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Operations Research

1,660 missions · 824 completed

The discipline of applying mathematical analysis to complex decision problems in operations: allocating scarce resources, scheduling, routing, inventory, and the design of service and production systems. Drawing on mathematical programming, stochastic modeling, queueing, simulation, and game-theoretic reasoning, it seeks policies that perform provably well in systems shaped by constraints, congestion, and uncertainty.

Missions

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Optimal TransportOptimizationProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

On a Problem of Optimal Transport Under Marginal Martingale Constraints 8: If Affine Lines Meet h′ in at Most k Points, Optimal Plans Split Each Non-Atom Into at Most k PointsResearch Paper

Motivation

Martingale optimal transport asks for the cheapest way to couple two given laws μ\muμ and ν\nuν of a price at two dates under the constraint that the coupling is a martingale: the conditional mean of the later price given the earlier one equals the earlier one. It is the model-independent pricing problem of mathematical finance: given the marginal laws implied by vanilla option prices, the extreme values of E[c(X,Y)]E[c(X,Y)]E[c(X,Y)] over all martingale couplings bound the price of the exotic payoff ccc (Beiglböck, Henry-Labordère, Penkner 2013; Galichon, Henry-Labordère, Touzi 2014). In the classical (non-martingale) transport problem, the shape of the cost determines the shape of the optimal coupling: for strictly convex costs of y−xy-xy−x on the line the optimizer is a monotone map. The question this mission addresses is the martingale analogue: how much can an optimal martingale coupling split a single starting point, as a function of the cost?

Beiglböck and Juillet (arXiv:1208.1509, Ann. Probab. 2016) introduced the variational lemma for this problem and used it to prove, among other results, that the left-curtain coupling is optimal for a family of costs and that, for costs h(y−x)h(y-x)h(y−x), the number of points into which an optimal plan sends a non-atom of μ\muμ is bounded by a geometric property of h′h'h′ alone (their Theorem 7.1). This mission formalizes that bound.

Setting

All measures are Borel measures on R\mathbb RR or R2\mathbb R^2R2. A martingale transport plan between probability measures μ,ν\mu,\nuμ,ν on R\mathbb RR is a measure π\piπ on R×R\mathbb R\times\mathbb RR×R with marginals μ\muμ and ν\nuν such that ∫ρ(x)(y−x) dπ(x,y)=0\int\rho(x)(y-x)\,d\pi(x,y)=0∫ρ(x)(y−x)dπ(x,y)=0 for every bounded Borel ρ\rhoρ; equivalently, the disintegration (πx)(\pi_x)(πx​) of π\piπ along its first coordinate satisfies ∫y dπx(y)=x\int y\,d\pi_x(y)=x∫ydπx​(y)=x for μ\muμ-almost every xxx. The set of such plans is ΠM(μ,ν)\Pi_M(\mu,\nu)ΠM​(μ,ν); it is nonempty exactly when μ\muμ and ν\nuν are in convex order, μ⪯Cν\mu\preceq_C\nuμ⪯C​ν, meaning ∫φ dμ≤∫φ dν\int\varphi\,d\mu\le\int\varphi\,d\nu∫φdμ≤∫φdν for every convex φ\varphiφ.

A cost is a function c:R2→Rc:\mathbb R^2\to\mathbb Rc:R2→R. It satisfies the sufficient integrability condition if c(x,y)≥a(x)+b(y)c(x,y)\ge a(x)+b(y)c(x,y)≥a(x)+b(y) for some a∈L1(μ)a\in L^1(\mu)a∈L1(μ), b∈L1(ν)b\in L^1(\nu)b∈L1(ν); then Eπ[c]=∫c dπ∈(−∞,+∞]E_\pi[c]=\int c\,d\pi\in(-\infty,+\infty]Eπ​[c]=∫cdπ∈(−∞,+∞] is well defined for every plan. A plan π∈ΠM(μ,ν)\pi\in\Pi_M(\mu,\nu)π∈ΠM​(μ,ν) is optimal if Eπ[c]≤Eπ′[c]E_\pi[c]\le E_{\pi'}[c]Eπ​[c]≤Eπ′​[c] for every π′∈ΠM(μ,ν)\pi'\in\Pi_M(\mu,\nu)π′∈ΠM​(μ,ν).

A competitor of a finitely supported measure α\alphaα on R2\mathbb R^2R2 is a measure α′\alpha'α′ with the same two marginals and the same conditional barycentres ∫y dαx(y)\int y\,d\alpha_x(y)∫ydαx​(y). For a set Γ⊆R2\Gamma\subseteq\mathbb R^2Γ⊆R2, Γx={y:(x,y)∈Γ}\Gamma_x=\{y:(x,y)\in\Gamma\}Γx​={y:(x,y)∈Γ} is its fibre over xxx.

This mission concerns costs of the form c(x,y)=h(y−x)c(x,y)=h(y-x)c(x,y)=h(y−x) with h:R→Rh:\mathbb R\to\mathbb Rh:R→R twice continuously differentiable, and the hypothesis that affine functions meet h′h'h′ in at most kkk points: for all s,t∈Rs,t\in\mathbb Rs,t∈R, ∣{x:h′(x)=sx+t}∣≤k|\{x:h'(x)=sx+t\}|\le k∣{x:h′(x)=sx+t}∣≤k. For instance h(t)=t4h(t)=t^4h(t)=t4 satisfies it with k=3k=3k=3.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 7.1 (p. 38)

Under the hypotheses above, with π\piπ an optimal martingale plan of finite cost, there is a disintegration (πx)x∈R(\pi_x)_{x\in\mathbb R}(πx​)x∈R​ of π\piπ such that for every x∈Rx\in\mathbb Rx∈R

μ({x})>0orcard⁡(spt⁡πx)≤k,\mu(\{x\})>0\qquad\text{or}\qquad\operatorname{card}(\operatorname{spt}\pi_x)\le k,μ({x})>0orcard(sptπx​)≤k,

and if μ\muμ has no atoms, card⁡(spt⁡πx)≤k\operatorname{card}(\operatorname{spt}\pi_x)\le kcard(sptπx​)≤k holds μ\muμ-almost surely for every disintegration of π\piπ.

Milestones

  1. Lemma 1.11 (variational lemma, p. 8): an optimal plan of finite cost is concentrated on a Borel set Γ\GammaΓ such that no finitely supported α\alphaα with spt⁡α⊆Γ\operatorname{spt}\alpha\subseteq\Gammasptα⊆Γ has a strictly cheaper competitor.
  2. Lemma 3.2 (p. 19): if uncountably many fibres Γa\Gamma_aΓa​ have at least kkk points, some (a,b1<⋯<bk)(a,b_1<\dots<b_k)(a,b1​<⋯<bk​) is a limit of such configurations from the right and from the left.
  3. An interior point off the chord (proof of Theorem 7.1, p. 39): for b0<⋯<bkb_0<\dots<b_kb0​<⋯<bk​, some interior bib_ibi​ has h′(bi−a)h'(b_i-a)h′(bi​−a) off the chord of h′(⋅−a)h'(\cdot-a)h′(⋅−a) through b0,bkb_0,b_kb0​,bk​.
  4. The local sign (p. 39): near such (a,bi)(a,b_i)(a,bi​), the cost difference (17) − (18) of a three-point rerouting is nonzero with sign fixed by a−a′a-a'a−a′.
  5. Countably many exceptional points (pp. 38–39): on such a Γ\GammaΓ, only countably many continuity points xxx of μ\muμ have ∣Γx∣≥k+1|\Gamma_x|\ge k+1∣Γx​∣≥k+1.

Significance

The result itself. Theorem 7.1 converts a one-dimensional condition on h′h'h′ into a sparsity statement for every optimal martingale coupling: non-atoms of μ\muμ are sent to at most kkk points. For h(t)=t4h(t)=t^4h(t)=t4 this gives at most three points, and Section 7.3 of the paper gives an example with continuous μ\muμ where the optimizer splits into more than two points, so for this cost the bound cannot be lowered to two. For costs where h′h'h′ is strictly convex (so k=2k=2k=2), it gives the two-point structure also enjoyed by the left-curtain coupling, which is optimal for those costs (Theorem 1.9). Such support bounds are what make the optimizers computable and the corresponding robust price bounds explicit.

Formalizing it. The theorem is proved in the paper; to our knowledge none of it is formalized. A formal proof requires machine-checked versions of the variational lemma (itself resting on a duality theorem of Kellerer type), the countability argument of Lemma 3.2, and the real-analysis estimate behind the three-point rerouting. Each of these is reusable: Lemma 1.11 drives every structural result of the paper, and Lemma 3.2 is used again for the left-monotonicity theorems.

Difficulty

The natural first attempt is to argue pointwise: if a fibre Γa\Gamma_aΓa​ has k+1k+1k+1 points, reroute mass within that fibre to lower the cost. This fails, because a competitor must preserve the barycentre of each fibre, and within a single fibre no rerouting both preserves the barycentre and the marginals. Any improvement must move mass between two different starting points aaa and a′a'a′, and this requires the two fibres to be close to each other and arranged consistently, which a single fibre cannot guarantee. Producing such pairs of fibres needs uncountably many exceptional points (Lemma 3.2) and the set Γ\GammaΓ of the variational lemma, whose existence is the deep part (it rests on a duality theorem for measures with given marginals). A second difficulty is that the conclusion is required at every non-atom xxx, not only almost everywhere, so the exceptional set must be controlled exactly.

Formalization scope

Lean represents measures with Mathlib's Measure ℝ and Measure (ℝ × ℝ). ΠM\Pi_MΠM​ is encoded through the test-function characterization ∫ρ(x)(y−x) dπ=0\int\rho(x)(y-x)\,d\pi=0∫ρ(x)(y−x)dπ=0 for bounded Borel ρ\rhoρ; costs are extended-real integrals ∫c+−∫c−∈[−∞,+∞]\int c^+-\int c^-\in[-\infty,+\infty]∫c+−∫c−∈[−∞,+∞] (the published ModelRiskOT.Duality.extIntegral); competitors of a finitely supported α=∑s∈Swsδs\alpha=\sum_{s\in S}w_s\delta_sα=∑s∈S​ws​δs​ are encoded through the same test-function device. A disintegration is a Markov kernel κ\kappaκ with π=μ⊗κ\pi=\mu\otimes\kappaπ=μ⊗κ, and card⁡(spt⁡πx)≤k\operatorname{card}(\operatorname{spt}\pi_x)\le kcard(sptπx​)≤k is written as "κ(x)\kappa(x)κ(x) is concentrated on a set of at most kkk points", which is equivalent for probability measures on R\mathbb RR. Cardinalities take values in N∪{∞}\mathbb N\cup\{\infty\}N∪{∞}; h′h'h′ is deriv h.

Standing and added hypotheses of the goal: μ,ν\mu,\nuμ,ν are probability measures in convex order; "optimal transport plan" means optimal martingale plan, as throughout Section 7; and, because the proof starts from Lemma 1.11, the hypotheses of that lemma are added: the sufficient integrability condition for ccc and finite cost of π\piπ. "Continuous μ\muμ" is μ({x})=0\mu(\{x\})=0μ({x})=0 for every xxx.

The conclusion is not trivialized: the first part holds for every xxx with a single chosen kernel, not almost everywhere, and the second part quantifies over all kernels, not one. The hypotheses are jointly satisfiable (for example h(t)=t4h(t)=t^4h(t)=t4, k=3k=3k=3, μ=ν=δ0\mu=\nu=\delta_0μ=ν=δ0​).

A complete development needs disintegration of measures on R2\mathbb R^2R2 (available in Mathlib as condKernel), the variational lemma with its duality ingredient, and elementary real analysis. Contributions to the variational lemma are reusable across the whole series of missions on this paper.

Selected references

  • M. Beiglböck, N. Juillet, On a problem of optimal transport under marginal martingale constraints, Ann. Probab. 44(1), 42–106, 2016. arXiv:1208.1509
  • M. Beiglböck, P. Henry-Labordère, F. Penkner, Model-independent bounds for option prices — a mass transport approach, Finance Stoch. 17, 477–501, 2013. doi:10.1007/s00780-013-0205-8
  • A. Galichon, P. Henry-Labordère, N. Touzi, A stochastic control approach to no-arbitrage bounds given marginals, with an application to lookback options, Ann. Appl. Probab. 24(1), 312–336, 2014. doi:10.1214/13-AAP925
  • M. Beiglböck, M. Goldstern, G. Maresch, W. Schachermayer, Optimal and better transport plans, J. Funct. Anal. 256(6), 1907–1927, 2009. doi:10.1016/j.jfa.2009.01.013
8 thms1 active userReviewed
Convex OptimizationDynamical SystemsFunctional Analysis+1·Captain: mikedeng1

Tikhonov Regularization of a Second Order Dynamical System with Hessian Driven Damping 1: For α > 3 and ∫ tε(t) dt < +∞ the Trajectory Converges Weakly to a Minimizer of gResearch Paper

Motivation

Minimizing a convex function ggg on a real Hilbert space H\mathcal HH by first-order methods has a continuous-time counterpart: second-order differential equations whose trajectories descend ggg. Su, Boyd and Candès (20) showed that Nesterov's accelerated gradient method is a discretization of x¨+αtx˙+∇g(x)=0\ddot x+\frac{\alpha}{t}\dot x+\nabla g(x)=0x¨+tα​x˙+∇g(x)=0 with α=3\alpha=3α=3, along which g(x(t))−min⁡g=O(1/t2)g(x(t))-\min g=O(1/t^2)g(x(t))−ming=O(1/t2). Two modifications of this equation have been studied separately because each adds a property the plain system lacks.

  • A Hessian-driven damping term β∇2g(x(t))x˙(t)\beta\nabla^2g(x(t))\dot x(t)β∇2g(x(t))x˙(t) (Attouch, Peypouquet, Redont, J. Differential Equations 2016) damps oscillations and, for β>0\beta>0β>0, makes t2∥∇g(x(t))∥2t^2\|\nabla g(x(t))\|^2t2∥∇g(x(t))∥2 integrable, while keeping fast values and weak convergence of trajectories.
  • A Tikhonov regularization term ϵ(t)x(t)\epsilon(t)x(t)ϵ(t)x(t) with ϵ(t)↓0\epsilon(t)\downarrow0ϵ(t)↓0 (Attouch, Chbani, Riahi, J. Math. Anal. Appl. 2018) can steer trajectories to the minimum-norm minimizer.

Boţ, Csetnek and László (arXiv:1911.12845v2, 2020) combine both terms and ask which properties of the two parent systems survive. This mission covers the first of their answers: when ϵ\epsilonϵ decays fast enough, the fast rates and the weak convergence of trajectories are preserved.

Timeline. 2016 (published 2018): weak convergence of trajectories of x¨+αtx˙+∇g(x)=0\ddot x+\frac\alpha t\dot x+\nabla g(x)=0x¨+tα​x˙+∇g(x)=0 for α>3\alpha>3α>3 (Attouch, Chbani, Peypouquet, Redont, Math. Program. 168). 2016: the same with Hessian-driven damping, β>0\beta>0β>0 (Attouch, Peypouquet, Redont). 2018: Tikhonov regularization of that system, with the O(1/t2)O(1/t^2)O(1/t2) rate kept and strong convergence to the minimum-norm minimizer under slow decay of ϵ\epsilonϵ (Attouch, Chbani, Riahi). 2020: both terms together (Boţ, Csetnek, László, this paper).

Setting

Fix a real Hilbert space H\mathcal HH, a starting time t0>0t_0>0t0​>0, parameters α≥3\alpha\ge3α≥3 and β≥0\beta\ge0β≥0, and initial data u0,v0∈Hu_0,v_0\in\mathcal Hu0​,v0​∈H. The General assumption of the paper is:

  • g:H→Rg:\mathcal H\to\mathbb Rg:H→R is convex and twice Fréchet differentiable, ∇g\nabla g∇g is Lipschitz continuous on bounded sets, and argmin⁡g≠∅\operatorname{argmin} g\ne\emptysetargming=∅; min⁡g\min gming denotes its minimal value;
  • ϵ:[t0,+∞)→[0,+∞)\epsilon:[t_0,+\infty)\to[0,+\infty)ϵ:[t0​,+∞)→[0,+∞) is nonincreasing, of class C1C^1C1, and ϵ(t)→0\epsilon(t)\to0ϵ(t)→0 as t→+∞t\to+\inftyt→+∞.

The dynamical system is

x¨(t)+αtx˙(t)+β∇2g(x(t))x˙(t)+∇g(x(t))+ϵ(t)x(t)=0,t≥t0,x(t0)=u0, x˙(t0)=v0.(5)\ddot x(t)+\frac{\alpha}{t}\dot x(t)+\beta\nabla^2g(x(t))\dot x(t)+\nabla g(x(t))+\epsilon(t)x(t)=0,\quad t\ge t_0,\quad x(t_0)=u_0,\ \dot x(t_0)=v_0. \tag{5}x¨(t)+tα​x˙(t)+β∇2g(x(t))x˙(t)+∇g(x(t))+ϵ(t)x(t)=0,t≥t0​,x(t0​)=u0​, x˙(t0​)=v0​.(5)

A global C2C^2C2-solution is a twice continuously differentiable x:[t0,+∞)→Hx:[t_0,+\infty)\to\mathcal Hx:[t0​,+∞)→H satisfying (5) for every t≥t0t\ge t_0t≥t0​. The decay of ϵ\epsilonϵ is controlled by ∫t0+∞tϵ(t) dt<+∞\int_{t_0}^{+\infty}t\epsilon(t)\,dt<+\infty∫t0​+∞​tϵ(t)dt<+∞ together with one of two conditions:

  • (a) there exist a>1a>1a>1 and t1≥t0t_1\ge t_0t1​≥t0​ with ϵ˙(t)≤−aβ2ϵ2(t)\dot\epsilon(t)\le-\frac{a\beta}{2}\epsilon^2(t)ϵ˙(t)≤−2aβ​ϵ2(t) for all t≥t1t\ge t_1t≥t1​;
  • (b) there exist a>0a>0a>0 and t1≥t0t_1\ge t_0t1​≥t0​ with ϵ(t)≤at\epsilon(t)\le\frac atϵ(t)≤ta​ for all t≥t1t\ge t_1t≥t1​.

A curve x(t)x(t)x(t) converges weakly to xˉ\bar xxˉ if ⟨x(t),v⟩→⟨xˉ,v⟩\langle x(t),v\rangle\to\langle\bar x,v\rangle⟨x(t),v⟩→⟨xˉ,v⟩ for every v∈Hv\in\mathcal Hv∈H. The Lean development lives in the namespace TikhonovHDD.Weak, with IsSolution, GenAssumptionG, GenAssumptionEps, CondA, CondB, argmin, minVal and WeakTendstoAtTop for these objects.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3.5 (p. 15)

Under the General assumption, ∫t0+∞tϵ(t) dt<+∞\int_{t_0}^{+\infty}t\epsilon(t)\,dt<+\infty∫t0​+∞​tϵ(t)dt<+∞ and (a) or (b), if α>3\alpha>3α>3 then every global C2C^2C2-solution of (5) satisfies

∃ xˉ∈argmin⁡g:x(t)⇀xˉ(t→+∞).\exists\,\bar x\in\operatorname{argmin} g:\qquad x(t)\rightharpoonup\bar x\quad(t\to+\infty).∃xˉ∈argming:x(t)⇀xˉ(t→+∞).

Milestones

In the order the argument uses them:

  1. Theorem 2.1 (p. 4): existence and uniqueness of a global C2C^2C2-solution of (5).
  2. Lemma A.2 (p. 29): a bounded-below, locally absolutely continuous FFF with F˙≤G∈L1\dot F\le G\in L^1F˙≤G∈L1 a.e. has a finite limit.
  3. Theorem 3.3 (p. 11), split three ways: for α≥3\alpha\ge3α≥3, g(x(t))−min⁡g=O(1/t2)g(x(t))-\min g=O(1/t^2)g(x(t))−ming=O(1/t2); for α>3\alpha>3α>3, xxx is bounded and t(g(x(t))−min⁡g)t(g(x(t))-\min g)t(g(x(t))−ming), t∥x˙∥2t\|\dot x\|^2t∥x˙∥2, tϵ∥x−x∗∥2t\epsilon\|x-x^*\|^2tϵ∥x−x∗∥2, tϵ∥x∥2∈L1t\epsilon\|x\|^2\in L^1tϵ∥x∥2∈L1; and separately t2∥∇g(x(t))∥2∈L1t^2\|\nabla g(x(t))\|^2\in L^1t2∥∇g(x(t))∥2∈L1.
  4. Lemma A.3 (p. 30): u(t)+tαu˙(t)→uˉu(t)+\frac t\alpha\dot u(t)\to\bar uu(t)+αt​u˙(t)→uˉ with α>0\alpha>0α>0 implies u(t)→uˉu(t)\to\bar uu(t)→uˉ.
  5. Theorem 3.4 (p. 12): for α>3\alpha>3α>3 and every x∗∈argmin⁡gx^*\in\operatorname{argmin} gx∗∈argming, t⟨∇g(x),x−x∗⟩∈L1t\langle\nabla g(x),x-x^*\rangle\in L^1t⟨∇g(x),x−x∗⟩∈L1, lim⁡∥x(t)−x∗∥\lim\|x(t)-x^*\|lim∥x(t)−x∗∥ and lim⁡t⟨x˙+β∇g(x),x−x∗⟩\lim t\langle\dot x+\beta\nabla g(x),x-x^*\ranglelimt⟨x˙+β∇g(x),x−x∗⟩ exist, g(x(t))−min⁡g=o(1/t2)g(x(t))-\min g=o(1/t^2)g(x(t))−ming=o(1/t2), ∥x˙+β∇g(x)∥=o(1/t)\|\dot x+\beta\nabla g(x)\|=o(1/t)∥x˙+β∇g(x)∥=o(1/t), and t2ϵ(t)∥x(t)∥2→0t^2\epsilon(t)\|x(t)\|^2\to0t2ϵ(t)∥x(t)∥2→0.

Significance

The result. Theorem 3.5 shows that the Tikhonov term, when it decays at least as fast as ∫tϵ<∞\int t\epsilon<\infty∫tϵ<∞ requires, does not disturb the asymptotics of the Hessian-damped system: values converge at rate o(1/t2)o(1/t^2)o(1/t2) and trajectories converge weakly to a minimizer. With β=0\beta=0β=0 it recovers the corresponding results for the regularized system without Hessian damping, and with ϵ≡0\epsilon\equiv0ϵ≡0 those for the Hessian-damped system. It is also the boundary case of the paper's second half, where slower decay of ϵ\epsilonϵ is shown to give strong convergence to the minimum-norm minimizer instead.

Formalizing it. The results are proved in the paper; none of them is machine-checked. A formal development would produce reusable pieces: a Lyapunov-energy analysis of second-order systems with time-dependent coefficients, the asymptotic Lemmas A.2 and A.3, and the bridge from "the distance to every minimizer converges and weak cluster points are minimizers" to weak convergence of a curve (the continuous Opial lemma).

Difficulty

The obvious approach, a single Lyapunov function that decreases along trajectories, fails here: the Tikhonov term makes the natural energy Eb\mathcal E_bEb​ only almost nonincreasing, with an error ∝tϵ(t)∥x∗∥2\propto t\epsilon(t)\|x^*\|^2∝tϵ(t)∥x∗∥2 that must be integrated, and the Hessian term produces a cross term −βϵ(t)t2⟨∇g(x),x⟩-\beta\epsilon(t)t^2\langle\nabla g(x),x\rangle−βϵ(t)t2⟨∇g(x),x⟩ that is controlled only by condition (a) or (b). The step from O(1/t2)O(1/t^2)O(1/t2) to o(1/t2)o(1/t^2)o(1/t2) and to the existence of lim⁡∥x(t)−x∗∥\lim\|x(t)-x^*\|lim∥x(t)−x∗∥ cannot be read off a single bounded energy: boundedness of Eb\mathcal E_bEb​ gives rates in OOO, not in ooo, and says nothing directly about ∥x(t)−x∗∥\|x(t)-x^*\|∥x(t)−x∗∥. Weak convergence then requires Opial's lemma, which is not in Mathlib in continuous form. Existence of solutions is itself nontrivial in infinite dimension: the right-hand side involves ∇2g\nabla^2g∇2g, so the system has to be rewritten as a first-order system before the Cauchy–Lipschitz theorem applies.

Formalization scope

  • H\mathcal HH is any real Hilbert space (InnerProductSpace ℝ H, CompleteSpace H); nothing is finite-dimensional, so weak convergence is genuinely weaker than norm convergence. It is stated through inner products with every v∈Hv\in\mathcal Hv∈H; stating it as norm convergence, or testing only some vvv, would change the theorem.
  • Trajectories are maps R→H\mathbb R\to\mathcal HR→H with velocity and acceleration maps; derivatives are one-sided at t0t_0t0​ and values before t0t_0t0​ play no role. Every theorem is stated for every C2C^2C2-solution; Theorem 2.1 shows this class is a singleton, so the hypothesis is not vacuous. A sorry-free check that the hypotheses of the goal can be met (g=0g=0g=0, ϵ=0\epsilon=0ϵ=0, x=0x=0x=0) accompanies the drafts.
  • ∇2g(x)v\nabla^2g(x)v∇2g(x)v is the derivative of ∇g\nabla g∇g at xxx applied to vvv; ϵ˙\dot\epsilonϵ˙ is a derivative map tied to ϵ\epsilonϵ on [t0,+∞)[t_0,+\infty)[t0​,+∞); min⁡g=inf⁡g\min g=\inf gming=infg, attained since argmin⁡g≠∅\operatorname{argmin} g\ne\emptysetargming=∅; L1L^1L1 membership is Lebesgue integrability on [t0,+∞)[t_0,+\infty)[t0​,+∞) (never a comparison of a Bochner integral with a number); OOO, ooo are Asymptotics relations at +∞+\infty+∞.
  • Repair. Theorem 2.1 carries the extra hypothesis "β=0\beta=0β=0 or g∈C2g\in C^2g∈C2". As printed (only twice differentiable ggg) it is false for β>0\beta>0β>0: on R\mathbb RR, g′(x)=2x+x2sin⁡(1/x)g'(x)=2x+x^2\sin(1/x)g′(x)=2x+x2sin(1/x) gives a strongly convex ggg with bounded but discontinuous g′′g''g′′, and the solution from u0=0u_0=0u0​=0, v0=1v_0=1v0​=1 is not C2C^2C2. The paper's own proof uses continuity of ∇2g\nabla^2 g∇2g.
  • Flagged, not repaired. The last claim of Theorem 3.3, t2∥∇g(x(t))∥2∈L1t^2\|\nabla g(x(t))\|^2\in L^1t2∥∇g(x(t))∥2∈L1, is its own item: the paper's argument for it uses a term proportional to β\betaβ, so for β=0\beta=0β=0 the paper gives no proof. No counterexample is known, and the statement is drafted as printed.
  • Referenced, not re-posed. Lemma A.4 (continuous Opial lemma, p. 30), the last step of the goal's proof, is the published InertialAVD.Traj.lemma_A_2 (same hypotheses: SSS nonempty, lim⁡∥x(t)−z∥\lim\|x(t)-z\|lim∥x(t)−z∥ exists for every z∈Sz\in Sz∈S, every weak sequential limit point lies in SSS; same conclusion). It is a reference milestone of this mission; its weak convergence InertialAVD.Traj.WeakTendstoAtTop has the same body as TikhonovHDD.Weak.WeakTendstoAtTop.
  • The model is defined from scratch: the published HessianDamping.DINAVD.Setting concerns a different equation (no ϵx\epsilon xϵx term) and is not reused.
  • Welcome contributions: a general Cauchy–Lipschitz existence theorem for locally Lipschitz first-order systems in Banach spaces on [t0,+∞)[t_0,+\infty)[t0​,+∞) with a blow-up alternative, the continuous Opial lemma, and Lemma A.2 for absolutely continuous functions.

Selected references

  • R.I. Boţ, E.R. Csetnek, S.C. László, Tikhonov regularization of a second order dynamical system with Hessian driven damping, arXiv:1911.12845v2, 2020; published in Math. Program., https://doi.org/10.1007/s10107-020-01528-8. https://arxiv.org/abs/1911.12845v2
  • H. Attouch, J. Peypouquet, P. Redont, Fast convex optimization via inertial dynamics with Hessian driven damping, J. Differential Equations 261(10), 5734–5783, 2016. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jde.2016.08.020
  • H. Attouch, Z. Chbani, H. Riahi, Combining fast inertial dynamics for convex optimization with Tikhonov regularization, J. Math. Anal. Appl. 457(2), 1065–1094, 2018. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmaa.2016.12.017
  • H. Attouch, Z. Chbani, J. Peypouquet, P. Redont, Fast convergence of inertial dynamics and algorithms with asymptotic vanishing viscosity, Math. Program. 168, 123–175, 2018. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10107-016-0992-8
  • W. Su, S. Boyd, E.J. Candès, A differential equation for modeling Nesterov's accelerated gradient method: theory and insights, J. Mach. Learn. Res. 17(153), 1–43, 2016. https://jmlr.org/papers/v17/15-084.html
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Convex OptimizationDynamical SystemsFunctional Analysis+1·Captain: mikedeng1

Tikhonov Regularization of a Second Order Dynamical System with Hessian Driven Damping 2: lim inf ‖x(t) − x*‖ = 0 at the Minimum-Norm Minimizer, and x(t) → x* If x(t) Ends In or Out of B(0, ‖x*‖)Research Paper

Motivation

Many methods for minimizing a smooth convex function ggg on a Hilbert space can be read as discretizations of second order ordinary differential equations, and the asymptotic behaviour of the continuous trajectories predicts the behaviour of the iterates. The inertial system with vanishing damping x¨+αtx˙+∇g(x)=0\ddot x+\frac{\alpha}{t}\dot x+\nabla g(x)=0x¨+tα​x˙+∇g(x)=0 is the continuous counterpart of Nesterov's accelerated gradient method (Su, Boyd, Candès 2016); for α>3\alpha>3α>3 its trajectories converge weakly to some minimizer of ggg (Attouch, Chbani, Peypouquet, Redont 2018). Two modifications of this system have been studied separately. A Hessian driven damping term β∇2g(x)x˙\beta\nabla^2g(x)\dot xβ∇2g(x)x˙ reduces oscillations while keeping the fast rate of the values (Attouch, Peypouquet, Redont 2016). A Tikhonov regularization term ϵ(t)x\epsilon(t)xϵ(t)x with ϵ(t)→0\epsilon(t)\to 0ϵ(t)→0 selects a particular minimizer: under suitable decay of ϵ\epsilonϵ, trajectories approach the minimizer of minimum norm in the strong (norm) topology (Attouch, Chbani, Riahi 2018).

Boţ, Csetnek and László (arXiv:1911.12845v2, published in Mathematical Programming 2021) combine both terms and ask which properties of the two separate systems survive. This mission formalizes their strong convergence result, Theorem 4.4.

Setting

Let H\mathcal HH be a real Hilbert space, t0>0t_0>0t0​>0, α≥3\alpha\ge 3α≥3, β≥0\beta\ge0β≥0, and u0,v0∈Hu_0,v_0\in\mathcal Hu0​,v0​∈H. The General assumption of the paper (p. 2) is:

  • g:H→Rg:\mathcal H\to\mathbb Rg:H→R is convex and twice Fréchet differentiable, ∇g\nabla g∇g is Lipschitz continuous on bounded sets, and argmin⁡g≠∅\operatorname{argmin} g\neq\emptysetargming=∅;
  • ϵ:[t0,+∞)→[0,+∞)\epsilon:[t_0,+\infty)\to[0,+\infty)ϵ:[t0​,+∞)→[0,+∞) is nonincreasing, of class C1C^1C1, and lim⁡t→+∞ϵ(t)=0\lim_{t\to+\infty}\epsilon(t)=0limt→+∞​ϵ(t)=0.

A global C2C^2C2-solution of the system

x¨(t)+αtx˙(t)+β∇2g(x(t))x˙(t)+∇g(x(t))+ϵ(t)x(t)=0,t≥t0,x(t0)=u0, x˙(t0)=v0,(5)\ddot x(t)+\frac{\alpha}{t}\dot x(t)+\beta\nabla^2g(x(t))\dot x(t)+\nabla g(x(t))+\epsilon(t)x(t)=0,\quad t\ge t_0,\qquad x(t_0)=u_0,\ \dot x(t_0)=v_0, \tag{5}x¨(t)+tα​x˙(t)+β∇2g(x(t))x˙(t)+∇g(x(t))+ϵ(t)x(t)=0,t≥t0​,x(t0​)=u0​, x˙(t0​)=v0​,(5)

is a twice continuously differentiable curve x:[t0,+∞)→Hx:[t_0,+\infty)\to\mathcal Hx:[t0​,+∞)→H satisfying (5) at every t≥t0t\ge t_0t≥t0​. The set argmin⁡g\operatorname{argmin} gargming is nonempty, closed and convex, so it has a unique element of minimum norm, denoted x∗x^*x∗. The open ball B(0,∥x∗∥)B(0,\|x^*\|)B(0,∥x∗∥) is {y:∥y∥<∥x∗∥}\{y:\|y\|<\|x^*\|\}{y:∥y∥<∥x∗∥}. In the Lean development these objects are GeneralAssumption g t₀ ε ε', IsSolution g α β t₀ ε u₀ v₀ x xd xdd and IsMinNormMinimizer g xstar in the namespace TikhonovHDD.Strong, with min⁡g\min gming written minValue g.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 4.4 (p. 21)

Assume, in addition to the above,

∫t0+∞ϵ(t)t dt<+∞,lim⁡t→+∞βϵ(t)tα3+1∫t0tϵ2(s)sα3+1 ds=0,\int_{t_0}^{+\infty}\frac{\epsilon(t)}{t}\,dt<+\infty,\qquad \lim_{t\to+\infty}\frac{\beta}{\epsilon(t)t^{\frac{\alpha}{3}+1}}\int_{t_0}^{t}\epsilon^2(s)s^{\frac{\alpha}{3}+1}\,ds=0,∫t0​+∞​tϵ(t)​dt<+∞,t→+∞lim​ϵ(t)t3α​+1β​∫t0​t​ϵ2(s)s3α​+1ds=0,

that ϵ˙(t)≤−aβ2ϵ2(t)\dot\epsilon(t)\le-\frac{a\beta}{2}\epsilon^2(t)ϵ˙(t)≤−2aβ​ϵ2(t) for all t≥t1t\ge t_1t≥t1​, for some a>1a>1a>1 and t1≥t0t_1\ge t_0t1​≥t0​, and that lim⁡t→+∞t2ϵ(t)=+∞\lim_{t\to+\infty}t^2\epsilon(t)=+\inftylimt→+∞​t2ϵ(t)=+∞ if α=3\alpha=3α=3, while t2ϵ(t)≥23α(13α−1+βc2)t^2\epsilon(t)\ge\frac23\alpha\left(\frac13\alpha-1+\beta c^2\right)t2ϵ(t)≥32​α(31​α−1+βc2) for large ttt, for some c>0c>0c>0, if α>3\alpha>3α>3. Then

lim inf⁡t→+∞∥x(t)−x∗∥=0,\liminf_{t\to+\infty}\|x(t)-x^*\|=0,t→+∞liminf​∥x(t)−x∗∥=0,

and

lim⁡t→+∞∥x(t)−x∗∥=0\lim_{t\to+\infty}\|x(t)-x^*\|=0t→+∞lim​∥x(t)−x∗∥=0

if there exists T≥t0T\ge t_0T≥t0​ such that {x(t):t≥T}\{x(t):t\ge T\}{x(t):t≥T} stays either in B(0,∥x∗∥)B(0,\|x^*\|)B(0,∥x∗∥) or in its complement.

Milestones

  1. Lemma A.1 (p. 29): for nonnegative continuous integrable fff on (δ,+∞)(\delta,+\infty)(δ,+∞) and nondecreasing φ≥0\varphi\ge 0φ≥0 with φ(t)→+∞\varphi(t)\to+\inftyφ(t)→+∞, 1φ(t)∫δtφ(s)f(s) ds→0\frac1{\varphi(t)}\int_\delta^t\varphi(s)f(s)\,ds\to0φ(t)1​∫δt​φ(s)f(s)ds→0.
  2. Theorem 3.1 (pp. 5–6): for α≥3\alpha\ge3α≥3, g(x(t))→min⁡gg(x(t))\to\min gg(x(t))→ming under either (a) ∫t0+∞ϵ(t)/t dt<+∞\int_{t_0}^{+\infty}\epsilon(t)/t\,dt<+\infty∫t0​+∞​ϵ(t)/tdt<+∞ together with ϵ˙≤−aβ2ϵ2\dot\epsilon\le-\frac{a\beta}{2}\epsilon^2ϵ˙≤−2aβ​ϵ2 eventually, or (b) ϵ(t)≤a/t\epsilon(t)\le a/tϵ(t)≤a/t eventually.
  3. Case I of the proof of Theorem 4.4 (pp. 21–25): the trajectory eventually stays outside the open ball, and x(t)→x∗x(t)\to x^*x(t)→x∗.
  4. Case II (pp. 25–26): the trajectory eventually stays inside the open ball, and x(t)→x∗x(t)\to x^*x(t)→x∗.
  5. Case III (p. 26): the trajectory is inside and outside the ball for arbitrarily large times, and lim inf⁡∥x(t)−x∗∥=0\liminf\|x(t)-x^*\|=0liminf∥x(t)−x∗∥=0.

The three cases are exhaustive, so Cases I–III together give the goal.

Significance

Theorem 4.4 shows that adding Hessian driven damping does not destroy the selection property of Tikhonov regularization: the trajectory comes arbitrarily close to the minimum-norm minimizer, and converges to it in norm whenever it does not oscillate across the sphere ∥y∥=∥x∗∥\|y\|=\|x^*\|∥y∥=∥x∗∥ forever. Since ϵ(t)→0\epsilon(t)\to 0ϵ(t)→0, the system still approaches argmin⁡g\operatorname{argmin} gargming, but the limit is a canonical minimizer determined by ggg alone, not by the initial data. In infinite dimensions this is the difference between weak and strong convergence, a distinction that matters for ill-posed problems and inverse problems, where the minimum-norm solution is the one usually sought. Remark 4.5 of the paper compares the hypotheses with those of Attouch, Chbani and Riahi for the system without Hessian damping: for β=0\beta=0β=0 the lower bound required of t2ϵ(t)t^2\epsilon(t)t2ϵ(t) when α>3\alpha>3α>3 is, in the authors' words, "less tight" than theirs.

The result is proved in the paper; no part of it has a machine-checked proof. Formalizing it requires a Lyapunov-energy argument for a second order ODE in a Hilbert space, the weak lower semicontinuity of convex functions and of the norm, and the passage from weak to strong convergence via convergence of norms. Theorem 3.1 and Lemma A.1 are standalone results reusable for other Tikhonov-regularized inertial systems.

Difficulty

The weak convergence argument for the unregularized system (Opial's lemma) does not identify the limit, and it does not give strong convergence. Tikhonov regularization supplies the identification only through the Tikhonov curve xϵx_{\epsilon}xϵ​, the minimizer of g+ϵ2∥⋅∥2g+\frac{\epsilon}{2}\|\cdot\|^2g+2ϵ​∥⋅∥2, and comparing x(t)x(t)x(t) with xϵ(t)x_{\epsilon(t)}xϵ(t)​ requires an energy whose derivative is controlled with weights tuned to α\alphaα. The Hessian term produces cross terms of the form βϵ(t)t2⟨∇g(x(t)),x(t)⟩\beta\epsilon(t)t^2\langle\nabla g(x(t)),x(t)\rangleβϵ(t)t2⟨∇g(x(t)),x(t)⟩ that are absent from the system without Hessian damping; the integral hypothesis on ϵ2(s)sα/3+1\epsilon^2(s)s^{\alpha/3+1}ϵ2(s)sα/3+1 and the slow-decay condition ϵ˙≤−aβ2ϵ2\dot\epsilon\le-\frac{a\beta}{2}\epsilon^2ϵ˙≤−2aβ​ϵ2 exist to absorb them. A direct energy estimate only works when ∥x(t)∥≥∥x∗∥\|x(t)\|\ge\|x^*\|∥x(t)∥≥∥x∗∥; inside the ball a different argument is required, and when the trajectory crosses the sphere infinitely often neither argument yields convergence of the whole trajectory, only a liminf statement.

