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The OR Formalization Drive

Help us formalize the operations research literature in Lean.

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Operations ResearchOptimizationProbability+1·Captain: mikedeng1

Mean-Variance Hedging in Continuous Time: The Feedback Futures Strategy Φ(G*) Minimizes the Expected Squared Deviation of Terminal Wealth from Any Target LevelResearch Paper

Motivation

A firm that will receive or deliver a quantity of a commodity, currency or security at a future date carries price risk until that date. When the asset itself cannot be traded in the meantime, the standard instrument for reducing that risk is a futures contract on a correlated asset: the firm takes a position in futures and adjusts it over time, and the gains or losses of the futures position offset part of the movement of its commitment. Choosing that position is the hedging problem. The classical answer, the minimum-variance hedge ratio, is a static one-period rule. Duffie and Richardson (Ann. Appl. Probab. 1991) solved the dynamic version in continuous time with a quadratic criterion: minimize the expected squared deviation of terminal wealth from a target. Their explicit feedback solution became a reference point for the later literature on mean-variance hedging in incomplete markets (Schweizer, Gouriéroux–Laurent–Pham, and others), where the same quadratic criterion is studied under general semimartingale prices.

Setting

Fix a horizon T>0T>0T>0 and a probability space (Ω,F,P)(\Omega,\mathcal F,P)(Ω,F,P) carrying a two-dimensional standard Brownian motion (B,ε)(B,\varepsilon)(B,ε) with its filtration F\mathbb FF. Let μ,σ,m,v,ρ\mu,\sigma,m,v,\rhoμ,σ,m,v,ρ be bounded measurable functions on [0,T][0,T][0,T], with ∣v∣|v|∣v∣ bounded away from zero and ρt∈[−1,1]\rho_t\in[-1,1]ρt​∈[−1,1]. The Brownian motion ξt=∫0tρs dBs+∫0t1−ρs2 dεs\xi_t=\int_0^t\rho_s\,dB_s+\int_0^t\sqrt{1-\rho_s^2}\,d\varepsilon_sξt​=∫0t​ρs​dBs​+∫0t​1−ρs2​​dεs​ has instantaneous correlation ρ\rhoρ with BBB. The committed asset SSS and the futures price FFF follow

dSt=μtSt dt+σtSt dBt,dFt=mtFt dt+vtFt dξt,S0,F0>0.dS_t=\mu_tS_t\,dt+\sigma_tS_t\,dB_t,\qquad dF_t=m_tF_t\,dt+v_tF_t\,d\xi_t,\qquad S_0,F_0>0.dSt​=μt​St​dt+σt​St​dBt​,dFt​=mt​Ft​dt+vt​Ft​dξt​,S0​,F0​>0.

The hedger is committed to kkk units of SSS at time TTT. A trading strategy is a progressively measurable process θ\thetaθ (the futures position) with E∫0Tθt2Ft2 dt<∞E\int_0^T\theta_t^2F_t^2\,dt<\inftyE∫0T​θt2​Ft2​dt<∞; Θ\ThetaΘ denotes the set of them. Its futures gain is the stochastic integral G(θ)t=∫0tθs dFsG(\theta)_t=\int_0^t\theta_s\,dF_sG(θ)t​=∫0t​θs​dFs​, and the terminal wealth is W(θ)=kST+G(θ)TW(\theta)=kS_T+G(\theta)_TW(θ)=kST​+G(θ)T​. Given a target level L∈RL\in\mathbb RL∈R, problem (3) is

min⁡θ∈ΘE[(W(θ)−L)2].\min_{\theta\in\Theta}E\big[(W(\theta)-L)^2\big].θ∈Θmin​E[(W(θ)−L)2].

With γt=mtσtρt/vt−μt\gamma_t=m_t\sigma_t\rho_t/v_t-\mu_tγt​=mt​σt​ρt​/vt​−μt​, the tracking process is Zt=kexp⁡(−∫tTγs ds)StZ_t=k\exp(-\int_t^T\gamma_s\,ds)S_tZt​=kexp(−∫tT​γs​ds)St​, so that ZT=kSTZ_T=kS_TZT​=kST​, and the feedback map is

Φ(Gt∗)=1Ft[mtvt2(L−Zt−Gt∗)−σtρtvtZt],\Phi(G^*_t)=\frac1{F_t}\Big[\frac{m_t}{v_t^2}(L-Z_t-G^*_t)-\frac{\sigma_t\rho_t}{v_t}Z_t\Big],Φ(Gt∗​)=Ft​1​[vt2​mt​​(L−Zt​−Gt∗​)−vt​σt​ρt​​Zt​],

where G∗G^*G∗ solves dGt∗=Φ(Gt∗) dFtdG^*_t=\Phi(G^*_t)\,dF_tdGt∗​=Φ(Gt∗​)dFt​, G0∗=0G^*_0=0G0∗​=0. The strategy φ=Φ(G∗)\varphi=\Phi(G^*)φ=Φ(G∗) depends only on the gains realized so far and the current price StS_tSt​.

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 1

φt=Φ(Gt∗)  solves  min⁡θ∈ΘE[(kST+G(θ)T−L)2]\varphi_t=\Phi(G^*_t)\ \text{ solves }\ \min_{\theta\in\Theta}E\big[(kS_T+G(\theta)_T-L)^2\big]φt​=Φ(Gt∗​)  solves  θ∈Θmin​E[(kST​+G(θ)T​−L)2]

for every commitment kkk, every target LLL and every solution G∗G^*G∗ of (10). No constant is hard-coded: the statement is the paper's for arbitrary coefficients satisfying the standing hypotheses.

Milestones

  1. Lemma 1: φ∈Θ\varphi\in\Thetaφ∈Θ is optimal iff E[(L−kST−G(φ)T) G(θ)T]=0E[(L-kS_T-G(\varphi)_T)\,G(\theta)_T]=0E[(L−kST​−G(φ)T​)G(θ)T​]=0 for every θ∈Θ\theta\in\Thetaθ∈Θ.
  2. Existence (§3.3): equation (10) has a solution with Gt∗∈L2(P)G^*_t\in L^2(P)Gt∗​∈L2(P).
  3. Itô dynamics of ZZZ: dZt=(γt+μt)Zt dt+σtZt dBtdZ_t=(\gamma_t+\mu_t)Z_t\,dt+\sigma_tZ_t\,dB_tdZt​=(γt​+μt​)Zt​dt+σt​Zt​dBt​.
  4. Moment equations for E(ZtGt)E(Z_tG_t)E(Zt​Gt​), E(Gt∗Gt)E(G^*_tG_t)E(Gt∗​Gt​) and E(Gt)E(G_t)E(Gt​), with G=G(θ)G=G(\theta)G=G(θ).
  5. Lemma 2: Ht=E[(L−Zt−Gt∗)G(θ)t]H_t=E[(L-Z_t-G^*_t)G(\theta)_t]Ht​=E[(L−Zt​−Gt∗​)G(θ)t​] satisfies H˙t=−(mt2/vt2)Ht\dot H_t=-(m_t^2/v_t^2)H_tH˙t​=−(mt2​/vt2​)Ht​.
  6. The solution of (13): Ht=H0exp⁡(−∫0tms2/vs2 ds)H_t=H_0\exp(-\int_0^tm_s^2/v_s^2\,ds)Ht​=H0​exp(−∫0t​ms2​/vs2​ds).

Two further items, not milestones, formalize §4: Lemma 3 (a solution of (3) is mean-variance efficient) and §4.1 (maximizing the quadratic utility E[W−cW2]E[W-cW^2]E[W−cW2], c>0c>0c>0, is problem (3) with L=1/(2c)L=1/(2c)L=1/(2c)).

Significance

Proposition 1 gives the optimal dynamic hedge in closed feedback form for every target level at once. Varying LLL traces out the whole mean-variance frontier of terminal wealth (Lemma 3), and the choice L=1/(2c)L=1/(2c)L=1/(2c) solves the quadratic-utility problem (§4.1); the minimum-variance hedge of §4.3 of the paper is obtained by optimizing over LLL. The result is also an instance of a general pattern: a quadratic hedging problem in an incomplete market reduces to an L2L^2L2 projection onto the space of attainable gains, and the projection is computed by a linear SDE.

The result is proved in the paper, in six pages. No machine-checked version of it, or of any continuous-time hedging result, exists on the platform. A formalization requires Itô's formula for products of Itô processes, the zero-mean property of square-integrable stochastic integrals, Fubini's theorem for moments, and existence for a linear SDE with an Itô-process forcing term; each of these is reusable well beyond this paper.

Difficulty

The projection step (Lemma 1) is Hilbert-space geometry and the final ODE step is Grönwall. The difficulty lies in between: the orthogonality E[(L−kST−GT∗)G(θ)T]=0E[(L-kS_T-G^*_T)G(\theta)_T]=0E[(L−kST​−GT∗​)G(θ)T​]=0 must be verified against every trading strategy θ\thetaθ, about which only E∫0Tθt2Ft2 dt<∞E\int_0^T\theta_t^2F_t^2\,dt<\inftyE∫0T​θt2​Ft2​dt<∞ is known. A computation that treats θ\thetaθ as bounded, continuous or simple does not suffice. Making the paper's moment computations rigorous requires controlling the integrability of products such as ZtθtFtZ_t\theta_tF_tZt​θt​Ft​ and Gt∗G(θ)tG^*_tG(\theta)_tGt∗​G(θ)t​, proving that the stochastic-integral parts of Itô's product rule are true martingales rather than local martingales, and differentiating expectations in time when the coefficients are only measurable, so that derivatives exist only almost everywhere.

Formalization scope

The stochastic layer is the published definition file Peng1990_SMP_Stochastic (the L2L^2L2 Itô integral and Itô processes on R≥0\mathbb R_{\ge0}R≥0​ time), imported, not redefined. The mission commits to the following conventions.

  • (B,ε)(B,\varepsilon)(B,ε) is one R2\mathbb R^2R2-valued standard Brownian motion; BBB is coordinate 0, ε\varepsilonε coordinate 1, and dξd\xidξ is expanded as ρ dB+1−ρ2 dε\rho\,dB+\sqrt{1-\rho^2}\,d\varepsilonρdB+1−ρ2​dε.
  • The filtration is the natural filtration of (B,ε)(B,\varepsilon)(B,ε), not its augmentation, and trading strategies are progressively measurable instead of predictable. Neither change alters the space of terminal gains.
  • Gains are relations: a gain process is any version of the Itô integral, and every statement quantifies over all versions.
  • The objective E[(W−L)2]E[(W-L)^2]E[(W−L)2] and variances take values in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞], so a non-square-integrable wealth cannot be optimal through a junk value 000; inner products carry explicit integrability.
  • ρt∈[−1,1]\rho_t\in[-1,1]ρt​∈[−1,1] (§3.1), not [0,1][0,1][0,1] (§2). The sign of vvv is free; only ∣v∣≥δ>0|v|\ge\delta>0∣v∣≥δ>0 is assumed.
  • "Φ(G∗)\Phi(G^*)Φ(G∗) defined by (9)–(11)" means: for every solution of (10), where a solution includes that Φ(G∗)\Phi(G^*)Φ(G∗) is a trading strategy. The paper takes this membership for granted.
  • Lemma 2 and the moment equations are stated in integral form (Ht=H0−∫0t(m2/v2)H dsH_t=H_0-\int_0^t(m^2/v^2)H\,dsHt​=H0​−∫0t​(m2/v2)Hds), which is the paper's "for almost every ttt" derivative together with absolute continuity; continuity of the coefficients is not assumed.
  • The display for dZdZdZ in the proof of Lemma 2 omits dtdtdt; the drift is (γt+μt)Zt dt(\gamma_t+\mu_t)Z_t\,dt(γt​+μt​)Zt​dt.
  • In §4.1, c>0c>0c>0 is assumed explicitly.

Proposition 1 would hold vacuously if equation (10) had no solution; the existence milestone rules this out and must be proved, not assumed. Contributions are welcome on Itô's product formula and the martingale property of Itô integrals in the Peng framework, on the existence of solutions of linear SDEs, and on the Grönwall-type uniqueness for (13).

Selected references

  • D. Duffie, H. R. Richardson, Mean-Variance Hedging in Continuous Time, The Annals of Applied Probability 1(1) (1991) 1–15. https://doi.org/10.1214/aoap/1177005978
  • S. Peng, A General Stochastic Maximum Principle for Optimal Control Problems, SIAM J. Control Optim. 28(4) (1990) 966–979. https://doi.org/10.1137/0328054
  • P. Protter, Stochastic Integration and Differential Equations, Springer, 1990. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-662-02619-9
  • D. G. Luenberger, Optimization by Vector Space Methods, Wiley, 1969.
  • M. Schweizer, Mean-Variance Hedging for General Claims, The Annals of Applied Probability 2(1) (1992) 171–179. https://doi.org/10.1214/aoap/1177005776
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Operations ResearchProbabilityStochastic Systems·Captain: mikedeng1

Reflected Brownian Motion on an Orthant: The Skorokhod Construction Yields an Adapted, Almost Surely Unique, Time-Homogeneous Markov ProcessResearch Paper

Motivation

Reflected Brownian motion on the orthant is the diffusion that arises as the heavy-traffic limit of open networks of queues. In a KKK-station network the scaled queue-length vector lives in the nonnegative orthant R+K\mathbb R^K_+R+K​; in the interior it moves like a Brownian motion, and when a station empties the process is pushed back into the orthant in a direction determined by the routing of customers between stations. Harrison (1978) obtained such a limit for two queues in tandem, and Reiman (Open Queueing Networks in Heavy Traffic, Math. Oper. Res. 9 (1984)) showed that general KKK-station open networks lead exactly to the class of processes studied here.

Classical constructions of reflected diffusions (Stroock and Varadhan 1971, Watanabe 1971) require a smooth boundary and a reflection direction varying continuously on it. The orthant has corners and the reflection direction jumps between faces, so those results do not apply. Harrison and Reiman (Reflected Brownian Motion on an Orthant, Ann. Probab. 9 (1981)) construct the process pathwise, following Skorokhod's one-dimensional approach, and derive its Markov property from the construction. The process has since become the standard object in the diffusion approximation of queueing networks.

Setting

Fix a positive integer KKK. Vectors in RK\mathbb R^KRK are row vectors, indexed by j=1,…,Kj=1,\dots,Kj=1,…,K. Let AAA be a K×KK\times KK×K covariance matrix (symmetric, nonnegative definite), b∈RKb\in\mathbb R^Kb∈RK a drift vector, and Q=(qij)Q=(q_{ij})Q=(qij​) a nonnegative K×KK\times KK×K matrix with zeros on the diagonal and spectral radius strictly less than one. S=R+KS=\mathbb R^K_+S=R+K​ is the nonnegative orthant.

Let CCC be the space of continuous paths x:[0,∞)→RKx:[0,\infty)\to\mathbb R^Kx:[0,∞)→RK with the topology of uniform convergence on compact intervals, and CSC_SCS​ the paths with x(0)∈Sx(0)\in Sx(0)∈S. For x∈CSx\in C_Sx∈CS​, the Skorokhod problem asks for y,z∈Cy,z\in Cy,z∈C with, for every jjj,

zj(t)=xj(t)+yj(t)−∑i=1Kqij yi(t),zj(t)≥0,t≥0,(5–6)z_j(t)=x_j(t)+y_j(t)-\sum_{i=1}^K q_{ij}\,y_i(t),\qquad z_j(t)\ge 0,\qquad t\ge0, \tag{5–6}zj​(t)=xj​(t)+yj​(t)−i=1∑K​qij​yi​(t),zj​(t)≥0,t≥0,(5–6)

yjy_jyj​ nondecreasing with yj(0)=0y_j(0)=0yj​(0)=0 (7), and yjy_jyj​ increasing only at times ttt where zj(t)=0z_j(t)=0zj​(t)=0 (8). In matrix form, z=x+y(I−Q)z=x+y(I-Q)z=x+y(I−Q). Theorem 1 of the paper shows there is exactly one such pair, written y=ψ(x)y=\psi(x)y=ψ(x), z=ϕ(x)z=\phi(x)z=ϕ(x).

The process is obtained by feeding a Brownian path into this map. On a probability space (Ω,F,P)(\Omega,\mathcal F,P)(Ω,F,P) let XXX be a KKK-dimensional Brownian motion with covariance matrix AAA, drift bbb and X(0)∈SX(0)\in SX(0)∈S almost surely, with X(0)X(0)X(0) independent of the increments of XXX. Let Ft=F(X(s);0≤s≤t)\mathcal F_t=\mathcal F(X(s);0\le s\le t)Ft​=F(X(s);0≤s≤t). Set Y=ψ(X)Y=\psi(X)Y=ψ(X) and Z=ϕ(X)Z=\phi(X)Z=ϕ(X) where X∈CSX\in C_SX∈CS​, and Y=Z=0Y=Z=0Y=Z=0 on the exceptional null set. ZZZ is reflected Brownian motion on SSS with reflection matrix I−QI-QI−Q.

Formalization targets

Goal: Corollary 1

There is a family (κt)(\kappa_t)(κt​) of Markov transition kernels on RK\mathbb R^KRK, depending only on (Q,A,b)(Q,A,b)(Q,A,b), such that for every such XXX, YYY, ZZZ:

(a)Y(t), Z(t) are Ft-measurable, t≥0;\text{(a)}\quad Y(t),\ Z(t)\ \text{are } \mathcal F_t\text{-measurable},\ t\ge0;(a)Y(t), Z(t) are Ft​-measurable, t≥0; (b)(Y,Z) satisfies (1)–(4) a.s., and any pair satisfying (1)–(4) a.s. equals (Y,Z) a.s.;\text{(b)}\quad (Y,Z)\ \text{satisfies (1)–(4) a.s., and any pair satisfying (1)–(4) a.s. equals } (Y,Z) \text{ a.s.};(b)(Y,Z) satisfies (1)–(4) a.s., and any pair satisfying (1)–(4) a.s. equals (Y,Z) a.s.; (c)P[Z(s+t)∈B∣Fs]=κt(Z(s),B) a.s.,s,t≥0, B Borel.\text{(c)}\quad P\big[Z(s+t)\in B \mid \mathcal F_s\big]=\kappa_t\big(Z(s),B\big)\ \text{a.s.},\qquad s,t\ge0,\ B \text{ Borel}.(c)P[Z(s+t)∈B∣Fs​]=κt​(Z(s),B) a.s.,s,t≥0, B Borel.

Here (1)–(4) are (5)–(8) for the paths of XXX, YYY, ZZZ. The kernel is chosen before the probability space and the initial law, which is what "stationary transition probabilities" means.

Milestones

The milestones follow the proof of Theorem 1 on pp. 304–305:

  1. a positive diagonal Λ\LambdaΛ with ∥Λ−1QΛ∥<1\|\Lambda^{-1}Q\Lambda\|<1∥Λ−1QΛ∥<1 (Veinott scaling);
  2. (5)–(8) are invariant under (Q,x,y,z)↦(Λ−1QΛ,xΛ,yΛ,zΛ)(Q,x,y,z)\mapsto(\Lambda^{-1}Q\Lambda,x\Lambda,y\Lambda,z\Lambda)(Q,x,y,z)↦(Λ−1QΛ,xΛ,yΛ,zΛ);
  3. the key observation that (5)–(8) are equivalent to y∈C0y\in C_0y∈C0​, the fixed-point equation y=π(y)y=\pi(y)y=π(y) with π(y)(t)=sup⁡0≤s≤t[y(s)Q−x(s)]+\pi(y)(t)=\sup_{0\le s\le t}[y(s)Q-x(s)]^+π(y)(t)=sup0≤s≤t​[y(s)Q−x(s)]+, and z=x+y(I−Q)z=x+y(I-Q)z=x+y(I−Q);
  4. the contraction ∥π(y)−π(y′)∥≤α∥y−y′∥\|\pi(y)-\pi(y')\|\le\alpha\|y-y'\|∥π(y)−π(y′)∥≤α∥y−y′∥ on [0,T][0,T][0,T];
  5. convergence of the Picard iterates yn+1=π(yn)y^{n+1}=\pi(y^n)yn+1=π(yn), y0≡0y^0\equiv0y0≡0;
  6. the Lipschitz bound ∥ψ(x)−ψ(x′)∥≤∥x−x′∥/(1−α)\|\psi(x)-\psi(x')\|\le\|x-x'\|/(1-\alpha)∥ψ(x)−ψ(x′)∥≤∥x−x′∥/(1−α);
  7. Theorem 1 itself: existence and uniqueness, non-anticipation (9), continuity (10);
  8. the regeneration property (11): with x∗(t)=z(T)+x(T+t)−x(T)x^*(t)=z(T)+x(T+t)-x(T)x∗(t)=z(T)+x(T+t)−x(T), y∗(t)=y(T+t)−y(T)y^*(t)=y(T+t)-y(T)y∗(t)=y(T+t)−y(T), z∗(t)=z(T+t)z^*(t)=z(T+t)z∗(t)=z(T+t), one has y∗=ψ(x∗)y^*=\psi(x^*)y∗=ψ(x∗), z∗=ϕ(x∗)z^*=\phi(x^*)z∗=ϕ(x∗).

Milestone 7 is the platform theorem Reiman84.QueueLength.lemma_1, posed as an open target by an earlier mission (Reiman 1984 cites it as its Lemma 1). It is referenced here and not posed again.

Significance

Corollary 1 is what makes ZZZ a usable stochastic process: adaptedness and almost-sure uniqueness say ZZZ is determined by the driving Brownian motion in a non-anticipating way, and the Markov property with time-homogeneous kernels is the starting point for the change-of-variable formula of §3, for generators, for stationary distributions, and for the heavy-traffic limit theorems in which ZZZ appears as the limit. The pathwise map ϕ\phiϕ and its Lipschitz continuity are reused throughout queueing theory: the continuous-mapping argument for heavy-traffic limits rests on exactly the continuity (10) established here.

The results are classical, with complete published proofs. None of them has a machine-checked proof. Mathlib has the measure-theoretic layer (kernels, conditional expectation, independence) but no reflection maps, no construction of multidimensional Brownian motion with drift, and no Markov-process theory in continuous time. This mission provides a formal statement of the pathwise reflection theory and its probabilistic consequence on which such a development can build.

Difficulty

The pathwise part is a contraction argument, but the contraction is not in the original norm: the map y↦yQy\mapsto yQy↦yQ need not be a contraction for any standard norm when only the spectral radius of QQQ is below one. The proof first changes coordinates by a positive diagonal matrix, and the right norm must be matched to the row-vector convention. The fixed-point characterization also has to be shown equivalent to the complementarity condition (8), which is where the zero diagonal of QQQ enters.

For Corollary 1, the difficulty is measure-theoretic. Adaptedness requires measurability of a path functional with respect to the uncompleted natural filtration, which uses (9) and (10) and the fact that continuous paths are determined by countably many coordinates. The Markov property requires the regeneration identity (11) together with independence of the post-sss increments of XXX from Fs\mathcal F_sFs​, and a kernel that is jointly measurable and independent of the initial law. Conditioning on Fs\mathcal F_sFs​ alone, without identifying the future as a fixed functional of Z(s)Z(s)Z(s) and an independent Brownian motion, does not give a kernel that is the same for all sss.

Formalization scope

  • RK\mathbb R^KRK is Fin K → ℝ (paper index jjj = Lean index j−1j-1j−1), with K≥1K\ge1K≥1; row vector times matrix is Matrix.vecMul. Paths are functions ℝ → Fin K → ℝ; only times t≥0t\ge0t≥0 are constrained.
  • Spectral radius <1<1<1 is rendered as Qm→0Q^m\to0Qm→0, the rendering of Reiman84.QueueLength.lemma_1. AAA is PosSemidef.
  • (5)–(8) are the published Reiman84.QueueLength.IsReflectionPair; (8) reads "yjy_jyj​ is constant on every interval [s,t]⊆[0,∞)[s,t]\subseteq[0,\infty)[s,t]⊆[0,∞) on which zj>0z_j>0zj​>0". CSC_SCS​ is IsCPlus; uniform convergence on compacts is UocTendsto; Brownian motion from 000 with drift and covariance is IsDriftedBM.
  • The norm on C[0,T]C[0,T]C[0,T] is sup⁡0≤t≤T∥y(t)∥∞\sup_{0\le t\le T}\|y(t)\|_\inftysup0≤t≤T​∥y(t)∥∞​. The suprema in π\piπ and in the norm are real suprema, honest only for continuous paths, and every statement using them assumes continuity.
  • The paper's ∥P∥\|P\|∥P∥ is printed as the maximal row sum. Under the row-vector convention the contraction, Picard and Lipschitz steps need the maximal column sum; with the printed reading the contraction inequality is false (a nilpotent 3×33\times33×3 counterexample is recorded in those items). Veinott scaling is stated as printed; applying it to Q⊤Q^\topQ⊤ gives the column version.
  • The Brownian motion is X=X0+ξX=X_0+\xiX=X0​+ξ with ξ\xiξ a drifted Brownian motion from 000 and X0≥0X_0\ge0X0​≥0 a.s. independent of the whole process ξ\xiξ. Ft\mathcal F_tFt​ is the uncompleted σ-algebra generated by X(s)X(s)X(s), 0≤s≤t0\le s\le t0≤s≤t.
  • YYY and ZZZ enter Corollary 1 as hypotheses: a solution of (5)–(8) on {X∈CS}\{X\in C_S\}{X∈CS​}, zero elsewhere. That such processes exist is the existence part of Theorem 1, the referenced open item.
  • The kernel family is quantified before the probability space, so it cannot depend on sss, on Ω\OmegaΩ or on the law of X(0)X(0)X(0). A version of (c) with a kernel depending on these, with the completed or full σ-algebra in place of Fs\mathcal F_sFs​, or with one-dimensional marginals only, is a different and weaker statement and is ruled out.

Out of scope: Theorem 2 (the change-of-variable formula, which needs stochastic integration), the necessity of spectral radius <1<1<1, and §§3–4. Useful contributions beyond the milestones include a construction of multidimensional Brownian motion with drift in Mathlib, the Skorokhod map as a function on CSC_SCS​, and general lemmas on measurability of continuous path functionals.

Selected references

  • J. M. Harrison and M. I. Reiman, Reflected Brownian Motion on an Orthant, Annals of Probability 9(2), 302–308, 1981. https://doi.org/10.1214/aop/1176994471
  • M. I. Reiman, Open Queueing Networks in Heavy Traffic, Mathematics of Operations Research 9(3), 441–458, 1984. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.9.3.441
  • A. F. Veinott, Jr., Discrete Dynamic Programming with Sensitive Discount Optimality Criteria, Annals of Mathematical Statistics 40(5), 1635–1660, 1969. https://doi.org/10.1214/aoms/1177697379
  • A. V. Skorokhod, Stochastic Equations for Diffusion Processes in a Bounded Region, Theory of Probability and Its Applications 6(3), 264–274, 1961. https://doi.org/10.1137/1106035
  • D. W. Stroock and S. R. S. Varadhan, Diffusion Processes with Boundary Conditions, Communications on Pure and Applied Mathematics 24, 147–225, 1971. https://doi.org/10.1002/cpa.3160240206
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Convex OptimizationLinear OptimizationOperations Research+1·Captain: mikedeng1

The Ellipsoid Method and Its Consequences in Combinatorial Optimization: With a Weak Separation Oracle, the Rounded Ellipsoid Method Is ε-Optimal After N = 4n²⌈log(2R²‖c‖/(rε))⌉ StepsResearch Paper

Motivation

The ellipsoid method decides questions about a convex set K⊆RnK \subseteq \mathbb{R}^nK⊆Rn by maintaining an ellipsoid that contains the relevant part of KKK and shrinking it step by step. Introduced for convex minimization by Yudin and Nemirovskii and by Shor in the 1970s, it became famous in 1979 when Khachiyan used it to show that linear programming is solvable in polynomial time. Grötschel, Lovász and Schrijver (Combinatorica 1 (1981)) observed that the method never needs an explicit description of KKK: it only needs, for a query point yyy, either a confirmation that yyy is (nearly) in KKK or a hyperplane (nearly) separating yyy from KKK. From this they derived that optimization and separation are polynomially equivalent for convex bodies, which in turn gives polynomial algorithms for problems with exponentially many constraints: matroid intersection, submodular function minimization, and the stable set problem in perfect graphs.

The engine of all of these applications is a single quantitative statement, Theorem (2.4) of the paper: with a weak separation oracle and with all numbers rounded to a fixed number of binary digits, a prescribed number NNN of ellipsoid steps produces an ε\varepsilonε-optimal point.

Timeline. 1976–1977: Yudin–Nemirovskii and Shor, the method for convex programming. 1979: Khachiyan, polynomial-time linear programming. 1981: Gács–Lovász publish a complete proof of Khachiyan's result with the explicit rounded update; Grötschel–Lovász–Schrijver state and prove the weak-oracle version, Theorem (2.4), and its combinatorial consequences; Bland–Goldfarb–Todd survey the method (Oper. Res. 29 (1981)). 1988: the monograph of Grötschel, Lovász and Schrijver (Springer) gives the full theory of weak oracles.

Setting

All norms are Euclidean: ∥v∥=vTv\|v\| = \sqrt{v^{\mathsf T}v}∥v∥=vTv​, and for a symmetric matrix ∥A∥\|A\|∥A∥ is the largest absolute eigenvalue. S(a0,ρ)S(a_0,\rho)S(a0​,ρ) is the closed Euclidean ball of radius ρ\rhoρ about a0a_0a0​, and S(K,δ)S(K,\delta)S(K,δ) the set of points within distance δ\deltaδ of KKK.

A convex body (K,a0,r,R)(K, a_0, r, R)(K,a0​,r,R) consists of a compact convex K⊆RnK\subseteq\mathbb{R}^nK⊆Rn, n≥2n\ge 2n≥2, and 0<r≤R0<r\le R0<r≤R with

S(a0,r)⊆K⊆S(a0,R).S(a_0,r)\subseteq K\subseteq S(a_0,R).S(a0​,r)⊆K⊆S(a0​,R).

A weak separation oracle with precision δ>0\delta>0δ>0 answers a query yyy either with "y∈S(K,δ)y\in S(K,\delta)y∈S(K,δ)", or with a vector ddd, ∥d∥≥1\|d\|\ge 1∥d∥≥1, such that dTx≤dTy+δd^{\mathsf T}x\le d^{\mathsf T}y+\deltadTx≤dTy+δ for all x∈Kx\in Kx∈K.

Given an objective ccc and an accuracy ε>0\varepsilon>0ε>0 (with ε<r\varepsilon<rε<r and ∥c∥≥1\|c\|\ge 1∥c∥≥1), set

N=4n2⌈log⁡2R2∥c∥rε⌉,δ=R2 4−N300n,p=5N.N = 4n^2\left\lceil \log\frac{2R^2\|c\|}{r\varepsilon}\right\rceil,\qquad \delta = \frac{R^2\,4^{-N}}{300n},\qquad p = 5N .N=4n2⌈logrε2R2∥c∥​⌉,δ=300nR24−N​,p=5N.

Start from x0=a0x_0=a_0x0​=a0​, A0=R2IA_0=R^2IA0​=R2I. At step kkk query the oracle at xkx_kxk​. If it answers "feasible", kkk is a feasible index and a=ca=ca=c; otherwise a=−da=-da=−d. Put bk=Aka/aTAkab_k = A_ka/\sqrt{a^{\mathsf T}A_ka}bk​=Ak​a/aTAk​a​ and

xk∗=xk+1n+1bk,Ak∗=2n2+32n2(Ak−2n+1bkbkT),x_k^* = x_k+\frac{1}{n+1}b_k,\qquad A_k^* = \frac{2n^2+3}{2n^2}\Bigl(A_k-\frac{2}{n+1}b_kb_k^{\mathsf T}\Bigr),xk∗​=xk​+n+11​bk​,Ak∗​=2n22n2+3​(Ak​−n+12​bk​bkT​),

and obtain xk+1x_{k+1}xk+1​, Ak+1A_{k+1}Ak+1​ by rounding xk∗x_k^*xk∗​, Ak∗A_k^*Ak∗​ to ppp binary digits, keeping Ak+1A_{k+1}Ak+1​ symmetric. The ellipsoids are Ek={x:(x−xk)TAk−1(x−xk)≤1}E_k=\{x : (x-x_k)^{\mathsf T}A_k^{-1}(x-x_k)\le 1\}Ek​={x:(x−xk​)TAk−1​(x−xk​)≤1}, and KkK_kKk​ is the set of points of KKK whose objective value is at least that of every feasible centre found before step kkk.

