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Operations Research

911 missions · 518 completed

The discipline of applying mathematical analysis to complex decision problems in operations: allocating scarce resources, scheduling, routing, inventory, and the design of service and production systems. Drawing on mathematical programming, stochastic modeling, queueing, simulation, and game-theoretic reasoning, it seeks policies that perform provably well in systems shaped by constraints, congestion, and uncertainty.

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AnalysisNumerical AnalysisOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

A Nonsmooth Version of Newton's Method I: local superlinear convergence of the generalized-Jacobian Newton method at a semismooth regular rootResearch Paper

Motivation

Many problems in optimization and equilibrium modelling reduce to a system of equations F(x)=0F(x) = 0F(x)=0 whose map F:Rn→RnF : \mathbb R^n \to \mathbb R^nF:Rn→Rn is Lipschitz but not differentiable: reformulations of nonlinear complementarity problems through the componentwise minimum or the Fischer–Burmeister function, Karush–Kuhn–Tucker systems of constrained programs, and gradients of augmented Lagrangians all have kinks. Newton's method, xk+1=xk−F′(xk)−1F(xk)x^{k+1} = x^k - F'(x^k)^{-1}F(x^k)xk+1=xk−F′(xk)−1F(xk), is the standard fast local solver for smooth systems, but it needs a derivative at every iterate.

Qi and Sun (Math. Programming 58, 1993) replaced the Jacobian by an arbitrary element of Clarke's generalized Jacobian and showed that the resulting method converges locally superlinearly under a regularity condition they called semismoothness, extending Mifflin's notion for functionals (Mifflin, SIAM J. Control Optim. 15, 1977) to vector-valued maps. This theorem is the foundation of the family of semismooth Newton methods used in complementarity, variational inequalities and PDE-constrained optimization.

Timeline. Robinson (1988) and Pang (Math. OR 15, 1990) studied Newton methods built on B-derivatives, with convergence proved under a strong Fréchet derivative at the solution; Kummer (1988) gave an abstract framework for Newton methods for nonsmooth equations; Qi and Sun (1993) proved local superlinear convergence for the generalized-Jacobian iteration under semismoothness and nonsingularity of ∂F(x∗)\partial F(x^*)∂F(x∗), with order 1+p1+p1+p under ppp-order semismoothness.

Setting

Let F:Rn→RmF : \mathbb R^n \to \mathbb R^mF:Rn→Rm be locally Lipschitz. By Rademacher's theorem FFF is differentiable on a set DFD_FDF​ of full measure; write JF(y)JF(y)JF(y) for the Jacobian at y∈DFy \in D_Fy∈DF​. The generalized Jacobian is

∂F(x)=co{lim⁡i→∞JF(xi):xi→x, xi∈DF},\partial F(x) = \mathrm{co}\Big\{\lim_{i\to\infty} JF(x_i) : x_i \to x,\ x_i \in D_F\Big\},∂F(x)=co{i→∞lim​JF(xi​):xi​→x, xi​∈DF​},

the convex hull of all limits of Jacobians along sequences of differentiability points converging to xxx. The one-sided directional derivative is F′(x;h)=lim⁡t↓0(F(x+th)−F(x))/tF'(x;h) = \lim_{t\downarrow 0}(F(x+th)-F(x))/tF′(x;h)=limt↓0​(F(x+th)−F(x))/t.

FFF is semismooth at xxx if it is Lipschitz near xxx and, for every hhh, the limit of Vh′Vh'Vh′ over V∈∂F(x+th′)V \in \partial F(x+th')V∈∂F(x+th′), h′→hh' \to hh′→h, t↓0t \downarrow 0t↓0 exists. For 0<p≤10 < p \le 10<p≤1, FFF is ppp-order semismooth at xxx if in addition Vh−F′(x;h)=O(∥h∥1+p)Vh - F'(x;h) = O(\|h\|^{1+p})Vh−F′(x;h)=O(∥h∥1+p) for V∈∂F(x+h)V \in \partial F(x+h)V∈∂F(x+h), h→0h \to 0h→0.

For m=nm = nm=n, the nonsmooth Newton method is

xk+1=xk−Vk−1F(xk),Vk∈∂F(xk),(3.2)x^{k+1} = x^k - V_k^{-1}F(x^k), \qquad V_k \in \partial F(x^k), \tag{3.2}xk+1=xk−Vk−1​F(xk),Vk​∈∂F(xk),(3.2)

where any element of ∂F(xk)\partial F(x^k)∂F(xk) may be chosen at each step. A run is a pair of sequences (xk)(x^k)(xk), (Vk)(V_k)(Vk​) with Vk∈∂F(xk)V_k \in \partial F(x^k)Vk​∈∂F(xk) and Vk(xk+1−xk)=−F(xk)V_k(x^{k+1}-x^k) = -F(x^k)Vk​(xk+1−xk)=−F(xk) for all kkk. A root x∗x^*x∗ (F(x∗)=0F(x^*) = 0F(x∗)=0) is regular when every V∈∂F(x∗)V \in \partial F(x^*)V∈∂F(x∗) is nonsingular.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3.2, local superlinear convergence

Let FFF be locally Lipschitz, F(x∗)=0F(x^*) = 0F(x∗)=0, FFF semismooth at x∗x^*x∗, and every V∈∂F(x∗)V \in \partial F(x^*)V∈∂F(x∗) nonsingular. Then there is δ>0\delta > 0δ>0 such that every V∈∂F(y)V \in \partial F(y)V∈∂F(y) with ∥y−x∗∥<δ\|y - x^*\| < \delta∥y−x∗∥<δ is nonsingular, a Newton step from such a yyy stays within δ\deltaδ of x∗x^*x∗, and every run with ∥x0−x∗∥<δ\|x^0 - x^*\| < \delta∥x0−x∗∥<δ satisfies

xk→x∗,∥xk+1−x∗∥=o(∥xk−x∗∥).x^k \to x^*, \qquad \|x^{k+1} - x^*\| = o(\|x^k - x^*\|).xk→x∗,∥xk+1−x∗∥=o(∥xk−x∗∥).

The goal asserts only the shape of the convergence (superlinear) and fixes no constants.

Stronger: Theorem 3.2, order 1+p1 + p1+p

If moreover FFF is ppp-order semismooth at x∗x^*x∗, 0<p≤10 < p \le 10<p≤1, there are δ>0\delta > 0δ>0 and CCC with

∥xk+1−x∗∥≤C∥xk−x∗∥1+p\|x^{k+1} - x^*\| \le C\|x^k - x^*\|^{1+p}∥xk+1−x∗∥≤C∥xk−x∗∥1+p

for every run started within δ\deltaδ of x∗x^*x∗.

Milestones

The milestones follow the paper's route: Proposition 2.1 (the limit in the definition of semismoothness is the directional derivative), Lemma 2.2 (Lipschitz continuity of F′(x;⋅)F'(x;\cdot)F′(x;⋅) and its realisation by an element of ∂F(x)\partial F(x)∂F(x)), Theorem 2.3 (semismoothness is equivalent to Vh−F′(x;h)=o(∥h∥)Vh - F'(x;h) = o(\|h\|)Vh−F′(x;h)=o(∥h∥) and to the corresponding condition at differentiability points), the Remark's expansion (2.17), Proposition 3.1 (uniform invertibility near a regular point), the order-(1+p)(1+p)(1+p) sentence of Theorem 3.2, and Corollary 2.5 (strong Fréchet differentiability implies semismoothness).

Significance

The theorem gives a locally superlinearly convergent method for Lipschitz equations with no smoothness beyond semismoothness at the root. Convex, smooth and subsmooth functions are semismooth, as are sums and scalar products of semismooth functions (the paper, citing Mifflin), and later work showed that the complementarity and KKT reformulations on which semismooth Newton solvers are built are semismooth as well; the order-(1+p)(1+p)(1+p) variant gives local quadratic convergence for strongly semismooth maps. Mission II of this series treats the paper's global convergence theorem on a ball, and Mission III the semismoothness of augmented Lagrangian gradients, which supplies the application.

The results are proved in the paper. No machine-checked version of the generalized Jacobian, of semismoothness or of the nonsmooth Newton method is known to exist in Mathlib or on this platform; the platform's formalized Newton results concern one-dimensional C2C^2C2 functions (MetodosNumericos.newton_local_convergence) and smooth convex minimization. A complete development would provide the first formal library for Clarke's generalized Jacobian and semismooth maps.

Difficulty

The classical Newton proof compares F(xk)F(x^k)F(xk) with its linearization JF(x∗)(xk−x∗)JF(x^*)(x^k - x^*)JF(x∗)(xk−x∗) and uses continuity of the Jacobian at x∗x^*x∗. Here neither is available: FFF need not be differentiable at x∗x^*x∗ or at any iterate, the element VkV_kVk​ is chosen arbitrarily from a set, and VkV_kVk​ need not be close to any fixed linear map. The comparison has to go through the directional derivative F′(x∗;⋅)F'(x^*; \cdot)F′(x∗;⋅), which is only positively homogeneous, not linear. The analytic content therefore sits in Section 2: showing that semismoothness, defined through a limit over a set-valued map, controls Vh−F′(x;h)Vh - F'(x;h)Vh−F′(x;h) uniformly in the direction, and that F(x+h)−F(x)−F′(x;h)F(x+h) - F(x) - F'(x;h)F(x+h)−F(x)−F′(x;h) is small. Both rest on Clarke's mean-value inclusion and on compactness and upper semicontinuity of ∂F\partial F∂F, none of which is in Mathlib. The superlinear rate also requires a uniform bound on ∥V−1∥\|V^{-1}\|∥V−1∥ in a whole neighbourhood, not just at x∗x^*x∗.

Formalization scope

Everything lives in the namespace NonsmoothNewton.Local. Section 2 results are stated for maps between finite-dimensional real normed spaces E→GE \to GE→G (the paper's Rn→Rm\mathbb R^n \to \mathbb R^mRn→Rm is the Euclidean instance); Section 3 results use EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin n). Conventions fixed by the Lean statements:

  • JFJFJF is fderiv; the generalized Jacobian is the convex hull (no closure) of limits of fderiv along sequences xi→xx_i \to xxi​→x of differentiability points.
  • F′(x;h)F'(x;h)F′(x;h) is the one-sided limit over t↓0t \downarrow 0t↓0, never the two-sided lineDeriv; its value is a limUnder, used only where existence is a hypothesis or a consequence.
  • Nonsingular means IsUnit in the ring of continuous linear endomorphisms; ∥V−1∥≤C\|V^{-1}\| \le C∥V−1∥≤C is a two-sided inverse of operator norm at most CCC.
  • A run of (3.2) is encoded by the linear equation Vk(xk+1−xk)=−F(xk)V_k(x^{k+1} - x^k) = -F(x^k)Vk​(xk+1−xk)=−F(xk) with Vk∈∂F(xk)V_k \in \partial F(x^k)Vk​∈∂F(xk); all choices of VkV_kVk​ are quantified, and δ\deltaδ is chosen before the run.
  • Pinned asymptotics. The goal's rate is the proof's display (3.3), stated as IsLittleO along atTop; the printed Theorem 3.2 states only well-definedness and convergence. "Order 1+p1+p1+p" is pinned as ∥xk+1−x∗∥≤C∥xk−x∗∥1+p\|x^{k+1}-x^*\| \le C\|x^k-x^*\|^{1+p}∥xk+1−x∗∥≤C∥xk−x∗∥1+p with δ\deltaδ and CCC uniform over runs. Every o(∥h∥)o(\|h\|)o(∥h∥) in (2.8), (2.9) and (2.17) is its ε\varepsilonε–δ\deltaδ form with a non-strict inequality ≤ε∥h∥\le \varepsilon\|h\|≤ε∥h∥, and every O(∥h∥1+p)O(\|h\|^{1+p})O(∥h∥1+p) is an explicit constant and radius.
  • The standing assumptions "FFF locally Lipschitzian" of Sections 2 and 3 are hypotheses of every statement.
  • The strong Fréchet derivative of Corollary 2.5 is Mathlib's HasStrictFDerivAt, which corrects the misprint F(x)F(x)F(x) for F(z)F(z)F(z) in the paper's display (2.16).

A trivializing formalization is ruled out: the update is not written with a junk inverse (which would make a singular step "well defined"), the generalized Jacobian is the paper's nonempty set rather than one that could be empty, and the theorem quantifies over every run rather than asserting that some run converges.

A complete development needs Clarke's mean-value inclusion (2.2), compactness and upper semicontinuity of ∂F\partial F∂F for locally Lipschitz maps (via Rademacher's theorem, available in Mathlib), and perturbation bounds for inverses of linear maps. The generalized-Jacobian and semismoothness layer is reusable beyond this mission, in particular for Missions II and III of this series. Contributions of proofs of any milestone, and of general lemmas about ∂F\partial F∂F, are welcome.

Selected references

  • L. Qi, J. Sun, A nonsmooth version of Newton's method, Mathematical Programming 58 (1993) 353–367. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01581275
  • F. H. Clarke, Optimization and Nonsmooth Analysis, Wiley, 1983 (SIAM reprint 1990). https://doi.org/10.1137/1.9781611971309
  • R. Mifflin, Semismooth and semiconvex functions in constrained optimization, SIAM Journal on Control and Optimization 15 (1977) 959–972. https://doi.org/10.1137/0315061
  • J.-S. Pang, Newton's method for B-differentiable equations, Mathematics of Operations Research 15 (1990) 311–341. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.15.2.311
  • J. M. Ortega, W. C. Rheinboldt, Iterative Solution of Nonlinear Equations in Several Variables, Academic Press, 1970 (SIAM reprint 2000). https://doi.org/10.1137/1.9780898719468
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CombinatoricsGraph TheoryOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Shortest Connection Networks And Some Generalizations: Construction Principles P1 and P2 Yield a Shortest Spanning Subtree of Every Connected Labelled GraphResearch Paper

Motivation

Connecting a set of terminals by a network of direct links of least total length is one of the oldest problems of combinatorial optimization. R. C. Prim's 1957 paper in the Bell System Technical Journal (DOI) was motivated by the rate structure for Bell System leased-line services, in which the charge for connecting a set of terminals depends on the length of a shortest network connecting them. The paper states two local construction principles, P1 and P2, and shows that any sequence of their applications produces a shortest network, first for points in the plane and then for arbitrary connected labelled graphs with arbitrary real edge lengths. The paper's §V specialization of the principles, growing a single fragment, is what is now called Prim's algorithm, and its §IV statement is the form of the minimum spanning tree theorem used throughout network design, clustering and approximation algorithms.

Timeline. O. Borůvka (1926) solved the problem for an electrical network in Moravia; V. Jarník (1930) gave the single-fragment procedure; J. B. Kruskal (1956, Proc. AMS 7, 48–50) proved that adding globally shortest links avoiding cycles yields a shortest spanning tree; Prim (1957) gave the more permissive principles P1 and P2, which contain both the Jarník procedure and Kruskal's rule as special orders of application; E. W. Dijkstra (1959) rediscovered the single-fragment procedure.

Setting

Let VVV be a finite set of NNN terminals and GGG a simple graph on VVV, the labelled graph whose edges are the possible links. Each edge eee carries a real length w(e)w(e)w(e); lengths may be negative, zero, or tie. For a finite set FFF of links, H(F)H(F)H(F) denotes the graph on VVV whose edges are the links of FFF.

  • A spanning subtree of GGG is a set FFF of edges of GGG such that H(F)H(F)H(F) is a tree on VVV. Its length is ℓw(F)=∑e∈Fw(e)\ell_w(F) = \sum_{e \in F} w(e)ℓw​(F)=∑e∈F​w(e).
  • A shortest spanning subtree (SSS) is a spanning subtree of least length among all spanning subtrees of GGG. Prim's dictionary is "shortest connection network (SCN) ↔ shortest spanning subtree (SSS)". L(G,w)L(G,w)L(G,w) denotes that least length.
  • Given the links FFF made so far, the connected components of H(F)H(F)H(F) are the isolated terminals (one terminal) and isolated fragments (two or more terminals).
  • Principle 1: any isolated terminal ttt can be connected to a nearest neighbor, a GGG-neighbor nnn with w({t,n})≤w({t,m})w(\{t,n\}) \le w(\{t,m\})w({t,n})≤w({t,m}) for all GGG-neighbors mmm of ttt.
  • Principle 2: any isolated fragment CCC can be connected to a nearest neighbor n∉Cn \notin Cn∈/C by a shortest available link {u,n}\{u,n\}{u,n}, u∈Cu \in Cu∈C; equivalently {u,n}\{u,n\}{u,n} is a shortest edge of GGG with one end in CCC and the other outside.
  • A construction is a sequence of links e0,e1,…e_0, e_1, \dotse0​,e1​,…, each an application of P1 or P2 with respect to the links before it. It is complete when it has N−1N-1N−1 links.

Only edges of GGG are possible links; in Prim's distance table a missing edge has length ∞\infty∞.

Formalization targets

Goal (§IV, p. 1396)

For every finite connected graph GGG and every www,

(∃ a complete construction) ∧ (∀ complete constructions e0,…,eN−2: {e0,…,eN−2} is a SSS of G).\Bigl(\exists\ \text{a complete construction}\Bigr) \ \wedge\ \Bigl(\forall\ \text{complete constructions } e_0,\dots,e_{N-2}:\ \{e_0,\dots,e_{N-2}\} \text{ is a SSS of } G\Bigr).(∃ a complete construction) ∧ (∀ complete constructions e0​,…,eN−2​: {e0​,…,eN−2​} is a SSS of G).

This is the sentence "P1 and P2 will provide a SSS for any connected labelled graph with any set of real edge lengths." It fixes nothing about the order of applications, the component chosen, or the tie-breaking.

Milestones

  1. Counting (§II, p. 1392): after any construction with kkk links, H(F)H(F)H(F) is acyclic with N−kN-kN−k components; a complete construction is a spanning subtree; a construction with fewer than N−1N-1N−1 links can be extended.
  2. Necessary Condition 1 (p. 1392): every terminal of a SSS is linked in it to at least one nearest neighbor.
  3. Necessary Condition 2 (p. 1392): every fragment SSS of a SSS, ∅≠S≠V\emptyset \ne S \ne V∅=S=V, is linked in it to a nearest neighbor by a shortest available link.
  4. Distinct lengths (§III, p. 1393): if the edge lengths are pairwise distinct, every link of every construction belongs to every SSS.
  5. Continuity (§III, p. 1394): w↦L(G,w)w \mapsto L(G,w)w↦L(G,w) is continuous.

Significance

The goal is the correctness theorem of a whole family of greedy minimum spanning tree procedures at once: Jarník–Prim (one growing fragment), Kruskal (globally shortest link first) and Borůvka-style interleavings all produce sequences of P1/P2 applications. Because lengths are arbitrary reals, it also covers maximum spanning trees by a sign change (p. 1397) and graphs that are not complete.

The result is classical and fully proved in the literature. What this mission adds is a machine-checked statement in exactly Prim's generality. Mathlib has spanning trees of connected graphs (SimpleGraph.Connected.exists_isTree_le) and the edge count of trees, but no minimum spanning tree theory. Existing Prove2Me items on minimum spanning trees are either restricted to complete graphs with distance matrices or state a cut property in existence form at a single vertex; none states Prim's principles or his necessary conditions.

Difficulty

The obvious argument, "each link P1 or P2 adds belongs to the shortest network", uses a unique shortest network, and that fails with ties: when two links tie, a P1/P2 link need not lie in a given SSS. Prim's own treatment of ties (§III) is an informal perturbation argument; the formal statement must hold for every tie-breaking choice made during a construction, not only for a generic perturbed instance. Negative lengths remove the easy reading "shortest connected spanning subgraph": the minimum must range over trees only. The statements also involve the component structure of H(F)H(F)H(F) as it changes during a construction, and tree paths in an arbitrary, not necessarily complete, graph.

Formalization scope

Namespace ShortestConnection.Principles, Mathlib SimpleGraph. Conventions:

  • VVV is a Fintype with decidable equality; GGG is a SimpleGraph V (at most one link per pair, no loops, which is Prim's setting). Lengths are w : Sym2 V → ℝ; only values on edges of GGG matter.
  • Link sets are Finset (Sym2 V); linkGraph F is SimpleGraph.fromEdgeSet F. A spanning subtree requires ↑F ⊆ G.edgeSet and (linkGraph F).IsTree.
  • An isolated fragment is a whole connected component of linkGraph F; the P2 condition is a single inequality against every GGG-edge leaving it, which is equivalent to "nearest neighbor and shortest link" in Prim's sense.
  • A construction is a List (Sym2 V) checked entrywise against l.take i; complete means length Fintype.card V - 1 (natural subtraction, used only for nonempty VVV).
  • LLL is sInf of the lengths of spanning subtrees; continuity is in the product topology.

Implicit hypotheses made explicit: GGG connected (hence V≠∅V \ne \emptysetV=∅) wherever an SSS or a complete construction is involved; at least two terminals for Necessary Condition 1; SSS nonempty and S≠VS \ne VS=V for Necessary Condition 2; pairwise distinct edge lengths only in milestone 4, as in the paper's temporary assumption.

The goal's existence clause rules out a vacuous formalization in which no complete construction exists; the step predicates are defined from lengths and components only, never through shortest spanning subtrees, and they are not restricted to one growing fragment or to the globally shortest link.

Needed infrastructure: tree exchange (adding an edge to a spanning tree creates one cycle; removing any other cycle edge yields a spanning tree), component counts under edge addition, and minima of finitely many continuous functions. The exchange and counting lemmas are reusable for any matroid-greedy or spanning-tree mission. Contributions of intermediate lemmas, and proofs of the milestones in any order, are welcome.

Selected references

  • R. C. Prim, Shortest Connection Networks And Some Generalizations, Bell System Technical Journal 36 (1957), 1389–1401. https://doi.org/10.1002/j.1538-7305.1957.tb01515.x
  • J. B. Kruskal, On the shortest spanning subtree of a graph and the traveling salesman problem, Proceedings of the AMS 7 (1956), 48–50. https://doi.org/10.1090/S0002-9939-1956-0078686-7
  • V. Jarník, O jistém problému minimálním, Práce Moravské Přírodovědecké Společnosti 6 (1930), 57–63.
  • O. Borůvka, O jistém problému minimálním, Práce Moravské Přírodovědecké Společnosti 3 (1926), 37–58.
  • R. L. Graham, P. Hell, On the history of the minimum spanning tree problem, Annals of the History of Computing 7 (1985), 43–57. https://doi.org/10.1109/MAHC.1985.10011
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Linear algebraNumerical AnalysisOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Updating Quasi-Newton Matrices with Limited Storage: The Limited-Storage BFGS Method Reaches the Minimizer of a Strictly Convex Quadratic in at Most n StepsResearch Paper

Motivation

Quasi-Newton methods minimize a smooth function fff on Rn\mathbb{R}^nRn by moving along dk=−Hkgkd_k = -H_k g_kdk​=−Hk​gk​, where gkg_kgk​ is the gradient and HkH_kHk​ is an approximation of the inverse Hessian built from observed gradient differences. The BFGS update is the most widely used way of building HkH_kHk​, but it stores a dense n×nn \times nn×n matrix, which is prohibitive for large nnn.

Nocedal's 1980 paper (Math. Comp. 35, 773–782) proposed keeping only the last mmm correction pairs and rebuilding the matrix from a simple initial matrix H0H_0H0​ at every step. The resulting method, called SQN in the paper, is now known as L-BFGS, and it is the default large-scale unconstrained optimizer in many numerical libraries and in machine learning. The paper's main theoretical claim is that this truncation does not destroy the finite termination of BFGS on quadratics.

Timeline:

  • 1970: Broyden, Fletcher, Goldfarb and Shanno introduce the BFGS update (references [1] and [5] of the paper).
  • 1977: Nazareth relates BFGS to conjugate gradients (Argonne Tech. Memo 282, reference [7]); his form of preconditioned conjugate gradients is the one the paper uses.
  • 1977–1978: Shanno studies the memoryless BFGS update, the case m=1m = 1m=1 (reference [11]; journal version Math. Oper. Res. 3, 1978).
  • 1980: Nocedal defines the special BFGS matrices and the SQN method and states that on quadratics with exact line searches SQN is identical to preconditioned conjugate gradients, hence has quadratic termination.
  • 1989: Liu and Nocedal (Math. Programming 45) study the method, now called L-BFGS, for large-scale problems.
  • 1998: Kolda, O'Leary and Nazareth (SIAM J. Optim. 8) treat limited-memory and update-skipping BFGS variants with exact line searches on quadratics.

Setting

Let AAA be a symmetric positive definite n×nn \times nn×n matrix and b∈Rnb \in \mathbb{R}^nb∈Rn, and let f(x)=12xTAx+bTxf(x) = \tfrac12 x^T A x + b^T xf(x)=21​xTAx+bTx, a strictly convex quadratic with gradient g(x)=Ax+bg(x) = Ax + bg(x)=Ax+b and unique minimizer x∗=−A−1bx^\ast = -A^{-1} bx∗=−A−1b.

Exact line search. Along a direction d≠0d \neq 0d=0 from xxx, the step α=−g(x)Td/dTAd\alpha = -g(x)^T d / d^T A dα=−g(x)Td/dTAd minimizes f(x+αd)f(x + \alpha d)f(x+αd).

BFGS update. For a pair (s,y)(s, y)(s,y) with ρ=1/yTs\rho = 1/y^T sρ=1/yTs and v=I−ρysTv = I - \rho y s^Tv=I−ρysT, the BFGS update of HHH is

Hˉ=vTHv+ρssT.\bar H = v^T H v + \rho s s^T .Hˉ=vTHv+ρssT.

Special BFGS matrices. Fix H0H_0H0​ symmetric positive definite and a number m≥1m \ge 1m≥1 of stored corrections. Given pairs (sj,yj)(s_j, y_j)(sj​,yj​), the special matrix HKH_KHK​ is H0H_0H0​ updated by the pairs j=K−min⁡(K,m),…,K−1j = K - \min(K, m), \dots, K-1j=K−min(K,m),…,K−1, oldest first (the paper's (4)–(5)). Only the mmm most recent pairs enter, and the matrix is rebuilt from H0H_0H0​.

SQN. Starting from x0x_0x0​, with gi=g(xi)g_i = g(x_i)gi​=g(xi​):

di=−Higi,xi+1=xi+αidi,si=xi+1−xi,yi=gi+1−gi,d_i = -H_i g_i, \qquad x_{i+1} = x_i + \alpha_i d_i, \qquad s_i = x_{i+1} - x_i,\quad y_i = g_{i+1} - g_i,di​=−Hi​gi​,xi+1​=xi​+αi​di​,si​=xi+1​−xi​,yi​=gi+1​−gi​,

with αi\alpha_iαi​ the exact step and Hi+1H_{i+1}Hi+1​ the special matrix built from the last min⁡(i+1,m)\min(i+1, m)min(i+1,m) pairs.

PCG with fixed preconditioner H0H_0H0​. d0=−H0g0d_0 = -H_0 g_0d0​=−H0​g0​, xi+1=xi+αidix_{i+1} = x_i + \alpha_i d_ixi+1​=xi​+αi​di​, di+1=−H0gi+1+βi+1did_{i+1} = -H_0 g_{i+1} + \beta_{i+1} d_idi+1​=−H0​gi+1​+βi+1​di​ with βi+1=yiTH0gi+1/yiTdi\beta_{i+1} = y_i^T H_0 g_{i+1} / y_i^T d_iβi+1​=yiT​H0​gi+1​/yiT​di​.

Formalization targets

Goal: quadratic termination of SQN

For every nnn, every symmetric positive definite AAA and H0H_0H0​, every bbb, x0x_0x0​ and every m≥1m \ge 1m≥1,

∃ k≤n:Axk+b=0,\exists\, k \le n : \quad A x_k + b = 0 ,∃k≤n:Axk​+b=0,

where xkx_kxk​ are the SQN iterates. The statement fixes no constant beyond the dimension bound nnn.

Milestones

  1. Property (a): the special matrices are positive definite whenever yiTsi>0y_i^T s_i > 0yiT​si​>0 for all iii.
  2. Eq. (7): along conjugate steps, viyi=0v_i y_i = 0vi​yi​=0 and viyj=yjv_i y_j = y_jvi​yj​=yj​ for i>ji > ji>j.
  3. Eq. (6): along conjugate steps, Hkyj=sjH_k y_j = s_jHk​yj​=sj​ for the mmm most recent jjj (when k>mk > mk>m).
  4. Eq. (10): the special matrix equals mmm sum-form BFGS corrections applied to H0H_0H0​.
  5. Eq. (15): the PCG directions satisfy diTyj=0d_i^T y_j = 0diT​yj​=0 for i≠ji \neq ji=j.
  6. Eq. (16): giTH0gj=0g_i^T H_0 g_j = 0giT​H0​gj​=0 for i≠ji \neq ji=j and giTdj=0g_i^T d_j = 0giT​dj​=0 for j<ij < ij<i.
  7. The PCG with fixed preconditioner H0H_0H0​ reaches the minimizer in at most nnn steps.
  8. SQN and this PCG produce identical iterates and directions at every step.

Significance

The result shows that storing only mmm correction pairs costs nothing on quadratics: for any m≥1m \ge 1m≥1, SQN terminates in at most nnn steps, like full BFGS and conjugate gradients. It explains why L-BFGS with small mmm is competitive, and it is the model case for later analyses of limited-memory methods (their linear convergence on uniformly convex functions, and their relation to Krylov methods). Property (b) is the reason one expects efficiency to grow with mmm: the matrix satisfies the secant equation on the mmm most recent directions.

The claims are classical and generally accepted, but the paper argues them in a few lines ("it is straightforward to show"), deferring the PCG facts (15)–(16) to a reference. No machine-checked proof of the termination of BFGS, L-BFGS or preconditioned conjugate gradients is known to this mission. A formalization would provide a verified model of L-BFGS on quadratics and a reusable development of conjugate-direction methods with a preconditioner.

Difficulty

The obvious route, "SQN is BFGS and BFGS terminates", fails: SQN discards old corrections, so the classical BFGS argument (hereditary secant conditions on all past directions) does not apply once more than mmm steps have been taken. The paper asserts the identity of SQN with preconditioned conjugate gradients in one sentence ("using a similar argument as for the SCG"), and the PCG relations it relies on are quoted from a technical report. The other difficulty is bookkeeping: the window of stored pairs shifts, the matrix is a nested product, and the runs must remain meaningful after the minimizer is reached.

Formalization scope

Vectors are Fin n → ℝ, matrices Matrix (Fin n) (Fin n) ℝ, xTyx^T yxTy is dotProduct, and syTs y^TsyT is Matrix.vecMulVec. Symmetric positive definiteness is Matrix.PosDef. Indices are 0-based, as in the paper. The exact line search is the closed-form step −gTd/dTAd-g^T d / d^T A d−gTd/dTAd. The iterations have no stopping rule: once the gradient vanishes the direction and step are zero and the iterate stays at the minimizer (Lean's 0/0=00/0 = 00/0=0). Past that point the zero pair stored by SQN leaves the BFGS step unchanged. The hypotheses are exactly the paper's: A≻0A \succ 0A≻0, H0≻0H_0 \succ 0H0​≻0, m≥1m \ge 1m≥1 and exact line searches. H0H_0H0​ need not be diagonal.

Two misprints are corrected and flagged in the items: the denominator of β\betaβ in (13) is yi−1Tdi−1y_{i-1}^T d_{i-1}yi−1T​di−1​ (as in (12) and p. 778), and the second relation of (16) is stated for j<ij < ij<i (as used on p. 778), since it fails for i<ji < ji<j.

Ruled out: SQN is defined through its own matrices (4)–(5), rebuilt from H0H_0H0​ and the last mmm pairs. It is not defined through the PCG recurrence, not by one BFGS update of the previous matrix, and not with a stop rule that returns −A−1b-A^{-1}b−A−1b. The standing assumption ykTsk>0y_k^T s_k > 0ykT​sk​>0 is not a hypothesis of any statement about a run (it fails after termination and would make the goal vacuous). With m=0m = 0m=0 SQN is steepest descent and the goal is false, so m≥1m \ge 1m≥1 is required.

Needed infrastructure: algebra of rank-one updates and of Matrix.PosDef under congruence, conjugate-direction lemmas for quadratics, and the fact that n+1n+1n+1 mutually H0H_0H0​-orthogonal vectors in Rn\mathbb{R}^nRn include a zero vector. The PCG results (milestones 5–7) are reusable beyond this mission. Proofs of any milestone, or of the goal directly, are welcome.

Selected references

  • J. Nocedal, Updating Quasi-Newton Matrices with Limited Storage, Mathematics of Computation 35(151), 1980, 773–782. https://doi.org/10.1090/s0025-5718-1980-0572855-7
  • D. F. Shanno, Conjugate gradient methods with inexact searches, Mathematics of Operations Research 3(3), 1978, 244–256. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.3.3.244
  • L. Nazareth, A Relationship Between the BFGS and Conjugate Gradient Algorithms, ANL-AMD Tech. Memo 282 (rev.), Argonne National Laboratory, 1977 (reference [7] of Nocedal 1980; no online copy located).
  • T. G. Kolda, D. P. O'Leary, L. Nazareth, BFGS with update skipping and varying memory, SIAM Journal on Optimization 8(4), 1998, 1060–1083. https://doi.org/10.1137/S1052623496306450
  • D. C. Liu, J. Nocedal, On the limited memory BFGS method for large scale optimization, Mathematical Programming 45, 1989, 503–528. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01589116
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Cubic Regularization of Newton Method and Its Global Performance I: Global Rate of Convergence to Second-Order Stationary PointsResearch Paper

Motivation

Newton's method is the standard second-order algorithm for unconstrained minimization, but without safeguards it has no global guarantee: far from a minimizer the Newton step can increase the objective, and at a point where the Hessian is indefinite the step can head for a saddle point or a maximum. The usual repairs (line search, trust regions, Levenberg–Marquardt damping) come with convergence proofs, but for nonconvex objectives those proofs typically give no rate at all, or only the rate of the gradient method.

Nesterov and Polyak (Math. Program. 108 (2006) 177–205) proposed to regularize the second-order Taylor model of the objective with a cubic term and to take as the next iterate a global minimizer of the regularized model. They showed that the resulting method has a global worst-case rate of convergence to points satisfying the second-order necessary conditions, for every objective with a Lipschitz continuous Hessian and without any convexity. That rate, O(k−2/3)O(k^{-2/3})O(k−2/3) for the gradient norm, is better than the O(k−1/2)O(k^{-1/2})O(k−1/2) of the gradient method. It became the reference point for the complexity theory of nonconvex second-order optimization: adaptive variants (Cartis, Gould and Toint, Math. Program. 127 (2011) 245–295) and lower bounds showing that O(ϵ−3/2)O(\epsilon^{-3/2})O(ϵ−3/2) iterations are optimal among second-order methods (Carmon, Duchi, Hinder and Sidford, Math. Program. 184 (2020) 71–120) are stated against it.

This mission formalizes the general convergence result of that paper, Theorem 1 of Section 3, together with the properties of the cubic step from Section 2 on which it rests.

Setting

Let F⊆RnF \subseteq \mathbb{R}^nF⊆Rn be a closed convex set with nonempty interior, and let fff be twice differentiable on FFF with gradient f′(x)f'(x)f′(x) and Hessian f′′(x)f''(x)f′′(x). A starting point x0∈int⁡Fx_0 \in \operatorname{int} Fx0​∈intF is fixed, and FFF is assumed to contain the level set L(f(x0))={x∈Rn:f(x)≤f(x0)}\mathcal{L}(f(x_0)) = \{x \in \mathbb{R}^n : f(x) \le f(x_0)\}L(f(x0​))={x∈Rn:f(x)≤f(x0​)} in its interior. Assumption 1: the Hessian is Lipschitz continuous on FFF in the spectral norm, ∥f′′(x)−f′′(y)∥≤L∥x−y∥\|f''(x) - f''(y)\| \le L\|x - y\|∥f′′(x)−f′′(y)∥≤L∥x−y∥ for all x,y∈Fx, y \in Fx,y∈F, with L>0L > 0L>0.

For a parameter M>0M > 0M>0 the cubic model of fff at xxx is

mM,x(y)=⟨f′(x),y−x⟩+12⟨f′′(x)(y−x),y−x⟩+M6∥y−x∥3.m_{M,x}(y) = \langle f'(x), y - x\rangle + \tfrac12 \langle f''(x)(y - x), y - x\rangle + \tfrac{M}{6}\|y - x\|^3 .mM,x​(y)=⟨f′(x),y−x⟩+21​⟨f′′(x)(y−x),y−x⟩+6M​∥y−x∥3.

The cubic-regularized Newton step TM(x)T_M(x)TM​(x) is any global minimizer of mM,xm_{M,x}mM,x​ over Rn\mathbb{R}^nRn; it exists because the model is continuous and coercive. Write rM(x)=∥x−TM(x)∥r_M(x) = \|x - T_M(x)\|rM​(x)=∥x−TM​(x)∥ and fˉM(x)=f(x)+min⁡ymM,x(y)\bar f_M(x) = f(x) + \min_y m_{M,x}(y)fˉ​M​(x)=f(x)+miny​mM,x​(y).