Formalization scope

Conventions committed to in Lean:

  • Curves are maps R→H\mathbb R\to\mathcal HR→H; only their values on [t0,+∞)[t_0,+\infty)[t0​,+∞) matter. Derivatives of xxx, x˙\dot xx˙ and ϵ\epsilonϵ are taken within [t0,+∞)[t_0,+\infty)[t0​,+∞) (one-sided at t0t_0t0​) and passed as explicit maps xd, xdd, ε'; x¨\ddot xx¨ and ϵ˙\dot\epsilonϵ˙ are continuous there.
  • ∇g\nabla g∇g is gradient g; ∇2g(x)v\nabla^2g(x)v∇2g(x)v is the Fréchet derivative of gradient g at xxx applied to vvv. "Lipschitz on bounded sets" means Lipschitz on every closed ball centred at 000.
  • min⁡g\min gming is the infimum of the range of ggg, attained because argmin⁡g≠∅\operatorname{argmin} g\neq\emptysetargming=∅.
  • ∫t0+∞ϵ(t)/t dt<+∞\int_{t_0}^{+\infty}\epsilon(t)/t\,dt<+\infty∫t0​+∞​ϵ(t)/tdt<+∞ is Lebesgue integrability of ϵ(t)/t\epsilon(t)/tϵ(t)/t on [t0,+∞)[t_0,+\infty)[t0​,+∞), never a comparison of a Bochner integral with a number. tα/3+1t^{\alpha/3+1}tα/3+1 is the real power.
  • lim inf⁡t→+∞∥x(t)−x∗∥=0\liminf_{t\to+\infty}\|x(t)-x^*\|=0liminft→+∞​∥x(t)−x∗∥=0 is written as: for every δ>0\delta>0δ>0, ∥x(t)−x∗∥<δ\|x(t)-x^*\|<\delta∥x(t)−x∗∥<δ for arbitrarily large ttt. Lean's Filter.liminf is not used, since it returns 000 for a function tending to +∞+\infty+∞.
  • The alternative "in the ball or in its complement" uses one TTT for both branches, with the disjunction outside the universal quantifier. Placing the disjunction inside (∀t≥T\forall t\ge T∀t≥T, ∥x(t)∥<∥x∗∥\|x(t)\|<\|x^*\|∥x(t)∥<∥x∗∥ or ∥x(t)∥≥∥x∗∥\|x(t)\|\ge\|x^*\|∥x(t)∥≥∥x∗∥) would make the hypothesis always true and the strong convergence claim unconditional, which the paper does not prove.
  • Every statement is made for every global C2C^2C2-solution of (5). Existence and uniqueness of that solution (Theorem 2.1 of the paper) is a separate result, formalized in the companion mission on weak convergence; the hypothesis is not vacuous.
  • No positivity of ϵ\epsilonϵ is assumed: it follows from the conditions for α=3\alpha=3α=3 and α>3\alpha>3α>3.
  • Cases I–III carry the full hypothesis list of Theorem 4.4, although Case II uses only part of it.

No statement of the mission has been repaired against the printed text.

A complete development needs: weak lower semicontinuity of convex continuous functions and of the norm on Hilbert spaces; weak sequential compactness of bounded sets; existence of the minimum-norm element of a closed convex set (Mathlib's projection onto closed convex sets); the strongly convex Tikhonov curve and its convergence to x∗x^*x∗; and calculus for energy functionals along C2C^2C2 curves on half-lines. Lemma A.1 and the Tikhonov-curve facts are reusable for every Tikhonov-regularized dynamics. Contributions of proofs of individual milestones, of supporting lemmas, and of alternative arguments are welcome.

Selected references

  • R.I. Boţ, E.R. Csetnek, S.C. László, Tikhonov regularization of a second order dynamical system with Hessian driven damping, arXiv:1911.12845v2, 2020; Mathematical Programming 189, 151–186, 2021. https://arxiv.org/abs/1911.12845v2, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10107-020-01528-8
  • H. Attouch, Z. Chbani, H. Riahi, Combining fast inertial dynamics for convex optimization with Tikhonov regularization, Journal of Mathematical Analysis and Applications 457, 1065–1094, 2018. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmaa.2016.12.017
  • H. Attouch, J. Peypouquet, P. Redont, Fast convex optimization via inertial dynamics with Hessian driven damping, Journal of Differential Equations 261(10), 5734–5783, 2016. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jde.2016.08.020
  • H. Attouch, Z. Chbani, J. Peypouquet, P. Redont, Fast convergence of inertial dynamics and algorithms with asymptotic vanishing viscosity, Mathematical Programming 168, 123–175, 2018. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10107-016-0992-8
  • W. Su, S. Boyd, E.J. Candès, A differential equation for modeling Nesterov's accelerated gradient method: theory and insights, Journal of Machine Learning Research 17(153), 1–43, 2016. https://jmlr.org/papers/v17/15-084.html
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OptimizationProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

Approximation Algorithms for Product Framing and Pricing 2: With Type-Dependent Choice and IFR Page Views, the TRUNC Algorithm Earns at Least 1/3 of the Optimal RevenueResearch Paper

Motivation

Online retailers, search engines and streaming services show products on a sequence of pages, and most consumers look at only the first few. Which products are seen therefore depends on where they are placed. Gallego, Li, Truong and Wang (Operations Research, 2020) call the problem of placing products on pages to maximize expected revenue product framing. They show that it is NP-hard even with two pages and the multinomial logit model, and they give simple algorithms with constant-factor guarantees.

This mission concerns their second guarantee. In their basic model every consumer chooses with the same choice model, whatever the number of pages she views. In practice the number of pages viewed is itself informative: consumers who browse many pages may be keener buyers. Section 6 of the paper lets the choice model depend on the number of pages viewed and proposes the TRUNC algorithm for this setting. The guarantee is that TRUNC earns at least one third of the optimal expected revenue.

Setting

There are nnn products with revenues ri≥0r_i\ge 0ri​≥0 and mmm virtual pages, each holding at most ppp products; write [k]={1,…,k}[k]=\{1,\dots,k\}[k]={1,…,k}. A framing places each product on at most one page, with at most ppp products per page. A consumer views a random number X∈[m]X\in[m]X∈[m] of pages, with law λ(x)=P[X=x]\lambda(x)=\mathbb P[X=x]λ(x)=P[X=x], tail Λ(x)=P[X≥x]\Lambda(x)=\mathbb P[X\ge x]Λ(x)=P[X≥x] and failure rate h(x)=λ(x)/Λ(x)h(x)=\lambda(x)/\Lambda(x)h(x)=λ(x)/Λ(x). Her consideration set is the set of products on pages 1,…,X1,\dots,X1,…,X.

A consumer who views xxx pages is of type xxx and buys product iii from consideration set SSS with probability Px(i,S)P_x(i,S)Px​(i,S), where Px(i,S)≥0P_x(i,S)\ge 0Px​(i,S)≥0, Px(i,S)=0P_x(i,S)=0Px​(i,S)=0 for i∉Si\notin Si∈/S, and ∑i∈SPx(i,S)≤1\sum_{i\in S}P_x(i,S)\le 1∑i∈S​Px​(i,S)≤1. The revenue of SSS for type xxx and the best capacitated revenue are

Rx(S)=∑i∈SriPx(i,S),U(x)=max⁡S⊆[n], ∣S∣≤xpRx(S).R_x(S)=\sum_{i\in S}r_iP_x(i,S),\qquad U(x)=\max_{S\subseteq[n],\ |S|\le xp}R_x(S).Rx​(S)=i∈S∑​ri​Px​(i,S),U(x)=S⊆[n], ∣S∣≤xpmax​Rx​(S).

A framing fff earns ∑x∈[m]λ(x)Rx(Cf(x))\sum_{x\in[m]}\lambda(x)R_x(C_f(x))∑x∈[m]​λ(x)Rx​(Cf​(x)), where Cf(x)C_f(x)Cf​(x) is the set of products on pages 1,…,x1,\dots,x1,…,x. Its maximum over all framings is VOPTV^{OPT}VOPT. The assumptions are:

  • B1: Rx(S)≤Ry(S)R_x(S)\le R_y(S)Rx​(S)≤Ry​(S) whenever x≤yx\le yx≤y and ∣S∣≤xp|S|\le xp∣S∣≤xp;
  • B2: U(x)/xU(x)/xU(x)/x is nonincreasing in xxx;
  • B3: problem (9) defining UUU can be solved, here exactly;
  • B4: XXX has an increasing failure rate (IFR), i.e. hhh is nondecreasing (Shaked and Shanthikumar 2007).

TRUNC(yyy), for y∈[m]y\in[m]y∈[m], picks an optimal assortment S(y)S(y)S(y) for U(y)U(y)U(y) and places it, in any arrangement, on pages 1,…,y1,\dots,y1,…,y, leaving the remaining pages blank. TRUNC takes the best of these mmm framings; its revenue is VTRUNCV^{TRUNC}VTRUNC.

The analysis passes through the bound-revealing program (10): minimize max⁡x∈[m]U(x)Λ(x)\max_{x\in[m]}U(x)\Lambda(x)maxx∈[m]​U(x)Λ(x) over nondecreasing U≥0U\ge 0U≥0 with U(x)/xU(x)/xU(x)/x nonincreasing and over tails 1=Λ(1)≥⋯≥Λ(m)≥01=\Lambda(1)\ge\cdots\ge\Lambda(m)\ge 01=Λ(1)≥⋯≥Λ(m)≥0 with Λ(x+1)Λ(x−1)≤Λ(x)2\Lambda(x+1)\Lambda(x-1)\le\Lambda(x)^2Λ(x+1)Λ(x−1)≤Λ(x)2, subject to ∑xλ(x)U(x)=1\sum_x\lambda(x)U(x)=1∑x​λ(x)U(x)=1.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 4

Under Assumptions B1–B4, for every choice of optimal assortments and every arrangement on the pages,

VTRUNC  ≥  13 VOPT.V^{TRUNC}\;\ge\;\frac13\,V^{OPT}.VTRUNC≥31​VOPT.

Milestones

In the order the proof uses them:

  1. Upper bound (§6, p. 13): VOPT≤E[U(X)]=∑xλ(x)U(x)V^{OPT}\le\mathbf E[U(X)]=\sum_x\lambda(x)U(x)VOPT≤E[U(X)]=∑x​λ(x)U(x).
  2. Lower bound (§6.1, p. 14): every run of TRUNC(yyy) earns at least U(y)Λ(y)U(y)\Lambda(y)U(y)Λ(y).
  3. Lemma 8: for an IFR tail with Λ>0\Lambda>0Λ>0, g(x)=xΛ(x)g(x)=x\Lambda(x)g(x)=xΛ(x) is weakly unimodal, and its largest maximizer is min⁡{x:h(x)>1/(x+1)}\min\{x: h(x)>1/(x+1)\}min{x:h(x)>1/(x+1)}.
  4. Proposition 5, Lemma 9, Proposition 6, Proposition 7: the structure of every optimal solution of (10) with Λ>0\Lambda>0Λ>0. With yyy the largest maximizer of U(x)Λ(x)U(x)\Lambda(x)U(x)Λ(x):
    • U(x)/xU(x)/xU(x)/x is constant for x≥yx\ge yx≥y;
    • yyy also maximizes xΛ(x)x\Lambda(x)xΛ(x);
    • U(x)Λ(x)U(x)\Lambda(x)U(x)Λ(x) is constant for x≤yx\le yx≤y;
    • hhh is constant on [y,m−1][y,m-1][y,m−1].
  5. Value of (10) (A.4, p. 42): every feasible point of (10) has max⁡xU(x)Λ(x)≥1/3\max_xU(x)\Lambda(x)\ge 1/3maxx​U(x)Λ(x)≥1/3.

Significance

The theorem shows that framing under type-dependent choice admits a constant-factor approximation using only mmm calls to an assortment oracle, although the framing problem itself is NP-hard. The constant does not depend on the number of products, pages or page capacity. The bound-revealing program (10) is a self-contained extremal problem about log-concave tails and is reusable wherever a revenue curve with decreasing average returns meets an IFR horizon. The numerical value of (10) decreases with mmm (2/32/32/3 at m=2m=2m=2, about 0.360.360.36 at m=40m=40m=40), so the constant 1/31/31/3 is approached only as the number of pages grows.

The result is proved in the paper. No part of it has a machine-checked proof: the platform has no item on product framing, discrete failure rates or program (10). A complete development would give a machine-checked proof of the approximation ratio. It would also give a checked treatment of the perturbation arguments of Appendix A.4, which the paper presents briefly.

Difficulty

Two steps are elementary: the upper bound (a consumer of type xxx never sees more than xpxpxp products) and the lower bound (every consumer of type x≥yx\ge yx≥y sees all of S(y)S(y)S(y)).

The difficulty lies in the extremal problem (10). It is not convex: the IFR constraint is a log-concavity condition, and the objective is a maximum of products U(x)Λ(x)U(x)\Lambda(x)U(x)Λ(x). A direct bound such as max⁡xU(x)Λ(x)≥∑xλ(x)U(x)/m\max_xU(x)\Lambda(x)\ge\sum_x\lambda(x)U(x)/mmaxx​U(x)Λ(x)≥∑x​λ(x)U(x)/m gives a constant that decays with mmm. The uniform constant comes from showing that the extremal tail is geometric beyond the maximizing page and that the extremal UUU is pinned down on both sides of it. The paper reaches this structure through optimality conditions, so a formal proof must also establish that (10) attains its minimum, or must avoid that step.

Formalization scope

Products are Fin n. Pages are the natural numbers 1,…,m1,\dots,m1,…,m, as in the paper, with m≥1m\ge 1m≥1 and p≥1p\ge 1p≥1. A framing is f : Fin n → ℕ: product iii is on page f i when 1≤f(i)≤m1\le f(i)\le m1≤f(i)≤m, and f i = 0 means it is not displayed. The law λ\lambdaλ and the functions of (10) are functions on N\mathbb NN of which only the values on [m][m][m] are used, and Λ(m+1)=0\Lambda(m+1)=0Λ(m+1)=0.

VOPTV^{OPT}VOPT and UUU are maxima over finite nonempty families, and VTRUNCV^{TRUNC}VTRUNC is a Finset.sup' over y∈[m]y\in[m]y∈[m]. TRUNC is a predicate on its outputs, not a function, and the goal is quantified over every family of runs. Assumption B3 is used with ϵ=0\epsilon=0ϵ=0, as everywhere in the paper. IFR is required only where the failure rate is defined (Λ>0\Lambda>0Λ>0), so laws whose support ends before page mmm are allowed. Nonnegative revenues ri≥0r_i\ge 0ri​≥0 are assumed; the lower bound of milestone 2 needs them.

No trivializing reading. The goal is not stated for one particular filling heuristic, or for some run only, and VTRUNCV^{TRUNC}VTRUNC is the revenue of the framings themselves, not the lower bound U(y)Λ(y)U(y)\Lambda(y)U(y)Λ(y).

Page numbers refer to the authors' accepted manuscript of the Operations Research article, which differ from the journal typesetting. The development needs only Mathlib (finite sums and maxima over Finset). Program (10) and Lemma 8 are independent of the framing model. Contributions are welcome at every milestone: Lemma 8 and the bound for (10) are the most self-contained.

Selected references

  • G. Gallego, A. Li, V.-A. Truong, X. Wang, Approximation Algorithms for Product Framing and Pricing, Operations Research, 2020. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.2019.1875
  • M. Shaked, J. G. Shanthikumar, Stochastic Orders, Springer, 2007. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-0-387-34675-5
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Convex OptimizationOptimizationStatistics·Captain: mikedeng1

Sparse Regression at Scale: Branch-and-Bound rooted in First-Order Optimization 1: The Perspective Interval Relaxation Is a Least Squares Problem with a Separable Reverse-Huber or ℓ1 PenaltyResearch Paper

Motivation

Best subset selection with ridge shrinkage asks for a sparse linear model: given a design matrix X∈Rn×pX\in\mathbb R^{n\times p}X∈Rn×p and responses y∈Rny\in\mathbb R^ny∈Rn, minimize

12∥y−Xβ∥22+λ0∥β∥0+λ2∥β∥22,\tfrac12\|y-X\beta\|_2^2+\lambda_0\|\beta\|_0+\lambda_2\|\beta\|_2^2 ,21​∥y−Xβ∥22​+λ0​∥β∥0​+λ2​∥β∥22​,

where ∥β∥0\|\beta\|_0∥β∥0​ counts nonzero coefficients. The problem is NP-hard, and exact methods solve it as a mixed integer program by branch-and-bound (Bertsimas, King, Mazumder 2016). The speed of branch-and-bound is governed by two things: how tight the continuous relaxation at each node is, and how cheaply that relaxation can be solved.

Hazimeh, Mazumder and Saab (arXiv:2004.06152v2; Mathematical Programming 2022) build a branch-and-bound solver whose node relaxations are solved by first-order methods rather than by a conic interior-point solver. Their starting point is the perspective formulation, a standard device for strengthening relaxations of mixed integer programs with indicator variables (Frangioni, Gentile 2006; Günlük, Linderoth 2010). Theorem 1 of the paper shows that the interval relaxation of this formulation is a box-constrained least squares problem with a separable penalty in β\betaβ alone. This mission formalizes Theorem 1.

Timeline. Owen (2007) introduced the reverse Huber penalty as a hybrid of lasso and ridge. Dong, Chen, Linderoth (2015) showed that the interval relaxation of the perspective formulation without a Big-M bound reduces to least squares with a reverse Huber penalty. Hazimeh, Mazumder and Saab (2020–2021) added the Big-M constraint and obtained Theorem 1, with a second regime in which the penalty becomes ℓ1\ell_1ℓ1​.

Setting

Fix X∈Rn×pX\in\mathbb R^{n\times p}X∈Rn×p, y∈Rny\in\mathbb R^ny∈Rn, λ0>0\lambda_0>0λ0​>0, λ2>0\lambda_2>0λ2​>0 and M>0M>0M>0, and write [p]={1,…,p}[p]=\{1,\dots,p\}[p]={1,…,p}. The perspective formulation PR(M)\mathrm{PR}(M)PR(M) is problem (3) of the paper:

min⁡β,z,s 12∥y−Xβ∥22+λ0∑i∈[p]zi+λ2∑i∈[p]sis.t.βi2≤sizi,  −Mzi≤βi≤Mzi,  zi∈{0,1},  si≥0.\min_{\beta,z,s}\ \tfrac12\|y-X\beta\|_2^2+\lambda_0\sum_{i\in[p]}z_i+\lambda_2\sum_{i\in[p]}s_i \quad\text{s.t.}\quad \beta_i^2\le s_iz_i,\ \ -Mz_i\le\beta_i\le Mz_i,\ \ z_i\in\{0,1\},\ \ s_i\ge0 .β,z,smin​ 21​∥y−Xβ∥22​+λ0​i∈[p]∑​zi​+λ2​i∈[p]∑​si​s.t.βi2​≤si​zi​,  −Mzi​≤βi​≤Mzi​,  zi​∈{0,1},  si​≥0.

Here ziz_izi​ indicates whether βi\beta_iβi​ may be nonzero, sis_isi​ stands in for βi2\beta_i^2βi2​ through the rotated second-order cone constraint βi2≤sizi\beta_i^2\le s_iz_iβi2​≤si​zi​, and MMM bounds ∣βi∣|\beta_i|∣βi​∣. The interval relaxation replaces zi∈{0,1}z_i\in\{0,1\}zi​∈{0,1} with zi∈[0,1]z_i\in[0,1]zi​∈[0,1].

The reverse Huber penalty (4) is B(t)=∣t∣\mathcal B(t)=|t|B(t)=∣t∣ for ∣t∣≤1|t|\le1∣t∣≤1 and B(t)=(t2+1)/2\mathcal B(t)=(t^2+1)/2B(t)=(t2+1)/2 for ∣t∣≥1|t|\ge1∣t∣≥1. Put

ψ1(b;λ0,λ2)=2λ0 B(bλ2/λ0),ψ2(b;λ0,λ2,M)=(λ0M+λ2M)∣b∣,\psi_1(b;\lambda_0,\lambda_2)=2\lambda_0\,\mathcal B\big(b\sqrt{\lambda_2/\lambda_0}\big),\qquad \psi_2(b;\lambda_0,\lambda_2,M)=\Big(\frac{\lambda_0}{M}+\lambda_2M\Big)|b|,ψ1​(b;λ0​,λ2​)=2λ0​B(bλ2​/λ0​​),ψ2​(b;λ0​,λ2​,M)=(Mλ0​​+λ2​M)∣b∣,

and let ψ=ψ1\psi=\psi_1ψ=ψ1​ if λ0/λ2≤M\sqrt{\lambda_0/\lambda_2}\le Mλ0​/λ2​​≤M and ψ=ψ2\psi=\psi_2ψ=ψ2​ if λ0/λ2>M\sqrt{\lambda_0/\lambda_2}>Mλ0​/λ2​​>M. The reduced relaxation (5) is

min⁡β∈Rp F(β):=12∥y−Xβ∥22+∑i∈[p]ψ(βi;λ0,λ2,M)s.t.∥β∥∞≤M,\min_{\beta\in\mathbb R^p}\ F(\beta):=\tfrac12\|y-X\beta\|_2^2+\sum_{i\in[p]}\psi(\beta_i;\lambda_0,\lambda_2,M)\quad\text{s.t.}\quad\|\beta\|_\infty\le M ,β∈Rpmin​ F(β):=21​∥y−Xβ∥22​+i∈[p]∑​ψ(βi​;λ0​,λ2​,M)s.t.∥β∥∞​≤M,

with optimal value VPR(M)V_{\mathrm{PR}(M)}VPR(M)​. For one coordinate bbb, ω(b;λ0,λ2,M)\omega(b;\lambda_0,\lambda_2,M)ω(b;λ0​,λ2​,M) is the minimum of λ0z+λ2s\lambda_0z+\lambda_2sλ0​z+λ2​s over b2≤szb^2\le szb2≤sz, −Mz≤b≤Mz-Mz\le b\le Mz−Mz≤b≤Mz, z∈[0,1]z\in[0,1]z∈[0,1], s≥0s\ge0s≥0.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 1 (Reduced Relaxation), p. 6

The interval relaxation of (3) is equivalent to (5):

∃ (z,s): (β,z,s) feasible  ⟺  ∥β∥∞≤M,min⁡z,s{12∥y−Xβ∥22+λ0∑izi+λ2∑isi}=F(β)  (∥β∥∞≤M),\exists\,(z,s):\ (\beta,z,s)\ \text{feasible}\iff\|\beta\|_\infty\le M,\qquad \min_{z,s}\Big\{\tfrac12\|y-X\beta\|_2^2+\lambda_0\textstyle\sum_i z_i+\lambda_2\sum_i s_i\Big\}=F(\beta)\ \ (\|\beta\|_\infty\le M),∃(z,s): (β,z,s) feasible⟺∥β∥∞​≤M,z,smin​{21​∥y−Xβ∥22​+λ0​∑i​zi​+λ2​∑i​si​}=F(β)  (∥β∥∞​≤M),

and both problems attain the common optimal value VPR(M)V_{\mathrm{PR}(M)}VPR(M)​.

Milestones (proof of Theorem 1, p. 28)

  1. Reduction to (36). For ∣b∣≤M|b|\le M∣b∣≤M, the smallest feasible zzz is z^=max⁡{b2/s,∣b∣/M}\hat z=\max\{b^2/s,|b|/M\}z^=max{b2/s,∣b∣/M}, so
ω(b;λ0,λ2,M)=min⁡s≥b2max⁡{λ0b2s+λ2s, λ0∣b∣M+λ2s}.\omega(b;\lambda_0,\lambda_2,M)=\min_{s\ge b^2}\max\Big\{\lambda_0\tfrac{b^2}{s}+\lambda_2s,\ \lambda_0\tfrac{|b|}{M}+\lambda_2s\Big\}.ω(b;λ0​,λ2​,M)=s≥b2min​max{λ0​sb2​+λ2​s, λ0​M∣b∣​+λ2​s}.
  1. Case I. If λ0/λ2≤M\sqrt{\lambda_0/\lambda_2}\le Mλ0​/λ2​​≤M and ∣b∣≤M|b|\le M∣b∣≤M, then ω(b;λ0,λ2,M)=2λ0B(bλ2/λ0)\omega(b;\lambda_0,\lambda_2,M)=2\lambda_0\mathcal B(b\sqrt{\lambda_2/\lambda_0})ω(b;λ0​,λ2​,M)=2λ0​B(bλ2​/λ0​​).
  2. Case II. If λ0/λ2>M\sqrt{\lambda_0/\lambda_2}>Mλ0​/λ2​​>M and ∣b∣≤M|b|\le M∣b∣≤M, then ω(b;λ0,λ2,M)=(λ0/M+λ2M)∣b∣\omega(b;\lambda_0,\lambda_2,M)=(\lambda_0/M+\lambda_2M)|b|ω(b;λ0​,λ2​,M)=(λ0​/M+λ2​M)∣b∣.

Significance

The result. Theorem 1 removes the 2p2p2p auxiliary variables z,sz,sz,s and all conic constraints from the node relaxation. What remains is a composite problem, a smooth least squares loss plus a separable, convex penalty under a box constraint, to which coordinate descent and proximal methods apply directly. The paper's solver, its active-set strategy, and the dual bounds of its Section 3 are all built on (5). The theorem also exposes a regime change: when λ0/λ2>M\sqrt{\lambda_0/\lambda_2}>Mλ0​/λ2​​>M, the ridge term of the perspective formulation disappears from the relaxation and the penalty is pure ℓ1\ell_1ℓ1​. Propositions 1 and 2 of the paper, which compare the strengths of the perspective, Big-M and PR(∞)\mathrm{PR}(\infty)PR(∞) relaxations, use this reduced form.

Formalizing it. The result is proved in the paper (Appendix A) by a coordinatewise argument. To our knowledge it has no machine-checked proof. Formalizing it gives a verified bridge from the conic mixed integer formulation to the penalized form that later results of the paper use, and a checked case analysis at the regime boundary λ0/λ2=M\sqrt{\lambda_0/\lambda_2}=Mλ0​/λ2​​=M, where the two formulas must agree with the stated tie-breaking.

Difficulty

The obvious approach, "minimize over zzz and sss coordinate by coordinate", is correct in outline, but each step hides a boundary case. The rotated cone constraint βi2≤sizi\beta_i^2\le s_iz_iβi2​≤si​zi​ degenerates at si=0s_i=0si​=0 or zi=0z_i=0zi​=0, where βi2/si\beta_i^2/s_iβi2​/si​ is undefined, and the paper's convention for βi=si=0\beta_i=s_i=0βi​=si​=0 must be handled. The one-variable problem (36) is a minimum of a pointwise maximum of two functions of sss, one convex and decreasing then increasing, the other increasing. Its minimizer lies either in the interior of the region where the first term dominates or on the crossover s=∣b∣Ms=|b|Ms=∣b∣M, depending on the regime. The paper's proof describes the cases loosely: it optimizes the Case I term without imposing the side condition that Case I attains the maximum. A complete argument must prove the lower bound over all feasible sss, not just evaluate at a candidate. Finally, the minimum over (z,s)∈R2p(z,s)\in\mathbb R^{2p}(z,s)∈R2p must be shown to split into a sum of coordinate minima, each attained.

Formalization scope

Data are X : Matrix (Fin n) (Fin p) ℝ, y : Fin n → ℝ, and reals lam0 lam2 M with 0 < lam0, 0 < lam2, 0 < M; the paper's [p][p][p] is Fin p. The squared norm ∥y−Xβ∥22\|y-X\beta\|_2^2∥y−Xβ∥22​ is the explicit sum ∑r(yr−(Xβ)r)2\sum_r(y_r-(X\beta)_r)^2∑r​(yr​−(Xβ)r​)2, and ∥β∥∞≤M\|\beta\|_\infty\le M∥β∥∞​≤M is ∣βi∣≤M|\beta_i|\le M∣βi​∣≤M for all iii. The cone constraint is kept in product form βi2≤sizi\beta_i^2\le s_iz_iβi2​≤si​zi​. In z^\hat zz^ and (36), Lean's b2/0=0b^2/0=0b2/0=0 coincides with the paper's convention βi2/si=0\beta_i^2/s_i=0βi2​/si​=0 for βi=si=0\beta_i=s_i=0βi​=si​=0. Every "min" is stated with IsLeast (membership plus lower bound), so attainment is part of each statement. VPR(M)V_{\mathrm{PR}(M)}VPR(M)​ is defined as a real infimum over the box, and Theorem 1 asserts that this infimum is attained by both problems. No normalization of XXX or yyy is assumed; the paper's unit-norm assumption starts in Section 3. The paper writes no O(⋅)O(\cdot)O(⋅) in these results, so there are no constants to instantiate.

A goal stating only one inequality (that F(β)F(\beta)F(β) is achieved by some (z,s)(z,s)(z,s), or that it bounds the relaxation from below), or a goal over zi∈{0,1}z_i\in\{0,1\}zi​∈{0,1}, would not be Theorem 1. The IsLeast form rules out both. The goal uses ψ\psiψ with both regimes.

A complete development needs: a two-variable convexity argument for λ0b2/s+λ2s\lambda_0b^2/s+\lambda_2sλ0​b2/s+λ2​s on s>0s>0s>0; a lemma that the infimum of a separable objective over a product of feasible sets is the sum of the coordinate infima; and continuity of FFF with compactness of the box to obtain an optimal β\betaβ. The coordinate lemmas and the definition of the reverse Huber penalty are reusable in the companion missions on relaxation strength and Lagrangian duality. Contributions to any milestone, or an alternative proof of the goal, are welcome.

Selected references

  • H. Hazimeh, R. Mazumder, A. Saab, Sparse Regression at Scale: Branch-and-Bound rooted in First-Order Optimization, arXiv:2004.06152v2 (2021); Mathematical Programming (2022). https://arxiv.org/abs/2004.06152v2
  • A. Frangioni, C. Gentile, Perspective cuts for a class of convex 0–1 mixed integer programs, Mathematical Programming 106(2), 225–236, 2006. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10107-005-0594-3
  • O. Günlük, J. Linderoth, Perspective reformulations of mixed integer nonlinear programs with indicator variables, Mathematical Programming 124(1–2), 183–205, 2010. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10107-010-0360-z
  • H. Dong, K. Chen, J. Linderoth, Regularization vs. Relaxation: A conic optimization perspective of statistical variable selection, arXiv:1510.06083, 2015. https://arxiv.org/abs/1510.06083
  • A. B. Owen, A robust hybrid of lasso and ridge regression, Contemporary Mathematics 443, 59–72, 2007. https://doi.org/10.1090/conm/443/08555
  • D. Bertsimas, A. King, R. Mazumder, Best subset selection via a modern optimization lens, Annals of Statistics 44(2), 813–852, 2016. https://doi.org/10.1214/15-AOS1388
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Optimal TransportOptimizationProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

Distributionally Robust Chance-Constrained Programs with Right-Hand Side Uncertainty under Wasserstein Ambiguity: The Reduced Quantile-Strengthened MIP (20) Is an Exact Reformulation of DR-CCPResearch Paper

Motivation

A chance-constrained program chooses a decision xxx so that a random vector ξ\xiξ falls outside a decision-dependent safety set S(x)\mathcal S(x)S(x) with probability at most ϵ\epsilonϵ. Chance constraints are a standard model for reliability requirements in power systems, supply chains and transportation, where a plan must survive random demand or supply with high probability. In practice the distribution of ξ\xiξ is known only through samples ξ1,…,ξN\xi_1, \dots, \xi_Nξ1​,…,ξN​, and the sample average approximation (SAA) that replaces it by the empirical distribution PN\mathbb P_NPN​ is sensitive to the particular sample.

Distributionally robust chance constraints regularize SAA by requiring the probability bound for every distribution within Wasserstein distance θ\thetaθ of PN\mathbb P_NPN​. Chen, Kuhn and Wiesemann (arXiv:1809.00210) and Xie (doi:10.1007/s10107-019-01445-5) showed that, for safety sets defined by linear inequalities, the resulting program (DR-CCP) is a mixed-integer linear program with a big-M constant. These big-M formulations are hard for solvers to close when θ\thetaθ is small. Ho-Nguyen, Kılınç-Karzan, Küçükyavuz and Lee (doi:10.1007/s10107-020-01605-y) connect the formulation to the mixing sets of SAA and to robust 0–1 programming, and derive a smaller and tighter formulation that is still exact.

Setting

The random vector lives in RK\mathbb R^KRK with an arbitrary norm ∥⋅∥\|\cdot\|∥⋅∥; in the formalization it is a finite-dimensional real normed space EEE. The dual norm of a linear functional bbb is ∥b∥∗=sup⁡∥ξ∥≤1b⊤ξ\|b\|_* = \sup_{\|\xi\| \le 1} b^\top \xi∥b∥∗​=sup∥ξ∥≤1​b⊤ξ. The decision xxx ranges over a set X⊆RL\mathcal X \subseteq \mathbb R^LX⊆RL.

The 1-Wasserstein distance between distributions P,P′\mathbb P, \mathbb P'P,P′ is the infimum of E∥ξ−ξ′∥\mathbb E\|\xi - \xi'\|E∥ξ−ξ′∥ over couplings of P\mathbb PP and P′\mathbb P'P′. The ambiguity set FN(θ)\mathcal F_N(\theta)FN​(θ) is the set of distributions within distance θ\thetaθ of PN=1N∑iδξi\mathbb P_N = \frac1N \sum_{i} \delta_{\xi_i}PN​=N1​∑i​δξi​​. The feasible region of (DR-CCP) is

XDR(S)={x∈X:sup⁡P∈FN(θ)P[ξ∉S(x)]≤ϵ}.\mathcal X_{\mathrm{DR}}(\mathcal S) = \Big\{x \in \mathcal X : \sup_{\mathbb P \in \mathcal F_N(\theta)} \mathbb P[\xi \notin \mathcal S(x)] \le \epsilon\Big\}.XDR​(S)={x∈X:P∈FN​(θ)sup​P[ξ∈/S(x)]≤ϵ}.

Throughout, ϵ∈(0,1)\epsilon \in (0,1)ϵ∈(0,1) and θ>0\theta > 0θ>0 are fixed.

The paper studies joint chance constraints with right-hand side uncertainty: for p∈[P]p \in [P]p∈[P] there are ap∈RLa_p \in \mathbb R^Lap​∈RL, bpb_pbp​ and dp∈Rd_p \in \mathbb Rdp​∈R, and

S(x)={ξ:bp⊤ξ+dp−ap⊤x>0, p∈[P]}.\mathcal S(x) = \{\xi : b_p^\top \xi + d_p - a_p^\top x > 0,\ p \in [P]\}.S(x)={ξ:bp⊤​ξ+dp​−ap⊤​x>0, p∈[P]}.

Write gi,p(x)=(bp⊤ξi+dp−ap⊤x)/∥bp∥∗g_{i,p}(x) = (b_p^\top\xi_i + d_p - a_p^\top x)/\|b_p\|_*gi,p​(x)=(bp⊤​ξi​+dp​−ap⊤​x)/∥bp​∥∗​ and k=⌊ϵN⌋k = \lfloor \epsilon N \rfloork=⌊ϵN⌋. Let qpq_pqp​ be the (k+1)(k+1)(k+1)-th largest value among {−bp⊤ξi}i∈[N]\{-b_p^\top\xi_i\}_{i\in[N]}{−bp⊤​ξi​}i∈[N]​, and let [N]p={i:−bp⊤ξi>qp}[N]_p = \{i : -b_p^\top \xi_i > q_p\}[N]p​={i:−bp⊤​ξi​>qp​}.

The big-M formulation (5) of Chen et al. uses binaries z∈{0,1}Nz \in \{0,1\}^Nz∈{0,1}N, slacks r≥0r \ge 0r≥0 and a scalar t≥0t \ge 0t≥0 with

ϵt≥θ+1N∑iri,M(1−zi)≥t−ri,gi,p(x)+Mzi≥t−ri.\epsilon t \ge \theta + \tfrac1N \textstyle\sum_i r_i,\qquad M(1 - z_i) \ge t - r_i,\qquad g_{i,p}(x) + M z_i \ge t - r_i.ϵt≥θ+N1​∑i​ri​,M(1−zi​)≥t−ri​,gi,p​(x)+Mzi​≥t−ri​.

The paper's improved formulation (20) keeps the first two families, adds the knapsack constraint ∑izi≤k\sum_i z_i \le k∑i​zi​≤k, replaces MMM in the third family by hi,p=(−bp⊤ξi−qp)/∥bp∥∗h_{i,p} = (-b_p^\top\xi_i - q_p)/\|b_p\|_*hi,p​=(−bp⊤​ξi​−qp​)/∥bp​∥∗​, imposes it only for i∈[N]pi \in [N]_pi∈[N]p​, and adds (−qp+dp−ap⊤x)/∥bp∥∗≥t(-q_p + d_p - a_p^\top x)/\|b_p\|_* \ge t(−qp​+dp​−ap⊤​x)/∥bp​∥∗​≥t for every ppp.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3 (p. 655)

XDR(S)={x∈X:∃ (z,r,t) satisfying (20b)–(20d)}.\mathcal X_{\mathrm{DR}}(\mathcal S) = \{x \in \mathcal X : \exists\,(z, r, t) \text{ satisfying (20b)–(20d)}\}.XDR​(S)={x∈X:∃(z,r,t) satisfying (20b)–(20d)}.

The goal states equality of feasible sets of xxx. Because the objective c⊤xc^\top xc⊤x depends on xxx alone, this is the paper's "exact reformulation".

Milestones, in attack order

  1. (4b), p. 646: dist⁡(ξ,S(x))=max⁡{0,min⁡p(bp⊤ξ+dp−ap⊤x)/∥bp∥∗}\operatorname{dist}(\xi, \mathcal S(x)) = \max\{0, \min_p (b_p^\top\xi + d_p - a_p^\top x)/\|b_p\|_*\}dist(ξ,S(x))=max{0,minp​(bp⊤​ξ+dp​−ap⊤​x)/∥bp​∥∗​}, where dist⁡(ξ,S)=inf⁡{∥ξ−ξ′∥:ξ′∉S}\operatorname{dist}(\xi, \mathcal S) = \inf\{\|\xi - \xi'\| : \xi' \notin \mathcal S\}dist(ξ,S)=inf{∥ξ−ξ′∥:ξ′∈/S} is (1).
  2. (3), p. 645: for open S(x)\mathcal S(x)S(x), XDR(S)\mathcal X_{\mathrm{DR}}(\mathcal S)XDR​(S) is the set of x∈Xx \in \mathcal Xx∈X admitting t≥0t \ge 0t≥0, r≥0r \ge 0r≥0 with dist⁡(ξi,S(x))≥t−ri\operatorname{dist}(\xi_i, \mathcal S(x)) \ge t - r_idist(ξi​,S(x))≥t−ri​ and ϵt≥θ+1N∑iri\epsilon t \ge \theta + \frac1N\sum_i r_iϵt≥θ+N1​∑i​ri​.
  3. (6), p. 646: XDR(S)={x∈X:(5b)–(5e)}\mathcal X_{\mathrm{DR}}(\mathcal S) = \{x \in \mathcal X : \text{(5b)–(5e)}\}XDR​(S)={x∈X:(5b)–(5e)}.
  4. Theorem 1, p. 648: adding ∑izi≤k\sum_i z_i \le k∑i​zi​≤k and gi,p(x)+Mzi≥0g_{i,p}(x) + M z_i \ge 0gi,p​(x)+Mzi​≥0 to (5) keeps it exact.
  5. Theorem 2, p. 651: replacing MMM in (5e) by hi,ph_{i,p}hi,p​, with the knapsack constraint, keeps it exact.
  6. Lemma 1, p. 653: for x∈XDR(S)x \in \mathcal X_{\mathrm{DR}}(\mathcal S)x∈XDR​(S), ttt may be taken equal to the (k+1)(k+1)(k+1)-th smallest of the distances dist⁡(ξi,S(x))\operatorname{dist}(\xi_i, \mathcal S(x))dist(ξi​,S(x)).
  7. Proposition 1, p. 654: for x∈XDR(S)x \in \mathcal X_{\mathrm{DR}}(\mathcal S)x∈XDR​(S), some solution of (17) also satisfies (−qp+dp−ap⊤x)/∥bp∥∗−t≥0(-q_p + d_p - a_p^\top x)/\|b_p\|_* - t \ge 0(−qp​+dp​−ap⊤​x)/∥bp​∥∗​−t≥0 for every ppp.

Milestones 2 and 3 are results of Chen, Kuhn and Wiesemann that this paper cites and uses, not results it proves.

Significance

Theorem 3 says that the scenario-wise big-M rows of the Wasserstein chance constraint can be replaced by at most ⌊ϵN⌋\lfloor\epsilon N\rfloor⌊ϵN⌋ rows per ppp, with coefficients computed from the data. Remark 2 of the paper counts at least ((1−ϵ)N−1)P((1-\epsilon)N - 1)P((1−ϵ)N−1)P fewer rows than (17). The reduced form exposes a robust 0–1 substructure, and the paper adapts Atamtürk's valid inequalities for it. Its computational study reports order-of-magnitude speed-ups on stochastic transportation problems.

The results are proved on paper; none is machine-checked. The formalization would give a verified chain from the Wasserstein worst-case probability to a finite mixed-integer system. Milestone (3), the dual reformulation, is reusable for any distributionally robust chance constraint over a 1-Wasserstein ball around an empirical distribution, and (4b) for any polyhedral safety set. A second formalization layer would verify the order-statistic arguments (Lemma 1, Proposition 1) used throughout the quantile-strengthening literature.

