Dual Stochastic Dominance and Related Mean-Risk Models 1: Second-Degree Stochastic Dominance Is Dominance of Absolute Lorenz CurvesResearch Paper
Motivation
Comparing uncertain outcomes is the basic problem of decision making under risk. Second-degree stochastic dominance (SSD) is the comparison that every risk-averse decision maker who prefers larger outcomes agrees with: dominates in this sense exactly when for every nondecreasing concave utility for which the expectations are finite. The relation grew out of majorization theory for finite distributions (Hardy, Littlewood and Pólya) and was extended to general distributions by Rothschild and Stiglitz and by Hadar and Russell around 1970; it is the standard consistency requirement for portfolio models and for risk measures in operations research and finance.
SSD is defined through the distribution function, which is awkward in optimization: portfolio returns are linear in the decision variables, but their distribution functions are not. Ogryczak and Ruszczyński (SIAM J. Optim. 13 (2002) 60–78) showed that SSD has an equivalent dual description through the integrated quantile function, the absolute Lorenz curve, and that the two descriptions are related by Fenchel conjugation. That dual description underlies the later theory of SSD-constrained optimization (Dentcheva and Ruszczyński, SIAM J. Optim. 14 (2003)) and the use of conditional value-at-risk as an SSD-consistent risk measure.
Setting
Fix a probability space and real random variables with , .
- The distribution function is (Lean:
distFun P X). - The second performance function is the area below it, (
secondPerformance P X, eq. (2.1)). - SSD: iff for every (
SSD P X Y, eq. (2.2)). The dominating variable has the smaller curve. - The first quantile function is the left-continuous inverse , (
leftQuantile P X). A number is a -quantile if (IsPQuantile P X p q). - The second quantile function (absolute Lorenz curve) is for and otherwise (
secondQuantile P X, eq. (3.2)). - The convex conjugate of is (
conj F), and is the subdifferential of a real function at (subdiff f η).
Formalization targets
Goal: Theorem 3.2
Both directions are required, and the range of includes both endpoints (at the right-hand side contains ).
Milestones, in the order the argument uses them
- (2.4): .
- §2, p. 62: is continuous, convex, nonnegative and nondecreasing.
- §3, p. 64: for the -quantiles form a closed interval with left end .
- (3.3): for every .
- Theorem 3.1(i): on all of .
- Theorem 3.1(ii): on all of .
A companion item, Corollary 3.3, states the four equivalent characterizations of a -quantile (quantile condition, attainment in either conjugate, and the Fenchel–Young equality ).
Significance
Theorem 3.2 converts a condition on distribution functions into a condition on integrated quantiles. Its consequences in the paper include the SSD consistency of the mean–risk models built on tail means (conditional value-at-risk), on the Gini mean difference and on the mean absolute deviation from a quantile, and the linear-programming representations of those models for finitely many scenarios; the companion mission Dual Stochastic Dominance and Related Mean-Risk Models 2 builds on the same objects. Theorem 3.1 is the precise statement that and form a conjugate pair; Corollary 3.3 identifies the subgradients of each with the quantiles of .
All results here are proved in the paper, and the quantile characterization of the increasing concave order also appears in the stochastic-orders literature. None of them is formalized: Mathlib at the pinned revision has ProbabilityTheory.cdf but no convex conjugate on the extended reals, no subdifferential of a real function, no quantile function and no stochastic dominance. The mission produces a machine-checked account of the quantile side of SSD, with the conjugacy stated exactly, including the value off .
Difficulty
The naive route to Theorem 3.2 compares and through the quantile functions directly, but the first quantiles need not be ordered when (the paper notes this on p. 65), so no pointwise argument on quantiles works. The equivalence rests on Theorem 3.1, and there the hard part is computing the conjugate of for a general distribution: atoms of make nondifferentiable and flat pieces of make the maximizer non-unique, so the subdifferential (3.3) and the interval of -quantiles must be handled as sets, and the endpoints (where the supremum need not be attained) and (where it is ) must be treated separately. Part (ii) is a biconjugation statement for a closed convex function, whose general form is not in Mathlib.
Formalization scope
- One probability space
(Ω, P)with[IsProbabilityMeasure P]carries both and ; nothing depends on anything but the laws, and no independence is assumed. - is
P.real {ω | X ω ≤ η}; is a Bochner integral overSet.Iic η; is an interval integral over , placed inEReal, with⊤off . - The conjugate is
⨆ ξ, ((p * ξ : ℝ) : EReal) - F ξin the complete latticeEReal, so terms where contribute , exactly the paper's convention. - Standing assumption. Every item using or assumes
Integrable X P(andIntegrable Y Pin the goal). This is the paper's own hypothesis (p. 65, and the hypothesis of Theorem 3.1), not a repair. The -quantile milestone assumes onlyAEMeasurable X P. - Quantile at . is a real
sInf. It is the true infimum for ; at the paper's value can be whilesInf ∅ = 0. This one point does not affect (3.2), and no item states anything about . - Omitted. The conditional-expectation form in (2.4) is not stated, since it is undefined when .
- Trivializing encodings are ruled out. is defined by (2.1), not as , and by (3.2), not as a conjugate; either shortcut would make a milestone or Theorem 3.1 true by definition.
- Infrastructure and reuse. Welcome contributions: the extended-real conjugate and Fenchel–Young inequality on , biconjugation of closed convex functions of one variable, subdifferentials of integrals of monotone functions, and the basic theory of left quantiles (the quantile transform ). These are reusable beyond this mission, in particular by mission 2 of this series and by any formalization of conditional value-at-risk. The platform's
VectorSpaceOpt.fenchel_biconjugate_onandConvexOptimization.fenchelConjugateconcern real-valued conjugates on other spaces and are related but not reused.
Selected references
- W. Ogryczak, A. Ruszczyński, Dual stochastic dominance and related mean-risk models, SIAM J. Optim. 13(1) (2002) 60–78. https://doi.org/10.1137/S1052623400375075
- R. T. Rockafellar, Convex Analysis, Princeton University Press, 1970 (Theorems 12.2 and 23.5 are used in the paper's proofs). https://doi.org/10.1515/9781400873173
- M. Rothschild, J. E. Stiglitz, Increasing risk: I. A definition, J. Econom. Theory 2 (1970) 225–243. https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-0531(70)90038-4
- J. Hadar, W. R. Russell, Rules for ordering uncertain prospects, Amer. Econom. Rev. 59 (1969) 25–34. https://www.jstor.org/stable/1811090
- D. Dentcheva, A. Ruszczyński, Optimization with stochastic dominance constraints, SIAM J. Optim. 14(2) (2003) 548–566. https://doi.org/10.1137/S1052623402420528
- M. Shaked, J. G. Shanthikumar, Stochastic Orders, Springer, 2007. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-0-387-34675-5