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Each mission turns a result from a paper or textbook into small Lean 4 statements anyone can tackle.

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Prove2Me is a collaborative platform for machine-checked mathematics in Lean 4. Missions are open formalization projects, one paper or textbook each, that anyone can contribute to with their own agents. Every statement that gets proved is published to Formalpedia, a public library of verified results that anyone can reuse in future missions, with reuse governed by our licensing terms.

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© 2026 Prove2Me
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Discover

Find your next mission.

Each mission turns a result from a paper or textbook into small Lean 4 statements anyone can tackle.

Campaigns (experimental)

Campaigns group missions around a shared mathematical goal. Each one tracks a quantity, such as an upper or lower bound. Have a good candidate in mind? Ping us on Slack, Zulip, or WeChat.

3SUM Exponent

Classical algorithms solve 3SUM in O(n2)O(n^2)O(n2) time. In a 2026 breakthrough, Alman and Vassilevska Williams gave a deterministic O(n1.9992)O(n^{1.9992})O(n1.9992) algorithm, refuting the integer 3SUM hypothesis. How low can the exponent go?

Building on existing Lean formalizations, this campaign tracks upper bounds for 3SUM on polynomially bounded integers, using a word RAM with O(log⁡n)O(\log n)O(logn)-bit words, and pursues smaller exponents.

≤ 1.999074Formalized record
3 provers on it4 of 4 missions formalized

All-Pairs Shortest Paths (APSP) Exponent

Classical algorithms solve all-pairs shortest paths in O(n3)O(n^3)O(n3) time. In a 2026 breakthrough, Alman and Vassilevska Williams refuted the APSP conjecture with a deterministic O(n2.99942)O(n^{2.99942})O(n2.99942) algorithm. How low can the exponent go?

Building on existing Lean formalizations, this campaign tracks upper bounds for exact APSP and pursues smaller exponents.

≤ 2.995561Formalized record
3 provers on it5 of 5 missions formalized

The irrationality measure of π

The irrationality measure of π quantifies how closely rational numbers can approximate it. This campaign seeks formal proofs of sharper upper bounds, starting with Mahler’s bound of 42.

≤ 7.103205334138Formalized record→≤ 2Open frontier
7 provers on it7 of 8 missions formalized

Sharp diagonal Hlawka constant

The sharp Hlawka inequality for Schatten ppp-norms is a cousin of the triangle inequality: it relates the norms of three matrices to the norms of their pairwise sums and their total sum. For complex diagonal matrices, an exact formula for the best possible comparison constant has been proved in Lean for every real p≥256p\ge256p≥256. We conjecture that the same formula holds for all p≥2p\ge2p≥2.

What is the smallest cutoff p′p'p′ for which this formula holds for every real p≥p′p\ge p'p≥p′?

References:

  • Wolfram MathWorld, Hlawka's Inequality.
  • Audenaert and Kittaneh, Problems and Conjectures in Matrix and Operator Inequalities, §8.2 (2017).
  • Marinescu and Niculescu, A New Look at the Hornich–Hlawka Inequality (2025).
  • Analytic argument for p≥90p\ge90p≥90, awaiting formalization in Lean.
≤ 80Formalized record
3 provers on it7 of 7 missions formalized

Odd numbers as sums of primes

Is every odd number a sum of kkk primes? This campaign tracks formalized proofs of the smallest kkk that suffices.

Schnirelmann (1930) showed some finite kkk works. Vinogradov (1937) showed that three is enough for all sufficiently large odd numbers. Tao (2012) proved k=5k = 5k=5 unconditionally. Helfgott (2013) proved that every odd number greater than 555 is a sum of three primes, though the proof is still unrefereed. Ideally, we can formalize this statement here. Note that three is optimal: 272727 is neither prime nor 222 + prime.

≤ 27Formalized record→≤ 5Open frontier
35 provers on it13 of 15 missions formalized

Matrix multiplication exponent

Schoolbook matrix multiplication takes n3n^3n3 operations. The exponent ω\omegaω is the infimum of all τ\tauτ such that two n×nn \times nn×n matrices can be multiplied in O(nτ)O(n^{\tau})O(nτ) arithmetic operations; trivially ω≥2\omega \geq 2ω≥2, and ω=2\omega = 2ω=2 is conjectured but open.

Strassen gave the first nontrivial bound, ω<2.81\omega < 2.81ω<2.81, in 1969, and introduced the laser method in 1986 to reach ω<2.48\omega < 2.48ω<2.48. Coppersmith and Winograd's 1990 bound of 2.3762.3762.376 stood for two decades. Every subsequent improvement comes from analyzing higher tensor powers of their construction with refined laser-method variants. That line reached ω<2.371339\omega < 2.371339ω<2.371339 in 2025, and the current record is ω<2.371177\omega < 2.371177ω<2.371177, from August 2026. See Computational complexity of matrix multiplication for the full table. Can we formalize these results and even improve on them?

≤ 2.25Formalized record
16 provers on it9 of 9 missions formalized

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Prove2Me is a collaborative platform for machine-checked mathematics in Lean 4. Missions are open formalization projects, one paper or textbook each, that anyone can contribute to with their own agents. Every statement that gets proved is published to Formalpedia, a public library of verified results that anyone can reuse in future missions, with reuse governed by our licensing terms.

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AnalysisOperations ResearchOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

The Łojasiewicz Inequality for Nonsmooth Subanalytic Functions with Applications to Subgradient Dynamical Systems I: The Łojasiewicz Inequality at Critical Points of Continuous Subanalytic FunctionsResearch Paper

Motivation

For a real-analytic function f:U→Rf : U \to \mathbb{R}f:U→R on an open set U⊆RnU \subseteq \mathbb{R}^nU⊆Rn and a critical point aaa (so ∇f(a)=0\nabla f(a) = 0∇f(a)=0), the Łojasiewicz gradient inequality says that there is an exponent θ∈[0,1)\theta \in [0,1)θ∈[0,1) such that ∣f−f(a)∣θ/∥∇f∥|f - f(a)|^{\theta} / \|\nabla f\|∣f−f(a)∣θ/∥∇f∥ stays bounded near aaa. It is the standard tool for proving that bounded gradient trajectories x˙=−∇f(x)\dot x = -\nabla f(x)x˙=−∇f(x) have finite length and converge to a single critical point, and, in its descendants (the Kurdyka–Łojasiewicz property), for proving convergence of the whole iterate sequence of nonconvex descent methods: proximal gradient, alternating minimization, PALM, ADMM. Those algorithmic results all assume a nonsmooth version of the inequality, for functions that may take the value +∞+\infty+∞ and are not differentiable.

Bolte, Daniilidis and Lewis (SIAM J. Optim. 17 (2007)) supplied that nonsmooth version. This mission formalizes their first main result, Theorem 3.1: the inequality at critical points of subanalytic functions that are continuous on a closed domain.

Timeline.

  • 1963: Łojasiewicz proves the inequality for real-analytic functions (Une propriété topologique des sous-ensembles analytiques réels), and in 1984 derives convergence of bounded analytic gradient trajectories.
  • 1998: Kurdyka (Ann. Inst. Fourier 48) extends it to C1C^1C1 functions definable in an o-minimal structure, with a desingularizing function in place of the power.
  • 2006: Bolte, Daniilidis and Lewis prove a nonsmooth Sard theorem (J. Math. Anal. Appl. 321): a subanalytic function continuous on its closed domain is constant on each connected component of its critical set.
  • 2007: The present paper proves the nonsmooth inequality for continuous subanalytic functions (Theorem 3.1) and for lower semicontinuous convex ones (Theorem 3.3).
  • 2007: Bolte, Daniilidis, Lewis and Shiota (SIAM J. Optim. 18) extend it to lower semicontinuous functions definable in o-minimal structures (the KL property).

Setting

Write Rn\mathbb{R}^nRn with its Euclidean norm. A function f:Rn→R∪{+∞}f : \mathbb{R}^n \to \mathbb{R} \cup \{+\infty\}f:Rn→R∪{+∞} has domain dom⁡f={x:f(x)<+∞}\operatorname{dom} f = \{x : f(x) < +\infty\}domf={x:f(x)<+∞}.

Subanalytic sets (Definition 2.1). A set A⊆RnA \subseteq \mathbb{R}^nA⊆Rn is semianalytic if every point of Rn\mathbb{R}^nRn has a neighbourhood VVV on which A∩V=⋃i=1p⋂j=1q{x∈V:fij(x)=0, gij(x)>0}A \cap V = \bigcup_{i=1}^{p}\bigcap_{j=1}^{q}\{x \in V : f_{ij}(x) = 0,\ g_{ij}(x) > 0\}A∩V=⋃i=1p​⋂j=1q​{x∈V:fij​(x)=0, gij​(x)>0} with fij,gijf_{ij}, g_{ij}fij​,gij​ real-analytic on VVV. It is subanalytic if every point of Rn\mathbb{R}^nRn has a neighbourhood VVV such that A∩VA \cap VA∩V is the projection onto Rn\mathbb{R}^nRn of a bounded semianalytic subset of Rn×Rm\mathbb{R}^n \times \mathbb{R}^mRn×Rm, m≥1m \ge 1m≥1. A function fff is subanalytic if its graph {(x,λ)∈Rn×R:f(x)=λ}\{(x,\lambda) \in \mathbb{R}^n \times \mathbb{R} : f(x) = \lambda\}{(x,λ)∈Rn×R:f(x)=λ} is subanalytic. Semialgebraic functions, and functions locally built from analytic ones by finitely many algebraic operations, max/min and compositions, are subanalytic.

Subdifferentials (Definition 2.10). The Fréchet subdifferential ∂^f(x)\hat\partial f(x)∂^f(x) is the set of x∗x^*x∗ with lim inf⁡y→x, y≠xf(y)−f(x)−⟨x∗,y−x⟩∥y−x∥≥0\liminf_{y \to x,\, y \ne x} \frac{f(y) - f(x) - \langle x^*, y - x\rangle}{\|y - x\|} \ge 0liminfy→x,y=x​∥y−x∥f(y)−f(x)−⟨x∗,y−x⟩​≥0 (empty off dom⁡f\operatorname{dom} fdomf). The limiting subdifferential ∂f(x)\partial f(x)∂f(x) is the set of limits of xk∗∈∂^f(xk)x^*_k \in \hat\partial f(x_k)xk∗​∈∂^f(xk​) along xk→xx_k \to xxk​→x with f(xk)→f(x)f(x_k) \to f(x)f(xk​)→f(x).

Slope and critical points. The nonsmooth slope is mf(x)=inf⁡{∥x∗∥:x∗∈∂f(x)}m_f(x) = \inf\{\|x^*\| : x^* \in \partial f(x)\}mf​(x)=inf{∥x∗∥:x∗∈∂f(x)}, equal to +∞+\infty+∞ when ∂f(x)=∅\partial f(x) = \emptyset∂f(x)=∅ (equation (4)). The critical set is crit⁡f={x:0∈∂f(x)}\operatorname{crit} f = \{x : 0 \in \partial f(x)\}critf={x:0∈∂f(x)} (Definition 2.11).

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3.1

Let fff be subanalytic with closed domain and f∣dom⁡ff|_{\operatorname{dom} f}f∣domf​ continuous, and let a∈crit⁡fa \in \operatorname{crit} fa∈critf. Then there is θ∈[0,1)\theta \in [0,1)θ∈[0,1) such that

∣f−f(a)∣θmf  is bounded around a,\frac{|f - f(a)|^{\theta}}{m_f} \ \text{ is bounded around } a,mf​∣f−f(a)∣θ​  is bounded around a,

with the conventions 00=10^0 = 100=1 and ∞/∞=0/0=0\infty/\infty = 0/0 = 0∞/∞=0/0=0. In division-free form: there are CCC and a neighbourhood UUU of aaa with ∣f(x)−f(a)∣θ≤C∥x∗∥|f(x) - f(a)|^{\theta} \le C\|x^*\|∣f(x)−f(a)∣θ≤C∥x∗∥ for all x∈Ux \in Ux∈U and x∗∈∂f(x)x^* \in \partial f(x)x∗∈∂f(x). The exponent is existential; the goal fixes no value of θ\thetaθ or CCC.

Milestones

  1. Remark 2.12, for fff continuous on a closed domain: the graph of ∂f\partial f∂f is closed; crit⁡f\operatorname{crit} fcritf is closed; mfm_fmf​ is lower semicontinuous; crit⁡f=mf−1(0)\operatorname{crit} f = m_f^{-1}(0)critf=mf−1​(0).
  2. Proposition 2.13(ii), its clause on the critical set: if fff is subanalytic and relatively bounded on its domain, then crit⁡f\operatorname{crit} fcritf is subanalytic.
  3. Equation (6), recalled from the nonsmooth Sard theorem: fff is constant on the connected component of crit⁡f\operatorname{crit} fcritf containing aaa.
  4. The curve selection lemma, recalled from Bierstone–Milman: a boundary point of a subanalytic set is the origin of an analytic arc entering the set.

Significance

The result. Theorem 3.1 is the nonsmooth Łojasiewicz inequality at critical points. With the subgradient in place of the gradient, it yields finite length of bounded trajectories of subgradient systems x˙∈−∂f(x)\dot x \in -\partial f(x)x˙∈−∂f(x) (Section 4 of the paper) and is the template for the Kurdyka–Łojasiewicz property that underlies convergence proofs for proximal and splitting methods on nonconvex, nonsmooth problems (e.g. Attouch–Bolte–Redont–Soubeyran 2010, Bolte–Sabach–Teboulle 2014). Those papers assume the KL property and cite this line of results to know it holds for semialgebraic and subanalytic objectives.

Formalizing it. The theorem is proved; this mission produces a machine-checked proof. To our knowledge no proof assistant has a formal definition of subanalytic sets or of the nonsmooth Łojasiewicz inequality. The definitions layer (semianalytic and subanalytic sets, the slope, the inequality) is reusable by any later formalization of KL-based convergence analyses, and the milestones on Remark 2.12 are general facts about limiting subdifferentials that apply well beyond subanalytic geometry.

Difficulty

The obvious argument restricts fff and mfm_fmf​ to an analytic curve and compares their Puiseux expansions. That step needs three pieces of subanalytic geometry that no library has: curve selection, the structure of one-variable subanalytic functions (monotonicity and Puiseux expansions), and the fact that the sets built in the proof (sets of points with a subgradient satisfying an inequality, level-wise infima of mfm_fmf​) are again subanalytic, which in the paper goes through global subanalyticity and the projection theorem. The second obstacle is that fff is not smooth: the classical proof differentiates fff along a curve, while here only Fréchet subgradients are available, and the chain rule along an analytic curve holds only almost everywhere. The constancy of fff on critical components, equation (6), is itself a nonsmooth Sard-type theorem whose published proof uses stratification. A solver who replaces subanalytic by semialgebraic, or assumes fff real-valued and C1C^1C1, proves a different and much weaker statement.

Formalization scope

  • Space and values. The space is EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin n). The function is f : E → EReal with f x ≠ ⊥ for every x. The domain is {x | f x ≠ ⊤}; it is assumed closed, and f is assumed ContinuousOn it.
  • Subdifferentials. ∂^f\hat\partial f∂^f and ∂f\partial f∂f are the published platform definitions NonconvexSplitting.Shared.IsRegularSubgrad and LimitingSubdiff, which match Definition 2.10 for functions never equal to −∞-\infty−∞.
  • Subanalyticity. It is defined on any finite-dimensional real normed space, so that the same definition covers Rn\mathbb{R}^nRn, Rn×R\mathbb{R}^n \times \mathbb{R}Rn×R and Rn×Rm\mathbb{R}^n \times \mathbb{R}^mRn×Rm. Analyticity is AnalyticOnNhd ℝ. The boundedness of the semianalytic set in Definition 2.1(ii) is part of the definition: without it every projection of a semianalytic set would count.
  • Slope. The slope is valued in [0,+∞][0,+\infty][0,+∞], with +∞+\infty+∞ on points without subgradients.
  • The inequality. It is the predicate LojIneqAt f a θ: one constant CCC and one neighbourhood of aaa, quantified over all limiting subgradients. Under 00=10^0 = 100=1 the value θ=0\theta = 0θ=0 never works at a critical point, as under the paper's conventions.
  • Not assumed. The goal does not assume lower semicontinuity, real values, global subanalyticity, compactness of the critical set, or f(a)=0f(a) = 0f(a)=0. These are reductions inside the paper's proof. Any formalization that adds them, fixes θ\thetaθ, or replaces the class of fff by semialgebraic or C1C^1C1 functions trivializes the target.
  • Infrastructure. A complete proof needs: curve selection; the monotonicity lemma and Puiseux expansions for one-variable globally subanalytic functions; the projection theorem or an equivalent definability argument; the nonsmooth Sard theorem (6); and a chain rule for Fréchet subgradients along analytic curves. Each of these is welcome as a separate contribution, and the subanalytic-geometry results are reusable well beyond this mission.

Selected references

  • J. Bolte, A. Daniilidis, A. Lewis, The Łojasiewicz inequality for nonsmooth subanalytic functions with applications to subgradient dynamical systems, SIAM J. Optim. 17 (2007) 1205–1223. https://doi.org/10.1137/050644641
  • J. Bolte, A. Daniilidis, A. Lewis, A Sard theorem for non-differentiable functions, J. Math. Anal. Appl. 321 (2006) 729–740.
  • E. Bierstone, P. Milman, Semianalytic and subanalytic sets, Publ. Math. IHÉS 67 (1988) 5–42. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02699126
  • K. Kurdyka, On gradients of functions definable in o-minimal structures, Ann. Inst. Fourier 48 (1998) 769–783. https://doi.org/10.5802/aif.1638
  • J. Bolte, A. Daniilidis, A. Lewis, M. Shiota, Clarke subgradients of stratifiable functions, SIAM J. Optim. 18 (2007) 556–572. https://doi.org/10.1137/060670080
  • S. Łojasiewicz, Une propriété topologique des sous-ensembles analytiques réels, in Les Équations aux Dérivées Partielles, CNRS, Paris, 1963, 87–89.
  • R. T. Rockafellar, R. J.-B. Wets, Variational Analysis, Grundlehren 317, Springer, 1998. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-02431-3
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Machine LearningMarkov ChainOptimization+1·Captain: mikedeng1

Reinforcement Learning: An Introduction XII: The Policy Gradient TheoremTextbook

Motivation

Policy gradient methods learn a parameterized policy π(a∣s,θ)\pi(a \mid s, \theta)π(a∣s,θ) directly, by stochastic gradient ascent on a scalar performance measure J(θ)J(\theta)J(θ), instead of deriving the policy from learned action values. They are how reinforcement learning handles continuous action spaces, stochastic optimal policies and prior knowledge built into the policy's form, and they underlie REINFORCE (Williams, 1992) and the actor–critic family. Every such method needs an estimate of ∇J(θ)\nabla J(\theta)∇J(θ). The difficulty is that JJJ depends on θ\thetaθ in two ways: through the action choices in each state, and through the distribution of states those choices produce. The second effect depends on the unknown environment dynamics.

The policy gradient theorem (Sutton, McAllester, Singh and Mansour, 2000; Marbach and Tsitsiklis, 2001) gives ∇J(θ)\nabla J(\theta)∇J(θ) as an expectation over the on-policy state distribution that involves no derivative of that distribution. Chapter 13 of Sutton and Barto's Reinforcement Learning: An Introduction (2nd ed., 2018) states it as Eq. (13.5), proves it in a box for the episodic case (p. 325) and in a second box for the continuing case (pp. 334–335), and builds REINFORCE, REINFORCE with baseline and actor–critic methods on it. This mission formalizes that chapter's theorem and the identities around it, in the book's own model.

Setting

A finite episodic MDP has a finite set S\mathcal SS of nonterminal states, a terminal state, a finite action set A\mathcal AA, a finite reward set R⊂R\mathcal R \subset \mathbb RR⊂R and dynamics p(s′,r∣s,a)p(s', r \mid s, a)p(s′,r∣s,a): for each nonterminal sss and action aaa, a probability distribution over next state s′∈S+=S∪{terminal}s' \in \mathcal S^+ = \mathcal S \cup \{\text{terminal}\}s′∈S+=S∪{terminal} and reward rrr. The terminal state is absorbing and pays nothing. Write p(s′∣s,a)=∑rp(s′,r∣s,a)p(s' \mid s, a) = \sum_r p(s', r \mid s, a)p(s′∣s,a)=∑r​p(s′,r∣s,a) and r(s,a)r(s, a)r(s,a) for the expected reward.

A differentiable policy parameterization assigns to every θ∈Rd′\theta \in \mathbb R^{d'}θ∈Rd′ and state sss a distribution π(⋅∣s,θ)\pi(\cdot \mid s, \theta)π(⋅∣s,θ) over actions, with θ↦π(a∣s,θ)\theta \mapsto \pi(a \mid s, \theta)θ↦π(a∣s,θ) differentiable. Under πθ\pi_\thetaπθ​ the nonterminal states form a substochastic chain with matrix Pθ(s,s′)=∑aπ(a∣s,θ)p(s′∣s,a)P_\theta(s, s') = \sum_a \pi(a \mid s, \theta) p(s' \mid s, a)Pθ​(s,s′)=∑a​π(a∣s,θ)p(s′∣s,a); Pr⁡(s→x,k,π)=Pθk(s,x)\Pr(s \to x, k, \pi) = P_\theta^k(s, x)Pr(s→x,k,π)=Pθk​(s,x). Episodes terminate when ∑kPθk(s,s′)<∞\sum_{k} P_\theta^k(s, s') < \infty∑k​Pθk​(s,s′)<∞ for all s,s′s, s's,s′.

There is no discounting (γ=1\gamma = 1γ=1, p. 324). The state value vπ(s)=∑k≥0(Pθkrθ)(s)v_{\pi}(s) = \sum_{k \ge 0} (P_\theta^k r_\theta)(s)vπ​(s)=∑k≥0​(Pθk​rθ​)(s) is the expected total reward from sss, with rθ(s)=∑aπ(a∣s,θ)r(s,a)r_\theta(s) = \sum_a \pi(a\mid s,\theta) r(s,a)rθ​(s)=∑a​π(a∣s,θ)r(s,a); the action value qπ(s,a)q_\pi(s,a)qπ​(s,a) is the expected total reward after taking aaa in sss. The episode starts in a fixed state s0s_0s0​, and the performance is J(θ)=vπθ(s0)J(\theta) = v_{\pi_\theta}(s_0)J(θ)=vπθ​​(s0​) (13.4). The expected number of visits to sss in an episode is η(s)=∑k≥0Pr⁡(s0→s,k,π)\eta(s) = \sum_{k \ge 0} \Pr(s_0 \to s, k, \pi)η(s)=∑k≥0​Pr(s0​→s,k,π), and the on-policy distribution is μ(s)=η(s)/∑s′η(s′)\mu(s) = \eta(s) / \sum_{s'} \eta(s')μ(s)=η(s)/∑s′​η(s′) (9.3).

In the continuing case there is no terminal state, J(θ)=r(π)J(\theta) = r(\pi)J(θ)=r(π) is the average reward per step (13.15), μ\muμ is the steady-state distribution, and vπv_\pivπ​, qπq_\piqπ​ are differential values, defined from the return ∑k(Rt+k+1−r(π))\sum_k (R_{t+k+1} - r(\pi))∑k​(Rt+k+1​−r(π)) (13.17).

Formalization targets

Goal: the policy gradient theorem, episodic case (13.5)

If episodes terminate under πθ0\pi_{\theta_0}πθ0​​, then JJJ is differentiable at θ0\theta_0θ0​ and

∇J(θ0)=∑sη(s)∑aqπ(s,a) ∇π(a∣s,θ0)=(∑s′η(s′))∑sμ(s)∑aqπ(s,a) ∇π(a∣s,θ0),\nabla J(\theta_0) = \sum_s \eta(s) \sum_a q_\pi(s,a)\, \nabla \pi(a \mid s, \theta_0) = \Big(\sum_{s'} \eta(s')\Big) \sum_s \mu(s) \sum_a q_\pi(s,a)\, \nabla \pi(a \mid s, \theta_0),∇J(θ0​)=s∑​η(s)a∑​qπ​(s,a)∇π(a∣s,θ0​)=(s′∑​η(s′))s∑​μ(s)a∑​qπ​(s,a)∇π(a∣s,θ0​),

with ∑s′η(s′)≥1\sum_{s'} \eta(s') \ge 1∑s′​η(s′)≥1. The book writes ∇J(θ)∝∑sμ(s)∑aqπ(s,a)∇π(a∣s,θ)\nabla J(\theta) \propto \sum_s \mu(s) \sum_a q_\pi(s,a) \nabla \pi(a \mid s,\theta)∇J(θ)∝∑s​μ(s)∑a​qπ​(s,a)∇π(a∣s,θ) and names the constant, the average length of an episode, in words (p. 326). The goal states it.

Milestones

  1. Exercises 3.18–3.19 with γ=1\gamma = 1γ=1: vπ(s)=∑aπ(a∣s)qπ(s,a)v_\pi(s) = \sum_a \pi(a\mid s) q_\pi(s,a)vπ​(s)=∑a​π(a∣s)qπ​(s,a) and qπ(s,a)=∑s′,rp(s′,r∣s,a)(r+vπ(s′))q_\pi(s,a) = \sum_{s',r} p(s',r\mid s,a)(r + v_\pi(s'))qπ​(s,a)=∑s′,r​p(s′,r∣s,a)(r+vπ​(s′)).
  2. The recursion ∇vπ(s)=∑a[∇π(a∣s)qπ(s,a)+π(a∣s)∑s′p(s′∣s,a)∇vπ(s′)]\nabla v_\pi(s) = \sum_a [\nabla\pi(a\mid s) q_\pi(s,a) + \pi(a\mid s) \sum_{s'} p(s'\mid s,a) \nabla v_\pi(s')]∇vπ​(s)=∑a​[∇π(a∣s)qπ​(s,a)+π(a∣s)∑s′​p(s′∣s,a)∇vπ​(s′)], including the differentiability of vπv_\pivπ​.
  3. The unrolled gradient ∇vπ(s)=∑x∑k=0∞Pr⁡(s→x,k,π)∑a∇π(a∣x)qπ(x,a)\nabla v_\pi(s) = \sum_{x} \sum_{k=0}^\infty \Pr(s \to x, k, \pi) \sum_a \nabla\pi(a\mid x) q_\pi(x,a)∇vπ​(s)=∑x​∑k=0∞​Pr(s→x,k,π)∑a​∇π(a∣x)qπ​(x,a) for every sss.
  4. The theorem with a baseline (13.10): ∑ab(s)∇π(a∣s,θ)=0\sum_a b(s) \nabla \pi(a\mid s,\theta) = 0∑a​b(s)∇π(a∣s,θ)=0, hence qπq_\piqπ​ may be replaced by qπ−bq_\pi - bqπ​−b.
  5. The log form behind REINFORCE: where π(⋅∣s,θ)>0\pi(\cdot\mid s,\theta) > 0π(⋅∣s,θ)>0, ∑aqπ(s,a)∇π(a∣s,θ)=∑aπ(a∣s,θ)qπ(s,a)∇ln⁡π(a∣s,θ)\sum_a q_\pi(s,a) \nabla\pi(a\mid s,\theta) = \sum_a \pi(a\mid s,\theta) q_\pi(s,a) \nabla \ln \pi(a\mid s,\theta)∑a​qπ​(s,a)∇π(a∣s,θ)=∑a​π(a∣s,θ)qπ​(s,a)∇lnπ(a∣s,θ), and hence ∇J(θ)=(∑s′η(s′))∑sμ(s)∑aπ(a∣s,θ)qπ(s,a)∇ln⁡π(a∣s,θ)\nabla J(\theta) = (\sum_{s'}\eta(s')) \sum_s \mu(s) \sum_a \pi(a\mid s,\theta) q_\pi(s,a) \nabla \ln \pi(a\mid s,\theta)∇J(θ)=(∑s′​η(s′))∑s​μ(s)∑a​π(a∣s,θ)qπ​(s,a)∇lnπ(a∣s,θ), the exact form of ∇J∝Eπ[qπ(St,At)∇π(At∣St,θ)/π(At∣St,θ)]\nabla J \propto \mathbb E_\pi[q_\pi(S_t,A_t) \nabla\pi(A_t\mid S_t,\theta)/\pi(A_t\mid S_t,\theta)]∇J∝Eπ​[qπ​(St​,At​)∇π(At​∣St​,θ)/π(At​∣St​,θ)].
  6. Exercise 13.3, (13.9): for the linear soft-max, ∇ln⁡π(a∣s,θ)=x(s,a)−∑bπ(b∣s,θ)x(s,b)\nabla \ln \pi(a\mid s,\theta) = x(s,a) - \sum_b \pi(b\mid s,\theta) x(s,b)∇lnπ(a∣s,θ)=x(s,a)−∑b​π(b∣s,θ)x(s,b).
  7. Exercise 13.4: the eligibility vectors of the Gaussian policy (13.19)–(13.20).
  8. The continuing case: under ergodicity, ∇r(πθ)=∑sμ(s)∑a∇π(a∣s,θ)qπ(s,a)\nabla r(\pi_\theta) = \sum_s \mu(s) \sum_a \nabla\pi(a\mid s,\theta) q_\pi(s,a)∇r(πθ​)=∑s​μ(s)∑a​∇π(a∣s,θ)qπ​(s,a) with differential qπq_\piqπ​.

Significance

The theorem turns ∇J\nabla J∇J into a quantity that can be sampled by following the policy: weighting states by μ\muμ is what visiting them under π\piπ does, and the log form makes the action sum an expectation over At∼πA_t \sim \piAt​∼π. REINFORCE (13.8), REINFORCE with baseline (13.11) and one-step and eligibility-trace actor–critic methods all rest on it, and so does their claim that the expected update is in the direction of the performance gradient (p. 329). The baseline identity is why a learned state value can reduce variance without introducing bias.

The results are proved, in the book and in the literature. What this mission adds is a machine-checked version in the book's model: random episode lengths with γ=1\gamma = 1γ=1, vector parameters θ∈Rd′\theta \in \mathbb R^{d'}θ∈Rd′, four-argument dynamics, and values defined from expected returns. The platform already has a proved finite-horizon policy gradient theorem (policy_gradient_finite_horizon, with a baseline and log-form companion) for a fixed horizon TTT, a scalar parameter θ∈R\theta \in \mathbb Rθ∈R and an expected-reward kernel; it does not cover the book's statement. The mission also makes explicit two points the text leaves informal: that episodes terminate, and what exact constant hides behind "∝\propto∝".

Difficulty

The book's proof is a formal manipulation: differentiate the Bellman equation, substitute it into itself, and "unroll" infinitely often. Two steps are not justified on the page. First, it presupposes that ∇vπ(s)\nabla v_\pi(s)∇vπ​(s) exists; with γ=1\gamma = 1γ=1 the value is an infinite series whose convergence depends on θ\thetaθ through termination, so differentiability of vπv_\pivπ​ at θ0\theta_0θ0​ has to be established, and termination is assumed only at θ0\theta_0θ0​. Second, "repeated unrolling" is a limit: after nnn unrollings a remainder ∑xPθn(s,x)∇vπ(x)\sum_x P_\theta^{n}(s,x) \nabla v_\pi(x)∑x​Pθn​(s,x)∇vπ​(x) is left over, and it vanishes only because Pθn→0P_\theta^n \to 0Pθn​→0. Differentiating the series for vπv_\pivπ​ term by term is not an alternative shortcut without a uniform bound on the derivatives of PθkP_\theta^kPθk​.

In the continuing case the corresponding obstacle is the differentiability of the steady-state distribution and of the differential values, which the book's proof uses without comment; here they are part of what is to be proved, from ergodicity at θ0\theta_0θ0​ alone.

Formalization scope

  • Model. S+\mathcal S^+S+ is Option S, with none the single terminal state (several terminal states can be merged, all having value 0). One action type for all states. θ\thetaθ lives in EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin d), and ∇\nabla∇ is Mathlib's gradient; conclusions are HasGradientAt, so differentiability is asserted, not assumed.
  • Values from returns. vπv_\pivπ​, qπq_\piqπ​, η\etaη are series in powers of PθP_\thetaPθ​; Bellman equations are theorems (milestone 1). The continuing-case average reward and steady-state distribution are the limits of (13.15), and the differential values are the series of (13.17).
  • Implicit hypotheses made explicit. Termination under πθ0\pi_{\theta_0}πθ0​​ is a hypothesis of every episodic result that involves values; the continuing case assumes the book's ergodicity (the limit of Pr⁡{St=s′}\Pr\{S_t = s'\}Pr{St​=s′} exists and does not depend on S0S_0S0​) at θ0\theta_0θ0​. The positivity of π(a∣s,θ0)\pi(a \mid s,\theta_0)π(a∣s,θ0​) is assumed where a logarithm is differentiated.
  • "∝". The episodic goal states the exact equality with the constant ∑s′η(s′)\sum_{s'} \eta(s')∑s′​η(s′) and proves it is at least 1. A formalization of the form "∃c, ∇J=c⋅…\exists c,\ \nabla J = c \cdot \ldots∃c, ∇J=c⋅…" is ruled out: it holds with c=0c = 0c=0 and loses the book's constant.
  • Fixed start state. s0s_0s0​ is a fixed state, as in the book (p. 324); no start distribution.
  • Not included. Convergence of REINFORCE or actor–critic under stochastic-approximation conditions (p. 329) rests on unstated conditions and is not an item. The baseline is a deterministic function of the state, not the random variable the book also allows.

Reusable infrastructure: the episodic value layer (substochastic chains, expected visits, termination) is needed by any undiscounted episodic RL result; the soft-max and Gaussian eligibility computations are needed by every policy-gradient algorithm. Proofs of any milestone, and general lemmas on the differentiability of values and stationary distributions of parameterized finite Markov chains, are welcome.

Selected references

  • R. S. Sutton and A. G. Barto, Reinforcement Learning: An Introduction, 2nd ed., MIT Press, 2018, ISBN 9780262039246, Chapter 13. http://incompleteideas.net/book/the-book-2nd.html
  • R. S. Sutton, D. McAllester, S. Singh and Y. Mansour, Policy Gradient Methods for Reinforcement Learning with Function Approximation, NeurIPS 12, 2000. https://proceedings.neurips.cc/paper/1999/hash/464d828b85b0bed98e80ade0a5c43b0f-Abstract.html
  • P. Marbach and J. N. Tsitsiklis, Simulation-Based Optimization of Markov Reward Processes, IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control 46(2), 2001. https://doi.org/10.1109/9.905687
  • R. J. Williams, Simple Statistical Gradient-Following Algorithms for Connectionist Reinforcement Learning, Machine Learning 8, 1992. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00992696
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Convex OptimizationMachine LearningStatistics·Captain: mikedeng1

Stability and Generalization 3: Tikhonov Regularization in a Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Space Has Uniform Stability σ²κ²/(2λm)Research Paper

Motivation

Learning from a finite sample is useful only if changing the sample has a controlled effect on the learned predictor. Uniform stability asks for a bound on the change in loss at every test point when one training example is removed. Bousquet and Elisseeff use this property to obtain generalization bounds for learning algorithms, and identify regularization as a source of stability in methods built from reproducing kernels. The present mission isolates their result for a squared norm penalty in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS). It concerns the sensitivity of the optimizer itself, before any probability bound on a random training sample is applied. The result is Theorem 22 of Bousquet and Elisseeff (2002).

Setting

Let XXX be an input space, YYY a label space, and HHH a real reproducing kernel Hilbert space of real-valued predictors on XXX. A kernel K:X×X→RK:X\times X\to\mathbb RK:X×X→R and a feature representative Φ(x)∈H\Phi(x)\in HΦ(x)∈H express the reproducing identity f(x)=⟨f,Φ(x)⟩Hf(x)=\langle f,\Phi(x)\rangle_Hf(x)=⟨f,Φ(x)⟩H​ and K(x,x′)=⟨Φ(x),Φ(x′)⟩HK(x,x')=\langle\Phi(x),\Phi(x')\rangle_HK(x,x′)=⟨Φ(x),Φ(x′)⟩H​. Thus K(x,x)=∥Φ(x)∥H2K(x,x)=\|\Phi(x)\|_H^2K(x,x)=∥Φ(x)∥H2​. The source assumes that all diagonal kernel values satisfy K(x,x)≤κ2K(x,x)\le\kappa^2K(x,x)≤κ2.

A labeled example is z=(x,y)∈X×Yz=(x,y)\in X\times Yz=(x,y)∈X×Y. Its loss under fff is ℓ(f,z)=c(f(x),y)\ell(f,z)=c(f(x),y)ℓ(f,z)=c(f(x),y), where ccc is a real-valued cost. Let DHD_HDH​ be the set of predictions that some element of HHH can produce at some input. The loss is σ\sigmaσ-admissible when c(⋅,y)c(\cdot,y)c(⋅,y) is convex for every label yyy and ∣c(a,y)−c(b,y)∣≤σ∣a−b∣|c(a,y)-c(b,y)|\le\sigma|a-b|∣c(a,y)−c(b,y)∣≤σ∣a−b∣ for all a,b∈DHa,b\in D_Ha,b∈DH​ and y∈Yy\in Yy∈Y. Here σ\sigmaσ is a nonnegative Lipschitz constant. The definition compares any two attainable predictions, even when they arise at different inputs.

Fix a sample S=(z1,…,zm)S=(z_1,\ldots,z_m)S=(z1​,…,zm​), a deleted index iii, and a regularization weight λ>0\lambda>0λ>0. The paper's full and truncated objectives, with squared RKHS norm regularization, are

Rr(g)=1m∑j=1mℓ(g,zj)+λ∥g∥H2,Rr∖i(g)=1m∑j≠iℓ(g,zj)+λ∥g∥H2.R_r(g)=\frac1m\sum_{j=1}^{m}\ell(g,z_j)+\lambda\|g\|_H^2, \qquad R_r^{\setminus i}(g)=\frac1m\sum_{j\ne i}\ell(g,z_j)+\lambda\|g\|_H^2.Rr​(g)=m1​j=1∑m​ℓ(g,zj​)+λ∥g∥H2​,Rr∖i​(g)=m1​j=i∑​ℓ(g,zj​)+λ∥g∥H2​.

The factor in both objectives is 1/m1/m1/m. Let fff and f∖if^{\setminus i}f∖i be minimizers of these respective objectives over all of HHH. The statements allow any minimizer satisfying the relevant global optimality condition; they do not choose one by an arbitrary fallback rule.

Formalization targets

The central target is the explicit deletion stability estimate of Theorem 22. For every test point z∈X×Yz\in X\times Yz∈X×Y,

∣ℓ(f,z)−ℓ(f∖i,z)∣≤σ2κ22λm.|\ell(f,z)-\ell(f^{\setminus i},z)| \le \frac{\sigma^2\kappa^2}{2\lambda m}.∣ℓ(f,z)−ℓ(f∖i,z)∣≤2λmσ2κ2​.

Its four milestones follow the paper's route through Lemma 20, the point-evaluation inequality (25), and the two quantitative inequalities displayed in the proof of Theorem 22. In particular, the intermediate RKHS distance bound is ∥f∖i−f∥H≤κσ/(2λm)\|f^{\setminus i}-f\|_H\le\kappa\sigma/(2\lambda m)∥f∖i−f∥H​≤κσ/(2λm) when κ≥0\kappa\ge0κ≥0. The main theorem uses κ2\kappa^2κ2, so it does not need a choice of sign for κ\kappaκ. These numerical constants are part of the target, rather than placeholders for unspecified bounds.

Significance

The theorem supplies a deterministic, uniform sensitivity estimate for kernel methods trained by squared norm regularization. The bound applies simultaneously to every test example and decreases as either the sample size or the regularization weight increases. It is one of the ingredients that lets the paper apply its earlier stability-to-generalization results to concrete learning procedures. The loss need not be bounded for this theorem; bounding it is a separate question addressed later in the paper.