Difficulty

The deterministic parts — Theorems 1–3 given (3) and (4b) — are finite case analyses on zi∈{0,1}z_i \in \{0,1\}zi​∈{0,1}, but each step relies on order statistics of the sample with ties. Lemma 1 rests on the paper's "without loss of generality, sort the distances", and a formal proof must handle ties and the floor ⌊ϵN⌋\lfloor\epsilon N\rfloor⌊ϵN⌋ exactly. The paper's proof of Theorem 2 argues "at optimality"; for a statement about feasible sets that argument has to be replaced by an explicit choice of zzz.

The hard step is (3). It exchanges a supremum over all Borel probability measures in a Wasserstein ball for a scalar system. The naive attempt, which perturbs PN\mathbb P_NPN​ by moving mass from the samples to the nearest unsafe points, proves only one inclusion. The other needs strong duality for worst-case probabilities over transport balls, together with attainment of the dual infimum, which uses θ>0\theta > 0θ>0.

Formalization scope

  • The ξ-space is a type E with [NormedAddCommGroup E] [NormedSpace ℝ E] [FiniteDimensional ℝ E] and its Borel σ-algebra. The norm is arbitrary, not the sup norm of Fin K → ℝ.
  • Each bpb_pbp​ is a continuous linear functional (StrongDual ℝ E), so ∥bp∥∗\|b_p\|_*∥bp​∥∗​ is its operator norm.
  • Decisions are Fin L → ℝ, with ap⊤xa_p^\top xap⊤​x written a p ⬝ᵥ x. Indices are 0-based.
  • The worst-case probability is the published ModelRiskOT.WorstProb.worstProb with cost ∥u−v∥\|u - v\|∥u−v∥, valued in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞], around the published WassersteinDRO.Duality.empiricalDistribution.
  • The distance (1) is Metric.infDist.
  • Binaries are reals with zi∈{0,1}z_i \in \{0,1\}zi​∈{0,1}.
  • Order statistics sort the multiset of values, so ties count with multiplicity.

Standing assumptions and pins in every statement:

  • N≥1N \ge 1N≥1, ϵ∈(0,1)\epsilon \in (0,1)ϵ∈(0,1) and θ>0\theta > 0θ>0 (p. 645);
  • P≥1P \ge 1P≥1 and bp≠0b_p \neq 0bp​=0, which (4) needs;
  • for every statement involving MMM, one bound ∣bp⊤ξi+dp−ap⊤x∣/∥bp∥∗≤M|b_p^\top\xi_i + d_p - a_p^\top x|/\|b_p\|_* \le M∣bp⊤​ξi​+dp​−ap⊤​x∣/∥bp​∥∗​≤M over x∈Xx \in \mathcal Xx∈X and all i,pi, pi,p. This is Remark 1's (10), taken uniform in iii. It replaces the compactness of X\mathcal XX assumed on p. 642, which is not assumed;
  • for the general-S\mathcal SS milestone (3), S(x)\mathcal S(x)S(x) open with nonempty complement.

In (17b), the printed "(5b)–(5d) and (5c)" is read as "(5b)–(5d) and (8c)", following the proof of Theorem 2 and (20b).

Several trivializing formalizations are ruled out:

  • an empty or degenerate ball: N≥1N \ge 1N≥1 makes PN\mathbb P_NPN​ a probability measure inside its own ball;
  • a junk distance: the unsafe set is nonempty under the pins, so infDist never sees the empty set;
  • a junk order statistic: the rank kkk is below NNN;
  • a fixed norm;
  • a relaxation of zzz to [0,1][0,1][0,1], which is a different theorem.

Welcome contributions:

  • the 1-Wasserstein duality for indicator losses on empirical distributions;
  • order-statistic lemmas for the multiset sort;
  • the distance from a point to the complement of an open polyhedron in a normed space.

Selected references

  • N. Ho-Nguyen, F. Kılınç-Karzan, S. Küçükyavuz, D. Lee, Distributionally robust chance-constrained programs with right-hand side uncertainty under Wasserstein ambiguity, Mathematical Programming Ser. B 196 (2022) 641–672. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10107-020-01605-y
  • Z. Chen, D. Kuhn, W. Wiesemann, Data-driven chance constrained programs over Wasserstein balls, Operations Research (2024); preprint 2018. https://arxiv.org/abs/1809.00210
  • W. Xie, On distributionally robust chance constrained programs with Wasserstein distance, Mathematical Programming 186 (2021) 115–155. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10107-019-01445-5
  • J. Blanchet, K. Murthy, Quantifying distributional model risk via optimal transport, Mathematics of Operations Research 44 (2019) 565–600. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.2018.0936
  • A. Atamtürk, Strong formulations of robust mixed 0–1 programming, Mathematical Programming 108 (2006) 235–250. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10107-006-0709-5
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Optimal TransportOptimizationProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

Optimal Transport-Based Distributionally Robust Optimization: Structural Properties and Iterative Schemes 5: Worst-Case Displacements √δ G_δ Grow Monotonically in δ Along Straight LinesResearch Paper

Why radius sensitivity matters

A distributionally robust decision evaluates a rule against every data distribution within a specified transport budget of a baseline law. The budget is a modeling choice: increasing it expresses more uncertainty about the data. A robust objective value can increase with that budget, but the value alone does not describe how the adverse distribution changes. For a fixed linear decision, Blanchet, Murthy, and Zhang identify the worst-case distribution and ask what happens to each observation as the budget increases. Their Theorem 7 gives a sample-wise answer in a small-radius regime: adverse observations move along straight lines, and their distance from the original observations grows monotonically.

This matters when a robust solution is interpreted through its adverse scenarios. The result says that two nearby ambiguity budgets do not produce unrelated worst-case data sets. They produce a coherent family of transported observations whose directions are determined by the sign of the loss derivative. The theorem is a structural property of an optimal-transport ambiguity set, beyond a bound on its optimal value. It appears in a paper that also develops dual formulas and iterative optimization schemes for the same model Blanchet, Murthy, and Zhang, 2022.

Model and notation

Let XXX take values in Rd\mathbb R^dRd with baseline law P0P_0P0​. A decision β\betaβ belongs to a convex set B⊆RdB\subseteq\mathbb R^dB⊆Rd and incurs loss ℓ(β⊤X)\ell(\beta^\top X)ℓ(β⊤X). At each source point xxx, a positive-definite matrix A(x)A(x)A(x) defines the transport cost

c(x,x′)=(x−x′)⊤A(x)(x−x′).c(x,x')=(x-x')^\top A(x)(x-x').c(x,x′)=(x−x′)⊤A(x)(x−x′).

The matrix may depend on xxx, so movement can be cheaper in different directions and at different observations. The model requires lower semicontinuity of ccc and almost-sure lower and upper spectral bounds for A(x)A(x)A(x). A distribution PPP is within the ambiguity ball of radius δ>0\delta>0δ>0 when it can be coupled with P0P_0P0​ at expected cost at most δ\deltaδ. The worst-case objective is the supremum of EP[ℓ(β⊤X)]E_P[\ell(\beta^\top X)]EP​[ℓ(β⊤X)] over that ball. In Lean, the equivalent coupling formulation records a joint law π\piπ with first marginal P0P_0P0​, second marginal PPP, and cost at most δ\deltaδ.

The paper reduces the worst-case calculation to a dual objective fδ(β,λ)f_\delta(\beta,\lambda)fδ​(β,λ), where λ≥0\lambda\ge0λ≥0 prices the transport budget. Its pointwise term ℓrob(β,λ;x)\ell_{\rm rob}(\beta,\lambda;x)ℓrob​(β,λ;x) is the supremum over a scalar γ\gammaγ of the function F(γ,β,λ;x)F(\gamma,\beta,\lambda;x)F(γ,β,λ;x) in display (7). The set of maximizing scalars is Γ∗(β,λ;x)\Gamma^*(\beta,\lambda;x)Γ∗(β,λ;x). A scalar maximizer Gδ(x)G_\delta(x)Gδ​(x) produces a transported observation

Xδ∗=x+δ Gδ(x)A(x)−1β.X^*_\delta=x+\sqrt\delta\,G_\delta(x)A(x)^{-1}\beta.Xδ∗​=x+δ​Gδ​(x)A(x)−1β.

Assumptions 2–4 require a convex loss with controlled growth, a fourth moment of P0P_0P0​, bounded second derivatives of the loss, a nondegenerate loss derivative, and compactness of BBB. The statement here also uses Assumption 5, local strong convexity with a positive-probability nondegeneracy condition. The paper’s proof of Theorem 7 uses that condition through its small-radius strong-convexity result Theorems 4 and 7.

Formalization targets

For each fixed β∈B∖{0}\beta\in B\setminus\{0\}β∈B∖{0}, the goal asserts that there is a common threshold δ1>0\delta_1>0δ1​>0 and a family GδG_\deltaGδ​ such that the law of Xδ∗X^*_\deltaXδ∗​ is the unique worst-case distribution for every 0<δ<δ10<\delta<\delta_10<δ<δ1​. For any pair 0<δ<δ′<δ10<\delta<\delta'<\delta_10<δ<δ′<δ1​, it asserts, P0P_0P0​-almost surely,

0<δ Gδ<δ′ Gδ′if ℓ′(β⊤X)>0,δ′ Gδ′<δ Gδ<0if ℓ′(β⊤X)<0,Gδ=0if ℓ′(β⊤X)=0.\begin{aligned} 0&<\sqrt\delta\,G_\delta<\sqrt{\delta'}\,G_{\delta'} &&\text{if }\ell'(\beta^\top X)>0,\\ \sqrt{\delta'}\,G_{\delta'}&<\sqrt\delta\,G_\delta<0 &&\text{if }\ell'(\beta^\top X)<0,\\ G_\delta&=0 &&\text{if }\ell'(\beta^\top X)=0. \end{aligned}0δ′​Gδ′​Gδ​​<δ​Gδ​<δ′​Gδ′​<δ​Gδ​<0=0​​if ℓ′(β⊤X)>0,if ℓ′(β⊤X)<0,if ℓ′(β⊤X)=0.​

Consequently,

∥Xδ∗−X∥≤∥Xδ′∗−X∥.\|X^*_\delta-X\|\le\|X^*_{\delta'}-X\|.∥Xδ∗​−X∥≤∥Xδ′∗​−X∥.

The goal keeps the uniqueness and primal attainment clauses together with these comparisons. The milestones follow the paper’s prerequisites: the optimizer and curvature bounds of Proposition 9, the unique worst-case law of Theorem 6(e), uniqueness of the dual minimizer at small radius, and the sign of the pointwise maximizer. Each has its own statement so solvers can use it elsewhere.

What the result establishes

The theorem gives a consistent interpretation of changes in the ambiguity radius. If the loss increases locally in the decision direction, an adverse observation moves farther in that direction; if the loss decreases, it moves farther in the opposite direction; at a stationary score it stays put. The corresponding displacement norm is monotone for each radius pair, almost surely. This is stronger than monotonicity of the worst-case objective value: it describes the geometry of a family of optimizers, not only their values.

The paper proves the result in §5.4. The work of this mission is to formalize its hypotheses, optimality claims, and sample-wise inequalities in Lean. The published ModelRiskOT.Duality coupling definitions already give a reusable primal interface; this mission adds the state-dependent quadratic cost, the scalar dual model, its small-radius regions, and the comparative-statics statements. The proof obligations remain open in this draft. Their formalization would also make the dual optimizer bounds and the deterministic transport representation reusable in later optimal-transport DRO developments.

Where the mathematical difficulty sits

The worst-case value being monotone in δ\deltaδ does not force a particular worst-case distribution, or each observation in one, to move monotonically. The theorem needs a unique worst-case law and a coherent choice of pointwise maximizers as δ\deltaδ varies. The scalar maximizer depends on both the radius and the dual price, while the optimal dual price itself changes with the radius. The paper’s small-radius conditions keep this joint variation controlled. Without uniqueness, two optimal laws could differ even at the same radius, and a sample-wise comparison would have no fixed object to compare.

The result also involves several layers of almost-sure reasoning. Spectral bounds on A(x)A(x)A(x) hold only outside a null set; the relevant maximizer and its transported law must be measurable enough to define pushforwards and expectations. These conditions must be carried through the theorem without silently replacing an almost-sure claim by a pointwise one.

Formalization scope

Vectors use EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin d), and the baseline is a Borel probability measure. The decision set is convex and compact and is explicitly nonempty. Assumption 1 gives positive definiteness of A(x)A(x)A(x) everywhere, lower semicontinuity of the cost, and almost-sure uniform spectral bounds. The loss satisfies Assumptions 2–5. The fourth moment in Assumption 2 and the bounds on ℓ′′\ell''ℓ′′ control the integrals used by the dual theory. A positive ambiguity radius is required whenever its square root appears.

The dual terms ℓrob\ell_{\rm rob}ℓrob​ and fδf_\deltafδ​ use extended-real values, since the pointwise supremum can be infinite. The worst-case value is a supremum over feasible couplings, with signed loss integrated using the published extended-real integral. A graph coupling witnesses attainment, and every optimal coupling must have the same second marginal. This ties the family GδG_\deltaGδ​ to the actual worst-case distribution rather than an arbitrary monotone scalar field. Almost-everywhere measurability of GδG_\deltaGδ​ and the transport map is part of the conclusion.

The radius δ\deltaδ varies inside the goal. The threshold δ1\delta_1δ1​ is chosen before any radius pair, and the comparisons are stated almost surely for each pair. The paper prints Theorem 7 under Assumptions 1–4 while referring to δ1\delta_1δ1​ and invoking Theorem 4, which uses Assumption 5; this mission includes Assumption 5 explicitly. It also reads the singleton clause of Theorem 6(e) almost surely, because its threshold is an essential supremum, and uses a non-strict lower curvature bound in Proposition 9(b), as its proof permits. Contributions on the small-radius dual theory, measurable maximizers, primal attainment, and the radius comparisons are all within scope.

Selected references

  • J. Blanchet, K. Murthy, and F. Zhang, Optimal Transport-Based Distributionally Robust Optimization: Structural Properties and Iterative Schemes, Mathematics of Operations Research 47(2), 2022. arXiv:1810.02403v3.
  • J. Blanchet and K. Murthy, Quantifying Distributional Model Risk via Optimal Transport, Mathematics of Operations Research 44(2), 2019. arXiv:1604.01446v2.
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CombinatoricsOptimal TransportOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Computational Optimal Transport VI: On Termination the Auction Algorithm Returns an Assignment Whose Cost Is Within nε of the OptimumTextbook

Motivation

The optimal assignment problem asks for a one-to-one matching of nnn points to nnn objects of least total cost. It is the discrete optimal transport problem between two uniform measures with the same number of atoms, and by the Birkhoff–von Neumann theorem it coincides with the Kantorovich linear program on that instance (Peyré and Cuturi, Computational Optimal Transport, Proposition 2.1). Assignment solvers are therefore the inner routine of exact discrete optimal transport, of matching-based estimators in statistics and of many combinatorial optimization pipelines.

The auction algorithm was introduced by Bertsekas in 1981 (Bertsekas 1981) and refined with ε-scaling by Bertsekas and Eckstein in 1988 (Bertsekas & Eckstein 1988). It is a dual coordinate method with an economic reading: unassigned points bid for objects, prices of contested objects move, and an object changes hands when outbid. Its practical appeal is that each iteration is local and cheap, and that it parallelizes well. Peyré and Cuturi present it in §3.7 of their monograph (pp. 417–422) as an alternative use of the machinery of C-transforms, and as a precursor to the Sinkhorn algorithm of Chapter 4.

Setting

Fix n≥2n\ge 2n≥2, write [ ⁣[n] ⁣]={1,…,n}[\![n]\!]=\{1,\dots,n\}[[n]]={1,…,n}, and let C∈Rn×n\mathbf C\in\mathbb R^{n\times n}C∈Rn×n be a cost matrix: Ci,j\mathbf C_{i,j}Ci,j​ is the cost of assigning point iii to object jjj. A permutation σ\sigmaσ of [ ⁣[n] ⁣][\![n]\!][[n]] is an assignment, of cost ∑iCi,σi\sum_i \mathbf C_{i,\sigma_i}∑i​Ci,σi​​.

A dual vector (price vector) g∈Rn\mathbf g\in\mathbb R^ng∈Rn is indexed by the objects. Its Cˉ\bar{\mathbf C}Cˉ-transform is (gCˉ)i=min⁡jCi,j−gj(\mathbf g^{\bar{\mathbf C}})_i=\min_j \mathbf C_{i,j}-\mathbf g_j(gCˉ)i​=minj​Ci,j​−gj​, the best adjusted cost available to point iii; a pair (f,g)(\mathbf f,\mathbf g)(f,g) is dual feasible if fi+gj≤Ci,j\mathbf f_i+\mathbf g_j\le \mathbf C_{i,j}fi​+gj​≤Ci,j​ for all i,ji,ji,j.

The algorithm maintains a triplet (S,ξ,g)(S,\xi,\mathbf g)(S,ξ,g): a set S⊆[ ⁣[n] ⁣]S\subseteq[\![n]\!]S⊆[[n]] of assigned points, a partial assignment vector ξ\xiξ (an injective map from SSS to [ ⁣[n] ⁣][\![n]\!][[n]]) and a dual vector g\mathbf gg. The state satisfies ε-complementary slackness (ε-CS) if

∀i∈S,Ci,ξi−gξi≤ε+min⁡j(Ci,j−gj).\forall i\in S,\qquad \mathbf C_{i,\xi_i}-\mathbf g_{\xi_i}\le \varepsilon+\min_j\big(\mathbf C_{i,j}-\mathbf g_j\big).∀i∈S,Ci,ξi​​−gξi​​≤ε+jmin​(Ci,j​−gj​).

One iteration picks a point i∉Si\notin Si∈/S, a lowest adjusted cost index ji1∈argmin⁡jCi,j−gjj^1_i\in\operatorname{argmin}_j \mathbf C_{i,j}-\mathbf g_jji1​∈argminj​Ci,j​−gj​ and a second lowest ji2∈argmin⁡j≠ji1Ci,j−gjj^2_i\in\operatorname{argmin}_{j\neq j^1_i}\mathbf C_{i,j}-\mathbf g_jji2​∈argminj=ji1​​Ci,j​−gj​, and performs

gji1←Ci,ji1−(Ci,ji2−gji2)−ε,(3.9)\mathbf g_{j^1_i}\leftarrow \mathbf C_{i,j^1_i}-\big(\mathbf C_{i,j^2_i}-\mathbf g_{j^2_i}\big)-\varepsilon, \tag{3.9}gji1​​←Ci,ji1​​−(Ci,ji2​​−gji2​​)−ε,(3.9)

removes from SSS the point i′i'i′ with ξi′=ji1\xi_{i'}=j^1_iξi′​=ji1​ (if there is one), sets ξi=ji1\xi_i=j^1_iξi​=ji1​ and adds iii to SSS. The algorithm starts from S=∅S=\emptysetS=∅, g=0n\mathbf g=0_ng=0n​, and terminates when S=[ ⁣[n] ⁣]S=[\![n]\!]S=[[n]].

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 3.9 (p. 422)

For every ε>0\varepsilon>0ε>0 and every run of the algorithm that terminates, the final ξ\xiξ is a permutation and

∑iCi,ξi  ≤  ∑iCi,σi+nεfor every permutation σ.\sum_i \mathbf C_{i,\xi_i}\;\le\;\sum_i \mathbf C_{i,\sigma_i}+n\varepsilon\qquad\text{for every permutation }\sigma.i∑​Ci,ξi​​≤i∑​Ci,σi​​+nεfor every permutation σ.

The goal fixes no particular tie-breaking rule and no order in which unassigned points bid: it holds for all of them.

Milestones

  1. (3.8), p. 419. If Ci,σi−gσi=min⁡jCi,j−gj\mathbf C_{i,\sigma_i}-\mathbf g_{\sigma_i}=\min_j \mathbf C_{i,j}-\mathbf g_jCi,σi​​−gσi​​=minj​Ci,j​−gj​ for every iii, then σ\sigmaσ is an optimal assignment and (gCˉ,g)(\mathbf g^{\bar{\mathbf C}},\mathbf g)(gCˉ,g) is an optimal dual pair.
  2. Properties (b)–(c), pp. 419–420. At each iteration the size of SSS does not decrease, some price decreases by at least ε\varepsilonε, and no price increases.
  3. Proposition 3.7, p. 420. Every state of every run satisfies ε-CS.

Companion: Proposition 3.8 (p. 421), corrected

For C≥0\mathbf C\ge 0C≥0, every run has at most n(⌊∥C∥∞/ε⌋+1)n\big(\lfloor\|\mathbf C\|_\infty/\varepsilon\rfloor+1\big)n(⌊∥C∥∞​/ε⌋+1) iterations. This is the termination statement; the goal does not depend on it.

Significance

Proposition 3.9 is the accuracy guarantee of the auction algorithm. With integer costs and ε<1/n\varepsilon<1/nε<1/n it yields an exactly optimal assignment, which is how the algorithm is used as an exact solver; combined with ε-scaling it gives the complexity bounds quoted in Remark 3.3. The argument is also the template for every ε-relaxed primal–dual method: an approximate optimality certificate maintained by local moves, turned into a global suboptimality bound by weak duality.

The results are classical and proved in the book and in Bertsekas's monographs; they are not open. What this mission adds is a machine-checked account of the algorithm with all of its nondeterminism (ties in the argmins, the order of bidders) quantified explicitly, together with the corrected iteration bound. To the best of the mission's prior-art search, no Lean formalization of the auction algorithm exists on the platform or in Mathlib, which has the assignment problem only implicitly (through permutations and doubly stochastic matrices).

Difficulty

The obvious argument for the goal sums the ε-CS inequality over iii and compares with an arbitrary permutation σ\sigmaσ. The sum telescopes only if the final ξ\xiξ is a bijection, so the proof must carry, through every iteration, the invariant that ξ\xiξ is injective on SSS, and this invariant interacts with the removal of the displaced point in step 2: the set update has to remove exactly the point holding ji1j^1_iji1​, which needs injectivity at the previous step.

Preserving ε-CS for the points that are not bidding relies on prices only ever decreasing, which in turn needs ε≥0\varepsilon\ge 0ε≥0 and the specific form of (3.9); preserving it for the bidder needs the second-best index ji2j^2_iji2​ to realize the minimum over j≠ji1j\neq j^1_ij=ji1​, including in the presence of ties. The printed termination bound is false (see below), so the companion requires reconstructing the counting argument: an object that is still unassigned has never been bid on and keeps price 000, which caps the number of bids on any other object.

Formalization scope

  • [ ⁣[n] ⁣][\![n]\!][[n]] is Fin n; C\mathbf CC is a Matrix (Fin n) (Fin n) ℝ; prices are Fin n → ℝ; min⁡j\min_jminj​ is the infimum over the finite nonempty index set.
  • A state is a structure with fields S : Finset (Fin n), ξ : Fin n → Fin n and g : Fin n → ℝ. Only the values of ξ on S are meaningful; injectivity on S is a property to be proved, not a field.
  • An iteration is a relation between consecutive states (AuctionStep), with the choice of bidder, of ji1j^1_iji1​ and of ji2j^2_iji2​ existential. A run of TTT iterations is a sequence of states starting from S=∅S=\emptysetS=∅, g=0\mathbf g=0g=0; it is terminated when S=[ ⁣[n] ⁣]S=[\![n]\!]S=[[n]] at step TTT. The results hold for every run, whatever the tie-breaking.
  • Costs are the unnormalized sums ∑iCi,σi\sum_i \mathbf C_{i,\sigma_i}∑i​Ci,σi​​, as in the book's proof of Proposition 3.9. Under the 1n\frac1nn1​ normalization of (2.2) the gap nεn\varepsilonnε becomes ε\varepsilonε.
  • Added hypotheses: n≥2n\ge2n≥2 in the goal (the second-best index requires it); ε>0\varepsilon>0ε>0 throughout; C≥0\mathbf C\ge0C≥0 in the corrected Proposition 3.8, which its proof uses.
  • Printed slips. Proposition 3.8 as printed (N=n∥C∥∞/εN=n\|\mathbf C\|_\infty/\varepsilonN=n∥C∥∞​/ε) fails for C=0\mathbf C=0C=0; the companion states the bound the proof gives. Property (b) "can only increase" is stated as non-decrease; property (c) refers to an object index jjj.
  • Trivialization ruled out. The run predicate forces the initial state, the exact update (3.9) and the set update of step 2 at every iteration, and the goal requires S=[ ⁣[n] ⁣]S=[\![n]\!]S=[[n]] at the end; a terminated run exists already for n=2n=2n=2, so the goal is not vacuous.

Contributions welcome: the injectivity invariant of ξ on S as a reusable lemma; the milestones in any order; a proof of termination (the companion) and of the existence of a terminated run for every n≥2n\ge2n≥2.

Selected references

  • G. Peyré and M. Cuturi, Computational Optimal Transport, Foundations and Trends in Machine Learning 11(5–6):355–607, 2019, §3.7. https://doi.org/10.1561/2200000073
  • D. P. Bertsekas, A new algorithm for the assignment problem, Mathematical Programming 21:152–171, 1981. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01584237
  • D. P. Bertsekas and J. Eckstein, Dual coordinate step methods for linear network flow problems, Mathematical Programming 42:203–243, 1988. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01589417
  • D. P. Bertsekas, Auction algorithms for network flow problems: A tutorial introduction, Computational Optimization and Applications 1:7–66, 1992. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00247653
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Optimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Responsible Sourcing in Supply Chains: When Each of the Four Sourcing Strategies Is OptimalResearch Paper

Motivation

A buyer can reduce production cost by using a supplier whose operations carry a risk of a responsibility violation. That choice can also bring a direct penalty and cause customers to leave. Guo, Lee, and Swinney study how the cost saving, consumer demand, and violation risk jointly determine the buyer’s sourcing decision in a transparent supply chain. Their model distinguishes customers who value responsible production from those who do not, making it possible to ask when the buyer uses a responsible supplier, a risky supplier, or both. The question concerns supplier selection when the buyer knows each supplier’s responsibility type and customers can react to a violation. Guo, Lee, and Swinney (2016) give the model and its four strategy regions.

Setting

A single buyer sells to a market whose total size is normalized to one. A responsible supplier has marginal cost cRc_RcR​ and no responsibility violation in the model. A risky supplier has lower marginal cost cNR<cRc_{NR}<c_RcNR​<cR​ and a violation occurs with probability ϕ∈[0,1]\phi\in[0,1]ϕ∈[0,1]. Write Δ=cR−cNR\Delta=c_R-c_{NR}Δ=cR​−cNR​ for the responsible supplier’s cost premium. A violation costs the buyer a fixed amount cVPc_{VP}cVP​.

Every consumer has baseline willingness to pay vvv. A fraction θ∈[0,1]\theta\in[0,1]θ∈[0,1] is socially conscious and has additional willingness to pay rrr for a responsibly sourced product. Upon a violation, a fraction α∈[0,1]\alpha\in[0,1]α∈[0,1] of this group exits the market. The remaining fraction 1−θ1-\theta1−θ has no responsible-sourcing premium and does not exit for that reason. These symbols and ranges follow the paper’s Section 3; the theorem adds no sign restriction to vvv, rrr, or cVPc_{VP}cVP​.

The buyer chooses among four sourcing strategies. Low-cost sourcing (LC) uses the risky supplier for the whole market. Dual sourcing (DS) serves socially conscious consumers with responsible units and other consumers with risky units. Responsible niche sourcing (RN) serves only socially conscious consumers with responsible units. Responsible mass market sourcing (RM) serves everyone with responsible units. With Πs\Pi^sΠs denoting strategy sss’s expected profit, Table 2 gives

ΠLC=(1−αϕ)θ(v−cNR)+(1−θ)(v−cNR)−ϕcVP,ΠDS=(1−αϕ)θ(v+r−cR)+(1−θ)(v−cNR)−ϕcVP,ΠRN=θ(v+r−cR),ΠRM=v−cR.\begin{aligned} \Pi^{LC}&=(1-\alpha\phi)\theta(v-c_{NR})+(1-\theta)(v-c_{NR})-\phi c_{VP},\\ \Pi^{DS}&=(1-\alpha\phi)\theta(v+r-c_R)+(1-\theta)(v-c_{NR})-\phi c_{VP},\\ \Pi^{RN}&=\theta(v+r-c_R),\\ \Pi^{RM}&=v-c_R. \end{aligned}ΠLCΠDSΠRNΠRM​=(1−αϕ)θ(v−cNR​)+(1−θ)(v−cNR​)−ϕcVP​,=(1−αϕ)θ(v+r−cR​)+(1−θ)(v−cNR​)−ϕcVP​,=θ(v+r−cR​),=v−cR​.​

A strategy is optimal when its profit is at least the profit of each of the four strategies. This definition allows ties. In the statements below, [x]+=max⁡(x,0)[x]^+=\max(x,0)[x]+=max(x,0), as defined immediately before Proposition 1. Section 4 and Table 2 are the sources for these formulas.

Formalization targets

Proposition 1: sufficient conditions for each strategy

The goal is all four clauses of Proposition 1, p. 2729, as printed. For LC, the sufficient conditions are

r<Δ,ϕ[αθ(v−cNR)+cVP]<Δ−[θr−(1−θ)(v−cR)]+.r<\Delta,\qquad \phi[\alpha\theta(v-c_{NR})+c_{VP}]<\Delta-[\theta r-(1-\theta)(v-c_R)]^+.r<Δ,ϕ[αθ(v−cNR​)+cVP​]<Δ−[θr−(1−θ)(v−cR​)]+.

For DS, they are

r>Δ,ϕ[αθ(v+r−cNR)+cVP]<Δ(1−θ)+θr−[θr−(1−θ)(v−cR)]+.r>\Delta,\qquad \phi[\alpha\theta(v+r-c_{NR})+c_{VP}]<\Delta(1-\theta)+\theta r-[\theta r-(1-\theta)(v-c_R)]^+.r>Δ,ϕ[αθ(v+r−cNR​)+cVP​]<Δ(1−θ)+θr−[θr−(1−θ)(v−cR​)]+.

For RN, the threshold is r>(v−cR)(1−θ)/θr>(v-c_R)(1-\theta)/\thetar>(v−cR​)(1−θ)/θ; for RM it is r<(v−cR)(1−θ)/θr<(v-c_R)(1-\theta)/\thetar<(v−cR​)(1−θ)/θ. Each of these last two clauses also requires that neither LC nor DS be optimal. They are stated for θ>0\theta>0θ>0, since their displayed quotient is undefined at zero. The six milestones record the pairwise strategy comparisons stated in the appendix proof, in its order: LC with DS, RM, and RN; RN with RM; and DS with RN and RM. Proposition 1 and its appendix proof supply these targets.

Significance

The proposition partitions the buyer’s decision into explicit sufficient regions. It identifies when the low cost of risky sourcing outweighs expected violation costs, when serving both segments separately pays, and when responsible sourcing should serve only the conscious segment or the full market. The four profits also provide the base for the paper’s later comparative statics on sourcing quantities, penalties, and transparency. Those later propositions are outside this mission; their exact treatment of strategy ties and sourcing quantities warrants a separate development. Guo, Lee, and Swinney (2016) establish these results in the published article.

The mathematical result is proved in that article. The formalization task is to give its parameter ranges, four profits, and optimality claims a machine-checkable statement, then prove the pairwise comparisons and the four-clause goal. The draft statements compile locally, but their proofs are open. The resulting model and comparisons can support later formalizations of the article’s other propositions.

Difficulty

The four choices must be compared under a single, consistent profit table. A comparison with one competitor does not establish optimality among all four, and the positive-part term in Proposition 1 compresses two distinct comparisons into one threshold. Boundary cases also matter: a strict “preferred to” comparison can disappear when its profit difference is zero, even though weak optimality remains meaningful. The printed sufficient condition in part (ii) uses cNRc_{NR}cNR​ inside the violation term, while the appendix’s DS comparisons use cRc_RcR​. Both statements must retain their respective printed forms; treating them as the same expression would change the source claim.

Formalization scope

Lean represents the eight parameters by real fields of one record and the four strategies by a finite inductive type. The range assumptions are 0≤θ,α,ϕ≤10\leq\theta,\alpha,\phi\leq10≤θ,α,ϕ≤1 and cNR<cRc_{NR}<c_RcNR​<cR​. The cost premium is defined from the two costs. The theorem compares exactly the four Table 2 profits; the Section 3–4 derivation of prices and quantities from the underlying selling game is outside this mission. An optimal strategy is weakly best against all four strategies, including itself. A model with fewer competitors or profits that differ from Table 2 would not capture the proposition.

The clauses containing division by θ\thetaθ require θ>0\theta>0θ>0. The appendix’s strict LC–DS equivalence additionally requires θ>0\theta>0θ>0 and αϕ<1\alpha\phi<1αϕ<1; otherwise equal profits can defeat its “if and only if” wording. Proposition 1 itself retains the full standing ranges. No positivity of vvv, rrr, or cVPc_{VP}cVP​ is assumed. Part (ii) retains the printed cNRc_{NR}cNR​, which makes its hypothesis stronger than the corresponding appendix conditions with cRc_RcR​. Its conclusion remains valid under the standing ranges. These conventions are visible in the statements and can be checked independently of the paper’s informal derivation.

The development needs only real arithmetic, finite case analysis, the four profit definitions, and the maximum of a real number with zero. The parameter record and strategy comparison interface are reusable for later propositions in the same paper. Contributions that prove the exact milestone statements, establish the goal, or clarify behavior at ties are within scope.

Selected references

  • Guo, R., H. L. Lee, and R. Swinney, Responsible Sourcing in Supply Chains, Management Science 62(9):2722–2744, 2016. DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.2015.2256.
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Optimal TransportOptimizationProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

On a Problem of Optimal Transport Under Marginal Martingale Constraints 1: An Optimal Martingale Transport Plan Is Concentrated on a Borel Set No Finite Rerouting ImprovesResearch Paper

Motivation

In classical optimal transport, a transport plan that minimizes the total cost is characterized through its support: an optimal plan is ccc-cyclically monotone, meaning that no finite collection of its transported particles can be re-paired more cheaply (Villani, Optimal Transport, Old and New, 2009, Ch. 4–5). This pointwise criterion is how most structural results in optimal transport are proved: it is what turns a global minimization over measures into a statement about finitely many points.

The martingale transport problem adds a constraint motivated by mathematical finance: the plan must be the law of a one-step martingale (X,Y)(X, Y)(X,Y) with given marginals X∼μX\sim\muX∼μ, Y∼νY\sim\nuY∼ν. Its value gives model-independent bounds on the price of an exotic option whose payoff is the cost function, given the prices of all vanilla options at two dates (Beiglböck, Henry-Labordère, Penkner, Model-independent bounds for option prices, Finance Stoch. 2013). Because the martingale constraint ties together all points with the same first coordinate, the classical re-pairing argument does not carry over: swapping two destinations generally destroys the martingale property.

M. Beiglböck and N. Juillet (On a problem of optimal transport under marginal martingale constraints, Ann. Probab. 44(1), 2016; arXiv:1208.1509v2) prove a martingale replacement for ccc-cyclical monotonicity, the variational lemma (Lemma 1.11). It is the tool from which they derive the left-monotone structure of optimal plans, the uniqueness of the left-curtain coupling as optimizer for costs h(y−x)h(y-x)h(y−x) with h′h'h′ strictly convex, and the support bounds for optimizers. This mission is the first of a series formalizing that paper.

Setting

All measures live on R\mathbb RR or R×R\mathbb R\times\mathbb RR×R with their Borel σ\sigmaσ-algebras. Two probability measures μ,ν\mu,\nuμ,ν on R\mathbb RR with finite first moment are in convex order, μ⪯Cν\mu\preceq_C\nuμ⪯C​ν, if ∫φ dμ≤∫φ dν\int\varphi\,d\mu\le\int\varphi\,d\nu∫φdμ≤∫φdν for every convex φ:R→R\varphi:\mathbb R\to\mathbb Rφ:R→R.

A transport plan is a measure π\piπ on R2\mathbb R^2R2 with first marginal μ\muμ and second marginal ν\nuν. It is a martingale transport plan, π∈ΠM(μ,ν)\pi\in\Pi_M(\mu,\nu)π∈ΠM​(μ,ν), if under π\piπ the conditional mean of yyy given xxx equals xxx; equivalently,

∫ρ(x) (y−x) dπ(x,y)=0for every bounded Borel ρ.\int\rho(x)\,(y-x)\,d\pi(x,y)=0\quad\text{for every bounded Borel }\rho .∫ρ(x)(y−x)dπ(x,y)=0for every bounded Borel ρ.

A cost is a Borel function c:R2→Rc:\mathbb R^2\to\mathbb Rc:R2→R satisfying the sufficient integrability condition c(x,y)≥a(x)+b(y)c(x,y)\ge a(x)+b(y)c(x,y)≥a(x)+b(y) with a∈L1(μ)a\in L^1(\mu)a∈L1(μ), b∈L1(ν)b\in L^1(\nu)b∈L1(ν); then the cost of a plan, ∫c dπ\int c\,d\pi∫cdπ, is well defined in (−∞,+∞](-\infty,+\infty](−∞,+∞]. A plan π∈ΠM(μ,ν)\pi\in\Pi_M(\mu,\nu)π∈ΠM​(μ,ν) is optimal if ∫c dπ≤∫c dπ′\int c\,d\pi\le\int c\,d\pi'∫cdπ≤∫cdπ′ for every π′∈ΠM(μ,ν)\pi'\in\Pi_M(\mu,\nu)π′∈ΠM​(μ,ν), and it leads to finite costs if ∫c dπ<+∞\int c\,d\pi<+\infty∫cdπ<+∞.

A measure α′\alpha'α′ on R2\mathbb R^2R2 is a competitor of α\alphaα (Definition 1.10) if it has the same two marginals as α\alphaα and the same conditional barycentres: ∫y dαx(y)=∫y dαx′(y)\int y\,d\alpha_x(y)=\int y\,d\alpha'_x(y)∫ydαx​(y)=∫ydαx′​(y) for almost every xxx, where (αx)(\alpha_x)(αx​), (αx′)(\alpha'_x)(αx′​) are disintegrations with respect to the first marginal. A competitor redistributes the mass of α\alphaα in a way that a martingale plan could absorb: replacing a piece α\alphaα of a martingale plan by α′\alpha'α′ keeps both marginals and the martingale property.

Formalization targets

Goal: the variational lemma (Lemma 1.11, p. 8)

Let μ⪯Cν\mu\preceq_C\nuμ⪯C​ν be probability measures, ccc a Borel cost satisfying the sufficient integrability condition, and π∈ΠM(μ,ν)\pi\in\Pi_M(\mu,\nu)π∈ΠM​(μ,ν) optimal with ∫c dπ<+∞\int c\,d\pi<+\infty∫cdπ<+∞. Then there is a Borel set Γ⊆R2\Gamma\subseteq\mathbb R^2Γ⊆R2 with π(Γ)=1\pi(\Gamma)=1π(Γ)=1 such that

∫c dα≤∫c dα′for every finitely supported α with spt⁡α⊆Γ and every competitor α′ of α.\int c\,d\alpha\le\int c\,d\alpha'\quad\text{for every finitely supported }\alpha\text{ with }\operatorname{spt}\alpha\subseteq\Gamma\text{ and every competitor }\alpha'\text{ of }\alpha .∫cdα≤∫cdα′for every finitely supported α with sptα⊆Γ and every competitor α′ of α.

The set Γ\GammaΓ is chosen once, before α\alphaα; the quantifier order is the content.

Milestones

The milestones are the steps of the paper's proof (§3, pp. 16–19), in attack order:

  1. Theorem 3.1 (p. 17), Kellerer's duality in the form of Beiglböck–Goldstern–Maresch–Schachermayer: for a Polish probability space (Z,ζ)(Z,\zeta)(Z,ζ) and a Borel M⊆ZnM\subseteq Z^nM⊆Zn, either M⊆⋃iMiM\subseteq\bigcup_i M_iM⊆⋃i​Mi​ with ζ(proj⁡iMi)=0\zeta(\operatorname{proj}^iM_i)=0ζ(projiMi​)=0, or some measure γ\gammaγ with γ(M)>0\gamma(M)>0γ(M)>0 has all marginals ≤ζ\le\zeta≤ζ.
  2. The set M⊆(R2)nM\subseteq(\mathbb R^2)^nM⊆(R2)n of nnn-tuples carrying a non-optimal finite measure is Borel (p. 17).
  3. In case (1), a Borel Γn\Gamma_nΓn​ of full π\piπ-measure supports no improvable α\alphaα with ∣spt⁡α∣≤n|\operatorname{spt}\alpha|\le n∣sptα∣≤n (p. 18).
  4. Every finitely supported α\alphaα has a cost-minimizing competitor (p. 18).
  5. If ω≤π\omega\le\piω≤π and a competitor ω′\omega'ω′ is cheaper than ω\omegaω, then π−ω+ω′\pi-\omega+\omega'π−ω+ω′ is a cheaper martingale plan (p. 18).
  6. For an optimal π\piπ of finite cost, case (2) cannot occur (pp. 18–19).
  7. Γ=⋂nΓn\Gamma=\bigcap_n\Gamma_nΓ=⋂n​Γn​ is as required (p. 17).

