathrm{PR}(\infty)PR(∞) is a result of Dong, Chen and Linderoth that the paper cites and does not prove, and it is not part of this mission. S(λ2)\mathcal S(\lambda_2)S(λ2​) is the set of minimizers of GGG, as the paper uses it in the proof of (11).

All theorems assume λ0,λ2,M>0\lambda_0, \lambda_2, M > 0λ0​,λ2​,M>0. The paper remarks that Proposition 2 applies for any M≥0M \ge 0M≥0; M=0M = 0M=0 is excluded because HHH and ttt divide by MMM. The goal is stated for optimal values, not for the objective functions at a single point: a pointwise comparison of HHH and GGG is a milestone, not the proposition. Milestone (37) is stated with IsLeast, so it asserts attainment as well as the value.

The paper states no O(⋅)O(\cdot)O(⋅) bounds in this result, so no constants are instantiated. Contributions welcome: proofs of the scalar lemmas, of (37) (which needs compactness of the box and continuity of HHH), and of the goal.

Selected references

  • H. Hazimeh, R. Mazumder, A. Saab, Sparse Regression at Scale: Branch-and-Bound rooted in First-Order Optimization, arXiv:2004.06152v2, 2021; Mathematical Programming, 2022. https://arxiv.org/abs/2004.06152
  • H. Dong, K. Chen, J. Linderoth, Regularization vs. Relaxation: A conic optimization perspective of statistical variable selection, arXiv preprint, 2015. https://arxiv.org/abs/1510.06083
  • D. Bertsimas, A. King, R. Mazumder, Best subset selection via a modern optimization lens, The Annals of Statistics 44(2), 813–852, 2016. https://doi.org/10.1214/15-AOS1388
  • A. Frangioni, C. Gentile, Perspective cuts for a class of convex 0–1 mixed integer programs, Mathematical Programming 106(2), 225–236, 2006. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10107-005-0594-3
  • O. Günlük, J. Linderoth, Perspective reformulations of mixed integer nonlinear programs with indicator variables, Mathematical Programming 124(1–2), 183–205, 2010. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10107-010-0360-z
  • A. B. Owen, A robust hybrid of lasso and ridge regression, Contemporary Mathematics 443, 59–72, 2007 (the reverse Huber penalty).
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Convex OptimizationDynamical SystemsFunctional Analysis+1·Captain: mikedeng1

Tikhonov Regularization of a Second Order Dynamical System with Hessian Driven Damping 3: If ∫ ε(t)/t dt = +∞, the Trajectory Converges Strongly in the Ergodic Sense to the Minimum-Norm MinimizerResearch Paper

Motivation

Second order dynamical systems with vanishing damping are continuous-time models of accelerated first-order methods. The system x¨+αtx˙+∇g(x)=0\ddot x + \frac{\alpha}{t}\dot x + \nabla g(x) = 0x¨+tα​x˙+∇g(x)=0 is the continuous limit of Nesterov's accelerated gradient method (Su, Boyd, Candès 2016), and its trajectories converge weakly to a minimizer of a convex ggg when α>3\alpha>3α>3 (Attouch, Chbani, Peypouquet, Redont 2018). Two modifications of this system have been studied separately. A Hessian-driven damping term β∇2g(x)x˙\beta\nabla^2 g(x)\dot xβ∇2g(x)x˙ damps oscillations and keeps the fast rates (Attouch, Peypouquet, Redont 2016). A Tikhonov regularization term ϵ(t)x\epsilon(t)xϵ(t)x with ϵ(t)→0\epsilon(t)\to0ϵ(t)→0 selects one minimizer, the one of minimum norm, and can turn weak convergence into strong convergence (Attouch, Chbani, Riahi 2018).

Boţ, Csetnek and László (arXiv:1911.12845v2, Math. Program. 2021) study the system with both terms. Their results split into two regimes according to how fast ϵ\epsilonϵ decays. This mission covers the slow-decay regime of §4.1, where ∫+∞ϵ(t)/t dt=+∞\int^{+\infty}\epsilon(t)/t\,dt=+\infty∫+∞ϵ(t)/tdt=+∞ and the trajectory approaches the minimum-norm minimizer in a weighted average sense.

Timeline. 2016: Su, Boyd and Candès derive the continuous model of Nesterov's method. 2016: Attouch, Peypouquet and Redont add Hessian-driven damping (α≥3\alpha\ge3α≥3, β>0\beta>0β>0) and prove fast rates and weak convergence. 2018: Attouch, Chbani and Riahi add Tikhonov regularization without Hessian damping and prove, among other results, strong ergodic convergence to the minimum-norm minimizer when ∫ϵ(t)/t dt=+∞\int\epsilon(t)/t\,dt=+\infty∫ϵ(t)/tdt=+∞. 2020: Boţ, Csetnek and László combine both terms and extend that ergodic result (their Theorem 4.2).

Setting

Let H\mathcal HH be a real Hilbert space, t0>0t_0>0t0​>0, α>0\alpha>0α>0, β≥0\beta\ge0β≥0, and u0,v0∈Hu_0,v_0\in\mathcal Hu0​,v0​∈H. The data satisfy the paper's General assumption:

  • g:H→Rg:\mathcal H\to\mathbb Rg:H→R is convex and twice Fréchet differentiable, its gradient ∇g\nabla g∇g is Lipschitz continuous on bounded sets, and argmin⁡g≠∅\operatorname{argmin} g\neq\emptysetargming=∅;
  • ϵ:[t0,+∞)→[0,+∞)\epsilon:[t_0,+\infty)\to[0,+\infty)ϵ:[t0​,+∞)→[0,+∞) is nonincreasing, of class C1C^1C1, and lim⁡t→+∞ϵ(t)=0\lim_{t\to+\infty}\epsilon(t)=0limt→+∞​ϵ(t)=0.

A global C2C^2C2-solution of system (5) is a twice continuously differentiable x:[t0,+∞)→Hx:[t_0,+\infty)\to\mathcal Hx:[t0​,+∞)→H with

x¨(t)+αtx˙(t)+β∇2g(x(t))x˙(t)+∇g(x(t))+ϵ(t)x(t)=0(t≥t0),x(t0)=u0, x˙(t0)=v0.\ddot x(t)+\frac{\alpha}{t}\dot x(t)+\beta\nabla^2 g(x(t))\dot x(t)+\nabla g(x(t))+\epsilon(t)x(t)=0\quad(t\ge t_0),\qquad x(t_0)=u_0,\ \dot x(t_0)=v_0 .x¨(t)+tα​x˙(t)+β∇2g(x(t))x˙(t)+∇g(x(t))+ϵ(t)x(t)=0(t≥t0​),x(t0​)=u0​, x˙(t0​)=v0​.

The set argmin⁡g\operatorname{argmin} gargming is nonempty, closed and convex, so it has a unique element of minimum norm, the minimum-norm minimizer x∗=argmin⁡{∥x∥:x∈argmin⁡g}x^*=\operatorname{argmin}\{\|x\|:x\in\operatorname{argmin} g\}x∗=argmin{∥x∥:x∈argming}. For ϵ>0\epsilon>0ϵ>0 the Tikhonov approximation curve is

xϵ=argmin⁡x∈H(g(x)+ϵ2∥x∥2),x_\epsilon=\operatorname*{argmin}_{x\in\mathcal H}\Big(g(x)+\frac{\epsilon}{2}\|x\|^2\Big),xϵ​=x∈Hargmin​(g(x)+2ϵ​∥x∥2),

the unique minimizer of a strongly convex function. Finally, hx∗(t)=12∥x(t)−x∗∥2h_{x^*}(t)=\tfrac12\|x(t)-x^*\|^2hx∗​(t)=21​∥x(t)−x∗∥2 measures the distance of the trajectory to x∗x^*x∗, with derivative h˙x∗(t)=⟨x˙(t),x(t)−x∗⟩\dot h_{x^*}(t)=\langle\dot x(t),x(t)-x^*\rangleh˙x∗​(t)=⟨x˙(t),x(t)−x∗⟩.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 4.2 (p. 18)

If ∫t0+∞ϵ(t)t dt=+∞\int_{t_0}^{+\infty}\frac{\epsilon(t)}{t}\,dt=+\infty∫t0​+∞​tϵ(t)​dt=+∞ and α>0\alpha>0α>0, then every global C2C^2C2-solution satisfies

lim⁡t→+∞1∫t0tϵ(s)s ds∫t0tϵ(s)s∥x(s)−x∗∥2 ds=0andlim inf⁡t→+∞∥x(t)−x∗∥=0.\lim_{t\to+\infty}\frac{1}{\int_{t_0}^{t}\frac{\epsilon(s)}{s}\,ds}\int_{t_0}^{t}\frac{\epsilon(s)}{s}\|x(s)-x^*\|^2\,ds=0 \qquad\text{and}\qquad \liminf_{t\to+\infty}\|x(t)-x^*\|=0 .t→+∞lim​∫t0​t​sϵ(s)​ds1​∫t0​t​sϵ(s)​∥x(s)−x∗∥2ds=0andt→+∞liminf​∥x(t)−x∗∥=0.

No rate and no constant is asserted, so the goal does not depend on any particular choice of ϵ\epsilonϵ.

Milestones

  1. Lemma 4.1 (p. 16): for α>0\alpha>0α>0, β≥0\beta\ge0β≥0, the velocity is bounded, 1t∥x˙(t)∥2∈L1([t0,+∞))\frac1t\|\dot x(t)\|^2\in L^1([t_0,+\infty))t1​∥x˙(t)∥2∈L1([t0​,+∞)), and sup⁡t≥t01t∣h˙x∗(t)∣<+∞\sup_{t\ge t_0}\frac1t|\dot h_{x^*}(t)|<+\inftysupt≥t0​​t1​∣h˙x∗​(t)∣<+∞ for every x∗∈argmin⁡gx^*\in\operatorname{argmin} gx∗∈argming.
  2. §4, p. 18: ∥xϵ∥≤∥x∗∥\|x_\epsilon\|\le\|x^*\|∥xϵ​∥≤∥x∗∥ for every ϵ>0\epsilon>0ϵ>0.
  3. §4, p. 18: lim⁡ϵ→0+xϵ=x∗\lim_{\epsilon\to0^+}x_\epsilon=x^*limϵ→0+​xϵ​=x∗ (stated in the paper as well known).
  4. (46) (p. 20): under the hypotheses of Theorem 4.2 there is C>0C>0C>0 with
∫t0tϵ(s)s(hx∗(s)−12(∥x∗∥2−∥xϵ(s)∥2))ds≤Cfor every t≥t0.\int_{t_0}^{t}\frac{\epsilon(s)}{s}\Big(h_{x^*}(s)-\frac12\big(\|x^*\|^2-\|x_{\epsilon(s)}\|^2\big)\Big)ds\le C\quad\text{for every }t\ge t_0 .∫t0​t​sϵ(s)​(hx∗​(s)−21​(∥x∗∥2−∥xϵ(s)​∥2))ds≤Cfor every t≥t0​.

Significance

The result shows that slow Tikhonov regularization still selects the minimum-norm minimizer when Hessian damping is added: the weighted time average of ∥x(t)−x∗∥2\|x(t)-x^*\|^2∥x(t)−x∗∥2 tends to zero and the trajectory comes arbitrarily close to x∗x^*x∗ infinitely often. The hypothesis is only α>0\alpha>0α>0, well below the threshold α≥3\alpha\ge3α≥3 that the paper needs for its fast rates, and no growth condition on ϵ\epsilonϵ beyond the divergence of ∫ϵ(t)/t dt\int\epsilon(t)/t\,dt∫ϵ(t)/tdt is imposed. It complements Theorem 4.4 of the same paper (a separate mission), which reaches full strong convergence under fast decay, ∫ϵ(t)/t dt<+∞\int\epsilon(t)/t\,dt<+\infty∫ϵ(t)/tdt<+∞, plus further conditions.

On the formal side, the theorem and its milestones are proved in the paper and in the cited literature, but none of them has a machine-checked proof. The work splits into an energy estimate for a nonautonomous second order ODE in a Hilbert space (Lemma 4.1), two facts about the Tikhonov curve that underlie the whole theory of Tikhonov regularization of convex problems (milestones 2 and 3), an integrated differential inequality (46), and a l'Hospital-type averaging step. The Tikhonov-curve facts are reusable for any formal treatment of viscosity selection and minimum-norm solutions.

Difficulty

The obvious attempt, a Lyapunov function that decreases along the trajectory and controls ∥x(t)−x∗∥\|x(t)-x^*\|∥x(t)−x∗∥, fails because x∗x^*x∗ is not a stationary point of the perturbed system: ∇g(x∗)+ϵ(t)x∗=ϵ(t)x∗≠0\nabla g(x^*)+\epsilon(t)x^*=\epsilon(t)x^*\neq0∇g(x∗)+ϵ(t)x∗=ϵ(t)x∗=0 in general. The distance to x∗x^*x∗ therefore need not decrease, and pointwise convergence is not available under the slow-decay hypothesis alone. The comparison point has to move along the Tikhonov curve xϵ(t)x_{\epsilon(t)}xϵ(t)​, whose convergence to x∗x^*x∗ comes without a rate. The available bound controls only a weighted integral of hx∗h_{x^*}hx∗​ corrected by ∥x∗∥2−∥xϵ(s)∥2\|x^*\|^2-\|x_{\epsilon(s)}\|^2∥x∗∥2−∥xϵ(s)​∥2, so the passage from (46) to the goal needs both xϵ(t)→x∗x_{\epsilon(t)}\to x^*xϵ(t)​→x∗ and the divergence of the weight. In the formal setting the Tikhonov-curve limit is itself a nontrivial weak-compactness argument in a Hilbert space, which the paper does not spell out.

Formalization scope

  • H\mathcal HH is a real Hilbert space (InnerProductSpace ℝ H, CompleteSpace H). ∇g\nabla g∇g is gradient g, and ∇2g(x)v\nabla^2 g(x)v∇2g(x)v is the Fréchet derivative of gradient g at xxx applied to vvv. "Twice Fréchet differentiable" means ggg and ∇g\nabla g∇g are differentiable; Lipschitz continuity on bounded sets is stated on every closed ball around the origin.
  • Trajectories are maps R→H\mathbb R\to\mathcal HR→H with explicit velocity and acceleration maps; derivatives are taken within [t0,+∞)[t_0,+\infty)[t0​,+∞) (one-sided at t0t_0t0​), the acceleration is continuous there, and values before t0t_0t0​ are irrelevant. The same holds for ϵ\epsilonϵ and its derivative.
  • Every theorem is stated for every global C2C^2C2-solution of (5). Existence and uniqueness of the solution is Theorem 2.1 of the paper, a milestone of the first mission of this series, so the hypothesis is not vacuous. The paper's standing α≥3\alpha\ge3α≥3 is replaced by each statement's own hypothesis α>0\alpha>0α>0.
  • The minimum-norm minimizer and the Tikhonov points are predicates on a candidate point; where the curve ϵ↦xϵ\epsilon\mapsto x_\epsilonϵ↦xϵ​ is needed, a selection that minimizes g+ϵ2∥⋅∥2g+\frac\epsilon2\|\cdot\|^2g+2ϵ​∥⋅∥2 for every ϵ>0\epsilon>0ϵ>0 is a hypothesis.
  • ∫t0+∞ϵ(t)/t dt=+∞\int_{t_0}^{+\infty}\epsilon(t)/t\,dt=+\infty∫t0​+∞​ϵ(t)/tdt=+∞ is stated as divergence of T↦∫t0Tϵ(t)/t dtT\mapsto\int_{t_0}^T\epsilon(t)/t\,dtT↦∫t0​T​ϵ(t)/tdt, never as an equation for a Bochner integral, which would take the value 000 on a non-integrable function. Likewise, lim inf⁡∥x(t)−x∗∥=0\liminf\|x(t)-x^*\|=0liminf∥x(t)−x∗∥=0 is stated as "for every δ>0\delta>0δ>0, ∥x(t)−x∗∥<δ\|x(t)-x^*\|<\delta∥x(t)−x∗∥<δ for arbitrarily large ttt", not through Filter.liminf, whose value on an unbounded function is a default. sup⁡<+∞\sup<+\inftysup<+∞ is boundedness from above of the image of [t0,+∞)[t_0,+\infty)[t0​,+∞), and L1L^1L1 membership is integrability on [t0,+∞)[t_0,+\infty)[t0​,+∞).
  • Definitions needed: argmin, the minimum-norm minimizer, Tikhonov points, the General assumption, the solution predicate for (5), and hx∗h_{x^*}hx∗​, h˙x∗\dot h_{x^*}h˙x∗​. These duplicate objects of the other two missions of the series, which are drafted independently.
  • Contributions welcome: proofs of the Tikhonov-curve facts in Mathlib generality, the energy estimate of Lemma 4.1, a continuous l'Hospital/Cesàro lemma for weighted averages, and the goal itself.

Selected references

  • R.I. Boţ, E.R. Csetnek, S.C. László, Tikhonov regularization of a second order dynamical system with Hessian driven damping, Mathematical Programming, 2021, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10107-020-01528-8 (cited from arXiv:1911.12845v2). https://arxiv.org/abs/1911.12845
  • H. Attouch, Z. Chbani, H. Riahi, Combining fast inertial dynamics for convex optimization with Tikhonov regularization, Journal of Mathematical Analysis and Applications 457(2), 1065–1094, 2018. https://arxiv.org/abs/1602.01973
  • H. Attouch, J. Peypouquet, P. Redont, Fast convex optimization via inertial dynamics with Hessian driven damping, Journal of Differential Equations 261(10), 5734–5783, 2016. https://arxiv.org/abs/1601.07113
  • H. Attouch, Z. Chbani, J. Peypouquet, P. Redont, Fast convergence of inertial dynamics and algorithms with asymptotic vanishing viscosity, Mathematical Programming 168, 123–175, 2018. https://arxiv.org/abs/1507.04782
  • W. Su, S. Boyd, E.J. Candès, A differential equation for modeling Nesterov's accelerated gradient method: theory and insights, Journal of Machine Learning Research 17(153), 1–43, 2016. https://arxiv.org/abs/1503.01243
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Algorithmic Game TheoryOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Quality in Supply Chain Encroachment III: With a Fixed Cost of Quality, the Encroaching Manufacturer Does Not Differentiate Quality Across ChannelsResearch Paper

Why channel quality matters

A manufacturer that sells through a retailer can also open a direct sales channel. The direct channel lets the manufacturer reach consumers, but it competes with the retailer, whose orders generate wholesale revenue. The manufacturer can further choose whether the two channels carry products of the same quality. These decisions interact because quality changes both consumer demand and the retailer's response. Ha, Long and Nasiry study this interaction in a sequential supply-chain game. Their fixed-quality-cost extension asks what happens when a high-quality design can be converted into a lower-quality variant without paying a separate production cost for each unit (Ha, Long and Nasiry, §6.2).

The main result is specific to this cost regime. With a cost per unit that rises with quality, different products can be attractive across the channels; with the paper's one-time cost of creating quality, Proposition 6(i) asserts equal qualities when the direct channel makes positive sales. This mission targets that fixed-cost proposition in the authors' manuscript, including its game and the reduced-profit claims used in the e-Companion (Ha, Long and Nasiry, pp. 20, 36–37).

The sequential market

The market has mass one of consumers, indexed by a taste for quality θ\thetaθ uniformly distributed on [0,1][0,1][0,1]. A consumer buying a product of quality v>0v>0v>0 at price ppp receives surplus θv−p\theta v-pθv−p. The manufacturer offers quality u>0u>0u>0 through her own direct channel and quality tu>0tu>0tu>0 through the retailer. The ratio ttt therefore records which channel has higher quality. The manufacturer pays a fixed cost of quality max⁡{ku2,k(tu)2}\max\{ku^2,k(tu)^2\}max{ku2,k(tu)2}, with k>0k>0k>0, and a direct selling cost c≥0c\ge0c≥0 per unit. The retailer has zero selling cost. Unlike a unit production cost, this fixed cost is paid once and does not scale with either channel's quantity (Ha, Long and Nasiry, pp. 7–8, 20).

The manufacturer first chooses wholesale price www and qualities u,tuu,tuu,tu. After observing them, the retailer chooses its order qR≥0q_R\ge0qR​≥0. The manufacturer observes that order and chooses her direct quantity qM≥0q_M\ge0qM​≥0. When 0<t≤10<t\le10<t≤1, market-clearing prices are

pM=u(1−qM−tqR),pR=tu(1−qM−qR).p_M=u(1-q_M-tq_R),\qquad p_R=tu(1-q_M-q_R).pM​=u(1−qM​−tqR​),pR​=tu(1−qM​−qR​).

When t≥1t\ge1t≥1, the retailer's product has higher quality, and the corresponding prices are

pM=u(1−qM−qR),pR=tu(1−qR)−uqM.p_M=u(1-q_M-q_R),\qquad p_R=tu(1-q_R)-uq_M.pM​=u(1−qM​−qR​),pR​=tu(1−qR​)−uqM​.

The manufacturer receives wholesale revenue plus direct-channel revenue, less the direct selling cost and fixed quality cost. The retailer receives its retail margin times qRq_RqR​. Encroachment means qM>0q_M>0qM​>0 on the equilibrium path, rather than the mere existence of a direct channel (Ha, Long and Nasiry, pp. 8, 11, 15, 36).

Formalization targets

Equal quality under encroachment

For a subgame-perfect equilibrium σ\sigmaσ of the fixed-cost game, the goal is Proposition 6(i):

qM(σ)>0⟹t(σ)=1.q_M(\sigma)>0\quad\Longrightarrow\quad t(\sigma)=1.qM​(σ)>0⟹t(σ)=1.

The formal statement assumes c>0c>0c>0. At c=0c=0c=0, the high-direct-quality reduced profit is independent of ttt, so the printed claim fails to force t=1t=1t=1; this is a substantive qualification of the manuscript's standing c≥0c\ge0c≥0 convention. The goal concerns the complete game, with contingent actions at every decision node, rather than only the closed-form optimization problem (Ha, Long and Nasiry, pp. 20, 36).