In Lean, IsRoundedRun K c a₀ R δ p N x A feas a d records exactly these conditions, Kk is KkK_kKk​, and EkE_kEk​ is the published LinearOptimization.ellipsoid (x k) (A k).

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem (2.4)

If j<Nj<Nj<N is a feasible index whose centre is best among the feasible centres, cTxj=max⁡{cTxk:k<N feasible}c^{\mathsf T}x_j=\max\{c^{\mathsf T}x_k : k<N \text{ feasible}\}cTxj​=max{cTxk​:k<N feasible}, then

cTxj ≥ max⁡x∈KcTx−ε.c^{\mathsf T}x_j \ \ge\ \max_{x\in K} c^{\mathsf T}x - \varepsilon .cTxj​ ≥ x∈Kmax​cTx−ε.

The statement is for every run, i.e. for every sequence of valid oracle answers and every admissible rounding.

Milestones, in attack order

  1. (13): the explicit inverse (Ak∗)−1=2n22n2+3(Ak−1+2n−1aaTaTAka)(A_k^*)^{-1}=\frac{2n^2}{2n^2+3}\bigl(A_k^{-1}+\frac{2}{n-1}\frac{aa^{\mathsf T}}{a^{\mathsf T}A_ka}\bigr)(Ak∗​)−1=2n2+32n2​(Ak−1​+n−12​aTAk​aaaT​), and Ak∗≻0A_k^*\succ 0Ak∗​≻0.
  2. Lemma (2.1): A0,…,ANA_0,\dots,A_NA0​,…,AN​ are positive definite, ∥xk∥≤∥a0∥+R2k\|x_k\|\le\|a_0\|+R2^k∥xk​∥≤∥a0​∥+R2k, ∥Ak∥≤R22k\|A_k\|\le R^22^k∥Ak​∥≤R22k, ∥Ak−1∥≤R−24k\|A_k^{-1}\|\le R^{-2}4^k∥Ak−1​∥≤R−24k.
  3. Lemma (2.2): μ(Ek+1)<e−1/(5n)μ(Ek)\mu(E_{k+1}) < e^{-1/(5n)}\mu(E_k)μ(Ek+1​)<e−1/(5n)μ(Ek​).
  4. Lemma (2.3): Kk⊆EkK_k\subseteq E_kKk​⊆Ek​ for k=0,…,Nk=0,\dots,Nk=0,…,N.
  5. (32): μ(KN)≤μ(EN)≤e−N/(4n)μ(E0)=e−N/(4n)RnVn\mu(K_N)\le\mu(E_N)\le e^{-N/(4n)}\mu(E_0)=e^{-N/(4n)}R^nV_nμ(KN​)≤μ(EN​)≤e−N/(4n)μ(E0​)=e−N/(4n)RnVn​.
  6. (34): the piece above the level ttt of the cone with base the rrr-disc through x0x_0x0​ orthogonal to ccc and apex y∈Ky\in Ky∈K has volume Vn−1rn−1(ζ−cTx0)n∥c∥(ζ−tζ−cTx0)n\frac{V_{n-1}r^{n-1}(\zeta-c^{\mathsf T}x_0)}{n\|c\|}\bigl(\frac{\zeta-t}{\zeta-c^{\mathsf T}x_0}\bigr)^nn∥c∥Vn−1​rn−1(ζ−cTx0​)​(ζ−cTx0​ζ−t​)n, which bounds μ({z∈K:cTz≥t})\mu(\{z\in K: c^{\mathsf T}z\ge t\})μ({z∈K:cTz≥t}) from below.

Significance

Theorem (2.4) turns any weak separation procedure for a convex body into a weak optimization procedure, with a number of oracle calls and a numerical precision polynomial in nnn, log⁡R\log RlogR, log⁡(1/r)\log(1/r)log(1/r), log⁡∥c∥\log\|c\|log∥c∥ and log⁡(1/ε)\log(1/\varepsilon)log(1/ε). This is the "only if" half of the paper's Theorem (3.1), and through it the source of the polynomial algorithms of Chapters 4–6 of the paper and of the 1988 monograph. Its rounding analysis is what makes the method an algorithm on finite-precision numbers rather than an argument about exact real arithmetic.

The result is proved, and has been for over forty years. What this mission adds is a machine-checked proof of the rounded, weak-oracle version, including the error analysis that the paper compresses into "rounding errors can be estimated similarly". Related items already on the platform formalize exact-arithmetic ellipsoid methods: Bertsimas–Tsitsiklis's central-cut method for polyhedra (LinearOptimization.ellipsoid_method_correct, proved) and Bubeck's version for convex minimization with a first-order oracle (arXiv:1405.4980). Neither has a weak oracle, the inflated factor (2n2+3)/(2n2)(2n^2+3)/(2n^2)(2n2+3)/(2n2), or rounding.

Difficulty

For the exact update with factor n2/(n2−1)n^2/(n^2-1)n2/(n2−1) and an exact separating hyperplane through the centre, containment and volume decrease are a classical computation. Here three perturbations interact. The cut is shifted by δ\deltaδ, so the retained half-ellipsoid is slightly larger than a half. The rounded matrix differs from Ak∗A_k^*Ak∗​ by up to n2−pn2^{-p}n2−p in norm, which could destroy positive definiteness if the smallest eigenvalue were not controlled from below, and Lemma (2.1)'s bound R24−kR^24^{-k}R24−k is what controls it. The containment Kk+1⊆Ek+1K_{k+1}\subseteq E_{k+1}Kk+1​⊆Ek+1​ must absorb both errors, and it is the inflation factor (2n2+3)/(2n2)(2n^2+3)/(2n^2)(2n2+3)/(2n2), chosen larger than the optimal one, that leaves room. The paper bounds the remainder term in (29) only by "similar methods"; making that bound explicit is the bulk of the work. The final step also needs the volume rate e−N/(4n)e^{-N/(4n)}e−N/(4n) in (32), which is sharper than iterating Lemma (2.2) and requires the exact per-step volume ratio of the inflated update.

Formalization scope

Rn\mathbb{R}^nRn is Fin n → ℝ with Lebesgue measure. Since Lean's norm on Fin n → ℝ is the sup norm, the Euclidean norm is written out (euclNorm), and the bounds ∥Ak∥≤R22k\|A_k\|\le R^22^k∥Ak​∥≤R22k, ∥Ak−1∥≤R−24k\|A_k^{-1}\|\le R^{-2}4^k∥Ak−1​∥≤R−24k are stated as quadratic-form (eigenvalue) bounds. NNN uses the natural logarithm and the integer ceiling.

The runs generalize the page in three ways, each of which makes the theorems stronger: the oracle's answers are any answers valid for its specification; rounding is any symmetric value within 2−p2^{-p}2−p entrywise; and data are real rather than rational.

The page's standing assumptions ε<r\varepsilon<rε<r, ∥c∥≥1\|c\|\ge1∥c∥≥1, n≥2n\ge2n≥2 (p. 173) are hypotheses. Two hypotheses are added, because the page's NNN, δ\deltaδ and ppp are absolute numbers and the claims fail at extreme scales:

  • R≥1R\ge 1R≥1 (Lemmas (2.1)–(2.3), (32), Theorem (2.4)): for R=r=2−1000R=r=2^{-1000}R=r=2−1000, ε=r/2\varepsilon=r/2ε=r/2, n=2n=2n=2, rounding can make A1=0A_1=0A1​=0.
  • ε≤1\varepsilon\le1ε≤1 (Lemma (2.3), (32), Theorem (2.4)): for R=r=1013R=r=10^{13}R=r=1013, ε=0.99r\varepsilon=0.99rε=0.99r, n=2n=2n=2, δ>2r\delta>2rδ>2r, and a valid oracle can cut away all of KKK.

Neither is needed in (13) or (34).

A run predicate without the oracle clause would make Lemma (2.3) false, and one with exact equality instead of rounding would state a weaker theorem; the goal quantifies over every run, never over some run. Positive definiteness of the AkA_kAk​ is a consequence (Lemma (2.1)), not a hypothesis: since Lean's inverse of a singular matrix is 000, assuming it would hide the lemma's content.

Out of scope: the paper's polynomial-time claims (Theorem (3.1) and its consequences), the bit length of the numbers, and the rationality of inputs, since no oracle-machine model with bit complexity exists in Mathlib or on the platform.

Reusable infrastructure: volumes of ellipsoids and of cone pieces, Sherman–Morrison-type inverses, and perturbation bounds for positive definite matrices. Contributions of these as separate lemmas are welcome.

Selected references

  • M. Grötschel, L. Lovász, A. Schrijver, The ellipsoid method and its consequences in combinatorial optimization, Combinatorica 1(2) (1981) 169–197. https://doi.org/10.1007/bf02579273
  • P. Gács, L. Lovász, Khachiyan's algorithm for linear programming, Mathematical Programming Study 14 (1981) 61–68. https://doi.org/10.1007/BFb0120921
  • L. G. Khachiyan, A polynomial algorithm in linear programming, Soviet Mathematics Doklady 20 (1979) 191–194 (English translation of the original article).
  • R. G. Bland, D. Goldfarb, M. J. Todd, The ellipsoid method: a survey, Operations Research 29(6) (1981) 1039–1091. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.29.6.1039
  • M. Grötschel, L. Lovász, A. Schrijver, Geometric Algorithms and Combinatorial Optimization, Springer, 1988. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-97881-4
  • D. Bertsimas, J. N. Tsitsiklis, Introduction to Linear Optimization, Athena Scientific, 1997, Ch. 8. Book record.
  • S. Bubeck, Convex Optimization: Algorithms and Complexity, Foundations and Trends in Machine Learning 8 (2015). https://arxiv.org/abs/1405.4980
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Graph TheoryOperations ResearchOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Approximation Schemes for the Restricted Shortest Path Problem: The Rounding Algorithm Outputs a T-Path of Length at Most (1 + ε)·OPTResearch Paper

Motivation

The restricted shortest path problem asks for a shortest route between two points of a network subject to a budget on a second additive quantity, such as travel time, cost or risk. It appears as the pricing subproblem of column generation for crew scheduling and vehicle routing, in quality-of-service routing in communication networks, and in scheduling, where Hassin's own §7 uses it for a single-machine problem. The problem is NP-hard (Garey and Johnson, 1979), so exact polynomial algorithms are not expected, and the natural question is how well it can be approximated in polynomial time.

Timeline.

  • 1966–1985. Practical exact methods and pseudopolynomial dynamic programs (Joksch 1966; Lawler 1976; Handler and Zang 1980; Aneja, Aggarwal and Nair 1983; Henig 1985).
  • 1987. Warburton gives the first fully polynomial approximation scheme (FPAS) for this problem on acyclic graphs, based on rounding and scaling (Warburton, Oper. Res. 35, 1987).
  • 1992. Hassin gives two faster FPASs: a rounding-and-scaling scheme driven by an approximate decision test (§3–§4), and a strongly polynomial scheme (§5–§6) (Hassin, Math. Oper. Res. 17, 1992).
  • 2001. Lorenz and Raz give a simpler and faster scheme built on the same test-and-search pattern (Lorenz–Raz, Oper. Res. Lett. 28, 2001).

Hassin's combination of an approximate decision test with a geometric search on the bounds is the pattern later schemes for resource-constrained path problems refine, which is why his first scheme is the subject of this mission.

Setting

A directed graph has vertex set {1,…,n}\{1,\dots,n\}{1,…,n}, n≥2n\ge 2n≥2, and edge set EEE. Following the paper, the vertices are numbered so that every edge (i,j)∈E(i,j)\in E(i,j)∈E has i<ji<ji<j; in particular the graph is acyclic. Each edge carries a positive integer length cijc_{ij}cij​ and a positive integer transition time tijt_{ij}tij​. A path p=(v0,…,vm)p=(v_0,\dots,v_m)p=(v0​,…,vm​) has length c(p)=∑rcvr−1vrc(p)=\sum_r c_{v_{r-1}v_r}c(p)=∑r​cvr−1​vr​​ and transition time t(p)=∑rtvr−1vrt(p)=\sum_r t_{v_{r-1}v_r}t(p)=∑r​tvr−1​vr​​. For a nonnegative integer TTT, a TTT-path is a path from 111 to nnn with t(p)≤Tt(p)\le Tt(p)≤T, and OPT\mathrm{OPT}OPT is the length of a shortest TTT-path.

Fix 0<ε<10<\varepsilon<10<ε<1. For a real VVV, the rounded lengths are

c~ijV=⌊cij(n−1)Vε⌋.\tilde c^V_{ij}=\Big\lfloor \frac{c_{ij}(n-1)}{V\varepsilon}\Big\rfloor .c~ijV​=⌊Vεcij​(n−1)​⌋.

Procedure TEST(V) deletes the edges with cij>Vc_{ij}>Vcij​>V and answers NO if, for some integer c<(n−1)/εc<(n-1)/\varepsilonc<(n−1)/ε, some 111–nnn path in the remaining graph has transition time at most TTT and rounded length at most ccc; otherwise it answers YES.

The Rounding Algorithm keeps bounds (LB,UB)(LB,UB)(LB,UB) on OPT. Starting from initial bounds (LB0,UB0)(LB_0,UB_0)(LB0​,UB0​), Step 1 repeats while UB>2LBUB>2LBUB>2LB: with V=(LB⋅UB)1/2V=(LB\cdot UB)^{1/2}V=(LB⋅UB)1/2 it sets LB←VLB\leftarrow VLB←V if TEST(V) = YES and UB←V(1+ε)UB\leftarrow V(1+\varepsilon)UB←V(1+ε) if TEST(V) = NO. Step 2 outputs a TTT-path that is shortest for the rounded lengths c~ijLB=⌊cij(n−1)/(εLB)⌋\tilde c^{LB}_{ij}=\lfloor c_{ij}(n-1)/(\varepsilon LB)\rfloorc~ijLB​=⌊cij​(n−1)/(εLB)⌋. The bounds after kkk passes are written (LBk,UBk)(LB_k,UB_k)(LBk​,UBk​).

Formalization targets

Goal: the approximation guarantee of the Rounding Algorithm

If LB0>0LB_0>0LB0​>0 is a lower bound on the length of every TTT-path, NNN is a stage at which UBN≤2LBNUB_N\le 2LB_NUBN​≤2LBN​, and ppp is a Step 2 output at LBNLB_NLBN​, then

c(p)≤(1+ε) c(q)for every T-path q,c(p)\le (1+\varepsilon)\,c(q)\qquad\text{for every }T\text{-path }q,c(p)≤(1+ε)c(q)for every T-path q,

that is, c(p)≤(1+ε) OPTc(p)\le(1+\varepsilon)\,\mathrm{OPT}c(p)≤(1+ε)OPT. The initial upper bound UB0UB_0UB0​ is arbitrary.

Milestones (§3–§4)

  1. Rounding error (§3, p. 38): with δ=Vε/(n−1)\delta=V\varepsilon/(n-1)δ=Vε/(n−1), 0≤cij−δc~ijV≤δ0\le c_{ij}-\delta\tilde c^V_{ij}\le\delta0≤cij​−δc~ijV​≤δ for every edge, and 0≤c(p)−δc~V(p)≤Vε0\le c(p)-\delta\tilde c^V(p)\le V\varepsilon0≤c(p)−δc~V(p)≤Vε for every path.
  2. TEST(V) = NO (§3, p. 38): some TTT-path has length <V(1+ε)<V(1+\varepsilon)<V(1+ε), so OPT<V(1+ε)\mathrm{OPT}<V(1+\varepsilon)OPT<V(1+ε).
  3. TEST(V) = YES (§3, p. 38): every TTT-path has length ≥V\ge V≥V, so OPT≥V\mathrm{OPT}\ge VOPT≥V.
  4. Bound update (§4, p. 39): along the run, LBk>0LB_k>0LBk​>0 and LBkLB_kLBk​ is a lower bound on every TTT-path; if some TTT-path has length at most UB0UB_0UB0​, some TTT-path has length at most UBkUB_kUBk​.
  5. Scaled-optimum error (§4, p. 39): a Step 2 output ppp at any LB>0LB>0LB>0 satisfies c(p)≤c(q)+εLBc(p)\le c(q)+\varepsilon LBc(p)≤c(q)+εLB for every TTT-path qqq.

Companion statements

  • Termination when (1+ε)2<2(1+\varepsilon)^2<2(1+ε)2<2: some stage NNN has UBN≤2LBNUB_N\le 2LB_NUBN​≤2LBN​; and an explicit instance with ε=9/10\varepsilon=9/10ε=9/10 on which Step 1 never stops.
  • Initial bounds (Step 0, p. 39): every 111–nnn path has length between 111 and the sum of the n−1n-1n−1 longest edge-lengths.
  • Algorithms A and B (§2, pp. 37–38): their recursions compute fj(t)f_j(t)fj​(t) and gj(c)g_j(c)gj​(c), with OPT=fn(T)=min⁡{c∣gn(c)≤T}\mathrm{OPT}=f_n(T)=\min\{c\mid g_n(c)\le T\}OPT=fn​(T)=min{c∣gn​(c)≤T}.

Significance

The guarantee makes the Rounding Algorithm a fully polynomial approximation scheme: combined with the paper's running-time analysis, a (1+ε)(1+\varepsilon)(1+ε)-approximate TTT-path is computed in time polynomial in the input size and 1/ε1/\varepsilon1/ε. The two ingredients, an approximate decision test that answers "OPT ≥V\ge V≥V" or "OPT <V(1+ε)<V(1+\varepsilon)<V(1+ε)", and a geometric search on the ratio UB/LBUB/LBUB/LB, are reused in later FPASs for constrained path, knapsack-type and scheduling problems; the milestones isolate them as separate statements.

The result has been proved since 1992 but, as far as a search of the platform and of Mathlib shows, none of it is machine-checked. This mission produces a checked version of the first scheme, stated for every stage at which the printed stopping test holds and every optimal Step 2 output. It also records, as a companion, that the printed Step 1 need not terminate when ε>2−1\varepsilon>\sqrt2-1ε>2​−1, and proves termination under (1+ε)2<2(1+\varepsilon)^2<2(1+ε)2<2.

Difficulty

The arithmetic of each step is short; the difficulty is in the combinatorial facts the page uses without proof and in the bookkeeping of a run. The rounding error of a path is at most VεV\varepsilonVε only because a 111–nnn path has at most n−1n-1n−1 edges, which follows from the numbering i<ji<ji<j and must be derived for list-encoded paths. The YES case must cover TTT-paths through edges that TEST deleted, which the rounding argument does not see. The bound update needs both bounds to stay positive so that (LB⋅UB)1/2(LB\cdot UB)^{1/2}(LB⋅UB)1/2 is a meaningful test point, an invariant of the whole run rather than of one step. A tempting shortcut, assuming that LB is a lower bound on OPT at the stopping stage, would assume milestone 4; the goal assumes it only for LB0LB_0LB0​.

Formalization scope

  • Representation. Vertices are natural numbers; an instance is a structure with nnn, a finite edge set of pairs, and length and time functions, with a well-formedness predicate: n≥2n\ge 2n≥2, every edge (i,j)(i,j)(i,j) has 1≤i<j≤n1\le i<j\le n1≤i<j≤n, and lengths and times are positive. The requirement n≥2n\ge2n≥2 is not printed: a 111–nnn path and the divisions by n−1n-1n−1 presuppose it. Paths are nonempty vertex lists.
  • Arithmetic. n−1n-1n−1 is taken in the reals; ⌊⋅⌋\lfloor\cdot\rfloor⌊⋅⌋ is the natural-number floor of a nonnegative real; (LB⋅UB)1/2(LB\cdot UB)^{1/2}(LB⋅UB)1/2 is the real square root. Bounds and ε\varepsilonε are reals, TTT is a natural number.
  • OPT. OPT is never a number in the formal statements, because it is ∞\infty∞ when no TTT-path exists. "OPT ≥V\ge V≥V" is a bound on every TTT-path, "OPT <V(1+ε)<V(1+\varepsilon)<V(1+ε)" is the existence of a TTT-path, and the goal compares the output with every TTT-path. Algorithms A and B use values in N∪{∞}\mathbb N\cup\{\infty\}N∪{∞}.
  • TEST(V) is defined by the answer the procedure reaches, not through Algorithm B's printed recursion, whose initial condition gj(0)=∞g_j(0)=\inftygj​(0)=∞ is wrong for rounded lengths 000; for n≥2n\ge2n≥2 and ε<1\varepsilon<1ε<1 the answers agree.
  • The run is the iterate of one pass of Step 1; a stopped state is a fixed point. Step 2 outputs any TTT-path optimal for the rounded lengths, without pruning edges, as printed.
  • Added hypothesis. The termination statement assumes (1+ε)2<2(1+\varepsilon)^2<2(1+ε)2<2, which the page does not state; without it the printed loop can run forever, and an explicit instance is included.
  • Not a trivialization. The goal assumes nothing about TEST's correctness, the rounding error or the lower-bound invariant along the run, and the termination companion shows that its stopping hypothesis is reachable.
  • Out of scope. The second, strongly polynomial scheme of §5–§6 is not included, because as printed its Partitioning Algorithm can report infeasibility on a feasible instance and formalizing it would require a corrected algorithm that is not the author's. All running-time claims, stated as O(⋅)O(\cdot)O(⋅) bounds under an informal operation count, are also excluded, as are the V′V'V′ variant of the test points and the scheduling application of §7.
  • Reusable parts. The list-based path layer with two additive weights, and the correctness of the pseudopolynomial recursions of Algorithms A and B, are independent of the approximation scheme. Contributions of proofs for any milestone or companion are welcome.

Selected references

  • R. Hassin, Approximation schemes for the restricted shortest path problem, Mathematics of Operations Research 17(1):36–42, 1992. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.17.1.36
  • A. Warburton, Approximation of Pareto optima in multiple-objective, shortest-path problems, Operations Research 35(1):70–79, 1987. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.35.1.70
  • D. H. Lorenz and D. Raz, A simple efficient approximation scheme for the restricted shortest path problem, Operations Research Letters 28(5):213–219, 2001. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0167-6377(01)00069-4
  • M. R. Garey and D. S. Johnson, Computers and Intractability: A Guide to the Theory of NP-Completeness, W. H. Freeman, 1979.
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Operations ResearchProbabilityStochastic Systems·Captain: mikedeng1

Shock Models and Wear Processes I: Under Poisson Shocks, Cumulative Nonnegative I.I.D. Damage up to a Fixed Threshold Gives an IHRA Life DistributionResearch Paper

Motivation

Reliability theory classifies life distributions by how they age. The IHRA class (increasing hazard rate average) is the smallest class of life distributions that contains the exponential distributions and is closed under forming coherent systems and taking limits in distribution (Birnbaum, Esary and Marshall 1966). It is therefore the natural class for the lifetime of a system built from components that wear out. A distribution belongs to it when its survival function Fˉ\bar FFˉ satisfies: [Fˉ(t)]1/t[\bar F(t)]^{1/t}[Fˉ(t)]1/t is decreasing in t>0t > 0t>0.

Esary, Marshall and Proschan (Ann. Probability 1 (1973) 627–649) asked where such ageing comes from physically. Their answer is a shock model: a device receives shocks at the epochs of a Poisson process, each shock does random damage, and the device fails when the accumulated damage exceeds its capacity. The central result of their §4, formalized in this mission, is that this model always produces an IHRA life, whatever the damage distribution. In the authors' words, "the IHRA property has been obtained … as an implication of a natural physical model. The only hypothesis imposed upon FFF is that it be the distribution of a nonnegative random variable." The paper is a standard reference of reliability theory and the source of the cumulative damage model used across maintenance and insurance applications.

Setting

Shocks arrive according to a Poisson process with rate λ>0\lambda > 0λ>0. Write Pˉk\bar P_kPˉk​ for the probability that the device survives the first kkk shocks; then 1≥Pˉ0≥Pˉ1≥⋯≥01 \ge \bar P_0 \ge \bar P_1 \ge \dots \ge 01≥Pˉ0​≥Pˉ1​≥⋯≥0 (display (2.2)). Conditioning on the number of shocks in [0,t][0, t][0,t] gives the shock survival function (2.1):

Hˉ(t)=∑k=0∞Pˉk e−λt(λt)kk!,t≥0,\bar H(t) = \sum_{k=0}^{\infty} \bar P_k\, e^{-\lambda t}\frac{(\lambda t)^k}{k!}, \qquad t \ge 0,Hˉ(t)=k=0∑∞​Pˉk​e−λtk!(λt)k​,t≥0,

with Hˉ(t)=1\bar H(t) = 1Hˉ(t)=1 for t<0t < 0t<0. The weights K(k,t)=e−λt(λt)k/k!K(k,t) = e^{-\lambda t}(\lambda t)^k/k!K(k,t)=e−λt(λt)k/k! are the Poisson probabilities.

In the cumulative damage model the iiith shock causes a damage Xi≥0X_i \ge 0Xi​≥0, the damages are independent with common distribution function FFF (so F(z)=0F(z) = 0F(z)=0 for z<0z < 0z<0), and the device survives kkk shocks when X1+⋯+Xk≤xX_1 + \dots + X_k \le xX1​+⋯+Xk​≤x, for a fixed threshold xxx. Hence (4.1)

Pˉk=F(k)(x),k=0,1,…,\bar P_k = F^{(k)}(x), \qquad k = 0, 1, \dots,Pˉk​=F(k)(x),k=0,1,…,

where F(k)F^{(k)}F(k) is the kkk-fold convolution of FFF and F(0)F^{(0)}F(0) is degenerate at 000. A distribution with survival function Fˉ\bar FFˉ is IHRA if [Fˉ(t)]1/t[\bar F(t)]^{1/t}[Fˉ(t)]1/t is decreasing in t>0t > 0t>0; throughout, "decreasing" means non-increasing.

Formalization targets

Goal: Corollary 4.2, display (4.7)

For every distribution FFF on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞), every λ>0\lambda > 0λ>0 and every threshold xxx,

Hˉ(t)=∑k=0∞e−λt(λt)kk!F(k)(x)is IHRA.\bar H(t) = \sum_{k=0}^\infty e^{-\lambda t}\frac{(\lambda t)^k}{k!} F^{(k)}(x) \quad \text{is IHRA.}Hˉ(t)=k=0∑∞​e−λtk!(λt)k​F(k)(x)is IHRA.

This is the first of the three statements of Corollary 4.2; the second ((4.7a), independent damages FiF_iFi​ that worsen with iii) is an extra item of this mission, and the third ((4.7b), dependent damages satisfying (4.3)–(4.5)) belongs to mission III of this series.

Milestones

  1. (2.6): Hˉ(t)≥Hˉ(0)e−λt\bar H(t) \ge \bar H(0)e^{-\lambda t}Hˉ(t)≥Hˉ(0)e−λt for t≥0t \ge 0t≥0.
  2. Theorem 3.1 (3.4) through the three claims of its proof (p. 633): if 1=Pˉ0≥Pˉ1≥…1 = \bar P_0 \ge \bar P_1 \ge \dots1=Pˉ0​≥Pˉ1​≥… and Pˉk1/k\bar P_k^{1/k}Pˉk1/k​ is decreasing in k≥1k \ge 1k≥1, then Pˉk−ζk\bar P_k - \zeta^kPˉk​−ζk (0≤ζ≤10 \le \zeta \le 10≤ζ≤1) has at most one sign change, from +++ to −-−; this property passes to Hˉ(t)−e−(1−ζ)λt\bar H(t) - e^{-(1-\zeta)\lambda t}Hˉ(t)−e−(1−ζ)λt on t≥0t \ge 0t≥0; hence Hˉ(t)−e−θt\bar H(t) - e^{-\theta t}Hˉ(t)−e−θt has at most one sign change for every θ>0\theta > 0θ>0; and HHH is IHRA.
  3. Lemma 4.1: for FFF on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞), [F(k)(x)]1/k[F^{(k)}(x)]^{1/k}[F(k)(x)]1/k is decreasing in k=1,2,…k = 1, 2, \dotsk=1,2,….

Further items

Lemma 4.1a and Corollary 4.2 (4.7a); Theorem 4.4 ([F(k)(x)]1/k[F^{(k)}(x)]^{1/k}[F(k)(x)]1/k is constant in kkk iff FFF has no mass in (0,x](0,x](0,x]); Corollary 4.5 ((4.7) is exponential iff FFF has no mass in (0,x](0,x](0,x]); Corollary 4.11 ([P{N(x)≥k}]1/k[P\{N(x) \ge k\}]^{1/k}[P{N(x)≥k}]1/k is decreasing for the count N(x)N(x)N(x) of an ordinary renewal process).

Significance

The goal turns a modelling assumption into a theorem: anyone who models failure as accumulated nonnegative damage under Poisson shocks obtains, without further checks, every consequence of IHRA proved in reliability theory, including the closure of the class under the formation of coherent systems. Theorem 3.1 (3.4) is reusable on its own: it reduces the IHRA property of any Poisson mixture to a discrete condition on the Pˉk\bar P_kPˉk​, and the same scheme drives the first passage result for wear processes (Theorem 4.10, mission III). Lemma 4.1, applied to renewal processes, gives Corollary 4.11, a statement about renewal counts with no shock model in sight.

All results are proved in the paper; none has a machine-checked proof that we know of. The Mathlib library has the Poisson distribution and the convolution of measures, but no reliability classes, no total positivity and no variation diminishing property. The mission's output is a formal proof of the paper's chain of results and, along the way, reusable statements about Poisson mixtures and convolution powers.

Difficulty

Two steps resist a direct argument. The first is the transfer from sequences to functions: knowing that Pˉk−ζk\bar P_k - \zeta^kPˉk​−ζk changes sign at most once says nothing pointwise about the series ∑k(Pˉk−ζk)K(k,t)\sum_k(\bar P_k - \zeta^k)K(k,t)∑k​(Pˉk​−ζk)K(k,t). The paper invokes the variation diminishing property of the totally positive Poisson kernel (Karlin, Total Positivity, 1968), which is not in Mathlib. The second is Lemma 4.1, an inequality between convolution powers of an arbitrary law: no density, moments or continuity may be assumed, atoms at 000 and at xxx are allowed, so any argument through densities or Laplace transforms loses generality. A further subtlety is the passage from "one sign change of Hˉ(t)−e−θt\bar H(t) - e^{-\theta t}Hˉ(t)−e−θt for every θ\thetaθ" to the monotonicity of [Hˉ(t)]1/t[\bar H(t)]^{1/t}[Hˉ(t)]1/t, which needs care where Hˉ\bar HHˉ vanishes.

