Motivation
The number of successes in many rare trials is approximately Poisson. For independent trials the
quality of that approximation was quantified by Le Cam in 1960: if X1,…,Xn are independent
Bernoulli variables with P(Xi=1)=pi, W=∑iXi and λ=∑ipi, the total variation
distance between the law of W and the Poisson law with mean λ is bounded by a constant
multiple of ∑ipi2, and by a constant multiple of λ−1∑ipi2 when λ≥1.
Many applications have dependent trials: occurrences of a pattern in a sequence, exceedances of a
high level by a stationary process, failures in a system with local interactions. L. H. Y. Chen's
1975 paper extended Charles Stein's method of normal approximation to the Poisson case and obtained
explicit bounds for dependent trials. The approach became known as the Stein–Chen method, and is
now the standard tool for Poisson approximation of dependent counts.
Timeline.
- 1960. Le Cam proves the independent-trial bounds (0.1)–(0.3) of Chen's introduction.
- 1964. Kerstan extends them to independent nonnegative integer variables and improves the constant
in (0.3).
- 1970. Stein introduces his method of normal approximation for dependent variables.
- 1975. Chen (Ann. Probab. 3) adapts it to Poisson approximation. He proves Theorems 4.1–4.4 for
sequences satisfying Ibragimov's mixing condition, the m-dependent case, and a second-order expansion
for independent trials.
This mission formalizes the order-λ−1 bound of that paper, Theorem 4.2.
Setting
Let (Ω,F,P) be a probability space and let X1,…,Xn be Bernoulli trials:
random variables with values in {0,1} and pi=P(Xi=1). Following the paper, set Xi≡0 for
i≤0 and i≥n+1. Put
W=i=1∑nXi,λ=i=1∑npi.
For a bounded real function h on the nonnegative integers, the Poisson expectation is
Pλh=e−λk=0∑∞h(k)k!λk,
the mean of h under the Poisson law with parameter λ. The quantity of interest is
∣Eh(W)−Pλh∣ for all h with ∣h∣≤1. Its supremum over such h is twice the total
variation distance between the law of W and the Poisson law.
Dependence is measured by Ibragimov's mixing condition (4.1). Let
Ma,b=σ(Xi:a≤i≤b). There must be a non-increasing sequence φ(k)↓0
such that for all j,k≥1 and every event B∈Mj+k,∞,
∣P(B∣M1j)−P(B)∣≤φ(k)almost surely.
A sequence is m-dependent when (X1,…,Xr) and (Xr+k,…) are independent for all
k>m. It then satisfies (4.1) with φ(k)=0 for k>m.
The proof works with the partial sums V(i)=∑∣k−i∣>mXk,
V(i,j)=∑∣k−i∣>m,∣k−j∣>mXk, Yij=V(i)+∑k=i−mjXk and
Yij′=V(i)+∑k=i−m,k=ijXk. It also uses the Stein solution Sλh, the
solution for w≥1 of wf(w)−λf(w+1)=h(w)−Pλh.
Formalization targets
Goal: Theorem 4.2, (4.13)
For every m=0,1,2,… and every h with ∣h∣≤1,
∣Eh(W)−Pλh∣≤2λ−1[8m+5+4(nφ(m+1))1/2][Var(W)−λ+2(2m+1)i=1∑npi2]+32[6m+3+(nφ(m+1))1/2]nφ(m+1).
The bound involves only the law of W through Var(W), the success probabilities, the
window m and the mixing rate. The window m is free, so the statement covers every trade-off between
local dependence and mixing.
Consequences (companion items)
- Theorem 4.3, (4.21). For m-dependent trials,
∣Eh(W)−Pλh∣≤2(8m+5)λ−1[∑∑i=jCov(Xi,Xj)+(4m+1)∑pi2].
- Corollary 4.1, (4.23). For independent trials, ∣Eh(W)−Pλh∣≤10λ−1∑pi2.
This improves Le Cam's (0.3).
- Theorem 4.4. For identically distributed trials with φ(m)=e−αm, there are bounds
(4.24) and (4.25) whose constants depend only on α.
Milestones
The milestones follow the paper's proof:
- the basic identity (2.2), the Stein solution (2.5) and the expansion (2.6);
- the bounds on Sλh: Lemmas 3.1–3.3, (3.6) and Lemma 3.5;
- the mixing inequalities, Lemmas 4.1–4.3 and 4.6;
- the variance bound, Lemma 4.4;
- the four displays (4.14) and (4.16)–(4.19) of the proof of Theorem 4.2;
- Cauchy–Schwarz (4.10) and Lemma 4.5.
