On a Problem of Optimal Transport Under Marginal Martingale Constraints 8: If Affine Lines Meet h′ in at Most k Points, Optimal Plans Split Each Non-Atom Into at Most k PointsResearch Paper
Motivation
Martingale optimal transport asks for the cheapest way to couple two given laws and of a price at two dates under the constraint that the coupling is a martingale: the conditional mean of the later price given the earlier one equals the earlier one. It is the model-independent pricing problem of mathematical finance: given the marginal laws implied by vanilla option prices, the extreme values of over all martingale couplings bound the price of the exotic payoff (Beiglböck, Henry-Labordère, Penkner 2013; Galichon, Henry-Labordère, Touzi 2014). In the classical (non-martingale) transport problem, the shape of the cost determines the shape of the optimal coupling: for strictly convex costs of on the line the optimizer is a monotone map. The question this mission addresses is the martingale analogue: how much can an optimal martingale coupling split a single starting point, as a function of the cost?
Beiglböck and Juillet (arXiv:1208.1509, Ann. Probab. 2016) introduced the variational lemma for this problem and used it to prove, among other results, that the left-curtain coupling is optimal for a family of costs and that, for costs , the number of points into which an optimal plan sends a non-atom of is bounded by a geometric property of alone (their Theorem 7.1). This mission formalizes that bound.
Setting
All measures are Borel measures on or . A martingale transport plan between probability measures on is a measure on with marginals and such that for every bounded Borel ; equivalently, the disintegration of along its first coordinate satisfies for -almost every . The set of such plans is ; it is nonempty exactly when and are in convex order, , meaning for every convex .
A cost is a function . It satisfies the sufficient integrability condition if for some , ; then is well defined for every plan. A plan is optimal if for every .
A competitor of a finitely supported measure on is a measure with the same two marginals and the same conditional barycentres . For a set , is its fibre over .
This mission concerns costs of the form with twice continuously differentiable, and the hypothesis that affine functions meet in at most points: for all , . For instance satisfies it with .
Formalization targets
Goal: Theorem 7.1 (p. 38)
Under the hypotheses above, with an optimal martingale plan of finite cost, there is a disintegration of such that for every
and if has no atoms, holds -almost surely for every disintegration of .
Milestones
- Lemma 1.11 (variational lemma, p. 8): an optimal plan of finite cost is concentrated on a Borel set such that no finitely supported with has a strictly cheaper competitor.
- Lemma 3.2 (p. 19): if uncountably many fibres have at least points, some is a limit of such configurations from the right and from the left.
- An interior point off the chord (proof of Theorem 7.1, p. 39): for , some interior has off the chord of through .
- The local sign (p. 39): near such , the cost difference (17) − (18) of a three-point rerouting is nonzero with sign fixed by .
- Countably many exceptional points (pp. 38–39): on such a , only countably many continuity points of have .
Significance
The result itself. Theorem 7.1 converts a one-dimensional condition on into a sparsity statement for every optimal martingale coupling: non-atoms of are sent to at most points. For this gives at most three points, and Section 7.3 of the paper gives an example with continuous where the optimizer splits into more than two points, so for this cost the bound cannot be lowered to two. For costs where is strictly convex (so ), it gives the two-point structure also enjoyed by the left-curtain coupling, which is optimal for those costs (Theorem 1.9). Such support bounds are what make the optimizers computable and the corresponding robust price bounds explicit.
Formalizing it. The theorem is proved in the paper; to our knowledge none of it is formalized. A formal proof requires machine-checked versions of the variational lemma (itself resting on a duality theorem of Kellerer type), the countability argument of Lemma 3.2, and the real-analysis estimate behind the three-point rerouting. Each of these is reusable: Lemma 1.11 drives every structural result of the paper, and Lemma 3.2 is used again for the left-monotonicity theorems.
Difficulty
The natural first attempt is to argue pointwise: if a fibre has points, reroute mass within that fibre to lower the cost. This fails, because a competitor must preserve the barycentre of each fibre, and within a single fibre no rerouting both preserves the barycentre and the marginals. Any improvement must move mass between two different starting points and , and this requires the two fibres to be close to each other and arranged consistently, which a single fibre cannot guarantee. Producing such pairs of fibres needs uncountably many exceptional points (Lemma 3.2) and the set of the variational lemma, whose existence is the deep part (it rests on a duality theorem for measures with given marginals). A second difficulty is that the conclusion is required at every non-atom , not only almost everywhere, so the exceptional set must be controlled exactly.
Formalization scope
Lean represents measures with Mathlib's Measure ℝ and Measure (ℝ × ℝ). is encoded through the test-function characterization for bounded Borel ; costs are extended-real integrals (the published ModelRiskOT.Duality.extIntegral); competitors of a finitely supported are encoded through the same test-function device. A disintegration is a Markov kernel with , and is written as " is concentrated on a set of at most points", which is equivalent for probability measures on . Cardinalities take values in ; is deriv h.
Standing and added hypotheses of the goal: are probability measures in convex order; "optimal transport plan" means optimal martingale plan, as throughout Section 7; and, because the proof starts from Lemma 1.11, the hypotheses of that lemma are added: the sufficient integrability condition for and finite cost of . "Continuous " is for every .
The conclusion is not trivialized: the first part holds for every with a single chosen kernel, not almost everywhere, and the second part quantifies over all kernels, not one. The hypotheses are jointly satisfiable (for example , , ).
A complete development needs disintegration of measures on (available in Mathlib as condKernel), the variational lemma with its duality ingredient, and elementary real analysis. Contributions to the variational lemma are reusable across the whole series of missions on this paper.
Selected references
- M. Beiglböck, N. Juillet, On a problem of optimal transport under marginal martingale constraints, Ann. Probab. 44(1), 42–106, 2016. arXiv:1208.1509
- M. Beiglböck, P. Henry-Labordère, F. Penkner, Model-independent bounds for option prices — a mass transport approach, Finance Stoch. 17, 477–501, 2013. doi:10.1007/s00780-013-0205-8
- A. Galichon, P. Henry-Labordère, N. Touzi, A stochastic control approach to no-arbitrage bounds given marginals, with an application to lookback options, Ann. Appl. Probab. 24(1), 312–336, 2014. doi:10.1214/13-AAP925
- M. Beiglböck, M. Goldstern, G. Maresch, W. Schachermayer, Optimal and better transport plans, J. Funct. Anal. 256(6), 1907–1927, 2009. doi:10.1016/j.jfa.2009.01.013