The cubic regularization of Newton method (3.3) fixes L0∈(0,L]L_0 \in (0, L]L0​∈(0,L], starts at x0x_0x0​ and, for k≥0k \ge 0k≥0, chooses Mk∈[L0,2L]M_k \in [L_0, 2L]Mk​∈[L0​,2L] such that f(TMk(xk))≤fˉMk(xk)f(T_{M_k}(x_k)) \le \bar f_{M_k}(x_k)f(TMk​​(xk​))≤fˉ​Mk​​(xk​), then sets xk+1=TMk(xk)x_{k+1} = T_{M_k}(x_k)xk+1​=TMk​​(xk​). The choice Mk=LM_k = LMk​=L always passes the test.

Write λn(A)\lambda_n(A)λn​(A) for the smallest eigenvalue of a symmetric matrix AAA. The measure of local optimality is

μM(x)=max⁡{2L+M ∥f′(x)∥, −22L+M λn(f′′(x))}.\mu_M(x) = \max\Big\{ \sqrt{\tfrac{2}{L + M}\,\|f'(x)\|},\ -\tfrac{2}{2L + M}\,\lambda_n(f''(x)) \Big\}.μM​(x)=max{L+M2​∥f′(x)∥​, −2L+M2​λn​(f′′(x))}.

It is nonnegative and vanishes exactly when f′(x)=0f'(x) = 0f′(x)=0 and f′′(x)⪰0f''(x) \succeq 0f′′(x)⪰0.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 1, inequality (3.4)

If f(x)≥f∗f(x) \ge f^*f(x)≥f∗ for all x∈Fx \in Fx∈F, then every run of method (3.3) satisfies, for every k≥1k \ge 1k≥1,

min⁡1≤i≤kμL(xi)≤83⋅(3 (f(x0)−f∗)2k⋅L0)1/3.\min_{1 \le i \le k} \mu_L(x_i) \le \frac{8}{3}\cdot\left(\frac{3\,(f(x_0) - f^*)}{2k\cdot L_0}\right)^{1/3}.1≤i≤kmin​μL​(xi​)≤38​⋅(2k⋅L0​3(f(x0​)−f∗)​)1/3.

The constant 8/38/38/3 and the exponent 1/31/31/3 are the paper's; the statement holds for every admissible choice of the parameters MkM_kMk​ and of the global minimizers xk+1x_{k+1}xk+1​.

Milestones, in attack order

  1. Lemma 1 (2.2): ∥f′(y)−f′(x)−f′′(x)(y−x)∥≤12L∥y−x∥2\|f'(y) - f'(x) - f''(x)(y - x)\| \le \tfrac12 L\|y - x\|^2∥f′(y)−f′(x)−f′′(x)(y−x)∥≤21​L∥y−x∥2 on FFF.
  2. Eq. (2.5): f′(x)+f′′(x)(T−x)+12M∥T−x∥(T−x)=0f'(x) + f''(x)(T - x) + \tfrac12 M\|T - x\|(T - x) = 0f′(x)+f′′(x)(T−x)+21​M∥T−x∥(T−x)=0 for T=TM(x)T = T_M(x)T=TM​(x).
  3. Proposition 1 (2.7): f′′(x)+12MrM(x)I⪰0f''(x) + \tfrac12 M r_M(x) I \succeq 0f′′(x)+21​MrM​(x)I⪰0.
  4. Lemma 2 (2.8): ⟨f′(x),x−TM(x)⟩≥0\langle f'(x), x - T_M(x)\rangle \ge 0⟨f′(x),x−TM​(x)⟩≥0 when f(x)≤f(x0)f(x) \le f(x_0)f(x)≤f(x0​).
  5. Lemma 4 (2.11): f(x)−fˉM(x)≥M12rM(x)3f(x) - \bar f_M(x) \ge \tfrac{M}{12} r_M(x)^3f(x)−fˉ​M​(x)≥12M​rM​(x)3.
  6. Lemma 4 (2.12): for M≥LM \ge LM≥L, TM(x)∈FT_M(x) \in FTM​(x)∈F and f(TM(x))≤fˉM(x)f(T_M(x)) \le \bar f_M(x)f(TM​(x))≤fˉ​M​(x).
  7. Lemma 3 (2.9): ∥f′(TM(x))∥≤12(L+M)rM(x)2\|f'(T_M(x))\| \le \tfrac12(L + M) r_M(x)^2∥f′(TM​(x))∥≤21​(L+M)rM​(x)2 when TM(x)∈FT_M(x) \in FTM​(x)∈F.
  8. Lemma 5: μM(TM(x))≤rM(x)\mu_M(T_M(x)) \le r_M(x)μM​(TM​(x))≤rM​(x).
  9. Theorem 1, first claim: ∑i≥0rMi(xi)3≤12L0(f(x0)−f∗)\sum_{i \ge 0} r_{M_i}(x_i)^3 \le \tfrac{12}{L_0}(f(x_0) - f^*)∑i≥0​rMi​​(xi​)3≤L0​12​(f(x0​)−f∗).
  10. Theorem 1, second claim: lim⁡i→∞μL(xi)=0\lim_{i\to\infty} \mu_L(x_i) = 0limi→∞​μL​(xi​)=0.

Significance

Inequality (3.4) is a global, dimension-free complexity bound for reaching approximate second-order stationarity. It controls both the gradient norm, min⁡1≤i≤k∥f′(xi)∥=O(k−2/3)\min_{1\le i\le k}\|f'(x_i)\| = O(k^{-2/3})min1≤i≤k​∥f′(xi​)∥=O(k−2/3), and the most negative curvature, max⁡{0,−λn(f′′(xi))}=O(k−1/3)\max\{0, -\lambda_n(f''(x_i))\} = O(k^{-1/3})max{0,−λn​(f′′(xi​))}=O(k−1/3), along the best iterate, from a single scalar potential f(x0)−f∗f(x_0) - f^*f(x0​)−f∗. The second claim of Theorem 1 gives the asymptotic counterpart: every limit point satisfies the second-order necessary conditions. Section 4 of the paper derives its faster rates for star-convex and gradient-dominated functions from the same Section 2 lemmas.

The result is proved on paper and widely cited; to our knowledge no machine-checked proof of it or of the Section 2 lemmas exists. A formalization adds a checked statement of the method with its exact constants, and reusable facts about global minimizers of cubic models (Proposition 1 in particular) that the companion missions on star-convex, gradient-dominated and locally quadratic convergence also rely on.

Difficulty

Most steps are short inequalities, but two are not. Proposition 1 is a statement about a global minimizer of a nonconvex function: the first- and second-order conditions of a local minimizer give only f′′(x)+12MrI+M2r(T−x)(T−x)⊤⪰0f''(x) + \tfrac12 M r I + \tfrac{M}{2r}(T - x)(T - x)^\top \succeq 0f′′(x)+21​MrI+2rM​(T−x)(T−x)⊤⪰0, which is weaker. The natural first attempt, "take the second-order optimality condition of the model at TTT", therefore fails. The paper proves it in Section 5.1 through a one-dimensional dual characterization of the minimizer.

The second is Lemma 2's second claim, used for (2.12): showing that TM(x)T_M(x)TM​(x) stays in FFF requires a boundary argument along the segment from xxx to TM(x)T_M(x)TM​(x), since the Taylor bounds are only available inside FFF. The remaining work is calculus in Rn\mathbb{R}^nRn: the integral form of Taylor's theorem for the gradient under a Lipschitz Hessian, and eigenvalue perturbation for the second entry of μ\muμ.

Formalization scope

The space is EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin n) for arbitrary n : ℕ. The gradient and Hessian are maps g and H with HasGradientAt f (g x) x and HasFDerivAt g (H x) x at every x ∈ F. At boundary points of FFF this asks for two-sided derivatives, a mild strengthening of "twice differentiable on FFF". The Lipschitz condition uses the operator norm, which is the spectral norm. TM(x)T_M(x)TM​(x) is represented by the predicate IsCubicStep (global minimizer of cubicModel), and every lemma is stated for every such minimizer. The run predicate IsCubicNewtonRun is 0-based. It writes fˉMk(xk)\bar f_{M_k}(x_k)fˉ​Mk​​(xk​) as f(xk)f(x_k)f(xk​) plus the model value at xk+1x_{k+1}xk+1​, which is the minimum because xk+1x_{k+1}xk+1​ attains it. λn\lambda_nλn​ is lamMin, the Rayleigh-quotient infimum over the unit sphere, which equals the smallest eigenvalue for the (symmetric) Hessian. The lower bound f∗f^*f∗ is required on FFF only. The minimum over 1≤i≤k1 \le i \le k1≤i≤k is written as the existence of an index attaining the bound.

A stationary point of the cubic model is not an admissible step, and the run must keep the test Mk∈[L0,2L]M_k \in [L_0, 2L]Mk​∈[L0​,2L] and the acceptance test. Replacing the step by any point with f(xk+1)≤f(xk)f(x_{k+1}) \le f(x_k)f(xk+1​)≤f(xk​) makes the goal false, and dropping the square root in μM\mu_MμM​ makes Lemma 5 false. The statements rule out all three. Lemma 5 carries the hypothesis TM(x)∈FT_M(x) \in FTM​(x)∈F, which its printed proof uses and which holds at every iterate.

A complete development needs the Taylor bounds (2.2)–(2.3) for vector-valued derivatives on convex sets, and first- and second-order optimality for the cubic model. It also needs a proof of Proposition 1 (Section 5.1 or any other correct argument) and eigenvalue perturbation via Rayleigh quotients. The cubic-model lemmas and Proposition 1 are reusable across the whole series. Proofs of any milestone, alternative proofs of Proposition 1, and general Mathlib-level lemmas about Rayleigh quotients are welcome.

Selected references

  • Yu. Nesterov and B. T. Polyak, Cubic regularization of Newton method and its global performance, Mathematical Programming, Ser. A 108 (2006) 177–205. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10107-006-0706-8
  • C. Cartis, N. I. M. Gould and Ph. L. Toint, Adaptive cubic regularisation methods for unconstrained optimization. Part I: motivation, convergence and numerical results, Mathematical Programming 127 (2011) 245–295. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10107-009-0286-5
  • Y. Carmon, J. C. Duchi, O. Hinder and A. Sidford, Lower bounds for finding stationary points I, Mathematical Programming 184 (2020) 71–120. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10107-019-01406-y
  • Yu. Nesterov, Introductory Lectures on Convex Optimization: A Basic Course, Kluwer, 2004. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4419-8853-9
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Critical-Path Planning and Scheduling I: Critical Jobs Occur Only When the Completion Time Is the Earliest, and Then Form a Path from Origin to TerminusResearch Paper

Motivation

The Critical-Path Method (CPM) was introduced by J. E. Kelley, Jr. (Remington Rand) and M. R. Walker (du Pont) in Critical-Path Planning and Scheduling (Proc. Eastern Joint Computer Conference, 1959, pp. 160–173, doi:10.1145/1460299.1460318). Together with PERT, developed at the same time for the Polaris programme, it became the standard way to plan and schedule large projects in construction, maintenance and engineering, and it is taught in every introductory operations research course.

The paper reduces project scheduling to arithmetic on a directed acyclic graph: the earliest and latest times of the project's events are computed by two recursions, and the jobs whose timing has no slack, the critical jobs, are singled out by an equation. Its central structural claim is that critical jobs, when they exist, form a path from the start of the project to its end. The paper states this without proof ("a detailed development being reserved for a separate paper", p. 161). This mission formalizes that claim and the facts about the two recursions on which it rests.

Setting

A project network has n+1n+1n+1 events labelled 0,1,…,n0,1,\dots,n0,1,…,n with n≥1n \ge 1n≥1: event 000 is the origin and event nnn the terminus. A job is an arrow from an event iii to an event jjj, written job (i,j)(i,j)(i,j); the jobs form a finite set PPP of ordered pairs of events. Two standing assumptions of the paper (pp. 161–162) are part of the model:

  1. every job has i<ji < ji<j (events are labelled so that the head of an arrow has the larger label);
  2. origin precedes and terminus follows every event: for every event kkk there are chains of jobs from 000 to kkk and from kkk to nnn.

Each job has a real duration yijy_{ij}yij​. The earliest event times t(0)t^{(0)}t(0) are given by display (1) of the paper,

t0(0)=0,tj(0)=max⁡ [ yij+ti(0)∣i<j, (i,j)∈P ],1≤j≤n,t_0^{(0)} = 0,\qquad t_j^{(0)} = \max\,[\,y_{ij} + t_i^{(0)} \mid i<j,\ (i,j)\in P\,],\quad 1\le j\le n,t0(0)​=0,tj(0)​=max[yij​+ti(0)​∣i<j, (i,j)∈P],1≤j≤n,

and, for a project completion time λ≥tn(0)\lambda \ge t_n^{(0)}λ≥tn(0)​, the latest event times t(1)t^{(1)}t(1) by display (2),

tn(1)=λ,ti(1)=min⁡ [ tj(1)−yij∣i<j, (i,j)∈P ],0≤i≤n−1.t_n^{(1)} = \lambda,\qquad t_i^{(1)} = \min\,[\,t_j^{(1)} - y_{ij} \mid i<j,\ (i,j)\in P\,],\quad 0\le i\le n-1.tn(1)​=λ,ti(1)​=min[tj(1)​−yij​∣i<j, (i,j)∈P],0≤i≤n−1.

The maximum time available for job (i,j)(i,j)(i,j) is tj(1)−ti(0)t_j^{(1)} - t_i^{(0)}tj(1)​−ti(0)​. The job is critical if this equals its duration, tj(1)−ti(0)=yijt_j^{(1)} - t_i^{(0)} = y_{ij}tj(1)​−ti(0)​=yij​, and a floater if it exceeds it. A critical path is a contiguous path of critical jobs from origin to terminus: events 0=v0,v1,…,vk=n0 = v_0, v_1, \dots, v_k = n0=v0​,v1​,…,vk​=n with every (vr−1,vr)(v_{r-1}, v_r)(vr−1​,vr​) a critical job of PPP.

In the Lean development these are ProjectNetwork n (with field P), earliest N y, latest N y λ, maxTimeAvailable, IsCritical, IsFloater and IsCriticalPath, in the namespace CriticalPath.Events.

Formalization targets

Goal: critical jobs force λ=tn(0)\lambda = t_n^{(0)}λ=tn(0)​ and a critical path (p. 163)

For every project network, durations yyy and completion time λ≥tn(0)\lambda \ge t_n^{(0)}λ≥tn(0)​,

(∃(i,j)∈P, tj(1)−ti(0)=yij)  ⟹  λ=tn(0) ∧ ∃ a critical path.\bigl(\exists (i,j)\in P,\ t_j^{(1)} - t_i^{(0)} = y_{ij}\bigr) \;\Longrightarrow\; \lambda = t_n^{(0)} \ \wedge\ \exists\ \text{a critical path}.(∃(i,j)∈P, tj(1)​−ti(0)​=yij​)⟹λ=tn(0)​ ∧ ∃ a critical path.

This is the paper's "A project will contain critical jobs only when λ=tn(0)\lambda = t_n^{(0)}λ=tn(0)​. If a project does contain critical jobs, then it also contains at least one contiguous path of critical jobs through the project diagram from origin to terminus." Only the "only when" direction is asserted, as on the page.

Milestones

  1. Display (1), pp. 162–163. t(0)t^{(0)}t(0) is the least vector ttt with t0=0t_0 = 0t0​=0 and yij≤tj−tiy_{ij} \le t_j - t_iyij​≤tj​−ti​ for every job.
  2. Display (2), p. 163. For λ≥tn(0)\lambda \ge t_n^{(0)}λ≥tn(0)​, tn(1)=λt_n^{(1)} = \lambdatn(1)​=λ and t(1)t^{(1)}t(1) is the greatest vector ttt with tn≤λt_n \le \lambdatn​≤λ and yij≤tj−tiy_{ij} \le t_j - t_iyij​≤tj​−ti​ for every job.
  3. Critical or floater, p. 163. For λ≥tn(0)\lambda \ge t_n^{(0)}λ≥tn(0)​, ti(0)≤ti(1)t_i^{(0)} \le t_i^{(1)}ti(0)​≤ti(1)​ for every event, and every job is critical or a floater: tj(1)−ti(0)≥yijt_j^{(1)} - t_i^{(0)} \ge y_{ij}tj(1)​−ti(0)​≥yij​.
  4. Delay of a critical job, p. 163. Lengthening a critical job by δ≥0\delta \ge 0δ≥0 raises tn(0)t_n^{(0)}tn(0)​ by exactly δ\deltaδ.

Significance

The result. The theorem is what makes the method's name meaningful: it says that the jobs without slack are not scattered but line up along an origin–terminus path, and that such jobs exist only when the project is scheduled at its earliest possible completion time. Project managers use this to decide which jobs to watch, which to expedite, and which may slip; the delay statement (milestone 4) is the quantitative form of that advice. The characterisations of (1) and (2) as least and greatest feasible schedules are the bridge between CPM and linear programming: they identify t(0)t^{(0)}t(0) and t(1)t^{(1)}t(1) with extreme solutions of the system of difference constraints yij≤tj−tiy_{ij} \le t_j - t_iyij​≤tj​−ti​, which the paper's own §3 uses to build the project cost curve.

Formalizing it. The results are classical and folklore, but the paper proves none of them, and textbook treatments usually define the critical path as a longest path, which makes the goal a tautology. This mission states the claims with the paper's own definitions: criticality by the float equation, event times by the recursions. To the best of current knowledge no machine-checked version of these statements for activity-on-arrow networks exists; the platform has a related activity-on-node development (Brucker and Knust, Complex Scheduling) in which the critical path is defined as a longest path.

Difficulty

The recursions (1) and (2) are local: each event looks only at its immediate predecessors or successors. The goal is global: from one critical job it asserts a statement about the whole completion time and a whole origin–terminus path. The float equation tj(1)−ti(0)=yijt_j^{(1)} - t_i^{(0)} = y_{ij}tj(1)​−ti(0)​=yij​ mixes a quantity computed forward from the origin with one computed backward from the terminus, and neither recursion alone says anything about the other. The naive reading "a critical job lies on a longest path" is not available as a definition: it is, in substance, what has to be established from the recursions. The formal overhead is the well-founded recursion on the labels, in both directions, and the bookkeeping of lists of events forming a path.

Formalization scope

Events are Fin (n + 1), origin 0, terminus Fin.last n, with 1 ≤ n. Jobs are a Finset of ordered pairs, so there is at most one job per ordered pair. The standing assumptions (labels increase along jobs; origin precedes and terminus follows every event, via Relation.ReflTransGen) are fields of the structure ProjectNetwork and are never dropped. Durations and times are real numbers; durations are a function Fin (n+1) → Fin (n+1) → ℝ read only on jobs of P, with no sign condition, as in the paper's deterministic case.

The event times are defined by the recursions (1) and (2) themselves, by well-founded recursion on the label with Finset.sup'/Finset.inf' over the predecessor/successor set; these sets are nonempty by the standing assumptions, so no fallback value exists. The latest times are defined for every real λ\lambdaλ; the paper's assumption λ≥tn(0)\lambda \ge t_n^{(0)}λ≥tn(0)​ is a hypothesis of every theorem that uses them.

Disclosed readings: "earliest time occurance" (milestone 1) and "latest time … relative to a fixed project completion time" (milestone 2) are read as least and greatest vectors satisfying the job constraints yij≤tj−tiy_{ij} \le t_j - t_iyij​≤tj​−ti​ (the paper's constraint (8), p. 165); milestone 3 is the fact implicit in the dichotomy "critical or floater"; "comparable delay" (milestone 4) is read as an exact delay of δ\deltaδ in tn(0)t_n^{(0)}tn(0)​ for δ≥0\delta \ge 0δ≥0.

A trivializing formalization is ruled out: defining a critical job or path through longest paths, or taking t(0)t^{(0)}t(0) and t(1)t^{(1)}t(1) as arbitrary functions satisfying (1) and (2), would make the goal a restatement of its definitions; here criticality is the float equation and the times are computed by the recursions. Dropping the reachability assumptions would make (2) ill-defined at events without successors.

Contributions welcome: proofs of the milestones, general lemmas on longest paths in finite labelled DAGs and on difference constraints yij≤tj−tiy_{ij} \le t_j - t_iyij​≤tj​−ti​, which are reusable for the companion mission on the project cost curve.

Selected references

  • J. E. Kelley, Jr. and M. R. Walker, Critical-Path Planning and Scheduling, Papers presented at the December 1–3, 1959, Eastern Joint IRE-AIEE-ACM Computer Conference, pp. 160–173, 1959. doi:10.1145/1460299.1460318
  • J. E. Kelley, Jr., Critical-Path Planning and Scheduling: Mathematical Basis, Operations Research 9(3), pp. 296–320, 1961. doi:10.1287/opre.9.3.296
  • P. Brucker and S. Knust, Complex Scheduling, 2nd ed., Springer, 2012. doi:10.1007/978-3-642-23929-8
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Dynamic ProgrammingMarkov ChainStochastic Systems·Captain: mikedeng1

Markov-Renewal Programming. I: Formulation, Finite Return Models: Policy Iteration Finds an Optimal Stationary Policy for the Discounted Infinite-Horizon Markov-Renewal ProgramResearch Paper

Motivation

Many operational systems move between a finite number of states at random times: a machine alternates between working and repair, a queue between occupancy levels, an inventory between stock positions. When the time spent in a state is not exponential and not a fixed period, neither discrete-time Markov decision processes nor continuous-time Markov chains describe the system faithfully. William S. Jewell's 1963 paper Markov-Renewal Programming. I extends Howard's Markov decision processes to Markov-renewal processes (also called semi-Markov processes), in which the time between transitions is a random variable whose law depends on the current state, the next state, and the decision taken. The resulting model, now called a semi-Markov decision process, is standard in maintenance, queueing control and reliability.

Timeline:

  • 1954: Lévy, Smith and Takács independently introduce Markov-renewal and semi-Markov processes; Pyke later surveys them.
  • 1960: Howard, Dynamic Programming and Markov Processes, introduces policy iteration for finite discrete-time Markov decision processes.
  • 1962: Blackwell, Discrete Dynamic Programming, shows that for the discounted discrete-time problem a stationary policy is optimal among all policies.
  • 1963: Jewell formulates Markov-renewal programming, with a continuous discount factor α, and carries Howard's algorithm and Blackwell's stationarity result over to it. Part II of the paper treats the undiscounted (infinite-return) models.

Setting

A Markov-renewal program has a finite set of states SSS (the paper's i=1,…,Ni = 1, \dots, Ni=1,…,N) and a finite, nonempty set of alternatives (the paper's z=1,…,Zz = 1, \dots, Zz=1,…,Z), each available in every state. For each alternative zzz and states i,ji, ji,j it specifies:

  • a transition probability pijz≥0p^z_{ij} \ge 0pijz​≥0, with ∑jpijz=1\sum_j p^z_{ij} = 1∑j​pijz​=1;
  • a sojourn-time distribution FijzF^z_{ij}Fijz​, the law of the time τ\tauτ between entering iii and moving to jjj, with τ≥0\tau \ge 0τ≥0 and Fijz(0)=0F^z_{ij}(0) = 0Fijz​(0)=0;
  • for each continuous discount factor α>0\alpha > 0α>0, a real number ρijz(α)\rho^z_{ij}(\alpha)ρijz​(α), the expected discounted return earned during that transition.

The Laplace–Stieltjes transform f~ijz(s)=∫0∞e−st dFijz(t)\tilde f^z_{ij}(s) = \int_0^\infty e^{-st}\,dF^z_{ij}(t)f~​ijz​(s)=∫0∞​e−stdFijz​(t) is the expected discount E[e−sτ]\mathbb E[e^{-s\tau}]E[e−sτ] over one interval. The average one-step return is ρiz(α)=∑jpijzρijz(α)\rho^z_i(\alpha) = \sum_j p^z_{ij}\rho^z_{ij}(\alpha)ρiz​(α)=∑j​pijz​ρijz​(α), and for a vector of returns vvv the test quantity is

ρiz(α)+∑jpijz f~ijz(α) vj.\rho^z_i(\alpha) + \sum_j p^z_{ij}\,\tilde f^z_{ij}(\alpha)\,v_j .ρiz​(α)+j∑​pijz​f~​ijz​(α)vj​.

A stationary policy is a map d:S→Ad : S \to Ad:S→A; a nonstationary policy is a sequence π=(π0,π1,… )\pi = (\pi_0, \pi_1, \dots)π=(π0​,π1​,…) of such maps, πk\pi_kπk​ being used at the kkk-th transition. The nnn-step return Viπ(n)V^\pi_i(n)Viπ​(n) of a policy, with boundary rewards Vi(0,α)V_i(0,\alpha)Vi​(0,α), is the test quantity of π0(i)\pi_0(i)π0​(i) applied to the (n−1)(n-1)(n−1)-step return of the shifted policy; the optimal nnn-step return Vi(n,α)V_i(n,\alpha)Vi​(n,α) of equation (6) replaces π0(i)\pi_0(i)π0​(i) by a maximum over zzz. The value-determination equations (15) of a stationary policy ddd are vi=ρid(i)(α)+∑jpijd(i)f~ijd(i)(α)vjv_i = \rho^{d(i)}_i(\alpha) + \sum_j p^{d(i)}_{ij}\tilde f^{d(i)}_{ij}(\alpha) v_jvi​=ρid(i)​(α)+∑j​pijd(i)​f~​ijd(i)​(α)vj​.

The algorithm of Fig. 1 alternates two steps: solve (15) for the current policy, then in every state pick an alternative maximizing the test quantity, keeping the old alternative if it still attains the maximum. It stops when two successive policies are identical.

Formalization targets

Goal (p. 947)

For every α>0\alpha > 0α>0: (15) has a unique solution for every stationary policy, and every run (dk,vk)(d_k, v_k)(dk​,vk​) of Fig. 1 reaches dK+1=dKd_{K+1} = d_KdK+1​=dK​ with K<ZNK < Z^NK<ZN, where

lim⁡n→∞VidK(n)=(vK)i,lim⁡n→∞Viπ(n)≤(vK)i  ∀π,lim⁡n→∞Vi(n,α)=(vK)i,\lim_{n\to\infty} V^{d_K}_i(n) = (v_K)_i,\qquad \lim_{n\to\infty} V^\pi_i(n) \le (v_K)_i \ \ \forall \pi,\qquad \lim_{n\to\infty} V_i(n,\alpha) = (v_K)_i ,n→∞lim​VidK​​(n)=(vK​)i​,n→∞lim​Viπ​(n)≤(vK​)i​  ∀π,n→∞lim​Vi​(n,α)=(vK​)i​,

for every state iii and all boundary rewards, every limit existing. This is the paper's "the algorithm of Fig. 1 produces an optimal, stationary policy that is as good as any optimal, nonstationary policy".

Milestones

  1. p. 945: 0≤pijzf~ijz(s)<10 \le p^z_{ij}\tilde f^z_{ij}(s) < 10≤pijz​f~​ijz​(s)<1 for s>0s > 0s>0.
  2. Claim (a): (15) has exactly one solution for each stationary policy.
  3. Eq. (15): the nnn-step return of a stationary policy converges to a solution of (15).
  4. p. 946: I−q~(α)I - \tilde q(\alpha)I−q~​(α) is invertible and ([I−q~(α)]−1)ii≥1([I-\tilde q(\alpha)]^{-1})_{ii} \ge 1([I−q~​(α)]−1)ii​≥1.
  5. Claim (b): a change of policy raises the return of some state and lowers none.
  6. Claim (c): a policy reproduced by the improvement step is optimal among stationary policies.
  7. Claim (d): a run of Fig. 1 terminates within ZNZ^NZN cycles.
  8. Eq. (14): Vi(n,α)V_i(n,\alpha)Vi​(n,α) converges, independently of the boundary rewards, to a solution of vi=max⁡z{ρiz(α)+∑jpijzf~ijz(α)vj}v_i = \max_z\{\rho^z_i(\alpha) + \sum_j p^z_{ij}\tilde f^z_{ij}(\alpha) v_j\}vi​=maxz​{ρiz​(α)+∑j​pijz​f~​ijz​(α)vj​}.
  9. p. 946: some stationary policy's return dominates the limiting return of every nonstationary policy.

Significance

The result says that the infinite-step discounted Markov-renewal program is solved exactly, in finitely many cycles, by a finite-dimensional algorithm, and that the answer is a stationary policy. As the paper notes, this matters operationally because a nonstationary policy is hard to follow. The sojourn distributions enter only through the numbers f~ijz(α)\tilde f^z_{ij}(\alpha)f~​ijz​(α), so the same algorithm serves any sojourn-time law. For fixed α\alphaα the model is a discounted Markov decision process whose discount factor depends on the transition, which contains Howard's and Blackwell's constant-discount problem as the case of intervals of fixed length (p. 943).

The results are classical and proved in the literature. The paper itself refers the proofs to Howard and Blackwell. Machine-checked versions exist on this platform for finite stochastic shortest path and constant-discount problems (Bertsekas, Dynamic Programming and Optimal Control, Prop. 7.2.2 and 7.3.1, mission Dynamic Programming and Optimal Control VII). No formal treatment of Markov-renewal programs, of transition-dependent discounting, or of the retention rule of Fig. 1 is known to exist. The mission produces a verified policy-iteration theorem for semi-Markov decision processes, with an explicit termination bound and the comparison against nonstationary policies.

Difficulty

The discount over one transition, f~ijz(α)\tilde f^z_{ij}(\alpha)f~​ijz​(α), varies with iii, jjj and zzz, so the problem is not a constant-γ\gammaγ contraction of textbook form; the relevant bound is that every row of q~(α)\tilde q(\alpha)q~​(α) sums to less than one, which rests on Fijz(0)=0F^z_{ij}(0) = 0Fijz​(0)=0. Entries in [0,1)[0, 1)[0,1) alone, the paper's stated justification of Claim (a), do not make I−q~(α)I - \tilde q(\alpha)I−q~​(α) invertible: the 2×22 \times 22×2 matrix with every entry 1/21/21/2 has entries in [0,1)[0,1)[0,1), yet III minus it is singular.

Finite termination is not automatic either. If the improvement step may switch between tied maximizers, the iterates can cycle forever between two policies with equal returns; the retention rule of Fig. 1 excludes this, and Claim (b) must deliver a strict increase in some state, with no decrease anywhere, to rule out revisiting a policy. Comparing with nonstationary policies requires controlling returns of arbitrary policy sequences, whose limits must be shown to exist, not assumed.

Formalization scope

  • States and alternatives are finite types; alternatives are nonempty. Every alternative is available in every state.
  • FijzF^z_{ij}Fijz​ is a probability measure on R\mathbb RR with no mass on (−∞,0](-\infty, 0](−∞,0]. The transform is integrated over (0,∞)(0, \infty)(0,∞), which carries all the mass.
  • The one-transition returns ρijz(α)\rho^z_{ij}(\alpha)ρijz​(α) are arbitrary real numbers, a generalization of the paper's Stieltjes integral (4), which is not formalized. The reward functions Rijz(t∣τ)R^z_{ij}(t\mid\tau)Rijz​(t∣τ) do not appear.
  • Returns of policies are defined by the one-step recursion (the policy form of (6)); the Markov-renewal process is not built as a stochastic process.
  • Policies are the paper's: deterministic and Markov, nonstationary ones indexed by the number of transitions made. Randomized and history-dependent policies are not in the comparison class.
  • The following informal words are read as follows. "Solve the set of simultaneous equations": (15) has exactly one solution. "Strictly increases the expected return of at least one state": no state's return decreases and one strictly increases, under the hypothesis that the policy changed. "No other policy can lead to higher expected returns" in Claim (c): no stationary policy. "Terminates in a finite number of cycles": two successive policies coincide at some cycle K<ZNK < Z^NK<ZN. "If there is no improvement in the test quantity, retain the same alternative": the old alternative is kept whenever it attains the maximum. "Optimal" and "as good as any nonstationary policy": the limiting return of the returned policy dominates that of every policy from every state, for all boundary rewards. "lim⁡n→∞Vi(n,α)\lim_{n\to\infty} V_i(n,\alpha)limn→∞​Vi​(n,α)": the limit is proved to exist. "max⁡z\max_zmaxz​": a maximum over the finite nonempty set of alternatives.
  • Eq. (14) is printed with vi(α)v_i(\alpha)vi​(α) inside the sum over jjj; the formalization uses vj(α)v_j(\alpha)vj​(α), as (6), (15) and Fig. 1 do.
  • Every statement fixes one α>0\alpha > 0α>0. The undiscounted models (16)–(19), the finite-time and mixed-horizon models (9)–(13), and the infinite-time case of the stationarity result are out of scope.
  • The return of a policy is never defined through a matrix inverse, whose Mathlib value for a singular matrix is 000; (15) is a predicate, and the goal asserts unique solvability, so a vacuous reading through junk inverses or assumed limits is excluded.

Reusable infrastructure: bounds for substochastic matrices with row sums below one (invertibility, Neumann series, nonnegative inverse), convergence of iterated Bellman operators with transition-dependent discount, and the policy-iteration termination argument with a tie-breaking rule. Proofs of any milestone and alternative arguments are welcome.

Selected references

  • W. S. Jewell, Markov-Renewal Programming. I: Formulation, Finite Return Models, Operations Research 11(6), 938–948, 1963. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.11.6.938
  • W. S. Jewell, Markov-Renewal Programming. II: Infinite Return Models, Example, Operations Research 11(6), 949–971, 1963. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.11.6.949
  • R. A. Howard, Dynamic Programming and Markov Processes, MIT Press, 1960.
  • D. Blackwell, Discrete Dynamic Programming, Annals of Mathematical Statistics 33(2), 719–726, 1962. https://doi.org/10.1214/aoms/1177704593
  • R. Pyke, Markov Renewal Processes: Definitions and Preliminary Properties, Annals of Mathematical Statistics 32(4), 1231–1242, 1961. https://doi.org/10.1214/aoms/1177704863
  • D. P. Bertsekas, Dynamic Programming and Optimal Control, Vol. I, 3rd ed., Athena Scientific, 2005, Section 7.2–7.3.
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Linear algebraNumerical AnalysisOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Methods of Conjugate Gradients for Solving Linear Systems II: Each Conjugate Gradient Step Shortens the Error VectorResearch Paper

Motivation

The conjugate gradient method (cg-method) of Hestenes and Stiefel is the standard iterative solver for linear systems Ax=kAx=kAx=k with a symmetric positive definite matrix AAA. It is used for the large sparse systems of finite-element and finite-difference discretizations, as the inner solver of Newton-type and interior-point methods in optimization, and as the prototype of the Krylov subspace methods. Its original 1952 paper (Hestenes and Stiefel, J. Res. NBS 49(6), 1952) already presented it as two things at once: a direct method that reaches the exact solution in at most nnn steps, and a method of successive approximations whose intermediate estimates are useful in their own right.

The second view needs a guarantee that the intermediate estimates actually approach the solution. The method is built to decrease the AAA-weighted error f(x)=(h−x,A(h−x))f(x)=(h-x,A(h-x))f(x)=(h−x,A(h−x)), and the residual ∣k−Axi∣|k-Ax_i|∣k−Axi​∣ need not decrease (Section 18 of the paper, p. 432, notes that it can increase at every step). Theorem 6:3 of the paper supplies the guarantee in the plain Euclidean length: the distance ∣h−xi∣|h-x_i|∣h−xi​∣ from the estimate to the solution decreases strictly at every step, by an exactly computable amount. This mission formalizes that theorem together with the relations from Sections 5 and 6 of the paper on which its proof rests.

Timeline:

  • 1952: Hestenes and Stiefel introduce the method and prove, in one paper, finite termination (Theorems 4:2 and 5:2), the monotone decrease of the error function fff (Theorem 6:1), and the monotone decrease of the Euclidean error (Theorem 6:3). The later literature on cg as an iterative method for large sparse systems takes these properties as its starting point.

Setting

Let AAA be a real n×nn\times nn×n matrix that is symmetric and positive definite, let k∈Rnk\in\mathbb{R}^nk∈Rn, and let hhh be the solution of Ah=kAh=kAh=k. Write (x,y)=x1y1+⋯+xnyn(x,y)=x_1y_1+\cdots+x_ny_n(x,y)=x1​y1​+⋯+xn​yn​ and ∣x∣2=(x,x)|x|^2=(x,x)∣x∣2=(x,x). From an arbitrary starting point x0x_0x0​, the cg-method (5:1) computes estimates xix_ixi​, residuals rir_iri​ and direction vectors pip_ipi​ by

p0=r0=k−Ax0,ai=∣ri∣2(pi,Api),xi+1=xi+aipi,ri+1=ri−aiApi,bi=∣ri+1∣2∣ri∣2,pi+1=ri+1+bipi.p_0=r_0=k-Ax_0,\quad a_i=\frac{|r_i|^2}{(p_i,Ap_i)},\quad x_{i+1}=x_i+a_ip_i,\quad r_{i+1}=r_i-a_iAp_i,\quad b_i=\frac{|r_{i+1}|^2}{|r_i|^2},\quad p_{i+1}=r_{i+1}+b_ip_i .p0​=r0​=k−Ax0​,ai​=(pi​,Api​)∣ri​∣2​,xi+1​=xi​+ai​pi​,ri+1​=ri​−ai​Api​,bi​=∣ri​∣2∣ri+1​∣2​,pi+1​=ri+1​+bi​pi​.