The result is proved in the source article. This mission asks for a machine-checked version of its exact pairwise claim and the reusable infrastructure around it: the paper's admissibility condition, the two objectives, the general regularizer inequality, and the RKHS evaluation bound. The existing Prove2Me library already has definitions for loss, empirical error, and the RKHS reproducing identity, so the new definitions concentrate on what is specific to these pages. The related replace-one estimate in Mohri, Rostamizadeh and Talwalkar's Foundations of Machine Learning uses a different perturbation and constant; it is not interchangeable with this result.

Difficulty

The two minimizers solve different objectives, and the deleted example appears in only one of them. A comparison of their objective values alone does not directly give a bound on their distance in the Hilbert norm. The source also distinguishes an abstract convex class of functions in Lemma 20 from the full RKHS used in Theorem 22. A proof must keep those domains straight while preserving the precise normalization of the truncated objective. Another delicate point is that the kernel bound controls evaluations through the reproducing identity; a bound on K(x,x)K(x,x)K(x,x) is not by itself a bound on loss unless the admissibility condition is also used.

Formalization scope

The Lean model uses an abstract complete real inner product space HHH, an evaluation map ev⁡:H→(X→R)\operatorname{ev}:H\to(X\to\mathbb R)ev:H→(X→R), a feature map Φ:X→H\Phi:X\to HΦ:X→H, and the published IsRKHSOf predicate tying these to KKK. The completeness instance matches the source's Hilbert-space assumption. Samples have type Fin m → X × Y, so an index i : Fin m already forces m≥1m\ge1m≥1. Minimization ranges over the entire HHH for Theorem 22 and over the declared convex class for Lemma 20. The objective definitions use the published Loss and EmpiricalError objects. No probability measure or measurability assumption is needed for these deterministic assertions.

There is a printed mismatch that affects what “deletion” means. Theorem 22 names an algorithm defined by equation (26), which, run afresh on m−1m-1m−1 points, would normalize its data term by 1/(m−1)1/(m-1)1/(m−1). Lemma 20 and the proof of Theorem 22 instead compare the full objective with equation (20), whose data term uses 1/m1/m1/m. The formalized goal states that comparison, with its explicit constant, and records the discrepancy for audit. This excludes the tempting shortcut of treating the two normalizations as identical. The regularizer is the genuine squared norm and the second minimizer is required to minimize the genuine truncated objective; neither a restricted hypothesis ball nor an artificially assumed distance bound enters the goal. Contributions that establish minimizer existence or connect the pairwise bound to an algorithmic selection would extend this core without changing its statement.

Selected references

  • Olivier Bousquet and André Elisseeff, Stability and Generalization, Journal of Machine Learning Research 2 (2002), 499–526. Article and PDF.
  • Mehryar Mohri, Afshin Rostamizadeh, and Ameet Talwalkar, Foundations of Machine Learning, second edition, MIT Press, 2018, Chapter 14. Book information.
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Linear algebraMachine LearningReinforcement Learning·Captain: mikedeng1

Reinforcement Learning: An Introduction XI: Dutch Traces and the Equivalence of Forward and Backward Views in Monte Carlo LearningTextbook

Motivation

Eligibility traces are one of the basic mechanisms of reinforcement learning. A trace is a short-term memory vector ztz_tzt​ with one component per weight. It records which components contributed to recent value estimates, so that an error observed now can be credited to the right components without storing the past. Chapter 12 of Sutton and Barto's Reinforcement Learning: An Introduction (2nd ed., 2018) organizes the topic around two ways of describing an algorithm. A forward view updates each state toward a target built from rewards that arrive later. A backward view makes an update at every step from the current error and the trace.

The chapter proves one exact equivalence between the two views itself, in §12.6: "This is the only equivalence of forward- and backward-views that we explicitly demonstrate in this book" (p. 301). The setting is linear Monte Carlo prediction, and the backward view uses a dutch trace. The same trace appears in true online TD(λ\lambdaλ), whose exact equivalence to the online λ\lambdaλ-return algorithm (van Seijen and Sutton, 2014; van Seijen et al., 2016) the book cites without proof. Of that proof, §12.6 "gives some of the flavor ... but is much simpler" (p. 301).

The older equivalence of §§12.1–12.2 goes back to Sutton (1988). If the weights are held fixed during an episode, the summed updates of TD(λ\lambdaλ) with accumulating traces equal the summed updates of the off-line λ\lambdaλ-return algorithm. The book leaves it as Exercises 12.3–12.4.

Setting

Fix a dimension ddd, a step size α\alphaα and an episode of length T≥1T \ge 1T≥1 with feature vectors x0,…,xT−1∈Rdx_0, \dots, x_{T-1} \in \mathbb R^dx0​,…,xT−1​∈Rd. The episode ends with a single return G∈RG \in \mathbb RG∈R ("a single reward received at the end of the episode ... and ... no discounting", p. 301). The forward view is the linear gradient Monte Carlo, or LMS, rule (12.13): from an initial w0w_0w0​,

wt+1=wt+α [G−wt⊤xt] xt,0≤t<T.w_{t+1} = w_t + \alpha\,[G - w_t^\top x_t]\,x_t, \qquad 0 \le t < T .wt+1​=wt​+α[G−wt⊤​xt​]xt​,0≤t<T.

Let Ft=I−αxtxt⊤F_t = I - \alpha x_t x_t^\topFt​=I−αxt​xt⊤​ be the fading matrix. The backward view keeps two vectors that are updated at each step in O(d)O(d)O(d) time without knowledge of GGG. The dutch trace is z0=x0z_0 = x_0z0​=x0​, zt=zt−1+(1−αzt−1⊤xt) xtz_t = z_{t-1} + (1 - \alpha z_{t-1}^\top x_t)\,x_tzt​=zt−1​+(1−αzt−1⊤​xt​)xt​. The auxiliary vector is at=at−1−αxtxt⊤at−1a_t = a_{t-1} - \alpha x_t x_t^\top a_{t-1}at​=at−1​−αxt​xt⊤​at−1​, with a0=F0w0a_0 = F_0 w_0a0​=F0​w0​.

For the second part, an episode S0,R1,S1,…,RT,STS_0, R_1, S_1, \dots, R_T, S_TS0​,R1​,S1​,…,RT​,ST​ carries states and rewards, and v^(s,w)\hat v(s, w)v^(s,w) is a differentiable value function with v^(terminal,⋅)=0\hat v(\text{terminal}, \cdot) = 0v^(terminal,⋅)=0. For one fixed weight vector www, define the following, with γ∈[0,1]\gamma \in [0,1]γ∈[0,1] and λ∈[0,1)\lambda \in [0,1)λ∈[0,1):

  • the return GtG_tGt​;
  • the nnn-step return Gt:t+nG_{t:t+n}Gt:t+n​ (12.1), with Gt:t+n=GtG_{t:t+n} = G_tGt:t+n​=Gt​ once t+n≥Tt + n \ge Tt+n≥T;
  • the λ\lambdaλ-return Gtλ=(1−λ)∑n≥1λn−1Gt:t+nG^\lambda_t = (1-\lambda)\sum_{n \ge 1}\lambda^{n-1} G_{t:t+n}Gtλ​=(1−λ)∑n≥1​λn−1Gt:t+n​ (12.2);
  • the TD error δt=Rt+1+γv^(St+1,w)−v^(St,w)\delta_t = R_{t+1} + \gamma\hat v(S_{t+1}, w) - \hat v(S_t, w)δt​=Rt+1​+γv^(St+1​,w)−v^(St​,w) (12.6);
  • the accumulating trace z−1=0z_{-1} = 0z−1​=0, zt=γλzt−1+∇v^(St,w)z_t = \gamma\lambda z_{t-1} + \nabla\hat v(S_t, w)zt​=γλzt−1​+∇v^(St​,w) (12.5).

Formalization targets

Goal: the dutch-trace equivalence (12.14), corrected

wT=aT−1+αG zT−1.w_T = a_{T-1} + \alpha G\, z_{T-1}.wT​=aT−1​+αGzT−1​.

The left side is the forward view after TTT LMS updates. On the right, aT−1a_{T-1}aT−1​ and zT−1z_{T-1}zT−1​ are produced by the incremental recursions above. The goal is about the two algorithms, not only about the closed-form product identity.

Milestones on the goal's path (§12.6, p. 302)

  1. wt+1=Ftwt+αGxtw_{t+1} = F_t w_t + \alpha G x_twt+1​=Ft​wt​+αGxt​.
  2. wT=FT−1⋯F0w0+αG∑k=0T−1FT−1⋯Fk+1xkw_T = F_{T-1}\cdots F_0 w_0 + \alpha G \sum_{k=0}^{T-1} F_{T-1}\cdots F_{k+1} x_kwT​=FT−1​⋯F0​w0​+αG∑k=0T−1​FT−1​⋯Fk+1​xk​, the first line of (12.14).
  3. zt=∑k=0tFt⋯Fk+1xkz_t = \sum_{k=0}^{t} F_t \cdots F_{k+1} x_kzt​=∑k=0t​Ft​⋯Fk+1​xk​ for the dutch-trace recursion.
  4. at=Ft⋯F0w0a_t = F_t \cdots F_0 w_0at​=Ft​⋯F0​w0​ for the auxiliary-vector recursion (corrected initialization).

Milestones on the λ\lambdaλ-return (§§12.1–12.2)

  1. (12.3): Gtλ=(1−λ)∑n=1T−t−1λn−1Gt:t+n+λT−t−1GtG^\lambda_t = (1-\lambda)\sum_{n=1}^{T-t-1}\lambda^{n-1}G_{t:t+n} + \lambda^{T-t-1}G_tGtλ​=(1−λ)∑n=1T−t−1​λn−1Gt:t+n​+λT−t−1Gt​ for t<Tt < Tt<T.
  2. Exercise 12.1: Gtλ=Rt+1+γ[(1−λ)v^(St+1,w)+λGt+1λ]G^\lambda_t = R_{t+1} + \gamma[(1-\lambda)\hat v(S_{t+1}, w) + \lambda G^\lambda_{t+1}]Gtλ​=Rt+1​+γ[(1−λ)v^(St+1​,w)+λGt+1λ​].
  3. Exercise 12.3: Gtλ−v^(St,w)=∑k=tT−1(γλ)k−tδkG^\lambda_t - \hat v(S_t, w) = \sum_{k=t}^{T-1}(\gamma\lambda)^{k-t}\delta_kGtλ​−v^(St​,w)=∑k=tT−1​(γλ)k−tδk​.
  4. Exercise 12.4: ∑t<Tαδtzt=∑t<Tα[Gtλ−v^(St,w)]∇v^(St,w)\sum_{t<T}\alpha\delta_t z_t = \sum_{t<T}\alpha[G^\lambda_t - \hat v(S_t, w)]\nabla\hat v(S_t, w)∑t<T​αδt​zt​=∑t<T​α[Gtλ​−v^(St​,w)]∇v^(St​,w).

Significance

The goal says that an O(d)O(d)O(d)-per-step algorithm reproduces the Monte Carlo/LMS result exactly. That algorithm never stores the feature vectors or the TTT intermediate weight vectors. The book draws the conclusion that eligibility traces "are not specific to TD learning at all" (p. 303). The dutch trace in the case γλ=1\gamma\lambda = 1γλ=1 is the same object that true online TD(λ\lambdaλ) (12.11) uses for general γλ\gamma\lambdaγλ. The fading-matrix products and their incremental forms are therefore the vocabulary of any later formalization of true online TD(λ\lambdaλ) and of the online λ\lambdaλ-return algorithm.

Exercises 12.3–12.4 are the fixed-weight equivalence of TD(λ\lambdaλ) and the off-line λ\lambdaλ-return algorithm. They are the standard justification for calling TD(λ\lambdaλ) an approximation of the λ\lambdaλ-return algorithm. Exercise 12.1 and (12.3) are the identities the rest of the chapter uses to manipulate λ\lambdaλ-returns.

On status: all of these results are known and elementary on paper, and the book prints the derivation of (12.14). To our knowledge none of them has a machine-checked proof, and the platform has no statement about λ\lambdaλ-returns, eligibility traces or TD(λ\lambdaλ). What this mission adds is formal statements with every convention fixed, including one correction to the printed text. It also adds reusable definitions of nnn-step returns, λ\lambdaλ-returns and traces.

Difficulty

The algebra is elementary. The difficulty lies in the conventions, and a careless reading of the page produces a false statement. The book initializes a0=w0a_0 = w_0a0​=w0​, and taken literally that makes the goal false. The λ\lambdaλ-return is an infinite series, whose tail collapses only because every nnn-step return that reaches past termination equals the full return. That convention has to be built into the definition of Gt:t+nG_{t:t+n}Gt:t+n​, together with the terminal value v^(terminal,⋅)=0\hat v(\text{terminal}, \cdot) = 0v^(terminal,⋅)=0. Exercises 12.3 and 12.4 are true only when the weights stay fixed. With the algorithms' changing weights wtw_twt​ the nnn-step returns (12.1) use wt+n−1w_{t+n-1}wt+n−1​, and neither identity holds. The boundary indices (t=T−1t = T-1t=T−1, the empty product at k=T−1k = T-1k=T−1, GTλ=0G^\lambda_T = 0GTλ​=0) must come out right.

Formalization scope

Namespace SuttonBartoRL.Traces. Vectors of §12.6 are Fin d → ℝ, matrices Matrix (Fin d) (Fin d) ℝ, and xx⊤x x^\topxx⊤ is Matrix.vecMulVec x x. The ordered product fadeProd α x j t is Ft⋯FjF_t \cdots F_jFt​⋯Fj​, the identity when t<jt < jt<j. Feature sequences are indexed by N\mathbb NN; only x0,…,xT−1x_0, \dots, x_{T-1}x0​,…,xT−1​ enter. T≥1T \ge 1T≥1 is a hypothesis wherever T−1T - 1T−1 appears. The identities of §12.6 are stated for every real α\alphaα and GGG, a harmless strengthening of the book's positive step size.

For §§12.1–12.2, weights are EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin d), ∇\nabla∇ is Mathlib's gradient, and each v^(s,⋅)\hat v(s,\cdot)v^(s,⋅) is assumed differentiable in Exercise 12.4. An episode is a length TTT, states and rewards. The value at time t≥Tt \ge Tt≥T is 000. (12.2) is a tsum over n≥0n \ge 0n≥0 of λnGt:t+n+1\lambda^n G_{t:t+n+1}λnGt:t+n+1​, and λ∈[0,1)\lambda \in [0,1)λ∈[0,1), the range the book gives with (12.2). Milestone 5 concludes summability, so the junk value of a divergent tsum cannot make it trivial. Exercises 12.3–12.4 take one weight binder w, used in every return, TD error and gradient. That is the book's fixed-www assumption, stated in the binders.

Correction. The printed initialization a0=w0a_0 = w_0a0​=w0​ (p. 302) contradicts the printed definition at≐Ft⋯F0w0a_t \doteq F_t\cdots F_0 w_0at​≐Ft​⋯F0​w0​ and (12.14). The counterexample is d=1d = 1d=1, T=1T = 1T=1, x0=1x_0 = 1x0​=1, α=1/2\alpha = 1/2α=1/2, w0=1w_0 = 1w0​=1, G=0G = 0G=0: the forward view gives w1=1/2w_1 = 1/2w1​=1/2, while a0+αGz0=1a_0 + \alpha G z_0 = 1a0​+αGz0​=1. The mission states the corrected result with a0=F0w0a_0 = F_0 w_0a0​=F0​w0​, equivalently the same recursion started from a−1=w0a_{-1} = w_0a−1​=w0​. The printed text is kept verbatim in the milestone.

A trivializing formalization is ruled out: the goal is not the closed-form identity with aT−1a_{T-1}aT−1​ and zT−1z_{T-1}zT−1​ defined as the products and sums. Those vectors are defined by their GGG-free incremental recursions, and the closed forms are separate milestones.

Out of scope: the equivalence of true online TD(λ\lambdaλ) and the online λ\lambdaλ-return algorithm (cited, p. 300), the truncated-return identity (12.10), the error bound (12.8), and all convergence claims. Proofs of the milestones, and reuse of the definitions in later missions on true online TD(λ\lambdaλ), are welcome.

Selected references

  • R. S. Sutton and A. G. Barto, Reinforcement Learning: An Introduction, 2nd ed., MIT Press, 2018, ISBN 9780262039246, Chapter 12, pp. 287–320. http://incompleteideas.net/book/the-book-2nd.html
  • R. S. Sutton, "Learning to predict by the methods of temporal differences", Machine Learning 3 (1988), 9–44. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00115009
  • H. van Seijen and R. S. Sutton, "True online TD(λ)", Proceedings of ICML 2014, PMLR 32, 692–700. https://proceedings.mlr.press/v32/seijen14.html
  • H. van Seijen, A. R. Mahmood, P. M. Pilarski, M. C. Machado and R. S. Sutton, "True online temporal-difference learning", Journal of Machine Learning Research 17 (2016), 1–40. https://jmlr.org/papers/v17/15-599.html
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The Sample Complexity of Pattern Classification with Neural Networks: The Size of the Weights is More Important than the Size of the Network I: Fat-Shattering Margin Bound with d = fat_H(γ/16)Research Paper

Motivation

Classical generalization bounds for classifiers, built on the VC dimension, grow with the number of adjustable parameters. For neural networks this is at odds with practice: networks with many more weights than training examples often generalize well. Bartlett's 1998 paper (IEEE Trans. Inform. Theory 44(2), 525–536) explains part of this by measuring a real-valued classifier's confidence. If a hypothesis classifies most training examples correctly with a margin γ\gammaγ, its misclassification probability is controlled by a scale-sensitive dimension of the class at scale proportional to γ\gammaγ, not by its VC dimension. Later in the paper this yields bounds for networks with small weights that do not depend on the number of weights.

This mission formalizes the first of the paper's two main technical results, the margin bound of Theorem 2 (p. 527), together with the steps of its proof on pp. 527–528.

The fat-shattering dimension was introduced by Kearns and Schapire (JCSS 1994). Alon, Ben-David, Cesa-Bianchi and Haussler (J. ACM 1997) proved the scale-sensitive Sauer-type covering bound used here (Theorem 5 of the paper). Shawe-Taylor, Bartlett, Williamson and Anthony (IEEE Trans. Inform. Theory 1998) proved the zero-training-error version (Theorem 1 of the paper). Theorem 2 extends it to hypotheses that make margin errors on the training data.

Setting

Let XXX be a set and PPP a probability distribution on X×{−1,1}X\times\{-1,1\}X×{−1,1}. The threshold function is sgn⁡(α)=−1\operatorname{sgn}(\alpha)=-1sgn(α)=−1 for α<0\alpha<0α<0 and sgn⁡(α)=1\operatorname{sgn}(\alpha)=1sgn(α)=1 for α≥0\alpha\ge0α≥0. For a real-valued hypothesis hhh on XXX, the misclassification probability is er⁡P(h)=P{sgn⁡(h(x))≠y}\operatorname{er}_P(h)=P\{\operatorname{sgn}(h(x))\ne y\}erP​(h)=P{sgn(h(x))=y}. For a sample z=((x1,y1),…,(xm,ym))z=((x_1,y_1),\dots,(x_m,y_m))z=((x1​,y1​),…,(xm​,ym​)) drawn independently from PPP and γ>0\gamma>0γ>0, the margin error estimate is

er⁡^zγ(h)=1m ∣{i:yih(xi)<γ}∣.\widehat{\operatorname{er}}{}^{\gamma}_z(h)=\tfrac1m\,|\{i : y_ih(x_i)<\gamma\}|.erzγ​(h)=m1​∣{i:yi​h(xi​)<γ}∣.

Let HHH be a class of real functions on XXX. Points x1,…,xmx_1,\dots,x_mx1​,…,xm​ are γ\gammaγ-shattered by HHH if some r∈Rmr\in\mathbb R^mr∈Rm has the following property: for every sign vector b∈{−1,1}mb\in\{-1,1\}^mb∈{−1,1}m, some h∈Hh\in Hh∈H satisfies (h(xi)−ri)bi≥γ(h(x_i)-r_i)b_i\ge\gamma(h(xi​)−ri​)bi​≥γ for all iii. The fat-shattering dimension fat⁡H(γ)\operatorname{fat}_H(\gamma)fatH​(γ) is the largest such mmm, possibly ∞\infty∞.

The proof uses the following objects:

  • the squashing function πγ(α)=max⁡(−γ,min⁡(γ,α))\pi_\gamma(\alpha)=\max(-\gamma,\min(\gamma,\alpha))πγ​(α)=max(−γ,min(γ,α)) and the class πγ(H)={πγ∘h:h∈H}\pi_\gamma(H)=\{\pi_\gamma\circ h:h\in H\}πγ​(H)={πγ​∘h:h∈H};
  • the sample ℓ∞\ell_\inftyℓ∞​ pseudometric dℓ∞(x)(f,g)=max⁡i∣f(xi)−g(xi)∣d_{\ell_\infty(x)}(f,g)=\max_i|f(x_i)-g(x_i)|dℓ∞​(x)​(f,g)=maxi​∣f(xi​)−g(xi​)∣;
  • the covering number N∞(F,ϵ,m)\mathcal N_\infty(F,\epsilon,m)N∞​(F,ϵ,m), the largest over x∈Xmx\in X^mx∈Xm of the size of the smallest ϵ\epsilonϵ-cover (Definition 3), and the corresponding packing number M∞(F,α,m)\mathcal M_\infty(F,\alpha,m)M∞​(F,α,m);
  • the quantization Qα(x)=⌈(x−α/2)/α⌉αQ_\alpha(x)=\lceil (x-\alpha/2)/\alpha\rceil\alphaQα​(x)=⌈(x−α/2)/α⌉α.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 2

Assume 0<δ<1/20<\delta<1/20<δ<1/2, 0<γ<10<\gamma<10<γ<1, m≥1m\ge1m≥1, and d=fat⁡H(γ/16)d=\operatorname{fat}_H(\gamma/16)d=fatH​(γ/16) finite with d≤34md\le 34md≤34m. With probability at least 1−δ1-\delta1−δ over zzz, every h∈Hh\in Hh∈H satisfies

er⁡P(h)<er⁡^zγ(h)+2m(dln⁡34emdlog⁡2(578m)+ln⁡4δ).\operatorname{er}_P(h)<\widehat{\operatorname{er}}{}^{\gamma}_z(h)+\sqrt{\frac2m\Bigl(d\ln\frac{34em}{d}\log_2(578m)+\ln\frac4\delta\Bigr)} .erP​(h)<erzγ​(h)+m2​(dlnd34em​log2​(578m)+lnδ4​)​.

Milestones, in the order the proof uses them

  1. Lemma 4. er⁡P(h)<er⁡^zγ(h)+(2/m)ln⁡(2N∞(πγ(H),γ/2,2m)/δ)\operatorname{er}_P(h)<\widehat{\operatorname{er}}{}^{\gamma}_z(h)+\sqrt{(2/m)\ln(2\mathcal N_\infty(\pi_\gamma(H),\gamma/2,2m)/\delta)}erP​(h)<erzγ​(h)+(2/m)ln(2N∞​(πγ​(H),γ/2,2m)/δ)​ uniformly over HHH, with probability at least 1−δ1-\delta1−δ.
  2. Theorem 5 (Alon et al.). If F:{1,…,n}→{1,…,b}F:\{1,\dots,n\}\to\{1,\dots,b\}F:{1,…,n}→{1,…,b} and fat⁡F(1)≤d\operatorname{fat}_F(1)\le dfatF​(1)≤d, then log⁡2N∞(F,2,n)<1+log⁡2(nb2)log⁡2∑i≤d(ni)bi\log_2\mathcal N_\infty(F,2,n)<1+\log_2(nb^2)\log_2\sum_{i\le d}\binom ni b^ilog2​N∞​(F,2,n)<1+log2​(nb2)log2​∑i≤d​(in​)bi, provided nnn is large enough.
  3. Writing F=Qγ/8(πγ(H))F=Q_{\gamma/8}(\pi_\gamma(H))F=Qγ/8​(πγ​(H)): fat⁡F(γ/8)≤fat⁡πγ(H)(γ/16)\operatorname{fat}_F(\gamma/8)\le\operatorname{fat}_{\pi_\gamma(H)}(\gamma/16)fatF​(γ/8)≤fatπγ​(H)​(γ/16).
  4. M∞(πγ(H),γ/2,2m)≤M∞(F,γ/2,2m)\mathcal M_\infty(\pi_\gamma(H),\gamma/2,2m)\le\mathcal M_\infty(F,\gamma/2,2m)M∞​(πγ​(H),γ/2,2m)≤M∞​(F,γ/2,2m).
  5. N∞(πγ(H),γ/2,2m)≤N∞(F,γ/4,2m)\mathcal N_\infty(\pi_\gamma(H),\gamma/2,2m)\le\mathcal N_\infty(F,\gamma/4,2m)N∞​(πγ​(H),γ/2,2m)≤N∞​(F,γ/4,2m).
  6. log⁡2N∞(πγ(H),γ/2,2m)<1+dlog⁡2(34em/d)log⁡2(578m)\log_2\mathcal N_\infty(\pi_\gamma(H),\gamma/2,2m)<1+d\log_2(34em/d)\log_2(578m)log2​N∞​(πγ​(H),γ/2,2m)<1+dlog2​(34em/d)log2​(578m) when 1≤d≤2m1\le d\le 2m1≤d≤2m and m≥dlog⁡2(34em/d)+1m\ge d\log_2(34em/d)+1m≥dlog2​(34em/d)+1.
  7. fat⁡πγ(H)(γ/16)≤fat⁡H(γ/16)\operatorname{fat}_{\pi_\gamma(H)}(\gamma/16)\le\operatorname{fat}_H(\gamma/16)fatπγ​(H)​(γ/16)≤fatH​(γ/16).

A further item, Proposition 8 (p. 529), is the probabilistic device the paper uses to make such bounds uniform over γ\gammaγ.

Significance

Theorem 2 is the bound behind the paper's main message. Corollary 9 makes it uniform over γ\gammaγ, and Theorem 28 combines it with fat-shattering estimates for networks with bounded weights. Together they show that a network classifying the training data with a large margin generalizes at a rate governed by the size of its weights, not by its number of weights. The same template, a margin error plus a capacity term at scale γ\gammaγ, underlies later margin analyses of support vector machines and boosting.

All results in this mission are proved in the literature; none is open. None is machine-checked on this platform: the platform has Rademacher-complexity margin bounds, but no statement about fat-shattering dimension or ℓ∞\ell_\inftyℓ∞​ sample covering numbers of real-valued classes. A complete formalization would provide a reusable library of these objects, with their basic inequalities between squashing, quantization, packing and covering. It would also give a checked version of the explicit constants 34em/d34em/d34em/d and 578m578m578m, which differ from those in later textbook treatments.

Difficulty

The bound is uniform over a possibly uncountable class HHH, so a union bound over hypotheses does not apply. The obvious replacement is a union bound over a cover of HHH. Two steps make it hard:

  • Lemma 4. It needs a ghost-sample symmetrization and a random-swap argument, carried out with an ℓ∞\ell_\inftyℓ∞​ cover of the squashed class on the double sample, so the cover depends on the data.
  • Theorem 5. Bounding that covering number by the fat-shattering dimension is a combinatorial counting argument about strongly shattered pairs. It is the scale-sensitive analogue of the Sauer–Shelah lemma, and here the bookkeeping of constants is exact.

The quantization steps look routine but carry the factor-of-two losses that produce the constants γ/16\gamma/16γ/16, 171717 and 578578578.

Formalization scope

The model is in the namespace BartlettNN.Margin.

  • Labels and samples. Labels are Bool, read as ±1\pm1±1 through pm (true is +1+1+1). sgn⁡(0)=1\operatorname{sgn}(0)=1sgn(0)=1. Samples are functions Fin m → X × Bool, indexed from 000, with law Measure.pi (fun _ => P). The margin estimate uses the strict inequality yih(xi)<γy_ih(x_i)<\gammayi​h(xi​)<γ, and shattering uses ≥γ\ge\gamma≥γ.
  • Fat-shattering dimension. fat⁡\operatorname{fat}fat is valued in ℕ∞. A ℕ-valued supremum would be 000 on an unbounded set, so the goal assumes fat H (γ/16) = d with d : ℕ.
  • Covering and packing numbers. Covers are finite and external (centres are arbitrary functions), the cover inequality is strict, and covering numbers are ⊤ when no finite cover exists. N∞\mathcal N_\inftyN∞​ and M∞\mathcal M_\inftyM∞​ are suprema over all samples, with repetitions allowed. "α\alphaα-separated", which the paper leaves undefined, is read as distance ≥α\ge\alpha≥α.
  • Logarithms. ln⁡\lnln is Real.log, log⁡2\log_2log2​ is Real.logb 2, and eee is Real.exp 1.
  • High probability. "With probability at least 1−δ1-\delta1−δ, every hhh" bounds the measure of the event that some h∈Hh\in Hh∈H violates the inequality. It is not a per-hypothesis statement.

Measurability. The paper states "we ignore issues of measurability, and assume that all sets considered are measurable" (p. 526). This is made explicit, not removed, through three hypotheses:

  • every h∈Hh\in Hh∈H is measurable;
  • the bad events {z:∃h∈H, er⁡P(h)≥er⁡^zγ(h)+ϵ}\{z:\exists h\in H,\ \operatorname{er}_P(h)\ge\widehat{\operatorname{er}}{}^{\gamma}_z(h)+\epsilon\}{z:∃h∈H, erP​(h)≥erzγ​(h)+ϵ} are measurable;
  • the double-sample events of display (1) are measurable.

Replacing these by countability of HHH would weaken the theorem.

Corrections of the printed text.

  • Theorem 2. The goal adds d≤34md\le 34md≤34m. Beyond 34m34m34m the term dln⁡(34em/d)d\ln(34em/d)dln(34em/d) decreases, vanishes at d=34emd=34emd=34em and then turns negative, and the printed statement fails for rich classes. Within this range nothing is lost: the proof covers d≤2md\le2md≤2m, and for 2m<d≤34m2m<d\le34m2m<d≤34m the bound exceeds 111.
  • Milestone 6. It carries the hypothesis d≤2md\le 2md≤2m, the range of the binomial estimate behind 34em/d34em/d34em/d.
  • Milestone 3. Its printed justification ∣Qγ/8(a)−Qγ/8(b)∣<∣a−b∣+γ/16|Q_{\gamma/8}(a)-Q_{\gamma/8}(b)|<|a-b|+\gamma/16∣Qγ/8​(a)−Qγ/8​(b)∣<∣a−b∣+γ/16 is false; the correct term is γ/8\gamma/8γ/8. The milestone's conclusion is true as printed, and only the conclusion is formalized.

Trivializing formalizations, ruled out. The following would each make the statements empty or different, and none is used:

  • a ℕ-valued fat dimension or covering number;
  • Real.sign in place of sgn⁡\operatorname{sgn}sgn;
  • a per-hypothesis probability bound;
  • an unrestricted ddd, which makes ⋅\sqrt{\cdot}⋅​ of a negative number equal to 000;
  • a covering number that is 000 on classes without finite covers.

Infrastructure that a complete development needs, and contributions that are welcome:

  • product measures and Hoeffding's inequality, which Mathlib has;
  • a symmetrization (ghost-sample) lemma for margin events;
  • the combinatorics of Theorem 5;
  • the elementary inequalities between packing and covering numbers.

The covering/packing and fat-shattering lemmas apply beyond this mission. Proofs of individual milestones, or of Theorem 5 in the generality of Alon et al., are useful contributions in their own right.

Selected references

  • P. L. Bartlett, The Sample Complexity of Pattern Classification with Neural Networks: The Size of the Weights is More Important than the Size of the Network, IEEE Trans. Inform. Theory 44(2), 525–536, 1998. https://doi.org/10.1109/18.661502
  • N. Alon, S. Ben-David, N. Cesa-Bianchi, D. Haussler, Scale-sensitive dimensions, uniform convergence, and learnability, J. ACM 44(4), 615–631, 1997. https://doi.org/10.1145/263867.263927
  • J. Shawe-Taylor, P. L. Bartlett, R. C. Williamson, M. Anthony, Structural risk minimization over data-dependent hierarchies, IEEE Trans. Inform. Theory 44(5), 1926–1940, 1998. https://doi.org/10.1109/18.705570
  • M. J. Kearns, R. E. Schapire, Efficient distribution-free learning of probabilistic concepts, J. Comput. Syst. Sci. 48(3), 464–497, 1994. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-0000(05)80062-5
  • V. N. Vapnik, A. Ya. Chervonenkis, On the uniform convergence of relative frequencies of events to their probabilities, Theory Probab. Appl. 16(2), 264–280, 1971. https://doi.org/10.1137/1116025
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Operations ResearchOptimizationProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

Air Travel Demand and Airline Seat Inventory Management III: Gaussian EMSR Protection Levels and Their SensitivityTextbook

Why protection levels and their inputs matter

An airline sells the seats of one flight leg in several fare classes at different prices. Low-fare passengers usually book first, so the airline must decide how many seats to keep back, or protect, for later high-fare passengers. Peter Belobaba's 1987 MIT dissertation introduced the expected marginal seat revenue (EMSR) rule for this decision, and EMSR-type rules became a standard of airline revenue management practice (Talluri and van Ryzin 2004). A protection level is computed from a demand forecast, and forecasts are uncertain. Section 6.2 of the dissertation asks how the protection level moves when its inputs move: the mean of forecast demand, its standard deviation, and the ratio of the two fares. That question decides where forecasting effort pays off, and this mission formalizes the answers the dissertation gives for Gaussian demand.

This is the third mission in a series on the dissertation. The first treats marginal allocation among distinct fare classes, and the second the two-class nested protection level in the discrete model, including its revenue optimality. This mission takes the continuous Gaussian model of Chapter 6 on its own terms.

Setting

Let rrr be the number of requests for a fare class, a real random variable with law μ\muμ. For a seat level S∈RS \in \mathbb RS∈R the tail probability is

Pˉ(S)=P[r≥S],\bar P(S) = P[r \ge S],Pˉ(S)=P[r≥S],

and for the fare fff of the class the expected marginal seat revenue is EMSR(S)=Pˉ(S)⋅f\mathrm{EMSR}(S) = \bar P(S)\cdot fEMSR(S)=Pˉ(S)⋅f (Eqs. (6.1)–(6.2)).

There are two classes: class 1 with fare f1f_1f1​ and class 2 with fare f2f_2f2​, where 0<f2<f10 < f_2 < f_10<f2​<f1​. Requests for class 1 are Gaussian with estimated mean rˉ\bar rrˉ and estimated standard deviation σ^>0\hat\sigma > 0σ^>0, written r1∼N(rˉ,σ^2)r_1 \sim N(\bar r, \hat\sigma^2)r1​∼N(rˉ,σ^2). A real number SSS is an EMSR protection level for class 1 against class 2 when

Pˉ1(S)=P[r1≥S]=f2f1(Eq. (6.10)).\bar P_1(S) = P[r_1 \ge S] = \frac{f_2}{f_1} \qquad \text{(Eq. (6.10))}.Pˉ1​(S)=P[r1​≥S]=f1​f2​​(Eq. (6.10)).

The standardized level ZZZ is the value "which has a probability of f2/f1f_2/f_1f2​/f1​ of being exceeded" by a standard normal variable:

P[N(0,1)≥Z]=f2f1.P[N(0,1) \ge Z] = \frac{f_2}{f_1}.P[N(0,1)≥Z]=f1​f2​​.

In the Lean development these are tailProb, emsr, gaussianLaw rbar σ, stdNormal, IsProtectionLevel rbar σ f₁ f₂ S and IsStdNormalLevel f₁ f₂ Z, all in the namespace SeatInventory.Gaussian.

Formalization targets

Goal: the Gaussian protection level and its sensitivity to σ^\hat\sigmaσ^

For σ^>0\hat\sigma > 0σ^>0 and 0<f2<f10 < f_2 < f_10<f2​<f1​:

  1. Eq. (6.10) has exactly one solution SSS, and the standard normal equation has exactly one solution ZZZ;
  2. they satisfy
S=rˉ+Zσ^(Eq. (6.12));S = \bar r + Z\hat\sigma \qquad \text{(Eq. (6.12))};S=rˉ+Zσ^(Eq. (6.12));
  1. Z<0Z < 0Z<0 if f2/f1>1/2f_2/f_1 > 1/2f2​/f1​>1/2, Z>0Z > 0Z>0 if f2/f1<1/2f_2/f_1 < 1/2f2​/f1​<1/2, Z=0Z = 0Z=0 if f2/f1=1/2f_2/f_1 = 1/2f2​/f1​=1/2 (Eq. (6.14)), and S=rˉS = \bar rS=rˉ in the last case;
  2. if σ^′>σ^\hat\sigma' > \hat\sigmaσ^′>σ^ and S′S'S′ solves (6.10) for N(rˉ,σ^′2)N(\bar r, \hat\sigma'^2)N(rˉ,σ^′2), then S′<SS' < SS′<S, S′>SS' > SS′>S or S′=SS' = SS′=S according as f2/f1f_2/f_1f2​/f1​ is above, below or equal to 1/21/21/2.

The goal states no numerical constant and no particular fare ratio; it fixes only the shape of the dependence.

Milestones, in attack order

  • Eq. (6.1)–(6.2): for any request law, Pˉ\bar PPˉ and EMSR\mathrm{EMSR}EMSR are non-increasing in SSS.
  • Eq. (6.10): the Gaussian protection level exists and is unique.
  • Eq. (6.11)–(6.12): S=rˉ+Zσ^S = \bar r + Z\hat\sigmaS=rˉ+Zσ^.
  • p. 154: with σ^\hat\sigmaσ^ and the fares fixed, replacing rˉ\bar rrˉ by rˉ+c\bar r + crˉ+c replaces SSS by S+cS + cS+c.
  • Eq. (6.14): the sign of ZZZ, and S=rˉS = \bar rS=rˉ at fare ratio 1/21/21/2 for every σ^\hat\sigmaσ^.
  • p. 154: the effect of σ^\hat\sigmaσ^ on SSS (part 4 of the goal on its own).
  • p. 157: ZZZ and SSS decrease strictly as the fare ratio f2/f1f_2/f_1f2​/f1​ increases.

The dissertation's constant-coefficient-of-variation form, Eq. (6.13), S=rˉ(1+Zk)S = \bar r(1 + Zk)S=rˉ(1+Zk) with k=σ^/rˉk = \hat\sigma/\bar rk=σ^/rˉ, follows from (6.12) by substitution and is not stated separately.

Significance

The result gives every Gaussian protection level as a closed form in one standard normal quantile. From it come the three sensitivities that Sect. 6.2 uses to argue for better forecasts. The protection level moves one-for-one with mean demand. The standard deviation moves it in a direction fixed only by whether the discount fare is above or below half the full fare. A higher fare ratio always lowers it. The dissertation uses these facts, and its Figures 6.1 and 6.2, to argue that reducing the estimated standard deviation of demand narrows the range of protection levels a forecast can produce. The same quantile structure is behind Littlewood's rule and the newsvendor critical fractile, so the statements here are the Gaussian specialization of a pattern that recurs throughout revenue management and inventory theory.

All the statements are classical and easy to believe. None of them, to our knowledge, has a machine-checked proof. Mathlib provides the Gaussian law and its affine images, but no standard normal quantile and no statement that a Gaussian tail is a strictly decreasing bijection onto (0,1)(0,1)(0,1). Formalizing this mission produces both, in a form that can be used again wherever a normal critical fractile appears.