Formalization scope

  • A distribution FFF with F(z)=0F(z) = 0F(z)=0 for z<0z < 0z<0 is a probability measure μ\muμ on R\mathbb RR with μ(−∞,0)=0\mu(-\infty,0) = 0μ(−∞,0)=0; nothing else is assumed. F(k)F^{(k)}F(k) is the kkk-fold additive convolution of μ\muμ (Mathlib's Measure.conv) starting from the point mass at 000, and F(k)(x)F^{(k)}(x)F(k)(x) is the real number F(k)(−∞,x]F^{(k)}(-\infty,x]F(k)(−∞,x].
  • Hˉ\bar HHˉ is the series (2.1) as a function on R\mathbb RR, equal to 111 on t<0t < 0t<0. It is never defined through a constructed random failure time, and IHRA is never encoded through a condition on the Pˉk\bar P_kPˉk​: the goal concludes that [Hˉ(t)]1/t[\bar H(t)]^{1/t}[Hˉ(t)]1/t is decreasing on t>0t > 0t>0 for the series itself. This rules out the trivializing reading in which the goal unfolds to Lemma 4.1.
  • Powers [Hˉ(t)]1/t[\bar H(t)]^{1/t}[Hˉ(t)]1/t and Pˉk1/k\bar P_k^{1/k}Pˉk1/k​ are real powers with exponent 1/t1/t1/t, 1/k1/k1/k in R\mathbb RR.
  • Hypotheses the paper leaves implicit and the Lean statements make explicit: λ>0\lambda > 0λ>0; Pˉk≥0\bar P_k \ge 0Pˉk​≥0 (the Pˉk\bar P_kPˉk​ are probabilities); in Corollary 4.5, x≥0x \ge 0x≥0 (the threshold is a capacity), and "exponential" includes the degenerate rate 000.
  • Sign change statements about Hˉ\bar HHˉ hold on t≥0t \ge 0t≥0, where the series defines it.
  • The threshold xxx in the goal ranges over all reals, as printed.
  • In Corollary 4.11 the renewal process is given by independent measurable interarrival times with common law μ\muμ, and N(x)=#{k≥1:X1+⋯+Xk≤x}N(x) = \#\{k \ge 1 : X_1 + \dots + X_k \le x\}N(x)=#{k≥1:X1​+⋯+Xk​≤x} takes values in {0,1,…,∞}\{0, 1, \dots, \infty\}{0,1,…,∞}.

A complete development needs: the variation diminishing property of the Poisson kernel (reusable for every Poisson mixture), monotonicity of [F(k)(x)]1/k[F^{(k)}(x)]^{1/k}[F(k)(x)]1/k via convolution integrals, and elementary facts about real powers and sign changes. Proofs of any milestone or extra item, and general total positivity lemmas, are welcome.

Selected references

  • J. D. Esary, A. W. Marshall and F. Proschan, Shock Models and Wear Processes, The Annals of Probability 1(4) (1973) 627–649. https://doi.org/10.1214/aop/1176996891
  • Z. W. Birnbaum, J. D. Esary and A. W. Marshall, A Stochastic Characterization of Wear-Out for Components and Systems, The Annals of Mathematical Statistics 37 (1966) 816–825. https://doi.org/10.1214/aoms/1177699362
  • S. Karlin, Total Positivity, Vol. I, Stanford University Press, 1968.
  • R. E. Barlow and F. Proschan, Mathematical Theory of Reliability, Wiley, 1965. https://doi.org/10.1137/1.9781611971194
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Numerical AnalysisOperations ResearchOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Globally Convergent Inexact Newton Methods I: Inexact Newton Backtracking Converges to Every Limit Point Where F′ Is Invertible, That Point Is a Zero of F, and Initial Steps Are Eventually AcceptedResearch Paper

Motivation

Newton's method for a nonlinear system F(x)=0F(x) = 0F(x)=0, with F:Rn→RnF:\mathbb R^n\to\mathbb R^nF:Rn→Rn, solves the linear system F′(xk)sk=−F(xk)F'(x_k)s_k = -F(x_k)F′(xk​)sk​=−F(xk​) at every step. For large systems that solve is itself iterative (a Krylov method such as GMRES), and it is stopped early. The resulting inexact Newton methods, introduced by Dembo, Eisenstat and Steihaug (SIAM J. Numer. Anal. 19 (1982)), accept any step with ∥F(xk)+F′(xk)sk∥≤ηk∥F(xk)∥\|F(x_k)+F'(x_k)s_k\|\le\eta_k\|F(x_k)\|∥F(xk​)+F′(xk​)sk​∥≤ηk​∥F(xk​)∥, where the forcing term ηk∈[0,1)\eta_k\in[0,1)ηk​∈[0,1) controls how accurately the linear system is solved. Their theory is local: it applies once the iterates are near a solution with invertible derivative.

Practical solvers (Newton–Krylov codes in large-scale simulation, nonlinear solver libraries such as PETSc's SNES and SUNDIALS' KINSOL) combine such inexact steps with a globalization, most often backtracking along the step. Eisenstat and Walker (SIAM J. Optim. 4 (1994)) gave the global convergence theory for this combination: what can be said about the iterates from an arbitrary starting point, with no assumption that a solution exists or that F′F'F′ is invertible anywhere.

Timeline. Dembo, Eisenstat and Steihaug (1982) proved local convergence of inexact Newton methods. Dembo and Steihaug (Math. Program. 26 (1983)) studied truncated Newton methods for unconstrained minimization. Brown and Saad (1990) studied globalized Newton–Krylov methods with line searches and model trust regions, under the inner-product norm. Eisenstat and Walker (1994) gave the general framework treated here, for an arbitrary norm. Their 1996 paper (SIAM J. Sci. Comput. 17) proposed the forcing-term choices that are now standard.

Setting

Let EEE be Rn\mathbb R^nRn with an arbitrary norm ∥⋅∥\|\cdot\|∥⋅∥, and let F:E→EF:E\to EF:E→E be continuously differentiable with derivative F′(x)F'(x)F′(x). A point x∗x_*x∗​ is a limit point of (xk)(x_k)(xk​) if every ball Nδ(x∗)={y:∥y−x∗∥<δ}N_\delta(x_*)=\{y:\|y-x_*\|<\delta\}Nδ​(x∗​)={y:∥y−x∗​∥<δ} contains xkx_kxk​ for infinitely many kkk.

Algorithm GIN (global inexact Newton method). Fix t∈(0,1)t\in(0,1)t∈(0,1). At each kkk, find a level ηk∈[0,1)\eta_k\in[0,1)ηk​∈[0,1) and a step sks_ksk​ with

∥F(xk)+F′(xk)sk∥≤ηk∥F(xk)∥(2.1),∥F(xk+sk)∥≤[1−t(1−ηk)] ∥F(xk)∥(2.2),\|F(x_k)+F'(x_k)s_k\|\le\eta_k\|F(x_k)\| \quad (2.1),\qquad \|F(x_k+s_k)\|\le[1-t(1-\eta_k)]\,\|F(x_k)\| \quad (2.2),∥F(xk​)+F′(xk​)sk​∥≤ηk​∥F(xk​)∥(2.1),∥F(xk​+sk​)∥≤[1−t(1−ηk​)]∥F(xk​)∥(2.2),

and set xk+1=xk+skx_{k+1}=x_k+s_kxk+1​=xk​+sk​. Condition (2.1) says that sks_ksk​ reduces the norm of the local linear model by the factor ηk\eta_kηk​. Condition (2.2) asks that ∥F∥\|F\|∥F∥ itself decrease by a fixed fraction ttt of that predicted reduction.

Algorithm MR (minimum reduction method). Fix ηmax⁡∈[0,1)\eta_{\max}\in[0,1)ηmax​∈[0,1) and 0<θmin⁡<θmax⁡<10<\theta_{\min}<\theta_{\max}<10<θmin​<θmax​<1. At step kkk, choose ηˉk∈[0,ηmax⁡]\bar\eta_k\in[0,\eta_{\max}]ηˉ​k​∈[0,ηmax​] and a curve σk\sigma_kσk​ with ∥F(xk)+F′(xk)σk(η)∥≤η∥F(xk)∥\|F(x_k)+F'(x_k)\sigma_k(\eta)\|\le\eta\|F(x_k)\|∥F(xk​)+F′(xk​)σk​(η)∥≤η∥F(xk​)∥ for ηˉk≤η≤1\bar\eta_k\le\eta\le1ηˉ​k​≤η≤1 (5.1). Start at ηk=ηˉk\eta_k=\bar\eta_kηk​=ηˉ​k​. While (2.2) fails for sk=σk(ηk)s_k=\sigma_k(\eta_k)sk​=σk​(ηk​), replace ηk\eta_kηk​ by 1−θ(1−ηk)1-\theta(1-\eta_k)1−θ(1−ηk​) for some θ∈[θmin⁡,θmax⁡]\theta\in[\theta_{\min},\theta_{\max}]θ∈[θmin​,θmax​]. Then set xk+1=xk+σk(ηk)x_{k+1}=x_k+\sigma_k(\eta_k)xk+1​=xk​+σk​(ηk​).

Algorithm INB (inexact Newton backtracking). Choose ηˉk∈[0,ηmax⁡]\bar\eta_k\in[0,\eta_{\max}]ηˉ​k​∈[0,ηmax​] and an inexact Newton step sˉk\bar s_ksˉk​ at level ηˉk\bar\eta_kηˉ​k​. While (2.2) fails, shorten the step, sk←θsks_k\leftarrow\theta s_ksk​←θsk​, and raise the level, ηk←1−θ(1−ηk)\eta_k\leftarrow1-\theta(1-\eta_k)ηk​←1−θ(1−ηk​). INB is MR with the backtracking curve σk(η)=1−η1−ηˉksˉk\sigma_k(\eta)=\frac{1-\eta}{1-\bar\eta_k}\bar s_kσk​(η)=1−ηˉ​k​1−η​sˉk​ (6.1).

An algorithm does not break down if it produces an infinite sequence of iterates, in particular if every while-loop exits.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 6.1 (global convergence of Algorithm INB)

If Algorithm INB does not break down and x∗x_*x∗​ is a limit point of (xk)(x_k)(xk​) at which F′(x∗)F'(x_*)F′(x∗​) is invertible, then

F(x∗)=0,xk→x∗,sk=sˉk and ηk=ηˉk for all sufficiently large k.F(x_*)=0,\qquad x_k\to x_*,\qquad s_k=\bar s_k\ \text{and}\ \eta_k=\bar\eta_k\ \text{for all sufficiently large }k.F(x∗​)=0,xk​→x∗​,sk​=sˉk​ and ηk​=ηˉ​k​ for all sufficiently large k.

The statement assumes no solution, bounded level set, Lipschitz derivative or particular norm. The last clause says that backtracking eventually stops, so the local rate is governed by the forcing terms ηˉk\bar\eta_kηˉ​k​.

Milestones

In attack order:

  1. Lemmas 1.1 and 1.2. Continuity of y↦F′(y)−1y\mapsto F'(y)^{-1}y↦F′(y)−1 at an invertible point, and a uniform linearization error ∥F(z)−F(y)−F′(y)(z−y)∥≤ε∥z−y∥\|F(z)-F(y)-F'(y)(z-y)\|\le\varepsilon\|z-y\|∥F(z)−F(y)−F′(y)(z−y)∥≤ε∥z−y∥ near xxx.
  2. Theorem 3.3. If F(xk)→0F(x_k)\to0F(xk​)→0, the steps satisfy (2.1) with a fixed η\etaη, and ∥F(xk)∥\|F(x_k)\|∥F(xk​)∥ is nonincreasing, then an invertible limit point is a zero and the limit.
  3. Theorem 3.4. A GIN run with ∑k(1−ηk)=∞\sum_k(1-\eta_k)=\infty∑k​(1−ηk​)=∞ has F(xk)→0F(x_k)\to0F(xk​)→0, plus the conclusion of Theorem 3.3 at invertible limit points.
  4. Theorem 3.5. A GIN run converges to a limit point near which ∥sk∥≤Γ(1−ηk)∥F(xk)∥\|s_k\|\le\Gamma(1-\eta_k)\|F(x_k)\|∥sk​∥≤Γ(1−ηk​)∥F(xk​)∥ (3.2).
  5. Lemma 5.1. The while-loop terminates, with 1−ηk≥min⁡{1−ηˉk,θmin⁡δ/(Γ∥F(xk)∥)}1-\eta_k\ge\min\{1-\bar\eta_k,\theta_{\min}\delta/(\Gamma\|F(x_k)\|)\}1−ηk​≥min{1−ηˉ​k​,θmin​δ/(Γ∥F(xk​)∥)}.
  6. MR runs are GIN runs (§5).
  7. Theorem 5.2 for MR. Under ∥σk(η)∥≤Γ(1−η)∥F(xk)∥\|\sigma_k(\eta)\|\le\Gamma(1-\eta)\|F(x_k)\|∥σk​(η)∥≤Γ(1−η)∥F(xk​)∥ near a limit point x∗x_*x∗​ (5.6): F(x∗)=0F(x_*)=0F(x∗​)=0, xk→x∗x_k\to x_*xk​→x∗​, and ηk=ηˉk\eta_k=\bar\eta_kηk​=ηˉ​k​ eventually.
  8. INB runs are MR runs with the curve (6.1), and sk=σk(ηk)s_k=\sigma_k(\eta_k)sk​=σk​(ηk​) throughout the loop (§6).

Further items, which are not milestones: Corollary 6.2 (exact Newton with backtracking takes full Newton steps eventually), Theorem 5.2 for Algorithm TL, Lemma 3.1 (existence of acceptable GIN steps), and Proposition 2.1 (the Goldstein–Armijo alpha condition implies (2.2) in the Euclidean norm).

Significance

The result. Theorem 6.1 is the global convergence guarantee for the inexact Newton backtracking method that Newton–Krylov solvers implement. It separates three outcomes: the iterates diverge, they accumulate only at points where F′F'F′ is singular, or they converge to a solution with invertible derivative and eventually take the unmodified inexact Newton steps. In the third case the local theory of Dembo, Eisenstat and Steihaug applies from some iteration on, so the forcing terms alone set the convergence rate. Theorem 5.2 is the template: §§6–8 of the paper derive the convergence of backtracking, equality-curve and dogleg-type methods from it by verifying (5.6).

Formalizing it. The results are proved on paper and none of them has a machine-checked proof that we know of. The mission produces a library of algorithm-run predicates with explicit while-loops for inexact Newton methods. It also checks the paper's reduction chain (INB is a run of MR, MR is a run of GIN) and the global convergence theorems in an arbitrary finite-dimensional norm.

Difficulty

The obvious argument fails at both ends. Sufficient decrease (2.2) alone gives monotonicity of ∥F(xk)∥\|F(x_k)\|∥F(xk​)∥, but not convergence of the iterates. On the page, F(x)=x2−1F(x)=x^2-1F(x)=x2−1 admits sequences satisfying (2.2) with both ±1\pm1±1 as limit points. Convergence of ∥F(xk)∥\|F(x_k)\|∥F(xk​)∥ to 000 needs ∑(1−ηk)=∞\sum(1-\eta_k)=\infty∑(1−ηk​)=∞, and nothing in the algorithm states this. In Theorem 5.2 it has to be derived from the exit level of the while-loop, which depends on a neighbourhood of x∗x_*x∗​ where the linearization error is uniformly controlled. A solver must combine a limit-point argument (only infinitely many iterates are near x∗x_*x∗​, not all of them) with the loop's worst-case backtracking factor θmin⁡\theta_{\min}θmin​. The invertibility of F′(x∗)F'(x_*)F′(x∗​) enters only through the bound (5.6) for the backtracking curve, which must be established uniformly in kkk.

Formalization scope

  • Space and norm. EEE is a finite-dimensional real normed space ([NormedAddCommGroup E] [NormedSpace ℝ E] [FiniteDimensional ℝ E]). This is exactly "Rn\mathbb R^nRn with an arbitrary norm". Fin n → ℝ (sup norm) and EuclideanSpace would each fix one norm. Only Proposition 2.1 assumes an inner product space, as the page does.
  • Derivative. F′F'F′ is fderiv ℝ F, with ContDiff ℝ 1 F (the paper's standing assumption). Invertibility is ContinuousLinearMap.IsInvertible, and F′(x)−1F'(x)^{-1}F′(x)−1 is ContinuousLinearMap.inverse.
  • Runs. An algorithm that does not break down is a predicate on infinite sequences (IsGINRun, IsMRRun, IsINBRun, plus IsTLRun, IsENBRun). The steps and levels the algorithm says to "find" or "choose" are data constrained only by the stated conditions. A while-loop is recorded by its number of passes mkm_kmk​ and factors θk,j∈[θmin⁡,θmax⁡]\theta_{k,j}\in[\theta_{\min},\theta_{\max}]θk,j​∈[θmin​,θmax​]. Every trial before the last fails the loop's test and the last one passes it. Termination is part of the run.
  • Limit point is MapClusterPt xstar atTop x. "For all sufficiently large kkk" is ∀ᶠ k in atTop. The paper's "whenever xkx_kxk​ is sufficiently near x∗x_*x∗​ [and kkk is sufficiently large]" is ∃ Γ, ∃ δ > 0, [∃ K,] ∀ k [≥ K], x k ∈ ball xstar δ → …. Γ\GammaΓ precedes kkk ("independent of kkk"), and the "kkk large" clause appears only in (3.2), where the page has it.
  • Hypotheses as printed. Theorems 3.5 and 5.2 do not assume F′(x∗)F'(x_*)F′(x∗​) invertible. Theorem 5.2 does not assume ∑(1−ηk)=∞\sum(1-\eta_k)=\infty∑(1−ηk​)=∞. Lemma 5.1 is stated for one iteration of the loop shared by MR and TL, for every choice of factors.
  • Trivializing readings ruled out. A run predicate without the "rejected" clause would allow needless backtracking, and one without the "accepted" clause would drop (2.2). Both clauses are present. A sorry-free check (F = id on R\mathbb RR) confirms that the INB, GIN and ENB run predicates and the goal's hypotheses are satisfiable, so the goal is not vacuous.
  • Infrastructure. Continuity of operator inversion and uniform differentiability on neighbourhoods are in Mathlib. The run predicates and trial-level recursions are reusable for any line-search or backtracking analysis. Each milestone is stated independently; contributions in any order are welcome.

Selected references

  • S. C. Eisenstat and H. F. Walker, Globally Convergent Inexact Newton Methods, SIAM J. Optim. 4(2) (1994) 393–422. https://doi.org/10.1137/0804022
  • R. S. Dembo, S. C. Eisenstat and T. Steihaug, Inexact Newton Methods, SIAM J. Numer. Anal. 19(2) (1982) 400–408. https://doi.org/10.1137/0719025
  • R. S. Dembo and T. Steihaug, Truncated-Newton algorithms for large-scale unconstrained optimization, Math. Program. 26 (1983) 190–212. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02592055
  • P. N. Brown and Y. Saad, Hybrid Krylov Methods for Nonlinear Systems of Equations, SIAM J. Sci. Stat. Comput. 11(3) (1990) 450–481. https://doi.org/10.1137/0911026
  • S. C. Eisenstat and H. F. Walker, Choosing the Forcing Terms in an Inexact Newton Method, SIAM J. Sci. Comput. 17(1) (1996) 16–32. https://doi.org/10.1137/0917003
  • J. E. Dennis and R. B. Schnabel, Numerical Methods for Unconstrained Optimization and Nonlinear Equations, SIAM Classics in Applied Mathematics 16 (1996). https://doi.org/10.1137/1.9781611971200
12 thms1 active userReviewed
Operations ResearchProbabilityStochastic Systems·Captain: mikedeng1

The Relation between Customer and Time Averages in Queues: H = λG on Every Sample Path When 0 < λ < ∞, G < ∞ and Each f_n Vanishes Outside [t_n, t_n + s_n] with s_n/n → 0Research Paper

Motivation

Little's law L=λWL = \lambda WL=λW says that the long-run average number of customers in a system equals the arrival rate times the average time a customer spends there. It is one of the most used identities in queueing theory, and it holds on individual sample paths under weak conditions (Little 1961; Stidham 1974). Many quantities of interest are not head counts, however: the work in the system, the cost accumulated by customers in progress, the number of tokens a customer holds in some state. For these a more general relation is needed, between a time average HHH and a customer average GGG, of the form H=λGH = \lambda GH=λG.

Heyman and Stidham (Oper. Res. 28 (1980)) prove such a relation on each sample path, for an arbitrary real-valued function attached to each customer, under a support condition that is much weaker than the continuous-sojourn assumption of the L=λWL = \lambda WL=λW theorem. They then show by a counterexample that the support condition cannot simply be dropped, even when every customer function is an indicator.

Timeline.

  • 1961: Little proves L=λWL = \lambda WL=λW under stationarity assumptions (Little 1961).
  • 1971: Brumelle proves H=λGH = \lambda GH=λG under conditions (v.a), (v.b) on the tails of the fnf_nfn​ (J. Appl. Prob. 8, 508–520).
  • 1972: Stidham gives a new proof of L=λWL = \lambda WL=λW, including the lemma relating N(t)/tN(t)/tN(t)/t and tn/nt_n/ntn​/n (Stidham 1972).
  • 1974: Stidham proves L=λWL = \lambda WL=λW on each sample path, assuming each sojourn is one uninterrupted interval (Stidham 1974).
  • 1980: Heyman and Stidham prove H=λGH = \lambda GH=λG on every sample path under the support condition below, and give the counterexample. The paper notes that its Theorem 1 is weaker than the sample-path version of Brumelle's theorem, with hypotheses stated directly on the sample path.

Setting

Fix one sample path. Customers n=1,2,…n = 1, 2, \ldotsn=1,2,… arrive at epochs 0≤t1≤t2≤⋯0 \le t_1 \le t_2 \le \cdots0≤t1​≤t2​≤⋯; ties are allowed. The arrival count N(t)N(t)N(t) is the number of nnn with tn≤tt_n \le ttn​≤t, and the arrival rate is λ=lim⁡t→∞N(t)/t\lambda = \lim_{t\to\infty} N(t)/tλ=limt→∞​N(t)/t when the limit exists.

Customer nnn carries a real-valued function fnf_nfn​ on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞). Its total is gn=∫0∞fn(t) dtg_n = \int_0^\infty f_n(t)\,dtgn​=∫0∞​fn​(t)dt, and the rate is h(t)=∑n=1∞fn(t)h(t) = \sum_{n=1}^\infty f_n(t)h(t)=∑n=1∞​fn​(t). The customer average and time average are

G=lim⁡N→∞1N∑n=1Ngn,H=lim⁡T→∞1T∫0Th(t) dt.G = \lim_{N\to\infty} \frac1N \sum_{n=1}^N g_n, \qquad H = \lim_{T\to\infty} \frac1T \int_0^T h(t)\,dt .G=N→∞lim​N1​n=1∑N​gn​,H=T→∞lim​T1​∫0T​h(t)dt.

When fnf_nfn​ is the indicator of [tn,tn+Wn)[t_n, t_n + W_n)[tn​,tn​+Wn​), gn=Wng_n = W_ngn​=Wn​ is the sojourn time and h(t)h(t)h(t) is the number in system, so H=λGH = \lambda GH=λG is L=λWL = \lambda WL=λW.

The ASSUMPTION of the paper is that for each nnn there is sn∈[0,∞)s_n \in [0,\infty)sn​∈[0,∞) with

  1. (i) fn(t)=0f_n(t) = 0fn​(t)=0 for t∉[tn,tn+sn]t \notin [t_n, t_n + s_n]t∈/[tn​,tn​+sn​];
  2. (ii) sn/n→0s_n / n \to 0sn​/n→0.

For signed fnf_nfn​ write fn+=max⁡[0,fn]f_n^+ = \max[0, f_n]fn+​=max[0,fn​], fn−=max⁡[0,−fn]f_n^- = \max[0, -f_n]fn−​=max[0,−fn​], and let gn±g_n^\pmgn±​, h±h^\pmh±, G±G^\pmG±, H±H^\pmH± be the corresponding totals, rates and averages.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 2 (p. 986)

Assume (i), (ii) and (v) ∫0∞∣fn(t)∣ dt<∞\int_0^\infty |f_n(t)|\,dt < \infty∫0∞​∣fn​(t)∣dt<∞ for every nnn. If λ\lambdaλ, G+G^+G+ and G−G^-G− exist with 0<λ<∞0 < \lambda < \infty0<λ<∞ and G±<∞G^\pm < \inftyG±<∞, then GGG exists, equals G+−G−G^+ - G^-G+−G−, HHH exists, and

H=λG.(1)H = \lambda G. \tag{1}H=λG.(1)

Milestones

  • (2): for 0<λ<∞0 < \lambda < \infty0<λ<∞, N(t)/t→λN(t)/t \to \lambdaN(t)/t→λ if and only if tn/n→λ−1t_n / n \to \lambda^{-1}tn​/n→λ−1.
  • (3): for fn≥0f_n \ge 0fn​≥0, V(T)≤∫0Th(t) dt≤U(T)V(T) \le \int_0^T h(t)\,dt \le U(T)V(T)≤∫0T​h(t)dt≤U(T), where U(T)U(T)U(T) sums gng_ngn​ over arrived customers and V(T)V(T)V(T) over customers with tn+sn≤Tt_n + s_n \le Ttn​+sn​≤T.
  • (4): λG=lim⁡t→∞U(t)/t\lambda G = \lim_{t\to\infty} U(t)/tλG=limt→∞​U(t)/t.
  • sn/tn→0s_n / t_n \to 0sn​/tn​→0, and lim⁡U(t)/t=lim⁡V(t)/t\lim U(t)/t = \lim V(t)/tlimU(t)/t=limV(t)/t.
  • Theorem 1 (p. 985): for fn≥0f_n \ge 0fn​≥0 under (i)–(iv), H=λGH = \lambda GH=λG.
  • The identity ∫0Th+−∫0Th−=∫0Th\int_0^T h^+ - \int_0^T h^- = \int_0^T h∫0T​h+−∫0T​h−=∫0T​h and (6): G=G+−G−G = G^+ - G^-G=G+−G−, H=H+−H−H = H^+ - H^-H=H+−H−.

Companion results

  • The §3 counterexample: tn=nt_n = ntn​=n, indicator fnf_nfn​ with gn=1g_n = 1gn​=1, so λ=G=1\lambda = G = 1λ=G=1, but H=log⁡2H = \log 2H=log2; its support span sn=ns_n = nsn​=n satisfies (i) and fails (ii).
  • Corollary 3 (p. 988): if λ(ω)=λ\lambda(\omega) = \lambdaλ(ω)=λ is constant, the ensemble averages satisfy ∫H dP=λ∫G dP\int H\,dP = \lambda \int G\,dP∫HdP=λ∫GdP.
  • G=W<∞G = W < \inftyG=W<∞ implies Wn/n→0W_n / n \to 0Wn​/n→0 (p. 986), the step by which Theorem 1 contains L=λWL = \lambda WL=λW.

Significance

The result. H=λGH = \lambda GH=λG converts between a time average, which is what a system designer measures, and a customer average, which is what a customer experiences. Applied to different fnf_nfn​ it yields L=λWL = \lambda WL=λW, the relation between average work in system and average customer work, and relations between time-stationary and embedded-chain probabilities; §2 of the paper derives the GI/M/c/K relation this way. Because the support condition (i)–(ii) allows a customer's contribution to be interrupted (leaving and re-entering the system), it covers preemptive priority queues and nodes of networks, which the continuous-sojourn L=λWL = \lambda WL=λW theorem does not. The counterexample marks the boundary: with interrupted sojourns, indicator functions and finite λ\lambdaλ, GGG alone do not suffice.

Formalizing it. The result is proved on paper, with two steps delegated to earlier work "by mimicking" Lemma 1 and Theorem 2 of Stidham 1974. The indicator special case L=λWL = \lambda WL=λW (with strictly increasing arrivals) is already proved on Prove2Me as queueing_general_littles_law (wenxinzhang). This mission asks for the general, signed, pathwise statement and its proof steps, a counterexample with an exactly computed time average log⁡2\log 2log2, and the ensemble corollary.

Difficulty

The obvious argument, exchanging the time integral of hhh with the sum over customers, gives ∫0Th=∑n∫0Tfn\int_0^T h = \sum_n \int_0^T f_n∫0T​h=∑n​∫0T​fn​, but a customer that has arrived by TTT may contribute only part of its total gng_ngn​ by TTT. The sandwich V(T)≤∫0Th≤U(T)V(T) \le \int_0^T h \le U(T)V(T)≤∫0T​h≤U(T) only bounds this loss; the hard step is showing that U(t)/tU(t)/tU(t)/t and V(t)/tV(t)/tV(t)/t have the same limit, which needs sn/tn→0s_n / t_n \to 0sn​/tn​→0 to compare VVV at time ttt with UUU at a slightly earlier time. Without (ii) this fails, as the counterexample shows: customers there remain "open" for a window proportional to their index.

For signed fnf_nfn​ the sandwich is not available directly, and the proof splits fnf_nfn​ into positive and negative parts; the exchange of sum and integral then needs the finiteness of the parts on every [0,T][0,T][0,T].

Formalization scope

All statements except Corollary 3 are about one fixed sample path; the paper's "with probability one" is the pathwise statement applied to almost every path, and Corollary 3 states this explicitly with a probability measure and almost-sure hypotheses.

Conventions:

  • Customers are indexed from 000 in Lean; index nnn is the paper's customer n+1n+1n+1, so sn/n→0s_n/n \to 0sn​/n→0 is written sn/(n+1)→0s_n/(n+1) \to 0sn​/(n+1)→0.
  • Arrival epochs are Monotone with t0≥0t_0 \ge 0t0​≥0; ties are allowed.
  • fn:R→Rf_n : \mathbb R \to \mathbb Rfn​:R→R, but only values on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞) enter: (i) is required only for t≥0t \ge 0t≥0, gng_ngn​ integrates over [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞), and time averages integrate over [0,T][0,T][0,T].
  • (iv) and (v) are stated as integrability of fnf_nfn​ on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞); the page prints (iv) as "≤∞\le \infty≤∞", a misprint for "<∞< \infty<∞".
  • N(t)N(t)N(t) is the cardinality of {n:tn≤t}\{n : t_n \le t\}{n:tn​≤t}; hhh, UUU, VVV are infinite sums over all customers.
  • "HHH exists" includes integrability of hhh on every [0,T][0,T][0,T].
  • The page prints (6) as "G=G+−G+G = G^+ - G^+G=G+−G+"; the stated identity is G=G+−G−G = G^+ - G^-G=G+−G−, as the proof shows.

Added hypotheses: milestones (3), the h±h^\pmh± identity and (6) assume tn→∞t_n \to \inftytn​→∞, which the paper derives from (2); Corollary 3 assumes G(ω)G(\omega)G(ω) is integrable, which its definition of the ensemble average presupposes.

A formalization in which hhh sums only over arrived customers, or in which a non-integrable hhh or fnf_nfn​ has integral 000, would make the statements trivial or different; the definitions rule this out by summing over all customers and requiring integrability.

Needed infrastructure: Cesàro averages and counting functions of nondecreasing sequences, interchange of countable sums and integrals for locally finite families, and harmonic sums ∑m=⌈(k+1)/2⌉k1/m→log⁡2\sum_{m=\lceil (k+1)/2\rceil}^{k} 1/m \to \log 2∑m=⌈(k+1)/2⌉k​1/m→log2. The counting-function lemma (2) and the squeeze for UUU and VVV are reusable well beyond this mission. Proofs of any milestone are welcome independently.

Selected references

  • D. P. Heyman and S. Stidham, Jr., The relation between customer and time averages in queues, Operations Research 28(4):983–994, 1980. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.28.4.983
  • J. D. C. Little, A proof for the queuing formula: L = λW, Operations Research 9(3):383–387, 1961. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.9.3.383
  • S. Stidham, Jr., L = λW: a discounted analogue and a new proof, Operations Research 20(6):1115–1126, 1972. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.20.6.1115
  • S. Stidham, Jr., A last word on L = λW, Operations Research 22(2):417–421, 1974. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.22.2.417
  • S. L. Brumelle, On the relation between customer and time averages in queues, Journal of Applied Probability 8:508–520, 1971.
11 thms1 active userReviewed
Dynamic ProgrammingLinear OptimizationMarkov Chain+1·Captain: mikedeng1

Linear Programming and Markov Decision Chains 3: The Representative of a Pure Stationary Policy Is an Extreme Point of the Dual LPResearch Paper

Linear programs for average-reward Markov decision chains

A Markov decision chain is a controlled Markov chain: in each state the controller picks an action, collects a reward and moves to a random next state with probabilities that depend on the state and the action. Under the average reward criterion, the long-run reward per step, an optimal policy can be computed by linear programming. For chains in which every stationary policy has a single recurrent class (the unichain case) this goes back to Manne (1960), de Ghellinck (1960) and d'Epenoux (1960): the variables of the dual linear program are long-run state–action frequencies, and the vertices of its feasible set are exactly the pure stationary policies.