Subgame and optimization claims

The milestone list follows the authors' two quality regimes. The e-Companion gives best responses, wholesale prices, and reduced profits in each regime. In the high-direct-quality regime, Claim 3 concludes that an optimum with positive direct sales has t=1t=1t=1. In the low-direct-quality regime, Lemma 2 concludes that an optimum either has t=1t=1t=1 or lies at no encroachment. The latter alternative is outside the strict encroachment-feasible set used by the Lean milestone. Footnote 2 supplies a one-variable sign inequality used in the analysis of that regime (Ha, Long and Nasiry, pp. 36–37).

What the result gives

Proposition 6(i) determines the manufacturer's quality choice conditional on active direct sales: both channels carry quality uuu. It narrows the set of equilibrium outcomes that the fixed-cost model can support and distinguishes the role of a one-time design cost from the paper's earlier variable-cost model. The paper states a separate profit comparison in Proposition 6(ii); this mission does not formalize it because the e-Companion omits its proof and the fixed-cost no-encroachment benchmark for that comparison is not stated (Ha, Long and Nasiry, pp. 20, 37).

A complete Lean development would connect the reduced-profit calculations on page 36 to subgame-perfect play in the three-stage game, and establish the optimization claims over their stated feasible sets. The definitions of two-quality inverse demand, contingent strategies, and nodewise optimality are reusable for related channel games. The goal and milestones here are draft statements, without machine-checked proofs of their economic conclusions.

Central difficulty

The manufacturer chooses quality and wholesale price before the retailer's order, yet the direct quantity is chosen only after that order. Consequently, the retailer's payoff depends on the manufacturer's continuation response, and the first-stage choice must account for both later decisions. The reduced profit also changes at t=1t=1t=1, where the higher-quality channel switches. A calculation for one regime alone does not establish the full-game claim. The strict qM>0q_M>0qM​>0 region matters: its boundary represents no encroachment and supports a different alternative in Lemma 2 (Ha, Long and Nasiry, p. 36).

Formalization scope

Lean uses real wholesale prices and qualities, positive uuu and ttt, and nonnegative quantities. Wholesale price has no sign restriction in the manuscript. The market has unit size and the retailer's selling cost is zero. The two inverse-demand expressions are applied to all nonnegative quantities, following the paper's algebraic game model. A profile contains a stage-one action, a retailer order rule for every observed (w,u,t)(w,u,t)(w,u,t), and a direct-quantity rule for every observed (w,u,t,qR)(w,u,t,q_R)(w,u,t,qR​). Subgame perfection requires feasible best replies at every such history, including histories off the equilibrium path. Fixed cost is max⁡{ku2,k(tu)2}\max\{ku^2,k(tu)^2\}max{ku2,k(tu)2}, paid once, while cqMcq_McqM​ is a per-unit selling cost.

The reduced profits ΠHi\Pi_{\mathrm{Hi}}ΠHi​ and ΠLo\Pi_{\mathrm{Lo}}ΠLo​ are used only on their respective open encroachment-feasible domains, where the displayed denominators are positive. Claim 3 is stated for a joint maximizer in (t,u)(t,u)(t,u); keeping uuu fixed while moving to t=1t=1t=1 can leave that feasible set. Lemma 2 excludes the no-encroachment boundary in its Lean statement. Neither reduced profit replaces the full-game payoff in the goal. Contributions that connect the subgame formulas to arbitrary equilibrium profiles, prove the sign inequality, or establish the two optimization results are within scope (Ha, Long and Nasiry, pp. 36–37).

Selected references

  • A. Ha, X. Long and J. Nasiry, Quality in Supply Chain Encroachment, authors' manuscript, SSRN 3970373, published in Manufacturing & Service Operations Management 18(2), 2016. Manuscript. Journal DOI.
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Algorithmic Game TheoryOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Quality in Supply Chain Encroachment II: Under Quality Differentiation the Direct Channel Carries the High-Quality Product, the Manufacturer Gains and the Retailer LosesResearch Paper

Motivation

Manufacturers increasingly sell directly to consumers while continuing to supply independent retailers, a practice known as supply chain encroachment. The direct channel competes with the retailer for the same consumers, and the conventional advice for easing that conflict is to sell different products in the two channels. Ha, Long and Nasiry (MSOM 18(2), 2016; authors' manuscript SSRN 3970373) study this advice in a model where the manufacturer chooses product quality herself. This mission formalizes their Section 5: when the manufacturer may offer one quality directly and another through the retailer, which channel gets the better product, when is differentiation worth it, and who gains from encroachment.

The model builds on two lines of work. With exogenous quality, Arya, Mittendorf and Sappington (Marketing Science, 2007) showed that encroachment can benefit both firms, through a lower wholesale price. Vertical differentiation with a convex cost of quality goes back to Mussa and Rosen (JET, 1978), Moorthy (1988) and Motta (1993), where differentiation lets firms segment the market. The paper combines the two and finds that, once quality is endogenous, the retailer never gains.

Setting

A market of size 111 consists of consumers with types θ\thetaθ uniformly distributed on [0,1][0,1][0,1]; a consumer of type θ\thetaθ obtains surplus θv−p\theta v-pθv−p from a product of quality vvv at price ppp. A manufacturer sells a product of quality u>0u>0u>0 through her direct channel and a product of quality tututu, with quality ratio t>0t>0t>0, through a retailer. Producing one unit of quality vvv costs kv2kv^2kv2 (k>0k>0k>0); every unit sold directly costs a further direct selling cost c≥0c\ge 0c≥0; the retailer's selling cost is 000.

With quantities qMq_MqM​ (direct) and qRq_RqR​ (retailer), the market-clearing prices are, for t≤1t\le 1t≤1 (direct channel carries the higher quality),

pM=u(1−qM−t qR),pR=tu(1−qM−qR),p_M=u(1-q_M-t\,q_R),\qquad p_R=tu(1-q_M-q_R),pM​=u(1−qM​−tqR​),pR​=tu(1−qM​−qR​),

and for t>1t>1t>1 (retailer carries the higher quality)

pM=u(1−qM−qR),pR=tu(1−qR)−u qM.p_M=u(1-q_M-q_R),\qquad p_R=tu(1-q_R)-u\,q_M .pM​=u(1−qM​−qR​),pR​=tu(1−qR​)−uqM​.

The profits are ΠR=(pR−w)qR\Pi_R=(p_R-w)q_RΠR​=(pR​−w)qR​ and ΠM=(w−k(tu)2)qR+(pM−c−ku2)qM\Pi_M=(w-k(tu)^2)q_R+(p_M-c-ku^2)q_MΠM​=(w−k(tu)2)qR​+(pM​−c−ku2)qM​.

The game has three stages: (i) the manufacturer chooses a wholesale price www, the quality uuu and the ratio ttt; (ii) the retailer orders qR≥0q_R\ge0qR​≥0; (iii) the manufacturer chooses qM≥0q_M\ge0qM​≥0. Solutions are subgame-perfect equilibria. The manufacturer encroaches when qM∗>0q^*_M>0qM∗​>0 on the equilibrium path. Fixing t=1t=1t=1 gives the uniform-quality game of §4.1. The benchmark of §3.2 has no direct channel; its equilibrium profits are ΠMN=154k\Pi^N_M=\frac1{54k}ΠMN​=54k1​ and ΠRN=1108k\Pi^N_R=\frac1{108k}ΠRN​=108k1​.

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 4(ii)

In every subgame-perfect equilibrium with qM∗>0q^*_M>0qM∗​>0,

ΠM∗>154k=ΠMNandΠR∗<1108k=ΠRN.\Pi^*_M>\frac{1}{54k}=\Pi^N_M\qquad\text{and}\qquad \Pi^*_R<\frac{1}{108k}=\Pi^N_R .ΠM∗​>54k1​=ΠMN​andΠR∗​<108k1​=ΠRN​.

The statement makes no assumption on which quality the manufacturer chooses, on the size of ccc or on the form of the equilibrium; the constants are the benchmark's.

Milestones

  1. The benchmark equilibrium (uN=13ku^N=\frac1{3k}uN=3k1​, wN=29kw^N=\frac2{9k}wN=9k2​, qRN=16q^N_R=\frac16qRN​=61​ and the two profits), p. 9.
  2. The quantity subgame (7) for t<1t<1t<1, p. 16, and the reduced profit ΠM(t,u)\Pi_M(t,u)ΠM​(t,u) obtained by optimizing www, p. 29.
  3. Lemma 1(i)–(ii): the manufacturer's optimal ratio t(u)t(u)t(u) for given uuu, when the retailer's product is lower (t≤1t\le1t≤1) or higher (t≥1t\ge1t≥1) quality.
  4. Claim 1 and Lemma 1(iii): for c<112kc<\frac1{12k}c<12k1​ the profits of the two kinds of differentiation cross exactly once in uuu.
  5. Proposition 3: under encroachment, t∗≤1t^*\le1t∗≤1.
  6. Proposition 1(iii) in the uniform-quality game.
  7. Claim 2 and Proposition 4(i): thresholds 0<c1<c20<c_1<c_20<c1​<c2​ such that the manufacturer differentiates (t∗<1t^*<1t∗<1) for c<c1c<c_1c<c1​, uses uniform quality for c1<c<c2c_1<c<c_2c1​<c<c2​, and does not encroach for c>c2c>c_2c>c2​.

Companions

The §6.1 benchmark in which both qualities go through the retailer (ΠMN2=150k\Pi^{N2}_M=\frac1{50k}ΠMN2​=50k1​, ΠRN2=1100k\Pi^{N2}_R=\frac1{100k}ΠRN2​=100k1​), Proposition 5 (the win–lose outcome against that benchmark), and the existence of an equilibrium. The threshold milestones assert existence for each cost, so their conclusions have an equilibrium to describe.

Significance

Proposition 4(ii) says that letting the manufacturer differentiate quality across channels does not change who wins: the manufacturer still gains from encroachment and the retailer still loses, although one might expect the retailer to benefit from not facing an identical product. Proposition 3 adds that differentiation, when used, puts the higher quality in the direct channel, and Proposition 4(i) shows that for intermediate selling costs the manufacturer prefers no differentiation at all, contrary to the monopoly intuition that segmentation always pays. Proposition 5 shows the conclusion persists against a benchmark in which the retailer already carries a two-product line.

The results are proved in the paper, in part with numerical verification (e.g. the bounds on u^\hat uu^ in the proof of Proposition 3, and the location of c1c_1c1​ and c2c_2c2​). None of them has been machine-checked. A formal development would turn these numerical steps into proofs and would leave a reusable, explicit model of a three-stage Stackelberg game with a vertically differentiated linear demand.

Difficulty

The equilibrium analysis is not a single concave program. Backward induction produces closed forms only on regions (the retailer's order must leave the manufacturer a positive direct quantity, and the retailer's quantity must stay positive), and the manufacturer's stage-1 problem is a comparison across these regions and across t<1t<1t<1, t=1t=1t=1 and t>1t>1t>1. The profit of low-quality encroachment, ΠML(u)\Pi^L_M(u)ΠML​(u), involves a square root in uuu, and the paper controls its critical points by a case analysis on polynomial derivatives with numerically located crossing points (pp. 39–40). The thresholds c1≈0.0973/kc_1\approx0.0973/kc1​≈0.0973/k and c2≈0.1019/kc_2\approx0.1019/kc2​≈0.1019/k are defined implicitly by the equality of maximized profits. Comparing the equilibrium profit with 154k\frac1{54k}54k1​ therefore requires bounding a maximum taken over a piecewise-defined family, not evaluating one formula.

Formalization scope

The game is defined in QualityEncroach.Differ.Game. Quantities are restricted to be nonnegative; the wholesale price is unrestricted, as in the paper; qualities satisfy u>0u>0u>0, t>0t>0t>0. The price formulas are used for all nonnegative quantities, as in the paper; the t>1t>1t>1 case, which the paper says "can be derived similarly", is that derivation. The equilibrium notion is subgame perfection written in one-shot-deviation form at every history, on and off the path. Benchmark profits appear as the constants 154k\frac1{54k}54k1​, 1108k\frac1{108k}108k1​ (and 150k\frac1{50k}50k1​, 1100k\frac1{100k}100k1​); separate items derive them from the benchmark games. Threshold statements give c2>0c_2>0c2​>0 and 0<c1<c20<c_1<c_20<c1​<c2​ depending only on kkk, assert equilibrium existence at every c≥0c\ge0c≥0, and say nothing at c=c2c=c_2c=c2​, where the paper's statements disagree. Lemma 1 and Claim 1 are stated about the paper's reduced-form profits, defined by the displayed formulas in QualityEncroach.Differ.Reduced; the item reduced_profit_high links ΠM(t,u)\Pi_M(t,u)ΠM​(t,u) for t≤1t\le1t≤1 to the game. Claim 1 retains c=0c=0c=0 and quantifies only over positive qualities, so no reduced form is evaluated at u=0u=0u=0.

The goal is about subgame-perfect equilibria of the game, not about the reduced forms: a proof that only compares closed-form profits does not prove it without the milestones linking those forms to equilibrium play. The goal is not vacuous only if an equilibrium with qM∗>0q^*_M>0qM∗​>0 exists; the companion spe_exists asserts existence.

Contributions are welcome at every level: the benchmark and the quantity subgame are routine calculus on quadratics; Lemma 1(i)–(ii) are one-variable sign analyses; Claim 1, Lemma 1(iii), Proposition 3 and the thresholds require the case analyses of the appendix.

Selected references

  • A. Ha, X. Long, J. Nasiry, Quality in Supply Chain Encroachment, Manufacturing & Service Operations Management 18(2), 2016. https://doi.org/10.1287/msom.2015.0562 (authors' manuscript: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3970373)
  • A. Arya, B. Mittendorf, D. Sappington, The Bright Side of Supplier Encroachment, Marketing Science 26(5), 2007. https://doi.org/10.1287/mksc.1060.0228
  • M. Mussa, S. Rosen, Monopoly and Product Quality, Journal of Economic Theory 18(2), 1978. https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-0531(78)90085-6
  • K. S. Moorthy, Product and Price Competition in a Duopoly, Marketing Science 7(2), 1988. https://doi.org/10.1287/mksc.7.2.141
  • M. Motta, Endogenous Quality Choice: Price vs. Quantity Competition, Journal of Industrial Economics 41(2), 1993. https://doi.org/10.2307/2950430
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Quality in Supply Chain Encroachment IV: Without Quality Commitment in the Direct Channel, Quality Differentiation Across Channels Is Always OptimalResearch Paper

Motivation

A manufacturer that sells through an independent retailer may also open its own direct channel, an online store or a factory outlet. This is called supply chain encroachment. The operations literature has asked whether encroachment helps or hurts the two firms. The usual approach compares the double-marginalization cost of a pure retail channel with the competition the direct channel creates. With quality exogenous and uniform across channels, Arya, Mittendorf and Sappington (2007) showed that encroachment can lead to a win–win outcome when the manufacturer's direct selling cost is large, because it pushes the wholesale price down.

Ha, Long and Nasiry (Quality in Supply Chain Encroachment, MSOM 18(2), 2016; authors' manuscript SSRN 3970373) make product quality a decision of the manufacturer. Their main model lets her commit to the qualities of both channels before the retailer orders. In that model quality differentiation is not always optimal: for some parameters she sells the same quality in both channels (their Proposition 4).

Commitment is a modelling assumption. When design lead times are short, the manufacturer can redesign the direct-channel product after seeing the retailer's order, so she cannot credibly announce its quality in advance. Section 6.3 of the paper studies this fast-design case. Its only analytical result is Proposition 7: without commitment, quality differentiation across channels is always optimal. This mission formalizes that proposition and the three steps of its proof.

Setting

Consumers. A consumer has quality sensitivity θ\thetaθ, uniform on [0,1][0,1][0,1], and obtains surplus θu−p\theta u - pθu−p from one unit of quality u>0u>0u>0 at price ppp. The manufacturer sells qMq_MqM​ units of quality uMu_MuM​ directly and the retailer sells qRq_RqR​ units of quality uRu_RuR​. Each consumer buys at most one unit, and the market-clearing prices depend on which product has the higher quality:

  • if uR≤uMu_R\le u_MuR​≤uM​:   pM=uM(1−qM)−uRqR,pR=uR(1−qM−qR)\;p_M = u_M(1-q_M)-u_Rq_R,\quad p_R = u_R(1-q_M-q_R)pM​=uM​(1−qM​)−uR​qR​,pR​=uR​(1−qM​−qR​);
  • if uM<uRu_M<u_RuM​<uR​:   pM=uM(1−qM−qR),pR=uR(1−qR)−uMqM\;p_M = u_M(1-q_M-q_R),\quad p_R = u_R(1-q_R)-u_Mq_MpM​=uM​(1−qM​−qR​),pR​=uR​(1−qR​)−uM​qM​.

At uM=uR=uu_M=u_R=uuM​=uR​=u both channels clear at u(1−qM−qR)u(1-q_M-q_R)u(1−qM​−qR​).

Costs. One unit of quality vvv costs the manufacturer kv2kv^2kv2, with k>0k>0k>0. She pays a selling cost c≥0c\ge0c≥0 for each unit sold directly; the retailer's selling cost is 000.

Profits. For a wholesale price www,

ΠR=(pR−w) qR,ΠM=(w−kuR2) qR+(pM−c−kuM2) qM.\Pi_R = (p_R-w)\,q_R,\qquad \Pi_M = (w-ku_R^2)\,q_R + (p_M-c-ku_M^2)\,q_M .ΠR​=(pR​−w)qR​,ΠM​=(w−kuR2​)qR​+(pM​−c−kuM2​)qM​.

Timing without commitment.

  1. The manufacturer announces the retailer's quality uRu_RuR​ and the wholesale price www.
  2. The retailer chooses its order qRq_RqR​.
  3. The manufacturer chooses the direct-channel quality uMu_MuM​ and quantity qMq_MqM​.

The game has perfect information and is solved by backward induction. A strategy profile σ\sigmaσ has three parts: a stage-1 choice (w,uR)(w,u_R)(w,uR​), a retailer rule (w,uR)↦qR(w,u_R)\mapsto q_R(w,uR​)↦qR​, and a stage-3 rule (w,uR,qR)↦(uM,qM)(w,u_R,q_R)\mapsto(u_M,q_M)(w,uR​,qR​)↦(uM​,qM​). The profile is a subgame perfect equilibrium (SPE) when, at every history on or off the path, the mover's action is feasible and no feasible alternative gives the mover more. The manufacturer encroaches when qM>0q_M>0qM​>0 on the equilibrium path.

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 7 (p. 21)

For every k>0k>0k>0, c≥0c\ge0c≥0 and every SPE σ\sigmaσ whose equilibrium path has qM>0q_M>0qM​>0 and qR>0q_R>0qR​>0,

uM≠uRon the equilibrium path.u_M \neq u_R \quad\text{on the equilibrium path.}uM​=uR​on the equilibrium path.

Milestones (proof of Proposition 7, p. 37)

Write uM=τuRu_M=\tau u_RuM​=τuR​ with τ>0\tau>0τ>0.

  1. Stage-3 value functions. For τ≥1\tau\ge1τ≥1 the optimal direct quantity is qM(τ,qR,uR)=((−c−qRuR−kτ2uR2+τuR)/(2τuR))+q_M(\tau,q_R,u_R)=\big((-c-q_Ru_R-k\tau^2u_R^2+\tau u_R)/(2\tau u_R)\big)^+qM​(τ,qR​,uR​)=((−c−qR​uR​−kτ2uR2​+τuR​)/(2τuR​))+. When it is positive the optimal profit is
ΠMHF=(c+uR(qR+τ(kτuR−1)))24τuR+qR(w−kuR2).\Pi^{HF}_M=\frac{(c+u_R(q_R+\tau(k\tau u_R-1)))^2}{4\tau u_R}+q_R(w-ku_R^2).ΠMHF​=4τuR​(c+uR​(qR​+τ(kτuR​−1)))2​+qR​(w−kuR2​).

The case τ≤1\tau\le1τ≤1 gives ΠMLF\Pi^{LF}_MΠMLF​ in the same way, and the two agree at τ=1\tau=1τ=1. 2. Derivatives (31)–(32). The τ\tauτ-derivatives of ΠMHF\Pi^{HF}_MΠMHF​ and ΠMLF\Pi^{LF}_MΠMLF​, their values at τ=1\tau=1τ=1, and the equivalence

qM(1,qR,uR)>0  ⟺  c+uR(qR+kuR−1)<0.q_M(1,q_R,u_R)>0\iff c+u_R(q_R+ku_R-1)<0.qM​(1,qR​,uR​)>0⟺c+uR​(qR​+kuR​−1)<0.
  1. Stage-3 contradiction. At any history with uR>0u_R>0uR​>0 and qR>0q_R>0qR​>0, no optimal stage-3 choice has both uM=uRu_M=u_RuM​=uR​ and qM>0q_M>0qM​>0.

Milestone 3 is stronger than the goal: it holds at every stage-3 history, not only on the equilibrium path.

Significance

The result. Proposition 7 shows that the structure of the optimal product line depends on the timing of design decisions. With commitment, the manufacturer sometimes keeps a single quality. A lower-quality direct product would draw a larger retail order but forgo market segmentation, and with some parameter values she accepts that trade. Without commitment, the direct-channel quality can no longer influence the retailer's order. She then always differentiates, so whenever both channels sell, consumers face a two-product line. The paper's numerical work (Figure 6) compares the two regimes. The analytical statement that differentiation is universal without commitment is this proposition.

Formalizing it. The proposition has a short, informal proof in the e-Companion. That proof argues through first-order conditions, "given that τ=1\tau=1τ=1 is optimal". It uses the strict signs printed in (31) and (32), although optimality gives only weak inequalities. Its contradiction relies on the retailer's order being positive, which the statement leaves implicit. A machine-checked proof pins down exactly which hypotheses the result needs. It also contributes reusable facts about Cournot-type stage games with vertically differentiated products. No part of this paper has been formalized before.