Significance

The result. The variational lemma converts optimality of a martingale plan, a property of a measure, into a condition on finite configurations of points in its support. In the paper it is applied, together with a lemma on accumulation points of sections (Lemma 3.2), to show that optimizers for costs h(y−x)h(y-x)h(y−x) with h′h'h′ strictly convex are left-monotone, which by the paper's Theorem 1.5 identifies them as the left-curtain coupling; it also yields the bound ∣spt⁡πx∣≤k|\operatorname{spt}\pi_x|\le k∣sptπx​∣≤k of Theorem 7.1 and the two-graph structure of the optimizers for ±∣y−x∣\pm|y-x|±∣y−x∣. Later missions of this series use it as a milestone. Its converse, under continuity assumptions, is the separate Lemma A.2 of the paper's appendix.

Formalizing it. The result is proved in the paper; to our knowledge it has no machine-checked proof. A formalization needs a usable form of Kellerer's duality for multi-marginal problems, which is not in Mathlib, and the bookkeeping that finite rearrangements of a martingale plan stay in ΠM(μ,ν)\Pi_M(\mu,\nu)ΠM​(μ,ν). Both are reusable well beyond this paper: Kellerer's theorem underlies the analogous results for classical, multi-marginal and martingale transport.

Difficulty

The classical proof of ccc-cyclical monotonicity perturbs an optimal plan by moving a small amount of mass around a finite cycle of its support points. For martingale plans this fails: the perturbation must preserve the conditional barycentre of every xxx, and mass sitting at isolated points of a non-atomic plan cannot be moved without moving mass at uncountably many other points. The proof therefore cannot argue point by point. It works with whole families of bad configurations at once, which requires the measure-theoretic duality of Kellerer (resting on Choquet's capacitability theorem) and a measurable choice of an optimal competitor for each configuration. Proving that the set of bad configurations is Borel, and that a positive-mass family of them can be glued into a cheaper competitor ω′\omega'ω′ of a piece ω≤π\omega\le\piω≤π, is the technical core.

Formalization scope

The Lean development uses Mathlib's Measure ℝ and Measure (ℝ × ℝ). Costs and integrals that may be infinite take values in EReal, through the published definition ModelRiskOT.Duality.extIntegral (∫f+−∫f−\int f^+-\int f^-∫f+−∫f−, with (+∞)−(+∞)=−∞(+\infty)-(+\infty)=-\infty(+∞)−(+∞)=−∞); no Bochner integral of a possibly non-integrable function is compared. Martingale plans and competitors are encoded through test functions ρ(x)\rho(x)ρ(x) (the paper's characterization (4), p. 10) instead of disintegrations. A finitely supported finite measure is written ∑s∈Swsδs\sum_{s\in S}w_s\delta_s∑s∈S​ws​δs​ with SSS a finite set and weights ws≥0w_s\ge0ws​≥0; this covers every such measure, and masses are taken finite. (R2)n(\mathbb R^2)^n(R2)n is Fin n → ℝ × ℝ.

Committed conventions and disclosed additions:

  • the goal's hypothesis "leads to finite costs" is ∫c dπ<+∞\int c\,d\pi<+\infty∫cdπ<+∞; without it, a cost under which every plan has infinite cost makes optimality empty;
  • Theorem 3.1 is stated for Borel MMM, the case proved in the cited source and the only case the paper uses; ζ(proj⁡iMi)=0\zeta(\operatorname{proj}^iM_i)=0ζ(projiMi​)=0 is the outer measure, since the projections need not be Borel;
  • in milestone 3, Γn\Gamma_nΓn​ is a Borel subset of the paper's R2∖N\mathbb R^2\setminus NR2∖N of full measure, because NNN need not be Borel;
  • milestone 4 states, for the uniform measure αp\alpha_pαp​ on the points of an nnn-tuple ppp, both that an optimal competitor αp′\alpha'_pαp′​ exists and that it can be chosen measurably in ppp (p. 18), with Mathlib's σ-algebra on the space of measures.

A formalization in which Γ\GammaΓ is empty or π\piπ-null, or in which Γ\GammaΓ is allowed to depend on α\alphaα, is trivial and is ruled out by the statement: π(Γc)=0\pi(\Gamma^c)=0π(Γc)=0 and ∃Γ ∀α\exists\Gamma\,\forall\alpha∃Γ∀α. The competitor α′\alpha'α′ ranges over all measures, not only finitely supported ones.

Welcome contributions: a general form of Kellerer's duality theorem (milestone 1), the Borel-measurability of the bad set, and the gluing step of milestone 6.

Selected references

  • M. Beiglböck, N. Juillet, On a problem of optimal transport under marginal martingale constraints, Ann. Probab. 44(1), 42–106, 2016. arXiv:1208.1509, doi:10.1214/14-AOP966
  • M. Beiglböck, M. Goldstern, G. Maresch, W. Schachermayer, Optimal and better transport plans, J. Funct. Anal. 256(6), 1907–1927, 2009. doi:10.1016/j.jfa.2009.01.013
  • H. G. Kellerer, Duality theorems for marginal problems, Z. Wahrsch. Verw. Gebiete 67(4), 399–432, 1984. doi:10.1007/BF00532047
  • M. Beiglböck, P. Henry-Labordère, F. Penkner, Model-independent bounds for option prices — a mass transport approach, Finance Stoch. 17(3), 477–501, 2013. doi:10.1007/s00780-013-0205-8
  • C. Villani, Optimal Transport, Old and New, Springer, 2009. doi:10.1007/978-3-540-71050-9
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OptimizationProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

Approximation Algorithms for Product Framing and Pricing 1: The NEST Framing Algorithm Earns at Least 6/π² of the Optimal Expected Revenue When Page Views Are NBUEResearch Paper

Product framing in online retail

An online retailer does not show its catalogue at once. Products are arranged on a sequence of pages, and a consumer looks at the first few pages and then chooses among what she has seen, or leaves. Where a product is placed therefore decides whether it is considered at all. Gallego, Li, Truong and Wang (Operations Research, 2020) call the placement decision product framing. They show that the optimal framing problem is NP-hard even with two pages and a multinomial logit choice model, and give polynomial-time framing algorithms with constant performance guarantees.

The paper builds on the assortment optimization literature, where a seller chooses one set of products to offer under a choice model, and on work in which consideration sets depend on how products are presented. Davis, Topaloglu and Williamson (2015) studied a sequential assortment problem in which products are added over time. Two of their results, on how per-product revenue behaves when products are removed, are the structural inputs of this mission. Aouad and Segev (2016) studied a variant with one product per page under the MNL model, in which every product must be displayed.

Setting

There are nnn products [n]={1,…,n}[n]=\{1,\dots,n\}[n]={1,…,n}, and product iii earns unit revenue rir_iri​. The products are placed on mmm pages, each holding at most ppp products, and a product may be left undisplayed. A consumer views the first XXX pages, where X∈[m]X\in[m]X∈[m] is random with law λ(x)=P[X=x]\lambda(x)=\mathbb P[X=x]λ(x)=P[X=x] and tail Λ(x)=P[X≥x]\Lambda(x)=\mathbb P[X\ge x]Λ(x)=P[X≥x], independent of the framing. Her consideration set is the set of products on pages 1,…,X1,\dots,X1,…,X.

A choice model gives, for each consideration set S⊆[n]S\subseteq[n]S⊆[n], purchase probabilities P(i,S)≥0P(i,S)\ge0P(i,S)≥0 with P(i,S)=0P(i,S)=0P(i,S)=0 for i∉Si\notin Si∈/S and ∑i∈SP(i,S)≤1\sum_{i\in S}P(i,S)\le1∑i∈S​P(i,S)≤1. The expected revenue of SSS is R(S)=∑i∈SriP(i,S)R(S)=\sum_{i\in S}r_iP(i,S)R(S)=∑i∈S​ri​P(i,S). The optimal framing value is

VOPT=max⁡framings ∑x∈[m]λ(x) R(products on pages 1,…,x),V^{OPT}=\max_{\text{framings}}\ \sum_{x\in[m]}\lambda(x)\,R(\text{products on pages }1,\dots,x),VOPT=framingsmax​ x∈[m]∑​λ(x)R(products on pages 1,…,x),

the maximum over all placements with at most ppp products per page (problem (1)). The cardinality-constrained assortment problem is G(c)=max⁡∣S∣≤cR(S)G(c)=\max_{|S|\le c}R(S)G(c)=max∣S∣≤c​R(S) (problem (2)), and U(x)=G(x⋅p)U(x)=G(x\cdot p)U(x)=G(x⋅p) is the best revenue from a consumer who sees xxx pages.

The analysis rests on three assumptions:

  • A1: P(i,S)≥P(i,T)P(i,S)\ge P(i,T)P(i,S)≥P(i,T) whenever i∈S⊆Ti\in S\subseteq Ti∈S⊆T, a property of every random utility model.
  • A2: problem (2) can be solved, here exactly.
  • A3: XXX is new better than used in expectation (NBUE): q(x)=E[X−x+1∣X≥x]≤q(1)=E[X]q(x)=\mathbb E[X-x+1\mid X\ge x]\le q(1)=\mathbb E[X]q(x)=E[X−x+1∣X≥x]≤q(1)=E[X] for all x∈[m]x\in[m]x∈[m].

The algorithm NEST(yyy), for y∈[m]y\in[m]y∈[m], first takes an optimal solution S(y)S(y)S(y) of (2) with bound y⋅py\cdot py⋅p. Then, for x=y−1x=y-1x=y−1 down to 111, it chooses S(x)⊆S(x+1)S(x)\subseteq S(x+1)S(x)⊆S(x+1) of size min⁡(∣S(x+1)∣,xp)\min(|S(x+1)|,xp)min(∣S(x+1)∣,xp) whose per-product revenue R(S(x))/∣S(x)∣R(S(x))/|S(x)|R(S(x))/∣S(x)∣ is at least that of S(x+1)S(x+1)S(x+1). Page xxx displays S(x)∖S(x−1)S(x)\setminus S(x-1)S(x)∖S(x−1), and pages after yyy stay blank. VNEST(y)V^{NEST(y)}VNEST(y) is the expected revenue of this framing, and VNEST=max⁡y∈[m]VNEST(y)V^{NEST}=\max_{y\in[m]}V^{NEST(y)}VNEST=maxy∈[m]​VNEST(y).

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3 (p. 10)

VNEST ≥ 6π2 VOPTV^{NEST}\ \ge\ \frac{6}{\pi^2}\,V^{OPT}VNEST ≥ π26​VOPT

The goal holds under A1, A2 with ε=0\varepsilon=0ε=0 and A3, for every run of NEST(yyy), y∈[m]y\in[m]y∈[m]. Here 6/π2≈0.6086/\pi^2\approx0.6086/π2≈0.608.

Milestones

The milestones are the numbered results the proof of Theorem 3 uses, in the order it uses them:

  1. Theorem 2, the clairvoyant bound VOPT≤E[U(X)]V^{OPT}\le\mathbb E[U(X)]VOPT≤E[U(X)].
  2. Lemma 1, from Davis et al.: some product can be removed from any SSS with ∣S∣≥2|S|\ge2∣S∣≥2 without lowering R(S)/∣S∣R(S)/|S|R(S)/∣S∣.
  3. The existence of a NEST(yyy) run.
  4. Proposition 1: VNEST(y)≥U(y)yE[min⁡(X,y)]V^{NEST(y)}\ge\frac{U(y)}{y}\mathbb E[\min(X,y)]VNEST(y)≥yU(y)​E[min(X,y)].
  5. Lemma 2, from Davis et al.: U(x)/xU(x)/xU(x)/x is decreasing.
  6. Propositions 2 and 3, on the bound-revealing program (5),
γ=min⁡U,Λ max⁡x∈[m]U(x)x E[min⁡(X,x)],\gamma=\min_{U,\Lambda}\ \max_{x\in[m]}\frac{U(x)}{x}\,\mathbb E[\min(X,x)],γ=U,Λmin​ x∈[m]max​xU(x)​E[min(X,x)],

taken over NBUE tails Λ\LambdaΛ and functions U≥0U\ge0U≥0 that are increasing with U(x)/xU(x)/xU(x)/x decreasing and E[U(X)]=1\mathbb E[U(X)]=1E[U(X)]=1. Proposition 3 states 1/γ=max⁡ΛE[X/E[min⁡(X,Y)∣X]]1/\gamma=\max_\Lambda\mathbb E[X/\mathbb E[\min(X,Y)\mid X]]1/γ=maxΛ​E[X/E[min(X,Y)∣X]]. 7. Lemma 7 and Corollaries 5–6, comparing NBUE XXX with an exponential variable of the same mean. 8. The evaluation E[W/(μ(1−e−W/μ))]=π2/6\mathbb E[W/(\mu(1-e^{-W/\mu}))]=\pi^2/6E[W/(μ(1−e−W/μ))]=π2/6 for WWW exponential with mean μ\muμ. 9. The bound γ≥6/π2\gamma\ge6/\pi^2γ≥6/π2.

Significance

Theorem 3 gives a constant-factor guarantee for a problem that is NP-hard under the same assumptions. The constant does not depend on the choice model beyond A1, on the number of pages, or on the page capacity, and the paper shows it is tight relative to the upper bound E[U(X)]\mathbb E[U(X)]E[U(X)] (Proposition 4, in the geometric limit). NEST needs only a cardinality-constrained assortment oracle, which exists in polynomial time for the MNL and nested logit models. The same bound-revealing program, problem (5), is reused in the paper for joint framing and pricing (Theorem 7).

The paper proves the result in full. No part of it has been machine-checked. The mission formalizes the model and states the guarantee and every intermediate result. The proofs combine finite combinatorics (Lemmas 1 and 2, Proposition 1) with a comparison of a discrete NBUE law against the exponential distribution, and that comparison is reusable for other approximation analyses with the same structure. The equality of the exponential integral with ∑kk−2\sum_k k^{-2}∑k​k−2 connects to Mathlib's hasSum_zeta_two.

Difficulty

The upper bound (Theorem 2) and the lower bound (Proposition 1) are each elementary. The difficulty is to compare them uniformly over all choice models and all NBUE page-count laws. The ratio of max⁡yU(y)yE[min⁡(X,y)]\max_y\frac{U(y)}{y}\mathbb E[\min(X,y)]maxy​yU(y)​E[min(X,y)] to E[U(X)]\mathbb E[U(X)]E[U(X)] depends on the whole function UUU and the whole law of XXX, and the worst case cannot be read off from any single instance. Replacing the instance by the program (5) removes the choice model. Bounding the program still requires an optimization over distributions, and its value is attained only in a limit (Proposition 4).

The comparison with the exponential law goes through the increasing convex order. Here XXX is a discrete law on {1,…,m}\{1,\dots,m\}{1,…,m} and the comparison variable is continuous. The function h(x)=x/E[min⁡(Z,x)]h(x)=x/\mathbb E[\min(Z,x)]h(x)=x/E[min(Z,x)] to which Lemma 7 is applied is increasing and convex only on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞), so a formal argument has to track the domain.

Formalization scope

Theorem numbers and pages are those of the authors' accepted manuscript (49 pp.), which differ from the journal typesetting. The conventions are:

  • Products are Fin n. Pages are the naturals 1,…,m1,\dots,m1,…,m, kept 1-based, with m,p≥1m,p\ge1m,p≥1.
  • A framing is a map Fin n → ℕ: page 000 means "not displayed", and each page 1,…,m1,\dots,m1,…,m holds at most ppp products. VOPTV^{OPT}VOPT is the maximum over the finite, nonempty set of feasible framings.
  • The law λ\lambdaλ is a function on [1,m][1,m][1,m], and Λ\LambdaΛ, E[min⁡(X,x)]\mathbb E[\min(X,x)]E[min(X,x)] and E[X]\mathbb E[X]E[X] are finite sums. A3 is the paper's own qqq-form, and a conditional expectation on a null event imposes nothing.
  • The exponential law is Mathlib's expMeasure with rate 1/E[X]1/\mathbb E[X]1/E[X]. The independence in Corollary 6 is encoded by iterated integrals.
  • The revenues are assumed nonnegative ("unit profit or revenue"). Lemma 1 fails for negative revenues.
  • A2 is taken with ε=0\varepsilon=0ε=0, as the paper does after p. 8, and polynomial time is not modelled.
  • "Increasing" and "decreasing" are weak.

NEST makes arbitrary choices, so a run is a predicate on its output. Theorem 3 is stated for every family of runs, and a separate milestone shows that runs exist. The value VNEST(y)V^{NEST(y)}VNEST(y) is the expected revenue of the framing the run actually displays, not the closed form ∑xλ(x)R(S(min⁡(x,y)))\sum_x\lambda(x)R(S(\min(x,y)))∑x​λ(x)R(S(min(x,y))), whose equality with it is part of the proof of Proposition 1. A formalization that quantified over some run, that defined VNEST(y)V^{NEST(y)}VNEST(y) by that closed form, or that assumed Lemma 2 for UUU would not be Theorem 3.

Program (5) is stated with its tail variable Λ\LambdaΛ and law λ(x)=Λ(x)−Λ(x+1)\lambda(x)=\Lambda(x)-\Lambda(x+1)λ(x)=Λ(x)−Λ(x+1), Λ(m+1)=0\Lambda(m+1)=0Λ(m+1)=0. The page's typos are corrected in the statements and recorded in the notes: "E[U(x)]=1\mathbb E[U(x)]=1E[U(x)]=1" in (5), and the right-hand side of Corollary 5. Proposition 2 is formalized in its existential reading: some optimal solution of (5) has constant U(x)xE[min⁡(X,x)]\frac{U(x)}{x}\mathbb E[\min(X,x)]xU(x)​E[min(X,x)].

A complete development needs:

  • finite assortment combinatorics;
  • the finite program (5) and its compactness;
  • the increasing convex order between a discrete NBUE law and the exponential, through integrated tails;
  • the integral ∫0∞ue−u/(1−e−u) du=π2/6\int_0^\infty ue^{-u}/(1-e^{-u})\,du=\pi^2/6∫0∞​ue−u/(1−e−u)du=π2/6.

The exponential comparison and the integral are reusable beyond this mission. Proofs of any milestone are welcome, including alternative proofs of Lemmas 1 and 2 from A1.

Selected references

  • G. Gallego, A. Li, V.-A. Truong, X. Wang, Approximation Algorithms for Product Framing and Pricing, Operations Research, 2020. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.2019.1875
  • J. M. Davis, H. Topaloglu, D. P. Williamson, Assortment optimization over time, Operations Research Letters 43(6), 608–611, 2015. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.orl.2015.08.007
  • A. Aouad, D. Segev, Display optimization for vertically differentiated locations under multinomial logit choice preferences, working paper, 2016 (as cited in the paper; later published in Management Science).
  • M. Shaked, J. G. Shanthikumar, Stochastic Orders, Springer, 2007. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-0-387-34675-5
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OptimizationProbabilityStatistics·Captain: mikedeng1

From Data to Decisions: Distributionally Robust Optimization Is Optimal 2: The Relative-Entropy Robust Predictor–Prescriptor Pair Is Strongly Optimal among Data-Driven PairsResearch Paper

Motivation

A decision maker wants to choose xxx in a compact set X⊆RnX\subseteq\mathbb R^nX⊆Rn to minimize an expected cost c(x,P⋆)=EP⋆[γ(x,ξ)]c(x,\mathbb P^\star)=\mathbb E_{\mathbb P^\star}[\gamma(x,\xi)]c(x,P⋆)=EP⋆​[γ(x,ξ)], but the distribution P⋆\mathbb P^\starP⋆ of ξ\xiξ is unknown; only independent samples ξ1,…,ξT\xi_1,\dots,\xi_Tξ1​,…,ξT​ are available. The standard remedy, minimizing the cost under the empirical distribution, is known to produce decisions whose realized cost exceeds the in-sample estimate: the "optimizer's curse" of decision analysis (Smith and Winkler, 2006) and overfitting in statistics. Distributionally robust optimization (DRO) replaces the empirical distribution by a worst case over a set of nearby distributions. Many such sets have been proposed, and the question of which one is best has no answer unless "best" is made precise.

Van Parys, Mohajerin Esfahani and Kuhn (arXiv:1704.04118v3, published in Management Science 67(6), 2021) give such a precise meaning. They ask for the least conservative data-driven decision rule whose out-of-sample disappointment decays exponentially at a prescribed rate rrr under every possible data-generating distribution, and they prove that DRO over a relative-entropy ball of radius rrr is that rule. This mission formalizes the prescription half of the result (Theorem 7 of the paper), in which decisions, not only cost estimates, are optimized. The prediction half (Theorem 4) is the subject of mission 1 of this series, and the extension to continuous state spaces (Theorem 10) is mission 3. All page and result numbers below refer to the arXiv version v3 (22 Dec 2019).

Setting

The random parameter takes values in a finite set Ξ={1,…,d}\Xi=\{1,\dots,d\}Ξ={1,…,d}. The model class is the probability simplex P={P∈R+d:∑iP(i)=1}\mathcal P=\{\mathbb P\in\mathbb R^d_+:\sum_i\mathbb P(i)=1\}P={P∈R+d​:∑i​P(i)=1} with the topology inherited from Rd\mathbb R^dRd. The cost γ(x,i)\gamma(x,i)γ(x,i) is continuous in xxx for each iii, and c(x,P)=∑iP(i)γ(x,i)c(x,\mathbb P)=\sum_i\mathbb P(i)\gamma(x,i)c(x,P)=∑i​P(i)γ(x,i). From a sample path the decision maker forms the empirical distribution P^T(i)=1T∑t=1T1ξt=i\hat{\mathbb P}_T(i)=\frac1T\sum_{t=1}^T\mathbb 1_{\xi_t=i}P^T​(i)=T1​∑t=1T​1ξt​=i​. When the samples are drawn independently from P\mathbb PP, the probability of an event about P^T\hat{\mathbb P}_TP^T​ is written P∞(⋅)\mathbb P^\infty(\cdot)P∞(⋅).

A data-driven predictor is a continuous function c^:X×P→R\hat c:X\times\mathcal P\to\mathbb Rc^:X×P→R; c^(x,P^T)\hat c(x,\hat{\mathbb P}_T)c^(x,P^T​) estimates c(x,P⋆)c(x,\mathbb P^\star)c(x,P⋆). A function f:P→Xf:\mathcal P\to Xf:P→X is quasi-continuous if for every P\mathbb PP, every ϵ>0\epsilon>0ϵ>0 and every neighbourhood UUU of P\mathbb PP there is a non-empty open V⊆UV\subseteq UV⊆U on which ∥f(P)−f(Q)∥≤ϵ\|f(\mathbb P)-f(\mathbb Q)\|\le\epsilon∥f(P)−f(Q)∥≤ϵ (the set VVV need not contain P\mathbb PP). A data-driven prescriptor induced by c^\hat cc^ is a quasi-continuous x^:P→X\hat x:\mathcal P\to Xx^:P→X with x^(P′)∈arg⁡min⁡x∈Xc^(x,P′)\hat x(\mathbb P')\in\arg\min_{x\in X}\hat c(x,\mathbb P')x^(P′)∈argminx∈X​c^(x,P′) for every P′\mathbb P'P′. The family X\mathcal XX consists of all such pairs (c^,x^)(\hat c,\hat x)(c^,x^).

The prescription disappointment of a pair under a model P\mathbb PP is

P∞(c(x^(P^T),P)>c^(x^(P^T),P^T)),\mathbb P^\infty\big(c(\hat x(\hat{\mathbb P}_T),\mathbb P)>\hat c(\hat x(\hat{\mathbb P}_T),\hat{\mathbb P}_T)\big),P∞(c(x^(P^T​),P)>c^(x^(P^T​),P^T​)),

the probability that the true cost of the prescribed decision exceeds its in-sample estimate. Pairs are ordered by their in-sample optimal values: (c^1,x^1)⪯X(c^2,x^2)(\hat c_1,\hat x_1)\preceq_{\mathcal X}(\hat c_2,\hat x_2)(c^1​,x^1​)⪯X​(c^2​,x^2​) iff c^1(x^1(P′),P′)≤c^2(x^2(P′),P′)\hat c_1(\hat x_1(\mathbb P'),\mathbb P')\le\hat c_2(\hat x_2(\mathbb P'),\mathbb P')c^1​(x^1​(P′),P′)≤c^2​(x^2​(P′),P′) for all P′\mathbb P'P′. Problem (6) of the paper is the vector optimization problem

min⁡(c^,x^)∈X⪯X (c^,x^)s.t.lim sup⁡T→∞1Tlog⁡P∞(c(x^(P^T),P)>c^(x^(P^T),P^T))≤−r∀ P∈P,\min_{(\hat c,\hat x)\in\mathcal X}{}^{\preceq_{\mathcal X}}\ (\hat c,\hat x)\quad\text{s.t.}\quad\limsup_{T\to\infty}\frac1T\log\mathbb P^\infty\big(c(\hat x(\hat{\mathbb P}_T),\mathbb P)>\hat c(\hat x(\hat{\mathbb P}_T),\hat{\mathbb P}_T)\big)\le-r\quad\forall\,\mathbb P\in\mathcal P,(c^,x^)∈Xmin​⪯X​ (c^,x^)s.t.T→∞limsup​T1​logP∞(c(x^(P^T​),P)>c^(x^(P^T​),P^T​))≤−r∀P∈P,

and a pair is strongly optimal if it is feasible and ⪯X\preceq_{\mathcal X}⪯X​ every feasible pair.

The relative entropy is I(P′,P)=∑iP′(i)log⁡(P′(i)/P(i))I(\mathbb P',\mathbb P)=\sum_i\mathbb P'(i)\log(\mathbb P'(i)/\mathbb P(i))I(P′,P)=∑i​P′(i)log(P′(i)/P(i)), with 0log⁡(0/p)=00\log(0/p)=00log(0/p)=0 and p′log⁡(p′/0)=+∞p'\log(p'/0)=+\inftyp′log(p′/0)=+∞. The distributionally robust predictor and prescriptor are

c^r(x,P′)=sup⁡P∈P{c(x,P):I(P′,P)≤r},x^r(P′)∈arg⁡min⁡x∈Xc^r(x,P′),\hat c_r(x,\mathbb P')=\sup_{\mathbb P\in\mathcal P}\{c(x,\mathbb P):I(\mathbb P',\mathbb P)\le r\},\qquad \hat x_r(\mathbb P')\in\arg\min_{x\in X}\hat c_r(x,\mathbb P'),c^r​(x,P′)=P∈Psup​{c(x,P):I(P′,P)≤r},x^r​(P′)∈argx∈Xmin​c^r​(x,P′),

with x^r\hat x_rx^r​ quasi-continuous (Definition 7). The estimator realization P′\mathbb P'P′ is the first argument of III, the reverse of the usual Kullback–Leibler ball.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 7 (p. 20)

r>0 ⟹ (c^r,x^r) is strongly optimal in (6), for every quasi-continuous selector x^r.r>0\ \Longrightarrow\ (\hat c_r,\hat x_r)\ \text{is strongly optimal in (6), for every quasi-continuous selector }\hat x_r .r>0 ⟹ (c^r​,x^r​) is strongly optimal in (6), for every quasi-continuous selector x^r​.

Milestones

  1. Proof of Theorem 7, p. 21 (Bledsoe 1952): a quasi-continuous x^:P→X\hat x:\mathcal P\to Xx^:P→X is continuous on a dense subset of P\mathcal PP.
  2. Proof of Theorem 7, p. 21 (Berge 1963): for XXX compact and c^\hat cc^ continuous, P′↦c^(x^(P′),P′)\mathbb P'\mapsto\hat c(\hat x(\mathbb P'),\mathbb P')P′↦c^(x^(P′),P′) is continuous for every arg-min selector x^\hat xx^.
  3. Proposition 4, p. 20: for r≥0r\ge0r≥0 a quasi-continuous selector x^r\hat x_rx^r​ exists.
  4. Theorem 6, p. 20: for r≥0r\ge0r≥0, (c^r,x^r)(\hat c_r,\hat x_r)(c^r​,x^r​) is feasible in (6).
  5. Theorem 8, (21), p. 22: P∞(c(x^r(P^T),P)>c^r(x^r(P^T),P^T))≤(T+1)de−rT\mathbb P^\infty\big(c(\hat x_r(\hat{\mathbb P}_T),\mathbb P)>\hat c_r(\hat x_r(\hat{\mathbb P}_T),\hat{\mathbb P}_T)\big)\le(T+1)^de^{-rT}P∞(c(x^r​(P^T​),P)>c^r​(x^r​(P^T​),P^T​))≤(T+1)de−rT for every T≥1T\ge1T≥1.

Context from mission 1

The proof of Theorem 7 also uses results posed as milestones of mission 1 of this series: the large deviation bounds of Theorem 1, (7a) and (7b) (p. 12); the continuity of c^r\hat c_rc^r​ (Proposition 3, p. 16); the inclusion of the disappointment set in {I(⋅,P)>r}\{I(\cdot,\mathbb P)>r\}{I(⋅,P)>r} from the proof of Theorem 3 (pp. 16–17); and the construction of a perturbed model P2>0\mathbb P_2>0P2​>0 with I(P0′,P2)<rI(\mathbb P'_0,\mathbb P_2)<rI(P0′​,P2​)<r from the proof of Theorem 4 ((14)–(16), pp. 17–18). They are not posed again here.

Significance

Theorem 7 says that no decision rule whose prescriptions disappoint with probability decaying at rate rrr can report a smaller in-sample optimal value than relative-entropy DRO, at any realization of the data. It turns a modelling choice (which ambiguity set to use) into a consequence of a statistical requirement, and it identifies the radius rrr of the ball with the decay rate of the out-of-sample disappointment. Theorem 8 complements this with a finite-sample bound that holds before any data are observed.

The theorem is proved in the paper, and its proof is short given the earlier results; there is no machine-checked version. A complete formalization adds a finite-alphabet Sanov theorem with the infinity convention of the relative entropy, an elementary theory of quasi-continuous functions on the simplex (density of continuity points, selection of quasi-continuous minimizers from an upper semicontinuous arg-min map), and Berge's maximum theorem in the form used here. The paper itself only sketches several steps (the construction of P1,P2\mathbb P_1,\mathbb P_2P1​,P2​ "exactly as in the proof of Theorem 4", and the proof of Theorem 8 is omitted).

Difficulty

Theorem 7 does not follow from the predictor result (Theorem 4). The order ⪯X\preceq_{\mathcal X}⪯X​ compares only the in-sample optimal values, so a competing pair may use a predictor that lies below c^r\hat c_rc^r​ away from its own minimizers, and the pointwise comparison of predictors that settles Theorem 4 says nothing about such a pair. What the data can detect is governed by the large deviations of P^T\hat{\mathbb P}_TP^T​, which only see sets with non-empty interior in P\mathcal PP, while the competitor's prescriptor need not be continuous. Without quasi-continuity of x^\hat xx^ the argument breaks: a selector that jumps to a cheaper decision only on a set with empty interior is invisible to the data, and the theorem is not claimed for such selectors. The existence half (Proposition 4) rests on a selection theorem for upper semicontinuous set-valued maps on Baire spaces (Matejdes 1987, Corollary 4), for which there is no Mathlib counterpart.

Formalization scope

Lean conventions:

  • Ξ\XiΞ is Fin d, and P\mathcal PP is the subtype of stdSimplex ℝ (Fin d) with its subspace topology.
  • XXX is a compact subset of EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin n), with decisions in the subtype ↥X and the Euclidean distance; γ\gammaγ is continuous in xxx for each iii. These are the standing assumptions of §2 (p. 5).
  • The relative entropy is valued in EReal, equal to +∞+\infty+∞ unless P(i)=0⇒P′(i)=0\mathbb P(i)=0\Rightarrow\mathbb P'(i)=0P(i)=0⇒P′(i)=0.
  • P∞(P^T∈D)\mathbb P^\infty(\hat{\mathbb P}_T\in\mathcal D)P∞(P^T​∈D) is the finite sum over sample paths in ΞT\Xi^TΞT of ∏tP(ξt)\prod_t\mathbb P(\xi_t)∏t​P(ξt​). For T=0T=0T=0 every such event has probability 000, and Theorem 8 is posed for T≥1T\ge1T≥1.
  • The decay rate lim sup⁡1Tlog⁡pT≤−r\limsup\frac1T\log p_T\le-rlimsupT1​logpT​≤−r is encoded without logarithms: for every r′<rr'<rr′<r, eventually pT≤e−r′Tp_T\le e^{-r'T}pT​≤e−r′T.
  • x^r\hat x_rx^r​ is a hypothesis-bound function, quasi-continuous and an arg-min selector of c^r\hat c_rc^r​, never a chosen one.
  • Proposition 4 additionally assumes X≠∅X\ne\emptysetX=∅.

Ruled out:

  • A rate written with Real.log would treat a probability that vanishes as having rate 000.
  • A real-valued relative entropy would give finite values where the paper has +∞+\infty+∞.
  • Competing pairs without continuity of c^\hat cc^ or quasi-continuity of x^\hat xx^ make the theorem false.

Each of these makes the statement different from the paper's, and none is used.

Reusable infrastructure includes quasi-continuity (with the Bledsoe density theorem), Berge's maximum theorem for the minimum value, and finite-alphabet large deviations for empirical distributions. Contributions of any of these, or of the mission 1 milestones, are welcome.

Selected references

  • B. P. G. Van Parys, P. Mohajerin Esfahani, D. Kuhn, From Data to Decisions: Distributionally Robust Optimization is Optimal, Management Science 67(6), 2021; preprint arXiv:1704.04118v3, 2019. https://arxiv.org/abs/1704.04118v3
  • W. Bledsoe, Neighborly functions, Proceedings of the American Mathematical Society 3:114–115, 1952.
  • C. Berge, Topological Spaces: Including a Treatment of Multi-Valued Functions, Vector Spaces, and Convexity, 1963, pp. 115–116.
  • M. Matejdes, Sur les sélecteurs des multifonctions, Mathematica Slovaca 37(1):111–124, 1987.
  • J. E. Smith, R. L. Winkler, The optimizer's curse: Skepticism and postdecision surprise in decision analysis, Management Science 52(3):311–322, 2006. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.1050.0451
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Convex OptimizationOptimal TransportOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Optimal Transport-Based Distributionally Robust Optimization: Structural Properties and Iterative Schemes 3: The Dual Objective Is √δκ₁-Strongly Convex in (β, λ) Near the Dual OptimizersResearch Paper

Motivation

A decision based on observed data can change when the data law differs from the one used to choose it. Distributionally robust optimization addresses this by evaluating each decision against a family of nearby probability laws. Optimal transport gives one way to define “nearby”: a candidate law is admissible when probability mass can be moved from the baseline law at a bounded expected cost. For a linear decision rule, the resulting worst-case expectation is usually harder to optimize than an ordinary sample-average loss. Blanchet, Murthy, and Zhang identify a dual objective whose variables are the decision vector and a scalar transport multiplier, then study its curvature near the multipliers that actually minimize it (Blanchet–Murthy–Zhang, 2022).

The paper proves that this dual objective is jointly strongly convex on a specified region for sufficiently small transport radius. This matters because ordinary convexity allows flat directions in the joint decision–multiplier space. The joint lower Hessian bound gives local curvature in every direction with one positive modulus that remains independent of the radius apart from the paper's explicit factor δ\sqrt{\delta}δ​ (Theorem 4, p. 11).

Setting

Let X∈RdX\in\mathbb R^dX∈Rd have a baseline probability law P0P_0P0​, and let a decision be a vector β\betaβ in a nonempty compact convex set B⊆RdB\subseteq\mathbb R^dB⊆Rd. The loss of a possible outcome xxx is ℓ(βTx)\ell(\beta^{\mathsf T}x)ℓ(βTx) for a convex function ℓ:R→R\ell:\mathbb R\to\mathbb Rℓ:R→R. A state-dependent positive-definite matrix A(x)A(x)A(x) sets the cost of moving mass from xxx to x′x'x′:

c(x,x′)=(x−x′)TA(x)(x−x′).c(x,x')=(x-x')^{\mathsf T}A(x)(x-x').c(x,x′)=(x−x′)TA(x)(x−x′).

Assumption 1 requires this cost to be lower semicontinuous and the eigenvalues of A(x)A(x)A(x) to lie between positive constants ρmin⁡\rho_{\min}ρmin​ and ρmax⁡\rho_{\max}ρmax​ for P0P_0P0​-almost every xxx. Assumption 2 requires at most quadratic growth of ℓ\ellℓ and a finite fourth moment of P0P_0P0​. The ambiguity radius δ\deltaδ is positive (Assumptions 1–2, pp. 9–10).

The paper's dual objective is an expectation under the known law P0P_0P0​. Write qA(β,x)=βTA(x)−1βq_A(\beta,x)=\beta^{\mathsf T}A(x)^{-1}\betaqA​(β,x)=βTA(x)−1β. For a scalar λ≥0\lambda\ge0λ≥0 and an auxiliary scalar γ\gammaγ, set

F(γ,β,λ;x)=ℓ(βTx+γδ qA(β,x))−λδ(γ2qA(β,x)−1),fδ(β,λ)=EP0 ⁣[sup⁡γ∈RF(γ,β,λ;X)].F(\gamma,\beta,\lambda;x) =\ell\bigl(\beta^{\mathsf T}x+\gamma\sqrt\delta\,q_A(\beta,x)\bigr) -\lambda\sqrt\delta\bigl(\gamma^2q_A(\beta,x)-1\bigr), \qquad f_\delta(\beta,\lambda)=\mathbb E_{P_0}\!\left[\sup_{\gamma\in\mathbb R}F(\gamma,\beta,\lambda;X)\right].F(γ,β,λ;x)=ℓ(βTx+γδ​qA​(β,x))−λδ​(γ2qA​(β,x)−1),fδ​(β,λ)=EP0​​[γ∈Rsup​F(γ,β,λ;X)].

This value may be +∞+\infty+∞. Under the paper's duality conditions, minimizing fδ(β,λ)f_\delta(\beta,\lambda)fδ​(β,λ) over λ≥0\lambda\ge0λ≥0 gives the worst-case loss at β\betaβ (Theorem 1 and (7), p. 10).

Formalization targets

Assumption 3 bounds ℓ′′\ell''ℓ′′ above by M>0M>0M>0 and excludes an almost surely zero ℓ′(βTX)\ell'(\beta^{\mathsf T}X)ℓ′(βTX) for each β∈B\beta\in Bβ∈B. Assumption 4 makes BBB compact. Lemma 6 supplies positive constants L‾,L‾\underline L,\overline LL​,L bounding EP0[ℓ′(βTX)2]\mathbb E_{P_0}[\ell'(\beta^{\mathsf T}X)^2]EP0​​[ℓ′(βTX)2] uniformly over BBB. With Rβ=sup⁡β∈B∥β∥R_\beta=\sup_{\beta\in B}\|\beta\|Rβ​=supβ∈B​∥β∥, the constants K1,K2K_1,K_2K1​,K2​ are those of (28), and

Vδ={(β,λ):β∈B, λ≥0, K1∥β∥≤λ≤K2∥β∥}.\mathbb V_\delta=\{(\beta,\lambda):\beta\in B,\ \lambda\ge0,\ K_1\|\beta\|\le\lambda\le K_2\|\beta\|\}.Vδ​={(β,λ):β∈B, λ≥0, K1​∥β∥≤λ≤K2​∥β∥}.

Theorem 3 first gives a bounded Hessian on Vδ\mathbb V_\deltaVδ​ and a positive lower bound on its β\betaβ block when 0<δ<δ00<\delta<\delta_00<δ<δ0​, with the explicit δ0\delta_0δ0​ from p. 36. The goal, Theorem 4, adds Assumption 5: ℓ\ellℓ is locally strongly convex and, at each β∈B\beta\in Bβ∈B, the loss derivative and the linear score are simultaneously separated from zero with positive probability. It asserts the joint bound

∃ δ1∈(0,δ0), κ1>0∀ δ∈(0,δ1), ∀ θ∈Vδ:∇2fδ(θ)⪰δ κ1Id+1.\exists\,\delta_1\in(0,\delta_0),\ \kappa_1>0\quad \forall\,\delta\in(0,\delta_1),\ \forall\,\theta\in\mathbb V_\delta:\quad \nabla^2 f_\delta(\theta)\succeq\sqrt\delta\,\kappa_1 I_{d+1}.∃δ1​∈(0,δ0​), κ1​>0∀δ∈(0,δ1​), ∀θ∈Vδ​:∇2fδ​(θ)⪰δ​κ1​Id+1​.

The order of the quantifiers is part of the target: κ1\kappa_1κ1​ works for every sufficiently small δ\deltaδ (Theorems 3–4, p. 11).

Significance

The Hessian bound makes the joint dual parameters locally identifiable by curvature on a region that contains every dual optimizer. In the paper, this structure also underlies the analysis of algorithms and of how the optimizer changes with the transport radius (Proposition 1, p. 11; §3 and §5.4). Theorem 4 is already proved in the paper; this mission asks for its machine-checked formalization, together with the stated bounds on multipliers, the maximizing scalar, and the intermediate curvature results. The general optimal-transport integral used here already has a published Prove2Me definition from Blanchet and Murthy's earlier model-risk work. The new definitions specify this paper's Mahalanobis model, regions, and smoothness assumptions.

