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The OR Formalization Drive

Help us formalize the operations research literature in Lean.

1094 missions

Missions

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Convex OptimizationOperations ResearchStatistics·Captain: mikedeng1

Conditional Logit Analysis of Qualitative Choice Behavior 3: The Conditional Logit Likelihood Has a Maximum Exactly When No Direction Makes Every Observed Choice Weakly BestResearch Paper

Motivation

The conditional logit model is the workhorse of discrete choice analysis in transportation, marketing, labour and industrial organization. McFadden's 1974 chapter derived it from a theory of population choice behaviour and showed how to estimate it by maximum likelihood; this line of work was recognized by his 2000 Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences, awarded for theory and methods of discrete choice analysis. Every applied logit estimation rests on a basic question: does the maximum likelihood estimate exist for the sample at hand? In small samples it may not. When one alternative is always chosen whenever it is available, the likelihood keeps increasing as a parameter tends to infinity, and numerical optimizers report diverging coefficients. This failure is known in the binary case as complete or quasi-complete separation. McFadden's Lemma 3 gives the exact condition, for the multinomial conditional logit model with general alternative sets, under which a maximizer exists.

Timeline. Berkson (1951, 1955) popularized binomial logit; multinomial versions were developed by Gurland (1960), Bloch (1967), Rassam (1971), McFadden (1968) and Theil (1969, 1970). McFadden (1974) stated the existence criterion for the conditional logit likelihood (Lemma 3) together with a quadratic-programming test for it (Lemma 4). Albert and Anderson (1984) later classified separation patterns for binary and multinomial logistic regression, and Haberman (1974) treated existence for log-linear models.

Setting

A choice experiment has N≥1N \ge 1N≥1 trials. Trial nnn offers an alternative set of JnJ_nJn​ alternatives, indexed i=1,…,Jni = 1,\dots,J_ni=1,…,Jn​, each described by an attribute vector zin∈RKz_{in} \in \mathbb{R}^Kzin​∈RK (the values of KKK specified functions of the individual's and the alternative's characteristics). Trial nnn is repeated Rn≥1R_n \ge 1Rn​≥1 times, and alternative iii is chosen SinS_{in}Sin​ times, so Rn=∑jSjnR_n = \sum_{j} S_{jn}Rn​=∑j​Sjn​.

For a parameter θ∈RK\theta \in \mathbb{R}^Kθ∈RK, with zinθz_{in}\thetazin​θ the inner product, the selection probabilities are

Pin(θ)=ezinθ∑j=1Jnezjnθ(16)P_{in}(\theta) = \frac{e^{z_{in}\theta}}{\sum_{j=1}^{J_n} e^{z_{jn}\theta}} \qquad (16)Pin​(θ)=∑j=1Jn​​ezjn​θezin​θ​(16)

and the log-likelihood of the sample is

L(θ)=C−∑n=1N∑i=1JnSinlog⁡∑j=1Jne(zjn−zin)θ,C=∑n=1N[log⁡Rn!−∑j=1Jnlog⁡Sjn!].(18)L(\theta) = C - \sum_{n=1}^N \sum_{i=1}^{J_n} S_{in} \log \sum_{j=1}^{J_n} e^{(z_{jn} - z_{in})\theta}, \qquad C = \sum_{n=1}^N \Big[\log R_n! - \sum_{j=1}^{J_n}\log S_{jn}!\Big]. \qquad (18)L(θ)=C−n=1∑N​i=1∑Jn​​Sin​logj=1∑Jn​​e(zjn​−zin​)θ,C=n=1∑N​[logRn​!−j=1∑Jn​​logSjn​!].(18)

Write zˉn(θ)=∑izinPin(θ)\bar z_n(\theta) = \sum_i z_{in}P_{in}(\theta)zˉn​(θ)=∑i​zin​Pin​(θ) for the probability-weighted mean attribute vector of trial nnn.

Axiom 5 (Full Rank). The (∑nJn)×K\big(\sum_n J_n\big)\times K(∑n​Jn​)×K matrix with rows zin−zˉnz_{in} - \bar z_nzin​−zˉn​ has rank KKK.

Axiom 6. There is no nonzero γ∈RK\gamma \in \mathbb{R}^Kγ∈RK with Sin(zjn−zin)γ≤0S_{in}(z_{jn} - z_{in})\gamma \le 0Sin​(zjn​−zin​)γ≤0 for all i,j=1,…,Jni, j = 1,\dots,J_ni,j=1,…,Jn​ and n=1,…,Nn = 1,\dots,Nn=1,…,N. Equivalently, no nonzero direction makes every observed choice weakly best in its alternative set.

Formalization targets

Goal: Lemma 3

Under Axiom 5,

(∃ θ^∈RK, ∀θ, L(θ)≤L(θ^))  ⟺  Axiom 6.\big(\exists\, \hat\theta \in \mathbb{R}^K,\ \forall \theta,\ L(\theta) \le L(\hat\theta)\big) \iff \text{Axiom 6}.(∃θ^∈RK, ∀θ, L(θ)≤L(θ^))⟺Axiom 6.

Milestones

  1. Equation (19): the gradient ∂L/∂θ=∑n∑j(Sjn−RnPjn)zjn\partial L/\partial\theta = \sum_n \sum_j (S_{jn} - R_nP_{jn}) z_{jn}∂L/∂θ=∑n​∑j​(Sjn​−Rn​Pjn​)zjn​.
  2. Equation (20): the Hessian ∂2L/∂θ ∂θ′=−∑nRn∑j(zjn−zˉn)′Pjn(zjn−zˉn)\partial^2L/\partial\theta\,\partial\theta' = -\sum_n R_n \sum_j (z_{jn} - \bar z_n)'P_{jn}(z_{jn} - \bar z_n)∂2L/∂θ∂θ′=−∑n​Rn​∑j​(zjn​−zˉn​)′Pjn​(zjn​−zˉn​).
  3. LLL is concave, and every critical point is a global maximizer.
  4. A Hessian that is nonsingular everywhere makes LLL strictly concave with at most one maximizer.
  5. Axiom 5 holds at θ\thetaθ if and only if the Hessian at θ\thetaθ is negative definite.
  6. Necessity: under Axiom 5, a maximizer forces Axiom 6.
  7. Equation (21): under Axiom 6, b(γ)=max⁡nmax⁡i,jSin(zjn−zin)γb(\gamma) = \max_n \max_{i,j} S_{in}(z_{jn}-z_{in})\gammab(γ)=maxn​maxi,j​Sin​(zjn​−zin​)γ has a positive lower bound b∗b^*b∗ on the unit sphere.
  8. The bound L(θ)−C≤−b∗∣θ∣L(\theta) - C \le -b^*|\theta|L(θ)−C≤−b∗∣θ∣ for all θ\thetaθ.
  9. Sufficiency: Axiom 6 gives a maximizer.

Significance

Lemma 3 tells the practitioner when the conditional logit maximum likelihood estimate exists, before any numerical optimization is attempted. It is a linear-inequality condition on the data alone, so it can be checked by linear or quadratic programming (Lemma 4 of the same paper). The existence of the estimator is also the first step of McFadden's asymptotic theory: Lemma 5 shows that Axiom 6 holds with probability tending to one, and Lemma 6, consistency and asymptotic normality, concerns the estimator whose existence Lemma 3 characterizes. The concavity and Hessian formulas (19)–(20) are the basis of the Newton–Raphson computation of the estimator and of its asymptotic covariance matrix.

The result has been proved since 1974 and is classical. To our knowledge it has no machine-checked proof; Mathlib has no statement about the existence of logit or softmax-regression maximum likelihood estimates. Formalizing it produces a verified existence criterion for the multinomial logit likelihood, verified gradient and Hessian formulas for log-sum-exp likelihoods with repeated observations, and a verified link between full column rank and strict concavity.

Difficulty

The likelihood is concave, and concave functions on RK\mathbb{R}^KRK need not attain their supremum. Concavity alone therefore gives nothing, and existence must come from a growth condition. The obvious approach, "the likelihood is bounded above by CCC, hence attains its maximum", fails: LLL is bounded but can approach its supremum only at infinity, which is exactly the separation case. Sufficiency needs a quantitative rate at which LLL decreases, uniform over all directions; a direction-by-direction argument does not suffice. Necessity requires strict concavity, which is where Axiom 5 and the requirement that every trial be observed enter. A trial with Rn=0R_n = 0Rn​=0 can supply the rank of Axiom 5 while contributing nothing to LLL, so with such a trial necessity fails. The calculus part, (19)–(20), involves differentiating sums of log-sum-exp terms over dependent index types and identifying the result with a weighted covariance operator.

Formalization scope

  • Representation. RK\mathbb{R}^KRK is EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin K), so ∣θ∣=(θ′θ)1/2|\theta| = (\theta'\theta)^{1/2}∣θ∣=(θ′θ)1/2 is the Euclidean norm and zθz\thetazθ is the inner product ⟪z, θ⟫. Trials are Fin N, alternatives of trial nnn are Fin (J n), and the counts SinS_{in}Sin​ are natural numbers.
  • Data structure. The structure Data K bundles NNN, JJJ, zzz, SSS and the standing assumptions N≥1N \ge 1N≥1 and Rn=∑iSin≥1R_n = \sum_i S_{in} \ge 1Rn​=∑i​Sin​≥1 for every trial; these make the trial and alternative index sets nonempty.
  • Axioms 1–4 are built in. The model is the logit form (16) with vvv linear in θ\thetaθ (Axiom 4), so "Suppose Axioms 1–5 hold" becomes "Data plus Axiom 5".
  • Axiom 5 is read at every θ\thetaθ. The row space of the matrix does not depend on θ\thetaθ.
  • Hessian. The Hessian is the Fréchet derivative of the gradient vector field (19), as a continuous linear map.
  • The maximizer is global over all of RK\mathbb{R}^KRK. Neither a local maximizer nor "L(θ^)≥L(0)L(\hat\theta) \ge L(0)L(θ^)≥L(0)" is acceptable as the goal; that would make it trivial.
  • Infrastructure. Gradients and Hessians of log-sum-exp with dependent finite index types; positive definiteness from full column rank; attainment of the maximum of a coercive continuous function on a finite-dimensional space. The calculus lemmas are reusable for any multinomial logit or softmax likelihood. Missions 4 and 5 of this series reuse the same model. Contributions of general log-sum-exp lemmas, independent of this mission's definitions, are welcome.

Selected references

  • D. McFadden, Conditional logit analysis of qualitative choice behavior, in P. Zarembka (ed.), Frontiers in Econometrics, Academic Press, New York, 1974, pp. 105–142. https://eml.berkeley.edu/reprints/mcfadden/zarembka.pdf
  • A. Albert and J. A. Anderson, On the existence of maximum likelihood estimates in logistic regression models, Biometrika 71(1), 1984, pp. 1–10. https://doi.org/10.1093/biomet/71.1.1
  • S. J. Haberman, The Analysis of Frequency Data, University of Chicago Press, 1974.
  • J. Berkson, Maximum likelihood and minimum χ² estimates of the logistic function, Journal of the American Statistical Association 50, 1955, pp. 130–162. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1955.10501255
12 thms3 active usersReviewed
🏆Completed
CombinatoricsOperations Research·Captain: mikedeng1

On the Abstract Properties of Linear Dependence 3: Two Elements Share a Component Iff Some Circuit Contains BothResearch Paper

Motivation

Hassler Whitney's 1935 paper On the Abstract Properties of Linear Dependence introduced matroids: finite sets of elements carrying an abstract rank function that behaves like the rank of a set of vectors. Part II of the paper opens with the decomposition of a matroid into components. The question it answers is basic to every later use of matroids: when does a matroid split into independent pieces, and how can the pieces be recognized?

For the matroid of a graph (elements = edges, rank = number of vertices minus number of connected pieces spanned) the components are the 2-connected blocks of the graph, and Whitney's theorem recovers the classical fact that two edges lie in a common block exactly when they lie on a common cycle. Whitney had studied separability of graphs in Non-separable and planar graphs (1932), and footnote 11 of the 1935 paper points out that the theorem identifies König's "Glieder" of a graph with components. Matroid connectivity built on this notion runs through later structure theory: Tutte's higher connectivity, Seymour's decomposition of regular matroids, and the matroid minors project all start from the separation of a matroid into components.

Setting

A matroid MMM on a finite ground set EEE is given here by Mathlib's Matroid structure, with rank function r(X)r(X)r(X) for X⊆EX\subseteq EX⊆E (Mathlib's M.eRk X) and circuits, the minimal dependent sets (M.IsCircuit). Whitney treats every subset X⊆EX\subseteq EX⊆E as a matroid in its own right, a submatroid, with the rank function of MMM restricted to subsets of XXX. For sets he writes M1+M2M_1+M_2M1​+M2​ for the union, ρ(N)\rho(N)ρ(N) for the number of elements of NNN, and

n(N)=ρ(N)−r(N)n(N) = \rho(N) - r(N)n(N)=ρ(N)−r(N)

for the nullity of NNN.

Rank is subadditive: r(X1+X2)≤r(X1)+r(X2)r(X_1+X_2)\le r(X_1)+r(X_2)r(X1​+X2​)≤r(X1​)+r(X2​). A submatroid XXX is separable if it can be divided into two disjoint groups X1,X2X_1, X_2X1​,X2​, each containing at least one element, with

r(X)=r(X1)+r(X2),r(X) = r(X_1) + r(X_2),r(X)=r(X1​)+r(X2​),

and non-separable otherwise. Every single element is non-separable. A component of MMM is a maximal non-separable part of MMM: a nonempty non-separable set K⊆EK\subseteq EK⊆E contained in no strictly larger non-separable subset of EEE.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 19

For two distinct elements e1≠e2e_1\neq e_2e1​=e2​ of EEE,

(∃K component of M: e1,e2∈K)  ⟺  (∃P circuit of M: e1,e2∈P).\bigl(\exists K \text{ component of } M:\ e_1, e_2\in K\bigr) \iff \bigl(\exists P \text{ circuit of } M:\ e_1, e_2\in P\bigr).(∃K component of M: e1​,e2​∈K)⟺(∃P circuit of M: e1​,e2​∈P).

Components are defined by the rank function, circuits by dependence; the goal asserts that the two descriptions agree.

Milestones (§10, in the paper's order)

  • Theorem 11. If r(M1+M2)=r(M1)+r(M2)r(M_1+M_2)=r(M_1)+r(M_2)r(M1​+M2​)=r(M1​)+r(M2​), M1′⊆M1M_1'\subseteq M_1M1′​⊆M1​ and M2′⊆M2M_2'\subseteq M_2M2′​⊆M2​, then r(M1′+M2′)=r(M1′)+r(M2′)r(M_1'+M_2')=r(M_1')+r(M_2')r(M1′​+M2′​)=r(M1′​)+r(M2′​).
  • Theorem 12. Under the same rank additivity, a non-separable M′⊆M1+M2M'\subseteq M_1+M_2M′⊆M1​+M2​ lies in M1M_1M1​ or in M2M_2M2​.
  • Theorem 13. Two non-separable sets with a common element have a non-separable union.
  • Theorem 14. Distinct components are disjoint.
  • Theorem 15. The components cover EEE, and no other family of components does.
  • Theorem 16. A set is non-separable of nullity 111 if and only if it is a circuit.
  • Lemma 9. If M1+M2M_1+M_2M1​+M2​ is non-separable, with M1,M2M_1, M_2M1​,M2​ nonempty and disjoint, some circuit inside M1+M2M_1+M_2M1​+M2​ meets both.
  • Theorem 17. A non-separable set of nullity n>0n>0n>0 is built from a circuit by n−1n-1n−1 steps, each adding a set of elements that forms a circuit with elements already present, through non-separable sets of nullity 1,2,…,n1,2,\dots,n1,2,…,n.
  • Theorem 18. For distinct nonempty non-separable M1,…,MpM_1,\dots,M_pM1​,…,Mp​ covering EEE, the following are equivalent: they are the components; they are pairwise disjoint and no circuit meets two of them; r(E)=∑ir(Mi)r(E)=\sum_i r(M_i)r(E)=∑i​r(Mi​).

Significance

The result. Theorem 19 makes the component decomposition computable from circuits alone and shows that "lying on a common circuit" is an equivalence relation on distinct elements, a fact that is not evident from the circuit axioms. Theorem 18 adds that the decomposition is the unique one with additive rank. Together they are the starting point of matroid connectivity: the direct-sum decomposition of a matroid, the reduction of many matroid problems (representability, duality of components, Whitney's own Theorems 24–26 on duals of components) to the connected case, and the higher-connectivity theory that followed.

Formalizing it. The results are classical and proved in the paper; nothing here is open. To our knowledge Mathlib at the pinned revision has no notion of matroid connectivity or components, so this mission produces the first machine-checked development of Whitney's §10: the rank-based definition of separability, the disjoint decomposition into components, the circuit characterization, and the ear-type construction of non-separable matroids (Theorem 17). These are reusable for any later formalization of matroid connectivity, including Whitney's results on duals of components.

Difficulty

The two directions of Theorem 19 rest on different machinery. That two elements on a common circuit lie in one component follows from the rank theory (Theorems 13 and 16). The converse is the substantial direction: a component is defined by the failure of rank additivity, which only says that every division of the component is crossed by some circuit (Lemma 9). It does not directly give one circuit through two prescribed elements. Combining circuits that cross different divisions into a single circuit through both e1e_1e1​ and e2e_2e2​ requires the circuit elimination property together with a minimality argument over subsets of the component; the naive attempt of chaining overlapping circuits from e1e_1e1​ to e2e_2e2​ gives a connected chain of circuits, not one circuit.

Formalization scope

  • Representation. A matroid is Mathlib's Matroid α with [M.Finite]; Whitney's matroids are finite. A submatroid is a subset X⊆X\subseteqX⊆ M.E with the rank M.eRk restricted to its subsets; results that Whitney states for "a matroid M=M1+M2M = M_1 + M_2M=M1​+M2​" are stated for subsets of an ambient finite matroid, which is the same statement applied to the submatroid M1+M2M_1+M_2M1​+M2​.
  • Ranks are Mathlib's ℕ∞-valued M.eRk, finite on a finite matroid, so (10.1) is an equation of natural numbers. Nullity is computed in Z\mathbb ZZ as the number of elements minus the rank.
  • Definitions. IsSeparable M X requires two nonempty, disjoint groups with union XXX and additive rank; without nonemptiness every set would be separable. IsNonSeparable M X adds X⊆X\subseteqX⊆ M.E. IsComponent M K requires KKK nonempty, non-separable, and maximal; nonemptiness excludes the empty set, which is vacuously non-separable.
  • Tacit hypotheses made explicit. In Theorem 19 the two elements are distinct: for e1=e2e_1=e_2e1​=e2​ a coloop is its own component and lies on no circuit. In Theorem 18 the sets M1,…,MpM_1,\dots,M_pM1​,…,Mp​ are distinct and nonempty: a loop listed twice would satisfy (3) but not (2), and an empty set would satisfy (2) and (3) but not (1). In Theorems 11 and 12 the two parts need not be disjoint, as Whitney's use of M1+M2M_1+M_2M1​+M2​ for overlapping sets in Theorem 13 indicates; the statements hold in that generality.
  • Ruled out. Components must not be defined as the classes of the relation "lie on a common circuit": that would make the goal a tautology. Here they are the rank-defined maximal non-separable sets of §10, and circuits are Mathlib's Matroid.IsCircuit.
  • Infrastructure. Solvers will need submodularity of M.eRk and circuit elimination (both in Mathlib), the relation between circuits of M ↾ X and circuits of M inside XXX (Matroid.restrict_isCircuit_iff), and finiteness arguments for maximal non-separable sets. Proofs of the milestones, alternative proofs of the goal, and lemmas relating components to Mathlib's direct sums of matroids are all welcome.

Selected references

  • H. Whitney, On the Abstract Properties of Linear Dependence, American Journal of Mathematics 57 (1935), 509–533. https://doi.org/10.2307/2371182
  • H. Whitney, Non-separable and planar graphs, Transactions of the American Mathematical Society 34 (1932), 339–362. https://doi.org/10.1090/S0002-9947-1932-1501641-2
  • D. König, Acta Litterarum ac Scientiarum Szeged, vol. 6, pp. 155–179, as cited by Whitney in footnote 11 (p. 159 for the notion of "Glied").
  • J. Oxley, Matroid Theory, 2nd ed., Oxford University Press, 2011, Chapter 4 (connectivity).
13 thms2 active usersReviewed
Markov ChainOperations ResearchProbability+1·Captain: mikedeng1

On the Stochastic Matrices Associated with Certain Queuing Processes 2: The GI/M/1 Imbedded Chain Is Ergodic iff ρ < 1 and Recurrent iff ρ ≤ 1Research Paper

Motivation

A single-server queue in which customers arrive according to a renewal process and are served in exponentially distributed times is the system GI/M/1. Observed just before successive arrivals, its queue length is a Markov chain on {0,1,2,… }\{0, 1, 2, \dots\}{0,1,2,…}, the imbedded chain introduced by D. G. Kendall (Kendall 1953, Ann. Math. Statist. 24, pp. 338–354). Whether this chain settles into a statistical equilibrium, keeps returning to the empty state without one, or drifts off to infinity is the first question asked about the queue, and every later quantity (stationary queue lengths, waiting-time distributions) presupposes the answer.

F. G. Foster's 1953 paper (Foster 1953) answers it for GI/M/1 and for M/G/1 by a different route from Kendall's direct analysis: it first proves general criteria, stated in terms of solutions of linear equations and inequalities in the transition matrix, for a countable Markov chain to be ergodic, recurrent or transient, and then checks them on the two queueing matrices. The criteria are of independent use; one of them (Theorem 2 of the paper) is now known as Foster's criterion, the starting point of the drift (Lyapunov-function) method for stability of Markov chains and queueing networks.

Timeline. Kendall (1951, J. Roy. Statist. Soc. B 13) studied queue-length processes directly, including a recurrence argument for M/G/1 that Foster's §3 reproduces; Kendall (1953) introduced the imbedded-chain method and, for GI/M/1, proved by it that ρ<1\rho < 1ρ<1 is sufficient for ergodicity (Foster 1953, p. 359); Foster (1953) proved the full classification, ergodic iff ρ<1\rho < 1ρ<1 and recurrent iff ρ≤1\rho \le 1ρ≤1, by the general criteria. This mission treats the GI/M/1 half; a companion mission treats M/G/1.

Setting

A transition matrix on the states {0,1,2,… }\{0, 1, 2, \dots\}{0,1,2,…} is an array [pij][p_{ij}][pij​] of nonnegative reals whose rows sum to 111. For a state jjj, fjjf_{jj}fjj​ is the probability that the chain started at jjj returns to jjj at some later step. The chain is recurrent if fjj=1f_{jj} = 1fjj​=1 for every jjj, transient if fjj<1f_{jj} < 1fjj​<1 for every jjj, and ergodic (recurrent-nonnull, positive recurrent) if moreover every mean recurrence time ∑nnfjj(n)\sum_n n f^{(n)}_{jj}∑n​nfjj(n)​ is finite. Foster's general theorems concern an irreducible chain (every state reachable from every state), assumed aperiodic for simplicity.

The GI/M/1 chain is described by a sequence a=(an)n≥0a = (a_n)_{n \ge 0}a=(an​)n≥0​ of positive numbers with ∑nan=1\sum_n a_n = 1∑n​an​=1: ana_nan​ is the probability that exactly nnn services are completed between two arrivals. With the tails αi=∑j≥i+1aj\alpha_i = \sum_{j \ge i+1} a_jαi​=∑j≥i+1​aj​,

[pij]=[α0a000⋯α1a1a00⋯α2a2a1a0⋯⋮⋮⋮⋮],[p_{ij}] = \begin{bmatrix} \alpha_0 & a_0 & 0 & 0 & \cdots \\ \alpha_1 & a_1 & a_0 & 0 & \cdots \\ \alpha_2 & a_2 & a_1 & a_0 & \cdots \\ \vdots & \vdots & \vdots & \vdots & \end{bmatrix},[pij​]=​α0​α1​α2​⋮​a0​a1​a2​⋮​0a0​a1​⋮​00a0​⋮​⋯⋯⋯​​,

that is pi0=αip_{i0} = \alpha_ipi0​=αi​, pij=ai+1−jp_{ij} = a_{i+1-j}pij​=ai+1−j​ for 1≤j≤i+11 \le j \le i+11≤j≤i+1, and pij=0p_{ij} = 0pij​=0 for j>i+1j > i+1j>i+1. In Lean this matrix is gim1Matrix a. The traffic parameter ρ\rhoρ is defined through its inverse,

ρ−1=∑n=1∞n an∈(0,∞],\rho^{-1} = \sum_{n=1}^{\infty} n\, a_n \in (0, \infty],ρ−1=n=1∑∞​nan​∈(0,∞],

the mean number of service completions per interarrival interval (rhoInv a, and rho a =ρ= \rho=ρ).

Formalization targets

Goal: the classification of GI/M/1 (§4, p. 359)

the chain is ergodic  ⟺  ρ<1,the chain is recurrent  ⟺  ρ≤1.\text{the chain is ergodic} \iff \rho < 1, \qquad \text{the chain is recurrent} \iff \rho \le 1 .the chain is ergodic⟺ρ<1,the chain is recurrent⟺ρ≤1.

Together: ergodic for ρ<1\rho < 1ρ<1, recurrent-null for ρ=1\rho = 1ρ=1, transient for ρ>1\rho > 1ρ>1. The statement carries no constants and leaves the sequence aaa free apart from positivity and normalization.

Milestones

  1. Theorem 7 (p. 358): for a probability distribution {pn}\{p_n\}{pn​} with p0>0p_0 > 0p0​>0, the equation ∑n≥0znpn=z\sum_{n \ge 0} z^n p_n = z∑n≥0​znpn​=z has a root in (0,1)(0, 1)(0,1) iff ∑n≥1npn>1\sum_{n\ge1} n p_n > 1∑n≥1​npn​>1.
  2. Theorem 1, sufficiency (p. 355): a nonnull solution of ∑ixipij=xj\sum_i x_i p_{ij} = x_j∑i​xi​pij​=xj​ with ∑i∣xi∣<∞\sum_i |x_i| < \infty∑i​∣xi​∣<∞ makes the system ergodic.
  3. Theorem 1, necessity (p. 355): in an ergodic system every nonnegative solution of ∑ixipij≤xj\sum_i x_i p_{ij} \le x_j∑i​xi​pij​≤xj​ has ∑ixi<∞\sum_i x_i < \infty∑i​xi​<∞.
  4. Theorem 4 (pp. 356–357): the system is transient iff ∑jpijyj=yi\sum_j p_{ij} y_j = y_i∑j​pij​yj​=yi​ (i≠0i \ne 0i=0) has a bounded nonconstant solution.

Milestones 2–4 are stated for a general irreducible aperiodic chain.

Significance

The classification tells exactly when the GI/M/1 queue is stable: the stationary distribution of the imbedded chain, which is geometric, exists precisely in the ergodic case ρ<1\rho < 1ρ<1, and for ρ>1\rho > 1ρ>1 the queue grows without bound. Theorems 1 and 4 are general tools, reusable for any countable chain: Theorem 1 characterizes ergodicity by summable invariant vectors, Theorem 4 characterizes transience by bounded harmonic functions off one state. Theorem 7 is the extinction criterion of branching processes and recurs throughout applied probability.

All of these results are proved in the literature (Foster 1953; Feller's textbook for Theorem 7 and a version of Theorem 4). As far as a search of the platform shows, none of them has a machine-checked proof; the platform holds related special cases for the G/M/1 queue with a specific interarrival law (QueueingFundamentals.GM1.unique_root_unit_interval, open), but not the general lemma or the classification. A formalization would provide the general criteria as reusable library results and the first verified stability classification of a non-Markovian queue's imbedded chain.

Difficulty

The matrix is explicit, but none of the three properties is a finite computation: ergodicity and recurrence are statements about return times over all horizons, so each direction must go through an existence or nonexistence statement about infinite systems of equations. For the converse directions the obvious argument fails: exhibiting a candidate solution such as xi≡1x_i \equiv 1xi​≡1 shows nothing until it is known that ergodicity forces every such solution to be summable, and showing that no bounded nonconstant solution of (7) exists when ρ<1\rho < 1ρ<1 requires control of all solutions, not of one. The general criteria themselves rest on limit theorems for pij(n)p_{ij}^{(n)}pij(n)​ and on interchanging infinite sums, and the infinite-mean case ∑nan=∞\sum n a_n = \infty∑nan​=∞ has to be carried along everywhere.

Formalization scope

  • The Markov-chain vocabulary is the published definition QueueingFundamentals_Foundations_MarkovChain: TransitionMatrix (entries p, nonnegativity, rows summing to 111 via HasSum), returnProb, meanRecurrenceTime, Irreducible, Aperiodic, PositiveRecurrent. "Ergodic" is PositiveRecurrent. IsRecurrent and IsTransient are defined state by state from returnProb; their complementarity for irreducible chains is a theorem, not a definition.
  • States are indexed from 000, as in the paper. The goal quantifies over every TransitionMatrix whose entries equal gim1Matrix a; such a matrix exists for every admissible aaa (rows sum to 111), so the statement is not vacuous.
  • ρ−1\rho^{-1}ρ−1 and ρ\rhoρ live in [0,∞][0, \infty][0,∞] (ℝ≥0∞), with ∞−1=0\infty^{-1} = 0∞−1=0: an infinite mean gives ρ=0\rho = 0ρ=0, and that chain is ergodic.
  • The goal does not assume irreducibility or aperiodicity: they follow from an>0a_n > 0an​>0. Milestones 2–4 carry them, as the paper's standing assumptions (§1).
  • Every infinite series appearing in a hypothesis is required to converge (HasSum or Summable), so that a divergent series cannot satisfy an equation or inequality vacuously. In Theorem 1's sufficiency half the xix_ixi​ may be of either sign. In Theorem 7 the distribution is renamed qqq to avoid a clash with pijp_{ij}pij​.
  • Ruled out as trivializing: defining ρ\rhoρ by a real inverse of a real series, defining "ergodic" as the existence of a summable invariant vector (which is Theorem 1's condition), or stating the goal over a matrix that need not exist.
  • Not included: the paper's explicit description of the solutions of (7) for ρ≥1\rho \ge 1ρ≥1 via the generating function (1−z){A(z)−z}−1(1 - z)\{A(z) - z\}^{-1}(1−z){A(z)−z}−1, and the M/G/1 half (Theorems 2, 3, 5), which is the companion mission. Contributions welcome: proofs of the general criteria (reusable for any countable chain), of Theorem 7, and lemmas on the GI/M/1 matrix such as irreducibility and aperiodicity.