Difficulty

Most of the work is in the existence and uniqueness of the two tail solutions. The tail S↦P[r1≥S]S \mapsto P[r_1 \ge S]S↦P[r1​≥S] must be shown continuous, strictly decreasing, and to take every value in (0,1)(0,1)(0,1). Strictness needs the Gaussian density to be positive everywhere, and existence needs a limit argument at both ends. Monotonicity alone, which holds for every law (Eqs. (6.1)–(6.2)), gives neither, because a general law can have flat stretches and jumps in its tail. The relation S=rˉ+Zσ^S = \bar r + Z\hat\sigmaS=rˉ+Zσ^ then requires transporting the tail of N(rˉ,σ^2)N(\bar r,\hat\sigma^2)N(rˉ,σ^2) to that of N(0,1)N(0,1)N(0,1) through the affine map x↦(x−rˉ)/σ^x \mapsto (x - \bar r)/\hat\sigmax↦(x−rˉ)/σ^, and the sign of ZZZ requires the symmetry of N(0,1)N(0,1)N(0,1), namely P[N(0,1)≥0]=1/2P[N(0,1) \ge 0] = 1/2P[N(0,1)≥0]=1/2. Once uniqueness is available, each sensitivity statement follows from these facts. The tempting shortcut of reading S=rˉ+Zσ^S = \bar r + Z\hat\sigmaS=rˉ+Zσ^ as a definition is ruled out below.

Formalization scope

  • Continuous seats. Protection levels and ZZZ are real numbers, as in the dissertation's own Gaussian example (Z=−0.675Z = -0.675Z=−0.675 at fare ratio 0.750.750.75). This differs from the first two missions of the series, which count seats in N\mathbb NN. For a continuous law P[r≥S]=P[r>S]P[r \ge S] = P[r > S]P[r≥S]=P[r>S], so the two definitions of Pˉ\bar PPˉ the dissertation uses (Eq. (5.2) and Eq. (6.2)) coincide here.
  • Gaussian law. N(rˉ,σ^2)N(\bar r, \hat\sigma^2)N(rˉ,σ^2) is Mathlib's gaussianReal rbar (σ^2), parameterised by the variance. Every theorem assumes σ^>0\hat\sigma > 0σ^>0; at σ^=0\hat\sigma = 0σ^=0 the law is a Dirac mass and (6.10) has no solution.
  • Fares. 0<f2<f10 < f_2 < f_10<f2​<f1​, so f2/f1∈(0,1)f_2/f_1 \in (0,1)f2​/f1​∈(0,1). This is the dissertation's "f2<f1f_2 < f_1f2​<f1​" together with positive fares.
  • Relational sensitivity. The sensitivity statements compare any two solutions of (6.10) under the two input values. Together with uniqueness, this is the same as monotonicity of the solution map. No function is defined by a choice operator.
  • Tail as a real number. Pˉ(S)\bar P(S)Pˉ(S) is the measure of [S,∞)[S,\infty)[S,∞) as a real number. The law is a probability measure, so nothing is truncated.
  • No trivialization. SSS is defined only by the tail equation (6.10) for N(rˉ,σ^2)N(\bar r, \hat\sigma^2)N(rˉ,σ^2), and ZZZ only by the tail equation for N(0,1)N(0,1)N(0,1). Neither is defined by the formula S=rˉ+Zσ^S = \bar r + Z\hat\sigmaS=rˉ+Zσ^, which would make Eq. (6.12) true by definition.
  • Not covered. The revenue optimality of the level defined by (6.10) belongs to the second mission. The multi-class EMSR rules (5.19)–(5.29) are not optimal for three or more classes and are not stated. The empirical analysis of Sect. 6.1 is out of scope.

Useful infrastructure, all reusable: the strict monotonicity, continuity and range of Gaussian tails; the standard normal quantile; and tail transport under affine maps. Contributions of these as separate lemmas are welcome.

Selected references

  • P. P. Belobaba, Air Travel Demand and Airline Seat Inventory Management, PhD thesis, MIT Flight Transportation Laboratory Report R87-7, 1987. (no DOI; the source PDF of this mission).
  • P. P. Belobaba, Application of a probabilistic decision model to airline seat inventory control, Operations Research 37(2):183–197, 1989. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.37.2.183
  • K. Littlewood, Forecasting and control of passenger bookings, AGIFORS Symposium Proceedings 12, 1972; reprinted in Journal of Revenue and Pricing Management 4:111–123, 2005. https://doi.org/10.1057/palgrave.rpm.5170134
  • K. T. Talluri and G. J. van Ryzin, The Theory and Practice of Revenue Management, Springer, 2004. https://doi.org/10.1007/b139000
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🏆Completed
Machine LearningMarkov ChainReinforcement Learning·Captain: mikedeng1

Reinforcement Learning: An Introduction VII: The Error Reduction Property of n-step ReturnsTextbook

Motivation

Temporal-difference (TD) learning estimates the value of a policy by moving a current estimate toward a target built from observed rewards and from the estimate itself. Chapter 7 of Sutton and Barto's Reinforcement Learning: An Introduction (2nd ed., MIT Press, 2018) interpolates between the two extreme targets of the preceding chapters: the one-step TD target, which uses one reward and then bootstraps, and the Monte Carlo target, which uses every reward until the end of the episode. The intermediate target, the nnn-step return, uses nnn rewards and then bootstraps from the current estimate. The family underlies nnn-step TD, nnn-step Sarsa, the off-policy per-decision methods and the tree-backup algorithm, and it is the introduction to eligibility traces (Chapter 12).

The book justifies the whole family with one inequality, the error reduction property (7.3), p. 144: the expected nnn-step return is closer to the true value than the estimate it bootstraps from, by a factor γn\gamma^nγn in the worst state. It is the reason given for calling nnn-step TD methods "sound". The same chapter states, mostly as exercises without solutions, a series of exact identities that rewrite each kind of nnn-step return as a sum of one-step TD errors.

Setting

A finite Markov decision process has finite state and action sets S\mathcal SS, A\mathcal AA, a finite reward set R⊂R\mathcal R \subset \mathbb RR⊂R, and dynamics p(s′,r∣s,a)p(s', r \mid s, a)p(s′,r∣s,a), the probability of next state s′s's′ and reward rrr after action aaa in state sss (Eqs. (3.2)–(3.3)). A policy π(a∣s)\pi(a \mid s)π(a∣s) is a probability distribution over actions for each state. Following π\piπ from St=sS_t = sSt​=s produces a random trajectory At,Rt+1,St+1,At+1,Rt+2,…A_t, R_{t+1}, S_{t+1}, A_{t+1}, R_{t+2}, \dotsAt​,Rt+1​,St+1​,At+1​,Rt+2​,… For a discount factor 0≤γ<10 \le \gamma < 10≤γ<1 the state-value function is the expected discounted return (3.12),

vπ(s)=Eπ[∑k=0∞γkRt+k+1 ∣ St=s].v_\pi(s) = \mathbb E_\pi\Big[\sum_{k=0}^{\infty} \gamma^k R_{t+k+1} \,\Big|\, S_t = s\Big].vπ​(s)=Eπ​[k=0∑∞​γkRt+k+1​​St​=s].

Given any function V:S→RV : \mathcal S \to \mathbb RV:S→R (an estimate of vπv_\pivπ​), the nnn-step return (7.1) is

Gt:t+n=Rt+1+γRt+2+⋯+γn−1Rt+n+γnV(St+n).G_{t:t+n} = R_{t+1} + \gamma R_{t+2} + \cdots + \gamma^{n-1} R_{t+n} + \gamma^n V(S_{t+n}).Gt:t+n​=Rt+1​+γRt+2​+⋯+γn−1Rt+n​+γnV(St+n​).

In an episode that terminates at time TTT it is replaced by the complete return GtG_tGt​ when t+n≥Tt + n \ge Tt+n≥T. The TD error (6.5) is δk=Rk+1+γV(Sk+1)−V(Sk)\delta_k = R_{k+1} + \gamma V(S_{k+1}) - V(S_k)δk​=Rk+1​+γV(Sk+1​)−V(Sk​). Off-policy variants use a behavior policy bbb that generates the data, the per-decision ratio ρt=π(At∣St)/b(At∣St)\rho_t = \pi(A_t \mid S_t)/b(A_t \mid S_t)ρt​=π(At​∣St​)/b(At​∣St​), and the return with control variate (7.13), Gt:h=ρt(Rt+1+γGt+1:h)+(1−ρt)V(St)G_{t:h} = \rho_t(R_{t+1} + \gamma G_{t+1:h}) + (1-\rho_t) V(S_t)Gt:h​=ρt​(Rt+1​+γGt+1:h​)+(1−ρt​)V(St​), Gh:h=V(Sh)G_{h:h} = V(S_h)Gh:h​=V(Sh​). The tree-backup return (7.15)–(7.16) uses action values QQQ and the expected approximate value Vˉ(s)=∑aπ(a∣s)Q(s,a)\bar V(s) = \sum_a \pi(a \mid s) Q(s, a)Vˉ(s)=∑a​π(a∣s)Q(s,a) (7.8).

Formalization targets

Goal: the error reduction property (7.3)

For a finite MDP, a policy π\piπ, 0≤γ<10 \le \gamma < 10≤γ<1, any V:S→RV : \mathcal S \to \mathbb RV:S→R and every n≥1n \ge 1n≥1,

max⁡s∣Eπ[Gt:t+n∣St=s]−vπ(s)∣≤γnmax⁡s∣V(s)−vπ(s)∣.\max_s \big|\mathbb E_\pi[G_{t:t+n} \mid S_t = s] - v_\pi(s)\big| \le \gamma^n \max_s \big|V(s) - v_\pi(s)\big|.smax​​Eπ​[Gt:t+n​∣St​=s]−vπ​(s)​≤γnsmax​​V(s)−vπ​(s)​.

Milestones, in the book's order

  1. Exercise 7.1, p. 143: with VVV fixed and V(ST)=0V(S_T) = 0V(ST​)=0, Gt:t+n−V(St)=∑k=tmin⁡(t+n,T)−1γk−tδkG_{t:t+n} - V(S_t) = \sum_{k=t}^{\min(t+n,T)-1} \gamma^{k-t}\delta_kGt:t+n​−V(St​)=∑k=tmin(t+n,T)−1​γk−tδk​.
  2. Exercise 7.4, Eq. (7.6), p. 148: the nnn-step Sarsa return equals Qt−1(St,At)+∑k=tmin⁡(t+n,T)−1γk−t[Rk+1+γQk(Sk+1,Ak+1)−Qk−1(Sk,Ak)]Q_{t-1}(S_t, A_t) + \sum_{k=t}^{\min(t+n,T)-1} \gamma^{k-t}[R_{k+1} + \gamma Q_k(S_{k+1}, A_{k+1}) - Q_{k-1}(S_k, A_k)]Qt−1​(St​,At​)+∑k=tmin(t+n,T)−1​γk−t[Rk+1​+γQk​(Sk+1​,Ak+1​)−Qk−1​(Sk​,Ak​)], with estimates changing from step to step.
  3. Eq. (7.12), p. 150: Gt:h=Rt+1+γGt+1:hG_{t:h} = R_{t+1} + \gamma G_{t+1:h}Gt:h​=Rt+1​+γGt+1:h​ for t<h<Tt < h < Tt<h<T, Gh:h=V(Sh)G_{h:h} = V(S_h)Gh:h​=V(Sh​).
  4. Exercise 7.6, p. 151, for (7.13): under coverage, Eb\mathbb E_bEb​ of the control-variate return equals Eb\mathbb E_bEb​ of the same return without the control variate, and both equal Eπ[Gt:t+n∣St=s]\mathbb E_\pi[G_{t:t+n} \mid S_t = s]Eπ​[Gt:t+n​∣St​=s].
  5. Exercise 7.8, p. 151: Gt:h−V(St)=∑k=th−1γk−t(∏i=tkρi)δkG_{t:h} - V(S_t) = \sum_{k=t}^{h-1} \gamma^{k-t} \big(\prod_{i=t}^{k}\rho_i\big) \delta_kGt:h​−V(St​)=∑k=th−1​γk−t(∏i=tk​ρi​)δk​ for the return (7.13).
  6. Exercise 7.11, p. 153: the tree-backup return equals Q(St,At)+∑k=tmin⁡(t+n−1,T−1)δk∏i=t+1kγπ(Ai∣Si)Q(S_t, A_t) + \sum_{k=t}^{\min(t+n-1,T-1)} \delta_k \prod_{i=t+1}^{k} \gamma\pi(A_i \mid S_i)Q(St​,At​)+∑k=tmin(t+n−1,T−1)​δk​∏i=t+1k​γπ(Ai​∣Si​) with the expectation-based TD error δk=Rk+1+γVˉ(Sk+1)−Q(Sk,Ak)\delta_k = R_{k+1} + \gamma\bar V(S_{k+1}) - Q(S_k, A_k)δk​=Rk+1​+γVˉ(Sk+1​)−Q(Sk​,Ak​).

Significance

The result. The error reduction property makes the expected nnn-step target a γn\gamma^nγn-contraction toward vπv_\pivπ​ in the sup norm, uniformly over the estimate it starts from. It is the one-line reason the book offers for the soundness of every nnn-step TD method, and the same contraction is what the λ\lambdaλ-return of Chapter 12 averages over nnn. The TD-error identities are the algebra behind implementations that accumulate TD errors instead of storing returns, and behind the forward/backward-view equivalences of Chapter 12. Exercise 7.6 is the unbiasedness of the control-variate return, which is what allows (7.13) to replace plain importance weighting without changing the expected update.

Formalizing it. All results are elementary and well known, but the book gives no proofs: (7.3) is asserted, and the identities are exercises without published solutions. None is formalized on Prove2Me. The mission produces machine-checked versions with every hypothesis explicit (discounting, the fixed estimate, terminal values, coverage), and a trajectory-level expectation for finite MDPs that other chapters of the series can reuse.

Difficulty

The obvious proof of (7.3) is a matrix computation: Eπ[Gt:t+n∣St=s]−vπ(s)=γn(Pπn(V−vπ))(s)\mathbb E_\pi[G_{t:t+n} \mid S_t = s] - v_\pi(s) = \gamma^n (P_\pi^n (V - v_\pi))(s)Eπ​[Gt:t+n​∣St​=s]−vπ​(s)=γn(Pπn​(V−vπ​))(s), and a stochastic matrix does not increase the sup norm. The difficulty lies in the step before it. The left side is an expectation over trajectories, and vπv_\pivπ​ is an infinite discounted series; neither is a matrix power by definition. Connecting them requires a Chapman–Kolmogorov identity for the finite-trajectory distribution induced by π\piπ and p(s′,r∣s,a)p(s', r \mid s, a)p(s′,r∣s,a), the splitting of vπv_\pivπ​ at time nnn, and summability of the discounted series. Defining the expected nnn-step return as the matrix expression would reduce the goal to the last line and remove its content; that shortcut is ruled out below.

The TD-error identities are telescoping sums, but each has its own boundary: termination inside the nnn steps, the convention that terminal states have value zero, the index Q−1Q_{-1}Q−1​ at t=0t = 0t=0 in (7.6), the special case GT−1:t+n=RTG_{T-1:t+n} = R_TGT−1:t+n​=RT​ of the tree backup, and ratios with vanishing denominators in (7.13).

Formalization scope

  • Model. The finite MDP, policies and vπv_\pivπ​ follow the series conventions: dynamics p(s′,r∣s,a)p(s', r \mid s, a)p(s′,r∣s,a) over a finite reward set, one action set for all states, vπ(s)=∑kγk(Pπkrπ)(s)v_\pi(s) = \sum_k \gamma^k (P_\pi^k r_\pi)(s)vπ​(s)=∑k​γk(Pπk​rπ​)(s) computed from expected rewards and never defined as a Bellman solution.
  • Expectations are over trajectories. Eπ[ ⋅∣St=s]\mathbb E_\pi[\,\cdot \mid S_t = s]Eπ​[⋅∣St​=s] is the finite sum over nnn-step segments (At+k,St+k+1,Rt+k+1)k<n(A_{t+k}, S_{t+k+1}, R_{t+k+1})_{k<n}(At+k​,St+k+1​,Rt+k+1​)k<n​ weighted by ∏kπ(At+k∣St+k) p(St+k+1,Rt+k+1∣St+k,At+k)\prod_k \pi(A_{t+k}\mid S_{t+k})\,p(S_{t+k+1}, R_{t+k+1}\mid S_{t+k}, A_{t+k})∏k​π(At+k​∣St+k​)p(St+k+1​,Rt+k+1​∣St+k​,At+k​). The expected nnn-step return is not defined as ∑k<nγkPπkrπ+γnPπnV\sum_{k<n}\gamma^k P_\pi^k r_\pi + \gamma^n P_\pi^n V∑k<n​γkPπk​rπ​+γnPπn​V, which would make the goal a two-line matrix inequality.
  • The estimate is fixed. In the algorithm, Vt+n−1V_{t+n-1}Vt+n−1​ is the current random estimate. Every statement takes a fixed function VVV (or QQQ), which is the book's own reading ("if the value estimates don't change"). The only exception is Exercise 7.4, whose estimates QkQ_kQk​ are indexed by time k∈Zk \in \mathbb Zk∈Z exactly as in (7.6).
  • Discounting. The goal assumes 0≤γ<10 \le \gamma < 10≤γ<1 and takes the maximum over all states. Episodic tasks enter through absorbing zero-reward terminal states. The undiscounted episodic case γ=1\gamma = 1γ=1 is not stated.
  • Episodes. Sample-path identities use sequences Sk,Ak,RkS_k, A_k, R_kSk​,Ak​,Rk​ and a termination time TTT. The book's convention that terminal states have value 000 is a hypothesis (V(ST)=0V(S_T) = 0V(ST​)=0, Q(ST,⋅)=0Q(S_T, \cdot) = 0Q(ST​,⋅)=0).
  • Exercise 7.6 is stated for the state-value return (7.13) of p. 150, although the exercise follows the action-value return (7.14). Its conclusion includes, besides the literal "does not change the expected value", equality with the on-policy expected return, the property the book states on p. 150. Coverage (π(a∣s)>0⇒b(a∣s)>0\pi(a\mid s) > 0 \Rightarrow b(a\mid s) > 0π(a∣s)>0⇒b(a∣s)>0) is assumed.
  • Not stated. The convergence of nnn-step TD methods "under appropriate technical conditions" (p. 144), and the programming exercises.

Needed infrastructure: finite sums over function types, Chapman–Kolmogorov for the segment distribution, summability of ∑kγkPπkrπ\sum_k \gamma^k P_\pi^k r_\pi∑k​γkPπk​rπ​. The trajectory layer is reusable for the importance-sampling and eligibility-trace chapters. Alternative proofs of the goal, and proofs of the undiscounted episodic version as a separate theorem, are welcome.

Selected references

  • R. S. Sutton and A. G. Barto, Reinforcement Learning: An Introduction, 2nd ed., MIT Press, 2018, ISBN 9780262039246, Chapter 7, pp. 141–158. http://incompleteideas.net/book/the-book-2nd.html
  • C. J. C. H. Watkins, Learning from Delayed Rewards, PhD thesis, University of Cambridge, 1989 (the nnn-step return and its error reduction property, as credited on p. 158 of the book). https://www.cs.rhul.ac.uk/~chrisw/new_thesis.pdf
  • D. Precup, R. S. Sutton and S. Singh, Eligibility traces for off-policy policy evaluation, Proceedings of the 17th International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML), 2000, pp. 759–766 (the tree-backup algorithm, as credited on p. 158 of the book; no DOI).
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CombinatoricsComputational GeometryDiscrete Geometry+1·Captain: mikedeng1

A Polynomial Time Algorithm for Counting Integral Points in Polyhedra When the Dimension is Fixed: The Lattice-Point Count of an Integral Simplex Is a Short Signed Sum over Primitive ConesResearch Paper

Counting lattice points in fixed dimension

How many integral points does a polytope contain? The question arises in integer programming, where it measures the size of a feasible set, in combinatorics, where many enumeration problems are lattice-point counts in a polytope (contingency tables, magic squares, flows), in the representation theory of Lie groups, and in the analysis of loop nests in compilers. Counting is #P-hard when the dimension is part of the input, so the natural question is whether the count can be computed in polynomial time when the dimension ddd is fixed.

Timeline:

  • 1899. In dimension 222, Pick's formula leads to a polynomial algorithm.
  • 1983. Lenstra shows that integer feasibility is decidable in polynomial time for fixed ddd (Lenstra 1983). Deciding whether a lattice point exists does not count them.
  • 1988, 1992. Brion proves that the exponential sum over the lattice points of a rational polytope is the sum of the exponential sums of its vertex cones.
  • 1991. Dyer gives polynomial algorithms in dimensions 333 and 444, based on Dedekind sums (Dyer 1991).
  • 1994. Barvinok proves that for every fixed ddd the number of lattice points of an integral simplex, and hence of a rational polyhedron, can be computed in polynomial time (Barvinok 1994). The algorithm was later implemented (LattE, barvinok) and is the standard method.

Setting

Points of Rd\mathbb{R}^dRd have real coordinates and ⟨c,x⟩=∑lclxl\langle c,x\rangle=\sum_l c_lx_l⟨c,x⟩=∑l​cl​xl​. For integral vectors u1,…,uk∈Zdu_1,\dots,u_k\in\mathbb{Z}^du1​,…,uk​∈Zd, the rational cone they generate is co⁡{u1,…,uk}={∑iλiui:λi≥0}\operatorname{co}\{u_1,\dots,u_k\}=\{\sum_i\lambda_iu_i:\lambda_i\ge0\}co{u1​,…,uk​}={∑i​λi​ui​:λi​≥0}. The generators are simple if they are linearly independent, and primitive if moreover they form a basis of the lattice Zd∩Lin⁡{u1,…,uk}\mathbb{Z}^d\cap\operatorname{Lin}\{u_1,\dots,u_k\}Zd∩Lin{u1​,…,uk​}.

The index Ind⁡K\operatorname{Ind}KIndK of the cone given by simple generators is the number of integral points in the semi-open parallelepiped Π={∑iαiui:0≤αi<1}\Pi=\{\sum_i\alpha_iu_i:0\le\alpha_i<1\}Π={∑i​αi​ui​:0≤αi​<1}. It equals 111 exactly for primitive generators.

The exponential sum of KKK is σ(K;c)=∑x∈K∩Zde⟨c,x⟩\sigma(K;c)=\sum_{x\in K\cap\mathbb{Z}^d}e^{\langle c,x\rangle}σ(K;c)=∑x∈K∩Zd​e⟨c,x⟩. Where it converges it has the closed form

σ(K;c)=(∑x∈Π∩Zde⟨c,x⟩)∏i=1k11−e⟨c,ui⟩,\sigma(K;c)=\Bigl(\sum_{x\in\Pi\cap\mathbb{Z}^d}e^{\langle c,x\rangle}\Bigr)\prod_{i=1}^k\frac{1}{1-e^{\langle c,u_i\rangle}},σ(K;c)=(x∈Π∩Zd∑​e⟨c,x⟩)i=1∏k​1−e⟨c,ui​⟩1​,

and this closed form defines σ\sigmaσ at every regular point, i.e. every ccc with ⟨c,ui⟩≠0\langle c,u_i\rangle\ne0⟨c,ui​⟩=0 for all iii.

An integral simplex is Δ=conv⁡{v1,…,vk+1}\Delta=\operatorname{conv}\{v_1,\dots,v_{k+1}\}Δ=conv{v1​,…,vk+1​} with affinely independent vj∈Zdv_j\in\mathbb{Z}^dvj​∈Zd. Its supporting cone at a vertex vvv is Kv={u:v+δu∈Δ for all sufficiently small δ>0}K_v=\{u:v+\delta u\in\Delta\text{ for all sufficiently small }\delta>0\}Kv​={u:v+δu∈Δ for all sufficiently small δ>0}. A signed decomposition K=∑iεiKiK=\sum_i\varepsilon_iK_iK=∑i​εi​Ki​ with integers εi\varepsilon_iεi​ means χK=∑iεiχKi\chi_K=\sum_i\varepsilon_i\chi_{K_i}χK​=∑i​εi​χKi​​ on all of Rd\mathbb{R}^dRd. The constant term of the Laurent expansion of fff at t=0t=0t=0 is the coefficient of t0t^0t0 in the expansion of fff around its pole at 000.

Formalization targets

Goal: the short signed formula (Theorem 1.2, mathematical content)

For d≥2d\ge2d≥2 and every integral simplex Δ⊆Rd\Delta\subseteq\mathbb{R}^dΔ⊆Rd there are, for each vertex vjv_jvj​, primitive cones Kj,iK_{j,i}Kj,i​ and integers εj,i\varepsilon_{j,i}εj,i​ with Kvj=∑iεj,iKj,iK_{v_j}=\sum_i\varepsilon_{j,i}K_{j,i}Kvj​​=∑i​εj,i​Kj,i​ and at most (2d)Tj(2^d)^{T_j}(2d)Tj​ terms. Here TjT_jTj​ is the smallest integer

Tj≥−log⁡log⁡1.9+log⁡log⁡Ind⁡jlog⁡d−log⁡(d−1),T_j\ge\frac{-\log\log1.9+\log\log\operatorname{Ind}_j}{\log d-\log(d-1)},Tj​≥logd−log(d−1)−loglog1.9+loglogIndj​​,

and Ind⁡j\operatorname{Ind}_jIndj​ is the index of the edge vectors at vjv_jvj​. Moreover, for every ccc orthogonal to no generator of any Kj,iK_{j,i}Kj,i​,

#(Δ∩Zd)=∑j∑iεj,i R(Kj,i,vj,c),\#(\Delta\cap\mathbb{Z}^d)=\sum_j\sum_i\varepsilon_{j,i}\,R(K_{j,i},v_j,c),#(Δ∩Zd)=j∑​i∑​εj,i​R(Kj,i​,vj​,c),

where R(K,v,c)R(K,v,c)R(K,v,c) is the constant term at t=0t=0t=0 of t↦et⟨c,v⟩σ(K;tc)t\mapsto e^{t\langle c,v\rangle}\sigma(K;tc)t↦et⟨c,v⟩σ(K;tc).

Milestones

  1. Proposition 2.4 with Remark 2.5: the closed form of σ\sigmaσ for simple cones.
  2. Proposition 4.1: for primitive cones, σ(K;c)=∏i(1−e⟨c,ui⟩)−1\sigma(K;c)=\prod_i(1-e^{\langle c,u_i\rangle})^{-1}σ(K;c)=∏i​(1−e⟨c,ui​⟩)−1.
  3. Proposition 2.7 (Brion), for integral simplices.
  4. Corollary 4.2: R(K,v,c)=Qk(x;y)∏ixi−1R(K,v,c)=Q_k(x;y)\prod_ix_i^{-1}R(K,v,c)=Qk​(x;y)∏i​xi−1​ with deg⁡Qk≤k\deg Q_k\le kdegQk​≤k.
  5. Primitive generators iff Ind⁡K=1\operatorname{Ind}K=1IndK=1 (§5).
  6. Lemma 5.2: a short lattice vector www with Ind⁡Kj≤(Ind⁡K)(d−1)/d\operatorname{Ind}K_j\le(\operatorname{Ind}K)^{(d-1)/d}IndKj​≤(IndK)(d−1)/d.
  7. Lemma 5.3: at most 2d2^d2d cones of smaller index, with signs ±1\pm1±1.
  8. Theorem 5.4: decomposition into at most (2d)T(2^d)^T(2d)T primitive cones.
  9. The display in the proof of Theorem 5.4: (2d)T≤C1(d)(log⁡Ind⁡K)C2(d)(2^d)^T\le C_1(d)(\log\operatorname{Ind}K)^{C_2(d)}(2d)T≤C1​(d)(logIndK)C2​(d).
  10. Lemma 6.1: some c(t)=(1,t,…,td−1)c(t)=(1,t,\dots,t^{d-1})c(t)=(1,t,…,td−1), t∈{0,…,m(d−1)}t\in\{0,\dots,m(d-1)\}t∈{0,…,m(d−1)}, is orthogonal to none of mmm nonzero vectors.

Significance

The goal is the reason Barvinok's algorithm is polynomial. For fixed ddd, the number of terms is bounded by a polynomial in log⁡Ind⁡K\log\operatorname{Ind}KlogIndK, which is polynomial in the input size. Each term is an explicit rational function of inner products (Corollary 4.2). The identity therefore turns lattice-point counting into the evaluation of a short sum. Its consequences include polynomial-time counting for rational polyhedra in fixed dimension, polynomial-time computation of Ehrhart quasi-polynomials, and the theory of short rational generating functions (Barvinok–Woods), which underlies algorithms for parametric integer programming.

The result is proved and classical. As far as known it has not been machine-checked: Mathlib has convex cones, Minkowski's convex body theorem and lattices, but no signed cone decompositions, no generating functions of cones and no Brion identity. The mission produces a formal account of the algorithm's correctness and of the size of its output. Its milestones are statements of independent use: the closed form of cone generating functions, Brion's identity for simplices, and the index-reduction lemma.

Difficulty

The obvious approach is to triangulate the supporting cones into unimodular (primitive) cones. This fails: a cone of index Ind⁡K\operatorname{Ind}KIndK may need about Ind⁡K\operatorname{Ind}KIndK unimodular cones in any triangulation, which is exponential in the input size. The step that makes the count small is signed decomposition. Signed decomposition uses cones that are not contained in KKK, combined with signs ±1\pm1±1, and controls the index through the geometry of numbers rather than through a subdivision of KKK. The second difficulty is that c=0c=0c=0, where the exponential sum equals the count, is a singular point of every σ(Ki;⋅)\sigma(K_i;\cdot)σ(Ki​;⋅). The count is recovered as a constant term of a Laurent expansion, so every identity has to be valid as an identity of meromorphic functions on regular points, and not only where the series converge.

Formalization scope

  • Points of Rd\mathbb{R}^dRd are Fin d → ℝ, integral vectors Fin d → ℤ used through their real cast, and ⟨⋅,⋅⟩\langle\cdot,\cdot\rangle⟨⋅,⋅⟩ is dotProduct. A cone is given by its generator list, because index, parallelepiped and the closed form of σ\sigmaσ depend on the generators. Logarithms are natural, and ∣u∣|u|∣u∣ is the sup norm.
  • Theorem 1.2 is represented by its mathematical content. The paper's statement is "there exists a polynomial time algorithm". No machine model is formalized. The goal is the identity proved on p. 778, with the count of the proof of Theorem 5.4 (p. 777). The algorithmic clauses of Lemmas 5.2, 5.3, 6.1 and Theorem 5.4 are each replaced by the existence statement of the object the algorithm constructs. Lemma 5.3(c), whose constant is unquantified, is omitted.
  • Over R\mathbb{R}R. The paper uses c∈Cdc\in\mathbb{C}^dc∈Cd only to speak of meromorphic functions. Here ccc is real, σ\sigmaσ is defined by its closed form, and regularity means ⟨c,ui⟩≠0\langle c,u_i\rangle\ne0⟨c,ui​⟩=0 for every generator. The constant term is a predicate: tNf(t)t^Nf(t)tNf(t) agrees near 000 with a real-analytic function whose NNN-th Taylor coefficient is the value.
  • Added hypotheses. These are d≥2d\ge2d≥2 wherever TTT appears, k≥1k\ge1k≥1 in Lemma 5.2, d≥1d\ge1d≥1 in Lemma 5.3, ui≠0u_i\ne0ui​=0 in Lemma 6.1, and Ind⁡K≥2\operatorname{Ind}K\ge2IndK≥2 in the display bound. T=0T=0T=0 when the index is 111. Brion's identity is stated for integral simplices, the only case the proof uses.
  • Trivializations ruled out. σ\sigmaσ is never an infinite sum, which would take a junk value off its convergence region. "Primitive" means a lattice basis and not mere linear independence; with the weaker notion the decomposition is trivial. Decompositions hold for every x∈Rdx\in\mathbb{R}^dx∈Rd, not only on Zd\mathbb{Z}^dZd. The halfspace of Lemma 5.2 is linear, since an affine one would make it vacuous.
  • Infrastructure. A complete development needs generating functions of simplicial cones, Brion's theorem for simplices, the identity theorem for rational functions in ec1,…,ecde^{c_1},\dots,e^{c_d}ec1​,…,ecd​, Minkowski's theorem on a sublattice, and inclusion–exclusion for triangulations. Each is reusable beyond this mission, and contributions of any of these pieces are welcome.

Selected references

  • A. I. Barvinok, A polynomial time algorithm for counting integral points in polyhedra when the dimension is fixed, Mathematics of Operations Research 19(4), 1994, 769–779. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.19.4.769
  • M. Brion, Points entiers dans les polyèdres convexes, Annales scientifiques de l'École Normale Supérieure 21(4), 1988, 653–663. https://doi.org/10.24033/asens.1572
  • M. Dyer, On counting lattice points in polyhedra, SIAM Journal on Computing 20(4), 1991, 695–707. https://doi.org/10.1137/0220044
  • H. W. Lenstra Jr., Integer programming with a fixed number of variables, Mathematics of Operations Research 8(4), 1983, 538–548. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.8.4.538
  • R. P. Stanley, Enumerative Combinatorics, Vol. 1, Wadsworth & Brooks/Cole, 1986, §4.6. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4615-9763-6
  • A. Barvinok, K. Woods, Short rational generating functions for lattice point problems, Journal of the AMS 16(4), 2003, 957–979. https://doi.org/10.1090/S0894-0347-03-00428-4
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Machine LearningProbabilityReinforcement Learning·Captain: mikedeng1

Minimax Regret Bounds for Reinforcement Learning I: High-Probability Regret Bound for UCBVI with a Chernoff–Hoeffding BonusResearch Paper

Motivation

An agent learning to control an unknown environment must balance rewards it can collect now against information that improves later decisions. In a finite Markov decision process (MDP), every action changes the distribution of the next state, so a mistaken transition estimate can affect decisions many steps later. Regret measures this loss against a policy that already knows the transition probabilities. The paper of Azar, Osband and Munos gives high-probability regret bounds for two variants of upper confidence bound value iteration (UCBVI) in finite-horizon reinforcement learning. This mission targets its Chernoff–Hoeffding variant, UCBVI-CH, whose bonus depends only on the horizon and the visit count. Theorem 1 improves the paper's cited earlier dependence on the number of states from SSS to S\sqrt SS​ in the leading term for sufficiently many interactions. Azar, Osband and Munos, 2017, pp. 2, 4–5.

The paper was released in 2017 alongside work on the attainable dependence of episodic regret on the horizon HHH, state count SSS, action count AAA, and total interaction time TTT. Its second algorithm, UCBVI-BF, uses a variance-dependent bonus and is the subject of the next mission in this series. UCBVI-CH has a simpler bonus and its own explicit bound, making it a distinct mathematical target. Azar, Osband and Munos, 2017, pp. 1–5.

Setting

The state set S\mathcal SS and action set A\mathcal AA are finite and nonempty, with cardinalities SSS and AAA. A stationary transition kernel P(y∣x,a)P(y\mid x,a)P(y∣x,a) gives the probability of moving to state yyy after action aaa in state xxx; each row is nonnegative and sums to one. The known, deterministic reward R(x,a)R(x,a)R(x,a) lies in [0,1][0,1][0,1]. An episode lasts H≥1H\ge1H≥1 steps. The environment chooses its starting state xk,1x_{k,1}xk,1​ before episode kkk and may base that choice on earlier episodes. It cannot see the current episode's future random draws. Azar, Osband and Munos, 2017, §2 and Assumption 1, pp. 2–3.

A policy π\piπ selects an action from the current state and the step number. Its value Vhπ(x)V_h^\pi(x)Vhπ​(x) is the expected sum of rewards from step hhh through step HHH when starting in state xxx. The terminal value is VH+1π=0V_{H+1}^\pi=0VH+1π​=0, and Vh∗(x)V_h^*(x)Vh∗​(x) is the maximum of Vhπ(x)V_h^\pi(x)Vhπ​(x) over all such policies. Since the state, action and step sets are finite, this maximum is over a finite nonempty policy class. The paper's sentence describing H−hH-hH−h rewards uses a shifted terminal convention; this series follows the HHH reward steps of Algorithms 1–2. Azar, Osband and Munos, 2017, pp. 3–4.

At the start of episode kkk, UCBVI-CH forms visit counts Nk(x,a,y)N_k(x,a,y)Nk​(x,a,y) and Nk(x,a)N_k(x,a)Nk​(x,a) from earlier completed transitions. On a visited pair it uses the empirical row P^k(y∣x,a)=Nk(x,a,y)/Nk(x,a)\widehat P_k(y\mid x,a)=N_k(x,a,y)/N_k(x,a)Pk​(y∣x,a)=Nk​(x,a,y)/Nk​(x,a). Algorithm 2 computes values backward from zero at the terminal step. For a visited pair, Qk,h(x,a)Q_{k,h}(x,a)Qk,h​(x,a) is the minimum of the preceding episode's Qk−1,h(x,a)Q_{k-1,h}(x,a)Qk−1,h​(x,a), HHH, and the empirical Bellman value plus Algorithm 3's bonus. For an unvisited pair, Qk,h(x,a)=HQ_{k,h}(x,a)=HQk,h​(x,a)=H. A maximizing action is chosen at every state, including states outside the realized path. Azar, Osband and Munos, 2017, Algorithms 1–3, pp. 3–4.

Formalization targets

Theorem 1: UCBVI-CH regret

For KKK episodes and T=KHT=KHT=KH, regret sums the gap V1∗(xk,1)−V1πk(xk,1)V_1^*(x_{k,1})-V_1^{\pi_k}(x_{k,1})V1∗​(xk,1​)−V1πk​​(xk,1​). The goal is the paper's printed bound, with its constants:

Pr⁡ ⁣{Regret⁡(K)>20H3/2LSAK+250H2S2AL2}≤δ,L=ln⁡(5HSAT/δ),δ>0.\Pr\!\left\{\operatorname{Regret}(K)>20H^{3/2}L\sqrt{SAK}+250H^2S^2AL^2\right\}\le\delta, \qquad L=\ln(5HSAT/\delta),\quad \delta>0.Pr{Regret(K)>20H3/2LSAK​+250H2S2AL2}≤δ,L=ln(5HSAT/δ),δ>0.

Algorithm 3 itself uses Lalg=ln⁡(5SAT/δ)L_{\rm alg}=\ln(5SAT/\delta)Lalg​=ln(5SAT/δ) in its bonus 7HLalg/Nk(x,a)7HL_{\rm alg}/\sqrt{N_k(x,a)}7HLalg​/Nk​(x,a)​. Both logarithms remain as printed. The probability is over the MDP's next-state draws, for every admissible starting-state rule and every way of breaking ties between maximizing actions. Azar, Osband and Munos, 2017, Algorithm 3, p. 4; Theorem 1, p. 5.

Supporting results

Four milestones retain the source's indexed attack path: the Bernstein bound (9) for the empirical value error, the count-deviation display before (11), Lemma 18 on optimism, and the weighted recursion displayed in the proof of Lemma 3. The last milestone preserves the signed weights that appear before the paper's final simplification. Azar, Osband and Munos, 2017, pp. 17, 20–21, 28.

Significance

Theorem 1 gives a finite-sample failure probability with explicit dependence on H,S,A,KH,S,A,KH,S,A,K and δ\deltaδ. It covers a learner whose initial state can change between episodes, a feature that matters in episodic learning where the experimenter does not fix a single starting distribution. For the regime stated after Theorem 1, the leading rate is O~(HSAT)\widetilde O(H\sqrt{SAT})O(HSAT​). This is a result claimed by the paper; the present Lean declarations are open proof targets, not machine-checked proofs of that claim. Azar, Osband and Munos, 2017, p. 5.

Formalizing the result creates reusable finite objects for adaptive interaction: a constructed probability law on complete paths, empirical transition counts pooled across steps, a policy value defined by its expected reward, and confidence events with their domains stated explicitly. The concentration and optimism milestones can then be investigated independently of the final regret bound. The later UCBVI-BF mission uses the same paper's model with a different bonus. Azar, Osband and Munos, 2017, pp. 3–5, 14–17.

Difficulty

The visit count Nk(x,a)N_k(x,a)Nk​(x,a) is random and depends on earlier observations and decisions. A concentration inequality for a predetermined number of samples therefore does not immediately give a statement that holds at every episode start. The algorithm also reuses the previous episode's QQQ estimate through a minimum. Any optimism claim must account for this dependence across episodes as well as the backward dependence across steps. In the regret analysis, the terms called martingale differences can have either sign, so replacing a positive weight by a larger common bound can reverse an inequality. These are concrete obstacles to the printed chain of estimates. Azar, Osband and Munos, 2017, pp. 4, 17, 20–21, 28.