The error vector of xix_ixi​ is yi=h−xiy_i=h-x_iyi​=h−xi​. The error function (4:5) is f(x)=(h−x,A(h−x))f(x)=(h-x,A(h-x))f(x)=(h−x,A(h−x)), which is nonnegative and vanishes only at x=hx=hx=h. The Rayleigh quotient (4:12) of a vector z≠0z\neq 0z=0 is μ(z)=(z,Az)/∣z∣2\mu(z)=(z,Az)/|z|^2μ(z)=(z,Az)/∣z∣2. The Lean development names these cgIter A k x₀ i (with fields .x, .r, .p), cgAlpha for aia_iai​, errorFun A h x and rayleigh A z.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 6:3

For every step that the method performs, that is, every iii with ri≠0r_i\neq 0ri​=0,

∣yi∣2−∣yi+1∣2=f(xi+1)+f(xi)μ(pi)and∣yi+1∣<∣yi∣.|y_i|^2-|y_{i+1}|^2=\frac{f(x_{i+1})+f(x_i)}{\mu(p_i)}\qquad\text{and}\qquad |y_{i+1}|<|y_i| .∣yi​∣2−∣yi+1​∣2=μ(pi​)f(xi+1​)+f(xi​)​and∣yi+1​∣<∣yi​∣.

The paper writes the step from xi−1x_{i-1}xi−1​ to xix_ixi​; the Lean statement shifts the index by one. The goal holds for every dimension nnn, every symmetric positive definite AAA, every kkk and every x0x_0x0​.

Milestones

  1. Theorems 4:2 and 5:2: some m≤nm\le nm≤n has xm=hx_m=hxm​=h.
  2. Theorem 5:3, (5:6a): (pi,pj)=∣rj∣2∣pi∣2/∣ri∣2(p_i,p_j)=|r_j|^2|p_i|^2/|r_i|^2(pi​,pj​)=∣rj​∣2∣pi​∣2/∣ri​∣2 for i≤ji\le ji≤j.
  3. Theorem 6:1, (6:1): f(xi)−f(xi+1)=ai∣ri∣2=μ(pi)∣xi−xi+1∣2f(x_i)-f(x_{i+1})=a_i|r_i|^2=\mu(p_i)|x_i-x_{i+1}|^2f(xi​)−f(xi+1​)=ai​∣ri​∣2=μ(pi​)∣xi​−xi+1​∣2.
  4. Theorem 6:1, (6:2): f(xi)−f(xj)=∑l=ij−1al∣rl∣2f(x_i)-f(x_j)=\sum_{l=i}^{j-1}a_l|r_l|^2f(xi​)−f(xj​)=∑l=ij−1​al​∣rl​∣2 for i<ji<ji<j.
  5. Section 6, (6:6): (yi+1,xi+1−xi)=f(xi+1)/μ(pi)(y_{i+1},x_{i+1}-x_i)=f(x_{i+1})/\mu(p_i)(yi+1​,xi+1​−xi​)=f(xi+1​)/μ(pi​).

Significance

The theorem is what makes an early stop of the cg-method safe in the norm a user usually cares about. Every intermediate estimate is closer to the solution, in Euclidean distance, than the previous one, and the identity (6:5) states by how much. It also separates the cg-method from methods that minimize the residual: the AAA-norm error, the Euclidean error and the residual behave differently, and only the first two are monotone along cg.

The results are proved in the 1952 paper. They have not been formalized: the Prove2Me library has no statement of the conjugate gradient recursion (5:1), and Mathlib has none either. What this mission adds is a machine-checked version of the paper's Section 6 argument for the recursion exactly as printed, including the case analysis at termination that the paper leaves implicit, and a reusable Lean definition of the cg iteration with its basic identities.

Difficulty

The obvious argument does not reach the conclusion. The method decreases f(x)=(y,Ay)f(x)=(y,Ay)f(x)=(y,Ay) at every step, but a decrease in this AAA-weighted norm does not imply a decrease in the Euclidean norm: for a single step along an arbitrary direction, even the best step for fff can lengthen the Euclidean error. So the theorem cannot be proved one step at a time from the local minimization property. It depends on how the current direction relates to all the later directions of the same run, and those relations in turn rest on the mutual orthogonality of the residuals and the conjugacy of the directions, which are established by an induction over the whole run.

A second difficulty is bookkeeping at the end of the run. The recursion divides by ∣ri∣2|r_i|^2∣ri​∣2 and by (pi,Api)(p_i,Ap_i)(pi​,Api​), which vanish after termination. Every milestone has to hold, or be guarded, past that point, and the goal needs the hypothesis ri≠0r_i\neq 0ri​=0 exactly because the strict inequality fails once xi=hx_i=hxi​=h.

Formalization scope

Vectors are Fin n → ℝ, the scalar product is dotProduct (⬝ᵥ), AxAxAx is Matrix.mulVec (*ᵥ), and the standing assumption is A.PosDef, which in Mathlib includes symmetry. The solution hhh is a variable with the hypothesis A *ᵥ h = k. Indices are 0-based. The cg recursion is the definition cgIter, which computes (5:1b)–(5:1f) literally and in order; it has no stopping rule, and Lean's convention t/0=0t/0=0t/0=0 makes it stay at hhh with ri=pi=0r_i=p_i=0ri​=pi​=0 once rm=0r_m=0rm​=0. Lengths appear squared, as (y,y)(y,y)(y,y). The milestones are stated for every index without a termination guard, because both sides of each identity vanish after termination; only the goal carries ri≠0r_i\neq 0ri​=0.

Two formalizations would trivialize the goal and are ruled out. The goal does not assume termination (xm=hx_m=hxm​=h) or any bound on iii: it quantifies over every cg run and every step that takes place. And it is about the Euclidean length ∣h−xi∣|h-x_i|∣h−xi​∣, not the error function fff (that is Theorem 6:1, a different and weaker statement) and not the residual.

A complete development needs Theorem 5:1 (orthogonality of residuals, conjugacy of directions) for the literal recursion, the identities (5:2) and (5:3c), and the positivity of (p,Ap)(p,Ap)(p,Ap) for p≠0p\neq 0p=0. These are reusable for any further work on the cg-method, including the sister mission on finite termination. Proofs of any milestone, and alternative proofs of Theorem 6:3 through the Krylov-subspace characterization, are welcome.

Selected references

  • M. R. Hestenes and E. Stiefel, Methods of Conjugate Gradients for Solving Linear Systems, J. Res. Natl. Bur. Stand. 49(6), 409–436, 1952. https://doi.org/10.6028/jres.049.044 (publisher's scan: https://nvlpubs.nist.gov/nistpubs/jres/049/jresv49n6p409_A1b.pdf)
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Linear algebraNumerical AnalysisOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Methods of Conjugate Gradients for Solving Linear Systems I: Finite Termination of the Conjugate Gradient MethodResearch Paper

Motivation

Solving a linear system Ax=kAx = kAx=k with a large symmetric positive definite matrix AAA is a basic task of scientific computing: it arises from discretized elliptic equations, least-squares problems and the Newton steps of optimization methods. In 1952 Magnus Hestenes and Eduard Stiefel published the conjugate gradient method (cg-method) (J. Res. Natl. Bur. Stand. 49 (1952) 409–436). The method uses AAA only through matrix–vector products and stores a few vectors. The paper's abstract states its central property in one sentence: "The solution is given in nnn steps."

The paper obtains this property from a more general scheme, the method of conjugate directions (cd-method), which also contains Gaussian elimination as a special case. Its argument has two parts. Every cd-method with nonzero directions reaches the solution within nnn steps (Theorem 4:2). The cg-method is a cd-method (Theorem 5:2), which follows from the orthogonality and conjugacy relations of Theorem 5:1. This mission formalizes that chain.

Setting

Vectors are real nnn-tuples, with scalar product (x,y)=x1y1+⋯+xnyn(x, y) = x_1y_1 + \cdots + x_ny_n(x,y)=x1​y1​+⋯+xn​yn​ and squared length ∣x∣2=(x,x)|x|^2 = (x, x)∣x∣2=(x,x). The matrix AAA is real, n×nn \times nn×n, symmetric and positive definite, which is the paper's standing assumption (p. 410). The solution hhh satisfies Ah=kAh = kAh=k. The residual of an estimate xxx is r=k−Axr = k - Axr=k−Ax. Two vectors x,yx, yx,y are conjugate when (x,Ay)=0(x, Ay) = 0(x,Ay)=0.

The cg-method (eq. (3:1), p. 411) starts from an arbitrary estimate x0x_0x0​ and sets p0=r0=k−Ax0p_0 = r_0 = k - Ax_0p0​=r0​=k−Ax0​. Given xix_ixi​, rir_iri​, pip_ipi​, it computes

ai=∣ri∣2(pi,Api),xi+1=xi+aipi,ri+1=ri−aiApi,bi=∣ri+1∣2∣ri∣2,pi+1=ri+1+bipi.a_i = \frac{|r_i|^2}{(p_i, Ap_i)},\quad x_{i+1} = x_i + a_i p_i,\quad r_{i+1} = r_i - a_i Ap_i,\quad b_i = \frac{|r_{i+1}|^2}{|r_i|^2},\quad p_{i+1} = r_{i+1} + b_i p_i.ai​=(pi​,Api​)∣ri​∣2​,xi+1​=xi​+ai​pi​,ri+1​=ri​−ai​Api​,bi​=∣ri​∣2∣ri+1​∣2​,pi+1​=ri+1​+bi​pi​.

In Lean the iterates are cgIter A k x₀ i, a structure with fields x, r, p. The step length is cgA.

The cd-method (Section 4, p. 412) chooses an arbitrary first direction p0p_0p0​ and then sets xi+1=xi+aipix_{i+1} = x_i + a_i p_ixi+1​=xi​+ai​pi​ with ai=(pi,ri)/(pi,Api)a_i = (p_i, r_i)/(p_i, Ap_i)ai​=(pi​,ri​)/(pi​,Api​) and ri=k−Axir_i = k - Ax_iri​=k−Axi​. Each new direction pi+1p_{i+1}pi+1​ may be any vector conjugate to p0,…,pip_0, \dots, p_ip0​,…,pi​. Because the directions are free, a cd-run is a property of sequences: IsCDRun A k x r p.

Formalization targets

Goal: finite termination of the cg-method

For every nnn, every symmetric positive definite AAA, every kkk and hhh with Ah=kAh = kAh=k, and every initial estimate x0x_0x0​,

∃ m≤n:xm=h,\exists\, m \le n:\quad x_m = h,∃m≤n:xm​=h,

where xmx_mxm​ is the mmm-th cg iterate. This is the statement of the abstract and of Section 3 (p. 410): "one will reach an estimate xmx_mxm​ (m≤nm \le nm≤n) at which rm=0r_m = 0rm​=0. This estimate is the desired solution hhh."

Milestones

  1. Theorem 4:1 (p. 412). For every cd-run, the directions are mutually conjugate (4:3a). The residual rir_iri​ is orthogonal to p0,…,pi−1p_0, \dots, p_{i-1}p0​,…,pi−1​ (4:3b). The products (pi,rj)(p_i, r_j)(pi​,rj​) are the same for all j≤ij \le ij≤i (4:3c). Hence ai=(pi,r0)/(pi,Api)a_i = (p_i, r_0)/(p_i, Ap_i)ai​=(pi​,r0​)/(pi​,Api​) (4:4).
  2. Theorem 4:2 (p. 412). Every cd-run whose directions p0,…,pn−1p_0, \dots, p_{n-1}p0​,…,pn−1​ are nonzero has xm=hx_m = hxm​=h for some m≤nm \le nm≤n.
  3. Theorem 5:1 (p. 414), in four items. For the cg-method:
    • (5:3a) (ri,rj)=0(r_i, r_j) = 0(ri​,rj​)=0 for i≠ji \ne ji=j;
    • (5:3b) (pi,Apj)=0(p_i, Ap_j) = 0(pi​,Apj​)=0 for i≠ji \ne ji=j;
    • (5:3c) (pi,rj)=0(p_i, r_j) = 0(pi​,rj​)=0 for i<ji < ji<j and (pi,rj)=∣ri∣2(p_i, r_j) = |r_i|^2(pi​,rj​)=∣ri​∣2 for i≥ji \ge ji≥j;
    • (5:3d) (ri,Api)=(pi,Api)(r_i, Ap_i) = (p_i, Ap_i)(ri​,Api​)=(pi​,Api​), and (ri,Apj)=0(r_i, Ap_j) = 0(ri​,Apj​)=0 for i≠j,j+1i \ne j, j + 1i=j,j+1.
  4. Theorem 5:5, eq. (5:10) (p. 416):
ai=∣ri∣2(pi,Api)=(pi,ri)(pi,Api)=(pi,r0)(pi,Api).a_i = \frac{|r_i|^2}{(p_i, Ap_i)} = \frac{(p_i, r_i)}{(p_i, Ap_i)} = \frac{(p_i, r_0)}{(p_i, Ap_i)}.ai​=(pi​,Api​)∣ri​∣2​=(pi​,Api​)(pi​,ri​)​=(pi​,Api​)(pi​,r0​)​.
  1. Theorem 5:2, first sentence (p. 415). The cg-method is a cd-method: its iterates satisfy IsCDRun.

Significance

Finite termination is the property that distinguishes the conjugate gradient method from stationary iterations such as Jacobi or Gauss–Seidel. It explains why the method can be used as a direct solver in exact arithmetic. It is the starting point for the later theory of Krylov subspace methods. The relations of Theorem 5:1 are the checks the paper recommends for monitoring a computation (eq. (3:3)). They are also the input to the paper's further results on the monotone decrease of the error (Section 6) and on the connection with orthogonal polynomials (Sections 14–18).

The result has been proved since 1952 and appears in every numerical linear algebra textbook. As far as a search of the Prove2Me catalog shows (September 2026), it has no machine-checked proof there. The only conjugate gradient material on the platform is a Hilbert-space convergence result for a different recurrence. This mission adds a faithful formal version of the original recursion (3:1) and of the cd-method. It also adds the complete termination argument, organized as in the paper. The definitions and the Theorem 5:1 relations are reusable by any later formalization of Krylov methods, including the second mission of this series on the decrease of the error ∣h−xi∣|h - x_i|∣h−xi​∣.

Difficulty

The obvious argument says that the residuals are mutually orthogonal, so at most nnn of them are nonzero. That argument is only as good as the orthogonality, and Theorem 5:1 must be established by a simultaneous induction over four families of relations. The recursion defines ri+1r_{i+1}ri+1​ by an update, not as k−Axi+1k - Ax_{i+1}k−Axi+1​, so even ri=k−Axir_i = k - Ax_iri​=k−Axi​ needs a proof. Orthogonality of ri+1r_{i+1}ri+1​ to the earlier residuals needs the conjugacy of the earlier directions, and conjugacy of pi+1p_{i+1}pi+1​ needs the orthogonality of the earlier residuals. Neither family can be proved first.

A second obstacle is the passage from orthogonality to termination. A cd-run with a zero direction stalls, so Theorem 4:2 needs the directions p0,…,pn−1p_0, \dots, p_{n-1}p0​,…,pn−1​ to be nonzero. The cg directions become zero exactly when the solution is reached, so applying Theorem 4:2 to cg needs a case split at the first vanishing residual.

Formalization scope

Vectors are Fin n → ℝ, the scalar product is dotProduct (⬝ᵥ), and AxAxAx is Matrix.mulVec (*ᵥ). The hypothesis on AAA is Mathlib's Matrix.PosDef, which includes symmetry. The solution enters only through the hypothesis A *ᵥ h = k. Indices are 0-based, as in the paper.

The cg iteration is total and has no stopping test. Once rm=0r_m = 0rm​=0, Lean's convention x/0=0x/0 = 0x/0=0 gives pm=0p_m = 0pm​=0 and am=0a_m = 0am​=0. From then on the iteration stays at xmx_mxm​, with zero residuals and directions. For this reason the relations of Theorem 5:1 are stated for all indices without guards: after termination they hold trivially.

Two formulations would make the goal trivial, and neither is used. One is a stopping test or step that refers to hhh or to A−1kA^{-1}kA−1k. The other replaces (3:1b), (3:1d) or (3:1e) by the equivalent formulas (3:2a), (3:2b) or ri+1=k−Axi+1r_{i+1} = k - Ax_{i+1}ri+1​=k−Axi+1​, which would move Theorem 5:5 and part of Theorem 5:2 into the definition. The iteration is (3:1) literally.

The cd-method's implicit hypothesis, that the directions p0,…,pn−1p_0, \dots, p_{n-1}p0​,…,pn−1​ are nonzero, is an explicit binder of Theorem 4:2. Without it the statement fails (take p0=0p_0 = 0p0​=0). The hypothesis is satisfiable: the cg run with nonzero residuals is one example.

A complete development needs the standard facts that mutually conjugate nonzero vectors are linearly independent and that nnn independent vectors span Rn\mathbb{R}^nRn. It also needs the induction behind Theorem 5:1. Contributions welcome beyond the milestones include the converse half of Theorem 5:2, the relation (5:2) expressing pkp_kpk​ through r0,…,rkr_0, \dots, r_kr0​,…,rk​, and Theorem 4:5 (the cd-method computes A−1A^{-1}A−1).

Selected references

  • M. R. Hestenes and E. Stiefel, Methods of Conjugate Gradients for Solving Linear Systems, Journal of Research of the National Bureau of Standards 49(6), 409–436, 1952. https://doi.org/10.6028/jres.049.044
  • L. Fox, H. D. Huskey and J. H. Wilkinson, Notes on the solution of algebraic linear simultaneous equations, Quarterly Journal of Mechanics and Applied Mathematics 1(1), 149–173, 1948 (the cd-method from a different point of view; cited in the paper's Section 4 footnote). https://doi.org/10.1093/qjmam/1.1.149
  • G. H. Golub and C. F. Van Loan, Matrix Computations, 4th ed., Johns Hopkins University Press, 2013, §11.3 (textbook account of the method).
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Convex OptimizationMachine LearningOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Logarithmic Regret Algorithms for Online Convex Optimization 4: Logarithmic Regret of Exponentially Weighted Online OptimizationResearch Paper

Motivation

In online convex optimization a player repeatedly chooses a point xtx_txt​ from a convex set P⊆RnP \subseteq \mathbb{R}^nP⊆Rn, after which an adversary reveals a convex cost function ftf_tft​ and the player pays ft(xt)f_t(x_t)ft​(xt​). The player's regret after TTT rounds is its total cost minus the cost of the best fixed point in hindsight. The model covers online portfolio selection, online regression and prediction with expert advice, and it underlies the analysis of stochastic and adaptive optimization methods (Zinkevich 2003; Cesa-Bianchi and Lugosi 2006).

For general convex costs the best achievable regret is of order T\sqrt{T}T​. Hazan, Agarwal and Kale (Mach Learn 69, 2007) showed that a curvature condition, α\alphaα-exp-concavity, brings the regret down to order log⁡T\log TlogT, and gave several algorithms that achieve it. This mission concerns the simplest of them, Exponentially Weighted Online Optimization (EWOO), which needs nothing beyond exp-concavity: no bound on gradients and no bound on the diameter of PPP.

Timeline.

  • 1991: Cover's universal portfolio algorithm attains regret O(nlog⁡T)O(n \log T)O(nlogT) for online portfolio selection, whose log-loss is 111-exp-concave (Cover 1991).
  • 1997: Blum and Kalai give a short analysis of the universal portfolio with transaction costs, using a shrinking argument around the best portfolio (Blum and Kalai 1997/1999).
  • 2003: Kalai and Vempala give a polynomial-time randomized implementation of Cover's algorithm via random walks (JMLR 3, 2003).
  • 2007: Hazan, Agarwal and Kale state EWOO for general α\alphaα-exp-concave costs and prove the regret bound of Theorem 7, alongside the Online Newton Step and Follow the Approximate Leader.

Setting

Fix n≥0n \ge 0n≥0 and a set P⊆RnP \subseteq \mathbb{R}^nP⊆Rn that is nonempty, closed, bounded and convex, with positive Lebesgue volume vol(P)\mathrm{vol}(P)vol(P). Fix α>0\alpha > 0α>0. The cost functions are f1,f2,⋯:Rn→Rf_1, f_2, \dots : \mathbb{R}^n \to \mathbb{R}f1​,f2​,⋯:Rn→R, each continuous on PPP and α\alphaα-exp-concave on PPP: the function ht(x)=e−αft(x)h_t(x) = e^{-\alpha f_t(x)}ht​(x)=e−αft​(x) is concave on PPP (LogRegretOCO.EWOO.IsExpConcave).

EWOO keeps the weights

wt(x)=exp⁡(−α∑τ=1t−1fτ(x))=∏τ=1t−1hτ(x),w_t(x) = \exp\Bigl(-\alpha \sum_{\tau=1}^{t-1} f_\tau(x)\Bigr) = \prod_{\tau=1}^{t-1} h_\tau(x),wt​(x)=exp(−ατ=1∑t−1​fτ​(x))=τ=1∏t−1​hτ​(x),

and on round ttt plays the wtw_twt​-weighted mean of PPP,

xt=∫Px wt(x) dx∫Pwt(x) dxx_t = \frac{\int_P x\, w_t(x)\, dx}{\int_P w_t(x)\, dx}xt​=∫P​wt​(x)dx∫P​xwt​(x)dx​

(LogRegretOCO.EWOO.ewooPoint). In particular x1x_1x1​ is the centroid of PPP, and each xtx_txt​ depends only on f1,…,ft−1f_1, \dots, f_{t-1}f1​,…,ft−1​. The regret against a comparator u∈Pu \in Pu∈P is ∑t=1T(ft(xt)−ft(u))\sum_{t=1}^T \bigl(f_t(x_t) - f_t(u)\bigr)∑t=1T​(ft​(xt​)−ft​(u)).

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 7

For every T≥1T \ge 1T≥1 and every u∈Pu \in Pu∈P,

∑t=1Tft(xt)−∑t=1Tft(u)  ≤  1α n (1+log⁡(T+1)).\sum_{t=1}^{T} f_t(x_t) - \sum_{t=1}^{T} f_t(u) \;\le\; \frac{1}{\alpha}\, n\, \bigl(1 + \log(T+1)\bigr).t=1∑T​ft​(xt​)−t=1∑T​ft​(u)≤α1​n(1+log(T+1)).

This is the paper's printed constant. The paper's proof yields the slightly sharper 1α(1+nlog⁡(T+1))\frac{1}{\alpha}\bigl(1 + n\log(T+1)\bigr)α1​(1+nlog(T+1)); the printed form is the goal.

Milestones

The proof in §3.4 (p. 187) passes through five displays, each a milestone:

  1. Jensen for the weighted mean (first display on p. 187): ht(xt)≥∫Pht wt /∫Pwth_t(x_t) \ge \int_P h_t\, w_t \,/ \int_P w_tht​(xt​)≥∫P​ht​wt​/∫P​wt​.
  2. Eq. (18): ∏τ=1thτ(xτ)≥∫P∏τ=1thτ / vol(P)\prod_{\tau=1}^t h_\tau(x_\tau) \ge \int_P \prod_{\tau=1}^t h_\tau \,/\, \mathrm{vol}(P)∏τ=1t​hτ​(xτ​)≥∫P​∏τ=1t​hτ​/vol(P).
  3. The nearby set S={TT+1x∗+1T+1y:y∈P}S = \{\frac{T}{T+1}x^* + \frac{1}{T+1}y : y \in P\}S={T+1T​x∗+T+11​y:y∈P}: for x∈Sx \in Sx∈S, ht(x)≥TT+1ht(x∗)h_t(x) \ge \frac{T}{T+1}h_t(x^*)ht​(x)≥T+1T​ht​(x∗) and ∏τ=1Thτ(x)≥1e∏τ=1Thτ(x∗)\prod_{\tau=1}^T h_\tau(x) \ge \frac1e \prod_{\tau=1}^T h_\tau(x^*)∏τ=1T​hτ​(x)≥e1​∏τ=1T​hτ​(x∗).
  4. Volume of SSS: vol(S)=vol(P)/(T+1)n\mathrm{vol}(S) = \mathrm{vol}(P)/(T+1)^nvol(S)=vol(P)/(T+1)n.
  5. Multiplicative regret bound (last display on p. 187): ∏τ=1Thτ(xτ)≥1e(T+1)n∏τ=1Thτ(x∗)\prod_{\tau=1}^T h_\tau(x_\tau) \ge \frac{1}{e(T+1)^n}\prod_{\tau=1}^T h_\tau(x^*)∏τ=1T​hτ​(xτ​)≥e(T+1)n1​∏τ=1T​hτ​(x∗).

Significance

The result. Theorem 7 shows that exp-concavity alone suffices for logarithmic regret, with a constant n/αn/\alphan/α that does not depend on the size of PPP or on the gradients of the costs. Specialised to the log-loss ft(x)=−log⁡(rt⊤x)f_t(x) = -\log(r_t^\top x)ft​(x)=−log(rt⊤​x) on the simplex, where α=1\alpha = 1α=1, it recovers the O(nlog⁡T)O(n\log T)O(nlogT) regret of Cover's universal portfolio. The bound is the benchmark against which the computationally cheaper second-order methods of the same paper (Online Newton Step, Follow the Approximate Leader) are compared: those need a gradient bound GGG and diameter DDD and pay a factor (1/α+GD)(1/\alpha + GD)(1/α+GD).

Formalizing it. The theorem is proved in the paper, and a textbook version with a different constant, (n/α)log⁡T+2/α(n/\alpha)\log T + 2/\alpha(n/α)logT+2/α, appears in Hazan's Introduction to Online Convex Optimization (Theorem 4.4). No machine-checked proof of either is known. The work here is to formalize the paper's proof: Jensen's inequality for a weighted Lebesgue average in Rn\mathbb{R}^nRn, the change of volume under homothety, and the elementary inequality (1+1/T)T≤e(1 + 1/T)^T \le e(1+1/T)T≤e. A companion draft of the textbook version exists on the platform as a private item (OnlineConvexOpt.SecondOrder.ewoo_regret) with another constant; it is not reused.

Difficulty

The pieces are classical, but they have to be assembled in measure-theoretic form. The point xtx_txt​ is a Bochner integral of a vector-valued function over PPP, and its membership in PPP and the Jensen inequality both require the normalised weight wt dx/∫Pwtw_t\,dx/\int_P w_twt​dx/∫P​wt​ to be a genuine probability measure on PPP, with every integrand integrable. The obvious one-dimensional intuition — "the weighted mean of a convex set lies in the set" — hides the requirement that PPP be closed and have positive volume.

The second obstacle is that Eq. (18) compares the algorithm with an average of the product ∏hτ\prod h_\tau∏hτ​ over all of PPP, while the regret compares it with a single point. The natural attempt, bounding the average below by the value at the comparator, fails: the average can be far smaller than the maximum, and a lower bound that loses more than a factor polynomial in TTT destroys the logarithmic rate. Controlling this loss in nnn dimensions, with a constant independent of the shape and size of PPP, is the heart of the argument.

Formalization scope

Points live in EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin n) with its Lebesgue (Haar) measure volume. Rounds are numbered from 111: the weights sum over Finset.Ico 1 t, the regret over Finset.Icc 1 T. Cost functions are defined on all of Rn\mathbb{R}^nRn; only their values on PPP enter. The algorithm is the total function ewooPoint P α f t, and the goal is stated for xtx_txt​ equal to it — not for an arbitrary sequence satisfying a Jensen-type inequality.

Conventions and corrections relative to the printed text:

  • Regret against every comparator. The regret is stated as ∑t(ft(xt)−ft(u))≤\sum_t (f_t(x_t) - f_t(u)) \le∑t​(ft​(xt​)−ft​(u))≤ bound for every u∈Pu \in Pu∈P, never through a real-valued ⨅ or sInf over PPP, which in Lean would return a junk value off its intended domain and trivialize the statement.
  • Positive volume volume P ≠ 0 is added: the algorithm divides by ∫Pwt\int_P w_t∫P​wt​, which the paper leaves implicit. Without it Lean's convention 0−1=00^{-1} = 00−1=0 would set xt=0x_t = 0xt​=0.
  • Continuity of each ftf_tft​ on PPP is the paper's standing assumption (§2.2: costs twice differentiable and convex) weakened to what the argument uses; it makes every integral in the development an integral of an integrable function.
  • Typos. Theorem 7's "ft:P→Rnf_t : P \to \mathbb{R}^nft​:P→Rn" is read as real-valued, and its "exp⁡(−αf(x))\exp(-\alpha f(x))exp(−αf(x))" as exp⁡(−αft(x))\exp(-\alpha f_t(x))exp(−αft​(x)). The set-builder "S={x∈S∣… }S = \{x \in S \mid \dots\}S={x∈S∣…}" defines SSS in terms of itself and is read as the set of all TT+1x∗+1T+1y\frac{T}{T+1}x^* + \frac{1}{T+1}yT+1T​x∗+T+11​y, y∈Py \in Py∈P; the printed "S=x∗+1T+1PS = x^* + \frac{1}{T+1}PS=x∗+T+11​P" is a translate of that set with the same volume.
  • Comparator. The paper's x∗x^*x∗ is a minimizer of ∑tft\sum_t f_t∑t​ft​; milestones 3 and 5 are stated for every x∗∈Px^* \in Px∗∈P, which implies the minimizer case.
  • Constant. The printed 1αn(1+log⁡(T+1))\frac{1}{\alpha}n(1+\log(T+1))α1​n(1+log(T+1)) is stated, although the proof gives the sharper 1α(1+nlog⁡(T+1))\frac{1}{\alpha}(1 + n\log(T+1))α1​(1+nlog(T+1)).
  • Not in scope. The randomized variant (sampling xtx_txt​ with density proportional to wtw_twt​, "in expectation") and the running-time discussion of §3.4.1 have no separate proof in the paper.

Infrastructure that a complete development needs, and that is reusable beyond this mission: Jensen's inequality for concave functions under a probability measure with a continuous density on a compact convex set (Mathlib has ConcaveOn.le_map_integral and Convex.integral_mem); the scaling identity for Haar measure (MeasureTheory.Measure.addHaar_smul); and the elementary bound (T/(T+1))T≥1/e(T/(T+1))^T \ge 1/e(T/(T+1))T≥1/e. Proofs of any milestone, and a general weighted-Jensen lemma usable across the milestones, are welcome.

Selected references

  • E. Hazan, A. Agarwal, S. Kale, Logarithmic regret algorithms for online convex optimization, Machine Learning 69 (2007), 169–192. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10994-007-5016-8
  • T. M. Cover, Universal portfolios, Mathematical Finance 1 (1991), 1–29. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9965.1991.tb00002.x
  • A. Blum, A. Kalai, Universal portfolios with and without transaction costs, Machine Learning 35 (1999), 193–205 (COLT 1997). https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1007530728748
  • A. Kalai, S. Vempala, Efficient algorithms for universal portfolios, Journal of Machine Learning Research 3 (2003), 423–440. https://www.jmlr.org/papers/v3/kalai02a.html
  • M. Zinkevich, Online convex programming and generalized infinitesimal gradient ascent, ICML 2003. https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.5555/3041838.3041955
  • E. Hazan, Introduction to Online Convex Optimization, 2nd ed., MIT Press 2022; arXiv:1909.05207, Theorem 4.4. https://arxiv.org/abs/1909.05207
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Convex OptimizationMachine LearningOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Logarithmic Regret Algorithms for Online Convex Optimization 3: Logarithmic Regret of Follow the Approximate LeaderResearch Paper

Motivation

Online convex optimization models repeated decision making against an adversary: in each round a player chooses a point of a convex set, and only then learns the convex cost of that round. It covers online portfolio selection, online regression and routing, and it is the standard lens for analysing learning algorithms that must commit before seeing data. The figure of merit is regret, the player's total cost minus the cost of the best fixed decision in hindsight. For general convex costs regret Θ(T)\Theta(\sqrt T)Θ(T​) over TTT rounds is optimal; for costs with curvature it can be logarithmic.

Hazan, Agarwal and Kale (Mach Learn 69 (2007) 169–192) gave several algorithms with O(log⁡T)O(\log T)O(logT) regret for α\alphaα-exp-concave costs, the class that contains the log-loss of portfolio selection. This mission formalizes one of them, Follow the Approximate Leader (FTAL). It connects to the oldest online algorithm, Follow the Leader (FTL), which plays the minimiser of all past costs: FTAL is FTL run on quadratic lower models of the costs, and the paper's analysis shows that FTL itself has logarithmic regret on a class of curved costs.

Timeline. Zinkevich (2003) proved O(T)O(\sqrt T)O(T​) regret for online gradient descent on convex costs. Cover (1991) gave a universal portfolio with logarithmic regret for the log-loss, at a running time exponential in the dimension. Kalai and Vempala (2005) analysed perturbed Follow the Leader through the "be the leader" argument. Hazan, Agarwal and Kale (2007) gave efficient algorithms (Online Newton Step, FTAL, EWOO) with O(nlog⁡T)O(n \log T)O(nlogT) regret for exp-concave costs.

Setting

The decision set P⊆RnP \subseteq \mathbb{R}^nP⊆Rn is nonempty, convex, closed and bounded, and DDD bounds its diameter: ∥y−z∥2≤D\|y - z\|_2 \le D∥y−z∥2​≤D for y,z∈Py, z \in Py,z∈P. In rounds t=1,2,…t = 1, 2, \dotst=1,2,… the player picks xt∈Px_t \in Pxt​∈P and then pays ft(xt)f_t(x_t)ft​(xt​), where ftf_tft​ is a cost function differentiable at the points of PPP with gradient norm ∥∇ft(x)∥≤G\|\nabla f_t(x)\| \le G∥∇ft​(x)∥≤G on PPP. The cost ftf_tft​ is α\alphaα-exp-concave (α>0\alpha > 0α>0) if x↦exp⁡(−αft(x))x \mapsto \exp(-\alpha f_t(x))x↦exp(−αft​(x)) is concave on PPP. The regret over TTT rounds against a comparator u∈Pu \in Pu∈P is ∑t=1T(ft(xt)−ft(u))\sum_{t=1}^T \bigl(f_t(x_t) - f_t(u)\bigr)∑t=1T​(ft​(xt​)−ft​(u)).

Follow the Leader plays xt∈arg⁡min⁡x∈P∑τ=1t−1fτ(x)x_t \in \arg\min_{x \in P} \sum_{\tau=1}^{t-1} f_\tau(x)xt​∈argminx∈P​∑τ=1t−1​fτ​(x) (any point of PPP in round 1). Follow the Approximate Leader (version 1 of the paper's Fig. 3) with parameter β\betaβ plays FTL on the approximate costs

f~τ(x)=fτ(xτ)+∇τ⊤(x−xτ)+β2(x−xτ)⊤∇τ∇τ⊤(x−xτ),∇τ=∇fτ(xτ).\tilde f_\tau(x) = f_\tau(x_\tau) + \nabla_\tau^\top(x - x_\tau) + \frac{\beta}{2}(x - x_\tau)^\top \nabla_\tau\nabla_\tau^\top (x - x_\tau), \qquad \nabla_\tau = \nabla f_\tau(x_\tau).f~​τ​(x)=fτ​(xτ​)+∇τ⊤​(x−xτ​)+2β​(x−xτ​)⊤∇τ​∇τ⊤​(x−xτ​),∇τ​=∇fτ​(xτ​).

In the Lean development these are IsFTLRun P f x and IsFTALRun P β f x, predicates on a whole trajectory xxx.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 6

With β=12min⁡{1/(4GD),α}\beta = \tfrac12 \min\{1/(4GD), \alpha\}β=21​min{1/(4GD),α}, every FTAL run on α\alphaα-exp-concave costs satisfies, for every T≥1T \ge 1T≥1 and u∈Pu \in Pu∈P,

∑t=1T(ft(xt)−ft(u))≤64(1α+GD)n (log⁡T+1).\sum_{t=1}^T \bigl(f_t(x_t) - f_t(u)\bigr) \le 64\left(\frac1\alpha + GD\right) n\,(\log T + 1).t=1∑T​(ft​(xt​)−ft​(u))≤64(α1​+GD)n(logT+1).

This is the paper's statement with its constant, stated for the algorithm as defined, and for every adversarial sequence of costs.

Milestones

  1. Lemma 3: an α\alphaα-exp-concave cost with gradients bounded by GGG lies above the paraboloid f(y)+∇f(y)⊤(x−y)+β2(∇f(y)⊤(x−y))2f(y) + \nabla f(y)^\top(x-y) + \frac\beta2 (\nabla f(y)^\top (x - y))^2f(y)+∇f(y)⊤(x−y)+2β​(∇f(y)⊤(x−y))2 on PPP.
  2. Lemma 9: regret on lower surrogates that touch the costs at the played points dominates the true regret.
  3. Lemma 10: ∑tft(xt+1)≤∑tft(u)\sum_t f_t(x_{t+1}) \le \sum_t f_t(u)∑t​ft​(xt+1​)≤∑t​ft​(u) for an FTL run ("be the leader").
  4. Lemma 12: A−1∙(A−B)≤log⁡(∣A∣/∣B∣)A^{-1} \bullet (A - B) \le \log(|A|/|B|)A−1∙(A−B)≤log(∣A∣/∣B∣) for A⪰B≻0A \succeq B \succ 0A⪰B≻0.
  5. Lemma 11: ∑t=1Tut⊤Vt−1ut≤nlog⁡(r2T/ε+1)\sum_{t=1}^T u_t^\top V_t^{-1} u_t \le n\log(r^2T/\varepsilon + 1)∑t=1T​ut⊤​Vt−1​ut​≤nlog(r2T/ε+1) with Vt=∑τ≤tuτuτ⊤+εIV_t = \sum_{\tau \le t} u_\tau u_\tau^\top + \varepsilon IVt​=∑τ≤t​uτ​uτ⊤​+εI.
  6. Theorem 5 (corrected constant): FTL on costs gt(vt⊤x)g_t(v_t^\top x)gt​(vt⊤​x) with ∥vt∥≤R\|v_t\| \le R∥vt​∥≤R, ∣gt′∣≤b|g_t'| \le b∣gt′​∣≤b, gt′′≥ag_t'' \ge agt′′​≥a has regret at most nb2alog⁡(a2D2R2T2b2+1)+b2a\frac{nb^2}{a}\log\bigl(\frac{a^2D^2R^2T^2}{b^2} + 1\bigr) + \frac{b^2}{a}anb2​log(b2a2D2R2T2​+1)+ab2​.