Selected references

  • F. G. Foster, On the stochastic matrices associated with certain queuing processes, Ann. Math. Statist. 24 (1953), 355–360. https://doi.org/10.1214/aoms/1177728976
  • D. G. Kendall, Stochastic processes occurring in the theory of queues and their analysis by the method of the imbedded Markov chain, Ann. Math. Statist. 24 (1953), 338–354 (the paper immediately preceding Foster's in the same issue).
  • D. G. Kendall, Some problems in the theory of queues, J. Roy. Statist. Soc. B 13 (1951), 151–185.
  • W. Feller, An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications, Vol. 1, Wiley, 1950.
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On the Abstract Properties of Linear Dependence 6: Every Matroid Satisfying (C*) Is Represented by a Matrix of Integers Mod 2Research Paper

Motivation

Whitney's 1935 paper introduced matroids as an abstraction of linear dependence among the columns of a matrix. Most of the paper works over the real numbers; its appendix asks which matroids arise from matrices of integers mod 2, that is, matrices with entries 0 and 1 in which rank and dependence are computed over the two-element field. These are today's binary matroids. They include the cycle matroids of graphs (Whitney closes the paper by noting that graphs correspond to mod-2 matrices with exactly two ones in each column) and they are the setting of several later structure theorems: Tutte's excluded-minor characterization of binary matroids (Tutte 1958), Seymour's decomposition of regular matroids (Seymour 1980) and Seymour's theory of binary clutters and max-flow min-cut (Seymour 1977), which underlies parts of combinatorial optimization.

Whitney's answer is an intrinsic postulate, (C*), on the circuits of the matroid, stated without reference to any matrix, and a constructive representation theorem (Theorem 37): a matroid satisfying (C*) is the matroid of a mod-2 matrix, and the matrix is unique once the columns of one base are fixed.

Setting

A matroid MMM on elements e1,…,ene_1, \dots, e_ne1​,…,en​ is given by its independent sets; its circuits are its minimal dependent sets, its rank r(M)r(M)r(M) is the size of a base, and its nullity is n(M)=n−r(M)n(M) = n - r(M)n(M)=n−r(M). Here MMM is a Mathlib Matroid (Fin n) whose ground set is all of Fin n.

Subsets of the elements are added mod 2: a sum of finitely many sets is the set of elements lying in an odd number of them (for two sets, the symmetric difference). A cycle is a sum mod 2 of circuits; the empty sum is the null cycle ∅\emptyset∅. A set is a true sum of sets that have no common elements and whose union it is. Postulate (C*) requires that each cycle be a true sum of circuits.

With n=r+qn = r + qn=r+q, a family P1,…,PqP_1, \dots, P_qP1​,…,Pq​ is a strict fundamental set of circuits with respect to en−q+1,…,ene_{n-q+1}, \dots, e_nen−q+1​,…,en​ if q=n(M)q = n(M)q=n(M), each PiP_iPi​ is a circuit, and PiP_iPi​ contains en−q+ie_{n-q+i}en−q+i​ but no other en−q+je_{n-q+j}en−q+j​.

For a matrix M\mathbf MM over the integers mod 2 with columns C1,…,CnC_1, \dots, C_nC1​,…,Cn​, columns are independent (mod 2) if no non-null subset of them sums to the zero column. The matroid corresponding to M\mathbf MM has the column indices as elements and these independent sets.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 37 (p. 533)

Let MMM satisfy (C*), with elements e1,…,ene_1, \dots, e_ne1​,…,en​ and base {e1,…,en−q}\{e_1, \dots, e_{n-q}\}{e1​,…,en−q​}. For every matrix M1\mathbf M_1M1​ mod 2 (any number of rows) whose n−qn - qn−q columns are independent mod 2,

∃! M=(M1∣Cn−q+1⋯Cn)  whose corresponding matroid is M.\exists!\ \mathbf M = (\mathbf M_1 \mid C_{n-q+1} \cdots C_n) \ \text{ whose corresponding matroid is } M.∃! M=(M1​∣Cn−q+1​⋯Cn​)  whose corresponding matroid is M.

Milestones

  1. Theorem 9 (p. 517): if e1,…,en−qe_1, \dots, e_{n-q}e1​,…,en−q​ is a base, there is a unique strict fundamental set of circuits with respect to en−q+1,…,ene_{n-q+1}, \dots, e_nen−q+1​,…,en​.
  2. Appendix, p. 531: (C*) implies the circuit postulate (C₂), for any family of sets.
  3. Theorem 33: under (C*), the circuits are exactly the minimal non-null cycles.
  4. Theorem 34: under (C*), the cycles are exactly the 2q2^q2q sums mod 2 of a strict fundamental set.
  5. Theorem 35: two (C*)-matroids with a common strict fundamental set have the same circuits.
  6. Theorem 36: any P1,…,PqP_1, \dots, P_qP1​,…,Pq​ with en−q+i∈Pi⊆{e1,…,en−q,en−q+i}e_{n-q+i} \in P_i \subseteq \{e_1, \dots, e_{n-q}, e_{n-q+i}\}en−q+i​∈Pi​⊆{e1​,…,en−q​,en−q+i​} is the strict fundamental set of exactly one (C*)-matroid.
  7. Appendix, p. 532: the matroid of a matrix mod 2 exists, satisfies (C*), and its cycles are the supports of the mod-2 dependencies among the columns.

Milestone 7 and the goal together characterize binary matroids as the matroids satisfying (C*).

Significance

The result. Theorem 37 and the p. 532 claim give an intrinsic, matrix-free description of the matroids representable over the two-element field, and Theorem 36 parametrizes all of them by qqq arbitrary subsets of a base. Uniqueness in Theorem 37 says that a binary representation is determined by the columns of one base; in modern terms, binary matroids are uniquely representable over GF(2) up to row operations. Every later theory of binary matroids, including graphic and cographic matroids, Tutte's excluded-minor theorem and Seymour's decomposition, starts from this equivalence.

Formalizing it. The results are proved in the paper and in textbooks (e.g. Oxley, Matroid Theory, Ch. 9) but, at the Mathlib revision used here, there is no notion of a matroid represented by a matrix over a field, and no binary-matroid theory. On Prove2Me, the existing binary objects (SeymourMFMC.Binary.*) are binary clutters defined through blockers, not matroids represented by mod-2 matrices. This mission produces the representation predicate for mod-2 matrices, the cycle space of a matroid, and the equivalence between (C*) and binary representability.

Difficulty

Writing down candidate columns is not the hard part; showing that the matroid of the completed matrix is MMM itself, and not merely a matroid sharing some of its circuits, is. Whitney's example at the end of §9 exhibits two different matroids with a common strict fundamental set, so agreement on fundamental circuits does not by itself identify a matroid; any argument must use (C*) on both the given matroid and the matroid of the matrix. A naive comparison of independent sets column by column does not close this gap. Uniqueness likewise depends on the independence mod 2 of the prescribed columns: without it, different completions can give the same matroid.

Formalization scope

  • Matroids are Mathlib Matroid (Fin (r + q)) with ground set Set.univ; Whitney's eke_kek​ is k - 1, his e1,…,en−qe_1, \dots, e_{n-q}e1​,…,en−q​ is the range of Fin.castAdd q, and en−q+ie_{n-q+i}en−q+i​ is Fin.natAdd r (i - 1). Writing n=r+qn = r + qn=r+q removes natural-number subtraction; qqq is not a free parameter, since {e1,…,er}\{e_1, \dots, e_r\}{e1​,…,er​} is required to be a base.
  • Sums mod 2 count parity of membership (sumMod2); cycles are sums over finite sets of circuits; true sums are unions over finite pairwise-disjoint sets of circuits; (C*) is SatisfiesCStar on the circuit family {C | M.IsCircuit C}. These definitions take the circuit family as a parameter, so that the (C₂) milestone is posed for an arbitrary family of sets, as Whitney poses it.
  • A strict fundamental set includes the nullity condition r(M)+q=ρ(M)r(M) + q = \rho(M)r(M)+q=ρ(M), stated in N∞\mathbb N_\inftyN∞​.
  • Matrices are Matrix (Fin m) (Fin n) (ZMod 2) with any mmm; independence mod 2 of columns is LinearIndepOn (ZMod 2) of the columns (the rows of the transpose). IsMatroidOf M A compares all independent sets, not only bases.
  • Ruled out: the goal is not satisfied by any statement that compares only the bases of one size, by an existence-only statement without uniqueness, or by real (instead of mod-2) independence.
  • Tacit hypotheses made explicit: the matroid's ground set is exactly e1,…,ene_1, \dots, e_ne1​,…,en​ (ρ(M)=n\rho(M) = nρ(M)=n); the elements and matroids are finite.

Contributions welcome: the general fact that the matroid of a vector family over a field exists (a reusable Matroid.ofFun-style construction over any field), the cycle-space lemmas, and proofs of the milestones in any order.

Selected references

  • H. Whitney, On the Abstract Properties of Linear Dependence, American Journal of Mathematics 57 (1935), 509–533. https://doi.org/10.2307/2371182
  • W. T. Tutte, A homotopy theorem for matroids, I, II, Transactions of the AMS 88 (1958), 144–174. https://doi.org/10.2307/1993244
  • P. D. Seymour, The matroids with the max-flow min-cut property, Journal of Combinatorial Theory Ser. B 23 (1977), 189–222. https://doi.org/10.1016/0095-8956(77)90031-4
  • P. D. Seymour, Decomposition of regular matroids, Journal of Combinatorial Theory Ser. B 28 (1980), 305–359. https://doi.org/10.1016/0095-8956(80)90075-1
  • J. Oxley, Matroid Theory, 2nd ed., Oxford University Press, 2011. https://doi.org/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198566946.001.0001
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On the Abstract Properties of Linear Dependence 5: The Seven-Element Fano Matroid Corresponds to No Real MatrixResearch Paper

Motivation

Whitney's 1935 paper On the Abstract Properties of Linear Dependence introduced matroids: finite sets equipped with a rank function, or equivalently a family of independent sets, obeying a few postulates abstracted from the linear dependence of the columns of a matrix. The obvious first question about such an abstraction is whether it is genuinely more general than its model, that is, whether there are matroids that do not arise from any matrix. Section 16 of the paper answers it with a seven-element example, now called the Fano matroid F7F_7F7​, and proves that no real matrix corresponds to it.

The question has had a long life. Representability of matroids over a given field is a central theme of matroid theory: Tutte (1958) characterized the matroids representable over the field with two elements by a single excluded minor, the four-point line U2,4U_{2,4}U2,4​, and the regular matroids by three excluded minors, U2,4U_{2,4}U2,4​, F7F_7F7​ and its dual; and Seymour's decomposition of regular matroids (1980) rests on the same objects. Whitney's §16 is the starting point of this line: the first proof that the abstract postulates admit matroids outside linear algebra over R\mathbb RR.

Timeline:

  • 1935. Whitney defines matroids, the circuit matrix of a matrix, and proves (§16) that the seven-element matroid M′M'M′ corresponds to no real matrix; in a footnote he credits Saunders MacLane with finding that M′M'M′ corresponds to no matrix and identifying it with a finite projective geometry. On p. 533 he exhibits a matrix of integers mod 2 for M′M'M′.
  • 1958. Tutte characterizes binary and regular matroids by excluded minors; F7F_7F7​ appears as an excluded minor for regularity (Tutte 1958).

Setting

Let M=(aij)\mathbf M=(a_{ij})M=(aij​) be an m×nm\times nm×n matrix with columns C1,…,CnC_1,\dots,C_nC1​,…,Cn​. For a set NNN of columns, let r(N)r(N)r(N) be the rank of the submatrix formed by those columns. Regarding the columns as abstract elements gives a matroid MMM on {C1,…,Cn}\{C_1,\dots,C_n\}{C1​,…,Cn​} with rank function rrr: the matroid of M\mathbf MM. A matroid corresponds to M\mathbf MM if it is the matroid of M\mathbf MM, with elements matched to columns.

A circuit of a matroid is a minimal dependent set. For a circuit P={i1,…,ip}P=\{i_1,\dots,i_p\}P={i1​,…,ip​} of the matroid of M\mathbf MM, there are numbers b1,…,bnb_1,\dots,b_nb1​,…,bn​ with ∑jaijbj=0\sum_j a_{ij}b_j=0∑j​aij​bj​=0 for every row iii, and bj≠0b_j\neq 0bj​=0 exactly for j∈Pj\in Pj∈P; the set of such vectors is written Zi1⋯ipZ_{i_1\cdots i_p}Zi1​⋯ip​​ when only the support condition is meant. Stacking one such row per circuit gives the circuit matrix M′\mathbf M'M′ of M\mathbf MM, determined up to nonzero factors on its rows.

A fundamental set of circuits of a matroid MMM with nullity n(M)=ρ(M)−r(M)n(M)=\rho(M)-r(M)n(M)=ρ(M)−r(M) (ρ\rhoρ the number of elements) is a family of circuits P1,…,PqP_1,\dots,P_qP1​,…,Pq​ with q=n(M)q=n(M)q=n(M) such that the elements can be ordered e1,…,ene_1,\dots,e_ne1​,…,en​ with en−q+i∈Pie_{n-q+i}\in P_ien−q+i​∈Pi​ and en−q+j∉Pie_{n-q+j}\notin P_ien−q+j​∈/Pi​ for j>ij>ij>i; it is strict if en−q+j∉Pie_{n-q+j}\notin P_ien−q+j​∈/Pi​ for every j≠ij\neq ij=i.

The matroid M′M'M′ of §16 has elements 1,…,71,\dots,71,…,7; its bases (maximal independent sets) are all three-element sets except

124,135,167,236,257,347,456.(16.1)124,\quad 135,\quad 167,\quad 236,\quad 257,\quad 347,\quad 456. \qquad (16.1)124,135,167,236,257,347,456.(16.1)

Formalization targets

Goal: §16, pp. 529–530

∃ M′and∀m ∀ M∈Rm×7: M′ is not the matroid of M.\exists\,M' \quad\text{and}\quad \forall m\ \forall\,\mathbf M\in\mathbb R^{m\times 7}:\ M' \text{ is not the matroid of } \mathbf M .∃M′and∀m ∀M∈Rm×7: M′ is not the matroid of M.

The number of rows is arbitrary; the existence clause makes the non-existence statement non-vacuous.

Milestones

  1. §12. Every real matrix has a matroid: the ranks of column submatrices satisfy the rank postulates.
  2. §14, (14.1). Every real matrix has a circuit matrix.
  3. Theorem 29. The rows of a fundamental set of circuits form a base for the rows of the circuit matrix, so r(M′)=q=n(M)r(\mathbf M')=q=n(\mathbf M)r(M′)=q=n(M).
  4. Lemma 10. The support of a vector in the row space HHH of a circuit matrix is a union of circuits.
  5. Lemma 11. Two vectors of HHH with the same circuit as support are proportional.
  6. Theorem 32. For a circuit matrix normalised along a strict fundamental set, a minor DDD vanishes iff an associated q×qq\times qq×q minor D′D'D′ vanishes, iff some circuit avoids a prescribed set of columns.
  7. §16, rank of M′M'M′. The rank of a kkk-set is kkk for k≤2k\le 2k≤2, 333 for k≥4k\ge 4k≥4, and for k=3k=3k=3 it is 222 on (16.1) and 333 otherwise.
  8. p. 533. M′M'M′ is the matroid of an explicit 3×73\times 73×7 matrix of integers mod 2.

Significance

The result. The theorem separates the abstract notion of matroid from linear dependence over R\mathbb RR: some matroids are not real-representable. It also exhibits that representability depends on the field, because the same matroid is the matroid of a matrix over the integers mod 2 (milestone 8). Everything later written about representability over particular fields, excluded-minor characterizations, and the gap between abstract and linear matroids starts from this distinction. Theorem 32 is of independent interest: it translates statements about circuits of a represented matroid into the vanishing of minors of a normalised circuit matrix.

Formalizing it. The result is classical and its proof is short on paper, but it is not formalized in Mathlib, which has matroids (Matroid, circuits, ranks) but no column matroid of a matrix with a rank-of-submatrix characterization, no circuit matrix, and no Fano matroid. The mission produces those objects and the bridge lemmas (Theorem 29, Lemmas 10–11, Theorem 32) that connect matroid circuits with linear algebra of the circuit matrix. No machine-checked proof of the non-representability of the Fano matroid over R\mathbb RR in Lean is known to the curators.

Difficulty

The obvious attempt is a direct search: suppose a real m×7m\times 7m×7 matrix has M′M'M′ as its matroid and derive a contradiction from the seven dependent triples. This does not work as stated. Each rank condition is a determinantal (nonlinear) condition on the entries, the number of rows mmm is unbounded, and a representation is determined only up to row operations and column scalings, so there is no finite case check and no single linear computation that settles the question. The contradiction has to come from an argument that is invariant under these symmetries, and the milestones (circuit vectors determined up to scaling, fundamental sets spanning, circuits detected by minors) are what such an argument needs to be stated in. The field also matters: the argument must use that 2≠02\neq 02=0 in R\mathbb RR, since over a field of characteristic 2 the statement is false (milestone 8).

Formalization scope

  • Elements and matrices. Matroids are Mathlib Matroids whose ground set is the whole (finite) type. The Fano matroid lives on Fin 7, Whitney's element kkk being k - 1; the seven triples are written out literally. Matrices are Matrix (Fin m) ι K; "the matroid of M\mathbf MM" means: ground set everything, and the rank M.eRk N of every finite set NNN of columns equals Matrix.rank of the column submatrix.
  • Field. The goal and Lemmas 10–11, Theorems 29 and 32 are stated over R\mathbb RR, as in the paper; the predicate "matroid of a matrix" is stated over any field so that the mod-2 milestone uses the same notion.
  • Circuit matrix. Rows are determined up to nonzero factors, so "circuit matrix" is a predicate on a matrix together with a bijection between its rows and the circuits; every theorem holds for every such choice.
  • Nullity and indices. q=n(M)q=n(M)q=n(M) is written q+r(M)=ρ(M)q+r(M)=\rho(M)q+r(M)=ρ(M) in extended naturals, with no truncated subtraction. In Theorem 32, n=p+qn=p+qn=p+q, the complement of i1,…,isi_1,\dots,i_si1​,…,is​ is given as an order embedding of Fin t with s+t=qs+t=qs+t=q, and determinants are of square submatrices in the paper's row and column order.
  • Ruling out trivial readings. The goal includes the existence of M′M'M′; without it "every matroid with these bases has no real matrix" could hold vacuously. The goal quantifies over every number of rows; fixing m=3m=3m=3 would be a weaker statement.

Reusable beyond this mission: the matroid of a matrix over a field, the circuit matrix, fundamental sets of circuits, and the Fano matroid. Contributions welcome: proofs of the milestones, and a proof of the goal by any route, including one that does not go through Theorem 32.

Selected references

  • H. Whitney, On the Abstract Properties of Linear Dependence, American Journal of Mathematics 57 (1935), 509–533. https://doi.org/10.2307/2371182
  • W. T. Tutte, A homotopy theorem for matroids, I, II, Transactions of the American Mathematical Society 88 (1958), 144–174. https://doi.org/10.2307/1993244
  • J. Oxley, Matroid Theory, 2nd ed., Oxford University Press, 2011. https://doi.org/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198566946.001.0001
  • O. Veblen and J. W. Young, Projective Geometry, Vol. I, Ginn, 1910 (cited by Whitney for the finite projective geometry).
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Robust Solutions of Uncertain Linear Programs I: Under Constraint-wise Uncertainty and the Boundedness Assumption the Robust Counterpart Is No Worse Than the Worst InstanceResearch Paper

Motivation

A linear program is solved with data that, in practice, is rarely known exactly: coefficients come from measurements, estimates or forecasts. Robust optimization asks for a solution that remains feasible for every realization of the data in a prescribed uncertainty set, and among those the one with the best guaranteed objective value. Ben-Tal and Nemirovski introduced this framework for linear programming in Robust solutions of uncertain linear programs (Oper. Res. Lett. 25, 1999), following their treatment of robust convex optimization (Math. Oper. Res. 23, 1998) and Soyster's earlier work on inexact linear programming (Oper. Res. 21, 1973). The robust counterpart has since become the starting point of a large literature on uncertainty sets, budgets of uncertainty and adjustable policies.

A natural first objection is that the robust counterpart might be needlessly conservative: by demanding feasibility for all realizations simultaneously, it could be infeasible, or have a worse value, even when every individual realization is perfectly well behaved. This mission formalizes the paper's answer (§2.2): under two structural hypotheses, the robust counterpart is no worse than the worst realization.

Setting

Fix c,f∈Rnc, f \in \mathbb R^nc,f∈Rn and write a linear program in the homogeneous form (6)

(P)min⁡{cTx∣Ax≥0, fTx=1},(P)\qquad \min\{c^{T}x \mid Ax \ge 0,\ f^{T}x = 1\},(P)min{cTx∣Ax≥0, fTx=1},

where AAA is a real m×nm\times nm×n matrix and Ax≥0Ax\ge0Ax≥0 is componentwise. Every linear program can be put in this form. The matrix AAA is uncertain: it is only known to lie in an uncertainty set U\mathcal UU of m×nm\times nm×n matrices. Each A∈UA\in\mathcal UA∈U gives an instance (P)(P)(P) with feasible set {x∣Ax≥0, fTx=1}\{x\mid Ax\ge0,\ f^{T}x = 1\}{x∣Ax≥0, fTx=1} and optimal value c∗(P)c^*(P)c∗(P); the family of instances is P\mathcal PP. The robust counterpart (7) is

(PU)min⁡{cTx∣x∈GU},GU={x∣Ax≥0  ∀A∈U; fTx=1},(P_{\mathcal U})\qquad \min\{c^{T}x \mid x \in G_{\mathcal U}\},\qquad G_{\mathcal U} = \{x\mid Ax\ge0\ \ \forall A\in\mathcal U;\ f^{T}x = 1\},(PU​)min{cTx∣x∈GU​},GU​={x∣Ax≥0  ∀A∈U; fTx=1},

and its optimal value is c∗c^*c∗. Since GUG_{\mathcal U}GU​ does not change when U\mathcal UU is replaced by its closed convex hull, the paper assumes throughout that U\mathcal UU is convex and closed.

Let Ui⊆Rn\mathcal U_i\subseteq\mathbb R^nUi​⊆Rn be the set of all realizations of the iii-th row, the projection of U\mathcal UU onto the data of the iii-th constraint. The uncertainty is constraint-wise if U=U1×⋯×Um\mathcal U = \mathcal U_1\times\dots\times\mathcal U_mU=U1​×⋯×Um​: the rows vary independently. The Boundedness Assumption asks for a convex compact set Q⊆RnQ\subseteq\mathbb R^nQ⊆Rn that contains the feasible set of every instance.

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 2.1 (p. 5)

If the uncertainty is constraint-wise and the Boundedness Assumption holds, then

  1. (PU)(P_{\mathcal U})(PU​) is infeasible if and only if some instance is infeasible:
GU=∅  ⟺  ∃A∈U: {x∣Ax≥0, fTx=1}=∅;G_{\mathcal U} = \emptyset \iff \exists A\in\mathcal U:\ \{x\mid Ax\ge0,\ f^{T}x=1\}=\emptyset;GU​=∅⟺∃A∈U: {x∣Ax≥0, fTx=1}=∅;
  1. if (PU)(P_{\mathcal U})(PU​) is feasible with optimal value c∗c^*c∗, then
c∗=sup⁡{c∗(P)∣(P)∈P}.(9)c^* = \sup\{c^*(P)\mid (P)\in\mathcal P\}. \tag{9}c∗=sup{c∗(P)∣(P)∈P}.(9)

Milestones

The milestones follow the paper's proof: the row-wise description (8) of robust feasibility; the inclusion of GUG_{\mathcal U}GU​ in every instance's feasible set; the reduction of the semi-infinite system (8) on QQQ to a finite subsystem; the statement that the finite system (10) A1x≥0,…,ANx≥0, fTx=1A_1x\ge0,\dots,A_Nx\ge0,\ f^{T}x=1A1​x≥0,…,AN​x≥0, fTx=1 then has no solution at all; the Farkas certificate (11); the construction of one infeasible instance from it; and part (i) alone, which part (ii) uses for an augmented program.

Companions

The §2.2 example (every instance has optimal value 1, the robust counterpart is infeasible), and the two invariance remarks: GUG_{\mathcal U}GU​ is unchanged under passing to the closed convex hull of U\mathcal UU (§2.1) or to the product U1×⋯×Um\mathcal U_1\times\dots\times\mathcal U_mU1​×⋯×Um​ of its projections (§2.2).

Significance

Proposition 2.1 says that, for constraint-wise uncertainty, robustness costs nothing beyond what the worst realization already costs: the robust counterpart is feasible exactly when every instance is, and its optimal value equals the worst instance value. The §2.2 example shows the hypothesis cannot be dropped: there, correlated uncertainty in two rows makes every instance solvable with value 1 while the robust counterpart is infeasible. Together with the invariance of GUG_{\mathcal U}GU​ under passing to the product of projections, this explains why row-wise (constraint-wise) uncertainty sets are the standard modelling choice in robust linear optimization.

The result is proved in the paper; no machine-checked version is known to exist. Formalizing it produces a reusable development of semi-infinite linear systems: the compactness reduction to finite subsystems, a homogeneous Farkas alternative, and the row-averaging argument that uses convexity and the product structure of U\mathcal UU.

Difficulty

The robust counterpart has a continuum of constraints, one for each A∈UA\in\mathcal UA∈U, so Farkas' Lemma cannot be applied to it directly. The step that requires care is passing from infeasibility of this semi-infinite system to infeasibility of a single instance. Compactness yields only finitely many instances whose joint system has no solution in QQQ; those instances are in general all feasible individually, and the infeasible instance has to be manufactured from their rows. Without constraint-wise uncertainty the manufactured matrix need not lie in U\mathcal UU, which is exactly what the §2.2 example exploits. Part (ii) needs the optimal values of the instances to be attained on compact feasible sets, which is where the Boundedness Assumption enters again.

Formalization scope

Vectors are Fin n → ℝ, matrices Matrix (Fin m) (Fin n) ℝ, and Ax≥0Ax\ge0Ax≥0 is 0 ≤ A *ᵥ x in the componentwise order. The iii-th row of AAA is A i and aTxa^{T}xaTx is a ⬝ᵥ x. The projections Ui\mathcal U_iUi​ are the images of U\mathcal UU under A↦AiA\mapsto A_iA↦Ai​, not free sets, and constraint-wise uncertainty is the inclusion U1×⋯×Um⊆U\mathcal U_1\times\dots\times\mathcal U_m\subseteq\mathcal UU1​×⋯×Um​⊆U (the reverse inclusion always holds). The Boundedness Assumption keeps both convexity and compactness of QQQ, as on the page.

Optimal values are infima: c∗c^*c∗ is the greatest lower bound (IsGLB) of cTxc^{T}xcTx over GUG_{\mathcal U}GU​, and (9) states that c∗c^*c∗ is the least upper bound (IsLUB) of the set of real optimal values of the instances. No real sInf/sSup is used, so no junk value can make the statement true.

The goal carries the paper's standing assumption that U\mathcal UU is convex and closed, and one disclosed addition: U\mathcal UU is nonempty. The paper takes this for granted; without it part (i) fails for f=0f = 0f=0 and the supremum in (9) ranges over the empty set. The goal does not assume that the robust counterpart or any instance attains its optimum, and it does not mention finite subsystems, multipliers or the averaged matrix; those appear only in the milestones. A formalization in which the uncertainty sets Ui\mathcal U_iUi​ are arbitrary sets with U=∏iUi\mathcal U = \prod_i\mathcal U_iU=∏i​Ui​, or in which optimal values are taken as sInf without boundedness, would not be faithful and is ruled out.

A complete development needs: compactness arguments for families of closed half-spaces, a Farkas alternative for homogeneous systems with one normalizing equation, and elementary convexity of linear images. These pieces are general and reusable beyond robust optimization. Proofs of the milestones, alternative arguments (for instance via LP duality for part (ii)) and proofs of the companion statements are welcome.

Selected references

  • A. Ben-Tal, A. Nemirovski, Robust solutions of uncertain linear programs, Operations Research Letters 25(1):1–13, 1999. https://doi.org/10.1016/s0167-6377(99)00016-4 (cited here by the pages of the authors' manuscript).
  • A. Ben-Tal, A. Nemirovski, Robust convex optimization, Mathematics of Operations Research 23(4):769–805, 1998. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.23.4.769
  • A. L. Soyster, Convex programming with set-inclusive constraints and applications to inexact linear programming, Operations Research 21(5):1154–1157, 1973. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.21.5.1154
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Machine LearningOperations ResearchStatistics·Captain: mikedeng1

The Big Data Newsvendor: Practical Insights from Machine Learning: The L2-Regularized Feature-Based Newsvendor Rule Generalizes with a Bound Free of the Number of FeaturesResearch Paper

Motivation

The newsvendor problem is the basic model of inventory under uncertain demand. A decision maker orders qqq units before demand DDD is observed, and pays a unit backordering cost bbb for each unit of unmet demand and a unit holding cost hhh for each unit left over. When the demand distribution is known, the optimal order is a quantile of it. In practice the distribution is unknown and the decision maker holds historical data, often including features: observable covariates such as the day of the week, the weather or a recent sales trend, recorded alongside each past demand.