In the general multichain case a policy may split the state space into several recurrent classes with transient states between them, and the frequency picture breaks down. Denardo and Fox (1968) and Denardo (1970) gave linear programs that require solving several programs in sequence. Hordijk and Kallenberg (Management Science 25(4), 1979) showed that one pair of dual linear programs suffices: from an optimal dual solution one reads off an average optimal policy (their Theorems 7 and 8). To make the correspondence between policies and dual solutions explicit, they attach to every stationary policy a representative, a particular feasible solution of the dual program, and prove (Theorem 10) that the representative of a pure stationary policy is a vertex of the feasible set. This mission formalizes Theorem 10.

Timeline:

  • 1960: Manne; de Ghellinck; d'Epenoux. The linear program for unichain average-reward problems, with pure policies at the vertices.
  • 1962: Blackwell. The limit matrix P∗P^*P∗ and deviation matrix DDD of a finite stochastic matrix, and their identities (Ann. Math. Statist. 33).
  • 1968–1970: Denardo and Fox; Denardo. Multichain problems by a sequence of linear programs.
  • 1979: Hordijk and Kallenberg. A single dual pair for the multichain case; representatives of stationary policies; Theorem 10.

Setting

The state space EEE is finite. Each state iii has a finite nonempty set A(i)A(i)A(i) of actions; action aaa in state iii earns riar_{ia}ria​ and moves to jjj with probability piaj≥0p_{iaj}\ge 0piaj​≥0, ∑jpiaj=1\sum_j p_{iaj}=1∑j​piaj​=1. Fix weights βj>0\beta_j>0βj​>0 with ∑jβj=1\sum_j\beta_j=1∑j​βj​=1.

The dual linear program has one pair of variables xia,yiax_{ia},y_{ia}xia​,yia​ for each state iii and each admissible action a∈A(i)a\in A(i)a∈A(i). Its feasible set consists of the (x,y)(x,y)(x,y) with

∑i∑a(δij−piaj)xia=0,∑axja+∑i∑a(δij−piaj)yia=βj(j∈E),x,y≥0.\textstyle\sum_i\sum_a(\delta_{ij}-p_{iaj})x_{ia}=0,\qquad \sum_a x_{ja}+\sum_i\sum_a(\delta_{ij}-p_{iaj})y_{ia}=\beta_j\qquad(j\in E),\qquad x,y\ge 0 .∑i​∑a​(δij​−piaj​)xia​=0,∑a​xja​+∑i​∑a​(δij​−piaj​)yia​=βj​(j∈E),x,y≥0.

A pure stationary policy f∞f^\inftyf∞ uses the action f(i)∈A(i)f(i)\in A(i)f(i)∈A(i) whenever the chain is in state iii. Its transition matrix is P(f)=(pif(i)j)P(f)=(p_{if(i)j})P(f)=(pif(i)j​). For a stochastic matrix PPP, the limit matrix P∗=lim⁡n1n∑k=1nPk−1P^*=\lim_n\frac1n\sum_{k=1}^nP^{k-1}P∗=limn​n1​∑k=1n​Pk−1 exists, and the deviation matrix is D=(I−P+P∗)−1−P∗D=(I-P+P^*)^{-1}-P^*D=(I−P+P∗)−1−P∗. A state is recurrent if every state reachable from it can reach it back, and transient otherwise; the set TTT collects the transient states, and the states reachable from a recurrent state form an ergodic set. Write E1,…,EmE_1,\dots,E_mE1​,…,Em​ for the ergodic sets of P(f)P(f)P(f).

The representative of f∞f^\inftyf∞ is

xia(f)=[βTP∗(f)]i δaf(i),yia(f)=[βTD(f)+γTP∗(f)]i δaf(i),x_{ia}(f)=[\beta^TP^*(f)]_i\,\delta_{af(i)},\qquad y_{ia}(f)=[\beta^TD(f)+\gamma^TP^*(f)]_i\,\delta_{af(i)},xia​(f)=[βTP∗(f)]i​δaf(i)​,yia​(f)=[βTD(f)+γTP∗(f)]i​δaf(i)​,

with γl=0\gamma_l=0γl​=0 for l∈Tl\in Tl∈T and, for l∈Ejl\in E_jl∈Ej​, γl=max⁡i∈Ej(−∑kβkdki)/∑k∈Ejpki∗\gamma_l=\max_{i\in E_j}\big(-\sum_k\beta_kd_{ki}\big)\big/\sum_{k\in E_j}p^*_{ki}γl​=maxi∈Ej​​(−∑k​βk​dki​)/∑k∈Ej​​pki∗​. The paper defines the same formulas for randomized stationary policies π\piπ, with πia\pi_{ia}πia​ in place of δaf(i)\delta_{af(i)}δaf(i)​.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 10 (p. 361)

(x(f),y(f)) is an extreme point of the feasible set of the dual linear program(x(f),y(f))\ \text{is an extreme point of the feasible set of the dual linear program}(x(f),y(f)) is an extreme point of the feasible set of the dual linear program

for every finite Markov decision chain, every positive probability vector β\betaβ and every pure stationary policy f∞f^\inftyf∞. The statement contains feasibility of the representative.

Milestones

  1. §3.3, pp. 359–360: the representative (x(π),y(π))(x(\pi),y(\pi))(x(π),y(π)) of any stationary policy is feasible.
  2. Proof of Theorem 10, p. 362: for a stochastic PPP, every solution of xT(I−P)=0x^T(I-P)=0xT(I−P)=0, xT+yT(I−P)=βTx^T+y^T(I-P)=\beta^TxT+yT(I−P)=βT (system (7)) satisfies xT=βTP∗x^T=\beta^TP^*xT=βTP∗ and yT=βTD+yTP∗y^T=\beta^TD+y^TP^*yT=βTD+yTP∗.
  3. Proof of Theorem 10, p. 362: such a solution has yi=(βTD)iy_i=(\beta^TD)_iyi​=(βTD)i​ for i∈Ti\in Ti∈T.
  4. Proof of Theorem 10, p. 362: on each ergodic set EkE_kEk​ of P(f)P(f)P(f) there is a state i(k)i(k)i(k) with yi(k)f(i(k))(f)=0y_{i(k)f(i(k))}(f)=0yi(k)f(i(k))​(f)=0.
  5. Proof of Theorem 10, p. 362 (Chung, p. 33): a row vector zzz with zi=∑l∈Ekzlpliz_i=\sum_{l\in E_k}z_lp_{li}zi​=∑l∈Ek​​zl​pli​ on an ergodic set EkE_kEk​ that vanishes at one state of EkE_kEk​ vanishes on all of EkE_kEk​.

Significance

Theorem 10 is the vertex half of the policy–solution correspondence of Hordijk and Kallenberg: every pure stationary policy appears as a basic feasible solution of one linear program, in the multichain case and without any communication assumption. It connects the simplex method on that program with the set of pure policies, and it is a building block for the later literature on linear programming for multichain Markov decision problems. The paper also records that the converse fails: an extreme point may induce a randomized policy.

The result is proved in the paper. As far as is known it has not been machine-checked. A formal proof also checks the exact form of γ\gammaγ: the paper prints the denominator of γl\gamma_lγl​ as ∑kpki∗\sum_k p^*_{ki}∑k​pki∗​, a sum over all states, and with that reading the representative is not feasible as soon as transient states feed an ergodic set (two states, 0→1→10\to1\to10→1→1: y1=−β0/2y_1=-\beta_0/2y1​=−β0​/2). The denominator ∑k∈Ejpki∗\sum_{k\in E_j}p^*_{ki}∑k∈Ej​​pki∗​ is the one the paper's own feasibility computation on p. 360 uses, and it is the one stated here.

Difficulty

Feasibility is a calculation with the identities PP∗=P∗P=P∗P∗=P∗PP^*=P^*P=P^*P^*=P^*PP∗=P∗P=P∗P∗=P∗ and (I−P)D=I−P∗(I-P)D=I-P^*(I−P)D=I−P∗. Extremality is the substance. Restricted to the pairs (i,f(i))(i,f(i))(i,f(i)), the constraints become the square system (7) in the state variables, and system (7) determines xxx and the transient part of yyy, but on each ergodic set it determines yyy only up to adding a multiple of the stationary distribution of that class: the matrix I−PI-PI−P is singular, with one degree of freedom per ergodic set. The naive argument, that the equality constraints alone pin the point down, therefore fails as soon as there is an ergodic set; the extra information has to come from the nonnegativity constraints, and that is why the exact value of γ\gammaγ matters. In the general multichain setting this requires the class structure of a finite Markov chain (closed classes, transient states, the support of P∗P^*P∗, uniqueness of invariant vectors on a closed communicating class), little of which is in Mathlib in usable form.

Formalization scope

  • The model is the published MarkovDecisionProcesses.StationaryMDP: finite states, finite actions, admissible sets A(i)A(i)A(i) (nonempty), transition probabilities nonnegative with unit row sums. P∗P^*P∗ and DDD are the published limitMatrix and deviationMatrix of Blackwell's Lemma 1, whose identities are the open platform theorems BlackwellDiscreteDP.NearOne.lemma_1a and lemma_1d.
  • The dual variables are functions on the subtype of admissible state–action pairs, so non-admissible actions have no coordinates. The feasible set is a subset of (Pair→R)×(Pair→R)(\mathrm{Pair}\to\mathbb R)\times(\mathrm{Pair}\to\mathbb R)(Pair→R)×(Pair→R) and "extreme point" is Mathlib's Set.extremePoints ℝ. Membership in it includes feasibility.
  • Row vectors act by vecMul. Recurrence and accessibility are the published IsRecurrent and Accessible; the ergodic set of a recurrent lll is the set of states accessible from lll. The maximum in γ\gammaγ is a Finset.sup' over that finite nonempty set.
  • γ\gammaγ uses the corrected denominator ∑k∈Ejpki∗\sum_{k\in E_j}p^*_{ki}∑k∈Ej​​pki∗​. A formalization with γ=0\gamma=0γ=0, or one in which the non-admissible coordinates of the program are free, is a different and false or trivial statement and is ruled out.
  • Stationary randomized rules are nonnegative weights on A(i)A(i)A(i) summing to one; the pure rule of fff is the indicator of f(i)f(i)f(i).
  • Useful contributions: the class decomposition of a finite stochastic matrix (closed classes, pki∗=0p^*_{ki}=0pki∗​=0 for transient iii, positivity of pii∗p^*_{ii}pii∗​ on recurrent states), uniqueness of invariant vectors on a closed communicating class, and proofs of Blackwell's Lemma 1(a), 1(d). All of these are reusable beyond this mission.

Selected references

  • A. Hordijk and L. C. M. Kallenberg, Linear Programming and Markov Decision Chains, Management Science 25(4):352–362, 1979. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.25.4.352
  • D. Blackwell, Discrete Dynamic Programming, Annals of Mathematical Statistics 33(2):719–726, 1962. https://doi.org/10.1214/aoms/1177704593
  • K. L. Chung, Markov Chains with Stationary Transition Probabilities, Springer, 1960. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-49686-8
  • E. V. Denardo, On Linear Programming in a Markov Decision Problem, Management Science 16(5):281–288, 1970. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.16.5.281
  • E. V. Denardo and B. L. Fox, Multichain Markov Renewal Programs, SIAM Journal on Applied Mathematics 16(3):468–487, 1968. https://doi.org/10.1137/0116038
  • A. S. Manne, Linear Programming and Sequential Decisions, Management Science 6(3):259–267, 1960. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.6.3.259
9 thms2 active usersReviewed
Dynamic ProgrammingLinear OptimizationMarkov Chain+1·Captain: mikedeng1

Linear Programming and Markov Decision Chains 1: A Pure Policy Read Off a Simplex-Optimal Solution of One Dual LP Is Average Optimal in Every Finite Multichain MDPResearch Paper

Motivation

A Markov decision chain with finitely many states and actions is the basic model of sequential decision making under uncertainty in operations research. Inventory control, maintenance, queueing control and many other problems reduce to it. Under the average reward criterion the decision maker optimizes the long-run reward per period. For the discounted criterion one linear program yields an optimal pure stationary policy (d'Epenoux 1960). For the average criterion, De Ghellinck (1960) and Manne (1960, DOI 10.1287/mnsc.6.3.259) gave linear programs for the unichain case, where every stationary policy has a single recurrent class. In a multichain model the optimal average reward may differ from state to state, and the unichain construction no longer applies.

Hordijk and Kallenberg (Management Science 25(4):352–362, 1979, DOI 10.1287/mnsc.25.4.352) proved that in the general multichain case an average optimal policy can be found by solving only one linear program. This mission formalizes that result, Theorem 7 of the paper, together with the chain of results its proof rests on.

Timeline, following the paper's introduction:

  • 1960: d'Epenoux introduces linear programming for the discounted case; De Ghellinck and Manne treat the unichain average case.
  • 1962: Blackwell (DOI 10.1214/aoms/1177704593) proves that some pure stationary policy is discounted-optimal for all discount factors near 1, and expands the discounted value near α=1\alpha = 1α=1.
  • 1968–1970: Denardo and Fox (DOI 10.1137/0116038) and Denardo (DOI 10.1287/mnsc.16.5.281) give the first analysis of linear programs for the multichain case. Derman's 1970 monograph streamlines it: in the worst case two linear programs and one search problem must be solved. Denardo and Fox record Bruce Miller's conjecture that the policy of Theorem 7 below is optimal.
  • 1979: Hordijk and Kallenberg prove the conjecture (Theorem 7), so one linear program suffices.

Setting

The state space is a finite nonempty set EEE. In state iii a finite nonempty set A(i)A(i)A(i) of actions is available; choosing a∈A(i)a \in A(i)a∈A(i) earns the reward riar_{ia}ria​ and moves the system to state jjj with probability piajp_{iaj}piaj​ (piaj≥0p_{iaj} \ge 0piaj​≥0, ∑jpiaj=1\sum_j p_{iaj} = 1∑j​piaj​=1). A policy RRR chooses actions at times t=1,2,…t = 1, 2, \dotst=1,2,…, possibly at random and using the whole history. For a policy RRR and an initial state iii,

φi(R)=lim inf⁡T→∞1T∑t=1T∑j∑aPR(Xt=j,Yt=a∣X1=i) rja\varphi_i(R) = \liminf_{T\to\infty}\frac1T\sum_{t=1}^T\sum_j\sum_a \mathbf P_R(X_t=j,Y_t=a\mid X_1=i)\,r_{ja}φi​(R)=T→∞liminf​T1​t=1∑T​j∑​a∑​PR​(Xt​=j,Yt​=a∣X1​=i)rja​

is the average expected reward, and φi=sup⁡Rφi(R)\varphi_i = \sup_R \varphi_i(R)φi​=supR​φi​(R) is the optimal one. A policy R∗R^*R∗ is average optimal if φi(R∗)=φi\varphi_i(R^*) = \varphi_iφi​(R∗)=φi​ for every i∈Ei \in Ei∈E. A decision rule fff picks f(i)∈A(i)f(i) \in A(i)f(i)∈A(i) in every state; f∞f^\inftyf∞ is the pure stationary policy that always applies fff. Its transition matrix is P(f)=(pif(i)j)P(f) = (p_{if(i)j})P(f)=(pif(i)j​) and its reward vector r(f)=(rif(i))r(f) = (r_{if(i)})r(f)=(rif(i)​). The α-discounted value viα(R)=∑t≥1αt−1∑j∑aPR(Xt=j,Yt=a∣X1=i) rjav_i^\alpha(R)=\sum_{t\ge1}\alpha^{t-1}\sum_j\sum_a\mathbf P_R(X_t=j,Y_t=a\mid X_1=i)\,r_{ja}viα​(R)=∑t≥1​αt−1∑j​∑a​PR​(Xt​=j,Yt​=a∣X1​=i)rja​ enters through Theorems 1, 3, 4 and 5.

Fix weights βj>0\beta_j > 0βj​>0 with ∑jβj=1\sum_j \beta_j = 1∑j​βj​=1. The dual program has a variable pair xia,yiax_{ia}, y_{ia}xia​,yia​ for every state iii and every a∈A(i)a \in A(i)a∈A(i):

max⁡∑i∑ariaxias.t.∑i∑a(δij−piaj)xia=0,∑axja+∑i∑a(δij−piaj)yia=βj,x,y≥0,\max \sum_i\sum_a r_{ia}x_{ia}\quad\text{s.t.}\quad \sum_i\sum_a(\delta_{ij}-p_{iaj})x_{ia}=0,\quad \sum_a x_{ja}+\sum_i\sum_a(\delta_{ij}-p_{iaj})y_{ia}=\beta_j,\quad x,y\ge0,maxi∑​a∑​ria​xia​s.t.i∑​a∑​(δij​−piaj​)xia​=0,a∑​xja​+i∑​a∑​(δij​−piaj​)yia​=βj​,x,y≥0,

for all j∈Ej \in Ej∈E. Its linear programming dual, the primal program, minimizes ∑jβjφ~j\sum_j\beta_j\tilde\varphi_j∑j​βj​φ~​j​ over superharmonic pairs (φ~,u~)(\tilde\varphi,\tilde u)(φ~​,u~): φ~i≥∑jpiajφ~j\tilde\varphi_i \ge \sum_j p_{iaj}\tilde\varphi_jφ~​i​≥∑j​piaj​φ~​j​ and φ~i+u~i≥ria+∑jpiaju~j\tilde\varphi_i + \tilde u_i \ge r_{ia} + \sum_j p_{iaj}\tilde u_jφ~​i​+u~i​≥ria​+∑j​piaj​u~j​ for all a∈A(i)a \in A(i)a∈A(i), i∈Ei \in Ei∈E. For a dual solution (x,y)(x, y)(x,y) put Ex={i∣∑axia>0}E_x = \{i \mid \sum_a x_{ia} > 0\}Ex​={i∣∑a​xia​>0}.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 7

Let (x,y)(x, y)(x,y) be an optimal solution of the dual program that is an extreme point of its feasible set, which is what the simplex method returns. Let fff be any decision rule with

xif(i)>0  (i∈Ex),yif(i)>0  (i∉Ex).x_{if(i)} > 0 \ \ (i \in E_x), \qquad y_{if(i)} > 0 \ \ (i \notin E_x).xif(i)​>0  (i∈Ex​),yif(i)​>0  (i∈/Ex​).

Then f∞f^\inftyf∞ is average optimal: φi(f∞)=φi\varphi_i(f^\infty) = \varphi_iφi​(f∞)=φi​ for every i∈Ei \in Ei∈E, the comparison running over all policies.

Milestones

In the order the proof uses them:

  1. Theorem 1 (Blackwell): some pure stationary f0∞f_0^\inftyf0∞​ is α-discounted optimal for all α near 1.
  2. Theorem 2a: φ(f∞)=P∗(f)r(f)\varphi(f^\infty) = P^*(f)r(f)φ(f∞)=P∗(f)r(f). The other clauses of Theorem 2 are Blackwell's Lemma 1(a), (d), referenced as published theorems.
  3. Theorem 3 (Blackwell): viα(f∞)−φi(f∞)/(1−α)→(D(f)r(f))iv_i^\alpha(f^\infty) - \varphi_i(f^\infty)/(1-\alpha) \to (D(f)r(f))_iviα​(f∞)−φi​(f∞)/(1−α)→(D(f)r(f))i​ as α↑1\alpha \uparrow 1α↑1.
  4. Theorem 4 (Derman): the policy of Theorem 1 is average optimal.
  5. Theorem 5: φ0=φ(f0∞)\varphi^0 = \varphi(f_0^\infty)φ0=φ(f0∞​) and u0=D(f0)r(f0)u^0 = D(f_0)r(f_0)u0=D(f0​)r(f0​) solve the two nested optimality equations.
  6. Proof of Theorem 6: (φ0,u0+Mφ0)(\varphi^0, u^0 + M\varphi^0)(φ0,u0+Mφ0) is superharmonic for some MMM.
  7. Theorem 6: φ\varphiφ is the smallest function that admits uuu with (φ,u)(\varphi, u)(φ,u) superharmonic.
  8. §3.2: (φ(f0∞),D(f0)r(f0)+Mφ(f0∞))(\varphi(f_0^\infty), D(f_0)r(f_0) + M\varphi(f_0^\infty))(φ(f0∞​),D(f0​)r(f0​)+Mφ(f0∞​)) is primal optimal for all large MMM.
  9. Proof of Theorem 7: ∑axja+∑ayja≥βj>0\sum_a x_{ja} + \sum_a y_{ja} \ge \beta_j > 0∑a​xja​+∑a​yja​≥βj​>0, so the rule always defines a policy; and every primal optimum has first component φ\varphiφ.
  10. Propositions 1–3: φ\varphiφ is P(f)P(f)P(f)-harmonic and the gain–bias equation holds on ExE_xEx​; ExE_xEx​ is closed under P(f)P(f)P(f); at an extreme optimal dual solution, the states outside ExE_xEx​ are transient under P(f)P(f)P(f).

Significance

Theorem 7 turns the multichain average-reward problem into one linear program and one pass over its solution. No unichain or communicating assumption is required, and neither the second linear program nor the search step of the earlier Denardo–Fox–Derman procedure is needed. The rule is local: any action with a positive xxx-variable, otherwise any action with a positive yyy-variable, gives an optimal policy. The paper's later results (Theorem 8, the correspondence between optimal dual solutions and optimal randomized stationary policies, and Theorem 10, on extreme points) build on the same program. Companion missions of this series formalize them.

The results are proved in the paper; no machine-checked proof of any of them is known. The formalization adds a machine-checked link between linear programming duality (complementary slackness, extreme points of polyhedra) and the limit theory of finite Markov chains (Cesàro limit matrices, transient states), over the history-dependent policy class of the published average-reward model.

Difficulty

The obvious argument reads fff off any optimal dual solution and uses complementary slackness to obtain φ=P(f)φ\varphi = P(f)\varphiφ=P(f)φ and φ+(I−P(f))u=r(f)\varphi + (I - P(f))u = r(f)φ+(I−P(f))u=r(f). The second equation holds only on ExE_xEx​, and outside ExE_xEx​ nothing controls the reward of fff. The argument closes only when E∖ExE \setminus E_xE∖Ex​ is transient under P(f)P(f)P(f), so that the stationary distribution of fff ignores those states. Transience is not a consequence of optimality. It uses extremality: an ergodic set inside E∖ExE\setminus E_xE∖Ex​ would make the corresponding yyy-columns of the constraint matrix linearly dependent. For a general optimal solution the paper proves optimality only of a randomized stationary policy built from (x,y)(x, y)(x,y) (its Theorem 8(b), a companion mission), not of a pure selection. The extremality hypothesis is therefore part of the statement.

Upstream of the linear program, Theorem 6 depends on Derman's theorem and Blackwell's expansion of the discounted value near α=1\alpha = 1α=1. Both compare against all history-dependent policies and need the full limit theory of P∗P^*P∗ and DDD.

Formalization scope

The model is the published MarkovDecisionProcesses.StationaryMDP (finite nonempty S, finite A, nonempty admissible sets, stochastic transitions) with history-dependent randomized policies AvgHRPolicy. φi(R)\varphi_i(R)φi​(R) is gainInf (the lim inf of the average of the first TTT expected rewards) and φi\varphi_iφi​ is optGainInf, a real supremum that is finite because rewards are bounded. P∗P^*P∗ and DDD are the published limitMatrix and deviationMatrix; the identities of Theorem 2 are the published Blackwell Lemma 1(a), (d). Conventions:

  • Average optimality is Hordijk and Kallenberg's φ(R∗)=φ\varphi(R^*) = \varphiφ(R∗)=φ, not the stronger Puterman criterion IsAverageOptimal in the published file.
  • The discounted value is the limit of the NNN-epoch discounted reward, defined by the same backward recursion as totalReward. "α near enough to 1" means some α0∈[0,1)\alpha_0 \in [0,1)α0​∈[0,1) such that the property holds on [α0,1)[\alpha_0, 1)[α0​,1).
  • Dual variables are indexed by the admissible pairs only (Pair M), so the feasible set lies in (Pair M → ℝ) × (Pair M → ℝ) and its extreme points are those of the paper's polyhedron.
  • "The simplex method is used" is encoded as "(x,y)(x, y)(x,y) is an extreme point of the feasible set" (Set.extremePoints). A goal without extremality is a different and unproved statement, and any version that quantifies over some fff instead of every fff obeying the rule is weaker than the paper's. Both are ruled out.
  • "Transient" is the negation of the published IsRecurrent. Maxima over A(i)A(i)A(i) and A0(i)A^0(i)A0(i) are stated as an upper bound plus attainment, so that A0(i)≠∅A^0(i) \ne \emptysetA0(i)=∅ is part of Theorem 5.

A complete development needs Cesàro limits of stochastic matrices, the deviation matrix, Abelian limits of discounted values, linear programming duality with complementary slackness, and the characterization of extreme points of {z≥0:Az=b}\{z \ge 0 : Az = b\}{z≥0:Az=b} by linear independence of the active columns. The last two are reusable well beyond this mission, as is the identification of gainInf of a stationary policy with P∗rP^*rP∗r. Contributions to any of them, including proofs of individual milestones, are welcome.

Selected references

  • A. Hordijk, L. C. M. Kallenberg, Linear Programming and Markov Decision Chains, Management Science 25(4):352–362, 1979. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.25.4.352
  • D. Blackwell, Discrete Dynamic Programming, Annals of Mathematical Statistics 33(2):719–726, 1962. https://doi.org/10.1214/aoms/1177704593
  • A. S. Manne, Linear Programming and Sequential Decisions, Management Science 6(3):259–267, 1960. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.6.3.259
  • E. V. Denardo, On Linear Programming in a Markov Decision Problem, Management Science 16(5):281–288, 1970. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.16.5.281
  • E. V. Denardo, B. L. Fox, Multichain Markov Renewal Programs, SIAM Journal on Applied Mathematics 16(3):468–487, 1968. https://doi.org/10.1137/0116038
  • J. G. Kemeny, J. L. Snell, Finite Markov Chains, Van Nostrand, 1960.
  • C. Derman, Finite State Markovian Decision Processes, Academic Press, 1970.
17 thms3 active usersReviewed
Operations ResearchProbabilityStochastic Systems·Captain: mikedeng1

Shock Models and Wear Processes IV: With a Random Threshold, Shock Survival Probabilities Are Submultiplicative for Every Damage Law Iff the Threshold Is NBUResearch Paper

Motivation

Reliability theory classifies life distributions by how they age. A device whose remaining life, once it has survived to age ttt, is stochastically shorter than the life of a new device is called new better than used (NBU). The NBU class, together with the classes IHR (increasing hazard rate) and IHRA (increasing hazard rate average), organizes much of the theory of maintenance and replacement: Marshall and Proschan showed that the NBU property is what makes certain replacement policies beneficial, and Barlow and Proschan's monographs build the statistical theory of reliability on these classes.

A question that runs through this literature is where such ageing properties come from physically. Esary, Marshall and Proschan (Ann. Probability 1973) answer it for shock models: a device is hit by shocks arriving in time as a Poisson process, each shock adds a random amount of damage, and the device fails when the accumulated damage exceeds its threshold. Section 4 of their paper treats a fixed threshold and shows that the life is IHRA for every damage law. Section 5, the subject of this mission, lets the threshold itself be random, which models the variation between individual items of a production lot. It then asks which ageing properties of the threshold law are inherited by the life distribution, and which are forced if the inheritance is to hold whatever the damage law.

Setting

All distributions are laws of non-negative random variables. For a distribution FFF on R\mathbb RR with F(z)=0F(z) = 0F(z)=0 for z<0z < 0z<0 (a damage law), F(k)F^{(k)}F(k) denotes the kkk-fold convolution of FFF, with F(0)F^{(0)}F(0) the point mass at 000; thus F(k)(x)=P{X1+⋯+Xk≤x}F^{(k)}(x) = P\{X_1 + \cdots + X_k \le x\}F(k)(x)=P{X1​+⋯+Xk​≤x} for independent Xi∼FX_i \sim FXi​∼F.

A threshold law is a distribution GGG with G(z)=0G(z) = 0G(z)=0 for z<0z < 0z<0; write Gˉ=1−G\bar G = 1 - GGˉ=1−G for its survival function. If the threshold Y∼GY \sim GY∼G is independent of the damages, the probability of surviving kkk shocks is

Pˉk=∫0∞F(k)(x) dG(x)=P{X1+⋯+Xk≤Y},k=0,1,…(5.1)\bar P_k = \int_0^\infty F^{(k)}(x)\, dG(x) = P\{X_1 + \cdots + X_k \le Y\}, \qquad k = 0, 1, \dots \tag{5.1}Pˉk​=∫0∞​F(k)(x)dG(x)=P{X1​+⋯+Xk​≤Y},k=0,1,…(5.1)

If shocks arrive as a Poisson process of rate λ>0\lambda > 0λ>0, the device's life distribution HHH has survival function

Hˉ(t)=∑k=0∞e−λt(λt)kk! Pˉk,t≥0.(5.2)\bar H(t) = \sum_{k=0}^\infty e^{-\lambda t}\frac{(\lambda t)^k}{k!}\,\bar P_k, \qquad t \ge 0. \tag{5.2}Hˉ(t)=k=0∑∞​e−λtk!(λt)k​Pˉk​,t≥0.(5.2)

A survival function Fˉ\bar FFˉ is NBU if Fˉ(t+x)≤Fˉ(x)Fˉ(t)\bar F(t + x) \le \bar F(x)\bar F(t)Fˉ(t+x)≤Fˉ(x)Fˉ(t) for all x,t≥0x, t \ge 0x,t≥0; it is IHR if Fˉ(x+t)/Fˉ(t)\bar F(x + t)/\bar F(t)Fˉ(x+t)/Fˉ(t) is non-increasing in ttt for each x>0x > 0x>0, and IHRA if [Fˉ(t)]1/t[\bar F(t)]^{1/t}[Fˉ(t)]1/t is non-increasing in t>0t > 0t>0. The discrete analogue of NBU for the sequence Pˉk\bar P_kPˉk​ is submultiplicativity, Pˉj+k≤PˉjPˉk\bar P_{j+k} \le \bar P_j \bar P_kPˉj+k​≤Pˉj​Pˉk​.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 5.3

For a threshold law GGG with G(z)=0G(z) = 0G(z)=0 for z<0z < 0z<0:

(∀F: Pˉj+k≤Pˉj Pˉk  ∀j,k≥0)  ⟺  Gˉ is NBU,\Big(\forall F:\ \bar P_{j+k} \le \bar P_j\,\bar P_k \ \ \forall j,k \ge 0\Big) \iff \bar G \text{ is NBU},(∀F: Pˉj+k​≤Pˉj​Pˉk​  ∀j,k≥0)⟺Gˉ is NBU,

the quantifier ranging over every damage law FFF; and if GGG is NBU, then for every damage law FFF and every λ>0\lambda > 0λ>0 the life distribution HHH of (5.2) is NBU.

