Motivation
Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) estimates an expectation ∫fdπ by the average of f along a Markov chain whose invariant distribution is π. Many chains share the same π: every Metropolis–Hastings acceptance rule that satisfies detailed balance, every mixture of such kernels, every choice of proposal. Practitioners need a criterion for preferring one of them. The standard yardstick is the asymptotic variance of the ergodic average, the constant in the Markov chain central limit theorem. A smaller asymptotic variance means fewer iterations for the same Monte Carlo error.
Peskun (1973) compared chains on a finite state space through a partial order on transition matrices: if one reversible matrix moves off the diagonal at least as much as another, entry by entry, its asymptotic variances are no larger, for every function. That result justifies the Metropolis–Hastings acceptance probability as the best possible among reversible acceptance rules. It covers only finite state spaces, while MCMC is used almost exclusively on continuous or mixed ones.
Tierney (1998) extended Peskun's theorem to general state spaces, using the spectral approach of Kipnis and Varadhan (1986) for reversible chains. The theorem is the one usually cited when an MCMC paper argues that one sampler dominates another; Mira (2001) surveys orderings built on it.
Setting
Let (E,E) be a measurable space in which singletons are measurable, and let π be a probability measure on E. A Markov kernel H assigns to each x∈E a probability measure H(x,⋅), measurably in x. It acts on functions by (Hf)(x)=∫f(y)H(x,dy). The measure π is invariant for H if ∫H(x,A)π(dx)=π(A) for every A∈E. The kernel H is reversible with respect to π (satisfies detailed balance) if
π(dx)H(x,dy)=π(dy)H(y,dx),
that is, ∫AH(x,B)π(dx)=∫BH(x,A)π(dx) for all A,B∈E. Reversibility implies invariance.
Write ⟨f,g⟩=∫fgdπ, L2(π) for the square-integrable functions and L02(π)={g∈L2(π):∫gdπ=0}.
Off-diagonal domination. For kernels P1,P2, P1⪰P2 (OffDiagDominates π P₁ P₂) if for π-almost every x,
P1(x,A∖{x})≥P2(x,A∖{x})for all A∈E.
So from almost every state P1 moves to every region at least as readily as P2, and the kernels differ only in the probability of staying put.
The chain and its asymptotic variance. For a Markov kernel H, let X0,X1,… be the Markov chain with initial distribution π and transition kernel H (chainMeasure π H, a measure on paths N→E). For f∈L02(π) put Sn=∑i=1nf(Xi) (pathSum f n) and
v(f,H)=n→∞limn1VarH(Sn)∈[0,∞].
The lag inner products are ⟨f,Hkf⟩=∫f(x)∫f(y)Hk(x,dy)π(dx) (lagInner π H f k), and for 0≤λ<1 the regularized variance is vλ(f,H)=⟨f,f⟩+2∑k≥1λk⟨f,Hkf⟩ (vLam π H f lam).
Formalization targets
Goal: Theorem 4 (p. 5)
Let P1,P2 be Markov kernels reversible with respect to π, f∈L02(π), and P1⪰P2. Then both asymptotic variances exist in [0,∞] and
v(f,P1)≤v(f,P2).
No rate, constant or regularity of the kernels is fixed. The statement is the ordering itself, valid for every reversible pair and every f∈L02(π).
Milestones, in attack order
- Lemma 3 (p. 5): if P1,P2 have invariant distribution π and P1⪰P2, then P2−P1 is a positive operator on L2(π):
∬f(x)f(y)(P2(x,dy)−P1(x,dy))π(dx)≥0(f∈L2(π)).
- A reversible kernel is a self-adjoint contraction on L02(π) (p. 5): ⟨Hf,g⟩=⟨f,Hg⟩ and ∥Hf∥≤∥f∥.
- Finite-n variance identity (p. 5), for n≥1:
n1VarH(Sn)=⟨f,f⟩+2i=1∑nnn−i⟨f,Hif⟩.
- Existence of v(f,H) in [0,∞] (p. 6).
- vλ(f,H)→v(f,H) as λ↑1, finite or infinite (p. 6).
- vλ(f,P1)≤vλ(f,P2) for 0≤λ<1 when P1⪰P2 (p. 6).