Rudin and Vahn (MIT Sloan Working Paper 5036-13, version of February 6, 2014, from MIT DSpace; published as Ban and Rudin, Operations Research 67(1), 2019, doi:10.1287/opre.2018.1757) propose to learn the order quantity directly as a linear function of the features, by minimizing the empirical newsvendor cost over the training data, with or without a regularization penalty. Their question is the one any data-driven decision rule must answer: how much worse can the learned rule do on new data than it did on the data it was fitted to? When the number of features ppp is comparable to the sample size nnn ("big data"), a bound that grows with ppp says nothing, and the paper's Theorem 2 gives one for the regularized rule that does not depend on ppp.

This mission formalizes that bound, Theorem 2 of the working paper, together with the results its proof is assembled from. All page and result numbers refer to the 2014 working paper, not to the published article.

Setting

Cost. For an order qqq and a demand ddd, the newsvendor cost is

C(q;d)=b (d−q)++h (q−d)+,b,h>0.C(q;d)=b\,(d-q)^+ + h\,(q-d)^+ ,\qquad b,h>0 .C(q;d)=b(d−q)++h(q−d)+,b,h>0.

Write b∨h=max⁡(b,h)b\vee h=\max(b,h)b∨h=max(b,h).

Data. A data point is a pair z=(x,d)z=(x,d)z=(x,d) of a feature vector x∈Rpx\in\mathbb R^px∈Rp and a demand d∈Rd\in\mathbb Rd∈R. Features lie in a domain X\mathcal XX inside the ball ∥x∥22≤Xmax⁡2\|x\|_2^2\le X_{\max}^2∥x∥22​≤Xmax2​, and demands lie in D=[0,Dˉ]\mathcal D=[0,\bar D]D=[0,Dˉ]. A sample Sn={(xi,di)}i=1nS_n=\{(x_i,d_i)\}_{i=1}^nSn​={(xi​,di​)}i=1n​ consists of nnn independent draws from an unknown probability distribution μ\muμ concentrated on X×D\mathcal X\times\mathcal DX×D.

Rules and risks. A vector q∈Rpq\in\mathbb R^pq∈Rp defines the linear decision rule q(x)=q⊤xq(x)=q^\top xq(x)=q⊤x. Its true risk and empirical risk are

Rtrue(q)=E(x,d)∼μ[C(q⊤x;d)],R^(q;Sn)=1n∑i=1nC(q⊤xi;di).R_{true}(q)=\mathbb E_{(x,d)\sim\mu}\bigl[C(q^\top x;d)\bigr],\qquad \hat R(q;S_n)=\frac1n\sum_{i=1}^n C(q^\top x_i;d_i).Rtrue​(q)=E(x,d)∼μ​[C(q⊤x;d)],R^(q;Sn​)=n1​i=1∑n​C(q⊤xi​;di​).

The regularized algorithm (NV-reg). For a parameter λ>0\lambda>0λ>0, the rule q^=q^(Sn)\hat q=\hat q(S_n)q^​=q^​(Sn​) minimizes

R^(q;Sn)+λ∥q∥22over q∈Rp.\hat R(q;S_n)+\lambda\|q\|_2^2\qquad\text{over } q\in\mathbb R^p .R^(q;Sn​)+λ∥q∥22​over q∈Rp.

The objective is strictly convex, so the minimizer is unique. Following Appendix B of the paper, the rules the algorithm outputs on samples from X×D\mathcal X\times\mathcal DX×D are assumed to map X\mathcal XX into D\mathcal DD (the paper's Q⊂DX\mathcal Q\subset\mathcal D^{\mathcal X}Q⊂DX): the learned order quantity is never negative and never exceeds the demand cap.

Uniform stability. An algorithm is uniformly stable with parameter αn\alpha_nαn​ if removing one observation from any sample changes the loss of its output at any test point by at most αn\alpha_nαn​ (Bousquet and Elisseeff's Definition 6, the paper's Definition 1).

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 2 (p. 9)

For every δ∈(0,1)\delta\in(0,1)δ∈(0,1) and n≥1n\ge1n≥1, with probability at least 1−δ1-\delta1−δ over SnS_nSn​,

∣Rtrue(q^)−R^(q^;Sn)∣≤(b∨h)2Xmax⁡2nλ+(2(b∨h)2Xmax⁡2λ+(b∨h)Dˉ)ln⁡(2/δ)2n.|R_{true}(\hat q)-\hat R(\hat q;S_n)|\le\frac{(b\vee h)^2X_{\max}^2}{n\lambda}+\Bigl(\frac{2(b\vee h)^2X_{\max}^2}{\lambda}+(b\vee h)\bar D\Bigr)\sqrt{\frac{\ln(2/\delta)}{2n}} .∣Rtrue​(q^​)−R^(q^​;Sn​)∣≤nλ(b∨h)2Xmax2​​+(λ2(b∨h)2Xmax2​​+(b∨h)Dˉ)2nln(2/δ)​​.

The dimension ppp appears nowhere in the bound.

Milestones, in the order of the proof (p. 32)

  1. Lemma 5 (p. 28). For q,d∈[0,Dˉ]q,d\in[0,\bar D]q,d∈[0,Dˉ], ∣C(q;d)∣≤(b∨h)Dˉ|C(q;d)|\le(b\vee h)\bar D∣C(q;d)∣≤(b∨h)Dˉ, and the bound is attained.
  2. Display (31) (p. 31). CCC is convex in its first argument and (b∨h)(b\vee h)(b∨h)-Lipschitz in it, i.e. (b∨h)(b\vee h)(b∨h)-admissible in the sense of Definition 2.
  3. Theorem 5 (p. 31), Bousquet and Elisseeff's Theorem 22: regularization in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space with a σ\sigmaσ-admissible loss and kernel bound κ2\kappa^2κ2 has uniform stability σ2κ2/(2λn)\sigma^2\kappa^2/(2\lambda n)σ2κ2/(2λn). This is an existing platform statement, referenced rather than restated.
  4. Theorem 4 (p. 30). (NV-reg) is uniformly stable with parameter αnr=(b∨h)2Xmax⁡2/(2nλ)\alpha_n^r=(b\vee h)^2X_{\max}^2/(2n\lambda)αnr​=(b∨h)2Xmax2​/(2nλ).
  5. Theorem 6 (p. 31). Any algorithm with uniform stability αn\alpha_nαn​ and loss in [0,M][0,M][0,M] satisfies, with probability at least 1−δ1-\delta1−δ,
∣Rtrue(A,Sn)−R^(A,Sn)∣≤2αn+(4nαn+M)ln⁡(2/δ)2n.|R_{true}(A,S_n)-\hat R(A,S_n)|\le2\alpha_n+(4n\alpha_n+M)\sqrt{\frac{\ln(2/\delta)}{2n}} .∣Rtrue​(A,Sn​)−R^(A,Sn​)∣≤2αn​+(4nαn​+M)2nln(2/δ)​​.

Significance

The result. Theorem 2 bounds the generalization gap of the regularized feature-based newsvendor rule at rate O(1/n)O(1/\sqrt n)O(1/n​) with constants that depend on the costs, the demand cap, the feature radius and λ\lambdaλ, but not on the number of features. It gives a theoretical basis for regularizing when p/np/np/n is not small, and it indicates how to scale λ\lambdaλ with the feature radius. The companion bound for the unregularized rule (Theorem 1) grows linearly in ppp.

Formalizing it. The theorem is proved in the paper, but its proof is short and relies on cited results: Theorem 5 and Theorem 6 are stated with references to Bousquet and Elisseeff and no proof of their own, and the paper's Theorem 6 is a two-sided variant of Bousquet and Elisseeff's Theorem 12 that is only sketched. None of these results has a machine-checked proof. A formalization produces a checked two-sided stability-to-generalization theorem for general algorithms (reusable for any stable learner), a checked stability bound for a regularized piecewise-linear loss, and the newsvendor bound itself, with the constants the proof actually supports.

Difficulty

The bound is not a uniform-convergence argument: the class of linear rules on Rp\mathbb R^pRp has complexity growing with ppp, so any bound that holds simultaneously for all rules in the class depends on ppp. The bound must exploit the specific rule produced by the algorithm. The two analytic steps that carry this are the stability of the regularized minimizer, which needs a strong-convexity comparison between the full and the leave-one-out objective, and a concentration inequality of bounded-differences type for a function of the whole sample whose differences are controlled only through stability.

The leave-one-out comparison is a known pitfall. If the leave-one-out problem is run literally on n−1n-1n−1 points it carries the weight 1/(n−1)1/(n-1)1/(n−1), and the comparison argument then gives twice the constant of Theorem 4. The stated constant holds for the leave-one-out objective that keeps the weight 1/n1/n1/n, which is the form of Theorem 5.

Formalization scope

Representation. Features are EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin p), rules are vectors acting by the inner product, and data points live in EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin p) × ℝ. The cost is the published newsboy loss with overage cost hhh and underage cost bbb; the empirical and true risks are the published empirical and generalization errors, and the (NV-reg) objective and its 1/n1/n1/n-weighted leave-one-out version are the published regularized objectives of Bousquet and Elisseeff. The regularizer is λ∥q∥22\lambda\|q\|_2^2λ∥q∥22​ (the display prints both λ∥q∥22\lambda\|q\|_2^2λ∥q∥22​ and λ∥q∥2\lambda\|q\|_2λ∥q∥2​; the text calls the problem a quadratic program). "With probability at least 1−δ1-\delta1−δ" is stated as: the event on which the gap exceeds the bound has measure at most δ\deltaδ under the product measure μn\mu^nμn.

Standing assumptions and pinned hypotheses.

  1. b,h,λ>0b,h,\lambda>0b,h,λ>0, Xmax⁡,Dˉ≥0X_{\max},\bar D\ge0Xmax​,Dˉ≥0, n≥1n\ge1n≥1, δ∈(0,1)\delta\in(0,1)δ∈(0,1).
  2. μ\muμ is a probability measure giving full mass to X×[0,Dˉ]\mathcal X\times[0,\bar D]X×[0,Dˉ], with ∥x∥22≤Xmax⁡2\|x\|_2^2\le X_{\max}^2∥x∥22​≤Xmax2​ on X\mathcal XX (§3, p. 9; the page writes the ball as ∥x∥22≤Xmax⁡\|x\|_2^2\le X_{\max}∥x∥22​≤Xmax​, while Theorem 2's "Xmax⁡2X_{\max}^2Xmax2​ as the largest possible value of ∥x∥22\|x\|_2^2∥x∥22​" and Theorem 5's note fix the reading).
  3. The algorithm is any map Sn↦q^(Sn)S_n\mapsto\hat q(S_n)Sn​↦q^​(Sn​) whose value minimizes the (NV-reg) objective, measurable in SnS_nSn​ (Appendix B: "all functions are measurable").
  4. The range assumption of Appendix B: for samples from X×D\mathcal X\times\mathcal DX×D, q^⊤x∈[0,Dˉ]\hat q^\top x\in[0,\bar D]q^​⊤x∈[0,Dˉ] for x∈Xx\in\mathcal Xx∈X.
  5. The last constant is (b∨h)Dˉ(b\vee h)\bar D(b∨h)Dˉ, the loss bound MMM from Lemma 5 that the proof feeds into Theorem 6; display (6) prints Dˉ\bar DDˉ there.
  6. The convention that all sets are countable, and the intercept convention x1=1x^1=1x1=1, are not imposed.

Trivializing formalization ruled out. The range assumption is quantified only over feature vectors in X\mathcal XX and over samples drawn from X×D\mathcal X\times\mathcal DX×D; stated over the whole ball ∥x∥2≤Xmax⁡\|x\|_2\le X_{\max}∥x∥2​≤Xmax​, it would force q^=0\hat q=0q^​=0 (both q^⊤x\hat q^\top xq^​⊤x and q^⊤(−x)\hat q^\top(-x)q^​⊤(−x) would lie in [0,Dˉ][0,\bar D][0,Dˉ]) and the goal would be nearly empty.

What is needed and reusable. McDiarmid's two-sided bounded-differences inequality under product measures; integrability of bounded measurable losses; existence and properties of minimizers of strongly convex objectives on Rp\mathbb R^pRp; the comparison argument behind Theorem 5. Theorem 6 is stated for an arbitrary data space and hypothesis space and is reusable for any uniformly stable algorithm. Contributions to the Theorem 5 reference and to McDiarmid's inequality benefit other missions as well.

Selected references

  • C. Rudin and G.-Y. Vahn, The Big Data Newsvendor: Practical Insights from Machine Learning, MIT Sloan School Working Paper 5036-13, version of February 6, 2014 (MIT DSpace). The version formalized here.
  • G.-Y. Ban and C. Rudin, The Big Data Newsvendor: Practical Insights from Machine Learning, Operations Research 67(1):90–108, 2019. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.2018.1757
  • O. Bousquet and A. Elisseeff, Stability and Generalization, Journal of Machine Learning Research 2:499–526, 2002. https://jmlr.org/papers/v2/bousquet02a.html
  • C. McDiarmid, On the method of bounded differences, Surveys in Combinatorics, London Math. Soc. Lecture Note Series 141, 148–188, 1989. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781107359949.008
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Linear OptimizationOperations ResearchOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

On the Power and Limitations of Affine Policies in Two-Stage Adaptive Optimization I: An Affine Policy Is Optimal When the Uncertainty Set Is a SimplexResearch Paper

Motivation

Two-stage adaptive optimization models decisions taken in two rounds: a first-stage decision xxx is fixed before an uncertain parameter is revealed, and a second-stage decision y(b)y(b)y(b) is chosen after the parameter bbb is observed, so that the second stage may depend on bbb arbitrarily. The objective is the worst case over an uncertainty set U\mathcal UU of possible parameters. Such models arise in robust network design, capacity planning and two-stage covering problems, and they generalize the two-stage robust combinatorial problems (set cover, facility location) studied by Dhamdhere, Goyal, Ravi and Singh.

Optimizing over all functions y(⋅)y(\cdot)y(⋅) is intractable in general: Bertsimas and Goyal note that the optimal second stage is piecewise linear in bbb with possibly exponentially many pieces (Bemporad, Borrelli and Morari, 2003). A standard remedy, introduced for robust linear programs by Ben-Tal, Goryashko, Guslitzer and Nemirovski (2004), restricts the second stage to affine policies (linear decision rules) y(b)=Pb+qy(b)=Pb+qy(b)=Pb+q; the best affine policy is computable by a single convex program and performs well empirically. The question is when this restriction loses nothing.

Timeline of the relevant results:

  • 2004. Ben-Tal, Goryashko, Guslitzer and Nemirovski introduce affinely adjustable robust counterparts and show that the best affine policy is tractable for many uncertainty sets (doi:10.1007/s10107-003-0454-y).
  • 2010. Bertsimas, Iancu and Parrilo prove that affine policies are optimal for a class of multistage robust problems with one-dimensional uncertainty per stage and box uncertainty sets (doi:10.1287/moor.1100.0444).
  • 2012. Bertsimas and Goyal, the source of this mission, prove that an affine policy is optimal for model (1) whenever U\mathcal UU is a simplex (Theorem 1), and show that this exactness breaks down for slightly larger sets (doi:10.1007/s10107-011-0444-4).

Setting

Let A∈Rm×n1A\in\mathbb R^{m\times n_1}A∈Rm×n1​, B∈Rm×n2B\in\mathbb R^{m\times n_2}B∈Rm×n2​, c∈R+n1c\in\mathbb R^{n_1}_+c∈R+n1​​ and d∈R+n2d\in\mathbb R^{n_2}_+d∈R+n2​​. The problem ΠAdapt(U)\Pi_{Adapt}(\mathcal U)ΠAdapt​(U) of model (1) is

zAdapt(U)=min⁡ cTx+max⁡b∈UdTy(b)s.t.Ax+By(b)≥b,  x≥0,  y(b)≥0∀b∈U,z_{Adapt}(\mathcal U)=\min\ c^Tx+\max_{b\in\mathcal U}d^Ty(b)\quad\text{s.t.}\quad Ax+By(b)\ge b,\ \ x\ge 0,\ \ y(b)\ge 0\quad\forall b\in\mathcal U,zAdapt​(U)=min cTx+b∈Umax​dTy(b)s.t.Ax+By(b)≥b,  x≥0,  y(b)≥0∀b∈U,

where inequalities between vectors are componentwise. A pair (x,y)(x,y)(x,y) satisfying the constraints is feasible; its worst-case cost is cTx+max⁡b∈UdTy(b)c^Tx+\max_{b\in\mathcal U}d^Ty(b)cTx+maxb∈U​dTy(b). A feasible pair is optimal when its worst-case cost equals zAdapt(U)z_{Adapt}(\mathcal U)zAdapt​(U), and an affine policy is a second stage of the form y(b)=Pb+qy(b)=Pb+qy(b)=Pb+q with P∈Rn2×mP\in\mathbb R^{n_2\times m}P∈Rn2​×m, q∈Rn2q\in\mathbb R^{n_2}q∈Rn2​, still required to be nonnegative on U\mathcal UU. The value zAff(U)z_{Aff}(\mathcal U)zAff​(U) is the same minimum restricted to affine policies.

A simplex in Rm\mathbb R^mRm is the convex hull

U=conv⁡(b1,…,bm+1)\mathcal U=\operatorname{conv}(b^1,\dots,b^{m+1})U=conv(b1,…,bm+1)

of m+1m+1m+1 affinely independent points, that is, points for which b1−bm+1,…,bm−bm+1b^1-b^{m+1},\dots,b^m-b^{m+1}b1−bm+1,…,bm−bm+1 are linearly independent. The proof works with the m×mm\times mm×m matrix Q=[(b1−bm+1)⋯(bm−bm+1)]Q=[(b^1-b^{m+1})\cdots(b^m-b^{m+1})]Q=[(b1−bm+1)⋯(bm−bm+1)], the matrix Y=[(y∗(b1)−y∗(bm+1))⋯(y∗(bm)−y∗(bm+1))]Y=[(y^*(b^1)-y^*(b^{m+1}))\cdots(y^*(b^m)-y^*(b^{m+1}))]Y=[(y∗(b1)−y∗(bm+1))⋯(y∗(bm)−y∗(bm+1))] of display (2), and the affine rule y~(b)=YQ−1(b−bm+1)+y∗(bm+1)\tilde y(b)=YQ^{-1}(b-b^{m+1})+y^*(b^{m+1})y~​(b)=YQ−1(b−bm+1)+y∗(bm+1). In Lean these are Qmat v, Ymat v g and interpolant v g, with vertices v : Fin (m+1) → Fin m → ℝ.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 1

If U=conv⁡(b1,…,bm+1)\mathcal U=\operatorname{conv}(b^1,\dots,b^{m+1})U=conv(b1,…,bm+1) with affinely independent bj∈R+mb^j\in\mathbb R^m_+bj∈R+m​ and ΠAdapt(U)\Pi_{Adapt}(\mathcal U)ΠAdapt​(U) is feasible, then there exist x^\hat xx^, P∈Rn2×mP\in\mathbb R^{n_2\times m}P∈Rn2​×m and q∈Rn2q\in\mathbb R^{n_2}q∈Rn2​ such that

(x^, y^),y^(b)=Pb+q  (b∈U),(\hat x,\ \hat y),\qquad \hat y(b)=Pb+q\ \ (b\in\mathcal U),(x^, y^​),y^​(b)=Pb+q  (b∈U),

is an optimal solution of ΠAdapt(U)\Pi_{Adapt}(\mathcal U)ΠAdapt​(U), optimal among all (not only affine) two-stage solutions. In particular zAff(U)=zAdapt(U)z_{Aff}(\mathcal U)=z_{Adapt}(\mathcal U)zAff​(U)=zAdapt​(U).

Milestones

The proof of Theorem 1 has no numbered lemma; the milestones are its displayed steps, in attack order:

  1. QQQ is invertible (PDF p. 6).
  2. For b=∑jαjbjb=\sum_j\alpha_jb^jb=∑j​αj​bj with ∑jαj=1\sum_j\alpha_j=1∑j​αj​=1: Q−1(b−bm+1)=(α1,…,αm)TQ^{-1}(b-b^{m+1})=(\alpha_1,\dots,\alpha_m)^TQ−1(b−bm+1)=(α1​,…,αm​)T (PDF p. 6).
  3. y~(∑jαjbj)=∑jαj y∗(bj)\tilde y\big(\sum_j\alpha_jb^j\big)=\sum_j\alpha_j\,y^*(b^j)y~​(∑j​αj​bj)=∑j​αj​y∗(bj) (PDF pp. 6–7).
  4. Displays (3)–(5): for any feasible (x∗,y∗)(x^*,y^*)(x∗,y∗), the pair (x∗,y~)(x^*,\tilde y)(x∗,y~​) is feasible and every bound on the worst-case cost of (x∗,y∗)(x^*,y^*)(x∗,y∗) also bounds that of (x∗,y~)(x^*,\tilde y)(x∗,y~​) (PDF p. 7).

Significance

The result. Theorem 1 identifies a class of uncertainty sets on which the tractable affine restriction is exact, for every constraint matrix AAA and BBB and every nonnegative cost. It is the positive anchor of the paper: Sections 3 and 4 show that with m+3m+3m+3 extreme points the best affine policy can already be worse by a factor 2−δ2-\delta2−δ, and that on sets with exponentially many extreme points the gap can be Ω(m1/2−δ)\Omega(m^{1/2-\delta})Ω(m1/2−δ); Section 6 uses a dominating simplex, on which affine policies are exact, to build an O(m)O(\sqrt m)O(m​)-approximation for general U\mathcal UU. The theorem also says that on a simplex the whole adaptive problem reduces to m+1m+1m+1 scenario copies of a linear program.

Formalizing it. The result is proved on paper; no machine-checked version is known on Prove2Me. This mission produces the model (1) in Lean, the barycentric-coordinate identity for a simplex in matrix form, and a statement of optimality that asserts attainment of the minimum in (1), which the paper's proof takes for granted.

Difficulty

Two steps are not routine to formalize. First, the paper starts from "an optimal solution x∗,y∗(b)x^*,y^*(b)x∗,y∗(b)", that is, it assumes the minimum in (1) is attained. Over arbitrary functions y(⋅)y(\cdot)y(⋅) this is not automatic; on a simplex it follows because the problem reduces to a finite linear program on the vertices, whose optimum is attained, but Mathlib has no theory of linear-programming attainment, so this reduction has to be built. Second, the affine-independence step needs the passage from affine independence of m+1m+1m+1 points to invertibility of the m×mm\times mm×m matrix QQQ, and the identity Q−1(b−bm+1)=αQ^{-1}(b-b^{m+1})=\alphaQ−1(b−bm+1)=α requires the barycentric coordinates and the inverse matrix to be matched index by index. The naive idea of comparing zAffz_{Aff}zAff​ and zAdaptz_{Adapt}zAdapt​ as real infima does not prove the goal: equality of the two infima says nothing about the existence of an optimal solution.

Formalization scope

Vectors in Rm\mathbb R^mRm are Fin m → ℝ, with the componentwise order; matrices are Matrix (Fin m) (Fin n) ℝ. The paper's indices start at 111, Lean's at 000: bjb^jbj is v (j-1) and bm+1b^{m+1}bm+1 is v (Fin.last m). The simplex is convexHull ℝ (Set.range v); it is compact, convex and, by affine independence, full-dimensional, so these standing assumptions of (1) are not stated separately. Nonnegativity of U\mathcal UU is the hypothesis that all m+1m+1m+1 vertices are nonnegative (the page writes j=1,…,mj=1,\dots,mj=1,…,m, a slip for m+1m+1m+1). Feasibility of (1) is a hypothesis, as the paper assumes. Optimality (IsOptimalAdapt) means: feasible, and every worst-case cost bound achieved by any feasible two-stage solution is achieved by this one. The values zAdaptz_{Adapt}zAdapt​ and zAffz_{Aff}zAff​ are infima of the sets of achievable bounds; they are provided for reference and the goal does not depend on them.

The goal must not be replaced by zAff(U)≤zAdapt(U)z_{Aff}(\mathcal U)\le z_{Adapt}(\mathcal U)zAff​(U)≤zAdapt​(U), by optimality among affine policies only, or by a version that assumes an optimal solution exists: each of these drops the content "there is an optimal solution and it is affine". The goal does not mention QQQ, YYY or the interpolant.

A complete development needs: linear-programming attainment for a finite system of linear inequalities with a cost bounded below (reusable well beyond this mission), the linear-algebra lemmas relating affine independence to an invertible edge matrix (reusable for barycentric coordinates in general), and the convex-hull representation of points of a simplex. Contributions of any of these as separate lemmas are welcome.

Selected references

  • D. Bertsimas, V. Goyal, On the power and limitations of affine policies in two-stage adaptive optimization, Math. Program. Ser. A, 2012. doi:10.1007/s10107-011-0444-4
  • A. Ben-Tal, A. Goryashko, E. Guslitzer, A. Nemirovski, Adjustable robust solutions of uncertain linear programs, Math. Program. 99(2), 351–376, 2004. doi:10.1007/s10107-003-0454-y
  • D. Bertsimas, D. A. Iancu, P. A. Parrilo, Optimality of affine policies in multistage robust optimization, Math. Oper. Res. 35(2), 363–394, 2010. doi:10.1287/moor.1100.0444
  • A. Bemporad, F. Borrelli, M. Morari, Min–max control of constrained uncertain discrete-time linear systems, IEEE Trans. Autom. Control 48(9), 1600–1606, 2003. doi:10.1109/TAC.2003.816984
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Linear OptimizationOperations ResearchOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

On the Power and Limitations of Affine Policies in Two-Stage Adaptive Optimization II: With m + 3 Extreme Points the Best Affine Policy Can Cost More Than (2 − δ) Times the OptimumResearch Paper

Motivation

Two-stage adaptive optimization models decisions made in two steps: a first-stage decision is fixed before an uncertain parameter is revealed, and a second-stage (recourse) decision may then depend on the realized value. In the robust version, the uncertain parameter ranges over an uncertainty set and the objective is the worst-case cost. Such models arise in capacity planning, network design and inventory problems with uncertain demand, where the demand is the right-hand side of the constraints.

Computing an optimal fully adaptable second-stage policy is intractable in general: the recourse is an arbitrary function of the uncertain parameter. The standard tractable surrogate, introduced by Ben-Tal, Goryashko, Guslitzer and Nemirovski (Math. Program. 99, 2004), restricts the recourse to an affine policy y(b)=Pb+qy(b) = Pb + qy(b)=Pb+q, whose optimization is a finite convex program. Practitioners report that affine policies often perform well, which raises the question of when they are optimal and how much they can lose.

Bertsimas and Goyal (Math. Program. Ser. A, 2012) answer this for problems with an uncertain right-hand side. Their Theorem 1 shows that affine policies are optimal when the uncertainty set is a simplex, that is, the convex hull of m+1m+1m+1 affinely independent points of R+m\mathbb R^m_+R+m​. Their Theorem 2, the subject of this mission, shows that this is almost tight: one additional extreme point can make the best affine policy almost twice as expensive as the optimum.

Setting

Let A∈Rm×n1A \in \mathbb R^{m\times n_1}A∈Rm×n1​, B∈Rm×n2B \in \mathbb R^{m\times n_2}B∈Rm×n2​, c∈R+n1c \in \mathbb R^{n_1}_+c∈R+n1​​, d∈R+n2d \in \mathbb R^{n_2}_+d∈R+n2​​ and let U⊆R+m\mathcal U \subseteq \mathbb R^m_+U⊆R+m​ be an uncertainty set. The problem ΠAdapt(U)\Pi_{\mathrm{Adapt}}(\mathcal U)ΠAdapt​(U) is

zAdapt(U)=min⁡ cTx+max⁡b∈UdTy(b)s.t.Ax+By(b)≥b,  x≥0,  y(b)≥0∀b∈U.z_{\mathrm{Adapt}}(\mathcal U)=\min\ c^{T}x+\max_{b\in\mathcal U} d^{T}y(b)\quad\text{s.t.}\quad Ax+By(b)\ge b,\ \ x\ge 0,\ \ y(b)\ge 0\quad\forall b\in\mathcal U .zAdapt​(U)=min cTx+b∈Umax​dTy(b)s.t.Ax+By(b)≥b,  x≥0,  y(b)≥0∀b∈U.

Here xxx is the first-stage decision and y:U→Rn2y : \mathcal U \to \mathbb R^{n_2}y:U→Rn2​ is the second-stage policy; all inequalities between vectors are componentwise. The value zAff(U)z_{\mathrm{Aff}}(\mathcal U)zAff​(U) is the same minimum restricted to affine policies y(b)=Pb+qy(b) = Pb + qy(b)=Pb+q with P∈Rn2×mP \in \mathbb R^{n_2\times m}P∈Rn2​×m and q∈Rn2q \in \mathbb R^{n_2}q∈Rn2​; an affine policy must still satisfy Pb+q≥0Pb + q \ge 0Pb+q≥0 for every b∈Ub \in \mathcal Ub∈U. Always zAdapt(U)≤zAff(U)z_{\mathrm{Adapt}}(\mathcal U) \le z_{\mathrm{Aff}}(\mathcal U)zAdapt​(U)≤zAff​(U).