Difficulty

The stage-3 problem is a joint choice of quality uMu_MuM​ and quantity qMq_MqM​, and the demand system changes form at uM=uRu_M=u_RuM​=uR​, so the manufacturer's profit is not differentiable in uMu_MuM​ there. The value function after optimizing qMq_MqM​ is a piecewise expression: ΠMHF\Pi^{HF}_MΠMHF​ to the right of τ=1\tau=1τ=1, ΠMLF\Pi^{LF}_MΠMLF​ to the left, and the linear profit qR(w−kuR2)q_R(w-ku_R^2)qR​(w−kuR2​) wherever the optimal qMq_MqM​ is zero. An argument that τ=1\tau=1τ=1 is not optimal has to work with one-sided derivatives of this function at a kink. It must also check that the optimal quantity stays positive on both sides near τ=1\tau=1τ=1.

An obvious shortcut is to argue that differentiation is optimal because segmentation always pays. That argument fails at qR=0q_R=0qR​=0. There the manufacturer is a one-product monopolist, and uM=uRu_M=u_RuM​=uR​ is optimal whenever uRu_RuR​ happens to equal her monopoly quality. The positive retail order is therefore essential.

Formalization scope

All definitions live in the namespace QualityEncroach.NoCommit. They are real-valued throughout, and the formalization fixes the following conventions:

  • the wholesale price www ranges over R\mathbb RR, since the paper states no sign restriction;
  • qualities satisfy uR,uM>0u_R,u_M>0uR​,uM​>0, and quantities satisfy qR,qM≥0q_R,q_M\ge0qR​,qM​≥0;
  • the inverse demand is the formula above for all nonnegative quantities, as in the paper;
  • the paper derives the case uM<uRu_M<u_RuM​<uR​ "similarly" (p. 15), and its explicit form is the one stated above;
  • τ\tauτ is not named in the paper's text; its formulas read uM=τuRu_M=\tau u_RuM​=τuR​;
  • subgame perfection is stated in one-shot-deviation form at every history, which in this three-stage game is equivalent to subgame perfection;
  • the goal adds the hypothesis qR>0q_R>0qR​>0 on the path, reading "across channels" as both channels selling (see Difficulty).

A trivializing formalization is ruled out: the stage-3 rule maps (w,uR,qR)(w,u_R,q_R)(w,uR​,qR​) to (uM,qM)(u_M,q_M)(uM​,qM​), so uMu_MuM​ is chosen after the order. Putting uMu_MuM​ at stage 1 would give the committed game, where the proposition is false. The goal is conditional on an SPE existing, which the paper does not prove. A verification file checks the price formulas on hand instances in both branches. At k=1k=1k=1, c=0.05c=0.05c=0.05, uR=0.3u_R=0.3uR​=0.3, qR=0.1q_R=0.1qR​=0.1 and w=0.15w=0.15w=0.15, it checks that the basic parameter conditions hold and a uniform stage-3 choice is strictly beaten by uM=0.33u_M=0.33uM​=0.33. The numerical check does not establish the existence of an optimal stage-3 choice or an SPE.

A complete development needs elementary real analysis only: maximization of concave quadratics, one-variable derivatives, and one-sided optimality conditions at a kink. Proofs of any milestone, and proofs of the goal from milestone 3, are welcome.

Selected references

  • A. Y. Ha, X. Long, J. Nasiry, Quality in Supply Chain Encroachment, Manufacturing & Service Operations Management 18(2), 2016. https://doi.org/10.1287/msom.2015.0562 (authors' manuscript: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3970373)
  • A. Arya, B. Mittendorf, D. E. M. Sappington, The Bright Side of Supplier Encroachment, Marketing Science 26(5), 651–659, 2007. https://doi.org/10.1287/mksc.1070.0280
  • M. Mussa, S. Rosen, Monopoly and Product Quality, Journal of Economic Theory 18(2), 301–317, 1978. https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-0531(78)90085-6
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Algorithmic Game TheoryOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Quality in Supply Chain Encroachment I: With Endogenous Uniform Quality, an Encroaching Manufacturer Gains and the Retailer Always LosesResearch Paper

Motivation

Manufacturers increasingly sell directly to consumers through their own stores and websites, alongside the independent retailers that carry their products. This practice is called supply chain encroachment. Retailers routinely resent it, and examples range from beer brewers to personal computers. Arya, Mittendorf and Sappington (Marketing Science, 2007) showed that, when product quality is fixed, encroachment can benefit the retailer too: the manufacturer lowers the wholesale price to keep the retailer channel competitive, and this wholesale price effect can outweigh the lost sales.

Ha, Long and Nasiry (Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, 2016; authors' manuscript SSRN 3970373) ask what changes when the manufacturer also chooses product quality. Their first result, formalized in this mission, is that the win–win outcome disappears: with endogenous quality and a single product sold in both channels, encroachment always helps the manufacturer and always hurts the retailer.

Setting

Consumers have a quality sensitivity θ\thetaθ uniformly distributed on [0,1][0,1][0,1], and a consumer who buys a product of quality u>0u>0u>0 at price ppp obtains surplus θu−p\theta u-pθu−p. When one product of quality uuu is sold in total quantity qqq, the market-clearing price is p=u(1−q)p=u(1-q)p=u(1−q). The manufacturer's unit production cost for quality uuu is ku2ku^2ku2, with k>0k>0k>0 the cost of quality. Selling one unit through her own direct channel costs her an additional c≥0c\ge 0c≥0; the retailer's selling cost is 000.

Benchmark (no direct channel). The manufacturer chooses a wholesale price www and a quality uuu; after observing them the retailer orders qR≥0q_R\ge 0qR​≥0. The profits are

ΠRN=(u(1−qR)−w) qR,ΠMN=(w−ku2) qR.\Pi^N_R=(u(1-q_R)-w)\,q_R,\qquad \Pi^N_M=(w-ku^2)\,q_R .ΠRN​=(u(1−qR​)−w)qR​,ΠMN​=(w−ku2)qR​.

Encroachment with uniform quality. The game has three stages and perfect information:

  1. the manufacturer chooses www and uuu;
  2. the retailer, having observed them, orders qR≥0q_R\ge 0qR​≥0;
  3. the manufacturer, having observed qRq_RqR​, sells qM≥0q_M\ge 0qM​≥0 directly.

Both channels sell the same product at the price u(1−qR−qM)u(1-q_R-q_M)u(1−qR​−qM​), so

ΠRU=(u(1−qR−qM)−w) qR,ΠMU=(w−ku2) qR+(u−uqM−uqR−c−ku2) qM.\Pi^U_R=(u(1-q_R-q_M)-w)\,q_R,\qquad \Pi^U_M=(w-ku^2)\,q_R+(u-uq_M-uq_R-c-ku^2)\,q_M .ΠRU​=(u(1−qR​−qM​)−w)qR​,ΠMU​=(w−ku2)qR​+(u−uqM​−uqR​−c−ku2)qM​.

The solution concept is subgame perfect equilibrium: at every decision node, on or off the equilibrium path, the mover's rule picks a feasible action that no feasible alternative beats. The manufacturer encroaches when qMU>0q^U_M>0qMU​>0 on the equilibrium path.

In the Lean development these are the structures Outcome and Profile, the payoffs retailerPayoff and mfrPayoff k c, and the predicate IsSPE k c σ of the definition QualityEncroach.Uniform.Game, with the benchmark counterparts BenchProfile and IsBenchSPE k τ.

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 1(iii)

In the benchmark, every equilibrium has uN=13ku^N=\tfrac1{3k}uN=3k1​ and profits ΠMN=154k\Pi^N_M=\tfrac1{54k}ΠMN​=54k1​, ΠRN=1108k\Pi^N_R=\tfrac1{108k}ΠRN​=108k1​. The goal states that, for every k>0k>0k>0, c≥0c\ge0c≥0 and every subgame perfect equilibrium of the encroachment game in which the manufacturer encroaches,

ΠMU>154k=ΠMNandΠRU<1108k=ΠRN.\Pi^U_M>\frac{1}{54k}=\Pi^N_M\qquad\text{and}\qquad \Pi^U_R<\frac1{108k}=\Pi^N_R .ΠMU​>54k1​=ΠMN​andΠRU​<108k1​=ΠRN​.

The statement fixes no threshold value, and it holds for every equilibrium.

Milestones

The milestones follow the paper's backward induction:

  1. the benchmark subgame, equations (1)–(2), and the benchmark equilibrium (§3.2);
  2. the manufacturer's stage-3 best response qMU(qR,w,u)=(12−qR2−c2u−ku2)+q^U_M(q_R,w,u)=\big(\tfrac12-\tfrac{q_R}{2}-\tfrac{c}{2u}-\tfrac{ku}{2}\big)^+qMU​(qR​,w,u)=(21​−2qR​​−2uc​−2ku​)+;
  3. the quantity subgame (3) and the optimal wholesale price and profits (4)–(5) for a given quality;
  4. the three-case optimal profit ΠM(u)\Pi_M(u)ΠM​(u) of the Appendix, covering three regimes: the manufacturer sells directly, the retailer deters direct sales exactly, or the direct channel is idle;
  5. Proposition 1(i): there is a threshold c~>0\tilde c>0c~>0 such that
c<c~ ⇒ qMU>0,c>c~ ⇒ qMU=0.c<\tilde c\ \Rightarrow\ q^U_M>0,\qquad c>\tilde c\ \Rightarrow\ q^U_M=0 .c<c~ ⇒ qMU​>0,c>c~ ⇒ qMU​=0.

Further statements

The mission also contains:

  • condition (6) for a fixed quality, together with the identity wN(u)−wU(u)=c/6w^N(u)-w^U(u)=c/6wN(u)−wU(u)=c/6;
  • Proposition 1(ii): the equilibrium quality first rises and then falls in ccc, and it is distorted upward exactly below a threshold cuc^ucu;
  • Corollary 1: c~\tilde cc~ is decreasing in kkk, and for c>0c>0c>0 the retailer's profit under encroachment is increasing in kkk;
  • existence of a subgame perfect equilibrium.

Significance

The result separates two regimes that look alike. With quality fixed, a retailer facing an encroaching manufacturer is better off exactly when condition (6) holds. With quality chosen by the manufacturer, that region disappears. The manufacturer distorts quality, upward when ccc is small and downward when it is large, and so relies less on the wholesale price to steer the retailer's order. The retailer then loses in every equilibrium in which encroachment occurs. The paper's later sections (quality differentiation, a fixed cost of quality, no quality commitment, a general cost function) all measure against this base case.

The result is proved on paper, by backward induction with closed-form profits, an envelope-theorem convexity argument in ccc, and a numerically located threshold c~≈0.1019/k\tilde c\approx0.1019/kc~≈0.1019/k. None of it is formalized. A machine-checked proof would certify:

  • the closed-form reduced profits;
  • the case analysis of the Appendix, whose boundaries are given by roots of polynomial equations in uuu;
  • the claim, stated in the paper only for the reduced problem, that it holds for every subgame perfect equilibrium of the game.

Difficulty

Each step of the backward induction is a one-variable concave problem, but the steps do not compose into a single smooth problem. The retailer's best order depends on whether his order leaves room for direct sales. As a result the manufacturer's profit given uuu is the piecewise function ΠM(u)\Pi_M(u)ΠM​(u). Its middle piece describes a retailer who orders exactly enough to keep the manufacturer out, and that piece is not a stationary point of anything. The global optimum over uuu switches between the first piece and the other two at a threshold c~\tilde cc~ that the paper locates only numerically.

The goal compares the optimum of this piecewise problem with a constant, for every equilibrium. The natural first idea, comparing the reduced profits with the benchmark ones pointwise in uuu, does not work for the retailer: for a fixed quality his encroachment profit 2c2/(9u)2c^2/(9u)2c2/(9u) exceeds the benchmark profit u(1−ku)2/16u(1-ku)^2/16u(1−ku)2/16 on part of the range, which is exactly condition (6). The comparison has to use the quality the manufacturer actually chooses, and that quality is known only through the case analysis above.

Formalization scope

All quantities are real numbers. The following conventions are fixed:

  • the wholesale price ranges over all of R\mathbb RR, since the paper states no sign restriction;
  • qualities are u>0u>0u>0 and quantities qR,qM≥0q_R,q_M\ge0qR​,qM​≥0;
  • the inverse demand u(1−qR−qM)u(1-q_R-q_M)u(1−qR​−qM​) is used for all nonnegative quantities, as in the paper.

Subgame perfection is written in one-shot-deviation form at every history, which in this three-stage game with perfect information is subgame perfection. It constrains the retailer's rule at every (w,u)(w,u)(w,u) and the manufacturer's stage-3 rule at every (w,u,qR)(w,u,q_R)(w,u,qR​), not only on the path.

The benchmark profits in the goal are the paper's constants 1/(54k)1/(54k)1/(54k) and 1/(108k)1/(108k)1/(108k). The milestone benchmark_equilibrium proves that a benchmark equilibrium exists and that these are its profits.

Two formalizations would trivialize the goal, and both are ruled out:

  • stating the goal about the reduced form ΠMU\Pi^U_MΠMU​ at a maximizer of ΠM(u)\Pi_M(u)ΠM​(u) instead of about the game would assume the backward induction;
  • dropping the off-path optimality conditions would let the goal range over non-equilibria.

The encroachment threshold of Proposition 1(i) is stated in both directions, with c~>0\tilde c>0c~>0 chosen before ccc. The boundary point c=c~c=\tilde cc=c~ is left open, because the paper's statements disagree there.

The closed forms qRNq^N_RqRN​, wNw^NwN, ΠMN\Pi^N_MΠMN​, ΠRN\Pi^N_RΠRN​, qMUq^U_MqMU​, qRUq^U_RqRU​, wUw^UwU, ΠMU\Pi^U_MΠMU​, ΠRU\Pi^U_RΠRU​, ΠMUZ\Pi^{UZ}_MΠMUZ​ and ΠM\Pi_MΠM​ are definitions that cite their page. Every statement that uses one with uuu in a denominator assumes u>0u>0u>0.

A complete development needs:

  • concave quadratic maximization;
  • a piecewise-concave best-response lemma;
  • the envelope argument of the Appendix, or a direct polynomial comparison;
  • some way to certify the numerically located thresholds, for which interval arithmetic or explicit polynomial sign certificates are both acceptable.

The game definitions are reusable for the other missions of this series, which keep this cost structure. Proofs of any milestone are welcome, as are alternative arguments for the goal that bypass the threshold computation.

Selected references

  • A. Ha, X. Long, J. Nasiry, Quality in Supply Chain Encroachment, Manufacturing & Service Operations Management 18(2), 2016. https://doi.org/10.1287/msom.2015.0562 (authors' manuscript: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3970373)
  • A. Arya, B. Mittendorf, D. E. M. Sappington, The Bright Side of Supplier Encroachment, Marketing Science 26(5): 651–659, 2007. https://doi.org/10.1287/mksc.1070.0280
9 thms1 active userReviewed
Convex OptimizationOptimizationStatistics·Captain: mikedeng1

Sparse Regression at Scale: Branch-and-Bound rooted in First-Order Optimization 2: When √(λ0/λ2) > M the Perspective Relaxation Is at Least as Strong as the Big-M and PR(∞) RelaxationsResearch Paper

Motivation

Best subset selection with ridge shrinkage asks for a coefficient vector β∈Rp\beta\in\mathbb R^pβ∈Rp that fits a response y∈Rny\in\mathbb R^ny∈Rn through a design matrix X∈Rn×pX\in\mathbb R^{n\times p}X∈Rn×p while using few nonzero coefficients:

min⁡β∈Rp 12∥y−Xβ∥22+λ0∥β∥0+λ2∥β∥22.\min_{\beta\in\mathbb R^p}\ \tfrac12\|y-X\beta\|_2^2 + \lambda_0\|\beta\|_0 + \lambda_2\|\beta\|_2^2 .β∈Rpmin​ 21​∥y−Xβ∥22​+λ0​∥β∥0​+λ2​∥β∥22​.

This ℓ0ℓ2\ell_0\ell_2ℓ0​ℓ2​-regularized least squares problem is NP-hard, and exact methods solve it as a mixed integer program by branch-and-bound (BnB). The speed of BnB is governed by the strength of the continuous relaxation solved at every node: a larger relaxation value prunes more nodes. Hazimeh, Mazumder and Saab (arXiv:2004.06152, Mathematical Programming 2022) build the solver L0BnB on a perspective formulation and compare its relaxation with two standard alternatives. Their Proposition 1 quantifies that comparison, and their experiments (Section 4.2.1 of the paper) report speed-ups of more than 90× from using the perspective formulation with a tight bound MMM instead of the bound-free formulation.

The mission formalizes Proposition 1 together with the three steps of its proof in the paper's Appendix A.

Setting

Fix XXX, yyy, regularization parameters λ0,λ2>0\lambda_0,\lambda_2>0λ0​,λ2​>0 and a bound M>0M>0M>0 on ∥β∥∞\|\beta\|_\infty∥β∥∞​; write [p]={1,…,p}[p]=\{1,\dots,p\}[p]={1,…,p}.

The Big-M formulation B(M)B(M)B(M) introduces indicators ziz_izi​ and minimizes 12∥y−Xβ∥22+λ0∑izi+λ2∥β∥22\tfrac12\|y-X\beta\|_2^2+\lambda_0\sum_i z_i+\lambda_2\|\beta\|_2^221​∥y−Xβ∥22​+λ0​∑i​zi​+λ2​∥β∥22​ subject to −Mzi≤βi≤Mzi-Mz_i\le\beta_i\le Mz_i−Mzi​≤βi​≤Mzi​, zi∈{0,1}z_i\in\{0,1\}zi​∈{0,1}. Its interval relaxation lets zi∈[0,1]z_i\in[0,1]zi​∈[0,1]; its optimal value is VB(M)V_{B(M)}VB(M)​.

The reverse Huber penalty is B(t)=∣t∣\mathcal B(t)=|t|B(t)=∣t∣ for ∣t∣≤1|t|\le1∣t∣≤1 and (t2+1)/2(t^2+1)/2(t2+1)/2 for ∣t∣≥1|t|\ge1∣t∣≥1. Put

ψ1(b;λ0,λ2)=2λ0 B(bλ2/λ0),ψ2(b;λ0,λ2,M)=(λ0M+λ2M)∣b∣,\psi_1(b;\lambda_0,\lambda_2)=2\lambda_0\,\mathcal B\big(b\sqrt{\lambda_2/\lambda_0}\big),\qquad \psi_2(b;\lambda_0,\lambda_2,M)=\Big(\frac{\lambda_0}{M}+\lambda_2M\Big)|b|,ψ1​(b;λ0​,λ2​)=2λ0​B(bλ2​/λ0​​),ψ2​(b;λ0​,λ2​,M)=(Mλ0​​+λ2​M)∣b∣,

and let ψ=ψ1\psi=\psi_1ψ=ψ1​ if λ0/λ2≤M\sqrt{\lambda_0/\lambda_2}\le Mλ0​/λ2​​≤M and ψ=ψ2\psi=\psi_2ψ=ψ2​ if λ0/λ2>M\sqrt{\lambda_0/\lambda_2}>Mλ0​/λ2​​>M. The paper's Theorem 1 shows that the interval relaxation of the perspective formulation PR(M)\mathrm{PR}(M)PR(M) is equivalent to

min⁡∥β∥∞≤MF(β),F(β)=12∥y−Xβ∥22+∑i∈[p]ψ(βi;λ0,λ2,M),(5)\min_{\|\beta\|_\infty\le M} F(\beta),\qquad F(\beta)=\tfrac12\|y-X\beta\|_2^2+\sum_{i\in[p]}\psi(\beta_i;\lambda_0,\lambda_2,M), \tag{5}∥β∥∞​≤Mmin​F(β),F(β)=21​∥y−Xβ∥22​+i∈[p]∑​ψ(βi​;λ0​,λ2​,M),(5)

and VPR(M)V_{PR(M)}VPR(M)​ denotes the optimal value of (5). Without a bound, the relaxation value of PR(∞)\mathrm{PR}(\infty)PR(∞) is

VPR(∞)=min⁡β∈RpG(β),G(β)=12∥y−Xβ∥22+∑i∈[p]ψ1(βi;λ0,λ2).(6)V_{PR(\infty)}=\min_{\beta\in\mathbb R^p}G(\beta),\qquad G(\beta)=\tfrac12\|y-X\beta\|_2^2+\sum_{i\in[p]}\psi_1(\beta_i;\lambda_0,\lambda_2). \tag{6}VPR(∞)​=β∈Rpmin​G(β),G(β)=21​∥y−Xβ∥22​+i∈[p]∑​ψ1​(βi​;λ0​,λ2​).(6)

Finally h(λ0,λ2,M)=λ0/M+λ2M−2λ0λ2h(\lambda_0,\lambda_2,M)=\lambda_0/M+\lambda_2M-2\sqrt{\lambda_0\lambda_2}h(λ0​,λ2​,M)=λ0​/M+λ2​M−2λ0​λ2​​, and β∗\beta^*β∗ denotes an optimal solution of (5).

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 1

For λ0/λ2>M\sqrt{\lambda_0/\lambda_2}>Mλ0​/λ2​​>M,

VPR(M) ≥ VB(M)+λ2(M∥β∗∥1−∥β∗∥22),(7)V_{PR(M)}\ \ge\ V_{B(M)}+\lambda_2\big(M\|\beta^*\|_1-\|\beta^*\|_2^2\big), \tag{7}VPR(M)​ ≥ VB(M)​+λ2​(M∥β∗∥1​−∥β∗∥22​),(7) VPR(M) ≥ VPR(∞)+h(λ0,λ2,M) ∥β∗∥1.(8)V_{PR(M)}\ \ge\ V_{PR(\infty)}+h(\lambda_0,\lambda_2,M)\,\|\beta^*\|_1. \tag{8}VPR(M)​ ≥ VPR(∞)​+h(λ0​,λ2​,M)∥β∗∥1​.(8)

Milestones

  1. (37): VB(M)=min⁡∥β∥∞≤MH(β)V_{B(M)}=\min_{\|\beta\|_\infty\le M}H(\beta)VB(M)​=min∥β∥∞​≤M​H(β) with H(β)=12∥y−Xβ∥22+∑i(λ0M∣βi∣+λ2βi2)H(\beta)=\tfrac12\|y-X\beta\|_2^2+\sum_i\big(\tfrac{\lambda_0}{M}|\beta_i|+\lambda_2\beta_i^2\big)H(β)=21​∥y−Xβ∥22​+∑i​(Mλ0​​∣βi​∣+λ2​βi2​); the Big-M relaxation expressed in β\betaβ alone. It holds for every M>0M>0M>0.
  2. (7) alone.
  3. The linear case of ψ1\psi_1ψ1​: if ∣b∣≤M<λ0/λ2|b|\le M<\sqrt{\lambda_0/\lambda_2}∣b∣≤M<λ0​/λ2​​ then ψ1(b;λ0,λ2)=2∣b∣λ0λ2\psi_1(b;\lambda_0,\lambda_2)=2|b|\sqrt{\lambda_0\lambda_2}ψ1​(b;λ0​,λ2​)=2∣b∣λ0​λ2​​.
  4. (8) alone (the paper's (38)).

