Motivation
Many statistical parameters are defined implicitly, as the root θ∗ of an estimating equation E[h(W,θ∗)]=0: a mean, a quantile, a regression coefficient, the minimizer of an expected loss. Owen's empirical likelihood builds confidence regions for such parameters by asking how far the empirical distribution of the data must be reweighted before the equation holds, and the profile of that distance has a chi-squared limit (Owen, Empirical Likelihood, 2001).
Blanchet, Kang and Murthy replace reweighting by transport: they measure how much the data must be moved, in the sense of optimal transport, before the equation holds. The resulting Robust Wasserstein Profile (RWP) function plays the role of the empirical-likelihood profile, and its value at the true parameter is exactly the smallest radius of a Wasserstein ball around the data that contains a distribution satisfying the estimating equation. Its asymptotic law is therefore what is needed to choose the radius of Wasserstein distributionally robust estimators, such as the square-root LASSO and regularized logistic regression, in a data-driven way (arXiv:1610.05627, §§1, 3, 4). This mission formalizes the paper's main limit theorem, Theorem 3.
Setting
Let c:Rm×Rm→[0,∞] be a cost. The optimal transport cost between probability laws P and Q on Rm is
Dc(P,Q)=inf{Eπ[c(U,W)]:πU=P, πW=Q},
the infimum over all joint laws π of a pair (U,W) with the given marginals (Eq. (7)). In this mission c(u,w)=∥w−u∥qρ with ρ≥1 and q∈(1,∞], and p denotes the conjugate exponent, 1/p+1/q=1.
Let h:Rm×Rl→Rr be an estimating function, and let W,W1,W2,… be i.i.d. random vectors in Rm with E[h(W,θ∗)]=0. With Pn the empirical distribution of W1,…,Wn, the RWP function is
Rn(θ)=inf{Dc(P,Pn):EP[h(W,θ)]=0}.(16)
Write Dwh(w,θ∗) for the r×m Jacobian of w↦h(w,θ∗), and ∥ζTDwh(w,θ∗)∥p for the ℓp norm of the row vector ζTDwh(w,θ∗)∈Rm, ζ∈Rr. The assumptions are:
- A1) c(u,w)=∥u−w∥qρ, ρ≥1;
- A2) E[h(W,θ∗)]=0 and E∥h(W,θ∗)∥22<∞;
- A3) h(⋅,θ∗) is continuously differentiable;
- A4) for every ζ=0, P(∥ζTDwh(W,θ∗)∥p>0)>0.
A sequence Xn is asymptotically stochastically bounded by X, written Xn≲DX, if limsupnE[f(Xn)]≤E[f(X)] for every continuous, bounded, non-decreasing f.
Formalization targets
Goal: Theorem 3 (p. 15)
Let H∼N(0,E[h(W,θ∗)h(W,θ∗)T]). Under A1)–A4),
nρ/2Rn(θ∗;ρ)≲DRˉ(ρ),
where for ρ>1
Rˉ(ρ)=ζ∈Rrmax{ρζTH−(ρ−1)E∥ζTDwh(W,θ∗)∥pρ/(ρ−1)},
and for ρ=1
Rˉ(1)=ζ: P(∥ζTDwh(W,θ∗)∥p>1)=0maxζTH.
The formal goal also asserts that Rn(θ∗) is finite and measurable and that both maxima are attained; these are facts the paper's statement presupposes.
Milestones (proof of Theorem 3, App. A.3)
- Proposition 3 (p. 13): strong duality, Rn(θ)=supλ{−n1∑isupu{λTh(u,θ)−c(u,Wi)}} when 0∈intconvh(Rm,θ).
- (31)–(32) (p. 32): nρ/2Rn(θ∗)=supζ{−ζTHn−Mn(ζ)}, with Hn=n−1/2∑ih(Wi,θ∗) and the random penalty Mn.
- Lemma 2 (p. 32): the supremum in (31) localizes to a compact set of ζ with high probability.
- (42) (p. 36): maxΔ{vTΔ−∥Δ∥qρ}=∥v∥pρ/(ρ−1)(1/ρ)1/(ρ−1)(1−1/ρ).
- Lemma 3 (p. 34): a uniform law of large numbers for the localized penalty.