Significance

Theorem 6 shows that a simple rule, re-solving a convex quadratic program over all past linearized costs, achieves O(nlog⁡T)O(n\log T)O(nlogT) regret on exp-concave costs, matching the Online Newton Step up to constants. Theorem 5 is of independent interest: it shows that unmodified Follow the Leader, which has linear regret on linear costs, has logarithmic regret whenever each cost is a strongly curved function of one linear form. Portfolio selection is such a case. The appendix lemmas (log-determinant potential, elliptical potential) are standard tools reused throughout the bandit and online-learning literature.

On formalization: the results are proved on paper; none is formalized. The Lean development provides a reusable encoding of Follow the Leader as a trajectory predicate, the "be the leader" reduction, the surrogate reduction for regret, and the matrix potential inequalities, which the Online Newton Step analysis also needs. The paper's printed statements of Theorem 5 and Lemma 10 contain errors (see below); this mission states corrected versions that suffice for the goal.

Difficulty

The obvious attempt, bounding each term ft(xt)−ft(xt+1)f_t(x_t) - f_t(x_{t+1})ft​(xt​)−ft​(xt+1​) by how far the leader moves, requires knowing how far the minimiser of a constrained problem moves when one cost is added. For unconstrained strongly convex quadratics this is an explicit Newton step, but here the minimiser lies in a general convex set and each cost contributes curvature in only one direction, so the accumulated curvature can be singular for many rounds and no per-round strong convexity is available. Turning the per-round movement into a sum that grows only like log⁡T\log TlogT, with the paper's explicit constant, is the core of the work; the printed Theorem 5 bound is negative for small TTT, so the constants must be tracked exactly rather than asymptotically.

Formalization scope

Points are in EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin n) so that ∥⋅∥\|\cdot\|∥⋅∥ is the Euclidean norm; cost functions are functions on all of Rn\mathbb{R}^nRn, differentiable at the points of PPP, with Mathlib's gradient. Rounds are 111-based; x0x_0x0​ and f0f_0f0​ are unused. DDD is any upper bound on pairwise distances in PPP. Exp-concavity is ConcaveOn ℝ P (fun x => Real.exp (-α * f t x)). Algorithms are predicates on the trajectory, required at every round, so every tie-breaking rule is covered and adaptive adversaries are included.

Regret is always stated against every comparator u∈Pu \in Pu∈P. A formalization with a real-valued ⨅/sInf over PPP, or one that bounds the regret of an arbitrary sequence of points rather than of an FTAL run with the paper's β\betaβ, would be trivial or false, and is excluded: the goal carries IsFTALRun with β=12min⁡{1/(4GD),α}\beta = \frac12\min\{1/(4GD),\alpha\}β=21​min{1/(4GD),α}.

Corrections and conventions relative to the printed paper:

  • Theorem 5: the printed bound 2nb2a[log⁡(DRaT/b)+1]\frac{2nb^2}{a}[\log(DRaT/b) + 1]a2nb2​[log(DRaT/b)+1] is false when DRaT/b<1/eDRaT/b < 1/eDRaT/b<1/e. The milestone states the bound the paper's proof gives, nb2alog⁡(a2D2R2T2b2+1)+b2a\frac{nb^2}{a}\log(\frac{a^2D^2R^2T^2}{b^2} + 1) + \frac{b^2}{a}anb2​log(b2a2D2R2T2​+1)+ab2​, which implies the printed one when DRaT≥bDRaT \ge bDRaT≥b. Derivatives are deriv with explicit differentiability at the points vt⊤xv_t^\top xvt⊤​x, x∈Px \in Px∈P.
  • Lemma 10: printed with xt=arg⁡min⁡∑τ=1tfτx_t = \arg\min \sum_{\tau=1}^{t} f_\tauxt​=argmin∑τ=1t​fτ​, under which it is false at T=1T = 1T=1; the proof and its use require the FTL index ∑τ=1t−1\sum_{\tau=1}^{t-1}∑τ=1t−1​, which is stated.
  • Lemma 11: the typo ∑τutut⊤\sum_\tau u_t u_t^\top∑τ​ut​ut⊤​ is read as ∑τuτuτ⊤\sum_\tau u_\tau u_\tau^\top∑τ​uτ​uτ⊤​, and ε>0\varepsilon > 0ε>0 is stated.
  • Lemma 3: β>0\beta > 0β>0 is added (the proof divides by β\betaβ), and G,D>0G, D > 0G,D>0 so that 1/(4GD)1/(4GD)1/(4GD) is meaningful.
  • Theorem 6: "ft:P→Rnf_t : P \to \mathbb{R}^nft​:P→Rn" is read as R\mathbb{R}R-valued; only first-order differentiability is assumed; G,D>0G, D > 0G,D>0. The theorem is true as printed, although the paper's route through the printed Theorem 5 is invalid for T<16T < 16T<16.
  • Only version 1 of FTAL is formalized; Lemma 4 (equivalence with the pseudoinverse form) is out of scope.

Needed infrastructure: first-order optimality for convex minimisation over a convex set, a mean-value theorem along segments, determinants and eigenvalues of symmetric positive definite matrices (Mathlib has most of this), and the matrix inequality ∣A∣≤(tr⁡A/n)n|A| \le (\operatorname{tr} A/n)^n∣A∣≤(trA/n)n. Contributions welcome: proofs of any milestone, and a proof of the goal from the milestones.

Selected references

  • E. Hazan, A. Agarwal, S. Kale, Logarithmic regret algorithms for online convex optimization, Machine Learning 69 (2007), 169–192. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10994-007-5016-8
  • M. Zinkevich, Online convex programming and generalized infinitesimal gradient ascent, ICML 2003. https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.5555/3041838.3041955
  • T. M. Cover, Universal portfolios, Mathematical Finance 1 (1991), 1–29. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9965.1991.tb00002.x
  • A. Kalai, S. Vempala, Efficient algorithms for online decision problems, J. Comput. System Sci. 71 (2005), 291–307. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcss.2004.10.016
  • E. Hazan, Introduction to Online Convex Optimization, Foundations and Trends in Optimization 2 (2016). https://arxiv.org/abs/1909.05207
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Convex OptimizationMachine LearningOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Logarithmic Regret Algorithms for Online Convex Optimization 2: Logarithmic Regret of the Online Newton StepResearch Paper

Motivation

Online convex optimization models repeated decision making against an unknown, possibly adversarial environment: in each round t=1,…,Tt=1,\dots,Tt=1,…,T a player picks a point xtx_txt​ of a convex set P⊆Rn\mathcal P\subseteq\mathbb R^nP⊆Rn, and only then learns a convex cost function ftf_tft​ and pays ft(xt)f_t(x_t)ft​(xt​). Performance is measured by regret, the excess of the total cost over that of the best fixed point in hindsight. Zinkevich (ICML 2003) showed that online gradient descent has regret O(T)O(\sqrt T)O(T​) for arbitrary convex costs with bounded gradients, and this rate cannot be improved in general.

Many costs met in practice have more curvature than bare convexity. The log-loss f(x)=−log⁡(x⊤a)f(x)=-\log(x^\top a)f(x)=−log(x⊤a) of universal portfolio management (Cover, Math. Finance 1991) is not strongly convex, but it is exp-concave. Hazan, Agarwal and Kale (Mach Learn 69, 2007) gave the first efficient algorithms with regret logarithmic in TTT for exp-concave costs. This mission formalizes the second of their algorithms, the Online Newton Step (ONS), and its regret bound (Theorem 2 of the paper). ONS is the basis of later second-order online methods and appears as a standard algorithm in textbooks on online learning.

Timeline:

  • 2003 — Zinkevich: O(T)O(\sqrt T)O(T​) regret for general convex costs by online gradient descent.
  • 2006–2007 — Hazan, Agarwal, Kale (COLT 2006; Mach Learn 2007): O(log⁡T)O(\log T)O(logT) regret for strongly convex costs by gradient descent, and O(nlog⁡T)O(n\log T)O(nlogT) regret for exp-concave costs by ONS, Follow the Approximate Leader, and exponentially weighted online optimization.
  • 2016 — Hazan, Introduction to Online Convex Optimization (Found. Trends Optim., arXiv:1909.05207): textbook treatment of ONS with modified parameters.

Setting

The decision set P⊆Rn\mathcal P\subseteq\mathbb R^nP⊆Rn is nonempty, closed, bounded and convex, and DDD bounds its diameter: ∥x−y∥≤D\|x-y\|\le D∥x−y∥≤D for all x,y∈Px,y\in\mathcal Px,y∈P, with the Euclidean norm. The costs f1,f2,…f_1,f_2,\dotsf1​,f2​,… are real functions, differentiable at every point of P\mathcal PP, with gradient bound ∥∇ft(x)∥≤G\|\nabla f_t(x)\|\le G∥∇ft​(x)∥≤G on P\mathcal PP. A cost is α\alphaα-exp-concave (α>0\alpha>0α>0) if x↦exp⁡(−αft(x))x\mapsto\exp(-\alpha f_t(x))x↦exp(−αft​(x)) is concave on P\mathcal PP.

For a matrix AAA, the generalized projection ΠPA(y)\Pi^A_{\mathcal P}(y)ΠPA​(y) is a point of P\mathcal PP minimising (y−x)⊤A(y−x)(y-x)^\top A(y-x)(y−x)⊤A(y−x) over x∈Px\in\mathcal Px∈P.

The Online Newton Step fixes

β=12min⁡{14GD,α},ε=1β2D2,\beta=\tfrac12\min\Big\{\frac1{4GD},\alpha\Big\},\qquad \varepsilon=\frac1{\beta^2D^2},β=21​min{4GD1​,α},ε=β2D21​,

writes ∇t=∇ft(xt)\nabla_t=\nabla f_t(x_t)∇t​=∇ft​(xt​) and At=∑i=1t∇i∇i⊤+εInA_t=\sum_{i=1}^t\nabla_i\nabla_i^\top+\varepsilon I_nAt​=∑i=1t​∇i​∇i⊤​+εIn​, plays an arbitrary x1∈Px_1\in\mathcal Px1​∈P, and then

xt+1=ΠPAt(xt−1βAt−1∇t).x_{t+1}=\Pi^{A_t}_{\mathcal P}\Big(x_t-\frac1\beta A_t^{-1}\nabla_t\Big).xt+1​=ΠPAt​​(xt​−β1​At−1​∇t​).

The regret after TTT rounds against a comparator u∈Pu\in\mathcal Pu∈P is ∑t=1T(ft(xt)−ft(u))\sum_{t=1}^T\big(f_t(x_t)-f_t(u)\big)∑t=1T​(ft​(xt​)−ft​(u)); the paper's regret is its maximum over u∈Pu\in\mathcal Pu∈P.

In Lean the objects are LogRegretOCO.ONS.onsBeta, onsEps, onsMatrix, IsGenProj and IsONSRun, with the regularised Gram matrix regGram and the quadratic form quadForm.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 2 with nlog⁡T≥4n\log T\ge4nlogT≥4

For every run of ONS, every horizon TTT with nlog⁡T≥4n\log T\ge 4nlogT≥4, and every u∈Pu\in\mathcal Pu∈P,

∑t=1T(ft(xt)−ft(u))≤5(1α+GD) nlog⁡T.\sum_{t=1}^T\big(f_t(x_t)-f_t(u)\big)\le 5\Big(\frac1\alpha+GD\Big)\,n\log T.t=1∑T​(ft​(xt​)−ft​(u))≤5(α1​+GD)nlogT.

The added condition nlog⁡T≥4n\log T\ge4nlogT≥4 is what makes the printed constant correct (see Formalization scope).

Milestones

  1. Lemma 3 (p. 177): for 0<β≤12min⁡{1/(4GD),α}0<\beta\le\frac12\min\{1/(4GD),\alpha\}0<β≤21​min{1/(4GD),α} and x,y∈Px,y\in\mathcal Px,y∈P,
f(x)≥f(y)+∇f(y)⊤(x−y)+β2(∇f(y)⊤(x−y))2.f(x)\ge f(y)+\nabla f(y)^\top(x-y)+\tfrac\beta2\big(\nabla f(y)^\top(x-y)\big)^2 .f(x)≥f(y)+∇f(y)⊤(x−y)+2β​(∇f(y)⊤(x−y))2.
  1. Lemma 8 (p. 188): for convex P\mathcal PP, A⪰0A\succeq0A⪰0, z=ΠPA(y)z=\Pi^A_{\mathcal P}(y)z=ΠPA​(y) and a∈Pa\in\mathcal Pa∈P: (y−a)⊤A(y−a)≥(z−a)⊤A(z−a)(y-a)^\top A(y-a)\ge(z-a)^\top A(z-a)(y−a)⊤A(y−a)≥(z−a)⊤A(z−a).
  2. The display on p. 178: for every run of ONS and u∈Pu\in\mathcal Pu∈P,
∑t=1T(ft(xt)−ft(u))≤12β∑t=1T∇t⊤At−1∇t+12β.\sum_{t=1}^T\big(f_t(x_t)-f_t(u)\big)\le\frac1{2\beta}\sum_{t=1}^T\nabla_t^\top A_t^{-1}\nabla_t+\frac1{2\beta}.t=1∑T​(ft​(xt​)−ft​(u))≤2β1​t=1∑T​∇t⊤​At−1​∇t​+2β1​.
  1. Lemma 12 (p. 191): for A⪰B≻0A\succeq B\succ0A⪰B≻0, A−1∙(A−B)≤log⁡(∣A∣/∣B∣)A^{-1}\bullet(A-B)\le\log(|A|/|B|)A−1∙(A−B)≤log(∣A∣/∣B∣).
  2. Lemma 11 (p. 190): if ∥ut∥≤r\|u_t\|\le r∥ut​∥≤r, ε>0\varepsilon>0ε>0 and Vt=∑τ≤tuτuτ⊤+εInV_t=\sum_{\tau\le t}u_\tau u_\tau^\top+\varepsilon I_nVt​=∑τ≤t​uτ​uτ⊤​+εIn​, then ∑t=1Tut⊤Vt−1ut≤nlog⁡(r2T/ε+1)\sum_{t=1}^Tu_t^\top V_t^{-1}u_t\le n\log(r^2T/\varepsilon+1)∑t=1T​ut⊤​Vt−1​ut​≤nlog(r2T/ε+1).

Significance

Theorem 2 shows that exp-concavity alone, without strong convexity, suffices for regret logarithmic in TTT, at a per-round cost of one rank-one matrix update and one generalized projection. Its consequences include logarithmic regret for universal portfolio selection with a polynomial-time algorithm, and, by online-to-batch conversion, fast rates for stochastic exp-concave optimization. Lemma 11 (the elliptical potential bound) is used well beyond this paper, in linear bandits and online regression.

The result has been proved on paper since 2007. The remaining work is its machine-checked proof: the potential argument, the log-determinant inequality and the generalized-projection inequality for positive semidefinite matrices. As far as is known, none of these results is formalized in Mathlib. Prove2Me holds a related elliptical potential lemma for linear bandits (BanditAlgorithm.elliptical_potential_lemma, with Vt−1V_{t-1}Vt−1​ and a min⁡(1,⋅)\min(1,\cdot)min(1,⋅), a different statement) and the Euclidean case A=IA=IA=I of Lemma 8 (UnderstandingML.projection_lemma). The textbook version of ONS (OnlineConvexOpt.SecondOrder.online_newton_step_regret, with γ=12min⁡{1/(GD),α}\gamma=\frac12\min\{1/(GD),\alpha\}γ=21​min{1/(GD),α} and bound 2(1/α+GD)nlog⁡T2(1/\alpha+GD)n\log T2(1/α+GD)nlogT) is an open private draft with different parameters.

Difficulty

The obvious route to logarithmic regret, the gradient-descent argument of Theorem 1 with step sizes 1/(Ht)1/(Ht)1/(Ht), needs a uniform lower bound H>0H>0H>0 on the Hessians. Exp-concave costs such as the log-loss have no such bound: their curvature vanishes in directions orthogonal to the gradients seen so far. The analysis therefore has to track curvature only along the observed gradient directions. This requires a matrix-valued potential ∑t∇t⊤At−1∇t\sum_t\nabla_t^\top A_t^{-1}\nabla_t∑t​∇t⊤​At−1​∇t​ and a projection in the norm of AtA_tAt​ rather than the Euclidean norm. The Euclidean projection inequality does not transfer to this norm, which changes from round to round. Bounding the potential requires determinant inequalities for positive definite matrices. The analytic facts are elementary, but their Lean statements involve the interaction of EuclideanSpace, Matrix.mulVec, Matrix.inv and Matrix.det.

Formalization scope

Points live in EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin n), so all norms are Euclidean; matrices are Matrix (Fin n) (Fin n) ℝ acting on coordinate vectors. Rounds are 1-based: sums run over Finset.Icc 1 T and the index 000 is unused. Cost functions are ambient functions Rn→R\mathbb R^n\to\mathbb RRn→R, differentiable at the points of P\mathcal PP, with ∇ft\nabla f_t∇ft​ given by Mathlib's gradient. The paper's standing assumptions of convexity and twice differentiability are not needed and are omitted. DDD enters only as an upper bound on distances in P\mathcal PP. The generalized projection is a predicate that every minimiser satisfies, and ONS is the predicate IsONSRun on the whole trajectory, so the goal covers every tie-break and every adaptive adversary.

Corrections and added hypotheses:

  • Theorem 2 is false as printed at T=1T=1T=1. Take n=1n=1n=1, P=[−1,1]\mathcal P=[-1,1]P=[−1,1], f1(x)=x2f_1(x)=x^2f1​(x)=x2, α=12\alpha=\frac12α=21​, G=D=2G=D=2G=D=2 and x1=1x_1=1x1​=1: the regret is 111 and the bound is 000. The paper's proof gives 4(1/α+GD)(nlog⁡T+1)4(1/\alpha+GD)(n\log T+1)4(1/α+GD)(nlogT+1) for T≥2T\ge2T≥2; the final sentence drops the additive 1/(2β)1/(2\beta)1/(2β) of the p. 178 display. The goal adds nlog⁡T≥4n\log T\ge4nlogT≥4, under which the printed constant 555 follows.
  • G,D,α>0G,D,\alpha>0G,D,α>0 are assumed wherever β\betaβ or ε\varepsilonε appear: they are the non-degeneracy the formulas presuppose (in Lean, 1/0=01/0=01/0=0).
  • Lemma 3 adds 0<β0<\beta0<β; the proof divides by β\betaβ.
  • Lemma 11 adds ε>0\varepsilon>0ε>0 and reads the printed ∑τ=1tutut⊤\sum_{\tau=1}^tu_tu_t^\top∑τ=1t​ut​ut⊤​ as ∑τ=1tuτuτ⊤\sum_{\tau=1}^tu_\tau u_\tau^\top∑τ=1t​uτ​uτ⊤​.
  • Lemma 12's product ∙\bullet∙ is the entrywise inner product ∑i,jCijEij\sum_{i,j}C_{ij}E_{ij}∑i,j​Cij​Eij​, written out as a double sum.
  • The printed "ft:P→Rnf_t:\mathcal P\to\mathbb R^nft​:P→Rn" is read as ft:P→Rf_t:\mathcal P\to\mathbb Rft​:P→R, and "ΠSnAt\Pi^{A_t}_{S_n}ΠSn​At​​" on p. 177 as ΠPAt\Pi^{A_t}_{\mathcal P}ΠPAt​​.

Regret is stated against every comparator u∈Pu\in\mathcal Pu∈P, never as a real infimum ⨅ over P\mathcal PP, which is junk-valued in Lean on unbounded or empty sets. The goal is a statement about runs of the paper's algorithm with the paper's β\betaβ, ε\varepsilonε and AtA_tAt​. A bound for an arbitrary sequence satisfying the p. 178 display would be a milestone, not Theorem 2. The hypotheses are jointly satisfiable: the closed unit ball with ft(x)=∥x∥2/2f_t(x)=\|x\|^2/2ft​(x)=∥x∥2/2, α=1\alpha=1α=1, G=1G=1G=1, D=2D=2D=2 is a model.

A complete development needs: first-order conditions for concave functions on convex sets at boundary points; the optimality condition for minimising a convex quadratic over a convex set; spectral facts about symmetric positive definite matrices (square roots, eigenvalues, tr⁡\operatorname{tr}tr and det⁡\detdet); and the telescoping of log-determinants. Lemmas 8, 11 and 12 are reusable beyond this mission, in the sibling missions of this series (Follow the Approximate Leader) and in linear-bandit analyses. Proofs of any milestone are welcome, as are alternative proofs of Lemma 12 through concavity of log⁡det⁡\log\detlogdet.

Selected references

  • E. Hazan, A. Agarwal, S. Kale, Logarithmic regret algorithms for online convex optimization, Machine Learning 69 (2007), 169–192. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10994-007-5016-8
  • M. Zinkevich, Online convex programming and generalized infinitesimal gradient ascent, ICML 2003. https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.5555/3041838.3041955
  • T. M. Cover, Universal portfolios, Mathematical Finance 1 (1991), 1–29. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9965.1991.tb00002.x
  • E. Hazan, Introduction to Online Convex Optimization, Foundations and Trends in Optimization 2 (2016); 2nd ed. arXiv:1909.05207. https://arxiv.org/abs/1909.05207
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CombinatoricsOptimizationProbability+1·Captain: mikedeng1

Maximizing Non-Monotone Submodular Functions I: A Uniformly Random Set Achieves 1/4 of the Optimum, and 1/2 for Symmetric FunctionsResearch Paper

Motivation

Many combinatorial optimization problems ask for a subset of a finite ground set that maximizes a set function with diminishing returns: Max Cut and Max Directed Cut in graphs, facility location, maximum entropy sampling, and welfare problems in combinatorial auctions all fit this pattern. The common abstraction is the maximization of a submodular function, the discrete analogue of a concave function. Unlike the monotone case, where the objective only grows as elements are added, the non-monotone problem has no constraint at all and is still NP-hard, since Max Cut is a special case.

For Max Cut and Max Directed Cut, the simplest algorithm there is, putting every vertex on a side by an independent fair coin, already cuts half, respectively a quarter, of the optimum in expectation. Feige, Mirrokni and Vondrák (SIAM J. Comput. 40(4), 2011; extended abstract at FOCS 2007) showed that this is not a feature of cut functions: the same random choice achieves the same factors for every nonnegative submodular function, and for every symmetric one. This mission formalizes that result, Theorem 2.1 of the paper, together with the two sampling lemmas on which it rests. The paper's other results (a nonadaptive 1/3-approximation, deterministic and smoothed local search, and query lower bounds) are the subjects of companion missions in the same series.

Setting

Let XXX be a finite set with n=∣X∣n = |X|n=∣X∣ elements. A set function assigns a real number f(S)f(S)f(S) to every subset S⊆XS \subseteq XS⊆X. It is submodular if

f(S∪T)+f(S∩T)≤f(S)+f(T)for all S,T⊆X,f(S \cup T) + f(S \cap T) \le f(S) + f(T) \qquad \text{for all } S, T \subseteq X,f(S∪T)+f(S∩T)≤f(S)+f(T)for all S,T⊆X,

equivalently if the marginal value f(B∪{x})−f(B)f(B \cup \{x\}) - f(B)f(B∪{x})−f(B) of an element xxx does not increase as the set BBB grows. It is symmetric if f(X∖S)=f(S)f(X \setminus S) = f(S)f(X∖S)=f(S) for every S⊆XS \subseteq XS⊆X; the cut function of an undirected graph is the standard example. The optimum is

OPT=max⁡S⊆Xf(S).OPT = \max_{S \subseteq X} f(S).OPT=S⊆Xmax​f(S).

For p∈[0,1]p \in [0,1]p∈[0,1], X(p)X(p)X(p) denotes the random subset of XXX containing each element independently with probability ppp; similarly A(p)A(p)A(p) is the random subset of a fixed A⊆XA \subseteq XA⊆X. The Random Set Algorithm (RS) returns R=X(1/2)R = X(1/2)R=X(1/2), a uniformly random subset of XXX, without querying fff. Its expected value is the average of fff over all subsets,

E[f(R)]=F(12,…,12)=12n∑S⊆Xf(S),\mathbf{E}[f(R)] = F(\tfrac12, \dots, \tfrac12) = \frac{1}{2^n} \sum_{S \subseteq X} f(S),E[f(R)]=F(21​,…,21​)=2n1​S⊆X∑​f(S),

where F(x)=∑S⊆Xf(S)∏i∈Sxi∏i∉S(1−xi)F(x) = \sum_{S \subseteq X} f(S) \prod_{i \in S} x_i \prod_{i \notin S} (1 - x_i)F(x)=∑S⊆X​f(S)∏i∈S​xi​∏i∈/S​(1−xi​) is the multilinear extension of fff, the expectation of fff on a random set that includes element iii independently with probability xix_ixi​.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 2.1

For every nonnegative submodular f:2X→R+f : 2^X \to \mathbb{R}_+f:2X→R+​,

E[f(X(1/2))]≥14 OPT,\mathbf{E}[f(X(1/2))] \ge \tfrac14\, OPT,E[f(X(1/2))]≥41​OPT,

and if fff is in addition symmetric,

E[f(X(1/2))]≥12 OPT.\mathbf{E}[f(X(1/2))] \ge \tfrac12\, OPT.E[f(X(1/2))]≥21​OPT.

Both parts form the goal, stated as one theorem. The constants 14\tfrac1441​ and 12\tfrac1221​ are exact, not asymptotic, and they are tight: the directed cut of a single arc attains 14\tfrac1441​, and the cut of a single edge attains 12\tfrac1221​.

Milestones

  1. Lemma 2.2. For submodular g:2X→Rg : 2^X \to \mathbb{R}g:2X→R, A⊆XA \subseteq XA⊆X and p∈[0,1]p \in [0,1]p∈[0,1],
E[g(A(p))]≥(1−p) g(∅)+p g(A).\mathbf{E}[g(A(p))] \ge (1-p)\, g(\emptyset) + p\, g(A).E[g(A(p))]≥(1−p)g(∅)+pg(A).
  1. Lemma 2.3. For submodular f:2X→Rf : 2^X \to \mathbb{R}f:2X→R, sets A,B⊆XA, B \subseteq XA,B⊆X that need not be disjoint, independent samples A(p)A(p)A(p), B(q)B(q)B(q), and p,q∈[0,1]p, q \in [0,1]p,q∈[0,1],
E[f(A(p)∪B(q))]≥(1−p)(1−q)f(∅)+p(1−q)f(A)+(1−p)qf(B)+pqf(A∪B).\mathbf{E}[f(A(p) \cup B(q))] \ge (1-p)(1-q) f(\emptyset) + p(1-q) f(A) + (1-p)q f(B) + pq f(A \cup B).E[f(A(p)∪B(q))]≥(1−p)(1−q)f(∅)+p(1−q)f(A)+(1−p)qf(B)+pqf(A∪B).
  1. The display in the proof of Theorem 2.1. For submodular f:2X→Rf : 2^X \to \mathbb{R}f:2X→R and every S⊆XS \subseteq XS⊆X, with Sˉ=X∖S\bar S = X \setminus SSˉ=X∖S,
E[f(X(1/2))]≥14f(∅)+14f(S)+14f(Sˉ)+14f(X).\mathbf{E}[f(X(1/2))] \ge \tfrac14 f(\emptyset) + \tfrac14 f(S) + \tfrac14 f(\bar S) + \tfrac14 f(X).E[f(X(1/2))]≥41​f(∅)+41​f(S)+41​f(Sˉ)+41​f(X).

The milestones need no sign on the function; nonnegativity enters only in the goal.

Significance

The result. Theorem 2.1 gives an algorithm that makes no query at all and is still a constant-factor approximation for unconstrained non-monotone submodular maximization. It sets the baseline that every later algorithm for the problem is measured against: the paper's own nonadaptive 13\tfrac1331​-algorithm and its local search algorithms with factors 13\tfrac1331​ and 25\tfrac2552​, followed by later work culminating in the tight 12\tfrac1221​-approximation of Buchbinder, Feldman, Naor and Schwartz (FOCS 2012). The paper also shows that 14\tfrac1441​ is optimal among nonadaptive algorithms required to return one of the queried sets, and that 12\tfrac1221​ is optimal for symmetric functions among all algorithms using polynomially many value queries, so both factors of Theorem 2.1 have a precise place in the complexity landscape. Lemma 2.3, the probabilistic inequality behind it, is reused in the analyses of the nonadaptive algorithm and of smooth local search.

Formalizing it. The result is proved, with a short proof. What this mission adds is a machine-checked version of the random-set guarantee and of the two sampling lemmas, stated for arbitrary finite ground sets and, for the lemmas, for real-valued submodular functions without a sign. To our knowledge none of these statements has a machine-checked proof; Mathlib has no theory of submodular set functions or of their multilinear extension.

Difficulty

The goal itself is a two-line consequence of the third milestone. The work sits in the lemmas and in one change of viewpoint.

Lemma 2.2 is not a pointwise statement: the random set A(p)A(p)A(p) can be any subset of AAA, and ggg can be smaller on it than both g(∅)g(\emptyset)g(∅) and g(A)g(A)g(A). The inequality holds only in expectation, and only because submodularity controls the marginal value of each element uniformly across the sets it can be added to. Lemma 2.3 needs a conditioning argument over two independent samples; the sets AAA and BBB may overlap, and on A∩BA \cap BA∩B the union A(p)∪B(q)A(p) \cup B(q)A(p)∪B(q) contains an element with probability 1−(1−p)(1−q)1 - (1-p)(1-q)1−(1−p)(1−q), so it is not the product distribution with probability ppp on AAA and qqq on BBB. Finally, the third milestone requires identifying the uniform random subset X(1/2)X(1/2)X(1/2) with the union of independent half-samples of SSS and of its complement, as a statement about finite sums.

The obvious attempt at the goal, comparing f(R)f(R)f(R) with f(S∗)f(S^*)f(S∗) for an optimal S∗S^*S∗ set by set, fails: fff is not monotone, so a random set that contains most of S∗S^*S∗ may still have small value, and a random set can pick up elements that hurt.

Formalization scope

The ground set is a Lean type X with [Fintype X] [DecidableEq X]; subsets are Finset X and set functions are f : Finset X → ℝ. Submodularity is the lattice inequality of Definition 1.1, not the decreasing-marginals property. Nonnegativity, the paper's standing assumption f:2X→R+f : 2^X \to \mathbb{R}_+f:2X→R+​, is the hypothesis ∀ S, 0 ≤ f S; it appears only in the goal. Symmetry is ∀ S, f Sᶜ = f S for all subsets, not only for an optimal one. OPTOPTOPT is Finset.univ.sup' Finset.univ_nonempty f, a maximum over the always nonempty family of all subsets, so it is attained. The ground set may be empty; the goal holds there too and no nonemptiness is assumed.

Expectations are written as exact finite sums, not as integrals. E[f(X(1/2))]\mathbf{E}[f(X(1/2))]E[f(X(1/2))] is the multilinear extension F f (fun _ => 1/2). E[g(A(p))]\mathbf{E}[g(A(p))]E[g(A(p))] is ∑T⊆Ap∣T∣(1−p)∣A∖T∣g(T)\sum_{T \subseteq A} p^{|T|}(1-p)^{|A \setminus T|} g(T)∑T⊆A​p∣T∣(1−p)∣A∖T∣g(T), and E[f(A(p)∪B(q))]\mathbf{E}[f(A(p) \cup B(q))]E[f(A(p)∪B(q))] is the double sum over independent samples S⊆AS \subseteq AS⊆A, T⊆BT \subseteq BT⊆B with the product of the two weights. The ranges 0≤p≤10 \le p \le 10≤p≤1 and 0≤q≤10 \le q \le 10≤q≤1, implied in the paper by the word "probability", are explicit hypotheses; Lemma 2.2 is false without them.

Trivializing formalizations are excluded: the weights are exactly those of the uniform distribution on all 2n2^n2n subsets, OPTOPTOPT is the true maximum rather than the value at one fixed set, and fff is required to be both nonnegative and submodular.

Reusable infrastructure produced by a complete development: the multilinear extension of a set function and its expression as an expectation, product-weight identities for independent sampling of subsets (including the decomposition of X(1/2)X(1/2)X(1/2) along a set and its complement), and Lemmas 2.2 and 2.3, which the companion missions on the nonadaptive algorithm and on smooth local search also need. Proofs of any milestone are welcome independently.

Selected references

  • U. Feige, V. S. Mirrokni, J. Vondrák, Maximizing Non-Monotone Submodular Functions, SIAM Journal on Computing 40(4):1133–1153, 2011. https://doi.org/10.1137/090779346
  • U. Feige, V. S. Mirrokni, J. Vondrák, Maximizing non-monotone submodular functions, Proceedings of the 48th IEEE Symposium on Foundations of Computer Science (FOCS), 2007, pp. 461–471. https://doi.org/10.1109/FOCS.2007.29
  • N. Buchbinder, M. Feldman, J. Naor, R. Schwartz, A Tight Linear Time (1/2)-Approximation for Unconstrained Submodular Maximization, SIAM Journal on Computing 44(5):1384–1402, 2015 (FOCS 2012). https://doi.org/10.1137/130929205
  • G. L. Nemhauser, L. A. Wolsey, M. L. Fisher, An analysis of approximations for maximizing submodular set functions — I, Mathematical Programming 14:265–294, 1978. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01588971
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Linear OptimizationOptimal Transport·Captain: mikedeng1

Scenario Reduction in Stochastic Programming: The Optimal Redistribution Rule and the Explicit Kantorovich Distance of a Reduced MeasureResearch Paper

Motivation

Stochastic programs are solved in practice on a finite set of scenarios: a discrete probability distribution P=∑i=1NpiδωiP=\sum_{i=1}^N p_i\delta_{\omega_i}P=∑i=1N​pi​δωi​​ that approximates the true distribution of the uncertain data. The size of the resulting deterministic problem grows with NNN, and for multistage models it grows very fast, so NNN is often reduced before solving. The question is which scenarios to delete and how to reweight the remaining ones so that the optimal value and solutions of the stochastic program change as little as possible.

Dupačová, Gröwe-Kuska and Römisch (Math. Program. Ser. A 95 (2003) 493–511) answered this with probability metrics. Stability results for stochastic programs bound the change of the optimal value by a Fortet–Mourier type distance, which is in turn bounded by a Kantorovich functional μ^c\hat\mu_cμ^​c​ (an optimal transport cost). Scenario reduction then becomes: find a measure QQQ supported on a subset of the scenarios with μ^c(P,Q)\hat\mu_c(P,Q)μ^​c​(P,Q) small. Section 3 of the paper solves the weight part of this problem in closed form. That result, together with the heuristics built on it (backward reduction and forward selection), became the standard scenario-reduction method, implemented for example in the GAMS tool SCENRED.

Setting

Let Ω\OmegaΩ be a set and c:Ω×Ω→R+c:\Omega\times\Omega\to\mathbb R_+c:Ω×Ω→R+​ a cost function with c(ω,ω~)=0c(\omega,\tilde\omega)=0c(ω,ω~)=0 if and only if ω=ω~\omega=\tilde\omegaω=ω~, and c(ω,ω~)=c(ω~,ω)c(\omega,\tilde\omega)=c(\tilde\omega,\omega)c(ω,ω~)=c(ω~,ω) (conditions (C1)–(C2), p. 498). The original distribution has scenarios ω1,…,ωN∈Ω\omega_1,\dots,\omega_N\in\Omegaω1​,…,ωN​∈Ω with weights pi>0p_i>0pi​>0 and ∑ipi=1\sum_i p_i=1∑i​pi​=1. Write cij=c(ωi,ωj)c_{ij}=c(\omega_i,\omega_j)cij​=c(ωi​,ωj​).

A set J⊂{1,…,N}J\subset\{1,\dots,N\}J⊂{1,…,N} of scenarios is deleted. The reduced measure is Q=∑j∉JqjδωjQ=\sum_{j\notin J}q_j\delta_{\omega_j}Q=∑j∈/J​qj​δωj​​ with reduced weights qj≥0q_j\ge0qj​≥0, ∑j∉Jqj=1\sum_{j\notin J}q_j=1∑j∈/J​qj​=1. A transport plan from PPP to QQQ is a nonnegative matrix (ηij)i≤N, j∉J(\eta_{ij})_{i\le N,\,j\notin J}(ηij​)i≤N,j∈/J​ with row sums ∑j∉Jηij=pi\sum_{j\notin J}\eta_{ij}=p_i∑j∈/J​ηij​=pi​ and column sums ∑iηij=qj\sum_i\eta_{ij}=q_j∑i​ηij​=qj​. The Kantorovich functional (10) is the value of this transportation problem,

D(J;q)=min⁡{∑i∑j∉Jcijηij: η a transport plan from P to Q},D(J;q)=\min\Big\{\sum_{i}\sum_{j\notin J}c_{ij}\eta_{ij}:\ \eta\ \text{a transport plan from }P\text{ to }Q\Big\},D(J;q)=min{i∑​j∈/J∑​cij​ηij​: η a transport plan from P to Q},

and DJ=min⁡{D(J;q):q reduced weights}D_J=\min\{D(J;q): q\ \text{reduced weights}\}DJ​=min{D(J;q):q reduced weights} is the best distance achievable once JJJ is fixed. The optimal deletion problem (13) asks for min⁡{DJ:#J=k}\min\{D_J:\#J=k\}min{DJ​:#J=k} for a given 1≤k<N1\le k<N1≤k<N.