The instance I\mathcal II of (6) is defined for δ>0\delta > 0δ>0 and an even integer m>200/δ2m > 200/\delta^2m>200/δ2. It has n1=n2=mn_1 = n_2 = mn1​=n2​=m, c=0c = 0c=0, d=(1,…,1)Td = (1,\dots,1)^Td=(1,…,1)T, A=0A = 0A=0, and

Bij={1,i=j,1/m,i≠j,U=conv⁡{b0,b1,…,bm+2},B_{ij}=\begin{cases}1,& i=j,\\ 1/\sqrt m,& i\ne j,\end{cases}\qquad \mathcal U=\operatorname{conv}\{b^0,b^1,\dots,b^{m+2}\},Bij​={1,1/m​,​i=j,i=j,​U=conv{b0,b1,…,bm+2},

where b0=0b^0 = 0b0=0, bj=ejb^j = e_jbj=ej​ is the jjj-th unit vector for j=1,…,mj = 1,\dots,mj=1,…,m, bm+1b^{m+1}bm+1 has entries 1/m1/\sqrt m1/m​ in its first m/2m/2m/2 coordinates and 000 in the others, and bm+2b^{m+2}bm+2 has 000 in its first m/2m/2m/2 coordinates and 1/m1/\sqrt m1/m​ in the others. Thus U\mathcal UU is generated by m+2m+2m+2 nonzero points. The last two are also extreme points when m≥6m\ge 6m≥6; for m=2m=2m=2 or 444 they lie in the convex hull of 0,e1,…,em0,e_1,\dots,e_m0,e1​,…,em​.

For a permutation τ\tauτ of {1,…,m}\{1,\dots,m\}{1,…,m}, write xτ=(xτ(1),…,xτ(m))x^\tau = (x_{\tau(1)},\dots,x_{\tau(m)})xτ=(xτ(1)​,…,xτ(m)​). A set UUU is permutation-invariant with respect to τ\tauτ if x∈U  ⟺  xτ∈Ux \in U \iff x^\tau \in Ux∈U⟺xτ∈U (Definition 2), and Γ\GammaΓ is the set (10) of permutations with i≤m/2  ⟺  τ(i)≤m/2i \le m/2 \iff \tau(i) \le m/2i≤m/2⟺τ(i)≤m/2.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 2

zAff(U)>(2−δ)⋅zAdapt(U)for the instance I of (6), every δ>0 and every even m>200/δ2.z_{\mathrm{Aff}}(\mathcal U)>(2-\delta)\cdot z_{\mathrm{Adapt}}(\mathcal U)\qquad\text{for the instance }\mathcal I\text{ of (6), every }\delta>0\text{ and every even }m>200/\delta^2 .zAff​(U)>(2−δ)⋅zAdapt​(U)for the instance I of (6), every δ>0 and every even m>200/δ2.

Milestones

  1. Lemma 1. On I\mathcal II there is a feasible fully adaptable solution with worst-case cost 111, so zAdapt(U)≤1z_{\mathrm{Adapt}}(\mathcal U) \le 1zAdapt​(U)≤1.
  2. Lemma 2. The set U\mathcal UU of (6) is permutation-invariant with respect to every τ∈Γ\tau \in \Gammaτ∈Γ.
  3. Lemma 3. There is an optimal affine solution y^(b)=P^b+q^\hat y(b) = \hat Pb + \hat qy^​(b)=P^b+q^​ whose intercept is constant: q^i=q^j\hat q_i = \hat q_jq^​i​=q^​j​ for all i,ji, ji,j.
  4. First Claim of the proof of Theorem 2. For any feasible affine solution with intercept q^≡β\hat q \equiv \betaq^​≡β and worst-case cost at most 2−δ2-\delta2−δ: β≤(2−δ)/m\beta \le (2-\delta)/mβ≤(2−δ)/m.
  5. Second Claim. Under the same assumption, P^jj≥1−2/m−2/m\hat P_{jj} \ge 1 - 2/\sqrt m - 2/mP^jj​≥1−2/m​−2/m for every jjj.
  6. Third Claim. Under the same assumption, P^ij≥−(2−δ)/m\hat P_{ij} \ge -(2-\delta)/mP^ij​≥−(2−δ)/m for all i,ji, ji,j.

Significance

Together with Theorem 1 of the same paper, Theorem 2 delimits exactly where affine policies are optimal for right-hand-side uncertainty: for a simplex they are, and with one more nonzero extreme point the gap can approach 222. The ratio is measured against the fully adaptable optimum, which is the quantity a practitioner gives up by choosing affine recourse. Later sections of the paper push the same construction to m1/2−δm^{1/2-\delta}m1/2−δ for sets with polynomially many extreme points and prove a matching O(m)O(\sqrt m)O(m​) upper bound; Theorem 2 is the simplest member of this family and isolates the mechanism.

The result is proved in the paper; to our knowledge it has not been machine-checked. The mission produces a formal model of two-stage adaptive linear optimization with uncertain right-hand side, the values zAdaptz_{\mathrm{Adapt}}zAdapt​ and zAffz_{\mathrm{Aff}}zAff​, and a verified lower-bound instance. The symmetrization statement (Lemma 3) is an instance of a general principle, that a convex problem invariant under a group has an invariant optimum, which is reusable well beyond this paper.

Difficulty

The upper bound zAdapt≤1z_{\mathrm{Adapt}} \le 1zAdapt​≤1 requires a feasible policy, which can be written down. The lower bound on zAffz_{\mathrm{Aff}}zAff​ is a statement about all affine policies, an m2+mm^2 + mm2+m dimensional family, and cannot be checked policy by policy. The obvious attempt, testing an arbitrary affine policy against a few extreme points, fails because an asymmetric policy can trade cost between coordinates. The argument needs an optimal policy that is symmetric, which in turn needs both the existence of an optimal affine solution (attainment of a minimum over a non-compact set of policies) and the invariance of the instance under the permutations of Γ\GammaΓ and the swap of the two halves. Without the attainment step, a contradiction for every policy of cost at most 2−δ2-\delta2−δ yields only zAff≥2−δz_{\mathrm{Aff}} \ge 2-\deltazAff​≥2−δ, not the strict inequality.

Formalization scope

Vectors are Fin m → ℝ with the componentwise order, matrices are Matrix (Fin m) (Fin n) ℝ, BxBxBx is B *ᵥ x and dTyd^TydTy is d ⬝ᵥ y. Indices are 0-based: the paper's coordinate iii is index i−1i - 1i−1, so "i≤m/2i \le m/2i≤m/2" is (i : ℕ) < m / 2, with natural-number division (exact since mmm is even). xτx^\tauxτ is x ∘ τ for τ : Equiv.Perm (Fin m).

zAdaptz_{\mathrm{Adapt}}zAdapt​ and zAffz_{\mathrm{Aff}}zAff​ are the infima of the sets of real numbers ttt for which some feasible (respectively feasible affine) solution satisfies cTx+dTy(b)≤tc^Tx + d^Ty(b) \le tcTx+dTy(b)≤t for all b∈Ub \in \mathcal Ub∈U. This epigraph form avoids a supremum of a possibly unbounded function; on an infeasible instance the infimum would be Lean's junk value 000, which is why Lemma 1 also asserts the existence of the feasible solution of cost 111. Optimal solutions are stated by IsOptimalAff: feasible, with worst-case cost bounded by every bound achieved by any feasible affine solution. Affine policies must be nonnegative on U\mathcal UU, as in (1).

The instance is concrete, so the standing assumptions of (1) (nonnegative costs, compact convex full-dimensional U⊆R+m\mathcal U \subseteq \mathbb R^m_+U⊆R+m​, feasibility) are properties of the data rather than hypotheses. The goal adds no hypothesis to the page: δ>0\delta > 0δ>0, mmm even and m>200/δ2m > 200/\delta^2m>200/δ2. For δ≥2\delta \ge 2δ≥2 the statement is easy but still true. The three Claims are stated for any feasible affine solution with constant intercept and worst-case cost at most 2−δ2-\delta2−δ, which is exactly what the paper's proof uses about the symmetric optimal solution under its contradiction hypothesis (12). Lemma 1 drops the unused hypothesis m>200/δ2m > 200/\delta^2m>200/δ2. Definition 2 prints "x∈P  ⟺  xτ∈Px \in P \iff x^\tau \in Px∈P⟺xτ∈P"; the formalization reads PPP as the set UUU.

Replacing zAffz_{\mathrm{Aff}}zAff​ by the cost of one particular affine policy, stating the goal with ≥\ge≥, or bounding only policies with constant intercept would not be Theorem 2, and is ruled out: the goal compares the two optimal values with a strict inequality.

A complete development needs convex hulls of finite point sets in Fin m → ℝ, the existence of a minimizer for the affine problem (a linear program in (x,P,q)(x, P, q)(x,P,q) with infinitely many constraints indexed by U\mathcal UU, reducible to the extreme points), averaging of optimal solutions over a permutation group, and elementary estimates with m\sqrt mm​. Contributions of general lemmas on attainment of semi-infinite linear programs and on symmetrization of convex programs are welcome.

Selected references

  • D. Bertsimas, V. Goyal, On the power and limitations of affine policies in two-stage adaptive optimization, Mathematical Programming Ser. A (online first 2011; received 31 Oct 2009, accepted 17 Jan 2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10107-011-0444-4
  • A. Ben-Tal, A. Goryashko, E. Guslitzer, A. Nemirovski, Adjustable robust solutions of uncertain linear programs, Mathematical Programming 99 (2004) 351–376. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10107-003-0454-y
  • D. Bertsimas, D. A. Iancu, P. A. Parrilo, Optimality of affine policies in multistage robust optimization, Mathematics of Operations Research 35 (2010) 363–394. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.1100.0444
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Linear OptimizationOperations ResearchOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

On the Power and Limitations of Affine Policies in Two-Stage Adaptive Optimization IV: When A ≥ 0 the Best Affine Policy Costs at Most 3√m Times the Fully Adaptable OptimumResearch Paper

Motivation

Two-stage adaptive optimization models decisions taken in two steps: a first-stage decision xxx is fixed before an uncertain right-hand side bbb is revealed, and a second-stage decision y(b)y(b)y(b) is chosen after it, as a function of bbb. The objective protects against the worst bbb in an uncertainty set U\mathcal UU. Computing an optimal fully adaptable solution is intractable in general (Feige, Jain, Mahdian and Mirrokni, IPCO 2007), so practitioners restrict the second stage to affine policies y(b)=Pb+qy(b)=Pb+qy(b)=Pb+q, introduced in robust optimization by Ben-Tal, Goryashko, Guslitzer and Nemirovski (Math. Program. 2004). An optimal affine policy is computed by a single convex program, but its cost may exceed the adaptive optimum.

Bertsimas and Goyal (Math. Program. Ser. A, 2012) quantify this loss. Earlier, Bertsimas, Iancu and Parrilo (Math. Oper. Res. 2010) proved affine policies optimal for a class of one-dimensional multistage problems. The present paper shows that affine policies are optimal when U\mathcal UU is a simplex (Theorem 1), that they can lose a factor Ω(m1/2−δ)\Omega(m^{1/2-\delta})Ω(m1/2−δ) in general (Theorem 3), and — the subject of this mission — that when the first-stage constraint matrix is nonnegative they never lose more than 3m3\sqrt m3m​ (Theorem 4). Nonnegative first-stage matrices occur in network design, facility location, capacity planning and other covering problems.

Setting

Let A∈Rm×n1A\in\mathbb R^{m\times n_1}A∈Rm×n1​, B∈Rm×n2B\in\mathbb R^{m\times n_2}B∈Rm×n2​, c∈R+n1c\in\mathbb R^{n_1}_+c∈R+n1​​, d∈R+n2d\in\mathbb R^{n_2}_+d∈R+n2​​, and let U⊆R+m\mathcal U\subseteq\mathbb R^m_+U⊆R+m​ be convex, compact and full-dimensional. The problem ΠAdapt(U)\Pi_{Adapt}(\mathcal U)ΠAdapt​(U) is

zAdapt(U)=min⁡  cTx+max⁡b∈UdTy(b)s.t.Ax+By(b)≥b,  x≥0,  y(b)≥0∀b∈U,z_{Adapt}(\mathcal U)=\min\; c^Tx+\max_{b\in\mathcal U}d^Ty(b)\quad\text{s.t.}\quad Ax+By(b)\ge b,\ \ x\ge0,\ \ y(b)\ge0\quad\forall b\in\mathcal U,zAdapt​(U)=mincTx+b∈Umax​dTy(b)s.t.Ax+By(b)≥b,  x≥0,  y(b)≥0∀b∈U,

where the minimum is over first-stage vectors xxx and arbitrary maps b↦y(b)b\mapsto y(b)b↦y(b). The problem is assumed feasible. The value zAff(U)z_{Aff}(\mathcal U)zAff​(U) is the same minimum restricted to affine second stages y(b)=Pb+qy(b)=Pb+qy(b)=Pb+q, which must still satisfy Pb+q≥0Pb+q\ge0Pb+q≥0 on U\mathcal UU.

For each coordinate jjj put μj=max⁡{bj:b∈U}\mu_j=\max\{b_j : b\in\mathcal U\}μj​=max{bj​:b∈U} and fix a maximizer βj∈U\beta^j\in\mathcal Uβj∈U with βjj=μj\beta^j_j=\mu_jβjj​=μj​ (display (38)). The scaled sum of bbb over an index set JJJ is ∑j∈Jbj/μj\sum_{j\in J}b_j/\mu_j∑j∈J​bj​/μj​.

Algorithm A\mathcal AA (Fig. 1 of the paper) starts with J1={1,…,m}J_1=\{1,\dots,m\}J1​={1,…,m} and b0=0b^0=0b0=0. While some b∈Ub\in\mathcal Ub∈U has scaled sum over J1J_1J1​ larger than m\sqrt mm​, it picks a maximizer uk∈Uu^k\in\mathcal Uuk∈U of that scaled sum, adds uku^kuk to the running vector on the coordinates of J1J_1J1​, and moves to J2J_2J2​ every coordinate jjj whose running value has reached μj\mu_jμj​. It returns the number of iterations KKK, the vectors u1,…,uKu^1,\dots,u^Ku1,…,uK, their sum β=u1+⋯+uK\beta=u^1+\dots+u^Kβ=u1+⋯+uK, and the partition J1,J2J_1,J_2J1​,J2​.

In the kkk-uncertain variant (60)–(63), only kkk right-hand sides b∈U⊆R+kb\in\mathcal U\subseteq\mathbb R^k_+b∈U⊆R+k​ are uncertain and the remaining m−km-km−k are fixed at b0b^0b0; all data are nonnegative. Its values are zAdaptk(U)z^k_{Adapt}(\mathcal U)zAdaptk​(U) and zAffk(U)z^k_{Aff}(\mathcal U)zAffk​(U).

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 4

If A≥0A\ge0A≥0 entrywise, then a feasible affine solution exists and

zAff(U)≤3m⋅zAdapt(U).z_{Aff}(\mathcal U)\le 3\sqrt m\cdot z_{Adapt}(\mathcal U).zAff​(U)≤3m​⋅zAdapt​(U).

Milestones

  1. μj>0\mu_j>0μj​>0 for every jjj (after (38)).
  2. Lemma 9. For every complete run of Algorithm A\mathcal AA: ∑j∈J1bj/μj≤m\sum_{j\in J_1}b_j/\mu_j\le\sqrt m∑j∈J1​​bj​/μj​≤m​ for all b∈Ub\in\mathcal Ub∈U, and bj≤βjb_j\le\beta_jbj​≤βj​ for all j∈J2j\in J_2j∈J2​ and b∈Ub\in\mathcal Ub∈U.
  3. Lemma 10. Algorithm A\mathcal AA executes at most K≤2mK\le2\sqrt mK≤2m​ iterations.
  4. Feasibility (48)–(55). For any feasible (x∗,y∗)(x^*,y^*)(x∗,y∗), the solution x~=3m x∗\tilde x=3\sqrt m\,x^*x~=3m​x∗, y~(b)=∑j∈J1bjμjy∗(βj)+y^\tilde y(b)=\sum_{j\in J_1}\frac{b_j}{\mu_j}y^*(\beta^j)+\hat yy~​(b)=∑j∈J1​​μj​bj​​y∗(βj)+y^​ with y^=2mK∑k=1Ky∗(uk)\hat y=\frac{2\sqrt m}{K}\sum_{k=1}^Ky^*(u^k)y^​=K2m​​∑k=1K​y∗(uk) is feasible.
  5. Cost (56)–(59). If ttt bounds the worst-case cost of (x∗,y∗)(x^*,y^*)(x∗,y∗), then 3m⋅t3\sqrt m\cdot t3m​⋅t bounds that of (x~,y~)(\tilde x,\tilde y)(x~,y~​).

Companion results

  • Algorithm A\mathcal AA has a complete run when U\mathcal UU is compact.
  • Lemma 11. z(Π1)≤zAdaptk(U)z(\Pi_1)\le z^k_{Adapt}(\mathcal U)z(Π1​)≤zAdaptk​(U) and z(Π2)≤zAdaptk(U)z(\Pi_2)\le z^k_{Adapt}(\mathcal U)z(Π2​)≤zAdaptk​(U) for the uncertain and deterministic parts of the kkk-uncertain problem.
  • Theorem 5. zAffk(U)≤(3k+1)⋅zAdaptk(U)z^k_{Aff}(\mathcal U)\le(3\sqrt k+1)\cdot z^k_{Adapt}(\mathcal U)zAffk​(U)≤(3k​+1)⋅zAdaptk​(U), the paper's O(k)O(\sqrt k)O(k​) bound with its proof's constant.
  • Special case (39)–(45). If ∑j=1mbj/μj≤m\sum_{j=1}^m b_j/\mu_j\le\sqrt m∑j=1m​bj​/μj​≤m​ on U\mathcal UU, then zAff(U)≤m⋅zAdapt(U)z_{Aff}(\mathcal U)\le\sqrt m\cdot z_{Adapt}(\mathcal U)zAff​(U)≤m​⋅zAdapt​(U).

Significance

Theorem 4 is an upper bound on the price of restricting to affine policies, and Theorem 3 of the same paper shows it is tight up to a constant factor: for every δ>0\delta>0δ>0 there are instances with A≥0A\ge0A≥0 where the gap is Ω(m1/2−δ)\Omega(m^{1/2-\delta})Ω(m1/2−δ). Together they settle the order of the approximation ratio of affine policies for covering-type two-stage problems. Theorem 5 refines the bound to O(k)O(\sqrt k)O(k​) when only kkk of the mmm right-hand sides are uncertain, which is the regime of many applications. The construction is also the template for the paper's Theorem 6, a 4m4\sqrt m4m​-approximation for general AAA obtained from a single dominating simplex.

The results are proved in the paper. To the knowledge of this mission, none of them has a machine-checked proof. Formalizing them produces a reusable model of two-stage adaptive linear programs with affine policies, a verified analysis of a greedy covering procedure (Algorithm A\mathcal AA), and an explicit-constant version of an O(⋅)O(\cdot)O(⋅) statement.

Difficulty

The obvious attempt scales the fully adaptable solution at the extreme points βj\beta^jβj linearly in bbb: y~(b)=∑j(bj/μj) y∗(βj)\tilde y(b)=\sum_j (b_j/\mu_j)\,y^*(\beta^j)y~​(b)=∑j​(bj​/μj​)y∗(βj). This is feasible at cost factor m\sqrt mm​ only when the scaled sums ∑jbj/μj\sum_j b_j/\mu_j∑j​bj​/μj​ stay below m\sqrt mm​ on U\mathcal UU (condition (39)); in general they can reach mmm, and the linear rule then costs a factor mmm. The difficulty is to handle the coordinates where U\mathcal UU has large scaled mass. Algorithm A\mathcal AA isolates them, and the delicate point is the iteration count: each round must add scaled mass above m\sqrt mm​, while the total scaled mass that can be absorbed before every coordinate leaves J1J_1J1​ is at most 2m2m2m. A formal proof must also track the algorithm's state through its recursion, because the argmax choices are not unique and the statements must hold for every run.

Formalization scope

Vectors are Fin m → ℝ with the componentwise order, indices are 0-based, and matrices are Matrix (Fin m) (Fin n) ℝ. Nonnegativity of a matrix is stated entrywise. zAdaptz_{Adapt}zAdapt​ and zAffz_{Aff}zAff​ are infima of the set of worst-case cost bounds achieved by feasible solutions; the goal and Theorem 5 assert the existence of a feasible affine solution, which rules out the trivializing reading in which zAffz_{Aff}zAff​ is the infimum of an empty set (Lean's junk value 000) and the inequality holds for free. The goal does not mention μ\muμ, βj\beta^jβj or Algorithm A\mathcal AA; these appear only in milestones.

μ\muμ and βj\beta^jβj are given with their defining properties (μj\mu_jμj​ is the greatest value of bjb_jbj​ on U\mathcal UU, and βj∈U\beta^j\in\mathcal Uβj∈U with βjj=μj\beta^j_j=\mu_jβjj​=μj​). Algorithm A\mathcal AA is encoded as a recursion on a choice sequence uuu, with step 2(d) read as J1k={j∈J1k−1:bjk<μj}J_1^k=\{j\in J_1^{k-1}: b^k_j<\mu_j\}J1k​={j∈J1k−1​:bjk​<μj​}. A complete run requires the loop test and the argmax property at each iteration and the failure of the loop test at the end. The milestones on the constructed policy are stated for every feasible (x∗,y∗)(x^*,y^*)(x∗,y∗) and every cost bound ttt, so that no attainment of the optimum is assumed.

Standing assumptions of (1) carried by the goal: c,d≥0c,d\ge0c,d≥0; U⊆R+m\mathcal U\subseteq\mathbb R^m_+U⊆R+m​ convex, compact, with nonempty interior; feasibility. Milestones drop the ones they do not use. Theorem 5 carries compactness and full-dimensionality of U\mathcal UU, which §5.1 does not repeat but its proof uses through Theorem 4. Lemma 11 assumes that zAdaptk(U)z^k_{Adapt}(\mathcal U)zAdaptk​(U) is finite, since the paper's inequality is between extended reals.

A complete development needs: finite-dimensional linear programming facts (existence of optimal solutions is not needed), compactness arguments for the argmax in Algorithm A\mathcal AA, and manipulation of finite sums over Finset. The model of (1) and the analysis of Algorithm A\mathcal AA are reusable by the companion mission on Theorem 6. Contributions of proofs of any milestone, and of supporting lemmas about the recursion of Algorithm A\mathcal AA, are welcome.

Selected references

  • D. Bertsimas and V. Goyal, On the power and limitations of affine policies in two-stage adaptive optimization, Math. Program. Ser. A, 2012. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10107-011-0444-4
  • A. Ben-Tal, A. Goryashko, E. Guslitzer and A. Nemirovski, Adjustable robust solutions of uncertain linear programs, Math. Program. 99(2), 351–376, 2004. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10107-003-0454-y
  • D. Bertsimas, D. A. Iancu and P. A. Parrilo, Optimality of affine policies in multistage robust optimization, Math. Oper. Res. 35(2), 363–394, 2010.
  • U. Feige, K. Jain, M. Mahdian and V. Mirrokni, Robust combinatorial optimization with exponential scenarios, Lect. Notes Comput. Sci. 4513, 439–453, 2007.
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Control TheoryDynamic ProgrammingOperations Research+3·Captain: mikedeng1

Stochastic Optimal Control: The Discrete-Time Case IX: Imperfect State Information — Reduction to a Perfect-Information Model through a Statistic Sufficient for ControlTextbook

Motivation

In most control problems the controller does not see the state of the system. It sees noisy observations, remembers its past controls, and must act on that record. Inventory systems with delayed or inaccurate counts, maintenance of machines whose wear is only inspected, target tracking, and medical treatment planned from test results all have this form. The standard device for such problems is to replace the hidden state by a summary of the record, most often the conditional distribution of the state given the observations, and to solve a dynamic program whose state is that summary.

For finite or countable spaces this reduction goes back to Åström (1965) and Striebel (1965), who introduced the conditional distribution of the state as a "sufficient statistic" for control. Chapter 10 of Bertsekas and Shreve, Stochastic Optimal Control: The Discrete-Time Case (Academic Press 1978; Athena Scientific 1996) carries it out for Borel state, control and observation spaces, with universally measurable policies and costs that are only lower semianalytic. In that generality the measurability of the reduced model is the whole difficulty, and the chapter isolates exactly what a summary must satisfy for the reduction to be exact.

Setting

The imperfect state information model (ISI) of Definition 10.3 has a nonempty Borel state space SSS, control space CCC and observation space ZZZ; a discount factor α>0\alpha>0α>0; a lower semianalytic cost g:SC→R∗=[−∞,∞]g:SC\to R^*=[-\infty,\infty]g:SC→R∗=[−∞,∞]; a Borel state transition kernel t(dx′∣x,u)t(dx'\mid x,u)t(dx′∣x,u); Borel observation kernels s0(dz∣x)s_0(dz\mid x)s0​(dz∣x) and s(dz∣u,x)s(dz\mid u,x)s(dz∣u,x); and a horizon NNN. The initial state x0x_0x0​ has distribution p∈P(S)p\in P(S)p∈P(S), z0∼s0(⋅∣x0)z_0\sim s_0(\cdot\mid x_0)z0​∼s0​(⋅∣x0​), and then xk+1∼t(⋅∣xk,uk)x_{k+1}\sim t(\cdot\mid x_k,u_k)xk+1​∼t(⋅∣xk​,uk​), zk+1∼s(⋅∣uk,xk+1)z_{k+1}\sim s(\cdot\mid u_k,x_{k+1})zk+1​∼s(⋅∣uk​,xk+1​). The controller knows the information vector ik=(z0,u0,…,uk−1,zk)∈Iki_k=(z_0,u_0,\dots,u_{k-1},z_k)\in I_kik​=(z0​,u0​,…,uk−1​,zk​)∈Ik​ and must choose uk∈Uk(ik)u_k\in U_k(i_k)uk​∈Uk​(ik​), where the constraint set Γk={(ik,u)∣u∈Uk(ik)}\Gamma_k=\{(i_k,u)\mid u\in U_k(i_k)\}Γk​={(ik​,u)∣u∈Uk​(ik​)} is analytic.

A policy π=(μ0,…,μN−1)\pi=(\mu_0,\dots,\mu_{N-1})π=(μ0​,…,μN−1​) consists of universally measurable stochastic kernels μk(duk∣p;ik)\mu_k(du_k\mid p;i_k)μk​(duk​∣p;ik​) that respect the constraints (Definition 10.4). Together with ppp it determines probability measures Pk(π,p)P_k(\pi,p)Pk​(π,p) on the histories (x0,z0,u0,…,xk,zk,uk)(x_0,z_0,u_0,\dots,x_k,z_k,u_k)(x0​,z0​,u0​,…,xk​,zk​,uk​), the cost

JN,π(p)=∫[∑k=0N−1αkg(xk,uk)]dPN−1(π,p),J_{N,\pi}(p)=\int\Big[\sum_{k=0}^{N-1}\alpha^k g(x_k,u_k)\Big]dP_{N-1}(\pi,p),JN,π​(p)=∫[k=0∑N−1​αkg(xk​,uk​)]dPN−1​(π,p),

and the optimal cost JN∗(p)=inf⁡πJN,π(p)J^*_N(p)=\inf_\pi J_{N,\pi}(p)JN∗​(p)=infπ​JN,π​(p) (Definition 10.5). Assumption (F+)(F^+)(F+) asks that the expected discounted negative part of the cost be finite for every policy and initial distribution; (F−)(F^-)(F−) asks the same of the positive part.

A statistic is a sequence of Borel maps ηk:P(S)Ik→Yk\eta_k:P(S)I_k\to Y_kηk​:P(S)Ik​→Yk​ into nonempty Borel spaces. It is sufficient for control (Definition 10.6) if (a) the constraints can be read off from it, Γk={(ik,u)∣(ηk(p;ik),u)∈Γ^k}\Gamma_k=\{(i_k,u)\mid(\eta_k(p;i_k),u)\in\hat\Gamma_k\}Γk​={(ik​,u)∣(ηk​(p;ik​),u)∈Γ^k​} with Γ^k\hat\Gamma_kΓ^k​ analytic; (b) the conditional law of ηk+1\eta_{k+1}ηk+1​ given (ηk,uk)(\eta_k,u_k)(ηk​,uk​) is a Borel kernel t^k(dyk+1∣yk,uk)\hat t_k(dy_{k+1}\mid y_k,u_k)t^k​(dyk+1​∣yk​,uk​), for every ppp and every policy; and (c) the conditional expectation of g(xk,uk)g(x_k,u_k)g(xk​,uk​) given (ηk,uk)(\eta_k,u_k)(ηk​,uk​) is a lower semianalytic function g^k(yk,uk)\hat g_k(y_k,u_k)g^​k​(yk​,uk​). The perfect state information model (PSI) of Definition 10.7 has states yk∈Yky_k\in Y_kyk​∈Yk​, constraints U^k(yk)=(Γ^k)yk\hat U_k(y_k)=(\hat\Gamma_k)_{y_k}U^k​(yk​)=(Γ^k​)yk​​, costs g^k\hat g_kg^​k​ and transitions t^k\hat t_kt^k​; its cost and optimal cost at y∈Y0y\in Y_0y∈Y0​ are J^N,π^(y)\hat J_{N,\hat\pi}(y)J^N,π^​(y) and J^N∗(y)\hat J^*_N(y)J^N∗​(y). The initial distribution of y0y_0y0​ is

φ(p)(Y‾0)=∫Ss0({z0∣η0(p;z0)∈Y‾0}∣x0) p(dx0).\varphi(p)(\underline Y_0)=\int_S s_0(\{z_0\mid\eta_0(p;z_0)\in\underline Y_0\}\mid x_0)\,p(dx_0).φ(p)(Y​0​)=∫S​s0​({z0​∣η0​(p;z0​)∈Y​0​}∣x0​)p(dx0​).