The goal is the conjunction of milestones 2 and 4.

Significance

In the regime λ0/λ2>M\sqrt{\lambda_0/\lambda_2}>Mλ0​/λ2​​>M both added terms are nonnegative: M∥β∗∥1≥∥β∗∥22M\|\beta^*\|_1\ge\|\beta^*\|_2^2M∥β∗∥1​≥∥β∗∥22​ because ∥β∗∥∞≤M\|\beta^*\|_\infty\le M∥β∗∥∞​≤M, and h>0h>0h>0 because λ0/M+λ2M>2λ0λ2\lambda_0/M+\lambda_2M>2\sqrt{\lambda_0\lambda_2}λ0​/M+λ2​M>2λ0​λ2​​ whenever M≠λ0/λ2M\ne\sqrt{\lambda_0/\lambda_2}M=λ0​/λ2​​. So the perspective relaxation is at least as strong as both the Big-M relaxation and PR(∞)\mathrm{PR}(\infty)PR(∞), strictly so as soon as one coordinate of β∗\beta^*β∗ lies strictly inside (0,M)(0,M)(0,M) in absolute value (for (7)) or β∗≠0\beta^*\ne0β∗=0 (for (8)). The bounds are explicit in the relaxation's own solution, so they can be evaluated at a BnB node. This is the theoretical justification for the paper's design choice of building its solver on PR(M)\mathrm{PR}(M)PR(M) with a valid, tight MMM; the regime λ0/λ2≤M\sqrt{\lambda_0/\lambda_2}\le Mλ0​/λ2​​≤M, where (5) is (6) with the additional box constraint ∥β∥∞≤M\|\beta\|_\infty\le M∥β∥∞​≤M, is complementary.

Proposition 1 is proved in the paper; it has no machine-checked proof. The mission produces one, together with reusable Lean definitions of the three relaxation values and of the reverse Huber penalty that other statements about perspective relaxations of sparse regression can be stated against.

Difficulty

The arithmetic of the coordinate-wise penalties is short. The substance is in comparing optimal values that are defined as infima over different feasible sets. The obvious argument "VPR(M)−VB(M)≥F(β∗)−H(β∗)V_{PR(M)}-V_{B(M)}\ge F(\beta^*)-H(\beta^*)VPR(M)​−VB(M)​≥F(β∗)−H(β∗)" requires that the Big-M relaxation, which is posed over pairs (β,z)(\beta,z)(β,z), have value at most H(β∗)H(\beta^*)H(β∗); that is the content of (37), a statement about a different feasible set in more variables. Likewise (8) needs VPR(∞)≤G(β∗)V_{PR(\infty)}\le G(\beta^*)VPR(∞)​≤G(β∗), i.e. that the infimum in (6) is a genuine lower bound of a set bounded below, and both inequalities use the regime λ0/λ2>M\sqrt{\lambda_0/\lambda_2}>Mλ0​/λ2​​>M, in which ψ=ψ2\psi=\psi_2ψ=ψ2​. Dropping the regime hypothesis makes (8) false in general: for λ0/λ2≤M\sqrt{\lambda_0/\lambda_2}\le Mλ0​/λ2​​≤M one has ψ=ψ1\psi=\psi_1ψ=ψ1​ and h≥0h\ge0h≥0, and the right side can exceed VPR(M)=VPR(∞)V_{PR(M)}=V_{PR(\infty)}VPR(M)​=VPR(∞)​.

Formalization scope

All objects live in the namespace L0BnB.Strength. Data are X : Matrix (Fin n) (Fin p) ℝ, y : Fin n → ℝ, reals lam0 lam2 M with 0 < lam0, 0 < lam2, 0 < M as hypotheses; [p][p][p] is Fin p. Norms are explicit sums: ∥v∥22\|v\|_2^2∥v∥22​ is ∑ i, v i ^ 2, ∥β∥1\|\beta\|_1∥β∥1​ is ∑ i, |β i|, and ∥β∥∞≤M\|\beta\|_\infty\le M∥β∥∞​≤M is ∀ i, |β i| ≤ M. The regime is written M < Real.sqrt (lam0 / lam2).

Optimal values are sInf of the image of the feasible set in ℝ. Each set is nonempty (β=0\beta=0β=0, z=0z=0z=0) and bounded below by 000 under the positivity hypotheses, so sInf is the true infimum and never a junk value. VB(M)V_{B(M)}VB(M)​ is defined over pairs (β,z)(\beta,z)(β,z) with zi∈[0,1]z_i\in[0,1]zi​∈[0,1], not through HHH; (37) is a theorem. VPR(∞)V_{PR(\infty)}VPR(∞)​ is (6) as printed: the paper attributes to its reference [21] the identification of (6) with the interval relaxation of PR(∞)\mathrm{PR}(\infty)PR(∞) in (β,z,s)(\beta,z,s)(β,z,s) variables, and that identification is not part of the mission. VPR(M)V_{PR(M)}VPR(M)​ is the value of (5), which is the paper's definition; Theorem 1 (the equivalence of (5) with the (β,z,s)(\beta,z,s)(β,z,s) relaxation) belongs to a sibling mission.

The optimal solution β∗\beta^*β∗ is a binder with the hypotheses ∥β∗∥∞≤M\|\beta^*\|_\infty\le M∥β∗∥∞​≤M and F(β∗)≤F(β)F(\beta^*)\le F(\beta)F(β∗)≤F(β) for every β\betaβ in the box. A formalization in which β∗\beta^*β∗ is an arbitrary feasible point, or in which VB(M)V_{B(M)}VB(M)​ or VPR(∞)V_{PR(\infty)}VPR(∞)​ is defined through a chosen minimizer, would change the statement and is ruled out. The paper uses no O(⋅)O(\cdot)O(⋅) in this result, so no constant is instantiated.

Needed infrastructure is light: continuity of HHH and compactness of the box for the attainment in (37), and csInf lemmas on ℝ. Contributions of proofs of any milestone, and of the attainment of the infimum in (5), are welcome.

Selected references

  • H. Hazimeh, R. Mazumder, A. Saab, Sparse Regression at Scale: Branch-and-Bound rooted in First-Order Optimization, arXiv:2004.06152v2, 2021; Mathematical Programming (2022). https://arxiv.org/abs/2004.06152
  • H. Hazimeh, R. Mazumder, Fast Best Subset Selection: Coordinate Descent and Local Combinatorial Optimization Algorithms, Operations Research 68(5), 1517–1537, 2020. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.2019.1919
  • H. Dong, K. Chen, J. Linderoth, Regularization vs. Relaxation: A conic optimization perspective of statistical variable selection, arXiv e-prints, 2015 (the paper's reference [21], source of (6) for PR(∞)\mathrm{PR}(\infty)PR(∞)). https://arxiv.org/abs/1510.06083
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Convex OptimizationOptimizationStatistics·Captain: mikedeng1

Sparse Regression at Scale: Branch-and-Bound rooted in First-Order Optimization 4: Lagrangian Duals of the Reduced Relaxation and Their Closed-Form Optimal Dual VariablesResearch Paper

Motivation

Best subset selection with ridge shrinkage, the ℓ0ℓ2\ell_0\ell_2ℓ0​ℓ2​-regularized least squares problem

min⁡β∈Rp 12∥y−Xβ∥22+λ0∥β∥0+λ2∥β∥22,\min_{\beta\in\mathbb R^p}\ \tfrac12\|y-X\beta\|_2^2+\lambda_0\|\beta\|_0+\lambda_2\|\beta\|_2^2,β∈Rpmin​ 21​∥y−Xβ∥22​+λ0​∥β∥0​+λ2​∥β∥22​,

is a mixed integer program. Exact solvers for it rely on branch-and-bound: at every node of the search tree a convex relaxation is solved, and the node is discarded if a lower bound on that relaxation already exceeds the best objective value found so far. Hazimeh, Mazumder and Saab (arXiv:2004.06152v2, Mathematical Programming 2022) build such a solver, L0BnB, for instances with ppp in the millions. Its relaxations are solved only approximately, by first-order methods, and an approximate primal solution does not by itself certify a lower bound. The bound has to come from a dual feasible point. Theorem 2 of the paper supplies the duals of the node relaxation in closed form, together with explicit formulas for the optimal dual variables as functions of the primal optimum. Everything the paper later proves about the quality of its dual bounds (Section 3.2, Theorem 3) starts from these formulas.

Setting

Data are a matrix X∈Rn×pX\in\mathbb R^{n\times p}X∈Rn×p with columns X1,…,XpX_1,\dots,X_pX1​,…,Xp​, a response y∈Rny\in\mathbb R^ny∈Rn, and parameters λ0,λ2,M>0\lambda_0,\lambda_2,M>0λ0​,λ2​,M>0, where MMM bounds the coefficients. Write [p]={1,…,p}[p]=\{1,\dots,p\}[p]={1,…,p} and [a]+=max⁡{a,0}[a]_+=\max\{a,0\}[a]+​=max{a,0}. The reverse Huber penalty is B(t)=∣t∣\mathcal B(t)=|t|B(t)=∣t∣ for ∣t∣≤1|t|\le1∣t∣≤1 and B(t)=(t2+1)/2\mathcal B(t)=(t^2+1)/2B(t)=(t2+1)/2 for ∣t∣≥1|t|\ge1∣t∣≥1. Define

ψ1(b)=2λ0 B(bλ2/λ0),ψ2(b)=(λ0M+λ2M)∣b∣,\psi_1(b)=2\lambda_0\,\mathcal B\big(b\sqrt{\lambda_2/\lambda_0}\big),\qquad \psi_2(b)=\Big(\frac{\lambda_0}{M}+\lambda_2M\Big)|b|,ψ1​(b)=2λ0​B(bλ2​/λ0​​),ψ2​(b)=(Mλ0​​+λ2​M)∣b∣,

and let ψ=ψ1\psi=\psi_1ψ=ψ1​ if λ0/λ2≤M\sqrt{\lambda_0/\lambda_2}\le Mλ0​/λ2​​≤M and ψ=ψ2\psi=\psi_2ψ=ψ2​ if λ0/λ2>M\sqrt{\lambda_0/\lambda_2}>Mλ0​/λ2​​>M. The reduced relaxation (5) is

min⁡β∈Rp F(β)=12∥y−Xβ∥22+∑i∈[p]ψ(βi)s.t.∥β∥∞≤M.\min_{\beta\in\mathbb R^p}\ F(\beta)=\tfrac12\|y-X\beta\|_2^2+\sum_{i\in[p]}\psi(\beta_i)\quad\text{s.t.}\quad\|\beta\|_\infty\le M.β∈Rpmin​ F(β)=21​∥y−Xβ∥22​+i∈[p]∑​ψ(βi​)s.t.∥β∥∞​≤M.

By Theorem 1 of the paper it is the interval relaxation of the perspective formulation, projected onto β\betaβ.

The two dual objectives of Theorem 2 are, for α,ρ∈Rn\alpha,\rho\in\mathbb R^nα,ρ∈Rn and γ,μ∈Rp\gamma,\mu\in\mathbb R^pγ,μ∈Rp,

h1(α,γ)=−12∥α∥22−αTy−∑i∈[p]v(α,γi),v(α,γi)=[(αTXi−γi)24λ2−λ0]++M∣γi∣,h_1(\alpha,\gamma)=-\tfrac12\|\alpha\|_2^2-\alpha^Ty-\sum_{i\in[p]}v(\alpha,\gamma_i),\qquad v(\alpha,\gamma_i)=\Big[\frac{(\alpha^TX_i-\gamma_i)^2}{4\lambda_2}-\lambda_0\Big]_++M|\gamma_i|,h1​(α,γ)=−21​∥α∥22​−αTy−i∈[p]∑​v(α,γi​),v(α,γi​)=[4λ2​(αTXi​−γi​)2​−λ0​]+​+M∣γi​∣, h2(ρ,μ)=−12∥ρ∥22−ρTy−M∥μ∥1,h_2(\rho,\mu)=-\tfrac12\|\rho\|_2^2-\rho^Ty-M\|\mu\|_1,h2​(ρ,μ)=−21​∥ρ∥22​−ρTy−M∥μ∥1​,

where h1h_1h1​ is maximized over all of Rn×Rp\mathbb R^n\times\mathbb R^pRn×Rp (problem (20)) and h2h_2h2​ subject to ∣ρTXi∣−μi≤λ0/M+λ2M|\rho^TX_i|-\mu_i\le\lambda_0/M+\lambda_2M∣ρTXi​∣−μi​≤λ0​/M+λ2​M for i∈[p]i\in[p]i∈[p] (problem (22)). For an optimal β∗\beta^*β∗ of (5), with residual r∗=y−Xβ∗r^*=y-X\beta^*r∗=y−Xβ∗, the candidate dual variables are

α∗=ρ∗=−r∗,γi∗=1[∣βi∗∣=M](α∗TXi−2Mλ2 sign(α∗TXi)),μi∗=1[∣βi∗∣=M](∣ρ∗TXi∣−λ0/M−λ2M).\alpha^*=\rho^*=-r^*,\qquad \gamma^*_i=\mathbb 1_{[|\beta^*_i|=M]}\big(\alpha^{*T}X_i-2M\lambda_2\,\mathrm{sign}(\alpha^{*T}X_i)\big),\qquad \mu^*_i=\mathbb 1_{[|\beta^*_i|=M]}\big(|\rho^{*T}X_i|-\lambda_0/M-\lambda_2M\big).α∗=ρ∗=−r∗,γi∗​=1[∣βi∗​∣=M]​(α∗TXi​−2Mλ2​sign(α∗TXi​)),μi∗​=1[∣βi∗​∣=M]​(∣ρ∗TXi​∣−λ0​/M−λ2​M).

In the Lean development these objects are F, box, h1, v, h2, Feas22, alphaStar, gammaStar, rhoStar, muStar in the namespace L0BnB.Duality.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 2 (pp. 13–14)

Let β∗\beta^*β∗ minimize FFF over ∥β∥∞≤M\|\beta\|_\infty\le M∥β∥∞​≤M.

  • If λ0/λ2≤M\sqrt{\lambda_0/\lambda_2}\le Mλ0​/λ2​​≤M:  h1(α,γ)≤F(β)\ h_1(\alpha,\gamma)\le F(\beta) h1​(α,γ)≤F(β) for all α,γ\alpha,\gammaα,γ and all feasible β\betaβ, and h1(α∗,γ∗)=F(β∗)h_1(\alpha^*,\gamma^*)=F(\beta^*)h1​(α∗,γ∗)=F(β∗).
  • If λ0/λ2>M\sqrt{\lambda_0/\lambda_2}>Mλ0​/λ2​​>M:  h2(ρ,μ)≤F(β)\ h_2(\rho,\mu)\le F(\beta) h2​(ρ,μ)≤F(β) for all (ρ,μ)(\rho,\mu)(ρ,μ) feasible for (22) and all feasible β\betaβ; (ρ∗,μ∗)(\rho^*,\mu^*)(ρ∗,μ∗) is feasible for (22) and h2(ρ∗,μ∗)=F(β∗)h_2(\rho^*,\mu^*)=F(\beta^*)h2​(ρ∗,μ∗)=F(β∗).

This is "(20), respectively (22), is a dual of (5), and (23), respectively (24), are optimal dual variables", with the paper's remark that strong duality holds.

Milestones

  1. (45) For a∈Ra\in\mathbb Ra∈R, η≥0\eta\ge0η≥0 and D(b)=ψ1(b)+ab+η∣b∣D(b)=\psi_1(b)+ab+\eta|b|D(b)=ψ1​(b)+ab+η∣b∣, the point 000 (if 2λ0λ2+η−∣a∣≥02\sqrt{\lambda_0\lambda_2}+\eta-|a|\ge02λ0​λ2​​+η−∣a∣≥0) or −λ0/λ2 sign(a)-\sqrt{\lambda_0/\lambda_2}\,\mathrm{sign}(a)−λ0​/λ2​​sign(a) (otherwise) minimizes DDD on ∣b∣≤λ0/λ2|b|\le\sqrt{\lambda_0/\lambda_2}∣b∣≤λ0​/λ2​​.
  2. (47) If ∣a∣−η≥2λ0λ2|a|-\eta\ge2\sqrt{\lambda_0\lambda_2}∣a∣−η≥2λ0​λ2​​, then min⁡b∈RD(b)=−14λ2(∣a∣−η)2+λ0\min_{b\in\mathbb R}D(b)=-\frac{1}{4\lambda_2}(|a|-\eta)^2+\lambda_0minb∈R​D(b)=−4λ2​1​(∣a∣−η)2+λ0​.
  3. Weak duality, the first halves of both bullets of the goal.
  4. (23) h1(α∗,γ∗)=F(β∗)h_1(\alpha^*,\gamma^*)=F(\beta^*)h1​(α∗,γ∗)=F(β∗) when λ0/λ2≤M\sqrt{\lambda_0/\lambda_2}\le Mλ0​/λ2​​≤M.
  5. (24) (ρ∗,μ∗)(\rho^*,\mu^*)(ρ∗,μ∗) feasible for (22) and h2(ρ∗,μ∗)=F(β∗)h_2(\rho^*,\mu^*)=F(\beta^*)h2​(ρ∗,μ∗)=F(β∗) when λ0/λ2>M\sqrt{\lambda_0/\lambda_2}>Mλ0​/λ2​​>M.

Significance

The result. Theorem 2 turns the node relaxation of L0BnB into a pair of explicit concave maximization problems, one per regime of λ0/λ2\sqrt{\lambda_0/\lambda_2}λ0​/λ2​​ versus MMM. The dual (20) is unconstrained, so any (α,γ)(\alpha,\gamma)(α,γ) gives a valid lower bound; the paper's dual bounds (25)–(28) evaluate h1h_1h1​ or h2h_2h2​ at α^=−r^\hat\alpha=-\hat rα^=−r^ built from an inexact primal solution β^\hat\betaβ^​, with the remaining variable chosen in closed form. The formulas (23)–(24) explain why this choice is right: at the exact optimum it recovers the primal value. Theorem 3 of the paper, which bounds the loss of this dual bound by a quantity depending on the support size rather than on ppp, compares v(α^,γ^i)v(\hat\alpha,\hat\gamma_i)v(α^,γ^​i​) to v(α∗,γi∗)v(\alpha^*,\gamma^*_i)v(α∗,γi∗​) term by term and therefore depends on (23).

Formalizing it. The paper proves the case λ0/λ2≤M\sqrt{\lambda_0/\lambda_2}\le Mλ0​/λ2​​≤M in Appendix A and omits the proof of the case λ0/λ2>M\sqrt{\lambda_0/\lambda_2}>Mλ0​/λ2​​>M ("follows along the lines similar to what was shown above"). The appendix also contains an intermediate formula for the coordinate minimum, −[(∣αTXi∣−ηi)2/(4λ2)−λ0]+-[(|\alpha^TX_i|-\eta_i)^2/(4\lambda_2)-\lambda_0]_+−[(∣αTXi​∣−ηi​)2/(4λ2​)−λ0​]+​, that is incorrect when ηi\eta_iηi​ is large; the final dual (49) = (20) is nevertheless correct. A machine-checked proof supplies the omitted case and settles the correct statement. To our knowledge neither half has been formalized.

Difficulty

The dual objective (20) hides the box constraint inside the term M∣γi∣M|\gamma_i|M∣γi​∣ and the penalty inside [ ⋅ ]+[\,\cdot\,]_+[⋅]+​, and the reverse Huber penalty is piecewise, so even the weak-duality half has to handle both pieces of ψ1\psi_1ψ1​ and the junction ∣b∣=λ0/λ2|b|=\sqrt{\lambda_0/\lambda_2}∣b∣=λ0​/λ2​​. The attainment half is where the work lies: it needs the optimality conditions of a nonsmooth convex problem over a box, at coordinates where βi∗=0\beta^*_i=0βi∗​=0 (where ψ\psiψ is not differentiable), where ∣βi∗∣=M|\beta^*_i|=M∣βi∗​∣=M (where the box is active), and where both may interact with the regime boundary λ0/λ2=M\sqrt{\lambda_0/\lambda_2}=Mλ0​/λ2​​=M. The natural first idea, to read (23) off the Lagrangian derivation in the paper, does not yield a proof: that derivation assumes a dual optimum (α∗,η∗)(\alpha^*,\eta^*)(α∗,η∗) exists and relates it to β∗\beta^*β∗ by complementary slackness, whereas the theorem asserts an identity for the explicit (α∗,γ∗)(\alpha^*,\gamma^*)(α∗,γ∗) built from β∗\beta^*β∗ alone.