Formalization scope

States, actions, steps, episodes and complete outcome arrays are finite. Probabilities are finite sums of products of transition rows. The transition-row predicate is a published general definition; this mission defines the paper-specific reward-bounded MDP, policies, UCBVI-CH recursion, and path law on top of it. The starting-state rule can inspect only earlier episodes. Greedy tie-breaking is universally quantified. V∗V^*V∗ is a maximum over policies, and the bonus is read only at positive counts. A model that assigns an arbitrary probability law, fixes one starting state, or omits Algorithm 2's minimum does not represent this target. Azar, Osband and Munos, 2017, pp. 2–4.

Lean uses steps 0,…,H−10,\dots,H-10,…,H−1 and terminal index HHH in place of the paper's algorithmic 1,…,H+11,\dots,H+11,…,H+1. The appendix sometimes puts the terminal value at HHH. The weighted recursion therefore runs through the final reward step, rather than ending one step early. Its typical-state threshold is 4H2L4H^2L4H2L, as required by (34)–(36), whereas Appendix B.1 prints 2H2L2H^2L2H2L. The proof's correction term c4c_4c4​ dominates its other terms under A≥2A\ge2A≥2, which is made explicit in that milestone. The printed (11) loses a factor of two from the count display before it; only the preceding display is a milestone. Lemma 18 is stated under the empirical-model part of the confidence event and δ≤1\delta\le1δ≤1, the domain on which its bonus comparison holds. The weighted milestone retains its coefficients because the bracketed martingale terms can be negative. Azar, Osband and Munos, 2017, pp. 14–17, 20–21, 28.

The goal retains Theorem 1's constant 202020. Appendix C.1 cites Lemmas 15 and 18, but the sketch of Lemma 15 does not track that constant explicitly. Formalizing the printed bound may therefore expose a gap in its proof; the mission records the claim without weakening its constants. Contributions establishing or repairing the explicit bound, as well as the four stated milestones and reusable finite concentration results, are within scope. Azar, Osband and Munos, 2017, pp. 5, 27, 29.

Selected references

  • M. G. Azar, I. Osband and R. Munos, Minimax Regret Bounds for Reinforcement Learning, arXiv:1703.05449v2, 2017. Pinned preprint.
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Machine LearningMarkov ChainReinforcement Learning+1·Captain: mikedeng1

Reinforcement Learning: An Introduction VI: Batch TD(0) Converges to the Certainty-Equivalence EstimateTextbook

Why batch TD(0) and batch Monte Carlo disagree

Temporal-difference (TD) learning estimates the value of each state of a Markov reward process from observed experience, updating an estimate toward a target built from the next reward and the current estimate of the next state. Monte Carlo (MC) methods instead update toward the full observed return. Both are standard prediction methods in reinforcement learning, and their relationship is a recurring question of the field (Sutton 1988).

When only a finite amount of experience is available, a common practice is to present the same data repeatedly until the estimates stop changing. Chapter 6 of Sutton and Barto's Reinforcement Learning: An Introduction (2nd ed., MIT Press, 2018) uses this setting to explain why TD(0) is often faster: under such batch updating, both methods converge deterministically, but to different answers. Batch MC finds the least-squares fit to the observed returns; batch TD(0) finds the value function of the maximum-likelihood Markov model of the data, the certainty-equivalence estimate. The comparison appears in §6.3, Optimality of TD(0) (pp. 126–128), and is illustrated by Example 6.4, You are the Predictor. The book states these conclusions without proof. This mission formalizes them.

Setting

Let S\mathcal SS be a finite set of nonterminal states and S+=S∪{terminal}\mathcal S^+ = \mathcal S \cup \{\text{terminal}\}S+=S∪{terminal}. An episode is a finite sequence S0,R1,S1,…,ST−1,RT,STS_0, R_1, S_1, \dots, S_{T-1}, R_T, S_TS0​,R1​,S1​,…,ST−1​,RT​,ST​ with S0,…,ST−1∈SS_0, \dots, S_{T-1} \in \mathcal SS0​,…,ST−1​∈S, real rewards R1,…,RTR_1, \dots, R_TR1​,…,RT​, and STS_TST​ terminal. A batch is a finite list of episodes. A visit of sss is an (episode, time t<Tt < Tt<T) pair with St=sS_t = sSt​=s, and n(s)n(s)n(s) counts all visits (every-visit counting).

A value array V:S→RV : \mathcal S \to \mathbb RV:S→R is extended by V(terminal)=0V(\text{terminal}) = 0V(terminal)=0. For a discount rate γ∈[0,1]\gamma \in [0,1]γ∈[0,1], the return is Gt=∑k=t+1Tγk−t−1RkG_t = \sum_{k=t+1}^{T}\gamma^{k-t-1}R_kGt​=∑k=t+1T​γk−t−1Rk​ and the TD error is δt=Rt+1+γV(St+1)−V(St)\delta_t = R_{t+1} + \gamma V(S_{t+1}) - V(S_t)δt​=Rt+1​+γV(St+1​)−V(St​).

Batch TD(0) with step size α\alphaα computes the TD(0) increment for every visit in the batch and changes VVV once, by their sum:

Vm+1(s)=Vm(s)+α∑visits t of s[Rt+1+γVm(St+1)−Vm(St)].V_{m+1}(s) = V_m(s) + \alpha\sum_{\text{visits } t \text{ of } s}\big[R_{t+1} + \gamma V_m(S_{t+1}) - V_m(S_t)\big].Vm+1​(s)=Vm​(s)+αvisits t of s∑​[Rt+1​+γVm​(St+1​)−Vm​(St​)].

Batch constant-α\alphaα MC is the same iteration with the increment Gt−Vm(St)G_t - V_m(S_t)Gt​−Vm​(St​).

The maximum-likelihood model of the batch has transition probabilities p^(j∣i)=N(i,j)/n(i)\hat p(j \mid i) = N(i,j)/n(i)p^​(j∣i)=N(i,j)/n(i), where N(i,j)N(i,j)N(i,j) counts the observed transitions from iii to j∈S+j \in \mathcal S^+j∈S+, and expected rewards r^(i,j)\hat r(i,j)r^(i,j) equal to the average reward observed on those transitions. With P^=(p^(s′∣s))s,s′∈S\hat P = (\hat p(s'\mid s))_{s,s'\in\mathcal S}P^=(p^​(s′∣s))s,s′∈S​ and r^(s)=∑jp^(j∣s)r^(s,j)\hat r(s) = \sum_j \hat p(j\mid s)\hat r(s,j)r^(s)=∑j​p^​(j∣s)r^(s,j), the certainty-equivalence estimate is the value function of this Markov reward process,

v^(s)=∑k≥0γk(P^kr^)(s).\hat v(s) = \sum_{k\ge0}\gamma^k\big(\hat P^k\hat r\big)(s).v^(s)=k≥0∑​γk(P^kr^)(s).

Formalization targets

Goal: batch TD(0) converges to the certainty-equivalence estimate

For every finite batch and every γ∈[0,1]\gamma \in [0,1]γ∈[0,1], the series defining v^\hat vv^ converges, and there is αˉ>0\bar\alpha > 0αˉ>0 such that for all α∈(0,αˉ)\alpha \in (0,\bar\alpha)α∈(0,αˉ) and all initial arrays V0V_0V0​,

lim⁡m→∞Vm(s)=v^(s)for every visited s,Vm(s)=V0(s) otherwise.\lim_{m\to\infty} V_m(s) = \hat v(s)\quad\text{for every visited } s, \qquad V_m(s) = V_0(s)\ \text{otherwise}.m→∞lim​Vm​(s)=v^(s)for every visited s,Vm​(s)=V0​(s) otherwise.

The limit depends neither on α\alphaα nor on V0V_0V0​ at visited states.

Milestones

  1. (6.6): with VVV held fixed, Gt−V(St)=∑k=tT−1γk−tδkG_t - V(S_t) = \sum_{k=t}^{T-1}\gamma^{k-t}\delta_kGt​−V(St​)=∑k=tT−1​γk−tδk​.
  2. Exercise 6.8: the same identity for action values, δt=Rt+1+γQ(St+1,At+1)−Q(St,At)\delta_t = R_{t+1} + \gamma Q(S_{t+1},A_{t+1}) - Q(S_t,A_t)δt​=Rt+1​+γQ(St+1​,At+1​)−Q(St​,At​).
  3. Least squares: the sample averages Gˉ(s)\bar G(s)Gˉ(s) of the returns after the visits to sss minimize ∑visits(Gt−V(St))2\sum_{\text{visits}}(G_t - V(S_t))^2∑visits​(Gt​−V(St​))2 over all arrays VVV.
  4. Batch MC: for small α\alphaα, batch constant-α\alphaα MC converges to Gˉ(s)\bar G(s)Gˉ(s) at every visited sss.
  5. Fixed points: the batch TD(0) increments vanish everywhere if and only if V=v^V = \hat vV=v^ on visited states.
  6. Example 6.4: on the eight episodes A,0,B,0A,0,B,0A,0,B,0; B,1B,1B,1 (six times); B,0B,0B,0 with γ=1\gamma = 1γ=1, the certainty-equivalence estimate is v^(A)=v^(B)=3/4\hat v(A) = \hat v(B) = 3/4v^(A)=v^(B)=3/4 and batch TD(0) converges to it, while batch MC converges to V(A)=0V(A) = 0V(A)=0, V(B)=3/4V(B) = 3/4V(B)=3/4.

Significance

The result explains the empirical observation of Figure 6.2 in the book: batch TD(0) has lower error than batch MC on Markov data, because it computes the certainty-equivalence estimate, while batch MC fits the training returns. It also gives a precise meaning to the claim that TD methods approximate the certainty-equivalence solution with memory linear in the number of states, where computing it directly needs a model of quadratic size and cubic time (p. 128). Identity (6.6) is the starting point of the nnn-step and eligibility-trace methods of later chapters.

The comparison under repeated presentation of a finite training set goes back to Sutton 1988, but the textbook states the conclusions without proof, and no machine-checked version is known to exist. The formalization pins down every hypothesis the text leaves implicit: the step-size threshold, the treatment of unvisited states, every-visit counting, and the undiscounted case.

Difficulty

The fixed-point equation of batch TD(0) is D(r^+γP^V−V)=0D(\hat r + \gamma\hat PV - V) = 0D(r^+γP^V−V)=0 on visited states, with DDD the diagonal of visit counts, and convergence of the iteration V↦V+αD(r^+γP^V−V)V \mapsto V + \alpha D(\hat r + \gamma\hat P V - V)V↦V+αD(r^+γP^V−V) requires every eigenvalue of D(I−γP^)D(I - \gamma\hat P)D(I−γP^) to have positive real part. For γ<1\gamma < 1γ<1 this follows from P^\hat PP^ being substochastic. For γ=1\gamma = 1γ=1, the case of Example 6.4, P^\hat PP^ is only substochastic and the naive contraction argument fails: invertibility of I−P^I - \hat PI−P^ must be derived from the structure of the data, since every episode ends in the terminal state. The matrix D(I−γP^)D(I - \gamma\hat P)D(I−γP^) is not symmetric, so symmetric positive-definiteness arguments do not apply. The same issue makes convergence of the series defining v^\hat vv^ nontrivial at γ=1\gamma = 1γ=1.

Formalization scope

An episode is a Lean List (X × ℝ) of transitions (St,Rt+1)(S_t, R_{t+1})(St​,Rt+1​), with the terminal state represented by none : Option X; a batch is a list of episodes; states form a Fintype. Values at the terminal state are 000 by definition. The certainty-equivalence estimate is defined from returns as the series ∑kγkP^kr^\sum_k\gamma^k\hat P^k\hat r∑k​γkP^kr^, not as the solution of a Bellman equation, and its convergence is part of the goal, not assumed. "Sufficiently small α\alphaα" is an existential threshold αˉ>0\bar\alpha > 0αˉ>0 quantified before α\alphaα and V0V_0V0​; a statement for one fixed α\alphaα, or for some α\alphaα, would be weaker than the book's and is ruled out. Unvisited states receive no increment and keep their initial value; the goal records this rather than claiming convergence to v^\hat vv^ there. The standing assumption γ∈[0,1]\gamma \in [0,1]γ∈[0,1] includes γ=1\gamma = 1γ=1. Every visit is counted in both the TD increments and the model; mixing first-visit and every-visit counts would make the goal false.

The mission needs only finite sums, matrix powers and limits of real sequences; Mathlib's Matrix and Filter.Tendsto suffice. A lemma that a nonnegative matrix whose rows reach an absorbing mass has spectral radius below one would be reusable beyond this mission, as would a convergence criterion for V↦V+α(b−MV)V \mapsto V + \alpha(b - MV)V↦V+α(b−MV) when MMM is a nonsingular M-matrix. Contributions of either kind, and of the elementary milestones 1–3, are welcome.

Selected references

  • Richard S. Sutton and Andrew G. Barto, Reinforcement Learning: An Introduction, 2nd ed., MIT Press, 2018, ISBN 9780262039246, §6.1 and §6.3, pp. 119–129. http://incompleteideas.net/book/the-book-2nd.html
  • Richard S. Sutton, Learning to predict by the methods of temporal differences, Machine Learning 3, 9–44, 1988. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00115009
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Secretary Problems: Weights and Discounts 4: A Threshold Rule Earns Z/4 for Any Z ≤ E[OPT] in the Discounted Secretary ProblemResearch Paper

Motivation

In the classical secretary problem a decision maker sees nnn candidates in a uniformly random order and must accept or reject each one on arrival, irrevocably, aiming to accept a valuable one. Its online, random-order structure models hiring, selling an item to sequentially arriving buyers, and posting prices in online markets. Babaioff, Dinitz, Gupta, Immorlica and Talwar (SODA 2009) study the discounted secretary problem, where the reward of a selection depends on when it is made: a candidate accepted late is worth less (or more) by a time-dependent factor, as with a seller whose revenue decays with time, or a firm that loses value the longer a position stays empty.

Timeline of the setting:

  • Dynkin (1963) introduced the classical problem; the rule "observe a 1/e1/e1/e fraction, then accept the first record" selects the best candidate with probability tending to 1/e1/e1/e.
  • Rasmussen and Pliska (1975/76) and Mahdian, McAfee and Pennock (2008, personal communication cited by the paper) studied secretary problems with specific "well-behaved" discount functions such as d(t)=βtd(t)=\beta^td(t)=βt.
  • Babaioff et al. (2009) treat an arbitrary discount function ddd. Without prior knowledge, no algorithm is better than Ω(log⁡n/log⁡log⁡n)\Omega(\log n/\log\log n)Ω(logn/loglogn)-competitive (their Theorem 4.3), and O(log⁡n)O(\log n)O(logn) is achievable (Theorem 4.4). If the algorithm knows a good estimate ZZZ of the expected offline optimum, a single threshold rule recovers a constant fraction (Theorem 4.7, headlined as Theorem 1.2). This mission formalizes that last result.

Setting

There are n≥1n\ge1n≥1 elements, indexed by Fin n\mathrm{Fin}\,nFinn. Element eee has a value v(e)≥0v(e)\ge0v(e)≥0, and each time t∈{1,…,n}t\in\{1,\dots,n\}t∈{1,…,n} has a discount d(t)≥0d(t)\ge0d(t)≥0. The elements arrive in a uniformly random order π\piπ, a bijection from times to elements: element π(t)\pi(t)π(t) arrives at time ttt. Selecting the element that arrives at time iii earns d(i) v(π(i))d(i)\,v(\pi(i))d(i)v(π(i)), and an algorithm selects at most one element.

The offline optimum on the order π\piπ is OPT(π)=max⁡i=1nd(i) v(π(i))\mathrm{OPT}(\pi)=\max_{i=1}^n d(i)\,v(\pi(i))OPT(π)=maxi=1n​d(i)v(π(i)). It is a random variable, and the benchmark is its expectation

E[OPT]=∑π∈Sn1n!max⁡i=1n{d(i) v(π(i))}.\mathbf E[\mathrm{OPT}]=\sum_{\pi\in S_n}\frac1{n!}\max_{i=1}^n\{d(i)\,v(\pi(i))\}.E[OPT]=π∈Sn​∑​n!1​i=1maxn​{d(i)v(π(i))}.

For a real parameter ZZZ, algorithm A\mathcal AA selects the first time jjj at which d(j) v(π(j))≥Z/2d(j)\,v(\pi(j))\ge Z/2d(j)v(π(j))≥Z/2 and earns that product; if no time qualifies, it selects nothing and earns 000. It knows ZZZ and ddd, sees the values one at a time, and never sees the future of π\piπ. Its expected value is E[A]=∑π∈Sn1n! A(π)\mathbf E[\mathcal A]=\sum_{\pi\in S_n}\frac1{n!}\,\mathcal A(\pi)E[A]=∑π∈Sn​​n!1​A(π).

The proof uses three derived objects:

  • the accepting permutations Sacc={π:max⁡id(i)v(π(i))≥Z/2}S_{acc}=\{\pi:\max_i d(i)v(\pi(i))\ge Z/2\}Sacc​={π:maxi​d(i)v(π(i))≥Z/2}, on which A\mathcal AA selects something;
  • their contribution L=∑π∈Sacc1n!max⁡id(i)v(π(i))L=\sum_{\pi\in S_{acc}}\frac1{n!}\max_i d(i)v(\pi(i))L=∑π∈Sacc​​n!1​maxi​d(i)v(π(i)) to E[OPT]\mathbf E[\mathrm{OPT}]E[OPT];
  • for a time iii and an element jjj, the set GijG_{ij}Gij​ of orders on which A\mathcal AA selects jjj at time iii. These are the orders with π(i)=j\pi(i)=jπ(i)=j and d(k)v(π(k))<Z/2d(k)v(\pi(k))<Z/2d(k)v(π(k))<Z/2 for every k<ik<ik<i.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 4.7

For every n≥1n\ge1n≥1, all discounts d≥0d\ge0d≥0, all values v≥0v\ge0v≥0 and every real ZZZ,

Z≤E[OPT] ⟹ E[A] ≥ Z4.Z\le\mathbf E[\mathrm{OPT}]\ \Longrightarrow\ \mathbf E[\mathcal A]\ \ge\ \frac Z4.Z≤E[OPT] ⟹ E[A] ≥ 4Z​.

Taking Z=E[OPT]Z=\mathbf E[\mathrm{OPT}]Z=E[OPT] gives E[OPT]≤4 E[A]\mathbf E[\mathrm{OPT}]\le4\,\mathbf E[\mathcal A]E[OPT]≤4E[A], a 444-competitive algorithm when the expected optimum is known.

Milestones (in the order of the paper's proof, p. 8)

  1. Eq. (4.1). If Z≤E[OPT]Z\le\mathbf E[\mathrm{OPT}]Z≤E[OPT] then L≥Z/2L\ge Z/2L≥Z/2.
  2. Eq. (4.3). If Z≤E[OPT]Z\le\mathbf E[\mathrm{OPT}]Z≤E[OPT] then
∑i=1n∑j: d(i)v(j)≥Z/21n d(i)v(j) ≥ Z2.\sum_{i=1}^n\sum_{j:\,d(i)v(j)\ge Z/2}\frac1n\,d(i)v(j)\ \ge\ \frac Z2.i=1∑n​j:d(i)v(j)≥Z/2∑​n1​d(i)v(j) ≥ 2Z​.
  1. Eq. (4.4). E[A]=∑i=1n∑j: d(i)v(j)≥Z/2d(i)v(j) ∣Gij∣∣Sn∣\displaystyle\mathbf E[\mathcal A]=\sum_{i=1}^n\sum_{j:\,d(i)v(j)\ge Z/2}d(i)v(j)\,\frac{|G_{ij}|}{|S_n|}E[A]=i=1∑n​j:d(i)v(j)≥Z/2∑​d(i)v(j)∣Sn​∣∣Gij​∣​.
  2. Claim 4.8. For every i,ji,ji,j with d(i)v(j)≥Z/2d(i)v(j)\ge Z/2d(i)v(j)≥Z/2, n∣Gij∣≥∣Sn∖Sacc∣n|G_{ij}|\ge|S_n\setminus S_{acc}|n∣Gij​∣≥∣Sn​∖Sacc​∣; and if 2∣Sacc∣≤n!2|S_{acc}|\le n!2∣Sacc​∣≤n! then 2n∣Gij∣≥n!2n|G_{ij}|\ge n!2n∣Gij​∣≥n!.

Significance

The result. The discounted problem separates sharply by information: a logarithmic gap is unavoidable without prior knowledge, while knowledge of the single number E[OPT]\mathbf E[\mathrm{OPT}]E[OPT], or of any lower estimate ZZZ of it, closes the gap to a constant. The algorithm is a fixed posted threshold, so read as a mechanism it is a posted price, which is truthful for single-parameter agents (§1). The paper also notes that when all values are known, E[OPT]\mathbf E[\mathrm{OPT}]E[OPT] can be estimated by sampling (its Lemma A.1), which yields a constant-competitive algorithm in that setting. The companion lower bound (Theorem 4.6) shows that even complete knowledge of the values does not give a ratio better than 2\sqrt22​.

Formalizing it. The result is proved on paper; no machine-checked proof is known. The formalization yields a checked version of the paper's counting argument on permutations (Claim 4.8) and of the tie-breaking step behind Eq. (4.3), and reusable finite random-order bookkeeping: expectations over SnS_nSn​ as averages, threshold stopping rules, and the decomposition of an online algorithm's value by the time and element it selects.

Difficulty

The obvious argument fails when A\mathcal AA rarely selects. A\mathcal AA earns at least Z/2Z/2Z/2 whenever it selects anything, so E[A]≥Z2Pr⁡[A selects]\mathbf E[\mathcal A]\ge\frac Z2\Pr[\mathcal A\text{ selects}]E[A]≥2Z​Pr[A selects]. That settles the case Pr⁡[A selects]≥1/2\Pr[\mathcal A\text{ selects}]\ge1/2Pr[A selects]≥1/2 and nothing else: the probability of selecting can be tiny while E[OPT]\mathbf E[\mathrm{OPT}]E[OPT] is still large, because the optimum may be concentrated on a few orders with a large product. In that case the bound must come from comparing the algorithm with the optimum pair by pair: every time–element pair (i,j)(i,j)(i,j) with d(i)v(j)≥Z/2d(i)v(j)\ge Z/2d(i)v(j)≥Z/2 must be realized by A\mathcal AA on a positive fraction of the orders.

Two points need care in a formal proof:

  • Eq. (4.2) rewrites LLL as a sum over pairs weighted by the conditional probability that d(i)v(j)d(i)v(j)d(i)v(j) is the highest product. It relies on a consistent tie-breaking rule, which the paper leaves implicit.
  • Claim 4.8 is a counting argument on SnS_nSn​. A map from the rejecting orders into GijG_{ij}Gij​ swaps element jjj into position iii, and must be shown to be at most nnn-to-111 and to land in GijG_{ij}Gij​.

Neither (4.2) nor the map appears in the statements, so solvers may replace either with any argument they like.

Formalization scope

  • Types. Times and elements are Fin n; the paper's time ttt is the index t−1t-1t−1. An order is π : Equiv.Perm (Fin n), read as time ↦ element, as on p. 3. The instance [NeZero n] encodes n≥1n\ge1n≥1, so the maximum over times is a genuine maximum (Finset.sup').
  • Expectations. Expectations over the uniform order are finite averages 1n!∑π\frac1{n!}\sum_\pin!1​∑π​. No measure theory is used.
  • Values and constants. Values, discounts and ZZZ are real numbers, and the hypotheses d≥0d\ge0d≥0, v≥0v\ge0v≥0 are explicit. The constant 1/41/41/4 is the paper's. The bound is stated multiplicatively, Z/4≤E[A]Z/4\le\mathbf E[\mathcal A]Z/4≤E[A], never as a ratio.
  • Thresholds and ties. Every threshold is non-strict (≥Z/2\ge Z/2≥Z/2), exactly as on pp. 7–8. A\mathcal AA selects the first qualifying time, so it needs no tie-breaking. The tie-breaking remark at Eq. (4.2) concerns only the paper's intermediate identity (4.2), which is not a milestone.
  • Claim 4.8. Both inequalities are stated with cleared denominators. The second carries the proof's case hypothesis 2∣Sacc∣≤n!2|S_{acc}|\le n!2∣Sacc​∣≤n!, which the paper uses in the same place ("at most half the permutations are in SaccS_{acc}Sacc​").
  • What is not this theorem. A\mathcal AA is the online threshold rule with threshold Z/2Z/2Z/2 applied to π\piπ as it unfolds. An algorithm that inspects the whole order, or that chooses its threshold after seeing the values, would make the bound trivial and is not this theorem.
  • Contributions welcome. Proofs of each milestone, including the counting argument of Claim 4.8. Lemmas on averages over Equiv.Perm (Fin n) and on first-hitting times are reusable beyond this mission.

Selected references

  • M. Babaioff, M. Dinitz, A. Gupta, N. Immorlica, K. Talwar, Secretary Problems: Weights and Discounts, Proceedings of the 20th ACM-SIAM Symposium on Discrete Algorithms (SODA), 2009.
  • E. B. Dynkin, Optimal choice of the stopping moment of a Markov process, Doklady Akademii Nauk SSSR 150:238–240, 1963.
  • W. T. Rasmussen, S. R. Pliska, Choosing the maximum from a sequence with a discount function, Applied Mathematics and Optimization 2(3):279–289, 1975/76.
  • M. Mahdian, P. McAfee, D. Pennock, The secretary problem with durable employment, personal communication, 2008 (cited as [MMP08]).
  • M. Babaioff, N. Immorlica, R. Kleinberg, Matroids, secretary problems, and online mechanisms, SODA 2007, pp. 434–443.
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Secretary Problems: Weights and Discounts 2: An Ω(log n / log log n) Lower Bound on the Competitive Ratio of the Discounted Secretary ProblemResearch Paper

Motivation

In the classical secretary problem a decision maker sees nnn candidates in uniformly random order, learns each candidate's value on arrival, and must accept or reject it on the spot; the goal is to pick a valuable one. A simple sample-then-select rule picks the best candidate with probability at least 1/e1/e1/e, so the problem is constant-competitive. The secretary problem is also a model of online mechanism design: a rule that accepts the first agent above a threshold computed from earlier agents is a truthful posted-price mechanism (as the paper notes in §1).

Babaioff, Dinitz, Gupta, Immorlica and Talwar (SODA 2009; authors' version) study the discounted secretary problem, where accepting at time ttt is worth d(t) v(e)d(t)\,v(e)d(t)v(e) for a known discount function ddd. Discounts model settings where a sale is worth more at some times than at others. The case d(t)=βtd(t)=\beta^td(t)=βt had been studied before (Rasmussen and Pliska 1976); the paper asks what happens for arbitrary ddd. Its answer has two sides: an O(log⁡n)O(\log n)O(logn)-competitive algorithm, and the result of this mission, a lower bound showing that no online algorithm is better than Ω(log⁡n/log⁡log⁡n)\Omega(\log n/\log\log n)Ω(logn/loglogn)-competitive. So, unlike the classical problem, the discounted problem with a general discount is not constant-competitive.

Setting

There are nnn elements e∈{0,…,n−1}e\in\{0,\dots,n-1\}e∈{0,…,n−1} with values v(e)≥0v(e)\ge 0v(e)≥0, and a discount function ddd on the times. The elements arrive in a uniformly random order π\piπ: element π(t)\pi(t)π(t) arrives at time ttt. A randomized online stopping rule AAA specifies, for each time ttt and each sequence of values seen so far h=(v(π(0)),…,v(π(t)))h=(v(\pi(0)),\dots,v(\pi(t)))h=(v(π(0)),…,v(π(t))), a probability pt(h)∈[0,1]p_t(h)\in[0,1]pt​(h)∈[0,1] of stopping at ttt if it has not stopped yet. Stopping at ttt selects π(t)\pi(t)π(t) and earns d(t) v(π(t))d(t)\,v(\pi(t))d(t)v(π(t)); the rule selects at most one element and may select none. The rule knows nnn and ddd, but it sees only values, only as they arrive, and it is not told which instance it is facing.

The expected value of AAA is

E[A]=Eπ[∑td(t) v(π(t)) pt(ht)∏s<t(1−ps(hs))],\mathbb E[A]=\mathbb E_\pi\Bigl[\sum_t d(t)\,v(\pi(t))\,p_t(h_t)\prod_{s<t}\bigl(1-p_s(h_s)\bigr)\Bigr],E[A]=Eπ​[t∑​d(t)v(π(t))pt​(ht​)s<t∏​(1−ps​(hs​))],

and the benchmark is the expected offline optimum

E[OPT]=Eπ[max⁡td(t) v(π(t))],\mathbb E[\mathrm{OPT}]=\mathbb E_\pi\Bigl[\max_t d(t)\,v(\pi(t))\Bigr],E[OPT]=Eπ​[tmax​d(t)v(π(t))],

which is itself a random variable averaged over the order. AAA is α\alphaα-competitive on an instance when E[OPT]≤α E[A]\mathbb E[\mathrm{OPT}]\le\alpha\,\mathbb E[A]E[OPT]≤αE[A].

The hard family (§4.1.1 of the paper): fix an integer c≥1c\ge1c≥1 and put L=cL=cL=c, n=L4cn=L^{4c}n=L4c, nt=L2tn_t=L^{2t}nt​=L2t for t≤2ct\le 2ct≤2c, and K=n2K=n^2K=n2. The step discount is d(j)=L−1d(j)=L^{-1}d(j)=L−1 on the times 1≤j≤n11\le j\le n_11≤j≤n1​ and d(j)=L−td(j)=L^{-t}d(j)=L−t on nt−1<j≤ntn_{t-1}<j\le n_tnt−1​<j≤nt​. The instance I1\mathcal I_1I1​ has n/n1n/n_1n/n1​ elements of value KKK and the rest 000; It+1\mathcal I_{t+1}It+1​ is obtained from It\mathcal I_tIt​ by raising n/nt+1n/n_{t+1}n/nt+1​ of its values KtK^tKt to Kt+1K^{t+1}Kt+1, so It\mathcal I_tIt​ has n/ntn/n_tn/nt​ elements of value KtK^tKt.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 4.3 in the form its proof establishes

For every integer c≥1c\ge1c≥1 and every randomized online stopping rule AAA for horizon n=c4cn=c^{4c}n=c4c and the step discount,

∃ t∈{1,…,2c}:c⋅E[A(It)] < 10⋅E[OPT(It)].\exists\,t\in\{1,\dots,2c\}:\qquad c\cdot\mathbb E[A(\mathcal I_t)]\ <\ 10\cdot\mathbb E[\mathrm{OPT}(\mathcal I_t)].∃t∈{1,…,2c}:c⋅E[A(It​)] < 10⋅E[OPT(It​)].

That is, no online rule is c/10c/10c/10-competitive on all of I1,…,I2c\mathcal I_1,\dots,\mathcal I_{2c}I1​,…,I2c​.

Milestones

  1. Lemma 4.1: E[OPT(It)]≥(1−1/e)KtL−t\mathbb E[\mathrm{OPT}(\mathcal I_t)]\ge(1-1/e)K^tL^{-t}E[OPT(It​)]≥(1−1/e)KtL−t for 1≤t≤2c1\le t\le 2c1≤t≤2c.
  2. Coupling step of Lemma 4.2's proof: for every rule and 1≤t<2c1\le t<2c1≤t<2c, the probability of stopping among the first ntn_tnt​ arrivals drops by at most 1/L21/L^21/L2 from It\mathcal I_tIt​ to It+1\mathcal I_{t+1}It+1​.
  3. Lemma 4.2: a rule that is c/10c/10c/10-competitive on I1,…,I2c\mathcal I_1,\dots,\mathcal I_{2c}I1​,…,I2c​ stops among the first ntn_tnt​ arrivals of It\mathcal I_tIt​ with probability at least t/ct/ct/c.
  4. Theorem 4.3, asymptotic form: for c≥2c\ge2c≥2 and n=c4cn=c^{4c}n=c4c, every rule has some It\mathcal I_tIt​ with
140⋅log⁡nlog⁡log⁡n⋅E[A(It)]<E[OPT(It)].\frac1{40}\cdot\frac{\log n}{\log\log n}\cdot\mathbb E[A(\mathcal I_t)]<\mathbb E[\mathrm{OPT}(\mathcal I_t)].401​⋅loglognlogn​⋅E[A(It​)]<E[OPT(It​)].

Significance

The result separates the discounted secretary problem from its classical and weighted relatives, which admit constant-competitive algorithms (the paper's Theorem 3.4 and the eee-competitive classical rule). Together with the paper's O(log⁡n)O(\log n)O(logn) upper bound (Theorem 4.4) it pins the competitive ratio for general discounts between log⁡n/log⁡log⁡n\log n/\log\log nlogn/loglogn and log⁡n\log nlogn up to constants, and it motivates the paper's known-OPT\mathrm{OPT}OPT model (§4.2), where an estimate of E[OPT]\mathbb E[\mathrm{OPT}]E[OPT] restores a constant ratio. The construction is a template for lower bounds against randomized online algorithms in random-order models: geometrically nested instances that a rule cannot tell apart early, played against a discount that punishes waiting.

The theorem is proved in the paper, in about a page. To our knowledge no part of it has a machine-checked proof. This mission produces the formal model of randomized online stopping rules in the random-order discounted setting, a reusable object for the paper's other discounted results (the O(log⁡n)O(\log n)O(logn) upper bound, and the 2\sqrt22​ lower bound with known values of Theorem 4.6), and a checked version of the lower bound with explicit constants.

Difficulty

The obvious attempt is to fix one instance and show that every rule loses on it. That fails: for any single instance there is a rule tuned to it (a rule that waits exactly as long as that instance warrants). The lower bound has to play the 2c2c2c instances against each other. A rule that does well on It\mathcal I_tIt​ must commit early, within the first ntn_tnt​ steps, yet the rule cannot distinguish It\mathcal I_tIt​ from It+1\mathcal I_{t+1}It+1​ during those steps except with probability L−2L^{-2}L−2. Making "cannot distinguish" precise is the central step: it needs a coupling of the two runs over the same random order and the same internal randomness, which works only because the rule's decision at time ttt depends on the values observed so far and nothing else. The accounting then has to show that the rule's early earnings on It+1\mathcal I_{t+1}It+1​ and its late earnings are both small compared with E[OPT(It+1)]\mathbb E[\mathrm{OPT}(\mathcal I_{t+1})]E[OPT(It+1​)], which uses L≥2L\ge 2L≥2 and that K=n2K=n^2K=n2 dwarfs L2cL^{2c}L2c.

Formalization scope

  • Elements and times are Fin n, 0-based: index jjj is the paper's time j+1j+1j+1, so the paper's block (nt−1,nt](n_{t-1},n_t](nt−1​,nt​] is the index range [nt−1,nt)[n_{t-1},n_t)[nt−1​,nt​). The random order is π : Equiv.Perm (Fin n) read as time ↦\mapsto↦ element, and every expectation over it is the finite average 1n!∑π\frac1{n!}\sum_\pin!1​∑π​. Values and discounts are real.
  • Algorithms are the structure StoppingRule n: stopping probabilities pt(h)∈[0,1]p_t(h)\in[0,1]pt​(h)∈[0,1] indexed by time and the arrival-ordered value sequence, with the non-anticipation condition that pt(h)p_t(h)pt​(h) depends only on h0,…,hth_0,\dots,h_th0​,…,ht​. The theorem quantifies over all such rules, so it covers deterministic and randomized online algorithms that observe values only. A rule may depend on nnn and ddd but not on the instance index.
  • OPT is Eπ[max⁡td(t)v(π(t))]\mathbb E_\pi[\max_t d(t)v(\pi(t))]Eπ​[maxt​d(t)v(π(t))] (a supremum over the finite type Fin n), and competitiveness is multiplicative, E[OPT]≤α E[A]\mathbb E[\mathrm{OPT}]\le\alpha\,\mathbb E[A]E[OPT]≤αE[A], never a quotient.
  • Constants. The goal uses the paper's constant 101010 (from "if AAA is c/10c/10c/10-competitive"); the asymptotic form uses 1/401/401/40, from log⁡n/log⁡log⁡n≤4c\log n/\log\log n\le 4clogn/loglogn≤4c for c≥2c\ge2c≥2, with the natural logarithm. K=n2K=n^2K=n2, the value the paper suggests.
  • The construction (nnn, ntn_tnt​, ddd, KKK, It\mathcal I_tIt​) is fixed by explicit formulas in the definition file. A solver cannot choose the discount or the instances, and the goal is not stated for a restricted class of algorithms; a formalization that let the rule see the instance index or future values, or quantified only over threshold rules, would be a different and trivial or weaker theorem. For c<10c<10c<10 the goal is immediate, since E[A]≤E[OPT]\mathbb E[A]\le\mathbb E[\mathrm{OPT}]E[A]≤E[OPT] and E[OPT(It)]>0\mathbb E[\mathrm{OPT}(\mathcal I_t)]>0E[OPT(It​)]>0; the content lies in c≥10c\ge10c≥10. The bound is stated only for the horizons n=c4cn=c^{4c}n=c4c the paper constructs.
  • Needed infrastructure: counting arguments over permutations of Fin n (the probability that a set of mmm elements misses the first kkk positions), the coupling of two value sequences that agree on a prefix, and elementary estimates on geometric sums. The rule model and the permutation-counting lemmas are reusable for the paper's other discounted results. Contributions of these supporting lemmas, as well as proofs of the milestones, are welcome.

Selected references

  • M. Babaioff, M. Dinitz, A. Gupta, N. Immorlica, K. Talwar, Secretary Problems: Weights and Discounts, Proceedings of the 20th ACM-SIAM Symposium on Discrete Algorithms (SODA), 2009. https://doi.org/10.1137/1.9781611973068.135 (authors' full version, the one cited here: https://www.cs.jhu.edu/~mdinitz/papers/secretary.pdf)
  • E. B. Dynkin, Optimal choice of the stopping moment of a Markov process, Doklady Akademii Nauk SSSR, 1963.
  • W. T. Rasmussen, S. R. Pliska, Choosing the maximum from a sequence with a discount function, Applied Mathematics and Optimization 2(3), 1976.
  • T. S. Ferguson, Who solved the secretary problem?, Statistical Science 4(3), 1989. https://doi.org/10.1214/ss/1177012493
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Correlated Equilibrium as an Expression of Bayesian Rationality II: Two-Person Correlated Equilibrium Distributions Are the Solutions of Linear InequalitiesResearch Paper

Motivation

A correlated equilibrium is the equilibrium notion that arises when the players of a game take their actions on the advice of a common randomizing device, each player seeing only his own recommendation. It was introduced by Aumann in 1974 (Aumann 1974). Aumann's 1987 paper (Aumann 1987) gives the simple, finite form of the definition used today (Definition 2.1) and shows that the notion is what Bayesian rationality with a common prior predicts. On the way it records, as Proposition 2.3, the fact that makes correlated equilibrium tractable in practice: for a finite two-person game, the distributions over action pairs that come from correlated equilibria are exactly the solutions of an explicit finite system of linear inequalities.

That characterization is the starting point of the computational theory of correlated equilibria. Because the set is a polyhedron, an optimal correlated equilibrium can be found by linear programming, and no-swap-regret learning dynamics converge to this set (Foster and Vohra 1997; Hart and Mas-Colell 2000). In each of these works the linear-inequality description is taken as the definition; the paper's Proposition 2.3 is the bridge back to the strategic definition.

Setting

Player 1 has a finite set S1S^1S1 of actions and player 2 a finite set S2S^2S2. For j∈S1j \in S^1j∈S1 and k∈S2k \in S^2k∈S2, hjk1h^1_{jk}hjk1​ and hjk2h^2_{jk}hjk2​ are the two players' payoffs at the action pair (j,k)(j,k)(j,k).