Significance
Theorem 4.2 gives an error of order λ−1 times the excess variance
Var(W)−λ+O(m∑pi2), plus a mixing remainder. When the trials are nearly
uncorrelated, Var(W)≈λ and the bound is small even though λ is
large. This is the regime where the companion Theorem 4.1, which carries a factor
min(λ−1/2,1), is weaker. The independent case recovers Le Cam's order
λ−1∑pi2 with constant 10. The m-dependent case gives explicit Poisson limit theorems
for scan statistics and pattern counts.
All results of the paper are proved there, and the proofs are elementary apart from the measure theory
of Lemma 4.1. To our knowledge none of them has a machine-checked proof. Mathlib has the Poisson
distribution and conditional expectation, but no Stein–Chen bound and no mixing inequality of
Ibragimov's type. A formal proof would give the first checked quantitative Poisson approximation for
dependent trials. It would also give reusable covariance inequalities for φ-mixing sequences
(Lemmas 4.2 and 4.3).
Difficulty
Most of the work is bookkeeping, and it is heavy. Identity (2.2) needs a telescoping over windows
[i−m,j] whose ends can fall outside [1,n]. (4.15)–(4.18) need ∣Yi,j−1′+1−λ∣ to be
compared with ∣V(i,j)−EV(i,j)∣ with explicit constants.
The genuinely probabilistic step is the decoupling of Lemma 4.2. Condition (4.1) controls conditional
probabilities of events. Lemma 4.2 needs a bound on conditional expectations of functions of a whole
random vector. Passing from one to the other requires a regular conditional distribution that is
uniformly close to the unconditional law on a set of full measure (Lemma 4.1). The naive route,
applying (4.1) to each level set of a simple function, loses a factor that grows with the number of
levels and does not give the constant 2∥f∥.
The bound (4.16) applies Lemma 4.4 to a subsequence of the trials. This uses the fact that dropping
variables preserves (4.1) with the same φ, because φ is non-increasing.
Formalization scope
- Trials. The trials are a map X:N→Ω→N that is measurable, vanishes at
index 0 and above n, and is at most 1 almost surely. The constant padding adds nothing to any
σ-algebra, so (4.1), m-dependence and independence of the padded sequence are those of
X1,…,Xn.
- Probabilities and moments. pi is defined as P(Xi=1), not taken as a parameter.
Var and Cov are Mathlib's. All integrands are almost surely bounded,
so no integrability hypotheses are needed.
- Norms. Sup norms are replaced by bounds M with ∣h∣≤M. ∥Sλh∥ ranges over
w≥1.
- Mixing condition. In (4.1) the conditional probability is the conditional expectation of the
indicator, and lags are k≥1.
- Added hypotheses. The §3 lemmas and (2.6), (4.14) assume λ>0, because they divide by
λ. The goal and the companions do not assume it: at λ=0 all pi vanish, W=0
almost surely, and both sides are 0 under Lean's convention 0−1=0.
- Lemmas 4.2 and 4.3. They are stated for an arbitrary measurable real sequence satisfying (4.1),
as on the page. The independent copy Z′ is expressed through the law of Z.
- Theorem 4.4. Its constants are quantified before the probability space, n and the trials. This
is what "depend only on α" means.
A trivializing formalization is ruled out. Measurability of the trials is part of the definition,
because otherwise conditional expectations in (4.1) collapse to 0. The goal mentions only W,
λ, pi, Var(W), φ, m and h. It does not mention Sλh
or any milestone quantity.
A complete development needs the Stein solution and its bounds, a Bernoulli-sum calculus over integer
windows, regular conditional distributions on standard Borel spaces, and the mixing covariance
inequalities. The last two are reusable beyond this mission. Contributions to any milestone are
welcome, as are alternative proofs of Lemma 4.2 through Mathlib's condDistrib.
Selected references
- L. H. Y. Chen, Poisson approximation for dependent trials, Annals of Probability 3(3):534–545,
1975. https://doi.org/10.1214/aop/1176996359
- L. Le Cam, An approximation theorem for the Poisson binomial distribution, Pacific Journal of
Mathematics 10(4):1181–1197, 1960. https://doi.org/10.2140/pjm.1960.10.1181
- C. Stein, A bound for the error in the normal approximation to the distribution of a sum of
dependent random variables, Proc. Sixth Berkeley Symp. Math. Statist. Probab. 2:583–602, 1972.
https://projecteuclid.org/euclid.bsmsp/1200514239
- I. A. Ibragimov, Some limit theorems for stationary processes, Theory of Probability and its
Applications 7(4):349–382, 1962. https://doi.org/10.1137/1107036
- A. D. Barbour, L. Holst, S. Janson, Poisson Approximation, Oxford University Press, 1992.
ISBN 978-0-19-852235-9