Significance
The result. Theorem 4 turns a pointwise, one-step comparison of kernels, which is easy to check, into a comparison of the quantity that governs Monte Carlo error. Its main consequence, drawn in §3 of the paper, is that the Metropolis–Hastings acceptance probability αMH(x,y)=min{1,r(y,x)} gives the maximal kernel in the off-diagonal order among reversible Metropolis–Hastings kernels with a given proposal. It is therefore optimal in asymptotic variance, on arbitrary state spaces. Proposition 5 of the same paper (a separate mission in this series) combines with it to show that a single Metropolis–Hastings kernel built on a mixture proposal beats the mixture of the component kernels. Later orderings of samplers (Mira 2001; Andrieu and Livingstone 2021) take this theorem as their base case.
Formalizing it. The theorem has been proved since 1998. No machine-checked version exists for general state spaces, and none of its milestones is on the platform. The formalization produces reusable infrastructure: the asymptotic variance of a stationary chain as an extended-real limit on Mathlib's Ionescu–Tulcea path measure, the L2 facts for reversible kernels (self-adjointness, contraction, the covariance formula for path sums), and the positivity of P2−P1 under off-diagonal domination. Each of these is used again in any formal treatment of MCMC efficiency or the Markov chain central limit theorem.
Difficulty
The direct approach compares the two finite-n variances. This fails, and not just technically: the paper exhibits two doubly stochastic, symmetric 4×4 matrices with P1⪰P2 for which the variance of f(X0)+f(X1)+f(X2) is 15.4 under P1 and 14.8 under P2 (p. 7). Off-diagonal domination orders the lag-one covariances, but higher-order correlations "need not be ordered" (p. 5). The ordering appears only in the limit, and only for reversible kernels. The comparison must pass through an object that sees all lags at once and is monotone along the segment P1+β(P2−P1), and that object involves resolvents of operators on L02(π). The limit may be infinite, so every comparison must be made in [0,∞]. Mathlib has neither the spectral measure of a self-adjoint operator nor the Kipnis–Varadhan theory.
Formalization scope
The state space is {E : Type*} [MeasurableSpace E] with [MeasurableSingletonClass E] wherever off-diagonal domination appears. This is an assumption the paper leaves implicit: A∖{x} must be an event. π is a probability measure and all kernels are Markov kernels. Reversibility is Mathlib's Kernel.IsReversible, invariance is Kernel.Invariant. The function f is measurable with MemLp f 2 π and, for L02, ∫ f ∂π = 0; measurability picks a representative of the L2 class and costs nothing. The chain is Kernel.trajMeasure started from π. The sum runs over X1,…,Xn, not X0. Variances are Mathlib's evariance in [0,∞], and v(f,H) is a Tendsto limit in ℝ≥0∞, so an infinite asymptotic variance is represented. The goal asserts the existence of both limits rather than assuming it, so it cannot hold vacuously. Neither it nor any milestone specializes to finite E, to Metropolis–Hastings kernels, or to a chain started from a point. Lemma 3 assumes invariance only, and the theorem requires reversibility, as printed.
Two statements depart in form from the page. The finite-n variance identity and vλ are written through the moments ⟨f,Hkf⟩ (a Neumann series) instead of through the spectral measure ef,H and the resolvent (I−λH)−1. The two forms agree for a self-adjoint contraction, and this is noted in each item. The paper's appeal to the spectral theorem and to Kipnis and Varadhan (1986) is not restated as an item: a complete development needs it, or an equivalent argument, as part of the proof. Proofs of any milestone, and reusable lemmas on the path measure (stationarity and the marginal laws of (Xi,Xj)), are welcome.
Selected references
- L. Tierney, A Note on Metropolis–Hastings Kernels for General State Spaces, Ann. Appl. Probab. 8(1), 1–9, 1998. https://doi.org/10.1214/aoap/1027961031
- P. H. Peskun, Optimum Monte-Carlo sampling using Markov chains, Biometrika 60(3), 607–612, 1973. https://doi.org/10.1093/biomet/60.3.607
- C. Kipnis and S. R. S. Varadhan, Central limit theorem for additive functionals of reversible Markov processes and applications to simple exclusions, Comm. Math. Phys. 104, 1–19, 1986. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01210789
- A. Mira, Ordering and improving the performance of Monte Carlo Markov chains, Statist. Sci. 16(4), 340–350, 2001. https://doi.org/10.1214/ss/1015346318
- C. Andrieu and S. Livingstone, Peskun–Tierney ordering for Markovian Monte Carlo: beyond the reversible scenario, Ann. Statist. 49(4), 1958–1981, 2021. https://doi.org/10.1214/20-AOS2008