The Exact Feasibility of Randomized Solutions of Uncertain Convex Programs: Fully-Supported Problems Attain the Binomial Violation Tail ExactlyResearch Paper
Motivation
Many design problems in control, finance and engineering are convex programs whose constraints depend on an uncertain parameter : a solution must satisfy for every in a possibly infinite set . Enforcing all constraints (robust optimization) is often intractable or overly conservative. The scenario approach draws independent samples of , solves the convex program with those constraints only, and asks how likely it is that the resulting solution violates a fresh constraint. The question matters wherever a randomized design is certified by a confidence statement, from robust control to chance-constrained portfolio selection.
Timeline.
- Calafiore and Campi (Math. Program. 2005; IEEE TAC 2006) introduced the method and bounded the probability that the violation exceeds by a quantity of order . The bound is valid but loose.
- Campi and Garatti (SIAM J. Optim. 2008, this mission's source) proved the bound for every convex problem satisfying existence and uniqueness of solutions. They showed it is attained with equality by every fully-supported problem, so it cannot be improved without further assumptions.
- Later work extended the result to non-unique solutions, constraint removal, and non-convex decisions (Campi and Garatti, Introduction to the Scenario Approach, SIAM 2018).
Setting
Let be a probability space, with , and let and () be convex closed sets. The violation probability of a point is
For a multi-extraction , the program minimises over . It is assumed that every has a unique solution . A constraint is a support constraint of if its removal changes the solution. A convex has at most support constraints (Proposition 2.2). The problem is fully-supported if, for every , the program built from independent samples has exactly support constraints with -probability one.
Two further objects carry the argument. For of cardinality , is the set of multi-extractions whose support constraints have exactly the indexes in . The violation law is
the distribution of the violation of the solution built from samples.
Formalization targets
Goal: Theorem 2.4, equation (2.3)
For a fully-supported problem, every and every ,
Milestones (PART 1 of §3)
- Proposition 2.2: at most support constraints.
- for , where is the set where are not violated by the solution generated by ; and up to a probability-zero set.
- (3.3): for every of cardinality .
- (3.4): for all .
- Moment uniqueness: is the only distribution on satisfying (3.4).
- (3.2): .
- Partition chain: .
- Integration by parts: .
Significance
The result. Equation (2.3) shows that the scenario bound (2.2) is tight: no bound that depends only on , and can be smaller, because a fully-supported problem attains it. The distribution of is then a Beta law, being the probability that a variable is at least , the same for every fully-supported problem. This is what fixes the sample sizes used in practice: is chosen so that the binomial tail is below a confidence level . Fact (3.2), that has distribution function whatever the problem, is a distribution-free statement of independent interest.
Formalizing it. The result is proved in the source. As far as is known it has no machine-checked proof. The goal statement is already posed on the platform, and this mission supplies the paper's proof structure as milestones. Two milestones are reusable outside the scenario approach: the uniqueness of a distribution on given the moments , and the incomplete-beta identity for binomial tails.
Difficulty
The obvious route would compute the law of directly, but it depends on the geometry of the constraints. The paper never computes it. It obtains the law of only implicitly, through the infinite family of identities (3.4), and recovers it by a uniqueness theorem for moment problems. Two points need care. First, full support holds only almost surely: duplicated samples, for instance, produce programs with fewer than support constraints, so every set identity holds only up to null sets. Second, the claim that removing a non-support constraint keeps the first constraints as the only support constraints uses Proposition 2.2. Two identical non-support constraints show that a constraint can become a support constraint after another is removed, unless the count is bounded by .
Formalization scope
Goal. The goal is the already-posed platform statement ScenarioApproach.Generalization.violation_tail_eq_binomial_sum_of_fullySupported (theorem id cffaa932-832c-42ca-9e81-1848ffab7e34), referenced as it stands and not restated. Proposition 2.2 is the platform statement card_support_constraints_le_dim (f70e8aa3-…). This mission adds the PART 1 steps as milestones under ScenarioExact.PartOne.
Representation. Decisions are vectors in EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin d). A multi-extraction is ω : Fin m → Δ, with 0-based indexes, so is and "" are the indexes . is Measure.pi (fun _ : Fin m => P). , the feasible set, solutions, support constraints and full support are the published definitions violation, feasibleSet, IsSolution, IsSupportConstraint and FullySupported. A support constraint is one whose removal admits a feasible point of strictly smaller cost, which under uniqueness is the paper's "its removal changes the solution". Full support is almost sure, not pointwise.
Hypotheses made explicit. Assumption 1 is entered as existence and uniqueness of the solution for every number of constraints and every sample, together with a family of solution maps θs k, each assumed to solve and to be measurable. Under uniqueness, θs N is the goal's solution map. The paper's "measurability ... is assumed for granted" (p. 4) is replaced by joint measurability of and measurability of the solution maps, the same two hypotheses as the goal. No set is assumed measurable. The nonempty-interior clause of Assumption 1 is unused in PART 1 and is not assumed, so the milestones compose with the goal.
Conventions. is the push-forward measure violationLaw on , with = violationLaw … (Set.Iic α). Integrals against are lower Lebesgue integrals of nonnegative integrands, as extended nonnegative reals: over for , and over for in the partition chain, since that integral comes from the event . The integration-by-parts identity is a real interval integral. Ranges are , , and .
Ruled out. A pointwise "exactly support constraints for every sample" would be unsatisfiable for many problems (repeated samples) and would trivialise the probabilistic content, so it is not used. Assuming measurability of the event or of , or the identity , as a hypothesis would assume part of the conclusion, so none of these is a hypothesis.
Infrastructure. A complete development needs: the support-constraint count (Proposition 2.2, a Helly-type argument), invariance of product measures under coordinate permutations, the change-of-variables formula for push-forward measures, the Hausdorff moment uniqueness theorem on , and the binomial–incomplete-beta identity. The last two are general results, and contributions of them are welcome independently.
Selected references
- M. C. Campi, S. Garatti, The exact feasibility of randomized solutions of uncertain convex programs, SIAM J. Optim. 19(3) (2008) 1211–1230. https://doi.org/10.1137/07069821X
- G. Calafiore, M. C. Campi, Uncertain convex programs: randomized solutions and confidence levels, Math. Program. 102 (2005) 25–46. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10107-003-0499-y
- G. Calafiore, M. C. Campi, The scenario approach to robust control design, IEEE Trans. Automat. Control 51(5) (2006) 742–753. https://doi.org/10.1109/TAC.2006.875041
- M. C. Campi, S. Garatti, Introduction to the Scenario Approach, SIAM, 2018. https://doi.org/10.1137/1.9781611975444
- A. N. Shiryaev, Probability, 2nd ed., Springer, 1996, Chapter II, §12. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4757-2539-1