Formalization scope

Data are X : Matrix (Fin n) (Fin p) ℝ, y : Fin n → ℝ and reals lam0 lam2 M with 0 < lam0, 0 < lam2, 0 < M as hypotheses; [p][p][p] is Fin p. Norms and inner products are explicit sums: αTXi=∑rαrXri\alpha^TX_i=\sum_r\alpha_rX_{ri}αTXi​=∑r​αr​Xri​, ∥α∥22=∑rαr2\|\alpha\|_2^2=\sum_r\alpha_r^2∥α∥22​=∑r​αr2​, ∥μ∥1=∑i∣μi∣\|\mu\|_1=\sum_i|\mu_i|∥μ∥1​=∑i​∣μi​∣, [a]+=max⁡{a,0}[a]_+=\max\{a,0\}[a]+​=max{a,0}, and ∥β∥∞≤M\|\beta\|_\infty\le M∥β∥∞​≤M is ∣βi∣≤M|\beta_i|\le M∣βi​∣≤M for every iii. The regime split is written λ0/λ2≤M\sqrt{\lambda_0/\lambda_2}\le Mλ0​/λ2​​≤M versus M<λ0/λ2M<\sqrt{\lambda_0/\lambda_2}M<λ0​/λ2​​. sign is Real.sign, with sign(0)=0\mathrm{sign}(0)=0sign(0)=0; where it is evaluated in (23) the argument is nonzero at an optimum. The optimal solution β∗\beta^*β∗ is a hypothesis (feasible and minimizing FFF over the box); its existence is not part of the statements. The coordinate milestones (45) and (47) are stated for a scalar aaa standing for αTXi\alpha^TX_iαTXi​ and a multiplier η≥0\eta\ge0η≥0. No normalization of XXX or yyy is assumed: the unit-norm convention that opens Section 3 is not used by Theorem 2. The paper writes no O(⋅)O(\cdot)O(⋅) in these results, so no constants are instantiated.

"A dual is given by" is formalized as weak duality over all dual-feasible points together with equality at the explicit dual variables. Weak duality alone would not be Theorem 2, and neither would the equality alone; the goal requires both in both regimes. Uniqueness of the dual optimum is not claimed.

A complete development needs elementary convex analysis of the scalar penalty ψ1\psi_1ψ1​ (its conjugate and subdifferential), first-order optimality conditions for a convex function over a box in Rp\mathbb R^pRp, and finite-sum bookkeeping. The scalar facts about the reverse Huber penalty are reusable in the companion missions on the reduced relaxation and on dual-bound quality. Contributions to any milestone, or a direct proof of the goal, are welcome.

Selected references

  • H. Hazimeh, R. Mazumder, A. Saab, Sparse Regression at Scale: Branch-and-Bound rooted in First-Order Optimization, arXiv:2004.06152v2 (2021); Mathematical Programming (2022). https://arxiv.org/abs/2004.06152v2
  • S. Boyd, L. Vandenberghe, Convex Optimization, Cambridge University Press, 2004. https://web.stanford.edu/~boyd/cvxbook/
  • A. B. Owen, A robust hybrid of lasso and ridge regression, Contemporary Mathematics 443, 59–72, 2007. https://doi.org/10.1090/conm/443/08555
  • D. Bertsimas, A. King, R. Mazumder, Best subset selection via a modern optimization lens, Annals of Statistics 44(2), 813–852, 2016. https://doi.org/10.1214/15-AOS1388
  • H. Hazimeh, R. Mazumder, Fast best subset selection: coordinate descent and local combinatorial optimization algorithms, Operations Research 68(5), 1517–1537, 2020. https://arxiv.org/abs/1803.01454
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Optimal TransportOptimizationProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

On a Problem of Optimal Transport Under Marginal Martingale Constraints 2: The Shadow of γ1 + γ2 in ν Is the Shadow of γ1 Plus the Shadow of γ2 in What RemainsResearch Paper

Motivation

The martingale optimal transport problem asks for a coupling of two probability measures μ,ν\mu,\nuμ,ν on R\mathbb RR that is the law of a one-step martingale and minimizes an expected cost. It arises in robust finance, where the marginals are the risk-neutral laws of an asset at two dates implied by option prices, and model-independent price bounds for exotic options are the extreme values of the problem (Beiglböck, Henry-Labordère, Penkner 2013; Galichon, Henry-Labordère, Touzi 2014).

Beiglböck and Juillet (arXiv:1208.1509v2, Ann. Probab. 44(1), 2016) construct a canonical martingale coupling, the left-curtain coupling, which plays the role that the monotone (quantile) coupling plays in classical transport. Its construction rests on one object, the shadow of a measure in another, and on one structural property of it: shadows are associative. This mission formalizes that property, Theorem 4.8 of the paper, together with the chain of results in §2.3 and §4.1–4.3 on which it rests.

Setting

Let M\mathcal MM be the set of finite Borel measures on R\mathbb RR with finite first moment, of any total mass. For μ,ν∈M\mu,\nu\in\mathcal Mμ,ν∈M:

  • the convex order μ⪯Cν\mu\preceq_C\nuμ⪯C​ν holds if ∫φ dμ≤∫φ dν\int\varphi\,d\mu\le\int\varphi\,d\nu∫φdμ≤∫φdν for every convex φ:R→R\varphi:\mathbb R\to\mathbb Rφ:R→R (this forces equal masses and equal barycentres);
  • the extended convex order μ⪯Eν\mu\preceq_E\nuμ⪯E​ν holds if the same inequality holds for every nonnegative convex φ\varphiφ; it holds both when μ⪯Cν\mu\preceq_C\nuμ⪯C​ν and when μ≤ν\mu\le\nuμ≤ν setwise;
  • the potential function of μ\muμ is uμ(x)=∫∣y−x∣ dμ(y)u_\mu(x)=\int|y-x|\,d\mu(y)uμ​(x)=∫∣y−x∣dμ(y);
  • a sequence (νn)(\nu_n)(νn​) converges weakly in M\mathcal MM to ν\nuν if ∫f dνn→∫f dν\int f\,d\nu_n\to\int f\,d\nu∫fdνn​→∫fdν for every continuous bounded fff and ∫∣x∣ dνn→∫∣x∣ dν\int|x|\,d\nu_n\to\int|x|\,d\nu∫∣x∣dνn​→∫∣x∣dν.

If μ⪯Eν\mu\preceq_E\nuμ⪯E​ν, a shadow of μ\muμ in ν\nuν is a measure η\etaη with (i) η≤ν\eta\le\nuη≤ν, (ii) μ⪯Cη\mu\preceq_C\etaμ⪯C​η, and (iii) η⪯Cη′\eta\preceq_C\eta'η⪯C​η′ for every η′\eta'η′ satisfying (i) and (ii). Lemma 4.6 of the paper shows that it exists and is unique; it is written Sν(μ)S^\nu(\mu)Sν(μ). It is the least spread-out part of ν\nuν into which μ\muμ can be transported by a martingale. An atom is a measure α δx\alpha\,\delta_xαδx​ with α≥0\alpha\ge0α≥0.

In the Lean development these objects are InM, ConvexLE, ExtConvexLE, potential, ConvergesInM and the predicate IsShadow ν μ η, in the namespace MartOT.Shadow.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 4.8 (shadow of a sum), p. 25

For γ1,γ2,ν∈M\gamma_1,\gamma_2,\nu\in\mathcal Mγ1​,γ2​,ν∈M with γ1+γ2⪯Eν\gamma_1+\gamma_2\preceq_E\nuγ1​+γ2​⪯E​ν,

γ2⪯Eν−Sν(γ1)andSν(γ1+γ2)=Sν(γ1)+Sν−Sν(γ1)(γ2).\gamma_2\preceq_E\nu-S^\nu(\gamma_1)\qquad\text{and}\qquad S^\nu(\gamma_1+\gamma_2)=S^\nu(\gamma_1)+S^{\nu-S^\nu(\gamma_1)}(\gamma_2).γ2​⪯E​ν−Sν(γ1​)andSν(γ1​+γ2​)=Sν(γ1​)+Sν−Sν(γ1​)(γ2​).

Milestones, in attack order

  1. Proposition 4.2 (p. 21): for equal masses, μ⪯Cν  ⟺  uμ≤uν\mu\preceq_C\nu\iff u_\mu\le u_\nuμ⪯C​ν⟺uμ​≤uν​; μ≤ν  ⟺  uν−uμ\mu\le\nu\iff u_\nu-u_\muμ≤ν⟺uν​−uμ​ is convex; for fixed mass and mean, convergence in M\mathcal MM is pointwise convergence of potential functions.
  2. Proposition 4.4 (p. 21): μ⪯Eν\mu\preceq_E\nuμ⪯E​ν implies μ⪯Cθ\mu\preceq_C\thetaμ⪯C​θ for some θ≤ν\theta\le\nuθ≤ν.
  3. Lemma 4.6 (p. 23): existence, uniqueness and property (iii′) of the shadow.
  4. Example 4.7 (p. 24): the shadow of an atom is the restriction of ν\nuν between two quantiles.
  5. Lemma 4.11 (p. 27): η−Sη(δ)≤ν−Sν(δ)\eta-S^\eta(\delta)\le\nu-S^\nu(\delta)η−Sη(δ)≤ν−Sν(δ) for an atom δ⪯Eη≤ν\delta\preceq_E\eta\le\nuδ⪯E​η≤ν.
  6. Lemma 4.12 (p. 27): the goal when γ1\gamma_1γ1​ is an atom.
  7. Lemma 4.13 (p. 28): the shadow of finitely many atoms, built one atom at a time.
  8. Lemma 2.9 (p. 15): approximation of γ∈M\gamma\in\mathcal Mγ∈M by a ⪯C\preceq_C⪯C​-increasing sequence of finitely supported measures below it.
  9. Proposition 4.15 (p. 29): shadows pass to limits of ⪯C\preceq_C⪯C​-increasing sequences.
  10. Lemma 4.16 (p. 29): the goal when γ2\gamma_2γ2​ is an atom, with δ⪯ESν(γ+δ)−Sν(γ)\delta\preceq_E S^\nu(\gamma+\delta)-S^\nu(\gamma)δ⪯E​Sν(γ+δ)−Sν(γ).

Significance

Theorem 4.8 is what makes the left-curtain coupling well defined and consistent. That coupling is the martingale plan which, for every xxx, sends μ∣]−∞,x]\mu|_{]-\infty,x]}μ∣]−∞,x]​ onto Sν(μ∣]−∞,x])S^\nu(\mu|_{]-\infty,x]})Sν(μ∣]−∞,x]​) (Theorem 4.18). Associativity says that the parts of ν\nuν assigned to μ∣]−∞,x]\mu|_{]-\infty,x]}μ∣]−∞,x]​ and to μ∣]x,x′]\mu|_{]x,x']}μ∣]x,x′]​ fit together into the part assigned to μ∣]−∞,x′]\mu|_{]-\infty,x']}μ∣]−∞,x′]​, so the family of shadows defines a single coupling. The uniqueness of left-monotone martingale plans and the optimality of the left-curtain coupling for the costs h(y−x)h(y-x)h(y−x) with h′h'h′ strictly convex, both later results of the paper, rest on it.

The result is proved in the paper. As far as is known it has no machine-checked proof. This mission produces a statement of it, and of the supporting results, in terms of measures of arbitrary finite mass with no reference to a chosen shadow function. A complete development would give Lean a theory of the convex order on finite measures through potential functions, which is reusable well beyond martingale transport.

Difficulty

For finitely atomic measures the identity follows by adding one atom at a time (Lemmas 4.12, 4.13, 4.16), but even the single-atom step needs a monotonicity property of shadows of atoms in varying targets (Lemma 4.11), and that property comes from their explicit description through quantile functions. The general case cannot be obtained by a direct manipulation of the minimality property (iii): minimality of Sν(γ1)S^\nu(\gamma_1)Sν(γ1​) and of Sν−Sν(γ1)(γ2)S^{\nu-S^\nu(\gamma_1)}(\gamma_2)Sν−Sν(γ1​)(γ2​) separately says nothing obvious about minimality of their sum among measures dominating γ1+γ2\gamma_1+\gamma_2γ1​+γ2​, because a competitor for the sum need not split into competitors for the summands. The paper passes to the limit along convex-order approximations, which requires a continuity property of the shadow (Proposition 4.15) in the topology of M\mathcal MM.

Formalization scope

  • Measures are MeasureTheory.Measure ℝ with membership in M\mathcal MM stated explicitly (InM: finite measure, identity integrable). Masses are arbitrary; nothing is normalized to probability measures.
  • Integrals of convex test functions are taken in EReal through the published ModelRiskOT.Duality.extIntegral (positive minus negative part), never as Bochner integrals, so a non-integrable test function cannot produce a junk value. The extended convex order uses lower Lebesgue integrals of nonnegative functions.
  • Shadows are the predicate IsShadow ν μ η, never a function built by choice. Every statement about Sν(⋅)S^\nu(\cdot)Sν(⋅) quantifies over all shadows, which with existence and uniqueness (Lemma 4.6, a milestone) is the paper's statement. Uniqueness is part of the conclusion of Lemma 4.6 and is not assumed elsewhere.
  • ν−η\nu-\etaν−η is Mathlib's truncated subtraction of measures. It is used only where η≤ν\eta\le\nuη≤ν is guaranteed by property (i) of a shadow. Lemma 4.16 additionally asserts Sν(γ)≤Sν(γ+δ)S^\nu(\gamma)\le S^\nu(\gamma+\delta)Sν(γ)≤Sν(γ+δ), so that the difference there is a genuine one.
  • Not a trivialization: in the goal, neither η1+η2≤ν\eta_1+\eta_2\le\nuη1​+η2​≤ν nor γ1+γ2⪯Cη1+η2\gamma_1+\gamma_2\preceq_C\eta_1+\eta_2γ1​+γ2​⪯C​η1​+η2​ nor the minimality of η1+η2\eta_1+\eta_2η1​+η2​ is assumed; all three are the content of the conclusion IsShadow ν (γ1 + γ2) (η1 + η2).
  • Added relative to the page: Lemma 4.11 states ν∈M\nu\in\mathcal Mν∈M, which the paper takes from context. Proposition 4.2's third bullet is split into an equivalence for each candidate limit and a uniqueness clause, which together are equivalent to the printed sentence. Lemma 4.10 (continuity of ν↦Sν(δ)\nu\mapsto S^\nu(\delta)ν↦Sν(δ) in the Kantorovich metric) and Proposition 4.17 are not included.
  • Needed infrastructure: potential functions and their second distributional derivatives, quantile functions of finite measures, weak convergence of finite measures with first moments. Contributions to any of these are welcome.

Selected references

  • M. Beiglböck, N. Juillet, On a problem of optimal transport under marginal martingale constraints, Ann. Probab. 44(1), 42–106, 2016. arXiv:1208.1509v2, doi:10.1214/14-AOP966
  • M. Beiglböck, P. Henry-Labordère, F. Penkner, Model-independent bounds for option prices — a mass transport approach, Finance Stoch. 17(3), 477–501, 2013. doi:10.1007/s00780-013-0205-8
  • A. Galichon, P. Henry-Labordère, N. Touzi, A stochastic control approach to no-arbitrage bounds given marginals, with an application to lookback options, Ann. Appl. Probab. 24(1), 312–336, 2014. doi:10.1214/13-AAP925
  • V. Strassen, The existence of probability measures with given marginals, Ann. Math. Statist. 36, 423–439, 1965. doi:10.1214/aoms/1177700153
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Optimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Approximation Algorithms for Product Framing and Pricing 3: Under MNL Pricing, Optimal Framing Fills Pages in Descending Quality Order with One Price per PageResearch Paper

Motivation

Online retailers show their catalogue on a sequence of pages, and most visitors never reach the last one. Which products appear on the first page, and at what prices, therefore decides what a typical consumer can buy at all. Gallego, Li, Truong and Wang (Operations Research, 2020) model this as the product framing problem: the consideration set of a consumer is the set of products on the pages that consumer is willing to view, and the number of pages viewed is random. Their Section 7 adds prices to the problem and asks how a retailer should frame and price jointly when consumers choose by the multinomial logit (MNL) model.

The question connects two literatures. In assortment pricing under MNL with a common price sensitivity, the optimal prices of all offered products are known to be equal (Anderson, de Palma and Thisse 1992; Gallego and Stefanescu, as cited on p. 16 of the paper), and the nested-logit extension of Gallego and Wang (Operations Research, 2014) keeps an adjusted markup constant across nests. In search and ranking models, the order in which products are shown changes which ones are bought. The paper's structural results say what survives of the equal-price rule once consideration sets are nested by page, and which products belong on the early pages.

Setting

There are nnn products, i∈[n]={1,…,n}i \in [n] = \{1,\dots,n\}i∈[n]={1,…,n}, and mmm pages, each holding at most ppp products. A framing places each product on one page x(i)∈[m]x(i)\in[m]x(i)∈[m] or leaves it undisplayed. A consumer views the first XXX pages, where X∈[m]X\in[m]X∈[m] is random with law λ(x)=P[X=x]\lambda(x)=\mathbf P[X=x]λ(x)=P[X=x], independent of the framing. A consumer who views xxx pages considers S(x)S(x)S(x), the products on pages 1,…,x1,\dots,x1,…,x, so S(1)⊆S(2)⊆⋯⊆S(m)S(1)\subseteq S(2)\subseteq\cdots\subseteq S(m)S(1)⊆S(2)⊆⋯⊆S(m).

Product iii has a quality ai∈Ra_i\in\mathbb Rai​∈R and a price ri∈Rr_i\in\mathbb Rri​∈R, and the price sensitivity is β>0\beta>0β>0. The mean utility of product iii is ui=ai−βriu_i=a_i-\beta r_iui​=ai​−βri​, and the outside option has utility u0=0u_0=0u0​=0. Under the MNL model a consumer with consideration set SSS buys i∈Si\in Si∈S with probability

P(i,S)=eui1+∑k∈Seuk,P(i,S)=\frac{e^{u_i}}{1+\sum_{k\in S}e^{u_k}},P(i,S)=1+∑k∈S​euk​eui​​,

and P(i,S)=0P(i,S)=0P(i,S)=0 for i∉Si\notin Si∈/S. The expected revenue from that consumer is R(r∣S)=∑i∈SriP(i,S)R(r\mid S)=\sum_{i\in S}r_iP(i,S)R(r∣S)=∑i∈S​ri​P(i,S), and the total expected revenue of a framing and a price vector is

E[R(r∣S(X))]=∑x=1mλ(x) R(r∣S(x)).\mathbf E\big[R(r\mid S(X))\big]=\sum_{x=1}^m\lambda(x)\,R\big(r\mid S(x)\big).E[R(r∣S(X))]=x=1∑m​λ(x)R(r∣S(x)).

For a fixed framing, R(a)R(a)R(a) denotes the optimal value of this quantity over all price vectors, as a function of the quality vector aaa.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 6 (p. 17)

The goal is the existence of an optimal joint solution with the paper's structure: there are a feasible framing and prices r∈Rnr\in\mathbb R^nr∈Rn such that no feasible framing with any prices earns more, and

∣S(x)∣=min⁡(n,  x p)for all x∈[m],ak≤ai  whenever i is displayed and k is undisplayed or on a later page.|S(x)|=\min(n,\;x\,p)\quad\text{for all }x\in[m],\qquad a_k\le a_i\ \text{ whenever } i \text{ is displayed and } k \text{ is undisplayed or on a later page.}∣S(x)∣=min(n,xp)for all x∈[m],ak​≤ai​  whenever i is displayed and k is undisplayed or on a later page.

Pages are filled in order until all products are displayed, and the products appear in descending order of quality.

Milestones

  1. (15), p. 43. The partial derivative of the total expected revenue in the price of a displayed product:
∂ E[R(r∣S(X))]∂ri=β∑l=x(i)mλ(l)P(i,S(l)){1β+R(r∣S(l))−ri}.\frac{\partial\,\mathbf E[R(r\mid S(X))]}{\partial r_i}=\beta\sum_{l=x(i)}^m\lambda(l)P\big(i,S(l)\big)\Big\{\tfrac1\beta+R\big(r\mid S(l)\big)-r_i\Big\}.∂ri​∂E[R(r∣S(X))]​=βl=x(i)∑m​λ(l)P(i,S(l)){β1​+R(r∣S(l))−ri​}.
  1. (17), p. 43. At every optimal price vector, each displayed price is 1/β1/\beta1/β plus a weighted average of the revenues R(r∣S(l))R(r\mid S(l))R(r∣S(l)), l≥x(i)l\ge x(i)l≥x(i).
  2. Theorem 5, p. 16. For a fixed framing, every optimal price vector is constant on each page, ri=θx(i)r_i=\theta_{x(i)}ri​=θx(i)​, with θ1≤θ2≤⋯≤θm\theta_1\le\theta_2\le\cdots\le\theta_mθ1​≤θ2​≤⋯≤θm​.
  3. (19), p. 44. The optimal value R(a)R(a)R(a) is nondecreasing in the quality of any displayed product.

Significance

Theorem 5 reduces the pricing problem of a fixed framing from nnn prices to mmm page prices and says that later pages carry higher prices; this is the page-level analogue of the constant-markup property of MNL pricing, and it runs opposite to the ordering found in oligopoly search models (Arbatskaya 2007). Theorem 6 removes the framing decision almost entirely: a joint optimum is obtained by sorting the products by quality and filling pages in that order, leaving only page prices to choose. The paper's approximation algorithm for joint pricing and framing (Theorem 7, NEST-P, with guarantee 6/π26/\pi^26/π2) starts from this structure.

None of these statements has a machine-checked proof. A complete development would give the first formal treatment of MNL price optimization with nested consideration sets, including the existence of optimal prices, which the paper takes for granted. The paper's argument for the monotonicity θ1≤⋯≤θm\theta_1\le\cdots\le\theta_mθ1​≤⋯≤θm​ and its envelope-theorem step (19) are informal; a formal proof has to supply both.

Difficulty

The expected revenue is not concave in the prices, even with two products on two pages (Example 1, p. 17), so the first-order condition alone does not identify the optimum, and existence of an optimal price vector has to be argued from the behaviour of the revenue as prices tend to ±∞\pm\infty±∞. The within-page equality of prices follows from the first-order condition, but the ordering of page prices needs a global comparison of revenues across consideration sets. In Theorem 6, the obvious exchange argument (swap a higher-quality product forward) does not obviously keep revenue from decreasing when the swapped products have different prices; the paper splits into two cases, and in one of them the improvement comes from continuously moving qualities, which requires control of the optimal value as a function of aaa rather than of a fixed price vector.

