Primal and Dual Linear Decision Rules in Stochastic and Robust Optimization 3: In Multistage Programs, the Primal and Dual Linear Decision Rule Problems Equal the LPs (4.2) and (4.6)Research Paper
Motivation
A linear multistage stochastic program chooses decisions over stages while a random vector is revealed one piece at a time; each decision may depend only on what has been observed so far. Such programs model production planning, capacity expansion, hydro scheduling and portfolio problems. Computing their optimal value exactly is intractable in general: Shapiro and Nemirovski argue that even medium-accuracy solutions are out of reach when the number of stages grows (Shapiro–Nemirovski 2005), and already the one-stage problem is #P-hard (Dyer–Stougie 2006, Theorem 3.2, as cited by the paper).
Linear decision rules restrict every decision to be an affine function of the observations. Introduced for robust optimization by Ben-Tal, Goryashko, Guslitzer and Nemirovski (2004) and carried into stochastic programming by Shapiro and Nemirovski and by Chen, Sim, Sun and Zhang (2008), they turn the problem into a finite one whose optimal value is an upper bound. Kuhn, Wiesemann and Georghiou (Optimization Online 2009/02/2218; Math. Program. 130, 2011) apply the same restriction to the dual problem, which yields a lower bound. They show that, for polyhedral supports, both bounds are values of explicit linear programs. This mission formalizes the multistage version of that statement, Theorem 3 of the preprint.
Setting
Stages are . The uncertainty is with and ; by convention and . The history at stage is , , and the truncation operator maps to . The law of has support , a nonempty bounded polyhedron spanning , whose first two constraints encode . denotes conditional expectation given , and is the second-order moment matrix.
A stage- decision is a square-integrable Borel function of (written ). The program minimizes
with deterministic matrices , and . The linear conditional mean assumption requires almost surely for some ; it holds, for example, for stagewise independent data.
The primal approximation sets and slacks . The dual approximation keeps general rules but imposes the slack equations only in the weak form . The linear programs (4.2) and (4.6) are written in the matrices , multipliers and slack matrices , with .
Formalization targets
Goal: Theorem 3 (p. 22)
Under the standing assumptions, the linear conditional mean assumption, and strict feasibility of ,
as extended-real optimal values. Both equalities are part of the goal.
Milestones
- Lemma 2 (p. 20): for every there is a unique with , and likewise for slacks.
- Lemma 3 (p. 21): a moment condition with can be met by a non-anticipative slack iff it can be met by a slack depending on the full .
- §4, (4.7) (p. 21): through (4.3), the equality constraints of are equivalent to .
Significance
The theorem makes both linear-decision-rule bounds on a multistage stochastic program computable by linear programming, with size polynomial in , , and and hence typically linear in the number of stages. The gap between the two values measures the suboptimality of the primal linear rule. These results underlie later work on piecewise-linear and lifted decision rules and on multistage robust and distributionally robust optimization.
The preprint omits the proof of Theorem 3 ("it widely parallels the argumentation in Section 2"), so a formal proof has to supply the multistage details: the conditional-expectation bookkeeping, the truncation operators and the transfer of the one-stage cone description to non-anticipative slacks. No part of this paper has been machine-checked before; the companion mission of this series formalizes the one-stage Theorem 1.
Difficulty
The obvious route repeats the one-stage argument stage by stage, and it breaks at the slack constraints of . A slack must be a function of alone, while the one-stage cone characterization of moment vectors concerns functions of the full ; Lemma 3 bridges them only through the linear conditional mean assumption and conditional expectations. A second difficulty is the closure gap between that cone and its polyhedral outer description: the equality of and relies on strict feasibility, and a proof that ignores it is wrong. On the primal side, the passage from almost sure constraints to identities of matrices needs both that every point of is charged by and that spans .
Formalization scope
Vectors are functions Fin d → ℝ; stage is the Fin T index and coordinate is index 0. The history dimension is kbar kk t, the truncation is the restriction to the first coordinates, and is also given as a matrix. is Mathlib's condExp with respect to the σ-algebra generated by . " is the support of " means: closed, , and every ball around a point of has positive mass. Decision rules are Borel functions of the history whose composition with is in . Optimal values are infima in EReal ( if infeasible, if unbounded), and "equivalent" means equal optimal values. The matrices are data, with the conditional-mean identity as a hypothesis.
Three conventions are fixed where the page is silent or misprinted. Strict feasibility of , not defined in §4, is the analogue of (2.9) for the standard form (4.1): slacks at least almost surely. The equality constraint of is printed with inside ; the formalization follows (4.7), where the sum covers only . The sign condition in (4.5c) is printed as for a function of , and is read as . The theorem's last sentence (polynomial size, efficient solvability) is informal and not formalized. One hypothesis is added: the goal's second equality assumes or that some row of (the rows of below (2.1b)) is nonzero (the first equality is stated without it). For the support is the single point , and if has no nonzero row beyond (2.1b) the cone of Proposition 3 is all of ; the printed second equality then fails (a strictly feasible one-stage instance has while (4.6) is unbounded below). The added hypothesis excludes exactly this case.
Expectations are Bochner integrals, which vanish on non-integrable functions; under the standing assumptions is bounded almost surely, so all integrands involving square-integrable rules are integrable and no constraint is satisfied vacuously. Matrix.inv returns on singular matrices, but is positive definite under the standing assumptions. The linear conditional mean hypothesis cannot be dropped from Lemmas 2 and 3: without it need not exist.
A complete development needs the support and moment facts of §2 (, almost sure constraints extend to ), Farkas-type duality for the polyhedron , the tower property of conditional expectation, and the cone results of Propositions 3 and 4 of the preprint. These are reusable across the series. Proofs of the milestones, or of these supporting facts as separate lemmas, are welcome.
Selected references
- D. Kuhn, W. Wiesemann, A. Georghiou, Primal and dual linear decision rules in stochastic and robust optimization, Optimization Online preprint 2009/02/2218, 2009; Math. Program. 130:177–209, 2011. https://optimization-online.org/2009/02/2218/ ; https://doi.org/10.1007/s10107-009-0331-4
- A. Ben-Tal, A. Goryashko, E. Guslitzer, A. Nemirovski, Adjustable robust solutions of uncertain linear programs, Math. Program. 99:351–376, 2004. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10107-003-0454-y
- A. Shapiro, A. Nemirovski, On complexity of stochastic programming problems, in Continuous Optimization, Springer, 2005. https://doi.org/10.1007/0-387-26771-9_4
- X. Chen, M. Sim, P. Sun, J. Zhang, A linear decision-based approximation approach to stochastic programming, Oper. Res. 56(2):344–357, 2008. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.1070.0441
- M. Dyer, L. Stougie, Computational complexity of stochastic programming problems, Math. Program. 106:423–432, 2006. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10107-005-0597-0