A Markov (PSI) policy μ^k(du∣yk)\hat\mu_k(du\mid y_k)μ^​k​(du∣yk​) acts in (ISI) through μk(du∣p;ik)=μ^k(du∣ηk(p;ik))\mu_k(du\mid p;i_k)=\hat\mu_k(du\mid\eta_k(p;i_k))μk​(du∣p;ik​)=μ^​k​(du∣ηk​(p;ik​)).

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 10.3

Under (F+,F^+)(F^+,\hat F^+)(F+,F^+) or (F−,F^−)(F^-,\hat F^-)(F−,F^−),

JN∗(p)=∫Y0J^N∗(y0) φ(p)(dy0)∀p∈P(S),J^*_N(p)=\int_{Y_0}\hat J^*_N(y_0)\,\varphi(p)(dy_0)\qquad\forall p\in P(S),JN∗​(p)=∫Y0​​J^N∗​(y0​)φ(p)(dy0​)∀p∈P(S),

and a Markov (PSI) policy that is optimal, φ(p)\varphi(p)φ(p)-optimal or weakly φ(p)\varphi(p)φ(p)-ε\varepsilonε-optimal for (PSI) is respectively optimal, optimal at ppp, or ε\varepsilonε-optimal at ppp for (ISI); under (F+,F^+)(F^+,\hat F^+)(F+,F^+) an ε\varepsilonε-optimal (PSI) policy is ε\varepsilonε-optimal for (ISI). Here π^\hat\piπ^ is weakly qqq-ε\varepsilonε-optimal if ∫J^N,π^ dq≤∫J^N∗ dq+ε\int\hat J_{N,\hat\pi}\,dq\le\int\hat J^*_N\,dq+\varepsilon∫J^N,π^​dq≤∫J^N∗​dq+ε when ∫J^N∗ dq>−∞\int\hat J^*_N\,dq>-\infty∫J^N∗​dq>−∞ and ∫J^N,π^ dq≤−1/ε\int\hat J_{N,\hat\pi}\,dq\le-1/\varepsilon∫J^N,π^​dq≤−1/ε otherwise, and qqq-optimal if q({y0∣J^N,π^(y0)=J^N∗(y0)})=1q(\{y_0\mid\hat J_{N,\hat\pi}(y_0)=\hat J^*_N(y_0)\})=1q({y0​∣J^N,π^​(y0​)=J^N∗​(y0​)})=1 (Definition 10.8).

Milestones

  1. Lemma 10.1: the process (η0,u0,…,ηk,uk)(\eta_0,u_0,\dots,\eta_k,u_k)(η0​,u0​,…,ηk​,uk​) generated in (ISI) by a Markov (PSI) policy has the law P^k[π^,φ(p)]\hat P_k[\hat\pi,\varphi(p)]P^k​[π^,φ(p)].
  2. Proposition 10.2: JN,π^(p)=∫J^N,π^ dφ(p)J_{N,\hat\pi}(p)=\int\hat J_{N,\hat\pi}\,d\varphi(p)JN,π^​(p)=∫J^N,π^​dφ(p) for Markov π^\hat\piπ^.
  3. Corollary 10.2.1: JN∗(p)≤∫J^N∗ dφ(p)J^*_N(p)\le\int\hat J^*_N\,d\varphi(p)JN∗​(p)≤∫J^N∗​dφ(p).
  4. Lemma 10.2: every (ISI) policy is matched in cost by some Markov (PSI) policy.
  5. Proposition 10.4: ε\varepsilonε-optimal nonrandomized (ISI) policies that depend on iki_kik​ only through ηk(p;ik)\eta_k(p;i_k)ηk​(p;ik​).
  6. Proposition 10.6: the identity maps on P(S)IkP(S)I_kP(S)Ik​ form a statistic sufficient for control.

Significance

Proposition 10.3 says that an imperfect-information problem loses nothing by being solved in the reduced model: the optimal cost is the φ(p)\varphi(p)φ(p)-average of the reduced optimal cost, and good reduced policies are good original policies. Combined with Proposition 10.6, every (ISI) model has such a reduction, so the finite-horizon dynamic programming theory of Chapter 8 (existence of ε\varepsilonε-optimal policies, the dynamic programming algorithm) transfers to partially observed problems on Borel spaces. Proposition 10.4 turns this into a structural statement about the original problem: nearly optimal controllers need to retain only the statistic.

These results are proved in the book. None of them is formalized: the platform's related results (Bäuerle–Rieder's partially observable models with observation densities, and the linear-quadratic-Gaussian separation theorem) work in different models and do not cover universally measurable policies, analytic constraints, or lower semianalytic costs. A machine-checked version makes the conditional-expectation bookkeeping of the reduction explicit, and the definitions of this mission (universal measurability, lower semianalytic functions, the book's extended integral, history measures built from universally measurable kernels) are reusable by every other chapter of the book.

Difficulty

The obvious argument says: replace the state by the statistic, observe that costs and transitions depend only on the statistic, and conclude. In the Borel setting each step is a measurability claim that the naive argument does not supply. The conditions of Definition 10.6 are almost-everywhere statements about conditional distributions under every pair (p,π)(p,\pi)(p,π), while the reduced model needs genuine kernels; the policies are only universally measurable, so integrals and compositions must be taken with respect to completions; the costs take the values ±∞\pm\infty±∞, so interchanging sums and integrals requires the finiteness assumptions (F±)(F^\pm)(F±) and (F^±)(\hat F^\pm)(F^±); and the inequality JN∗≥∫J^N∗ dφ(p)J^*_N\ge\int\hat J^*_N\,d\varphi(p)JN∗​≥∫J^N∗​dφ(p) requires producing, from an arbitrary history-dependent (ISI) policy, a Markov (PSI) policy with the same cost, which the naive argument does not do.

Formalization scope

  • Horizon. Only finite horizons N≥1N\ge1N≥1 are covered, hence only the cases (F+,F^+)(F^+,\hat F^+)(F+,F^+) and (F−,F^−)(F^-,\hat F^-)(F−,F^−) of the book's statements; the infinite-horizon cases (P,P^)(P,\hat P)(P,P^), (N,N^)(N,\hat N)(N,N^), (D,D^)(D,\hat D)(D,D^) are out of scope.
  • Extended reals. Costs live in EReal with the book's convention ∞−∞=+∞\infty-\infty=+\infty∞−∞=+∞ written out explicitly (badd, bsum, extIntegral); Mathlib's EReal subtraction (⊤−⊤=⊥\top-\top=\bot⊤−⊤=⊥) is never used where both terms can be infinite.
  • Spaces and measures. SSS, CCC, ZZZ, YkY_kYk​ are Borel spaces in the sense of Definition 7.7 with their Borel σ\sigmaσ-algebras; P(S)P(S)P(S) carries the weak topology and the Giry σ\sigmaσ-algebra. Policies are families of maps into ProbabilityMeasure C that are measurable for the completion of every probability measure. History measures are characterized by their values on rectangles. Families indexed by the stage are indexed by all of N\mathbb NN; only stages k<Nk<Nk<N are constrained.
  • Conditional statements. Conditions (22) and (23) are stated through the defining relations of conditional probability and expectation, for every ppp and every policy, with (23) required when g(xk,uk)g(x_k,u_k)g(xk​,uk​) is quasi-integrable.
  • Policies in Proposition 10.3. The (PSI) policies in the optimality transfers are Markov, as in Proposition 10.2.
  • No trivialization. Definition 10.6 is the full definition: analytic Γ^k\hat\Gamma_kΓ^k​ with full projection, Borel kernels t^k\hat t_kt^k​ satisfying (22) for every ppp and policy, and lower semianalytic g^k\hat g_kg^​k​ satisfying (23); a weaker notion would make Proposition 10.6 empty.

Contributions are welcome on any milestone. Basic facts that a full development needs, such as composition of universally measurable maps (Proposition 7.44), measurability of integrals against universally measurable kernels (Proposition 7.46), and existence of the history measures (Proposition 7.45), can be posed and proved as supporting lemmas; they are reusable across the book.

Selected references

  • D. P. Bertsekas and S. E. Shreve, Stochastic Optimal Control: The Discrete-Time Case, Academic Press, 1978; Athena Scientific, 1996, Chapter 10. https://web.mit.edu/dimitrib/www/soc.html
  • K. J. Åström, Optimal control of Markov processes with incomplete state information, Journal of Mathematical Analysis and Applications 10 (1965) 174–205. https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-247X(65)90154-X
  • C. Striebel, Sufficient statistics in the optimum control of stochastic systems, Journal of Mathematical Analysis and Applications 12 (1965) 576–592. https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-247X(65)90027-2
  • N. Bäuerle and U. Rieder, Markov Decision Processes with Applications to Finance, Springer, 2011, Chapter 5. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-18324-9
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Operations ResearchOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Assortment Optimization under Variants of the Nested Logit Model 2: With Dissimilarity Parameters at Most One and Fully-Captured Nests, a Nested-by-Revenue Assortment in Every Nest Is OptimalResearch Paper

Motivation

A retailer choosing which products to display, or an airline choosing which fare classes to open, solves an assortment optimization problem: pick the set of offered products that maximizes expected revenue when customers choose among what is offered according to a discrete choice model. Under the multinomial logit model the answer has a simple form: an optimal assortment consists of the few highest-revenue products (Talluri and van Ryzin, 2004). The multinomial logit model, however, forces every pair of products to compete in the same way. The nested logit model relaxes this by grouping products into nests (brands, store sections, departure times) and letting a customer first choose a nest and then a product inside it.

Davis, Gallego and Topaloglu (Operations Research, 2014; DOI 10.1287/opre.2014.1256) study how much of the multinomial logit structure survives under the nested logit model. Their first answer is the theorem this mission targets: when the nest dissimilarity parameters are at most one and no customer who chose a nest leaves it without buying, offering the top products of each nest is still optimal. The other missions of this series treat the cases where this fails: dissimilarity parameters above one (the problem becomes NP-hard) and nests with their own no-purchase option.

Setting

There are mmm nests M={1,…,m}M = \{1, \dots, m\}M={1,…,m} and, in each nest, nnn products N={1,…,n}N = \{1, \dots, n\}N={1,…,n}. Product jjj of nest iii has a revenue rij≥0r_{ij} \ge 0rij​≥0 and a preference weight vij>0v_{ij} > 0vij​>0; products are ordered so that ri1≥ri2≥⋯≥rinr_{i1} \ge r_{i2} \ge \dots \ge r_{in}ri1​≥ri2​≥⋯≥rin​. Nest iii carries a dissimilarity parameter γi>0\gamma_i > 0γi​>0 and a within-nest no-purchase weight vi0≥0v_{i0} \ge 0vi0​≥0, and v0≥0v_0 \ge 0v0​≥0 is the weight of choosing no nest at all.

An assortment is a tuple (S1,…,Sm)(S_1, \dots, S_m)(S1​,…,Sm​) of subsets Si⊆NS_i \subseteq NSi​⊆N. Write

Vi(Si)=vi0+∑j∈Sivij,Ri(Si)=∑j∈SirijvijVi(Si),Ri(∅)=0.V_i(S_i) = v_{i0} + \sum_{j \in S_i} v_{ij}, \qquad R_i(S_i) = \frac{\sum_{j \in S_i} r_{ij} v_{ij}}{V_i(S_i)}, \quad R_i(\emptyset) = 0.Vi​(Si​)=vi0​+j∈Si​∑​vij​,Ri​(Si​)=Vi​(Si​)∑j∈Si​​rij​vij​​,Ri​(∅)=0.

A customer picks nest iii with probability Qi=Vi(Si)γi/(v0+∑l∈MVl(Sl)γl)Q_i = V_i(S_i)^{\gamma_i} / (v_0 + \sum_{l \in M} V_l(S_l)^{\gamma_l})Qi​=Vi​(Si​)γi​/(v0​+∑l∈M​Vl​(Sl​)γl​) and then, inside the nest, product jjj with probability vij/Vi(Si)v_{ij}/V_i(S_i)vij​/Vi​(Si​). The expected revenue is

Π(S1,…,Sm)=∑i∈MQi Ri(Si)=∑i∈MVi(Si)γiRi(Si)v0+∑i∈MVi(Si)γi,\Pi(S_1, \dots, S_m) = \sum_{i \in M} Q_i\, R_i(S_i) = \frac{\sum_{i \in M} V_i(S_i)^{\gamma_i} R_i(S_i)}{v_0 + \sum_{i \in M} V_i(S_i)^{\gamma_i}},Π(S1​,…,Sm​)=i∈M∑​Qi​Ri​(Si​)=v0​+∑i∈M​Vi​(Si​)γi​∑i∈M​Vi​(Si​)γi​Ri​(Si​)​,

and problem (2) asks for Z∗=max⁡Π(S1,…,Sm)Z^* = \max \Pi(S_1, \dots, S_m)Z∗=maxΠ(S1​,…,Sm​) over all assortments. The nested-by-revenue assortment Nij={1,…,j}N_{ij} = \{1, \dots, j\}Nij​={1,…,j} collects the jjj highest-revenue products of nest iii, with Ni0=∅N_{i0} = \emptysetNi0​=∅ and N+={0,1,…,n}N_+ = \{0, 1, \dots, n\}N+​={0,1,…,n}.

This mission works under the standing assumptions of §3 of the paper: competitive products, γi≤1\gamma_i \le 1γi​≤1, and fully-captured nests, vi0=0v_{i0} = 0vi0​=0, for every nest iii.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 4 (p. 15)

If γi≤1\gamma_i \le 1γi​≤1 and vi0=0v_{i0} = 0vi0​=0 for all i∈Mi \in Mi∈M, there exists an optimal solution (S1∗,…,Sm∗)(S^*_1, \dots, S^*_m)(S1∗​,…,Sm∗​) of problem (2) such that

Si∗=Nij  for some j∈N+,for all i∈M.S^*_i = N_{ij} \ \text{ for some } j \in N_+, \qquad \text{for all } i \in M.Si∗​=Nij​  for some j∈N+​,for all i∈M.

Milestones

  1. The case v0=0v_0 = 0v0​=0 (p. 14). Offering only the single product with the largest revenue max⁡iri1\max_{i} r_{i1}maxi​ri1​ is optimal.
  2. Proposition 2 (p. 14). If S∗S^*S∗ is optimal and Si∗≠∅S^*_i \ne \emptysetSi∗​=∅, then Ri(Si∗)≥Z∗R_i(S^*_i) \ge Z^*Ri​(Si∗​)≥Z∗.
  3. Lemma 3 (p. 14). If Z=Π(S)Z = \Pi(S)Z=Π(S), Ri(Si)≥ZR_i(S_i) \ge ZRi​(Si​)≥Z and some j∈Sij \in S_ij∈Si​ has rij<γiZ+(1−γi)Ri(Si)r_{ij} < \gamma_i Z + (1-\gamma_i) R_i(S_i)rij​<γi​Z+(1−γi​)Ri​(Si​), removing jjj strictly increases the expected revenue.
  4. g(α)≤γg(\alpha) \le \gammag(α)≤γ (p. 15). For 0<γ≤10 < \gamma \le 10<γ≤1 and 0<α<10 < \alpha < 10<α<1: (1−αγ)/(αγ−1−αγ)≤γ(1 - \alpha^{\gamma})/(\alpha^{\gamma-1} - \alpha^{\gamma}) \le \gamma(1−αγ)/(αγ−1−αγ)≤γ.
  5. Revenue threshold (p. 15). Every j∈Si∗j \in S^*_ij∈Si∗​ of an optimal S∗S^*S∗ has rij≥γiZ∗+(1−γi)Ri(Si∗)r_{ij} \ge \gamma_i Z^* + (1-\gamma_i) R_i(S^*_i)rij​≥γi​Z∗+(1−γi​)Ri​(Si∗​).
  6. h(α)≥γh(\alpha) \ge \gammah(α)≥γ (p. 16). For 0<γ≤10 < \gamma \le 10<γ≤1 and 0<α<10 < \alpha < 10<α<1: (1−αγ)/(1−α)≥γ(1 - \alpha^{\gamma})/(1 - \alpha) \ge \gamma(1−αγ)/(1−α)≥γ.
  7. Exchange step (p. 15). If S∗S^*S∗ is optimal, j∈Si∗j \in S^*_ij∈Si∗​, k∉Si∗k \notin S^*_ik∈/Si∗​ and k<jk < jk<j, then adding kkk to Si∗S^*_iSi∗​ keeps the assortment optimal.

A companion item (not a milestone) states the algorithmic consequence at the end of §3: solving the linear program (4) over the candidates {Nij:j∈N+}\{N_{ij} : j \in N_+\}{Nij​:j∈N+​} and choosing in each nest a maximizer of problem (5) gives an optimal solution of (2).

Significance

Theorem 4 reduces problem (2), a search over 2mn2^{mn}2mn assortments, to (n+1)m(n+1)^m(n+1)m nested-by-revenue combinations, and the paper then finds the best one with a linear program with 1+m1 + m1+m variables and 1+m(1+n)1 + m(1+n)1+m(1+n) constraints. It marks the exact boundary of the classical multinomial logit structure inside the nested logit model: the paper's §4 shows that a single nest with γi>1\gamma_i > 1γi​>1 already breaks it, and that the general problem is NP-hard. The structural statement is also the base case for the approximation guarantees of §§5–6, which compare against nested-by-revenue assortments.

The theorem is proved in the paper; to our knowledge it has no machine-checked proof. A formal proof would supply a verified reduction from a combinatorial revenue maximization over the nested logit model to a polynomial-size search, with every boundary case (empty nests, v0=0v_0 = 0v0​=0, ties in revenues) handled explicitly.

Difficulty

The obvious argument copies the multinomial logit proof: take an optimal assortment and swap a low-revenue product for a missing higher-revenue one. Under the nested logit model this exchange changes the nest's attraction Vi(Si)γiV_i(S_i)^{\gamma_i}Vi​(Si​)γi​ non-linearly, so the revenue of the modified assortment is not an affine function of the change, and a simple swap can lower the expected revenue. The argument must instead control how adding or removing one product moves the nest weight relative to the nest revenue, and this is exactly where γi≤1\gamma_i \le 1γi​≤1 enters, through two scalar inequalities in the ratio α\alphaα of nest weights. With γi>1\gamma_i > 1γi​>1 these inequalities fail and so does the theorem.

A second subtlety is ties: several optimal assortments may exist, and only some of them are nested by revenue. The statement asserts existence, not that every optimum has this form.

Formalization scope

All statements live in the namespace NestedLogitVariants.Competitive and share one definition file. Nests form a finite type ι with decidable equality; products are Fin n, indexed 0,…,n−10, \dots, n-10,…,n−1, so NijN_{ij}Nij​ is nbr n j ={k:k<j}= \{k : k < j\}={k:k<j} with j≤nj \le nj≤n, and j=0j = 0j=0 gives ∅\emptyset∅. Powers are Real.rpow, and x/0=0x / 0 = 0x/0=0, which gives Ri(∅)=0R_i(\emptyset) = 0Ri​(∅)=0. Optimality of an assortment means its revenue is at least that of every assortment.

Standing assumptions carried as hypotheses: v0≥0v_0 \ge 0v0​≥0, vi0≥0v_{i0} \ge 0vi0​≥0, revenues ordered within each nest, and §3's γi≤1\gamma_i \le 1γi​≤1 and vi0=0v_{i0} = 0vi0​=0. Three pins are disclosed: vij>0v_{ij} > 0vij​>0 (the paper allows zero-weight padding products, under which Proposition 2 fails), rij≥0r_{ij} \ge 0rij​≥0, and γi>0\gamma_i > 0γi​>0 (the paper's γi≥0\gamma_i \ge 0γi​≥0; its convention Vi(∅)γi=0V_i(\emptyset)^{\gamma_i} = 0Vi​(∅)γi​=0 fails at γi=0\gamma_i = 0γi​=0). The section's "without loss of generality v0>0v_0 > 0v0​>0" is a hypothesis of Proposition 2, Lemma 3, the threshold, the exchange step and the LP item; the goal itself only assumes v0≥0v_0 \ge 0v0​≥0, and the case v0=0v_0 = 0v0​=0 is milestone 1. The two scalar inequalities are stated as inequalities, not as monotonicity claims.

The goal is not trivialized by any hypothesis: it assumes none of the milestones, and stating "some nested-by-revenue assortment exists" (always true) or "every optimal assortment is nested by revenue" (false under ties) would be a different theorem.

Needed infrastructure is light: finite sums, real powers, and concavity of x↦xγx \mapsto x^{\gamma}x↦xγ for γ≤1\gamma \le 1γ≤1. The scalar lemmas are reusable for other nested logit results. Proofs of any milestone are welcome independently.

Selected references

  • J. M. Davis, G. Gallego, H. Topaloglu, Assortment optimization under variants of the nested logit model, Operations Research 62(2), 250–273, 2014. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.2014.1256 (cited from the authors' revised manuscript of June 18, 2013)
  • K. Talluri, G. van Ryzin, Revenue management under a general discrete choice model of consumer behavior, Management Science 50(1), 15–33, 2004. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.1030.0147
  • D. McFadden, Modelling the choice of residential location, in A. Karlqvist et al. (eds.), Spatial Interaction Theory and Planning Models, North-Holland, 75–96, 1978.
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Dynamic ProgrammingMarkov ChainOperations Research·Captain: mikedeng1

Discrete-Time Controlled Markov Processes with Average Cost Criterion: A Survey 1: Uniformly Bounded Differential Discounted Values Give a Bounded Solution of the Average Cost Optimality EquationResearch Paper

Motivation

Many control problems in queueing, inventory and communication systems run indefinitely, and the quantity of interest is the long-run cost per unit time rather than a discounted total. The average cost criterion is harder to analyse than the discounted one: the discounted dynamic programming operator is a contraction, while the average cost problem has no contraction, and on an infinite state space its behaviour depends on the recurrence structure of the controlled chain. The survey of Arapostathis, Borkar, Fernández-Gaucherand, Ghosh and Marcus (SIAM J. Control Optim. 31 (1993)) organises the theory around the average cost optimality equation (ACOE) and the conditions under which it has a solution.

Timeline (as recorded in the survey's §3 and §5). Derman studied the ACOE and characterized optimal stationary policies by its solutions (Derman, On sequential decisions and Markov chains, Management Sci. 1962; Denumerable state Markovian decision processes — average cost criterion, Ann. Math. Statist. 1966). Taylor introduced a vanishing discount argument for a replacement problem (Ann. Math. Statist. 1965). Ross extended it to general countable models, showing that uniformly bounded differential discounted value functions yield a bounded solution of the ACOE (Ann. Math. Statist. 1968, two papers; Introduction to Stochastic Dynamic Programming, 1983). Sennott replaced the uniform bound by one-sided bounds and obtained the average cost optimality inequality (Oper. Res. 1989). The survey presents Ross's result as Theorem 5.2, following the 1983 book; this mission formalizes it.

Setting

A controlled Markov process on the countable state space S={0,1,2,… }S=\{0,1,2,\dots\}S={0,1,2,…} consists of a metric space A\mathbf AA of actions; for each state iii a nonempty compact set U(i)⊆AU(i)\subseteq\mathbf AU(i)⊆A of admissible actions; a cost c(i,a)≥0c(i,a)\ge0c(i,a)≥0; and transition probabilities P(j∣i,a)P(j\mid i,a)P(j∣i,a). For fixed i,ji,ji,j, the maps a↦c(i,a)a\mapsto c(i,a)a↦c(i,a) and a↦P(j∣i,a)a\mapsto P(j\mid i,a)a↦P(j∣i,a) are continuous on U(i)U(i)U(i).

An admissible policy π\piπ chooses, at each time ttt, a probability distribution on U(Xt)U(X_t)U(Xt​) that may depend on the whole past (X0,A0,…,Xt)(X_0,A_0,\dots,X_t)(X0​,A0​,…,Xt​). The class of all of them is Π\PiΠ, and ΠSD\Pi_{SD}ΠSD​ is the class of stationary deterministic policies, maps fff with f(i)∈U(i)f(i)\in U(i)f(i)∈U(i). Each initial state iii and policy π\piπ define a law PiπP^\pi_iPiπ​ of the trajectory, with expectation EiπE^\pi_iEiπ​. For a discount factor 0<β<10<\beta<10<β<1,

Jβ(i,π)=Eiπ∑t=0∞βtc(Xt,At),J(i,π)=lim sup⁡N→∞1NEiπ∑t=0N−1c(Xt,At),J_\beta(i,\pi)=E^\pi_i\sum_{t=0}^\infty\beta^tc(X_t,A_t),\qquad J(i,\pi)=\limsup_{N\to\infty}\frac1N E^\pi_i\sum_{t=0}^{N-1}c(X_t,A_t),Jβ​(i,π)=Eiπ​t=0∑∞​βtc(Xt​,At​),J(i,π)=N→∞limsup​N1​Eiπ​t=0∑N−1​c(Xt​,At​),

and Jβ∗(i)=inf⁡π∈ΠJβ(i,π)J^*_\beta(i)=\inf_{\pi\in\Pi}J_\beta(i,\pi)Jβ∗​(i)=infπ∈Π​Jβ​(i,π), J∗(i)=inf⁡π∈ΠJ(i,π)J^*(i)=\inf_{\pi\in\Pi}J(i,\pi)J∗(i)=infπ∈Π​J(i,π). The differential discounted value function is hβ(i)=Jβ∗(i)−Jβ∗(0)h_\beta(i)=J^*_\beta(i)-J^*_\beta(0)hβ​(i)=Jβ∗​(i)−Jβ∗​(0). A pair (ρ,h)(\rho,h)(ρ,h), ρ∈R\rho\in\mathbb Rρ∈R, h:S→Rh:S\to\mathbb Rh:S→R, solves the ACOE if

ρ+h(i)=min⁡a∈U(i){c(i,a)+∑j∈SP(j∣i,a)h(j)},i∈S.(5.1)\rho+h(i)=\min_{a\in U(i)}\Big\{c(i,a)+\sum_{j\in S}P(j\mid i,a)h(j)\Big\},\qquad i\in S.\tag{5.1}ρ+h(i)=a∈U(i)min​{c(i,a)+j∈S∑​P(j∣i,a)h(j)},i∈S.(5.1)

In the Lean development these objects are CMP, Policy, StationaryPolicy, pathMeasure, discCost, avgCost, discValue (Jβ∗J^*_\betaJβ∗​), optAvg (J∗J^*J∗), hRel (hβh_\betahβ​) and ACOE.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 5.2 (p. 301)

Assume Jβ∗(i)<∞J^*_\beta(i)<\inftyJβ∗​(i)<∞ for all β∈(0,1)\beta\in(0,1)β∈(0,1) and i∈Si\in Si∈S, and that there is K>0K>0K>0 with ∣hβ(i)∣≤K|h_\beta(i)|\le K∣hβ​(i)∣≤K for all such β\betaβ and iii. Then there are ρ∈R\rho\in\mathbb Rρ∈R, a bounded h:S→Rh:S\to\mathbb Rh:S→R and a sequence βn∈(0,1)\beta_n\in(0,1)βn​∈(0,1), βn→1\beta_n\to1βn​→1, with

(ρ,h) solves (5.1),h(i)=lim⁡n→∞hβn(i),lim⁡β↑1(1−β)Jβ∗(i)=ρ(i∈S).(\rho,h)\text{ solves (5.1)},\qquad h(i)=\lim_{n\to\infty}h_{\beta_n}(i),\qquad \lim_{\beta\uparrow1}(1-\beta)J^*_\beta(i)=\rho\qquad(i\in S).(ρ,h) solves (5.1),h(i)=n→∞lim​hβn​​(i),β↑1lim​(1−β)Jβ∗​(i)=ρ(i∈S).

The goal does not assert that ρ\rhoρ is the optimal average cost; that follows from Theorem 5.1 and Remark 5.1(a), which are milestones.

Milestones

  1. Lemma 2.1 (p. 289): the dynamic programming map T(v)(i)=inf⁡a∈U(i){c(i,a)+∑jP(j∣i,a)v(j)}T(v)(i)=\inf_{a\in U(i)}\{c(i,a)+\sum_jP(j\mid i,a)v(j)\}T(v)(i)=infa∈U(i)​{c(i,a)+∑j​P(j∣i,a)v(j)} satisfies T(v+k)=T(v)+kT(v+k)=T(v)+kT(v+k)=T(v)+k and is monotone.
  2. Theorem 2.1 (i), (iii) (p. 289), in the countable model: Jβ∗=TβJβ∗J^*_\beta=T_\beta J^*_\betaJβ∗​=Tβ​Jβ∗​ and a β\betaβ-discount optimal f∈ΠSDf\in\Pi_{SD}f∈ΠSD​ exists.
  3. Equation (5.6) (p. 301): (1−β)Jβ∗(0)+hβ(i)=min⁡a∈U(i){c(i,a)+β∑jP(j∣i,a)hβ(j)}(1-\beta)J^*_\beta(0)+h_\beta(i)=\min_{a\in U(i)}\{c(i,a)+\beta\sum_jP(j\mid i,a)h_\beta(j)\}(1−β)Jβ∗​(0)+hβ​(i)=mina∈U(i)​{c(i,a)+β∑j​P(j∣i,a)hβ​(j)}.
  4. Theorem 5.1 (p. 299): a solution of (5.1) with lim⁡t1tEiπh(Xt)=0\lim_t\frac1tE^\pi_ih(X_t)=0limt​t1​Eiπ​h(Xt​)=0 gives ρ=J(i,f)=J∗(i)\rho=J(i,f)=J^*(i)ρ=J(i,f)=J∗(i) for a minimizing selector fff; minimizing selectors are average optimal; conversely, an average optimal fff with an irreducible positive recurrent chain is a minimizing selector.
  5. Remark 5.1(a) (p. 300): a bounded solution of (5.1) satisfies the growth condition of Theorem 5.1.