Difficulty

Convexity alone gives only a nonnegative Hessian; it cannot produce a strictly positive joint lower bound. Even curvature of ℓ\ellℓ does not by itself control directions that combine a change in β\betaβ with a change in λ\lambdaλ. The inner supremum over γ\gammaγ can become infinite outside its effective domain, while at β=0\beta=0β=0 its maximizer ceases to be unique. The theorem therefore needs a region where the dual objective is finite and differentiable and a probabilistic condition that prevents the relevant score and derivative from vanishing together. The target keeps the actual δ\sqrt\deltaδ​ scale instead of settling for a radius-dependent positive constant (§2.2.2 and Remark 4, pp. 10–12, 39).

Formalization scope

Lean uses EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin d) for Rd\mathbb R^dRd, a Borel probability measure for P0P_0P0​, and EReal for fδf_\deltafδ​ and the inner supremum. The reused extended-real integral records the +∞+\infty+∞ and −∞-\infty−∞ cases; the Hessian is taken only where fδf_\deltafδ​ is finite on a neighborhood and its real representative is differentiable there. Quadratic Hessian forms use ∥vβ∥2+vλ2\|v_\beta\|^2+v_\lambda^2∥vβ​∥2+vλ2​, since Lean's product norm is not the paper's Euclidean norm. The compact set BBB is explicitly nonempty, and the positive ambiguity radius δ\deltaδ is quantified inside the goal so that δ1\delta_1δ1​ and κ1\kappa_1κ1​ are uniform in δ\deltaδ. Theorem 3 additionally assumes Rβ>0R_\beta>0Rβ​>0 for the proof's explicit formula for δ0\delta_0δ0​: nonempty compact B={0}B=\{0\}B={0} would make that formula zero. Assumption 5 already gives Rβ>0R_\beta>0Rβ​>0 in the goal.

The goal retains Assumption 5's per-decision quantifiers. That assumption itself excludes 0∈B0\in B0∈B: its strict score event is empty at β=0\beta=0β=0. Intermediate statements where the printed wording includes β=0\beta=0β=0 but the claim fails there state β≠0\beta\ne0β=0 explicitly. Lemma 5 also states the differentiability and positive-multiplier conditions needed for its derivative and division. Proposition 9(b)'s printed strict curvature-margin inequality is corrected to the nonstrict inequality derived in its proof; its original wording is preserved in the milestone quotation. The claims are about the expectation fδf_\deltafδ​, with κ1\kappa_1κ1​ independent of δ\deltaδ, rather than a pointwise or merely convex substitute.

A complete development needs measurable extended-real integration, the matrix quadratic form and its inverse, almost-everywhere spectral bounds, differentiability under an expectation, and Hessian estimates for an optimized scalar. The transport integral, the assumptions and constants, and the multiplier bounds are intended as reusable interfaces for the companion missions. Contributions that close the listed lemmas or add the paper's omitted second-order kernel formula are within scope.

Selected references

  • José Blanchet, Karthyek Murthy, and Fan Zhang, Optimal Transport-Based Distributionally Robust Optimization: Structural Properties and Iterative Schemes, Mathematics of Operations Research 47(2), 2022. arXiv:1810.02403v3; DOI:10.1287/moor.2021.1178.
  • José Blanchet and Karthyek Murthy, Quantifying Distributional Model Risk via Optimal Transport, Mathematics of Operations Research 44(2), 2019. arXiv:1604.01446v2.
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Complexity TheoryLinear OptimizationOptimization+1·Captain: mikedeng1

A Comment on "Computational Complexity of Stochastic Programming Problems" 3: An ε-Optimal Decision of the Random-Recourse Program (11) Decides the Integer Feasibility ProblemResearch Paper

Motivation

A linear two-stage stochastic program chooses a first-stage decision xxx before an uncertain parameter ξ~\tilde\xiξ~​ is revealed, and pays the optimal value Q(x,ξ)Q(x,\xi)Q(x,ξ) of a second-stage linear program once the realization ξ\xiξ is known. Such programs are the basic model of planning under uncertainty in operations research, and their computational complexity determines which solution methods can be expected to work. In 2006, Dyer and Stougie argued that linear two-stage stochastic programs with fixed recourse are #P-hard even when the random data follow independent uniform distributions. Hanasusanto, Kuhn and Wiesemann showed that this proof is not correct and gave a corrected one, which also covers approximate evaluation to sufficiently high accuracy; their note also shows that, when the second-stage constraint matrix itself depends on ξ\xiξ (random recourse), even finding an approximately optimal decision is strongly NP-hard.

This mission formalizes that last result, Theorem 4 of the note. The previous missions of the series treat the hardness of evaluating the expected recourse with fixed and with random recourse.

Setting

The Integer Feasibility Problem. An instance is an integer matrix A∈Zm×nA\in\mathbb Z^{m\times n}A∈Zm×n and an integer vector b∈Zmb\in\mathbb Z^mb∈Zm such that the polytope {y∈Rn:Ay≤b}\{y\in\mathbb R^n:Ay\le b\}{y∈Rn:Ay≤b} lies in the unit cube [0,1]n[0,1]^n[0,1]n. The question is whether some binary vector y∈{0,1}ny\in\{0,1\}^ny∈{0,1}n satisfies Ay≤bAy\le bAy≤b. This problem is strongly NP-hard (Garey and Johnson).

The second-stage problem. For a decision x∈Rx\in\mathbb Rx∈R and a realization ξ∈[0,1]n\xi\in[0,1]^nξ∈[0,1]n, write eee for the all-ones vector and consider

Q(x,ξ)= minimize  e⊤ysubject to  y∈R+n, λ∈R+m, x≥e⊤y,yi≥ξi+(b−Aξ)⊤λ,yi≥(1−ξi)+(b−Aξ)⊤λ(i=1,…,n).\begin{aligned} Q(x,\xi)=\ \text{minimize}\ \ & e^\top y\\ \text{subject to}\ \ & y\in\mathbb R^n_+,\ \lambda\in\mathbb R^m_+,\ x\ge e^\top y,\\ & y_i\ge \xi_i+(b-A\xi)^\top\lambda,\quad y_i\ge(1-\xi_i)+(b-A\xi)^\top\lambda\qquad(i=1,\dots,n). \end{aligned}Q(x,ξ)= minimize  subject to  ​e⊤yy∈R+n​, λ∈R+m​, x≥e⊤y,yi​≥ξi​+(b−Aξ)⊤λ,yi​≥(1−ξi​)+(b−Aξ)⊤λ(i=1,…,n).​

The coefficient of λ\lambdaλ in each constraint depends on ξ\xiξ, which is what makes the recourse random.

Problem (11). With ξ~\tilde\xiξ~​ uniformly distributed on [0,1]n[0,1]^n[0,1]n,

minimize  x+E[Q(x,ξ~)]subject to  x∈R.\text{minimize}\ \ x+\mathbb E\big[Q(x,\tilde\xi)\big]\quad\text{subject to}\ \ x\in\mathbb R .minimize  x+E[Q(x,ξ~​)]subject to  x∈R.

The second stage is not feasible for every xxx (the problem lacks relatively complete recourse), so a decision xxx is feasible only if the second stage is feasible for every ξ∈[0,1]n\xi\in[0,1]^nξ∈[0,1]n. Let f⋆f^\starf⋆ be the infimum of the objective over feasible decisions. A feasible xxx is ϵ\epsilonϵ-optimal if

∣f⋆−(x+E[Q(x,ξ~)])∣max⁡{∣f⋆∣,1}≤ϵ.\frac{\big|f^\star-\big(x+\mathbb E[Q(x,\tilde\xi)]\big)\big|}{\max\{|f^\star|,1\}}\le\epsilon .max{∣f⋆∣,1}​f⋆−(x+E[Q(x,ξ~​)])​​≤ϵ.

The constant ϵ′\epsilon'ϵ′. Lemma 4 fixes ϵ′\epsilon'ϵ′ with 0≤ϵ′<120\le\epsilon'<\tfrac120≤ϵ′<21​ and ϵ′∑j∣Aij∣<1\epsilon'\sum_j|A_{ij}|<1ϵ′∑j​∣Aij​∣<1 for every row iii.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 4 as a reduction

For an instance with nonempty polytope, n≥1n\ge1n≥1, ϵ′\epsilon'ϵ′ as above, 0≤ϵ<ϵ′/(4n)0\le\epsilon<\epsilon'/(4n)0≤ϵ<ϵ′/(4n), and any ϵ\epsilonϵ-optimal decision xxx of (11),

∃ y∈{0,1}n: Ay≤b  ⟺  x>n−ϵ′2.\exists\,y\in\{0,1\}^n:\ Ay\le b\iff x>n-\frac{\epsilon'}{2}.∃y∈{0,1}n: Ay≤b⟺x>n−2ϵ′​.

This is the mathematical content of "determining an ϵ\epsilonϵ-optimal decision is strongly NP-hard whenever ϵ<ϵ′/4n\epsilon<\epsilon'/4nϵ<ϵ′/4n": a single comparison of any approximate decision with a threshold answers the NP-hard question.

Milestones

  1. Lemma 4. Ay≤bAy\le bAy≤b has a binary solution iff it has a solution in ([0,ϵ′]∪[1−ϵ′,1])n([0,\epsilon']\cup[1-\epsilon',1])^n([0,ϵ′]∪[1−ϵ′,1])n.
  2. The second stage. If Aξ≤bA\xi\le bAξ≤b, the second stage is feasible iff ∑imax⁡{ξi,1−ξi}≤x\sum_i\max\{\xi_i,1-\xi_i\}\le x∑i​max{ξi​,1−ξi​}≤x, with value ∑imax⁡{ξi,1−ξi}\sum_i\max\{\xi_i,1-\xi_i\}∑i​max{ξi​,1−ξi​}; otherwise it is feasible iff x≥0x\ge0x≥0, with value 000. Optimal yyy is unique in both cases.
  3. The optimal decision. xxx is feasible iff x≥x⋆x\ge x^\starx≥x⋆, and x⋆x^\starx⋆ is the unique optimal decision, where
x⋆=max⁡{∑i=1nmax⁡{ξi,1−ξi}:Aξ≤b}.x^\star=\max\Big\{\sum_{i=1}^n\max\{\xi_i,1-\xi_i\}:A\xi\le b\Big\}.x⋆=max{i=1∑n​max{ξi​,1−ξi​}:Aξ≤b}.
  1. The dichotomy. The answer is affirmative iff x⋆=nx^\star=nx⋆=n, and negative iff x⋆<n−ϵ′x^\star<n-\epsilon'x⋆<n−ϵ′.
  2. Accuracy of the decision. Every ϵ\epsilonϵ-optimal xxx satisfies ∣x⋆−x∣≤2nϵ|x^\star-x|\le2n\epsilon∣x⋆−x∣≤2nϵ.

Significance

The result. Theorem 4 implies that, unless the problems in NP admit an efficient solution scheme, there is no fully polynomial-time approximation scheme for two-stage stochastic programs with random recourse, even with a one-dimensional first stage and a uniform distribution. Together with the #P-hardness results of the same note, it delimits what algorithms such as sample average approximation can guarantee once relatively complete recourse and fixed recourse are dropped.

Formalizing it. The theorem has a short published proof, but that proof leaves several conventions implicit: the index set of the constraint block, the meaning of first-stage feasibility, and the condition on ϵ′\epsilon'ϵ′ when AAA has a zero row. A machine-checked version fixes each of them and verifies that the claimed formula for x⋆x^\starx⋆ is correct under the chosen reading. To our knowledge none of these statements has been formalized before. The objects are elementary (finite-dimensional linear programs, a set integral on the unit cube), and the second-stage solution and rounding lemma are reusable for related reductions from integer feasibility.

Difficulty

The individual steps are short; the difficulty is bookkeeping across three layers. The second stage is an optimisation over (y,λ)(y,\lambda)(y,λ) whose feasibility depends on the sign pattern of b−Aξb-A\xib−Aξ; the first stage requires a supremum over a polytope to be attained (compactness), and the expected recourse to be the same integral for all feasible decisions (integrability of a piecewise-defined value function over the cube). The tempting shortcut, reading off feasibility from the value of QQQ, fails: an infeasible linear program has no meaningful value, and treating it as cost 000 would make every decision look optimal. Similarly, an almost-sure notion of feasibility looks natural for a stochastic program but invalidates the formula for x⋆x^\starx⋆ whenever the polytope has measure zero, as it typically does for integer feasibility instances written with equalities.

Formalization scope

All objects live in SPHardness.IntFeas. Vectors are functions on Fin n and Fin m; AAA and bbb are integer and are cast to R\mathbb RR, and integrality is kept because Lemma 4 depends on it. The uniform law on [0,1]n[0,1]^n[0,1]n is Lebesgue measure restricted to the cube (volume 111); expectations are set integrals. The recourse value, f⋆f^\starf⋆ and x⋆x^\starx⋆ are sInf/sSup in R\mathbb RR, and second-stage feasibility, first-stage feasibility and ϵ\epsilonϵ-optimality are separate predicates, so no statement depends on the junk value of an empty infimum.

Pinned readings and added conventions:

  • The page writes the constraint block as "∀i=1,…,m\forall i=1,\dots,m∀i=1,…,m" and x⋆x^\starx⋆ with ∑i=1m\sum_{i=1}^m∑i=1m​, adding "n=m=kn=m=kn=m=k". Here the block ranges over i=1,…,ni=1,\dots,ni=1,…,n, ξ∈[0,1]n\xi\in[0,1]^nξ∈[0,1]n, and mmm (the number of rows of AAA) is arbitrary.
  • First-stage feasibility is robust: feasible for every ξ∈[0,1]n\xi\in[0,1]^nξ∈[0,1]n, not almost every ξ\xiξ.
  • ϵ′<min⁡i{(∑j∣Aij∣)−1}\epsilon'<\min_i\{(\sum_j|A_{ij}|)^{-1}\}ϵ′<mini​{(∑j​∣Aij​∣)−1} is encoded as ϵ′∑j∣Aij∣<1\epsilon'\sum_j|A_{ij}|<1ϵ′∑j​∣Aij​∣<1 for every row, together with 0≤ϵ′<120\le\epsilon'<\tfrac120≤ϵ′<21​.
  • Added hypotheses, all disclosed in the statements: the polytope {Aξ≤b}\{A\xi\le b\}{Aξ≤b} is nonempty (the proof's own assumption), n≥1n\ge1n≥1, and ϵ≥0\epsilon\ge0ϵ≥0.

Strong NP-hardness, the FPTAS consequence, running times and encoding lengths are not formalized; the goal is the correctness of the reduction. A statement in which xxx ranges over arbitrary reals satisfying a hypothesised identity, rather than over ϵ\epsilonϵ-optimal decisions of the program (11) built from (A,b)(A,b)(A,b), would be trivial and is ruled out: every object in the goal is defined from the instance.

Contributions welcome: proofs of the milestones, in particular measurability and integrability of the recourse function on the cube and attainment of x⋆x^\starx⋆, which are reusable for other piecewise-linear recourse functions.

Selected references

  • G. A. Hanasusanto, D. Kuhn, W. Wiesemann, A comment on "computational complexity of stochastic programming problems", Mathematical Programming (2016); preprint Optimization Online 2015/03/4825 (version of October 6, 2015). https://optimization-online.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/4825.pdf, DOI https://doi.org/10.1007/s10107-015-0958-2
  • M. Dyer, L. Stougie, Computational complexity of stochastic programming problems, Mathematical Programming 106 (2006) 423–432. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10107-005-0597-0
  • M. R. Garey, D. S. Johnson, Computers and Intractability: A Guide to the Theory of NP-Completeness, W. H. Freeman, 1979.
  • J. R. Birge, F. Louveaux, Introduction to Stochastic Programming, Springer, 1997 (2nd ed. 2011, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4614-0237-4).
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Numerical AnalysisOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

The Proximal Alternating Direction Method of Multipliers in the Nonconvex Setting: Convergence Analysis and Rates 2: Finite, Linear or Sublinear Rates for the Iterates Under the Łojasiewicz PropertyResearch Paper

Motivation

The alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM) is one of the standard splitting methods for problems of the form min⁡x{g(Ax)+h(x)}\min_x\{g(Ax) + h(x)\}minx​{g(Ax)+h(x)}, in which a nonsmooth term acts on a linear image of the variable. It is used in signal and image processing, statistical learning and matrix completion, and in many of these applications ggg or hhh is nonconvex: sparsity penalties such as ℓ0\ell_0ℓ0​ or ℓp\ell_pℓp​ with p<1p<1p<1, rank constraints, or indicator functions of nonconvex sets. For convex problems the convergence theory of ADMM is classical; for nonconvex problems the questions of whether, and how fast, the iterates converge were open until the last decade.

R. I. Boţ and D.-K. Nguyen (arXiv:1801.01994v2, Math. Oper. Res. 45(2), 2020, DOI) analyse a proximal ADMM with variable metrics and its linearized variant in the nonconvex setting. Their first main result (Theorem 14, the subject of the companion mission of this series) shows that bounded iterates converge to a KKT point when a regularization of the augmented Lagrangian has the Kurdyka–Łojasiewicz property. This mission formalizes their second main result, Theorem 20: when that function has the Łojasiewicz property with exponent θ\thetaθ, the iterates converge in finitely many steps, linearly, or sublinearly, according to the value of θ\thetaθ.

Timeline. Łojasiewicz (1963) proved his gradient inequality for real-analytic functions; Attouch and Bolte (Math. Program. 2009) derived from its nonsmooth version the rates θ=0\theta=0θ=0 / θ∈(0,12]\theta\in(0,\frac12]θ∈(0,21​] / θ∈(12,1)\theta\in(\frac12,1)θ∈(21​,1) for the proximal point algorithm; Bolte, Sabach and Teboulle (Math. Program. 2014) gave a general KL-based convergence scheme (PALM); Li and Pong (SIAM J. Optim. 2015) proved convergence of a proximal ADMM under KL assumptions; Boţ and Nguyen (2018/2020) treated variable metrics, relaxation parameters ρ∈(0,2)\rho\in(0,2)ρ∈(0,2), and the linearized variant, with explicit rates.

Setting

Let g:Rm→R∪{+∞}g:\mathbb R^m\to\mathbb R\cup\{+\infty\}g:Rm→R∪{+∞} be proper and lower semicontinuous, h:Rn→Rh:\mathbb R^n\to\mathbb Rh:Rn→R differentiable with LLL-Lipschitz gradient, and A:Rn→RmA:\mathbb R^n\to\mathbb R^mA:Rn→Rm linear. The augmented Lagrangian with parameter r>0r>0r>0 is

Lr(x,z,y)=g(z)+h(x)+⟨y,Ax−z⟩+r2∥Ax−z∥2.L_r(x,z,y) = g(z) + h(x) + \langle y, Ax - z\rangle + \frac r2\|Ax-z\|^2 .Lr​(x,z,y)=g(z)+h(x)+⟨y,Ax−z⟩+2r​∥Ax−z∥2.

Given positive semidefinite matrices M1kM_1^kM1k​, M2kM_2^kM2k​ and ρ∈(0,2)\rho\in(0,2)ρ∈(0,2), Algorithm 1 produces (xk,zk,yk)k≥0(x^k,z^k,y^k)_{k\ge0}(xk,zk,yk)k≥0​ from any starting point by: zk+1z^{k+1}zk+1 minimizes Lr(xk,z,yk)+12∥z−zk∥M2k2L_r(x^k,z,y^k) + \frac12\|z-z^k\|^2_{M_2^k}Lr​(xk,z,yk)+21​∥z−zk∥M2k​2​; xk+1x^{k+1}xk+1 minimizes Lr(x,zk+1,yk)+12∥x−xk∥M1k2L_r(x,z^{k+1},y^k) + \frac12\|x-x^k\|^2_{M_1^k}Lr​(x,zk+1,yk)+21​∥x−xk∥M1k​2​; and yk+1=yk+ρr(Axk+1−zk+1)y^{k+1} = y^k + \rho r(Ax^{k+1} - z^{k+1})yk+1=yk+ρr(Axk+1−zk+1). Algorithm 2 replaces h(x)h(x)h(x) in the xxx-step by ⟨x−xk,∇h(xk)⟩\langle x - x^k,\nabla h(x^k)\rangle⟨x−xk,∇h(xk)⟩.

Assumption 2 requires ggg and hhh to be bounded below, AAA to be surjective with λ∥y∥2≤∥A∗y∥2\lambda\|y\|^2\le\|A^*y\|^2λ∥y∥2≤∥A∗y∥2 (λ>0\lambda>0λ>0), ∥M1k∥≤μ1\|M_1^k\|\le\mu_1∥M1k​∥≤μ1​, ∥M2k∥≤μ2\|M_2^k\|\le\mu_2∥M2k​∥≤μ2​, r≥4T0L>0r\ge4T_0L>0r≥4T0​L>0, and 2M1k+rA∗A⪰(L+CM′/r) Id2M_1^k + rA^*A\succeq(L + C'_{\mathbf M}/r)\,\mathrm{Id}2M1k​+rA∗A⪰(L+CM′​/r)Id for all kkk, where T0T_0T0​ and CM′C'_{\mathbf M}CM′​ are explicit functions of λ,ρ,L,μ1\lambda,\rho,L,\mu_1λ,ρ,L,μ1​.

The analysis runs on the regularized augmented Lagrangian of Section 3

Fr(x,z,y,x′,y′)=Lr(x,z,y)+2T1∥A∗(y−y′)∥2+C1∥x−x′∥2,\mathcal F_r(x,z,y,x',y') = L_r(x,z,y) + 2T_1\|A^*(y-y')\|^2 + C_1\|x-x'\|^2,Fr​(x,z,y,x′,y′)=Lr​(x,z,y)+2T1​∥A∗(y−y′)∥2+C1​∥x−x′∥2,

with explicit constants T1T_1T1​, C1C_1C1​. Along a run, Fk=Fr(xk,zk,yk,xk−1,yk−1)\mathcal F_k = \mathcal F_r(x^k,z^k,y^k,x^{k-1},y^{k-1})Fk​=Fr​(xk,zk,yk,xk−1,yk−1). If the run converges to (x^,z^,y^)(\hat x,\hat z,\hat y)(x^,z^,y^​), put u^=(x^,z^,y^,x^,y^)\hat u = (\hat x,\hat z,\hat y,\hat x,\hat y)u^=(x^,z^,y^​,x^,y^​), F∗=Fr(u^)\mathcal F_* = \mathcal F_r(\hat u)F∗​=Fr​(u^) and Ek=Fk−F∗\mathcal E_k = \mathcal F_k - \mathcal F_*Ek​=Fk​−F∗​. Fr\mathcal F_rFr​ has the Łojasiewicz property at u^\hat uu^ with constant CL>0C_L>0CL​>0 and exponent θ∈[0,1)\theta\in[0,1)θ∈[0,1) if

∣Fr(u)−F∗∣θ≤CLdist⁡(0,∂Fr(u))|\mathcal F_r(u) - \mathcal F_*|^\theta \le C_L\operatorname{dist}(0,\partial\mathcal F_r(u))∣Fr​(u)−F∗​∣θ≤CL​dist(0,∂Fr​(u))

for all uuu near u^\hat uu^, where ∂\partial∂ is the limiting subdifferential.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 20 (p. 28)

Under Assumption 2, for a bounded run converging to (x^,z^,y^)(\hat x,\hat z,\hat y)(x^,z^,y^​) at which Fr\mathcal F_rFr​ has the Łojasiewicz property with exponent θ\thetaθ:

θ=0:(xk,zk,yk)=(x^,z^,y^)  for all large k;\theta = 0:\quad (x^k,z^k,y^k) = (\hat x,\hat z,\hat y)\ \text{ for all large } k;θ=0:(xk,zk,yk)=(x^,z^,y^​)  for all large k; θ∈(0,12]:∥xk−x^∥, ∥yk−y^∥, ∥zk−z^∥≤C^ Q^k,Q^∈[0,1);\theta\in(0,\tfrac12]:\quad \|x^k-\hat x\|,\ \|y^k-\hat y\|,\ \|z^k-\hat z\| \le \hat C\,\hat Q^k,\quad \hat Q\in[0,1);θ∈(0,21​]:∥xk−x^∥, ∥yk−y^​∥, ∥zk−z^∥≤C^Q^​k,Q^​∈[0,1); θ∈(12,1):∥xk−x^∥, ∥yk−y^∥≤C^(k−1)−1−θ2θ−1,∥zk−z^∥≤C^(k−2)−1−θ2θ−1.\theta\in(\tfrac12,1):\quad \|x^k-\hat x\|,\ \|y^k-\hat y\| \le \hat C(k-1)^{-\frac{1-\theta}{2\theta-1}},\quad \|z^k-\hat z\|\le\hat C(k-2)^{-\frac{1-\theta}{2\theta-1}}.θ∈(21​,1):∥xk−x^∥, ∥yk−y^​∥≤C^(k−1)−2θ−11−θ​,∥zk−z^∥≤C^(k−2)−2θ−11−θ​.

All constants are existential and independent of kkk; the goal fixes only the shape of each rate.

Milestones

  1. Lemma 15 (p. 23): a real sequence with ek−l0−ek≥Ceek2θe_{k-l_0} - e_k \ge C_e e_k^{2\theta}ek−l0​​−ek​≥Ce​ek2θ​ decreases to 000 in finite time, linearly, or as (k−l0+1)−1/(2θ−1)(k - l_0 + 1)^{-1/(2\theta-1)}(k−l0​+1)−1/(2θ−1).
  2. Lemma 16 (p. 25): the descent inequality (80) under Assumption 2.
  3. (83) (p. 25): Fk+1+C14∥xk+1−xk∥2+12∥zk+1−zk∥M2k2+1ρr∥yk+1−yk∥2≤Fk\mathcal F_{k+1} + \frac{C_1}4\|x^{k+1}-x^k\|^2 + \frac12\|z^{k+1}-z^k\|^2_{M_2^k} + \frac1{\rho r}\|y^{k+1}-y^k\|^2\le\mathcal F_kFk+1​+4C1​​∥xk+1−xk∥2+21​∥zk+1−zk∥M2k​2​+ρr1​∥yk+1−yk∥2≤Fk​.
  4. The subgradient estimate of p. 26: an explicit Dk+1∈∂FrD^{k+1}\in\partial\mathcal F_rDk+1∈∂Fr​ with ∣∣∣Dk+1∣∣∣≤C14∥xk+1−xk∥+C15∥yk+1−yk∥+C16∥yk−yk−1∥|||D^{k+1}|||\le C_{14}\|x^{k+1}-x^k\| + C_{15}\|y^{k+1}-y^k\| + C_{16}\|y^k-y^{k-1}\|∣∣∣Dk+1∣∣∣≤C14​∥xk+1−xk∥+C15​∥yk+1−yk∥+C16​∥yk−yk−1∥.
  5. Lemma 17 (p. 26): Ek−1−Ek+1≥C19Ek+12θ\mathcal E_{k-1} - \mathcal E_{k+1}\ge C_{19}\mathcal E_{k+1}^{2\theta}Ek−1​−Ek+1​≥C19​Ek+12θ​.
  6. Theorem 18 (p. 27): the three rates for Ek\mathcal E_kEk​.
  7. Lemma 19 (p. 27): ∥xk−x^∥\|x^k-\hat x\|∥xk−x^∥, ∥yk−y^∥\|y^k-\hat y\|∥yk−y^​∥, ∥zk−z^∥\|z^k - \hat z\|∥zk−z^∥ bounded by max⁡{E,φ(E)}\max\{\sqrt{\mathcal E},\varphi(\mathcal E)\}max{E​,φ(E)} with φ(s)=CL1−θs1−θ\varphi(s) = \frac{C_L}{1-\theta}s^{1-\theta}φ(s)=1−θCL​​s1−θ.

Significance

Theorem 20 is the quantitative half of the paper: it converts a local growth condition on one explicit function into convergence rates for the iterates of two practical nonconvex splitting methods. Since semi-algebraic functions satisfy the Łojasiewicz property with some exponent, the theorem applies to most of the sparsity- and rank-type models for which ADMM is used, and it explains when finite termination or linear convergence is to be expected. The intermediate results (Lemma 15 in particular) are the standard route from a Łojasiewicz inequality to rates and recur in the analysis of many first-order methods.

The result is proved in the paper; to our knowledge no part of it has a machine-checked proof. The mission produces a formal statement and proof of the rates, with every constant of the paper defined explicitly, and records where the paper's constants need recomputing: the constants C8C_8C8​ and C10C_{10}C10​ of Lemma 9 are reused on p. 26 for a regularization whose gradient is twice as large.

Difficulty

Lemma 15 is elementary but delicate: the recurrence has a lag l0l_0l0​ and, for θ>12\theta>\frac12θ>21​, a nonlinearity that a direct induction does not control, and the index bookkeeping determines the exponent. The rates for Fk\mathcal F_kFk​ require a bound on an explicit subgradient of Fr\mathcal F_rFr​, whose limiting subdifferential involves the nonsmooth ggg, so the calculus of limiting subgradients for a sum of a lower semicontinuous and a smooth function on a product space is needed. Transferring rates from Fk\mathcal F_kFk​ to the iterates needs a finite-length estimate with explicit constants, uniform in the tail. A tempting shortcut, applying the Łojasiewicz inequality directly to LrL_rLr​, fails: LrL_rLr​ does not decrease along the iterates; only the regularized Fr\mathcal F_rFr​ does.

Formalization scope

Vectors live in EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin n); ggg takes values in EReal and is proper and lower semicontinuous; LrL_rLr​ and Fr\mathcal F_rFr​ take values in EReal. Points of Rn×Rm×Rm×Rn×Rm\mathbb R^n\times\mathbb R^m\times\mathbb R^m\times\mathbb R^n\times\mathbb R^mRn×Rm×Rm×Rn×Rm form a nested WithLp 2 product, so the norm and the inner product are the Euclidean ones of the paper. The limiting subdifferential is the published NonconvexSplitting.Shared.LimitingSubdiff. The two algorithms are the constructors of an inductive type; a run is a relation (any minimizer may be taken), and every statement holds for both. λmin⁡(AA∗)\lambda_{\min}(AA^*)λmin​(AA∗) and sup⁡k∥Mik∥\sup_k\|M_i^k\|supk​∥Mik​∥ are replaced by arbitrary valid bounds. F∗\mathcal F_*F∗​ is Fr(u^)\mathcal F_r(\hat u)Fr​(u^), which the paper shows equals lim⁡kFk\lim_k\mathcal F_klimk​Fk​.

The Łojasiewicz hypothesis requires the inequality for every subgradient, so that dist⁡(0,∅)=+∞\operatorname{dist}(0,\emptyset) = +\inftydist(0,∅)=+∞, and only at points with Fr(u)≠F∗\mathcal F_r(u)\ne\mathcal F_*Fr​(u)=F∗​, the convention 00=00^0 = 000=0; with Lean's 00=10^0 = 100=1 the hypothesis would be unsatisfiable at θ=0\theta = 0θ=0, and a Łojasiewicz hypothesis that no function satisfies, an Assumption 2 that no data satisfy, or a rate whose constant depends on kkk would each make the targets trivial. Assumption 2 together with the run predicate is satisfiable (checked on a one-dimensional instance), and all constants are quantified before kkk.

Labelled corrections: Fr\mathcal F_rFr​ uses C1C_1C1​ as displayed on p. 25 (not C1/2C_1/2C1​/2); C8=4C1+C5C_8 = 4C_1 + C_5C8​=4C1​+C5​ and C10=C7+8T1∥A∥2C_{10} = C_7 + 8T_1\|A\|^2C10​=C7​+8T1​∥A∥2 are recomputed for the Section 3 Fr\mathcal F_rFr​; Lemma 17 asks for k0≥2k_0\ge2k0​≥2; Lemma 19 assumes C1>0C_1>0C1​>0, since for C1=0C_1 = 0C1​=0 the paper's C20C_{20}C20​ is +∞+\infty+∞.

Needed infrastructure: calculus of the limiting subdifferential for the sum of a lower semicontinuous function and a C1C^1C1 function on a product space, the descent lemma, and real-power estimates for sequences. Lemma 15 is independent of ADMM and reusable. Proofs of individual milestones are welcome in any order.

Selected references

  • R. I. Boţ, D.-K. Nguyen, The proximal alternating direction method of multipliers in the nonconvex setting: convergence analysis and rates, Math. Oper. Res. 45(2), 2020. https://arxiv.org/abs/1801.01994 (v2), https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.2019.1008
  • H. Attouch, J. Bolte, On the convergence of the proximal algorithm for nonsmooth functions involving analytic features, Math. Program. 116, 2009. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10107-007-0133-5
  • J. Bolte, S. Sabach, M. Teboulle, Proximal alternating linearized minimization for nonconvex and nonsmooth problems, Math. Program. 146, 2014. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10107-013-0701-9
  • G. Li, T. K. Pong, Global convergence of splitting methods for nonconvex composite optimization, SIAM J. Optim. 25(4), 2015. https://doi.org/10.1137/140998135
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Information TheoryProbabilityStatistics·Captain: mikedeng1

Bootstrap Robust Prescriptive Analytics 3: Any Distance Exceeding the Bootstrap Distance Near Some D Loses the Disappointment Rate −rResearch Paper

Motivation

Data-driven decision making estimates the cost of a decision from training data and then optimizes that estimate. The optimized estimate is biased downwards: the decision that looks best on the training data tends to disappoint on fresh data. Distributionally robust optimization counters this by optimizing the worst case of the estimate over all distributions within a radius rrr of the empirical distribution, measured by a chosen distance function RRR. Many distance functions are in use (φ-divergences, Wasserstein distances, moment sets), and the choice is usually justified by tractability.

Bertsimas and Van Parys, Bootstrap robust prescriptive analytics (arXiv:1711.09974v2), measure disappointment on bootstrap data: resamples drawn with replacement from the training data. Their Theorem 6 shows that with the entropic bootstrap distance BBB the bootstrap disappointment decays exponentially in the sample size at rate at least rrr. Proposition 1, the subject of this mission, is the converse: BBB is the smallest distance function with this guarantee. Any distance that is strictly larger than BBB near some distribution admits a nominal formulation whose disappointment decays strictly slower than e−nre^{-nr}e−nr. The result is in the spirit of Van Parys, Esfahani and Kuhn (arXiv:1704.04118), where the relative entropy is shown to be the optimal ambiguity set for i.i.d. data.

Setting

The distinct training points form a finite set Ωn\Omega_nΩn​, written ι\iotaι in Lean. A distribution on it is a vector D∈RιD\in\mathbb R^\iotaD∈Rι with nonnegative entries summing to one; the simplex of all such vectors is Dn\mathcal D_nDn​. The training data have the empirical distribution Dtr∈DnD_{\rm tr}\in\mathcal D_nDtr​∈Dn​, which gives positive weight to every point of Ωn\Omega_nΩn​.

The bootstrap distance (Definition 6, Eq. (27)) is the relative entropy

B(D,D′)=∑i∈ιDilog⁡DiDi′,B(D,D')=\sum_{i\in\iota}D_i\log\frac{D_i}{D'_i},B(D,D′)=i∈ι∑​Di​logDi′​Di​​,

with 0log⁡0=00\log0=00log0=0 and B(D,D′)=+∞B(D,D')=+\inftyB(D,D′)=+∞ if some Di>0=Di′D_i>0=D'_iDi​>0=Di′​.

A distribution distance function (Definition 4) is a map R:Dn×Dn→(−∞,+∞]R:\mathcal D_n\times\mathcal D_n\to(-\infty,+\infty]R:Dn​×Dn​→(−∞,+∞] that is nonnegative, vanishes exactly on the diagonal (R(D′,D)=0R(D',D)=0R(D′,D)=0 iff D′=DD'=DD′=D), and is convex in its first argument. BBB is one.

A bootstrap sample of size nnn is nnn independent draws from DtrD_{\rm tr}Dtr​ (Eq. (14)); its law is the product DtrnD_{\rm tr}^nDtrn​, and its empirical distribution is Dbs[n]D_{{\rm bs}[n]}Dbs[n]​, the frequency of each point of ι\iotaι among the nnn draws.

A nominal formulation here is a loss G:ι→R+G:\iota\to\mathbb R_+G:ι→R+​ with cost estimator ED[G]=∑iDiGi\mathbb E_D[G]=\sum_iD_iG_iED​[G]=∑i​Di​Gi​. Its robust counterpart (Eq. (24)) replaces the estimate by sup⁡{ED′[G]:D′∈Dn, R(D′,Dtr)≤r}\sup\{\mathbb E_{D'}[G]: D'\in\mathcal D_n,\ R(D',D_{\rm tr})\le r\}sup{ED′​[G]:D′∈Dn​, R(D′,Dtr​)≤r}, and its disappointment set is

R={D∈Dn: ED[G]>sup⁡D′∈Dn, R(D′,Dtr)≤rED′[G]},\mathcal R=\Big\{D\in\mathcal D_n:\ \mathbb E_D[G]>\sup_{D'\in\mathcal D_n,\ R(D',D_{\rm tr})\le r}\mathbb E_{D'}[G]\Big\},R={D∈Dn​: ED​[G]>D′∈Dn​, R(D′,Dtr​)≤rsup​ED′​[G]},

the bootstrap distributions on which the realized cost exceeds the robust budget.

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 1 (p. 16)

Let RRR be a distribution distance function, D∈DnD\in\mathcal D_nD∈Dn​ with B(D,Dtr)=rB(D,D_{\rm tr})=rB(D,Dtr​)=r, and N⊆Dn\mathcal N\subseteq\mathcal D_nN⊆Dn​ a neighbourhood of DDD, open in Dn\mathcal D_nDn​, on which R(⋅,Dtr)>rR(\cdot,D_{\rm tr})>rR(⋅,Dtr​)>r. Then there is a loss G≥0G\ge0G≥0 whose disappointment set satisfies

−r<lim inf⁡n→∞1nlog⁡Dtr∞[Dbs[n]∈R],-r<\liminf_{n\to\infty}\frac1n\log D^\infty_{\rm tr}\big[D_{{\rm bs}[n]}\in\mathcal R\big],−r<n→∞liminf​n1​logDtr∞​[Dbs[n]​∈R],

stated in Lean in the equivalent form: for some ε>0\varepsilon>0ε>0, eventually Dtrn[Dbs[n]∈R]≥e−n(r−ε)D^n_{\rm tr}[D_{{\rm bs}[n]}\in\mathcal R]\ge e^{-n(r-\varepsilon)}Dtrn​[Dbs[n]​∈R]≥e−n(r−ε).

Milestones (Appendix B.2, p. 27, and Eq. (31), p. 16)

  1. Separation. The RRR-ball {R(⋅,Dtr)≤r}\{R(\cdot,D_{\rm tr})\le r\}{R(⋅,Dtr​)≤r} and a convex open N\mathcal NN on which R>rR>rR>r are separated by a linear functional: ED[G]≤a<ED′[G]\mathbb E_D[G]\le a<\mathbb E_{D'}[G]ED​[G]≤a<ED′​[G].
  2. Inclusion. For such GGG and aaa, int N=N⊆R{\rm int}\,\mathcal N=\mathcal N\subseteq\mathcal RintN=N⊆R.
  3. Sanov's lower bound (31). −inf⁡D∈int CB(D,Dtr)≤lim inf⁡n1nlog⁡Dtr∞[Dbs[n]∈C]-\inf_{D\in{\rm int}\,\mathcal C}B(D,D_{\rm tr})\le\liminf_n\frac1n\log D^\infty_{\rm tr}[D_{{\rm bs}[n]}\in\mathcal C]−infD∈intC​B(D,Dtr​)≤liminfn​n1​logDtr∞​[Dbs[n]​∈C] for every set C\mathcal CC.
  4. Convexity step. B(λD+(1−λ)Dtr,Dtr)≤λB(D,Dtr)+(1−λ)B(Dtr,Dtr)<rB(\lambda D+(1-\lambda)D_{\rm tr},D_{\rm tr})\le\lambda B(D,D_{\rm tr})+(1-\lambda)B(D_{\rm tr},D_{\rm tr})<rB(λD+(1−λ)Dtr​,Dtr​)≤λB(D,Dtr​)+(1−λ)B(Dtr​,Dtr​)<r for λ∈(0,1)\lambda\in(0,1)λ∈(0,1).
  5. Infimum below rrr. inf⁡D′∈NB(D′,Dtr)<r\inf_{D'\in\mathcal N}B(D',D_{\rm tr})<rinfD′∈N​B(D′,Dtr​)<r.

Significance

Proposition 1 turns Theorem 6 from a sufficient condition into a characterization. Theorem 6 says the bootstrap distance guarantees disappointment rate rrr; Proposition 1 says no distance function that is larger than BBB on an open set does, for some nominal formulation. A practitioner who wants the bootstrap guarantee with the least conservative ambiguity set therefore has no better choice than BBB in this sense. The result is one instance of a pattern in data-driven optimization, where large-deviation rate functions appear as the optimal ambiguity sets.