Milestones

  1. Theorem 3.1 (3.5). For any sequence 1=Pˉ0≥Pˉ1≥⋯≥01 = \bar P_0 \ge \bar P_1 \ge \cdots \ge 01=Pˉ0​≥Pˉ1​≥⋯≥0 and λ>0\lambda > 0λ>0: if PˉjPˉk≥Pˉj+k\bar P_j \bar P_k \ge \bar P_{j+k}Pˉj​Pˉk​≥Pˉj+k​ for all j,kj, kj,k, then HHH of (2.1) is NBU.
  2. First display of the proof of Theorem 5.3. If GGG is NBU, then Pˉj+k≤PˉjPˉk\bar P_{j+k} \le \bar P_j \bar P_kPˉj+k​≤Pˉj​Pˉk​ for each damage law FFF.
  3. Second display of the proof of Theorem 5.3. If submultiplicativity holds for every FFF, then Gˉ(s+jxk)≤Gˉ(s) Gˉ(jxk)\bar G(s + j x_k) \le \bar G(s)\,\bar G(j x_k)Gˉ(s+jxk​)≤Gˉ(s)Gˉ(jxk​) for s>0s > 0s>0, xk=s/kx_k = s/kxk​=s/k, j=0,1,…j = 0, 1, \dotsj=0,1,….

Further items (not milestones)

Theorem 5.1 (the life is exponential for every FFF iff GGG is exponential) and Theorem 5.2 (b), (c) (an IHR threshold makes Pˉk1/k\bar P_k^{1/k}Pˉk1/k​ non-increasing for every FFF; non-increasing Pˉk1/k\bar P_k^{1/k}Pˉk1/k​ for every FFF forces GGG to be IHRA) are posed as companion statements from the same section.

Significance

Theorem 5.3 is a characterization: the NBU class is exactly the class of threshold laws for which the cumulative-damage mechanism preserves the discrete NBU property under every damage law. Combined with Theorem 3.1 (3.5), it gives a physical derivation of NBU life distributions: an item with an NBU random strength, subject to Poisson shocks with arbitrary i.i.d. non-negative damage, has an NBU life. Theorems 5.1 and 5.2 place the exponential and the IHR/IHRA classes in the same framework, and the authors record that whether an IHRA threshold suffices in Theorem 5.2 (b) is left unresolved.

The results are proved in the paper. No machine-checked version is known to exist; this mission produces one. A complete development also supplies reusable infrastructure: convolution powers of laws on [0,∞)[0, \infty)[0,∞) as Mathlib measures, Poisson mixtures of a sequence, and the ageing classes of p. 631 as predicates on survival functions.

Difficulty

The equivalence couples a property of one function, Gˉ\bar GGˉ, to a family of inequalities indexed by every damage law, and the left side is about convolutions while the right side is pointwise. Two points make the statement harder than it looks. First, (5.1) as printed is P{X1+⋯+Xk≤Y}P\{X_1 + \cdots + X_k \le Y\}P{X1​+⋯+Xk​≤Y}, whereas the paper's proof works with EGˉ(X1+⋯+Xk)=P{X1+⋯+Xk<Y}E\bar G(X_1 + \cdots + X_k) = P\{X_1 + \cdots + X_k < Y\}EGˉ(X1​+⋯+Xk​)=P{X1​+⋯+Xk​<Y}; the two agree only when F(k)F^{(k)}F(k) and GGG have no common discontinuities, and they can disagree as soon as F(k)F^{(k)}F(k) has an atom where GGG has one, a case the left side of the equivalence includes. A formal proof cannot invoke that convention. Second, the second sentence of the theorem passes through a Poisson series (5.2) whose terms involve the whole sequence Pˉk\bar P_kPˉk​, so the NBU property of HHH is a statement about a power series in ttt, not about any single Pˉk\bar P_kPˉk​.

Formalization scope

  • A distribution is a probability measure on R\mathbb RR; "F(z)=0F(z) = 0F(z)=0 for z<0z < 0z<0" is mass 000 on (−∞,0)(-\infty, 0)(−∞,0), and "G(0)=0G(0) = 0G(0)=0" (Theorems 5.1, 5.2) is mass 000 on (−∞,0](-\infty, 0](−∞,0]. F(k)F^{(k)}F(k) is the kkk-fold Measure.conv power with F(0)=δ0F^{(0)} = \delta_0F(0)=δ0​, and F(k)(x)F^{(k)}(x)F(k)(x) is the mass of (−∞,x](-\infty, x](−∞,x].
  • Pˉk\bar P_kPˉk​ is (5.1) as printed, ∫F(k)(x) dG(x)\int F^{(k)}(x)\,dG(x)∫F(k)(x)dG(x) over R\mathbb RR; since GGG is carried by [0,∞)[0, \infty)[0,∞) this is ∫0∞\int_0^\infty∫0∞​ including an atom of GGG at 000, which Theorem 5.3 allows. The paper's convention that F(k)F^{(k)}F(k) and GGG have no common discontinuities is not added as a hypothesis: the statements hold for (5.1) without it. The integrand is monotone with values in [0,1][0,1][0,1], so the Bochner integral is a genuine expectation.
  • "For all FFF" sits inside the equivalence of Theorem 5.3 and ranges over every probability measure on [0,∞)[0, \infty)[0,∞). Submultiplicativity for one fixed FFF is a different, weaker statement.
  • NBU and IHR are cross-multiplied, agreeing with the paper's ratio form wherever denominators are positive (the paper restricts variables to avoid zero denominators). NBU is on x,t≥0x, t \ge 0x,t≥0 exactly as in definition (v). Powers [Gˉ(t)]1/t[\bar G(t)]^{1/t}[Gˉ(t)]1/t and Pˉk1/k\bar P_k^{1/k}Pˉk1/k​ are real powers. "Decreasing" means non-increasing.
  • HHH is the series (2.1) as a function on R\mathbb RR, equal to 111 on (−∞,0)(-\infty, 0)(−∞,0); λ>0\lambda > 0λ>0 as in (1.1). In Theorem 3.1 (3.5) the non-negativity Pˉk≥0\bar P_k \ge 0Pˉk​≥0 is stated explicitly.
  • In Theorem 5.1 "exponential" allows rate 000 for HHH (the damage law δ0\delta_0δ0​ gives Hˉ≡1\bar H \equiv 1Hˉ≡1) and requires a positive rate for GGG (G(0)=0G(0) = 0G(0)=0 rules out the degenerate case Gˉ=0\bar G = 0Gˉ=0 on (0,∞)(0,\infty)(0,∞)).
  • A trivializing formalization is ruled out: the threshold-law quantifier is not restricted to a class where both sides are automatic, the integral cannot collapse to a default value, and the NBU predicate is the paper's on [0,∞)[0, \infty)[0,∞), not on (0,∞)(0, \infty)(0,∞) or a vacuous domain.

Contributions welcome: proofs of the milestones, a library for Poisson mixtures and convolution powers of laws on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞), and the extra items of §5.

Selected references

  • J. D. Esary, A. W. Marshall and F. Proschan, Shock Models and Wear Processes, The Annals of Probability 1(4), 627–649, 1973. https://doi.org/10.1214/aop/1176996891
  • R. E. Barlow and F. Proschan, Mathematical Theory of Reliability, Wiley, 1965; reprinted SIAM Classics in Applied Mathematics, 1996. https://doi.org/10.1137/1.9781611971194
  • Z. W. Birnbaum, J. D. Esary and A. W. Marshall, A Stochastic Characterization of Wear-Out for Components and Systems, The Annals of Mathematical Statistics 37(4), 816–825, 1966. https://doi.org/10.1214/aoms/1177699362
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Operations ResearchProbabilityStochastic Systems·Captain: mikedeng1

Shock Models and Wear Processes III: The First Passage Time of a Nondecreasing Markov Wear Process Above a Fixed Level Has an IHRA DistributionResearch Paper

Motivation

Reliability theory classifies life distributions by how they age. A device whose failure rate tends to increase over time is "wearing out", and the class of distributions with increasing hazard rate average (IHRA) is the one that is closed under forming coherent systems of independent components (Birnbaum, Esary and Marshall, 1966). This makes IHRA the natural ageing class for systems. It also raises a question: which physical failure mechanisms produce IHRA lives?

Esary, Marshall and Proschan's paper Shock Models and Wear Processes (Ann. Probability 1, 1973) answers this for two kinds of mechanism. In the first, damage arrives in discrete amounts at the epochs of a Poisson process of shocks. In the second, damage accumulates continuously. In both, the device fails when the accumulated damage first exceeds a fixed capacity. This mission covers the second kind: a wear process {Z(t),t≥0}\{Z(t), t \ge 0\}{Z(t),t≥0} and its first passage time above a level. The paper shows that the first passage time is IHRA under three qualitative conditions: wear starts at zero and only grows, the process is Markov, and accumulated wear and age make further wear more likely. Nothing else is assumed about the law of the wear.

A short timeline. Birnbaum, Esary and Marshall (1966) introduced the IHRA class and proved it is closed under coherent systems. Morey (1965) studied first passage times of wear processes under an extra monotonicity assumption. Esary, Marshall and Proschan (1973), §4, proved the IHRA property first for Poisson shocks with i.i.d. damages (Corollary 4.2, (4.7)), then for dependent damages (Lemma 4.1b, (4.7b)), and finally for continuous wear (Theorem 4.10).

Setting

Let (Ω,F,P)(\Omega, \mathcal F, P)(Ω,F,P) be a probability space. "Decreasing" means non-increasing throughout.

A survival function Fˉ\bar FFˉ is IHRA if t↦[Fˉ(t)]1/tt \mapsto [\bar F(t)]^{1/t}t↦[Fˉ(t)]1/t is decreasing on t>0t > 0t>0 (p. 631). For an exponential life, [Fˉ(t)]1/t[\bar F(t)]^{1/t}[Fˉ(t)]1/t is constant. IHRA says the average failure rate over [0,t][0, t][0,t] never decreases.

Dependent damages. Let X1,X2,…X_1, X_2, \dotsX1​,X2​,… be nonnegative random variables, the damages caused by successive shocks, and let Z0=0Z_0 = 0Z0​=0 and Zk=X1+⋯+XkZ_k = X_1 + \dots + X_kZk​=X1​+⋯+Xk​. The paper's conditions (p. 636) are:

  • (4.3) the conditional law of XkX_kXk​ given X1,…,Xk−1X_1, \dots, X_{k-1}X1​,…,Xk−1​ depends only on Zk−1Z_{k-1}Zk−1​;
  • (4.4) P{Xk≤u∣Zk−1=z}P\{X_k \le u \mid Z_{k-1} = z\}P{Xk​≤u∣Zk−1​=z} is decreasing in z≥0z \ge 0z≥0 (accumulated damage lowers resistance);
  • (4.5) P{Xk≤u∣Zk−1=z}≥P{Xk+1≤u∣Zk=z}P\{X_k \le u \mid Z_{k-1} = z\} \ge P\{X_{k+1} \le u \mid Z_k = z\}P{Xk​≤u∣Zk−1​=z}≥P{Xk+1​≤u∣Zk​=z} for z≥0z \ge 0z≥0 (later shocks are more severe).

Wear process. Z(t)Z(t)Z(t) is the wear accumulated in [0,t][0, t][0,t]. The conditions (pp. 640–641) are:

  • (4.8) Z(0)=0Z(0) = 0Z(0)=0 and Z(t+Δ)−Z(t)≥0Z(t + \Delta) - Z(t) \ge 0Z(t+Δ)−Z(t)≥0 for all t,Δ≥0t, \Delta \ge 0t,Δ≥0, with probability one;
  • (4.9) {Z(t),t≥0}\{Z(t), t \ge 0\}{Z(t),t≥0} is a Markov process;
  • (4.10) P{Z(t+Δ)−Z(t)≤u∣Z(t)=z}P\{Z(t + \Delta) - Z(t) \le u \mid Z(t) = z\}P{Z(t+Δ)−Z(t)≤u∣Z(t)=z} is decreasing in both zzz and ttt in the region t≥0t \ge 0t≥0, z≥0z \ge 0z≥0, Δ≥0\Delta \ge 0Δ≥0.

The first passage time above a level xxx is Tx=inf⁡{t:Z(t)>x}T_x = \inf\{t : Z(t) > x\}Tx​=inf{t:Z(t)>x}. Its survival function is Hˉx(t)=P{Tx>t}\bar H_x(t) = P\{T_x > t\}Hˉx​(t)=P{Tx​>t}, and Ft(x)=P{Z(t)≤x}F_t(x) = P\{Z(t) \le x\}Ft​(x)=P{Z(t)≤x} is the distribution function of the wear at time ttt.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 4.10 (p. 641)

If {Z(t),t≥0}\{Z(t), t \ge 0\}{Z(t),t≥0} satisfies (4.8), (4.9) and (4.10), then for every level xxx

t⟼[Hˉx(t)]1/t is decreasing on t>0,t \longmapsto \big[\bar H_x(t)\big]^{1/t} \text{ is decreasing on } t > 0,t⟼[Hˉx​(t)]1/t is decreasing on t>0,

that is, TxT_xTx​ has an IHRA distribution.

Milestones

  1. Lemma 4.1b (p. 637): under (4.3)–(4.5), [P{X1+⋯+Xk≤x}]1/k[P\{X_1 + \dots + X_k \le x\}]^{1/k}[P{X1​+⋯+Xk​≤x}]1/k is decreasing in k=1,2,…k = 1, 2, \dotsk=1,2,….
  2. Proof of Theorem 4.10, first claim (a): for Δ>0\Delta > 0Δ>0, the grid increments Xi=Z(iΔ)−Z((i−1)Δ)X_i = Z(i\Delta) - Z((i-1)\Delta)Xi​=Z(iΔ)−Z((i−1)Δ) satisfy (4.3)–(4.5).
  3. Proof of Theorem 4.10, first claim (b): [FkΔ(x)]1/(kΔ)[F_{k\Delta}(x)]^{1/(k\Delta)}[FkΔ​(x)]1/(kΔ) is decreasing in k=1,2,…k = 1, 2, \dotsk=1,2,….
  4. Proof of Theorem 4.10, second claim: [Fs(x)]1/s≥[Ft(x)]1/t[F_s(x)]^{1/s} \ge [F_t(x)]^{1/t}[Fs​(x)]1/s≥[Ft​(x)]1/t whenever 0<s≤t0 < s \le t0<s≤t.
  5. Proof of Theorem 4.10, third claim: Hˉx(t)=lim⁡ε↓0Ft+ε(x)\bar H_x(t) = \lim_{\varepsilon \downarrow 0} F_{t+\varepsilon}(x)Hˉx​(t)=limε↓0​Ft+ε​(x), under (4.8) alone.

An optional extra item states Corollary 4.2 (4.7b): Poisson shocks of rate λ>0\lambda > 0λ>0 with damages satisfying (4.3)–(4.5) give an IHRA life Hˉ(t)=∑ke−λt(λt)k/k!⋅P{Zk≤x}\bar H(t) = \sum_k e^{-\lambda t} (\lambda t)^k / k! \cdot P\{Z_k \le x\}Hˉ(t)=∑k​e−λt(λt)k/k!⋅P{Zk​≤x}.

Significance

The result. Theorem 4.10 derives an ageing property of a failure time from qualitative properties of the damage process alone: no distributional form, no stationarity and no independence of increments is assumed. Together with the closure of IHRA under coherent systems, this lets a reliability engineer conclude that a system built from components failing by wear has an IHRA life. Examples include processes with nonnegative stationary independent increments started at the origin, such as compound Poisson processes and infinitesimal renewal processes (p. 641). Lemma 4.1b is the discrete analogue: a sequence of probabilities Pˉk\bar P_kPˉk​ with Pˉk1/k\bar P_k^{1/k}Pˉk1/k​ decreasing is what Theorem 3.1 (3.4) needs to give an IHRA life under Poisson shocks.

Formalizing it. The results are proved in the paper. As far as we know none of them has been machine-checked. The formalization needs, and would make reusable, a statement of the Markov property for a continuous-time real process in terms of Mathlib's conditional expectation, versions of conditional distributions with monotonicity constraints, and the passage from a discrete-time grid to continuous time for first passage times. Each of these is a step a probabilist writes in one line and a proof assistant does not.

Difficulty

The paper's proof is short, but every sentence hides a measure-theoretic step. The first claim, that the grid increments satisfy (4.3)–(4.5), requires turning the Markov property and the monotonicity of the increment law into conditional laws of Xk+1X_{k+1}Xk+1​ given (X1,…,Xk)(X_1, \dots, X_k)(X1​,…,Xk​). Those conditional laws are defined only almost everywhere, and the monotonicity must be preserved along the way. Lemma 4.1b itself is an induction that integrates the monotonicity conditions against the law of ZkZ_kZk​. The extension from rational to arbitrary ratios s/ts/ts/t uses the monotonicity of paths. The identification of Hˉx(t)\bar H_x(t)Hˉx​(t) as a right limit of Ft+ε(x)F_{t+\varepsilon}(x)Ft+ε​(x) needs the pathwise reading of (4.8). The natural first idea, approximating ZZZ by a compound Poisson process, would add hypotheses the theorem does not have.

Formalization scope

All objects sit in the namespace ShockWear.WearProcess, in one definition file. The committed conventions:

  • Probability space. A measure pr with IsProbabilityMeasure. Time is R≥0\mathbb R_{\ge 0}R≥0​; Z:R≥0→Ω→RZ : \mathbb R_{\ge0} \to \Omega \to \mathbb RZ:R≥0​→Ω→R with every Z(t)Z(t)Z(t) measurable.
  • (4.8) is read pathwise. Almost every path has Z(0)=0Z(0) = 0Z(0)=0 and is nondecreasing. The paper's "for all t,Δ≥0t, \Delta \ge 0t,Δ≥0 with probability one" is ambiguous in quantifier order; this reading is the one used by the proof's equivalence "Tx>tT_x > tTx​>t iff Z(t+ε)≤xZ(t+\varepsilon) \le xZ(t+ε)≤x for some ε>0\varepsilon > 0ε>0".
  • (4.9) is the Markov property for the natural filtration σ(Z(r),r≤s)\sigma(Z(r), r \le s)σ(Z(r),r≤s): P(Z(t)∈B∣Fs)=P(Z(t)∈B∣Z(s))P(Z(t) \in B \mid \mathcal F_s) = P(Z(t) \in B \mid Z(s))P(Z(t)∈B∣Fs​)=P(Z(t)∈B∣Z(s)) a.s. for s≤ts \le ts≤t and Borel BBB.
  • Conditional probabilities are explicit versions. P{Xk+1≤u∣Zk=z}P\{X_{k+1} \le u \mid Z_k = z\}P{Xk+1​≤u∣Zk​=z} and P{Z(t+Δ)−Z(t)≤u∣Z(t)=z}P\{Z(t+\Delta) - Z(t) \le u \mid Z(t) = z\}P{Z(t+Δ)−Z(t)≤u∣Z(t)=z} are the values on (−∞,u](-\infty, u](−∞,u] of Markov kernels κ\kappaκ that agree almost everywhere with Mathlib's condDistrib. The monotonicity conditions (4.4), (4.5), (4.10) are imposed on these versions, on the paper's regions z≥0z \ge 0z≥0, t≥0t \ge 0t≥0. "Is decreasing in zzz" is read as "has a version decreasing in zzz".
  • Nonnegativity of damages is almost sure.
  • Index base. Lean's X i is the paper's Xi+1X_{i+1}Xi+1​, and the kernel κ k describes Xk+1X_{k+1}Xk+1​ given ZkZ_kZk​.
  • First passage time TxT_xTx​ takes values in [0,∞][0, \infty][0,∞] and may be infinite with positive probability; it is not assumed finite. Hˉx(t)=1\bar H_x(t) = 1Hˉx​(t)=1 for t<0t < 0t<0. The level xxx ranges over all reals.
  • Powers [ ⋅ ]1/t[\,\cdot\,]^{1/t}[⋅]1/t, [ ⋅ ]1/k[\,\cdot\,]^{1/k}[⋅]1/k, [ ⋅ ]1/(kΔ)[\,\cdot\,]^{1/(k\Delta)}[⋅]1/(kΔ) are real powers with real exponents.

Trivializing formalizations are ruled out: (4.9) and (4.10) are not replaced by independence or stationarity of increments, nor by a compound Poisson model. Those are examples (p. 641), not hypotheses. Monotonicity is never imposed on Mathlib's condDistrib itself, whose values off the support of Z(t)Z(t)Z(t) are unconstrained. A sorry-free local check confirms the hypotheses are satisfiable: the deterministic process Z(t)=tZ(t) = tZ(t)=t satisfies (4.8)–(4.10), and constant damages satisfy (4.3)–(4.5).

Contributions are welcome on any milestone. The reduction (milestone 2) and the induction of Lemma 4.1b are the substantial parts. Lemmas about versions of conditional distributions under Markov processes would be reusable well beyond this mission.

Selected references

  • J. D. Esary, A. W. Marshall and F. Proschan, Shock Models and Wear Processes, Ann. Probability 1(4) (1973) 627–649. https://doi.org/10.1214/aop/1176996891
  • Z. W. Birnbaum, J. D. Esary and A. W. Marshall, A Stochastic Characterization of Wear-out for Components and Systems, Ann. Math. Statist. 37 (1966) 816–825. https://doi.org/10.1214/aoms/1177699362
  • R. C. Morey, Stochastic Wear Processes, Technical Report ORC 65-16, Operations Research Center, University of California, Berkeley, 1965 (cited on p. 640 of Esary, Marshall and Proschan).
  • R. E. Barlow and F. Proschan, Statistical Theory of Reliability and Life Testing, Holt, Rinehart and Winston, 1975.
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Algorithmic Game TheoryComplexity TheoryLinear Optimization+1·Captain: mikedeng1

The Polynomial Hierarchy and a Simple Model for Competitive Analysis: Every Optimum of the (p+1)-Level Linear Game J'(F) Is Binary, with x(F) = 1 iff the Σ_p Sentence (3.3) HoldsResearch Paper

Why multi-level programs are hard

Multi-level programs model a hierarchy of decision makers: a leader commits to a decision, a follower optimises given it, a follower of the follower optimises given both, and so on. Bilevel programs are the standard model of Stackelberg competition, toll setting, network interdiction and many other leader–follower problems in operations research (Candler and Townsley 1982; Bard and Falk 1982). When every level has a linear criterion and the constraints are linear, each player's problem looks like a linear program, and it is natural to hope that the whole hierarchy is solvable in polynomial time.

R. G. Jeroslow's 1985 paper (Math. Programming 32, 146–164) shows that this hope fails at every level of the polynomial hierarchy: a (p+1)(p+1)(p+1)-level linear program with fixed criteria can encode the truth of a Σp\Sigma_pΣp​ quantified Boolean sentence. The result places multi-level linear programming in the polynomial hierarchy and is widely cited for the Σp\Sigma_pΣp​-hardness of such programs; NP-hardness of bilevel linear programs (Corollary 4.6) is its special case p=1p=1p=1.

Setting

A multi-level program has real variables x=(x1,…,xp)x=(x^1,\dots,x^p)x=(x1,…,xp), a feasible set S0S_0S0​ (a polyhedron {x:∑iAixi≥b}\{x: \sum_i A^ix^i\ge b\}{x:∑i​Aixi≥b} in the linear case), and players p,p−1,…,1p,p-1,\dots,1p,p−1,…,1 who move in that order; player iii controls xix^ixi and minimises a fixed linear criterion cixc^ixcix. The solution sets are defined from the last mover upwards: S1S_1S1​ is the set of x∈S0x\in S_0x∈S0​ at which player 1's criterion is minimal given the choices of all earlier movers, and in general SjS_{j}Sj​ keeps the points of Sj−1S_{j-1}Sj−1​ minimising cjxc^jxcjx among the points of Sj−1S_{j-1}Sj−1​ that agree with xxx on xj+1,…,xpx^{j+1},\dots,x^pxj+1,…,xp. The value is cpxc^pxcpx on SpS_pSp​, when Sp≠∅S_p\neq\emptysetSp​=∅. The sets SjS_jSj​ can be empty even when S0S_0S0​ is a nonempty polytope: the paper's four-level Example has S4=∅S_4=\emptysetS4​=∅ because S3S_3S3​ is not closed.

A propositional formula FFF over blocks of atoms X1,…,XpX_1,\dots,X_pX1​,…,Xp​ (block XkX_kXk​ has nkn_knk​ atoms) is encoded by the linear system LFL_FLF​: one variable x(G)∈[0,1]x(G)\in[0,1]x(G)∈[0,1] per non-atomic subformula, with the inequalities (3.1a)–(3.1c) for ∨\vee∨, ∧\wedge∧, ¬\neg¬. The quantifier of block XkX_kXk​ is Qk=∃Q_k=\existsQk​=∃ when p−kp-kp−k is even, so

(∃Xp)(∀Xp−1)⋯(Q1X1) [F(X1,…,Xp)=1](3.3)(\exists X_p)(\forall X_{p-1})\cdots(Q_1X_1)\,[F(X_1,\dots,X_p)=1] \qquad (3.3)(∃Xp​)(∀Xp−1​)⋯(Q1​X1​)[F(X1​,…,Xp​)=1](3.3)

is a Σp\Sigma_pΣp​ sentence.

The game J′(F)J'(F)J′(F) adds a bookkeeper, player 000, who moves last. Player k≥1k\ge1k≥1 controls the atoms of XkX_kXk​, and player 111 also controls auxiliary variables yyy; the bookkeeper controls the x(G)x(G)x(G), a variable uuu fixed to 111, and auxiliary variables zzz. Two gadgets, (4.1) and (4.6), let the bookkeeper and player 1 turn the linear criteria into the piecewise-linear functions Zk=1−x(F)+2∑jP(xkj)Z_k=1-x(F)+2\sum_jP(x_{kj})Zk​=1−x(F)+2∑j​P(xkj​) (or x(F)+…x(F)+\dotsx(F)+… for universal QkQ_kQk​) and Z1=(1−x(F))+fr(1−x(F))+10L∑jfr(x1j)+…Z_1=(1-x(F))+fr(1-x(F))+10L\sum_j fr(x_{1j})+\dotsZ1​=(1−x(F))+fr(1−x(F))+10L∑j​fr(x1j​)+…, where LLL is the length of FFF, fr(x)=min⁡{x,1−x}fr(x)=\min\{x,1-x\}fr(x)=min{x,1−x}, and P(x)=1P(x)=1P(x)=1 at x∈{0,1}x\in\{0,1\}x∈{0,1}, 222 otherwise.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 4.5 (p≥2p\ge2p≥2)

Let SSS be the set of optimal solutions Sp+1S_{p+1}Sp+1​ of J′(F)J'(F)J′(F). Then S≠∅S\neq\emptysetS=∅; at every optimum all atom variables and all x(G)x(G)x(G) are binary; and

x(F)=1  ⟺  (3.3) holds,value(J′(F))=2np+1−x(F).x(F)=1 \iff (3.3)\ \text{holds},\qquad \text{value}(J'(F)) = 2n_p+1-x(F).x(F)=1⟺(3.3) holds,value(J′(F))=2np​+1−x(F).

Moreover, when (3.3) holds, v∈Rnpv\in\mathbb R^{n_p}v∈Rnp​ is player ppp's block in some optimum iff vvv is binary and the Πp−1\Pi_{p-1}Πp−1​ sentence (4.17) holds at the truth valuation of vvv.

Milestones

In attack order: Lemma 3.1 (correctness of LFL_FLF​ on binary inputs); Lemma 4.1 (robustness of LFL_FLF​ near binary inputs); Lemmas 4.2 and 4.3 (the bottom two levels of a bounded linear multi-level program are solvable, via LP duality); the bookkeeper identities z=∣2y−x∣z=|2y-x|z=∣2y−x∣ and z=fr(x)z=fr(x)z=fr(x) in S1S_1S1​; (4.2) and (4.3) (player 1's and player kkk's responses on the gadgets); Lemma 4.4 (the induction on kkk with the higher blocks fixed). Companion theorems: Corollary 4.6 (the bilevel case: value 000 iff (∃X1)F(\exists X_1)F(∃X1​)F), the §2 Example, and Proposition 3.2 (the pure binary game J(F)J(F)J(F)).

Significance

The theorem shows that deciding the value of a (p+1)(p+1)(p+1)-level linear program with fixed criteria is at least as hard as deciding Σp\Sigma_pΣp​ sentences, so known exact algorithms for multi-level linear programs cannot be expected to run in polynomial time once p≥2p\ge2p≥2, and even recognising an optimal move is Πp−1\Pi_{p-1}Πp−1​-hard. The bilevel case is an early NP-hardness proof for bilevel linear programming, and the construction (a bookkeeper player and absolute-value gadgets that force binary choices) is a template for hardness reductions to leader–follower problems.

The result is proved in the paper but, to our knowledge, has no machine-checked formalization. A formal development makes precise the solution concept (conditional rather than lexicographic minimisation), which the literature states in several inequivalent ways, and checks a proof whose printed version leaves cases to the reader (the ∧\wedge∧, ¬\neg¬ cases of Lemma 4.1, the universal cases of Lemma 4.4) and applies Lemma 4.3 to a feasible set that is unbounded (the (4.1) variable zzz has no upper bound).

Difficulty

The obvious argument, "each existential player picks a satisfying assignment and each universal player a counterexample", works for the pure binary game J(F)J(F)J(F) (Proposition 3.2) but not for continuous variables: a player may choose fractional values, and the solution sets of a multi-level program need not exist (the §2 Example). The work is in showing that every player is forced to binary choices. Player 1's fractional choices are ruled out only through the robustness estimate of Lemma 4.1 with the weight 10L10L10L, and the existence of optimal solutions at every level has to be established along the induction, since it fails for general three-level programs.

Formalization scope

  • Players are indexed from 000; player iii optimises at level i+1i+1i+1. In J′(F)J'(F)J′(F) the players are 0,…,p0,\dots,p0,…,p as in the paper; in the §2 Example and in J(F)J(F)J(F) the paper's player iii is index i−1i-1i−1. Blocks are 0-based: block k : Fin p is the paper's Xk+1X_{k+1}Xk+1​, owned by player k+1k+1k+1 in J′(F)J'(F)J′(F).
  • solSet encodes the conditional minimisation of (3.7), p. 152. HasValue N w requires SN≠∅S_N\neq\emptysetSN​=∅; the value +∞+\infty+∞ is not modelled.
  • Formulas use ¬,∧,∨\neg,\wedge,\vee¬,∧,∨ (the paper rewrites →\to→ as ¬G1∨G2\neg G_1\vee G_2¬G1​∨G2​); the length counts atoms and connectives. Data are real; the paper's rationality assumption plays no role in the statements.
  • The bookkeeper controls the x(G)x(G)x(G) and has criterion "+z+z+z on (4.1) gadgets, −z-z−z on (4.6) gadgets, and +x(G)+x(G)+x(G) for each non-atomic subformula," as stated on p. 155. The (4.1) variable zzz has no upper bound. The constant 111 of (4.4)/(4.7) is the variable uuu with u=1u=1u=1.
  • "Binary value, zero iff F∈BpF\in B_pF∈Bp​" is stated exactly: the value is 2np+1−x(F)2n_p+1-x(F)2np​+1−x(F), and x(F)=1x(F)=1x(F)=1 iff (3.3). "All optimal solutions are binary" covers the atom variables and the x(G)x(G)x(G), not the gadget variable zzz, which equals 222 at y=1y=1y=1, ξ=0\xi=0ξ=0.
  • The goal is not trivialisable: its first conjunct asserts that the optimal set is nonempty, which fails for general multi-level programs (the §2 Example), so the remaining conjuncts are not vacuous.

A complete development needs a linear-programming duality argument for Lemma 4.2 (Mathlib has IsExtreme and Set.extremePoints; LP duality is on the platform as a single-level theorem) and an induction over the levels of the game. The definitions MultilevelProgram, solSet and the formula encoding LSys are reusable for other complexity results on hierarchical optimisation. Proofs of any milestone, including the generic Lemmas 4.2–4.3 and the formula Lemmas 3.1 and 4.1, are welcome independently.