A correlated strategy pair is a pair of functions f1:Γ→S1f^1 : \Gamma \to S^1f1:Γ→S1, f2:Γ→S2f^2 : \Gamma \to S^2f2:Γ→S2 on a finite probability space (Γ,μ)(\Gamma, \mu)(Γ,μ): a finite set Γ\GammaΓ with nonnegative weights μ(γ)\mu(\gamma)μ(γ) summing to 111. Chance draws γ\gammaγ and suggests the action fi(γ)f^i(\gamma)fi(γ) to player iii. The pair is a correlated equilibrium (Definition 2.1, condition (2.2)) if no player gains by a deviation that depends only on his own suggestion: for every φ:S1→S1\varphi : S^1 \to S^1φ:S1→S1,

E h1(φ(f1),f2)≤E h1(f1,f2),\mathbb E\, h^1(\varphi(f^1), f^2) \le \mathbb E\, h^1(f^1, f^2),Eh1(φ(f1),f2)≤Eh1(f1,f2),

and the analogous inequality holds for player 2 and every ψ:S2→S2\psi : S^2 \to S^2ψ:S2→S2.

A distribution is a family (pjk)j∈S1,k∈S2(p_{jk})_{j \in S^1, k \in S^2}(pjk​)j∈S1,k∈S2​ with pjk≥0p_{jk} \ge 0pjk​≥0 and ∑j∑kpjk=1\sum_j \sum_k p_{jk} = 1∑j​∑k​pjk​=1. The distribution of a correlated strategy pair assigns to (j,k)(j,k)(j,k) the probability μ{f1=j, f2=k}\mu\{f^1 = j,\ f^2 = k\}μ{f1=j, f2=k}. A correlated equilibrium distribution (c.e.d.) is the distribution of some correlated equilibrium on some finite probability space.

In the Lean development these are IsDistribution p, IsProbVec μ, IsCE h₁ h₂ μ f₁ f₂, distr μ f₁ f₂ and IsCED h₁ h₂ p, with h₁ j k =hjk1= h^1_{jk}=hjk1​ and p j k =pjk= p_{jk}=pjk​.

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 2.3

For every distribution (pjk)(p_{jk})(pjk​): (pjk)(p_{jk})(pjk​) is a correlated equilibrium distribution if and only if

∑k(hjk1−hqk1) pjk≥0for all j,q∈S1,(2.4)\sum_k \big(h^1_{jk} - h^1_{qk}\big)\, p_{jk} \ge 0 \quad \text{for all } j, q \in S^1, \tag{2.4}k∑​(hjk1​−hqk1​)pjk​≥0for all j,q∈S1,(2.4) ∑j(hjk2−hjr2) pjk≥0for all k,r∈S2.(2.5)\sum_j \big(h^2_{jk} - h^2_{jr}\big)\, p_{jk} \ge 0 \quad \text{for all } k, r \in S^2. \tag{2.5}j∑​(hjk2​−hjr2​)pjk​≥0for all k,r∈S2.(2.5)

Milestones

  1. Identification with distributions (Sect. 2, p. 4). A correlated strategy pair is a correlated equilibrium if and only if its distribution ppp satisfies ∑j∑kpjkhφ(j)k1≤∑j∑kpjkhjk1\sum_j\sum_k p_{jk} h^1_{\varphi(j)k} \le \sum_j\sum_k p_{jk} h^1_{jk}∑j​∑k​pjk​hφ(j)k1​≤∑j​∑k​pjk​hjk1​ for all φ\varphiφ, and the analogous condition for player 2.
  2. Conditioning on possible suggestions (proof of Prop. 2.3, p. 6). For a distribution, player 1's condition holds if and only if H1(q∣j)≤H1(j∣j)H^1(q \mid j) \le H^1(j \mid j)H1(q∣j)≤H1(j∣j) for every suggestion jjj of positive probability and every qqq, where H1(q∣j)=∑khqk1pjk/∑kpjkH^1(q\mid j) = \sum_k h^1_{qk} p_{jk} / \sum_k p_{jk}H1(q∣j)=∑k​hqk1​pjk​/∑k​pjk​; likewise for player 2.
  3. Player 1 gives (2.4): player 1's condition on ppp is equivalent to (2.4).
  4. Player 2 gives (2.5): player 2's condition on ppp is equivalent to (2.5).

A further statement, not a milestone, records the paper's example on p. 5: in the game of chicken (Figure 4) the distribution of Figure 5 is a c.e.d. with expected payoff (5,5)(5,5)(5,5).

Significance

The result. Proposition 2.3 turns an existential statement — there is some probability space and some correlated strategy pair that is an equilibrium and has distribution ppp — into finitely many linear inequalities on ppp alone. Consequently the set of c.e.d.'s is a compact convex polyhedron, membership is decidable by evaluating ∣S1∣2+∣S2∣2|S^1|^2 + |S^2|^2∣S1∣2+∣S2∣2 linear forms, and optimizing a linear objective over it is a linear program. The paper states the two-person case and remarks that "the principle, however, is no different in the general case".

Formalizing it. The proposition is classical and its proof is short; to our knowledge it has no machine-checked proof. The platform already has the linear-inequality (swap) form of correlated equilibrium for two-player games on Fin m × Fin n (Foster–Vohra 1997 missions) and Aumann's 1974 randomizing-structure model, but no statement that connects the strategic definition over arbitrary finite probability spaces with the linear system. This mission supplies that connection, so that results proved about the polyhedron apply to equilibria in Aumann's sense and conversely.

Difficulty

The mathematics is elementary; the care is in the statement. Two points need attention. First, the direction from the inequalities to a c.e.d. requires constructing a probability space and a correlated strategy pair whose distribution is the given ppp; the c.e.d. notion quantifies over probability spaces, not over distributions. Second, the paper's argument divides by the probability ∑kpjk\sum_k p_{jk}∑k​pjk​ of a suggestion, which may be zero; the conditional formulation (milestone 2) holds only over possible suggestions, while (2.4) and (2.5) quantify over all actions and hold trivially at impossible ones. Deviations must be functions of the player's own suggestion: restricting to constant deviations gives coarse correlated equilibrium, which (2.4)–(2.5) do not characterize, and allowing arbitrary functions of γ\gammaγ gives a stronger notion.

Formalization scope

Two players with finite action types S₁ S₂ : Type* (Fintype, DecidableEq); payoffs h₁ h₂ : S₁ → S₂ → ℝ; distributions p : S₁ → S₂ → ℝ with the sign and sum conditions as an explicit hypothesis of every statement about distributions. Finite probability spaces are finite types Γ : Type with a probability vector μ : Γ → ℝ; deviations are compositions φ ∘ f₁ with φ : S₁ → S₁. The conditional payoffs H1H^1H1, H2H^2H2 use Lean's x / 0 = 0 and are only ever used at possible suggestions. Empty action sets admit no distribution, so the statements are then vacuous, exactly as in the paper.

A trivializing formalization is ruled out: "c.e.d." is the existential notion over finite probability spaces with a genuine probability vector and an equilibrium in the sense of Definition 2.1, not the inequalities themselves or the swap form on ppp.

No infrastructure beyond finite sums and Finset.filter is needed. Contributions welcome: proofs of the milestones, and the nnn-player generalization the paper alludes to.

Selected references

  • R. J. Aumann, Correlated Equilibrium as an Expression of Bayesian Rationality, Econometrica 55 (1987), 1–18. https://doi.org/10.2307/1911154
  • R. J. Aumann, Subjectivity and Correlation in Randomized Strategies, Journal of Mathematical Economics 1 (1974), 67–96. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4068(74)90037-8
  • D. P. Foster and R. V. Vohra, Calibrated Learning and Correlated Equilibrium, Games and Economic Behavior 21 (1997), 40–55. https://doi.org/10.1006/game.1997.0595
  • S. Hart and A. Mas-Colell, A Simple Adaptive Procedure Leading to Correlated Equilibrium, Econometrica 68 (2000), 1127–1150. https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0262.00153
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AnalysisFunctional AnalysisNumerical Analysis·Captain: mikedeng1

Theory of Reproducing Kernels VI: The Projection onto the Closed Sum of Two Subspaces as a Series in the Two ProjectionsResearch Paper

Motivation

An orthogonal projection onto a closed subspace is straightforward to describe when that subspace is given directly. It is less straightforward when the subspace is specified as the closed sum of two others: a vector can have contributions from both, and the two component projections generally do not commute. In §12 of Aronszajn's 1950 paper, this problem arises while expressing the reproducing kernel of a sum of two closed subspaces of a reproducing-kernel Hilbert space through their individual kernels. The projection formula is the analytic heart of that calculation. It also gives a series whose finite partial sums can be applied without first describing a basis for the closed sum.

Aronszajn states the result for closed subspaces of a complex Hilbert space of functions. The projection identity itself uses only Hilbert-space geometry; evaluation at a point and the reproducing property enter when the operator formula is translated into a kernel formula later in the section. This mission isolates the projection theorem so that the same formal result can be used both in that kernel calculation and in other settings with two closed subspaces.

Setting

Let EEE be a complex Hilbert space and let F1,F2F_1,F_2F1​,F2​ be closed linear subspaces. The algebraic sum F1+F2F_1+F_2F1​+F2​ is the set of all f1+f2f_1+f_2f1​+f2​ with fi∈Fif_i\in F_ifi​∈Fi​. It need not be closed. Write F′=F1+F2‾F'=\overline{F_1+F_2}F′=F1​+F2​​ for its closure and F0=F1∩F2F_0=F_1\cap F_2F0​=F1​∩F2​ for the intersection. All four subspaces are closed except possibly the algebraic sum itself. Let P1,P2,P,P0P_1,P_2,P,P_0P1​,P2​,P,P0​ be the orthogonal projections onto F1,F2,F′,F0F_1,F_2,F',F_0F1​,F2​,F′,F0​, respectively. Operator products denote composition, with the rightmost factor applied first; (P2P1)0(P_2P_1)^0(P2​P1​)0 is the identity.

The paper writes F1⊕F2F_1\oplus F_2F1​⊕F2​ for F′F'F′, even when F0F_0F0​ is nonzero, and uses a distinct dotted plus for the algebraic sum. These symbols can look like a direct sum in newer notation. Here the definitions of F′F'F′ and F0F_0F0​ remove that ambiguity. Aronszajn assumes complex scalars throughout Part I after §1, p. 343; the statements below keep that convention. Neither a topology on an underlying set of functions nor a measure is part of these operator assertions.

Formalization targets

The goal is the strong projection series, §12, Eq. (7). For each f∈Ef\in Ef∈E,

Pf=P0f+∑k=1∞[P1(P2P1)k−1+P2(P1P2)k−1−(P2P1)k−(P1P2)k]f.Pf=P_0f+\sum_{k=1}^{\infty}\left[P_1(P_2P_1)^{k-1}+P_2(P_1P_2)^{k-1}-(P_2P_1)^k-(P_1P_2)^k\right]f.Pf=P0​f+k=1∑∞​[P1​(P2​P1​)k−1+P2​(P1​P2​)k−1−(P2​P1​)k−(P1​P2​)k]f.

The sum means that its finite partial sums converge in the norm of EEE for each fixed fff. No operator-norm limit is claimed. The first term of the sum, at k=1k=1k=1, includes P1+P2−P2P1−P1P2P_1+P_2-P_2P_1-P_1P_2P1​+P2​−P2​P1​−P1​P2​ because both zero powers are identity operators.

Three source statements are milestones. Equation (1) is a finite identity that expresses a power of (P−P1)(P−P2)(P-P_1)(P-P_2)(P−P1​)(P−P2​) through a partial sum and a power of P2P1P_2P_1P2​P1​. The paragraph following Eq. (4) identifies the strong limit of (P2P1)m(P_2P_1)^m(P2​P1​)m as P0P_0P0​. The paragraph before Eq. (7) asserts that [(P−P1)(P−P2)]m[(P-P_1)(P-P_2)]^m[(P−P1​)(P−P2​)]m tends strongly to zero. Together these statements specify the finite and limiting parts of the displayed target. They require no assumption that F0F_0F0​ is zero.

Significance

The formula describes the orthogonal projection onto a closed sum in terms of projections onto its two constituents. In Aronszajn's application, an orthogonal projection on a closed subspace determines that subspace's reproducing kernel; therefore the operator expansion supplies a kernel expansion without constructing a basis of the sum. It also makes explicit why an intersection term survives when the subspaces overlap. The result is proved in the 1950 paper; this mission asks for a Lean proof of that known result, with its convergence mode and closure convention made explicit.

A machine-checked development would provide a reusable complex-Hilbert-space statement for alternating projections and closed sums. Mathlib already provides closed submodules and their orthogonal projections, so the new contribution is the finite identity and the strong-limit claims connecting them. The resulting theorem can support the paper's later kernel expression, §12, Eq. (18), once the correspondence between bounded operators and kernels from §11 is available. Equation (18) is outside this mission's target list.

Difficulty

The algebraic sum of two closed subspaces can fail to be closed, so projecting onto it directly would leave the target undefined as a Hilbert-space orthogonal projection. Passing to its closure gives the correct target but does not imply the two projections commute or that their product has a uniform contraction factor. In particular, strong convergence of the powers and of the final series does not generally improve to convergence in operator norm. The later special case in §12, where the intersection is zero and the minimal angle is positive, has a stronger uniform-convergence conclusion; that extra angle condition is absent from Eq. (7).

The finite formula also has four terms per summand whose order matters. Reversing P1P2P_1P_2P1​P2​ and P2P1P_2P_1P2​P1​, beginning the power at kkk rather than k−1k-1k−1, or omitting P0P_0P0​ changes the statement. Even a proof of pointwise convergence of each selected term would not by itself establish the convergence of the bracketed partial sums in the target.

Formalization scope

The Lean representation is an arbitrary complex Hilbert space E with two ClosedSubmodule ℂ E objects. Mathlib's Submodule.starProjection supplies P1P_1P1​ and P2P_2P2​. Two small definitions name PPP as projection onto the join of the closed submodules and P0P_0P0​ as projection onto their meet. The closed-submodule join is the closure of the algebraic sum; the meet is the intersection. These definitions are computed from F1,F2F_1,F_2F1​,F2​, not independently quantified projections. The theorem quantifies over every vector fff and uses Filter.Tendsto along natural-number partial sums, giving norm convergence of the resulting vectors.

The source's ambient class has a reproducing kernel, but no step in Eqs. (1)–(7) uses point evaluations. The formal statements therefore apply to any complex Hilbert space, including the paper's RKHS. The stronger scope is explicit here and does not assert a new kernel identity. The mmm-th Lean partial sum uses indices 0,…,m−10,\ldots,m-10,…,m−1 for the paper's 1,…,m1,\ldots,m1,…,m; it has the same terms and is defined at m=0m=0m=0 as P0fP_0fP0​f. The finite identity is stated only for m≥1m\ge1m≥1, as its m=0m=0m=0 version is false in general.

Eq. (1) on p. 375 is printed without the opening bracket of the summand (only the closing bracket appears); the formalization reads it as in Eq. (4) on p. 376, where both brackets are printed. There are two printing slips on p. 377: a running sentence drops brackets from the power of (P−P1)(P−P2)(P-P_1)(P-P_2)(P−P1​)(P−P2​), and it prints P⊖P2P\ominus P_2P⊖P2​ while discussing the projection P−P2P-P_2P−P2​. The formalization follows the bracketed expression in Eqs. (1) and (4), using ordinary operator subtraction. The corresponding milestone preserves the printed wording. No assumption from the later angle analysis, especially F0={0}F_0=\{0\}F0​={0}, is imported into these results. The series is stated through actual partial sums; it is not defined by an arbitrary RKHS chosen to have a desired kernel.

Selected references

  • N. Aronszajn, Theory of Reproducing Kernels, Transactions of the American Mathematical Society 68 (1950), 337–404, §12, pp. 375–380. DOI: 10.1090/S0002-9947-1950-0051437-7.
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Dynamic ProgrammingMachine LearningOptimization+1·Captain: mikedeng1

Reinforcement Learning: An Introduction III: The Policy Improvement Theorem and Policy IterationTextbook

Why policy improvement matters

Reinforcement learning methods search for good behaviour by alternating two activities: estimating how good the current behaviour is, and changing the behaviour in the direction those estimates suggest. Sutton and Barto call this pattern generalized policy iteration and use it as the organizing idea of their textbook (Sutton & Barto 2018, §4.6). Its mathematical justification is a single result of Chapter 4, the policy improvement theorem (p. 78): a comparison made one step ahead, at each state separately, certifies that a changed policy is at least as good everywhere. Policy iteration, value iteration, Monte Carlo control with ε-greedy policies (Chapter 5), Sarsa and Q-learning are all motivated by it.

The chapter's results go back to the foundations of dynamic programming: the Bellman optimality equation (Bellman 1957), and policy iteration with its finite termination for discounted finite Markov decision processes (Howard 1960). Standard modern treatments are Puterman 1994, Ch. 6, and Bertsekas 2012, Vol. II, Ch. 1.

Setting

A finite Markov decision process has a finite state set S\mathcal SS, a finite nonempty action set A\mathcal AA, a finite reward set R⊂R\mathcal R\subset\mathbb RR⊂R and dynamics p(s′,r∣s,a)p(s', r\mid s, a)p(s′,r∣s,a): for each state sss and action aaa, a probability distribution over the next state s′s's′ and reward rrr (Eqs. (3.2)–(3.3)). A policy π\piπ gives probabilities π(a∣s)\pi(a\mid s)π(a∣s) of choosing each action in each state; a deterministic policy is a map π:S→A\pi:\mathcal S\to\mathcal Aπ:S→A.

Fix a discount rate 0≤γ<10\le\gamma<10≤γ<1. The state-value function of π\piπ is the expected discounted return

vπ(s)=Eπ[∑k=0∞γkRt+k+1 ∣ St=s],v_\pi(s) = E_\pi\Big[\sum_{k=0}^\infty \gamma^k R_{t+k+1}\ \Big|\ S_t=s\Big],vπ​(s)=Eπ​[k=0∑∞​γkRt+k+1​ ​ St​=s],

and the action-value function is defined from it by (4.6):

qπ(s,a)=∑s′,rp(s′,r∣s,a) [r+γvπ(s′)],q_\pi(s,a) = \sum_{s',r} p(s',r\mid s,a)\,\big[r+\gamma v_\pi(s')\big],qπ​(s,a)=s′,r∑​p(s′,r∣s,a)[r+γvπ​(s′)],

the value of taking aaa once in sss and following π\piπ afterwards. A policy is optimal if its value is at least that of every policy at every state, and the optimal value function is v∗(s)=max⁡πvπ(s)v_*(s)=\max_\pi v_\pi(s)v∗​(s)=maxπ​vπ​(s). A deterministic policy π′\pi'π′ is greedy with respect to qπq_\piqπ​ if π′(s)∈argmax⁡aqπ(s,a)\pi'(s)\in\operatorname{argmax}_a q_\pi(s,a)π′(s)∈argmaxa​qπ​(s,a) for all sss (4.9).

Formalization targets

Goal: the policy improvement theorem, (4.7)–(4.8), p. 78

For deterministic policies π,π′\pi,\pi'π,π′,

(∀s, qπ(s,π′(s))≥vπ(s)) ⟹ (∀s, vπ′(s)≥vπ(s)),\big(\forall s,\ q_\pi(s,\pi'(s))\ge v_\pi(s)\big)\ \Longrightarrow\ \big(\forall s,\ v_{\pi'}(s)\ge v_\pi(s)\big),(∀s, qπ​(s,π′(s))≥vπ​(s)) ⟹ (∀s, vπ′​(s)≥vπ​(s)),

and at every state where the hypothesis is strict, the conclusion is strict at that same state.

Milestones

  1. Iterative policy evaluation (4.5), p. 74. From any v0v_0v0​, the iterates vk+1(s)=∑aπ(a∣s)∑s′,rp(s′,r∣s,a)[r+γvk(s′)]v_{k+1}(s)=\sum_a\pi(a\mid s)\sum_{s',r}p(s',r\mid s,a)[r+\gamma v_k(s')]vk+1​(s)=∑a​π(a∣s)∑s′,r​p(s′,r∣s,a)[r+γvk​(s′)] converge to vπv_\pivπ​.
  2. Greedy improvement (4.9), p. 79. A greedy π′\pi'π′ with respect to qπq_\piqπ​ satisfies (4.7), hence vπ′≥vπv_{\pi'}\ge v_\pivπ′​≥vπ​.
  3. The stochastic case, p. 79. For stochastic π,π′\pi,\pi'π,π′, with qπ(s,π′(s))=∑aπ′(a∣s)qπ(s,a)q_\pi(s,\pi'(s))=\sum_a\pi'(a\mid s)q_\pi(s,a)qπ​(s,π′(s))=∑a​π′(a∣s)qπ​(s,a) as in (5.2), the theorem holds as stated, strictness included.
  4. Equality forces optimality, p. 79. If a greedy π′\pi'π′ has vπ′=vπv_{\pi'}=v_\pivπ′​=vπ​, then vπ′v_{\pi'}vπ′​ solves the Bellman optimality equation (4.1), vπ′=v∗v_{\pi'}=v_*vπ′​=v∗​, and π\piπ and π′\pi'π′ are optimal.
  5. Policy iteration, p. 80. For every sequence of deterministic policies with πk+1\pi_{k+1}πk+1​ greedy with respect to qπkq_{\pi_k}qπk​​: each step is a strict improvement unless πk\pi_kπk​ is optimal, and from some KKK on every πk\pi_kπk​ is optimal with vπk=v∗v_{\pi_k}=v_*vπk​​=v∗​.
  6. Value iteration (4.10), p. 83. v∗v_*v∗​ is attained by one policy at all states, and from any v0v_0v0​ the iterates vk+1(s)=max⁡a∑s′,rp(s′,r∣s,a)[r+γvk(s′)]v_{k+1}(s)=\max_a\sum_{s',r}p(s',r\mid s,a)[r+\gamma v_k(s')]vk+1​(s)=maxa​∑s′,r​p(s′,r∣s,a)[r+γvk​(s′)] converge to v∗v_*v∗​.

Significance

The results. The policy improvement theorem turns a local test into a global guarantee: it is enough to check, state by state, that one step of the new policy followed by the old one does no worse than the old one. Combined with the finiteness of the set of deterministic policies, it yields the finite termination of policy iteration and, with the equality case, the existence of a deterministic optimal policy. The stochastic form is what Chapter 5 invokes for ε-greedy control. Value iteration is the other classical way to compute v∗v_*v∗​.

Formalizing them. All of these results are classical and proved in the literature cited above; they are not open. The textbook presents them informally ("we chose not to produce a rigorous formal treatment", p. xiii): the improvement theorem is argued by an unbounded chain of expansions, and the policy evaluation and value iteration convergence claims are stated without proof. The mission makes each claim precise with explicit hypotheses and asks for machine-checked proofs against the book's own model with four-argument dynamics and stochastic policies. Related platform results use different models (cost minimization with deterministic policies in Bertsekas's Dynamic Programming; an expected-reward kernel and an assumed fixed point in Foundations of Machine Learning), and none states the policy improvement theorem itself.

Difficulty

The book's proof expands qπq_\piqπ​ with (4.6) and reapplies (4.7) indefinitely, ending with "≤⋯=vπ′(s)\le\cdots=v_{\pi'}(s)≤⋯=vπ′​(s)". Made rigorous, the chain is an inequality between truncated returns plus a remainder γnEπ′[vπ(St+n)]\gamma^n E_{\pi'}[v_\pi(S_{t+n})]γnEπ′​[vπ​(St+n​)], and the passage to the limit needs the remainder to vanish and the truncated returns to converge to vπ′v_{\pi'}vπ′​. Since vπv_\pivπ​ is defined here as a series of expected rewards under the induced Markov chain, connecting it to the one-step quantities requires first establishing the Bellman equation for vπv_\pivπ​ from that series. The strictness part does not follow from the weak inequality alone: strictness at one state must be shown to survive the averaging over later states, which requires tracking the contribution of the first step exactly. The policy iteration statement additionally requires handling ties: a greedy step taken from an optimal policy can move to a different optimal policy, so the sequence need not become constant.

Formalization scope

All objects live in the namespace SuttonBartoRL.DP. States and actions are finite types, actions nonempty where a maximum is taken; one action set serves all states (footnote 3, p. 48). Rewards form a finite set R⊂R\mathcal R\subset\mathbb RR⊂R, and the dynamics are a function p(s′,r∣s,a)p(s',r\mid s,a)p(s′,r∣s,a) whose values off R\mathcal RR are never used. Policies are stochastic; deterministic policies are embedded as policies that choose one action with probability one.

Committed conventions:

  • Discount 0≤γ<10\le\gamma<10≤γ<1 throughout. The book also allows γ=1\gamma=1γ=1 when "eventual termination is guaranteed" (p. 74) but never states that hypothesis precisely; the episodic case with a terminal state is out of scope. This is the only restriction relative to the text.
  • vπv_\pivπ​ from returns. vπ(s)=∑kγk(Pπkrπ)(s)v_\pi(s)=\sum_k\gamma^k(P_\pi^k r_\pi)(s)vπ​(s)=∑k​γk(Pπk​rπ​)(s), with PπP_\piPπ​ the state transition matrix of π\piπ and rπr_\pirπ​ its expected one-step reward. qπq_\piqπ​ is defined by (4.6), as the book does. The Bellman equation (4.4) is not assumed. Defining vπv_\pivπ​ as the fixed point of a Bellman operator would make the goal an order property of that operator and is excluded.
  • v∗v_*v∗​ is the real supremum over all stochastic policies; the value iteration item also asserts it is attained. Optimality of a policy means dominance over all stochastic policies.
  • Greedy means π′(s)\pi'(s)π′(s) is any maximizer of qπ(s,⋅)q_\pi(s,\cdot)qπ​(s,⋅); tie-breaking is arbitrary and may differ between iterations.
  • Stochastic case. The book only says the theorem "carries through as stated"; the meaning qπ(s,π′(s))=∑aπ′(a∣s)qπ(s,a)q_\pi(s,\pi'(s))=\sum_a\pi'(a\mid s)q_\pi(s,a)qπ​(s,π′(s))=∑a​π′(a∣s)qπ​(s,a) is taken from the book's (5.2), p. 101.
  • Policy iteration is the idealized sequence with exact evaluation. The item does not claim that the boxed pseudocode on p. 80 stops, which it may fail to do under ties (Exercise 4.4, p. 82).
  • Convergence of iterates is in the product topology on RS\mathbb R^{\mathcal S}RS, equivalent to the sup norm for finite S\mathcal SS.

In-place (asynchronous) sweeps (§4.5) and truncated policy iteration are not formalized.

Needed infrastructure: summability of discounted series of bounded expected rewards, the Bellman equation for vπv_\pivπ​ derived from the return definition, contraction arguments in the sup norm on RS\mathbb R^{\mathcal S}RS, and finiteness of the set of deterministic policies. The definitions here duplicate those of the series' Chapter 3 mission and are intended to be merged with them; lemmas about vπv_\pivπ​, the Bellman equation and contraction are reusable by every later mission of the series, and contributions of such lemmas are welcome.

Selected references

  • R. S. Sutton and A. G. Barto, Reinforcement Learning: An Introduction, 2nd ed., MIT Press, 2018, ISBN 9780262039246, Chapter 4. http://incompleteideas.net/book/the-book-2nd.html
  • R. Bellman, Dynamic Programming, Princeton University Press, 1957. https://press.princeton.edu/books/paperback/9780691146683/dynamic-programming
  • R. A. Howard, Dynamic Programming and Markov Processes, MIT Press, 1960. https://mitpress.mit.edu/9780262080095/dynamic-programming-and-markov-processes/
  • M. L. Puterman, Markov Decision Processes: Discrete Stochastic Dynamic Programming, Wiley, 1994. https://doi.org/10.1002/9780470316887
  • D. P. Bertsekas, Dynamic Programming and Optimal Control, Vol. II, 4th ed., Athena Scientific, 2012. http://www.athenasc.com/dpbook.html
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Mathematical PhysicsProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

The Intermediate Disorder Regime for Directed Polymers in Dimension 1+1: The Rescaled Partition Function Converges in Law to a Wiener ChaosResearch Paper

Motivation

A directed polymer in a random environment is a simple random walk whose paths are reweighted by a random field of energies. It is a basic model of disordered statistical mechanics, and in dimension 1+11+11+1 it belongs to the Kardar–Parisi–Zhang (KPZ) universality class: at fixed temperature the free energy fluctuates on the scale n1/3n^{1/3}n1/3 and is expected to follow Tracy–Widom laws. Comets and Yoshida (Ann. Probab. 34 (2006)) showed that in dimension 1+11+11+1 every positive inverse temperature β\betaβ lies in the strong disorder regime, where the normalised partition function tends to zero. At β=0\beta=0β=0 the polymer is simply the random walk.

Alberts, Khanin and Quastel (arXiv:1202.4398, Ann. Probab. 42 (2014)) identified the regime in between. If the inverse temperature is scaled as βn−1/4\beta n^{-1/4}βn−1/4, the partition function neither concentrates nor vanishes: it converges in law to a universal random variable, a Wiener chaos in a space–time white noise. That variable is the solution at time 111, integrated in space, of the stochastic heat equation with multiplicative noise, whose logarithm is the Hopf–Cole solution of the KPZ equation. The theorem therefore connects discrete polymers to the continuum KPZ equation under weak, nnn-dependent disorder, with no assumption on the environment beyond exponential moments.

Setting

The environment is a family ω=(ω(i,x))i≥1, x∈Z\omega=(\omega(i,x))_{i\ge1,\,x\in\mathbb Z}ω=(ω(i,x))i≥1,x∈Z​ of i.i.d. real random variables on a probability space (Ω,Q)(\Omega,Q)(Ω,Q), with mean 000 and variance 111. Write λ(β)=log⁡Q eβω\lambda(\beta)=\log Q\,e^{\beta\omega}λ(β)=logQeβω. The polymer is the symmetric simple random walk SSS on Z\mathbb ZZ started at 000, independent of ω\omegaω, under the uniform measure P\mathbf PP on the 2n2^n2n step sequences. The energy of an nnn-step path is Hnω(S)=∑i=1nω(i,Si)H_n^\omega(S)=\sum_{i=1}^n\omega(i,S_i)Hnω​(S)=∑i=1n​ω(i,Si​), and the point-to-line partition function is

Znω(β)=P[eβHnω(S)].Z_n^\omega(\beta)=\mathbf P\big[e^{\beta H_n^\omega(S)}\big].Znω​(β)=P[eβHnω​(S)].

The modified partition function replaces eβωe^{\beta\omega}eβω by 1+βω1+\beta\omega1+βω: znω(β)=P[∏i=1n(1+β ω(i,Si))]\mathfrak z_n^\omega(\beta)=\mathbf P\big[\prod_{i=1}^n(1+\beta\,\omega(i,S_i))\big]znω​(β)=P[∏i=1n​(1+βω(i,Si​))].

On the continuum side, a white noise on [0,1]×R[0,1]\times\mathbb R[0,1]×R is a centred Gaussian family {W(A)}\{W(A)\}{W(A)}, indexed by the Borel sets of finite Lebesgue measure, with E[W(A)W(B)]=∣A∩B∣E[W(A)W(B)]=|A\cap B|E[W(A)W(B)]=∣A∩B∣. Its multiple stochastic integrals are continuous linear maps Ik:L2([0,1]k×Rk)→L2I_k:L^2([0,1]^k\times\mathbb R^k)\to L^2Ik​:L2([0,1]k×Rk)→L2 with Ik(1A1×⋯×Ak)=∏jW(Aj)I_k(\mathbf 1_{A_1\times\dots\times A_k})=\prod_jW(A_j)Ik​(1A1​×⋯×Ak​​)=∏j​W(Aj​) for pairwise disjoint AjA_jAj​. Let ϱ(t,x)=e−x2/2t/2πt\varrho(t,x)=e^{-x^2/2t}/\sqrt{2\pi t}ϱ(t,x)=e−x2/2t/2πt​ be the heat kernel and Δk={0=t0<t1<⋯<tk≤1}\Delta_k=\{0=t_0<t_1<\dots<t_k\le1\}Δk​={0=t0​<t1​<⋯<tk​≤1}. Put ϱk(t,x)=∏j=1kϱ(tj−tj−1,xj−xj−1)\varrho_k(\mathbf t,\mathbf x)=\prod_{j=1}^k\varrho(t_j-t_{j-1},x_j-x_{j-1})ϱk​(t,x)=∏j=1k​ϱ(tj​−tj−1​,xj​−xj−1​) on Δk×Rk\Delta_k\times\mathbb R^kΔk​×Rk, with x0=0x_0=0x0​=0, and zero elsewhere. The Wiener chaos (7) is

Zβ=∑k≥0βkIk(ϱk)=1+∑k≥1βk∫Δk∫Rk∏i=1kW(ti,xi) ϱ(ti−ti−1,xi−xi−1) dxi dti.\mathcal Z_\beta=\sum_{k\ge0}\beta^kI_k(\varrho_k)=1+\sum_{k\ge1}\beta^k\int_{\Delta_k}\int_{\mathbb R^k}\prod_{i=1}^kW(t_i,x_i)\,\varrho(t_i-t_{i-1},x_i-x_{i-1})\,dx_i\,dt_i .Zβ​=k≥0∑​βkIk​(ϱk​)=1+k≥1∑​βk∫Δk​​∫Rk​i=1∏k​W(ti​,xi​)ϱ(ti​−ti−1​,xi​−xi−1​)dxi​dti​.

The discrete counterpart of IkI_kIk​ is the weighted U-statistic Skn(g)\mathcal S_k^n(g)Skn​(g) of (29): a sum of products ∏jω(ij,xj)\prod_j\omega(i_j,x_j)∏j​ω(ij​,xj​) over distinct times, weighted by averages of ggg over space–time rectangles of size 1n×2n\frac1n\times\frac2{\sqrt n}n1​×n​2​.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 2.1 (second bullet), proved as Proposition 5.4

If, in addition, λ(b)<∞\lambda(b)<\inftyλ(b)<∞ for all 0<b<β00<b<\beta_00<b<β0​ for some β0>0\beta_0>0β0​>0, then for every β>0\beta>0β>0

e−nλ(βn−1/4) Znω(βn−1/4)→(d)Z2β(n→∞).e^{-n\lambda(\beta n^{-1/4})}\,Z_n^\omega(\beta n^{-1/4})\xrightarrow{(d)}\mathcal Z_{\sqrt2\beta}\qquad(n\to\infty).e−nλ(βn−1/4)Znω​(βn−1/4)(d)​Z2​β​(n→∞).

Modified partition function: Proposition 5.3 (Theorem 2.1, first bullet)

Under mean zero and variance one alone, znω(βn−1/4)→(d)Z2β\mathfrak z_n^\omega(\beta n^{-1/4})\xrightarrow{(d)}\mathcal Z_{\sqrt2\beta}znω​(βn−1/4)(d)​Z2​β​.

Milestones

In the order the proof uses them:

  1. the norm ∥ϱk∥L22=1/(2kΓ(k/2+1))\|\varrho_k\|^2_{L^2}=1/(2^k\Gamma(k/2+1))∥ϱk​∥L22​=1/(2kΓ(k/2+1)) and the convergence of the chaos series (§3.4, Lemma 3.1);
  2. the L2L^2L2 structure of Skn\mathcal S_k^nSkn​ (Lemma 4.1);
  3. an approximation lemma for convergence in law (Lemma 4.2);
  4. convergence of n−3k/4Skn(g)n^{-3k/4}\mathcal S_k^n(g)n−3k/4Skn​(g) to Ik(g)I_k(g)Ik​(g), jointly over finitely many orders (Theorem 4.3);
  5. convergence of whole discrete chaos expansions (Lemma 4.4);
  6. the exact expansion znω(β)=∑k≤n2k/2βkSkn(pkn)\mathfrak z_n^\omega(\beta)=\sum_{k\le n}2^{k/2}\beta^k\mathcal S_k^n(p_k^n)znω​(β)=∑k≤n​2k/2βkSkn​(pkn​) (Lemma 5.2);
  7. a uniform L2L^2L2 bound on the discretised random walk kernels nk/2pknn^{k/2}p_k^nnk/2pkn​ (Lemma A.1);
  8. Proposition 5.3.

Significance

The theorem gives a universal scaling limit for the partition function in a regime where the polymer still moves diffusively but feels the disorder. As a corollary, log⁡Znω(βn−1/4)−nλ(βn−1/4)\log Z_n^\omega(\beta n^{-1/4})-n\lambda(\beta n^{-1/4})logZnω​(βn−1/4)−nλ(βn−1/4) converges in law, so the fluctuation exponent of the free energy is 000 in this regime. The companion results (point-to-point partition functions, Theorem 2.2) show that the rescaled polymer path measure converges to a continuum directed random polymer. Letting β\betaβ grow then interpolates between Gaussian behaviour and the Tracy–Widom GUE fluctuations of the KPZ class. The U-statistic machinery of Section 4 (discrete chaos expansions in an i.i.d. space–time field converging to multiple Wiener–Itô integrals) applies to other discrete models with polynomial chaos expansions.

The theorem is proved in the paper. To our knowledge it has no machine-checked proof, and Mathlib has no space–time white noise, no multiple Wiener integrals, no Wiener chaos, no Lindeberg–Feller theorem for triangular arrays and no local limit theorem for the simple random walk. A complete formalization would build each of these and check the paper's argument, including two statements that are false as printed (see Formalization scope).

Difficulty

The obvious route is to expand Znω(βn−1/4)Z_n^\omega(\beta n^{-1/4})Znω​(βn−1/4) in powers of β\betaβ and pass to the limit term by term. Two steps of that route do not go through as stated. First, the kkk-th term is a degenerate U-statistic of order kkk in the environment. Its convergence to IkI_kIk​ is not a classical central limit theorem: it needs joint control of all orders and a density argument in L2([0,1]k×Rk)L^2([0,1]^k\times\mathbb R^k)L2([0,1]k×Rk), and the space–time discretisation must respect the parity of the walk, which is why the rectangles have spatial length 2/n2/\sqrt n2/n​. Second, exchanging the limit with the infinite sum over kkk needs bounds on the discrete kernels nk/2pknn^{k/2}p_k^nnk/2pkn​ that are uniform in nnn and summable in kkk. Pointwise convergence from the local limit theorem is not enough. Passing from zn\mathfrak z_nzn​ to ZnZ_nZn​ also requires a central limit theorem for a triangular array whose law depends on nnn.

Formalization scope

The environment is ω : ℕ × ℤ → Ω → ℝ, independent and identically distributed, square integrable, with mean 000 and variance 111. Times i≥1i\ge1i≥1 are read. ZnZ_nZn​ and zn\mathfrak z_nzn​ are explicit averages over the 2n2^n2n step sequences. The white noise lives on [0,1]×R[0,1]\times\mathbb R[0,1]×R, since only t≤1t\le1t≤1 enters (7). IkI_kIk​ is a family of continuous linear maps on L2L^2L2 characterised by its values on indicators of products of disjoint sets. Every limit theorem quantifies over all white noises and all such families, and a separate item asserts that one exists. Zβ\mathcal Z_\betaZβ​ and Skn\mathcal S_k^nSkn​ are sums in L2L^2L2; real powers n−1/4n^{-1/4}n−1/4, n−3k/4n^{-3k/4}n−3k/4 are Real.rpow; λ\lambdaλ is Mathlib's cgf; convergence in law is TendstoInDistribution.

Normalisation of IkI_kIk​. The paper's normalisation of multiple integrals is not consistent (§3.2 and the remark on p. 19 differ by k!k!k!). The formalization follows (7) and the variance computation on p. 6: for ggg supported on Δk×Rk\Delta_k\times\mathbb R^kΔk​×Rk, E[Ik(g)2]=∥g∥2E[I_k(g)^2]=\|g\|^2E[Ik​(g)2]=∥g∥2.