In the Lean development these objects are IsReducedWeight, IsTransportPlan, transportCost, transportValue (D(J;q)D(J;q)D(J;q)), optWeightsValue (DJD_JDJ​) and optimalDeletionValue (the value of (13)), all in the namespace ScenarioReduction.Redistribution.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 2 (optimal weights), p. 500

For every J≠{1,…,N}J\neq\{1,\dots,N\}J={1,…,N},

DJ=min⁡{D(J;q):qj≥0, ∑j∉Jqj=1}=∑i∈Jpimin⁡j∉Jc(ωi,ωj),D_J=\min\Big\{D(J;q): q_j\ge0,\ \sum_{j\notin J}q_j=1\Big\}=\sum_{i\in J}p_i\min_{j\notin J}c(\omega_i,\omega_j),DJ​=min{D(J;q):qj​≥0, j∈/J∑​qj​=1}=i∈J∑​pi​j∈/Jmin​c(ωi​,ωj​),

and the minimum is attained at the optimal redistribution rule qˉj=pj+∑i∈Jjpi\bar q_j=p_j+\sum_{i\in J_j}p_iqˉ​j​=pj​+∑i∈Jj​​pi​, where Jj={i∈J:j(i)=j}J_j=\{i\in J: j(i)=j\}Jj​={i∈J:j(i)=j} and j(i)∈arg⁡min⁡j∉Jc(ωi,ωj)j(i)\in\arg\min_{j\notin J}c(\omega_i,\omega_j)j(i)∈argminj∈/J​c(ωi​,ωj​), for every such choice of j(⋅)j(\cdot)j(⋅).

Milestones

  1. Primal–dual representation of D(J;q)D(J;q)D(J;q) (first display of the proof, p. 501): the transportation problem and its linear-programming dual both attain D(J;q)D(J;q)D(J;q).
  2. Lower bound (p. 501): ∑i∈Jpimin⁡k∉Jcik≤D(J;q)\sum_{i\in J}p_i\min_{k\notin J}c_{ik}\le D(J;q)∑i∈J​pi​mink∈/J​cik​≤D(J;q) for every feasible qqq.
  3. Upper bound at qˉ\bar qqˉ​ (p. 501): qˉ\bar qqˉ​ is feasible and D(J;qˉ)≤∑i∈Jpimin⁡j∉JcijD(J;\bar q)\le\sum_{i\in J}p_i\min_{j\notin J}c_{ij}D(J;qˉ​)≤∑i∈J​pi​minj∈/J​cij​.
  4. Theorem 3 (p. 501): for weights prescribed by qj=pj+λjpJq_j=p_j+\lambda_jp_Jqj​=pj​+λj​pJ​, D(J;q)≤∑i∈Jpi∑j∉Jλjc(ωi,ωj)D(J;q)\le\sum_{i\in J}p_i\sum_{j\notin J}\lambda_jc(\omega_i,\omega_j)D(J;q)≤∑i∈J​pi​∑j∈/J​λj​c(ωi​,ωj​), with equality if #J=1\#J=1#J=1 and ccc satisfies the triangle inequality.
  5. Theorem 4 (p. 503): the greedy recursions (16) and (17) give a lower and an upper bound for min⁡{DJ:#J=k}\min\{D_J:\#J=k\}min{DJ​:#J=k}, and the backward set {l1,…,lk}\{l_1,\dots,l_k\}{l1​,…,lk​} is optimal under a nonemptiness condition.

Significance

Theorem 2 reduces the continuous part of scenario reduction to a formula: once the set of kept scenarios is chosen, the best reweighting is to move the mass of every deleted scenario to a nearest kept scenario, and the resulting distance is an explicit sum. This leaves only the combinatorial choice of JJJ, which Theorem 4 brackets by two greedy procedures; these are the backward-reduction and forward-selection algorithms of the paper and of later work by Heitsch and Römisch. Theorem 3 covers the case in which the reduced weights are fixed by the modeller, for instance to keep a uniform distribution uniform.

The results are proved in the paper by elementary linear-programming arguments. As far as is known, none of them has a machine-checked proof. Formalizing them produces a verified finite transportation-problem layer with a general (not necessarily metric) cost and a deleted index set, and verified correctness certificates for the two standard scenario-reduction heuristics.

Difficulty

The upper bound of Theorem 2 is a direct construction. The content lies in the lower bound, which must hold for every reweighting qqq simultaneously; this needs the dual side of the transportation problem, and the full primal–dual representation (Milestone 1) requires strong duality for a transportation problem with only the kept columns, which Mathlib does not provide in this form. A naive argument that bounds each plan row by row gives the lower bound directly for plans, but relating it to D(J;q)D(J;q)D(J;q) as an infimum also requires that plans exist and that the infimum is attained. In Theorem 4, the recursions (16) and (17) are greedy and do not in general produce optimal sets; the lower bound works only because its inner minimum ranges over all j≠lj\neq lj=l, not over the kept scenarios.

Formalization scope

Scenarios are indexed by Fin N (0-based), scenarios are a function ω : Fin N → Ω into an arbitrary type Ω, the cost is c : Ω → Ω → ℝ, and weights, plans and dual variables are real-valued functions on Fin N and Fin N × Fin N. Only the entries at kept indices j∉Jj\notin Jj∈/J enter any constraint, cost or objective. No measure theory is used: the index-level transportation problem is the paper's own representation of μ^c\hat\mu_cμ^​c​ for discrete measures (p. 495). Every theorem carries the standing assumptions of Section 3: c≥0c\ge0c≥0, (C1), (C2), pi>0p_i>0pi​>0 and ∑ipi=1\sum_ip_i=1∑i​pi​=1. Measurability of ccc and conditions (C3) and (C4) concern Ω⊂Rs\Omega\subset\mathbb R^sΩ⊂Rs and play no role for finitely supported measures; they are dropped, so the statements are more general than the page. The hypothesis J≠{1,…,N}J\neq\{1,\dots,N\}J={1,…,N}, implicit in Theorem 2, is stated explicitly; in Theorem 4, 1≤k<N1\le k<N1≤k<N plays this role.

D(J;q)D(J;q)D(J;q) and DJD_JDJ​ are real infima (sInf) of transport costs and are only asserted about where the underlying sets are nonempty and bounded below; "min" is stated as attainment (IsLeast), not as an equality of infima. D(J;q)D(J;q)D(J;q) is defined as the transportation problem and is not defined by the closed form ∑i∈Jpimin⁡j∉Jcij\sum_{i\in J}p_i\min_{j\notin J}c_{ij}∑i∈J​pi​minj∈/J​cij​; under that definition Theorem 2 would be trivial, and it is ruled out here. Likewise the reduced-weight constraint does not force q=qˉq=\bar qq=qˉ​.

Needed infrastructure: finite transportation problems with nonnegativity and marginal constraints, existence of optimal plans (compactness of the feasible polytope), and LP duality for transportation problems. The transportation-problem layer is reusable beyond this mission. Contributions welcome: proofs of the milestones, a general strong-duality result for finite transportation problems, and the examples of p. 502 (single scenario deletion, keeping one scenario).

Selected references

  • J. Dupačová, N. Gröwe-Kuska, W. Römisch, Scenario reduction in stochastic programming: An approach using probability metrics, Math. Program. Ser. A 95 (2003) 493–511. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10107-002-0331-0
  • S. T. Rachev, Probability Metrics and the Stability of Stochastic Models, Wiley, 1991.
  • H. Heitsch, W. Römisch, Scenario reduction algorithms in stochastic programming, Comput. Optim. Appl. 24 (2003) 187–206. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1021805924152
  • W. Römisch, R. Schultz, Stability analysis for stochastic programs, Ann. Oper. Res. 30 (1991) 241–266. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02204819
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CombinatoricsOptimizationTheoretical Computer Science·Captain: mikedeng1

Approximation Techniques for Average Completion Time Scheduling IV: List Scheduling from an Optimal One-Machine Schedule Is a 2-Approximation for In-TreesResearch Paper

Motivation

Minimizing the sum of weighted completion times of jobs on identical parallel machines is one of the basic objectives of machine scheduling: it measures the average time a job spends in the system, weighted by its importance. When the jobs are subject to precedence constraints (a job may start only after certain other jobs have finished), the problem is strongly NP-hard already in very restricted cases, and the question becomes how close to optimal a polynomial-time algorithm can guarantee to be.

Chekuri, Motwani, Natarajan and Stein, Approximation Techniques for Average Completion Time Scheduling (SIAM J. Comput. 31(1), 2001, doi:10.1137/S0097539797327180), develop a general way to turn a good schedule for a single machine into a good schedule for mmm machines. For arbitrary precedence constraints their conversion (Delay List, §4.1–4.3) loses a factor (1+β)ρ+(1+1/β)(1+\beta)\rho+(1+1/\beta)(1+β)ρ+(1+1/β) over a ρ\rhoρ-approximate one-machine schedule, which is 444 when the one-machine schedule is optimal. In §4.4 they show that for in-tree precedence without release dates, the plain list-scheduling rule of Graham, fed with an optimal one-machine schedule, already achieves ratio 222. In-trees are the precedence structures of assembly processes: every job feeds into at most one later job.

Timeline of the relevant results:

  • 1966–1969: Graham introduces list scheduling on parallel machines and analyzes it for makespan (Graham 1969).
  • 1972: Horn gives a polynomial-time optimal one-machine algorithm for weighted completion time under treelike precedence (Horn 1972).
  • 1977: Adolphson gives O(nlog⁡n)O(n\log n)O(nlogn) one-machine algorithms for tree and series-parallel precedence (Adolphson 1977, the paper's reference [1]).
  • 2001: Chekuri, Motwani, Natarajan and Stein prove the ratio-222 bound for in-trees on mmm machines (Theorem 4.17).

Setting

There are nnn jobs J0,…,Jn−1J_0,\dots,J_{n-1}J0​,…,Jn−1​ and m≥1m\ge 1m≥1 identical machines. Job JjJ_jJj​ has a processing time pj>0p_j>0pj​>0 and a weight wj>0w_j>0wj​>0; every job is available at time 000 (there are no release dates).

The precedence constraints form an in-tree (more generally, an in-forest): every job jjj has at most one immediate successor succ⁡(j)\operatorname{succ}(j)succ(j), and following successors never returns to the start. Write i≺ji\prec ji≺j if jjj is reached from iii by following successors one or more times.

A feasible schedule SmS^mSm on mmm machines gives each job a start time Sj≥0S_j\ge 0Sj​≥0 and a machine; a job runs without interruption for pjp_jpj​ time units; two jobs on the same machine do not overlap; and i≺ji\prec ji≺j implies that jjj starts no earlier than iii completes. The completion time is Cjm=Sj+pjC^m_j=S_j+p_jCjm​=Sj​+pj​ and the value of the schedule is ∑jwjCjm\sum_j w_jC^m_j∑j​wj​Cjm​.

The critical-path length κj\kappa_jκj​ (Definition 4.1 with no release dates) is κj=pj\kappa_j=p_jκj​=pj​ if jjj has no predecessors and κj=pj+max⁡i≺jκi\kappa_j=p_j+\max_{i\prec j}\kappa_iκj​=pj​+maxi≺j​κi​ otherwise.

A list is an ordering π\piπ of the jobs that obeys the precedence constraints. It defines the one-machine schedule S1S^1S1 that runs the jobs in list order without idle time; its completion times are Cj1C^1_jCj1​, the total processing time of the jobs up to and including jjj in the list. An optimal one-machine schedule is a list minimizing C1=∑jwjCj1C^1=\sum_j w_jC^1_jC1=∑j​wj​Cj1​.

List scheduling (Graham's rule, footnote 3 of the paper) on mmm machines with list π\piπ: whenever a machine is free, start on it the first job of the list that is ready, i.e. whose predecessors have all completed.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 4.17

Let π\piπ be an optimal one-machine schedule and GGG the list schedule on mmm machines with list π\piπ. Then for every feasible mmm-machine schedule NNN,

∑jwjCjG ≤ 2∑jwjCjN.\sum_j w_jC^G_j\ \le\ 2\sum_j w_jC^N_j .j∑​wj​CjG​ ≤ 2j∑​wj​CjN​.

Milestones

Lemma 4.16 (any precedence-respecting list π\piπ, with its idle-free one-machine schedule S1S^1S1): for every job iii,

CiG ≤ κi+Ci1m.C^G_i\ \le\ \kappa_i+\frac{C^1_i}{m}.CiG​ ≤ κi​+mCi1​​.

Lemma 4.10: COPTm≥COPT1/mC^m_{\mathrm{OPT}}\ge C^1_{\mathrm{OPT}}/mCOPTm​≥COPT1​/m, i.e. ∑jwjCj1/m≤∑jwjCjN\sum_j w_jC^1_j/m\le\sum_j w_jC^N_j∑j​wj​Cj1​/m≤∑j​wj​CjN​ for an optimal list and every feasible NNN.

Lemma 4.11: COPTm≥∑iwiκi=COPT∞C^m_{\mathrm{OPT}}\ge\sum_i w_i\kappa_i=C^\infty_{\mathrm{OPT}}COPTm​≥∑i​wi​κi​=COPT∞​, i.e. ∑iwiκi≤∑iwiCiN\sum_i w_i\kappa_i\le\sum_i w_iC^N_i∑i​wi​κi​≤∑i​wi​CiN​ for every feasible NNN on any number of machines, and the value ∑iwiκi\sum_i w_i\kappa_i∑i​wi​κi​ is attained by a feasible schedule on nnn machines.

Significance

The result. Theorem 4.17 gives a simple, fast algorithm with a guaranteed factor 222 for a strongly NP-hard problem, halving the factor 444 that the general Delay List conversion gives for the same class. The per-job bound of Lemma 4.16 is stronger than the aggregate statement: every single job completes within its critical-path length plus a 1/m1/m1/m share of its one-machine completion time, so the same bound applies to other objectives built from completion times.

Formalizing it. The paper's proof is complete and short, but it argues about events at a time ttt (jobs that finish exactly at ttt, jobs that become ready at ttt, machines freed at ttt) and runs an induction over jobs ordered by start time with an invariant about idle time. A machine-checked version fixes what "list scheduling" means precisely, pins down the counting argument that uses the in-tree structure, and yields reusable definitions of nonpreemptive parallel-machine schedules, critical paths and list schedules. To the knowledge of this mission, none of these results has a machine-checked proof.

Difficulty

List scheduling may start a job that is late in the list before an earlier one, because the earlier job is not yet ready; so the one-machine order is not preserved and the obvious comparison with S1S^1S1 fails. Idle machines are the other obstacle: a machine can stay idle while a job waits for its predecessors, and a per-job bound of the form κi+Ci1/m\kappa_i+C^1_i/mκi​+Ci1​/m holds only if such idle time can be accounted for by JiJ_iJi​'s own chain of predecessors. For general precedence constraints, and for out-trees (every job has at most one immediate predecessor), the paper's accounting breaks down, and the paper states the per-job bound only for in-trees; the in-tree structure is essential to the argument. Events with several jobs finishing at the same instant, and ties in start times, have to be handled without loss.

Formalization scope

  • Jobs are Fin n, machines Fin m, times real numbers. Processing times and weights are strictly positive. There are no release dates: start times are nonnegative. The paper admits pj=0p_j=0pj​=0 only in lower-bound instances elsewhere; the bounds here assume pj>0p_j>0pj​>0.
  • In-trees are encoded by an immediate-successor map succ : Fin n → Option (Fin n) with no cycles; this covers in-forests, the reading of "in-trees" in Theorem 4.17. The precedence relation is its transitive closure.
  • κ\kappaκ is defined by well-founded recursion on the precedence order, exactly as Definition 4.1 with r≡0r\equiv 0r≡0.
  • One-machine schedules are represented by their precedence-respecting order and are idle-free; with no release dates and positive processing times idle time only delays jobs, so optimality among orders is optimality among one-machine schedules. The optimal one-machine schedule is a hypothesis of the goal; the paper's O(nlog⁡n)O(n\log n)O(nlogn) algorithm for computing it (reference [1]) is not formalized, and the running-time claim of Theorem 4.17 is not stated. A separate item asserts that an optimal order exists.
  • List scheduling is specified by two properties that determine Graham's rule up to machine labels: no machine is idle while a ready job waits, and among jobs ready at a start time the earlier one in the list starts first. A separate item asserts that such a schedule exists for every precedence-respecting list, so the goal is not vacuous.
  • Optima are never formed as infima: the approximation ratio is stated against every feasible schedule. A statement of the form "there is an algorithm with ratio 2" would be trivial (an optimal schedule exists) and is ruled out: the goal is about the paper's algorithm.
  • The equality ∑iwiκi=COPT∞\sum_i w_i\kappa_i=C^\infty_{\mathrm{OPT}}∑i​wi​κi​=COPT∞​ in Lemma 4.11 is stated as attainment on nnn machines (as many machines as jobs), which together with the lower bound on every number of machines is the optimum with unboundedly many machines.

Welcome contributions: proofs of the two existence items (Graham's list schedule by event-driven construction; an optimal order over the finite set of linear extensions), of Lemmas 4.10 and 4.11, and of Lemma 4.16. The schedule and list-scheduling definitions are reusable for other parallel-machine results with precedence constraints.

Selected references

  • C. Chekuri, R. Motwani, B. Natarajan, C. Stein, Approximation Techniques for Average Completion Time Scheduling, SIAM J. Comput. 31(1):146–166, 2001. https://doi.org/10.1137/S0097539797327180
  • R. L. Graham, Bounds on multiprocessing timing anomalies, SIAM J. Appl. Math. 17(2):416–429, 1969. https://doi.org/10.1137/0117039
  • W. A. Horn, Single-machine job sequencing with treelike precedence ordering and linear delay penalties, SIAM J. Appl. Math. 23(2):189–202, 1972. https://doi.org/10.1137/0123021
  • D. L. Adolphson, Single machine job sequencing with precedence constraints, SIAM J. Comput. 6(1):40–54, 1977. https://doi.org/10.1137/0206002
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Convex OptimizationOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Generalization Bounds in the Predict-then-Optimize Framework III: Strongly Convex Sets Satisfy the Strength PropertyResearch Paper

Motivation

In the predict-then-optimize framework, a machine-learning model predicts the cost vector c^\hat cc^ of a linear optimization problem min⁡w∈Sc^⊤w\min_{w\in S}\hat c^\top wminw∈S​c^⊤w, and a decision is made by solving that problem with the prediction. Elmachtoub and Grigas (Smart "Predict, then Optimize", Management Science 2022) proposed judging predictions by the SPO loss, the excess cost of the decision induced by c^\hat cc^ when the true cost is ccc. El Balghiti, Elmachtoub, Grigas and Tewari (arXiv:1905.11488v3) develop generalization bounds for learning with the SPO loss.

The SPO loss is discontinuous in c^\hat cc^: its value jumps where the optimization problem has several optimal solutions. The paper's sharper bounds (its Theorems 4 and 5) therefore replace the SPO loss by a margin SPO loss that is Lipschitz, and they hold whenever the feasible region satisfies a geometric condition called the strength property. This mission formalizes the paper's first class of feasible regions for which that condition holds: strongly convex sets, such as Euclidean balls and ℓq\ell_qℓq​ balls with q∈(1,2]q\in(1,2]q∈(1,2].

Setting

Let EEE be a finite-dimensional real vector space with a norm ∥⋅∥\|\cdot\|∥⋅∥ (the paper's Rd\mathbb R^dRd with a generic norm). A cost vector is a linear functional ccc on EEE; its value at www is written c⊤wc^\top wc⊤w, and its dual norm is ∥c∥∗=max⁡∥w∥≤1c⊤w\|c\|_*=\max_{\|w\|\le1}c^\top w∥c∥∗​=max∥w∥≤1​c⊤w. The closed ball of radius rrr around wˉ\bar wwˉ is B(wˉ,r)={w:∥w−wˉ∥≤r}B(\bar w,r)=\{w:\|w-\bar w\|\le r\}B(wˉ,r)={w:∥w−wˉ∥≤r}.

The feasible region S⊆ES\subseteq ES⊆E is nonempty, compact and convex. An optimization oracle is any map w∗w^*w∗ with w∗(c^)∈Sw^*(\hat c)\in Sw∗(c^)∈S and c^⊤w∗(c^)≤c^⊤w\hat c^\top w^*(\hat c)\le\hat c^\top wc^⊤w∗(c^)≤c^⊤w for all w∈Sw\in Sw∈S; no tie-breaking rule is fixed.

  • The degenerate set C∘\mathcal C^\circC∘ consists of the cost vectors c^\hat cc^ for which min⁡w∈Sc^⊤w\min_{w\in S}\hat c^\top wminw∈S​c^⊤w has more than one optimal solution.
  • The distance to degeneracy is νS(c^)=inf⁡c∈C∘∥c−c^∥∗\nu_S(\hat c)=\inf_{c\in\mathcal C^\circ}\|c-\hat c\|_*νS​(c^)=infc∈C∘​∥c−c^∥∗​.
  • SSS satisfies the strength property with parameter μ>0\mu>0μ>0 if, for all cost vectors c^\hat cc^ and all w∈Sw\in Sw∈S,
c^⊤(w−w∗(c^)) ≥ (μ νS(c^)2)∥w−w∗(c^)∥2.\hat c^\top\big(w-w^*(\hat c)\big)\ \ge\ \Big(\frac{\mu\,\nu_S(\hat c)}{2}\Big)\|w-w^*(\hat c)\|^2 .c^⊤(w−w∗(c^)) ≥ (2μνS​(c^)​)∥w−w∗(c^)∥2.
  • The normal cone of SSS at wˉ∈S\bar w\in Swˉ∈S is NS(wˉ)={c:c⊤(w−wˉ)≤0 for all w∈S}N_S(\bar w)=\{c: c^\top(w-\bar w)\le0 \text{ for all } w\in S\}NS​(wˉ)={c:c⊤(w−wˉ)≤0 for all w∈S}.
  • For μˉ≥0\bar\mu\ge0μˉ​≥0, a convex set SSS is μˉ\bar\muμˉ​-strongly convex if for all w1,w2∈Sw_1,w_2\in Sw1​,w2​∈S and λ∈[0,1]\lambda\in[0,1]λ∈[0,1],
B(λw1+(1−λ)w2, (μˉ2)λ(1−λ)∥w1−w2∥2)⊆S.B\Big(\lambda w_1+(1-\lambda)w_2,\ \Big(\frac{\bar\mu}{2}\Big)\lambda(1-\lambda)\|w_1-w_2\|^2\Big)\subseteq S .B(λw1​+(1−λ)w2​, (2μˉ​​)λ(1−λ)∥w1​−w2​∥2)⊆S.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 7, strength claim (p. 23)

If SSS is compact, not a singleton, and μˉ\bar\muμˉ​-strongly convex for some μˉ>0\bar\mu>0μˉ​>0, then for every oracle w∗w^*w∗,

c^⊤(w−w∗(c^)) ≥ (μˉ νS(c^)2)∥w−w∗(c^)∥2for all w∈S, c^.\hat c^\top\big(w-w^*(\hat c)\big)\ \ge\ \Big(\frac{\bar\mu\,\nu_S(\hat c)}{2}\Big)\|w-w^*(\hat c)\|^2\qquad\text{for all } w\in S,\ \hat c .c^⊤(w−w∗(c^)) ≥ (2μˉ​νS​(c^)​)∥w−w∗(c^)∥2for all w∈S, c^.

The strength parameter equals the strong convexity constant.

Milestones

  1. Maximum over a ball (Appendix D.1, p. 35): for r≥0r\ge0r≥0, max⁡w~∈B(w^,r)c⊤w~=c⊤w^+r∥c∥∗\max_{\tilde w\in B(\hat w,r)}c^\top\tilde w=c^\top\hat w+r\|c\|_*maxw~∈B(w^,r)​c⊤w~=c⊤w^+r∥c∥∗​.
  2. Proposition 1 (Vial 1983; p. 23): for a μˉ\bar\muμˉ​-strongly convex set with μˉ≥0\bar\mu\ge0μˉ​≥0 and every wˉ∈S\bar w\in Swˉ∈S,
NS(wˉ)={c:c⊤(w−wˉ)≤−(μˉ2)∥c∥∗∥w−wˉ∥2 for all w∈S}.N_S(\bar w)=\Big\{c: c^\top(w-\bar w)\le-\Big(\frac{\bar\mu}{2}\Big)\|c\|_*\|w-\bar w\|^2\ \text{for all } w\in S\Big\}.NS​(wˉ)={c:c⊤(w−wˉ)≤−(2μˉ​​)∥c∥∗​∥w−wˉ∥2 for all w∈S}.
  1. Degenerate set (proof of Theorem 7, p. 24): under the hypotheses of the goal, C∘={0}\mathcal C^\circ=\{0\}C∘={0}.
  2. Theorem 7, first claim (p. 23): under the same hypotheses, νS(c^)=∥c^∥∗\nu_S(\hat c)=\|\hat c\|_*νS​(c^)=∥c^∥∗​ for every c^\hat cc^.

Significance

Theorem 7 is what makes the paper's margin-based bounds usable for a concrete family of feasible regions. It says two things: the strength property holds with μ=μˉ\mu=\bar\muμ=μˉ​, so the Lipschitz constants in the margin analysis are explicit; and νS(c^)=∥c^∥∗\nu_S(\hat c)=\|\hat c\|_*νS​(c^)=∥c^∥∗​, so the margin of a prediction, and with it the empirical margin SPO loss, is as easy to compute as a dual norm. Combined with bounds on the multivariate Rademacher complexity, this gives generalization bounds for strongly convex regions whose dependence on the dimension improves on the paper's Natarajan-dimension bound. In dimension one it recovers the classical margin bounds for binary classification (Example 7, p. 24).

The results are proved in the paper; Proposition 1 is due to Vial (1983). None of them has a machine-checked proof known to this mission, and Mathlib has no notion of a strongly convex set (its StrongConvexOn concerns functions). The mission produces a formal definition of strongly convex sets for a general norm, the normal-cone characterization, and the connection to the predict-then-optimize strength property. It is one of four missions on this paper; the margin-based generalization bound itself is the subject of mission II, and polyhedral regions of mission IV.

Difficulty

Definition 5 speaks about balls around convex combinations, while Proposition 1 is a pointwise inequality with the exact constant μˉ/2\bar\mu/2μˉ​/2. Evaluating the ball inclusion at any single convex combination loses that constant, since the admissible radius and the displacement of the centre both shrink with the mixing weight. Relating a ball to a linear functional also requires the maximum of c⊤wc^\top wc⊤w over a ball to be attained and equal to c⊤w^+r∥c∥∗c^\top\hat w+r\|c\|_*c⊤w^+r∥c∥∗​, a fact about dual norms whose attainment depends on finite dimensionality.

For νS(c^)=∥c^∥∗\nu_S(\hat c)=\|\hat c\|_*νS​(c^)=∥c^∥∗​, comparing c^\hat cc^ with 0∈C∘0\in\mathcal C^\circ0∈C∘ gives only the inequality νS(c^)≤∥c^∥∗\nu_S(\hat c)\le\|\hat c\|_*νS​(c^)≤∥c^∥∗​; equality needs every nonzero cost vector to have a unique minimizer over SSS. The oracle minimizes, whereas the normal cone is written for maximizers, so the signs in (5) and (8) do not match directly and are a common source of error.

Formalization scope

  • EEE is a finite-dimensional real normed space with an arbitrary norm. Cost vectors are continuous linear functionals (StrongDual ℝ E), so c⊤wc^\top wc⊤w is c w and the operator norm is the dual norm; balls are Metric.closedBall.
  • The feasible region carries the paper's standing assumptions (§2, p. 5): compact, and convex (as part of the strongly convex set predicate). Nonemptiness follows from the hypothesis that SSS is not a singleton, stated as S.Nontrivial. Proposition 1 and the ball identity carry no compactness hypothesis, as in the paper.
  • The oracle is quantified over: the goal holds for every map selecting a minimizer.
  • νS\nu_SνS​ is Metric.infDist to the degenerate set; the parameter conditions μ>0\mu>0μ>0 and μˉ≥0\bar\mu\ge0μˉ​≥0 are hypotheses of the theorems, not parts of the predicates.
  • The strongly convex set predicate includes convexity and quantifies λ\lambdaλ over [0,1][0,1][0,1] only. Without the non-singleton hypothesis the theorem is false: a singleton is strongly convex for every μˉ\bar\muμˉ​, has no degenerate cost vector, and has νS≡0≠∥c^∥∗\nu_S\equiv0\ne\|\hat c\|_*νS​≡0=∥c^∥∗​. A formalization that drops that hypothesis, quantifies λ\lambdaλ over all reals (which empties the ball for λ∉[0,1]\lambda\notin[0,1]λ∈/[0,1]), or fixes a specific oracle is not this theorem.
  • Reusable beyond this mission: the strongly convex set predicate and the normal-cone characterization (relevant to Frank–Wolfe analyses over strongly convex sets), and the identity for the maximum of a linear functional over a ball. Proofs of any milestone, and lemmas giving examples of strongly convex sets (Euclidean balls), are welcome.

Selected references

  • O. El Balghiti, A. N. Elmachtoub, P. Grigas, A. Tewari, Generalization Bounds in the Predict-then-Optimize Framework, arXiv:1905.11488v3, 2022 (Mathematics of Operations Research, 2023). https://arxiv.org/abs/1905.11488
  • A. N. Elmachtoub, P. Grigas, Smart "Predict, then Optimize", Management Science 68(1), 2022. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2020.3922
  • J.-P. Vial, Strong and weak convexity of sets and functions, Mathematics of Operations Research 8(2), 1983. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.8.2.231
  • D. Garber, E. Hazan, Faster rates for the Frank–Wolfe method over strongly-convex sets, ICML 2015. https://arxiv.org/abs/1406.1305
  • M. Journée, Y. Nesterov, P. Richtárik, R. Sepulchre, Generalized power method for sparse principal component analysis, JMLR 11, 2010. https://www.jmlr.org/papers/v11/journee10a.html
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CombinatoricsOptimizationTheoretical Computer Science·Captain: mikedeng1

Local Search Heuristics for k-Median and Facility Location Problems I: Single-Swap Local Search for k-Median Has Locality Gap 5Research Paper

Motivation

The k-median problem asks where to open kkk facilities so that the total distance from a set of clients to their nearest open facility is as small as possible. It is a basic model of facility location in operations research (placing depots, warehouses or servers) and of clustering with representative centres, and it is NP-hard, so the question of interest is how close a polynomial-time method can come to the optimum.

Local search is among the most widely used heuristics for it: start from any kkk facilities and repeatedly exchange one open facility for a closed one while the cost decreases. Arya, Garg, Khandekar, Meyerson, Munagala and Pandit (SIAM J. Comput. 33(3), 2004) gave the first constant-factor guarantee for this heuristic on metric instances: every local optimum of the single-swap local search costs at most five times any solution with kkk facilities. This mission formalizes that result.

Timeline of the relevant bounds:

  • Korupolu, Plaxton and Rajaraman (SODA 1998) analysed a local search for k-median that opens k(1+ϵ)k(1+\epsilon)k(1+ϵ) facilities and costs at most 3+5/ϵ3 + 5/\epsilon3+5/ϵ times the optimum with kkk facilities.
  • Charikar, Guha, Tardos and Shmoys (STOC 1999) gave the first constant-factor approximation for metric k-median, by LP rounding (6236\tfrac23632​).
  • Jain and Vazirani (J. ACM 2001) and Charikar and Guha (FOCS 1999) improved the constant with primal–dual methods to 6 and 4.
  • Arya et al. (STOC 2001; SIAM J. Comput. 2004) proved the locality gap 5 for single swaps and 3+2/p3 + 2/p3+2/p for swaps of ppp facilities at a time, with matching examples.

Setting

A metric instance consists of a finite set CCC of clients, a finite set FFF of facilities and a distance ddd on C∪FC \cup FC∪F that is nonnegative, symmetric and satisfies the triangle inequality. Write cji=d(j,i)c_{ji} = d(j,i)cji​=d(j,i) for the cost of serving client jjj by facility iii.

For a nonempty set S⊆FS \subseteq FS⊆F of open facilities every client is served by its nearest open facility, and the cost of SSS is

cost(S)=∑j∈Cmin⁡i∈Scji.\mathrm{cost}(S) = \sum_{j \in C} \min_{i \in S} c_{ji}.cost(S)=j∈C∑​i∈Smin​cji​.

The k-median problem asks for a set SSS of at most kkk facilities of minimum cost.

A swap ⟨s,s′⟩\langle s, s'\rangle⟨s,s′⟩ closes a facility s∈Ss \in Ss∈S and opens a facility s′∉Ss' \notin Ss′∈/S, giving S−s+s′=(S∖{s})∪{s′}S - s + s' = (S \setminus \{s\}) \cup \{s'\}S−s+s′=(S∖{s})∪{s′}. The neighbourhood of SSS is

B(S)={S−{s}+{s′}∣s∈S, s′∉S},\mathcal B(S) = \{ S - \{s\} + \{s'\} \mid s \in S,\ s' \notin S \},B(S)={S−{s}+{s′}∣s∈S, s′∈/S},

and SSS is locally optimum if cost(S)≤cost(S′)\mathrm{cost}(S) \le \mathrm{cost}(S')cost(S)≤cost(S′) for every S′∈B(S)S' \in \mathcal B(S)S′∈B(S). The local search starts from an arbitrary set of kkk facilities and applies improving swaps until none exists; swaps preserve the number of facilities, so it stops at a locally optimum set of exactly kkk facilities. The locality gap is the supremum, over instances, of the ratio between the cost of a worst local optimum and the optimal cost.

The analysis uses the following notation. For a solution AAA, let σA\sigma_AσA​ assign each client to a nearest facility of AAA, let Aj=cjσA(j)A_j = c_{j\sigma_A(j)}Aj​=cjσA​(j)​ be the service cost of client jjj, and let NA(a)N_A(a)NA​(a) be the set of clients served by a∈Aa \in Aa∈A. For two solutions SSS and OOO put Nso=NO(o)∩NS(s)N^o_s = N_O(o) \cap N_S(s)Nso​=NO​(o)∩NS​(s). A facility s∈Ss \in Ss∈S captures o∈Oo \in Oo∈O if ∣Nso∣>12∣NO(o)∣|N^o_s| > \tfrac12 |N_O(o)|∣Nso​∣>21​∣NO​(o)∣; sss is bad if it captures some o∈Oo \in Oo∈O and good otherwise.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3.2

For every metric instance, every kkk, every locally optimum set SSS of exactly kkk facilities and every nonempty set OOO of at most kkk facilities,

cost(S)≤5⋅cost(O).\mathrm{cost}(S) \le 5 \cdot \mathrm{cost}(O).cost(S)≤5⋅cost(O).

The comparison solution OOO is arbitrary, not an optimum; the statement is the locality gap bound in the form the proof gives.

Milestones, in the order the proof uses them

  1. A facility ooo is captured by at most one facility of SSS (remark after Definition 3.1).
  2. Property 3.1: for each ooo there is a bijection π\piπ of NO(o)N_O(o)NO​(o) with π(Nso)∩Nso=∅\pi(N^o_s) \cap N^o_s = \emptysetπ(Nso​)∩Nso​=∅ whenever sss does not capture ooo.
  3. When ∣S∣=∣O∣|S| = |O|∣S∣=∣O∣ there are ∣O∣|O|∣O∣ swaps ⟨s,o⟩\langle s, o\rangle⟨s,o⟩, one for each o∈Oo \in Oo∈O, such that no facility capturing two or more facilities of OOO is used, every good facility is used at most twice, and a used sss captures no o′≠oo' \ne oo′=o.
  4. Inequality (2): for a locally optimum SSS and such a swap ⟨s,o⟩\langle s, o\rangle⟨s,o⟩,
∑j∈NO(o)(Oj−Sj)+∑j∈NS(s)j∉NO(o)(Oj+Oπ(j)+Sπ(j)−Sj)≥0.\sum_{j \in N_O(o)} (O_j - S_j) + \sum_{\substack{j \in N_S(s)\\ j \notin N_O(o)}} \bigl(O_j + O_{\pi(j)} + S_{\pi(j)} - S_j\bigr) \ge 0.j∈NO​(o)∑​(Oj​−Sj​)+j∈NS​(s)j∈/NO​(o)​∑​(Oj​+Oπ(j)​+Sπ(j)​−Sj​)≥0.

Significance

Theorem 3.2 shows that the simplest exchange heuristic for k-median is a constant-factor approximation on every metric instance, and the paper states that the analysis is tight: its example of §3.5, given for swaps of two facilities, is said to generalize to swaps of p≥1p \ge 1p≥1 facilities, where the bound 3+2/p3 + 2/p3+2/p is 5 for p=1p = 1p=1. Combined with the standard device of accepting only swaps that improve the cost by a factor 1−ϵ/Q1 - \epsilon/Q1−ϵ/Q, it yields a polynomial-time 5/(1−ϵ)5/(1-\epsilon)5/(1−ϵ)-approximation (p. 548). The same capture-and-reassignment argument is reused for multi-swap k-median, for uncapacitated and capacitated facility location in the same paper, and in later work on k-means and on local search for clustering; its milestones (the capture graph and the mapping π\piπ) are the reusable part.