The paper's proof is a short combination of three standard facts: strict separation of convex sets, Sanov's theorem, and convexity of relative entropy. None of the three is available on the platform in the form needed. Sanov's theorem for empirical distributions on a finite alphabet has no machine-checked proof in Mathlib or on the platform; the lower bound (31) is a self-contained, reusable result of independent interest. The separation step needs strict separation inside the affine hull of the simplex, which Mathlib provides only in the ambient vector space. The result is proved on paper; none of it is formalized.

Difficulty

The separation and convexity steps are routine once the relative topology of the simplex is handled. The central difficulty is the lower bound (31), a large-deviation lower bound for the empirical distribution of i.i.d. draws. The bootstrap probability of an event is a sum of multinomial probabilities over the empirical distributions with denominator nnn that fall in the event, and the bound must hold for every point of the relative interior, including points on the boundary of the simplex, where some coordinates vanish and the distance BBB is not differentiable. An argument that only treats distributions of full support, or only open sets of Rι\mathbb R^\iotaRι, does not cover these points.

A second difficulty is bookkeeping between the three topologies in play: the ambient space Rι\mathbb R^\iotaRι, the simplex Dn\mathcal D_nDn​, and the affine hull in which separation takes place.

Formalization scope

  • Ωn\Omega_nΩn​ is a finite type ι\iotaι with decidable equality; distributions are stdSimplex ℝ ι. Covariates, responses, neighbourhood weights and the decision zzz are abstracted away: the nominal formulation is the estimator D↦∑iDiGiD\mapsto\sum_iD_iG_iD↦∑i​Di​Gi​ (the estimator (18) with k=nk=nk=n and unit weights), so the robust prescription ztrr(x0)z^r_{\rm tr}(x_0)ztrr​(x0​) plays no role.
  • DtrD_{\rm tr}Dtr​ has all coordinates positive (the support convention of the paper).
  • BBB and RRR are EReal-valued; convexity of RRR is written out in EReal. The supremum defining R\mathcal RR is an EReal supremum. It is never empty, because DtrD_{\rm tr}Dtr​ lies in the RRR-ball, so R\mathcal RR cannot collapse to all of Dn\mathcal D_nDn​.
  • The bootstrap law is the nnn-fold product Measure.pi of ∑iDtr,i δi\sum_iD_{{\rm tr},i}\,\delta_i∑i​Dtr,i​δi​, with DtrD_{\rm tr}Dtr​ fixed while n→∞n\to\inftyn→∞.
  • "Open" and "int" are relative to Dn\mathcal D_nDn​. With the ambient topology, no nonempty subset of the simplex is open and every interior is empty, which would make Proposition 1 and (31) vacuous; this formalization rules that out, as it rules out a junk real logarithm (log⁡0=0\log0=0log0=0) by using the explicit-ε\varepsilonε form of every rate statement.
  • Disclosed additions: the separation milestone assumes N\mathcal NN is convex, nonempty and inside the relative interior of the simplex; the infimum milestone assumes r>0r>0r>0, which holds in Proposition 1.

A complete development needs the method of types on a finite alphabet, strict separation in an affine subspace, and the convexity of relative entropy. The method-of-types lower bound is reusable well beyond this mission (hypothesis testing, large deviations of empirical measures). Proofs of any milestone, and alternative proofs of (31), are welcome.

Selected references

  • D. Bertsimas, B. Van Parys, Bootstrap robust prescriptive analytics, arXiv:1711.09974v2, 2021; Mathematical Programming, 2021. https://arxiv.org/abs/1711.09974
  • A. Dembo, O. Zeitouni, Large Deviations Techniques and Applications, 2nd ed., Springer, 2009 (Theorem 6.2.10, Sanov's theorem). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-03311-7
  • B. Van Parys, P. Mohajerin Esfahani, D. Kuhn, From data to decisions: distributionally robust optimization is optimal, Management Science 67(6), 2021. https://arxiv.org/abs/1704.04118
  • I. Csiszár, The method of types, IEEE Transactions on Information Theory 44(6), 1998. https://doi.org/10.1109/18.720546
  • B. Efron, The Jackknife, the Bootstrap and Other Resampling Plans, SIAM, 1982. https://doi.org/10.1137/1.9781611970319
8 thms1 active userReviewed
Convex OptimizationOptimal TransportOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Optimal Transport-Based Distributionally Robust Optimization: Structural Properties and Iterative Schemes 2: The Dual Objective f_δ(β, λ) = E_P0[ℓ_rob(β, λ; X)] Is Proper and ConvexResearch Paper

Motivation

Distributionally robust optimization (DRO) replaces the expected loss EP0[ℓ(βTX)]E_{P_0}[\ell(\beta^{\mathsf T}X)]EP0​​[ℓ(βTX)] of a decision β\betaβ under a baseline distribution P0P_0P0​ by its worst case over all distributions PPP that are close to P0P_0P0​. When closeness is measured by an optimal transport cost, the worst case over this infinite-dimensional ball has a one-dimensional dual: by Theorem 1 of Blanchet, Murthy and Zhang (arXiv:1810.02403v3, Math. Oper. Res. 47(2), 2022), building on the strong duality of Blanchet and Murthy (arXiv:1604.01446),

sup⁡P:Dc(P0,P)≤δEP[ℓ(βTX)]=inf⁡λ≥0fδ(β,λ).\sup_{P : D_c(P_0, P) \le \delta} E_P\big[\ell(\beta^{\mathsf T}X)\big] = \inf_{\lambda \ge 0} f_\delta(\beta, \lambda).P:Dc​(P0​,P)≤δsup​EP​[ℓ(βTX)]=λ≥0inf​fδ​(β,λ).

The robust problem inf⁡β∈Bsup⁡PEP[ℓ(βTX)]\inf_{\beta \in B} \sup_P E_P[\ell(\beta^{\mathsf T}X)]infβ∈B​supP​EP​[ℓ(βTX)] thus becomes a joint minimization of the dual objective fδf_\deltafδ​ over (β,λ)(\beta, \lambda)(β,λ). Whether that minimization is a convex program, and on which set the objective is finite, decides whether first-order methods such as the stochastic gradient schemes of the same paper apply at all. This mission formalizes the paper's answer, Theorem 2.

Setting

The data XXX take values in Rd\mathbb{R}^dRd with law P0P_0P0​, a Borel probability measure. A decision is a vector β\betaβ in a convex set B⊆RdB \subseteq \mathbb{R}^dB⊆Rd, the loss is ℓ(βTx)\ell(\beta^{\mathsf T}x)ℓ(βTx) for ℓ:R→R\ell : \mathbb{R} \to \mathbb{R}ℓ:R→R, and δ>0\delta > 0δ>0 is the transport budget.

The transport cost is the state-dependent Mahalanobis cost c(x,x′)=(x−x′)TA(x)(x−x′)c(x, x') = (x - x')^{\mathsf T}A(x)(x - x')c(x,x′)=(x−x′)TA(x)(x−x′) for a map AAA from Rd\mathbb{R}^dRd to positive definite d×dd \times dd×d matrices. Assumption 1: ccc is lower semicontinuous (1a), and ρmin⁡∥v∥2≤vTA(x)v≤ρmax⁡∥v∥2\rho_{\min}\|v\|^2 \le v^{\mathsf T}A(x)v \le \rho_{\max}\|v\|^2ρmin​∥v∥2≤vTA(x)v≤ρmax​∥v∥2 for P0P_0P0​-almost every xxx, with ρmin⁡>0\rho_{\min} > 0ρmin​>0 (1b). Write qβ(x)=βTA(x)−1βq_\beta(x) = \beta^{\mathsf T}A(x)^{-1}\betaqβ​(x)=βTA(x)−1β.

Assumption 2: ℓ\ellℓ is convex, its growth exponent

κ=inf⁡{s≥0:sup⁡u∈R(ℓ(u)−su2)<∞}\kappa = \inf\Big\{ s \ge 0 : \sup_{u \in \mathbb{R}} \big(\ell(u) - s u^2\big) < \infty \Big\}κ=inf{s≥0:u∈Rsup​(ℓ(u)−su2)<∞}

is finite, and EP0∥X∥4<∞E_{P_0}\|X\|^4 < \inftyEP0​​∥X∥4<∞.

For γ∈R\gamma \in \mathbb{R}γ∈R, λ≥0\lambda \ge 0λ≥0 and x∈Rdx \in \mathbb{R}^dx∈Rd define, as in display (7),

F(γ,β,λ;x)=ℓ(βTx+γδ qβ(x))−λδ(γ2qβ(x)−1),F(\gamma, \beta, \lambda; x) = \ell\big(\beta^{\mathsf T}x + \gamma\sqrt{\delta}\, q_\beta(x)\big) - \lambda\sqrt{\delta}\big(\gamma^2 q_\beta(x) - 1\big),F(γ,β,λ;x)=ℓ(βTx+γδ​qβ​(x))−λδ​(γ2qβ​(x)−1),

the robust loss ℓrob(β,λ;x)=sup⁡γ∈RF(γ,β,λ;x)∈R∪{+∞}\ell_{rob}(\beta, \lambda; x) = \sup_{\gamma \in \mathbb{R}} F(\gamma, \beta, \lambda; x) \in \mathbb{R} \cup \{+\infty\}ℓrob​(β,λ;x)=supγ∈R​F(γ,β,λ;x)∈R∪{+∞}, its set of maximizers Γ∗(β,λ;x)\Gamma^*(\beta, \lambda; x)Γ∗(β,λ;x), and the dual objective

fδ(β,λ)=EP0[ℓrob(β,λ;X)]∈R∪{±∞}.f_\delta(\beta, \lambda) = E_{P_0}\big[\ell_{rob}(\beta, \lambda; X)\big] \in \mathbb{R} \cup \{\pm\infty\}.fδ​(β,λ)=EP0​​[ℓrob​(β,λ;X)]∈R∪{±∞}.

The effective domain is U={(β,λ)∈B×R+:fδ(β,λ)<∞}\mathbb{U} = \{(\beta, \lambda) \in B \times \mathbb{R}_+ : f_\delta(\beta, \lambda) < \infty\}U={(β,λ)∈B×R+​:fδ​(β,λ)<∞}, and with the threshold λthr(β)=κδ ess sup⁡P0qβ\lambda_{thr}(\beta) = \kappa\sqrt{\delta}\,\operatorname{ess\,sup}_{P_0} q_\betaλthr​(β)=κδ​esssupP0​​qβ​ the paper sets U1={λ>λthr(β)}\mathbb{U}_1 = \{\lambda > \lambda_{thr}(\beta)\}U1​={λ>λthr​(β)} and U2={λ≥λthr(β)}\mathbb{U}_2 = \{\lambda \ge \lambda_{thr}(\beta)\}U2​={λ≥λthr​(β)} inside B×R+B \times \mathbb{R}_+B×R+​.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 2 (p. 10)

Under Assumptions 1 and 2, fδ:B×R+→R∪{∞}f_\delta : B \times \mathbb{R}_+ \to \mathbb{R} \cup \{\infty\}fδ​:B×R+​→R∪{∞} is proper and convex: fδ>−∞f_\delta > -\inftyfδ​>−∞ on B×R+B \times \mathbb{R}_+B×R+​; for each β∈B\beta \in Bβ∈B some λ≥0\lambda \ge 0λ≥0 has fδ(β,λ)<∞f_\delta(\beta, \lambda) < \inftyfδ​(β,λ)<∞; and for θ1,θ2∈B×R+\theta_1, \theta_2 \in B \times \mathbb{R}_+θ1​,θ2​∈B×R+​, α∈[0,1]\alpha \in [0, 1]α∈[0,1],

fδ(αθ1+(1−α)θ2)≤αfδ(θ1)+(1−α)fδ(θ2).f_\delta\big(\alpha\theta_1 + (1 - \alpha)\theta_2\big) \le \alpha f_\delta(\theta_1) + (1 - \alpha) f_\delta(\theta_2).fδ​(αθ1​+(1−α)θ2​)≤αfδ​(θ1​)+(1−α)fδ​(θ2​).

Milestones

  1. Lemma 3 (p. 32). For each ε>0\varepsilon > 0ε>0 there are C1,C2>0C_1, C_2 > 0C1​,C2​>0, not depending on xxx, β\betaβ, λ\lambdaλ, such that whenever λ≥(κ+ε)δ qβ(x)\lambda \ge (\kappa + \varepsilon)\sqrt{\delta}\,q_\beta(x)λ≥(κ+ε)δ​qβ​(x) we have δ∣g∣qβ(x)≤1+C1ε−1(1+∣βTx∣)\sqrt{\delta}|g|q_\beta(x) \le 1 + C_1\varepsilon^{-1}(1 + |\beta^{\mathsf T}x|)δ​∣g∣qβ​(x)≤1+C1​ε−1(1+∣βTx∣) for every g∈Γ∗(β,λ;x)g \in \Gamma^*(\beta, \lambda; x)g∈Γ∗(β,λ;x), and ℓrob(β,λ;x)≤λδ+C2(1+ε+ε−1)(1+∣βTx∣)2\ell_{rob}(\beta, \lambda; x) \le \lambda\sqrt{\delta} + C_2(1 + \varepsilon + \varepsilon^{-1})(1 + |\beta^{\mathsf T}x|)^2ℓrob​(β,λ;x)≤λδ​+C2​(1+ε+ε−1)(1+∣βTx∣)2.
  2. Display (25) (p. 32). sup⁡Δ∈Rd{ℓ(βT(x+Δ))−λδ(ΔTA(x)Δ−δ)}=ℓrob(β,λ;x)\sup_{\Delta \in \mathbb{R}^d}\{\ell(\beta^{\mathsf T}(x + \Delta)) - \tfrac{\lambda}{\sqrt\delta}(\Delta^{\mathsf T}A(x)\Delta - \delta)\} = \ell_{rob}(\beta, \lambda; x)supΔ∈Rd​{ℓ(βT(x+Δ))−δ​λ​(ΔTA(x)Δ−δ)}=ℓrob​(β,λ;x).
  3. Lemma 2 (p. 16). (β,λ)↦ℓrob(β,λ;x)(\beta, \lambda) \mapsto \ell_{rob}(\beta, \lambda; x)(β,λ)↦ℓrob​(β,λ;x) is convex on B×R+B \times \mathbb{R}_+B×R+​ for every xxx.
  4. Lemma 1 (p. 16). Γ∗≠∅\Gamma^* \neq \emptysetΓ∗=∅ and ℓrob\ell_{rob}ℓrob​ finite if λ>κδ qβ(x)\lambda > \kappa\sqrt{\delta}\,q_\beta(x)λ>κδ​qβ​(x); Γ∗=∅\Gamma^* = \emptysetΓ∗=∅ and ℓrob=∞\ell_{rob} = \inftyℓrob​=∞ if λ<κδ qβ(x)\lambda < \kappa\sqrt{\delta}\,q_\beta(x)λ<κδ​qβ​(x); consequently U1⊆U⊆U2\mathbb{U}_1 \subseteq \mathbb{U} \subseteq \mathbb{U}_2U1​⊆U⊆U2​.

Lemma 3 is stated with constants depending only on ε\varepsilonε (and the fixed data), as its proof produces them and as the paper's later arguments integrate bound (b) over xxx.

Significance

Theorem 2 is the structural fact behind the paper's algorithms: with Theorem 1 it turns a minimax problem over probability measures into a convex minimization in d+1d + 1d+1 real variables, on which the paper's strong convexity results (Theorems 3–5) and its stochastic gradient schemes are built. Lemma 1 identifies the effective domain up to its boundary, which tells an algorithm where the dual multiplier must lie, and Lemma 3 gives the growth control of the robust loss used throughout the appendix.

The results are proved in the paper; none of them has a machine-checked proof. The mission produces a Lean statement of the dual objective as an extended-real integral and of its convexity and properness, reusable by the other missions of this series (strong convexity near the optimizers, worst-case distributions, comparative statics in δ\deltaδ), and contributions of formal proofs of the milestones and the goal.

Difficulty

The objective takes the value +∞+\infty+∞ on part of its domain: Lemma 1(b) shows that ℓrob=+∞\ell_{rob} = +\inftyℓrob​=+∞ below the threshold, so the naive reading "fδf_\deltafδ​ is a real convex function" is false, and convexity must be handled for functions with values in R∪{∞}\mathbb{R} \cup \{\infty\}R∪{∞}, including the conventions 0⋅∞=00 \cdot \infty = 00⋅∞=0 at the endpoints of the segment. Properness requires a bound on ℓrob\ell_{rob}ℓrob​ that is integrable in xxx, so the constants of Lemma 3 must not depend on xxx; a bound that is only pointwise finite does not suffice. The identity (25) relates a supremum over Rd\mathbb{R}^dRd to a supremum over R\mathbb{R}R through a change of the dual variable, and the two multipliers must be kept apart. Finally, the expectation in fδf_\deltafδ​ is an integral of an extended-real function whose measurability is not assumed but has to be derived from Assumption 1.

Formalization scope

Rd\mathbb{R}^dRd is EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin d) and parameters (β,λ)(\beta, \lambda)(β,λ) live in EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin d) × ℝ. ℓrob\ell_{rob}ℓrob​ is an EReal supremum; fδf_\deltafδ​ is the published ModelRiskOT.Duality.extIntegral, ∫φ+ dP0−∫φ− dP0\int \varphi^+\,dP_0 - \int \varphi^-\,dP_0∫φ+dP0​−∫φ−dP0​ with lower Lebesgue integrals. κ\kappaκ is a real infimum and λthr\lambda_{thr}λthr​ uses the real essential supremum; both are used only under Assumptions 1–2, which make them meaningful. Convexity of extended-real maps is written as the explicit inequality in EReal, since ConvexOn does not apply.

Standing assumptions carried by every statement: P0P_0P0​ a probability measure, δ>0\delta > 0δ>0, BBB convex (the paper's standing assumption). Conventions committed to: "for any xxx" in Lemmas 1–2 is every xxx, not almost every; Lemma 2 assumes only Assumption 1a and the convexity of ℓ\ellℓ; the identity (25) is stated with the old multiplier written as λ/δ\lambda/\sqrt{\delta}λ/δ​; the typo "βA(x)−1β\beta A(x)^{-1}\betaβA(x)−1β" in Lemma 1 is read as βTA(x)−1β\beta^{\mathsf T}A(x)^{-1}\betaβTA(x)−1β; the goal's "finite somewhere" is stated for each β∈B\beta \in Bβ∈B, so the goal is vacuous only when B=∅B = \emptysetB=∅. The fourth-moment condition of Assumption 2 is kept as printed.

A trivializing formalization is ruled out: "proper" is not encoded as "finite everywhere" (false by Lemma 1(b)), and pointwise convexity of ℓrob\ell_{rob}ℓrob​ (Lemma 2) is a milestone, not the goal, which is about the expectation fδf_\deltafδ​.

A complete development needs: positive definite matrices and the quadratic minimization behind (25); continuity of convex functions and growth bounds; lower Lebesgue integrals of extended-real functions and their monotonicity and additivity; measurability of a supremum over γ\gammaγ of continuous functions. The definitions layer is shared with the other four missions of this series. Proofs of any milestone and of the goal are welcome.

Selected references

  • J. Blanchet, K. Murthy, F. Zhang, Optimal Transport-Based Distributionally Robust Optimization: Structural Properties and Iterative Schemes, Mathematics of Operations Research 47(2), 2022. arXiv:1810.02403v3, doi:10.1287/moor.2021.1178
  • J. Blanchet, K. Murthy, Quantifying Distributional Model Risk via Optimal Transport, Mathematics of Operations Research 44(2), 2019. arXiv:1604.01446, doi:10.1287/moor.2018.0936
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OptimizationProbabilityStatistics·Captain: mikedeng1

From Data to Decisions: Distributionally Robust Optimization Is Optimal 1: The Relative-Entropy Robust Predictor Is the Least Conservative Predictor Whose Disappointment Decays at Rate rResearch Paper

Motivation

A decision maker who must choose xxx before observing an uncertain outcome ξ\xiξ usually does not know the distribution of ξ\xiξ; only past observations ξ1,…,ξT\xi_1,\dots,\xi_Tξ1​,…,ξT​ are available. Data-driven optimization replaces the unknown expected cost by an estimate computed from the data. The simplest estimate, the sample average, is optimistically biased: the cost realized out of sample is, with probability close to one half, higher than predicted. Many corrections have been proposed: robust optimization over moment, ϕ\phiϕ-divergence or Wasserstein ambiguity sets (Delage & Ye 2010; Ben-Tal et al. 2013; Bertsimas, Gupta & Kallus 2018), and empirical-likelihood methods (Lam 2019; Duchi, Glynn & Namkoong 2021). Each is justified by a guarantee it satisfies. Van Parys, Mohajerin Esfahani and Kuhn (arXiv:1704.04118; Management Science 67(6), 2021) ask a different question: among all estimates that satisfy a given guarantee, which one is the least conservative? Their answer singles out one distributionally robust predictor, built on the relative entropy, as the best possible one in a precise sense. This mission formalizes that answer for the prediction problem with finitely many outcomes.

Setting

The outcome ξ\xiξ takes values in Ξ={1,…,d}\Xi=\{1,\dots,d\}Ξ={1,…,d}. Decisions range over a compact set X⊆RnX\subseteq\mathbb R^nX⊆Rn, and the cost γ(x,i)\gamma(x,i)γ(x,i) is continuous in xxx for each iii. These are the standing assumptions of §2 (p. 5).

A model is a point P\mathbb PP of the probability simplex P={P∈R+d:∑iP(i)=1}\mathcal P=\{\mathbb P\in\mathbb R^d_+:\sum_i\mathbb P(i)=1\}P={P∈R+d​:∑i​P(i)=1}, with the topology inherited from Rd\mathbb R^dRd. Under a model the expected cost is c(x,P)=∑iP(i)γ(x,i)c(x,\mathbb P)=\sum_i\mathbb P(i)\gamma(x,i)c(x,P)=∑i​P(i)γ(x,i).

The data are TTT independent draws from an unknown model. They enter only through the empirical distribution P^T(i)=1T#{t≤T:ξt=i}\hat{\mathbb P}_T(i)=\frac1T\#\{t\le T:\xi_t=i\}P^T​(i)=T1​#{t≤T:ξt​=i}. Write P∞(⋅)\mathbb P^\infty(\cdot)P∞(⋅) for probabilities when the samples are drawn from P\mathbb PP.

A data-driven predictor is a continuous function c^:X×P→R\hat c:X\times\mathcal P\to\mathbb Rc^:X×P→R; the number c^(x,P^T)\hat c(x,\hat{\mathbb P}_T)c^(x,P^T​) estimates c(x,P)c(x,\mathbb P)c(x,P). The set of all of them is C\mathcal CC. Its out-of-sample disappointment is the probability P∞(c(x,P)>c^(x,P^T))\mathbb P^\infty\big(c(x,\mathbb P)>\hat c(x,\hat{\mathbb P}_T)\big)P∞(c(x,P)>c^(x,P^T​)) that the true cost exceeds the prediction.

The relative entropy of P′\mathbb P'P′ with respect to P\mathbb PP is

I(P′,P)=∑iP′(i)log⁡P′(i)P(i)∈[0,∞],I(\mathbb P',\mathbb P)=\sum_{i}\mathbb P'(i)\log\frac{\mathbb P'(i)}{\mathbb P(i)}\in[0,\infty],I(P′,P)=i∑​P′(i)logP(i)P′(i)​∈[0,∞],

with 0log⁡(0/p)=00\log(0/p)=00log(0/p)=0 and p′log⁡(p′/0)=+∞p'\log(p'/0)=+\inftyp′log(p′/0)=+∞ for p′>0p'>0p′>0.

For a threshold r≥0r\ge0r≥0, the distributionally robust predictor is

c^r(x,P′)=sup⁡P∈P{c(x,P):I(P′,P)≤r}.(10)\hat c_r(x,\mathbb P')=\sup_{\mathbb P\in\mathcal P}\{c(x,\mathbb P):I(\mathbb P',\mathbb P)\le r\}.\tag{10}c^r​(x,P′)=P∈Psup​{c(x,P):I(P′,P)≤r}.(10)

It is the worst expected cost over all models under which the observed frequencies P′\mathbb P'P′ are not exponentially unlikely at rate more than rrr. The observed frequencies are the first argument of III.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 4 (strong optimality)

The paper's meta-optimization problem (5) is

min⁡c^∈C⪯C c^s.t.lim sup⁡T→∞1Tlog⁡P∞(c(x,P)>c^(x,P^T))≤−r∀x∈X, P∈P,\min_{\hat c\in\mathcal C}{}^{\preceq_{\mathcal C}}\ \hat c\quad\text{s.t.}\quad\limsup_{T\to\infty}\frac1T\log\mathbb P^\infty\big(c(x,\mathbb P)>\hat c(x,\hat{\mathbb P}_T)\big)\le-r\quad\forall x\in X,\ \mathbb P\in\mathcal P,c^∈Cmin​⪯C​ c^s.t.T→∞limsup​T1​logP∞(c(x,P)>c^(x,P^T​))≤−r∀x∈X, P∈P,

where c^1⪯Cc^2\hat c_1\preceq_{\mathcal C}\hat c_2c^1​⪯C​c^2​ means c^1≤c^2\hat c_1\le\hat c_2c^1​≤c^2​ pointwise on X×PX\times\mathcal PX×P. A feasible c^⋆\hat c^\starc^⋆ is strongly optimal if c^⋆⪯Cc^\hat c^\star\preceq_{\mathcal C}\hat cc^⋆⪯C​c^ for every feasible c^\hat cc^. The goal is:

If r>0, then c^r is strongly optimal in (5).\text{If } r>0,\ \text{then } \hat c_r \text{ is strongly optimal in (5).}If r>0, then c^r​ is strongly optimal in (5).

This statement contains feasibility (continuity and the decay rate) and pointwise domination of every feasible competitor.

Milestones

  1. Proposition 1(ii) and (iii): III is jointly convex and lower semicontinuous on P×P\mathcal P\times\mathcal PP×P.
  2. The supremum in (10) is attained.
  3. Theorem 2: the strong LDP P∞(P^T∈D)≤(T+1)de−Tinf⁡DI(⋅,P)\mathbb P^\infty(\hat{\mathbb P}_T\in\mathcal D)\le(T+1)^de^{-T\inf_{\mathcal D}I(\cdot,\mathbb P)}P∞(P^T​∈D)≤(T+1)de−TinfD​I(⋅,P).
  4. Theorem 1: the weak LDP, upper bound (7a) and, for P>0\mathbb P>0P>0, lower bound (7b) with the interior of D\mathcal DD.
  5. Proposition 2: the dual representation c^r(x,P′)=min⁡α≥γˉ(x)α−e−r∏i(α−γ(x,i))P′(i)\hat c_r(x,\mathbb P')=\min_{\alpha\ge\bar\gamma(x)}\alpha-e^{-r}\prod_i(\alpha-\gamma(x,i))^{\mathbb P'(i)}c^r​(x,P′)=minα≥γˉ​(x)​α−e−r∏i​(α−γ(x,i))P′(i), with a minimizer in an explicit interval.
  6. Proposition 3 and Theorem 3: c^r\hat c_rc^r​ is continuous, and is feasible in (5) for every r≥0r\ge0r≥0.
  7. Display (15): a maximizer in the closed relative entropy ball can be approximated in cost by a strictly positive model in the open ball.

Two further statements are included without milestones: Proposition 1(i), the information inequality, and Theorem 5, the finite-sample bound (T+1)de−rT(T+1)^de^{-rT}(T+1)de−rT on the disappointment of c^r\hat c_rc^r​.

Significance

The theorem turns a choice among robust estimators into a uniqueness statement. If a decision maker asks only for a disappointment probability that decays exponentially at rate rrr under every possible model, then c^r\hat c_rc^r​ is the unique least conservative continuous predictor. Any predictor that is smaller anywhere fails the guarantee for some model. The reverse predictor (12) and the restricted predictor (13), which fix the other argument of III or hedge only against models absolutely continuous with respect to the observed frequencies and are common in the literature, differ from c^r\hat c_rc^r​ (Remark 3, pp. 15–16), so the theorem does not single them out. The companion missions of this series extend the result to predictor–prescriptor pairs (mission 2) and to compact continuous outcome spaces (mission 3).

The result is proved in the paper; nothing here is open. To our knowledge none of it has been machine-checked. A formal development would also give Mathlib-level statements of the method of types: Sanov's theorem for finite alphabets in both its finite-sample and asymptotic forms, together with the convexity and semicontinuity of the relative entropy with the +∞+\infty+∞ convention. These are reusable far beyond this paper.

Difficulty

Feasibility (Theorem 3) is a direct consequence of the LDP upper bound, once the disappointment set is seen to lie outside the relative entropy ball. The difficulty is the optimality half. Showing that a competitor c^\hat cc^ with c^(x,P0′)<c^r(x,P0′)\hat c(x,\mathbb P_0')<\hat c_r(x,\mathbb P_0')c^(x,P0′​)<c^r​(x,P0′​) at a single point must be infeasible requires a lower bound on a disappointment probability. The obvious approach evaluates the LDP lower bound at a maximizer P0\mathbb P_0P0​ of (10). That fails: the lower bound (7b) needs a strictly positive model, the maximizer usually lies on the boundary of the simplex and on the boundary of the ball I(P0′,⋅)≤rI(\mathbb P_0',\cdot)\le rI(P0′​,⋅)≤r, and the bound is only in terms of the interior of the disappointment set. The argument has to move to a nearby model, and this uses the continuity of c^\hat cc^, the convexity of III, and the +∞+\infty+∞ convention of III in its second argument. The asymptotic statements also require care with the logarithm of a vanishing probability.

Formalization scope

  • Outcomes and models. Ξ\XiΞ is Fin d. P\mathcal PP is the subtype of stdSimplex ℝ (Fin d), so interiors and continuity are relative to P\mathcal PP, as footnote 1 (p. 12) requires.
  • Decisions and cost. XXX is a compact subset of EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin n), and γ:X→Rd\gamma : X\to\mathbb R^dγ:X→Rd is continuous in xxx for each outcome.
  • Relative entropy. III is EReal-valued and is +∞+\infty+∞ whenever P(i)=0<P′(i)\mathbb P(i)=0<\mathbb P'(i)P(i)=0<P′(i). A real-valued sum would give a finite value there under Lean's log 0 = 0, and so change c^r\hat c_rc^r​.
  • Probabilities. Sampling probabilities are finite sums over sample paths ΞT\Xi^TΞT. The empirical distribution is defined for T≥1T\ge1T≥1; finite-sample statements assume T≥1T\ge1T≥1.
  • Decay rates. Rates are stated without logarithms: lim sup⁡1Tlog⁡pT≤−r\limsup\frac1T\log p_T\le-rlimsupT1​logpT​≤−r is written "for every r′<rr'<rr′<r, eventually pT≤e−r′Tp_T\le e^{-r'T}pT​≤e−r′T". The form through Real.log would give a never-disappointed predictor rate 000, which makes Theorem 3 false.
  • Infima. Infima of III are taken in the extended reals.
  • Competitors. They range over all jointly continuous functions on X×PX\times\mathcal PX×P. Dropping continuity makes Theorem 4 false.
  • Sets D\mathcal DD. The LDP statements require Borel D⊆P\mathcal D\subseteq\mathcal PD⊆P, represented by MeasurableSet D in the simplex subtype.
  • Display (15). The clause 0<r20<r_20<r2​ is dropped: it is unused, and it fails for d=1d=1d=1.

Welcome contributions: the method of types on Fin d (type classes, their cardinality bounds and probabilities); joint convexity and lower semicontinuity of the finite relative entropy with the +∞+\infty+∞ convention; and Berge's maximum theorem in the form used for Proposition 3. These are reusable beyond this mission. The definitions duplicate those of mission 2 of this series and are meant to be merged once published.

The source is the arXiv preprint arXiv:1704.04118v3 (22 Dec 2019); all theorem, display and page numbers refer to it.

Selected references

  • B. P. G. Van Parys, P. Mohajerin Esfahani, D. Kuhn, From Data to Decisions: Distributionally Robust Optimization is Optimal, Management Science 67(6), 2021. Preprint arXiv:1704.04118v3. https://arxiv.org/abs/1704.04118v3 — https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2020.3678
  • T. M. Cover, J. A. Thomas, Elements of Information Theory, 2nd ed., Wiley, 2006 (Theorems 2.6.3, 2.7.2, 11.4.1). https://doi.org/10.1002/047174882X
  • A. Dembo, O. Zeitouni, Large Deviations Techniques and Applications, 2nd ed., Springer, 1998. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4612-5320-4
  • A. Ben-Tal, D. den Hertog, A. De Waegenaere, B. Melenberg, G. Rennen, Robust Solutions of Optimization Problems Affected by Uncertain Probabilities, Management Science 59(2), 2013. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.1120.1641
  • E. Delage, Y. Ye, Distributionally Robust Optimization Under Moment Uncertainty with Application to Data-Driven Problems, Operations Research 58(3), 2010. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.1090.0741
  • C. Berge, Topological Spaces, Oliver & Boyd, 1963 (pp. 115–116, maximum theorem).
13 thms1 active userReviewed
Linear OptimizationOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Constrained Assortment Optimization for the Nested Logit Model 7: Under Space Constraints, for Every α > 1, O(⌈α/(α−1)⌉ n^(⌈α/(α−1)⌉+2)) Candidate Assortments Include an α-Approximate SolutionResearch Paper

Motivation

A retailer that sells products in categories must decide which products to offer in each category. When customers choose among the offered products according to the nested logit model, the expected revenue depends on the offered assortment in a nonlinear way, and the retailer's shelf space adds a knapsack constraint in every category. Gallego and Topaloglu (Management Science, 2014) show that the resulting space-constrained assortment problem is NP-hard even with a single nest (via Lemma 2.1 of Rusmevichientong, Shen and Shmoys, cited in the paper as 2009), give a factor-2 approximation through a linear program, and then, in Online Supplement C of the paper, refine the approach into an approximation scheme: for every desired guarantee α>1\alpha>1α>1, a polynomially sized family of candidate assortments per nest suffices.

The scheme follows the partial-enumeration idea of Frieze and Clarke (1984) for multi-dimensional knapsack problems, but has to work for a whole one-parameter family of knapsack problems, one for every value of a scalar u≥0u\ge0u≥0, with a single collection of candidates fixed in advance.

Setting

There are nests i∈Mi\in Mi∈M and products j∈N={1,…,n}j\in N=\{1,\dots,n\}j∈N={1,…,n}. Product jjj of nest iii has a preference weight vij>0v_{ij}>0vij​>0, a revenue rij∈Rr_{ij}\in\mathbb Rrij​∈R (no sign or order is assumed), and a space requirement wij>0w_{ij}>0wij​>0; nest iii has capacity cic_ici​ with wij≤ciw_{ij}\le c_iwij​≤ci​. An assortment of nest iii is a set S⊆NS\subseteq NS⊆N; it is feasible, S∈CiS\in\mathcal C_iS∈Ci​, when ∑j∈Swij≤ci\sum_{j\in S}w_{ij}\le c_i∑j∈S​wij​≤ci​. Write

Vi(S)=∑j∈Svij,Ri(S)=∑j∈SrijvijVi(S)(Ri(∅)=0).V_i(S)=\sum_{j\in S}v_{ij},\qquad R_i(S)=\frac{\sum_{j\in S}r_{ij}v_{ij}}{V_i(S)}\quad(R_i(\emptyset)=0).Vi​(S)=j∈S∑​vij​,Ri​(S)=Vi​(S)∑j∈S​rij​vij​​(Ri​(∅)=0).

For u≥0u\ge0u≥0, problem (7) is max⁡S∈CiVi(S)(Ri(S)−u)\max_{S\in\mathcal C_i}V_i(S)(R_i(S)-u)maxS∈Ci​​Vi​(S)(Ri​(S)−u), which equals the knapsack problem (10) max⁡S∈Ci∑j∈Svij(rij−u)\max_{S\in\mathcal C_i}\sum_{j\in S}v_{ij}(r_{ij}-u)maxS∈Ci​​∑j∈S​vij​(rij​−u). The quantity vij(rij−u)v_{ij}(r_{ij}-u)vij​(rij​−u) is the utility of product jjj; z∗(u)z^\ast(u)z∗(u) denotes the optimal value of (10). An assortment S^∈Ci\hat S\in\mathcal C_iS^∈Ci​ is α\alphaα-approximate at uuu when Vi(S)(Ri(S)−u)≤αVi(S^)(Ri(S^)−u)V_i(S)(R_i(S)-u)\le\alpha V_i(\hat S)(R_i(\hat S)-u)Vi​(S)(Ri​(S)−u)≤αVi​(S^)(Ri​(S^)−u) for all S∈CiS\in\mathcal C_iS∈Ci​.

For a set J⊆NJ\subseteq NJ⊆N, problem (17) is the linear program

max⁡{∑jvij(rij−u)xij:∑jwijxij≤ci, xij=1 (j∈J), 0≤xik≤1(vik(rik−u)≤min⁡j∈Jvij(rij−u)) (k∉J)},\max\Big\{\sum_{j}v_{ij}(r_{ij}-u)x_{ij} : \sum_j w_{ij}x_{ij}\le c_i,\ x_{ij}=1\ (j\in J),\ 0\le x_{ik}\le\mathbf 1\big(v_{ik}(r_{ik}-u)\le\min_{j\in J}v_{ij}(r_{ij}-u)\big)\ (k\notin J)\Big\},max{j∑​vij​(rij​−u)xij​:j∑​wij​xij​≤ci​, xij​=1 (j∈J), 0≤xik​≤1(vik​(rik​−u)≤j∈Jmin​vij​(rij​−u)) (k∈/J)},

the LP relaxation of (10) with the products of JJJ fixed in the knapsack and every product whose utility exceeds the smallest utility in JJJ removed. Its optimal value is ζ∗(u,J)\zeta^\ast(u,J)ζ∗(u,J). Rounding a solution xxx down gives the assortment ⌊x⌋={j:xij=1}\lfloor x\rfloor=\{j:x_{ij}=1\}⌊x⌋={j:xij​=1}. ℘q\wp_q℘q​ is the family of subsets of NNN with at most qqq elements.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 9 (p. 40)

For every α>1\alpha>1α>1, with q=⌈α/(α−1)⌉q=\lceil\alpha/(\alpha-1)\rceilq=⌈α/(α−1)⌉, there is a collection {Ait:t∈Ti}⊆Ci\{A_i^t:t\in\mathcal T_i\}\subseteq\mathcal C_i{Ait​:t∈Ti​}⊆Ci​ such that

∣Ti∣≤5(q+1) nq+2+1and∀u≥0 ∃t: Ait is α-approximate for (7) at u.|\mathcal T_i|\le 5(q+1)\,n^{q+2}+1\quad\text{and}\quad\forall u\ge0\ \exists t:\ A_i^t\text{ is }\alpha\text{-approximate for (7) at }u .∣Ti​∣≤5(q+1)nq+2+1and∀u≥0 ∃t: Ait​ is α-approximate for (7) at u.

The paper writes ∣Ti∣=O(⌈α/(α−1)⌉n⌈α/(α−1)⌉+2)|\mathcal T_i|=O(\lceil\alpha/(\alpha-1)\rceil n^{\lceil\alpha/(\alpha-1)\rceil+2})∣Ti​∣=O(⌈α/(α−1)⌉n⌈α/(α−1)⌉+2); the explicit bound above is of that order.

Milestones

  1. Whenever (17) is feasible, it has an optimal solution with at most one fractional component (p. 39).
  2. If an optimal Si∗S^\ast_iSi∗​ of (10) at u^\hat uu^ has ∣Si∗∣≤q|S^\ast_i|\le q∣Si∗​∣≤q, then rounding down an optimal solution of (17) with J=Si∗J=S^\ast_iJ=Si∗​ solves (10) at u^\hat uu^ (p. 41).
  3. If ∣Si∗∣>q|S^\ast_i|>q∣Si∗​∣>q and Ji∗J^\ast_iJi∗​ holds qqq products of Si∗S^\ast_iSi∗​ of largest utility, a fractional component j′j'j′ of an optimal solution of (17) at (u^,Ji∗)(\hat u,J^\ast_i)(u^,Ji∗​) satisfies vij′(rij′−u^)≤z∗(u^)/qv_{ij'}(r_{ij'}-\hat u)\le z^\ast(\hat u)/qvij′​(rij′​−u^)≤z∗(u^)/q (pp. 41–42).
  4. In the same situation Si∗S^\ast_iSi∗​ is feasible for (17), so z∗(u^)≤ζ∗(u^,Ji∗)z^\ast(\hat u)\le\zeta^\ast(\hat u,J^\ast_i)z∗(u^)≤ζ∗(u^,Ji∗​) (p. 42).
  5. Lemma 8 (p. 40), per uuu: for q≥2q\ge2q≥2 and every u≥0u\ge0u≥0 some J∈℘qJ\in\wp_qJ∈℘q​ makes every optimal solution of (17) with at most one fractional component round down to a q/(q−1)q/(q-1)q/(q−1)-approximate solution of (10).