Selected references

  • R. G. Jeroslow, The polynomial hierarchy and a simple model for competitive analysis, Mathematical Programming 32 (1985) 146–164. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01586088
  • W. Candler and R. Townsley, A linear two-level programming problem, Computers & Operations Research 9 (1982) 59–76. https://doi.org/10.1016/0305-0548(82)90006-5
  • J. F. Bard and J. E. Falk, An explicit solution to the multi-level programming problem, Computers & Operations Research 9 (1982) 77–100. https://doi.org/10.1016/0305-0548(82)90007-7
  • L. J. Stockmeyer, The polynomial-time hierarchy, Theoretical Computer Science 3 (1976) 1–22. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-3975(76)90061-X
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Numerical AnalysisOperations ResearchOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Global Convergence Properties of Conjugate Gradient Methods for Optimization I: Conjugate Gradient Methods with |β_k| ≤ β_k^FR Are Globally Convergent under Strong Wolfe Line SearchesResearch Paper

Motivation

Nonlinear conjugate gradient methods minimize a smooth function fff of nnn variables using only function values, gradients and a few vectors of storage. They are the method of choice when nnn is so large that quasi-Newton matrices cannot be stored, and they remain a standard component of large-scale optimization software. Their convergence theory is delicate: the classical results assume exact line searches, while practical codes accept any steplength satisfying inexpensive inexact conditions.

Gilbert and Nocedal (INRIA RR-1268, 1990; journal version SIAM J. Optim. 2 (1992)) organized the global convergence theory of these methods around a single device and proved two families of results. This mission covers the first: every conjugate gradient method whose parameter βk\beta_kβk​ is bounded in absolute value by the Fletcher–Reeves value converges under the strong Wolfe line search.

Timeline. Fletcher and Reeves (1964) and Polak and Ribière (1969) introduced the two best-known choices of βk\beta_kβk​. Zoutendijk (1970) and Wolfe (1969, 1971) established the summability condition now called Zoutendijk's condition. Al-Baali (1985) proved that the Fletcher–Reeves method with the strong Wolfe line search and σ2<12\sigma_2 < \tfrac12σ2​<21​ generates descent directions and satisfies lim inf⁡∥gk∥=0\liminf\|g_k\| = 0liminf∥gk​∥=0. Touati-Ahmed and Storey (1990) treated nonnegative hybrids. Gilbert and Nocedal (1990) extended Al-Baali's theorem to every βk\beta_kβk​ with ∣βk∣≤βkFR|\beta_k| \le \beta_k^{FR}∣βk​∣≤βkFR​, which admits negative values and yields a convergent modification of the Polak–Ribière method.

Setting

Let EEE be a finite-dimensional real inner product space and f:E→Rf : E \to \mathbb Rf:E→R continuously differentiable, with gradient g=∇fg = \nabla fg=∇f for that inner product. Starting from x1x_1x1​, the method generates

d1=−g1,dk=−gk+βkdk−1 (k≥2),xk+1=xk+αkdk,d_1 = -g_1,\qquad d_k = -g_k + \beta_k d_{k-1}\ (k\ge 2),\qquad x_{k+1} = x_k + \alpha_k d_k,d1​=−g1​,dk​=−gk​+βk​dk−1​ (k≥2),xk+1​=xk​+αk​dk​,

where gk=g(xk)g_k = g(x_k)gk​=g(xk​), βk\beta_kβk​ is a scalar and αk>0\alpha_k > 0αk​>0 a steplength found by a one-dimensional search. The Fletcher–Reeves and Polak–Ribière scalars are

βkFR=∥gk∥2∥gk−1∥2,βkPR=⟨gk,gk−gk−1⟩∥gk−1∥2.\beta_k^{FR} = \frac{\|g_k\|^2}{\|g_{k-1}\|^2},\qquad \beta_k^{PR} = \frac{\langle g_k, g_k - g_{k-1}\rangle}{\|g_{k-1}\|^2}.βkFR​=∥gk−1​∥2∥gk​∥2​,βkPR​=∥gk−1​∥2⟨gk​,gk​−gk−1​⟩​.

Assumptions 2.1: the level set L={x:f(x)≤f(x1)}\mathcal L = \{x : f(x) \le f(x_1)\}L={x:f(x)≤f(x1​)} is bounded, and on an open neighbourhood N\mathcal NN of L\mathcal LL the gradient is Lipschitz: ∥g(x)−g(x~)∥≤L∥x−x~∥\|g(x) - g(\tilde x)\| \le L\|x - \tilde x\|∥g(x)−g(x~)∥≤L∥x−x~∥.

A steplength satisfies the Wolfe conditions with 0<σ1<σ2<10 < \sigma_1 < \sigma_2 < 10<σ1​<σ2​<1 if

f(xk+αkdk)≤f(xk)+σ1αk⟨gk,dk⟩,⟨g(xk+αkdk),dk⟩≥σ2⟨gk,dk⟩,f(x_k + \alpha_k d_k) \le f(x_k) + \sigma_1\alpha_k\langle g_k, d_k\rangle,\qquad \langle g(x_k+\alpha_k d_k), d_k\rangle \ge \sigma_2\langle g_k, d_k\rangle,f(xk​+αk​dk​)≤f(xk​)+σ1​αk​⟨gk​,dk​⟩,⟨g(xk​+αk​dk​),dk​⟩≥σ2​⟨gk​,dk​⟩,

and the strong Wolfe conditions if the second inequality is replaced by ∣⟨g(xk+αkdk),dk⟩∣≤−σ2⟨gk,dk⟩|\langle g(x_k+\alpha_k d_k), d_k\rangle| \le -\sigma_2\langle g_k, d_k\rangle∣⟨g(xk​+αk​dk​),dk​⟩∣≤−σ2​⟨gk​,dk​⟩. The angle θk\theta_kθk​ between −gk-g_k−gk​ and dkd_kdk​ is given by cos⁡θk=−⟨gk,dk⟩/(∥gk∥∥dk∥)\cos\theta_k = -\langle g_k, d_k\rangle/(\|g_k\|\|d_k\|)cosθk​=−⟨gk​,dk​⟩/(∥gk​∥∥dk​∥), and the Zoutendijk condition is ∑k≥1cos⁡2θk∥gk∥2<∞\sum_{k\ge1}\cos^2\theta_k\|g_k\|^2 < \infty∑k≥1​cos2θk​∥gk​∥2<∞.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3.2

Under Assumptions 2.1, for any method of the above form with

∣βk∣≤βkFR(k≥2)|\beta_k| \le \beta_k^{FR}\quad (k \ge 2)∣βk​∣≤βkFR​(k≥2)

and steplengths satisfying the strong Wolfe conditions with 0<σ1<σ2<120 < \sigma_1 < \sigma_2 < \tfrac120<σ1​<σ2​<21​,

lim inf⁡k→∞∥gk∥=0.\liminf_{k\to\infty}\|g_k\| = 0 .k→∞liminf​∥gk​∥=0.

The sequence βk\beta_kβk​ is arbitrary within the bound; the statement contains no constants.

Milestones

  • Theorem 2.1 (i) (Zoutendijk): for any iteration xk+1=xk+αkdkx_{k+1} = x_k + \alpha_k d_kxk+1​=xk​+αk​dk​ with descent directions and Wolfe steps, ∑k≥1cos⁡2θk∥gk∥2<∞\sum_{k\ge1}\cos^2\theta_k\|g_k\|^2 < \infty∑k≥1​cos2θk​∥gk​∥2<∞.
  • Lemma 3.1: under ∣βk∣≤βkFR|\beta_k| \le \beta_k^{FR}∣βk​∣≤βkFR​ and the strong Wolfe curvature condition with σ2<12\sigma_2 < \tfrac12σ2​<21​, every dkd_kdk​ is a descent direction and
−∑j=0k−1σ2j≤⟨gk,dk⟩∥gk∥2≤−2+∑j=0k−1σ2j.-\sum_{j=0}^{k-1}\sigma_2^j \le \frac{\langle g_k, d_k\rangle}{\|g_k\|^2} \le -2 + \sum_{j=0}^{k-1}\sigma_2^j .−j=0∑k−1​σ2j​≤∥gk​∥2⟨gk​,dk​⟩​≤−2+j=0∑k−1​σ2j​.
  • (3.5): there are c1,c2>0c_1, c_2 > 0c1​,c2​>0 with c1∥gk∥/∥dk∥≤cos⁡θk≤c2∥gk∥/∥dk∥c_1\|g_k\|/\|d_k\| \le \cos\theta_k \le c_2\|g_k\|/\|d_k\|c1​∥gk​∥/∥dk​∥≤cosθk​≤c2​∥gk​∥/∥dk​∥.

Further statements

Theorem 2.1 (ii) (the same conclusion for an ideal line search that does no worse than the first stationary point along dkd_kdk​) and the convergence of the hybrid method (3.7), βk=max⁡(−βkFR,min⁡(βkPR,βkFR))\beta_k = \max(-\beta_k^{FR}, \min(\beta_k^{PR}, \beta_k^{FR}))βk​=max(−βkFR​,min(βkPR​,βkFR​)).

Significance

Theorem 3.2 shows that descent and global convergence of Fletcher–Reeves-type methods do not depend on the exact formula for βk\beta_kβk​, only on the bound ∣βk∣≤βkFR|\beta_k| \le \beta_k^{FR}∣βk​∣≤βkFR​. Its main consequence is the hybrid method (3.7), which keeps the Polak–Ribière choice whenever it lies in [−βkFR,βkFR][-\beta_k^{FR}, \beta_k^{FR}][−βkFR​,βkFR​], and so retains the practical efficiency of Polak–Ribière while inheriting the convergence guarantee of Fletcher–Reeves. Lemma 3.1 also shows that, under these conditions, descent need not be enforced by the line search.

The results are proved in the paper. To our knowledge none of them, nor Zoutendijk's theorem for general iterations, has a machine-checked proof in Lean; Mathlib has no theory of line search methods. A formalization would provide a reusable Zoutendijk theorem for any descent method with Wolfe steps, and a verified convergence statement for the conjugate gradient methods used in practice.

Difficulty

The obvious route to convergence of a descent method is to show cos⁡θk\cos\theta_kcosθk​ bounded away from zero and apply Zoutendijk's condition. For conjugate gradient methods this fails: dkd_kdk​ accumulates previous directions and cos⁡θk\cos\theta_kcosθk​ can tend to zero. The argument must instead control the growth of ∥dk∥\|d_k\|∥dk​∥, which requires bounding ⟨gk,dk−1⟩\langle g_k, d_{k-1}\rangle⟨gk​,dk−1​⟩ through the line search, and this in turn requires knowing that every dkd_kdk​ is a descent direction with ⟨gk,dk⟩\langle g_k, d_k\rangle⟨gk​,dk​⟩ comparable to ∥gk∥2\|g_k\|^2∥gk​∥2. The threshold σ2<12\sigma_2 < \tfrac12σ2​<21​ is exactly what keeps the geometric series in these bounds below 222; the result fails without it.

Formalization scope

All items live in the namespace NonlinCG.FRBound. The space is a finite-dimensional real inner product space E (the paper uses "the scalar product used to compute the gradient"), and gradient f is the gradient for that product. Conventions committed to:

  • Indexing follows the paper: sequences ℕ → E, used from index 1; index 0 is never constrained.
  • Smoothness: every statement assumes fff globally C1C^1C1, from (1.1) "f is smooth", in addition to Assumptions 2.1 (bounded level set; C1C^1C1 and Lipschitz gradient on an open neighbourhood N\mathcal NN of L\mathcal LL, with L>0L > 0L>0).
  • Steplengths are positive, as in the paper's line searches.
  • βk\beta_kβk​ is a free sequence constrained by ∣βk∣≤βkFR|\beta_k| \le \beta_k^{FR}∣βk​∣≤βkFR​, not the Fletcher–Reeves formula. Fixing βk=βkFR\beta_k = \beta_k^{FR}βk​=βkFR​ would state Al-Baali's theorem instead.
  • Division: βFR\beta^{FR}βFR, βPR\beta^{PR}βPR, cos⁡θk\cos\theta_kcosθk​ are Lean divisions (value 0 on a zero denominator). Theorem 3.2 does not assume gk≠0g_k \ne 0gk​=0; Lemma 3.1 and (3.5) assume it, since the paper divides by ∥gk∥2\|g_k\|^2∥gk​∥2 there and descent is impossible at gk=0g_k = 0gk​=0.
  • Zoutendijk's sum is the summability of ⟨gk,dk⟩2/∥dk∥2\langle g_k, d_k\rangle^2/\|d_k\|^2⟨gk​,dk​⟩2/∥dk​∥2, which equals cos⁡2θk∥gk∥2\cos^2\theta_k\|g_k\|^2cos2θk​∥gk​∥2 under descent.
  • liminf is stated as: for every ε>0\varepsilon > 0ε>0 and KKK there is k≥Kk \ge Kk≥K with ∥gk∥<ε\|g_k\| < \varepsilon∥gk​∥<ε.
  • (3.5) asserts existence of the constants only, as the paper does.

The goal does not assume Zoutendijk's condition or descent: both are consequences (Theorem 2.1 and Lemma 3.1) and assuming either would remove part of the theorem's content. The hypotheses are jointly satisfiable (for f(x)=x2/2f(x) = x^2/2f(x)=x2/2 on R\mathbb RR, x1=1x_1 = 1x1​=1, βk=0\beta_k = 0βk​=0, αk=0.9\alpha_k = 0.9αk​=0.9, σ1=0.1\sigma_1 = 0.1σ1​=0.1, σ2=0.25\sigma_2 = 0.25σ2​=0.25), so the goal is not vacuous.

Needed infrastructure: line-search conditions, the descent lemma for functions with Lipschitz gradient on a set, and summability arguments for ∑∥dk∥−2\sum\|d_k\|^{-2}∑∥dk​∥−2. Zoutendijk's theorem is reusable for any descent method. Proofs of any item, and alternative arguments, are welcome.

Selected references

  • J. C. Gilbert, J. Nocedal, Global convergence properties of conjugate gradient methods for optimization, INRIA Rapport de Recherche 1268, 1990. https://hal.inria.fr/inria-00075291 ; SIAM J. Optim. 2(1) (1992) 21–42, https://doi.org/10.1137/0802003
  • M. Al-Baali, Descent property and global convergence of the Fletcher–Reeves method with inexact line search, IMA J. Numer. Anal. 5 (1985) 121–124. https://doi.org/10.1093/imanum/5.1.121
  • R. Fletcher, C. M. Reeves, Function minimization by conjugate gradients, Comput. J. 7 (1964) 149–154. https://doi.org/10.1093/comjnl/7.2.149
  • P. Wolfe, Convergence conditions for ascent methods, SIAM Rev. 11 (1969) 226–235. https://doi.org/10.1137/1011036
  • D. Touati-Ahmed, C. Storey, Efficient hybrid conjugate gradient techniques, J. Optim. Theory Appl. 64 (1990) 379–397. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00939455
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Bandit AlgorithmsDynamic ProgrammingOperations Research+1·Captain: mikedeng1

Bandit Processes and Dynamic Allocation Indices: A Policy Is Optimal If and Only If It Almost Surely Continues a Bandit Process of Maximal Dynamic Allocation IndexResearch Paper

Motivation

The multi-armed bandit problem asks how to share effort sequentially among several independent projects, each of which evolves only while it is worked on. It models the scheduling of jobs on a single machine, the order in which to explore candidate sites, sequential clinical trials and the allocation of research effort among competing projects. Before 1972 the problem had no general solution: dynamic programming over the joint state of all projects is intractable as soon as there are more than a few of them.

J. C. Gittins and D. M. Jones (1974) announced, and Gittins (1979) set out in full, a solution of a striking form: each project can be assigned a number depending only on its own current state, its dynamic allocation index (DAI, now the Gittins index), and it is optimal to work on a project whose index is largest.

Timeline. Gittins and Jones presented the index result at the European Meeting of Statisticians in 1972 (proceedings 1974). Gittins (1979) gave the general discrete-time formulation, stated the Forwards Induction Theorem and the DAI Theorem without proof, and proved the attainment Lemma of its Section 4. Whittle (1980) gave a dynamic-programming proof through the retirement formulation, Weber (1992) the prevailing-charge interchange argument, and Tsitsiklis (1994) a short inductive proof. Gittins, Glazebrook and Weber (2011) is the standard monograph; Lattimore and Szepesvári (2020, Chapter 35) give a measure-theoretic treatment on general state spaces.

Setting

A bandit process DDD is a Markov chain x(0),x(1),…x(0), x(1), \dotsx(0),x(1),… on a measurable state space Θ\ThetaΘ with transition kernel PPP. Applying the continuation control at process time ttt earns the discounted reward atR(x(t))a^t R(x(t))atR(x(t)), with 0<a<10<a<10<a<1, and moves the chain one step; the freezing control leaves the state unchanged and earns nothing. For a stopping time τ\tauτ of the chain (possibly infinite) write

Rτ(D,x)=E{∑t=0τ−1atR(x(t)) ∣ x(0)=x},Wτ(D,x)=E{∑t=0τ−1at ∣ x(0)=x}.R_\tau(D,x)=E\Big\{\sum_{t=0}^{\tau-1}a^tR(x(t))\,\Big|\,x(0)=x\Big\},\qquad W_\tau(D,x)=E\Big\{\sum_{t=0}^{\tau-1}a^t\,\Big|\,x(0)=x\Big\}.Rτ​(D,x)=E{t=0∑τ−1​atR(x(t))​x(0)=x},Wτ​(D,x)=E{t=0∑τ−1​at​x(0)=x}.

The dynamic allocation index of DDD in state xxx is the largest reward per unit of discounted time obtainable by continuing for at least one step:

ν(D,x)=sup⁡τ>0ντ(D,x),ντ(D,x)=Rτ(D,x)Wτ(D,x).(2)\nu(D,x)=\sup_{\tau>0}\nu_\tau(D,x),\qquad \nu_\tau(D,x)=\frac{R_\tau(D,x)}{W_\tau(D,x)}. \tag{2}ν(D,x)=τ>0sup​ντ​(D,x),ντ​(D,x)=Wτ​(D,x)Rτ​(D,x)​.(2)

A simple family of alternative bandit processes consists of kkk bandit processes. At each stage n=0,1,2,…n=0,1,2,\dotsn=0,1,2,… a policy chooses exactly one of them to continue, possibly at random and as a function of the whole past; the others are frozen. A policy is optimal if it attains the supremum of the total expected discounted reward over all policies.

The Lean development uses the published objects markovChainMeasure P x (the chain law), IsPositiveStoppingTime, stoppedRatio P r α τ x (ντ\nu_\tauντ​), gittinsIndex P r α x (ν\nuν), MarkovBanditPolicy k S, markovBanditMeasure P π x n (the law of the first nnn stages) and markovBanditDiscountedValue P r α π x (the total expected discounted reward), with aaa written α and RRR written r.

Formalization targets

Goal: the DAI Theorem (Section 3, p. 154)

For every policy π\piπ and initial state vector xxx,

Vπ(x)=sup⁡π′Vπ′(x)  ⟺  ∀n, a.s. under the play of π from x:  πn({i:ν(xi(n))=max⁡jν(xj(n))})=1.V_\pi(x)=\sup_{\pi'}V_{\pi'}(x)\iff \forall n,\ \text{a.s. under the play of }\pi\text{ from }x:\ \ \pi_n\Big(\big\{i:\nu(x_i(n))=\max_j\nu(x_j(n))\big\}\Big)=1 .Vπ​(x)=π′sup​Vπ′​(x)⟺∀n, a.s. under the play of π from x:  πn​({i:ν(xi​(n))=jmax​ν(xj​(n))})=1.

Milestones

  1. Section 4, Lemma (p. 154). For Θ0={y:ν(D,y)<ν(D,x)}\Theta_0=\{y:\nu(D,y)<\nu(D,x)\}Θ0​={y:ν(D,y)<ν(D,x)} and τ\tauτ the first t≥1t\ge1t≥1 with x(t)∈Θ0x(t)\in\Theta_0x(t)∈Θ0​,
ντ(D,x)=ν(D,x).\nu_\tau(D,x)=\nu(D,x).ντ​(D,x)=ν(D,x).
  1. The "if" half of the DAI Theorem. A policy that selects a process of maximal index on every history is optimal: the published BanditAlgorithm.gittins_index_theorem, already Proved.
  2. Section 4, Corollary 1 (p. 155). For the MMM-horizon index νM(D,x)=sup⁡0<τ≤Mντ(D,x)\nu^M(D,x)=\sup_{0<\tau\le M}\nu_\tau(D,x)νM(D,x)=sup0<τ≤M​ντ​(D,x) (5), the rule that stops at the first t∈{1,…,M−1}t\in\{1,\dots,M-1\}t∈{1,…,M−1} with νM−t(D,x(t))<νM(D,x)\nu^{M-t}(D,x(t))<\nu^M(D,x)νM−t(D,x(t))<νM(D,x), and at MMM otherwise, attains νM(D,x)\nu^M(D,x)νM(D,x).

Significance

The result. The DAI Theorem replaces a dynamic program on the product of kkk state spaces by kkk one-dimensional optimal stopping problems. The "only if" half says more than that the index rule is one optimal policy: it characterizes every optimal policy, so any rule that departs from the index on a set of positive probability loses reward. The Lemma identifies the stopping rule that attains the index, which is how indices are computed in practice, and Corollary 1 is the finite-horizon version on which the paper's numerical algorithm (Section 7) rests.

Formalizing it. The sufficiency half is formalized: BanditAlgorithm.gittins_index_theorem (Lattimore–Szepesvári Theorem 35.9) is Proved on the platform, together with gittins_index_policy_dominates, gittins_stopping_ratio_le_index and gittins_epsilon_optimal_stopping. The attainment Lemma is Proved only for countable state spaces with bounded rewards (AllocationIndices.optimal_stopping_set, Gittins–Glazebrook–Weber Lemma 2.2), and the necessity half is on no platform item. This mission asks for the Lemma on general standard Borel state spaces with integrable rewards, the finite-horizon Corollary 1, and the full equivalence. The Forwards Induction Theorem of p. 153, which needs superprocesses and forwards induction policies, is outside its scope.

Difficulty

The "only if" direction is the new content, and it does not follow from the sufficiency theorem: knowing that one index policy is optimal says nothing about a policy that sometimes plays a lower-index process. The deviation must be shown to cost a strictly positive amount whenever it happens with positive probability, which requires a strict comparison that survives discounting, ties in the index and infinite stopping times. A second obstacle is measure-theoretic. On a general state space the index is a supremum over uncountably many stopping times, its measurability is not available, and the Lemma's stopping rule is a stopping time only if {y:ν(D,y)<ν(D,x)}\{y:\nu(D,y)<\nu(D,x)\}{y:ν(D,y)<ν(D,x)} is measurable; the arguments of the countable case, which treat each state separately, do not transfer.

Formalization scope

All objects are the published discounted kkk-armed Markov bandit of Def_GittinsIndex and the stopping-time quantities of Def_AllocationIndices_Index; time is indexed from 000, stopping times are N∪{∞}\mathbb N\cup\{\infty\}N∪{∞}-valued and adapted to the coordinate filtration, and the index is the real supremum over stopping times τ≥1\tau\ge1τ≥1. The explicit readings committed to are:

  • "Optimal" means attaining sup⁡π′Vπ′(x)\sup_{\pi'}V_{\pi'}(x)supπ′​Vπ′​(x) from the given initial state vector, over all randomized history-dependent policies; this supremum is finite because the values are bounded uniformly in the policy under the integrability hypothesis.
  • "At each stage … almost always" means: for every stage nnn, almost surely under the law of the first nnn stages of π\piπ from xxx, the selection kernel puts mass one on the processes of maximal current index. Requiring the index rule on every history would make "only if" false.
  • "The supremum of the total expected reward is finite" (p. 151) is read as Ex∑tat∣R(x(t))∣<∞E_x\sum_t a^t|R(x(t))|<\inftyEx​∑t​at∣R(x(t))∣<∞ for every state xxx.
  • "ν(D,⋅)\nu(D,\cdot)ν(D,⋅) is an X\mathcal XX-measurable function" (p. 151) is an explicit hypothesis of the Lemma and of the goal; the measurability of every νm(D,⋅)\nu^m(D,\cdot)νm(D,⋅) is a hypothesis of Corollary 1.
  • "The supremum is attained by setting Θ0\Theta_0Θ0​" means that the first hitting time of Θ0\Theta_0Θ0​ from time 111 on is a positive stopping time whose ratio equals the index.
  • The state space is standard Borel (the paper asks only for measurable singletons), and all processes share one kernel and one reward function; a family of different processes is encoded on the disjoint union of their state spaces.

A trivializing formalization is ruled out: the goal is not stated for index policies on every history (which would only restate the referenced theorem), the index is the published supremum over stopping times rather than a one-step reward or a finite-horizon quantity, competitors are not restricted to Markov or deterministic policies, and the Lemma's stopping rule starts at time 111, so it never stops at once. A one-point state space satisfies all hypotheses together and admits a policy.

Useful infrastructure, reusable beyond this mission: measurability of the Gittins index on standard Borel spaces, a measurable selection of a maximal-index arm, and an interchange argument for kkk-armed Markov bandits on general state spaces. Proofs of any milestone, and of either half of the goal, are welcome.

Selected references

  • J. C. Gittins, Bandit Processes and Dynamic Allocation Indices, J. R. Statist. Soc. B 41(2), 148–177, 1979. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2517-6161.1979.tb01068.x
  • J. C. Gittins and D. M. Jones, A dynamic allocation index for the sequential design of experiments, in Progress in Statistics (J. Gani et al., eds.), North-Holland, 241–266, 1974.
  • P. Whittle, Multi-armed bandits and the Gittins index, J. R. Statist. Soc. B 42(2), 143–149, 1980. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2517-6161.1980.tb01111.x
  • R. Weber, On the Gittins index for multiarmed bandits, Ann. Appl. Probab. 2(4), 1024–1033, 1992. https://doi.org/10.1214/aoap/1177005588
  • J. N. Tsitsiklis, A short proof of the Gittins index theorem, Ann. Appl. Probab. 4(1), 194–199, 1994. https://doi.org/10.1214/aoap/1177005207
  • J. C. Gittins, K. D. Glazebrook and R. Weber, Multi-armed Bandit Allocation Indices, 2nd ed., Wiley, 2011. https://doi.org/10.1002/9780470980033
  • T. Lattimore and C. Szepesvári, Bandit Algorithms, Cambridge University Press, 2020, Chapter 35. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781108571401
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CombinatoricsLinear OptimizationOperations Research·Captain: mikedeng1

Some Polyhedra Related to Combinatorial Problems I: A Minimizing Vertex of the Corner Polyhedron Gives an Optimal Integer Solution When the Right-Hand Side Lies Deep in the Basis ConeResearch Paper

Motivation

An integer program in standard form, max⁡c⋅x\max c\cdot xmaxc⋅x subject to Ax=bAx=bAx=b, x≥0x\ge 0x≥0, xxx integer, is easy to state and hard to solve. Its linear programming relaxation is solved by the simplex method, which ends at an optimal basis BBB. The difference between the two problems is the integrality of xxx, and R. E. Gomory's 1969 paper Some polyhedra related to combinatorial problems (Linear Algebra Appl. 2, 451–558, doi:10.1016/0024-3795(69)90017-2) measures that difference with a finite Abelian group. Dropping only the nonnegativity of the basic variables leaves a problem whose feasible set has a simple structure: its convex hull is the corner polyhedron, and its integer points are the solutions of an equation in the group Zm/BZm\mathbb Z^m/B\mathbb Z^mZm/BZm.

The first section of the paper uses this to explain when the integer program reduces to the group problem. Its asymptotic theorem says that if bbb lies far enough inside the cone where BBB is LP-optimal, then an optimal solution of the group problem gives an optimal integer solution. Gomory first proved this in 1965 (On the relation between integer and noninteger solutions to linear programs, PNAS 53, 260–265, doi:10.1073/pnas.53.2.260) by a counting argument on group solutions. The 1969 paper proves it again through the geometry of the corner polyhedron. The vertices of that polyhedron are irreducible, and an irreducible point is small. This is the version formalized here.

Setting

Let A=(B,N)A=(B,N)A=(B,N) be an integer m×(m+n)m\times(m+n)m×(m+n) matrix, with BBB a nonsingular m×mm\times mm×m matrix (the first mmm columns) and NNN the m×nm\times nm×n matrix of the remaining columns N1,…,NnN_1,\dots,N_nN1​,…,Nn​. As on p. 452 of the paper, AAA contains an m×mm\times mm×m unit matrix. Let b∈Zmb\in\mathbb Z^mb∈Zm and c=(cB,cN)∈Rm+nc=(c_B,c_N)\in\mathbb R^{m+n}c=(cB​,cN​)∈Rm+n. The integer program (2) is

max⁡ c⋅xsubject toAx=b, x≥0, x integer.\max\ c\cdot x\quad\text{subject to}\quad Ax=b,\ x\ge 0,\ x\ \text{integer}.max c⋅xsubject toAx=b, x≥0, x integer.

The relative prices are cN∗=−cN+cBB−1Nc_N^*=-c_N+c_BB^{-1}NcN∗​=−cN​+cB​B−1N, with components cm+i∗c^*_{m+i}cm+i∗​. BBB is an optimal LP basis when B−1b≥0B^{-1}b\ge0B−1b≥0 and every cm+i∗≥0c^*_{m+i}\ge0cm+i∗​≥0.

The group is G=M(I)/M(B)\mathcal G=M(I)/M(B)G=M(I)/M(B), where M(I)=ZmM(I)=\mathbb Z^mM(I)=Zm and M(B)M(B)M(B) is the lattice of integer combinations of the columns of BBB. Let fff be the quotient map. G\mathcal GG is finite of order D=∣det⁡B∣D=|\det B|D=∣detB∣. Let N\mathcal NN be the set of nonzero elements among fN1,…,fNnfN_1,\dots,fN_nfN1​,…,fNn​, and put g0=fbg_0=fbg0​=fb. The group equation is

∑g∈Nt(g)⋅g=g0,t(g)∈Z≥0,\sum_{g\in\mathcal N}t(g)\cdot g=g_0,\qquad t(g)\in\mathbb Z_{\ge0},g∈N∑​t(g)⋅g=g0​,t(g)∈Z≥0​,

and P(G,N,g0)P(\mathcal G,\mathcal N,g_0)P(G,N,g0​) is the convex hull of its solutions in RN\mathbb R^{\mathcal N}RN. A nonnegative integer ttt is irreducible if any two integer vectors s,rs,rs,r with 0≤s,r≤t0\le s,r\le t0≤s,r≤t and ∑s(g)⋅g=∑r(g)⋅g\sum s(g)\cdot g=\sum r(g)\cdot g∑s(g)⋅g=∑r(g)⋅g are equal.

The group costs are c∗(g)=min⁡i: fNi=gcm+i∗c^*(g)=\min_{i:\,fN_i=g}c^*_{m+i}c∗(g)=mini:fNi​=g​cm+i∗​. Problem (8) minimizes ∑gc∗(g)t(g)\sum_g c^*(g)t(g)∑g​c∗(g)t(g) over the solutions of the group equation. A corresponding vertex of a point t∗t^*t∗ (Remark 1) is a nonnegative integer xN∗x_N^*xN∗​ with three properties: t∗(g)=∑i: fNi=gxm+i∗t^*(g)=\sum_{i:\,fN_i=g}x^*_{m+i}t∗(g)=∑i:fNi​=g​xm+i∗​; at most one positive xm+i∗x^*_{m+i}xm+i∗​ per group element; and xm+i∗=0x^*_{m+i}=0xm+i∗​=0 when fNi=0ˉfN_i=\bar0fNi​=0ˉ. It uses only least cost columns when xm+i∗>0x^*_{m+i}>0xm+i∗​>0 only if cm+i∗=c∗(fNi)c^*_{m+i}=c^*(fN_i)cm+i∗​=c∗(fNi​).

The cone KB={y∈Rm:B−1y≥0}K_B=\{y\in\mathbb R^m:B^{-1}y\ge0\}KB​={y∈Rm:B−1y≥0} is where BBB is LP-optimal. KB(d)K_B(d)KB​(d) is the set of its points at Euclidean distance at least ddd from its frontier, and lmax⁡l_{\max}lmax​ is the largest Euclidean length of a column NiN_iNi​.