The result has been proved since 2001 and is textbook material (Williamson and Shmoys, The Design of Approximation Algorithms, 2011, Chapter 9). No machine-checked proof of it is known; Mathlib has no k-median problem and no locality-gap result for any clustering objective. The work remaining is to formalize the known proof.

Difficulty

The obvious argument adds up the inequalities cost(S−s+o)≥cost(S)\mathrm{cost}(S - s + o) \ge \mathrm{cost}(S)cost(S−s+o)≥cost(S) over a pairing of SSS with OOO, rerouting the clients of the closed facility sss to the nearest remaining facility. This fails when a single facility of SSS serves most clients of several facilities of OOO: closing it leaves those clients with no nearby open facility, and no bound in terms of cost(O)\mathrm{cost}(O)cost(O) follows. The analysis must choose which swaps to consider so that such facilities are never closed, and must reroute the displaced clients of the facilities it does close to a facility other than the closed one while paying only a constant multiple of their own service costs. Both choices must work for arbitrary ties in the nearest-facility assignments and when SSS and OOO share facilities.

Formalization scope

Namespace LocalSearchFL.KMedian. Clients and facilities are types Cl, Fa with Fintype and DecidableEq; the distance is a real-valued function on Cl ⊕ Fa with fields for nonnegativity, symmetry and the triangle inequality, and d(x,x)=0d(x,x) = 0d(x,x)=0 is not assumed. Solutions are Finset Fa. The cost is defined only for nonempty sets, from a nonemptiness proof, so no value is assigned to the empty solution; the goal takes SSS nonempty with S.card = k, which is the paper's k≥1k \ge 1k≥1. Local optimality quantifies over every swap ⟨s,s′⟩\langle s, s'\rangle⟨s,s′⟩ with s∈Ss \in Ss∈S and s′∉Ss' \notin Ss′∈/S, exactly the neighbourhood B(S)\mathcal B(S)B(S) of Theorem 3.2, and not only over the swaps with s′∈Os' \in Os′∈O that the proof uses. The inequality is stated multiplied out, cost(S)≤5⋅cost(O)\mathrm{cost}(S) \le 5 \cdot \mathrm{cost}(O)cost(S)≤5⋅cost(O), so it is meaningful when cost(O)=0\mathrm{cost}(O) = 0cost(O)=0.

The milestones quantify over nearest-facility assignments σS\sigma_SσS​, σO\sigma_OσO​ with arbitrary ties. Capture is stated in integers as ∣NO(o)∣<2∣Nso∣|N_O(o)| < 2|N^o_s|∣NO​(o)∣<2∣Nso​∣. The bijection π\piπ of NO(o)N_O(o)NO​(o) is a permutation of all clients fixing every client outside NO(o)N_O(o)NO​(o); in inequality (2) it is a single permutation preserving every NO(o)N_O(o)NO​(o). Milestones 1–3 are purely combinatorial and are stated for arbitrary assignments, which contains the paper's case.

A formalization in which local optimality ranges over the swaps ⟨s,o⟩\langle s, o\rangle⟨s,o⟩, o∈Oo \in Oo∈O, only, or in which ∣O∣=∣S∣|O| = |S|∣O∣=∣S∣ or OOO optimal is assumed, or in which the cost of the empty set is 000, is a different statement and is ruled out.

A complete development needs the finite-sum and Finset.inf' API of Mathlib, permutations (Equiv.Perm) and finite counting. The capture machinery and the mapping π\piπ are reusable for the multi-swap and facility location missions of this series. Proofs of individual milestones are welcome independently of the goal.

Selected references

  • V. Arya, N. Garg, R. Khandekar, A. Meyerson, K. Munagala, V. Pandit, Local Search Heuristics for k-Median and Facility Location Problems, SIAM J. Comput. 33(3):544–562, 2004. https://doi.org/10.1137/S0097539702416402
  • M. Charikar, S. Guha, É. Tardos, D. B. Shmoys, A Constant-Factor Approximation Algorithm for the k-Median Problem, J. Comput. System Sci. 65(1):129–149, 2002. https://doi.org/10.1006/jcss.2002.1882
  • K. Jain, V. V. Vazirani, Approximation Algorithms for Metric Facility Location and k-Median Problems Using the Primal-Dual Schema and Lagrangian Relaxation, J. ACM 48(2):274–296, 2001. https://doi.org/10.1145/375827.375845
  • M. R. Korupolu, C. G. Plaxton, R. Rajaraman, Analysis of a Local Search Heuristic for Facility Location Problems, J. Algorithms 37(1):146–188, 2000. https://doi.org/10.1006/jagm.2000.1100
  • D. P. Williamson, D. B. Shmoys, The Design of Approximation Algorithms, Cambridge University Press, 2011. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511921735
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Optimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Jointly Constrained Biconvex Programming I: A Biconcave Function Attains Its Minimum on the BoundaryResearch Paper

Motivation

The bilinear program

min⁡(x,y)  cTx+xTAy+dTysubject tox∈X, y∈Y,\min_{(x,y)} \; c^T x + x^T A y + d^T y \quad \text{subject to} \quad x \in X,\ y \in Y,(x,y)min​cTx+xTAy+dTysubject tox∈X, y∈Y,

with X⊆RpX \subseteq \mathbb{R}^pX⊆Rp and Y⊆RqY \subseteq \mathbb{R}^qY⊆Rq polyhedra, is one of the recurring nonconvex problems of mathematical programming. It arises from constrained bimatrix games (Mangasarian 1964), dynamic Markovian assignment, multicommodity network flow and certain dynamic production problems (Konno 1971, 1976). Its classical structural fact is that, because the constraints on xxx and on yyy are separate and the objective is linear in each block, an optimal solution can be found at an extreme point of X×YX \times YX×Y (Falk 1973, doi:10.1007/BF01580119). Vertex-enumeration, extreme-point ranking and cutting-plane methods for the problem rest on that fact.

Al-Khayyal and Falk (Math. Oper. Res. 8(2), 1983) consider the jointly constrained version, in which the feasible region is an arbitrary set SSS of pairs (x,y)(x, y)(x,y), so that constraints may couple xxx and yyy. They observe that the extreme-point property is then lost, and replace it with a weaker structural fact that survives: a minimum is attained on the boundary of the feasible region. This mission formalizes that result, Theorem 1 of the paper, together with the two examples on p. 274 that delimit it.

Setting

Write points of Rp×Rq\mathbb{R}^p \times \mathbb{R}^qRp×Rq as (x,y)(x, y)(x,y), and let S⊆Rp×RqS \subseteq \mathbb{R}^p \times \mathbb{R}^qS⊆Rp×Rq be a nonempty compact set. No convexity of SSS is assumed. Let φ:Rp×Rq→R\varphi : \mathbb{R}^p \times \mathbb{R}^q \to \mathbb{R}φ:Rp×Rq→R be continuous on SSS.

The function φ\varphiφ is biconcave over SSS (Lean: BiconcaveOn S φ) when both partial functions are concave wherever they live inside SSS: for every fixed yyy, the map x↦φ(x,y)x \mapsto \varphi(x, y)x↦φ(x,y) is concave on every convex set CCC with C×{y}⊆SC \times \{y\} \subseteq SC×{y}⊆S; and for every fixed xxx, the map y↦φ(x,y)y \mapsto \varphi(x, y)y↦φ(x,y) is concave on every convex set DDD with {x}×D⊆S\{x\} \times D \subseteq S{x}×D⊆S. Equivalently, φ\varphiφ is concave along every segment of SSS that is parallel to the xxx-block or to the yyy-block. A bilinear objective f(x)+xTy+g(y)f(x) + x^T y + g(y)f(x)+xTy+g(y) with fff and ggg concave is biconcave; joint concavity of φ\varphiφ is not required.

The boundary ∂S\partial S∂S is the topological frontier of SSS in Rp×Rq\mathbb{R}^p \times \mathbb{R}^qRp×Rq: the closure of SSS minus its interior. A solution of min⁡{φ(x,y):(x,y)∈S}\min\{\varphi(x,y) : (x,y) \in S\}min{φ(x,y):(x,y)∈S} is a point z∈Sz \in Sz∈S with φ(z)≤φ(w)\varphi(z) \le \varphi(w)φ(z)≤φ(w) for all w∈Sw \in Sw∈S (Lean: IsMinOn φ S z). The Euclidean distance on the product (Lean: eucDist) is d((x,y),(x′,y′))=∥x−x′∥2+∥y−y′∥2d\big((x,y),(x',y')\big) = \sqrt{\|x-x'\|^2 + \|y-y'\|^2}d((x,y),(x′,y′))=∥x−x′∥2+∥y−y′∥2​.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 1 (p. 274)

If S⊆Rp×RqS \subseteq \mathbb{R}^p \times \mathbb{R}^qS⊆Rp×Rq (p+q≥1p + q \ge 1p+q≥1) is nonempty and compact, and φ\varphiφ is continuous on SSS and biconcave over SSS, then

∃ z∗∈∂Swithφ(z∗)=min⁡{φ(x,y):(x,y)∈S}.\exists\, z^* \in \partial S \quad \text{with} \quad \varphi(z^*) = \min\{\varphi(x, y) : (x, y) \in S\}.∃z∗∈∂Swithφ(z∗)=min{φ(x,y):(x,y)∈S}.

The conclusion is existence of a boundary minimizer. It does not assert that every minimizer lies on ∂S\partial S∂S (a constant φ\varphiφ is a counterexample to that).

Milestones

  1. Proof of Theorem 1, p. 274. If (xˉ,yˉ)∈int⁡S(\bar x, \bar y) \in \operatorname{int} S(xˉ,yˉ​)∈intS and (x∗,y∗)∈∂S(x^*, y^*) \in \partial S(x∗,y∗)∈∂S is a nearest boundary point in Euclidean distance d∗d^*d∗, then the closed Euclidean ball of radius d∗d^*d∗ about (xˉ,yˉ)(\bar x, \bar y)(xˉ,yˉ​) lies in SSS, and with (s,t)=2(xˉ,yˉ)−(x∗,y∗)(s,t) = 2(\bar x, \bar y) - (x^*, y^*)(s,t)=2(xˉ,yˉ​)−(x∗,y∗) the points (s,t)(s,t)(s,t), (x∗,t)(x^*, t)(x∗,t) and (s,y∗)(s, y^*)(s,y∗) are feasible.
  2. Proof of Theorem 1, p. 275, first display. For φ\varphiφ biconcave over SSS and segments [x∗,s]×{12y∗+12t}[x^*, s] \times \{\tfrac12 y^* + \tfrac12 t\}[x∗,s]×{21​y∗+21​t}, {x∗}×[y∗,t]\{x^*\} \times [y^*, t]{x∗}×[y∗,t], {s}×[y∗,t]\{s\} \times [y^*, t]{s}×[y∗,t] inside SSS,
φ(12(x∗,y∗)+12(s,t))≥12φ(x∗,12y∗+12t)+12φ(s,12y∗+12t)≥14[φ(x∗,y∗)+φ(x∗,t)+φ(s,y∗)+φ(s,t)].\varphi\big(\tfrac12(x^*,y^*) + \tfrac12(s,t)\big) \ge \tfrac12\varphi(x^*, \tfrac12y^*+\tfrac12t) + \tfrac12\varphi(s, \tfrac12y^*+\tfrac12t) \ge \tfrac14\big[\varphi(x^*,y^*)+\varphi(x^*,t)+\varphi(s,y^*)+\varphi(s,t)\big].φ(21​(x∗,y∗)+21​(s,t))≥21​φ(x∗,21​y∗+21​t)+21​φ(s,21​y∗+21​t)≥41​[φ(x∗,y∗)+φ(x∗,t)+φ(s,y∗)+φ(s,t)].
  1. Example, p. 274. The program min⁡{−x+xy−y:−6x+8y≤3, 3x−y≤3, 0≤x,y≤5}\min\{-x + xy - y : -6x + 8y \le 3,\ 3x - y \le 3,\ 0 \le x, y \le 5\}min{−x+xy−y:−6x+8y≤3, 3x−y≤3, 0≤x,y≤5} has the solution (7/6,1/2)(7/6, 1/2)(7/6,1/2), which is not an extreme point of the feasible region, and no extreme point is a solution.
  2. Example, p. 274. min⁡{xy:−1≤x≤2, −2≤y≤3}\min\{xy : -1 \le x \le 2,\ -2 \le y \le 3\}min{xy:−1≤x≤2, −2≤y≤3} has local solutions at (−1,3)(-1, 3)(−1,3) and (2,−2)(2, -2)(2,−2), the first of which is not global.

Significance

Theorem 1 is the structural statement that separates jointly constrained bilinear and biconcave programs from their separably constrained special case. It says where a global search may restrict attention, namely to ∂S\partial S∂S, and example 3 shows that this cannot be sharpened to extreme points once the constraints couple the blocks. Example 4 records that such problems have proper local minima, so a local method alone does not solve them; this motivates the branch-and-bound algorithm of the same paper, which is the subject of the companion mission.

The result is proved in the paper; this mission produces its machine-checked statement and proof. Mathlib contains the Bauer-type principle for jointly concave functions on compact convex sets, but no statement of this kind for biconcave functions on nonconvex sets, and no formalization of Theorem 1 is known. The two examples are small but exact computations, and they certify that the definitions admit the intended instances.

Difficulty

The first idea is to apply the concave-minimization principle: a concave function on a compact convex set attains its minimum at an extreme point. It does not apply. SSS need not be convex, so it has no useful extreme-point structure, and φ\varphiφ is concave only along segments parallel to one block, so it is not concave along the segment from an interior point to a boundary point in a general direction. Example 3 shows that the conclusion "extreme point" is actually false here.

What remains is local geometry around an interior minimizer: one must find points of SSS around it at which biconcavity can be applied in both blocks, and control their membership in SSS without convexity. The feasibility of the mixed points (x∗,t)(x^*, t)(x∗,t) and (s,y∗)(s, y^*)(s,y∗), which the paper uses without comment, is where the choice of the Euclidean distance matters, and it is recorded as a separate milestone.

Formalization scope

  • Points are pairs in EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin p) × EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin q). The boundary is Mathlib's frontier in this product; it does not depend on the norm. Only milestone 1 refers to a distance, and it uses eucDist, the Euclidean distance written out, because Mathlib's default metric on a product is the maximum of the block distances.
  • The theorem is the "more general context" of p. 274, independent of the paper's Problem 𝒫: the standing assumptions (a)–(c) of p. 274 (convex fff, ggg; closed convex SSS; a box Ω\OmegaΩ) do not enter.
  • Hypotheses of the goal: IsCompact S, S.Nonempty, ContinuousOn φ S (continuity only on SSS), and BiconcaveOn S φ. One hypothesis is added: 0<p+q0 < p + q0<p+q. For p=q=0p = q = 0p=q=0 the space is a point, whose only nonempty subset has empty frontier, so the conclusion fails; the paper works in positive dimension throughout.
  • Biconcavity is read over SSS: concavity on every convex subset of each section of SSS. Assuming instead concavity of each partial function on the whole space would be a stronger hypothesis and a weaker theorem.
  • Trivializing formalizations ruled out: the statement assumes neither joint concavity of φ\varphiφ nor convexity of SSS (either would reduce it to the Bauer principle), and it covers sets with nonempty interior; the case of empty interior, where ∂S=S\partial S = S∂S=S, is included but is not the only case.
  • Corrected misprint (milestone 3): the paper prints the solution of example 3 as (7/16,1/2)(7/16, 1/2)(7/16,1/2). That point has objective value −23/32-23/32−23/32, while the feasible vertex (1,0)(1,0)(1,0) has value −1-1−1. On the edge 3x−y=33x - y = 33x−y=3 the objective equals 3x2−7x+33x^2 - 7x + 33x2−7x+3, minimized at x=7/6x = 7/6x=7/6, value −13/12-13/12−13/12, the global minimum. The Lean states the corrected point (7/6,1/2)(7/6, 1/2)(7/6,1/2); the milestone text is kept verbatim.
  • In milestone 4, "local solution" is IsLocalMinOn relative to the box, and non-globality of (−1,3)(-1, 3)(−1,3) records the paper's word "proper".
  • Infrastructure needed: nearest boundary points of compact sets (Mathlib has IsCompact.exists_mem_frontier_infDist_compl_eq_dist, stated for the ambient metric), the fact that a closed ball about an interior point whose radius is the distance to the frontier lies in the set, and concavity on segments. A lemma that works for an arbitrary norm on the product would be reusable. Contributions of alternative proofs are welcome.

Selected references

  • Faiz A. Al-Khayyal and James E. Falk, Jointly Constrained Biconvex Programming, Mathematics of Operations Research 8(2):273–286, 1983. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.8.2.273
  • James E. Falk, A Linear Max-Min Problem, Mathematical Programming 5:169–188, 1973. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01580119
  • Hiroshi Konno, A Cutting Plane Algorithm for Solving Bilinear Programs, Mathematical Programming 11:14–27, 1976. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01580367
  • Olvi L. Mangasarian, Equilibrium Points of Bimatrix Games, Journal of the Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics 12(4):778–780, 1964. https://doi.org/10.1137/0112064
  • Heinz Bauer, Minimalstellen von Funktionen und Extremalpunkte, Archiv der Mathematik 9:389–393, 1958. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01900582
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Bandit AlgorithmsOptimizationProbability+1·Captain: naimengye

Multi-armed Bandit Allocation Indices VI: Bandit Sampling Processes, Favourable Priors and Invariance of the IndexTextbook

Motivation

The bandit processes that motivated the index theorem are sampling processes: an arm is a population from which one draws i.i.d. observations whose distribution has an unknown parameter, and each draw both earns something and teaches something. Chapter 7 of Gittins, Glazebrook and Weber, Multi-armed Bandit Allocation Indices (2nd ed., doi:10.1002/9780470980033), develops the theory of such processes in the Bayesian setting: the state of the process is the current posterior for the parameter, continuing it samples the next value from the predictive distribution and moves to the new posterior. When the observations are themselves the rewards one has a reward process, the classical Bayesian multi-armed bandit; when the aim is to find as quickly as possible an individual whose measurement reaches a target TTT (a compound active enough to warrant further testing, in the drug-screening problem from which the index theorem came) one has a target process, which is a job that completes when the target is reached. Two questions organize the chapter. When can the index be written down without any optimization, and when do symmetries of the model reduce the index to a function of fewer variables? The first is answered by the notion of a favourable prior (Section 7.3): if no run of observations below the target can raise the current probability of success, then the index is that probability, exactly, by Proposition 2.7. The second is answered by the invariance theorems of Section 7.4: a location parameter with a conjugate prior gives ν(xˉ,n)=xˉ+ν(0,n)\nu(\bar x, n) = \bar x + \nu(0, n)ν(xˉ,n)=xˉ+ν(0,n), a scale parameter gives ν(xˉ,n)=xˉ ν(1,n)\nu(\bar x, n) = \bar x\,\nu(1, n)ν(xˉ,n)=xˉν(1,n), and for target processes the target can be absorbed into the state, ν(xˉ,n,T)=ν(xˉ−T,n,0)\nu(\bar x, n, T) = \nu(\bar x - T, n, 0)ν(xˉ,n,T)=ν(xˉ−T,n,0). These identities are what make the tables of Chapter 8 one-dimensional.

Setting

A sampling model consists of a likelihood f(⋅∣θ)f(\cdot \mid \theta)f(⋅∣θ), a family of priors π(⋅∣p)\pi(\cdot \mid p)π(⋅∣p) on the parameter indexed by the parameters ppp of a conjugate family, and the Bayes update p↦pxp \mapsto p_xp↦px​ of those parameters after observing xxx; the family is conjugate if the posterior of π(⋅∣p)\pi(\cdot \mid p)π(⋅∣p) given X=xX = xX=x is π(⋅∣px)\pi(\cdot \mid p_x)π(⋅∣px​). The predictive distribution is f(⋅∣p)=∫f(⋅∣θ)π(dθ∣p)f(\cdot \mid p) = \int f(\cdot \mid \theta)\pi(d\theta \mid p)f(⋅∣p)=∫f(⋅∣θ)π(dθ∣p). The reward process moves from ppp to pxp_xpx​ with x∼f(⋅∣p)x \sim f(\cdot \mid p)x∼f(⋅∣p) and earns r(p)=∫xf(x∣p)dxr(p) = \int x f(x \mid p)dxr(p)=∫xf(x∣p)dx. The target process with target TTT moves to the completion state CCC if x≥Tx \ge Tx≥T and to pxp_xpx​ otherwise, earning the current probability of success r(p)=f([T,∞)∣p)r(p) = f([T, \infty) \mid p)r(p)=f([T,∞)∣p), and 000 in CCC. A state ppp is favourable if r(px1⋯xm)≤r(p)r(p_{x_1 \cdots x_m}) \le r(p)r(px1​⋯xm​​)≤r(p) for every finite sequence of observations xi<Tx_i < Txi​<T. For the invariance theorems the parameters are (xˉ,n)(\bar x, n)(xˉ,n) with the update ((nxˉ+x)/(n+1),n+1)((n\bar x + x)/(n+1), n+1)((nxˉ+x)/(n+1),n+1); μ\muμ is a location parameter of the likelihood if f(⋅∣μ+c)f(\cdot \mid \mu + c)f(⋅∣μ+c) is f(⋅∣μ)f(\cdot \mid \mu)f(⋅∣μ) shifted by ccc, and xˉ\bar xxˉ is a location parameter of the prior family if π(⋅∣xˉ+c,n)\pi(\cdot \mid \bar x + c, n)π(⋅∣xˉ+c,n) is π(⋅∣xˉ,n)\pi(\cdot \mid \bar x, n)π(⋅∣xˉ,n) shifted by ccc; scale parameters are defined with x↦bxx \mapsto bxx↦bx, b>0b > 0b>0. The Gittins index is that of the Bandit Algorithms model on these chains.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 7.9 (in the form of Corollary 7.10)

If μ\muμ is a location parameter of a reward process with a conjugate prior family in which xˉ\bar xxˉ is a location parameter and the parameters update as the sample mean and count, then for every n>0n > 0n>0

r(xˉ+c,n)=r(xˉ,n)+candν(xˉ,n)=xˉ+ν(0,n),r(\bar x + c, n) = r(\bar x, n) + c \quad\text{and}\quad \nu(\bar x, n) = \bar x + \nu(0, n),r(xˉ+c,n)=r(xˉ,n)+candν(xˉ,n)=xˉ+ν(0,n),

under the standing assumptions that the observations have a mean and the discounted rewards of the chain are integrable.

Milestones

Proposition 7.4 (favourable state: ν=r\nu = rν=r); Example 7.5 (Bernoulli target process, ν(α,β)=α/(α+β)\nu(\alpha, \beta) = \alpha/(\alpha + \beta)ν(α,β)=α/(α+β)); Example 7.6 (normal target process with known variance, ν(xˉ,n)=Φ(xˉ(1+n−1)−1/2)\nu(\bar x, n) = \Phi(\bar x (1 + n^{-1})^{-1/2})ν(xˉ,n)=Φ(xˉ(1+n−1)−1/2) for xˉ≥0\bar x \ge 0xˉ≥0); Theorem 7.11 (scale parameter: ν(xˉ,n)=xˉ ν(1,n)\nu(\bar x, n) = \bar x\,\nu(1, n)ν(xˉ,n)=xˉν(1,n)); Theorem 7.17 (target process with a location parameter: ν(xˉ,n,T)=ν(xˉ−T,n,0)\nu(\bar x, n, T) = \nu(\bar x - T, n, 0)ν(xˉ,n,T)=ν(xˉ−T,n,0)).

Significance

Theorem 7.9 and its companions are the reason the Gittins index of the normal reward process is tabulated as a function of nnn alone and that of the exponential process as a function of nnn and one ratio; every computational method of Chapter 8 starts by reducing the state space with them. Proposition 7.4 is the source of every closed-form index in the book: it identifies the states in which sampling for information is worthless, so that the index collapses to the immediate expected reward, and Examples 7.5 and 7.6 show that for the Bernoulli target process this is every state and for the normal target process every state with a nonnegative posterior mean. The formalization gives the platform its first Bayesian sampling-process model, in which the state is a posterior and conjugacy is stated through the posterior kernel of the likelihood, and its first index identities on unbounded-reward chains, which is where the integrability assumptions of the Bandit Algorithms model do real work.

None of this is machine-checked. The invariance theorems are stated in the proper-prior form of the corollaries, with the model's symmetry as hypotheses, so that they apply to any conjugate family with the stated structure rather than to a particular density.

Difficulty

The invariance theorems require showing that the chain of parameters from the shifted (scaled) state is the image of the chain from the original state under the shift (scaling) of trajectories, which is an equivariance of the Ionescu–Tulcea construction with respect to a measurable bijection commuting with the kernel; that stopping times are carried to stopping times; that the discounted reward of a stopping time shifts by ccc times the discounted time; and that the supremum of a nonempty bounded set of reals shifts and scales accordingly. Boundedness of the set of ratios is where the integrability assumption enters. Proposition 7.4 is the chain-level statement that all rewards along every trajectory from a favourable state are at most r(p)r(p)r(p), which needs an induction on the trajectory law of the target chain, followed by the argument of Proposition 2.7. Example 7.6 needs the monotonicity of xˉm(1+1/(n+m))−1/2\bar x_m (1 + 1/(n+m))^{-1/2}xˉm​(1+1/(n+m))−1/2 in the observations below the target, a small inequality, plus the Gaussian probability of a half-line as the current probability of success; Example 7.5 needs only that α/(α+β+m)\alpha/(\alpha + \beta + m)α/(α+β+m) decreases.

Formalization scope

The sampling model is a structure with Markov likelihood and prior kernels and a jointly measurable update; the predictive distribution is the kernel composition; conjugacy is an almost-everywhere identity between Mathlib's posterior of the likelihood with respect to the prior and the prior at the updated parameters, and is carried as a hypothesis of the invariance theorems and of Proposition 7.4 so that their subject is the Bayesian process. For the parameters (xˉ,n)(\bar x, n)(xˉ,n) it is required on n>0n > 0n>0 only (IsConjugateOn): a proper prior has n>0n > 0n>0, and conjugacy at every (xˉ,n)∈R2(\bar x, n) \in \mathbb{R}^2(xˉ,n)∈R2 is impossible with a location parameter, since at n=−1n = -1n=−1 the update divides by zero and sends every observation to one state, which made the first draft's location theorems vacuous. The chains are built with Kernel.map of product kernels, so their measurability is structural, and the target process lives on P ⊕ Unit with the completion state absorbing. The book's improper priors are replaced by proper conjugate families with the location or scale structure of Corollaries 7.10 and 7.12, as those corollaries do; the discrete-time correction factor of Section 2.8 is not applied since it cancels in every identity stated. The two examples are built directly from a uniform or Gaussian seed with the transition probabilities the book computes (the beta and normal posterior computations of Exercise 7.1 are not formalized). Hypotheses: a∈(0,1)a \in (0, 1)a∈(0,1); integrable observations and L&S Assumption 35.6 for the reward processes; n>0n > 0n>0 for the invariance theorems and xˉ>0\bar x > 0xˉ>0 for the scale theorem; α,β>0\alpha, \beta > 0α,β>0; xˉ≥0\bar x \ge 0xˉ≥0 and n>0n > 0n>0 for the normal example.

Trivializing readings are excluded: the indices are the genuine suprema of the Bandit Algorithms definition with integrable rewards, the update rule is the book's and not a free parameter, and the favourability condition ranges over all finite observation sequences. Welcome contributions: the equivariance of the trajectory measure under a state bijection commuting with the kernel, the transport of stopping times, and the reward bound along the target chain from a favourable state.

Selected references

  • J. Gittins, K. Glazebrook, R. Weber, Multi-armed Bandit Allocation Indices, 2nd ed., Wiley, 2011, Chapter 7. doi:10.1002/9780470980033
  • J. C. Gittins, D. M. Jones, A dynamic allocation index for the sequential design of experiments, in Progress in Statistics (J. Gani, ed.), North-Holland, 1974.
  • D. M. Jones, Search Procedures for Industrial Chemical Research, PhD thesis, University of Wales, 1975.
  • H. Raiffa, R. Schlaifer, Applied Statistical Decision Theory, Harvard University Press, 1961.
  • T. S. Ferguson, Mathematical Statistics: A Decision Theoretic Approach, Academic Press, 1967.
  • T. Lattimore, C. Szepesvári, Bandit Algorithms, Cambridge University Press, 2020, Chapters 34–35. doi:10.1017/9781108571401
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Multi-armed Bandit Allocation Indices V: Restless Bandits, Indexability and Whittle Indices for Monotone ModelsTextbook

Motivation

Every proof of the index theorem in Gittins, Glazebrook and Weber, Multi-armed Bandit Allocation Indices (2nd ed., doi:10.1002/9780470980033), uses the fact that a bandit not being processed is frozen. Chapter 6 drops that: Whittle's restless bandits evolve under the passive action too, by a different law, and mmm of nnn must be active at every time. The problem is PSPACE-hard in general, so Whittle proposed a heuristic built from a Lagrangian relaxation: replace the hard constraint by a subsidy WWW paid whenever a bandit is passive, solve the resulting single-bandit average-reward problem, and read off, for each state, the least subsidy W(x)W(x)W(x) at which the passive action becomes optimal. When the set of states where passivity is optimal grows monotonically with WWW, the bandit is indexable and W(x)W(x)W(x) is its Whittle index; the Whittle index policy activates the mmm bandits of largest index. It reduces to the Gittins index policy when the passive action freezes, it is asymptotically optimal as nnn grows under a fluid-stability condition (Weber and Weiss), and it has become the standard heuristic for sensor management, opportunistic channel access, maintenance and queueing control. The price is that indexability must be established model by model. Section 6.5 shows how easy this is when the single-bandit problem is solved by a monotone policy, on two bi-directional models: the spinning plates asset, which improves under investment and deteriorates when neglected, and the vigour bandit of Whittle's Ehrenfest project, which tires when worked and recovers when rested.

Setting

A restless bandit is a Markov decision process with two actions, active (u=1u = 1u=1) and passive (u=0u = 0u=0), each with its own transition kernel and reward. Under a deterministic stationary Markov policy ggg with passive subsidy WWW the reward in state xxx is r(x,g(x))+W(1−g(x))r(x, g(x)) + W(1 - g(x))r(x,g(x))+W(1−g(x)), and the average reward from xxx is the Cesàro limit of the expected rewards. The optimal average reward g(W)g(W)g(W) is the supremum over such policies and initial states; a policy is optimal if it attains g(W)g(W)g(W) from every initial state; E0(W)E_0(W)E0​(W) is the set of states in which some optimal policy is passive; the bandit is indexable if E0(W)E_0(W)E0​(W) is nondecreasing in WWW; and W(x)=inf⁡{W:x∈E0(W)}W(x) = \inf\{W : x \in E_0(W)\}W(x)=inf{W:x∈E0​(W)}.

The spinning plates asset lives on {1,…,k}\{1, \dots, k\}{1,…,k}: active moves x→x+1x \to x + 1x→x+1 at rate λ(x)\lambda(x)λ(x), passive moves x→x−1x \to x - 1x→x−1 at rate μ(x)\mu(x)μ(x), λ(k)=μ(1)=0\lambda(k) = \mu(1) = 0λ(k)=μ(1)=0, and r(x)r(x)r(x) is earned under both actions, rrr increasing. Uniformized so that rates are at most one, it is a discrete-time bandit whose kernels move with the rate's probability and otherwise stay. The monotone policy (y)(y)(y) is passive exactly on {x≥y}\{x \ge y\}{x≥y}; under it the asset alternates between y−1y - 1y−1 and yyy, spending the fraction ϕ(y)=λ(y−1)/(λ(y−1)+μ(y))\phi(y) = \lambda(y-1)/(\lambda(y-1) + \mu(y))ϕ(y)=λ(y−1)/(λ(y−1)+μ(y)) of its time at yyy, so its average reward is Wϕ(y)+R(y)W\phi(y) + R(y)Wϕ(y)+R(y) with R(y)=r(y)ϕ(y)+r(y−1)(1−ϕ(y))R(y) = r(y)\phi(y) + r(y-1)(1 - \phi(y))R(y)=r(y)ϕ(y)+r(y−1)(1−ϕ(y)), and W∗(x)=(R(x+1)−R(x))/(ϕ(x)−ϕ(x+1))W^*(x) = (R(x+1) - R(x))/(\phi(x) - \phi(x+1))W∗(x)=(R(x+1)−R(x))/(ϕ(x)−ϕ(x+1)). The vigour bandit is the mirror image: active moves down at rate ν(x)\nu(x)ν(x) and earns r(x)r(x)r(x), passive moves up at rate ρ(x)\rho(x)ρ(x) and earns nothing, ψ(y)=ν(y)/(ν(y)+ρ(y−1))\psi(y) = \nu(y)/(\nu(y) + \rho(y-1))ψ(y)=ν(y)/(ν(y)+ρ(y−1)), and W∗∗(x)=(r(x)(1−ψ(x))−r(x+1)(1−ψ(x+1)))/(ψ(x+1)−ψ(x))W^{**}(x) = (r(x)(1 - \psi(x)) - r(x+1)(1 - \psi(x+1)))/(\psi(x+1) - \psi(x))W∗∗(x)=(r(x)(1−ψ(x))−r(x+1)(1−ψ(x+1)))/(ψ(x+1)−ψ(x)).

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 6.4

For the spinning plates asset: (i) if ϕ\phiϕ is strictly decreasing over the thresholds 1≤y≤k+11 \le y \le k + 11≤y≤k+1, the asset is indexable; (ii) if additionally W∗W^*W∗ is strictly decreasing over the states, the Whittle index is

W(x)=W∗(x)=R(x+1)−R(x)ϕ(x)−ϕ(x+1),1≤x≤k.W(x) = W^*(x) = \frac{R(x+1) - R(x)}{\phi(x) - \phi(x+1)}, \qquad 1 \le x \le k.W(x)=W∗(x)=ϕ(x)−ϕ(x+1)R(x+1)−R(x)​,1≤x≤k.

Milestones

Eqs. (6.9)–(6.10): the monotone policy (y)(y)(y) earns Wϕ(y)+R(y)W\phi(y) + R(y)Wϕ(y)+R(y) from every initial state and g(W)=max⁡y[Wϕ(y)+R(y)]g(W) = \max_y [W\phi(y) + R(y)]g(W)=maxy​[Wϕ(y)+R(y)], because a monotone policy always achieves g(W)g(W)g(W); Theorem 6.5, the same two statements for the vigour bandit with ψ\psiψ increasing and W∗∗W^{**}W∗∗ increasing.

Significance

Theorem 6.4 is the chapter's template for proving indexability: the single-bandit value g(W)g(W)g(W) is the upper envelope of finitely many lines Wϕ(y)+R(y)W\phi(y) + R(y)Wϕ(y)+R(y) whose slopes decrease in the threshold, so the optimal threshold moves monotonically with the subsidy and the hinge points of the envelope are the indices. The same argument gives Theorem 6.5, the admission-control indices of Section 6.7, and the marginal productivity indices of Niño-Mora; it is the reason Whittle indices are computable in closed form for bi-directional models. Its formalization establishes, on the platform, the first restless-bandit model with a proved index, and the general notions of passive set, indexability and Whittle index that every later restless-bandit statement will use.

None of this is machine-checked. The average-reward optimality notion is stated without the DP equation (6.6), through optimality from every initial state, which is what the equation's solution encodes on a finite state space and avoids the relative value function altogether.

Difficulty

The proof in the book is two paragraphs, but it stands on the reduction to monotone policies, which is only sketched: every deterministic stationary policy, from every initial state, drives the asset into an absorbing endpoint or a two-state cycle {z−1,z}\{z - 1, z\}{z−1,z} whose average reward is that of the monotone policy (z)(z)(z), so no policy beats the best monotone one and the passive set under an optimal-from-everywhere policy is exactly {x≥x(W)}\{x \ge x(W)\}{x≥x(W)} for the smallest maximizing threshold. Formalizing this needs the average reward of a finite Markov chain as a limit determined by the stationary distribution of the recurrent class reached, for the two-point kernels of the model, and a case analysis of policies as {0,1}\{0,1\}{0,1}-strings. The envelope argument then needs that the smallest maximizer of max⁡y[Wϕ(y)+R(y)]\max_y [W\phi(y) + R(y)]maxy​[Wϕ(y)+R(y)] is nonincreasing in WWW when ϕ\phiϕ is strictly decreasing, and that with W∗W^*W∗ strictly decreasing the maximizer is ≤x\le x≤x exactly when W≥W∗(x)W \ge W^*(x)W≥W∗(x). Theorem 6.5 is the same with the roles of up and down exchanged. Nothing in Mathlib computes Cesàro limits of finite Markov chains.

Formalization scope

Restless bandits are the two-action DecisionProcesses of the superprocess module; average reward is a real limsup of Cesàro means of Bochner integrals over the chain law of the Bandit Algorithms model under the stationary kernel; the optimal average reward is a supremum over the finite type of deterministic stationary Markov policies and the finite state space, bounded by the reward bound. Both models are on Fin k with the book's states shifted down by one, kernels driftKernel p f that move to f x with probability p x, and the boundary conventions of ϕ\phiϕ and ψ\psiψ (the book's "convenient positive values") replaced by their values 1,01, 01,0 and 0,10, 10,1 at the two extreme thresholds; the model assumptions λ(k)=μ(1)=0\lambda(k) = \mu(1) = 0λ(k)=μ(1)=0, ν(1)=ρ(k)=0\nu(1) = \rho(k) = 0ν(1)=ρ(k)=0, rates in [0,1][0, 1][0,1], and rrr increasing and nonnegative are hypotheses. Theorem 6.5's "increasing" is read as strictly increasing, as in Theorem 6.4, since a nonstrict ψ\psiψ admits zero interior rates for which the monotone reduction fails. The milestone (6.9) requires k≥1k \ge 1k≥1 and positive interior rates, which Theorem 6.4's hypothesis (i) implies.

