Motivation
Many queueing systems evolve in continuous time: customers arrive according to a Poisson process, services take exponentially distributed times, and a controller may change the service rate, admit or reject customers, or route them whenever the state changes. Minimizing the long-run average cost of such a system is a standard problem in the control of queues (Lippman 1975; Puterman 1994, Ch. 11; Sennott 1999, Ch. 10). The continuous time model does not fit directly into the discrete time theory of Markov decision chains developed in the earlier chapters of Sennott's book, because time spent in a state now matters and the natural average cost is a ratio of expected cost to expected elapsed time.
This mission formalizes Sections 10.1–10.4 of L. I. Sennott, Stochastic Dynamic Programming and the Control of Queueing Systems (Wiley, 1999): the elementary properties of the exponential distribution, the continuous time Markov decision chain and its average cost, a reduction of the continuous time problem to an auxiliary discrete time Markov decision chain, and the theorem stating that finite state approximating sequences of the auxiliary chain compute optimal average costs and optimal stationary policies of the continuous time chain. The chapter closes with an explicit average cost computation for the M/M/1 queue with service rate control.
Setting
A random variable X has the exponential distribution with rate μ>0 if P(X≤t)=1−e−μt for t≥0. A function r(δ) is o(δ) if r(δ)/δ→0 as δ→0+.
A continuous time Markov decision chain (CTMDC) Ψ has a countable state space S and, for each i∈S, a finite nonempty action set Ai. Choosing a∈Ai in state i incurs an instantaneous cost G(i,a)≥0 and a cost rate g(i,a)≥0 in effect until the next transition. The time until the next transition is exponential with rate ν(i,a)>0, so its mean is τ(i,a)=1/ν(i,a); the next state is j with probability Pij(a), where Pii(a)=0. A policy θ chooses, at each transition, an action (possibly at random) from the history of past states, actions and sojourn times; a stationary policy e chooses e(i) in state i. With Cn the cost and Tn the time of the first n transition periods, the average cost and the minimum average cost are
JθΨ(i)=n→∞limsupEθ[Tn∣X0=i]Eθ[Cn∣X0=i],JΨ(i)=θinfJθΨ(i).
Assumption (CTB) requires constants τ and B with 0<τ<infi,aτ(i,a)≤supi,aτ(i,a)≤B<∞. The auxiliary MDC Δ has the same states and actions, costs C(i,a)=G(i,a)ν(i,a)+g(i,a), and transition probabilities Pij∗(a)=τν(i,a)Pij(a) for j=i, Pii∗(a)=1−τν(i,a). Its average cost JθΔ(i)=limsupnn−1∑t<nEθ[C(Xt,Yt)] and minimum average cost JΔ(i) are those of Chapter 2. Assumption (CTAC) is JΔ(⋅)≤JΨ(⋅).
An approximating sequence (ΔN)N≥N0 for Δ uses finite state spaces SN increasing to S and transition probabilities Pij∗(a;N) on SN converging to Pij∗(a). The (AC) assumptions ask for constants JN and functions rN on SN solving
JN+rN(i)=a∈Aimin{C(i,a)+j∈SN∑Pij∗(a;N)rN(j)},i∈SN, N≥N0,(10.21)
with limsupNrN(i)<∞, liminfNrN(i)≥−Q for a constant Q≥0, and limsupNJN=:J∗<∞, J∗≤JΔ(i).
Formalization targets
Goal: Theorem 10.3.3
Under (CTB), (CTAC) and the (AC) assumptions for an approximating sequence of Δ:
J∗=N→∞limJN exists and JΔ(i)=JΨ(i)=J∗(i∈S),
and every limit point e∗ of a sequence eN of stationary policies realizing the minimum in (10.21) satisfies Je∗Δ=JΔ and Je∗Ψ=JΨ. The goal leaves the chain, the approximating sequence and the constants of (CTB) arbitrary.
Milestones
- Proposition 10.1.2: P(X>x+y∣X>y)=P(X>x) for x,y>0, and P(X≤δ)=μδ+o(δ).
- Proposition 10.1.3: for independent exponentials, P(X1≤δ,X2≤δ)=o(δ), P(X1<X2)=μ1/(μ1+μ2), and min(X1,X2) is exponential with rate μ1+μ2.
- Lemma 10.3.1: if z is bounded below and Zτ(i,e)+z(i)≥G(i,e)+g(i,e)τ(i,e)+∑jPij(e)z(j) for all i (10.15), then JeΨ≤Z.