Significance

Together with Theorem 4 of the paper (an α\alphaα-approximate candidate per nest for every uuu yields an α\alphaα-approximate assortment for the whole problem) and Theorem 2 (the best combination of candidates solves a linear program with 1+m1+m1+m variables), Theorem 9 gives, for every α>1\alpha>1α>1, an α\alphaα-approximation of the space-constrained nested logit assortment problem by a single linear program with O(m⌈α/(α−1)⌉n⌈α/(α−1)⌉+2)O(m\lceil\alpha/(\alpha-1)\rceil n^{\lceil\alpha/(\alpha-1)\rceil+2})O(m⌈α/(α−1)⌉n⌈α/(α−1)⌉+2) constraints; for α=3/2\alpha=3/2α=3/2 this is O(mn5)O(mn^5)O(mn5). It shows that the factor 2 of Section 5 is not a barrier of the method.

The result is proved in the paper. As far as the platform's records show, none of it is formalized; this mission produces a machine-checked proof of Lemma 8 and Theorem 9, including the explicit counting of parameter intervals that the paper only sketches.

A related but different construction, with large and small products and a continuous knapsack whose weights are preference weights, appears in the unconstrained variants of Davis, Gallego and Topaloglu (items NestedLogitVariants.PowersDelta.*); it is not reused here.

Difficulty

Two points resist the obvious argument. First, rounding down the plain LP relaxation of (10) drops one fractional product whose utility can be as large as the whole optimum, which is why Section 5 only reaches a factor 2; no choice of rounding of that relaxation alone does better. The guarantee has to come from the partially fixed problems (17), and their indicator constraint is delicate: it excludes only products of strictly larger utility than the least utility in JJJ, and a version that also excludes ties can cut off the optimal assortment of (10), and the comparison with z∗(u)z^\ast(u)z∗(u) is then lost.

Second, the collection must be fixed before uuu. The optimal solution of (17) depends on uuu through the ordering of the utilities, the ordering of the utility-to-space ratios and the signs of the utilities, which change only at the intersection points of 2(n+1)2(n+1)2(n+1) lines. Because the feasible set of (17) itself depends on uuu through the indicator constraint, the solution on an open interval between two such points need not remain optimal at its endpoints; the count must treat the breakpoints as pieces of their own.

Formalization scope

  • Nests are a finite type ι; products are Fin n (0-based); assortments are Finset (Fin n), with ∅\emptyset∅ for 0ˉ\bar 00ˉ.
  • The published model NestedLogitVariants.LP.Model is referenced; its within-nest no-purchase weight is set to zero (I.vnp i = 0), which makes V and R the paper's ViV_iVi​ and RiR_iRi​. The paper's extension Vi(Si)=vi01(Si≠0ˉ)+…V_i(S_i)=v_{i0}\mathbf 1(S_i\ne\bar 0)+\dotsVi​(Si​)=vi0​1(Si​=0ˉ)+… is not formalized.
  • Added hypotheses, all flagged in the items: vij>0v_{ij}>0vij​>0, wij>0w_{ij}>0wij​>0, ci≥0c_i\ge0ci​≥0 (the empty assortment is feasible even when n=0n=0n=0), q≥2q\ge2q≥2 in Lemma 8 and q≥1q\ge1q≥1 in milestone 3. The paper's wij≤ciw_{ij}\le c_iwij​≤ci​ is kept in the goal.
  • The paper's O(⋅)O(\cdot)O(⋅) is pinned to 5(q+1)nq+2+15(q+1)n^{q+2}+15(q+1)nq+2+1, with a constant that does not depend on α\alphaα, as the paper's explicit factor ⌈α/(α−1)⌉\lceil\alpha/(\alpha-1)\rceil⌈α/(α−1)⌉ indicates: for n≥1n\ge1n≥1, at most (q+1)nq(q+1)n^q(q+1)nq sets in ℘q\wp_q℘q​ times at most 2n(n+1)+1≤5n22n(n+1)+1\le5n^22n(n+1)+1≤5n2 pieces of [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞); the +1+1+1 covers n=0n=0n=0.
  • q=⌈α/(α−1)⌉q=\lceil\alpha/(\alpha-1)\rceilq=⌈α/(α−1)⌉ is Nat.ceil; α>1\alpha>1α>1 is strict.
  • The collection is quantified before uuu; problem (17) is a real LP over [0,1]n[0,1]^n[0,1]n; its indicator constraint excludes only products of strictly larger utility.
  • Lemma 8 is stated per uuu: the interval solutions xig(J)x_i^g(J)xig​(J) are not defined, and their counting belongs to Theorem 9.
  • Trivializing formalizations are ruled out: the size bound is part of the goal (without it A=CiA=\mathcal C_iA=Ci​ works, and a bound like 2n2^n2n would do the same); α\alphaα is arbitrary in (1,∞)(1,\infty)(1,∞), not fixed; and (17) carries its indicator constraint, without which the q/(q−1)q/(q-1)q/(q−1) argument fails.
  • Welcome contributions: a reusable greedy theorem for the fractional knapsack LP (one fractional component), and a general lemma counting the pieces on which a finite family of affine functions has constant order and signs.

Selected references

  • G. Gallego and H. Topaloglu, Constrained Assortment Optimization for the Nested Logit Model, Management Science 60(10), 2014. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2014.1931 (cited from the authors' manuscript of Sept. 11, 2013).
  • A. M. Frieze and M. R. B. Clarke, Approximation algorithms for the m-dimensional 0–1 knapsack problem: worst-case and probabilistic analyses, European Journal of Operational Research 15(1), 1984. https://doi.org/10.1016/0377-2217(84)90053-5
  • P. Rusmevichientong, Z.-J. M. Shen and D. B. Shmoys, Dynamic assortment optimization with a multinomial logit choice model and capacity constraint, Operations Research 58(6), 2010. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.1100.0866
  • J. M. Davis, G. Gallego and H. Topaloglu, Assortment Optimization Under Variants of the Nested Logit Model, Operations Research 62(2), 2014. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.2014.1256
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Complexity TheoryOptimizationProbability+1·Captain: mikedeng1

A Comment on "Computational Complexity of Stochastic Programming Problems" 1: δ-Accurate Expected Recourse Values of Problem (2) Determine the #Parity Count of a Knapsack PolytopeResearch Paper

Motivation

A two-stage stochastic program chooses a decision before uncertainty is observed and a recourse decision afterward. Its objective can involve the expected optimal value of the recourse problem. Even with linear constraints, evaluating that expectation can be difficult when the random input has many coordinates. Dyer and Stougie's 2006 complexity paper studied this question for stochastic programming. Hanasusanto, Kuhn and Wiesemann identified a false volume identity in one fixed-recourse argument, then supplied a quantitative replacement in their 2015 preprint. The replacement shows that sufficiently accurate expected-recourse values determine an exact counting answer.

The distinction matters to researchers designing numerical methods for stochastic programs. A hardness statement at a specified absolute accuracy identifies the scale at which a general exact-information guarantee would have strong complexity consequences. It does not say that useful approximations at coarser accuracy are unavailable. The present mission records the mathematical reduction behind the paper's Theorem 1 and its quantitative tolerance.

Setting

Let k≥1k\ge1k≥1. A realization ξ=(ξ1,…,ξk)\xi=(\xi_1,\ldots,\xi_k)ξ=(ξ1​,…,ξk​) lies in the unit cube C=[0,1]kC=[0,1]^kC=[0,1]k, equipped with Lebesgue measure. This cube has volume one, so integration over it is expectation under the uniform law. Let α∈R+k\alpha\in\mathbb R^k_+α∈R+k​ be nonnegative weights and β≥0\beta\ge0β≥0 a budget. The second-stage value Q(ξ;α,β)Q(\xi;\alpha,\beta)Q(ξ;α,β) is the maximum of

∑j=1kξjyj−βz\sum_{j=1}^k\xi_jy_j-\beta zj=1∑k​ξj​yj​−βz

over 0≤z≤10\le z\le10≤z≤1 and 0≤yj≤αjz0\le y_j\le\alpha_jz0≤yj​≤αj​z for each jjj. Its expected recourse value is Q(α,β)=∫CQ(ξ;α,β) dξ\mathcal Q(\alpha,\beta)=\int_C Q(\xi;\alpha,\beta)\,d\xiQ(α,β)=∫C​Q(ξ;α,β)dξ. There is no first-stage decision in this instance of the model.

The knapsack polytope is P(α,β)={ξ∈C:∑jαjξj≤β}P(\alpha,\beta)=\{\xi\in C:\sum_j\alpha_j\xi_j\le\beta\}P(α,β)={ξ∈C:∑j​αj​ξj​≤β}, and V(α,β)V(\alpha,\beta)V(α,β) denotes its volume. For integer weights and budget, its binary points correspond to subsets S⊆{1,…,k}S\subseteq\{1,\ldots,k\}S⊆{1,…,k} with ∑j∈Sαj≤β\sum_{j\in S}\alpha_j\le\beta∑j∈S​αj​≤β. The #Parity count DDD is the number of such subsets of even size minus the number of odd size. The paper invokes the counting complexity of this problem from Dyer and Frieze's 1988 volume paper.

For i=0,…,ki=0,\ldots,ki=0,…,k, define γi=β+i/(k+1)\gamma_i=\beta+i/(k+1)γi​=β+i/(k+1) and a square matrix FFF by Fic=γik−cF_{ic}=\gamma_i^{k-c}Fic​=γik−c​ for c=0,…,kc=0,\ldots,kc=0,…,k. The first column has power kkk and the last has power zero. This order matters: the first coordinate of the coefficient vector is the parity count. The matrix inverse is controlled by a column-sum bound of the kind studied by Gautschi in 1962.

Formalization targets

Goal: recourse values determine the count

Write ε3(α)=1/[2k!(∥α∥1+2)k(k+1)k+1∏jαj]\varepsilon_3(\alpha)=1/[2k!(\|\alpha\|_1+2)^k(k+1)^{k+1}\prod_j\alpha_j]ε3​(α)=1/[2k!(∥α∥1​+2)k(k+1)k+1∏j​αj​] and δ7(α)=[αkε3(α)/(1+αk)]2\delta_7(\alpha)=[\alpha_k\varepsilon_3(\alpha)/(1+\alpha_k)]^2δ7​(α)=[αk​ε3​(α)/(1+αk​)]2, exactly the right sides of (3) and (7). For positive integer weights, β≤∑jαj\beta\le\sum_j\alpha_jβ≤∑j​αj​, and 0<δ<δ7(α)0<\delta<\delta_7(\alpha)0<δ<δ7​(α), take any oracle Qδ(t)Q_\delta(t)Qδ​(t) with ∣Qδ(t)−Q(α,t)∣≤δ|Q_\delta(t)-\mathcal Q(\alpha,t)|\le\delta∣Qδ​(t)−Q(α,t)∣≤δ at every nonnegative ttt. Set h=2δh=2\sqrt\deltah=2δ​ and

g~i=Qδ(γi+h)−Qδ(γi)h+1.\widetilde g_i=\frac{Q_\delta(\gamma_i+h)-Q_\delta(\gamma_i)}{h}+1.g​i​=hQδ​(γi​+h)−Qδ​(γi​)​+1.

The target is that every solution of

Fx~=(k!∏j=1kαj)g~F\widetilde x=\left(k!\prod_{j=1}^k\alpha_j\right)\widetilde gFx=(k!j=1∏k​αj​)g​

satisfies ∣x~0−D∣<1/2|\widetilde x_0-D|<1/2∣x0​−D∣<1/2. Nearest-integer rounding therefore recovers DDD.

Supporting targets

The milestones establish the value formula for the second-stage program, the inclusion–exclusion volume formula (8), the integer coefficient identity for the exact volume system, the inverse bound (4), the perturbation bound (6), the derivative identity in Lemma 2, a global volume-growth bound, and the finite-difference estimate in Theorem 1. Together they retain the paper's constants and its sequence from expected values to volume approximations to an exact count. Proposition 1 separately records why the earlier proposed identity 1−Q=V1-\mathcal Q=V1−Q=V fails.

Significance

The result certifies a concrete information transfer. A function returning expected-recourse values to the stated absolute tolerance also contains enough information to distinguish the exact even-minus-odd count of feasible binary points. The bound states how accurate those values must be as dimension and weights change; a qualitative assertion of hardness alone would hide that dependence. The paper concludes #P-hardness after accounting for the polynomial-time operations of the reduction. That complexity-class conclusion is part of the paper, while the Lean goal isolates the reduction's numerical correctness.

A complete formalization would give separately reusable results about cube integrals, knapsack volumes, perturbations of Vandermonde systems, and finite differences of expected hinge functions. The source paper proves the mathematical assertions; this proposal stages their Lean statements as open proof obligations. No machine-checked proof is claimed here. The companion counterexample also keeps the corrected argument anchored to the precise error it repairs.

Difficulty

The tempting identity 1−Q(α,β)=V(α,β)1-\mathcal Q(\alpha,\beta)=V(\alpha,\beta)1−Q(α,β)=V(α,β) fails: the expectation of the second-stage optimum is a positive-part expectation, while volume is a distribution function. The paper's Proposition 1 makes the discrepancy explicit for all-ones weights. Recovering volume requires differentiation with respect to the budget, and an approximate function value does not directly provide an accurate derivative. The difficulty is controlling both oracle error and the change of volume over a finite budget interval tightly enough that the final coefficient error is strictly below one half.

There are further exactness points. The column order of FFF fixes which coefficient equals DDD. The 111-norm in (4) is the maximum column sum of the inverse, not a generic matrix norm. The perturbation threshold contains k!k!k!, every weight, and the power (k+1)k+1(k+1)^{k+1}(k+1)k+1; losing one factor can invalidate the rounding guarantee.

Formalization scope

Lean uses vectors Fin(k)→R\mathrm{Fin}(k)\to\mathbb RFin(k)→R, with zero-based indices; the paper's αk\alpha_kαk​ is the final coordinate. Lebesgue measure is restricted to CCC, whose volume is one. The LP value is a real supremum of its feasible objective values. For the nonnegative weights used in the theorems, the feasible set is nonempty and bounded, so this represents the actual maximum. The expected value is a real integral over the cube. The matrix FFF has descending powers, and its 111-norm estimate is written as a bound on each inverse column sum. Binary vectors are represented by subsets; DDD keeps the paper's even-minus-odd convention.

Positive weights are required where (3) and (7) divide by their product, and δ>0\delta>0δ>0 where hhh divides a finite difference. The case β>∑jαj\beta>\sum_j\alpha_jβ>∑j​αj​ is excluded from the main target because the paper first answers it directly with D=0D=0D=0. Lemma 2 excludes α=0,β=0\alpha=0,\beta=0α=0,β=0, where the claimed derivative fails to exist. The volume-growth milestone gives the content of the paper's Q′′≤1/αk\mathcal Q''\le1/\alpha_kQ′′≤1/αk​ argument without requiring a second derivative at a kink; it applies across the actual interval starting at β\betaβ. The printed determinant sign is also adjusted to the descending columns by asserting nonsingularity, which is what the proof uses. The second-stage value milestone retains only the optimal value, because the optimal decisions the page calls unique need not be unique at ties. The mission must use the LP and counting definitions above; replacing them with an arbitrary function assumed to have the desired derivative would empty the reduction.

The formal work requires measure and integration theory, finite polytope volume, finite sums over subsets, matrix inverses, and real inequalities. Contributions proving the eight milestones and any honest supporting lemmas are welcome. The setup does not encode polynomial-time computability, bit lengths, or a #P complexity class, so closure of the Lean goal alone is not a formal proof of the full complexity statement.

Selected references

  • G. A. Hanasusanto, D. Kuhn and W. Wiesemann, A comment on “computational complexity of stochastic programming problems”, Optimization Online preprint 2015/03/4825, version of October 6, 2015; published in Mathematical Programming, 2016. Preprint.
  • M. Dyer and L. Stougie, Computational complexity of stochastic programming problems, Mathematical Programming 106 (2006), 423–432. DOI.
  • M. E. Dyer and A. M. Frieze, On the complexity of computing the volume of a polyhedron, SIAM Journal on Computing 17 (1988), 967–974. DOI.
  • W. Gautschi, On inverses of Vandermonde and confluent Vandermonde matrices, Numerische Mathematik 4 (1962), 117–123. Scan.
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OptimizationProbabilityStatistics·Captain: mikedeng1

Bootstrap Robust Prescriptive Analytics 1: The Entropic Robust Budget Is Broken on Bootstrap Data with Probability at Most Σⱼ exp(−n·max{r, rⱼⁿ})Research Paper

Motivation

Prescriptive analytics chooses a decision zzz from data after observing a context x0x_0x0​: a retailer sets an order quantity after seeing the weather forecast, a hospital schedules staff after seeing the day of the week. A common recipe estimates the expected cost of each decision from the training observations closest to x0x_0x0​ (nearest neighbours, or a kernel-weighted Nadaraya–Watson average) and then minimizes that estimate (Bertsimas and Kallus, 2020). The decision that minimizes an estimate tends to look better on the training data than it is: its estimated cost is optimistically biased. Bertsimas and Van Parys (arXiv:1711.09974v2) measure that optimism on resampled data. Bootstrap data are nnn independent draws from the training distribution, in the sense of Efron (1979). A cost budget computed on the training data disappoints when the estimate on a bootstrap sample exceeds it. The paper replaces the nominal estimate by a robust budget, a worst case over all distributions within relative-entropy distance rrr of the training distribution. Its Theorem 6 bounds the probability of disappointment by an explicit sum of exponentials in nnn.

This mission formalizes that theorem, together with the structural results its proof rests on and the Nadaraya–Watson special case, Corollary 2. The same paper's dual reformulation of the budget (Lemma 2) and its optimality statement for the relative entropy (Proposition 1) are the subject of two sibling missions.

Setting

The nnn training points have a finite set Ωn\Omega_nΩn​ of distinct values. A distribution on Ωn\Omega_nΩn​ is a vector D=(Di)i∈ΩnD=(D_i)_{i\in\Omega_n}D=(Di​)i∈Ωn​​ in the standard simplex; these form Dn\mathcal D_nDn​. The training distribution Dtr∈DnD_{\mathrm{tr}}\in\mathcal D_nDtr​∈Dn​ gives every point of Ωn\Omega_nΩn​ positive mass. The bootstrap distributions are

Dn,n={D∈Dn: nDi∈{0,1,…,n} ∀i}.\mathcal D_{n,n}=\{D\in\mathcal D_n:\ nD_i\in\{0,1,\dots,n\}\ \forall i\}.Dn,n​={D∈Dn​: nDi​∈{0,1,…,n} ∀i}.

These are the possible empirical distributions Dbs[n]D_{\mathrm{bs}[n]}Dbs[n]​ of nnn independent draws from DtrD_{\mathrm{tr}}Dtr​.

Around the context x0x_0x0​ the points of Ωn\Omega_nΩn​ are grouped into nested neighbourhoods ∅=N0⊆N1⊆⋯⊆Nn=Ωn\emptyset=N^0\subseteq N^1\subseteq\dots\subseteq N^n=\Omega_n∅=N0⊆N1⊆⋯⊆Nn=Ωn​. Each point iii carries a positive weight wiw_iwi​ and, for a decision zzz, a loss ℓi=L(z,yˉi)\ell_i=L(z,\bar y_i)ℓi​=L(z,yˉ​i​). Fix k∈{1,…,n}k\in\{1,\dots,n\}k∈{1,…,n}. The estimator (18) of a distribution DDD averages the loss with weights wiDiw_iD_iwi​Di​ over the smallest neighbourhood NjN^{j}Nj with DDD-mass at least k/nk/nk/n. For j∈[n]j\in[n]j∈[n], the partial estimator EDn,jE^{n,j}_DEDn,j​ is the value of the linear program (22). Its domain is contained in

Dnj={D∈Dn: ∑i∈Nj−1Di≤k−1n,  kn≤∑i∈NjDi},\mathcal D^j_n=\Big\{D\in\mathcal D_n:\ \sum_{i\in N^{j-1}}D_i\le\tfrac{k-1}{n},\ \ \tfrac kn\le\sum_{i\in N^j}D_i\Big\},Dnj​={D∈Dn​: i∈Nj−1∑​Di​≤nk−1​,  nk​≤i∈Nj∑​Di​},

and off that domain EDn,j=−∞E^{n,j}_D=-\inftyEDn,j​=−∞.

The bootstrap distance is the relative entropy

B(D,D′)=∑iDilog⁡DiDi′.B(D,D')=\sum_{i}D_i\log\frac{D_i}{D'_i}.B(D,D′)=i∑​Di​logDi′​Di​​.

The partial robust budgets are cnj=sup⁡{EDn,j: D∈Dn, B(D,Dtr)≤r}c^j_n=\sup\{E^{n,j}_D:\ D\in\mathcal D_n,\ B(D,D_{\mathrm{tr}})\le r\}cnj​=sup{EDn,j​: D∈Dn​, B(D,Dtr​)≤r}, the robust budget is cˉn=max⁡j∈[n]cnj\bar c_n=\max_{j\in[n]}c^j_ncˉn​=maxj∈[n]​cnj​ (26), and the minimum radii are rnj=inf⁡{B(D,Dtr):D∈Dnj}r^j_n=\inf\{B(D,D_{\mathrm{tr}}):D\in\mathcal D^j_n\}rnj​=inf{B(D,Dtr​):D∈Dnj​} (29).

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 6 (p. 15)

For every decision zzz,

P[EDbs[n]n[L(z,y) ∣ x=x0]>cˉn(z)] ≤ ∑j∈[n]exp⁡(−n⋅max⁡{r,rnj}).\mathbb P\Big[E^n_{D_{\mathrm{bs}[n]}}[L(z,y)\,|\,x=x_0]>\bar c_n(z)\Big]\ \le\ \sum_{j\in[n]}\exp\big(-n\cdot\max\{r,r^j_n\}\big).P[EDbs[n]​n​[L(z,y)∣x=x0​]>cˉn​(z)] ≤ j∈[n]∑​exp(−n⋅max{r,rnj​}).

The bound holds for every nnn, kkk, neighbourhood chain, weight vector and radius, with no asymptotics.

Milestones

  1. The domain inclusion (23), with EDn,j=−∞E^{n,j}_D=-\inftyEDn,j​=−∞ off Dnj\mathcal D^j_nDnj​ (p. 11).
  2. The closed form of EDn,jE^{n,j}_DEDn,j​ on Dnj\mathcal D^j_nDnj​ as a weighted average over NjN^jNj (B.1, p. 26).
  3. The sets Dnj∩Dn,n\mathcal D^j_n\cap\mathcal D_{n,n}Dnj​∩Dn,n​, j∈[n]j\in[n]j∈[n], partition Dn,n\mathcal D_{n,n}Dn,n​ (B.1, p. 26).
  4. Theorem 1: EDn=max⁡j∈[n]EDn,jE^n_D=\max_{j\in[n]}E^{n,j}_DEDn​=maxj∈[n]​EDn,j​ on Dn,n\mathcal D_{n,n}Dn,n​ (p. 11).
  5. Theorem 5, Csiszár's inequality: for every convex C⊆Dn\mathcal C\subseteq\mathcal D_nC⊆Dn​ and n≥1n\ge1n≥1,
P[Dbs[n]∈C]≤exp⁡(−ninf⁡D∈CB(D,Dtr))(p. 14).\mathbb P[D_{\mathrm{bs}[n]}\in\mathcal C]\le\exp\Big(-n\inf_{D\in\mathcal C}B(D,D_{\mathrm{tr}})\Big)\quad\text{(p. 14)}.P[Dbs[n]​∈C]≤exp(−nD∈Cinf​B(D,Dtr​))(p. 14).
  1. Each Cj={D∈Dnj:EDn,j>cˉ}\mathcal C_j=\{D\in\mathcal D^j_n:E^{n,j}_D>\bar c\}Cj​={D∈Dnj​:EDn,j​>cˉ} is convex (p. 15).
  2. On Dn,n\mathcal D_{n,n}Dn,n​, EDn>cˉE^n_D>\bar cEDn​>cˉ if and only if D∈⋃jCjD\in\bigcup_{j}\mathcal C_jD∈⋃j​Cj​ (p. 15).
  3. inf⁡D∈CjB(D,Dtr)≥max⁡{r,rnj}\inf_{D\in\mathcal C_j}B(D,D_{\mathrm{tr}})\ge\max\{r,r^j_n\}infD∈Cj​​B(D,Dtr​)≥max{r,rnj​} when cˉ=cˉn\bar c=\bar c_ncˉ=cˉn​ (p. 15).
  4. For Nadaraya–Watson, the disappointment set is convex and lies at bootstrap distance at least rrr (B.6, p. 30).
  5. Corollary 2: with k=nk=nk=n the disappointment is at most exp⁡(−n⋅r)\exp(-n\cdot r)exp(−n⋅r) (p. 16).

Significance

Theorem 6 makes the radius rrr an explicit statistical dial. The sum ∑jexp⁡(−nmax⁡{r,rnj})\sum_j\exp(-n\max\{r,r^j_n\})∑j​exp(−nmax{r,rnj​}) can be computed from the training data, because each rnjr^j_nrnj​ is a convex program. So a practitioner can choose rrr for a target disappointment bbb, and the bound decays exponentially in nnn at rate at least rrr. Corollary 2 gives a single exponential bound for Nadaraya–Watson: r≥log⁡(1/b)/nr\ge\log(1/b)/nr≥log(1/b)/n gives disappointment at most bbb. Together with the paper's Proposition 1, which shows that no smaller distance keeps the rate −r-r−r, the result explains why the relative entropy is the natural ambiguity measure for bootstrap guarantees.

On the formal side, the results are proved in the paper. Theorem 5 is cited there from Csiszár (1984), not reproved. The local platform search found no matching machine-checked statement of Theorem 6, Theorem 1 or Csiszár's convex-set inequality. A formal proof of Theorem 5 on a finite alphabet would be a reusable large-deviation tool: a finite-sample Sanov upper bound without polynomial prefactor, for empirical distributions of i.i.d. samples in any convex set. Theorem 1 and the partition lemma are the combinatorial facts behind the nearest-neighbours robust formulation of this paper.

Difficulty

Two steps carry the weight. The first is Theorem 5. The method of types alone gives P[Dbs[n]∈C]≤(n+1)∣Ωn∣exp⁡(−ninf⁡CB)\mathbb P[D_{\mathrm{bs}[n]}\in\mathcal C]\le(n+1)^{|\Omega_n|}\exp(-n\inf_{\mathcal C}B)P[Dbs[n]​∈C]≤(n+1)∣Ωn​∣exp(−ninfC​B), and its polynomial factor is fatal here: the goal has none. Removing it needs convexity of C\mathcal CC in an essential way; the bound is false for general sets. The set C\mathcal CC need not be closed and its infimum need not be attained. The second is Theorem 1. The estimator selects its neighbourhood depending on DDD, so it is neither linear nor concave in DDD. The disappointment event is therefore not convex, and Theorem 5 cannot be applied to it directly. Splitting it over the sets Dnj\mathcal D^j_nDnj​ needs the partition of Dn,n\mathcal D_{n,n}Dn,n​. That partition fails off the grid Dn,n\mathcal D_{n,n}Dn,n​: a mass strictly below k/nk/nk/n is at most (k−1)/n(k-1)/n(k−1)/n only for multiples of 1/n1/n1/n.

Formalization scope

The support Ωn\Omega_nΩn​ is a finite type ι\iotaι, and a distribution is a vector ι → ℝ in stdSimplex ℝ ι. Covariates, responses, the context and the distance function of Definition 2 do not appear. The neighbourhoods are a chain N : ℕ → Finset ι with Monotone N, N 0 = ∅ and N n = univ, which abstracts Definition 2 and its tie-breaking. Weights are positive, losses are real-valued (Assumption 1 allows +∞+\infty+∞; no planned statement needs it), and nonnegativity and convexity of the loss are not assumed. The relative entropy is EReal-valued, with 0log⁡0=00\log0=00log0=0 and B(D,D′)=+∞B(D,D')=+\inftyB(D,D′)=+∞ when Di′=0<DiD'_i=0<D_iDi′​=0<Di​. Every supremum and infimum that may be empty or unbounded is in EReal: an infeasible program (22) is −∞-\infty−∞, an empty Dnj\mathcal D^j_nDnj​ has rnj=+∞r^j_n=+\inftyrnj​=+∞, and exp⁡(−n⋅(+∞))=0\exp(-n\cdot(+\infty))=0exp(−n⋅(+∞))=0. The bootstrap law is the product measure Measure.pi of nnn copies of ∑iDtr,iδi\sum_iD_{\mathrm{tr},i}\delta_i∑i​Dtr,i​δi​. The robust budget is the formulation (26), max⁡jcnj\max_jc^j_nmaxj​cnj​, which the paper computes and which never exceeds (24). The theorem is stated for every decision zzz, not only for the robust prescriptor. The printed strict inequalities for the infima over Cj\mathcal C_jCj​ are stated as ≥\ge≥.

Trivializing encodings are ruled out explicitly. Real sSup/sInf would turn infeasible programs and empty sets into a finite 000. A real logarithm with a vanishing reference would give BBB a finite junk value. A single draw or a non-product law would make Theorem 5 false. A chain without N0=∅N^0=\emptysetN0=∅ and Nn=ΩnN^n=\Omega_nNn=Ωn​ would break the partition. expNeg treats +∞+\infty+∞ explicitly so that an empty Dnj\mathcal D^j_nDnj​ contributes 000, not 111.

A complete development needs the method of types on a finite alphabet, I-projections onto convex sets of the simplex, and the Pythagorean inequality. The latter two are reusable well beyond this mission. Contributions to any milestone, or to a standalone finite-alphabet Csiszár inequality, are welcome.

Selected references

  • D. Bertsimas and B. Van Parys, Bootstrap robust prescriptive analytics, arXiv:1711.09974v2, 2021. https://arxiv.org/abs/1711.09974
  • I. Csiszár, Sanov property, generalized I-projection and a conditional limit theorem, Annals of Probability 12(3), 1984. https://doi.org/10.1214/aop/1176993227
  • A. Dembo and O. Zeitouni, Large Deviations Techniques and Applications, Springer, 2nd ed., 2010. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-03311-7
  • B. Efron, Bootstrap methods: another look at the jackknife, Annals of Statistics 7(1), 1979. https://doi.org/10.1214/aos/1176344552
  • D. Bertsimas and N. Kallus, From predictive to prescriptive analytics, Management Science 66(3), 2020. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2018.3253
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OptimizationProbabilityStatistics·Captain: mikedeng1

From Data to Decisions: Distributionally Robust Optimization Is Optimal 3: On a Compact Continuous State Space the Relative-Entropy Robust Predictor Is Feasible and Strongly OptimalResearch Paper

Motivation

A decision maker who chooses xxx to minimize an expected cost c(x,P)=EP[γ(x,ξ)]c(x,\mathbb P)=\mathbb E_{\mathbb P}[\gamma(x,\xi)]c(x,P)=EP​[γ(x,ξ)] rarely knows the distribution P\mathbb PP of the random parameter ξ\xiξ. What is available is a sample ξ1,…,ξT\xi_1,\dots,\xi_Tξ1​,…,ξT​. Any rule that turns the sample into a cost estimate can disappoint: the realized expected cost may exceed the estimate. In a cost-minimization context such underestimates are more harmful than overestimates, which is why distributionally robust optimization replaces the unknown P\mathbb PP by a worst case over a set of distributions consistent with the data.

Van Parys, Mohajerin Esfahani and Kuhn (arXiv:1704.04118, Management Science 2021) asked which such rule is best. They define a data-driven predictor to be least conservative among all predictors whose probability of disappointment decays exponentially at a prescribed rate rrr, and they prove that a single predictor, the worst-case expected cost over a relative-entropy ball around the empirical distribution, is the unique strong solution. Their main results are for a finite set of outcomes Ξ={1,…,d}\Xi=\{1,\dots,d\}Ξ={1,…,d}. Section 5 extends the predictor result to an arbitrary compact Ξ⊆Rd\Xi\subseteq\mathbb R^dΞ⊆Rd; this mission formalizes that extension. The version used throughout is the arXiv preprint arXiv:1704.04118v3 (22 December 2019), and every index below is the preprint's.

Setting

Fix compact sets X⊆RnX\subseteq\mathbb R^nX⊆Rn (decisions) and Ξ⊆Rd\Xi\subseteq\mathbb R^dΞ⊆Rd (outcomes), and a cost γ:X×Ξ→R\gamma:X\times\Xi\to\mathbb Rγ:X×Ξ→R that is jointly continuous.

  • The model class P\mathcal PP is the set of Borel probability distributions on Ξ\XiΞ, with the topology of weak convergence. X×PX\times\mathcal PX×P carries the product topology.
  • The model-based predictor is c(x,P)=∫Ξγ(x,ξ) dP(ξ)c(x,\mathbb P)=\int_\Xi\gamma(x,\xi)\,\mathrm d\mathbb P(\xi)c(x,P)=∫Ξ​γ(x,ξ)dP(ξ).
  • The relative entropy of P′\mathbb P'P′ with respect to P\mathbb PP (Definition 8) is I(P′,P)=∫Ξlog⁡dP′dP dP′I(\mathbb P',\mathbb P)=\int_\Xi\log\frac{\mathrm d\mathbb P'}{\mathrm d\mathbb P}\,\mathrm d\mathbb P'I(P′,P)=∫Ξ​logdPdP′​dP′ if P′≪P\mathbb P'\ll\mathbb PP′≪P, and +∞+\infty+∞ otherwise.
  • Given independent samples ξ1,…,ξT\xi_1,\dots,\xi_Tξ1​,…,ξT​ from P\mathbb PP, the empirical distribution is P^T=1T∑t=1Tδξt\hat{\mathbb P}_T=\frac1T\sum_{t=1}^T\delta_{\xi_t}P^T​=T1​∑t=1T​δξt​​, and P∞\mathbb P^\inftyP∞ denotes the law of the sample path.
  • A data-driven predictor is a continuous function c^:X×P→R\hat c:X\times\mathcal P\to\mathbb Rc^:X×P→R; the estimate after TTT samples is c^(x,P^T)\hat c(x,\hat{\mathbb P}_T)c^(x,P^T​). Its out-of-sample disappointment is P∞(c(x,P)>c^(x,P^T))\mathbb P^\infty\big(c(x,\mathbb P)>\hat c(x,\hat{\mathbb P}_T)\big)P∞(c(x,P)>c^(x,P^T​)).
  • Problem (5): c^\hat cc^ is feasible if, for all x∈Xx\in Xx∈X and P∈P\mathbb P\in\mathcal PP∈P,
lim sup⁡T→∞1Tlog⁡P∞(c(x,P)>c^(x,P^T))≤−r,\limsup_{T\to\infty}\frac1T\log\mathbb P^\infty\big(c(x,\mathbb P)>\hat c(x,\hat{\mathbb P}_T)\big)\le -r,T→∞limsup​T1​logP∞(c(x,P)>c^(x,P^T​))≤−r,

and strongly optimal if it is feasible and c^(x,P′)≤c^′(x,P′)\hat c(x,\mathbb P')\le\hat c'(x,\mathbb P')c^(x,P′)≤c^′(x,P′) for all (x,P′)(x,\mathbb P')(x,P′) and every feasible c^′\hat c'c^′.

  • The distributionally robust predictor is c^r(x,P′)=sup⁡{c(x,P):P∈P, I(P′,P)≤r}\hat c_r(x,\mathbb P')=\sup\{c(x,\mathbb P):\mathbb P\in\mathcal P,\ I(\mathbb P',\mathbb P)\le r\}c^r​(x,P′)=sup{c(x,P):P∈P, I(P′,P)≤r}.
  • γˉ(x)=max⁡ξ∈Ξγ(x,ξ)\bar\gamma(x)=\max_{\xi\in\Xi}\gamma(x,\xi)γˉ​(x)=maxξ∈Ξ​γ(x,ξ) is the worst-case cost and Ξ⋆(x)\Xi^\star(x)Ξ⋆(x) the set of its maximizers.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 10 (p. 26)

r≥0 ⟹ c^r is feasible in (5),r>0 ⟹ c^r is strongly optimal in (5).r\ge0\ \Longrightarrow\ \hat c_r\text{ is feasible in (5)},\qquad r>0\ \Longrightarrow\ \hat c_r\text{ is strongly optimal in (5)}.r≥0 ⟹ c^r​ is feasible in (5),r>0 ⟹ c^r​ is strongly optimal in (5).

Both halves are in the goal. The case r=0r=0r=0 of feasibility is the statement that c^0=c\hat c_0=cc^0​=c is continuous.

Milestones

  • Lemma 1 (p. 23): ccc is continuous on X×PX\times\mathcal PX×P.
  • Lemma 2 (33), p. 29: c^r\hat c_rc^r​ equals a supremum over pairs (Pc,p)(\mathbb P_c,p)(Pc​,p) with P′≪p Pc≪P′\mathbb P'\ll p\,\mathbb P_c\ll\mathbb P'P′≪pPc​≪P′, where the mass 1−p1-p1−p is placed at cost γˉ(x)\bar\gamma(x)γˉ​(x).
  • Lemma 3 (p. 31): the perturbed problem (34), c^r,ϵ\hat c_{r,\epsilon}c^r,ϵ​, satisfies c^r≤c^r,ϵ≤c^r+ϵ\hat c_r\le\hat c_{r,\epsilon}\le\hat c_r+\epsilonc^r​≤c^r,ϵ​≤c^r​+ϵ.
  • Lemma 4 (35), p. 31:
c^r,ϵ(x,P′)≤min⁡α≥γˉ(x)+ϵ α−e−rexp⁡(∫Ξlog⁡(α−γ(x,ξ)) dP′(ξ)),\hat c_{r,\epsilon}(x,\mathbb P')\le\min_{\alpha\ge\bar\gamma(x)+\epsilon}\ \alpha-e^{-r}\exp\Big(\int_\Xi\log(\alpha-\gamma(x,\xi))\,\mathrm d\mathbb P'(\xi)\Big),c^r,ϵ​(x,P′)≤α≥γˉ​(x)+ϵmin​ α−e−rexp(∫Ξ​log(α−γ(x,ξ))dP′(ξ)),

with a minimizer α⋆≤(γˉ(x)+ϵ−e−rc(x,P′))/(1−e−r)\alpha^\star\le(\bar\gamma(x)+\epsilon-e^{-r}c(x,\mathbb P'))/(1-e^{-r})α⋆≤(γˉ​(x)+ϵ−e−rc(x,P′))/(1−e−r), and with equality for ϵ>0\epsilon>0ϵ>0.

  • Proposition 6 (p. 25): c^r\hat c_rc^r​ is continuous on X×PX\times\mathcal PX×P for r≥0r\ge0r≥0.
  • Theorem 9 (24a)/(24b), p. 25: the weak large deviation principle for P^T\hat{\mathbb P}_TP^T​ in the weak topology, with the closure cl⁡D\operatorname{cl}\mathcal DclD in the upper bound and the interior in the lower bound.
  • (41), p. 35: if P0(Ξ⋆(x))<1\mathbb P_0(\Xi^\star(x))<1P0​(Ξ⋆(x))<1 and c(x,P0)≥c^r(x,P′)c(x,\mathbb P_0)\ge\hat c_r(x,\mathbb P')c(x,P0​)≥c^r​(x,P′), then I(P′,P0)≥rI(\mathbb P',\mathbb P_0)\ge rI(P′,P0​)≥r.
  • Proposition 1(ii), (iii) in the general setting (p. 24): III is jointly convex and jointly lower semicontinuous on P×P\mathcal P\times\mathcal PP×P.

Proposition 5, the dual representation (23) of c^r\hat c_rc^r​ itself, is included as a further item; the proof of Theorem 10 goes through Lemmas 3–4 and does not use it.

Significance

Theorem 10 says that, on any compact outcome space, no continuous predictor is less conservative than c^r\hat c_rc^r​ while keeping its disappointment probability below e−rTe^{-rT}e−rT to first order in the exponent. Relative-entropy distributionally robust optimization is therefore not one choice among many ambiguity sets but the optimal one for this criterion, and the dual representation turns its evaluation into a one-dimensional convex problem. The paper also shows that the continuous-state analogue of its prescriptor result (Theorem 11) only holds up to an arbitrarily small shift, so the predictor statement formalized here is the clean part of the extension.

The results are proved in the paper; none is formalized. A complete development yields a formal Sanov-type weak large deviation principle for empirical measures in the weak topology, joint convexity and lower semicontinuity of the Kullback–Leibler divergence for probability measures on a compact metric space, and a measure-theoretic dual representation of a relative-entropy worst-case expectation. Mathlib has the Kullback–Leibler divergence klDiv and the weak topology on probability measures, but none of these three results.

Difficulty

The finite-state proof of feasibility bounds the disappointment through the large deviations upper bound over the disappointment set D\mathcal DD itself. On a continuous space that bound only holds over the closure cl⁡D\operatorname{cl}\mathcal DclD in the weak topology (24a), and the paper notes that this invalidates the finite-state argument (p. 25). The rate must then be controlled on a larger, closed set of empirical distributions, where the strict inequality defining a disappointment is lost; this is where the mass that P0\mathbb P_0P0​ puts on the worst-case scenarios Ξ⋆(x)\Xi^\star(x)Ξ⋆(x) starts to matter, as the hypothesis of (41) shows.