Formalization targets

Goal: THEOREM 4 (p. 462)

If b∈KB(lmax⁡(D−1))b\in K_B\bigl(l_{\max}(D-1)\bigr)b∈KB​(lmax​(D−1)), t∗t^*t∗ is a vertex of P(G,N,fb)P(\mathcal G,\mathcal N,fb)P(G,N,fb) minimizing (8), and xN∗x_N^*xN∗​ is a corresponding vertex using only least cost columns, then

x∗=(B−1(b−NxN∗), xN∗) is an optimal integer solution of (2).x^*=\bigl(B^{-1}(b-Nx_N^*),\ x_N^*\bigr)\ \text{is an optimal integer solution of (2)}.x∗=(B−1(b−NxN∗​), xN∗​) is an optimal integer solution of (2).

Milestones

  1. THEOREM 1 (p. 459): an irreducible ttt satisfies ∏g∈N(1+t(g))≤∣G∣\prod_{g\in\mathcal N}(1+t(g))\le|\mathcal G|∏g∈N​(1+t(g))≤∣G∣.
  2. p. 459: ∣M(I)/M(B)∣=∣det⁡B∣|M(I)/M(B)|=|\det B|∣M(I)/M(B)∣=∣detB∣.
  3. THEOREM 2 (p. 460): every vertex of P(G,N,g0)P(\mathcal G,\mathcal N,g_0)P(G,N,g0​) is an irreducible integer point.
  4. Proof of THEOREM 4 (p. 462): an irreducible ttt has ∑gt(g)≤∣G∣−1\sum_g t(g)\le|\mathcal G|-1∑g​t(g)≤∣G∣−1.
  5. THEOREM 3 (p. 461): a corresponding vertex of a minimizing vertex is optimal for (2) whenever B−1(b−NxN∗)≥0B^{-1}(b-Nx_N^*)\ge0B−1(b−NxN∗​)≥0.
  6. Proof of THEOREM 4: ∥NxN∗∥≤lmax⁡(D−1)\|Nx_N^*\|\le l_{\max}(D-1)∥NxN∗​∥≤lmax​(D−1).
  7. Proof of THEOREM 4: y∈KB(d)y\in K_B(d)y∈KB​(d) and ∥v∥≤d\|v\|\le d∥v∥≤d imply y−v∈KBy-v\in K_By−v∈KB​.
  8. Display (10), p. 464: the optimal x∗x^*x∗ of THEOREM 4 satisfies ∏i=1n(1+xm+i∗)≤D\prod_{i=1}^n(1+x^*_{m+i})\le D∏i=1n​(1+xm+i∗​)≤D.

Significance

THEOREM 4 explains why integer programs with large right-hand sides are often easy. For bbb outside a band of width lmax⁡(D−1)l_{\max}(D-1)lmax​(D−1) along the boundary of the cone KBK_BKB​, the integer optimum is the LP solution B−1bB^{-1}bB−1b plus a correction that depends only on the class of bbb modulo the lattice of BBB. That correction is periodic in bbb and can be tabulated once for the DDD group elements. The vertex form adds a structural statement: the correction can be read off a vertex of the corner polyhedron, so the faces and vertices of corner polyhedra (the subject of the rest of the paper) bear directly on integer programming. Display (10) shows such optimal solutions are small: their nonbasic parts satisfy ∏(1+xm+i)≤D\prod(1+x_{m+i})\le D∏(1+xm+i​)≤D.

All results here are proved in the paper. None of them is formalized yet. The 1965 version of the asymptotic theorem, posed as THEOREM 1 of the mission on Gomory (1965), is in the same family of statements. Its hypothesis is that the group solution is optimal; here the hypothesis is that it is a vertex of P(G,N,g0)P(\mathcal G,\mathcal N,g_0)P(G,N,g0​). Its counting lemma (a short optimal group solution) and its bound ∥Ny∥≤(D−1)l\|Ny\|\le(D-1)l∥Ny∥≤(D−1)l have counterparts in milestones 4 and 6.

Difficulty

An optimal solution of the group problem need not be short. Group solutions can be made longer without changing their cost (add a zero-cost cycle), and a long nonbasic part xNx_NxN​ can push b−NxNb-Nx_Nb−NxN​ out of the cone KBK_BKB​, making xBx_BxB​ negative. The goal must therefore use the vertex hypothesis. Vertices are irreducible (THEOREM 2), and irreducibility bounds their size through a pigeonhole count in the finite group (THEOREM 1). The formal work is spread across three settings: the convex geometry of the hull of an infinite integer set, the arithmetic of the quotient Zm/BZm\mathbb Z^m/B\mathbb Z^mZm/BZm and its order, and the linear algebra connecting B−1B^{-1}B−1, the cone KBK_BKB​ and its frontier.

Formalization scope

Vectors on N\mathcal NN are functions on the subtype of a Finset of the group. Integer solutions are N\mathbb NN-valued, and P(G,N,g0)P(\mathcal G,\mathcal N,g_0)P(G,N,g0​) is convexHull ℝ of their real images. THEOREMS 1 and 2 are stated for an arbitrary finite Abelian group and any finite N\mathcal NN not containing 000, as in the paper. The integer program uses the basis as the first mmm columns, Fin m ⊕ Fin n. B−1B^{-1}B−1 is the real matrix inverse, and every statement assumes det⁡B≠0\det B\ne0detB=0. Optimality of xxx means feasibility plus c⋅y≤c⋅xc\cdot y\le c\cdot xc⋅y≤c⋅x for every feasible integer yyy; no supremum is taken. The loose phrases of the paper are read as follows.

  • "Vertex" means an extreme point.
  • "Every vertex is irreducible" means every vertex is the image of an integer solution, and that solution is irreducible.
  • "Optimal linear programming basis" means B−1b≥0B^{-1}b\ge0B−1b≥0 and c∗≥0c^*\ge0c∗≥0.
  • "Corresponding vertex x∗x^*x∗ of Px(B,N,b)P_x(B,N,b)Px​(B,N,b)" means conditions (i)–(iii) of Remark 1, which the paper calls easily verified, taken as the definition.
  • "Minimizing (8)" means minimizing over the integer solutions of the group equation.
  • "Euclidean distance from the frontier" is explicit: ∑kvk2\sqrt{\sum_k v_k^2}∑k​vk2​​, frontier in the usual topology, so KB(0)=KBK_B(0)=K_BKB​(0)=KB​.

The printed slip on p. 462 (∑(1+t∗(g))\sum(1+t^*(g))∑(1+t∗(g)) for THEOREM 1's product) is corrected in the Lean. Dropping the vertex hypothesis from the goal is not a valid formalization (the statement becomes false in general), and neither is defining irreducibility with real r,sr,sr,s (THEOREM 1 then fails). The existence of a minimizing vertex, which the paper takes for granted, is not posed.

A complete development needs the finiteness and order of Zm/BZm\mathbb Z^m/B\mathbb Z^mZm/BZm (Mathlib's AddSubgroup.index_eq_natAbs_det), extreme points of convex hulls (extremePoints_convexHull_subset), and an argument that a closed cone with yyy deep inside it contains the ball around yyy. The group-polyhedron definitions and THEOREMS 1–2 apply to any finite Abelian group and are reusable beyond this mission. Proofs of any milestone are welcome independently.

Selected references

  • R. E. Gomory, Some polyhedra related to combinatorial problems, Linear Algebra and Its Applications 2 (1969), 451–558. https://doi.org/10.1016/0024-3795(69)90017-2
  • R. E. Gomory, On the relation between integer and noninteger solutions to linear programs, Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci. USA 53 (1965), 260–265. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.53.2.260
  • R. E. Gomory, Faces of an integer polyhedron, Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci. USA 57 (1967), 16–18. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.57.1.16
  • B. L. van der Waerden, Modern Algebra, English translation of the 2nd German edition, Ungar, New York, 1949–1950 (computation of fff, cited p. 456).
11 thms1 active userReviewed
Convex OptimizationOperations ResearchOptimization+1·Captain: mikedeng1

Loss Networks 2: The Erlang Fixed Point Is E_j = 1 − exp(−y_j) for the Unique Optimum y of the Strictly Convex Revised Dual ProblemResearch Paper

Motivation

A loss network is a model of a circuit-switched network: telephone networks, and more generally any system in which a request seizes several resources at once and is lost if any of them is unavailable. Exact loss probabilities in such networks are given by a product-form distribution over a state space whose size grows exponentially with the number of routes, so practitioners compute an approximation instead: the Erlang fixed point, also called the reduced-load approximation. It pretends that links block independently, computes the traffic offered to each link after thinning by the other links, and applies Erlang's single-link formula link by link. Reduced-load approximations of this kind recur throughout §§3–4 of Kelly 1991, where they appear as limits of networks with fixed and with alternative routing.

An approximation defined by a fixed point equation raises an immediate question: does the equation have exactly one solution? Under fixed routing it does, and Kelly's Theorem 3.7 (Ann. Appl. Probab. 1991, p. 338, citing Kelly 1986, reference [33] of the paper) proves it by identifying the fixed point with the optimum of a strictly convex program, the revised dual problem. The convex characterization is specific to fixed routing; the paper notes (p. 337) that for networks with dynamic routing and control nonuniquely determined behaviour can occur.

Setting

There are JJJ links, link jjj having Cj≥1C_j \ge 1Cj​≥1 circuits, and a finite set of routes rrr. A call on route rrr uses Ajr∈Z+A_{jr} \in \mathbb Z_+Ajr​∈Z+​ circuits of link jjj, and calls on route rrr arrive as a Poisson stream of rate νr>0\nu_r > 0νr​>0.

Erlang's formula (1.1) gives the blocking probability of a single link with CCC circuits offered Poisson traffic of intensity ν\nuν:

E(ν,C)=νCC![∑n=0Cνnn!]−1.E(\nu, C) = \frac{\nu^C}{C!}\Big[\sum_{n=0}^{C} \frac{\nu^n}{n!}\Big]^{-1}.E(ν,C)=C!νC​[n=0∑C​n!νn​]−1.

The Erlang fixed point equations (3.1)–(3.2) for the vector of link blocking probabilities (E1,…,EJ)(E_1, \dots, E_J)(E1​,…,EJ​) are

Ej=E(ρj,Cj),ρj=(1−Ej)−1∑rAjr νr∏i(1−Ei)Air,j=1,…,J.E_j = E(\rho_j, C_j), \qquad \rho_j = (1 - E_j)^{-1} \sum_r A_{jr}\,\nu_r \prod_i (1 - E_i)^{A_{ir}}, \qquad j = 1, \dots, J.Ej​=E(ρj​,Cj​),ρj​=(1−Ej​)−1r∑​Ajr​νr​i∏​(1−Ei​)Air​,j=1,…,J.

The utilization function U(y,C)U(y, C)U(y,C) is defined by the implicit relation (3.4),

U(−log⁡(1−E(ν,C)), C)=ν (1−E(ν,C)),ν≥0:U\big(-\log(1 - E(\nu, C)),\, C\big) = \nu\,\big(1 - E(\nu, C)\big), \qquad \nu \ge 0:U(−log(1−E(ν,C)),C)=ν(1−E(ν,C)),ν≥0:

the mean number of busy circuits on a single link whose blocking probability is 1−e−y1 - e^{-y}1−e−y.

The revised dual problem (3.5) is

minimize∑rνrexp⁡(−∑jyjAjr)+∑j∫0yjU(z,Cj) dzsubject to y≥0,\text{minimize} \quad \sum_r \nu_r \exp\Big(-\sum_j y_j A_{jr}\Big) + \sum_j \int_0^{y_j} U(z, C_j)\,dz \qquad \text{subject to } y \ge 0,minimizer∑​νr​exp(−j∑​yj​Ajr​)+j∑​∫0yj​​U(z,Cj​)dzsubject to y≥0,

and its stationarity conditions (3.6) are

∑rAjr νrexp⁡(−∑iyiAir)=U(yj,Cj),j=1,…,J.\sum_r A_{jr}\,\nu_r \exp\Big(-\sum_i y_i A_{ir}\Big) = U(y_j, C_j), \qquad j = 1, \dots, J.r∑​Ajr​νr​exp(−i∑​yi​Air​)=U(yj​,Cj​),j=1,…,J.

The revised dual differs from the dual problem (2.3) of §2, whose optimum gives the limiting blocking probabilities of a large network, only in its last term: ∑jyjCj\sum_j y_j C_j∑j​yj​Cj​ becomes ∑j∫0yjU(z,Cj) dz\sum_j \int_0^{y_j} U(z, C_j)\,dz∑j​∫0yj​​U(z,Cj​)dz.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3.7

The revised dual problem (3.5) has an optimum yyy, every optimum equals yyy, and

E∈[0,1]J solves (3.1)–(3.2)  ⟺  Ej=1−exp⁡(−yj) for every j.E \in [0,1]^J \text{ solves (3.1)–(3.2)} \iff E_j = 1 - \exp(-y_j) \text{ for every } j.E∈[0,1]J solves (3.1)–(3.2)⟺Ej​=1−exp(−yj​) for every j.

The goal states the characterization, not only the existence and uniqueness of the fixed point: the solution is 1−e−y1 - e^{-y}1−e−y for the optimum yyy of (3.5).

Milestones (p. 338, in the order the argument uses them)

  1. (3.4) defines a function: ν↦−log⁡(1−E(ν,C))\nu \mapsto -\log(1 - E(\nu, C))ν↦−log(1−E(ν,C)) is a continuous strictly increasing bijection of [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞) onto itself for C≥1C \ge 1C≥1, UUU satisfies (3.4), and U≥0U \ge 0U≥0.
  2. y↦U(y,C)y \mapsto U(y, C)y↦U(y,C) is strictly increasing on [0,∞)[0, \infty)[0,∞).
  3. y↦∫0yU(z,C) dzy \mapsto \int_0^y U(z, C)\,dzy↦∫0y​U(z,C)dz is strictly convex, and so is the objective of (3.5) on y≥0y \ge 0y≥0.
  4. (3.5) has exactly one optimum.
  5. A vector y≥0y \ge 0y≥0 is optimal for (3.5) if and only if it satisfies (3.6).
  6. A solution of (3.1)–(3.2) in [0,1]J[0,1]^J[0,1]J has all Ej<1E_j < 1Ej​<1; and for y≥0y \ge 0y≥0, Ej=1−e−yjE_j = 1 - e^{-y_j}Ej​=1−e−yj​ solves (3.1)–(3.2) if and only if yyy satisfies (3.6).

Significance

The theorem turns a nonlinear system of JJJ equations into a smooth strictly convex minimization over the nonnegative orthant. Uniqueness of the fixed point follows at once, and the program gives a computational handle: any convex-minimization method computes the Erlang fixed point, without relying on the convergence of repeated substitution. The comparison with the dual problem (2.3) also explains the approximation: (3.6) relaxes the conditions (2.7), which force a link's carried traffic to equal its capacity before it can block, into a smooth relation in which blocking grows with carried traffic as Erlang's formula prescribes (Remark 3.8).

On Prove2Me, existence and uniqueness of the fixed point alone is already the Proved theorem KellyStochasticNetworks.erlang_fixed_point_unique (Kelly–Yudovina, Stochastic Networks, Theorem 3.20), referenced by this mission. Also referenced: KellyStochasticNetworks.erlang_strictMono (Proved: ν↦E(ν,C)\nu \mapsto E(\nu, C)ν↦E(ν,C) and ν↦ν(1−E(ν,C))\nu \mapsto \nu(1 - E(\nu, C))ν↦ν(1−E(ν,C)) are strictly increasing for C≥1C \ge 1C≥1) and KellyStochasticNetworks.erlang_mean_busy_circuits (Proved: the mean number of busy circuits is ν(1−E(ν,C))\nu(1 - E(\nu, C))ν(1−E(ν,C)), the reading of UUU as a utilization). What this mission adds is the revised dual problem itself, the utilization function UUU, and the identification of the fixed point with the optimum of (3.5); none of these is formalized on the platform.

Difficulty

The function UUU is defined only implicitly, through the inverse of ν↦−log⁡(1−E(ν,C))\nu \mapsto -\log(1 - E(\nu, C))ν↦−log(1−E(ν,C)), so every property of the objective of (3.5) passes through properties of Erlang's formula: monotonicity, continuity, and the limit E(ν,C)→1E(\nu, C) \to 1E(ν,C)→1 as ν→∞\nu \to \inftyν→∞. Differentiating ∫0yU\int_0^{y} U∫0y​U needs continuity of UUU, which must be derived from the inverse.

The paper's sentence "strictly convex: it thus has a unique minimum" covers only uniqueness. Existence of a minimizer on the unbounded set y≥0y \ge 0y≥0 is a separate fact, a growth estimate for the integral terms, and it is part of milestone 4. The first term of (3.5) is not strictly convex when AAA has rank less than JJJ, so strict convexity must come from the separable integral terms. Finally, optimality over y≥0y \ge 0y≥0 yields only one-sided conditions at coordinates with yj=0y_j = 0yj​=0; that (3.6) is an equality there uses U(0,C)=0U(0, C) = 0U(0,C)=0.

Formalization scope

Lean namespace KellyLossNetworks.RevisedDual. Links are Fin J, routes Fin R, the incidence matrix is A : Fin J → Fin R → ℕ, rates ν : Fin R → ℝ, capacities C : Fin J → ℕ, following the published Kelly–Yudovina definitions. Every statement assumes νr>0\nu_r > 0νr​>0 and Cj≥1C_j \ge 1Cj​≥1; the paper uses both without stating them, and a link with Cj=0C_j = 0Cj​=0 makes (3.4) meaningless, since E(ν,0)=1E(\nu, 0) = 1E(ν,0)=1.

Erlang's formula is the published KellyStochasticNetworks.erlang and the fixed point equations (3.1)–(3.2) are the published KellyStochasticNetworks.ErlangFixedPoint, whose factor (1−Ej)−1(1 - E_j)^{-1}(1−Ej​)−1 is Lean's total inverse; milestone 6 shows that no solution in [0,1]J[0,1]^J[0,1]J reaches Ej=1E_j = 1Ej​=1. Solutions are sought in [0,1]J[0,1]^J[0,1]J, as on p. 338.

UUU is defined by choice: U(y,C)=ν(1−E(ν,C))U(y, C) = \nu(1 - E(\nu, C))U(y,C)=ν(1−E(ν,C)) for a ν≥0\nu \ge 0ν≥0 with −log⁡(1−E(ν,C))=y-\log(1 - E(\nu, C)) = y−log(1−E(ν,C))=y, and 000 if none exists. For C≥1C \ge 1C≥1, y≥0y \ge 0y≥0 the ν\nuν is unique, and that (3.4) holds is milestone 1, a theorem, not an axiom built into the definition. Values at y<0y < 0y<0 or C=0C = 0C=0 are placeholders that no statement uses. The integral in (3.5) is the interval integral ∫0yj\int_0^{y_j}∫0yj​​. An optimum of (3.5) is a y≥0y \ge 0y≥0 whose objective value is at most that of every z≥0z \ge 0z≥0.

A trivializing formalization is ruled out: replacing UUU by any closed form other than the one fixed by (3.4) (for instance U(z,C)=CU(z, C) = CU(z,C)=C, the fluid utilization of Remark 3.8) would change the problem and reduce (3.5) to the dual (2.3); and the goal asserts the identification E=1−e−yE = 1 - e^{-y}E=1−e−y rather than restating the existence and uniqueness that is already Proved.

A complete development needs: inverse-function arguments for a strictly increasing continuous map of [0,∞)[0, \infty)[0,∞), derivatives of interval integrals with continuous integrands, strict convexity of separable sums, and first-order optimality conditions for convex functions on the nonnegative orthant. The facts about Erlang's formula and about UUU are reusable in any reduced-load analysis. Proofs of individual milestones are welcome independently.

Selected references

  • F. P. Kelly, Loss networks, The Annals of Applied Probability 1(3):319–378, 1991. https://doi.org/10.1214/aoap/1177005872
  • F. P. Kelly, Blocking probabilities in large circuit-switched networks, Advances in Applied Probability 18:473–505, 1986 (reference [33] of Kelly 1991; DOI not verified offline).
  • F. P. Kelly and E. Yudovina, Stochastic Networks, Cambridge University Press, 2014 (the source of the Proved platform items referenced here; DOI not verified offline).
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Loss Networks 1: The Primal Problem Has a Unique Optimum x_r = ν_r ∏_j (1 − B_j)^{A_jr}; the Conditions on B Are Solvable, Uniquely if rank A = J, and Biject with Dual OptimaResearch Paper

Motivation

A loss network carries calls that require capacity on one or more links. A call is accepted only when every required link has enough free circuits; otherwise it is lost. This makes the traffic on different links dependent even when calls on different routes arrive independently. Network operators need to know where capacity constraints bind and how offered traffic is converted into carried traffic. Kelly's 1991 survey develops a continuous optimization problem that identifies a characteristic flow vector and gives a linkwise description of blocking in this setting. Kelly, Loss networks (1991), §§1.2 and 2.1.

The paper begins with the equilibrium distribution of the discrete network and uses a continuous relaxation when analyzing its likely state. The resulting primal problem is useful beyond the original probability calculation because it links route flows, capacity constraints, and a convex dual. Theorem 2.8 collects the existence, uniqueness, and correspondence statements for these descriptions. This mission targets that theorem and the intermediate claims Kelly states in §2.1. Kelly (1991), pp. 327–329.

Setting

There are finitely many links jjj and finitely many routes rrr. Link jjj has CjC_jCj​ circuits, and one call on route rrr uses AjrA_{jr}Ajr​ circuits there, with AjrA_{jr}Ajr​ a nonnegative integer. Calls request route rrr at positive offered rate νr\nu_rνr​. The matrix AAA need not be a zero–one incidence matrix: one call may use more than one circuit on a link. Kelly's fixed-routing model and its general integer matrix are described in §1.2. Kelly (1991), p. 321.

A real route-flow vector x=(xr)x=(x_r)x=(xr​) is primal feasible if xr≥0x_r\ge0xr​≥0 for every route and ∑rAjrxr≤Cj\sum_r A_{jr}x_r\le C_j∑r​Ajr​xr​≤Cj​ for every link. The objective is

F(x)=∑r(xrlog⁡νr−xrlog⁡xr+xr),F(x)=\sum_r\bigl(x_r\log\nu_r-x_r\log x_r+x_r\bigr),F(x)=r∑​(xr​logνr​−xr​logxr​+xr​),

with xrlog⁡xr=0x_r\log x_r=0xr​logxr​=0 at xr=0x_r=0xr​=0. The primal optimum maximizes FFF over precisely this feasible set. This is the continuous problem (2.1), rather than an optimization over the integer-valued network state. Kelly (1991), p. 327, (2.1).

A nonnegative vector y=(yj)y=(y_j)y=(yj​) assigns one multiplier to each link. The dual objective is

D(y)=∑rνrexp⁡ ⁣(−∑jyjAjr)+∑jyjCj,yj≥0.D(y)=\sum_r\nu_r\exp\!\left(-\sum_jy_jA_{jr}\right)+\sum_jy_jC_j, \qquad y_j\ge0.D(y)=r∑​νr​exp(−j∑​yj​Ajr​)+j∑​yj​Cj​,yj​≥0.

A blocking vector B=(Bj)B=(B_j)B=(Bj​) has 0≤Bj<10\le B_j<10≤Bj​<1. Its carried route flow is νr∏i(1−Bi)Air\nu_r\prod_i(1-B_i)^{A_{ir}}νr​∏i​(1−Bi​)Air​. The conditions on BBB say that the total carried flow through link jjj equals CjC_jCj​ when Bj>0B_j>0Bj​>0, and is at most CjC_jCj​ when Bj=0B_j=0Bj​=0. The multiplier and blocking coordinates are related by Bj=1−e−yjB_j=1-e^{-y_j}Bj​=1−e−yj​, equivalently yj=−log⁡(1−Bj)y_j=-\log(1-B_j)yj​=−log(1−Bj​). These are equations (2.3), (2.6), and (2.7). Kelly (1991), p. 328.

Formalization targets

Theorem 2.8: primal optimum, blocking solutions, and dual optima

The goal first asserts that the primal problem has exactly one optimizer. Every blocking solution must describe that same optimizer:

xr=νr∏j(1−Bj)Ajrfor every route r.x_r=\nu_r\prod_j(1-B_j)^{A_{jr}}\quad\text{for every route }r.xr​=νr​j∏​(1−Bj​)Ajr​for every route r.

It also asserts that a blocking solution exists, and that it is unique if AAA has rank JJJ, the number of links. Finally, the transformations Bj=1−e−yjB_j=1-e^{-y_j}Bj​=1−e−yj​ and yj=−log⁡(1−Bj)y_j=-\log(1-B_j)yj​=−log(1−Bj​) give a bijection between all blocking solutions and all dual optima. The formal goal includes both directions and both inverse identities, even when the dual optimizer is not unique. Kelly (1991), p. 329, Theorem 2.8.

Claims leading to the theorem

The milestone list follows Kelly's stated progression: unique primal attainment; the Lagrangian maximum and the dual value in (2.2); feasibility and complementary slackness in (2.4)–(2.5); the substitution (2.6); dual attainment; both directions of the blocking–dual correspondence; and strict convexity plus uniqueness under full row rank. One direction of the correspondence is an existing, proved platform theorem, KellyStochasticNetworks.dual_optimum_conditions; it is referenced directly. The other direction remains a new target. Kelly (1991), pp. 327–329.

Significance

The theorem makes the carried flow uniquely determined even when several blocking vectors or dual optimizers describe it. Under full row rank, it also identifies a unique linkwise blocking vector. Its correspondence lets a statement in the flow language be translated to a statement in the multiplier language without selecting a preferred optimizer. The interpretation following Theorem 2.8 explains the linkwise condition: positive blocking occurs only on a saturated link. Kelly (1991), p. 329, discussion after Theorem 2.8.

The mathematical result was proved in the source paper. The work here is to obtain machine-checked proofs of its exact finite-dimensional statements. The published Kelly–Yudovina definition KellyStochasticNetworks.dualObjective already represents the dual formula, and its proved optimum-conditions theorem supplies one direction of the correspondence. The remaining development would give reusable facts about separable entropy objectives, nonnegative linear capacity constraints, complementary slackness, and exponential coordinate changes. Those facts can support later loss-network formalizations without changing this mission's target.

Difficulty

The boundary xr=0x_r=0xr​=0 requires care: the objective has a continuous value there, but its logarithmic derivative does not. Thus a calculation that differentiates the objective throughout the closed nonnegative cone does not justify the printed differentiability sentence on p. 327. Dual existence is another boundary issue. A nonnegative capacity permits Cj=0C_j=0Cj​=0, while the paper's stated growth of the dual objective in every nonnegative coordinate can fail at that input. Any formal argument for the complete theorem must cover these domains accurately. Full row rank controls uniqueness of the dual coordinates; without it, the paper explicitly allows nonunique blocking solutions. Kelly (1991), pp. 327–329.

Formalization scope

Lean represents links by Fin J, routes by Fin R, AjrA_{jr}Ajr​ and CjC_jCj​ by natural numbers, and xrx_rxr​, yjy_jyj​, BjB_jBj​, and νr\nu_rνr​ by real numbers. The primal feasible set includes both coordinatewise nonnegativity and every link-capacity inequality. The dual optimum is minimal over the nonnegative orthant, using the published dual objective. The finite sums and products have their usual empty-index values; no hidden nonemptiness assumption is imposed. Matrix rank is taken over the reals and compared with JJJ, so the rank condition is full row rank.

The goal assumes νr>0\nu_r>0νr​>0 and Cj≥1C_j\ge1Cj​≥1 for every route and link. Positive rates give the logarithm in the primal objective its intended meaning. Positive capacities exclude a degeneracy in the dual-attainment and blocking parts of the theorem. The value at xr=0x_r=0xr​=0 is the continuous extension xrlog⁡xr=0x_r\log x_r=0xr​logxr​=0; no differentiability assertion at that boundary is part of the formal target. Blocking values belong to [0,1)[0,1)[0,1), so the inverse logarithm is evaluated on a positive number. A flow optimum always ranges over the exact primal feasible set, and a blocking solution always ranges over the full conditions (2.7); neither can be replaced by an arbitrary vector with a convenient equation.

A complete proof may require finite-dimensional convex analysis, strict concavity of the entropy term, attainment on a closed feasible set, the dual first-order condition, and facts about exponentials, logarithms, products, and matrix rank. The definitions and theorems are kept separate so work on these pieces can be reused. Contributions proving either a milestone or a reusable supporting lemma are in scope.

Selected references

  • F. P. Kelly, Loss networks, The Annals of Applied Probability 1(3), 319–378, 1991. DOI: 10.1214/aoap/1177005872.
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Loss Networks 3: If E e^{λX} < ∞ and 2E(X − C)⁺ < E(C − X)⁺, i.i.d. Loads on the Complete Graph Fit on Direct and Two-Edge Routes with Probability → 1Research Paper

Motivation

Telephone and data networks are often fully connected at the core: every pair of switching centres has a direct trunk group, and a call that finds its direct trunk full may be alternatively routed over a two-link path through a third, tandem centre. Whether such a network can absorb fluctuations of demand without losing traffic depends on how the spare capacity of lightly loaded links can be borrowed by heavily loaded ones. F. P. Kelly's survey Loss networks (Ann. Appl. Probab., 1991, doi:10.1214/aoap/1177005872) studies this question in §4.6, "Results respecting graph structure", by looking at a static snapshot of the network: random loads on the edges of a complete graph, and the question whether they can all be carried at once.

Timeline:

  • Hajek (1986, personal communication cited as [21] in the survey) considered edges coloured independently red (a pair that needs twice an edge's capacity) or white (an idle edge), and proved that for red probability p<1/3p<1/3p<1/3 all red pairs can be served over white two-edge paths with probability tending to one (Theorem 4.40, p. 357).
  • Hajek (1987, [22]) showed the same threshold for routing each red pair on a single two-edge path (Theorem 4.43, quoted, p. 358).
  • Kelly (1991, Theorem 4.45, p. 358) extended Theorem 4.40 from two-valued loads to general i.i.d. loads with an exponential moment, under the condition 2 E(X−C)+<E(C−X)+2\,\mathbb E(X-C)^+<\mathbb E(C-X)^+2E(X−C)+<E(C−X)+. The survey gives the proof in full on p. 359.

Setting

Let K≥1K\ge 1K≥1 and consider the complete graph on the nodes {0,…,K−1}\{0,\dots,K-1\}{0,…,K−1}: every unordered pair e={a,b}e=\{a,b\}e={a,b} of distinct nodes is an edge, and there are 12K(K−1)\tfrac12K(K-1)21​K(K−1) edges. Every edge has capacity CCC.

An offered load xe≥0x_e\ge 0xe​≥0 is attached to every edge eee. The load of e={a,b}e=\{a,b\}e={a,b} may be carried on its direct edge, or on a two-edge route a−k−ba-k-ba−k−b through a tandem node k∉ek\notin ek∈/e; such a route uses the two edges {a,k}\{a,k\}{a,k} and {b,k}\{b,k\}{b,k}. Loads are divisible. The loads are routable with capacity CCC if there are flows fe,k≥0f_{e,k}\ge 0fe,k​≥0 (zero when k∈ek\in ek∈e) with ∑kfe,k≤xe\sum_k f_{e,k}\le x_e∑k​fe,k​≤xe​ such that on every edge ggg

(xg−∑kfg,k)+∑(e,k): g on the route of e via kfe,k≤C,\Big(x_g-\sum_k f_{g,k}\Big)+\sum_{(e,k):\ g \text{ on the route of } e \text{ via } k} f_{e,k}\le C,(xg​−k∑​fg,k​)+(e,k): g on the route of e via k∑​fe,k​≤C,

i.e. the directly carried part of ggg's own load plus all two-edge traffic passing through ggg is at most CCC.