- Lemma 10.3.2: (Z,w) satisfies Z+w(i)≥C(i,e)+∑jPij∗(e)w(j) (10.20) if and only if (Z,τw) satisfies (10.15).
- Proposition 10.4.1: in the M/M/1 queue with arrival rate λ, holding cost H(i)=Hi and service cost rate c(a), the policy that always serves at rate a>λ has average cost ρac(a)+Hρa/(1−ρa), ρa=λ/a.
Significance
The goal theorem turns the average cost control of a continuous time chain on an infinite state space into a finite computation: solve the optimality equation (10.21) of a finite truncation of the auxiliary chain, let the truncation grow, and read off the optimal average cost and an optimal stationary policy of the original continuous time chain. The auxiliary chain is the book's form of uniformization, and the result is what licenses the numerical study of the M/M/1 service rate control problem in Section 10.4 and of the M/M/K and polling models in Sections 10.5–10.6. Proposition 10.4.1 gives the closed-form benchmark against which the computed optimal policy is compared.
The results are proved in the book, some with details left to the reader (Lemma 10.3.2(ii), Problem 10.10), and the goal rests on Theorem 8.1.1 and Lemma 7.2.1 of the same book. None of them has, as far as a search of Mathlib and the Prove2Me catalogue shows, a machine-checked proof: Mathlib provides the exponential law (ProbabilityTheory.expMeasure) and its distribution function, but not memorylessness or the minimum of independent exponentials, and no continuous time Markov decision model. A formalization would supply these, together with a checked average cost comparison between a continuous time chain and its discrete time auxiliary chain.
Difficulty
The obvious argument compares the two chains policy by policy, but the policy classes differ: a policy for Δ may change action in every time slot, including slots where the state does not change, while a policy for Ψ acts only at transitions and may use the observed sojourn times. Only the stationary policies coincide. The lower bound JΨ≥J∗ therefore cannot be obtained by transferring policies, and it is exactly what Assumption (CTAC) supplies. The upper bound requires passing from the discrete time inequality (10.20) for the limit point e∗ to a bound on a ratio of expected cost to expected time in continuous time, where the denominator depends on the policy; the uniform bounds of (CTB) on the mean sojourn times are what control it. Inside Lemma 10.3.1 the function z is only bounded below, so the telescoping of expectations must be justified without integrability of z from above.
Formalization scope
The state space is a countable type S, actions a type Act, and action sets A i : Finset Act; the CTMDC and MDC structures hold data, and their axioms (nonempty action sets, nonnegative costs, positive rates, stochastic transition rows with Pii(a)=0) are separate predicates. Transition probabilities are ℝ≥0∞-valued; costs, rates and the functions z,w,rN are real. Expected costs, expected times and all average costs are ℝ≥0∞-valued, so +∞ is a legitimate value, and they are compared with real constants in EReal; the limits superior and inferior of (AC) are taken in EReal. The expected cost of n transition periods under a general policy is a recursion over the periods in which the sojourn time is integrated against expMeasure ν(i,a) and the next state is drawn independently from Pi⋅(a); policies are measurable in the past sojourn times. In (10.15) and (10.20) the convergence of the series is part of the inequality. The strict inequality τ<infτ(i,a) of (CTB) is kept strict (as a positive margin); weakening it to ≤ would make Pii∗(a) vanish or turn negative.
The average cost JθΨ is a ratio of expectations, not the expectation of a ratio, and the infimum JΨ ranges over history dependent randomized policies that may use sojourn times; replacing either by a stationary-only class, or dropping (CTAC), gives a different theorem.
A complete development needs: expected rewards of a chain with exponential holding times, the average cost theory of Chapter 8 for the auxiliary chain (Theorem 8.1.1 and Lemma 7.2.1, restated here as needed), and renewal-reward reasoning for Proposition 10.4.1. The exponential-distribution lemmas are reusable beyond this mission and are welcome as independent contributions.
Selected references
- L. I. Sennott, Stochastic Dynamic Programming and the Control of Queueing Systems, Wiley Series in Probability and Statistics, John Wiley & Sons, 1999. https://doi.org/10.1002/9780470317037
- M. L. Puterman, Markov Decision Processes: Discrete Stochastic Dynamic Programming, John Wiley & Sons, 1994. https://doi.org/10.1002/9780470316887
- S. A. Lippman, Applying a new device in the optimization of exponential queuing systems, Operations Research 23(4), 687–710, 1975. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.23.4.687
- D. Gross and C. M. Harris, Fundamentals of Queueing Theory, 3rd ed., John Wiley & Sons, 1998.