Trivializing readings are excluded: indexability is monotonicity of the passive set over all real subsidies, the passive set is defined through policies optimal from every initial state, and the index identity is for every state. Welcome contributions: the average reward of a two-state cycle, the reduction of an arbitrary {0,1}\{0,1\}{0,1}-policy to a monotone one, and the envelope lemma for lines with decreasing slopes.

Selected references

  • J. Gittins, K. Glazebrook, R. Weber, Multi-armed Bandit Allocation Indices, 2nd ed., Wiley, 2011, Chapter 6. doi:10.1002/9780470980033
  • P. Whittle, Restless bandits: activity allocation in a changing world, Journal of Applied Probability 25(A), 1988. doi:10.2307/3214163
  • R. R. Weber, G. Weiss, On an index policy for restless bandits, Journal of Applied Probability 27(3), 1990. doi:10.2307/3214547
  • K. D. Glazebrook, C. Kirkbride, D. Ruiz-Hernandez, Spinning plates and squad systems: policies for bi-directional restless bandits, Advances in Applied Probability 38(1), 2006. doi:10.1239/aap/1143936141
  • J. Niño-Mora, Restless bandits, partial conservation laws and indexability, Advances in Applied Probability 33(1), 2001. doi:10.1017/S0001867800010661
  • C. H. Papadimitriou, J. N. Tsitsiklis, The complexity of optimal queueing network control, Mathematics of Operations Research 24(2), 1999. doi:10.1287/moor.24.2.293
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Multi-armed Bandit Allocation Indices IV: The Achievable Region, Generalized Conservation Laws and the Adaptive Greedy AlgorithmTextbook

Motivation

Chapter 5 of Gittins, Glazebrook and Weber, Multi-armed Bandit Allocation Indices (2nd ed., doi:10.1002/9780470980033), presents the achievable region methodology of Tsoucas, Bertsimas and Niño-Mora, Glazebrook and Garbe, and Dacre, Glazebrook and Niño-Mora: instead of arguing about policies, one argues about the set of performance vectors they can produce. For a multi-armed bandit the natural performance of a policy is the vector of discounted numbers of times each state is continued; the expected return is linear in it; and the set of achievable performances turns out to be a polytope cut out by conservation laws, one inequality per subset of states, with equality exactly for the priority policies that put that subset last. Optimizing a linear objective over a polytope is a linear program, its dual is solved by an adaptive greedy algorithm, and the primal solution is the performance of a priority policy whose priorities are the algorithm's outputs, the Gittins indices. This gives yet another proof of the index theorem (Section 5.3) and, more importantly, a definition, generalized conservation laws (Section 5.4), of the class of systems for which the same argument works: branching bandits, multi-class queues, job scheduling with discounted rewards, systems with imposed priority classes. The chapter's main result, Theorem 5.5, is the statement that every such system is solved by an index policy.

Setting

There are NNN job types E={1,…,N}E = \{1, \dots, N\}E={1,…,N}. A policy π\piπ has a performance xπ∈R+Nx^\pi \in \mathbb{R}^N_+xπ∈R+N​, a vector of expectations; a permutation σ\sigmaσ of EEE defines the permutation policy giving σN\sigma_NσN​ highest and σ1\sigma_1σ1​ lowest priority, and Sk={σ1,…,σk}S_k = \{\sigma_1, \dots, \sigma_k\}Sk​={σ1​,…,σk​} is the set of the kkk lowest-priority types. The system satisfies GCL(1) if there are a base function b:2E→R+b : 2^E \to \mathbb{R}_+b:2E→R+​ and a matrix A=(AiS)A = (A_i^S)A=(AiS​), positive on SSS and zero off it, such that for every policy

∑i∈SAiSxiπ≥b(S)(S⊆E),∑i∈EAiExiπ=b(E),\sum_{i \in S} A_i^S x_i^\pi \ge b(S) \quad (S \subseteq E), \qquad \sum_{i \in E} A_i^E x_i^\pi = b(E),i∈S∑​AiS​xiπ​≥b(S)(S⊆E),i∈E∑​AiE​xiπ​=b(E),

with equality in the first for every permutation policy whose ∣S∣|S|∣S∣ lowest-priority types are SSS. GCL(2) reverses the inequality. The adaptive greedy algorithm AG(A,r)AG(A, r)AG(A,r) picks iNi_NiN​ maximizing ri/AiEr_i/A_i^Eri​/AiE​, sets yˉE\bar y_Eyˉ​E​ to the maximum, removes iNi_NiN​, and repeats with the adjusted rewards ri−∑j≥kAiSjyˉSjr_i - \sum_{j \ge k} A_i^{S_j}\bar y_{S_j}ri​−∑j≥k​AiSj​​yˉ​Sj​​ divided by AiSk−1A_i^{S_{k-1}}AiSk−1​​; its outputs are the order i1,…,iNi_1, \dots, i_Ni1​,…,iN​, the dual variables yˉSk\bar y_{S_k}yˉ​Sk​​ and the indices νik=∑j≥kyˉSj\nu_{i_k} = \sum_{j \ge k} \bar y_{S_j}νik​​=∑j≥k​yˉ​Sj​​.

For the SFABP of Section 5.3, nnn identical bandit processes on EEE with kernel PPP and discount factor aaa in the model of the Bandit Algorithms series, xiπ=Eπ∑tatIi(t)x_i^\pi = \mathbb{E}^\pi \sum_t a^t I_i(t)xiπ​=Eπ∑t​atIi​(t) is the discounted number of continuations of a bandit in state iii, AiS=E[1+a+⋯+aTiS−1]A_i^S = \mathbb{E}[1 + a + \cdots + a^{T_i^S - 1}]AiS​=E[1+a+⋯+aTiS​−1] is the discounted return time to SSS from i∈Si \in Si∈S, and b(S)b(S)b(S) is the minimal cost ∑i∈SAiSxiπ\sum_{i \in S} A_i^S x_i^\pi∑i∈S​AiS​xiπ​, namely (1−a)−1E[aτ](1-a)^{-1}\mathbb{E}[a^\tau](1−a)−1E[aτ] with τ\tauτ the number of continuations needed to bring every bandit into SSS.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 5.5

For a GCL(1) system whose achievable region is convex, and any reward vector rrr: the achievable region is the polytope

P(A,b)={x∈R+N:∑i∈SAiSxi≥b(S), S⊂E, ∑i∈EAiExi=b(E)};P(A, b) = \Big\{x \in \mathbb{R}_+^N : \sum_{i \in S} A_i^S x_i \ge b(S),\ S \subset E,\ \sum_{i \in E} A_i^E x_i = b(E)\Big\};P(A,b)={x∈R+N​:i∈S∑​AiS​xi​≥b(S), S⊂E, i∈E∑​AiE​xi​=b(E)};

its extreme points are performances of permutation policies; AG(A,r)AG(A, r)AG(A,r) has an output; and for every output the permutation policy in the order it finds, the Gittins index policy, maximizes ∑irixiπ\sum_i r_i x_i^\pi∑i​ri​xiπ​ over all policies.

Milestones

Lemma 5.1 (the SFABP satisfies the conservation laws, with equality for policies giving priority to states outside SSS); the identification on p. 123 of the adaptive greedy indices of a SFABP with the Gittins indices, together with their monotonicity along the order found; Theorem 5.10, the GCL(2) counterpart of the goal for cost minimization.

Significance

Theorem 5.5 is the index theorem in its most general form of this kind: it says nothing about Markov chains, only that performances are expectations, objectives are linear and conservation laws hold, and it delivers both the optimal policy and the algorithm that computes its priorities in polynomial time in the number of job types. It is the theorem behind the index results for branching bandits and Klimov's multi-class queue and behind the suboptimality bounds of Sections 5.5 and 5.7, all of which are calculations on the polytope. Lemma 5.1 and the p. 123 identification are what tie the abstract theorem to the Gittins index: they show that the multi-armed bandit is a GCL(1) system and that the priorities the algorithm produces are the same indices as Chapters 2 to 4 define through stopping times.

None of these is machine-checked. Formalizing Theorem 5.5 puts an LP-duality index theorem on the platform in a form any system can instantiate by verifying its conservation laws; formalizing Lemma 5.1 relates the Bandit Algorithms run law to the single-chain return times, which is the first conservation law on that model; and the p. 123 theorem gives an algorithmic characterization of the Gittins index on finite chains, distinct from the restart and largest-remaining-index characterizations of Chapter 2.

Difficulty

The goal's optimality clause is weak LP duality once one shows that the greedy dual variables are nonpositive except yˉE\bar y_Eyˉ​E​ and satisfy the dual constraints with equality, which is a finite induction on the stages; the extreme-point clause needs that every vertex of a polyhedron is the unique maximizer of some linear functional, and the region clause that a compact convex set is the convex hull of its extreme points (Krein–Milman in finite dimension, or the polyhedral fact directly). None of this is in Mathlib in the required form. Lemma 5.1 is probabilistic: the lower bound requires the strong Markov property of the continued bandit under an arbitrary past-measurable policy, a pathwise accounting of the discounted periods paid for by each continuation from SSS, and the observation that at most τ\tauτ slots can be spent on bandits that have never been in SSS; the equality for priority policies requires that these policies use exactly those slots first and then tile the future with return excursions, and the product form of b(S)b(S)b(S) requires independence of the bandits' process-time trajectories under the run law, which is built decision time by decision time rather than as a product. The p. 123 theorem is the computation (5.13) to (5.14) combined with the optimal-stopping characterization of Chapter 2 for the stop sets {i1,…,ik−2}\{i_1, \dots, i_{k-2}\}{i1​,…,ik−2​}, which lie between {ν<ν(ik−1)}\{\nu < \nu(i_{k-1})\}{ν<ν(ik−1​)} and {ν≤ν(ik−1)}\{\nu \le \nu(i_{k-1})\}{ν≤ν(ik−1​)}; ties make the induction delicate, and the statement is claimed for every tie-breaking.

Formalization scope

GCL(1) and GCL(2) systems are structures over an arbitrary policy type: performance, base function, matrix, permutation policies and the three laws are fields, so the theorems are statements about finite-dimensional data and the platform's proof needs no probability. The adaptive greedy algorithm is specified relationally, as the set of its possible outputs with arbitrary tie-breaking, and the conclusion holds for each of them; existence of an output is asserted separately. The optimality clause is stated as a comparison with every policy rather than as a real supremum. The hypothesis that the achievable region is convex is explicit: the book's argument from extreme points to the whole polytope uses randomization of policies, and without it the region of a system with only its permutation policies is finite. The SFABP items use nnn identical bandits on Fin N in the Bandit Algorithms model, the coefficients AiSA_i^SAiS​ through Mission I's stoppedTime at the return time, and b(S)b(S)b(S) in the product form (1−a)−1∏j:kj∉SE[aTkjS](1-a)^{-1}\prod_{j : k_j \notin S}\mathbb{E}[a^{T^S_{k_j}}](1−a)−1∏j:kj​∈/S​E[aTkj​S​], which is the minimal cost the argument on p. 120 establishes; the book prints a sum, which is 000 when all bandits start in SSS where the minimal cost is 1/(1−a)1/(1-a)1/(1−a). Discount factors are in (0,1)(0, 1)(0,1) throughout.

Trivializing readings are excluded: AiS>0A_i^S > 0AiS​>0 for i∈Si \in Si∈S is part of the structure and of Lemma 5.1's conclusion, the polytope equations are over all subsets, and the index clause quantifies over every greedy output. Welcome contributions: the nonpositivity and dual feasibility of the greedy variables, the vertex-exposure lemma for polyhedra, and the product decomposition of the run law of identical bandits.

Selected references

  • J. Gittins, K. Glazebrook, R. Weber, Multi-armed Bandit Allocation Indices, 2nd ed., Wiley, 2011, Chapter 5. doi:10.1002/9780470980033
  • D. Bertsimas, J. Niño-Mora, Conservation laws, extended polymatroids and multiarmed bandit problems; a polyhedral approach to indexable systems, Mathematics of Operations Research 21(2), 1996. doi:10.1287/moor.21.2.257
  • P. Tsoucas, The region of achievable performance in a model of Klimov, IBM Research Report RC16543, 1991.
  • E. G. Coffman, I. Mitrani, A characterization of waiting time performance realizable by single-server queues, Operations Research 28(3), 1980. doi:10.1287/opre.28.3.810
  • K. D. Glazebrook, R. Garbe, Almost optimal policies for stochastic systems which almost satisfy conservation laws, Annals of Operations Research 92, 1999. doi:10.1023/A:1018992306696
  • T. Lattimore, C. Szepesvári, Bandit Algorithms, Cambridge University Press, 2020, Chapter 35. doi:10.1017/9781108571401
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Algorithmic Game TheoryBandit AlgorithmsMachine Learning+1·Captain: naimengye

Introduction to Multi-Armed Bandits XI: Bandits and Agents, Incentivized Exploration via Hidden ExplorationTextbook

Motivation

A recommendation system learns from the users it serves: the diner who tries a restaurant produces the review the next diner reads. Each user would rather exploit what is already known than explore for the benefit of those who come later, so a population of self-interested agents under-explores, and an alternative that looks bad on sparse early evidence may never be tried again even when it is the best. Chapter 11 of Slivkins, Introduction to Multi-Armed Bandits (arXiv:1904.07272), treats incentivized exploration: a principal who cannot force the agents but can recommend, and who, because it aggregates what earlier agents observed, knows more than any one of them. The question is whether recommendations alone can induce enough exploration to learn as fast as an ordinary bandit algorithm. The model is that of Kremer, Mansour and Perry (JPE 2014) and the results are those of Mansour, Slivkins and Syrgkanis (EC 2015, Operations Research 2020), specialized to two arms; the single-round problem is Bayesian persuasion in the sense of Kamenica and Gentzkow (AER 2011).

Setting

There are KKK arms and TTT rounds. A mean reward vector μ∈[0,1]K\mu \in [0,1]^Kμ∈[0,1]K is drawn from a known prior PPP, and each pull of arm aaa yields a reward drawn from a known family DμaD_{\mu_a}Dμa​​ with mean μa\mu_aμa​. In round ttt the principal recommends an arm rect\mathrm{rec}_trect​; agent ttt, who knows the prior, the family, the algorithm and the round but not the past, sees only rect\mathrm{rec}_trect​, chooses ata_tat​, collects rt∼Dμatr_t \sim D_{\mu_{a_t}}rt​∼Dμat​​​ and leaves; the principal observes (at,rt)(a_t, r_t)(at​,rt​). The chapter works with two arms, ordered so that the prior means satisfy μ10≥μ20\mu^0_1 \ge \mu^0_2μ10​≥μ20​, with a prior of finite support and finitely many reward values.

An algorithm is Bayesian incentive-compatible (BIC, Definition 11.4) if following its recommendation is in every agent's interest given what the agent knows: for every round ttt and arms a≠a′a \ne a'a=a′ with Pr⁡[rect=a,Et−1]>0\Pr[\mathrm{rec}_t = a, E_{t-1}] > 0Pr[rect​=a,Et−1​]>0,

E[μa−μa′∣rect=a, Et−1]≥0,(11.1)\mathbb{E}[\mu_a - \mu_{a'} \mid \mathrm{rec}_t = a,\ E_{t-1}] \ge 0, \tag{11.1}E[μa​−μa′​∣rect​=a, Et−1​]≥0,(11.1)

where Et−1E_{t-1}Et−1​ is the event that all previous agents complied. A BIC algorithm is then an ordinary bandit algorithm whose recommendations are followed, and the run has the law of the Bayesian bandit of Chapter 3. Two contrasting policies frame the chapter. GREEDY reveals the history and lets agents exploit, at∈arg⁡max⁡aE[μa∣Ht]a_t \in \arg\max_a \mathbb{E}[\mu_a \mid H_t]at​∈argmaxa​E[μa​∣Ht​] (11.2); it is BIC and it fails. HiddenExploration (Algorithm 11.1) hides a little exploration in a lot of exploitation: on a signal sig\mathrm{sig}sig, with probability ε\varepsilonε it recommends a target arm atrg(sig)a_{\mathrm{trg}}(\mathrm{sig})atrg​(sig), otherwise the arm maximizing E[μa∣sig]\mathbb{E}[\mu_a \mid \mathrm{sig}]E[μa​∣sig], ties to arm 1. Its posterior gap is G=E[μ2−μ1∣sig]G = \mathbb{E}[\mu_2 - \mu_1 \mid \mathrm{sig}]G=E[μ2​−μ1​∣sig]. RepeatedHE (Algorithm 11.2) runs it round after round with an arbitrary bandit algorithm ALG\mathrm{ALG}ALG as the target: N0N_0N0​ initial rounds recommend arm 1; afterwards, with probability ε\varepsilonε the round is an exploration round in which ALG\mathrm{ALG}ALG chooses (and is fed the reward), and otherwise the exploitation branch recommends min⁡arg⁡max⁡aE[μa∣St]\min\arg\max_a \mathbb{E}[\mu_a \mid S_t]minargmaxa​E[μa​∣St​], where StS_tSt​ is the data of all exploration rounds so far (11.10). The quantity that governs everything is G1,n=E[μ2−μ1∣S1,n]G_{1,n} = \mathbb{E}[\mu_2 - \mu_1 \mid S_{1,n}]G1,n​=E[μ2​−μ1​∣S1,n​] (11.11), the posterior gap after nnn samples of arm 1, and Property (11.12), that Pr⁡[G1,n>0]>0\Pr[G_{1,n} > 0] > 0Pr[G1,n​>0]>0 for some nnn: arm 2 can appear better after enough samples of arm 1.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 11.15

RepeatedHE with exploration probability ε>0\varepsilon > 0ε>0 and N0N_0N0​ initial samples of arm 1 is BIC as long as

ε<13 E[G⋅1{G>0}],G=GN0+1=E[μ2−μ1∣S1,N0],\varepsilon < \tfrac13\,\mathbb{E}\big[G \cdot \mathbf 1\{G > 0\}\big], \qquad G = G_{N_0+1} = \mathbb{E}[\mu_2 - \mu_1 \mid S_{1,N_0}],ε<31​E[G⋅1{G>0}],G=GN0​+1​=E[μ2​−μ1​∣S1,N0​​],

for any bandit algorithm ALG\mathrm{ALG}ALG and any horizon. The threshold depends on the prior alone.

Milestones

Theorem 11.7 (GREEDY never chooses arm 2 with probability at least μ10−μ20\mu^0_1 - \mu^0_2μ10​−μ20​) and Corollary 11.8 (linear Bayesian regret of GREEDY under independent priors); Lemma 11.10 (HiddenExploration is BIC when ε≤13E[G1{G>0}]\varepsilon \le \frac13\mathbb{E}[G\mathbf 1\{G > 0\}]ε≤31​E[G1{G>0}]) with Claim 11.12 (the arm-2 side of the constraint suffices); Corollary 11.14 (RepeatedHE is BIC under the round-by-round condition); Theorem 11.19 (without Property (11.12) no BIC algorithm ever plays arm 2, ties to arm 1).

Significance

The results say when exploration can be incentivized at all and how. Theorem 11.7 shows that revealing everything is not a solution: the greedy dynamics gets stuck on arm 1 with a probability that does not shrink with TTT, and Corollary 11.8 turns that into Ω(T)\Omega(T)Ω(T) Bayesian regret. Theorem 11.15 shows that a recommendation-only principal can induce any amount of exploration it wants, with ALG\mathrm{ALG}ALG arbitrary, at a per-round rate ε\varepsilonε fixed by the prior; Theorem 11.17 (stated with a proof sketch, and omitted here) then transfers ALG\mathrm{ALG}ALG's regret to RepeatedHE up to the prior-dependent factors N0N_0N0​ and 1/ε1/\varepsilon1/ε, so O~(T)\tilde O(\sqrt T)O~(T​) regret is attainable subject to incentives. Theorem 11.19 closes the picture: Property (11.12) is necessary as well as sufficient. Together they characterize which priors admit incentivized exploration and give an algorithm that works for all of them.

Nothing of this is machine-checked. The mission adds to the Bayesian layer of mission III (prior, posterior by Bayes' rule, Bayesian regret) the BIC constraint on a joint law, GREEDY as a policy, the single-round HiddenExploration on an abstract finite signal, and the law of RepeatedHE; all of it is reusable for the KKK-arm and the "explore all explorable arms" extensions of the literature review.

Difficulty

Theorem 11.7 is a martingale argument: the posterior gap along the history is a Doob martingale, the first round in which arm 2 is chosen is a bounded stopping time, and optional stopping gives E[Zτ]=μ10−μ20\mathbb{E}[Z_\tau] = \mu^0_1 - \mu^0_2E[Zτ​]=μ10​−μ20​; all of this has to be set up on the joint law of (μ,HT)(\mu, H_T)(μ,HT​) of mission III, where the posterior is defined by Bayes' rule and the identification with a conditional expectation is itself a theorem (posterior_eq_condProb). Lemma 11.10 is the heart of the chapter and is not a computation about rec\mathrm{rec}rec: it works with F(E)=E[G1E]F(E) = \mathbb{E}[G\mathbf 1_E]F(E)=E[G1E​], splits along the two branches, uses that the exploitation branch recommends arm 2 exactly when G>0G > 0G>0, and closes with F(G>0)+F(G<0)=E[μ2−μ1]≤0F(G > 0) + F(G < 0) = \mathbb{E}[\mu_2 - \mu_1] \le 0F(G>0)+F(G<0)=E[μ2​−μ1​]≤0; the only place where the analysis uses that both branches are functions of the signal is the step E[μ2−μ1∣rec=2]=E[G∣rec=2]\mathbb{E}[\mu_2 - \mu_1 \mid \mathrm{rec} = 2] = \mathbb{E}[G \mid \mathrm{rec} = 2]E[μ2​−μ1​∣rec=2]=E[G∣rec=2], and a formalization has to make that step explicit. Theorem 11.15 requires seeing each later round of RepeatedHE as a HiddenExploration with signal StS_tSt​, where ALG\mathrm{ALG}ALG's choice is a randomized function of StS_tSt​, and then the monotonicity of E[Gt1{Gt>0}]\mathbb{E}[G_t\mathbf 1\{G_t > 0\}]E[Gt​1{Gt​>0}] in ttt, a two-line consequence of St+1S_{t+1}St+1​ determining StS_tSt​ that presupposes the posterior given StS_tSt​ is the Bayes posterior of the exploration data alone, which is true because the exploration decisions do not depend on μ\muμ given that data. Corollary 11.8 needs the independence of the event "μ1<1−2α\mu_1 < 1 - 2\alphaμ1​<1−2α and arm 2 is never chosen" from μ2\mu_2μ2​. Theorem 11.19 is an induction in which the inductive hypothesis is a probability-zero statement about all earlier rounds.

Formalization scope

Arms are Fin 2, the book's arm 1 being index 0; rounds are Fin T. The prior is a probability measure on mean vectors supported on a finite set F⊆[0,1]2F \subseteq [0,1]^2F⊆[0,1]2, with μ10≥μ20\mu^0_1 \ge \mu^0_2μ10​≥μ20​ as a hypothesis; the reward family is mission III's RewardFamily (finitely many values, mean ν\nuν for ν∈[0,1]\nu \in [0,1]ν∈[0,1]). BIC is defined on a joint law of (μ,record)(\mu, \text{record})(μ,record) of the run in which every agent complies, with the recommendation of each round read off the record; the compliance event Et−1E_{t-1}Et−1​ of (11.1) is the sure event of that law, which is the standard reading of "the agents believe all previous agents complied". For a bandit policy the law is mission III's jointMeasure. Conditional expectations are written as finite sums over FFF, so there are no integrals and no integrability side conditions; a posterior mean off the support is a junk 000 that never enters a theorem. GREEDY allows arbitrary tie-breaking; HiddenExploration's exploitation branch breaks ties toward arm 1 as Algorithm 11.1 does; the tie convention of Theorem 11.19 is the strict form of BIC for arm 2. The law of RepeatedHE is an explicit finitely supported measure, μ\muμ and record weighted by the prior times the product of the round probabilities (initial rounds forced to arm 1, then the ε\varepsilonε-coin, ALG\mathrm{ALG}ALG's kernel on its own history, or the exploitation arm, then DμatD_{\mu_{a_t}}Dμat​​​); it is written this way because ALG\mathrm{ALG}ALG is fed a history of variable length. Two conditions are stated exactly as printed: Lemma 11.10 with ε≤13E[G1{G>0}]\varepsilon \le \frac13\mathbb{E}[G\mathbf 1\{G > 0\}]ε≤31​E[G1{G>0}] (non-strict, checked at equality) and Theorem 11.15 with the strict inequality.

Trivializations are excluded: ε>0\varepsilon > 0ε>0 throughout; the BIC condition is asserted only where the recommendation has positive probability, and the sums in it are over the finite support, so an unsatisfiable hypothesis cannot hide in a measure-zero set. Welcome contributions: the optional-stopping argument on jointMeasure, the identification of explPostMean with the conditional expectation given the exploration data, the Bayes-rule algebra behind Lemma 11.10, and the counting lemmas on heRecords.

Selected references

  • A. Slivkins, Introduction to Multi-Armed Bandits, Foundations and Trends in Machine Learning 12(1-2), 2019, Chapter 11. arXiv:1904.07272, doi:10.1561/2200000068
  • I. Kremer, Y. Mansour, M. Perry, Implementing the "Wisdom of the Crowd", Journal of Political Economy 122(5), 2014. doi:10.1086/676597
  • Y. Mansour, A. Slivkins, V. Syrgkanis, Bayesian Incentive-Compatible Bandit Exploration, Operations Research 68(4), 2020 (EC 2015). doi:10.1287/opre.2019.1919
  • E. Kamenica, M. Gentzkow, Bayesian Persuasion, American Economic Review 101(6), 2011. doi:10.1257/aer.101.6.2590
  • M. Sellke, A. Slivkins, The Price of Incentivizing Exploration: A Characterization via Thompson Sampling and Sample Complexity, Operations Research 71(5), 2023. doi:10.1287/opre.2022.2401
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Mechanism Design·Captain: naimengye

The Theory and Practice of Revenue Management IV: AuctionsTextbook

Why a reserve price, and why it does not matter which auction

Airlines selling last seats, Priceline's name-your-own-price, procurement of supply contracts: Chapter 6 of Talluri and van Ryzin's The Theory and Practice of Revenue Management (2004) treats auctions as pricing mechanisms and asks what revenue they earn and how to design them. Its centre is Myerson's (1981) theory for independent private values: whatever the mechanism, so long as bidders with higher valuations are more likely to win and the lowest type gains nothing, the firm's expected revenue is the expected virtual value ∑iJ(vi)yi(v)\sum_i J(v_i) y_i(v)∑i​J(vi​)yi​(v) of the winners, with J(v)=v−(1−F(v))/f(v)J(v) = v - (1 - F(v))/f(v)J(v)=v−(1−F(v))/f(v) (Theorem 6.1, the revenue equivalence theorem). Maximizing that expression pointwise gives the optimal auction: the standard first- or second-price auction with a reserve price v∗v^*v∗ at the zero of JJJ (Theorem 6.2). This mission formalizes the second-price form of Theorem 6.2 as its goal, with the dominant-strategy and first-price equilibria of the informal analysis, Theorem 6.1, the optimal allocation and Proposition 6.1 on list prices as supporting results.

Setting

NNN customers have i.i.d. valuations on [0,vˉ][0, \bar v][0,vˉ] with a continuously differentiable, strictly increasing distribution FFF and positive density fff (PrivateValues, IsRegular); the joint law is the product measure (joint). A direct-revelation mechanism (Mechanism) maps reported valuations to allocations yi(v)∈{0,1}y_i(v) \in \{0, 1\}yi​(v)∈{0,1}, at most CCC units in total, and payments pi(v)p_i(v)pi​(v). For a report www by customer iii, Pi(w)P_i(w)Pi​(w) is the win probability, Ri(w)R_i(w)Ri​(w) the expected payment and Si(w)=wPi(w)−Ri(w)S_i(w) = w P_i(w) - R_i(w)Si​(w)=wPi​(w)−Ri​(w) the surplus (winProb, expPayment, expSurplus); incentive compatibility, Si(w)≥wPi(w′)−Ri(w′)S_i(w) \ge w P_i(w') - R_i(w')Si​(w)≥wPi​(w′)−Ri​(w′), is the equilibrium condition of the direct mechanism (IsIncentiveCompatible). The chapter's mechanisms are the CCC-unit second-price auction with reserve price rrr (secondPriceReserve: the CCC highest valuations above rrr win and pay the larger of rrr and the highest losing valuation), the list-price mechanism for N≤CN \le CN≤C (listPrice), and the single-unit first-price auction with its equilibrium bid b∗(v)=v−∫0vP(s) ds/P(v)b^*(v) = v - \int_0^v P(s)\,ds / P(v)b∗(v)=v−∫0v​P(s)ds/P(v), P=FN−1P = F^{N-1}P=FN−1 (firstPriceBid).

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 6.2

With JJJ strictly increasing (Assumption 7.2) and v∗v^*v∗ its zero, the CCC-unit second-price auction with reserve price v∗v^*v∗ is a feasible, incentive-compatible mechanism with monotone allocations and zero surplus at zero, and its expected revenue is at least that of every such mechanism: reserve_price_auction_optimal.

Supporting targets

Bidding one's valuation is dominant in the second-price auction (Sect. 6.2.2.1); the bid (6.4) solves the first-order condition (6.3), is a symmetric equilibrium of the first-price auction and shades below the valuation (Sect. 6.2.2.2); Theorem 6.1, revenue equals expected virtual surplus and each expected payment is wPi(w)−∫0wPiw P_i(w) - \int_0^w P_iwPi​(w)−∫0w​Pi​; the pointwise optimal allocation of Sect. 6.2.5; and Proposition 6.1, a list price at v∗v^*v∗ is optimal when N≤CN \le CN≤C.

Proposition 6.2 (asymptotic optimality of list prices, a law-of-large-numbers statement about scaled auctions), the first-price form of Theorem 6.2 with its equilibrium (6.9) stated without proof, and the dynamic, replenishment and network auctions of Sects. 6.3-6.5 (Propositions 6.3-6.11, from Vulcano, van Ryzin and Maglaras and from Cooper and Menich) are not targets of this mission.

Significance

Theorem 6.1 is the tool that lets revenue be computed from allocations alone, which is why the first- and second-price auctions of Examples 6.1-6.3 earn the same (N−1)/(N+1)(N-1)/(N+1)(N−1)/(N+1) and why any dynamic pricing scheme that ends with the same winners earns the same as the optimal auction (Sect. 6.2.6.3). Theorem 6.2 says a firm with private-value customers cannot do better than a standard auction with the right reserve price, and Proposition 6.1 that with enough capacity a list price already does it: auctions are a small-numbers phenomenon. These are the foundations on which the chapter's dynamic auctions and the list-price comparisons of Sects. 6.3-6.4 rest, and Myerson's optimal auction has no machine-checked proof in its multi-unit form.

Difficulty

Theorem 6.1 is an envelope argument in measure-theoretic clothing: incentive compatibility gives the two-sided inequalities of Appendix 6.A, monotonicity of PiP_iPi​ makes SiS_iSi​ convex with derivative PiP_iPi​ almost everywhere, so Si(w)=∫0wPiS_i(w) = \int_0^w P_iSi​(w)=∫0w​Pi​, and then an integration by parts against the density converts ∫(wPi(w)−Si(w))f(w) dw\int (w P_i(w) - S_i(w)) f(w)\,dw∫(wPi​(w)−Si​(w))f(w)dw into ∫J(w)Pi(w)f(w) dw\int J(w) P_i(w) f(w)\,dw∫J(w)Pi​(w)f(w)dw; the win probabilities are integrals over a product measure with one coordinate replaced, and Fubini is needed to return to E[J(vi)yi(v)]\mathbb E[J(v_i) y_i(v)]E[J(vi​)yi​(v)]. The goal then needs the reserve-price auction shown incentive compatible (a dominant-strategy argument on the threshold payment), measurable, monotone and with zero surplus at zero, and the pointwise optimal allocation integrated. The first-price item is calculus on an interval integral with a vanishing denominator at 000 and a monotone comparative-statics argument for the equilibrium inequality.

Formalization scope

Mechanisms are direct-revelation mechanisms on [0,vˉ]N[0, \bar v]^N[0,vˉ]N, as the book reduces to in Sect. 6.2.3.1; expectations over the other customers are integrals over the joint law with customer iii's coordinate overwritten by the report. Payments are assumed bounded on reports in [0,vˉ]N[0, \bar v]^N[0,vˉ]N (not on all of RN\mathbb R^NRN, where the second-price payment is unbounded) and the rules measurable. Ties in the second-price auction are broken by index, a null event, and when every customer wins the losing supremum is 000 so the winner pays the reserve. Theorem 6.2 is stated for the second-price auction; the first-price version with reserve price, whose equilibrium (6.9) the book asserts without proof, is left out and noted. Optimality is over mechanisms satisfying conditions (i) and (ii) of Theorem 6.1 and incentive compatibility, which is the class the book compares against. The virtual value's zero v∗v^*v∗ is a parameter with J(v∗)=0J(v^*) = 0J(v∗)=0 rather than the maximum of (6.8), which under strict monotonicity is the same point.

Selected references

  • K. T. Talluri and G. J. van Ryzin, The Theory and Practice of Revenue Management, Kluwer/Springer, 2004, Chapter 6. https://doi.org/10.1007/b139000
  • R. B. Myerson, Optimal auction design, Mathematics of Operations Research 6(1), 1981. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.6.1.58
  • J. G. Riley and W. F. Samuelson, Optimal auctions, American Economic Review 71(3), 1981. https://www.jstor.org/stable/1802786
  • P. Klemperer, Auction theory: a guide to the literature, Journal of Economic Surveys 13(3), 1999. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-6419.00083
  • W. Vickrey, Counterspeculation, auctions, and competitive sealed tenders, Journal of Finance 16(1), 1961. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1961.tb02789.x
  • E. Maskin and J. Riley, Optimal multi-unit auctions, in The Economics of Missing Markets, Information, and Games, Oxford University Press, 1989.
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OptimizationProbability·Captain: naimengye

Inventory Control VIII: The Clark-Scarf Decomposition for a Serial SystemTextbook

Safety stock in a chain

Chapter 10 of Axsäter's Inventory Control turns to reorder points and safety stocks in multi-echelon systems, where the installations cannot be treated separately: a large stock downstream lets an upstream site run lean, and a long upstream lead-time argues for stock at the top. The best-known exact technique for serial systems is the decomposition of Clark and Scarf (1960), which the book presents in the infinite-horizon form of Federgruen and Zipkin (1984). It is also where the echelon stock measure comes from. The section's argument is short and self-contained, and its conclusion is a complete description of the optimal policy for a two-level serial system: order-up-to levels at both installations, one of them a newsboy solution, the other the minimizer of a convex function in which upstream shortages appear as an induced cost. It is the capstone of Chapter 10.

Setting

Installation 1 faces normally distributed period demand with mean μ\muμ and standard deviation σ\sigmaσ, independent across periods, so the demand over nnn periods, D(n)D(n)D(n), is normal with mean nμn\munμ and standard deviation n σ\sqrt n\,\sigman​σ. Installation 1 replenishes from installation 2 with lead-time L1L_1L1​ periods; installation 2 replenishes from an outside supplier with infinite supply and lead-time L2L_2L2​. Demand that cannot be met is backordered. Costs per unit and period are echelon holding costs e1,e2≥0e_1, e_2 \ge 0e1​,e2​≥0, so the installation holding costs are h1=e1+e2h_1 = e_1 + e_2h1​=e1​+e2​ and h2=e2h_2 = e_2h2​=e2​, and a shortage cost b1b_1b1​ at installation 1; there are no ordering costs. Events in a period occur in the order: installation 2 orders, its delivery arrives, installation 1 orders, its delivery arrives, demand, cost evaluation.