The loads are random: XXX is a nonnegative real random variable with law μ\muμ, and the loads (xe)(x_e)(xe​) are independent, each distributed as XXX. Let

P(K)=P{the loads on the complete graph on K nodes are routable}.P(K)=\mathbb P\{\text{the loads on the complete graph on } K \text{ nodes are routable}\}.P(K)=P{the loads on the complete graph on K nodes are routable}.

Write E(X−C)+\mathbb E(X-C)^+E(X−C)+ for the mean excess of a load over the capacity and E(C−X)+\mathbb E(C-X)^+E(C−X)+ for the mean spare capacity.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 4.45

If E eλX<∞\mathbb E\,e^{\lambda X}<\inftyEeλX<∞ for some λ>0\lambda>0λ>0 and

2 E(X−C)+<E(C−X)+(4.46)2\,\mathbb E(X-C)^+<\mathbb E(C-X)^+ \tag{4.46}2E(X−C)+<E(C−X)+(4.46)

then

P(K)→1(K→∞).P(K)\to 1 \qquad (K\to\infty).P(K)→1(K→∞).

Milestones (in the order of the proof on pp. 358–359)

With m=E(C−X)+m=\mathbb E(C-X)^+m=E(C−X)+ and 0<ε<m20<\varepsilon<m^20<ε<m2:

  1. In each triangle the cyclic reservations (xe−C)+(C−xak)+(C−xbk)+/((K−2)(m2−ε))(x_e-C)^+(C-x_{ak})^+(C-x_{bk})^+/((K-2)(m^2-\varepsilon))(xe​−C)+(C−xak​)+(C−xbk​)+/((K−2)(m2−ε)) are positive at most once, and only for an overloaded edge routed through two underloaded ones.
  2. If every overloaded edge's reservations cover its excess and no underloaded edge has more reserved through it than it has spare, the loads are routable.
  3. E Y=m2/(m2−ε)>1\mathbb E\,Y=m^2/(m^2-\varepsilon)>1EY=m2/(m2−ε)>1 for Y=(C−X2)+(C−X3)+/(m2−ε)Y=(C-X_2)^+(C-X_3)^+/(m^2-\varepsilon)Y=(C−X2​)+(C−X3​)+/(m2−ε).
  4. E Z=2 E(X−C)+ m/(m2−ε)<1\mathbb E\,Z=2\,\mathbb E(X-C)^+\,m/(m^2-\varepsilon)<1EZ=2E(X−C)+m/(m2−ε)<1 for small ε\varepsilonε, for Z=((X1−C)+(C−X2)++(X2−C)+(C−X1)+)/(m2−ε)Z=\big((X_1-C)^+(C-X_2)^++(X_2-C)^+(C-X_1)^+\big)/(m^2-\varepsilon)Z=((X1​−C)+(C−X2​)++(X2​−C)+(C−X1​)+)/(m2−ε).
  5. (4.48): P{∑i≤nn−1Yi<1}≤e−nI1\mathbb P\{\sum_{i\le n} n^{-1}Y_i<1\}\le e^{-nI_1}P{∑i≤n​n−1Yi​<1}≤e−nI1​ for some I1>0I_1>0I1​>0 and all n≥1n\ge 1n≥1.
  6. (4.49): P{∑i≤nn−1Zi>1}≤e−nI2\mathbb P\{\sum_{i\le n} n^{-1}Z_i>1\}\le e^{-nI_2}P{∑i≤n​n−1Zi​>1}≤e−nI2​ for some I2>0I_2>0I2​>0 and all n≥1n\ge 1n≥1, when XXX has an exponential moment.
  7. 1−P(K)≤12K(K−1) (P1(K−2)+P2(K−2))1-P(K)\le\tfrac12K(K-1)\,(P_1(K-2)+P_2(K-2))1−P(K)≤21​K(K−1)(P1​(K−2)+P2​(K−2)).

Significance

The result. Theorem 4.45 says that in a large fully connected network, a load distribution whose mean overload is less than half its mean spare capacity can be served, with probability tending to one, using only direct and two-link routes. The factor 222 reflects that each unit of overflow occupies two edges. The condition is explicit and depends on the load law only through two expectations, which makes it a design rule: capacity CCC suffices for large networks as soon as (4.46) holds. Comment 4.47 (p. 358) observes that the two-valued law P{X=2}=p\mathbb P\{X=2\}=pP{X=2}=p, P{X=0}=1−p\mathbb P\{X=0\}=1-pP{X=0}=1−p with C=1C=1C=1 turns (4.46) into Hajek's threshold p<1/3p<1/3p<1/3.

Formalizing it. The theorem is proved, in full, on one page; nothing here is open. The mission produces a machine-checked version of that proof: a precise routing event on the complete graph, the deterministic reservation argument, two Cramér–Chernoff tail bounds with rates uniform in the network size, and the union bound over edges. To our knowledge none of these steps is formalized anywhere, and no routing-feasibility event on a complete graph exists in Mathlib or on the platform.

Difficulty

The obvious approach is to fix an overloaded edge and argue that, among its K−2K-2K−2 two-edge routes, enough pass through two underloaded edges. That count is binomial and concentrates, but it does not prove the theorem: the same underloaded edge sits on two-edge routes of many overloaded pairs, so the reservations of different pairs compete for its spare capacity, and the routing decisions of different pairs are dependent. Any argument has to control, simultaneously at every edge, both the flow an overloaded edge can shed and the flow an underloaded edge is asked to absorb, with exponential rates uniform in KKK so that a union bound over 12K(K−1)\tfrac12K(K-1)21​K(K−1) edges survives; this is the central difficulty. On the upper side the variables are unbounded, so the exponential moment of XXX has to be carried over to the reserved flows.

Formalization scope

The Lean development lives in the namespace KellyLossNetworks.Routing.

  • Edges are {e : Sym2 (Fin K) // ¬ e.IsDiag}; loads are functions Edge K → ℝ.
  • The routing event Feasible C x lets each pair split its load arbitrarily over its direct edge and all its two-edge routes, charges a two-edge flow to both edges of its route, requires the flow sent away from a pair not to exceed its load, and imposes the capacity constraint on every edge, including overloaded ones. Flows are real (divisible loads); integer routing is a different problem.
  • "Independent and identically distributed" is the product measure Measure.pi (fun _ : Edge K => μ), with μ a probability measure on ℝ and X ≥ 0 almost surely. P(K)P(K)P(K) is the measure of the routing event; no measurability of that event is presupposed.
  • Expectations are Bochner integrals. The exponential moment is integrability of t↦eθtt\mapsto e^{\theta t}t↦eθt for some θ>0\theta>0θ>0; it implies that (X−C)+(X-C)^+(X−C)+ is integrable, so (4.46) compares genuine expectations.
  • The limit is along K∈NK\in\mathbb NK∈N with no lower bound on KKK; for K≤2K\le 2K≤2 there are no two-edge routes, which does not affect the limit.
  • The rates I1,I2I_1,I_2I1​,I2​ in (4.48) and (4.49) are quantified before nnn and may not depend on it.

A trivializing formalization is ruled out: an event that allows only direct routing, ignores the capacity of the edges a detour passes through, or lets a pair send away more than its load would make the statement false or empty, and the routing event here does none of these.

A complete development needs Fubini on product measures, the Cramér–Chernoff method for averages of i.i.d. variables (both tails, with the lower tail for a bounded nonnegative variable and the upper tail under an exponential moment), measure-preserving projections of Measure.pi, and combinatorics of the triangles through an edge of the complete graph. The Cramér–Chernoff bounds with rates uniform in nnn are reusable well beyond this mission. Contributions to any milestone are welcome; the deterministic milestones 1–2 and the expectation computations 3–4 are independent of the tail bounds and of each other.

Selected references

  • F. P. Kelly, Loss networks, Annals of Applied Probability 1(3):319–378, 1991. doi:10.1214/aoap/1177005872
  • B. Hajek, Average case analysis of greedy algorithms for Kelly's triangle problem and the independent set problem, 26th IEEE Conference on Decision and Control, 1987 (reference [22] of the survey; the source of Theorem 4.43).
  • H. Chernoff, A measure of asymptotic efficiency for tests of a hypothesis based on the sum of observations, Annals of Mathematical Statistics 23(4):493–507, 1952. doi:10.1214/aoms/1177729330
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Discrete GeometryGroup TheoryOperations Research·Captain: mikedeng1

Some Polyhedra Related to Combinatorial Problems III: Faces of P(H, ψg0) Lift Through a Homomorphism ψ of G onto H to Faces of P(G, g0)Research Paper

Motivation

Every pure integer program, once its linear programming relaxation has been solved, can be relaxed further to a problem over a finite Abelian group: the nonbasic variables must satisfy a single congruence in the group of the optimal basis. R. E. Gomory introduced this relaxation in 1965 and studied the convex hull of its solutions in Some polyhedra related to combinatorial problems (Linear Algebra Appl. 2 (1969), 451–558, doi:10.1016/0024-3795(69)90017-2). The facets of these group polyhedra are valid inequalities for every integer program whose basis produces the same group, and they became the source of cutting planes for integer programming: Gomory's mixed-integer cut and the later theory of corner polyhedra and subadditive valid inequalities descend from them.

The number of facets grows fast with the order of the group, so a list of facets for each group is not a usable description. Section 3D of the paper, "Lifting up Faces", gives a structural tool instead: facets of the polyhedron of a small group produce facets of the polyhedron of every larger group that maps onto it. This mission formalizes that construction (THEOREM 19) and its converse (THEOREM 20).

Setting

Let G\mathcal GG be a finite Abelian group, written additively, with zero 0ˉ\bar 00ˉ and order D=∣G∣D=|\mathcal G|D=∣G∣, and let G+=G−{0ˉ}\mathcal G^+=\mathcal G-\{\bar 0\}G+=G−{0ˉ}. For a right-hand side g0∈Gg_0\in\mathcal Gg0​∈G, the group equation asks for nonnegative integers t(g)t(g)t(g), g∈G+g\in\mathcal G^+g∈G+, with

∑g∈G+t(g)⋅g=g0.\sum_{g\in\mathcal G^+}t(g)\cdot g=g_0 .g∈G+∑​t(g)⋅g=g0​.

Its solution set is T(G,g0)T(\mathcal G,g_0)T(G,g0​); when g0=0ˉg_0=\bar 0g0​=0ˉ, the zero solution is excluded, as stipulated on p. 474. Each solution is a point of RG+\mathbb R^{\mathcal G^+}RG+, a space of dimension n′=D−1n'=D-1n′=D−1, and the master polyhedron P(G,g0)P(\mathcal G,g_0)P(G,g0​) is the convex hull of T(G,g0)T(\mathcal G,g_0)T(G,g0​). Gomory reads a solution ttt as a path from 0ˉ\bar 00ˉ to g0g_0g0​ that uses the element ggg exactly t(g)t(g)t(g) times; with arc lengths π(g)\pi(g)π(g) its length is π⋅t=∑gπ(g)t(g)\pi\cdot t=\sum_g\pi(g)t(g)π⋅t=∑g​π(g)t(g).

An inequality π⋅t≥π0\pi\cdot t\ge\pi_0π⋅t≥π0​, written (π,π0)(\pi,\pi_0)(π,π0​), is a face of P(G,g0)P(\mathcal G,g_0)P(G,g0​) when π≠0\pi\ne0π=0, every t∈T(G,g0)t\in T(\mathcal G,g_0)t∈T(G,g0​) satisfies it, and the solutions on the hyperplane π⋅t=π0\pi\cdot t=\pi_0π⋅t=π0​ generate that hyperplane: every point of it is a weighted sum, with total weight 1, of such solutions. A face is therefore a facet; Gomory says "face" throughout, and so does this mission. The solutions with π⋅t=π0\pi\cdot t=\pi_0π⋅t=π0​ are the minimal paths.

Let ψ\psiψ be a homomorphism of G\mathcal GG onto a second finite Abelian group H\mathcal HH, with kernel K=ψ−1(0ˉ)\mathcal K=\psi^{-1}(\bar 0)K=ψ−1(0ˉ). A coefficient vector π′\pi'π′ on H+\mathcal H^+H+ is lifted to G+\mathcal G^+G+ by

π(g)=π′(ψg),π′(0ˉ)=0,\pi(g)=\pi'(\psi g),\qquad \pi'(\bar 0)=0,π(g)=π′(ψg),π′(0ˉ)=0,

so that every element of the kernel gets coefficient 000.

Formalization targets

Goal: THEOREM 19 (p. 486)

If ψg0≠0ˉ\psi g_0\ne\bar 0ψg0​=0ˉ and (π′,π0)(\pi',\pi_0)(π′,π0​) is a face of P(H,ψg0)P(\mathcal H,\psi g_0)P(H,ψg0​) with π0>0\pi_0>0π0​>0, then

(π,π0),π(g)=π′(ψg),is a face of P(G,g0).\Big(\pi,\pi_0\Big),\quad \pi(g)=\pi'(\psi g),\quad\text{is a face of } P(\mathcal G,g_0).(π,π0​),π(g)=π′(ψg),is a face of P(G,g0​).

For instance, the face t1≥1t_1\ge1t1​≥1 of P(G2,(1))P(\mathcal G_2,(1))P(G2​,(1)) lifts through reduction mod 2 to the face t1+0t2+t3+0t4+t5≥1t_1+0t_2+t_3+0t_4+t_5\ge1t1​+0t2​+t3​+0t4​+t5​≥1 of P(G6,(5))P(\mathcal G_6,(5))P(G6​,(5)) (p. 488).

Milestones

  1. Face criterion (p. 469, proof of THEOREM 7). For π0>0\pi_0>0π0​>0, (π,π0)(\pi,\pi_0)(π,π0​) is a face iff it is valid on TTT and n′n'n′ linearly independent solutions satisfy π⋅t=π0\pi\cdot t=\pi_0π⋅t=π0​.
  2. Pushing paths forward (p. 486). A solution ttt for G\mathcal GG maps to the solution τ(h)=∑g∈ψ−1ht(g)\tau(h)=\sum_{g\in\psi^{-1}h}t(g)τ(h)=∑g∈ψ−1h​t(g) for H\mathcal HH of the same length; hence the lifted inequality is valid.
  3. Lifted minimal paths (p. 487). From a minimal path τ\tauτ for H\mathcal HH and a kernel element kkk, the path Tk(τ)T_k(\tau)Tk​(τ) is a minimal path for G\mathcal GG.
  4. Rank D−1D-1D−1 (pp. 487–488). The lifted inequality has D−1D-1D−1 linearly independent minimal paths.

Further result: THEOREM 20 (p. 489)

Conversely, a face (π,π0)(\pi,\pi_0)(π,π0​) of P(G,g0)P(\mathcal G,g_0)P(G,g0​) with π0>0\pi_0>0π0​>0 and π(g)=0\pi(g)=0π(g)=0 for some g≠0ˉg\ne\bar0g=0ˉ is the lift of a face of P(H,ψg0)P(\mathcal H,\psi g_0)P(H,ψg0​) for some ψ\psiψ of G\mathcal GG onto a group H\mathcal HH with ψg=0ˉ\psi g=\bar 0ψg=0ˉ.

Significance

THEOREMS 19 and 20 together say that the faces of P(G,g0)P(\mathcal G,g_0)P(G,g0​) with π0>0\pi_0>0π0​>0 and a zero coefficient are exactly the faces lifted from proper quotients of G\mathcal GG. A catalogue of these positive-right-hand-side faces therefore only needs the faces with all coefficients positive; the rest come from smaller groups. Gomory uses this to explain the tables of Appendix 5: for G2,2\mathcal G_{2,2}G2,2​ and G2,2,2\mathcal G_{2,2,2}G2,2,2​ every such face is a lift of the single nontrivial face of P(G2,(1))P(\mathcal G_2,(1))P(G2​,(1)), and for a direct sum G=K1⊕K2\mathcal G=\mathcal K_1\oplus\mathcal K_2G=K1​⊕K2​ every face of the polyhedron of a summand not containing g0g_0g0​ extends to a face for G\mathcal GG (p. 489). The same idea, sending facets of one group problem to facets of another by a homomorphism, recurs in the later theory of group relaxations and infinite group problems.

Both theorems are proved in the paper. To the knowledge of this mission, neither the group polyhedra, their faces nor the lifting theorem has a machine-checked formalization; the platform's other "lifting" results (lifted cover facets of the knapsack polytope, cone lifts of convex sets) are different notions. The mission produces a reusable definition layer for master group polyhedra and their faces, stated once for an arbitrary finite Abelian group, and a formal version of the passage between faces of a group and of its quotients.

Difficulty

Validity of the lifted inequality is a one-line computation (milestone 2). The content is that the lift is a facet: one must exhibit D−1D-1D−1 affinely independent solutions on the hyperplane, while the quotient face only supplies ∣H∣−1|\mathcal H|-1∣H∣−1 of them. A solution of the quotient problem does not determine a solution for G\mathcal GG; coset representatives must be chosen and the path closed by a kernel element, and the kernel coordinates, which all have coefficient zero, must still be filled to full rank.

The obvious reduction, "a facet pulls back to a facet under a surjective map", fails here because the map from G\mathcal GG-paths to H\mathcal HH-paths is a linear projection from dimension D−1D-1D−1 to ∣H∣−1|\mathcal H|-1∣H∣−1 and does not lift independence by itself. It also fails at π0=0\pi_0=0π0​=0: with G=Z6\mathcal G=\mathbb Z_6G=Z6​, H=Z3\mathcal H=\mathbb Z_3H=Z3​, g0=1g_0=1g0​=1, the face t(1)≥0t(1)\ge0t(1)≥0 of P(Z3,(1))P(\mathbb Z_3,(1))P(Z3​,(1)) lifts to t(1)+t(4)≥0t(1)+t(4)\ge0t(1)+t(4)≥0, which is valid but not a face of P(Z6,(1))P(\mathbb Z_6,(1))P(Z6​,(1)).

Formalization scope

The formalization uses one definition file for an arbitrary finite Abelian group ([AddCommGroup G] [Fintype G] [DecidableEq G]), instantiated at both G\mathcal GG and H\mathcal HH. It commits to the following readings:

  • Vectors are indexed by the subtype {g∣g≠0ˉ}\{g\mid g\ne\bar0\}{g∣g=0ˉ}, so 0ˉ\bar00ˉ has no coordinate and the dimension of T-space is ∣G∣−1|\mathcal G|-1∣G∣−1 for each group separately; solutions are N\mathbb NN-valued, nonzero, and cast to R\mathbb RR. When g0≠0ˉg_0\ne\bar0g0​=0ˉ, the group equation already excludes the zero vector.
  • "Generated by the points on the hyperplane" means that the affine span of the tight solutions equals the hyperplane {x:π⋅x=π0}\{x:\pi\cdot x=\pi_0\}{x:π⋅x=π0​}; π≠0\pi\ne0π=0 is part of the definition and π0≥0\pi_0\ge0π0​≥0 is not (THEOREM 6 proves it).
  • Paths are vectors and "minimal path" means a solution with π⋅t=π0\pi\cdot t=\pi_0π⋅t=π0​.
  • π′(0ˉ)=0\pi'(\bar0)=0π′(0ˉ)=0 is built into the lift; "onto" is Function.Surjective ψ, and g0∉Kg_0\notin\mathcal Kg0​∈/K is ψg0≠0ˉ\psi g_0\ne\bar0ψg0​=0ˉ.
  • Added hypothesis π0>0\pi_0>0π0​>0 in THEOREM 19 and the rank milestone: the page omits it, and the Z6→Z3\mathbb Z_6\to\mathbb Z_3Z6​→Z3​ example above shows the statement is false without it.
  • The face criterion is THEOREM 7's "basic feasible solution" unfolded into n′n'n′ linearly independent tight solutions, stated for the master polyhedron only and for nontrivial groups, where n′>0n'>0n′>0.
  • Pushing a path forward uses ψg0≠0ˉ\psi g_0\ne\bar0ψg0​=0ˉ, the standing hypothesis of THEOREM 19, so the pushed path cannot become the excluded zero solution.
  • The lifted path Tk(τ)T_k(\tau)Tk​(τ) puts its closing 111 on the kernel element g0−∑g∉Ktk(g)⋅gg_0-\sum_{g\notin\mathcal K}t_k(g)\cdot gg0​−∑g∈/K​tk​(g)⋅g itself, and adds nothing when that element is 0ˉ\bar00ˉ.
  • In THEOREM 20, "nontrivial" is π0>0\pi_0>0π0​>0, the printed (π1,π0)(\pi_1,\pi_0)(π1​,π0​) is read as (π,π0)(\pi,\pi_0)(π,π0​), and the conclusion requires ψg=0ˉ\psi g=\bar0ψg=0ˉ for the given zero coefficient: without it the identity map would satisfy the statement.

A formalization that proves only validity of the lift, or that defines faces without the generation condition (so that every valid inequality is a "face"), would be trivial and is ruled out by the definition of IsFace.

The development needs finite sums over fibres of ψ\psiψ, a choice of coset representatives, and a rank argument for a block matrix with full-rank diagonal blocks. The definitions of TTT, P(G,g0)P(\mathcal G,g_0)P(G,g0​) and face are reusable for any further result on master group polyhedra. Proofs of the milestones in any order, alternative proofs of the face criterion, and a proof of THEOREM 20 are welcome.

Selected references

  • R. E. Gomory, Some polyhedra related to combinatorial problems, Linear Algebra and Its Applications 2 (1969), 451–558. doi:10.1016/0024-3795(69)90017-2
  • R. E. Gomory, On the relation between integer and noninteger solutions to linear programs, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 53 (1965), 260–265. doi:10.1073/pnas.53.2.260
  • R. E. Gomory and E. L. Johnson, Some continuous functions related to corner polyhedra, Mathematical Programming 3 (1972), 23–85. doi:10.1007/BF01584976
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Dynamic ProgrammingLinear OptimizationMarkov Chain+2·Captain: mikedeng1

Linear Programming and Finite Markovian Control Problems VII: Bias Optimality — Four Equivalent Characterizations of a Bias Optimal Pure Stationary PolicyTextbook

Why bias optimality matters

A finite Markov decision problem can have several policies with the same long-run average reward even though they behave differently before reaching a recurrent class. Average reward discards a finite initial advantage: dividing total reward by the horizon sends any fixed transient contribution to zero. In applications where the process runs for a long but unspecified time, this leaves a genuine choice among average-optimal policies. Bias optimality uses discounted values as the discount factor approaches one to resolve that choice. Kallenberg develops the criterion in Chapter 5 of Linear Programming and Finite Markovian Control Problems, following Blackwell's earlier notion of a nearly optimal policy.

The chapter asks for a way to recognize a bias optimal policy without comparing it directly with every possible sequence of history-dependent, randomized decisions. Its central characterization, Theorem 5.2.2, gives three tests involving only pure stationary policies. That change in the comparison class matters: there are finitely many pure stationary rules, while a general policy may depend on an unbounded history. The theorem also explains why average optimality alone leaves policies untied only at the gain level, while their bias vectors can differ. The two-state example in Figure 5.2.1 exhibits an average-optimal stationary rule that is not bias optimal (Kallenberg, pp. 163–164).

The finite decision model

The state space is E={1,…,N}E=\{1,\ldots,N\}E={1,…,N} with N>0N>0N>0. Each state iii has its own finite, nonempty set A(i)A(i)A(i) of admissible actions. Choosing a∈A(i)a\in A(i)a∈A(i) earns the real reward riar_{ia}ria​ immediately and moves to state jjj with probability piajp_{iaj}piaj​. The rows are stochastic: piaj≥0p_{iaj}\ge0piaj​≥0 and ∑jpiaj=1\sum_jp_{iaj}=1∑j​piaj​=1. This is the chapter's standing assumption, stated at the opening of §5.2 (Kallenberg, p. 162).

A policy R∈CR\in CR∈C assigns a probability distribution on the actions available at the current state after every finite history. Thus CCC includes randomized and history-dependent decisions. A pure stationary policy f∞∈CDf^\infty\in C_Df∞∈CD​ instead fixes one action f(i)∈A(i)f(i)\in A(i)f(i)∈A(i) for each state and uses it in every period. Time starts at t=1t=1t=1. From initial state iii, let vit(R)v_i^t(R)vit​(R) be expected reward in period ttt, and let viα(R)=∑t≥1αt−1vit(R)v_i^\alpha(R)=\sum_{t\ge1}\alpha^{t-1}v_i^t(R)viα​(R)=∑t≥1​αt−1vit​(R) be expected discounted reward for 0≤α<10\le\alpha<10≤α<1. The optimal discounted value viαv_i^\alphaviα​ is the supremum of viα(R)v_i^\alpha(R)viα​(R) over all R∈CR\in CR∈C, taken separately for each state.

The average reward is ϕi(R)=lim inf⁡T→∞T−1∑t=1Tvit(R)\phi_i(R)=\liminf_{T\to\infty}T^{-1}\sum_{t=1}^T v_i^t(R)ϕi​(R)=liminfT→∞​T−1∑t=1T​vit​(R); its optimal value ϕi\phi_iϕi​ is again the statewise supremum over CCC. The corresponding limsup is ϕ^i(R)\hat\phi_i(R)ϕ^​i​(R). A policy is average optimal when ϕi(R)=ϕi\phi_i(R)=\phi_iϕi​(R)=ϕi​ at every state. It is bias optimal when viα(R)−viα→0v_i^\alpha(R)-v_i^\alpha\to0viα​(R)−viα​→0 as α↑1\alpha\uparrow1α↑1 at every state (Kallenberg, pp. 21–23 and 161).

For a pure stationary fff, write P(f)ij=pi,f(i),jP(f)_{ij}=p_{i,f(i),j}P(f)ij​=pi,f(i),j​ and r(f)i=ri,f(i)r(f)_i=r_{i,f(i)}r(f)i​=ri,f(i)​. The stationary matrix P∗(f)P^*(f)P∗(f) is the Cesàro limit of the powers of P(f)P(f)P(f). The deviation matrix and bias vector are

D(f)=(I−P(f)+P∗(f))−1−P∗(f),u(f∞)=D(f)r(f).D(f)=\bigl(I-P(f)+P^*(f)\bigr)^{-1}-P^*(f), \qquad u(f^\infty)=D(f)r(f).D(f)=(I−P(f)+P∗(f))−1−P∗(f),u(f∞)=D(f)r(f).

The gain of f∞f^\inftyf∞ is ϕ(f∞)=P∗(f)r(f)\phi(f^\infty)=P^*(f)r(f)ϕ(f∞)=P∗(f)r(f). These are the book's Definitions 2.4.2 and notation (2.5.5), and their finite stochastic-matrix properties are recorded in Theorem 2.4.1 (Kallenberg, pp. 29 and 33–34).

Formalization targets

The goal is Theorem 5.2.2, for each pure stationary f∗∞f_*^\inftyf∗∞​. It asserts that the following are equivalent: (i) f∗∞f_*^\inftyf∗∞​ is bias optimal against the value over all CCC; (ii) for every f∞∈CDf^\infty\in C_Df∞∈CD​, the vector limit lim⁡α↑1(vα(f∗∞)−vα(f∞))\lim_{\alpha\uparrow1}\bigl(v^\alpha(f_*^\infty)-v^\alpha(f^\infty)\bigr)limα↑1​(vα(f∗∞​)−vα(f∞)) exists and is nonnegative; (iii) f∗∞f_*^\inftyf∗∞​ is average optimal and, at every state iii, its bias is maximal among pure stationary policies optimal at that state; and (iv) for every f∞∈CDf^\infty\in C_Df∞∈CD​, the vector limit

lim⁡T→∞1T∑t=1T∑s=1t(vs(f∗∞)−vs(f∞))≥0\lim_{T\to\infty}\frac1T\sum_{t=1}^T\sum_{s=1}^t \bigl(v^s(f_*^\infty)-v^s(f^\infty)\bigr)\ge0T→∞lim​T1​t=1∑T​s=1∑t​(vs(f∗∞​)−vs(f∞))≥0

exists. These limits are read in the extended reals: a strictly positive gain gap makes a difference tend to +∞+\infty+∞, which satisfies the displayed inequality. The period rewards vsv^svs in the last formula are not discounted values. The printed clause (iii) has a typographical error in the set following max; its proof on p. 164 supplies the intended restriction ϕi(f∞)=ϕi\phi_i(f^\infty)=\phi_iϕi​(f∞)=ϕi​. The formal statement uses that reading and records it explicitly.

Two earlier chapter results are milestones. Lemma 5.2.1 bounds the Abel limsup (1−α)viα(R)(1-\alpha)v_i^\alpha(R)(1−α)viα​(R) by the upper average reward ϕ^i(R)\hat\phi_i(R)ϕ^​i​(R) for any policy. Theorem 5.2.1 says that bias optimality implies average optimality, with a two-state example showing that average optimality does not imply bias optimality. The later §5.3 linear-programming construction is a separate route to finding a bias optimal policy and is outside this mission's statement layer.

What the characterization gives

The equivalence allows bias optimality to be checked through discounted differences, bias vectors, or accumulated period rewards. Its bias-vector clause identifies the relevant comparison set: a policy can be optimal in average reward at one state without being optimal at every state, and that statewise distinction cannot be discarded. It also makes the bias criterion finer than average optimality, as the two-state counterexample shows (Kallenberg, pp. 163–165).

The source proves these results; the mission asks for machine-checked proofs of the stated equivalence and its two supporting results. The finite history and reward definitions can support later formalizations of Kallenberg's average-reward and constrained models. The matrix definitions can also be reused for results about finite Markov chains, including the Cesàro limit and deviation matrix. No machine-checked proof of this specific four-way characterization is claimed here.

Where the difficulty lies

Comparing average rewards alone loses the transient reward information that bias is designed to retain. The discounted comparison has an apparent divergence of order (1−α)−1(1-\alpha)^{-1}(1−α)−1 whenever two policies have different gains; the finite residual becomes meaningful only after those gain terms are separated. The accumulated-reward test also takes a second Cesàro average, so a direct identification with ordinary average reward would miss its bias contribution. The theorem has to preserve both the gain ordering and the finite bias remainder across these limiting regimes (Kallenberg, pp. 164–165).

For a general policy, the discounted value is defined by infinitely many history-dependent choices, whereas P∗P^*P∗ and DDD apply to one fixed stationary matrix. This is the obstacle in passing from clause (i), which compares with all CCC, to the tests against CDC_DCD​. Treating the optimal discounted value as a supremum over stationary policies by definition would erase that obstacle and change the theorem.

Formalization scope

Lean uses Fin N with N>0N>0N>0 for states and a finite action type with nonempty state-dependent admissible subsets. Rewards are real, transition rows are stochastic, and policies are distributions on actions after complete finite histories. The finite sum of products defining each history's probability supplies vit(R)v_i^t(R)vit​(R); no measure-theoretic path space is needed. Discounted rewards use a real infinite sum for α\alphaα near one from below. Average rewards are real liminf and limsup values of bounded sequences. Optimal values are statewise suprema over all admissible policies, not over just CDC_DCD​.

The matrix P∗P^*P∗ is a Cesàro limit and DDD uses the book's inverse formula. Their convergence and nonsingularity for finite stochastic matrices are mathematical obligations, not added assumptions of the goal. The T=0T=0T=0 value of a totalized average and the value of a discounted sum outside its summable range do not enter the limits. Contributions to the finite-chain limit facts, boundedness of reward criteria, the Abel/Cesàro comparison, and the four equivalences are all within scope. A formalization that restricts the optimum in bias optimality to pure stationary policies would not be this theorem.

Selected references

  • L. C. M. Kallenberg, Linear Programming and Finite Markovian Control Problems, Mathematical Centre Tracts 148, Mathematisch Centrum, Amsterdam, 1983. Publisher repository.
  • David Blackwell, “Discrete Dynamic Programming,” Annals of Mathematical Statistics 33 (1962), 719–726. DOI.
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