Multistage Stochastic Optimization III: Distortion Risk Functionals and Their Dual RepresentationTextbook
Motivation
A decision maker who does not want to be judged by expected loss alone needs a functional that weighs the bad outcomes more heavily than the good ones and still behaves well under optimization: monotone, convex, unchanged by shifting the loss, and scaling with it. Kusuoka's theorem (mission II) says every such law-invariant functional on an atomless space is a supremum of mixtures of Average Values-at-Risk. The mixtures themselves are the distortion risk functionals of Denneberg (Distorted probabilities and insurance premiums, Methods of Operations Research 63, 1990) and Acerbi (Spectral measures of risk: A coherent representation of subjective risk aversion, Journal of Banking and Finance 26, 2002, doi:10.1016/S0378-4266(02)00281-9), also called spectral risk measures: integrals of the quantile function against a nondecreasing density . They are the risk functionals used throughout Pflug and Pichler's book (doi:10.1007/978-3-319-08843-3) in the multistage objectives of Chapters 5 and 6, and the three representations proved in Sections 3.2 to 3.4 — as a supremum over densities , as a maximum over uniform variables, and as an infimum over convex-conjugate constraints — are what make them computable inside an optimization model. This mission formalizes those representations.
Setting
Fix a probability space . A random variable is a loss, and the functionals act on , the bounded measurable ones. The Value-at-Risk at level is the lower quantile and the Average Value-at-Risk at level is , extended to by the essential supremum (mission II). A risk functional satisfies the four axioms (M), (C), (T), (H) of Definition 3.2.
A distortion function is a nonnegative, nondecreasing with , and the distortion risk functional with density is
The Average Value-at-Risk is the case . A random variable is dominated by , , when , and for every . A variable is uniformly distributed when on . For the conjugate is .
Formalization targets
Goal — Theorem 3.16 (printed pp. 105–106)
The distortion functional is a risk functional (printed p. 99)
satisfies (M), (C), (T) and (H).
Representation (3.11) (printed p. 100)
There is a probability measure on with for all .
Corollary 3.18 (printed pp. 107–108)
For , ; for the latter with the upper bound dropped.
Corollary 3.19 (printed p. 108)
On an atomless space, , the maximum attained.
Theorem 3.22 (printed p. 111)
over measurable .
Significance
Theorem 3.16 identifies the conjugate of a distortion functional: is when and otherwise, so is the support function of an explicit convex set of densities. Everything else follows from that. Corollary 3.18 recovers the classical dual of the Average Value-at-Risk and shows that its constraints can be relaxed to the levels in ; Corollary 3.19 turns the supremum into a maximum over couplings and identifies the maximizer, the co-monotone one, which is how distortion functionals are evaluated on scenario trees; Corollary 3.21, not stated here, combines the theorem with Kusuoka's representation to give the dual of every version independent risk functional. Theorem 3.22 goes the other way and writes as an infimum, which is what converts a minimax problem — minimize a supremum over — into a plain minimization over the decision and an auxiliary function , the form in which the book solves risk-averse programs in Chapters 5 and 6.
Everything here is proved in the source and in the cited papers; the platform has the finite-scenario Artzner–Delbaen representation of coherent risk measures but nothing on distortion functionals, and Mathlib has no risk-measure material and no quantile-based representation theory. The definitions of this mission sit on those of mission II and are reused as such.
Difficulty
The obvious route to Theorem 3.16 is Fenchel–Moreau duality: is convex and lower semicontinuous on , so it equals its biconjugate, and the task is to compute . The step where the naive computation stalls is bounding by a quantity that depends only on the distributions of and : this is the rearrangement (Chebyshev, Hardy–Littlewood) inequality , with equality for co-monotone couplings. Given it, , and testing with indicator-type shows the supremum is exactly when the upper-tail averages of are dominated by those of , which is the constraint . Neither the rearrangement inequality nor the identification of the conjugate is available in Mathlib.
For the corollaries the difficulties are concrete. Corollary 3.18 needs to be deduced from the constraints, which the source does by contradiction through the value . Corollary 3.19 needs the co-monotone coupling to exist, which is where the atomless hypothesis enters, and needs to be feasible for (3.15), which uses . Theorem 3.22 needs, besides the inequality from Fenchel–Young, an admissible that nearly attains it; the source builds it from and via Corollary 3.23.
Formalization scope
Random variables are functions on an arbitrary measurable space with a
probability measure, exactly as in mission II, whose MemLinfty, valueAtRisk,
averageValueAtRisk, IsRiskFunctional, Atomless and IsKusuokaMeasure are imported and not
redefined. The distortion density is a function on constrained on ; its
integrability on is part of the definition, and both and
integrate over the open interval, which excludes the level where the quantile formula is
not meaningful and changes no value.
Every supremum and infimum is over a subtype of functions satisfying the constraints, and the prose of each item records why the family is nonempty and bounded, so that no real supremum takes its junk value. Pointwise constraints on are almost sure. The constraint of (3.15) is stated for : at the source's expression is and means the limit, and the constraint there is implied by the others; (3.19) at is stated separately with the upper bound dropped. The conjugate takes values in the extended reals, and admissibility in Theorem 3.22 requires finite almost everywhere, integrable, with integral at most , and integrable — the conditions under which the expectations in (3.24) are the integrals the source means.
Two hypotheses are added beyond the printed statements and are flagged in the items: atomless for Corollary 3.19, because otherwise no uniform variable need exist and the maximum would be over an empty set; and integrability of in Theorem 3.22, without which Lean's integral of a non-integrable is . Theorem 3.16 itself carries no atomless hypothesis, and the mission notes check the identity on two-point spaces by hand. A trivializing formalization — a constraint set that is empty or unbounded, so that the supremum is — is excluded by the constant density , feasible for every , and by .
Welcome contributions beyond the milestones: Corollary 3.15 (the representation through the distribution function for ), Corollary 3.21 (the dual of a version independent risk functional through its Kusuoka set), Corollary 3.23, and the explicit mixing measure (3.12).
Selected references
- Georg Ch. Pflug and Alois Pichler, Multistage Stochastic Optimization, Springer, 2014, Sections 3.2–3.4. doi:10.1007/978-3-319-08843-3
- Carlo Acerbi, Spectral measures of risk: A coherent representation of subjective risk aversion, Journal of Banking and Finance 26 (2002). doi:10.1016/S0378-4266(02)00281-9
- Shigeo Kusuoka, On law invariant coherent risk measures, Advances in Mathematical Economics 3 (2001). doi:10.1007/978-4-431-67891-5_4
- Alois Pichler, The natural Banach space for version independent risk measures, Insurance: Mathematics and Economics 53 (2013). doi:10.1016/j.insmatheco.2013.07.005
- Georg Ch. Pflug and Werner Römisch, Modeling, Measuring and Managing Risk, World Scientific, 2007. doi:10.1142/6478