Worst-Case Value-At-Risk and Robust Portfolio Optimization: A Conic Programming Approach 2: Closed Form of the Entropy-Constrained Worst-Case VaRResearch Paper
Motivation
Value-at-Risk (VaR) is the loss level that a portfolio exceeds with probability at most . It is the standard risk measure of banking regulation, and its classical computation assumes Gaussian returns: for a Gaussian return vector with mean and covariance it equals , where is the standard normal distribution function. Real returns are not exactly Gaussian, and a VaR computed from a misspecified distribution can badly understate risk.
El Ghaoui, Oks and Oustry (Oper. Res. 51(4), 2003) replace the single distribution by a class of distributions and define the worst-case VaR as the smallest loss level whose probability is at most under every distribution of the class. Their first class, distributions with a given mean and covariance, leads to the Chebyshev-type bound of their Theorem 1, whose worst case is attained by discrete distributions. §4.2 of the paper asks instead for distributions that stay close to a Gaussian, measured by relative entropy (Kullback–Leibler divergence). Such balls are the basic uncertainty sets of distributionally robust optimization and of robust control in economics (Hansen and Sargent's multiplier and constraint preferences), and they give a smooth worst case. Theorem 9 computes the resulting worst-case VaR in closed form.
Setting
Returns are random vectors and a portfolio is a vector with ; its return is . For a level the loss set is (Eq. 13 of the paper).
Given a class of probability distributions on and , the worst-case Value-at-Risk (Eq. 4) is
Fix a mean and a positive definite covariance , and let be the reference Gaussian. For the relative-entropy class (Eq. 43) is
with unless is absolutely continuous with respect to .
The risk factor (Eq. 45) is
and the Gaussian tail of the loss set is .
Formalization targets
Goal: Theorem 9 (p. 553)
For , , and , the minimum in (4) over exists and
Milestones
The milestones follow the proof of Theorem 9 on pp. 553–554, in attack order.
- Eq. (45). The two expressions of agree: .
- Gaussian tail. .
- Eq. (47). For , the Lagrangian is maximised over finite measures by the exponentially tilted density , with value
- Eq. (48). .
- Duality. .
- Inversion. For : some makes the dual value at most if and only if .
- Remark after Theorem 9. , so . The risk factor is strictly increasing in .
Significance
Theorem 9 says that an entropy ball around a Gaussian leaves the form of the Gaussian VaR unchanged: only the risk factor moves, from to , a scalar computed by a one-dimensional maximisation. The worst-case VaR therefore stays a convex function of whenever , and minimising it over a polytope of portfolios is a second-order cone program (problem (3) of the paper). The number is the largest with , which ties the result to the binary-divergence bounds used throughout information theory.
The theorem was proved in 2003. The worst-case-probability step (milestone 5) is an instance of the Donsker–Varadhan / Gibbs variational duality for relative-entropy balls, which the paper imports from the literature (Smith 1995). No machine-checked proof of Theorem 9 or of this duality on is known. A formalization would give a verified closed form for a relative-entropy distributionally robust chance constraint, and the duality and tilting lemmas would serve any mission on KL-ball robust optimization.
Difficulty
The obvious argument is Lagrangian duality for the infinite-dimensional problem . Weak duality and the pointwise maximisation that produces the tilted density are elementary. The difficulty is the step the paper cites rather than proves: that the duality gap is zero, and that the supremum over distributions equals the infimum of the dual over . The feasible set is a set of measures, the objective is an indicator, and the constraint is a divergence that is off a set of absolutely continuous measures, so a finite-dimensional Slater argument does not apply as stated.
The second difficulty is at the boundary of the parameters. At the supremum defining is approached only as , so the final inversion step behaves differently from . At the theorem is false, since every level is feasible and (4) has no minimum.
Formalization scope
Returns live in EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin n). is Mathlib's multivariateGaussian xhat Γ with Γ.PosDef, and is InformationTheory.klDiv, which is unless with integrable log-likelihood ratio and equals otherwise for probability measures. The class requires IsProbabilityMeasure P. is cdf (gaussianReal 0 1), and is defined as , which inverts on . The quadratic form is a double sum, and is written .
Conventions the Lean statements commit to:
- "min" in (4) is
IsLeastof the feasible set . "" is written "for every ", with probabilities compared in . - The paper prints . The mission assumes , because the goal is false at .
- is the paper's assumption that the admissible set of portfolios excludes .
- is a Lean
sSupof a set that is nonempty and bounded above by for , . - The duality of milestone 5 is stated as the existence of one real number that is both the least upper bound of the worst-case probabilities and the greatest lower bound of the dual values, not as an equality of Lean's
sSupandsInf. - Eq. (48) is stated as an attained minimum (
IsLeast), which the calculus gives. - Milestone 3 works with finite measures with integrable log-likelihood ratio in place of the paper's densities . It uses the complement of where the paper writes , which differs by a -null hyperplane.
- Milestone 6 assumes ; the goal keeps .
Restricting to , dropping IsProbabilityMeasure, or taking an arbitrary reference measure would trivialize or change the theorem. The class is the full KL ball around the nondegenerate Gaussian.
Infrastructure a complete development needs: the pushforward of a multivariate Gaussian under a linear functional (a one-dimensional Gaussian), the Gibbs variational principle for relative entropy, the strong duality for KL balls, and properties of and its quantile (continuity, strict monotonicity, symmetry ). The Gaussian-quantile and KL-ball duality lemmas are reusable beyond this mission. Contributions of any of these as separate lemmas are welcome.
Selected references
- L. El Ghaoui, M. Oks, F. Oustry, Worst-Case Value-at-Risk and Robust Portfolio Optimization: A Conic Programming Approach, Operations Research 51(4):543–556, 2003. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.51.4.543.16101
- J. E. Smith, Generalized Chebychev Inequalities: Theory and Applications in Decision Analysis, Operations Research 43(5):807–825, 1995. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.43.5.807
- M. D. Donsker, S. R. S. Varadhan, Asymptotic evaluation of certain Markov process expectations for large time, I, Communications on Pure and Applied Mathematics 28(1):1–47, 1975. https://doi.org/10.1002/cpa.3160280102
- L. P. Hansen, T. J. Sargent, Robust Control and Model Uncertainty, American Economic Review 91(2):60–66, 2001. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.91.2.60