Motivation
In a stochastic multi-armed bandit a player repeatedly chooses one of K arms and receives a random reward drawn from that arm's unknown distribution; the aim is to pull suboptimal arms as rarely as possible. Lai and Robbins (1985) and, for general models, Burnetas and Katehakis (1996) showed that any reasonable strategy must pull a suboptimal arm a at least (1+o(1))logT/Kinf(νa,μ⋆) times in T rounds, where Kinf is a minimal Kullback–Leibler divergence defined below. A strategy whose expected number of pulls matches this constant is asymptotically optimal.
For rewards in [0,1], classical index policies such as UCB (Auer, Cesa-Bianchi and Fischer, 2002) achieve O(logT) pulls but with a constant governed by the gap of the means, not by Kinf. Cappé, Garivier, Maillard, Munos and Stoltz, Kullback–Leibler upper confidence bounds for optimal sequential allocation, Ann. Statist. 41(3), 2013 (arXiv:1210.1136v4), introduce the KL-UCB family of index policies and prove finite-time bounds whose leading term is the Lai–Robbins/Burnetas–Katehakis constant. This mission formalizes their result for empirical KL-UCB (Algorithm 3, Theorem 2), which is asymptotically optimal in the nonparametric model of finitely supported distributions on [0,1]. A companion mission covers kl-UCB in one-parameter exponential families (Theorem 1).
Timeline: Lai and Robbins (1985), lower bound for parametric families; Burnetas and Katehakis (1996), lower bound and asymptotically optimal policies for general models; Honda and Takemura (2010, 2011), the DMED algorithm, asymptotically optimal for finitely supported and bounded rewards; Cappé et al. (2013), the first index policy with a non-asymptotic bound whose leading term is optimal in this model.
Setting
A bandit has K≥2 arms with reward distributions ν1,…,νK in a known model F: the set of probability distributions over [0,1] with finite support. Write E(ν)=∫xdν(x), μa=E(νa) and μ⋆=maxaμa; arm a is suboptimal if μa<μ⋆. At each round t≥1 the player picks an arm At based on past observations and observes a reward drawn from νAt. Na(T)=∑t=1TI{At=a} is the number of pulls of arm a up to round T.
Equivalently, each arm has a reward stack Xa,1,Xa,2,… of i.i.d. draws from νa, all stacks independent, and the n-th pull of arm a returns Xa,n. The empirical distribution of the first n rewards is ν^a,n=n1∑k=1nδXa,k, and ν^a(t)=ν^a,Na(t).
The minimal divergence is
Kinf(ν,μ)=inf{KL(ν,ν′):ν′∈F, E(ν′)>μ}∈[0,+∞],
the smallest Kullback–Leibler divergence from ν to a distribution of the model whose mean exceeds μ.
Empirical KL-UCB (Algorithm 3) pulls each arm once, then for t=K,K+1,… pulls an arm maximizing
Ua(t)=sup{E(ν):ν∈M1(Supp(ν^a(t))∪{1}), KL(ν^a(t),ν)≤Na(t)f(t)},
where M1(A) is the set of probability distributions carried by A and f(t)=logt+loglogt. The added point 1 is essential: without it the index is the empirical-likelihood bound, which equals the empirical mean when every observation is 0.
Formalization targets
Goal: Theorem 2 (pp. 15–16)
Assume μa>0 for all arms and μ⋆<1. There is a constant M(νa,μ⋆)>0 depending only on νa and μ⋆ such that, for every suboptimal arm a and all T≥3,
E[Na(T)]≤Kinf(νa,μ⋆)logT+(μ⋆)436(logT)4/5loglogT+((μ⋆)472+(1−μ⋆)Kinf(νa,μ⋆)22μ⋆)(logT)4/5+2(μ⋆)2(1−μ⋆)2M(νa,μ⋆)(logT)2/5+Kinf(νa,μ⋆)loglogT+(1−μ⋆)Kinf(νa,μ⋆)22μ⋆+4.
The constants are the paper's. M is the one quantity the main text does not give; it is existentially quantified, before the bandit, so it may depend on nothing but (νa,μ⋆).
Milestones
- (7), p. 9: the sets Cμ,γ={ν:∃ν′∈F, E(ν′)>μ, KL(ν,ν′)≤γ} satisfy Cμ,γ⊆{ν:Kinf(ν,μ)≤γ}.
- (5), p. 9: the decomposition {At+1=a}⊆{μ†≥Ua⋆(t)}∪{μ†<Ua(t), At+1=a}.
- The display after (7), p. 9: E[Na(T)]≤1+∑t=KT−1P{μ†≥Ua⋆(t)}+∑t=KT−1P{ν^a,Na(t)∈Cμ†,f(t)/Na(t), At+1=a}.
- (8), p. 10: the second sum is at most ∑n=1T−KP{ν^a,n∈Cμ†,f(T)/n}.
- (9)–(10), p. 10: E[Na(T)]≤f(T)/Kinf(νa,μ⋆)+∑n>n0P{ν^a,n∈Cμ†,f(T)/n}+∑tP{μ†≥Ua⋆(t)}+2 with n0=⌈f(T)/Kinf(νa,μ⋆)⌉.
- p. 15: the supremum defining Ua(t) over F equals the supremum over M1(Supp(ν^a(t))∪{1}).