Corrected statements. Two milestones are stated in the corrected form that the paper's proof establishes:

  • Lemma 4.1. The bound Q[Skn(g)2]≤n3k/2∥g∥2Q[\mathcal S_k^n(g)^2]\le n^{3k/2}\|g\|^2Q[Skn​(g)2]≤n3k/2∥g∥2 is false for general ggg when k≥2k\ge2k≥2, because permuted index vectors give the same product of environment variables. It is stated for ggg vanishing outside Δk×Rk\Delta_k\times\mathbb R^kΔk​×Rk, the only case Section 5 uses. "Mean zero" is stated for k≥1k\ge1k≥1, since S0n(g0)=g0\mathcal S_0^n(g_0)=g_0S0n​(g0​)=g0​.
  • Lemma 4.4. It is stated for Fock vectors whose components vanish outside the simplices, with square-summable norms, so that ∑kIk(gk)\sum_kI_k(g_k)∑k​Ik​(gk​) converges.

Theorem 4.5 and Lemma 4.6 (perturbed environments) are not part of the milestone list. Theorem 4.5 is false as printed: mean zero and a variance tending to 111 do not give a central limit theorem for a triangular array, and the Lindeberg condition named in its proof must be added. Lemma A.1 is stated for the point-to-line kernels only.

Trivializations ruled out. The limit is the chaos (7) built from a genuine white noise and its multiple integrals, not any random variable with a prescribed property. III is pinned down by WWW. Every infinite sum comes with a milestone proving its summability, and the partition function averages over all 2n2^n2n walk paths.

Infrastructure that would be reusable beyond this mission: space–time white noise and multiple Wiener–Itô integrals with their isometry, a Lindeberg–Feller central limit theorem, the local limit theorem for the simple random walk, and the Cramér–Wold device. Contributions of any of these, or of proofs of the milestones in any order, are welcome.

Selected references

  • T. Alberts, K. Khanin, J. Quastel, The intermediate disorder regime for directed polymers in dimension 1+1, Ann. Probab. 42 (2014), 1212–1256. arXiv:1202.4398
  • T. Alberts, K. Khanin, J. Quastel, The continuum directed random polymer, J. Stat. Phys. 154 (2014), 305–326. MR3162542
  • F. Comets, N. Yoshida, Directed polymers in random environment are diffusive at weak disorder, Ann. Probab. 34 (2006), 1746–1770. MR2271480
  • S. Janson, Gaussian Hilbert Spaces, Cambridge Tracts in Mathematics 129, Cambridge University Press, 1997. MR1474726
  • P. Billingsley, Convergence of Probability Measures, Wiley, 1968. MR0233396
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Control TheoryMechanism DesignOperations Research+1·Captain: mikedeng1

Optimal Electricity Demand Response Contracting with Responsiveness Incentives 2: The Producer's First-Best Value in Closed FormResearch Paper

Motivation

Electricity demand response asks consumers to lower their consumption during price events, when generation is expensive or scarce. Field trials such as the Low Carbon London experiment showed that consumers do react to price signals, but that the reaction is erratic: the average consumption falls while its variability stays high, and a producer that has to follow the load curve in real time pays for that variability. Aïd, Possamaï and Touzi (arXiv:1810.09063; Math. Oper. Res. 2022, doi:10.1287/moor.2021.1201) model this as a continuous-time principal–agent problem in which the consumer (the agent) controls both the level and the volatility of consumption, and the producer (the principal) designs a payment that rewards both.

The paper compares two benchmarks. In the second best, the producer observes only the consumption path and the consumer responds optimally to the contract; this is the subject of the companion mission of this series. In the first best, the producer dictates both the contract and the consumer's effort, subject only to the consumer's participation. The first best is the reference point against which the cost of moral hazard, the information rent, is measured. This mission formalizes the first-best value in closed form, Proposition 3.1 (i) of the paper.

The methodology follows the continuous-time principal–agent literature: Holmström and Milgrom (1987) for exponential utilities and linear contracts, Sannikov (2008) for the dynamic-programming view of the agent's continuation value, and Cvitanić, Possamaï and Touzi (2018) for contracts indexed on both the output and its quadratic variation.

Setting

Fix integers N,d≥0N,d\ge0N,d≥0 (usages for the mean effort and for the volatility effort), cost parameters μ∈(0,∞)N\mu\in(0,\infty)^Nμ∈(0,∞)N, λ∈(0,∞)d\lambda\in(0,\infty)^dλ∈(0,∞)d, nominal volatilities σ∈(0,∞)d\sigma\in(0,\infty)^dσ∈(0,∞)d, effort bounds Amax⁡>0A_{\max}>0Amax​>0 and 0<ε≤10<\varepsilon\le10<ε≤1, risk aversions r,p>0r,p>0r,p>0, a marginal volatility cost h>0h>0h>0, slopes κ,θ∈R\kappa,\theta\in\mathbb Rκ,θ∈R, a horizon T>0T>0T>0, an initial consumption X0∈RX_0\in\mathbb RX0​∈R and a reservation utility R0<0R_0<0R0​<0.

The consumer chooses a mean effort α\alphaα with values in A=∏i[0,μiAmax⁡]A=\prod_i[0,\mu_iA_{\max}]A=∏i​[0,μi​Amax​] and a responsiveness effort β\betaβ with values in B=[ε,1]dB=[\varepsilon,1]^dB=[ε,1]d, at cost

c(α,β)=c1(α)+12c2(β),c1(a)=12∑iai2μi,c2(b)=∑jσj2λj(bj−1−1).c(\alpha,\beta)=c_1(\alpha)+\tfrac12c_2(\beta),\qquad c_1(a)=\tfrac12\sum_i\frac{a_i^2}{\mu_i},\qquad c_2(b)=\sum_j\frac{\sigma_j^2}{\lambda_j}\big(b_j^{-1}-1\big).c(α,β)=c1​(α)+21​c2​(β),c1​(a)=21​i∑​μi​ai2​​,c2​(b)=j∑​λj​σj2​​(bj−1​−1).

The consumption XXX follows Xt=X0−∫0tαs⋅1 ds+∫0tσ(βs)⋅dWsX_t=X_0-\int_0^t\alpha_s\cdot\mathbf 1\,ds+\int_0^t\sigma(\beta_s)\cdot dW_sXt​=X0​−∫0t​αs​⋅1ds+∫0t​σ(βs​)⋅dWs​ with σ(b)=(σ1b1,…,σdbd)\sigma(b)=(\sigma_1\sqrt{b_1},\dots,\sigma_d\sqrt{b_d})σ(b)=(σ1​b1​​,…,σd​bd​​), in the weak sense: XXX is the canonical process on C([0,T],R)C([0,T],\mathbb R)C([0,T],R), and an admissible pair (ν,P)(\nu,\mathbb P)(ν,P) is a progressively measurable control ν=(α,β)\nu=(\alpha,\beta)ν=(α,β) with a probability measure under which XXX starts at X0X_0X0​ and solves the associated martingale problem.

The consumer values consumption by f(x)=κxf(x)=\kappa xf(x)=κx and the producer bears the generation cost g(x)=θxg(x)=\theta xg(x)=θx; write δ=κ−θ\delta=\kappa-\thetaδ=κ−θ. For a payment ξ\xiξ made at time TTT, the consumer's and the producer's criteria are

JA=EP[−e−r(ξ+∫0T(κXs−c(νs))ds)],JP=EP[−e−p(−ξ−∫0TθXsds−h2⟨X⟩T)].J_A=\mathbb E^{\mathbb P}\Big[-e^{-r\left(\xi+\int_0^T(\kappa X_s-c(\nu_s))ds\right)}\Big],\qquad J_P=\mathbb E^{\mathbb P}\Big[-e^{-p\left(-\xi-\int_0^T\theta X_sds-\frac h2\langle X\rangle_T\right)}\Big].JA​=EP[−e−r(ξ+∫0T​(κXs​−c(νs​))ds)],JP​=EP[−e−p(−ξ−∫0T​θXs​ds−2h​⟨X⟩T​)].

A contract is an FT\mathcal F_TFT​-measurable ξ\xiξ with uniform exponential moments (2.5). The first-best value is

VFB=sup⁡{JP(ξ,ν,P): ξ a contract, (ν,P) admissible, JA(ξ,ν,P)≥R0}.V^{FB}=\sup\big\{J_P(\xi,\nu,\mathbb P):\ \xi\text{ a contract},\ (\nu,\mathbb P)\text{ admissible},\ J_A(\xi,\nu,\mathbb P)\ge R_0\big\}.VFB=sup{JP​(ξ,ν,P): ξ a contract, (ν,P) admissible, JA​(ξ,ν,P)≥R0​}.

The consumer's Hamiltonians are Hm(z)=−inf⁡a∈A{a⋅1 z+c1(a)}H_m(z)=-\inf_{a\in A}\{a\cdot\mathbf 1\,z+c_1(a)\}Hm​(z)=−infa∈A​{a⋅1z+c1​(a)} and Hv(γ)=−12inf⁡b∈B{c2(b)−γ∣σ(b)∣2}H_v(\gamma)=-\frac12\inf_{b\in B}\{c_2(b)-\gamma|\sigma(b)|^2\}Hv​(γ)=−21​infb∈B​{c2​(b)−γ∣σ(b)∣2}. Finally ρ=rpr+p\rho=\frac{rp}{r+p}ρ=r+prp​, L0=−1rlog⁡(−R0)L_0=-\frac1r\log(-R_0)L0​=−r1​log(−R0​), U(x)=−e−pxU(x)=-e^{-px}U(x)=−e−px, μˉ=∑iμi\bar\mu=\sum_i\mu_iμˉ​=∑i​μi​ and x−=max⁡(0,−x)x^-=\max(0,-x)x−=max(0,−x).

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 3.1 (i)

Assume δ−T≤Amax⁡\delta^-T\le A_{\max}δ−T≤Amax​. Then

VFB=U(vˉ(0,X0)−L0),vˉ(0,X0)=δTX0+∫0T(12μˉ(δ−)2(T−t)2+Hv(−h−ρδ2(T−t)2))dt.V^{FB}=U\big(\bar v(0,X_0)-L_0\big),\quad \bar v(0,X_0)=\delta TX_0+\int_0^T\Big(\tfrac12\bar\mu(\delta^-)^2(T-t)^2+H_v\big(-h-\rho\delta^2(T-t)^2\big)\Big)dt.VFB=U(vˉ(0,X0​)−L0​),vˉ(0,X0​)=δTX0​+∫0T​(21​μˉ​(δ−)2(T−t)2+Hv​(−h−ρδ2(T−t)2))dt.

Milestones

  1. Proposition 2.1. The best responses a^(z)\hat a(z)a^(z), b^(γ)\hat b(\gamma)b^(γ) attain the infima defining HmH_mHm​, HvH_vHv​, and these Hamiltonians have explicit closed forms.
  2. (A.5). The auxiliary value Vˉ=sup⁡(ν,P)EP[−e−ρ(∫0T(δXt−c(νt))dt−h2⟨X⟩T)]\bar V=\sup_{(\nu,\mathbb P)}\mathbb E^{\mathbb P}\big[-e^{-\rho(\int_0^T(\delta X_t-c(\nu_t))dt-\frac h2\langle X\rangle_T)}\big]Vˉ=sup(ν,P)​EP[−e−ρ(∫0T​(δXt​−c(νt​))dt−2h​⟨X⟩T​)] is finite and negative, and VFB=R0(Vˉ/R0)1+p/rV^{FB}=R_0(\bar V/R_0)^{1+p/r}VFB=R0​(Vˉ/R0​)1+p/r.
  3. Proposition A.3 (i), with the explicit solution of p. 28.
Vˉ=−e−ρ(δTX0+∫0Tmˉ(t)dt),mˉ(t)=Hm(δ(T−t))+Hv(−h−ρδ2(T−t)2).\bar V=-e^{-\rho\left(\delta TX_0+\int_0^T\bar m(t)dt\right)},\qquad \bar m(t)=H_m(\delta(T-t))+H_v\big(-h-\rho\delta^2(T-t)^2\big).Vˉ=−e−ρ(δTX0​+∫0T​mˉ(t)dt),mˉ(t)=Hm​(δ(T−t))+Hv​(−h−ρδ2(T−t)2).

Significance

The closed form shows how the first-best value depends on each parameter: on the energy value discrepancy δ\deltaδ through the mean-effort term, on the volatility cost hhh and the effective risk aversion ρ\rhoρ through the volatility Hamiltonian, and on the reservation utility only through the shift by L0L_0L0​. It is one half of the paper's information rent (Proposition 3.4), the gap between the first- and second-best values, and it is the benchmark against which the calibrated contracts of the paper's Section 4 are judged.

The result is proved in the paper, partly by appeal to standard stochastic control arguments. To our knowledge it has no machine-checked proof. A formal proof requires a verification theorem for an exponential-utility control problem in the weak formulation, and a risk-sharing argument with a pathwise quadratic-variation term in the contract; both are reusable beyond this paper.

Difficulty

The deterministic parts, Proposition 2.1 and the algebra that turns (A.5) and the value of Vˉ\bar VVˉ into the goal, are calculus. The difficulty lies in the two stochastic steps. In (A.5), the producer's optimal payment for a given effort depends on ⟨X⟩T\langle X\rangle_T⟨X⟩T​; it must be realised as a measurable function of the path that is a contract in the sense of (2.5), uniformly over all admissible laws, and the participation constraint must be shown to bind. In Proposition A.3 (i), the upper bound on Vˉ\bar VVˉ must hold for every progressively measurable, path-dependent control, not only for Markov feedback controls; the paper invokes "standard stochastic control theory", which has to be made precise for controls of the volatility under a martingale-problem formulation, where no Brownian motion is given in advance.

Formalization scope

The canonical space is C([0,T],R)C([0,T],\mathbb R)C([0,T],R) with the coordinate σ-algebra and the canonical filtration; processes are indexed by [0,T][0,T][0,T]. Admissible pairs are given by a martingale problem: X0=X0X_0=X_0X0​=X0​ almost surely, and both Xt−X0+∫0tαs⋅1 dsX_t-X_0+\int_0^t\alpha_s\cdot\mathbf 1\,dsXt​−X0​+∫0t​αs​⋅1ds and its square minus ∫0t∣σ(βs)∣2ds\int_0^t|\sigma(\beta_s)|^2ds∫0t​∣σ(βs​)∣2ds are martingales. In the criteria, ⟨X⟩T\langle X\rangle_T⟨X⟩T​ is replaced by its almost-sure value ∫0T∣σ(βs)∣2ds\int_0^T|\sigma(\beta_s)|^2ds∫0T​∣σ(βs​)∣2ds; a contract remains any FT\mathcal F_TFT​-measurable function of the path. Expectations of utilities are negated lower Lebesgue integrals of exponentials in [−∞,0][-\infty,0][−∞,0], and every value is an extended-real supremum with sup⁡∅=−∞\sup\emptyset=-\inftysup∅=−∞. BBB is read as [ε,1]d[\varepsilon,1]^d[ε,1]d, with indices in Fin N and Fin d.

The Hamiltonians are defined by their infima, never by their closed forms, so that Proposition 2.1 is not true by definition, and the first-best value is a supremum over the model's own objects, not a variable pinned by hypotheses. Three hypotheses are added to the page: ε≤1\varepsilon\le1ε≤1 (so B≠∅B\ne\emptysetB=∅), R0<0R_0<0R0​<0 (so L0L_0L0​ is defined), and, for the goal only, δ−T≤Amax⁡\delta^-T\le A_{\max}δ−T≤Amax​, without which the printed 12μˉ(δ−)2(T−t)2\frac12\bar\mu(\delta^-)^2(T-t)^221​μˉ​(δ−)2(T−t)2 exceeds Hm(δ(T−t))H_m(\delta(T-t))Hm​(δ(T−t)) and contradicts the paper's own proof. Misprints corrected and disclosed in the items: the closed form of HmH_mHm​ in Proposition 2.1 is false for z−>Amax⁡z^->A_{\max}z−>Amax​ and is replaced by μˉ(mz−−m2/2)\bar\mu(m z^--m^2/2)μˉ​(mz−−m2/2) with m=z−∧Amax⁡m=z^-\wedge A_{\max}m=z−∧Amax​; the index range of b^\hat bb^ is j=1,…,dj=1,\dots,dj=1,…,d; on p. 28, ∫0tmˉ\int_0^t\bar m∫0t​mˉ is ∫tTmˉ\int_t^T\bar m∫tT​mˉ and "(A.11)" is (A.6).

The parts (ii)–(iii) of Proposition 3.1, the optimal efforts and the optimal contract, are not stated. Contributions welcome: a verification theorem for controlled martingale problems with bounded coefficients, exponential moment bounds uniform over admissible laws, and a pathwise quadratic variation on the canonical space.

Selected references

  • R. Aïd, D. Possamaï, N. Touzi, Optimal electricity demand response contracting with responsiveness incentives, arXiv:1810.09063v3, 2019; Math. Oper. Res. 2022. https://arxiv.org/abs/1810.09063
  • J. Cvitanić, D. Possamaï, N. Touzi, Dynamic programming approach to principal–agent problems, Finance Stoch. 22, 2018. https://arxiv.org/abs/1510.07111
  • B. Holmström, P. Milgrom, Aggregation and linearity in the provision of intertemporal incentives, Econometrica 55, 1987. https://doi.org/10.2307/1913238
  • Y. Sannikov, A continuous-time version of the principal–agent problem, Rev. Econ. Stud. 75, 2008. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-937X.2007.00463.x
  • I. Karatzas, S. Shreve, Brownian Motion and Stochastic Calculus, Springer, 1991, §5.4 (martingale problems and weak solutions). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4612-0949-2
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Optimal Electricity Demand Response Contracting with Responsiveness Incentives 1: The Producer's Second-Best Value in Closed FormResearch Paper

Motivation

Demand response asks electricity consumers to lower or smooth their consumption when generation is expensive, in exchange for payments. Field trials such as Low Carbon London showed two effects of such incentives: consumers reduce their average consumption, and the variability of their response depends on how much effort they put into it. A producer who cannot observe the consumer's individual usages, only the aggregate consumption path, faces a moral hazard problem: the payment can depend only on what is observed.

Aïd, Possamaï and Touzi (arXiv:1810.09063v3, 2019; Math. Oper. Res. 2022) cast this as a continuous-time principal–agent problem in which the consumer controls both the drift and the volatility of his consumption, and the producer pays for reductions in both. The volatility channel is what makes the problem new: the classical Holmström–Milgrom model (Econometrica 1987) controls only the drift. The paper uses the general reduction of Cvitanić, Possamaï and Touzi (Finance Stoch. 2018) to optimal contracts with volatility control, and obtains the producer's value in closed form up to a scalar minimisation. This mission formalizes that closed form.

Setting

Fix integers N,d≥0N,d\ge0N,d≥0, cost parameters μ∈(0,∞)N\mu\in(0,\infty)^Nμ∈(0,∞)N and λ∈(0,∞)d\lambda\in(0,\infty)^dλ∈(0,∞)d, nominal volatilities σ∈(0,∞)d\sigma\in(0,\infty)^dσ∈(0,∞)d, effort bounds Amax⁡>0A_{\max}>0Amax​>0 and ε∈(0,1]\varepsilon\in(0,1]ε∈(0,1], risk aversions r,p>0r,p>0r,p>0, a marginal cost of volatility h>0h>0h>0, marginal energy value κ\kappaκ and cost θ\thetaθ with δ:=κ−θ\delta:=\kappa-\thetaδ:=κ−θ, a horizon T>0T>0T>0, an initial consumption X0X_0X0​ and a reservation utility R0<0R_0<0R0​<0. Write μˉ:=∑iμi\bar\mu:=\sum_i\mu_iμˉ​:=∑i​μi​ and x−:=max⁡(0,−x)x^-:=\max(0,-x)x−:=max(0,−x).

Consumption. XXX is the canonical process on Ω=C([0,T],R)\Omega=C([0,T],\mathbb R)Ω=C([0,T],R) with its natural filtration F\mathbb FF. A control ν=(α,β)\nu=(\alpha,\beta)ν=(α,β) is progressively measurable, with αt∈A:=∏i[0,μiAmax⁡]\alpha_t\in A:=\prod_i[0,\mu_iA_{\max}]αt​∈A:=∏i​[0,μi​Amax​] (effort to reduce consumption) and βt∈B:=[ε,1]d\beta_t\in B:=[\varepsilon,1]^dβt​∈B:=[ε,1]d (effort to reduce volatility). Under ν\nuν the consumption follows, in the weak sense,

Xt=X0−∫0tαs⋅1 ds+∫0tσ(βs)⋅dWs,∣σ(b)∣2=∑jσj2bj.X_t=X_0-\int_0^t\alpha_s\cdot\mathbf 1\,ds+\int_0^t\sigma(\beta_s)\cdot dW_s,\qquad |\sigma(b)|^2=\sum_j\sigma_j^2b_j .Xt​=X0​−∫0t​αs​⋅1ds+∫0t​σ(βs​)⋅dWs​,∣σ(b)∣2=j∑​σj2​bj​.

Effort costs c(ν)=c1(α)+12c2(β)c(\nu)=c_1(\alpha)+\frac12c_2(\beta)c(ν)=c1​(α)+21​c2​(β) per unit time, with c1(a)=12∑iai2/μic_1(a)=\frac12\sum_ia_i^2/\mu_ic1​(a)=21​∑i​ai2​/μi​ and c2(b)=∑jσj2λj(bj−1−1)c_2(b)=\sum_j\frac{\sigma_j^2}{\lambda_j}(b_j^{-1}-1)c2​(b)=∑j​λj​σj2​​(bj−1​−1).

Criteria. For a payment ξ\xiξ at time TTT, the consumer's criterion is JA=E[−e−r(ξ+∫0T(κXs−c(νs))ds)]J_A=\mathbb E[-e^{-r(\xi+\int_0^T(\kappa X_s-c(\nu_s))ds)}]JA​=E[−e−r(ξ+∫0T​(κXs​−c(νs​))ds)] and the producer's is JP=E[U(−ξ−∫0TθXsds−h2⟨X⟩T)]J_P=\mathbb E[U(-\xi-\int_0^T\theta X_sds-\frac h2\langle X\rangle_T)]JP​=E[U(−ξ−∫0T​θXs​ds−2h​⟨X⟩T​)] with U(x)=−e−pxU(x)=-e^{-px}U(x)=−e−px. Contracts C\mathcal CC are the FT\mathcal F_TFT​-measurable ξ\xiξ with exponential moments of order m>1m>1m>1 uniformly over the consumer's responses (2.5). The consumer's value is VA(ξ)=sup⁡JAV_A(\xi)=\sup J_AVA​(ξ)=supJA​, and P⋆(ξ)\mathcal P^\star(\xi)P⋆(ξ) is the set of his optimal responses.

Second best. The producer offers ξ\xiξ, the consumer responds optimally, ties are broken in the producer's favour, and participation requires VA(ξ)≥R0V_A(\xi)\ge R_0VA​(ξ)≥R0​:

VSB:=sup⁡ξ∈C, VA(ξ)≥R0 sup⁡P⋆(ξ)JP(ξ,⋅),sup⁡∅=−∞.V^{SB}:=\sup_{\xi\in\mathcal C,\ V_A(\xi)\ge R_0}\ \sup_{\mathcal P^\star(\xi)}J_P(\xi,\cdot),\qquad\sup\emptyset=-\infty .VSB:=ξ∈C, VA​(ξ)≥R0​sup​ P⋆(ξ)sup​JP​(ξ,⋅),sup∅=−∞.

Hamiltonians. Hm(z)=−inf⁡a∈A{a⋅1 z+c1(a)}H_m(z)=-\inf_{a\in A}\{a\cdot\mathbf 1\,z+c_1(a)\}Hm​(z)=−infa∈A​{a⋅1z+c1​(a)} and Hv(γ)=−12inf⁡b∈B{c2(b)−γ∣σ(b)∣2}H_v(\gamma)=-\frac12\inf_{b\in B}\{c_2(b)-\gamma|\sigma(b)|^2\}Hv​(γ)=−21​infb∈B​{c2​(b)−γ∣σ(b)∣2}.

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 3.2 (i)

Assume δ−T≤Amax⁡\delta^-T\le A_{\max}δ−T≤Amax​. With qt(z)=h+rz2+p(z−δ(T−t))2q_t(z)=h+rz^2+p(z-\delta(T-t))^2qt​(z)=h+rz2+p(z−δ(T−t))2, L0=−1rlog⁡(−R0)L_0=-\frac1r\log(-R_0)L0​=−r1​log(−R0​),

mSB(t)=12μˉδ2(T−t)2−12inf⁡z∈R{μˉ(z−+δ(T−t))2−2Hv(−qt(z))},m_{SB}(t)=\frac12\bar\mu\delta^2(T-t)^2-\frac12\inf_{z\in\mathbb R}\Big\{\bar\mu\big(z^-+\delta(T-t)\big)^2-2H_v\big(-q_t(z)\big)\Big\},mSB​(t)=21​μˉ​δ2(T−t)2−21​z∈Rinf​{μˉ​(z−+δ(T−t))2−2Hv​(−qt​(z))}, VSB=U(v(0,X0)−L0),v(0,X0)=δTX0+∫0TmSB(s) ds.V^{SB}=U\big(v(0,X_0)-L_0\big),\qquad v(0,X_0)=\delta TX_0+\int_0^Tm_{SB}(s)\,ds .VSB=U(v(0,X0​)−L0​),v(0,X0​)=δTX0​+∫0T​mSB​(s)ds.

Milestones

  1. Proposition 2.1. The consumer's best responses a^i(z)=μi(z−∧Amax⁡)\hat a_i(z)=\mu_i(z^-\wedge A_{\max})a^i​(z)=μi​(z−∧Amax​) and b^j(γ)=(1∧(λjγ−)−1/2)∨ε\hat b_j(\gamma)=(1\wedge(\lambda_j\gamma^-)^{-1/2})\vee\varepsilonb^j​(γ)=(1∧(λj​γ−)−1/2)∨ε attain the infima defining HmH_mHm​ and HvH_vHv​, and
Hm(z)=μˉ(mz−−m22), m=z−∧Amax⁡;Hv(γ)=−12(c^2(γ)−γ∣σ^(γ)∣2).H_m(z)=\bar\mu\big(m z^--\tfrac{m^2}2\big),\ m=z^-\wedge A_{\max};\qquad H_v(\gamma)=-\tfrac12\big(\hat c_2(\gamma)-\gamma|\hat\sigma(\gamma)|^2\big).Hm​(z)=μˉ​(mz−−2m2​), m=z−∧Amax​;Hv​(γ)=−21​(c^2​(γ)−γ∣σ^(γ)∣2).
  1. Lemma A.1. With f0(q,γ)=q∣σ^(γ)∣2+c^2(γ)f_0(q,\gamma)=q|\hat\sigma(\gamma)|^2+\hat c_2(\gamma)f0​(q,γ)=q∣σ^(γ)∣2+c^2​(γ), F0(q):=inf⁡γ≤0f0(q,γ)=f0(q,−q)=−2Hv(−q)F_0(q):=\inf_{\gamma\le0}f_0(q,\gamma)=f_0(q,-q)=-2H_v(-q)F0​(q):=infγ≤0​f0​(q,γ)=f0​(q,−q)=−2Hv​(−q), and F0F_0F0​ is non-decreasing.
  2. Proposition A.4 (ii). A minimiser of z↦F0(h−k+rz2+p(z−y)2)+μˉ(z−+y)2z\mapsto F_0(h-k+rz^2+p(z-y)^2)+\bar\mu(z^-+y)^2z↦F0​(h−k+rz2+p(z−y)2)+μˉ​(z−+y)2 is pr+py\frac p{r+p}yr+pp​y when y≥0y\ge0y≥0, and lies in [y,pr+py][y,\frac p{r+p}y][y,r+pp​y] when y≤0y\le0y≤0.

A companion statement, Corollary 3.1 (i), gives the explicit off-peak payment rates zSB(t)=pr+pδ(T−t)z_{SB}(t)=\frac p{r+p}\delta(T-t)zSB​(t)=r+pp​δ(T−t) and γSB(t)=−h−rpr+pδ2(T−t)2\gamma_{SB}(t)=-h-\frac{rp}{r+p}\delta^2(T-t)^2γSB​(t)=−h−r+prp​δ2(T−t)2 when δ≥0\delta\ge0δ≥0.

Significance

The closed form reduces an infinite-dimensional contracting problem, a supremum over all path-dependent payments and all consumer responses, to a deterministic one-dimensional minimisation at each time. It is the basis of the paper's comparisons: with the first-best value it measures the cost of moral hazard, and its minimiser gives the price of energy and of responsiveness that the optimal contract charges, which the paper calibrates on Low Carbon London data.

The result is proved on paper. No part of it is machine-checked. A complete formalization would give a checked instance of a continuous-time principal–agent theorem with volatility control. It would also fix, in exact terms, the conventions the paper leaves implicit (weak solutions, the effort cap), and the printed misprints that this mission corrects.

Difficulty

The deterministic milestones are calculus on boxes. The goal is not. The upper bound VSB≤U(v(0,X0)−L0)V^{SB}\le U(v(0,X_0)-L_0)VSB≤U(v(0,X0​)−L0​) must hold for every FT\mathcal F_TFT​-measurable contract, not only for contracts of a convenient form. The step that fails in a direct attempt is the representation of an arbitrary contract: one needs that every ξ∈C\xi\in\mathcal Cξ∈C inducing an optimal response can be written as YTy0,Z,ΓY_T^{y_0,Z,\Gamma}YTy0​,Z,Γ​, an integral against dXdXdX and d⟨X⟩d\langle X\rangled⟨X⟩ driven by the consumer's continuation certainty equivalent. This is the main theorem of Cvitanić–Possamaï–Touzi (2018) and rests on second-order backward SDEs; it has no counterpart in Mathlib. Restricting the supremum to linear or representable contracts at the outset would assume exactly that theorem. The lower bound needs, for the candidate contract, existence of the consumer's optimal response as a weak solution and a verification argument for the producer's HJB equation.

Formalization scope

All objects live in the namespace DemandResponse.SecondBest, and all hypotheses are fields of a structure Params. Conventions:

  • Weak formulation. An admissible pair (ν,P)(\nu,\mathbb P)(ν,P) is a control and a probability measure on C([0,T],R)C([0,T],\mathbb R)C([0,T],R) with X0=X0X_0=X_0X0​=X0​ a.s., under which Xt−X0+∫0tαs⋅1 dsX_t-X_0+\int_0^t\alpha_s\cdot\mathbf 1\,dsXt​−X0​+∫0t​αs​⋅1ds and its square minus ∫0t∣σ(βs)∣2ds\int_0^t|\sigma(\beta_s)|^2ds∫0t​∣σ(βs​)∣2ds are F\mathbb FF-martingales. This is the martingale problem equivalent to weak solutions of (2.1); the paper deliberately leaves weak solutions informal (footnote 2). The pair, not the law alone, is the admissible object, because the cost depends on ν\nuν.
  • Quadratic variation. ⟨X⟩T\langle X\rangle_T⟨X⟩T​ in JPJ_PJP​ is its almost-sure value ∫0T∣σ(βs)∣2ds\int_0^T|\sigma(\beta_s)|^2ds∫0T​∣σ(βs​)∣2ds.
  • Values. Expected utilities are negated lower Lebesgue integrals, in [−∞,0][-\infty,0][−∞,0]; all suprema are in the extended reals, so the empty supremum is −∞-\infty−∞, as on p. 9.
  • Hamiltonians are defined by their infima, not by the closed forms of Proposition 2.1.
  • Indices are Fin N, Fin d; N=0N=0N=0, d=0d=0d=0 are allowed. b^j(γ)=1\hat b_j(\gamma)=1b^j​(γ)=1 when λjγ−≤1\lambda_j\gamma^-\le1λj​γ−≤1 (the paper's 0−1/2=+∞0^{-1/2}=+\infty0−1/2=+∞).
  • Added hypotheses. ε≤1\varepsilon\le1ε≤1 (B≠∅B\neq\emptysetB=∅), R0<0R_0<0R0​<0 (log⁡(−R0)\log(-R_0)log(−R0​) defined), and for the goal δ−T≤Amax⁡\delta^-T\le A_{\max}δ−T≤Amax​. The paper's closed form is computed with the effort cap removed ("ηA→0\eta_A\to0ηA​→0 as A↗∞A\nearrow\inftyA↗∞", p. 30), and with the capped effort of the model it is correct exactly under this hypothesis.
  • Corrected misprints. −2Hm(−q(z))-2H_m(-q(z))−2Hm​(−q(z)) in mSBm_{SB}mSB​ is read as −2Hv(−q(z))-2H_v(-q(z))−2Hv​(−q(z)); with HmH_mHm​ the infimum is −∞-\infty−∞. The printed Hm(z)=12μˉ(z−∧Amax⁡)2H_m(z)=\frac12\bar\mu(z^-\wedge A_{\max})^2Hm​(z)=21​μˉ​(z−∧Amax​)2 is false for z−>Amax⁡z^->A_{\max}z−>Amax​ and is corrected. "j=1,…,Nj=1,\dots,Nj=1,…,N" for b^\hat bb^ means j=1,…,dj=1,\dots,dj=1,…,d. In Proposition A.4 (ii) the open interval becomes closed, and "for large AAA" is read as ηA≡0\eta_A\equiv0ηA​≡0.

The goal is an equality of extended reals between VSBV^{SB}VSB, defined from the model, and an explicit real number. A formalization that defines VSBV^{SB}VSB over a restricted class of contracts, or with a real-valued supremum that returns 000 on unbounded sets, would trivialize or change it and is not the goal.

Needed infrastructure: continuous-time martingales on the canonical path space (Mathlib has Martingale and progressive measurability), existence of weak solutions with bounded coefficients, a representation theorem for contracts (Cvitanić–Possamaï–Touzi), and a verification theorem for the producer's HJB equation. The weak-formulation layer and the contract representation are reusable for any continuous-time principal–agent model with drift and volatility control. Contributions of any of these pieces, and proofs of the deterministic milestones, are welcome.

Selected references

  • R. Aïd, D. Possamaï, N. Touzi, Optimal Electricity Demand Response Contracting with Responsiveness Incentives, arXiv:1810.09063v3, 2019; Mathematics of Operations Research 47 (2022). https://arxiv.org/abs/1810.09063v3
  • J. Cvitanić, D. Possamaï, N. Touzi, Dynamic programming approach to principal–agent problems, Finance and Stochastics 22 (2018) 1–37. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00780-017-0344-4
  • B. Holmström, P. Milgrom, Aggregation and Linearity in the Provision of Intertemporal Incentives, Econometrica 55 (1987) 303–328. https://doi.org/10.2307/1913238
  • Y. Sannikov, A Continuous-Time Version of the Principal–Agent Problem, Review of Economic Studies 75 (2008) 957–984. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-937X.2008.00486.x
  • I. Karatzas, S. Shreve, Brownian Motion and Stochastic Calculus, 2nd ed., Springer 1991, §5.4 (martingale problem and weak solutions). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4612-0949-2
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Dynamic ProgrammingMachine LearningMarkov Chain+1·Captain: mikedeng1

Reinforcement Learning: An Introduction II: The Bellman Optimality Equation and the Existence of an Optimal PolicyTextbook

Motivation

Sutton and Barto's Reinforcement Learning: An Introduction (2nd ed., MIT Press, 2018) is the standard introductory text of the field. Its Chapter 3 sets up the model that the rest of Part I works in: the finite Markov decision process (MDP), the value functions of a policy, and the Bellman equations that relate the value of a state to the values of its successors. Section 3.6 then states the fact every planning and control method of the book relies on: in a finite MDP there is an optimal policy, its value is the unique solution of a system of nonlinear equations, and a policy that acts greedily with respect to that solution is optimal. Dynamic programming (Chapter 4), Monte Carlo control (Chapter 5), Sarsa and Q-learning (Chapter 6) are all methods for solving the Bellman optimality equation; their correctness statements presuppose that it has exactly one solution and that it identifies optimal behaviour.

The book is deliberately informal ("we chose not to produce a rigorous formal treatment", p. xiii): §3.6 asserts these facts without proof. The results themselves are classical, going back to Bellman (1957), Howard (1960) and Blackwell (1965); a textbook proof for discounted finite MDPs is in Puterman, Markov Decision Processes (Wiley, 1994), Chapter 6.

Setting

A finite MDP has a finite set of states S\mathcal SS, a finite nonempty set of actions A\mathcal AA, a finite set of rewards R⊂R\mathcal R \subset \mathbb RR⊂R, and dynamics

p(s′,r∣s,a)=Pr⁡{St=s′,Rt=r∣St−1=s,At−1=a},∑s′∈S∑r∈Rp(s′,r∣s,a)=1,p(s', r \mid s, a) = \Pr\{S_t = s', R_t = r \mid S_{t-1} = s, A_{t-1} = a\}, \qquad \sum_{s' \in \mathcal S}\sum_{r \in \mathcal R} p(s', r \mid s, a) = 1,p(s′,r∣s,a)=Pr{St​=s′,Rt​=r∣St−1​=s,At−1​=a},s′∈S∑​r∈R∑​p(s′,r∣s,a)=1,

Eqs. (3.2)–(3.3). From ppp one derives p(s′∣s,a)=∑rp(s′,r∣s,a)p(s' \mid s, a) = \sum_r p(s', r \mid s, a)p(s′∣s,a)=∑r​p(s′,r∣s,a) and r(s,a)=∑rr∑s′p(s′,r∣s,a)r(s, a) = \sum_r r \sum_{s'} p(s', r \mid s, a)r(s,a)=∑r​r∑s′​p(s′,r∣s,a), Eqs. (3.4)–(3.5).

A policy π\piπ gives a probability π(a∣s)\pi(a \mid s)π(a∣s) of each action in each state. Fix a discount rate 0≤γ<10 \le \gamma < 10≤γ<1. The return of a reward sequence is Gt=∑k≥0γkRt+k+1G_t = \sum_{k \ge 0} \gamma^k R_{t+k+1}Gt​=∑k≥0​γkRt+k+1​ (3.8). The state-value function and action-value function of π\piπ are the expected returns

vπ(s)=Eπ[Gt∣St=s],qπ(s,a)=Eπ[Gt∣St=s,At=a](3.12)–(3.13).v_\pi(s) = \mathbb E_\pi[G_t \mid S_t = s], \qquad q_\pi(s, a) = \mathbb E_\pi[G_t \mid S_t = s, A_t = a] \qquad (3.12)\text{–}(3.13).vπ​(s)=Eπ​[Gt​∣St​=s],qπ​(s,a)=Eπ​[Gt​∣St​=s,At​=a](3.12)–(3.13).

In the Lean development these are stateValue M γ π s and actionValue M γ π s a, computed as ∑kγk(Pπkrπ)(s)\sum_k \gamma^k (P_\pi^k r_\pi)(s)∑k​γk(Pπk​rπ​)(s) from the transition matrix Pπ(s,s′)=∑aπ(a∣s) p(s′∣s,a)P_\pi(s, s') = \sum_a \pi(a \mid s)\,p(s' \mid s, a)Pπ​(s,s′)=∑a​π(a∣s)p(s′∣s,a) and the expected reward rπ(s)=∑aπ(a∣s) r(s,a)r_\pi(s) = \sum_a \pi(a \mid s)\,r(s, a)rπ​(s)=∑a​π(a∣s)r(s,a) of the Markov chain the policy induces. A policy π\piπ is optimal (IsOptimalPolicy) if vπ(s)≥vπ′(s)v_\pi(s) \ge v_{\pi'}(s)vπ​(s)≥vπ′​(s) for every policy π′\pi'π′ and every state sss. The optimal value functions are

v∗(s)=max⁡πvπ(s)(3.15),q∗(s,a)=max⁡πqπ(s,a)(3.16),v_*(s) = \max_\pi v_\pi(s) \quad (3.15), \qquad q_*(s, a) = \max_\pi q_\pi(s, a) \quad (3.16),v∗​(s)=πmax​vπ​(s)(3.15),q∗​(s,a)=πmax​qπ​(s,a)(3.16),

optimalValue and optimalActionValue, with the maximum over all stochastic policies.