Continuity of c^r\hat c_rc^r​ in the weak topology is the second obstacle. The supremum runs over an infinite-dimensional set of distributions, a worst-case distribution may put mass outside the support of P′\mathbb P'P′, and the integrals involved can diverge or take the value −∞-\infty−∞. Weak convergence controls integrals of bounded continuous functions only, and log⁡(α−γ)\log(\alpha-\gamma)log(α−γ) is unbounded below at α=γˉ(x)\alpha=\bar\gamma(x)α=γˉ​(x).

Formalization scope

  • P\mathcal PP is ProbabilityMeasure ↥Ξ for the Borel σ-algebra of the subtype, with Mathlib's weak-convergence topology. XXX and Ξ\XiΞ are compact subsets of Euclidean spaces, γ:↥X→↥Ξ→R\gamma:↥X\to↥\Xi\to\mathbb Rγ:↥X→↥Ξ→R is jointly continuous; these standing assumptions of §2 (p. 5) and §5 (p. 23) appear as hypotheses of every theorem. No other hypothesis is added. Nonemptiness of Ξ\XiΞ is automatic wherever a distribution on Ξ\XiΞ is in scope.
  • III is Mathlib's InformationTheory.klDiv, valued in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞]. It equals Definition 8, including the value +∞+\infty+∞ when P′≪̸P\mathbb P'\not\ll\mathbb PP′≪P or when the log-likelihood ratio is not integrable.
  • The empirical distribution is defined for T≥1T\ge1T≥1. The probability of an event about P^T\hat{\mathbb P}_TP^T​ is the outer measure under the product measure P⊗T\mathbb P^{\otimes T}P⊗T, and is 000 at T=0T=0T=0; all statements are asymptotic in TTT.
  • Decay rates are stated without logarithms: lim sup⁡1Tlog⁡pT≤−s\limsup\frac1T\log p_T\le-slimsupT1​logpT​≤−s becomes "for every r′<sr'<sr′<s, eventually pT≤e−r′Tp_T\le e^{-r'T}pT​≤e−r′T", which is equivalent and handles pT=0p_T=0pT​=0. A naive Real.log encoding would be wrong, since Lean sets log⁡0=0\log0=0log0=0. Predictors must be continuous for the weak topology; dropping continuity, or replacing the weak topology by a finer one, changes the problem.
  • The constraint ∫log⁡(1pdP′dPc) dP′≤r\int\log(\frac1p\frac{\mathrm d\mathbb P'}{\mathrm d\mathbb P_c})\,\mathrm d\mathbb P'\le r∫log(p1​dPc​dP′​)dP′≤r in (33)–(34) carries an explicit integrability requirement, so that a divergent integral fails the constraint instead of evaluating to 000. The geometric mean exp⁡∫log⁡(α−γ) dP′\exp\int\log(\alpha-\gamma)\,\mathrm d\mathbb P'exp∫log(α−γ)dP′ follows the paper's convention log⁡0=−∞\log0=-\inftylog0=−∞; it is defined as inf⁡δ>0exp⁡∫log⁡(α+δ−γ) dP′\inf_{\delta>0}\exp\int\log(\alpha+\delta-\gamma)\,\mathrm d\mathbb P'infδ>0​exp∫log(α+δ−γ)dP′, which is the same value for α≥γˉ(x)\alpha\ge\bar\gamma(x)α≥γˉ​(x).
  • At the end of the proof of Theorem 10 the page writes "when ϵ>0\epsilon>0ϵ>0" for strong optimality; the theorem statement says r>0r>0r>0, which is what is formalized.

Contributions are welcome at every level: a Sanov upper and lower bound for empirical measures on compact metric spaces, convexity and lower semicontinuity of klDiv, and the measure-theoretic duality of Lemma 4 are each reusable beyond this mission.

Selected references

  • B. P. G. Van Parys, P. Mohajerin Esfahani, D. Kuhn, From Data to Decisions: Distributionally Robust Optimization is Optimal, Management Science 67(6), 2021. Preprint arXiv:1704.04118v3. https://arxiv.org/abs/1704.04118
  • I. Csiszár, A simple proof of Sanov's theorem, Bulletin of the Brazilian Mathematical Society 37(4), 2006. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00574-006-0023-1
  • T. van Erven, P. Harremoës, Rényi divergence and Kullback–Leibler divergence, IEEE Transactions on Information Theory 60(7), 2014. https://doi.org/10.1109/TIT.2014.2320500
  • A. Dembo, O. Zeitouni, Large Deviations Techniques and Applications, 2nd ed., Springer, 1998. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4612-5320-4
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Machine LearningOptimal TransportOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Regularization via Mass Transportation I: Wasserstein-Robust Linear Classification with Label Flipping Is a Finite Convex ProgramResearch Paper

Motivation

A classifier trained from finitely many examples can perform well on those examples while responding poorly to changes in the feature distribution or to mislabeled observations. Distributionally robust learning addresses this by choosing a classifier against every probability distribution within a specified distance of the empirical distribution. The resulting optimization appears to range over an infinite-dimensional family of distributions. Shafieezadeh-Abadeh, Kuhn, and Mohajerin Esfahani show that, for linear classification with a convex Lipschitz loss, this problem has an exact finite convex reformulation. That result is Theorem 3.11(ii) of the 2019 arXiv preprint, which is the source used here.

The authors' transport metric allows a data point's features to move and its binary label to flip, with separate prices for those two changes. This matters when robustness to inaccurate labels is part of the model. A label-preserving metric cannot express that choice. The paper builds on its Section 2 learning model and the transport duality developed in Appendix A.1; the present mission isolates the classification result and the intermediate statements used for it. The preprint's Corollary 3.14 specializes the result to logloss, while its Corollary 3.12 treats hinge loss. A logloss-specific reformulation and a label-preserving classification result already have proved statements on Prove2Me; the general convex-Lipschitz, finite label-cost theorem remains the target of this mission.

Setting

Let VVV be a finite-dimensional real vector space with a chosen norm ∥⋅∥\|\cdot\|∥⋅∥. Features are x∈Vx\in Vx∈V and labels are y∈{−1,+1}y\in\{-1,+1\}y∈{−1,+1}. A linear classifier is a continuous linear functional w:V→Rw:V\to\mathbb Rw:V→R, with score ⟨w,x⟩=w(x)\langle w,x\rangle=w(x)⟨w,x⟩=w(x). Its dual norm ∥w∥∗\|w\|_*∥w∥∗​ is the operator norm induced by ∥⋅∥\|\cdot\|∥⋅∥. Given N≥1N\ge1N≥1 training pairs (x^i,y^i)(\hat x_i,\hat y_i)(x^i​,y^​i​), their empirical distribution is P^N=N−1∑i=1Nδ(x^i,y^i)\hat P_N=N^{-1}\sum_{i=1}^N\delta_{(\hat x_i,\hat y_i)}P^N​=N−1∑i=1N​δ(x^i​,y^​i​)​.

For κ>0\kappa>0κ>0, the transport cost between pairs is

d((x,y),(x′,y′))=∥x−x′∥+κ1y≠y′.d((x,y),(x',y'))=\|x-x'\|+\kappa\mathbf1_{y\ne y'}.d((x,y),(x′,y′))=∥x−x′∥+κ1y=y′​.

The Wasserstein distance W(Q,P)W(Q,P)W(Q,P) is the least expected transport cost among joint distributions whose two marginals are QQQ and PPP. For a radius ρ≥0\rho\ge0ρ≥0, the Wasserstein ball Bρ(P^N)\mathbb B_\rho(\hat P_N)Bρ​(P^N​) contains probability distributions QQQ satisfying W(Q,P^N)≤ρW(Q,\hat P_N)\le\rhoW(Q,P^N​)≤ρ. The loss is L(y⟨w,x⟩)L(y\langle w,x\rangle)L(y⟨w,x⟩), where L:R→[0,∞)L:\mathbb R\to[0,\infty)L:R→[0,∞) is convex and Lipschitz continuous. The Lipschitz modulus lip⁡(L)\operatorname{lip}(L)lip(L) is the smallest Lipschitz bound for LLL, defined as the supremum of its difference quotients. These are the objects and standing conventions of Sections 1.1, 2, and 3.2 of the preprint.

Formalization targets

The goal is Theorem 3.11(ii): for every fixed www, the worst-case expected loss equals the value of program (18),

sup⁡Q∈Bρ(P^N)EQ[L(y⟨w,x⟩)]=inf⁡λ,s{λρ+1N∑i=1Nsi:L(y^i⟨w,x^i⟩)≤si,L(−y^i⟨w,x^i⟩)−κλ≤si(i=1,…,N),lip⁡(L)∥w∥∗≤λ}.\sup_{Q\in\mathbb B_\rho(\hat P_N)}\mathbb E^Q[L(y\langle w,x\rangle)] = \inf_{\lambda,s}\left\{\lambda\rho+\frac1N\sum_{i=1}^{N}s_i: \begin{array}{l} L(\hat y_i\langle w,\hat x_i\rangle)\le s_i,\\ L(-\hat y_i\langle w,\hat x_i\rangle)-\kappa\lambda\le s_i\quad(i=1,\ldots,N),\\ \operatorname{lip}(L)\|w\|_*\le\lambda \end{array}\right\}.Q∈Bρ​(P^N​)sup​EQ[L(y⟨w,x⟩)]=λ,sinf​⎩⎨⎧​λρ+N1​i=1∑N​si​:L(y^​i​⟨w,x^i​⟩)≤si​,L(−y^​i​⟨w,x^i​⟩)−κλ≤si​(i=1,…,N),lip(L)∥w∥∗​≤λ​⎭⎬⎫​.

Taking the infimum of both sides over www gives equality between problem (4) and the full program (18). The fixed-www identity is stated explicitly because it is the stronger assertion established in the proof. The milestone list follows the paper's appendix: Lemma A.1 converts the robust expectation into a scalar transport-price infimum; the label split isolates the two possible labels; Lemma A.3 evaluates the feature supremum; the ensuing display gives the program in terms of conjugate slopes; and the final identity identifies those slopes with lip⁡(L)\operatorname{lip}(L)lip(L). Each milestone is tied to its printed page in the preprint.

Significance

The theorem replaces a search over probability distributions by a finite convex program with one scalar λ\lambdaλ and one slack variable sis_isi​ per sample, in addition to the classifier www. It makes the price of label changes explicit through κλ\kappa\lambdaκλ and the price of feature changes through lip⁡(L)∥w∥∗\operatorname{lip}(L)\|w\|_*lip(L)∥w∥∗​. Consequently, different convex Lipschitz classification losses can be treated within the same transport model rather than by deriving a new distributional optimization problem for each loss. The preprint applies the result to hinge, smoothed hinge, and logloss examples in the paragraphs following Theorem 3.11.

The result is proved in the cited paper. Its general statement and the paper's appendix milestones are not yet machine-checked in this mission. A verified development would connect the published definitions of the Wasserstein ball and Lipschitz modulus to an exact program-value theorem that later work can import. The loss-specific proved statements already available on Prove2Me provide useful comparisons, but their narrower losses or label-preserving transport costs do not replace this theorem.

Difficulty

The visible finite constraints contain no probability distributions, while the left-hand side optimizes over all probability measures in a Wasserstein ball. Establishing that the two values coincide requires control of the transport budget and the inner worst-case loss at the same time. The straightforward comparison of feasible values gives only one inequality. It does not show that every improvement allowed by a distribution can be represented by the scalar transport price and the samplewise constraints. The case ρ=0\rho=0ρ=0 also needs care: Lemma A.1's strong-duality proof cites a result for strictly positive radius, whereas the theorem itself allows zero radius and states an infimum rather than an attained minimum.

Formalization scope

Lean represents VVV by an abstract finite-dimensional real normed space with its Borel measurable structure. This retains the arbitrary norm of Rn\mathbb R^nRn in the paper. Labels are Bool, interpreted as +1+1+1 and −1-1−1; the published DRLogReg_Reformulation_Core definition supplies their sign map, the metric, Wasserstein distance, ball, and empirical distribution. The published WassersteinDRO_Duality_lipschitzModulus definition supplies the exact Lipschitz modulus. The mission's own definitions add the general loss, the feasible set of (18), the fixed-classifier program value, and the effective domain Θ={θ:L∗(θ)<∞}\Theta=\{\theta:L^*(\theta)<\infty\}Θ={θ:L∗(θ)<∞} of the convex conjugate. The same objects and conventions are used across all milestones.

All potentially infinite robust values are represented in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞]; the unbounded feature suprema in Lemma A.3 and the label split use extended reals. The standing loss condition L≥0L\ge0L≥0 comes from the paper's Section 2.1 loss codomain. It also makes the lower Lebesgue integral and the finite program's extended-nonnegative objective faithful. The sample size is positive, κ>0\kappa>0κ>0, and the goal allows ρ=0\rho=0ρ=0. Lemma A.1 separately assumes ρ>0\rho>0ρ>0, matching the strong-duality condition used on page 29. The printed extra index j∈[J]j\in[J]j∈[J] in the page-35 classification display is carried in its verbatim milestone provenance but not in the Lean statement, because no jjj exists in part (ii). The formalization does not obtain the theorem by restricting LLL to a constant loss, by taking a singleton feature space, or by substituting an arbitrary Lipschitz bound for its modulus. Contributions that establish transport duality, the conjugate-domain slope identity, or the zero-radius case are directly reusable.

Selected references

  • S. Shafieezadeh-Abadeh, D. Kuhn, and P. Mohajerin Esfahani, Regularization via Mass Transportation, arXiv preprint arXiv:1710.10016v3, 2019. Preprint.
  • S. Shafieezadeh-Abadeh, P. Mohajerin Esfahani, and D. Kuhn, Distributionally Robust Logistic Regression, Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 28, 2015. Published Prove2Me formalization.
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Linear OptimizationOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Constrained Assortment Optimization for the Nested Logit Model 4: Under Space Constraints, O(n²) Rounded Knapsack-Relaxation Assortments Include a min{2, 1/(1−ε)}-Approximate Solution for Every u ≥ 0Research Paper

Why space-constrained assortments matter

A retailer choosing which products to display faces a physical limit: different products consume different amounts of shelf space. Under a nested logit choice model, the value of an assortment also depends on how customers substitute among products within a nest and on whether they leave without buying. Gallego and Topaloglu study this combination of choice and feasibility constraints in Constrained Assortment Optimization for the Nested Logit Model. Their authors' manuscript of September 11, 2013 is the numbered source for this mission. Its §5 isolates a finite family of candidate assortments for each nest, despite the per-nest space-constrained problem being a knapsack problem. A small family matters because the paper's earlier Theorem 4 can then combine the families across nests while controlling expected revenue.

The paper contrasts this case with cardinality constraints. When every product consumes one unit, the per-nest optimization can be solved exactly by a short list of candidates. General space requirements turn it into a knapsack problem, so the paper gives quantitative approximation factors instead. The factor improves when no single product occupies much of a nest's capacity. These statements and their dependencies occur in §§5.1–5.2, pp. 19–22 of the manuscript.

Products, nests, and the parameterized problem

There is a finite set of nests MMM and a nonempty finite product set N={1,…,n}N=\{1,\ldots,n\}N={1,…,n} in each nest. In nest iii, product jjj has preference weight vij>0v_{ij}>0vij​>0, real revenue rijr_{ij}rij​, and space requirement wij>0w_{ij}>0wij​>0. The nest's capacity is cic_ici​, and each product fits by itself: wij≤ciw_{ij}\le c_iwij​≤ci​. An assortment Si⊆NS_i\subseteq NSi​⊆N is feasible when its total space requirement is at most cic_ici​. The empty assortment is feasible and gives zero revenue. The full nested logit model has a no-purchase preference weight v0v_0v0​ and a dissimilarity parameter γi∈(0,1]\gamma_i\in(0,1]γi​∈(0,1] for each nest; these parameters are relevant to the cross-nest expected revenue, but the local problem of this mission uses only one nest's product data.

For an assortment SiS_iSi​, write Vi(Si)=∑j∈SivijV_i(S_i)=\sum_{j\in S_i}v_{ij}Vi​(Si​)=∑j∈Si​​vij​ and Ri(Si)=∑j∈Sivijrij/Vi(Si)R_i(S_i)=\sum_{j\in S_i}v_{ij}r_{ij}/V_i(S_i)Ri​(Si​)=∑j∈Si​​vij​rij​/Vi​(Si​), with Ri(∅)=0R_i(\varnothing)=0Ri​(∅)=0. The paper's parameterized local problem, problem (7), maximizes Vi(Si)(Ri(Si)−u)V_i(S_i)(R_i(S_i)-u)Vi​(Si​)(Ri​(Si​)−u) over feasible assortments for each u≥0u\ge0u≥0. Since the within-nest no-purchase weight is zero, equation (8) gives its equivalent sum of product utilities:

Vi(Si)(Ri(Si)−u)=∑j∈Sivij(rij−u).V_i(S_i)(R_i(S_i)-u)=\sum_{j\in S_i}v_{ij}(r_{ij}-u).Vi​(Si​)(Ri​(Si​)−u)=j∈Si​∑​vij​(rij​−u).

Problem (10) is this objective written as a zero-one knapsack: each product decision is zero or one and ∑jwijxij≤ci\sum_jw_{ij}x_{ij}\le c_i∑j​wij​xij​≤ci​. Its LP relaxation permits 0≤xij≤10\le x_{ij}\le10≤xij​≤1. At parameter uuu, the product's utility-to-space ratio is fij(u)=vij(rij−u)/wijf_{ij}(u)=v_{ij}(r_{ij}-u)/w_{ij}fij​(u)=vij​(rij​−u)/wij​. Rounding a relaxation solution down retains precisely the products with xij=1x_{ij}=1xij​=1. The candidate family also contains each singleton assortment {j}\{j\}{j}.

Formalization targets

Theorem 6 asserts that a collection Ai\mathcal A_iAi​ of at most quadratic size includes a two-approximate solution to problem (7) for every u≥0u\ge0u≥0. Here an assortment SSS is α\alphaα-approximate at uuu if it is feasible and αVi(S)(Ri(S)−u)\alpha V_i(S)(R_i(S)-u)αVi​(S)(Ri​(S)−u) is at least the objective of every feasible assortment. The O(n2)O(n^2)O(n2) statement is pinned to the explicit bound ∣Ai∣≤(n+1)2|\mathcal A_i|\le(n+1)^2∣Ai​∣≤(n+1)2.

∀u≥0,∃S∈Ai:∀T∈Ci,Vi(T)(Ri(T)−u)≤2Vi(S)(Ri(S)−u).\forall u\ge0,\quad \exists S\in\mathcal A_i:\quad \forall T\in C_i,\quad V_i(T)(R_i(T)-u)\le 2V_i(S)(R_i(S)-u).∀u≥0,∃S∈Ai​:∀T∈Ci​,Vi​(T)(Ri​(T)−u)≤2Vi​(S)(Ri​(S)−u).

The §5.2 target keeps the same collection and adds the finer guarantee whenever each product is small relative to capacity. For every ϵ∈[0,1)\epsilon\in[0,1)ϵ∈[0,1) such that wij≤ϵciw_{ij}\le\epsilon c_iwij​≤ϵci​ for all jjj, and for every u≥0u\ge0u≥0, some member of Ai\mathcal A_iAi​ satisfies

∀T∈Ci,Vi(T)(Ri(T)−u)≤11−ϵVi(S)(Ri(S)−u).\forall T\in C_i,\quad V_i(T)(R_i(T)-u)\le\frac{1}{1-\epsilon}V_i(S)(R_i(S)-u).∀T∈Ci​,Vi​(T)(Ri​(T)−u)≤1−ϵ1​Vi​(S)(Ri​(S)−u).

The two members need not be the same, but the finite family is fixed before uuu and ϵ\epsilonϵ are chosen. Together the claims yield the paper's factor min⁡{2,1/(1−ϵ)}\min\{2,1/(1-\epsilon)\}min{2,1/(1−ϵ)}. The main goal formalizes both parts; Theorem 6 and the paper's intermediate statements are milestones.

What the guarantees supply

The local result converts infinitely many parameter values into a finite search domain. Theorem 4 of the same paper says that if each nest has candidates containing an α\alphaα-approximate local solution for every u≥0u\ge0u≥0, then some cross-nest combination obtains at least the optimal expected revenue divided by α\alphaα. Theorem 2 relates the best combination of candidates to a linear program. Thus the finite collection in this mission supplies the local ingredient needed for the paper's global factor two, or the smaller factor under the product-size condition. These consequences are stated in the paragraphs immediately following Theorem 6 and the §5.2 conclusion.

The paper already proves these mathematical results. This mission asks for machine-checked proofs of its specific knapsack relaxation, rounding inequality, and approximation statements. It also creates reusable finite-knapsack definitions and explicit interfaces between the paper's local objective and the published nested logit model. The goal and milestones here remain open Lean statements until solvers provide proofs; compiling a statement with sorry checks its syntax and types, not its mathematical validity.

Where the argument is delicate

The parameter uuu ranges over a continuum, yet one family of bounded size must work for all of it. Different values of uuu change the objective coefficients and may change which products belong in an LP optimum. At ties or sign changes, the optimum need not be unique, so a statement about a particular chosen solution requires care. A second difficulty is the fractional LP coordinate: its value can exceed the rounded set's objective, and the refined factor uses a comparison between its utility and the space already occupied. The displayed chain in §5.2 contains quotients that can have zero denominators; the formal milestone states its endpoint inequality directly. A fractional product with zero utility need not force capacity to be filled, which is why the capacity-consumption milestone states positive utility explicitly.

Formalization scope

The existing NestedLogitVariants.LP.Model supplies the nested logit instance and its ViV_iVi​ and RiR_iRi​ functions. A general finite continuous-knapsack definition is separate from the paper-specific assortment data. Products use Fin n, nests use a finite type, and assortments use finite sets. The empty finite set represents 0ˉ\bar 00ˉ. The model's within-nest no-purchase weight is fixed to zero, as in the manuscript's main local formulation. Revenues remain arbitrary real numbers; there is no assumption that they are nonnegative or sorted. The capacity and product space requirements are real numbers, with wij>0w_{ij}>0wij​>0 and wij≤ciw_{ij}\le c_iwij​≤ci​. Positive preference weights and nonempty NNN are explicit. No condition on γi\gamma_iγi​ or v0v_0v0​ is needed for this local problem (7).

The candidate family is a finite set of rounded LP optima and all singletons. Its size is bounded before uuu and ϵ\epsilonϵ are quantified. Each approximation compares against feasible integer assortments using problem (7), including the empty assortment. The LP optimum itself is never substituted for the integer comparator. General unequal space requirements remain in scope. Contributions that formalize the parametric LP behavior, its one-fractional-coordinate optimum, and the paper's two rounding guarantees fit this mission.

Selected references

  • Guillermo Gallego and Huseyin Topaloglu, Constrained Assortment Optimization for the Nested Logit Model, Management Science 60(10), 2014, DOI 10.1287/mnsc.2014.1931. Authors' manuscript, September 11, 2013, especially pp. 7–8 and 19–22.
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Algorithmic Game TheoryConvex OptimizationOptimization+1·Captain: mikedeng1

On Synchronous, Asynchronous, and Randomized Best-Response Schemes for Stochastic Nash Games 2: Randomized Inexact Best Response Reaches an ϵ-NE in Explicitly Bounded Expected SG StepsResearch Paper

Motivation

Many noncooperative problems in communication networks, power markets and supply chains are stochastic Nash games. Each player minimizes an expected cost that depends on its own decision and on the decisions of its rivals, and the expectation can only be sampled, not evaluated. A natural distributed way to compute an equilibrium is the best-response scheme: each player repeatedly replies optimally to the rivals' current strategies. In a stochastic game an exact best response is itself an expectation-valued optimization problem, so a practical scheme replies inexactly, running a few stochastic gradient steps per reply. Lei, Shanbhag, Pang and Sen (arXiv:1704.04578v2; Mathematics of Operations Research, 2020) analyse three such inexact proximal best-response schemes: synchronous, randomized and asynchronous. For each they prove a linear rate of convergence and a bound on the total number of projected stochastic gradient steps.

This mission concerns the randomized scheme. In large games it is unrealistic for all players to update at every round; in the paper's model each player independently decides to update with probability pip_ipi​. This is the game-theoretic analogue of randomized block-coordinate descent (Nesterov 2012; Richtárik–Takáč 2014). A local Poisson clock per player is a special case (Remark 5 of the paper). The synchronous scheme, the paper's Theorem 1, and the asynchronous scheme are separate missions of this series.

Setting

There are N≥1N \ge 1N≥1 players. Player iii chooses xix_ixi​ in a compact convex set Xi⊆RniX_i \subseteq \mathbb R^{n_i}Xi​⊆Rni​ and minimizes

fi(xi,x−i)=E[ψi(xi,x−i;ξ)],f_i(x_i, x_{-i}) = \mathbb E\big[\psi_i(x_i, x_{-i}; \xi)\big],fi​(xi​,x−i​)=E[ψi​(xi​,x−i​;ξ)],

where ξ\xiξ is a random vector and the oracle returns sampled gradients ∇xiψi(x;ξ)\nabla_{x_i}\psi_i(x; \xi)∇xi​​ψi​(x;ξ) with E∥∇xiψi∥2≤Mi2\mathbb E\|\nabla_{x_i}\psi_i\|^2 \le M_i^2E∥∇xi​​ψi​∥2≤Mi2​ (Assumption 1). A Nash equilibrium x∗x^*x∗ is a profile in X=∏iXiX = \prod_i X_iX=∏i​Xi​ from which no player can lower its cost by deviating alone.

For μ>0\mu > 0μ>0 the proximal best response to a profile yyy is

x^i(y)=argmin⁡xi∈Xi[fi(xi,y−i)+μ2∥xi−yi∥2].\widehat x_i(y) = \operatorname*{argmin}_{x_i \in X_i}\Big[f_i(x_i, y_{-i}) + \tfrac{\mu}{2}\|x_i - y_i\|^2\Big].xi​(y)=xi​∈Xi​argmin​[fi​(xi​,y−i​)+2μ​∥xi​−yi​∥2].

The N×NN\times NN×N matrix Γ\GammaΓ has entries γii=μ/(μ+ζi,min⁡)\gamma_{ii} = \mu/(\mu + \zeta_{i,\min})γii​=μ/(μ+ζi,min​) and γij=ζij,max⁡/(μ+ζi,min⁡)\gamma_{ij} = \zeta_{ij,\max}/(\mu + \zeta_{i,\min})γij​=ζij,max​/(μ+ζi,min​), built from the extreme curvatures ζi,min⁡=inf⁡Xλmin⁡(∇xi2fi)\zeta_{i,\min} = \inf_X \lambda_{\min}(\nabla^2_{x_i}f_i)ζi,min​=infX​λmin​(∇xi​2​fi​) and ζij,max⁡=sup⁡X∥∇xixj2fi∥\zeta_{ij,\max} = \sup_X\|\nabla^2_{x_ix_j}f_i\|ζij,max​=supX​∥∇xi​xj​2​fi​∥. Assumption 2 is a=∥Γ∥<1a = \|\Gamma\| < 1a=∥Γ∥<1 (spectral norm).

Algorithm 2. At major iteration kkk, each player iii flips an independent coin χi,k∈{0,1}\chi_{i,k} \in \{0,1\}χi,k​∈{0,1} with P(χi,k=1)=pi>0\mathbb P(\chi_{i,k} = 1) = p_i > 0P(χi,k​=1)=pi​>0, independent of the past information Fk\mathcal F_kFk​ (Assumption 3). If χi,k=1\chi_{i,k} = 1χi,k​=1, the player replaces xi,kx_{i,k}xi,k​ by an inexact proximal best response xi,k+1∈Xix_{i,k+1} \in X_ixi,k+1​∈Xi​ with

E[∥xi,k+1−x^i(xk)∥2∣Fk]≤αi,k2;\mathbb E\big[\|x_{i,k+1} - \widehat x_i(x_k)\|^2 \mid \mathcal F_k\big] \le \alpha_{i,k}^2;E[∥xi,k+1​−xi​(xk​)∥2∣Fk​]≤αi,k2​;

otherwise xi,k+1=xi,kx_{i,k+1} = x_{i,k}xi,k+1​=xi,k​. The accuracy αi,k=ηβi,k+1\alpha_{i,k} = \eta^{\beta_{i,k}+1}αi,k​=ηβi,k​+1 is tied to the number of updates βi,k=∑l<kχi,l\beta_{i,k} = \sum_{l<k}\chi_{i,l}βi,k​=∑l<k​χi,l​ the player has made so far. The reply is computed by ji,k=⌈Qi/η2(βi,k+1)⌉j_{i,k} = \lceil Q_i/\eta^{2(\beta_{i,k}+1)}\rceilji,k​=⌈Qi​/η2(βi,k​+1)⌉ projected stochastic gradient steps

zi,t+1=ΠXi[zi,t−γt(∇xiψi(zi,t,x−i,k;ξi,kt)+μ(zi,t−xi,k))],γt=1μ(t+1),z_{i,t+1} = \Pi_{X_i}\big[z_{i,t} - \gamma_t\big(\nabla_{x_i}\psi_i(z_{i,t}, x_{-i,k}; \xi^t_{i,k}) + \mu(z_{i,t} - x_{i,k})\big)\big],\qquad \gamma_t = \tfrac{1}{\mu(t+1)},zi,t+1​=ΠXi​​[zi,t​−γt​(∇xi​​ψi​(zi,t​,x−i,k​;ξi,kt​)+μ(zi,t​−xi,k​))],γt​=μ(t+1)1​,

from zi,1=xi,kz_{i,1} = x_{i,k}zi,1​=xi,k​, where Qi=2Mi2/μ2+2DXi2Q_i = 2M_i^2/\mu^2 + 2D_{X_i}^2Qi​=2Mi2​/μ2+2DXi​2​ and DXiD_{X_i}DXi​​ is the diameter of XiX_iXi​. The analysis uses the weighted norm ∥x∥P2=∑i∥xi∥2/pi\|x\|_P^2 = \sum_i \|x_i\|^2/p_i∥x∥P2​=∑i​∥xi​∥2/pi​ and the constants a~2=1−pmin⁡(1−a2)\tilde a^2 = 1 - p_{\min}(1 - a^2)a~2=1−pmin​(1−a2), η~2=1−pmin⁡(1−η2)\tilde\eta^2 = 1 - p_{\min}(1 - \eta^2)η~​2=1−pmin​(1−η2) and η~0−2=pmax⁡(η−2−1)+1\tilde\eta_0^{-2} = p_{\max}(\eta^{-2} - 1) + 1η~​0−2​=pmax​(η−2−1)+1.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 2, (34)

Let c~=max⁡{a~,η~}\tilde c = \max\{\tilde a, \tilde\eta\}c~=max{a~,η~​}, q~∈(c~,1)\tilde q \in (\tilde c, 1)q~​∈(c~,1), D=1/(eln⁡(q~/c~))D = 1/(e\ln(\tilde q/\tilde c))D=1/(eln(q~​/c~)), C~=C(∑iN−1pi−1)1/2\tilde C = C(\sum_i N^{-1}p_i^{-1})^{1/2}C~=C(∑i​N−1pi−1​)1/2, D~=Dη/η~\tilde D = D\eta/\tilde\etaD~=Dη/η~​ and ϵ~=ϵ/((Npmax⁡)1/2(C~+D~))∈(0,1)\tilde\epsilon = \epsilon/((Np_{\max})^{1/2}(\tilde C + \tilde D)) \in (0,1)ϵ~=ϵ/((Npmax​)1/2(C~+D~))∈(0,1), where ∥xi,0−xi∗∥≤C\|x_{i,0} - x_i^*\| \le C∥xi,0​−xi∗​∥≤C. After K=⌈ln⁡(1/ϵ~)/ln⁡(1/q~)⌉K = \lceil\ln(1/\tilde\epsilon)/\ln(1/\tilde q)\rceilK=⌈ln(1/ϵ~)/ln(1/q~​)⌉ major iterations, xKx_KxK​ is an ϵ\epsilonϵ-NE2_22​, i.e. E(∑i∥xi,K−xi∗∥2)1/2≤ϵ\mathbb E\big(\sum_i\|x_{i,K} - x_i^*\|^2\big)^{1/2} \le \epsilonE(∑i​∥xi,K​−xi∗​∥2)1/2≤ϵ, and for every player

E[∑k=0K−1ji,kχi,k]≤piQiη2η~02ln⁡(1/η~02)(1ϵ~)ln⁡(1/η~02)/ln⁡(1/q~)+⌈ln⁡(1/ϵ~)ln⁡(1/q~)⌉.\mathbb E\Big[\sum_{k=0}^{K-1} j_{i,k}\chi_{i,k}\Big] \le \frac{p_iQ_i}{\eta^2\tilde\eta_0^2\ln(1/\tilde\eta_0^2)}\Big(\frac1{\tilde\epsilon}\Big)^{\ln(1/\tilde\eta_0^2)/\ln(1/\tilde q)} + \Big\lceil\frac{\ln(1/\tilde\epsilon)}{\ln(1/\tilde q)}\Big\rceil.E[k=0∑K−1​ji,k​χi,k​]≤η2η~​02​ln(1/η~​02​)pi​Qi​​(ϵ~1​)ln(1/η~​02​)/ln(1/q~​)+⌈ln(1/q~​)ln(1/ϵ~)​⌉.

Milestones

In the order the proof uses them:

  1. the Γ\GammaΓ-contraction (5);
  2. its Euclidean form (9);
  3. the fixed-point identity x^(x∗)=x∗\widehat x(x^*) = x^*x(x∗)=x∗;
  4. the one-step descent (A.3) and its contraction form (B.1) in ∥⋅∥P\|\cdot\|_P∥⋅∥P​;
  5. the binomial moments (B.3) and (36) of η±2βi,k\eta^{\pm2\beta_{i,k}}η±2βi,k​;
  6. the elementary inequalities Lemma 2 (zcz≤Dqzzc^z \le Dq^zzcz≤Dqz) and (30) (a geometric sum bounded by an integral);
  7. the linear rate, Lemma 5: E∥xk−x∗∥P≤N(C~+D~)q~k\mathbb E\|x_k - x^*\|_P \le \sqrt N(\tilde C + \tilde D)\tilde q^kE∥xk​−x∗∥P​≤N​(C~+D~)q~​k;
  8. its transfer to the unweighted error, Remark 6;
  9. the inner-loop bound, Lemma 6: E[∥zi,t−x^i(yk)∥2∣Fk]≤Qi/(t+1)\mathbb E[\|z_{i,t} - \widehat x_i(y_k)\|^2 \mid \mathcal F_k] \le Q_i/(t+1)E[∥zi,t​−xi​(yk​)∥2∣Fk​]≤Qi​/(t+1).

Significance

Theorem 2 gives an explicit, non-asymptotic sample complexity for computing a Nash equilibrium of a stochastic game when only a random subset of players acts at each round. Its exponent ln⁡(1/η~02)/ln⁡(1/q~)\ln(1/\tilde\eta_0^2)/\ln(1/\tilde q)ln(1/η~​02​)/ln(1/q~​) quantifies the price of randomization: Remark 7 of the paper shows it reduces to the synchronous exponent exactly when every pi=1p_i = 1pi​=1. Lemma 5 is the first linear-rate statement for inexact randomized best responses in this setting. The weighted-norm argument of App. A–B is the device that makes block-randomized fixed-point iterations contract.

The results are proved on paper. None of them has a machine-checked proof, and the platform holds no stochastic Nash game, proximal best-response map or randomized best-response scheme. A formal proof checks every constant of (34), including the interplay of the random inexactness ηβi,k+1\eta^{\beta_{i,k}+1}ηβi,k​+1 with the random number of steps ji,kj_{i,k}ji,k​. The paper does not prove (5): it adapts it from Facchinei–Pang 2009. A formal proof of (5) closes that gap.

Difficulty

The conditional-expectation bookkeeping is where a naive argument fails. The accuracy αi,k\alpha_{i,k}αi,k​ and the step count ji,kj_{i,k}ji,k​ are random, being functions of the past coins. The coin χi,k\chi_{i,k}χi,k​ must be independent of both the past and the samples the player uses in round kkk. The descent step (A.4) multiplies the coin with the inexactness error, and its factorization uses exactly this joint independence. Bounding the expected work requires the moment generating identities (B.3) and (36) of a binomial count, with two different constants η~\tilde\etaη~​ (through pmin⁡p_{\min}pmin​) and η~0\tilde\eta_0η~​0​ (through pmax⁡p_{\max}pmax​). Merging them gives a false bound. Lemma 6 is a stochastic approximation estimate conditional on Fk\mathcal F_kFk​, at a random, Fk\mathcal F_kFk​-measurable centre x^i(xk)\widehat x_i(x_k)xi​(xk​). Applying the unconditional O(1/t)O(1/t)O(1/t) bound for strongly convex SGD pointwise is not enough. On the deterministic side, (5) needs a mean-value argument along a segment in the product space, using the mixed Hessian blocks.

Formalization scope

Players are Fin N and player iii's space is EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin (n i)). Costs are functions of the whole profile. The Euclidean norm of the vector of block norms and the weighted norm ∥⋅∥P\|\cdot\|_P∥⋅∥P​ are written out explicitly, since Lean's norm on the product type is the sup norm. ∥Γ∥\|\Gamma\|∥Γ∥ is the operator norm on Euclidean RN\mathbb R^NRN. ζi,min⁡\zeta_{i,\min}ζi,min​ is an infimum of Rayleigh quotients. The proximal best response is any map satisfying the argmin property on XXX. ΠXi\Pi_{X_i}ΠXi​​ is any map satisfying the published SpectralProjGrad.Shared.IsProjOnto. Randomness lives on a probability space with a filtration (Fk)(\mathcal F_k)(Fk​), and conditional expectations are Mathlib's condExp.

Statement repairs, all recorded in the items' Formalization Notes:

  • Starting point. x0x_0x0​ is deterministic, with ∥xi,0−xi∗∥≤C\|x_{i,0} - x_i^*\| \le C∥xi,0​−xi∗​∥≤C. The proof's bound ∥x0−x∗∥P≤C(∑ipi−1)1/2\|x_0 - x^*\|_P \le C(\sum_i p_i^{-1})^{1/2}∥x0​−x∗∥P​≤C(∑i​pi−1​)1/2 fails for a random start with only a first-moment bound.
  • Regularity. fif_ifi​ is C2C^2C2 jointly in the profile on a neighbourhood of XXX, which the mixed blocks of (4) require.
  • Independence. Assumption 3 is read as χi,k\chi_{i,k}χi,k​ independent of Fk\mathcal F_kFk​ together with player iii's round-kkk samples (or candidate), as step (A.4) needs.
  • Sampling. Samples are drawn for every player at every round and used only when χi,k=1\chi_{i,k} = 1χi,k​=1; in law this is the paper's scheme.
  • Range of ϵ~\tilde\epsilonϵ~. ϵ~<1\tilde\epsilon < 1ϵ~<1 is assumed.
  • Integrability. Every expectation hypothesis carries an integrability condition.
  • DDD. DDD reads 1/ln⁡((q/c)e)1/\ln((q/c)^e)1/ln((q/c)e) as 1/(eln⁡(q/c))1/(e\ln(q/c))1/(eln(q/c)).
  • Excluded. Statement (35), the case η=a\eta = aη=a, is not formalized.

A formalization in which the coins are almost surely 111 is the synchronous scheme, not this one. Coins and samples here are genuinely random with the stated laws and independence, and the expectation bounding the work is taken over both.

Reusable infrastructure includes the conditional O(1/t)O(1/t)O(1/t) bound for projected SGD on strongly convex problems (Lemma 6), the binomial moment identities (B.3)/(36), and Lemma 2 and (30). Contributions of intermediate lemmas, such as (A.4)–(A.5), (B.2) and the measurability of the iterates, are welcome as separate theorems.

Selected references

  • J. Lei, U. V. Shanbhag, J.-S. Pang, S. Sen, On Synchronous, Asynchronous, and Randomized Best-Response Schemes for Stochastic Nash Games, arXiv:1704.04578v2, 2018 (Mathematics of Operations Research, 2020). https://arxiv.org/abs/1704.04578v2
  • F. Facchinei, J.-S. Pang, Nash equilibria: the variational approach, in Convex Optimization in Signal Processing and Communications, Cambridge University Press, 2009. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511804458.013
  • Y. Nesterov, Efficiency of coordinate descent methods on huge-scale optimization problems, SIAM Journal on Optimization 22(2), 2012. https://doi.org/10.1137/100802001
  • P. Richtárik, M. Takáč, Iteration complexity of randomized block-coordinate descent methods for minimizing a composite function, Mathematical Programming 144, 2014. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10107-012-0614-z
  • H. Robbins, S. Monro, A stochastic approximation method, Annals of Mathematical Statistics 22, 1951. https://doi.org/10.1214/aoms/1177729586
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