Significance

Theorem 5.2 is the template of the vanishing discount method. Under its hypothesis the average cost problem has a bounded solution of the ACOE, so (through Theorem 5.1) the optimal average cost is a constant ρ\rhoρ independent of the initial state, it is attained by a stationary deterministic policy, and it is the Abelian limit of the scaled discounted values. Recurrence conditions on the controlled chain, such as uniformly bounded mean return times to a fixed state (Theorem 5.3 of the survey), are verified by checking the hypothesis of Theorem 5.2; the later results of §5 refine its conclusion under weaker hypotheses.

The theorem itself is classical. What this mission adds is a machine-checked statement and, eventually, proof, on a model with history-dependent randomized policies, compact action sets and unbounded costs, together with the supporting verification theorem (Theorem 5.1) and the discounted optimality equation. To our knowledge none of these results has been formalized in Lean; Mathlib has the Ionescu-Tulcea construction of the path measure but no controlled Markov processes.

Difficulty

The obvious argument fixes a sequence βn↑1\beta_n\uparrow1βn​↑1, extracts a pointwise convergent subsequence of the bounded functions hβnh_{\beta_n}hβn​​ and of the bounded numbers (1−βn)Jβn∗(0)(1-\beta_n)J^*_{\beta_n}(0)(1−βn​)Jβn​∗​(0), and passes to the limit in (5.6). Two steps resist this. First, the limit of a minimum over U(i)U(i)U(i) is not in general the minimum of the limits: the convergence of a↦∑jP(j∣i,a)hβn(j)a\mapsto\sum_jP(j\mid i,a)h_{\beta_n}(j)a↦∑j​P(j∣i,a)hβn​​(j) must be shown to be uniform on the compact set U(i)U(i)U(i), which requires more than pointwise continuity of each P(j∣i,⋅)P(j\mid i,\cdot)P(j∣i,⋅). Second, the subsequential limit ρ\rhoρ could depend on the subsequence, so part (iii), a limit along all β↑1\beta\uparrow1β↑1, needs an independent identification of ρ\rhoρ, here as the optimal average cost through Theorem 5.1, which in turn needs the comparison with arbitrary history-dependent policies. The discounted optimality equation behind (5.6) also has to be established for unbounded costs, where Jβ∗J^*_\betaJβ∗​ is not the unique fixed point of TβT_\betaTβ​.

Formalization scope

The state space is ℕ; state 0 is the reference state of hβh_\betahβ​. Policies are history-dependent randomized stochastic kernels with the admissibility constraint πt(U(xt)∣ht)=1\pi_t(U(x_t)\mid h_t)=1πt​(U(xt​)∣ht​)=1, and J∗J^*J∗, Jβ∗J^*_\betaJβ∗​ are infima over all of them. Costs are lower Lebesgue integrals with values in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞], built from Mathlib's Kernel.trajMeasure. The following choices make implicit hypotheses explicit:

  • Finiteness of Jβ∗J^*_\betaJβ∗​. The paper's bound ∣hβ∣≤K|h_\beta|\le K∣hβ​∣≤K presupposes finite values; the goal assumes Jβ∗(i)<∞J^*_\beta(i)<\inftyJβ∗​(i)<∞, and (5.6) assumes it for its β\betaβ.
  • Convergent series in the ACOE. A solution of (5.1) requires every series ∑jP(j∣i,a)h(j)\sum_jP(j\mid i,a)h(j)∑j​P(j∣i,a)h(j), a∈U(i)a\in U(i)a∈U(i), to converge, and the minimum to be attained.
  • (5.2) over all policies. The paper prints the growth condition of Theorem 5.1 for π∈ΠSD\pi\in\Pi_{SD}π∈ΠSD​, but its conclusion ρ=J∗(i)\rho=J^*(i)ρ=J∗(i) concerns all policies, and the proof uses the condition for arbitrary π\piπ. It is stated for every π∈Π\pi\in\Piπ∈Π, with integrability of h(Xt)h(X_t)h(Xt​) explicit.
  • Theorem 2.1 is cited without proof in the survey for Borel models; in the countable model its Assumptions 2.2–2.3 follow from the continuity assumptions of §5. Only parts (i) and (iii) are stated.
  • Lemma 2.1 is stated for functions bounded below (on discrete ℕ these are the lower semicontinuous functions bounded below), with convergent series.
  • Irreducible, positive recurrent (converse of Theorem 5.1): every state is reached with positive probability from every state, and every state has finite expected return time.

A formalization in which J∗J^*J∗ is an infimum over stationary policies only, in which the ACOE is an inequality or holds for one fixed action, or in which hβh_\betahβ​ is computed from +∞+\infty+∞ values through a junk conversion, would trivialize the goal; all three are excluded by the definitions above.

A complete development needs the Ionescu-Tulcea path measure for history-dependent policies, the discounted optimality equation for nonnegative unbounded costs, Scheffé-type uniform convergence on compact action sets, and the martingale identity behind Theorem 5.1. The model file is reusable by the other missions of this series and by any countable-state average cost result; proofs of the milestones are welcome independently of the goal.

Selected references

  • A. Arapostathis, V. S. Borkar, E. Fernández-Gaucherand, M. K. Ghosh, S. I. Marcus, Discrete-time controlled Markov processes with average cost criterion: a survey, SIAM J. Control Optim. 31(2) (1993) 282–344. https://doi.org/10.1137/0331018
  • C. Derman, On sequential decisions and Markov chains, Management Sci. 9 (1962) 16–24 (reference [38] of the survey).
  • C. Derman, Denumerable state Markovian decision processes — average cost criterion, Ann. Math. Statist. 37 (1966) 1545–1553 (reference [39]).
  • H. M. Taylor, Markovian sequential replacement processes, Ann. Math. Statist. 36 (1965) 1677–1694 (reference [177]).
  • S. M. Ross, Non-discounted denumerable Markovian decision models, Ann. Math. Statist. 39 (1968) 412–423, and Arbitrary state Markovian decision processes, Ann. Math. Statist. 39 (1968) 2118–2122 (references [147], [148]).
  • S. M. Ross, Introduction to Stochastic Dynamic Programming, Academic Press, New York, 1983 (reference [150]).
  • L. I. Sennott, Average cost optimal stationary policies in infinite state Markov decision processes with unbounded costs, Oper. Res. 37 (1989) 626–633 (reference [156]).
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Linear OptimizationOperations ResearchOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Assortment Optimization under Variants of the Nested Logit Model 1: If the Restricted LP Optimum Scaled by α Is Feasible for the Full LP, Its Assortment Earns Within a Factor α of the Optimal RevenueResearch Paper

Motivation

A retailer that sells products in several categories, channels or stores has to decide which products to offer in each. Customers substitute: a product left out of the assortment sends some of its demand to other products, and some of it away. The nested logit model (McFadden 1974, 1981) is the standard choice model for this situation. It groups products into nests, so that substitution within a nest differs from substitution across nests. Assortment optimization under this model asks which products to offer in each nest so as to maximize expected revenue.

Davis, Gallego and Topaloglu (Oper. Res. 62(2), 2014) split the problem into four cases: dissimilarity parameters at most one or unrestricted, and nests that are fully or only partially captured. The problem is polynomially solvable in the first case and NP-hard in the other three. Every approximation guarantee in the paper for the hard cases (Theorems 7, 10, 11, 12) comes from one general framework, set up in §2: a linear program equivalent to the assortment problem, and Theorem 1, which turns a feasibility certificate for that linear program into a performance guarantee. This mission formalizes that framework.

Setting

There are mmm nests MMM and nnn products N={1,…,n}N = \{1, \dots, n\}N={1,…,n} in each nest. Product jjj of nest iii has revenue rij≥0r_{ij} \ge 0rij​≥0 and preference weight vij>0v_{ij} > 0vij​>0, and the products in each nest are ordered so that ri1≥⋯≥rinr_{i1} \ge \dots \ge r_{in}ri1​≥⋯≥rin​. Nest iii has a no-purchase weight vi0≥0v_{i0} \ge 0vi0​≥0 and a dissimilarity parameter γi>0\gamma_i > 0γi​>0. The weight of choosing no nest at all is v0≥0v_0 \ge 0v0​≥0. If the assortment Si⊆NS_i \subseteq NSi​⊆N is offered in nest iii, write

Vi(Si)=vi0+∑j∈Sivij,Ri(Si)=∑j∈SirijvijVi(Si),Ri(∅)=0.V_i(S_i) = v_{i0} + \sum_{j \in S_i} v_{ij}, \qquad R_i(S_i) = \frac{\sum_{j\in S_i} r_{ij} v_{ij}}{V_i(S_i)}, \quad R_i(\emptyset) = 0 .Vi​(Si​)=vi0​+j∈Si​∑​vij​,Ri​(Si​)=Vi​(Si​)∑j∈Si​​rij​vij​​,Ri​(∅)=0.

A customer picks nest iii with probability Qi=Vi(Si)γi/(v0+∑l∈MVl(Sl)γl)Q_i = V_i(S_i)^{\gamma_i} / (v_0 + \sum_{l\in M} V_l(S_l)^{\gamma_l})Qi​=Vi​(Si​)γi​/(v0​+∑l∈M​Vl​(Sl​)γl​), and then a product of that nest by the multinomial logit model. The expected revenue is

Π(S1,…,Sm)=∑i∈MQi(S1,…,Sm) Ri(Si),\Pi(S_1, \dots, S_m) = \sum_{i \in M} Q_i(S_1, \dots, S_m)\, R_i(S_i),Π(S1​,…,Sm​)=i∈M∑​Qi​(S1​,…,Sm​)Ri​(Si​),

and problem (2) is Z∗=max⁡Si⊆NΠ(S1,…,Sm)Z^* = \max_{S_i \subseteq N} \Pi(S_1, \dots, S_m)Z∗=maxSi​⊆N​Π(S1​,…,Sm​).

The linear program (3) in the variables (x,y1,…,ym)(x, y_1, \dots, y_m)(x,y1​,…,ym​) minimizes xxx subject to

v0x≥∑i∈Myi,yi≥Vi(Si)γi(Ri(Si)−x)∀Si⊆N, i∈M.v_0 x \ge \sum_{i\in M} y_i, \qquad y_i \ge V_i(S_i)^{\gamma_i}\big(R_i(S_i) - x\big) \quad \forall S_i \subseteq N,\ i \in M.v0​x≥i∈M∑​yi​,yi​≥Vi​(Si​)γi​(Ri​(Si​)−x)∀Si​⊆N, i∈M.

Given candidate collections {Ait:t∈Ti}\{A_{it} : t \in \mathcal T_i\}{Ait​:t∈Ti​} of assortments for each nest, the linear program (4) is (3) with the second family of constraints imposed only for SiS_iSi​ in the collection of nest iii.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 1 (p. 13)

Let (x^,y^)(\hat x, \hat y)(x^,y^​) be an optimal solution of (4), and let S^i\hat S_iS^i​ solve max⁡Si∈{Ait}Vi(Si)γi(Ri(Si)−x^)\max_{S_i \in \{A_{it}\}} V_i(S_i)^{\gamma_i}(R_i(S_i) - \hat x)maxSi​∈{Ait​}​Vi​(Si​)γi​(Ri​(Si​)−x^), problem (5), in every nest. If (αx^,βy^)(\alpha \hat x, \beta \hat y)(αx^,βy^​) is feasible for (3) for some α,β\alpha, \betaα,β, then, with Z^=Π(S^1,…,S^m)\hat Z = \Pi(\hat S_1, \dots, \hat S_m)Z^=Π(S^1​,…,S^m​),

αZ^ ≥ Z∗ ≥ Z^.\alpha \hat Z \ \ge\ Z^* \ \ge\ \hat Z .αZ^ ≥ Z∗ ≥ Z^.

The theorem fixes no candidate collection and no value of α\alphaα. Each later section of the paper instantiates it with its own collection and its own factor, so a formal proof applies to all of them.

Milestones (§2, pp. 11–12)

  1. Problem (2) is equivalent to (3): Z∗Z^*Z∗ is the least xxx for which some yyy makes (x,y)(x, y)(x,y) feasible for (3).
  2. At an optimal solution of (4), the first constraint binds at the maximizers S^i\hat S_iS^i​ of (5), and x^=Π(S^1,…,S^m)\hat x = \Pi(\hat S_1, \dots, \hat S_m)x^=Π(S^1​,…,S^m​).
  3. Problem (4) relaxes (3), so x^≤Z∗\hat x \le Z^*x^≤Z∗.

Companions (§7, pp. 29–30)

  • The tighter program (16), which lets each nest's assortment be a fractional vector zi∈[0,1]nz_i \in [0,1]^nzi​∈[0,1]n, has every feasible xxx above Z∗Z^*Z∗.
  • Proposition 13: F^i(x)=max⁡zi∈[0,1]nFi(zi∣x)\hat F_i(x) = \max_{z_i \in [0,1]^n} F_i(z_i \mid x)F^i​(x)=maxzi​∈[0,1]n​Fi​(zi​∣x) is convex, with subgradient −(vi0+∑jvijz^ij(x))γi-(v_{i0} + \sum_j v_{ij}\hat z_{ij}(x))^{\gamma_i}−(vi0​+∑j​vij​z^ij​(x))γi​ at xxx.

Significance

Theorem 1 is the common step behind the paper's four approximation guarantees: the factor ρ\rhoρ or 2κ2\kappa2κ of Theorem 7, the factor 2 of Theorem 10, the factor of Theorem 11, and the δ2γˉ+1\delta^{2\bar\gamma+1}δ2γˉ​+1 of Theorem 12. Each of these reduces to checking that a scaled optimum of a small linear program is feasible for (3). With Theorem 1 formalized, those guarantees reduce to inequalities about candidate collections, which are the subject of the sister missions of this series. The upper bound (16) and Proposition 13 give the instance-specific bound that the paper uses to assess its assortments numerically.

The results are proved in the paper. To our knowledge none of them has a machine-checked proof. The formal work adds two things: the statements below are made exact at the degenerate inputs the prose passes over (an empty assortment, v0=0v_0 = 0v0​=0), and a formal proof certifies the framework once for every later instantiation.

Difficulty

The equivalence of (2) and (3) rests on decomposing a maximum over joint assortments into a sum of per-nest maxima, and on reading the fractional objective Π≤x\Pi \le xΠ≤x as a linear constraint. Both steps need care where a denominator v0+∑iVi(Si)γiv_0 + \sum_i V_i(S_i)^{\gamma_i}v0​+∑i​Vi​(Si​)γi​ can vanish. The binding argument for (4) is a perturbation argument: lowering x^\hat xx^ must keep every constraint satisfiable, which needs a continuity and monotonicity property of the right-hand side in xxx. The obvious one-line reading of Theorem 1, "x^=Z^\hat x = \hat Zx^=Z^ and αx^≥Z∗\alpha\hat x \ge Z^*αx^≥Z∗", is correct only once both of these facts are established with their hypotheses. In particular, it is false when v0=0v_0 = 0v0​=0 (see below). Proposition 13 requires that the supremum over the box be finite, which comes from the boundedness of FiF_iFi​ on [0,1]n[0,1]^n[0,1]n.

Formalization scope

Nests are a finite type ι and products are Fin n, indexed 0,…,n−10, \dots, n-10,…,n−1. An assortment is a finite set of products per nest, and a candidate collection is a set of such finite sets. Powers are real powers, and Lean's x/0=0x / 0 = 0x/0=0 gives Ri(∅)=0R_i(\emptyset) = 0Ri​(∅)=0. Z∗Z^*Z∗ is Π(S∗)\Pi(S^*)Π(S∗) for an arbitrary optimal assortment S∗S^*S∗; no supremum over assortments is taken. "Optimal solution of (4)" means feasible with minimal xxx, and "S^i\hat S_iS^i​ solves (5)" means S^i\hat S_iS^i​ belongs to the collection of nest iii and maximizes the objective of (5) over it at x^\hat xx^.

Standing assumptions and pins. These are v0,vi0≥0v_0, v_{i0} \ge 0v0​,vi0​≥0 and ordered revenues, together with vij>0v_{ij} > 0vij​>0, rij≥0r_{ij} \ge 0rij​≥0 and γi>0\gamma_i > 0γi​>0. The paper allows zero-weight padding products and γi=0\gamma_i = 0γi​=0, but its own conventions fail there. Theorem 1 and the binding milestone add v0>0v_0 > 0v0​>0. The page allows v0=0v_0 = 0v0​=0, but then Theorem 1 is false: take one nest with v10=0v_{10} = 0v10​=0, γ1=1\gamma_1 = 1γ1​=1, r11=v11=1r_{11} = v_{11} = 1r11​=v11​=1 and candidates {∅,{1}}\{\emptyset, \{1\}\}{∅,{1}}. Then x^=1\hat x = 1x^=1 and S^1=∅\hat S_1 = \emptysetS^1​=∅ meet every hypothesis with α=β=1\alpha = \beta = 1α=β=1, yet Z^=0<Z∗=1\hat Z = 0 < Z^* = 1Z^=0<Z∗=1. The equivalence of (2) and (3) and the bound from (16) keep v0≥0v_0 \ge 0v0​≥0, as the page does, and assume at least one nest and one product: with neither and v0=0v_0 = 0v0​=0, every xxx is feasible for (3).

A formalization that assumes the binding equality, the identity x^=Z^\hat x = \hat Zx^=Z^, or the inequality x^≤Z∗\hat x \le Z^*x^≤Z∗ in the goal would trivialize it. Those facts appear only as milestones. Likewise, reading "optimal solution of (4)" as mere feasibility would make the goal false rather than easier.

The development needs only finite sums, real powers and elementary order reasoning. Proposition 13 also needs the boundedness of a continuous function on a box and the convexity of a pointwise supremum of affine functions. Welcome contributions include proofs of the milestones, the goal from them, and reusable lemmas on the per-nest decomposition of maxima, which the sister missions of this series use as well.

Selected references

  • J. M. Davis, G. Gallego, H. Topaloglu, Assortment optimization under variants of the nested logit model, Operations Research 62(2), 2014 (revised manuscript of June 18, 2013, cited here). https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.2014.1256
  • D. McFadden, Econometric models of probabilistic choice, in C. Manski, D. McFadden (eds.), Structural Analysis of Discrete Data with Econometric Applications, MIT Press, 1981. https://eml.berkeley.edu/~mcfadden/discrete.html
  • P. Rusmevichientong, D. Shmoys, H. Topaloglu, Assortment optimization with mixtures of logits, Technical report, Cornell University, 2010. https://people.orie.cornell.edu/huseyin/publications/publications.html
  • M. S. Bazaraa, H. D. Sherali, C. M. Shetty, Nonlinear Programming: Theory and Algorithms, 2nd ed., Wiley, 1993. https://doi.org/10.1002/0471787779
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CombinatoricsOperations ResearchOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Assortment Optimization under Variants of the Nested Logit Model 4: With Dissimilarity Parameters at Most One, the Knapsack-Relaxation and Singleton LP Optimum Scaled by 2 Is Feasible for the Full LPResearch Paper

Motivation

Assortment optimization asks which set of products a firm should offer when customers choose among the offered products according to a discrete choice model; it underlies shelf-space planning in retail and fare-class control in airline revenue management (Talluri and van Ryzin, 2004). Under the nested logit model products are grouped into nests, and a customer first picks a nest and then a product inside it. Davis, Gallego and Topaloglu (Operations Research, 2014; DOI 10.1287/opre.2014.1256) map out how hard this problem is across variants of the model.

When every nest dissimilarity parameter is at most one and a customer who chose a nest always buys there, offering the top-revenue products of each nest is optimal (Theorem 4 of the paper, the subject of an earlier mission of this series). Once a customer may leave a nest without buying — a partially-captured nest — that structure breaks and the problem becomes NP-hard (Theorem 8). This mission targets the paper's response: a small, explicitly constructed family of candidate assortments per nest from which a linear program recovers a solution within a factor of two of optimal.

Setting

There are mmm nests MMM and, in each nest, nnn products N={1,…,n}N = \{1, \dots, n\}N={1,…,n}. Product jjj of nest iii has a revenue rij≥0r_{ij} \ge 0rij​≥0 and a preference weight vij>0v_{ij} > 0vij​>0, with ri1≥⋯≥rinr_{i1} \ge \dots \ge r_{in}ri1​≥⋯≥rin​. Nest iii has a dissimilarity parameter γi>0\gamma_i > 0γi​>0 and a within-nest no-purchase weight vi0≥0v_{i0} \ge 0vi0​≥0; v0≥0v_0 \ge 0v0​≥0 is the weight of choosing no nest. For an assortment Si⊆NS_i \subseteq NSi​⊆N,

Vi(Si)=vi0+∑j∈Sivij,Ri(Si)=∑j∈SirijvijVi(Si),Ri(∅)=0,V_i(S_i) = v_{i0} + \sum_{j \in S_i} v_{ij}, \qquad R_i(S_i) = \frac{\sum_{j \in S_i} r_{ij} v_{ij}}{V_i(S_i)},\quad R_i(\emptyset)=0,Vi​(Si​)=vi0​+j∈Si​∑​vij​,Ri​(Si​)=Vi​(Si​)∑j∈Si​​rij​vij​​,Ri​(∅)=0,

and the expected revenue of (S1,…,Sm)(S_1, \dots, S_m)(S1​,…,Sm​) is Π=∑iVi(Si)γiRi(Si)/(v0+∑iVi(Si)γi)\Pi = \sum_i V_i(S_i)^{\gamma_i} R_i(S_i) / (v_0 + \sum_i V_i(S_i)^{\gamma_i})Π=∑i​Vi​(Si​)γi​Ri​(Si​)/(v0​+∑i​Vi​(Si​)γi​). The optimal expected revenue Z∗Z^*Z∗ is the optimal value of the linear program

(3)min⁡ xs.t.v0x≥∑i∈Myi,yi≥Vi(Si)γi(Ri(Si)−x)  ∀Si⊆N, i∈M,\text{(3)}\quad \min\ x \quad\text{s.t.}\quad v_0 x \ge \sum_{i \in M} y_i,\qquad y_i \ge V_i(S_i)^{\gamma_i}\big(R_i(S_i) - x\big)\ \ \forall S_i \subseteq N,\ i \in M,(3)min xs.t.v0​x≥i∈M∑​yi​,yi​≥Vi​(Si​)γi​(Ri​(Si​)−x)  ∀Si​⊆N, i∈M,

and problem (4) is the same program with the second family of constraints imposed only for a chosen collection of candidate assortments in each nest.

Throughout, γi≤1\gamma_i \le 1γi​≤1 for every nest and the vi0v_{i0}vi0​ are arbitrary. For a capacity ϵi≥0\epsilon_i \ge 0ϵi​≥0, the knapsack value Ki(ϵi)K_i(\epsilon_i)Ki​(ϵi​) is the largest ∑j∈Srijvij\sum_{j \in S} r_{ij} v_{ij}∑j∈S​rij​vij​ over assortments SSS with ∑j∈Svij≤ϵi\sum_{j \in S} v_{ij} \le \epsilon_i∑j∈S​vij​≤ϵi​ (display (9)). Its continuous relaxation (11) allows fractional zij∈[0,1(vij≤ϵi)]z_{ij} \in [0, \mathbf 1(v_{ij} \le \epsilon_i)]zij​∈[0,1(vij​≤ϵi​)] under the same capacity. The greedy solution z^i(ϵi)\hat z_i(\epsilon_i)z^i​(ϵi​) of (11) fills the capacity with the products of weight at most ϵi\epsilon_iϵi​ in revenue order, each fully while it fits and the next one fractionally, and

S^i(ϵi)={j∈N:z^ij(ϵi)=1}.\hat S_i(\epsilon_i) = \{ j \in N : \hat z_{ij}(\epsilon_i) = 1 \}.S^i​(ϵi​)={j∈N:z^ij​(ϵi​)=1}.

Problem (10) replaces the per-assortment constraints of (3) by yi≥max⁡ϵi≥0(vi0+ϵi)γi[Ki(ϵi)/(vi0+ϵi)−x]y_i \ge \max_{\epsilon_i \ge 0} (v_{i0}+\epsilon_i)^{\gamma_i}[K_i(\epsilon_i)/(v_{i0}+\epsilon_i) - x]yi​≥maxϵi​≥0​(vi0​+ϵi​)γi​[Ki​(ϵi​)/(vi0​+ϵi​)−x].

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 10 (p. 24)

Let (x^,y^)(\hat x, \hat y)(x^,y^​) be an optimal solution of (4) with candidate collections {S^i(ϵi):ϵi∈[0,∞]}∪{{j}:j∈N}\{\hat S_i(\epsilon_i) : \epsilon_i \in [0,\infty]\} \cup \{\{j\} : j \in N\}{S^i​(ϵi​):ϵi​∈[0,∞]}∪{{j}:j∈N}. Then

(2x^, 2y^)  is feasible for (3).(2\hat x,\ 2\hat y) \ \text{ is feasible for (3).}(2x^, 2y^​)  is feasible for (3).

Milestones

  1. Per-nest identity (proof of Lemma 9, p. 23). For x≥0x \ge 0x≥0, max⁡SiVi(Si)γi(Ri(Si)−x)=max⁡ϵi≥0(vi0+ϵi)γi[Ki(ϵi)/(vi0+ϵi)−x]\max_{S_i} V_i(S_i)^{\gamma_i}(R_i(S_i) - x) = \max_{\epsilon_i \ge 0}(v_{i0}+\epsilon_i)^{\gamma_i}[K_i(\epsilon_i)/(v_{i0}+\epsilon_i) - x]maxSi​​Vi​(Si​)γi​(Ri​(Si​)−x)=maxϵi​≥0​(vi0​+ϵi​)γi​[Ki​(ϵi​)/(vi0​+ϵi​)−x].
  2. Lemma 9 (p. 23). Problems (3) and (10) have the same optimal solutions.
  3. Relaxation (p. 23). Every feasible point of (9) is feasible for (11), so K^i(ϵi)≥Ki(ϵi)\hat K_i(\epsilon_i) \ge K_i(\epsilon_i)K^i​(ϵi​)≥Ki​(ϵi​).
  4. Greedy solution (pp. 23–24). z^i(ϵi)\hat z_i(\epsilon_i)z^i​(ϵi​) is optimal for (11) and has at most one fractional component.
  5. Sign (A.3, p. 45). x^≥0\hat x \ge 0x^≥0.
  6. Inequalities (28) and (29) (A.3, pp. 45–46). In both cases — z^i(ϵ)\hat z_i(\epsilon)z^i​(ϵ) with and without a fractional component — 2y^i≥(vi0+ϵ)γi[Ki(ϵ)/(vi0+ϵ)−2x^]2\hat y_i \ge (v_{i0}+\epsilon)^{\gamma_i}[K_i(\epsilon)/(v_{i0}+\epsilon) - 2\hat x]2y^​i​≥(vi0​+ϵ)γi​[Ki​(ϵ)/(vi0​+ϵ)−2x^].

Two further statements accompany the goal: the factor-two revenue guarantee obtained from Theorem 10 and Theorem 1 of the paper, and the fact that every S^i(ϵi)\hat S_i(\epsilon_i)S^i​(ϵi​) is one of the at most 1+n21 + n^21+n2 assortments NijkN^k_{ij}Nijk​, the first jjj products by revenue among the kkk lightest.

Significance

Theorem 10 turns an NP-hard assortment problem into a linear program with 1+m1 + m1+m variables and 1+m(1+n+n2)1 + m(1 + n + n^2)1+m(1+n+n2) constraints whose solution is within a factor of two of optimal. The construction is explicit: the candidates are defined by a greedy rule, not by an optimization oracle. The same template, a restricted linear program whose doubled optimum is feasible for the full one, is reused in §6 of the paper for the most general instances, and Lemma 9's knapsack reformulation is the link to the classical approximation theory of knapsack problems (Williamson and Shmoys, 2011).

The theorem is proved in the paper. No machine-checked proof of it, of Lemma 9, or of greedy optimality for the continuous knapsack with an eligibility bound exists on the platform. Formalizing it yields a checked factor-two guarantee and a reusable fractional-knapsack development.

Difficulty

The obvious argument would compare the restricted program (4) with (3) constraint by constraint. That fails: (3) has one constraint per subset of products, and most subsets are not candidates. The comparison has to pass through the knapsack reformulation (10), which requires showing that a maximum over all subsets equals a maximum over a one-dimensional capacity parameter, using γi≤1\gamma_i \le 1γi​≤1 and x≥0x \ge 0x≥0 in an essential way. The second obstacle is that the greedy assortment S^i(ϵi)\hat S_i(\epsilon_i)S^i​(ϵi​) keeps only the fully taken products, so its value can fall short of the continuous knapsack value, and no single candidate assortment need attain the knapsack bound. With dissimilarity parameters above one the monotonicity behind the reformulation is lost, and §6 of the paper needs a different factor.

Formalization scope

Products are Fin n (indices 0,…,n−10, \dots, n-10,…,n−1), nests a finite type, and every quantity is real. Powers are Real.rpow; x/0=0x/0 = 0x/0=0, which gives Ri(∅)=0R_i(\emptyset) = 0Ri​(∅)=0. An optimal solution of a linear program is a feasible pair whose xxx is minimal among feasible pairs. The constraint "yi≥max⁡ϵi≥0(… )y_i \ge \max_{\epsilon_i \ge 0}(\dots)yi​≥maxϵi​≥0​(…)" of (10) is stated in constraint form, for every ϵi≥0\epsilon_i \ge 0ϵi​≥0, so no real supremum is taken. Ki(ϵ)K_i(\epsilon)Ki​(ϵ) is defined for ϵ≥0\epsilon \ge 0ϵ≥0 only; its placeholder value for ϵ<0\epsilon < 0ϵ<0 is never used. Ties in revenue (and, for NijkN^k_{ij}Nijk​, in weight) are broken by index. The candidate collection is taken over real ϵi≥0\epsilon_i \ge 0ϵi​≥0; ϵi=∞\epsilon_i = \inftyϵi​=∞ adds nothing, since every capacity of at least ∑jvij\sum_j v_{ij}∑j​vij​ already gives S^i=N\hat S_i = NS^i​=N.