Formalization scope

Products are Fin n, pages are the natural numbers 1,…,m1,\dots,m1,…,m with m≥1m\ge1m≥1, and capacities satisfy p≥1p\ge1p≥1. A framing is f : Fin n → ℕ with page f i ∈ [m] for displayed products and f i = 0 for undisplayed ones (the paper's x(i)=m+1x(i)=m+1x(i)=m+1); feasibility means at most ppp products per page. The law of XXX is a nonnegative function on [m][m][m] summing to one. Prices are finite reals: the paper's priced-out products (ri=+∞r_i=+\inftyri​=+∞) coincide with undisplayed ones, which the framing already allows. "Descending order" and "increases" are read weakly.

Theorem 5 and (17) are stated for every maximizing price vector and only for products on pages that some consumer reaches (Λ(x)=P[X≥x]>0\Lambda(x)=\mathbf P[X\ge x]>0Λ(x)=P[X≥x]>0), a restriction the paper never discusses: a product on a page no consumer reaches can carry any price at an optimum. They do not assert that a maximizer exists. Theorem 6 is read existentially ("some optimal solution has this structure"); the universal reading is false when some λ(x)=0\lambda(x)=0λ(x)=0, because exchanging products between pages xxx and x+1x+1x+1 then changes no revenue. (19) is formalized as its stated consequence, the monotonicity of the optimal value R(a)=sup⁡rE[R(r∣S(X))]R(a)=\sup_r\mathbf E[R(r\mid S(X))]R(a)=supr​E[R(r∣S(X))], together with the boundedness of the revenues; the envelope identity itself would need a differentiable selection of optimal prices that the paper does not establish.

A trivializing formalization of the goal would take the optimum over framings that are already sorted, over a single fixed framing, or over prices fixed in advance; the goal's optimality clause ranges over all feasible framings and all real price vectors. The development needs elementary calculus of the MNL revenue (HasDerivAt, Real.exp), finite sums over pages, and a compactness or limiting argument for the existence of optimal prices. Pages are those of the authors' accepted manuscript, which differ from the journal typesetting. Proofs of any milestone, and lemmas on MNL pricing reusable beyond this paper (boundedness of R(r∣S)R(r\mid S)R(r∣S), existence of optimal MNL prices, the constant-price property for a single assortment), are welcome.

Selected references

  • G. Gallego, A. Li, V.-A. Truong, X. Wang, Approximation Algorithms for Product Framing and Pricing, Operations Research 68(1), 2020. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.2019.1875
  • S. P. Anderson, A. de Palma, J.-F. Thisse, Discrete Choice Theory of Product Differentiation, MIT Press, 1992 (book; cited by the paper for the equal-price property of MNL pricing).
  • G. Gallego, R. Wang, Multiproduct Price Optimization and Competition under the Nested Logit Model with Product-Differentiated Price Sensitivities, Operations Research 62(2), 2014. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.2013.1249
  • M. Arbatskaya, Ordered Search, The RAND Journal of Economics 38(1), 2007. http://www.jstor.org/stable/25046295
9 thms1 active userReviewed
Optimal TransportOptimizationProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

On a Problem of Optimal Transport Under Marginal Martingale Constraints 7: For c = |y − x| and Continuous µ the Optimizer Is Unique, Keeps µ ∧ ν in Place, Splits the Rest in TwoResearch Paper

Motivation

A martingale transport plan between two laws μ\muμ and ν\nuν on R\mathbb RR is a joint law of a pair (X,Y)(X,Y)(X,Y) with X∼μX\sim\muX∼μ, Y∼νY\sim\nuY∼ν and E[Y∣X]=XE[Y\mid X]=XE[Y∣X]=X. Minimizing or maximizing E[c(X,Y)]E[c(X,Y)]E[c(X,Y)] over such plans gives the model-independent price bounds of an option with payoff c(X,Y)c(X,Y)c(X,Y) when the market quotes vanilla options at two maturities, and so fixes the marginal laws μ\muμ and ν\nuν of the asset price. For the forward-starting straddle, with payoff ∣Y−X∣|Y-X|∣Y−X∣, the two bounds are the problems with costs −∣y−x∣-|y-x|−∣y−x∣ and ∣y−x∣|y-x|∣y−x∣.

  • 1965: Strassen (doi:10.1214/aoms/1177700153) shows that martingale plans between μ\muμ and ν\nuν exist if and only if μ\muμ and ν\nuν are in convex order.
  • 2012: Hobson and Neuberger (doi:10.1111/j.1467-9965.2010.00473.x) identify the optimizer for −∣y−x∣-|y-x|−∣y−x∣ through a construction of dual maximizers, under conditions on the marginals.
  • 2012: Hobson and Klimmek communicate a description of the optimizer for +∣y−x∣+|y-x|+∣y−x∣ to Beiglböck and Juillet, cited there as private communication (arXiv:1208.1509v2, §7.4 and reference 15).
  • 2016: Beiglböck and Juillet (arXiv:1208.1509v2) prove existence, uniqueness and the shape of the optimizer for ∣y−x∣|y-x|∣y−x∣ for every continuous starting law, using only the primal problem and their variational lemma.

Setting

μ\muμ and ν\nuν are Borel probability measures on R\mathbb RR with finite first moments, in convex order: ∫φ dμ≤∫φ dν\int\varphi\,d\mu\le\int\varphi\,d\nu∫φdμ≤∫φdν for every convex φ:R→R\varphi:\mathbb R\to\mathbb Rφ:R→R (Definition 2.1). ΠM(μ,ν)\Pi_M(\mu,\nu)ΠM​(μ,ν) is the set of measures π\piπ on R2\mathbb R^2R2 with marginals μ\muμ and ν\nuν such that y−xy-xy−x is π\piπ-integrable and

∫ρ(x) (y−x) dπ(x,y)=0for every bounded Borel ρ,\int\rho(x)\,(y-x)\,d\pi(x,y)=0\qquad\text{for every bounded Borel }\rho,∫ρ(x)(y−x)dπ(x,y)=0for every bounded Borel ρ,

which is the paper's characterization (4) of "the disintegration πx\pi_xπx​ has barycentre xxx". For the cost c(x,y)=∣y−x∣c(x,y)=|y-x|c(x,y)=∣y−x∣ the cost of a plan is ∫∣y−x∣ dπ∈[0,∞)\int|y-x|\,d\pi\in[0,\infty)∫∣y−x∣dπ∈[0,∞), and π\piπ is optimal if it minimizes this over ΠM(μ,ν)\Pi_M(\mu,\nu)ΠM​(μ,ν). μ\muμ is continuous if μ({x})=0\mu(\{x\})=0μ({x})=0 for every xxx.

μ∧ν\mu\wedge\nuμ∧ν is the largest measure below both μ\muμ and ν\nuν (Example 2.5); (Id⊗Id)#η(\mathrm{Id}\otimes\mathrm{Id})_\#\eta(Id⊗Id)#​η is the image of η\etaη under x↦(x,x)x\mapsto(x,x)x↦(x,x), a measure on the diagonal Δ={(x,x)}\Delta=\{(x,x)\}Δ={(x,x)}. For Γ⊆R2\Gamma\subseteq\mathbb R^2Γ⊆R2, Γx={y:(x,y)∈Γ}\Gamma_x=\{y:(x,y)\in\Gamma\}Γx​={y:(x,y)∈Γ}, and graph⁡(T)={(x,T(x))}\operatorname{graph}(T)=\{(x,T(x))\}graph(T)={(x,T(x))}.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 7.4 (p. 43)

If μ⪯Cν\mu\preceq_C\nuμ⪯C​ν and μ\muμ is continuous, there is a unique optimal πabs∈ΠM(μ,ν)\pi_{\mathrm{abs}}\in\Pi_M(\mu,\nu)πabs​∈ΠM​(μ,ν) for c(x,y)=∣y−x∣c(x,y)=|y-x|c(x,y)=∣y−x∣; it is concentrated on a set Γ\GammaΓ with ∣Γx∣≤3|\Gamma_x|\le3∣Γx​∣≤3 for every xxx; and

πabs=(Id⊗Id)#(μ∧ν)+πgo,πgo concentrated on graph⁡(T1)∪graph⁡(T2)\pi_{\mathrm{abs}}=(\mathrm{Id}\otimes\mathrm{Id})_\#(\mu\wedge\nu)+\pi_{\mathrm{go}},\qquad \pi_{\mathrm{go}}\ \text{concentrated on}\ \operatorname{graph}(T_1)\cup\operatorname{graph}(T_2)πabs​=(Id⊗Id)#​(μ∧ν)+πgo​,πgo​ concentrated on graph(T1​)∪graph(T2​)

for some functions T1,T2:R→RT_1,T_2:\mathbb R\to\mathbb RT1​,T2​:R→R.

Milestones, in attack order

  1. Attainment of the minimum (§2.1, pp. 10–11).
  2. Lemma 1.11, the variational lemma (p. 8).
  3. Lemma 7.5, the sign of a three-point cost difference (pp. 43–44).
  4. The forbidden configurations (24) on a finitely optimal set (p. 45).
  5. The static part: π∣Δ=(Id⊗Id)#(μ∧ν)\pi|_\Delta=(\mathrm{Id}\otimes\mathrm{Id})_\#(\mu\wedge\nu)π∣Δ​=(Id⊗Id)#​(μ∧ν) for every optimal π\piπ (pp. 45–46).
  6. Lemma 3.2, accumulation of uncountably many large fibres (p. 19).
  7. At most two off-diagonal points per fibre (p. 46).
  8. The reduced problem between μ−μ∧ν\mu-\mu\wedge\nuμ−μ∧ν and ν−μ∧ν\nu-\mu\wedge\nuν−μ∧ν (p. 46).
  9. Lemma 5.5, two Borel graphs (p. 35), and Lemma 5.6, uniqueness from at most two points per fibre (p. 36).

Significance

The theorem identifies the lower model-independent bound for the forward-starting straddle: the extremal model keeps the mass that μ\muμ and ν\nuν share in place and splits every other starting point between at most two destinations. With Theorem 7.3 for −∣y−x∣-|y-x|−∣y−x∣ it settles both bounds for continuous μ\muμ without any dual attainment, which is known to fail in general. The decomposition into a static part μ∧ν\mu\wedge\nuμ∧ν and a part between marginals with μˉ∧νˉ=0\bar\mu\wedge\bar\nu=0μˉ​∧νˉ=0 is a reduction that applies to other costs vanishing on the diagonal.

The result is proved in the paper; nothing in it has been machine-checked. The mission produces a formal statement of Theorem 7.4 and of each step of its proof, a Lean vocabulary for martingale transport on R\mathbb RR shared with the other missions of this series, and the general measure-theoretic lemmas (3.2, 5.5, 5.6) that the structure theorems of the paper all use.

Difficulty

Lemma 7.5 and (24) are elementary; the work lies in passing from them to statements about measures. The variational lemma needs Kellerer's duality-type result for finitely optimal sets. The static part requires showing that a positive defect κ=μ∧ν−π(Δ-projection)\kappa=\mu\wedge\nu-\pi(\Delta\text{-projection})κ=μ∧ν−π(Δ-projection) produces, at κ\kappaκ-almost every point, a forbidden configuration, which uses the disintegration of the moving part. The cardinality bound requires the accumulation argument of Lemma 3.2, and the forbidden configurations only hold for points that lie strictly inside the range of their own fibre, which the martingale condition supplies only almost everywhere. Uniqueness does not follow from strict convexity of a cost functional, since the problem is linear: it comes from the two-graph structure through Lemma 5.6, and it fails if μ\muμ has atoms (Remark 7.7).

Formalization scope

Measures are Mathlib Measure ℝ and Measure (ℝ × ℝ) with Borel σ-algebras. Costs are integrals in the extended reals through the published ModelRiskOT.Duality.extIntegral; the cost ∣y−x∣|y-x|∣y−x∣ is nonnegative and, under finite first moments, finite. Martingale plans are encoded by condition (4), competitors by the same device. μ∧ν\mu\wedge\nuμ∧ν is the infimum in Mathlib's complete lattice of measures, measure subtraction is Mathlib's truncated subtraction, cardinalities of fibres are Set.encard in N∪{∞}\mathbb N\cup\{\infty\}N∪{∞}, and "concentrated on AAA" is π(Ac)=0\pi(A^c)=0π(Ac)=0. Continuity of μ\muμ is μ({x})=0\mu(\{x\})=0μ({x})=0 for all xxx. As on the page, Γ\GammaΓ, T1T_1T1​ and T2T_2T2​ in the goal carry no measurability requirement.

Two choices differ from a literal reading and are disclosed in the items: (24) carries the hypothesis y−<x<y+y^-<x<y^+y−<x<y+ of Lemma 7.5, which the page invokes and without which (24) is false; and the steps that do not need continuity of μ\muμ (the static part, the reduced problem) are stated without it.

A trivializing formalization is ruled out: μ∧ν\mu\wedge\nuμ∧ν is the lattice infimum of measures, not a product and not a pointwise minimum of set values, and all four conjuncts of the goal (existence, uniqueness, the bound 3, the decomposition) are asserted together.

Reusable beyond this mission: the Setting layer (convex order, ΠM\Pi_MΠM​, competitors), Lemma 3.2, Lemma 5.5 (a Lusin–Novikov consequence) and Lemma 5.6. Proofs of any milestone, and infrastructure on disintegrations of plans on R2\mathbb R^2R2, are welcome.

Selected references

  • M. Beiglböck, N. Juillet, On a problem of optimal transport under marginal martingale constraints, Ann. Probab. 44(1), 42–106, 2016. arXiv:1208.1509v2, doi:10.1214/14-AOP966
  • D. Hobson, A. Neuberger, Robust bounds for forward start options, Mathematical Finance 22(1), 31–56, 2012. doi:10.1111/j.1467-9965.2010.00473.x
  • V. Strassen, The existence of probability measures with given marginals, Ann. Math. Statist. 36, 423–439, 1965. doi:10.1214/aoms/1177700153
  • A. S. Kechris, Classical Descriptive Set Theory, Graduate Texts in Mathematics 156, Springer, 1995 (Theorem 18.11). doi:10.1007/978-1-4612-4190-4
13 thms1 active userReviewed
Optimal TransportOptimizationProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

On a Problem of Optimal Transport Under Marginal Martingale Constraints 3: Between Probability Measures in Convex Order There Is Exactly One Left-Monotone Martingale PlanResearch Paper

Motivation

In classical optimal transport on the real line, one coupling plays a distinguished role: the monotone (Hoeffding–Fréchet) coupling, which sends the qqq-quantile of the first marginal to the qqq-quantile of the second. It is canonical (every initial segment of the first marginal goes as far left as possible) and it is optimal for a whole family of costs at once.

Martingale optimal transport adds the constraint that the coupling be the law of a one-step martingale (X,Y)(X, Y)(X,Y), E[Y∣X]=X\mathbb E[Y\mid X]=XE[Y∣X]=X. The problem arises in robust (model-independent) mathematical finance: prices of vanilla options fix the marginal laws μ\muμ of XXX and ν\nuν of YYY, and bounds on the price of an exotic option c(X,Y)c(X,Y)c(X,Y) that hold under every arbitrage-free model are values of the martingale transport problem (Beiglböck, Henry-Labordère, Penkner 2013; Galichon, Henry-Labordère, Touzi 2014). Martingale couplings exist exactly when μ\muμ and ν\nuν are in convex order (Strassen 1965).

Beiglböck and Juillet (arXiv:1208.1509, Ann. Probab. 44(1), 2016) asked for the martingale counterpart of the monotone coupling, and found it: the left-curtain coupling πlc\pi_{\mathrm{lc}}πlc​. This mission formalizes its existence and uniqueness (Theorem 1.5), which is the foundation for the paper's later optimality results (Theorems 1.7, 6.1 and 6.3, other missions of this series).

Setting

All measures are Borel measures on R\mathbb RR or R×R\mathbb R\times\mathbb RR×R. M\mathcal MM is the set of finite measures μ\muμ with ∫∣x∣ dμ<∞\int|x|\,d\mu<\infty∫∣x∣dμ<∞. For μ,ν∈M\mu,\nu\in\mathcal Mμ,ν∈M:

  • Convex order μ⪯Cν\mu\preceq_C\nuμ⪯C​ν: ∫φ dμ≤∫φ dν\int\varphi\,d\mu\le\int\varphi\,d\nu∫φdμ≤∫φdν for every convex φ:R→R\varphi:\mathbb R\to\mathbb Rφ:R→R (Definition 2.1). It forces equal mass and equal mean. Extended convex order μ⪯Eν\mu\preceq_E\nuμ⪯E​ν: the same inequality for nonnegative convex φ\varphiφ only (Definition 4.3); it allows μ(R)<ν(R)\mu(\mathbb R)<\nu(\mathbb R)μ(R)<ν(R).
  • Martingale transport plans ΠM(μ,ν)\Pi_M(\mu,\nu)ΠM​(μ,ν): measures π\piπ on R2\mathbb R^2R2 with marginals μ\muμ and ν\nuν and ∫ρ(x)(y−x) dπ(x,y)=0\int\rho(x)(y-x)\,d\pi(x,y)=0∫ρ(x)(y−x)dπ(x,y)=0 for every bounded Borel ρ\rhoρ, that is, the conditional barycentre of πx\pi_xπx​ is xxx for μ\muμ-a.e. xxx.
  • Left-monotone plans (Definition 1.4): π\piπ is concentrated on a Borel set Γ\GammaΓ that contains no three points (x,y−),(x,y+),(x′,y′)(x,y^-),(x,y^+),(x',y')(x,y−),(x,y+),(x′,y′) with x<x′x<x'x<x′ and y−<y′<y+y^-<y'<y^+y−<y′<y+. Mass leaving a point xxx to both sides of y′y'y′ forbids any later point x′>xx'>xx′>x from sending mass to y′y'y′.
  • Shadow (Lemma 4.6): for μ⪯Eν\mu\preceq_E\nuμ⪯E​ν, Sν(μ)S^\nu(\mu)Sν(μ) is the measure η≤ν\eta\le\nuη≤ν with μ⪯Cη\mu\preceq_C\etaμ⪯C​η that is least in the convex order among all such η\etaη: the least spread-out part of ν\nuν into which μ\muμ can be embedded by a martingale.
  • Left-curtain coupling (Theorem 4.18): the plan πlc\pi_{\mathrm{lc}}πlc​ with proj⁡#x(πlc∣]−∞,x]×R)=μ∣]−∞,x]\operatorname{proj}^x_\#(\pi_{\mathrm{lc}}|_{]-\infty,x]\times\mathbb R})=\mu|_{]-\infty,x]}proj#x​(πlc​∣]−∞,x]×R​)=μ∣]−∞,x]​ and νxπlc:=proj⁡#y(πlc∣]−∞,x]×R)=Sν(μ∣]−∞,x])\nu^{\pi_{\mathrm{lc}}}_x:=\operatorname{proj}^y_\#(\pi_{\mathrm{lc}}|_{]-\infty,x]\times\mathbb R})=S^\nu(\mu|_{]-\infty,x]})νxπlc​​:=proj#y​(πlc​∣]−∞,x]×R​)=Sν(μ∣]−∞,x]​) for every xxx.

In Lean these are InM, ConvexLE, ExtConvexLE, IsMartingalePlan, IsLeftMonotone, IsShadow, IsLeftCurtain and targetUpTo in the shared namespace MartOT.Var. The mission's own theorems are in MartOT.Curtain.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 1.5 (p. 6)

For probability measures μ⪯Cν\mu\preceq_C\nuμ⪯C​ν on R\mathbb RR with finite first moments,

∃! ππ∈ΠM(μ,ν)  and  π is left-monotone.\exists!\,\pi\quad\pi\in\Pi_M(\mu,\nu)\ \text{ and }\ \pi\text{ is left-monotone}.∃!ππ∈ΠM​(μ,ν)  and  π is left-monotone.

Existence alone, or uniqueness only among left-curtain plans, is not the goal: the statement says that monotonicity alone singles out one martingale coupling.

Milestones

  1. Lemma 4.6: shadows exist and are unique, and satisfy (iii′) for the extended order.
  2. Monotonicity of shadows (§4.4, p. 31): μ≤μ′⪯Eν\mu\le\mu'\preceq_E\nuμ≤μ′⪯E​ν implies Sν(μ)≤Sν(μ′)S^\nu(\mu)\le S^\nu(\mu')Sν(μ)≤Sν(μ′).
  3. Theorem 4.18: πlc\pi_{\mathrm{lc}}πlc​ exists, is unique, is a probability measure and lies in ΠM(μ,ν)\Pi_M(\mu,\nu)ΠM​(μ,ν).
  4. Theorem 1.8: νtπlc⪯Cνtπ\nu^{\pi_{\mathrm{lc}}}_t\preceq_C\nu^\pi_tνtπlc​​⪯C​νtπ​ for every ttt and every π∈ΠM(μ,ν)\pi\in\Pi_M(\mu,\nu)π∈ΠM​(μ,ν).
  5. Lemma 1.11 (variational lemma): an optimal plan of finite cost lives on a Borel set on which no finitely supported measure has a cheaper competitor.
  6. Proof of Theorem 4.21: πlc\pi_{\mathrm{lc}}πlc​ is optimal for every cost cs,t(x,y)=1]−∞,s](x)∣y−t∣c_{s,t}(x,y)=\mathbf 1_{]-\infty,s]}(x)|y-t|cs,t​(x,y)=1]−∞,s]​(x)∣y−t∣.
  7. Theorem 4.21: πlc\pi_{\mathrm{lc}}πlc​ is left-monotone (the existence half of the goal).
  8. Lemma 5.1: end-point behaviour of μ⪯Cν\mu\preceq_C\nuμ⪯C​ν at sup⁡spt⁡μ\sup\operatorname{spt}\musupsptμ and inf⁡spt⁡μ\inf\operatorname{spt}\muinfsptμ.
  9. Lemma 5.2: a nonzero signed measure of mass 000 is detected by a test function ga,bg_{a,b}ga,b​ anchored in the support of its positive part.
  10. Theorem 5.3: every left-monotone martingale plan is the left-curtain coupling of its marginals (the uniqueness half).

