Optimal Starting Times for End-of-Season Sales and Optimal Stopping Times for Promotional Fares 1: Markdown Is Optimal Once Time-to-Go Falls Below a Strictly Increasing Threshold x_nResearch Paper
Why the timing of a markdown matters
A seller with limited stock can charge a high price while demand is strong and lower the price before the selling season ends. The timing depends on how many units remain: a markdown that is sensible with ample stock may be premature when only one unit is left. Feng and Gallego studied this decision when each price generates a Poisson demand stream and only one price change is allowed. Their 1995 paper proves that the optimal decision has a threshold in remaining time for every inventory level. This mission formalizes their markdown theorem, including its value-function representation, rather than just the existence of a switching rule.
The model is a finite-inventory revenue problem, relevant when an unsold unit loses its value at the end of a season. It is also a continuous-time stopping problem: the seller observes actual sales and may react to them. A fixed calendar date for the markdown cannot describe all of those decisions. The paper treats the markdown case separately from the markup case, because the order of prices, arrival rates and revenue rates reverses the behavior of the switching boundary. The present mission concerns the markdown case alone.
Prices, demand, and admissible switches
Let be the initial stock and the time to go. The seller first charges price and may change once to a lower price . Demands at the two prices are independent Poisson counts with positive rates and . A lower price produces more arrivals, so and . Feng and Gallego also assume that lowering the price increases the revenue rate: . There is no salvage payment for inventory left when time expires. These conventions come from §2 and the case split on pp. 1375–1376.
Write for the observed sales count at the initial price by time . If the price changes at deterministic time , let be the expected total revenue. The count after the change is independent of , and their sum has Poisson mean . The optimal value allows the switch time to depend on the counts observed so far. An admissible lies between zero and , is a stopping time for the history of , and occurs before stock is exhausted almost surely. At , is the revenue from charging immediately. The paper defines these quantities in §3, pp. 1377–1379.
Formalization targets
The goal is Theorem 1, p. 1380. It asserts a strictly increasing sequence of inventory-dependent thresholds. When , switching immediately earns the optimal value; when , a correction is added:
The theorem specifies the correction, rather than leaving it as an arbitrary difference of values. It starts with . For , set , where is the Poisson-tail expression from §4.1. The threshold is the first nonnegative zero of . A function satisfies for positive time and ; is zero below and equals at and above it. If is the first zero of , the theorem also gives and for .
Three supporting targets match the source's attack path. Equation (17) differentiates immediate-switch revenue. Lemma 2 gives the zeros and one sign change of in the markdown case. Lemma 1 identifies a value function through differential inequalities and its stopping payoff. Each is recorded with its page-level statement in the milestone list.
What the result provides
The threshold sequence turns an adaptive stopping problem into a state rule: inspect remaining inventory and time to go, then compare time with the corresponding threshold. The value representation supplies the expected-revenue quantity on both sides of that comparison. Strict increase means a larger stock requires a larger remaining-time threshold before charging the higher initial price is worthwhile. These are the conclusions of Theorem 1, already proved in the paper.
The work here is a Lean statement and eventual machine-checked proof of that known result. The current theorem items are open proof targets. Formalizing the model gives reusable Poisson-tail revenue expressions and a continuous-time stopping-value interface; Lemma 1 can also serve other Poisson-driven stopping problems once proved. A checked proof would establish that the threshold representation and the optimal stopping value agree under the stated assumptions, including boundary cases that informal notation leaves implicit.
Where the mathematics is difficult
The obvious comparison of two fixed switching times misses the information contained in the sales path. The switch decision can change after each observed arrival, while the threshold for inventory depends on the correction at stock . Showing that every such comparison is organized by one increasing threshold requires more than differentiating the fixed-switch revenue. The paper's appendix handles the interaction between the sign of , the recursive correction, and the stopping-value verification; these are distinct formal targets pp. 1387–1388.
The printed verification lemma and one word of Lemma 2 require care. Lemma 1 omits boundary and regularity conditions needed by its proof. Lemma 2 calls the zero sequence “bounded,” although its thresholds tend to infinity; the usable claim is that they stay above a positive lower bound. The formal statements expose these corrections and retain the rest of the source's conclusions.
Formalization scope
Lean represents the first demand stream by a counting process built from independent exponential interarrival times. The terminal revenue after a switch is expressed using the Poisson law of the sum of the two independent counts. The stopping class records the count-generated history, bounds the stopping time by the horizon, and requires stock to remain at stopping almost surely. Its expected payoff uses the number sold before stopping and the immediate-switch value for the unsold stock. Prices and rates are positive, the markdown ordering and revenue-rate inequality are explicit, and the probability measure is named explicitly even though the exponential-interarrival law already entails it.
The paper uses nonnegative real time, inventories indexed by positive integers, and zero salvage. Lean uses a real supremum for the value and a real infimum for each threshold; the admissible payoff is bounded and measurable, and every threshold-defining zero set is asserted nonempty. The ODE is expressed with an actual derivative at positive time. The auxiliary Poisson-tail definition maps a negative mean to zero, but all model applications have nonnegative means. The threshold construction, its ODE, and the equality with the stopping value are all conclusions of the goal, so none is an assumed solution.
For Lemma 1, the formal target adds the initial-time and zero-stock boundary values, domination of terminal revenue, and local Lipschitz regularity in time. The first three conditions are used in the source's own proof or reformulation; local Lipschitz regularity makes its integral calculation valid. Contributions may establish the Poisson-tail calculus, the sign and threshold results, the verification theorem, or the complete markdown theorem. The referenced arrival-process definition is shared infrastructure; the two-price revenue and stopping model are specific to this paper.
Selected references
- Y. Feng and G. Gallego, Optimal Starting Times for End-of-Season Sales and Optimal Stopping Times for Promotional Fares, Management Science 41(8), 1995, pp. 1371–1391. DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.41.8.1371.