Significance
Theorem 3 gives the rate n−ρ/2 at which the RWP function at the true parameter vanishes and an explicit random variable bounding its rescaled limit. The (1−α)-quantile ηα of Rˉ(ρ) yields a radius δ=n−ρ/2ηα for which the Wasserstein ball around Pn contains, with asymptotic probability at least 1−α, a law satisfying the estimating equation at θ∗ (§3.1, (19)); this is the paper's prescription for the regularization parameter of square-root LASSO and of regularized logistic regression (§4). Example 3 (p. 14) shows the bound is sharp for the mean: nρ/2Rn(θ∗)⇒σWρ∣N(0,1)∣ρ. Matching lower bounds (Propositions 4 and 5) need further assumptions and are not part of this mission.
The result is proved in the paper; no machine-checked version of it, or of any RWP or empirical-likelihood limit theorem, is known to exist. A formalization would check the duality argument for the problem of moments, the passage from the dual representation to a localized maximization, and the continuous-mapping step, and would produce reusable statements: strong duality for transport-cost moment problems, the closed form of the conjugate of ∥⋅∥qρ, and a uniform law of large numbers over a compact parameter set.
Difficulty
The obvious route is to apply the central limit theorem to Hn and pass to the limit inside the dual representation (31). This fails as stated, for two reasons. First, the supremum in (31) is over all of Rr, and convergence of the objective on compact sets does not control the supremum; Lemma 2 is needed, and it uses A4) through a lower bound on E∥ζˉTDh(W)∥pp that is uniform over the unit sphere. Second, the penalty Mn involves the derivative of h at points Wi+n−1/2Δu that are not localized, with no moment assumption on Dh; the proof must truncate to ∥Wi∥p≤c0 and to a specific near-optimal Δ, and then remove the truncation. The case ρ=1 differs: the inner supremum is 0 or +∞, and the limit becomes a maximization over a constraint set.
Formalization scope
Vectors are Fin k → ℝ; ℓq and ℓp norms are Mathlib's PiLp norms, so q=∞ is allowed, with q∈(1,∞] and p.HolderConjugate q. The samples are a sequence W : ℕ → Ω → (Fin m → ℝ), mutually independent (iIndepFun) and identically distributed with W 0, which plays the role of W; Rn uses W0,…,Wn−1 through the published empiricalDistribution. Distinct samples are not assumed in Theorem 3; Proposition 3 and (31) keep the §3.1 assumption of distinct samples. Transport costs and Rn are [0,∞]-valued lower Lebesgue integrals and infima; Rˉ(ρ) is computed in the extended reals with the moment E∥⋅∥pρ/(ρ−1) in [0,∞]. H's law is multivariateGaussian 0 Cov on EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin r).
The goal is a conjunction: finiteness of Rn(θ∗) for n≥1, its a.e.-measurability, attainment of the maxima in Rˉ(ρ), and the limsup bound. Without the first three, a real-valued formalization could hold for the wrong reason (an infinite Rn converted to 0, a non-measurable integrand integrated to 0, or an unbounded supremum replaced by 0); the conjunction rules this out.
Readings of the page recorded in the items: A1) says q≥1 while (17) and the proof of Lemma 2 use q>1, and q∈(1,∞] is used; Proposition 3 is stated for a cost that is finite everywhere, the setting of §3, because for a cost that is infinite on part of the space the interior condition on h(Rm,θ) does not imply the Slater condition used in App. B; Lemmas 2 and 3 state the standing assumptions A1), A3) and i.i.d. sampling that their statements leave implicit. The localized weak limit (45) is not a milestone: its penalty Mn′ depends on a ζ-dependent near-optimal direction that is not stated precisely enough on the page.
Needed infrastructure: the multivariate central limit theorem (Mathlib has the real-valued one), Hölder duality for PiLp norms, a strong-duality theorem for moment problems (Proposition 7, quoted from Isii and Karlin–Studden), and a uniform law of large numbers. The duality results and the conjugate formula (42) are reusable beyond this mission. Proofs of any milestone, and lemmas that serve them, are welcome.
Selected references
- J. Blanchet, Y. Kang, K. Murthy, Robust Wasserstein Profile Inference and Applications to Machine Learning, J. Appl. Probab. 56(3), 2019; arXiv:1610.05627v4. https://arxiv.org/abs/1610.05627
- A. B. Owen, Empirical Likelihood, Chapman & Hall/CRC, 2001. https://doi.org/10.1201/9781420036152
- J. Blanchet, K. Murthy, Quantifying Distributional Model Risk via Optimal Transport, Math. Oper. Res. 44(2), 2019. https://arxiv.org/abs/1604.01446
- K. Isii, On sharpness of Tchebycheff-type inequalities, Ann. Inst. Statist. Math. 14, 1962. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02868641
- C. Villani, Optimal Transport: Old and New, Springer, 2009. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-71050-9