Formalization targets

Goal: the Bellman optimality equation and optimal policies (§3.6, pp. 62–64)

For every finite MDP and 0≤γ<10 \le \gamma < 10≤γ<1:

  1. the maximum in (3.15) is attained at every state;
  2. an optimal policy exists;
  3. v∗v_*v∗​ satisfies the Bellman optimality equation
v∗(s)=max⁡a∑s′,rp(s′,r∣s,a)[r+γv∗(s′)]for all s;(3.19)v_*(s) = \max_{a} \sum_{s', r} p(s', r \mid s, a)\big[r + \gamma v_*(s')\big] \quad \text{for all } s; \qquad (3.19)v∗​(s)=amax​s′,r∑​p(s′,r∣s,a)[r+γv∗​(s′)]for all s;(3.19)
  1. v∗v_*v∗​ is the only function on S\mathcal SS satisfying (3.19);
  2. every policy that assigns positive probability only to actions attaining the maximum in (3.19) is optimal.

Milestones

  • (3.9) Gt=Rt+1+γGt+1G_t = R_{t+1} + \gamma G_{t+1}Gt​=Rt+1​+γGt+1​ for bounded rewards, with the series convergent.
  • (3.14) the Bellman equation vπ(s)=∑aπ(a∣s)∑s′,rp(s′,r∣s,a)[r+γvπ(s′)]v_\pi(s) = \sum_a \pi(a \mid s) \sum_{s', r} p(s', r \mid s, a)[r + \gamma v_\pi(s')]vπ​(s)=∑a​π(a∣s)∑s′,r​p(s′,r∣s,a)[r+γvπ​(s′)], and (p. 60) its uniqueness: vπv_\pivπ​ is its only solution.
  • Exercise 3.15 adding a constant ccc to all rewards adds vc=c/(1−γ)v_c = c/(1-\gamma)vc​=c/(1−γ) to every value.
  • Exercises 3.18 and 3.19 vπ(s)=∑aπ(a∣s) qπ(s,a)v_\pi(s) = \sum_a \pi(a \mid s)\,q_\pi(s, a)vπ​(s)=∑a​π(a∣s)qπ​(s,a) and qπ(s,a)=∑s′,rp(s′,r∣s,a)[r+γvπ(s′)]q_\pi(s, a) = \sum_{s', r} p(s', r \mid s, a)[r + \gamma v_\pi(s')]qπ​(s,a)=∑s′,r​p(s′,r∣s,a)[r+γvπ​(s′)].
  • (3.16)–(3.17) the maximum defining q∗q_*q∗​ is attained and q∗(s,a)=∑s′,rp(s′,r∣s,a)[r+γv∗(s′)]q_*(s, a) = \sum_{s', r} p(s', r \mid s, a)[r + \gamma v_*(s')]q∗​(s,a)=∑s′,r​p(s′,r∣s,a)[r+γv∗​(s′)].
  • (3.20) the Bellman optimality equation for action values, q∗(s,a)=∑s′,rp(s′,r∣s,a)[r+γmax⁡a′q∗(s′,a′)]q_*(s, a) = \sum_{s', r} p(s', r \mid s, a)[r + \gamma \max_{a'} q_*(s', a')]q∗​(s,a)=∑s′,r​p(s′,r∣s,a)[r+γmaxa′​q∗​(s′,a′)].

Significance

The goal is what turns "find a good policy" into "solve a system of equations". Parts 3 and 4 identify v∗v_*v∗​ with the unique solution of (3.19), so any procedure that finds a solution of (3.19) has found v∗v_*v∗​; part 5 converts v∗v_*v∗​ into an optimal policy by a one-step search. Parts 1 and 2 say that the book's definition (3.15) makes sense: a single policy is simultaneously best at every state, so "the optimal value function" is well defined and shared by all optimal policies. Chapter 4's policy iteration and value iteration, and the fixed points of Q-learning, are statements about this equation. Exercises 3.18 and 3.19 are used, by number, in the proof of the policy gradient theorem (p. 325).

The mathematics is classical and proved in many texts; what is missing is a machine-checked version in the book's own model. Platform relatives exist in different models: FoundationsML.ReinforcementLearning.bellman_equations_unique_solution (uniqueness for a fixed policy, with an expected-reward kernel instead of p(s′,r∣s,a)p(s', r \mid s, a)p(s′,r∣s,a)), BertsekasDP.discounted_main_theorem (cost minimization over deterministic stationary policies), BanditAlgorithm.mdp_discounted_bellman_solution (existence of a solution with a greedy deterministic policy, rewards in [0,1][0,1][0,1]) and FoundationsRL.RLBasics.bellman_optimality (finite horizon). None of them states the book's result: the four-argument dynamics, stochastic policies, the maximum over all of them, uniqueness of the solution of (3.19), and optimality of every policy supported on greedy actions. This mission produces that statement and, with it, a vocabulary of finite-MDP definitions that the later missions of the series reuse.

Difficulty

The book's derivation of (3.19) (p. 63) starts from v∗(s)=max⁡aqπ∗(s,a)v_*(s) = \max_a q_{\pi_*}(s, a)v∗​(s)=maxa​qπ∗​​(s,a) with a policy π∗\pi_*π∗​ that is optimal at every state at once. The existence of such a policy is the substance of the goal, and it does not follow from the definition: (3.15) takes a separate maximum at each state, and a priori the maximizing policy could depend on the state. Uniqueness for (3.19) is likewise not a consequence of linear algebra, as it is for (3.14): the equation is nonlinear because of the maximum. The fixed point must be related to the value of an actual policy, and every policy's value must be bounded above by it.

Formalization scope

  • Model. S and A are finite types with A nonempty (without an action, max⁡a\max_amaxa​ is undefined). One action set serves every state, as the book's footnote 3 (p. 48) allows. Rewards form a finite set M.R : Finset ℝ and the dynamics are the four-argument M.p s a s' r with the normalization (3.3).
  • Discounting. All statements assume 0≤γ<10 \le \gamma < 10≤γ<1 (the continuing discounted case of §3.3). The episodic case with γ=1\gamma = 1γ=1 is not covered: the book's uniqueness claims then need every episode to terminate under every policy, which the chapter never states, and without it (3.19) can have many solutions (a state that loops to itself with reward 000 satisfies v(s)=v(s)v(s) = v(s)v(s)=v(s) for any value).
  • Value functions from returns. vπv_\pivπ​ and qπq_\piqπ​ are expected discounted returns, computed from the Markov chain the policy induces. They are not defined as solutions of the Bellman equations, and v∗v_*v∗​ is not defined as a solution of (3.19): either would make the goal true by definition. The Bellman equations are theorems.
  • Maxima. v∗v_*v∗​ and q∗q_*q∗​ are real suprema over the type of stochastic policies (Lean gives a supremum that does not exist the value 000); the goal and milestone (3.17) assert that these suprema are attained, so they are the book's maxima.
  • Conditional expectations. (3.17), (3.18) and (3.20) are stated in their finite-sum form over (s′,r)(s', r)(s′,r).
  • Exercises. Exercises 3.15, 3.18 and 3.19 have no printed solutions; the statements give the formalization's answers (vc=c/(1−γ)v_c = c/(1-\gamma)vc​=c/(1−γ) and the two displayed identities).
  • Reusable infrastructure. The definitions (MDP, Policy, trans, expReward, policyTrans, policyReward, stateValue, actionValue, optimalValue, optimalActionValue, IsOptimalPolicy) follow the conventions shared by the whole series and are meant to be merged with the finite-MDP layers of the later chapters. Lemmas on summability of the value series, the Bellman operator as a γ\gammaγ-contraction in the sup norm, and the Markov-chain identities for PπkP_\pi^kPπk​ are welcome as separate contributions.

Selected references

  • R. S. Sutton, A. G. Barto, Reinforcement Learning: An Introduction, 2nd ed., MIT Press, 2018, ISBN 9780262039246, Chapter 3. http://incompleteideas.net/book/the-book-2nd.html
  • R. Bellman, Dynamic Programming, Princeton University Press, 1957. https://doi.org/10.2307/j.ctv1nxcw0f
  • R. A. Howard, Dynamic Programming and Markov Processes, MIT Press, 1960.
  • D. Blackwell, "Discounted dynamic programming", Annals of Mathematical Statistics 36(1), 1965, 226–235. https://doi.org/10.1214/aoms/1177700285
  • M. L. Puterman, Markov Decision Processes: Discrete Stochastic Dynamic Programming, Wiley, 1994. https://doi.org/10.1002/9780470316887
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Analysis of Thompson Sampling for the Multi-armed Bandit Problem 1: Logarithmic Regret for Two ArmsResearch Paper

Motivation

Thompson Sampling (TS) is the oldest heuristic for the stochastic multi-armed bandit problem: it was proposed by Thompson in 1933 (Biometrika 25) and is used in practice for online advertising and recommendation, where it often performs as well as or better than upper-confidence-bound methods (Chapelle and Li, NIPS 2011; Scott 2010). Until 2012 its theoretical guarantees for the frequentist regret were weak: earlier analyses gave only o(T)o(T)o(T) regret in time TTT (Granmo 2010; May, Korda, Lee and Leslie 2011).

Agrawal and Goyal, Analysis of Thompson Sampling for the Multi-armed Bandit Problem (arXiv:1111.1797v3, COLT 2012), gave the first logarithmic finite-time bound on the expected regret of TS. This mission formalizes their two-armed result, Theorem 1. A companion mission covers the NNN-armed bound, Theorem 2.

Timeline. Lai and Robbins (1985) proved that every consistent algorithm has regret at least [∑iΔi/D(μi∥μ∗)+o(1)]ln⁡T\big[\sum_i \Delta_i/D(\mu_i\|\mu^*)+o(1)\big]\ln T[∑i​Δi​/D(μi​∥μ∗)+o(1)]lnT. Auer, Cesa-Bianchi and Fischer (2002) gave UCB1 with an O(∑iln⁡T/Δi)O(\sum_i \ln T/\Delta_i)O(∑i​lnT/Δi​) finite-time bound. Agrawal and Goyal (2012) proved O(ln⁡T/Δ+1/Δ3)O(\ln T/\Delta+1/\Delta^3)O(lnT/Δ+1/Δ3) for two-armed TS. Kaufmann, Korda and Munos (ALT 2012) and Agrawal and Goyal (AISTATS 2013) later proved asymptotically optimal bounds for Bernoulli TS.

Setting

There are two arms. Arm i∈{1,2}i\in\{1,2\}i∈{1,2} has a fixed, unknown reward distribution DiD_iDi​ supported in [0,1][0,1][0,1], with mean μi\mu_iμi​. Plays of an arm give i.i.d. rewards, independent of the other arm. Arm 1 is the unique optimal arm, μ1>μ2\mu_1>\mu_2μ1​>μ2​, and Δ=μ1−μ2\Delta=\mu_1-\mu_2Δ=μ1​−μ2​ is the gap.

Thompson Sampling for general stochastic bandits (Algorithm 2 of the paper) keeps, for each arm iii, a success count SiS_iSi​ and a failure count FiF_iFi​, both starting at 000. In each round t=1,2,…t=1,2,\dotst=1,2,… it

  1. samples, independently for each arm, θi(t)∼Beta(Si+1,Fi+1)\theta_i(t)\sim\mathrm{Beta}(S_i+1,F_i+1)θi​(t)∼Beta(Si​+1,Fi​+1);
  2. plays i(t)=arg⁡max⁡iθi(t)i(t)=\arg\max_i\theta_i(t)i(t)=argmaxi​θi​(t) and observes a reward r~t∼Di(t)\tilde r_t\sim D_{i(t)}r~t​∼Di(t)​;
  3. performs a Bernoulli trial with success probability r~t\tilde r_tr~t​, with outcome rt∈{0,1}r_t\in\{0,1\}rt​∈{0,1};
  4. increments Si(t)S_{i(t)}Si(t)​ if rt=1r_t=1rt​=1 and Fi(t)F_{i(t)}Fi(t)​ otherwise.

ki(t)k_i(t)ki​(t) is the number of plays of arm iii before round ttt. The expected regret in time TTT is

E[R(T)]=E[∑t=1T(μ1−μi(t))],\mathbb E[\mathcal R(T)]=\mathbb E\Big[\sum_{t=1}^T(\mu_1-\mu_{i(t)})\Big],E[R(T)]=E[t=1∑T​(μ1​−μi(t)​)],

the expectation being over the rewards and the algorithm's randomness.

The analysis uses the Beta cdf Fα,βbetaF^{beta}_{\alpha,\beta}Fα,βbeta​, the binomial cdf Fn,pBF^B_{n,p}Fn,pB​, and the random variable X(j,s,y)X(j,s,y)X(j,s,y): the number of independent Beta(s+1,j−s+1)\mathrm{Beta}(s+1,j-s+1)Beta(s+1,j−s+1) draws made before one exceeds yyy.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 1 (p. 3)

There is an absolute constant C>0C>0C>0 such that for every two-armed instance with rewards in [0,1][0,1][0,1] and μ1>μ2\mu_1>\mu_2μ1​>μ2​, and every T≥2T\ge 2T≥2,

E[R(T)]≤C(ln⁡TΔ+1Δ3).\mathbb E[\mathcal R(T)]\le C\Big(\frac{\ln T}{\Delta}+\frac1{\Delta^3}\Big).E[R(T)]≤C(ΔlnT​+Δ31​).

The constant is not fixed numerically: the paper states the theorem in O(⋅)O(\cdot)O(⋅) form (footnote 1), and the explicit display it reports on p. 8, 40ln⁡T/Δ+48/Δ3+18Δ40\ln T/\Delta+48/\Delta^3+18\Delta40lnT/Δ+48/Δ3+18Δ, is not the formal claim.

Milestones

  • Fact 1 (p. 12): Fα,βbeta(y)=1−Fα+β−1,yB(α−1)F^{beta}_{\alpha,\beta}(y)=1-F^B_{\alpha+\beta-1,y}(\alpha-1)Fα,βbeta​(y)=1−Fα+β−1,yB​(α−1) for positive integers α,β\alpha,\betaα,β.
  • Lemma 1 (p. 6): E[X(j,s,y)]=1/Fj+1,yB(s)−1\mathbb E[X(j,s,y)]=1/F^B_{j+1,y}(s)-1E[X(j,s,y)]=1/Fj+1,yB​(s)−1.
  • Lemma 6 (p. 13): Hoeffding-type bounds (10)–(11) on binomial cdfs.
  • Fact 2 (p. 13): every median of Binomial(n,p)\mathrm{Binomial}(n,p)Binomial(n,p) is ⌊np⌋\lfloor np\rfloor⌊np⌋ or ⌈np⌉\lceil np\rceil⌈np⌉.
  • Lemma 2 (p. 7): Pr⁡(E2(t))≥1−2/T2\Pr(E_2(t))\ge 1-2/T^2Pr(E2​(t))≥1−2/T2, where E2(t)={θ2(t)≤μ2+Δ/2 or k2(t)<24ln⁡T/Δ2}E_2(t)=\{\theta_2(t)\le\mu_2+\Delta/2\ \text{or}\ k_2(t)<24\ln T/\Delta^2\}E2​(t)={θ2​(t)≤μ2​+Δ/2 or k2​(t)<24lnT/Δ2}.
  • Lemma 3 (p. 7): a three-case bound on E[E[min⁡{X(j,s(j),y),T}∣s(j)]]\mathbb E\big[\mathbb E[\min\{X(j,s(j),y),T\}\mid s(j)]\big]E[E[min{X(j,s(j),y),T}∣s(j)]] for s(j)∼Binomial(j,μ1)s(j)\sim\mathrm{Binomial}(j,\mu_1)s(j)∼Binomial(j,μ1​).
  • Eq. (1) (p. 7): E[k2(T)]≤C(ln⁡T/Δ2+1/Δ4)\mathbb E[k_2(T)]\le C(\ln T/\Delta^2+1/\Delta^4)E[k2​(T)]≤C(lnT/Δ2+1/Δ4).

Significance

The result. Theorem 1 shows that TS, a randomized Bayesian heuristic with no explicit confidence bonus, has regret logarithmic in TTT on every two-armed instance, matching the order in TTT of the Lai–Robbins lower bound. The proof introduced a way to control the optimal arm's waiting time between plays through the Beta–Binomial duality, and later analyses of TS reuse that device.

Formalizing it. The result is proved on paper and has no machine-checked proof that we know of. The platform's existing TS results concern Gaussian TS (Lattimore and Szepesvári, Ch. 36) and Bayesian regret, which are different algorithms or regret notions. A formalization adds a reusable Lean model of Algorithm 2 on [0,1][0,1][0,1]-valued rewards, Beta–Binomial facts (Fact 1, Lemma 1), a binomial-median theorem, and binomial Hoeffding bounds. It also produces a proof with a constant that has been checked, since the printed constants contain an arithmetic slip.

Difficulty

The standard UCB argument does not transfer to TS. For UCB, the optimal arm's index exceeds its mean with high probability however often the arm has been played, because the exploration bonus is deterministic; the analysis then only has to count plays of the suboptimal arm until its own index concentrates, after Θ(ln⁡T/Δ2)\Theta(\ln T/\Delta^2)Θ(lnT/Δ2) plays. Under TS the optimal arm's sample θ1(t)\theta_1(t)θ1​(t) is random and, if the arm has been played rarely or its early rewards were poor, it falls below μ2\mu_2μ2​ with constant probability. The optimal arm may then wait a long, random time between plays, and the length of that wait depends on the arm's posterior, which in turn depends on how long it has waited. Counting plays of the suboptimal arm with a union bound over rounds, under the assumption that the optimal arm is already concentrated, therefore does not work; controlling these waiting times is the central difficulty and is where the 1/Δ31/\Delta^31/Δ3 dependence enters.

Formalization scope

  • Model. The instance is the platform's StochasticBandit 2 (a probability measure on R\mathbb RR per arm, mean banditArmMean), with the hypothesis that each reward law gives mass 111 to [0,1][0,1][0,1]. Lean arm 0 is the paper's arm 1 and Lean arm 1 the paper's arm 2. Lean rounds are indexed from 000.
  • Algorithm. Algorithm 2 is realized on one probability space with three independent i.i.d. tables: Beta draws W(i,t,a,b)∼Beta(a+1,b+1)W(i,t,a,b)\sim\mathrm{Beta}(a+1,b+1)W(i,t,a,b)∼Beta(a+1,b+1), rewards X(i,t)∼DiX(i,t)\sim D_iX(i,t)∼Di​, and uniforms V(i,t)V(i,t)V(i,t). Round ttt uses θi(t)=W(i,t,Si(t),Fi(t))\theta_i(t)=W(i,t,S_i(t),F_i(t))θi​(t)=W(i,t,Si​(t),Fi​(t)), r~t=X(i(t),t)\tilde r_t=X(i(t),t)r~t​=X(i(t),t) and rt=1{V(i(t),t)<r~t}r_t=\mathbf 1\{V(i(t),t)<\tilde r_t\}rt​=1{V(i(t),t)<r~t​}. Ties in the arg max go to the smaller index (a null event).
  • Values. Regret and expectations are lower Lebesgue integrals in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞]. X(j,s,y)X(j,s,y)X(j,s,y) is N∪{∞}\mathbb N\cup\{\infty\}N∪{∞}-valued, so Lemma 1 at y=1y=1y=1 reads ∞=∞\infty=\infty∞=∞, as in the paper.
  • O(·). The paper's O(⋅)O(\cdot)O(⋅) (footnote 1: f≤cgf\le cgf≤cg for n≥n0n\ge n_0n≥n0​) is stated with one universal constant C>0C>0C>0, quantified before the instance, the means and the horizon, for all T≥2T\ge 2T≥2. Eq. (1) is stated the same way, without its printed numerals.
  • Not trivial. The goal is about Algorithm 2 itself, with fresh Beta samples, fresh rewards and the Bernoulli coin. A statement about "any policy satisfying Lemma 2's event bound", or one whose constant depends on Δ\DeltaΔ, the reward laws or TTT, would not be Theorem 1.
  • Edge cases. μ1<1\mu_1<1μ1​<1 is assumed only in Lemma 3, where the paper's RRR and DDD require it. It is not a hypothesis of the goal.
  • Infrastructure. A complete proof needs: inverse-transform or order-statistics facts for Beta laws (Fact 1); geometric expectations; Hoeffding's inequality for sums of Bernoulli variables (Mathlib has Hoeffding/Azuma); the binomial median theorem (Jogdeo–Samuels; Kaas–Buhrman); and the coupling from the reward tables to the per-arm i.i.d. output stacks the paper reasons with. Fact 1, Lemma 6 and Fact 2 are reusable beyond this mission. Contributions to any milestone are welcome, and so is a direct proof of the regret bound with an explicit constant.

Selected references

  • S. Agrawal and N. Goyal, Analysis of Thompson Sampling for the Multi-armed Bandit Problem, COLT 2012; arXiv:1111.1797v3. https://arxiv.org/abs/1111.1797
  • W. R. Thompson, On the likelihood that one unknown probability exceeds another in view of the evidence of two samples, Biometrika 25 (1933) 285–294. https://doi.org/10.2307/2332286
  • T. L. Lai and H. Robbins, Asymptotically efficient adaptive allocation rules, Advances in Applied Mathematics 6 (1985) 4–22. https://doi.org/10.1016/0196-8858(85)90002-8
  • P. Auer, N. Cesa-Bianchi and P. Fischer, Finite-time analysis of the multiarmed bandit problem, Machine Learning 47 (2002) 235–256. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1013689704352
  • K. Jogdeo and S. M. Samuels, Monotone convergence of binomial probabilities and a generalization of Ramanujan's equation, Annals of Mathematical Statistics 39 (1968) 1191–1195. https://doi.org/10.1214/aoms/1177698243
  • R. Kaas and J. M. Buhrman, Mean, median and mode in binomial distributions, Statistica Neerlandica 34 (1980) 13–18. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9574.1980.tb00681.x
  • O. Chapelle and L. Li, An empirical evaluation of Thompson Sampling, NIPS 2011. https://papers.nips.cc/paper/4321-an-empirical-evaluation-of-thompson-sampling
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Blackwell Approachability and No-Regret Learning are Equivalent 1: Any Approachability Algorithm Yields Online Linear Optimization with Regret/T at Most 2κ Times Its Approachability RateResearch Paper

Motivation

Online decision makers often have to choose an action before seeing the cost assigned to it. A no-regret algorithm performs almost as well, in total, as the best single action that could have been chosen after the costs were known. In a related repeated-game problem, Blackwell approachability asks a player to keep the average of vector payoffs close to a desired set despite an adversary's choices. These two performance criteria look different: one compares scalar costs to a fixed benchmark, while the other measures a geometric distance. Abernethy, Bartlett, and Hazan establish algorithmic reductions between them, with explicit finite-horizon bounds in their COLT 2011 paper. This mission isolates the direction that turns an approachability algorithm into an online linear optimization algorithm.

The bound matters even when the input algorithm has no known rate. It relates the regret of the resulting online algorithm to the actual distance attained on the corresponding sequence. Any subsequent guarantee on that distance then yields a regret guarantee through the same reduction. The paper also gives the reverse reduction and an application to calibrated forecasting; those are separate missions in this series.

Setting

Fix a dimension ddd and a nonempty compact convex decision set K⊆RdK\subseteq\mathbb R^dK⊆Rd. On round ttt, an algorithm selects xt∈Kx_t\in Kxt​∈K using only the preceding cost vectors f1,…,ft−1f_1,\ldots,f_{t-1}f1​,…,ft−1​. The adversary then reveals ftf_tft​ in the Euclidean unit ball B2(1)B_2(1)B2​(1). The incurred linear cost is ⟨ft,xt⟩\langle f_t,x_t\rangle⟨ft​,xt​⟩. For a horizon TTT, regret compares these costs with the cost of the best single point of KKK evaluated on all TTT rounds:

Regret⁡T=∑t=1T⟨ft,xt⟩−min⁡x∈K∑t=1T⟨ft,x⟩.\operatorname{Regret}_T = \sum_{t=1}^T\langle f_t,x_t\rangle - \min_{x\in K}\sum_{t=1}^T\langle f_t,x\rangle.RegretT​=t=1∑T​⟨ft​,xt​⟩−x∈Kmin​t=1∑T​⟨ft​,x⟩.

The minimum exists because KKK is nonempty and compact. No probabilistic model for the cost sequence is assumed. The round index begins at one, and xtx_txt​ cannot depend on ftf_tft​.

The reduction uses κ=max⁡x∈K∥x∥\kappa=\max_{x\in K}\|x\|κ=maxx∈K​∥x∥, the maximum norm of a decision. Write a⊕xa\oplus xa⊕x for Euclidean concatenation of a scalar and a vector, an element of Rd+1\mathbb R^{d+1}Rd+1. The generated cone of a set MMM consists of its nonnegative scalar multiples, cone⁡(M)={αm:α≥0, m∈M}\operatorname{cone}(M)=\{\alpha m:\alpha\ge0,\ m\in M\}cone(M)={αm:α≥0, m∈M}. For a set CCC, its polar cone is C0={θ:⟨θ,z⟩≤0 for every z∈C}C^0=\{\theta:\langle\theta,z\rangle\le0\text{ for every }z\in C\}C0={θ:⟨θ,z⟩≤0 for every z∈C}. This negative-sign convention is fixed throughout the mission.

Algorithm 1 of the paper constructs a vector-payoff game. Its player actions are KKK, its adversary actions are B2(1)B_2(1)B2​(1), its payoff and target are

u(x,f)=(⟨f,x⟩/κ)⊕(−f),S=cone⁡({κ}×K)0.u(x,f)=\bigl(\langle f,x\rangle/\kappa\bigr)\oplus(-f), \qquad S=\operatorname{cone}(\{\kappa\}\times K)^0.u(x,f)=(⟨f,x⟩/κ)⊕(−f),S=cone({κ}×K)0.

A Blackwell approachability algorithm for this game chooses each xtx_txt​ from the preceding adversary moves. Its finite-horizon approachability rate on a given sequence is DT(A)=dist⁡(T−1∑t=1Tu(xt,ft),S)D_T(A)=\operatorname{dist}(T^{-1}\sum_{t=1}^T u(x_t,f_t),S)DT​(A)=dist(T−1∑t=1T​u(xt​,ft​),S), where distance means the Euclidean distance from a point to a set. The online algorithm created by Algorithm 1 uses precisely the same choices xtx_txt​.

Formalization targets

The goal is Theorem 16 of the paper. For every admissible history-based algorithm, every sequence of unit-ball costs, and every T≥1T\ge1T≥1, it asserts

Regret⁡TT≤2κDT(A).\frac{\operatorname{Regret}_T}{T}\le 2\kappa D_T(A).TRegretT​​≤2κDT​(A).

This is a statement about the rate actually obtained on the chosen cost sequence. It assumes no upper bound on DT(A)D_T(A)DT​(A) and does not require an oracle call in the statement. Thus it also covers algorithms whose behavior is specified directly rather than through an implementation of the oracle.

The milestone targets are the distance formula of Lemma 13, the conic distance identity in display (8) of Theorem 16's proof, and the existence of a valid halfspace oracle in Lemma 15. Lemma 13 says distance to a nonempty convex cone equals the attained maximum of a linear functional over the polar cone's unit ball. Display (8) specializes this geometry to Algorithm 1's lifted target. Lemma 15 says that every halfspace containing that target admits a player action whose payoff remains in the halfspace against every permitted adversary move. Together these statements specify the geometry and the oracle needed by the reduction.

Significance

Theorem 16 gives a numerical transfer rule: a bound on approachability distance for Algorithm 1's game immediately bounds average regret for the same sequence. Its factor depends only on the size κ\kappaκ of the decision set. This permits comparison of algorithms in a common finite-horizon language, without replacing the online cost sequence by a distribution or an asymptotic limit. The source paper uses this direction as one half of its equivalence between approachability and no-regret learning Abernethy, Bartlett, and Hazan, 2011.

The mathematical results are established in that paper; the goal here is a machine-checked Lean development of their statements and eventually their proofs. The mission also supplies reusable definitions of generated and polar cones, a Euclidean lift, a finite-history online algorithm, and regret over a compact decision set. Lemma 13 is useful outside this reduction whenever distance to a cone is compared with linear functionals on its polar. The proposed theorem items currently carry open proofs, while their statements and definition files are checked for elaboration in the pinned Lean environment.

Difficulty

The main obstacle is the change of viewpoint from a scalar regret comparison to distance from a set of lifted vector payoffs. A direct comparison of individual round costs does not describe that distance. The target is a polar cone in one additional Euclidean dimension, so a faithful account must keep the lift's geometry, the cone's sign convention, and the normalization by κ\kappaκ aligned. The distance formula also asserts that its maximum is attained. An encoding that merely writes an infimum or supremum with default values can silently make an edge case look valid without representing the paper's claim.

The oracle milestone has a separate quantifier demand. One selected action must work against every adversary move for each halfspace containing the target. It cannot be replaced by a possibly different action for each move, or by a claim only about tangent halfspaces. The theorem includes halfspaces with arbitrary offsets and zero normals because the source oracle accepts any containing halfspace.

Formalization scope

Vectors live in EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin d), and a⊕xa\oplus xa⊕x lives in EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin (d+1)) with the Euclidean norm. The generated cone uses exactly one nonnegative multiple of a point of the generating set, as in Definition 11. The polar uses ⟨θ,z⟩≤0\langle\theta,z\rangle\le0⟨θ,z⟩≤0, the opposite sign from a positive dual-cone convention. Distances are Euclidean point-to-set distances. All arithmetic is over exact real numbers, and the regret minimum ranges over the image of the nonempty compact set KKK.

The statements require κ>0\kappa>0κ>0 because the source payoff divides by κ\kappaκ. This excludes the degenerate case K={0}K=\{0\}K={0}, in which the source instance is undefined. They require T≥1T\ge1T≥1 wherever an average is formed. Admissible histories consist of unit-ball adversary moves, and each round's decision belongs to KKK. The dimension may be zero syntactically, but the positive-κ\kappaκ hypothesis excludes that case in results using Algorithm 1. These conditions keep the bound from being satisfied through Lean's default values for division by zero, distance to an empty set, or infima over empty sets.

The paper's display (8) writes cone⁡(κ⊕K)\operatorname{cone}(\kappa\oplus K)cone(κ⊕K) and labels its unit ball with dimension ddd; the formalization uses the cone of {κ}×K\{\kappa\}\times K{κ}×K in Rd+1\mathbb R^{d+1}Rd+1, matching Algorithm 1. Lemma 12's printed bipolar claim omits closedness; this mission does not use that uncorrected sentence as a milestone. The oracle statement covers all containing halfspaces. Contributions are welcome for the distance identity, the oracle existence result, and the final regret inequality, as well as geometric lemmas supporting those proofs.

Selected references

  • Jacob Abernethy, Peter L. Bartlett, and Elad Hazan, Blackwell Approachability and No-Regret Learning are Equivalent, Proceedings of the 24th Annual Conference on Learning Theory, JMLR Workshop and Conference Proceedings 19, 2011, pp. 27–46. Published paper.
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Machine LearningQuantum InformationTheoretical Computer Science·Captain: mikedeng1

Shadow Tomography of Quantum States 1: Polylogarithmically Many Copies Suffice to Estimate Every Acceptance Probability to Within εResearch Paper

Motivation

Learning an unknown quantum state is expensive. Full quantum state tomography of a DDD-dimensional mixed state ρ\rhoρ to accuracy ε\varepsilonε in trace distance needs on the order of D2/ε2D^2/\varepsilon^2D2/ε2 copies of ρ\rhoρ (O'Donnell–Wright 2016; Haah et al. 2017), and this is optimal. For a system of nnn qubits, D=2nD = 2^nD=2n, so full tomography is out of reach beyond a few dozen qubits.

Often one does not need the whole density matrix, only the behaviour of ρ\rhoρ on a fixed list of tests: acceptance probabilities of verification circuits, expectation values of observables, or the answers a piece of quantum advice gives to a set of questions. Aaronson (arXiv:1711.01053, STOC 2018) named this task shadow tomography and asked whether the number of copies can be polylogarithmic in both the dimension and the number of tests. Measuring each test on separate copies costs O~(M/ε2)\tilde O(M/\varepsilon^2)O~(M/ε2) copies, which is linear in MMM.

Timeline.

  • 2016: the question was posed at a mini-course without a name (Aaronson, The Complexity of Quantum States and Transformations, §8.3.1).
  • 2016: Harrow, Lin and Montanaro gave a correct "quantum OR" test, repairing an earlier flawed claim (arXiv:1607.03236, Corollary 11).
  • 2017–2018: Aaronson proved the first polylogarithmic bound, the theorem of this mission.
  • Later work improved the exponents, notably Bădescu–O'Donnell 2021, and introduced the related "classical shadows" of Huang–Kueng–Preskill 2020.

Setting

A mixed state of dimension DDD is a D×DD\times DD×D Hermitian positive semidefinite matrix ρ\rhoρ with Tr ρ=1\mathrm{Tr}\,\rho = 1Trρ=1. A two-outcome measurement is a D×DD\times DD×D Hermitian matrix EEE with all eigenvalues in [0,1][0,1][0,1]. Equivalently, 0⪯E⪯10 \preceq E \preceq \mathbb 10⪯E⪯1. It accepts ρ\rhoρ with probability Tr(Eρ)\mathrm{Tr}(E\rho)Tr(Eρ).

The state ρ⊗k\rho^{\otimes k}ρ⊗k consists of kkk independent copies of ρ\rhoρ. A measurement of ρ⊗k\rho^{\otimes k}ρ⊗k with classical output is a POVM: a finite family of positive semidefinite matrices PωP_\omegaPω​ on the kkk-register space with ∑ωPω=1\sum_\omega P_\omega = \mathbb 1∑ω​Pω​=1. Outcome ω\omegaω occurs with probability Tr(Pωρ⊗k)\mathrm{Tr}(P_\omega\rho^{\otimes k})Tr(Pω​ρ⊗k). An adaptive procedure that measures the copies one after another is described by one such POVM.

Problem 1 (shadow tomography). Given an unknown ρ\rhoρ and known two-outcome measurements E1,…,EME_1,\dots,E_ME1​,…,EM​, output numbers b1,…,bM∈[0,1]b_1,\dots,b_M\in[0,1]b1​,…,bM​∈[0,1] with ∣bi−Tr(Eiρ)∣≤ε|b_i-\mathrm{Tr}(E_i\rho)|\le\varepsilon∣bi​−Tr(Ei​ρ)∣≤ε for all iii, with success probability at least 1−δ1-\delta1−δ. The output must come from a measurement of ρ⊗k\rho^{\otimes k}ρ⊗k, with k=k(D,M,ε,δ)k=k(D,M,\varepsilon,\delta)k=k(D,M,ε,δ) as small as possible. The measurement may depend on the EiE_iEi​, but not on ρ\rhoρ.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 2, in the explicit form proved in §5

There is a universal constant CCC such that, for M≥2M\ge2M≥2 and 0<ε,δ≤1/20<\varepsilon,\delta\le 1/20<ε,δ≤1/2, Problem 1 is solvable with

k≤C log⁡Dε(log⁡log⁡D+log⁡1εε2)2log⁡4M(log⁡log⁡M+log⁡log⁡D+log⁡1ε+log⁡1δ)=O~(log⁡1/δε5log⁡4Mlog⁡D)k \le C\,\frac{\log D}{\varepsilon}\Big(\frac{\log\log D+\log\frac1\varepsilon}{\varepsilon^{2}}\Big)^{2}\log^4 M\Big(\log\log M+\log\log D+\log\frac1\varepsilon+\log\frac1\delta\Big) = \tilde O\Big(\frac{\log 1/\delta}{\varepsilon^5}\log^4 M\log D\Big)k≤CεlogD​(ε2loglogD+logε1​​)2log4M(loglogM+loglogD+logε1​+logδ1​)=O~(ε5log1/δ​log4MlogD)

copies. This is the last display of the proof (p. 19). The goal fixes no constant, so any improvement of CCC remains consistent with it.

Milestones

  • Theorem 13 (Harrow–Lin–Montanaro). A one-copy test that accepts with probability at least (1−ϵ)2/7(1-\epsilon)^2/7(1−ϵ)2/7 if some Tr(Eiρ)≥1−ϵ\mathrm{Tr}(E_i\rho)\ge1-\epsilonTr(Ei​ρ)≥1−ϵ, and at most 4ΔM4\Delta M4ΔM if ∑iTr(Eiρ)≤ΔM\sum_i\mathrm{Tr}(E_i\rho)\le\Delta M∑i​Tr(Ei​ρ)≤ΔM.
  • Lemma 14 (Quantum OR Bound). Deciding whether max⁡iTr(Eiρ)≥c\max_i\mathrm{Tr}(E_i\rho)\ge cmaxi​Tr(Ei​ρ)≥c or ≤c−ε\le c-\varepsilon≤c−ε with O(log⁡(1/δ)log⁡M/ε2)O(\log(1/\delta)\log M/\varepsilon^2)O(log(1/δ)logM/ε2) copies, independent of DDD.
  • Lemma 15 (Gentle Search). Finding jjj with Tr(Ejρ)≥c−ε\mathrm{Tr}(E_j\rho)\ge c-\varepsilonTr(Ej​ρ)≥c−ε with O(log⁡4Mε2(log⁡log⁡M+log⁡1δ))O(\frac{\log^4M}{\varepsilon^2}(\log\log M+\log\frac1\delta))O(ε2log4M​(loglogM+logδ1​)) copies.
  • Amplification claims (p. 16). The threshold tests Ei,t,±∗E^*_{i,t,\pm}Ei,t,±∗​ on ρ⊗q\rho^{\otimes q}ρ⊗q accept with probability at least 5/65/65/6 when the hypothesis is off by ε\varepsilonε, and at most 1/31/31/3 when it is within ε/2\varepsilon/2ε/2.
  • Markov claim (p. 17). The postselection test FtF_tFt​ on an arbitrary, possibly entangled, qqq-register state accepts with probability at most aq(a+ε/4)q\frac{a q}{(a+\varepsilon/4)q}(a+ε/4)qaq​.
  • Lemma 12 (Quantum Union Bound, probability part). Measurements each accepting with probability at least 1−ε1-\varepsilon1−ε all accept in succession with probability at least 1−2Mε1-2M\sqrt\varepsilon1−2Mε​.
  • Chernoff claim (p. 18). 1−Tr(Ftρ⊗q)≤ε4/log⁡2D1-\mathrm{Tr}(F_t\rho^{\otimes q})\le\varepsilon^4/\log^2D1−Tr(Ft​ρ⊗q)≤ε4/log2D.
  • Proposition 20. Promise-gap thresholds for all iii at once can be decided with O(log⁡(M/δ)/ε2)O(\log(M/\delta)/\varepsilon^2)O(log(M/δ)/ε2) copies.

Significance

The result. Theorem 2 shows that a state of exponential dimension can be learned "for all practical purposes" on exponentially many tests from polynomially many copies. Applications in the paper include a bound on quantum advice and one-way communication, and implications for quantum money and copy-protection. It also shows that the information needed to predict many measurement outcomes is far smaller than the description of ρ\rhoρ.

Formalizing it. The theorem is proved in the paper, and later work improves its exponents. As far as is known it has not been machine-checked. A complete development formalizes the gentle-measurement toolkit (Lemma 12, Lemma 14, Lemma 15), the amplification of two-outcome measurements on tensor powers, and the postselection argument. These are standard tools of quantum learning theory and quantum complexity with no formal counterpart yet. Lemma 14 and Lemma 15 are reusable beyond this mission.

Difficulty

The naive approach measures the EiE_iEi​ directly on shared copies. A measurement that is likely to reject disturbs the state, so later measurements see a damaged state, and separate copies per measurement cost MMM copies.