Significance

Theorem 1.5 identifies a canonical martingale coupling defined by a geometric property of its support alone. The paper then shows that πlc\pi_{\mathrm{lc}}πlc​ is the unique optimizer of the martingale transport problem for costs h(y−x)h(y-x)h(y−x) with h′h'h′ strictly convex (Theorem 1.7) and that it is characterized by the convex-order minimality of Theorem 1.8. The left-curtain coupling has since been studied and generalized in a series of works (for instance Henry-Labordère and Touzi 2016).

The result is proved in the paper. It has, as far as the platform's catalogue shows, no machine-checked proof: no statement about martingale transport plans, shadows or the left-curtain coupling exists on Prove2Me. A formal development would produce reusable infrastructure: the convex order on finite measures of arbitrary mass, shadows, and the passage between the barycentre characterization (4) of martingale plans and their disintegrations.

Difficulty

Existence is not the hard part in the abstract: a left-monotone plan can be obtained as an optimizer for a suitable cost via the variational lemma. The construction through shadows is more delicate: one must show that the shadows of the initial segments μ∣]−∞,x]\mu|_{]-\infty,x]}μ∣]−∞,x]​ increase with xxx (this rests on Theorem 4.8, the shadow of a sum) and that the resulting plan satisfies the martingale property.

Uniqueness is the main obstacle. The classical argument for uniqueness of optimal plans (averaging two candidates and using strict convexity) requires a continuous first marginal and does not apply to arbitrary μ\muμ with atoms. The paper's argument is specific to the problem: it compares νxπ\nu^\pi_xνxπ​ with the shadow νxπlc\nu^{\pi_{\mathrm{lc}}}_xνxπlc​​ through the test functions gu,vg_{u,v}gu,v​ and a case analysis at the support end-points, which needs the measure-theoretic Lemmas 5.1 and 5.2.

Formalization scope

  • Measures are MeasureTheory.Measure ℝ and Measure (ℝ × ℝ) with Borel σ-algebras. The goal and Theorems 1.8, 4.18, 4.21 take μ,ν\mu,\nuμ,ν probability measures (IsProbabilityMeasure) in convex order; Lemma 4.6, the shadow monotonicity, Lemma 5.1 and Theorem 5.3 work in M\mathcal MM, as the paper's Sections 4–5 do.
  • Integrals of convex functions and costs are extended-real valued (EReal, through the published ModelRiskOT.Duality.extIntegral), so no Bochner integral of a non-integrable function enters a statement. ΠM\Pi_MΠM​ is encoded by characterization (4) of the paper, not by disintegrations.
  • Shadows and the left-curtain coupling are predicates (IsShadow, IsLeftCurtain), never chosen functions: their existence and uniqueness are milestones, not definitions. A formalization that defined πlc\pi_{\mathrm{lc}}πlc​ by a choice and the left-monotone plan as "the left-curtain plan" would make the goal circular; the goal mentions only ΠM\Pi_MΠM​ and left-monotonicity.
  • "π(Γ)=1\pi(\Gamma)=1π(Γ)=1" is written π(Γc)=0\pi(\Gamma^c)=0π(Γc)=0; the support of a measure is Mathlib's Measure.support.
  • No hypothesis is added to any statement of the page. In Lemma 5.1, sup⁡spt⁡μ\sup\operatorname{spt}\musupsptμ is the real supremum of the support under BddAbove; at μ=0\mu=0μ=0 Lean's convention sup⁡∅=0\sup\emptyset=0sup∅=0 applies.
  • Reading: Theorem 1.8's "minimal" is formalized as "least" (below every member of the family), which is how the paper uses it.
  • Strassen's theorem is not restated; it is already posed on the platform as PalmQueueing.Ordering.strassen_cx.

Contributions are welcome at every level: proofs of the milestones, auxiliary lemmas on the convex order of finite measures (potential functions uμu_\muuμ​, equality of mass and mean), and the equivalence between (4) and the disintegration form of the martingale property.

Selected references

  • M. Beiglböck, N. Juillet, On a problem of optimal transport under marginal martingale constraints, Ann. Probab. 44(1), 42–106, 2016. arXiv:1208.1509, doi:10.1214/14-AOP966
  • M. Beiglböck, P. Henry-Labordère, F. Penkner, Model-independent bounds for option prices — a mass transport approach, Finance Stoch. 17(3), 477–501, 2013. arXiv:1106.5929
  • A. Galichon, P. Henry-Labordère, N. Touzi, A stochastic control approach to no-arbitrage bounds given marginals, with an application to lookback options, Ann. Appl. Probab. 24(1), 312–336, 2014. doi:10.1214/13-AAP925
  • V. Strassen, The existence of probability measures with given marginals, Ann. Math. Statist. 36(2), 423–439, 1965. doi:10.1214/aoms/1177700153
  • P. Henry-Labordère, N. Touzi, An explicit martingale version of the one-dimensional Brenier theorem, Finance Stoch. 20(3), 635–668, 2016. arXiv:1302.4854
14 thms1 active userReviewed
Optimal TransportOptimizationProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

On a Problem of Optimal Transport Under Marginal Martingale Constraints 5: For c = ϕ(x)ψ(y), ψ Strictly Convex, ϕ Strictly Decreasing, the Left-Curtain Coupling Is the Unique OptimizerResearch Paper

Motivation

Martingale optimal transport asks for the cheapest way to couple two given laws μ\muμ and ν\nuν on R\mathbb RR by a one-step martingale: a pair (X,Y)(X,Y)(X,Y) with X∼μX\sim\muX∼μ, Y∼νY\sim\nuY∼ν and E[Y∣X]=XE[Y\mid X]=XE[Y∣X]=X. The problem arises in mathematical finance, where μ\muμ and ν\nuν are the risk-neutral laws of an asset at two maturities, implied by quoted vanilla option prices, and the extremal values of E[c(X,Y)]E[c(X,Y)]E[c(X,Y)] over all such couplings are model-independent price bounds for the exotic payoff ccc (Beiglböck, Henry-Labordère, Penkner 2013; Galichon, Henry-Labordère, Touzi 2014). In classical optimal transport on the line, a single coupling, the monotone (quantile) coupling, is optimal for a whole family of costs. Beiglböck and Juillet (arXiv:1208.1509, Ann. Probab. 2016) identify its martingale counterpart, the left-curtain coupling πlc\pi_{lc}πlc​, and determine costs for which it is optimal.

This mission formalizes one of those optimality results, Theorem 6.3: for product costs c(x,y)=φ(x)ψ(y)c(x,y)=\varphi(x)\psi(y)c(x,y)=φ(x)ψ(y) with ψ\psiψ strictly convex and φ\varphiφ decreasing, πlc\pi_{lc}πlc​ is the unique optimizer.

Setting

Let M\mathcal MM be the set of finite Borel measures on R\mathbb RR with finite first moment. For μ,ν∈M\mu,\nu\in\mathcal Mμ,ν∈M the convex order μ⪯Cν\mu\preceq_C\nuμ⪯C​ν means ∫ϕ dμ≤∫ϕ dν\int\phi\,d\mu\le\int\phi\,d\nu∫ϕdμ≤∫ϕdν for every convex ϕ:R→R\phi:\mathbb R\to\mathbb Rϕ:R→R; it forces equal mass and equal mean. The extended convex order μ⪯Eν\mu\preceq_E\nuμ⪯E​ν asks this only for nonnegative convex ϕ\phiϕ.

A transport plan from μ\muμ to ν\nuν is a measure π\piπ on R×R\mathbb R\times\mathbb RR×R with marginals μ\muμ and ν\nuν; the set of them is Π(μ,ν)\Pi(\mu,\nu)Π(μ,ν). It is a martingale transport plan, π∈ΠM(μ,ν)\pi\in\Pi_M(\mu,\nu)π∈ΠM​(μ,ν), if y−xy-xy−x is π\piπ-integrable and

∫ρ(x) (y−x) dπ(x,y)=0for every bounded Borel ρ,\int\rho(x)\,(y-x)\,d\pi(x,y)=0\quad\text{for every bounded Borel }\rho,∫ρ(x)(y−x)dπ(x,y)=0for every bounded Borel ρ,

that is, the conditional law πx\pi_xπx​ of yyy given xxx has barycentre xxx for μ\muμ-almost every xxx. For a cost c:R2→Rc:\mathbb R^2\to\mathbb Rc:R2→R the cost of a plan is Eπ[c]=∫c dπ∈(−∞,+∞]E_\pi[c]=\int c\,d\pi\in(-\infty,+\infty]Eπ​[c]=∫cdπ∈(−∞,+∞], the value is CM(μ,ν)=inf⁡π∈ΠM(μ,ν)Eπ[c]C_M(\mu,\nu)=\inf_{\pi\in\Pi_M(\mu,\nu)}E_\pi[c]CM​(μ,ν)=infπ∈ΠM​(μ,ν)​Eπ​[c], and π\piπ is optimal if it belongs to ΠM(μ,ν)\Pi_M(\mu,\nu)ΠM​(μ,ν) and attains this infimum.

For a plan π\piπ and t∈Rt\in\mathbb Rt∈R, the measure νtπ=proj#y(π∣(−∞,t]×R)\nu^\pi_t=\mathrm{proj}^y_\#(\pi|_{(-\infty,t]\times\mathbb R})νtπ​=proj#y​(π∣(−∞,t]×R​) is where π\piπ sends the left part μ∣(−∞,t]\mu|_{(-\infty,t]}μ∣(−∞,t]​ of μ\muμ. Given μ⪯Eν\mu\preceq_E\nuμ⪯E​ν, the shadow Sν(μ)S^\nu(\mu)Sν(μ) is the measure η\etaη with η≤ν\eta\le\nuη≤ν and μ⪯Cη\mu\preceq_C\etaμ⪯C​η that is ⪯C\preceq_C⪯C​-below every other such measure. The left-curtain coupling of μ⪯Cν\mu\preceq_C\nuμ⪯C​ν is the plan πlc\pi_{lc}πlc​ with

proj#x(πlc∣(−∞,x]×R)=μ∣(−∞,x],νxπlc=Sν(μ∣(−∞,x])(x∈R).\mathrm{proj}^x_\#(\pi_{lc}|_{(-\infty,x]\times\mathbb R})=\mu|_{(-\infty,x]},\qquad \nu^{\pi_{lc}}_x=S^\nu(\mu|_{(-\infty,x]})\qquad(x\in\mathbb R).proj#x​(πlc​∣(−∞,x]×R​)=μ∣(−∞,x]​,νxπlc​​=Sν(μ∣(−∞,x]​)(x∈R).

It sends every left part of μ\muμ to the most concentrated part of ν\nuν that can receive it by a martingale.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 6.3

Let μ⪯Cν\mu\preceq_C\nuμ⪯C​ν be finite measures, ψ≥0\psi\ge0ψ≥0 strictly convex, φ≥0\varphi\ge0φ≥0 strictly decreasing, c(x,y)=φ(x)ψ(y)c(x,y)=\varphi(x)\psi(y)c(x,y)=φ(x)ψ(y), and assume CM(μ,ν)<+∞C_M(\mu,\nu)<+\inftyCM​(μ,ν)<+∞. Then

πlc is optimal, and every optimal π∈ΠM(μ,ν) equals πlc.\pi_{lc}\ \text{is optimal, and every optimal }\pi\in\Pi_M(\mu,\nu)\text{ equals }\pi_{lc}.πlc​ is optimal, and every optimal π∈ΠM​(μ,ν) equals πlc​.

Milestones

  1. Lemma 4.6: for μ⪯Eν\mu\preceq_E\nuμ⪯E​ν in M\mathcal MM the shadow exists and is unique.
  2. Theorem 4.18: for μ⪯Cν\mu\preceq_C\nuμ⪯C​ν the left-curtain coupling exists, is unique, and lies in ΠM(μ,ν)\Pi_M(\mu,\nu)ΠM​(μ,ν).
  3. Proof of Theorem 4.21: for every π∈ΠM(μ,ν)\pi\in\Pi_M(\mu,\nu)π∈ΠM​(μ,ν) and sss, νsπ≤ν\nu^\pi_s\le\nuνsπ​≤ν, μ∣(−∞,s]⪯Cνsπ\mu|_{(-\infty,s]}\preceq_C\nu^\pi_sμ∣(−∞,s]​⪯C​νsπ​, and νsπlc⪯Cνsπ\nu^{\pi_{lc}}_s\preceq_C\nu^\pi_sνsπlc​​⪯C​νsπ​.
  4. Equation (16): ∫φ(x)ψ(y) dπ=∫0∞(∫ψ dν{φ≥t}π)dt\displaystyle\int\varphi(x)\psi(y)\,d\pi=\int_0^\infty\Big(\int\psi\,d\nu^\pi_{\{\varphi\ge t\}}\Big)dt∫φ(x)ψ(y)dπ=∫0∞​(∫ψdν{φ≥t}π​)dt.
  5. Equality case: for η⪯Cη′\eta\preceq_C\eta'η⪯C​η′ and ψ\psiψ strictly convex with ∫ψ dη′<∞\int\psi\,d\eta'<\infty∫ψdη′<∞, ∫ψ dη=∫ψ dη′\int\psi\,d\eta=\int\psi\,d\eta'∫ψdη=∫ψdη′ iff η=η′\eta=\eta'η=η′.
  6. §1.3: a plan in Π(μ,ν)\Pi(\mu,\nu)Π(μ,ν) is determined by the family (νtπ)t∈R(\nu^\pi_t)_{t\in\mathbb R}(νtπ​)t∈R​.

Significance

Theorem 6.3 gives a class of costs for which the martingale transport problem has an explicit, cost-independent solution, and does so with uniqueness and without any regularity of φ\varphiφ beyond monotonicity. In the financial reading, every payoff of the form φ(X)ψ(Y)\varphi(X)\psi(Y)φ(X)ψ(Y) with these shape properties has its model-independent lower price bound attained by one and the same model, the left-curtain martingale, which depends only on the marginals. The result complements Theorem 6.1 of the same paper (costs h(y−x)h(y-x)h(y−x) with h′h'h′ strictly convex), proved by a different, variational route.

The theorem is proved in the paper. No machine-checked version is known: neither the left-curtain coupling nor shadows nor martingale optimal transport on R\mathbb RR appears in Mathlib or on the platform. A formalization produces the shadow construction, the left-curtain coupling as a Lean object with its characterization, and the comparison principle "πlc\pi_{lc}πlc​ has the ⪯C\preceq_C⪯C​-least targets", all of which are reused by the other results of the series (uniqueness of the left-monotone plan, Theorem 6.1, the support bounds of §7).

Difficulty

The obvious argument compares costs plan by plan, but the convex order of two measures alone does not order the integrals of a strictly convex ψ\psiψ strictly: that ∫ψ dη=∫ψ dη′\int\psi\,d\eta=\int\psi\,d\eta'∫ψdη=∫ψdη′ forces η=η′\eta=\eta'η=η′ requires representing η′\eta'η′ as a martingale image of η\etaη (Strassen's theorem on R\mathbb RR) and the equality case of Jensen's inequality, with care about infinite integrals. The second obstacle is the passage from "equal targets for almost every level ttt of φ\varphiφ" to "equal plans": the superlevel sets of a strictly decreasing φ\varphiφ are half-lines that may be open or closed at the jumps of φ\varphiφ, so the targets must be controlled for both kinds of half-line, and a null set of levels must be bridged by monotonicity of t↦νtπt\mapsto\nu^\pi_tt↦νtπ​. Existence of shadows (Lemma 4.6) is itself a nontrivial construction through potential functions uμ(x)=∫∣y−x∣ dμ(y)u_\mu(x)=\int|y-x|\,d\mu(y)uμ​(x)=∫∣y−x∣dμ(y).

Formalization scope

Measures are Mathlib Measure ℝ and Measure (ℝ × ℝ) with the Borel σ-algebras. μ\muμ and ν\nuν are finite, not necessarily probability, measures, as the theorem states; membership in M\mathcal MM is part of ConvexLE. Integrals that may be infinite take values in EReal, through the published ModelRiskOT.Duality.extIntegral (∫f+−∫f−\int f^+-\int f^-∫f+−∫f−). ΠM\Pi_MΠM​ is encoded by the characterization above with bounded test functions ρ\rhoρ. The shadow and the left-curtain coupling are predicates (IsShadow, IsLeftCurtain); their existence and uniqueness are milestones, never built into definitions. "Optimal" is minimality of cost over martingale plans; attainment is not assumed.

Two hypotheses are read into the printed statement. "Decreasing" is strict: with φ≡1\varphi\equiv1φ≡1 all martingale plans have the same cost ∫ψ dν\int\psi\,d\nu∫ψdν, and for μ\muμ uniform on {−1,1}\{-1,1\}{−1,1}, ν\nuν uniform on {−2,0,2}\{-2,0,2\}{−2,0,2} there are infinitely many of them. CM(μ,ν)<+∞C_M(\mu,\nu)<+\inftyCM​(μ,ν)<+∞ is added, as the proof assumes a plan of finite cost; otherwise every plan is optimal. A formalization in which πlc\pi_{lc}πlc​ is merely some plan, the cost is a Bochner integral (which is 000 for non-integrable integrands), or optimality is taken among all plans rather than martingale plans would not be Theorem 6.3. Theorem 4.18 is stated for finite measures of equal mass, the generality Theorem 6.3 needs. Strassen's theorem is already posed on the platform (PalmQueueing.Ordering.strassen_cx) and is not restated.

A complete development needs the convex order on finite measures, shadows, the left-curtain coupling, a layer-cake identity for product integrands and the equality case of the convex order for strictly convex test functions. The shadow and left-curtain layers are reusable across the whole series; contributions to any milestone, and to general lemmas on the convex order of finite (not only probability) measures, are welcome.

Selected references

  • M. Beiglböck, N. Juillet, On a problem of optimal transport under marginal martingale constraints, Ann. Probab. 44(1), 42–106, 2016. arXiv:1208.1509v2, doi:10.1214/14-AOP966
  • M. Beiglböck, P. Henry-Labordère, F. Penkner, Model-independent bounds for option prices — a mass transport approach, Finance Stoch. 17, 477–501, 2013. doi:10.1007/s00780-013-0205-8
  • A. Galichon, P. Henry-Labordère, N. Touzi, A stochastic control approach to no-arbitrage bounds given marginals, with an application to lookback options, Ann. Appl. Probab. 24(1), 312–336, 2014. doi:10.1214/13-AAP925
  • V. Strassen, The existence of probability measures with given marginals, Ann. Math. Statist. 36, 423–439, 1965. doi:10.1214/aoms/1177700153
9 thms1 active userReviewed
Optimal TransportOptimizationProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

On a Problem of Optimal Transport Under Marginal Martingale Constraints 6: For c = −|y − x| and Continuous µ the Optimizer Is Unique and Lives on Two Monotone GraphsResearch Paper

Motivation

A forward-start straddle pays ∣S2−S1∣|S_2 - S_1|∣S2​−S1​∣, the absolute change of an asset price between two future dates. A trader who knows the market prices of all vanilla options at both dates knows the laws μ\muμ of S1S_1S1​ and ν\nuν of S2S_2S2​, but not their joint law. Under a pricing measure the price is a martingale, so the admissible joint laws are exactly the martingale couplings of μ\muμ and ν\nuν. The highest price consistent with the data is therefore the value of an optimization problem over martingale couplings: maximize E∣S2−S1∣\mathbb E|S_2-S_1|E∣S2​−S1​∣. Hobson and Neuberger (Robust bounds for forward start options, 2012) studied this problem and identified the maximizing coupling through the dual problem. Beiglböck, Henry-Labordère and Penkner (arXiv:1106.5929) showed that the dual maximizers need not exist in general.

Beiglböck and Juillet (arXiv:1208.1509v2, Ann. Probab. 2016) approach martingale transport through the structure of the support of optimal plans. Their Theorem 7.3 recovers the Hobson–Neuberger optimizer for every continuous starting law μ\muμ: it is unique and splits each starting point into at most two destinations along two monotone maps.

Timeline.

  • 1965: Strassen (doi:10.1214/aoms/1177700153) shows that martingale couplings of μ,ν\mu,\nuμ,ν exist iff μ\muμ and ν\nuν are in convex order.
  • 2012: Hobson and Neuberger identify the optimizer for c=−∣y−x∣c=-|y-x|c=−∣y−x∣ via a construction of dual maximizers, under conditions on the marginals.
  • 2013: Beiglböck, Henry-Labordère and Penkner give an example where the dual maximizers do not exist.
  • 2016: Beiglböck and Juillet prove existence, uniqueness and the two-graph structure for every continuous μ\muμ, using only the primal problem and a variational lemma.

Setting

A martingale transport plan between probability measures μ,ν\mu,\nuμ,ν on R\mathbb RR with finite first moments is a probability measure π\piπ on R2\mathbb R^2R2 with first marginal μ\muμ, second marginal ν\nuν, and

∫ρ(x) (y−x) dπ(x,y)=0for every bounded Borel ρ,\int \rho(x)\,(y-x)\,d\pi(x,y)=0\qquad\text{for every bounded Borel }\rho,∫ρ(x)(y−x)dπ(x,y)=0for every bounded Borel ρ,

that is, the conditional mean of yyy given xxx is xxx. Their set is ΠM(μ,ν)\Pi_M(\mu,\nu)ΠM​(μ,ν). It is nonempty exactly when μ\muμ and ν\nuν are in convex order, μ⪯Cν\mu\preceq_C\nuμ⪯C​ν: ∫φ dμ≤∫φ dν\int\varphi\,d\mu\le\int\varphi\,d\nu∫φdμ≤∫φdν for every convex φ\varphiφ.

For a cost c:R2→Rc:\mathbb R^2\to\mathbb Rc:R2→R the problem is

CM(μ,ν)=inf⁡{∫c dπ: π∈ΠM(μ,ν)},C_M(\mu,\nu)=\inf\Big\{\int c\,d\pi:\ \pi\in\Pi_M(\mu,\nu)\Big\},CM​(μ,ν)=inf{∫cdπ: π∈ΠM​(μ,ν)},

and π\piπ is optimal if it attains this infimum. This mission concerns the Hobson–Neuberger cost c(x,y)=−∣y−x∣c(x,y)=-|y-x|c(x,y)=−∣y−x∣, so optimal plans maximize ∫∣y−x∣ dπ\int|y-x|\,d\pi∫∣y−x∣dπ. The measure μ\muμ is continuous: μ({x})=0\mu(\{x\})=0μ({x})=0 for every xxx.

