Robust Solutions of Optimization Problems Affected by Uncertain Probabilities I: The Robust Counterpart of a Linear Constraint under φ-Divergence UncertaintyResearch Paper
Motivation
Many decision problems contain a constraint whose coefficients are an expectation under a probability vector that is not known exactly: an expected cost under uncertain scenario probabilities, an expected payoff of an asset under an estimated distribution, the expected demand in a newsvendor model. The probabilities are usually estimated from data, and a solution that is feasible for the estimate can be infeasible for the true distribution. Robust optimization protects against this by requiring the constraint to hold for every probability vector in an uncertainty region around the estimate.
A natural region is a ball in a φ-divergence, a family of statistical distances between probability vectors that contains the Kullback–Leibler divergence, the Burg entropy, the χ² distances, the Hellinger distance and the variation distance. Such balls arise as asymptotic confidence sets for the true distribution given observed frequencies (Pardo 2006), so the radius has a statistical meaning. Ben-Tal, den Hertog, De Waegenaere, Melenberg and Rennen (Management Science 59(2), 2013) showed that the robust version of a linear constraint over such a ball is equivalent to a finite convex system involving the convex conjugate of φ. This reformulation is a standard tool in the later literature on distributionally robust optimization.
Setting
A φ-divergence function is a function that is convex on , finite on , and satisfies ; the value may be . Examples are (Kullback–Leibler), (Burg), (modified χ²) and (variation). For with the φ-divergence is
and the conjugate of is , a function with values in .
Fix , with columns , , with columns , , a nominal vector and a radius . The uncertainty region is
where the linear constraints can encode and any further information on . A decision satisfies the robust linear constraint if
Inequalities between vectors are componentwise throughout.
Formalization targets
Goal: Theorem 1
Assume and . Then satisfies (11) if and only if there are and with
where for and for . The statement fixes no constants and no particular φ; it holds for the whole class.
Milestones
The proof in the paper has three displayed steps, which are the milestones. With the Lagrange function and the dual objective :
- Closing identity. For , equals , with the convention above at .
- Eq. (15). For and ,
- Duality. Under the hypotheses of Theorem 1, satisfies (11) if and only if for some , . This is split into the weak-duality direction and the strong-duality direction with attainment.
An additional item states Corollary 1, the specialization to , where the multiplier of the normalization is free in sign.
Significance
Theorem 1 turns a semi-infinite constraint, one inequality for each in a convex set, into a single convex inequality in . The left side of (13) is jointly convex because is the perspective of a convex function. For the divergences of Table 4 of the paper the conjugate has a closed form, and the robust constraint becomes a linear, conic quadratic or self-concordant-barrier-representable constraint. The paper's applications (robust asset pricing, a robust newsvendor, and the tractability results of its §5) all start from this theorem, as do its Corollaries 2–5.
The theorem is proved in the paper; no machine-checked proof of it is known. Formalizing it adds a checked robust-counterpart theorem for φ-divergence regions, a reusable encoding of φ-divergences with extended values, and a strong-duality statement with attainment for convex programs whose constraint function takes the value on the boundary of the orthant. It also records a correction: the paper states the theorem for , and that version is false (see Formalization scope).
Difficulty
The separation step (15) and the conjugate identity are elementary manipulations of suprema, but in extended arithmetic: may be at , the conjugate may be , and the case follows its own convention. The central difficulty is the duality step. The worst-case problem is a convex program whose constraint is not a finite convex function on a closed set: for the Burg or χ² divergence it is on the boundary of the orthant, and itself need not be closed. Textbook statements of Slater-type strong duality usually assume finite-valued convex functions on a closed domain, so they do not apply as stated. The statement also requires attainment of the dual minimum, not only the absence of a duality gap, and this is the part a naive limiting argument does not give.
Formalization scope
Conventions:
- Vectors are
Fin n → ℝwith the componentwise order; and areMatrix (Fin n) (Fin m) ℝandMatrix (Fin k) (Fin m) ℝ; and are the columnsfun j => B j iandfun j => C j i. - is
ℝ → EReal, never , finite on , with and convexity on written out inEReal. is allowed, so the Burg, χ² and J divergences are covered. - , , , , and the left side of (13) are
EReal-valued. is theERealproduct, in which . The term is defined by an explicit case split at , and in (13) is read as with the convention applied term by term. - The paper's in is a supremum; is stated in its attained form, with .
- and may be .
Corrected slip. The paper's standing assumption is . The third equality of (15) substitutes , which needs , and Theorem 1 is false for : with , , , , both columns of equal to , , , , , , , the vector lies in and violates (11), while , satisfy (13). Every statement of the mission therefore assumes for all . The hypothesis (the paper's "such that ") and are kept.
Ruled-out trivializations: a conjugate taken as a supremum over all of a real-valued φ with junk values at is a different function; computing the term as with Lean's makes it identically ; a real-valued, everywhere finite φ silently excludes the Burg, χ² and J divergences; dropping or removes the Slater point and changes the theorem. The mission's definitions avoid all four.
Needed infrastructure: suprema of EReal-valued families over half-lines and orthants, the interchange of a supremum over a product with a finite sum, and a Lagrangian strong-duality theorem with attainment for a convex program with finitely many affine inequality constraints and one convex, possibly infinite-valued, inequality constraint with a Slater point in the interior of its domain. That duality theorem, and the φ-divergence definitions, are reusable beyond this mission, in particular for the paper's Corollaries 2–5 and for other distributionally robust formulations. Contributions of any of these pieces as separate theorems are welcome.
Selected references
- A. Ben-Tal, D. den Hertog, A. De Waegenaere, B. Melenberg, G. Rennen, Robust Solutions of Optimization Problems Affected by Uncertain Probabilities, Management Science 59(2):341–357, 2013. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.1120.1641
- L. Pardo, Statistical Inference Based on Divergence Measures, Chapman & Hall/CRC, 2006. https://doi.org/10.1201/9781420034813
- A. Ben-Tal, L. El Ghaoui, A. Nemirovski, Robust Optimization, Princeton University Press, 2009. https://doi.org/10.1515/9781400831050
- R. T. Rockafellar, Convex Analysis, Princeton University Press, 1970. https://doi.org/10.1515/9781400873173