Consider an arbitrary period ttt. After ordering, installation 2 has an echelon inventory position y2y_2y2​, and by the standard argument its echelon stock in period t+L2t + L_2t+L2​ is y2−D(L2)y_2 - D(L_2)y2​−D(L2​). Installation 1 then orders, realizing an echelon position y1y_1y1​ that cannot exceed what is available: y1≤y2−D(L2)y_1 \le y_2 - D(L_2)y1​≤y2​−D(L2​) (Eq. 10.1). Its inventory level after the demand in period t+L2+L1t + L_2 + L_1t+L2​+L1​ is y1−D(L1+1)y_1 - D(L_1+1)y1​−D(L1​+1). The expected period costs are C2=h2 E(y2−D(L2)−y1)C_2 = h_2\,\mathbb{E}(y_2 - D(L_2) - y_1)C2​=h2​E(y2​−D(L2​)−y1​) at installation 2 and C1=h1 E(y1−D(L1+1))++b1 E(y1−D(L1+1))−C_1 = h_1\,\mathbb{E}(y_1 - D(L_1+1))^{+} + b_1\,\mathbb{E}(y_1 - D(L_1+1))^{-}C1​=h1​E(y1​−D(L1​+1))++b1​E(y1​−D(L1​+1))− at installation 1, and the book reallocates the term −h2y1-h_2y_1−h2​y1​ to obtain

C~2(y2)=h2(y2−μ2′),C~1(y1)=e1y1−h1μ1′′+(h1+b1) E(y1−D(L1+1))−,\tilde C_2(y_2) = h_2(y_2 - \mu_2'), \qquad \tilde C_1(y_1) = e_1y_1 - h_1\mu_1'' + (h_1 + b_1)\,\mathbb{E}\big(y_1 - D(L_1+1)\big)^{-},C~2​(y2​)=h2​(y2​−μ2′​),C~1​(y1​)=e1​y1​−h1​μ1′′​+(h1​+b1​)E(y1​−D(L1​+1))−,

with μ2′=L2μ\mu_2' = L_2\muμ2′​=L2​μ and μ1′′=(L1+1)μ\mu_1'' = (L_1+1)\muμ1′′​=(L1​+1)μ. As a function of a free y^1\hat y_1y^​1​, C~1\tilde C_1C~1​ is the newsboy-type function C^1\hat C_1C^1​ of Eq. (10.6), minimized at the level S1=y^1∗S_1 = \hat y_1^{*}S1​=y^​1∗​ given by the fractile equation (10.8). Passing everything available up to S1S_1S1​ to installation 1, y1=min⁡{S1,y2−D(L2)}y_1 = \min\{S_1, y_2 - D(L_2)\}y1​=min{S1​,y2​−D(L2​)}, gives the total cost C^2(y2)\hat C_2(y_2)C^2​(y2​) of Eq. (10.9), whose minimizer S2=y2∗S_2 = y_2^{*}S2​=y2∗​ is the order-up-to level of installation 2.

Formalization targets

Goal — the decomposition

With S1S_1S1​ from (10.8) and S2S_2S2​ a minimizer of C^2\hat C_2C^2​: for every y2y_2y2​ and every allocation rule aaa with a(u)≤y2−ua(u) \le y_2 - ua(u)≤y2​−u and finite expected cost,

C^2(S2)  ≤  E[C~2(y2)+C~1(a(D(L2)))],\hat C_2(S_2) \;\le\; \mathbb{E}\big[\tilde C_2(y_2) + \tilde C_1(a(D(L_2)))\big],C^2​(S2​)≤E[C~2​(y2​)+C~1​(a(D(L2​)))],

and the order-up-to policy (S1,S2)(S_1, S_2)(S1​,S2​) attains C^2(S2)\hat C_2(S_2)C^2​(S2​).

Supporting targets

Eq. (10.3), the stage-1 period cost through the expected backorders; the reallocation (10.4)-(10.5), which leaves the total unchanged; the closed form (10.6) of C^1\hat C_1C^1​ through the loss function GGG; the convexity of C^1\hat C_1C^1​, its derivative (10.7), and the fractile characterization (10.8) of its minimizers; the pointwise rule that min⁡{S1,y2−u}\min\{S_1, y_2 - u\}min{S1​,y2​−u} is the cheapest feasible y1y_1y1​; the identity (10.9); and the convexity of C^2\hat C_2C^2​ (Problem 10.1) with the existence of its minimizer when e2>0e_2 > 0e2​>0.

Significance

The result itself. The decomposition reduces a two-dimensional stochastic control problem to two one-dimensional convex problems solved in sequence, from downstream to upstream, and it identifies the optimal policy class. The downstream level S1S_1S1​ is a newsboy solution with overage cost e1e_1e1​, the value added, and underage cost e2+b1e_2 + b_1e2​+b1​, and it is independent of the upstream installation altogether; the upstream level S2S_2S2​ sees the downstream installation only through the induced shortage cost, the last term of (10.9). The book notes the extensions the argument admits, to more echelons, to batch ordering at the top, and, via Rosling's equivalence, to assembly systems, and its Sect. 10.1.2 adapts it, now only approximately, to distribution systems under the balance assumption. Example 10.1 shows the typical outcome: the optimal average stock at the upstream installation is slightly negative.

Formalizing it. The section's mathematics is a chain of expectations under Gaussian laws and two convexity arguments. Formalizing it fixes what "optimal" means, a per-period comparison against every allocation rule, and separates the two convexity claims the book makes in one clause each. Nothing here is open; no statement has a machine-checked proof yet.

Difficulty

The pointwise allocation rule and the newsboy fractile are the same arguments as in the newsboy mission. The two places where work is needed are the identity (10.9), an expectation of a piecewise function split at u=y2−S1u = y_2 - S_1u=y2​−S1​, and the convexity of C^2\hat C_2C^2​, which requires seeing that x↦C^1(min⁡{S1,x})x \mapsto \hat C_1(\min\{S_1, x\})x↦C^1​(min{S1​,x}) is convex precisely because S1S_1S1​ is a minimizer of the convex C^1\hat C_1C^1​ (for any other cut-off the function is not convex), and that convexity is preserved by integrating against the law of D(L2)D(L_2)D(L2​), which needs the integrability of the linearly growing C^1\hat C_1C^1​. Existence of S2S_2S2​ then follows from the growth of C^2\hat C_2C^2​ at both ends, which comes from the asymptotics of the loss function: G(z)→0G(z) \to 0G(z)→0 as z→∞z \to \inftyz→∞ and G(z)+z→0G(z) + z \to 0G(z)+z→0 as z→−∞z \to -\inftyz→−∞.

Formalization scope

D(n)D(n)D(n) is csDemand mu sigma n, the Gaussian law newsboyDemand (n μ) (√n σ) from the newsboy mission, so the loss function GGG and its closed form are reused as references. The costs are parametrized by e1,e2,b1e_1, e_2, b_1e1​,e2​,b1​ with h1=e1+e2h_1 = e_1 + e_2h1​=e1​+e2​ and h2=e2h_2 = e_2h2​=e2​ written out; C~1\tilde C_1C~1​, C~2\tilde C_2C~2​, the pre-reallocation period cost and C^2\hat C_2C^2​ are Bochner integrals against these laws. Every statement assumes σ>0\sigma > 0σ>0; the goal and the convexity statements assume e1,e2≥0e_1, e_2 \ge 0e1​,e2​≥0 and b1>0b_1 > 0b1​>0, the book's cost signs. L2=0L_2 = 0L2​=0 is allowed and makes D(L2)D(L_2)D(L2​) a point mass, which is the setting of the book's Problem 10.2.

S1S_1S1​ enters as any solution of the fractile equation (10.8) and S2S_2S2​ as any minimizer of C^2\hat C_2C^2​; the other items show that both exist when e1,e2>0e_1, e_2 > 0e1​,e2​>0. When e1=0e_1 = 0e1​=0 the fractile is 111, no S1S_1S1​ exists, and the goal is vacuous, which is faithful: the book observes that then S1→∞S_1 \to \inftyS1​→∞ and installation 2 never carries stock. Symmetrically, when e2=0e_2 = 0e2​=0 and L2≥1L_2 \ge 1L2​≥1, C^2\hat C_2C^2​ decreases towards its infimum without attaining it, so no S2S_2S2​ exists and the goal is again vacuous: with free upstream holding the optimal y2y_2y2​ is unbounded. Allocation rules are arbitrary functions of the realized D(L2)D(L_2)D(L2​) with an integrability hypothesis; without it Lean's integral of a non-integrable cost would be 000 and could undercut C^2(S2)\hat C_2(S_2)C^2​(S2​), which is negative in Example 10.1's stage-1 term.

What is not modelled is the infinite-horizon dynamic problem: the book's optimality claim is made period by period, and the passage to the stationary policy rests on the remark that the outside supplier has infinite supply, so the same y2y_2y2​ can be chosen in every period. The definitions are reusable for the three-echelon extension and for the distribution system of Sect. 10.1.2; contributions formalizing Problem 10.2 (L2=0L_2 = 0L2​=0) as a first step are welcome.

Selected references

  • Sven Axsäter, Inventory Control, 3rd edition, International Series in Operations Research & Management Science 225, Springer, 2015, Sect. 10.1.1. DOI 10.1007/978-3-319-15729-0
  • Andrew J. Clark and Herbert Scarf, Optimal Policies for a Multi-Echelon Inventory Problem, Management Science 6(4), 1960, pp. 475-490. DOI 10.1287/mnsc.6.4.475
  • Awi Federgruen and Paul Zipkin, Computational Issues in an Infinite-Horizon, Multiechelon Inventory Model, Operations Research 32(4), 1984, pp. 818-836. DOI 10.1287/opre.32.4.818
  • Kaj Rosling, Optimal Inventory Policies for Assembly Systems under Random Demands, Operations Research 37(4), 1989, pp. 565-579. DOI 10.1287/opre.37.4.565
  • Geert-Jan van Houtum, Karl Inderfurth and Willem H. M. Zijm, Materials Coordination in Stochastic Multi-Echelon Systems, European Journal of Operational Research 95(1), 1996, pp. 1-23. DOI 10.1016/0377-2217(96)00080-8
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Fundamentals of Supply Chain Theory VI: Pooling and FlexibilityTextbook

Pooling as a design principle

A firm that holds inventory in five warehouses needs more safety stock than one that holds the same inventory in one warehouse, because the demands of five regions do not all run high at once. Eppen (1979) made this precise for a multi-location newsvendor and gave it its name, the risk-pooling effect. Chapter 7 of Snyder and Shen's Fundamentals of Supply Chain Theory (2019) follows the same idea through three settings in which pooling happens without physical consolidation: two retailers who ship stock to each other after seeing demand (transshipments, after Tagaras 1989), and plants that can each make more than one product (process flexibility, after Jordan and Graves 1995). The chapter's capstone is the theorem of Simchi-Levi and Wei (2012) that, among designs in which every plant makes two products and every product is made at two plants, a single long chain through all of them is best. This mission formalizes the chapter's numbered results, with that theorem as its goal.

Setting

Risk pooling. NNN distribution centers face normally distributed per-period demands Di∼N(μi,σi2)D_i \sim N(\mu_i, \sigma_i^2)Di​∼N(μi​,σi2​) with correlation coefficients ρij\rho_{ij}ρij​, and each runs a base-stock policy with holding cost hhh and backorder cost ppp per unit per period, so its optimal expected cost is the optimal newsvendor cost optNvCost h p D, the infimum over base-stock levels SSS of E[h(S−D)++p(D−S)+]\mathbb{E}[h(S - D)^+ + p(D - S)^+]E[h(S−D)++p(D−S)+]. Merging the centers gives one facing the total demand, normal with mean ∑iμi\sum_i \mu_i∑i​μi​ and variance σ02=∑i∑jσiσjρij\sigma_0^2 = \sum_i \sum_j \sigma_i \sigma_j \rho_{ij}σ02​=∑i​∑j​σi​σj​ρij​ (pooledVariance).

Transshipments. Two retailers i,ji, ji,j with base-stock levels Si,SjS_i, S_jSi​,Sj​ face independent demands. After demand is observed, under complete pooling the retailer with a surplus sends the retailer with a shortage Yji=min⁡{Sj−Dj, Di−Si}Y_{ji} = \min\{S_j - D_j,\ D_i - S_i\}Yji​=min{Sj​−Dj​, Di​−Si​} units (transship), and nothing moves otherwise. The type-1 service level is the probability of no stockout, αi0=Pr⁡[Di≤Si]\alpha^0_i = \Pr[D_i \le S_i]αi0​=Pr[Di​≤Si​] without and αi=Pr⁡[Di−Si≤Yji]\alpha_i = \Pr[D_i - S_i \le Y_{ji}]αi​=Pr[Di​−Si​≤Yji​] with transshipments; the type-2 service level is the fill rate, one minus expected unmet demand over expected demand, βi0\beta^0_iβi0​ and βi\beta_iβi​ likewise.

Process flexibility. A flexibility design on nnn products and nnn plants is a set EEE of (product, plant) pairs, an edge (i,j)(i, j)(i,j) meaning plant jjj can make product iii. Given a demand realization ddd and a common plant capacity CCC, the performance P(d,E)P(d, E)P(d,E) (perf) is the maximum sales obtainable by assigning production along the edges of EEE without exceeding any capacity or demand, the linear program (7.22) to (7.26). A balanced system (BalancedSystem) has equal capacities and an exchangeable demand vector, one whose joint law is invariant under permutations of the products, and [E]=E[P(D,E)][E] = \mathbb{E}[P(D, E)][E]=E[P(D,E)] is the expected performance (expPerf). The named designs are the dedicated design Dn={(i,i)}D_n = \{(i, i)\}Dn​={(i,i)}, the long chain CnC_nCn​ in which plant jjj also makes product j+1j + 1j+1 (and plant nnn makes product 111), the open chain LkL_kLk​ obtained from CkC_kCk​ by deleting the edge (1,k)(1, k)(1,k), and LknL^n_kLkn​, the open chain on the first kkk pairs together with the dedicated edges of the rest. A 2-flexibility design (TwoFlex) is one in which every product has exactly two plants and every plant exactly two products; CnC_nCn​ is one, and so is any union of disjoint shorter chains.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 7.9

For a balanced system of size n≥2n \ge 2n≥2 with exchangeable demand,

Cn∈arg⁡max⁡A∈F2[A],C_n \in \arg\max_{A \in \mathcal{F}_2} [A],Cn​∈argA∈F2​max​[A],

that is, CnC_nCn​ is a 2-flexibility design and [A]≤[Cn][A] \le [C_n][A]≤[Cn​] for every 2-flexibility design AAA. This is long_chain_optimal.

Supporting targets

The chapter's route to the goal: Lemma 7.5, supermodularity of sales in the flexible edges of the long chain for every realization, P(d,E)+P(d,E∖{α,β})≥P(d,E∖{α})+P(d,E∖{β})P(d, E) + P(d, E \setminus \{\alpha, \beta\}) \ge P(d, E \setminus \{\alpha\}) + P(d, E \setminus \{\beta\})P(d,E)+P(d,E∖{α,β})≥P(d,E∖{α})+P(d,E∖{β}) for E⊆CnE \subseteq C_nE⊆Cn​; Corollary 7.6, the same in expectation; Lemma 7.7, the increments [Lk+1n]−[Lkn][L^n_{k+1}] - [L^n_k][Lk+1n​]−[Lkn​] are nondecreasing in kkk, ending with [Cn]−[Lnn][C_n] - [L^n_n][Cn​]−[Lnn​]; and Lemma 7.8, [Cn]=n([Ln]−[Ln−1])[C_n] = n([L_n] - [L_{n-1}])[Cn​]=n([Ln​]−[Ln−1​]).

Risk pooling, Theorem 7.1: gC∗≤gD∗g^*_C \le g^*_DgC∗​≤gD∗​, the optimal cost of the merged center is at most the sum of the optimal costs of the separate ones, with the covariance inequality ∑i∑jσiσjρij≤∑iσi\sqrt{\sum_i\sum_j \sigma_i\sigma_j\rho_{ij}} \le \sum_i \sigma_i∑i​∑j​σi​σj​ρij​​≤∑i​σi​ as a separate lemma.

Transshipments, Theorems 7.2 to 7.4: αi=αi0+∣∂E[Yji]/∂Si∣\alpha_i = \alpha^0_i + |\partial\mathbb{E}[Y_{ji}]/\partial S_i|αi​=αi0​+∣∂E[Yji​]/∂Si​∣, βi=βi0+E[Yji]/E[Di]\beta_i = \beta^0_i + \mathbb{E}[Y_{ji}]/\mathbb{E}[D_i]βi​=βi0​+E[Yji​]/E[Di​], and all four post-transshipment service levels are nondecreasing in SiS_iSi​.

Significance

Theorem 7.9 is the analytical answer to a question that had been settled only by simulation: Jordan and Graves reported that one chain through all plants achieves nearly twice the sales benefit of three short chains with the same number of edges, and Simchi-Levi and Wei proved that no arrangement of the same edge budget does better. It is the justification for the chaining guideline used in automotive and semiconductor capacity planning, and Lemma 7.8, which expresses the long chain through open chains, is what makes the long chain's performance computable by a greedy pass. Theorem 7.1 is the quantitative basis for consolidation decisions and for postponement, since a generic product is pooled inventory. Theorems 7.2 to 7.4 quantify what transshipments buy in service, which is the argument for allowing them despite their cost.

None of these results has a machine-checked proof. The book proves Lemma 7.7, Lemma 7.8 and Theorem 7.9 in full given Lemma 7.5, which it cites to Simchi-Levi and Wei, and omits the proofs of Theorems 7.3 and 7.4 and the identity (7.30) behind Lemma 7.8. Formalizing Lemma 7.5 and (7.30) means formalizing the structure of maximum flows on a cycle, which is reusable for the later results of Simchi-Levi and Wei on the long chain's performance relative to full flexibility and for the multi-echelon flexibility models the chapter cites.

Difficulty

The obvious approach to Theorem 7.9 is to compare CnC_nCn​ with an arbitrary 2-flexibility design directly. Nothing in the definitions supports that: the two designs share no structure beyond their degree sequences. The book's argument instead routes everything through the long chain's own edges. Lemma 7.5 gives supermodularity only for subsets of CnC_nCn​, and the decomposition of an arbitrary 2-flexibility design into disjoint cycles, each a relabeled long chain on a subsystem, is what allows the comparison. A solver must therefore prove that a 2-regular bipartite graph is a disjoint union of even cycles, that exchangeability makes every relabeling of a cycle worth the same as CnjC_{n_j}Cnj​​ on its subsystem, and that the performance of a disjoint union is the sum of the performances of its parts.

Lemma 7.5 itself is where the combinatorics lives. It says that on the cycle CnC_nCn​ the maximum flow is supermodular in the flexible edges, and the proof in Simchi-Levi and Wei goes through the structure of augmenting paths on a cycle. The natural first idea, that supermodularity follows from some general property of maximum flows, is false: maximum flow is not supermodular in arbitrary edge sets, and the lemma is specific to subsets of a single cycle.

Lemma 7.7 is where exchangeability is used, and it is used in a way that is easy to state and tedious to formalize: removing the edge (2,1)(2, 1)(2,1) from Lk+1nL^n_{k+1}Lk+1n​ leaves a design that is LknL^n_kLkn​ only after the pair 111 is moved to the end, so the argument needs the invariance of [E][E][E] under relabeling the products and plants by a common permutation. The book notes that Lemma 7.7, unlike Lemma 7.5, is false realization by realization.

For the transshipment theorems, the book differentiates a density formula by Leibniz's rule. Under the weaker hypothesis stated here, laws without atoms and with finite means, the derivative of E[Yji]\mathbb{E}[Y_{ji}]E[Yji​] in SiS_iSi​ has to be obtained by dominated convergence from the pointwise derivative of a piecewise-linear function whose kinks lie on null sets.

Formalization scope

perf is a supremum over a set of reals, nonempty because y=0y = 0y=0 is feasible when d≥0d \ge 0d≥0 and C≥0C \ge 0C≥0, and bounded by ∑idi\sum_i d_i∑i​di​; the demand is nonnegative for every outcome and the capacity nonnegative in BalancedSystem, and Lemma 7.5 carries these as hypotheses. The supremum is attained, but the definition does not assert it. Expected performance is a Lebesgue integral; the demand is integrable by assumption and P(d,E)P(d, E)P(d,E) is 111-Lipschitz in ddd, so the integrand is integrable, and a solver must prove this measurability rather than assume it.

Exchangeability is the equality of the laws of (Dσ(i))i(D_{\sigma(i)})_i(Dσ(i)​)i​ and (Di)i(D_i)_i(Di​)i​ for every permutation σ\sigmaσ. Designs are finite sets of pairs of Fin n; the chains are defined with finRotate, so indices wrap modulo nnn and the closing edge of CnC_nCn​ is (1,n)(1, n)(1,n) in the book's numbering, which is the edge its proofs and Figure 7.3(c) use. Lemma 7.8 involves open chains on subsystems of sizes nnn and n−1n - 1n−1; these are designs on Fin k evaluated on the first kkk coordinates of the demand (subDemand, subPerf).

Theorem 7.1 states the optimal costs as infima of the newsvendor cost over all base-stock levels, on Mathlib's gaussianReal; a nonpositive pooled variance gives a degenerate law, for which the inequality still holds, so the statement is not trivialized by that convention. The transshipment theorems take the two demand laws as probability measures on R\mathbb{R}R with no atoms (Theorem 7.2) and finite, positive means; the quantity YjiY_{ji}Yji​ is defined for all outcomes and the service levels are probabilities and expectations under the product law.

The definition module is shared by all eleven items. Beyond the milestones, formalizing the identity (7.30) as its own lemma and the disjoint-union additivity of perf would be natural contributions.

Selected references

  • L. V. Snyder and Z.-J. M. Shen, Fundamentals of Supply Chain Theory, 2nd ed., Wiley, 2019, Chapter 7. https://doi.org/10.1002/9781119584445
  • G. D. Eppen, Effects of centralization on expected costs in a multi-location newsboy problem, Management Science 25(5), 1979. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.25.5.498
  • G. Tagaras, Effects of pooling on the optimization and service levels of two-location inventory systems, IIE Transactions 21(3), 1989. https://doi.org/10.1080/07408178908966208
  • W. C. Jordan and S. C. Graves, Principles on the benefits of manufacturing process flexibility, Management Science 41(4), 1995. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.41.4.577
  • D. Simchi-Levi and Y. Wei, Understanding the performance of the long chain and sparse designs in process flexibility, Operations Research 60(5), 2012. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.1120.1082
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Fundamentals of Supply Chain Theory V: The Bullwhip EffectTextbook

Why orders swing more than sales

Procter & Gamble observed in the 1990s that the orders its distributors placed for diapers were far more variable than the retail sales of diapers, and that its own orders to suppliers were more variable still, although the end demand for diapers is about as stable as demand gets. The phenomenon, a growing amplification of variability as one moves upstream in a supply chain, is the bullwhip effect. Lee, Padmanabhan and Whang (1997) argued that it is not a symptom of irrational behaviour: four rational responses of an inventory manager to their own environment each produce it. Chapter 13 of Snyder and Shen's Fundamentals of Supply Chain Theory (2019) makes three of the four quantitative, following Chen, Drezner, Ryan and Simchi-Levi (2000) for demand signal processing, Lee et al. for the rationing game, and Cachon (1999) for order batching. This mission formalizes those three models and the theorems the chapter proves about them.

Setting

Demand signal processing. A retailer faces a demand process DtD_tDt​, t∈Zt \in \mathbb{Z}t∈Z, that follows the stationary first-order autoregressive model

Dt=d+ρDt−1+ϵt,D_t = d + \rho D_{t-1} + \epsilon_t,Dt​=d+ρDt−1​+ϵt​,

with a constant d≥0d \ge 0d≥0, a correlation constant −1<ρ<1-1 < \rho < 1−1<ρ<1, and errors ϵt\epsilon_tϵt​ that are independent N(0,σ2)N(0, \sigma^2)N(0,σ2) variables, each independent of the demands before period ttt. In steady state every DtD_tDt​ has the law N(d/(1−ρ), σ2/(1−ρ2))N\big(d/(1-\rho),\ \sigma^2/(1-\rho^2)\big)N(d/(1−ρ), σ2/(1−ρ2)). The retailer replenishes with a lead time of LLL periods under a base-stock policy but does not know the demand parameters, so it estimates the lead-time demand from a moving average of the previous m≥1m \ge 1m≥1 demands:

μ^tL=Lm∑i=1mDt−i,σ^etL=C1m∑i=1met−i2,et=Dt−μ^t1,\hat\mu^L_t = \frac{L}{m}\sum_{i=1}^m D_{t-i}, \qquad \hat\sigma^L_{et} = C\sqrt{\frac{1}{m}\sum_{i=1}^m e_{t-i}^2}, \qquad e_t = D_t - \hat\mu^1_t,μ^​tL​=mL​i=1∑m​Dt−i​,σ^etL​=Cm1​i=1∑m​et−i2​​,et​=Dt​−μ^​t1​,

and sets the base-stock level St=μ^tL+zασ^etLS_t = \hat\mu^L_t + z_\alpha \hat\sigma^L_{et}St​=μ^​tL​+zα​σ^etL​, where zαz_\alphazα​ is a safety factor. The book writes the constant in σ^etL\hat\sigma^L_{et}σ^etL​ as CLρC_{L\rho}CLρ​ and does not give its form; here it is a free parameter CCC. Each period the retailer orders Qt=St−St−1+Dt−1Q_t = S_t - S_{t-1} + D_{t-1}Qt​=St​−St−1​+Dt−1​, which may be negative. In Lean the process is the structure AR1Demand, whose fields are the parameters, the errors, the demands, the recursion, the independence properties and the stationary law; muHat, err, sigmaHat, baseStock and order are the five quantities above.

Order batching. NNN retailers face independent N(μ,σ2)N(\mu, \sigma^2)N(μ,σ2) demands in every period and each orders once every R≥1R \ge 1R≥1 periods, the order being its demand over the previous RRR periods. The supplier's order in a given period is the total ordered by the retailers whose ordering day falls in that period. Three patterns are compared: random ordering, in which each retailer's day is uniform over the RRR days, so the number XXX of retailers ordering on a given day is binomial(N,1/R)(N, 1/R)(N,1/R); positively correlated ordering, in which all retailers order on the same day, so X=NX = NX=N with probability 1/R1/R1/R and 000 otherwise; and balanced ordering, in which the retailers are spread as evenly as possible, so with N=MR+kN = MR + kN=MR+k, 0≤k<R0 \le k < R0≤k<R, XXX is M+1M+1M+1 with probability k/Rk/Rk/R and MMM otherwise. The structure BatchOrders P N R mu sigma carries the demands, the ordering count XXX independent of them, and supplierOrder, the sum of the last RRR demands of retailers 1,…,X1, \dots, X1,…,X; each pattern enters a theorem as a hypothesis on the law of XXX.

Rationing game. Two identical retailers face single-period demand with distribution function FFF, holding cost hhh and stockout penalty ppp, so the newsvendor quantity Q∗Q^*Q∗ satisfies F(Q∗)=p/(h+p)F(Q^*) = p/(h+p)F(Q∗)=p/(h+p). With probability rrr the supplier can deliver only A1<2Q∗A_1 < 2Q^*A1​<2Q∗ units in total and allocates them pro rata to the orders, retailer 1 receiving A1Q1/(Q1+Q2)A_1 Q_1/(Q_1 + Q_2)A1​Q1​/(Q1​+Q2​); with probability 1−r1 - r1−r supply is unlimited. Retailer 1's expected cost when the retailers order Q1Q_1Q1​ and Q2Q_2Q2​ is

g1(Q1)=(1−r) nv(Q1)+r nv ⁣(A1Q1Q1+Q2),g_1(Q_1) = (1-r)\,\mathrm{nv}(Q_1) + r\,\mathrm{nv}\!\Big(\frac{A_1 Q_1}{Q_1 + Q_2}\Big),g1​(Q1​)=(1−r)nv(Q1​)+rnv(Q1​+Q2​A1​Q1​​),

with nv\mathrm{nv}nv the newsvendor cost; this is rationingCost.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 13.2, demand signal processing

Var[Qt]Var[Dt]  ≥  1+(2Lm+2L2m2)(1−ρm),\frac{\mathrm{Var}[Q_t]}{\mathrm{Var}[D_t]} \;\ge\; 1 + \Big(\frac{2L}{m} + \frac{2L^2}{m^2}\Big)(1 - \rho^m),Var[Dt​]Var[Qt​]​≥1+(m2L​+m22L2​)(1−ρm),

with equality when zα=0z_\alpha = 0zα​=0. This is bullwhip_signal_processing. The bound exceeds 111 whenever L>0L > 0L>0, whatever the value of ρ\rhoρ: a lead time and a moving-average forecast are enough to produce the effect.

Supporting targets

The chapter's own route to the goal, each a milestone: the steady-state moments (13.2) to (13.4), E[Dt]=d/(1−ρ)\mathbb{E}[D_t] = d/(1-\rho)E[Dt​]=d/(1−ρ), Var[Dt]=σ2/(1−ρ2)\mathrm{Var}[D_t] = \sigma^2/(1-\rho^2)Var[Dt​]=σ2/(1−ρ2) and Cov[Dt,Dt−k]=ρkVar[Dt]\mathrm{Cov}[D_t, D_{t-k}] = \rho^k \mathrm{Var}[D_t]Cov[Dt​,Dt−k​]=ρkVar[Dt​]; the identity Qt=(1+L/m)Dt−1−(L/m)Dt−m−1+zα(σ^etL−σ^e,t−1L)Q_t = (1 + L/m) D_{t-1} - (L/m) D_{t-m-1} + z_\alpha(\hat\sigma^L_{et} - \hat\sigma^L_{e,t-1})Qt​=(1+L/m)Dt−1​−(L/m)Dt−m−1​+zα​(σ^etL​−σ^e,t−1L​); Lemma 13.1, Cov[Dt−i,σ^etL]=0\mathrm{Cov}[D_{t-i}, \hat\sigma^L_{et}] = 0Cov[Dt−i​,σ^etL​]=0 for 1≤i≤m1 \le i \le m1≤i≤m; the vanishing of the cross term (13.12); and the variance of the demand part, (1+(2L/m+2L2/m2)(1−ρm))Var[Dt]\big(1 + (2L/m + 2L^2/m^2)(1 - \rho^m)\big)\mathrm{Var}[D_t](1+(2L/m+2L2/m2)(1−ρm))Var[Dt​].

Order batching, Theorem 13.4: under the three patterns the supplier's order has mean NμN\muNμ and

Var[Qtc]≥Var[Qtr]≥Var[Qtb]≥Nσ2,\mathrm{Var}[Q^c_t] \ge \mathrm{Var}[Q^r_t] \ge \mathrm{Var}[Q^b_t] \ge N\sigma^2,Var[Qtc​]≥Var[Qtr​]≥Var[Qtb​]≥Nσ2,

through the three variance formulas Nσ2+μ2N(R−1)N\sigma^2 + \mu^2 N(R-1)Nσ2+μ2N(R−1), Nσ2+μ2N2(R−1)N\sigma^2 + \mu^2 N^2 (R-1)Nσ2+μ2N2(R−1) and Nσ2+μ2k(R−k)N\sigma^2 + \mu^2 k(R-k)Nσ2+μ2k(R−k).

The rationing game, Theorem 13.3: if Q>0Q > 0Q>0 is a symmetric Nash equilibrium, that is, QQQ minimizes g1g_1g1​ over positive order quantities when the other retailer orders QQQ, then Q>Q∗Q > Q^*Q>Q∗.

Significance

The three theorems are the quantitative core of the chapter. Theorem 13.2 is the single-stage building block that Theorems 13.6 and 13.7 later iterate along a serial chain, giving the product-form and the exponential lower bounds on the amplification at stage kkk; its comparative statics, the bound decreasing in mmm and increasing in LLL, are the basis of the remedies the chapter recommends (shorter lead times, smoother forecasts, sharing point-of-sale data). Theorem 13.4 ranks the ordering patterns and justifies the advice to balance ordering days when batching cannot be avoided. Theorem 13.3 shows that pro-rata rationing alone inflates orders; the book is careful to note that inflated orders are not by themselves inflated variances, and that the variance statement for this model is due to Rong, Shen and Snyder (2017).

None of these results has a machine-checked proof. The book's proofs of Theorems 13.2 and 13.4 are complete but informal, and the proof of Lemma 13.1 is omitted with a citation to Ryan's 1997 thesis; formalizing it requires a self-contained argument. The variance decomposition of QtQ_tQt​ and the conditioning argument for Theorem 13.4 are reusable for the multistage results of Sect. 13.2.5, which are natural follow-up missions on the same definitions.

Difficulty

The obvious computation of Var[Qt]\mathrm{Var}[Q_t]Var[Qt​] expands the order into its demand part and its safety-stock part and hopes the cross term disappears. It does, but not for a reason visible in the formulas: σ^etL\hat\sigma^L_{et}σ^etL​ is a square root of a sum of squares of forecast errors, a nonlinear function of m+mm + mm+m demands, and its covariance with a single demand is zero only because the errors are jointly Gaussian with mean zero and σ^\hat\sigmaσ^ is an even function of them, so the covariance is the expectation of an odd function of a centred Gaussian vector. That is Lemma 13.1, and the vanishing of the cross term needs two further covariances, Cov[Dt−1,σ^e,t−1L]\mathrm{Cov}[D_{t-1}, \hat\sigma^L_{e,t-1}]Cov[Dt−1​,σ^e,t−1L​] and Cov[Dt−m−1,σ^etL]\mathrm{Cov}[D_{t-m-1}, \hat\sigma^L_{et}]Cov[Dt−m−1​,σ^etL​], which the book reduces to the lemma through the recursion (the second reduction divides by ρ\rhoρ) but which hold for every ρ\rhoρ by the same symmetry. A solver must set up the joint Gaussian structure of the demand vector and prove the odd-function argument; nothing in Mathlib does this directly.

The second obstacle is that the moments (13.2) to (13.4) are not assumed but derived: the structure carries the stationary law of each DtD_tDt​ and the independence of ϵt\epsilon_tϵt​ from the past, and the autocovariance ρkVar[Dt]\rho^k \mathrm{Var}[D_t]ρkVar[Dt​] has to be obtained from the recursion by induction on the lag, with integrability supplied by the Gaussian laws.

For Theorem 13.4 the work is the conditioning on XXX: given X=xX = xX=x the supplier's order is a sum of xRxRxR independent normals, so its conditional mean is xRμxR\muxRμ and conditional variance xRσ2xR\sigma^2xRσ2, and the total variance is E[Var[Q∣X]]+Var[E[Q∣X]]\mathbb{E}[\mathrm{Var}[Q \mid X]] + \mathrm{Var}[\mathbb{E}[Q \mid X]]E[Var[Q∣X]]+Var[E[Q∣X]]. The order is defined by a sum over retailers i<Xi < Xi<X, so the independence of XXX from the demands has to be used through the indicator structure rather than through a conditional-expectation library result.

For Theorem 13.3 the argument is a first-order condition. It requires that the newsvendor cost be differentiable with derivative (h+p)F(y)−p(h+p)F(y) - p(h+p)F(y)−p, which holds when FFF is continuous, and that the symmetric equilibrium be an interior minimizer, which is why Q>0Q > 0Q>0 and the minimization over Q1>0Q_1 > 0Q1​>0 are hypotheses.

Formalization scope

Time is indexed by Z\mathbb{Z}Z so that Dt−m−1D_{t-m-1}Dt−m−1​ exists for every ttt. AR1Demand asserts the recursion for every outcome, the independence of the whole error family, the independence of ϵt\epsilon_tϵt​ from (Ds)s<t(D_s)_{s < t}(Ds​)s<t​, and the stationary law of every DtD_tDt​; these are the "steady-state" assumptions the book makes in words. The structure is satisfiable: the stationary Gaussian AR(1) process on a full-measure set of error sequences has all these properties. The constant CLρC_{L\rho}CLρ​ is a free real parameter CCC; no theorem depends on its value.

The goal divides by Var[Dt]\mathrm{Var}[D_t]Var[Dt​], which is σ2/(1−ρ2)>0\sigma^2/(1-\rho^2) > 0σ2/(1−ρ2)>0 under the structure's hypotheses σ>0\sigma > 0σ>0 and ∣ρ∣<1|\rho| < 1∣ρ∣<1, so the ratio is a genuine quotient. Mathlib's ProbabilityTheory.variance and covariance are used; both are the ordinary real quantities for square-integrable variables, which every variable here is, σ^etL\hat\sigma^L_{et}σ^etL​ included.

In BatchOrders the demands are indexed by Fin N × Fin R, the count XXX is a natural-valued random variable bounded by NNN and independent of the demand family, and supplierOrder sums the RRR demands of retailers 1,…,X1, \dots, X1,…,X, the book's "without loss of generality" choice. The laws of XXX are hypotheses on point probabilities P.real {ω | X ω = j}; with R≥1R \ge 1R≥1 each of the three families of hypotheses is satisfiable by a structure with the corresponding law. The subtractions R−1R - 1R−1 and R−kR - kR−k are real.

In the rationing game the demand law is a probability measure on R\mathbb{R}R whose distribution function is continuous and strictly increasing on [0,∞)[0, \infty)[0,∞); the newsvendor loss is assumed integrable at every order quantity. The pro-rata allocation uses Lean's total division, which is never at 000 in the theorem since Q1+Q2>0Q_1 + Q_2 > 0Q1​+Q2​>0.

Beyond the ten milestones, the multistage Theorems 13.6 and 13.7 and the centralized-information bound of Theorem 13.5 are welcome as extensions on the same AR1Demand.

Selected references

  • L. V. Snyder and Z.-J. M. Shen, Fundamentals of Supply Chain Theory, 2nd ed., Wiley, 2019, Chapter 13. https://doi.org/10.1002/9781119584445
  • H. L. Lee, V. Padmanabhan and S. Whang, Information distortion in a supply chain: the bullwhip effect, Management Science 43(4), 1997. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.43.4.546
  • F. Chen, Z. Drezner, J. K. Ryan and D. Simchi-Levi, Quantifying the bullwhip effect in a simple supply chain: the impact of forecasting, lead times, and information, Management Science 46(3), 2000. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.46.3.436.12069
  • G. P. Cachon, Managing supply chain demand variability with scheduled ordering policies, Management Science 45(6), 1999. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.45.6.843
  • Y. Rong, Z.-J. M. Shen and L. V. Snyder, The impact of ordering behavior on order-quantity variability: a study of forward and reverse bullwhip effects, Naval Research Logistics 64(1), 2017. https://doi.org/10.1002/nav.21757
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