For Γ⊆R2\Gamma\subseteq\mathbb R^2Γ⊆R2 write Γx={y:(x,y)∈Γ}\Gamma_x=\{y:(x,y)\in\Gamma\}Γx​={y:(x,y)∈Γ}. A competitor of a finitely supported measure α\alphaα on R2\mathbb R^2R2 is a measure α′\alpha'α′ with the same two marginals and the same conditional barycentres ∫y dαx(y)\int y\,d\alpha_x(y)∫ydαx​(y).

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 7.3 (p. 43)

If μ⪯Cν\mu\preceq_C\nuμ⪯C​ν are probability measures and μ\muμ is continuous, there is a unique optimal πHN∈ΠM(μ,ν)\pi_{\mathrm{HN}}\in\Pi_M(\mu,\nu)πHN​∈ΠM​(μ,ν) for c(x,y)=−∣y−x∣c(x,y)=-|y-x|c(x,y)=−∣y−x∣. Moreover there are a Borel set SSS with μ(S)=1\mu(S)=1μ(S)=1 and functions T1,T2T_1,T_2T1​,T2​, nondecreasing on SSS, with

T1(x)≤x≤T2(x) (x∈S),πHN({(x,y):x∈S, y∈{T1(x),T2(x)}})=1.T_1(x)\le x\le T_2(x)\ (x\in S),\qquad \pi_{\mathrm{HN}}\big(\{(x,y):x\in S,\ y\in\{T_1(x),T_2(x)\}\}\big)=1.T1​(x)≤x≤T2​(x) (x∈S),πHN​({(x,y):x∈S, y∈{T1​(x),T2​(x)}})=1.

Milestones, in attack order

  1. Attainment (§2.1, pp. 10–11): for a lower semicontinuous, sufficiently integrable cost the infimum is attained when ΠM(μ,ν)≠∅\Pi_M(\mu,\nu)\neq\emptysetΠM​(μ,ν)=∅.
  2. Lemma 1.11 (p. 8): an optimal plan of finite cost is concentrated on a Borel Γ\GammaΓ such that no finitely supported α\alphaα on Γ\GammaΓ has a cheaper competitor.
  3. Lemma 7.5 (pp. 43–44): the sign of A−BA-BA−B, an explicit difference of absolute values, as a function of one variable.
  4. (23) (p. 44): on such a Γ\GammaΓ, for (x,y−),(x,y+),(x′,y′)∈Γ(x,y^-),(x,y^+),(x',y')\in\Gamma(x,y−),(x,y+),(x′,y′)∈Γ with y−<y′<y+y^-<y'<y^+y−<y′<y+, neither y′≤x′<xy'\le x'<xy′≤x′<x nor x<x′≤y′x<x'\le y'x<x′≤y′.
  5. Lemma 3.2 (p. 19) and the countability of {a:∣Γa∣>2}\{a:|\Gamma_a|>2\}{a:∣Γa​∣>2} (p. 45).
  6. Lemma 5.5 (p. 35): a Borel set with at most two points per fibre is the union of two Borel graphs.
  7. Monotonicity of T1,T2T_1,T_2T1​,T2​ (p. 45).
  8. Convexity of the set of optimizers (p. 45) and Lemma 5.6 (p. 36): a nonempty convex set of martingale plans each living on a set with two-point fibres is a single plan.

Significance

The result. Theorem 7.3 gives the extremal martingale coupling for the forward-start straddle in closed structural form: a plan that sends each xxx to one point below and one point above it, both chosen monotonically in xxx. Combined with the martingale constraint, this determines the transition probabilities at each xxx, so the plan, and the model-independent upper price bound, are pinned down by μ\muμ and ν\nuν. Remark 7.6 of the paper shows that continuity of μ\muμ cannot be dropped: for atomic μ\muμ uniqueness can fail.

Formalizing it. The result is proved in the paper; to our knowledge none of it is machine-checked. The mission produces a formal account of a support-based method (variational lemma, forbidden configurations, fibre counting, selection of Borel graphs, uniqueness from convexity). Lemma 3.2, Lemma 5.5 and Lemma 5.6 are general statements reused by the paper's other structure theorems (Corollary 1.6, Theorems 7.1, 7.4) and are of independent use.

Difficulty

The forbidden configurations (23) are pointwise statements about a set Γ\GammaΓ of full measure, while the conclusion is about functions. Passing from one to the other needs three ingredients that do not follow from (23) alone: a counting argument showing that only countably many fibres can have three or more points (this is where continuity of μ\muμ enters, through Lemma 3.2), a measurable selection of the two branches (Lemma 5.5, a Lusin–Novikov type theorem not in Mathlib), and a uniqueness argument comparing two optimizers through their average. The naive idea of reading uniqueness off from (23) directly fails: (23) constrains each optimizer separately, and two optimizers could a priori live on different pairs of graphs.

Lemma 1.11 itself rests on a duality theorem of Kellerer type for product sets and is the subject of a separate mission of this series.

Formalization scope

The Lean development works with measures on ℝ and ℝ × ℝ and their Borel σ-algebras. Integrals that may be infinite are taken in EReal through the published ModelRiskOT.Duality.extIntegral (positive minus negative part, with (+∞)−(+∞)=−∞(+\infty)-(+\infty)=-\infty(+∞)−(+∞)=−∞); the cost of a plan, CMC_MCM​, and the convex order are defined through it. ΠM(μ,ν)\Pi_M(\mu,\nu)ΠM​(μ,ν) is encoded by the paper's own characterization (4) with bounded test functions, and competitors by the same device; no disintegrations appear in the statements. Cardinalities of fibres are Set.encard, valued in N∪{∞}\mathbb N\cup\{\infty\}N∪{∞}. Continuity of μ\muμ is the hypothesis μ({x})=0\mu(\{x\})=0μ({x})=0 for every xxx. "Concentrated on AAA" is π(Ac)=0\pi(A^c)=0π(Ac)=0.

The attainment milestone uses the finite-measure class M\mathcal MM introduced in §2.1: probability normalization is required for Lemma 1.11 and the goal, but not for attainment. The first moments of both marginals are explicit hypotheses in that milestone.

The goal states T1,T2T_1,T_2T1​,T2​ as nondecreasing on a Borel set SSS of full μ\muμ-measure, with T1≤id≤T2T_1\le\mathrm{id}\le T_2T1​≤id≤T2​ on SSS. The page writes T1,T2:R→RT_1,T_2:\mathbb R\to\mathbb RT1​,T2​:R→R nondecreasing everywhere; read literally that version fails when μ\muμ has bounded support and ν\nuν does not, and the paper's proof produces exactly the full-measure form (as in its Corollary 1.6).

Statements (23), the fibre count and the monotonicity of T1,T2T_1,T_2T1​,T2​ are stated for an arbitrary set Γ\GammaΓ with the finite-optimality property of Lemma 1.11 for c=−∣y−x∣c=-|y-x|c=−∣y−x∣, so they do not depend on a plan. A formalization proving only existence of an optimizer, or uniqueness without the two-graph structure, does not settle the goal: both parts are required.

Needed infrastructure: weak compactness of ΠM(μ,ν)\Pi_M(\mu,\nu)ΠM​(μ,ν) and lower semicontinuity of the cost functional; a Kellerer-type duality for Lemma 1.11; a Lusin–Novikov selection theorem for Lemma 5.5. Contributions to any of these, and alternative proofs of Lemma 5.6, are welcome.

Selected references

  • M. Beiglböck, N. Juillet, On a problem of optimal transport under marginal martingale constraints, Ann. Probab. 44(1), 42–106, 2016. arXiv:1208.1509v2, doi:10.1214/14-AOP966
  • D. Hobson, A. Neuberger, Robust bounds for forward start options, Mathematical Finance 22(1), 31–56, 2012. doi:10.1111/j.1467-9965.2010.00473.x
  • M. Beiglböck, P. Henry-Labordère, F. Penkner, Model-independent bounds for option prices — a mass transport approach, Finance Stoch. 17, 477–501, 2013. arXiv:1106.5929
  • V. Strassen, The existence of probability measures with given marginals, Ann. Math. Statist. 36, 423–439, 1965. doi:10.1214/aoms/1177700153
  • A. S. Kechris, Classical Descriptive Set Theory, Graduate Texts in Mathematics 156, Springer, 1995 (Theorem 18.11). doi:10.1007/978-1-4612-4190-4
13 thms1 active userReviewed
Optimal TransportOptimizationProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

On a Problem of Optimal Transport Under Marginal Martingale Constraints 4: For c = h(y − x) with h′ Strictly Convex the Left-Curtain Coupling Is the Unique OptimizerResearch Paper

Motivation

Martingale optimal transport asks for the cheapest way to couple two probability laws μ\muμ and ν\nuν on R\mathbb RR under the extra constraint that the coupling is the law of a one-step martingale. The problem arose in robust mathematical finance: when the prices of all call options at two maturities are observed, the marginal laws of the underlying asset at those maturities are known, and the no-arbitrage bounds on the price of a path-dependent option are the values of a martingale transport problem (Beiglböck, Henry-Labordère, Penkner 2013; Galichon, Henry-Labordère, Touzi 2014). The paper of Beiglböck and Juillet (arXiv:1208.1509v2, Ann. Probab. 44 (2016)) introduced the structural theory of the one-dimensional problem: a variational principle for optimal plans, a canonical coupling called the left-curtain coupling, and the identification of that coupling as the optimizer for a family of costs.

This mission formalizes that last identification. In classical optimal transport on the line, the monotone (quantile) coupling is the unique optimizer for every cost h(y−x)h(y-x)h(y−x) with hhh strictly convex; the result here is the martingale counterpart, with a different coupling and a different convexity condition.

Setting

Let μ,ν\mu,\nuμ,ν be Borel probability measures on R\mathbb RR with finite first moment. They are in convex order, μ⪯Cν\mu\preceq_C\nuμ⪯C​ν, if ∫φ dμ≤∫φ dν\int\varphi\,d\mu\le\int\varphi\,d\nu∫φdμ≤∫φdν for every convex φ:R→R\varphi:\mathbb R\to\mathbb Rφ:R→R (Definition 2.1). A transport plan is a measure π\piπ on R×R\mathbb R\times\mathbb RR×R with first marginal μ\muμ and second marginal ν\nuν; it is a martingale transport plan, π∈ΠM(μ,ν)\pi\in\Pi_M(\mu,\nu)π∈ΠM​(μ,ν), if under π\piπ the conditional mean of yyy given xxx equals xxx, equivalently

∫ρ(x) (y−x) dπ(x,y)=0for every bounded Borel ρ.\int\rho(x)\,(y-x)\,d\pi(x,y)=0\quad\text{for every bounded Borel }\rho .∫ρ(x)(y−x)dπ(x,y)=0for every bounded Borel ρ.

Strassen's theorem says ΠM(μ,ν)≠∅\Pi_M(\mu,\nu)\ne\emptysetΠM​(μ,ν)=∅ exactly when μ⪯Cν\mu\preceq_C\nuμ⪯C​ν.

A cost is a function c:R2→Rc:\mathbb R^2\to\mathbb Rc:R2→R. It satisfies the sufficient integrability condition if c(x,y)≥a(x)+b(y)c(x,y)\ge a(x)+b(y)c(x,y)≥a(x)+b(y) for all x,yx,yx,y with a∈L1(μ)a\in L^1(\mu)a∈L1(μ), b∈L1(ν)b\in L^1(\nu)b∈L1(ν); then ∫c dπ∈(−∞,+∞]\int c\,d\pi\in(-\infty,+\infty]∫cdπ∈(−∞,+∞] is well defined for every plan. The martingale transport problem is

CM(μ,ν)=inf⁡π∈ΠM(μ,ν)∫c dπ,C_M(\mu,\nu)=\inf_{\pi\in\Pi_M(\mu,\nu)}\int c\,d\pi ,CM​(μ,ν)=π∈ΠM​(μ,ν)inf​∫cdπ,

and a plan attaining the infimum is optimal.

A plan π\piπ is (left-)monotone (Definition 1.4) if it is concentrated on a Borel set Γ\GammaΓ containing no three points (x,y−),(x,y+),(x′,y′)(x,y^-),(x,y^+),(x',y')(x,y−),(x,y+),(x′,y′) with x<x′x<x'x<x′ and y−<y′<y+y^-<y'<y^+y−<y′<y+. For a finite measure η≤μ\eta\le\muη≤μ, its shadow Sν(η)S^\nu(\eta)Sν(η) is the least measure in the convex order among the measures η′≤ν\eta'\le\nuη′≤ν with η⪯Cη′\eta\preceq_C\eta'η⪯C​η′ (Lemma 4.6). The left-curtain coupling πlc\pi_{lc}πlc​ is the plan that transports μ∣]−∞,x]\mu|_{]-\infty,x]}μ∣]−∞,x]​ onto Sν(μ∣]−∞,x])S^\nu(\mu|_{]-\infty,x]})Sν(μ∣]−∞,x]​) for every xxx (Theorem 4.18); writing νtπ\nu^\pi_tνtπ​ for the second marginal of π∣]−∞,t]×R\pi|_{]-\infty,t]\times\mathbb R}π∣]−∞,t]×R​, this says νtπlc=Sν(μ∣]−∞,t])\nu^{\pi_{lc}}_t=S^\nu(\mu|_{]-\infty,t]})νtπlc​​=Sν(μ∣]−∞,t]​).

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 1.7 (= Theorem 6.1)

Let μ⪯Cν\mu\preceq_C\nuμ⪯C​ν be probability measures, let h:R→Rh:\mathbb R\to\mathbb Rh:R→R be differentiable with strictly convex derivative h′h'h′, let c(x,y)=h(y−x)c(x,y)=h(y-x)c(x,y)=h(y−x) satisfy the sufficient integrability condition, and assume CM(μ,ν)<∞C_M(\mu,\nu)<\inftyCM​(μ,ν)<∞. Then

πlc is optimal, and every optimal π∈ΠM(μ,ν) equals πlc.\pi_{lc}\ \text{is optimal, and every optimal}\ \pi\in\Pi_M(\mu,\nu)\ \text{equals}\ \pi_{lc}.πlc​ is optimal, and every optimal π∈ΠM​(μ,ν) equals πlc​.

Milestones

  1. Attainment (§2.1): for a lower semicontinuous cost with the integrability condition, the infimum CM(μ,ν)C_M(\mu,\nu)CM​(μ,ν) is attained whenever ΠM(μ,ν)≠∅\Pi_M(\mu,\nu)\ne\emptysetΠM​(μ,ν)=∅.
  2. Lemma 1.11 (variational lemma): an optimal plan of finite cost is concentrated on a Borel Γ\GammaΓ such that no finitely supported α\alphaα with support in Γ\GammaΓ has a strictly cheaper competitor (same marginals, same conditional barycentres).
  3. The rerouting (proof of Theorem 6.1): for λy++(1−λ)y−=y′\lambda y^+ + (1-\lambda)y^- = y'λy++(1−λ)y−=y′, the measure α′\alpha'α′ with masses 1−λ,λ,11-\lambda,\lambda,11−λ,λ,1 at (x′,y−),(x′,y+),(x,y′)(x',y^-),(x',y^+),(x,y')(x′,y−),(x′,y+),(x,y′) is a competitor of α\alphaα with masses λ,1−λ,1\lambda,1-\lambda,1λ,1−λ,1 at (x,y+),(x,y−),(x′,y′)(x,y^+),(x,y^-),(x',y')(x,y+),(x,y−),(x′,y′).
  4. Display (15): d(t)=λh(y+−t)+(1−λ)h(y−−t)−h(y′−t)d(t)=\lambda h(y^+-t)+(1-\lambda)h(y^--t)-h(y'-t)d(t)=λh(y+−t)+(1−λ)h(y−−t)−h(y′−t) is strictly decreasing.
  5. The rerouting is strictly cheaper: for x<x′x<x'x<x′,
λc(x,y+)+(1−λ)c(x,y−)+c(x′,y′)>λc(x′,y+)+(1−λ)c(x′,y−)+c(x,y′).\lambda c(x,y^+)+(1-\lambda)c(x,y^-)+c(x',y')>\lambda c(x',y^+)+(1-\lambda)c(x',y^-)+c(x,y').λc(x,y+)+(1−λ)c(x,y−)+c(x′,y′)>λc(x′,y+)+(1−λ)c(x′,y−)+c(x,y′).
  1. Every finite optimizer is monotone.
  2. Theorem 4.18: πlc\pi_{lc}πlc​ exists, is unique and lies in ΠM(μ,ν)\Pi_M(\mu,\nu)ΠM​(μ,ν).
  3. Theorem 5.3: a monotone martingale transport plan is the left-curtain coupling of its marginals.
  4. Theorem 1.9 (companion): under the goal's hypotheses, for π∈ΠM(μ,ν)\pi\in\Pi_M(\mu,\nu)π∈ΠM​(μ,ν), "monotone", "optimal" and "νtπ⪯Cνtπ′\nu^\pi_t\preceq_C\nu^{\pi'}_tνtπ​⪯C​νtπ′​ for all π′∈ΠM(μ,ν)\pi'\in\Pi_M(\mu,\nu)π′∈ΠM​(μ,ν) and ttt" are equivalent.

Significance

The theorem shows that, for every cost h(y−x)h(y-x)h(y−x) with h′h'h′ strictly convex (for instance h=exp⁡h=\exph=exp), the martingale transport problem has the same optimizer, determined by μ\muμ and ν\nuν alone. In the financial reading, the model-independent bound on the price of the corresponding forward-start payoff is attained by one explicit martingale, the same for the whole family. Remark 6.2 of the paper derives from it that πlc\pi_{lc}πlc​ also minimizes the essential supremum of y−xy-xy−x. Theorem 1.9 packages the result as an equivalence of a geometric property (monotonicity), an optimality property and an order property of the curtain; later work on the left-curtain coupling, its explicit construction, and its extensions to higher dimensions and to multiple marginals takes these characterizations as its starting point.

The result is proved in the paper. As far as is known, none of it is formalized: Mathlib has the convex order neither for finite measures nor in the form used here, no martingale couplings, and no theory of shadows. The mission produces the statement layer (convex order on finite measures, martingale plans, extended-real costs, shadows, left-monotone plans, competitors) and asks for a machine-checked proof of the goal and of each milestone. The real-variable milestones (displays around (15)) are self-contained and elementary; the measure-theoretic ones carry the weight.

Difficulty

Optimality is a global property of a measure on R2\mathbb R^2R2, while monotonicity is a pointwise property of its support. Passing from the first to the second requires the variational lemma, whose proof uses a duality theorem for measures with prescribed marginal bounds and a measurable-selection argument; a direct perturbation of π\piπ along a single bad triple fails because a triple of points carries no mass. The second obstacle is uniqueness of the monotone plan (Theorem 5.3), which needs the shadow construction and the associativity of shadows; monotonicity alone does not visibly pin down the plan. Existence of an optimizer needs weak compactness of ΠM(μ,ν)\Pi_M(\mu,\nu)ΠM​(μ,ν), which is not immediate because the martingale condition is tested against bounded measurable, not continuous, functions.

Formalization scope

All measures are Borel measures on R\mathbb RR and R×R\mathbb R\times\mathbb RR×R; μ,ν\mu,\nuμ,ν in the goal are probability measures. Convex order requires finite mass and finite first moment of both sides. Integrals that may be infinite (∫c dπ\int c\,d\pi∫cdπ, ∫φ dμ\int\varphi\,d\mu∫φdμ for convex φ\varphiφ) are computed in the extended reals as ∫f+−∫f−\int f^+-\int f^-∫f+−∫f− (the published ModelRiskOT.Duality.extIntegral), never as Bochner integrals. ΠM\Pi_MΠM​ is encoded by the test-function condition displayed above (the paper's (4)). Shadows and the left-curtain coupling are predicates (IsShadow, IsLeftCurtain); their existence and uniqueness are theorems, and the goal asserts them rather than assuming them. Strict convexity of h′h'h′ is strict convexity of deriv h on R\mathbb RR, with hhh differentiable everywhere. Finiteness of costs is CM(μ,ν)<+∞C_M(\mu,\nu)<+\inftyCM​(μ,ν)<+∞, which is the same as the existence of a martingale plan of finite cost (Theorem 6.1's wording).

A formalization that assumes an optimizer exists, or that asserts uniqueness only among left-curtain plans, is trivial and is not the goal: the statement asserts a plan with the left-curtain property, its optimality, and that every optimal plan equals it.

The development needs: weak compactness of plan sets on R2\mathbb R^2R2; lower semicontinuity of extended-real cost functionals; the variational lemma (shared with the companion mission on Lemma 1.11); shadows and their order properties; and the uniqueness of monotone martingale plans. The shadow theory and the variational lemma are reusable across the whole series on this paper. Contributions on any milestone are welcome, including proofs of the elementary displays (15) and the rerouting inequality.

Selected references

  • M. Beiglböck, N. Juillet, On a problem of optimal transport under marginal martingale constraints, Ann. Probab. 44(1), 42–106, 2016. https://arxiv.org/abs/1208.1509v2
  • M. Beiglböck, P. Henry-Labordère, F. Penkner, Model-independent bounds for option prices: a mass transport approach, Finance Stoch. 17, 477–501, 2013. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00780-013-0205-8
  • A. Galichon, P. Henry-Labordère, N. Touzi, A stochastic control approach to no-arbitrage bounds given marginals, with an application to lookback options, Ann. Appl. Probab. 24(1), 312–336, 2014. https://doi.org/10.1214/13-AAP925
  • V. Strassen, The existence of probability measures with given marginals, Ann. Math. Statist. 36, 423–439, 1965. https://doi.org/10.1214/aoms/1177700153
  • C. Villani, Optimal Transport: Old and New, Springer, 2009. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-71050-9
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