- Implicit in Theorem 2: 0<Kinf(ν,μ)<∞ for ν∈F and E(ν)<μ<1.
- Proposition 1, p. 20: for n i.i.d. observations from any ν0 on [0,1] with E(ν0)∈(0,1) and every ε>0,
P{U(ν^n,ε)≤E(ν0)}≤P{Kinf(ν^n,E(ν0))≥ε}≤e(n+2)exp(−nε).
Significance
Theorem 2 gives a finite-time bound whose leading term, logT/Kinf(νa,μ⋆), equals the Burnetas–Katehakis lower bound for the model F. Hence empirical KL-UCB is asymptotically optimal among all strategies for finitely supported rewards in [0,1], and the regret ∑a(μ⋆−μa)E[Na(T)] inherits the optimal constant. Since Kinf(νa,μ⋆) is at least the Bernoulli divergence of the means, and usually larger, the bound improves on kl-UCB and UCB for the same rewards. Proposition 1 is a non-asymptotic coverage bound for the empirical-likelihood upper confidence bound with the point 1 added, valid for every law on [0,1], not only finitely supported ones.
The proofs of Theorem 2 and Proposition 1 are in the paper's supplemental article (Appendix B), not in the main text; no machine-checked proof of either exists. The mission produces formal statements of the theorem and of the proof skeleton (5)–(10) that the paper shares with Theorem 1, and of the two facts about Kinf that the bound needs. A formal proof would supply an explicit M(νa,μ⋆), which the paper defines only inside the supplement.
Difficulty
The skeleton (5)–(10) is elementary bookkeeping; the difficulty lies in the two sums it leaves, both of which must be shown to be o(logT) with explicit constants. The second, ∑nP{ν^a,n∈Cμ†,f(T)/n}, needs a deviation estimate for the empirical Kinf of a suboptimal arm that is precise enough to keep the leading constant 1/Kinf(νa,μ⋆): a bound that only controls the deviation of the empirical mean loses it, since Kinf depends on the whole distribution. The first, ∑tP{μ†≥Ua⋆(t)}, concerns the optimal arm after a random number of pulls Na⋆(t), which the algorithm itself determines, so fixed-sample bounds such as Proposition 1 do not apply directly. Both need regularity of Kinf as a function of a distribution in an infinite-dimensional model, where none of the closed forms of the exponential-family case is available.
Formalization scope
Arms are Fin K, and arm a of the paper is index a−1. The bandit is the platform's stack-of-rewards model RegretBandits.Stochastic.IsStochasticBandit: Xa,k (indexed from 0) are independent, identically distributed within each arm, with mean μa. Pull counts and μ⋆ are the platform's pullCount and bestMean. Added to the page, and disclosed in each statement: every reward lies in [0,1] pathwise (a representation of "νa is carried by [0,1]"), every arm choice is measurable, and in the goal the strategy is non-anticipating (At+1 is measurable with respect to the arms and rewards of rounds 1,…,t). A run of Algorithm 3 is a pathwise predicate: rounds 1,…,K pull distinct arms, and every later round pulls a maximizer of U⋅(t), with ties broken by any rule. KL is Mathlib's InformationTheory.klDiv in [0,+∞], with the empirical distribution as first argument. Kinf is kept in [0,+∞] and converted to a real number only in the final bounds, where it is finite and positive. Probabilities of events whose measurability is not asserted are outer probabilities. The page's ∑n≥n0+1 in (10) is stated as the finite sum over n0<n≤T−K that (8) produces. The probability space of Theorem 2 lies in Type.
Trivializing formalizations are ruled out. The index is a supremum over a set that is nonempty (it contains E(ν^a(t))) and bounded above, so it is never Lean's junk value. Kinf and Cμ,γ range over F, not over all measures. The run predicate has both the initialization and the argmax clause. M is quantified before the bandit and the horizon.
Reusable beyond this mission: Kinf for F, the empirical-likelihood bound U of (15), and Proposition 1, a concentration inequality for empirical Kinf that applies to any bounded i.i.d. sample. Proofs of any milestone are welcome, as are proofs of the skeleton (5)–(10) that also apply to the companion kl-UCB mission.
Selected references
- O. Cappé, A. Garivier, O.-A. Maillard, R. Munos, G. Stoltz, Kullback–Leibler upper confidence bounds for optimal sequential allocation, Ann. Statist. 41(3):1516–1541, 2013. arXiv:1210.1136v4, doi:10.1214/13-AOS1119; supplement doi:10.1214/13-AOS1119SUPP.
- T. L. Lai, H. Robbins, Asymptotically efficient adaptive allocation rules, Adv. Appl. Math. 6(1):4–22, 1985. doi:10.1016/0196-8858(85)90002-8
- A. N. Burnetas, M. N. Katehakis, Optimal adaptive policies for sequential allocation problems, Adv. Appl. Math. 17(2):122–142, 1996. doi:10.1006/aama.1996.0007
- J. Honda, A. Takemura, An asymptotically optimal bandit algorithm for bounded support models, COLT 2010, 67–79.
- P. Auer, N. Cesa-Bianchi, P. Fischer, Finite-time analysis of the multiarmed bandit problem, Mach. Learn. 47:235–256, 2002. doi:10.1023/A:1013689704352