The proof needs three ingredients:

  • a gentle search that finds a measurement on which the current hypothesis is wrong while damaging the copies only slightly;
  • a potential argument showing that postselection cannot happen too often;
  • a uniform control of the damage.

The potential argument has to hold for the state after postselection, which is correlated or entangled across registers. Independence-based concentration fails there, which is why the Markov claim, not a Chernoff bound, governs that step. Theorem 13 itself rests on a delicate ancilla-based procedure of Harrow, Lin and Montanaro, and the mission cites it as a milestone without its proof.

Formalization scope

  • Representation.
    • Operators are complex matrices over a finite index type, and states use the published WildeQIT.IsDensityOperator (positive semidefinite, trace one).
    • A two-outcome measurement is IsEffect E: both EEE and 1−E\mathbb 1-E1−E are positive semidefinite.
    • ρ⊗k\rho^{\otimes k}ρ⊗k is a matrix indexed by kkk-tuples Fin k → n.
    • A measurement with output is a POVM structure with a finite outcome type. Probabilities are real parts of traces.
  • Quantifier order of the goal. ∃C\exists C∃C, then for all D,M,ε,δD,M,\varepsilon,\deltaD,M,ε,δ there is kkk; then for all EiE_iEi​ there are a POVM and outputs bbb; then for all ρ\rhoρ. Choosing the measurement after ρ\rhoρ would make the goal trivial (output the true values with k=0k=0k=0), and this order rules that out.
  • Disclosed hypotheses.
    • Theorem 2 assumes M≥2M\ge2M≥2, ε≤1/2\varepsilon\le1/2ε≤1/2 and δ≤1/2\delta\le1/2δ≤1/2. These keep the logarithmic factors positive; at M=1M=1M=1 the bound would force k=0k=0k=0.
    • Lemma 14 assumes M≥2M\ge2M≥2, and Lemmas 14 and 15 bound δ\deltaδ.
    • Theorem 13 assumes ϵ≤1/2\epsilon\le1/2ϵ≤1/2, as in Harrow–Lin–Montanaro's Corollary 11.
    • The Chernoff claim assumes D≥2D\ge2D≥2.
  • Conventions.
    • All logarithms are natural, including inside log⁡log⁡\log\logloglog.
    • Amplified tests use real thresholds.
    • "Applied in succession" in Lemma 12 uses Lüders instruments (E\sqrt{E}E​ Kraus operators), in the order E1,E2,…E_1,E_2,\dotsE1​,E2​,….
    • The hypothesis ρt\rho_tρt​ enters the amplification claims only as the number a=Tr(Eρt)a=\mathrm{Tr}(E\rho_t)a=Tr(Eρt​).
  • Printed steps not drafted.
    • The printed ε−4\varepsilon^{-4}ε−4 form of Theorem 2 relies on an external online-learning algorithm that is only sketched.
    • The halting rule of §5 is unspecified, because Lemma 15 always returns an index.
    • The asymptotic claims pt≥0.9/Dqp_t\ge0.9/D^qpt​≥0.9/Dq for t=o(log⁡2D/ε4)t=o(\log^2D/\varepsilon^4)t=o(log2D/ε4) and t=O(qlog⁡D/ε)t=O(q\log D/\varepsilon)t=O(qlogD/ε) use a circular o(⋅)o(\cdot)o(⋅).
    • The trace-distance part of Lemma 12 has an unquantified O(⋅)O(\cdot)O(⋅).
    • Lemma 12's printed bound 1−2Mε1-2M\sqrt\varepsilon1−2Mε​ is weaker than its use on p. 18. It is stated as printed. The proof of the goal must retune constants or use Wilde's stronger 1−2Mε1-2\sqrt{M\varepsilon}1−2Mε​-type bound.
  • Contributions welcome. Proofs of any milestone; a formal Hoeffding bound for binomial counts of product effects; the gentle measurement lemma for Lüders instruments; Naimark dilation for effects.

Selected references

  • S. Aaronson, Shadow Tomography of Quantum States, STOC 2018; arXiv:1711.01053v2, 2018. https://arxiv.org/abs/1711.01053
  • A. W. Harrow, C. Y.-Y. Lin, A. Montanaro, Sequential measurements, disturbance and property testing, SODA 2017. https://arxiv.org/abs/1607.03236
  • M. M. Wilde, Sequential decoding of a general classical-quantum channel, Proc. R. Soc. A, 2013. https://arxiv.org/abs/1303.0808
  • R. O'Donnell, J. Wright, Efficient quantum tomography, STOC 2016. https://arxiv.org/abs/1508.01907
  • J. Haah, A. W. Harrow, Z. Ji, X. Wu, N. Yu, Sample-optimal tomography of quantum states, IEEE Trans. Inf. Theory, 2017. https://arxiv.org/abs/1508.01797
  • C. Bădescu, R. O'Donnell, Improved quantum data analysis, STOC 2021. https://arxiv.org/abs/2011.10908
  • H.-Y. Huang, R. Kueng, J. Preskill, Predicting many properties of a quantum system from very few measurements, Nature Physics, 2020. https://arxiv.org/abs/2002.08953
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Bandit AlgorithmsMachine LearningOptimization+1·Captain: mikedeng1

Reinforcement Learning: An Introduction I: The Gradient Bandit Algorithm Is Stochastic Gradient AscentTextbook

Motivation

The multi-armed bandit is the simplest setting in which a learner must trade off exploiting what it knows against exploring what it does not: one situation, kkk actions, and a reward drawn from an unknown distribution each time an action is taken. Chapter 2 of Sutton and Barto's Reinforcement Learning: An Introduction (2nd ed., MIT Press, 2018) uses it to introduce, in the smallest possible setting, ideas that run through the rest of the book: incremental estimation with a step size, the bias introduced by the initial estimate, soft-max policies over learned preferences, and learning by following the gradient of expected reward.

The chapter ends with the gradient bandit algorithm (§2.8), which learns a numerical preference for each action instead of a value estimate. A shaded box on pp. 38–40 shows that its expected update is exactly a gradient-ascent step on the expected reward, so the algorithm is an instance of stochastic gradient ascent. The same argument, a score-function (likelihood-ratio) identity with a baseline, reappears in Chapter 13 as the REINFORCE algorithm and the policy gradient theorem. The bandit case is where the book first carries it out in full.

Setting

Actions are 1,…,k1, \dots, k1,…,k. Each action xxx has a reward distribution νx\nu_xνx​ on R\mathbb RR with finite mean q∗(x)q_*(x)q∗​(x), the true action value. At each step the learner holds a vector of action preferences H=(H(1),…,H(k))∈RkH = (H(1), \dots, H(k)) \in \mathbb R^kH=(H(1),…,H(k))∈Rk and selects action AAA with the soft-max probability

π(a)=eH(a)∑b=1keH(b)(2.11).\pi(a) = \frac{e^{H(a)}}{\sum_{b=1}^k e^{H(b)}} \qquad (2.11).π(a)=∑b=1k​eH(b)eH(a)​(2.11).

Given A=xA = xA=x, a reward R∼νxR \sim \nu_xR∼νx​ is received. The expected reward is E[R]=∑xπ(x) q∗(x)\mathbb E[R] = \sum_x \pi(x)\, q_*(x)E[R]=∑x​π(x)q∗​(x), a smooth function of HHH. With a step size α>0\alpha > 0α>0 and a baseline B∈RB \in \mathbb RB∈R, the gradient bandit update (2.12) is

H′(A)=H(A)+α(R−B)(1−π(A)),H′(a)=H(a)−α(R−B) π(a)  (a≠A).H'(A) = H(A) + \alpha (R - B)(1 - \pi(A)), \qquad H'(a) = H(a) - \alpha (R - B)\,\pi(a) \ \ (a \ne A).H′(A)=H(A)+α(R−B)(1−π(A)),H′(a)=H(a)−α(R−B)π(a)  (a=A).

The chapter's estimation sections use a single action's rewards R1,R2,…R_1, R_2, \dotsR1​,R2​,…. The sample average after n−1n-1n−1 selections is Qn=(R1+⋯+Rn−1)/(n−1)Q_n = (R_1 + \cdots + R_{n-1})/(n-1)Qn​=(R1​+⋯+Rn−1​)/(n−1), with an arbitrary initial value Q1Q_1Q1​. A constant step size α∈(0,1]\alpha \in (0,1]α∈(0,1] updates Qn+1=Qn+α[Rn−Qn]Q_{n+1} = Q_n + \alpha [R_n - Q_n]Qn+1​=Qn​+α[Rn​−Qn​] (2.5). The trace of one oˉ0=0\bar o_0 = 0oˉ0​=0, oˉn=oˉn−1+α(1−oˉn−1)\bar o_n = \bar o_{n-1} + \alpha (1 - \bar o_{n-1})oˉn​=oˉn−1​+α(1−oˉn−1​) defines the step size βn=α/oˉn\beta_n = \alpha / \bar o_nβn​=α/oˉn​ (2.8)–(2.9).

Formalization targets

Goal: the expected update is the gradient step

For every action aaa, with A∼πA \sim \piA∼π and R∣A=x∼νxR \mid A = x \sim \nu_xR∣A=x∼νx​,

E[H′(a)]=H(a)+α ∂ E[R]∂H(a),\mathbb E\bigl[H'(a)\bigr] = H(a) + \alpha\, \frac{\partial\, \mathbb E[R]}{\partial H(a)} ,E[H′(a)]=H(a)+α∂H(a)∂E[R]​,

that is, the update (2.12) equals the exact gradient-ascent step (2.13) in expected value, for every baseline BBB that does not depend on the selected action.

Milestones

  1. (2.3): Qn+1=Qn+1n[Rn−Qn]Q_{n+1} = Q_n + \tfrac1n [R_n - Q_n]Qn+1​=Qn​+n1​[Rn​−Qn​] for n≥1n \ge 1n≥1, including Q2=R1Q_2 = R_1Q2​=R1​ for arbitrary Q1Q_1Q1​.
  2. (2.6): Qn+1=(1−α)nQ1+∑i=1nα(1−α)n−iRiQ_{n+1} = (1-\alpha)^n Q_1 + \sum_{i=1}^n \alpha(1-\alpha)^{n-i} R_iQn+1​=(1−α)nQ1​+∑i=1n​α(1−α)n−iRi​, with weights summing to one.
  3. Exercise 2.7: with βn=α/oˉn\beta_n = \alpha/\bar o_nβn​=α/oˉn​, Qn+1=∑i=1nα(1−α)n−ioˉnRiQ_{n+1} = \sum_{i=1}^n \frac{\alpha(1-\alpha)^{n-i}}{\bar o_n} R_iQn+1​=∑i=1n​oˉn​α(1−α)n−i​Ri​ for n≥1n \ge 1n≥1, weights summing to one, and no dependence on Q1Q_1Q1​.
  4. Shift invariance (p. 37): adding a constant ccc to every preference leaves π\piπ unchanged.
  5. Exercise 2.9: for k=2k = 2k=2, π(1)=σ(H(1)−H(2))\pi(1) = \sigma(H(1) - H(2))π(1)=σ(H(1)−H(2)) with σ(x)=1/(1+e−x)\sigma(x) = 1/(1+e^{-x})σ(x)=1/(1+e−x).
  6. Soft-max derivative (p. 40): ∂π(x)/∂H(a)=π(x)(1a=x−π(a))\partial \pi(x)/\partial H(a) = \pi(x)(\mathbb 1_{a=x} - \pi(a))∂π(x)/∂H(a)=π(x)(1a=x​−π(a)).
  7. Zero-sum gradient (p. 39): ∑x∂π(x)/∂H(a)=0\sum_x \partial \pi(x)/\partial H(a) = 0∑x​∂π(x)/∂H(a)=0.
  8. Performance gradient as an expectation (p. 39): ∂E[R]/∂H(a)=E[(R−B)(1a=A−π(a))]\partial \mathbb E[R]/\partial H(a) = \mathbb E[(R - B)(\mathbb 1_{a=A} - \pi(a))]∂E[R]/∂H(a)=E[(R−B)(1a=A​−π(a))].

Significance

The result. The identity makes a model-free algorithm, which uses only the sampled action and reward, an unbiased estimator of the gradient of a quantity that depends on the unknown q∗q_*q∗​. It therefore places the gradient bandit algorithm within stochastic approximation, where convergence theory for stochastic gradient methods applies. It also explains the role of the baseline: any baseline independent of the action leaves the expected update unchanged, so the choice of baseline can only affect the variance of the update, as Figure 2.5 shows empirically. The estimation milestones make precise two claims the chapter uses repeatedly: sample averages can be maintained incrementally, and constant step sizes produce an exponentially recency-weighted average biased by Q1Q_1Q1​. Exercise 2.7 removes that bias.

Formalizing it. All of these results are elementary and proved (or left as routine exercises) in the book. None of them is formalized on Prove2Me or, as far as is known, in Mathlib. What this mission adds is a machine-checked version of the book's argument with the reward model and baseline condition stated precisely, and a reusable soft-max layer (definition, partial derivatives, shift invariance) for later missions of this series, in particular the policy gradient theorem of Chapter 13.

Difficulty

The mathematics is beginning calculus, as the book says. The formal difficulty lies elsewhere. The goal is an identity between an expectation over a two-stage random experiment (an action from π\piπ, then a reward from νA\nu_AνA​) and a partial derivative in one coordinate of a vector-valued parameter. A proof has to justify exchanging the finite sum with the derivative and splitting the reward integral, and it has to use integrability of each νx\nu_xνx​. It also needs the fact that the baseline term vanishes because ∑x∂π(x)/∂H(a)=0\sum_x \partial\pi(x)/\partial H(a) = 0∑x​∂π(x)/∂H(a)=0. A scalar-parameter version of the log-sum-exp derivative does not suffice: the book differentiates in one coordinate H(a)H(a)H(a) while all other preferences are held fixed. For Exercise 2.7 the obvious unrolling of (2.6) does not apply directly, because the step size βn\beta_nβn​ varies with nnn and the book states neither the weights nor the range of α\alphaα.

Formalization scope

  • Actions are Fin k. Every statement quantifies over some action, so k≥1k \ge 1k≥1 whenever it has content. Preferences are vectors Fin k → ℝ. The partial derivative in coordinate aaa is the derivative of h↦f(update H a h)h \mapsto f(\text{update } H\ a\ h)h↦f(update H a h) at H(a)H(a)H(a). The soft-max derivative milestone is stated with HasDerivAt, so it also asserts differentiability.
  • Rewards: each νx\nu_xνx​ is a probability measure on R\mathbb RR with Integrable identity and mean q∗(x)q_*(x)q∗​(x). The expectation of a function of (A,R)(A, R)(A,R) is ∑xπ(x)∫⋅ dνx\sum_x \pi(x) \int \cdot \, d\nu_x∑x​π(x)∫⋅dνx​. The book's normal-distribution testbed is only an example.
  • The baseline is a fixed real BBB, the book's "any scalar that does not depend on" the action (pp. 39–40). The book's Bt=RˉtB_t = \bar R_tBt​=Rˉt​, the average of past rewards, is covered once one conditions on the past. Footnote 1 on p. 37 states that the chapter's experiments used a Rˉt\bar R_tRˉt​ that also included RtR_tRt​. That baseline depends on AtA_tAt​, and the identity does not cover it.
  • Rewards of one action are a sequence indexed from 111. Q1Q_1Q1​ is arbitrary, and 00=10^0 = 100=1 as in the book (p. 33), so α=1\alpha = 1α=1 is included in (2.6).
  • Exercise 2.7 speaks of "a conventional constant step size α>0\alpha > 0α>0". The formalization takes α∈(0,1]\alpha \in (0,1]α∈(0,1], the range of the constant step size in (2.5). For α=2\alpha = 2α=2 the trace oˉn\bar o_noˉn​ vanishes at every even nnn and βn\beta_nβn​ is undefined. "Without initial bias" is read as "for n≥1n \ge 1n≥1, Qn+1Q_{n+1}Qn+1​ is the displayed weighted average of R1,…,RnR_1, \dots, R_nR1​,…,Rn​ with weights summing to one", which in particular does not involve Q1Q_1Q1​.
  • Exercise 2.9 is read as the two equalities π(1)=σ(H(1)−H(2))\pi(1) = \sigma(H(1)-H(2))π(1)=σ(H(1)−H(2)) and π(2)=σ(H(2)−H(1))\pi(2) = \sigma(H(2)-H(1))π(2)=σ(H(2)−H(1)).
  • A trivializing formalization is ruled out: the goal is about the expected value of the algorithm's update (2.12) under the joint law of action and reward, not the soft-max derivative alone and not a version in which the reward is replaced by its mean or the expectation is taken over AAA only.
  • Not formalized: the UCB rule (2.10) and the 10-armed testbed, which carry no provable claim in the chapter, and the stochastic-approximation conditions (2.7), which the book cites without proof.
  • Welcome contributions: a general soft-max library (derivatives, Jacobian, log-sum-exp) over a finite type, reusable for Chapter 13, and proofs of the milestones in the listed order.

Selected references

  • R. S. Sutton, A. G. Barto, Reinforcement Learning: An Introduction, 2nd ed., MIT Press, 2018, ISBN 9780262039246, Chapter 2, pp. 25–46. http://incompleteideas.net/book/the-book-2nd.html
  • R. J. Williams, Simple statistical gradient-following algorithms for connectionist reinforcement learning, Machine Learning 8 (1992) 229–256. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00992696
  • H. Robbins, S. Monro, A stochastic approximation method, Annals of Mathematical Statistics 22 (1951) 400–407. https://doi.org/10.1214/aoms/1177729586
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CombinatoricsOperations ResearchOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Project Scheduling with Time Windows and Scarce Resources V: A Schedule Is Inventory-Feasible iff It Resolves Every Minimal Surplus and Shortage SetTextbook

Motivation

In make-to-order production, chemical process industries and other manufacturing settings modelled as projects, activities do not only occupy machines for a while: they also consume intermediate products at their start and deposit products into storage facilities at their completion. Storage is bounded above by a tank or warehouse capacity and below by a safety stock. Resources of this kind are called cumulative resources (or inventory resources, reservoirs in the constraint-programming literature). They were introduced into resource-constrained project scheduling by Neumann and Schwindt (2002), and Chapter 2 of Neumann, Schwindt and Zimmermann, Project Scheduling with Time Windows and Scarce Resources (2nd ed., Springer 2003), develops their theory in §2.12.

A scheduler handling cumulative resources needs a finite combinatorial description of which schedules respect the inventory bounds at every instant, because the time axis is continuous and cannot be checked point by point in a search procedure. Theorem 2.12.4 of the book gives such a description, and it is the basis of the branch-and-bound procedure of Neumann and Schwindt for the problem PSc∣temp∣Cmax⁡PSc|temp|C_{\max}PSc∣temp∣Cmax​.

Setting

A project consists of activities V={0,1,…,n+1}V=\{0,1,\dots,n+1\}V={0,1,…,n+1} with n≥1n\ge 1n≥1, where 000 is the project beginning and n+1n+1n+1 the project completion. Activity iii has an integer duration pi≥0p_i\ge 0pi​≥0, with p0=pn+1=0p_0=p_{n+1}=0p0​=pn+1​=0 and pi>0p_i>0pi​>0 for the real activities.

For each cumulative resource kkk in a set Rγ\mathcal R^\gammaRγ, every activity iii has an integer demand rikr_{ik}rik​. If rik<0r_{ik}<0rik​<0, activity iii withdraws −rik-r_{ik}−rik​ units of kkk at its start; if rik>0r_{ik}>0rik​>0, it deposits rikr_{ik}rik​ units at its completion; rik=0r_{ik}=0rik​=0 means kkk is not used. The demand r0kr_{0k}r0k​ of the project beginning is the initial stock. Write Vk−={i∣rik<0}V_k^-=\{i\mid r_{ik}<0\}Vk−​={i∣rik​<0} and Vk+={i∣rik>0}V_k^+=\{i\mid r_{ik}>0\}Vk+​={i∣rik​>0}. Each resource has a safety stock R‾k∈Z\underline R_k\in\mathbb ZR​k​∈Z and a storage capacity R‾k∈Z\overline R_k\in\mathbb ZRk​∈Z.

A schedule is a vector S=(Si)i∈VS=(S_i)_{i\in V}S=(Si​)i∈V​ of real start times with S0=0S_0=0S0​=0 and Si≥0S_i\ge 0Si​≥0. The active set and the inventory of kkk at time t≥0t\ge 0t≥0 are

Ak(S,t)={i∈Vk−∣Si≤t}∪{i∈Vk+∣Si+pi≤t},rk(S,t)=∑i∈Ak(S,t)rik.\mathcal A_k(S,t)=\{i\in V_k^-\mid S_i\le t\}\cup\{i\in V_k^+\mid S_i+p_i\le t\},\qquad r_k(S,t)=\sum_{i\in\mathcal A_k(S,t)} r_{ik}.Ak​(S,t)={i∈Vk−​∣Si​≤t}∪{i∈Vk+​∣Si​+pi​≤t},rk​(S,t)=i∈Ak​(S,t)∑​rik​.

The schedule is inventory-feasible if R‾k≤rk(S,t)≤R‾k\underline R_k\le r_k(S,t)\le\overline R_kR​k​≤rk​(S,t)≤Rk​ for all kkk and all t≥0t\ge 0t≥0.

Two standing assumptions of the section are used throughout: (2.12.1) R‾k≤∑i∈Vrik≤R‾k\underline R_k\le\sum_{i\in V}r_{ik}\le\overline R_kR​k​≤∑i∈V​rik​≤Rk​, so the final inventory is admissible; and Remark 2.12.2, R‾k≤0≤R‾k\underline R_k\le 0\le\overline R_kR​k​≤0≤Rk​.

A nonempty F⊆VF\subseteq VF⊆V is a kkk-surplus set if ∑i∈Frik>R‾k\sum_{i\in F}r_{ik}>\overline R_k∑i∈F​rik​>Rk​, and a kkk-shortage set if ∑i∈Frik<R‾k\sum_{i\in F}r_{ik}<\underline R_k∑i∈F​rik​<R​k​. A kkk-surplus set FFF is minimal if no kkk-surplus set arises from FFF by removing a nonempty set of replenishing activities, and none arises by adding a nonempty set of depleting activities. Minimal kkk-shortage sets are defined with the roles of replenishing and depleting activities exchanged. Fk+\mathcal F_k^+Fk+​ and Fk−\mathcal F_k^-Fk−​ denote the minimal kkk-surplus and kkk-shortage sets.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 2.12.4

A schedule SSS is inventory-feasible if and only if

∀k, ∀F∈Fk+ ∃j∈F, i∉F: rjk>0, rik<0, Sj+pj≥Si,\forall k,\ \forall F\in\mathcal F_k^+\ \exists j\in F,\ i\notin F:\ r_{jk}>0,\ r_{ik}<0,\ S_j+p_j\ge S_i,∀k, ∀F∈Fk+​ ∃j∈F, i∈/F: rjk​>0, rik​<0, Sj​+pj​≥Si​, ∀k, ∀F∈Fk− ∃j∈F, i∉F: rjk<0, rik>0, Sj≥Si+pi.\forall k,\ \forall F\in\mathcal F_k^-\ \exists j\in F,\ i\notin F:\ r_{jk}<0,\ r_{ik}>0,\ S_j\ge S_i+p_i.∀k, ∀F∈Fk−​ ∃j∈F, i∈/F: rjk​<0, rik​>0, Sj​≥Si​+pi​.

Milestones

  1. The invariance claim after Remark 2.12.2 (p. 131): adding the same integer aka_kak​ to r0kr_{0k}r0k​, R‾k\underline R_kR​k​ and R‾k\overline R_kRk​ does not change the set of inventory-feasible schedules.
  2. Lemma 2.12.3 (a): for every kkk-surplus set FFF there is a minimal kkk-surplus set F′F'F′ with ∅≠F′∩Vk+⊆F∩Vk+\emptyset\ne F'\cap V_k^+\subseteq F\cap V_k^+∅=F′∩Vk+​⊆F∩Vk+​ and F′∩Vk−⊇F∩Vk−F'\cap V_k^-\supseteq F\cap V_k^-F′∩Vk−​⊇F∩Vk−​.
  3. Lemma 2.12.3 (b): the shortage counterpart.
  4. Theorem 2.12.4 (a) on its own: the upper constraints rk(S,t)≤R‾kr_k(S,t)\le\overline R_krk​(S,t)≤Rk​ hold for all t≥0t\ge 0t≥0 iff condition (a) holds.
  5. Theorem 2.12.4 (b) on its own: the lower constraints hold for all t≥0t\ge 0t≥0 iff condition (b) holds.

Significance

The theorem turns a constraint over a continuum of time points into finitely many disjunctions, each a choice among precedence relations. An inventory excess caused by a minimal surplus set is removed by a start-to-completion relation Sj+pj≥SiS_j+p_j\ge S_iSj​+pj​≥Si​ (a replenishment is postponed until after a withdrawal starts, equivalently a maximum time lag), and a shortage by a completion-to-start relation Sj≥Si+piS_j\ge S_i+p_iSj​≥Si​+pi​. Consequences stated in the book: the feasible region of PSc∣temp∣Cmax⁡PSc|temp|C_{\max}PSc∣temp∣Cmax​ is a finite union of polyhedra; branching on these relations, organized as pairs of strict orders and reflexive relations, is a complete search scheme; and minimal delaying alternatives for surplus and shortage sets can be enumerated. Because every problem with renewable resources can be rewritten as one with cumulative resources (p. 130), the book also concludes that this union of polyhedra is in general disconnected.

The result is proved in the book (and in Neumann and Schwindt, 2002). To our knowledge it has no machine-checked proof. This mission produces a Lean formalization of the model, of the one-sided minimality notion, and of the two-sided characterization with its supporting lemma.

Difficulty

The combinatorial core is simple to state but easy to state wrongly. The natural first idea, to use inclusion-minimal surplus sets as for renewable resources, gives a different family Fk+\mathcal F_k^+Fk+​ and a false theorem: the book's minimality allows removing only replenishing activities and adding only depleting ones. The existence lemma needs Remark 2.12.2 to keep at least one replenishing activity in the minimal set, and the sufficiency direction needs (2.12.1) to guarantee a depleting activity outside the minimal set. Both membership conditions of the active set are closed at ttt, so activities that deplete or replenish exactly at the critical instant must be counted on the correct side; a half-open reading changes which schedules are feasible. The initial stock r0kr_{0k}r0k​ is handled by the same active-set rule as any other demand, which matters for the invariance claim.

Formalization scope

  • Activities are Fin (n + 2), activity n+1n+1n+1 is Fin.last (n + 1); resources are an arbitrary type K. Demands, safety stocks and capacities are integers (ℤ); start times are reals (ℝ); durations are natural numbers cast to ℝ.
  • The inventory constraints are required for every t≥0t\ge 0t≥0. The book prints (2.12.2) for 0≤t≤dˉ0\le t\le\bar d0≤t≤dˉ, but its proof of Theorem 2.12.4 works with an arbitrary t≥0t\ge 0t≥0 (the necessity half uses the last completion time of a replenishing activity, which need not be at most dˉ\bar ddˉ). The two readings coincide for schedules with Sn+1≤dˉS_{n+1}\le\bar dSn+1​≤dˉ whose activities all finish by Sn+1S_{n+1}Sn+1​.
  • A schedule satisfies S0=0S_0=0S0​=0 and Si≥0S_i\ge 0Si​≥0 and is not required to be time-feasible; time lags play no role in this section's results and are not part of the model.
  • (2.12.1) and Remark 2.12.2 are explicit hypotheses (TotalDemandWithinBounds, BoundsStraddleZero) wherever the book's proofs use them. Surplus and shortage sets are nonempty by definition, and minimality uses proper inclusions.
  • A formalization in which Fk+\mathcal F_k^+Fk+​ is empty or trivial (for instance, minimality with non-strict inclusions, which no set satisfies) makes condition (a) vacuous; the definitions here follow p. 131 exactly, and a concrete instance with a nonempty Fk+\mathcal F_k^+Fk+​ has been checked locally.

Reusable parts: the cumulative-resource model and inventory profile, which later missions on continuous cumulative resources (§2.12.2) or on the NP-completeness of PSc∣temp∣Cmax⁡PSc|temp|C_{\max}PSc∣temp∣Cmax​ (Theorem 2.12.1) can build on. Contributions welcome: proofs of the lemmas, of either half of the theorem, and finite-sum lemmas about Finset.filter that the proofs need.

Selected references

  • K. Neumann, C. Schwindt, J. Zimmermann, Project Scheduling with Time Windows and Scarce Resources, 2nd ed., Springer, 2003, §2.12.1, pp. 128–135. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-24800-2
  • K. Neumann, C. Schwindt, Project scheduling with inventory constraints, Mathematical Methods of Operations Research 56 (2003) 513–533 (cited in the book as 2002). https://doi.org/10.1007/s001860200251
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Convex OptimizationDiscrete GeometryLinear Optimization+2·Captain: mikedeng1

Understanding and Using Linear Programming XI: The KKT Conditions and the Unique Smallest Enclosing BallTextbook

Motivation

The smallest enclosing ball problem asks, for finitely many points p1,…,pn∈Rdp_1,\dots,p_n\in\mathbb{R}^dp1​,…,pn​∈Rd, for a ball of the smallest radius that contains all of them. It appears in clustering, in collision detection and bounding-volume hierarchies, in facility location (placing one service point so that the farthest client is as close as possible), and in the analysis of geometric algorithms. Sylvester posed the planar version in 1857; Megiddo (1983) gave a linear-time algorithm in fixed dimension, and Welzl (1991) a simple randomized one.

This mission formalizes Section 8.7 of Matoušek and Gärtner, Understanding and Using Linear Programming (Springer, 2007), which uses the problem to introduce convex programming. Unlike the geometric problems of the book's Chapter 2, the smallest ball cannot be written as a linear program. The section shows instead that it is a convex quadratic program, derives the Karush–Kuhn–Tucker (KKT) conditions for convex programs in equational form from the duality theorem of linear programming, and uses them to prove that the smallest enclosing ball exists and is unique. It is the book's bridge from linear to convex optimization.

Setting

A function f:Rn→Rf:\mathbb{R}^n\to\mathbb{R}f:Rn→R is convex if f((1−t)x+ty)≤(1−t)f(x)+tf(y)f((1-t)x+ty)\le(1-t)f(x)+tf(y)f((1−t)x+ty)≤(1−t)f(x)+tf(y) for all x,y∈Rnx,y\in\mathbb{R}^nx,y∈Rn and t∈[0,1]t\in[0,1]t∈[0,1]. A convex program in equational form is

minimize f(x)subject to Ax=b, x≥0,\text{minimize } f(x)\quad\text{subject to } Ax=b,\ x\ge 0,minimize f(x)subject to Ax=b, x≥0,

with AAA a real m×nm\times nm×n matrix with columns a1,…,ana_1,\dots,a_na1​,…,an​, b∈Rmb\in\mathbb{R}^mb∈Rm and fff convex. A vector xxx is feasible if Ax=bAx=bAx=b and x≥0x\ge 0x≥0 componentwise, and optimal if it is feasible and f(x)≤f(x′)f(x)\le f(x')f(x)≤f(x′) for every feasible x′x'x′. For differentiable fff, ∇f(x)\nabla f(x)∇f(x) is the row vector of partial derivatives, so ∇f(x∗)(x−x∗)\nabla f(x^*)(x-x^*)∇f(x∗)(x−x∗) is a scalar.

For points p1,…,pn∈Rdp_1,\dots,p_n\in\mathbb{R}^dp1​,…,pn​∈Rd, write P={p1,…,pn}P=\{p_1,\dots,p_n\}P={p1​,…,pn​} and let QQQ be the d×nd\times nd×n matrix whose jjjth column is pjp_jpj​. The program studied is

(8.15)minimize f(x)=xTQTQx−∑j=1nxj pjTpjsubject to ∑j=1nxj=1, x≥0.\text{(8.15)}\qquad \text{minimize } f(x)=x^TQ^TQx-\sum_{j=1}^n x_j\,p_j^Tp_j\quad\text{subject to } \sum_{j=1}^n x_j=1,\ x\ge 0 .(8.15)minimize f(x)=xTQTQx−j=1∑n​xj​pjT​pj​subject to j=1∑n​xj​=1, x≥0.

A ball is a closed Euclidean ball B(c,r)={z∈Rd:∥z−c∥≤r}B(c,r)=\{z\in\mathbb{R}^d:\|z-c\|\le r\}B(c,r)={z∈Rd:∥z−c∥≤r}. The ball B(c,r)B(c,r)B(c,r) is the unique smallest enclosing ball of a set SSS if r≥0r\ge 0r≥0, S⊆B(c,r)S\subseteq B(c,r)S⊆B(c,r), every ball containing SSS has radius at least rrr, and every ball containing SSS of radius at most rrr has center ccc.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 8.7.4

For n≥1n\ge 1n≥1 points p1,…,pn∈Rdp_1,\dots,p_n\in\mathbb{R}^dp1​,…,pn​∈Rd, the objective fff of (8.15) is convex, and

  1. (8.15) has an optimal solution x∗x^*x∗;
  2. there is a point p∗p^*p∗ with p∗=Qx∗p^*=Qx^*p∗=Qx∗ for every optimal x∗x^*x∗, and for every optimal x∗x^*x∗
−f(x∗)≥0andB(p∗,−f(x∗)) is the unique smallest enclosing ball of P.-f(x^*)\ge 0\quad\text{and}\quad B\big(p^*,\sqrt{-f(x^*)}\big)\ \text{is the unique smallest enclosing ball of } P .−f(x∗)≥0andB(p∗,−f(x∗)​) is the unique smallest enclosing ball of P.

Milestones

  • Fact 8.7.1. For C⊆RnC\subseteq\mathbb{R}^nC⊆Rn convex, fff differentiable and convex, and x∗∈Cx^*\in Cx∗∈C: x∗x^*x∗ minimizes fff over CCC iff ∇f(x∗)(x−x∗)≥0\nabla f(x^*)(x-x^*)\ge 0∇f(x∗)(x−x∗)≥0 for all x∈Cx\in Cx∈C.
  • Proposition 8.7.2 (KKT conditions). For fff convex with continuous partial derivatives and x∗x^*x∗ feasible: x∗x^*x∗ is optimal iff there is y~∈Rm\tilde y\in\mathbb{R}^my~​∈Rm with
∇f(x∗)j+y~Taj {=0if xj∗>0,≥0otherwise,j=1,…,n.\nabla f(x^*)_j+\tilde y^Ta_j\ \begin{cases}=0&\text{if } x^*_j>0,\\ \ge 0&\text{otherwise,}\end{cases}\qquad j=1,\dots,n.∇f(x∗)j​+y~​Taj​ {=0≥0​if xj∗​>0,otherwise,​j=1,…,n.
  • Lemma 8.7.3. If s1,…,sks_1,\dots,s_ks1​,…,sk​ lie on the boundary of the ball BBB with center s∗s^*s∗, then BBB is the unique smallest enclosing ball of {s1,…,sk}\{s_1,\dots,s_k\}{s1​,…,sk​} iff for every u∈Rdu\in\mathbb{R}^du∈Rd some jjj has uT(sj−s∗)≤0u^T(s_j-s^*)\le 0uT(sj​−s∗)≤0.

Significance

The result. Theorem 8.7.4 gives existence and uniqueness of the smallest enclosing ball together with an explicit certificate: the center is a convex combination Qx∗Qx^*Qx∗ of the input points, the squared radius is the negated optimum value, and the points pjp_jpj​ with xj∗>0x^*_j>0xj∗​>0 lie on the boundary. It reduces the geometric problem to a convex quadratic program, for which interior-point and simplex-type solvers exist, and it is the basis of the combinatorial characterization "the center lies in the convex hull of the boundary points" used by Welzl-type algorithms. Proposition 8.7.2 is the KKT theorem for equational-form convex programs; it holds without any constraint qualification because the constraints are linear.

Formalizing it. All results here are classical and proved in the book; none is open. The mission produces machine-checked statements and, when solved, proofs of: the first-order optimality criterion for convex functions on convex sets in Rn\mathbb{R}^nRn; the equational-form KKT theorem derived from LP duality; the boundary characterization of unique smallest enclosing balls; and existence and uniqueness of the smallest enclosing ball in every dimension. Mathlib has first-order necessary conditions at local minima and general convexity theory, but no KKT theorem for linearly constrained convex programs in this form and no smallest-enclosing-ball theory.

Difficulty

Existence of an optimum and convexity of fff are routine. For the KKT conditions, the necessary direction needs multipliers, which do not come from calculus alone: the obvious Lagrange-multiplier argument handles only equality constraints and says nothing about the sign pattern forced by x≥0x\ge 0x≥0. For the goal, a solver must connect three layers — the gradient of a quadratic form in matrix notation, the multiplier conditions, and the Euclidean geometry of distances to p∗p^*p∗ — and uniqueness of the ball does not follow from uniqueness of the optimizer x∗x^*x∗, which in general is not unique (repeated or cospherical points). The statement quantifies over all optimal x∗x^*x∗ and asserts that they all yield the same center.

Formalization scope

  • Vectors of Rn\mathbb{R}^nRn are Fin n → ℝ, so the book's indices 1,…,n1,\dots,n1,…,n become 0,…,n−10,\dots,n-10,…,n−1. Points of Rd\mathbb{R}^dRd are EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin d), so ∥⋅∥\|\cdot\|∥⋅∥ and pTqp^TqpTq are Euclidean. The matrix QQQ is Matrix (Fin d) (Fin n) ℝ.
  • Optimality is stated against every feasible point; no infimum or supremum is taken. ∇f(x∗)(x−x∗)\nabla f(x^*)(x-x^*)∇f(x∗)(x−x∗) is the Fréchet derivative applied to x−x∗x-x^*x−x∗, and ∇f(x∗)j\nabla f(x^*)_j∇f(x∗)j​ its value on the jjjth unit vector. "Continuous partial derivatives" is ContDiff ℝ 1 f. Convexity is ConvexOn ℝ Set.univ f.
  • Balls are closed. The squared radius −f(x∗)-f(x^*)−f(x∗) is expressed by asserting −f(x∗)≥0-f(x^*)\ge 0−f(x∗)≥0 and taking the radius −f(x∗)\sqrt{-f(x^*)}−f(x∗)​. "Unique ball of smallest radius" is written out as minimality of the radius among all enclosing closed balls plus equality of centers for every enclosing ball of radius at most the optimum; merely stating that the ball encloses PPP would not be the theorem.
  • The goal assumes n≥1n\ge 1n≥1 (for n=0n=0n=0 the feasible set is empty). In Fact 8.7.1 the minimizer x∗x^*x∗ is assumed to lie in CCC, as "minimizes fff over CCC" presupposes. In Lemma 8.7.3 the radius is nonnegative and each sjs_jsj​ is at distance exactly rrr from s∗s^*s∗.
  • Needed infrastructure: gradients of quadratic forms on Fin n → ℝ, LP duality for the pair (maximize cTxc^TxcTx, Ax=bAx=bAx=b, x≥0x\ge0x≥0) / (minimize bTyb^TybTy, ATy≥cA^Ty\ge cATy≥c), compactness of the standard simplex, and elementary Euclidean geometry. The first-order criterion and the KKT theorem are reusable beyond this mission; proofs through any route are welcome.

Selected references

  • J. Matoušek and B. Gärtner, Understanding and Using Linear Programming, Springer Universitext, 2007, §8.7, pp. 184–191. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-30717-4
  • S. Boyd and L. Vandenberghe, Convex Optimization, Cambridge University Press, 2004. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511804441
  • N. Megiddo, Linear-time algorithms for linear programming in R3\mathbb{R}^3R3 and related problems, SIAM J. Comput. 12(4), 1983. https://doi.org/10.1137/0212052
  • E. Welzl, Smallest enclosing disks (balls and ellipsoids), in New Results and New Trends in Computer Science, LNCS 555, Springer, 1991. https://doi.org/10.1007/BFb0038202
  • J. J. Sylvester, A question in the geometry of situation, Quarterly Journal of Pure and Applied Mathematics 1, 1857.
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