Standing assumptions and added hypotheses: γi≤1\gamma_i \le 1γi​≤1 for every nest (the section's assumption) on the goal and on every model milestone; the pins vij>0v_{ij} > 0vij​>0, rij≥0r_{ij} \ge 0rij​≥0, γi>0\gamma_i > 0γi​>0 and the revenue ordering, shared by the series; n≥1n \ge 1n≥1 on Lemma 9, on x^≥0\hat x \ge 0x^≥0 and on (28)/(29), the paper's nonempty NNN; and v0>0v_0 > 0v0​>0 on the factor-two revenue guarantee, where Theorem 1 of the paper fails without it.

The greedy assortments S^i(ϵi)\hat S_i(\epsilon_i)S^i​(ϵi​) are defined explicitly. Quantifying over arbitrary optimal solutions of (11) instead would change the candidate collection and is not the paper's theorem. The goal states feasibility for the full program (3) and does not mention knapsack values, the greedy solution or the case split. A formalization that weakens the conclusion to feasibility for (10), or that drops the singletons from the candidate collection, is not a solution.

Needed infrastructure: fractional knapsack optimality of the greedy rule with an eligibility bound, monotonicity of t↦tγt \mapsto t^{\gamma}t↦tγ and t↦tγ−1t \mapsto t^{\gamma - 1}t↦tγ−1 for γ≤1\gamma \le 1γ≤1, and finite maximization over subsets. The fractional-knapsack lemmas are reusable beyond this mission. Proofs of any milestone, and alternative decompositions of the goal, are welcome.

Selected references

  • J. M. Davis, G. Gallego, H. Topaloglu, Assortment Optimization under Variants of the Nested Logit Model, Operations Research 62(2), 2014 (revised manuscript of June 18, 2013, cited here). DOI 10.1287/opre.2014.1256
  • K. T. Talluri, G. J. van Ryzin, Revenue Management Under a General Discrete Choice Model of Consumer Behavior, Management Science 50(1), 15–33, 2004. DOI 10.1287/mnsc.1030.0147
  • D. P. Williamson, D. B. Shmoys, The Design of Approximation Algorithms, Cambridge University Press, 2011. DOI 10.1017/CBO9780511921735
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Dynamic ProgrammingOperations ResearchProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

Uniformly Bounded Regret in the Multi-Secretary Problem 1: The Budget-Ratio Policy Has Regret at Most a₁M(ε), Uniformly in the Number of Candidates n and the Budget kResearch Paper

Motivation

The multi-secretary problem is the simplest model of capacity allocation under uncertainty: a decision maker sees nnn candidates one at a time and may hire at most kkk of them, with every decision final. The same structure underlies single-resource revenue management (accepting or rejecting booking requests against a fixed inventory; see Talluri and van Ryzin, The Theory and Practice of Revenue Management, 2004), online knapsack and packing problems, and dynamic assortment of limited stock.

The performance of an online policy is measured against the offline benchmark, the value of the best kkk candidates chosen with full hindsight. The gap between the two is the regret.

  • In the version where the values arrive as a uniform random permutation, Kleinberg (2005) proved that the minimal regret is of order k\sqrt kk​ and gave an algorithm attaining it (as summarized in Remark 1 of the paper below).
  • Arlotto and Gurvich (arXiv:1710.07719, 2017; Stochastic Systems 2019) showed that when the values have a finite support, the optimal online policy, and an explicit simple policy, have regret bounded by a constant that does not depend on nnn or kkk. The constant depends only on the smallest probability mass.

This mission formalizes that upper bound.

Setting

Abilities take values in a finite set A={am<am−1<⋯<a1}\mathcal A=\{a_m<a_{m-1}<\dots<a_1\}A={am​<am−1​<⋯<a1​} of distinct positive reals, with probabilities fj=P(X=aj)>0f_j=\mathbb P(X=a_j)>0fj​=P(X=aj​)>0, ∑jfj=1\sum_j f_j=1∑j​fj​=1. Write Fˉ(aj)=f1+⋯+fj−1\bar F(a_j)=f_1+\dots+f_{j-1}Fˉ(aj​)=f1​+⋯+fj−1​ for the mass strictly above aja_jaj​, and

ϵ=12min⁡{fm,…,f1}.\epsilon=\tfrac12\min\{f_m,\dots,f_1\}.ϵ=21​min{fm​,…,f1​}.

The abilities X1,…,XnX_1,\dots,X_nX1​,…,Xn​ are independent with this distribution. Budget pairs range over the triangle T={(n,k):0≤k≤n}\mathcal T=\{(n,k):0\le k\le n\}T={(n,k):0≤k≤n}.

  • Offline value. Voff∗(n,k)=E[max⁡{∑tXtσt:σ∈{0,1}n, ∑tσt≤k}]V^*_{\mathrm{off}}(n,k)=\mathbb E\big[\max\{\sum_t X_t\sigma_t:\sigma\in\{0,1\}^n,\ \sum_t\sigma_t\le k\}\big]Voff∗​(n,k)=E[max{∑t​Xt​σt​:σ∈{0,1}n, ∑t​σt​≤k}].
  • Online policies. A policy decides σt∈{0,1}\sigma_t\in\{0,1\}σt​∈{0,1} using only X1,…,XtX_1,\dots,X_tX1​,…,Xt​ and must select at most kkk candidates on every realization. Π(n,k)\Pi(n,k)Π(n,k) is the set of such policies, Vonπ(n,k)=E[∑tXtσtπ]V^\pi_{\mathrm{on}}(n,k)=\mathbb E[\sum_t X_t\sigma^\pi_t]Vonπ​(n,k)=E[∑t​Xt​σtπ​], and Von∗(n,k)=max⁡π∈Π(n,k)Vonπ(n,k)V^*_{\mathrm{on}}(n,k)=\max_{\pi\in\Pi(n,k)}V^\pi_{\mathrm{on}}(n,k)Von∗​(n,k)=maxπ∈Π(n,k)​Vonπ​(n,k).
  • Counts. ZjrZ^r_jZjr​ is the number of aja_jaj​-candidates among the first rrr. The offline sort selects Sjr=min⁡{Zjr,(k−∑i<jZir)+}\mathfrak S^r_j=\min\{Z^r_j,(k-\sum_{i<j}Z^r_i)_+\}Sjr​=min{Zjr​,(k−∑i<j​Zir​)+​} of them. Sjπ,rS^{\pi,r}_jSjπ,r​ counts those selected by π\piπ.
  • Action index. j0(n,k)j_0(n,k)j0​(n,k) is the largest jjj with Fˉ(aj)+12fj≤k/n\bar F(a_j)+\tfrac12f_j\le k/nFˉ(aj​)+21​fj​≤k/n, or 111 if there is none.
  • Thresholds. T1=0T_1=0T1​=0, Tj=Fˉ(aj)+12fjT_j=\bar F(a_j)+\tfrac12 f_jTj​=Fˉ(aj​)+21​fj​ for 2≤j≤m2\le j\le m2≤j≤m, and Tm+1=+∞T_{m+1}=+\inftyTm+1​=+∞.
  • Budget-Ratio (BR) policy. With remaining budget KtK_tKt​ (K0=kK_0=kK0​=k), at time t+1t+1t+1 the policy finds jjj with Tj≤Kt/(n−t)<Tj+1T_j\le K_t/(n-t)<T_{j+1}Tj​≤Kt​/(n−t)<Tj+1​. It selects Xt+1X_{t+1}Xt+1​ if and only if Kt>0K_t>0Kt​>0 and Xt+1≥ajX_{t+1}\ge a_jXt+1​≥aj​.
  • Stopping times. For 0<δ<ϵ0<\delta<\epsilon0<δ<ϵ, τ0\tau_0τ0​ is the first time the budget ratio comes within δ/2\delta/2δ/2 of a threshold, or the cut-off n−2δ−1−1n-2\delta^{-1}-1n−2δ−1−1. The time τ\tauτ of (20) is the first later time the ratio leaves the δ\deltaδ-band around that threshold, or the cut-off.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 1 (first display)

For every ϵ>0\epsilon>0ϵ>0 there is a constant MMM such that for every instance with 12min⁡jfj=ϵ\tfrac12\min_jf_j=\epsilon21​minj​fj​=ϵ and all (n,k)∈T(n,k)\in\mathcal T(n,k)∈T, br∈Π(n,k)\mathrm{br}\in\Pi(n,k)br∈Π(n,k) and

Voff∗(n,k)−Von∗(n,k)≤Voff∗(n,k)−Vonbr(n,k)≤a1M.V^*_{\mathrm{off}}(n,k)-V^*_{\mathrm{on}}(n,k)\le V^*_{\mathrm{off}}(n,k)-V^{\mathrm{br}}_{\mathrm{on}}(n,k)\le a_1M.Voff∗​(n,k)−Von∗​(n,k)≤Voff∗​(n,k)−Vonbr​(n,k)≤a1​M.

No constant is fixed. Only the shape is asserted: a bound uniform in nnn, kkk, the support size and the distribution, given ϵ\epsilonϵ.

Milestones, in the order the proof uses them

  • The benchmark inequality Vonπ≤Voff∗V^\pi_{\mathrm{on}}\le V^*_{\mathrm{off}}Vonπ​≤Voff∗​ (p. 5).
  • The sort identity Voff∗=∑jajE[Sjn]V^*_{\mathrm{off}}=\sum_ja_j\mathbb E[\mathfrak S^n_j]Voff∗​=∑j​aj​E[Sjn​] (4).
  • The binomial overshoot bound E[(B−k)+]≤1/(4ε)\mathbb E[(B-k)_+]\le1/(4\varepsilon)E[(B−k)+​]≤1/(4ε) (Lemma 2).
  • The offline decomposition Voff∗=∑i<jaiE[Zin]+ajE[Sjn]+aj+1E[Sj+1n]±a1/(4ϵ)V^*_{\mathrm{off}}=\sum_{i<j}a_i\mathbb E[Z^n_i]+a_j\mathbb E[\mathfrak S^n_j]+a_{j+1}\mathbb E[\mathfrak S^n_{j+1}]\pm a_1/(4\epsilon)Voff∗​=∑i<j​ai​E[Zin​]+aj​E[Sjn​]+aj+1​E[Sj+1n​]±a1​/(4ϵ) (Proposition 1).
  • The sufficient condition: four properties (i)–(iv) of a policy up to a stopping time imply regret at most 3a1M+a1/(4ϵ)3a_1M+a_1/(4\epsilon)3a1​M+a1​/(4ϵ) (Proposition 2).
  • The identification j0(n,k)=jj_0(n,k)=jj0​(n,k)=j on k/n∈[Tj,Tj+1)k/n\in[T_j,T_{j+1})k/n∈[Tj​,Tj+1​) (p. 17).
  • The BR selection probability and the jump bound ∣Kt/(n−t)−Kt+1/(n−t−1)∣≤δ/2|K_t/(n-t)-K_{t+1}/(n-t-1)|\le\delta/2∣Kt​/(n−t)−Kt+1​/(n−t−1)∣≤δ/2 (p. 13).
  • E[τ]≥n−M\mathbb E[\tau]\ge n-ME[τ]≥n−M (Theorem 2).
  • BR and τ\tauτ satisfy (i)–(iv) (Corollary 1).
  • The state-space reduction vℓ(w,κ)=w+gℓ(κ)v_\ell(w,\kappa)=w+g_\ell(\kappa)vℓ​(w,κ)=w+gℓ​(κ) of the Bellman recursion (Proposition 5).

Significance

The result. Bounded regret means that the loss from not knowing the future is a fixed number of candidates' worth of value, however long the horizon and however large the budget. The bound holds uniformly over all distributions with the same ϵ\epsilonϵ. It is attained by an explicit, adaptive, non-randomized rule that compares one ratio with mmm fixed thresholds. The companion result of the same paper shows that every non-adaptive policy suffers regret of order n\sqrt nn​ in the interior regime. Together they quantify the value of adapting to the remaining budget. Lemma 1 of the paper shows the dependence on ϵ\epsilonϵ cannot be removed.

Formalizing it. The result is proved in the paper, but no part of it is machine-checked; there is no multi-secretary or bounded-regret development on the platform. The mission produces several pieces of machinery: a reusable finite model of sequential selection with online policies and the offline benchmark; an explicit online policy with its stopping-time analysis; and a binomial overshoot bound usable elsewhere. The constant MMM is not made explicit in the paper. A formal proof would give one, and sharper constants are welcome.

Difficulty

The offline decomposition and the sufficient condition are bookkeeping with counts and one concentration bound. The hard step is Theorem 2: showing that the budget ratio Kt/(n−t)K_t/(n-t)Kt​/(n−t) stays within δ\deltaδ of its attracting threshold until a bounded expected number of periods before the end. Near the horizon a single selection moves the ratio by about 1/(n−t)1/(n-t)1/(n−t), so the band becomes easy to leave. Equivalently, the target δ(n−τ0−u)\delta(n-\tau_0-u)δ(n−τ0​−u) that the deviation process must exceed shrinks to zero. A standard martingale or drift argument with a fixed band therefore does not give a bound uniform in nnn. The paper combines the mean-reverting drift of the deviation process with an exponential tail bound (its Proposition 4) and a Lyapunov argument. A second subtlety is uniformity: every constant must depend on ϵ\epsilonϵ (and δ\deltaδ) only, never on mmm, the aja_jaj​, nnn or kkk.

Formalization scope

The source is arXiv:1710.07719v2; its printed page numbers equal the PDF page numbers.

Representation.

  • Ability levels are Fin m, with index 0 the largest value a1a_1a1​; Lean index iii is the paper's i+1i+1i+1.
  • Each instance carries aaa strictly decreasing and positive, fff positive with ∑f=1\sum f=1∑f=1.
  • Expectations are finite sums over sequences x:Fin n→Fin mx:\mathrm{Fin}\,n\to\mathrm{Fin}\,mx:Finn→Finm weighted by ∏tf(xt)\prod_tf(x_t)∏t​f(xt​), so no measure theory is needed.
  • Policies are deterministic selection rules σ(x,t)\sigma(x,t)σ(x,t) that are non-anticipating and feasible. Von∗V^*_{\mathrm{on}}Von∗​ is a maximum over this finite set. The paper allows randomized policies; for this finite problem the optimal values coincide (p. 39). In any case, restricting to deterministic policies can only lower Von∗V^*_{\mathrm{on}}Von∗​ and so does not weaken the goal.
  • Voff∗V^*_{\mathrm{off}}Voff∗​ is defined as an expected maximum over selection vectors, not by the sort formula. The sort formula is a milestone.

Quantifiers. The constant MMM in the goal is chosen after ϵ\epsilonϵ and before mmm, the instance, nnn and kkk. A statement with MMM chosen after the instance, or after nnn, is trivial (regret ≤a1n\le a_1n≤a1​n) and is excluded.

Corrections to the printed text, disclosed in the items.

  1. In Theorem 2 and Corollary 1, MMM depends on the auxiliary δ∈(0,ϵ)\delta\in(0,\epsilon)δ∈(0,ϵ) as well, because τ\tauτ does. δ\deltaδ is quantified before MMM. The goal itself is δ\deltaδ-free.
  2. Lemma 2's conditions p+ε≤k/np+\varepsilon\le k/np+ε≤k/n, k/n≤p−εk/n\le p-\varepsilonk/n≤p−ε are stated as (p+ε)n≤k(p+\varepsilon)n\le k(p+ε)n≤k, k≤(p−ε)nk\le(p-\varepsilon)nk≤(p−ε)n, the form used in its proof. This avoids a false case at n=0n=0n=0.
  3. The BR rule is applied at every time t+1∈{1,…,n}t+1\in\{1,\dots,n\}t+1∈{1,…,n}; p. 11 writes {1,…,n−1}\{1,\dots,n-1\}{1,…,n−1}.
  4. τ\tauτ is capped at nnn, which matters only when n=0n=0n=0.
  5. In Proposition 5 the recursions are imposed for κ≥1\kappa\ge1κ≥1 (boundary conditions at κ=0\kappa=0κ=0), and only identity (49) is stated.

Infrastructure. The model definitions (instance, offline value, online policies, counts, thresholds, action index) and the binomial overshoot lemma are reusable for other finite-support online selection and revenue-management results. All of the following are welcome:

  • proofs of individual milestones;
  • an explicit constant;
  • a formal derivation of Von∗(n,k)=vn(0,k)V^*_{\mathrm{on}}(n,k)=v_n(0,k)Von∗​(n,k)=vn​(0,k) connecting Proposition 5 to Von∗V^*_{\mathrm{on}}Von∗​.

Selected references

  • A. Arlotto, I. Gurvich, Uniformly Bounded Regret in the Multi-Secretary Problem, arXiv:1710.07719v2, 2018; Stochastic Systems 9(3), 2019. https://arxiv.org/abs/1710.07719
  • R. Kleinberg, A multiple-choice secretary algorithm with applications to online auctions, SODA 2005. https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.5555/1070432.1070519
  • K. T. Talluri, G. J. van Ryzin, The Theory and Practice of Revenue Management, Springer, 2004. https://doi.org/10.1007/b139000
  • D. P. Bertsekas, S. E. Shreve, Stochastic Optimal Control: The Discrete-Time Case, Academic Press, 1978.
  • S. Boucheron, G. Lugosi, P. Massart, Concentration Inequalities, Oxford University Press, 2013. https://doi.org/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199535255.001.0001
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Operations ResearchProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

Uniformly Bounded Regret in the Multi-Secretary Problem 2: When (f₁+ε)n ≤ k ≤ (1−fₘ−ε)n, Every Non-Adaptive Policy Has Regret at Least M√nResearch Paper

Motivation

The multi-secretary problem is the basic model of selecting under a budget from a stream of offers. Hiring a fixed number of candidates, accepting a fixed number of requests for a perishable resource, and admitting customers into a capacity-limited service all have this structure. Each item must be accepted or rejected on arrival, and the comparison point is the offline decision maker, who sees the whole sequence and keeps the best kkk items. The gap between the two expected values is the regret.

A common class of heuristics in revenue management and online resource allocation does not react to the realised history. These policies fix in advance, period by period, a probability of accepting each type of item, and then follow it until the budget runs out; static bid-price and randomised-acceptance rules are of this kind (Talluri and van Ryzin 2004). Arlotto and Gurvich (arXiv:1710.07719v2, Theorem 1) show that when abilities take finitely many values, an adaptive policy has regret bounded uniformly in the horizon nnn and the budget kkk. Their Theorem 3 shows that the restriction to non-adaptive policies costs order n\sqrt nn​ over a wide range of budgets. Read together, these two results separate adaptive from non-adaptive control by an unbounded factor. This mission formalizes the non-adaptive half.

Setting

There are nnn candidates with abilities X1,…,XnX_1,\dots,X_nX1​,…,Xn​, independent and identically distributed on mmm values 0<am<am−1<⋯<a10<a_m<a_{m-1}<\dots<a_10<am​<am−1​<⋯<a1​, with masses fj=P(X1=aj)>0f_j=\mathbb P(X_1=a_j)>0fj​=P(X1​=aj​)>0 and ∑jfj=1\sum_jf_j=1∑j​fj​=1. Write ϵ=12min⁡jfj\epsilon=\tfrac12\min_jf_jϵ=21​minj​fj​ and Fˉ(aj)=f1+⋯+fj−1\bar F(a_j)=f_1+\dots+f_{j-1}Fˉ(aj​)=f1​+⋯+fj−1​. The budget is kkk, with 0≤k≤n0\le k\le n0≤k≤n.

The offline value is

Voff∗(n,k)=E[max⁡{∑tXtσt:σ∈{0,1}n, ∑tσt≤k}].V^*_{\mathrm{off}}(n,k)=\mathbb E\Big[\max\Big\{\textstyle\sum_tX_t\sigma_t:\sigma\in\{0,1\}^n,\ \sum_t\sigma_t\le k\Big\}\Big].Voff∗​(n,k)=E[max{∑t​Xt​σt​:σ∈{0,1}n, ∑t​σt​≤k}].

A non-adaptive policy is a matrix π={pj,t∈[0,1]}\pi=\{p_{j,t}\in[0,1]\}π={pj,t​∈[0,1]}. At time ttt, if budget remains and Xt=ajX_t=a_jXt​=aj​, the candidate is selected with probability pj,tp_{j,t}pj,t​, independently of everything else. The selection coins BtB_tBt​ are then independent Bernoulli variables with qt=E[Bt]=∑jpj,tfjq_t=\mathbb E[B_t]=\sum_jp_{j,t}f_jqt​=E[Bt​]=∑j​pj,t​fj​. The policy selects until kkk coins have come up. Its value Vonπ(n,k)V^\pi_{\mathrm{on}}(n,k)Vonπ​(n,k) is the expected total ability selected, and

Vna∗(n,k)=sup⁡πVonπ(n,k).V^*_{\mathrm{na}}(n,k)=\sup_{\pi}V^\pi_{\mathrm{on}}(n,k).Vna∗​(n,k)=πsup​Vonπ​(n,k).

The deterministic relaxation replaces the random counts Zjn=#{t:Xt=aj}Z^n_j=\#\{t:X_t=a_j\}Zjn​=#{t:Xt​=aj​} by their means. Its value is

DR(n,k)=max⁡{∑jajsj:0≤sj≤nfj, ∑jsj≤k},DR(n,k)=\max\Big\{\textstyle\sum_ja_js_j:0\le s_j\le nf_j,\ \sum_js_j\le k\Big\},DR(n,k)=max{∑j​aj​sj​:0≤sj​≤nfj​, ∑j​sj​≤k},

with solution sj∗=min⁡{nfj,(k−nFˉ(aj))+}s^*_j=\min\{nf_j,(k-n\bar F(a_j))_+\}sj∗​=min{nfj​,(k−nFˉ(aj​))+​}. The index policy takes its probabilities from s∗s^*s∗: pj,t=sj∗/(nfj)p_{j,t}=s^*_j/(nf_j)pj,t​=sj∗​/(nfj​).

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3 (p. 25)

For every ϵ>0\epsilon>0ϵ>0, mmm and aaa there is M=M(ϵ,m,a)>0M=M(\epsilon,m,a)>0M=M(ϵ,m,a)>0 such that, for all masses with 12min⁡jfj=ϵ\tfrac12\min_jf_j=\epsilon21​minj​fj​=ϵ and all (n,k)(n,k)(n,k) with (f1+ϵ)n≤k≤(1−fm−ϵ)n(f_1+\epsilon)n\le k\le(1-f_m-\epsilon)n(f1​+ϵ)n≤k≤(1−fm​−ϵ)n,

Mn≤Voff∗(n,k)−Vna∗(n,k).M\sqrt n\le V^*_{\mathrm{off}}(n,k)-V^*_{\mathrm{na}}(n,k).Mn​≤Voff∗​(n,k)−Vna∗​(n,k).

The constant does not depend on the masses beyond ϵ\epsilonϵ, nor on nnn or kkk.

Milestones

  • Lemma 2 (p. 8): binomial overshoot, E[(B−k)+]≤1/(4ε)\mathbb E[(B-k)_+]\le1/(4\varepsilon)E[(B−k)+​]≤1/(4ε) when kkk exceeds the mean by εn\varepsilon nεn, and the symmetric bound.
  • Remark 2 (pp. 10–11): s∗s^*s∗ solves the relaxation, and Voff∗≤DRV^*_{\mathrm{off}}\le DRVoff∗​≤DR.
  • Lemma 3 (p. 25): the index policy satisfies DR−Vnaid≤ε−1a1nDR-V^{\mathrm{id}}_{\mathrm{na}}\le\varepsilon^{-1}a_1\sqrt nDR−Vnaid​≤ε−1a1​n​ when k/n≥εk/n\ge\varepsilonk/n≥ε, so the order n\sqrt nn​ is attained.
  • Lemma 5 (p. 26): for a centred Bernoulli sum with variance ς2\varsigma^2ς2, E[(±N−Υς)+]≥β1ς−(2+32)\mathbb E[(\pm N-\Upsilon\varsigma)_+]\ge\beta_1\varsigma-(2+3\sqrt2)E[(±N−Υς)+​]≥β1​ς−(2+32​) with β1(Υ)>0\beta_1(\Upsilon)>0β1​(Υ)>0, and E[(N+Υς)+2]≤β2ς2\mathbb E[(N+\Upsilon\varsigma)_+^2]\le\beta_2\varsigma^2E[(N+Υς)+2​]≤β2​ς2.
  • Lemma 7 (p. 27): an optimal non-adaptive policy exists, and any optimal one has f1/2≤qt≤1−fm/2f_1/2\le q_t\le1-f_m/2f1​/2≤qt​≤1−fm​/2 outside 2Mn2M\sqrt n2Mn​ periods, so ∑tqt(1−qt)≥f1fm4(n−2Mn)\sum_tq_t(1-q_t)\ge\tfrac{f_1f_m}4(n-2M\sqrt n)∑t​qt​(1−qt​)≥4f1​fm​​(n−2Mn​).
  • Lemma 4 (p. 25): for k≤n(f1−ϵ)k\le n(f_1-\epsilon)k≤n(f1​−ϵ) the non-adaptive regret is at most a2/(4ϵ)a_2/(4\epsilon)a2​/(4ϵ).
  • Lemma 8 and Proposition 6 (p. 40): E[Sjn]=sj∗±Mn\mathbb E[\mathfrak S^n_j]=s^*_j\pm M\sqrt nE[Sjn​]=sj∗​±Mn​, and 0≤DR−Voff∗≤Mn0\le DR-V^*_{\mathrm{off}}\le M\sqrt n0≤DR−Voff∗​≤Mn​ in general and ≤a1m/(4ϵ′)\le a_1m/(4\epsilon')≤a1​m/(4ϵ′) when k/nk/nk/n is ϵ′\epsilon'ϵ′ away from the jump points of Fˉ\bar FFˉ.

Significance

Theorem 3 is the lower half of the separation in Theorem 1 of the paper. The Budget-Ratio policy and the dynamic-programming policy have regret O(1)O(1)O(1), uniformly in (n,k)(n,k)(n,k), while every non-adaptive policy has regret Ω(n)\Omega(\sqrt n)Ω(n​) when k/nk/nk/n lies strictly between f1f_1f1​ and 1−fm1-f_m1−fm​. The order n\sqrt nn​ of fluid and static randomised policies is therefore a property of the whole class, not of a poor choice inside it. Lemma 4 shows that the budget range cannot be removed: with a small budget a non-adaptive policy is as good as any.

The result is proved in the source but has not been machine-checked. A complete development would formalize, inside one finite probabilistic model: the binomial overshoot bound, a uniform anti-concentration estimate for Bernoulli sums, the structure of optimal non-adaptive policies, and the comparison with the offline sort. The source's proof of Theorem 3 also relies on a lemma that fails as printed (see Formalization scope), so a formal proof would close a real gap in the published argument.

Difficulty

The upper bound of order n\sqrt nn​ (Lemma 3) follows from a variance computation. The lower bound must hold for every non-adaptive policy, including time-varying ones, and the obvious argument does not cover them. That argument compares a policy with the index policy and shows the index policy loses n\sqrt nn​. A policy can, however, differ from the index policy by order n\sqrt nn​ in its expected selection counts and still have regret of the same order. The step "small regret forces sj(π)≈sj∗s_j(\pi)\approx s^*_jsj​(π)≈sj∗​", which the source uses, is exactly the step that fails.

What has to be shown is that the selection count ∑tBt\sum_tB_t∑t​Bt​ of an optimal policy fluctuates by order n\sqrt nn​, uniformly in the policy. A policy that runs out of budget early then misses top-value candidates late in the horizon, and one that keeps budget wastes slots. Both effects must be bounded below by a multiple of n\sqrt nn​ that is uniform over all masses with the same ϵ\epsilonϵ. Lemma 5 needs a normal approximation with an explicit, qqq-independent error. Lemma 7 needs the existence of an optimal policy, which is a maximisation over a continuum of matrices.

Formalization scope

The source is the arXiv preprint arXiv:1710.07719v2 (1 June 2018). Its printed page numbers equal the PDF page numbers.

  • Indices. The value and mass vectors are a f : Fin m → ℝ. Lean index jjj is the paper's index j+1j+1j+1, so a 0 =a1=a_1=a1​ is the largest value and f (Fin.rev 0) =fm=f_m=fm​ is the mass of the smallest. The standing assumptions of Sec. 2 are IsValues a (strictly decreasing, positive) and IsMasses f (positive, summing to one).
  • Expectations. All expectations are finite sums over outcome sequences. For the offline problem these are x:Fin n→Fin mx:\mathrm{Fin}\,n\to\mathrm{Fin}\,mx:Finn→Finm with weight ∏tfxt\prod_tf_{x_t}∏t​fxt​​. For a non-adaptive policy they are pairs (Xt,Bt)(X_t,B_t)(Xt​,Bt​) with weight ∏tfxt pxt,tbt(1−pxt,t)1−bt\prod_tf_{x_t}\,p_{x_t,t}^{b_t}(1-p_{x_t,t})^{1-b_t}∏t​fxt​​pxt​,tbt​​(1−pxt​,t​)1−bt​. No measure theory is used.
  • Selection rule. A candidate is selected iff its coin is 111 and fewer than kkk earlier coins were 111. This equals the paper's "up to the stopping time ν\nuν" for k≥1k\ge1k≥1. At k=0k=0k=0 the printed ν=1\nu=1ν=1 would allow a selection without budget, and the feasible rule is used.
  • Suprema. Vna∗V^*_{\mathrm{na}}Vna∗​ is a supremum over all matrices with entries in [0,1][0,1][0,1], not over 0/10/10/1 matrices or the index policy alone. DRDRDR is the supremum of its linear program; it is not defined by the formula ∑jajsj∗\sum_ja_js^*_j∑j​aj​sj∗​, which is a milestone.
  • Index policy. jidj_{\mathrm{id}}jid​ is the largest index with Fˉ(ajid)≤k/n\bar F(a_{j_{\mathrm{id}}})\le k/nFˉ(ajid​​)≤k/n. As printed the defining inequality has no solution at k=nk=nk=n.
  • Constants. Each constant is quantified after (ϵ,m,a)(\epsilon,m,a)(ϵ,m,a) and before (f,n,k)(f,n,k)(f,n,k). The goal's MMM and Lemma 5's β1\beta_1β1​ are strictly positive; with M=0M=0M=0 the goal would reduce to Vna∗≤Voff∗V^*_{\mathrm{na}}\le V^*_{\mathrm{off}}Vna∗​≤Voff∗​. Theorem 3 is posed for all nnn in the range, as printed, without a threshold on nnn. Lemma 2 is stated in the multiplied form (p+ε)n≤k(p+\varepsilon)n\le k(p+ε)n≤k of its proof. Lemma 4 adds m≥2m\ge2m≥2, so that a2a_2a2​ exists.
  • Disclosed gaps in the source. The source's proof of Theorem 3 relies on a lemma that fails as printed (Lemma 6, p. 26), so Lemma 6 is not part of this mission. The statement of Theorem 3 is posed as in the source. The printed argument for the second inequality of Lemma 7's (36) does not go through, and a corrected one also uses am−1a_{m-1}am−1​. Lemma 7's constant is therefore quantified after all of aaa.

Contributions of any kind are welcome. Reusable pieces include binomial overshoot bounds, anti-concentration for sums of independent Bernoulli variables (for example via a Wasserstein normal approximation, which Mathlib lacks), and compactness arguments for optimal randomised policies.

Selected references

  • A. Arlotto, I. Gurvich, Uniformly Bounded Regret in the Multi-Secretary Problem, arXiv:1710.07719v2, 2018; Stochastic Systems 9(3), 2019. https://arxiv.org/abs/1710.07719v2
  • K. T. Talluri, G. J. van Ryzin, The Theory and Practice of Revenue Management, Springer, 2004. https://doi.org/10.1007/b139000
  • N. Ross, Fundamentals of Stein's method, Probability Surveys 8, 2011. https://doi.org/10.1214/11-PS182
  • S. Boucheron, G. Lugosi, P. Massart, Concentration Inequalities, Oxford University Press, 2013. https://doi.org/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199535255.001.0001
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Convex OptimizationOperations ResearchProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

Optimization with Stochastic Dominance Constraints: Lagrange Multipliers of a Second-Order Dominance Constraint Are Concave Nondecreasing Utility FunctionsResearch Paper

Motivation

A decision maker choosing a random outcome XXX (a portfolio return, a policy's cost savings, a schedule's throughput) often has a reference outcome YYY, the result of a benchmark policy, and wants the new outcome to be preferable to it for every risk-averse decision maker, not just on average. Expected-utility theory (von Neumann and Morgenstern) makes this precise: XXX is preferred to YYY by every decision maker with a concave nondecreasing utility function uuu exactly when XXX dominates YYY in the second order, X⪰(2)YX\succeq_{(2)}YX⪰(2)​Y. Requiring X⪰(2)YX\succeq_{(2)}YX⪰(2)​Y as a constraint in an optimization problem avoids having to elicit any particular utility function, which is rarely possible in practice and impossible when several decision makers must agree.

Dentcheva and Ruszczyński (preprint 2002, published in SIAM J. Optim. 14(2), 2003) introduced optimization problems with stochastic dominance constraints and developed their optimality and duality theory. The central finding is that the Lagrange multiplier of a second-order dominance constraint is itself a concave nondecreasing utility function: the optimal solution maximizes the objective plus an expected utility, for a utility function implied by the problem. This interpretation underlies the later literature on dominance-constrained portfolio optimization, risk-averse stochastic programming, and the dual (quantile) theory of stochastic orders.

Setting

Let (Ω,F,P)(\Omega,\mathcal F,P)(Ω,F,P) be a probability space and L1=L1(Ω,F,P)\mathcal L^1=\mathcal L^1(\Omega,\mathcal F,P)L1=L1(Ω,F,P) the space of integrable random variables with its norm topology. For X∈L1X\in\mathcal L^1X∈L1 the distribution function is F(X;η)=P[X≤η]F(X;\eta)=P[X\le\eta]F(X;η)=P[X≤η] and the second-order shortfall function is

F2(X;η)=∫−∞ηF(X;α) dα,η∈R.(2.1)F_2(X;\eta)=\int_{-\infty}^{\eta}F(X;\alpha)\,d\alpha,\qquad \eta\in\mathbb R. \tag{2.1}F2​(X;η)=∫−∞η​F(X;α)dα,η∈R.(2.1)

Changing the order of integration gives F2(X;η)=E[(η−X)+]F_2(X;\eta)=\mathbb E[(\eta-X)_+]F2​(X;η)=E[(η−X)+​] (2.6), where (⋅)+=max⁡(0,⋅)(\cdot)_+=\max(0,\cdot)(⋅)+​=max(0,⋅). The relation X⪰(2)YX\succeq_{(2)}YX⪰(2)​Y means F2(X;η)≤F2(Y;η)F_2(X;\eta)\le F_2(Y;\eta)F2​(X;η)≤F2​(Y;η) for all η\etaη, and A2(Y)={X∈L1:X⪰(2)Y}A_2(Y)=\{X\in\mathcal L^1:X\succeq_{(2)}Y\}A2​(Y)={X∈L1:X⪰(2)​Y}.

The problem data are a reference outcome Y∈L1Y\in\mathcal L^1Y∈L1, a convex closed set C⊆L1C\subseteq\mathcal L^1C⊆L1, a functional fff that is concave and continuous on CCC, and an interval [a,b][a,b][a,b]. The paper studies the relaxation in which dominance is enforced on [a,b][a,b][a,b]:

max⁡f(X)subject toE[(η−X)+]≤E[(η−Y)+]  for all η∈[a,b],X∈C.(3.1–3.3)\max f(X)\quad\text{subject to}\quad\mathbb E[(\eta-X)_+]\le\mathbb E[(\eta-Y)_+]\ \ \text{for all }\eta\in[a,b],\qquad X\in C. \tag{3.1–3.3}maxf(X)subject toE[(η−X)+​]≤E[(η−Y)+​]  for all η∈[a,b],X∈C.(3.1–3.3)

The uniform dominance condition (Definition 4.1) asks for some X~∈C\tilde X\in CX~∈C with inf⁡η∈[a,b]{F2(Y;η)−F2(X~;η)}>0\inf_{\eta\in[a,b]}\{F_2(Y;\eta)-F_2(\tilde X;\eta)\}>0infη∈[a,b]​{F2​(Y;η)−F2​(X~;η)}>0.

The multiplier class U1\mathcal U_1U1​ consists of the functions u:R→Ru:\mathbb R\to\mathbb Ru:R→R that are concave and nondecreasing, vanish on [b,∞)[b,\infty)[b,∞), and are affine on (−∞,a](-\infty,a](−∞,a]: u(t)=u(a)+c(t−a)u(t)=u(a)+c(t-a)u(t)=u(a)+c(t−a) for t≤at\le at≤a, with a constant c≥0c\ge0c≥0. The Lagrangian is

L(X,u)=f(X)+E[u(X)]−E[u(Y)].(4.1)L(X,u)=f(X)+\mathbb E[u(X)]-\mathbb E[u(Y)]. \tag{4.1}L(X,u)=f(X)+E[u(X)]−E[u(Y)].(4.1)

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 4.2

Assume the uniform dominance condition. If X^\hat XX^ is an optimal solution of (3.1)–(3.3), there is u^∈U1\hat u\in\mathcal U_1u^∈U1​ with

L(X^,u^)=max⁡X∈CL(X,u^)(4.2)andE[u^(X^)]=E[u^(Y)].(4.3)L(\hat X,\hat u)=\max_{X\in C}L(X,\hat u)\quad(4.2)\qquad\text{and}\qquad\mathbb E[\hat u(\hat X)]=\mathbb E[\hat u(Y)].\quad(4.3)L(X^,u^)=X∈Cmax​L(X,u^)(4.2)andE[u^(X^)]=E[u^(Y)].(4.3)

Conversely, if for some u^∈U1\hat u\in\mathcal U_1u^∈U1​ a maximizer X^∈C\hat X\in CX^∈C of L(⋅,u^)L(\cdot,\hat u)L(⋅,u^) satisfies (3.2) and (4.3), then X^\hat XX^ is optimal for (3.1)–(3.3).

Milestones

The milestones follow the paper's proof. They are: finiteness of E[u(X)]\mathbb E[u(X)]E[u(X)] for u∈U1u\in\mathcal U_1u∈U1​; the identity (2.6), already proved on the platform; Proposition 2.3 (convexity and closedness of A2(Y)A_2(Y)A2​(Y), and its recession cone); the concavity of the constraint operator G(X)(η)=F2(Y;η)−F2(X;η)G(X)(\eta)=F_2(Y;\eta)-F_2(X;\eta)G(X)(η)=F2​(Y;η)−F2​(X;η) with respect to the cone of nonnegative functions; the existence of a nonnegative measure multiplier μ^\hat\muμ^​ on [a,b][a,b][a,b] satisfying (4.5)–(4.6); the facts that the function uμ(t)=−∫tbμ([τ,b]) dτu_\mu(t)=-\int_t^b\mu([\tau,b])\,d\tauuμ​(t)=−∫tb​μ([τ,b])dτ (t<bt<bt<b), uμ(t)=0u_\mu(t)=0uμ​(t)=0 (t≥bt\ge bt≥b) of a nonnegative measure lies in U1\mathcal U_1U1​ and that every u∈U1u\in\mathcal U_1u∈U1​ is uμu_\muuμ​ for exactly one μ\muμ; the key identity

∫abF2(X;η) dμ(η)=−E[uμ(X)];(4.9)\int_a^b F_2(X;\eta)\,d\mu(\eta)=-\mathbb E[u_\mu(X)]; \tag{4.9}∫ab​F2​(X;η)dμ(η)=−E[uμ​(X)];(4.9)

and the weak-duality step: (3.2) implies E[u(X)]≥E[u(Y)]\mathbb E[u(X)]\ge\mathbb E[u(Y)]E[u(X)]≥E[u(Y)] for every u∈U1u\in\mathcal U_1u∈U1​.

Further: Theorem 5.1

With D(u)=sup⁡X∈CL(X,u)D(u)=\sup_{X\in C}L(X,u)D(u)=supX∈C​L(X,u), the dual problem min⁡u∈U1D(u)\min_{u\in\mathcal U_1}D(u)minu∈U1​​D(u) has a solution, its value equals the primal optimal value, and its solutions are exactly the u^∈U1\hat u\in\mathcal U_1u^∈U1​ satisfying (4.2)–(4.3).

Significance

Theorem 4.2 turns an infinite family of constraints, one for each η∈[a,b]\eta\in[a,b]η∈[a,b], into a single scalar trade-off: at the optimum, the decision maker behaves as an expected-utility maximizer for an implicit utility u^\hat uu^, and the dominance constraint is active exactly in the sense E[u^(X^)]=E[u^(Y)]\mathbb E[\hat u(\hat X)]=\mathbb E[\hat u(Y)]E[u^(X^)]=E[u^(Y)]. Theorem 5.1 makes U1\mathcal U_1U1​ the space of dual variables, which is the starting point of dual decomposition and cutting-plane methods for dominance-constrained problems and of their extensions to several constraints and to higher orders (Sections 6–7 of the paper, not part of this mission).

All results are proved in the paper. Apart from the identity (2.6), which is proved on the platform, none of them is formalized as far as the platform records show. A machine-checked development would provide, on top of the paper, a rigorous treatment of the measure–utility correspondence that the paper obtains from a textbook theorem "after an obvious adaptation", and a careful account of the multiplier class itself (see the scope section on the constant ccc). The definitions of F2F_2F2​ and of the identity (2.6) are shared with the platform's missions on Dual Stochastic Dominance and Related Mean-Risk Models (Ogryczak and Ruszczyński, 2002).

Difficulty

The necessity half needs a Lagrange multiplier for a constraint taking values in the infinite-dimensional space C([a,b])\mathcal C([a,b])C([a,b]); finite-dimensional convex duality does not apply, and the multiplier first appears as a nonnegative measure on [a,b][a,b][a,b], an element of the dual of C([a,b])\mathcal C([a,b])C([a,b]). A Slater-type point is required: without the uniform dominance condition the multiplier may not exist. This is why the dominance relation, which the paper first poses on all of R\mathbb RR, is relaxed to a bounded interval [a,b][a,b][a,b]: for a reference outcome with a smallest value y1y_1y1​, F2(Y;y1)=0F_2(Y;y_1)=0F2​(Y;y1​)=0, so no X~\tilde XX~ can dominate YYY strictly near y1y_1y1​.

The second obstacle is the translation of that measure into a utility function. The identity (4.9) requires an interchange of integrals over R×[a,b]\mathbb R\times[a,b]R×[a,b] and an integration by parts against the distribution function of an arbitrary integrable XXX, followed by a limit in which the integrability of XXX controls the linear growth of uuu at −∞-\infty−∞. The converse direction needs every u∈U1u\in\mathcal U_1u∈U1​ to be represented by a unique measure, through the left derivative of a concave function.

Formalization scope

Outcomes are elements of Mathlib's L1L^1L1 space Ω →₁[P] ℝ over a probability measure P, coerced to functions inside integrals; no statement is pointwise in ω\omegaω. F2F_2F2​ is the published definition DualSSD.Shared.secondPerformance, a Bochner integral of P[X≤α]P[X\le\alpha]P[X≤α] over (−∞,η](-\infty,\eta](−∞,η]. The problem data form a structure whose fields include every standing assumption of the paper: CCC convex and closed, fff concave and continuous on CCC. The constraint (3.2) is stated in its printed expectation form, while Definition 4.1 and the proof objects use F2F_2F2​, as printed; their equality is (2.6).

Committed conventions:

  • U1\mathcal U_1U1​ uses c≥0c\ge0c≥0. The paper prints c>0c>0c>0. With c>0c>0c>0 the necessity half of Theorem 4.2 is false: take Y≡0Y\equiv0Y≡0, [a,b]=[1,2][a,b]=[1,2][a,b]=[1,2], f(X)=EXf(X)=\mathbb EXf(X)=EX and CCC the constant random variables with values in [0,1][0,1][0,1]. Then X~≡1\tilde X\equiv1X~≡1 satisfies Definition 4.1, X^≡1\hat X\equiv1X^≡1 is optimal, and (4.3) forces c=0c=0c=0. The proof itself produces c=μ([a,b])c=\mu([a,b])c=μ([a,b]), which vanishes for the zero multiplier of a slack constraint, and the paper calls U1\mathcal U_1U1​ a convex cone, which must contain 000.
  • Definition 4.1's infimum is encoded as a positive lower bound ε\varepsilonε on [a,b][a,b][a,b]. "=max⁡X∈C=\max_{X\in C}=maxX∈C​" is encoded as membership in CCC plus an upper bound over CCC.
  • A nonnegative measure in rca([a,b])\mathbf{rca}([a,b])rca([a,b]) is a finite Borel measure on R\mathbb RR giving zero mass to the complement of [a,b][a,b][a,b], which is the paper's own extension by zero. Integrals ∫ab⋅ dμ\int_a^b\cdot\,d\mu∫ab​⋅dμ are over the closed interval, so atoms at aaa and bbb count.
  • No relation between aaa and bbb is assumed. For a>ba>ba>b every statement remains meaningful: the constraint is vacuous and U1={0}\mathcal U_1=\{0\}U1​={0}.
  • Theorem 5.1's dual function takes values in the extended reals.

A trivializing formalization is ruled out: a junk-valued expectation (a Bochner integral of a non-integrable function, which Lean sets to 000) cannot occur for u∈U1u\in\mathcal U_1u∈U1​, and its integrability is a milestone. Dropping the concavity of fff or the convexity of CCC would make the necessity half false, so these assumptions are fields of the problem data.

Infrastructure a complete development needs: convex duality for cone constraints in C([a,b])\mathcal C([a,b])C([a,b]) (or a direct separation argument in R×C([a,b])\mathbb R\times\mathcal C([a,b])R×C([a,b])), the Riesz representation of nonnegative functionals on C([a,b])\mathcal C([a,b])C([a,b]), Fubini and integration by parts for Stieltjes measures, and the measure of a left-continuous monotone function. These pieces are reusable beyond this mission. Contributions to any milestone are welcome. The extensions to several dominance constraints and to higher-order dominance are not included.

Selected references

  • D. Dentcheva and A. Ruszczyński, Optimization with stochastic dominance constraints, preprint dated December 27, 2002 (Stochastic Programming E-Print Series); published in SIAM Journal on Optimization 14(2):548–566, 2003. https://doi.org/10.1137/S1052623402420528
  • W. Ogryczak and A. Ruszczyński, Dual stochastic dominance and related mean-risk models, SIAM Journal on Optimization 13(1):60–78, 2002. https://doi.org/10.1137/S1052623400375075
  • J. F. Bonnans and A. Shapiro, Perturbation Analysis of Optimization Problems, Springer, 2000. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4612-1394-9
  • J. von Neumann and O. Morgenstern, Theory of Games and Economic Behavior, Princeton University Press, 1944.
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Oracle-Based Robust Optimization via Online Learning 1: The Dual-Subgradient Meta-Algorithm Returns a 2ε-Approximate Robust Solution or Certifies Infeasibility within ⌈G²D²/ε²⌉ Oracle CallsResearch Paper

Motivation

Robust optimization protects a decision against every realization of uncertain data in a prescribed uncertainty set. The standard approach replaces the uncertain constraints by a deterministic robust counterpart and solves that counterpart directly (Ben-Tal, El Ghaoui, Nemirovski, Robust Optimization, 2009). The counterpart is often a harder problem than the original: a robust linear program with ellipsoidal uncertainty becomes a second-order cone program, and a robust quadratic program can become a semidefinite program. A practitioner who has an efficient, specialised solver for the nominal problem may therefore have no efficient solver for its robust version.

Ben-Tal, Hazan, Koren and Mannor (arXiv:1402.6361, Operations Research 2015) ask whether the robust problem can be solved by repeatedly calling a solver of the nominal problem, with the number of calls independent of the dimension. Their first answer, the dual-subgradient meta-algorithm of §3.1, does so whenever the constraints are concave in the noise and the uncertainty set is convex. It is a primal–dual scheme: an online-learning algorithm picks the noise, and the nominal solver answers. This mission formalizes that result, Theorem 3.

Setting

Let D⊆Rn\mathcal D\subseteq\mathbb R^nD⊆Rn be a convex domain, U⊆Rd\mathcal U\subseteq\mathbb R^dU⊆Rd a convex uncertainty set, and f1,…,fm:Rn×Rd→Rf_1,\dots,f_m:\mathbb R^n\times\mathbb R^d\to\mathbb Rf1​,…,fm​:Rn×Rd→R constraint functions. The robust feasibility problem (3) is

∃ x∈D:fi(x,ui)≤0∀ui∈U, i=1,…,m.\exists\,x\in\mathcal D:\qquad f_i(x,u_i)\le 0\quad\forall u_i\in\mathcal U,\ i=1,\dots,m .∃x∈D:fi​(x,ui​)≤0∀ui​∈U, i=1,…,m.

(An objective is handled by binary search on its value, so feasibility is the core question.) A point x∈Dx\in\mathcal Dx∈D is an ϵ\epsilonϵ-approximate solution if fi(x,u)≤ϵf_i(x,u)\le\epsilonfi​(x,u)≤ϵ for all u∈Uu\in\mathcal Uu∈U and all iii.

An ϵ\epsilonϵ-approximate oracle Oϵ\mathcal O_\epsilonOϵ​ (Figure 1) takes a noise vector u=(u1,…,um)∈Umu=(u_1,\dots,u_m)\in\mathcal U^mu=(u1​,…,um​)∈Um and either returns some x∈Dx\in\mathcal Dx∈D with fi(x,ui)≤ϵf_i(x,u_i)\le\epsilonfi​(x,ui​)≤ϵ for all iii, or answers "infeasible", which it may do only if no x∈Dx\in\mathcal Dx∈D has fi(x,ui)≤0f_i(x,u_i)\le 0fi​(x,ui​)≤0 for all iii.

The standing assumptions of §3.1 are: each fi(⋅,u)f_i(\cdot,u)fi​(⋅,u) is convex on D\mathcal DD; each fi(x,⋅)f_i(x,\cdot)fi​(x,⋅) is concave on U\mathcal UU for x∈Dx\in\mathcal Dx∈D; D≥∥u−v∥2D\ge\|u-v\|_2D≥∥u−v∥2​ for all u,v∈Uu,v\in\mathcal Uu,v∈U; and ∥∇ufi(x,u)∥2≤G\|\nabla_u f_i(x,u)\|_2\le G∥∇u​fi​(x,u)∥2​≤G for x∈Dx\in\mathcal Dx∈D, u∈Uu\in\mathcal Uu∈U. Write PPP for the Euclidean projection onto U\mathcal UU.

Algorithm 1 sets T=⌈G2D2/ϵ2⌉T=\lceil G^2D^2/\epsilon^2\rceilT=⌈G2D2/ϵ2⌉ and η=D/(GT)\eta=D/(G\sqrt T)η=D/(GT​), starts from u10,…,um0∈Uu^0_1,\dots,u^0_m\in\mathcal Uu10​,…,um0​∈U, and for t=1,…,Tt=1,\dots,Tt=1,…,T updates

uit=P(uit−1+η ∇ufi(xt−1,uit−1)),xt=Oϵ(u1t,…,umt),u^t_i=P\bigl(u^{t-1}_i+\eta\,\nabla_u f_i(x^{t-1},u^{t-1}_i)\bigr),\qquad x^t=\mathcal O_\epsilon(u^t_1,\dots,u^t_m),uit​=P(uit−1​+η∇u​fi​(xt−1,uit−1​)),xt=Oϵ​(u1t​,…,umt​),

stopping with "infeasible" as soon as the oracle says so, and otherwise returning xˉ=1T∑t=1Txt\bar x=\frac1T\sum_{t=1}^T x^txˉ=T1​∑t=1T​xt. In Lean these are alg1T, alg1Eta, alg1U, alg1X, alg1Output and alg1Calls in the namespace OracleRO.DualSubgrad.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3 (p. 7)

For every ϵ\epsilonϵ-approximate oracle,

output="infeasible" ⟹ ¬ ∃x∈D ∀i ∀u∈U: fi(x,u)≤0,\text{output}=\text{"infeasible"}\ \Longrightarrow\ \neg\,\exists x\in\mathcal D\ \forall i\ \forall u\in\mathcal U:\ f_i(x,u)\le 0,output="infeasible" ⟹ ¬∃x∈D ∀i ∀u∈U: fi​(x,u)≤0, output=xˉ ⟹ xˉ∈D  and  fi(xˉ,u)≤2ϵ  ∀i, ∀u∈U,\text{output}=\bar x\ \Longrightarrow\ \bar x\in\mathcal D\ \text{ and }\ f_i(\bar x,u)\le 2\epsilon\ \ \forall i,\ \forall u\in\mathcal U,output=xˉ ⟹ xˉ∈D  and  fi​(xˉ,u)≤2ϵ  ∀i, ∀u∈U,

and the number of oracle calls is at most ⌈G2D2/ϵ2⌉\lceil G^2D^2/\epsilon^2\rceil⌈G2D2/ϵ2⌉.

Milestones

  1. Lemma 1 (p. 5, Zinkevich 2003): projected online gradient ascent with step η=D/(GT)\eta=D/(G\sqrt T)η=D/(GT​) on concave rewards has regret ∑tft(x∗)−∑tft(xt)≤GDT\sum_t f_t(x^*)-\sum_t f_t(x_t)\le GD\sqrt T∑t​ft​(x∗)−∑t​ft​(xt​)≤GDT​ for every x∗x^*x∗ in the decision set.
  2. (6) (p. 7): if a point is returned, 1T∑t=1Tfi(xt,uit)≤ϵ\frac1T\sum_{t=1}^T f_i(x^t,u^t_i)\le\epsilonT1​∑t=1T​fi​(xt,uit​)≤ϵ for every iii.
  3. (7) (p. 8): for every iii and u∈Uu\in\mathcal Uu∈U, 1T∑tfi(xt,u)−1T∑tfi(xt,uit)≤GD/T≤ϵ\frac1T\sum_t f_i(x^t,u)-\frac1T\sum_t f_i(x^t,u^t_i)\le GD/\sqrt T\le\epsilonT1​∑t​fi​(xt,u)−T1​∑t​fi​(xt,uit​)≤GD/T​≤ϵ.
  4. Final inequality of the proof (p. 8): fi(xˉ,u)≤1T∑tfi(xt,u)f_i(\bar x,u)\le\frac1T\sum_t f_i(x^t,u)fi​(xˉ,u)≤T1​∑t​fi​(xt,u) for u∈Uu\in\mathcal Uu∈U.

Significance

The result. Theorem 3 turns any approximate solver of the nominal problem into an approximate solver of its robust counterpart, at a cost of ⌈G2D2/ϵ2⌉\lceil G^2D^2/\epsilon^2\rceil⌈G2D2/ϵ2⌉ solver calls, a number that depends on the geometry of U\mathcal UU and the sensitivity of the constraints to the noise but not on nnn, ddd or mmm. It is the prototype of the paper's oracle-based reductions: the same primal–dual template, with a different online learner, gives the dual-perturbation algorithm of §3.2–3.3 for non-convex uncertainty sets, and the applications of §4 (robust linear programs, quadratic programs, semidefinite programs) instantiate it.

Formalizing it. The theorem is proved in the paper; none of it is machine-checked. A formal development adds a checked statement of the reduction with an explicit call count in place of the paper's O(⋅)O(\cdot)O(⋅), and a reusable regret bound for projected online gradient ascent on concave rewards (Lemma 1), which the paper quotes from Zinkevich without proof and which many other online-learning results rest on.

Difficulty

The obvious argument for the dual side fails at one point: in round ttt the primal point xtx^txt is computed from utu^tut, so the reward fi(xt,⋅)f_i(x^t,\cdot)fi​(xt,⋅) that the dual player faces depends on its own current move. A regret bound that assumed rewards fixed in advance, or drawn independently of the learner's play, would not apply. Lemma 1 must be used in its adversarial form, valid for every sequence of reward functions, including adaptively chosen ones. A second point is that the projection step requires the variational characterization of a nearest point in a convex set, which a mere "map into U\mathcal UU" does not provide.

Formalization scope

Points are elements of EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin k), so every norm is the ℓ2\ell_2ℓ2​ norm. The projection is a predicate IsProjOnto U P (each P(y)P(y)P(y) is a nearest point of U\mathcal UU to yyy), not a construction; the oracle is a function (Fin m → E d) → Option (E n) with none for "infeasible", constrained by the predicate IsApproxOracle on inputs in Um\mathcal U^mUm. The goal is quantified over every oracle meeting that specification. The gradient ∇ufi(x,u)\nabla_u f_i(x,u)∇u​fi​(x,u) is a given map gradU with HasGradientAt at points of U\mathcal UU; no differentiability in xxx is assumed. Rounds are indexed by natural numbers with index 000 for the initialization; the starting primal point x0∈Dx^0\in\mathcal Dx0∈D, used by the first update and left undefined by the algorithm, is an input. Hypotheses D>0D>0D>0 and G>0G>0G>0 are added so that η\etaη and T≥1T\ge1T≥1 are meaningful. Maxima over U\mathcal UU are stated as "for every u∈Uu\in\mathcal Uu∈U".

Explicit instantiations and corrections:

  • The paper's "O(G2D2/ϵ2)O(G^2D^2/\epsilon^2)O(G2D2/ϵ2) calls" is stated as at most ⌈G2D2/ϵ2⌉\lceil G^2D^2/\epsilon^2\rceil⌈G2D2/ϵ2⌉ calls (one call per round, TTT rounds).
  • Lemma 1's "G≥max⁡t∥ft(xt)∥G\ge\max_t\|f_t(x_t)\|G≥maxt​∥ft​(xt​)∥" is read as the gradient bound ∥∇ft(xt)∥≤G\|\nabla f_t(x_t)\|\le G∥∇ft​(xt​)∥≤G, as the same sentence describes it.
  • The proof's "Combining (10) and (12)" refers to (6) and (7).

Trivializing formalizations are ruled out: an oracle specification under which "infeasible" is never returned, or an output that is not the average of the oracle's answers, would not be Theorem 3. The "infeasible" conclusion is about the robust problem, not the nominal one.

A complete development needs the variational inequality for nearest points in a convex set, the gradient (supergradient) inequality for a concave function differentiable at a point of a convex set, Zinkevich's telescoping argument, and Jensen's inequality for finite averages. The first two and Lemma 1 are reusable beyond this mission. Proofs of the milestones, in any order, are welcome.

Selected references

  • A. Ben-Tal, E. Hazan, T. Koren, S. Mannor, Oracle-Based Robust Optimization via Online Learning, arXiv:1402.6361v1, 2014; Operations Research 63(3), 2015. https://arxiv.org/abs/1402.6361v1
  • M. Zinkevich, Online Convex Programming and Generalized Infinitesimal Gradient Ascent, ICML 2003. https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.5555/3041838.3041955
  • A. Ben-Tal, L. El Ghaoui, A. Nemirovski, Robust Optimization, Princeton University Press, 2009. https://doi.org/10.1515/9781400831050
  • E. Hazan, Introduction to Online Convex Optimization, Foundations and Trends in Optimization, 2016. https://arxiv.org/abs/1909.05207
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Asymptotic Optimality of Order-up-to Policies in Lost Sales Inventory Systems: Ordering Up to the Newsvendor Level for Penalty b + τh Is Asymptotically Optimal as b → ∞Research Paper

Motivation

Periodic-review inventory systems face a simple choice each period: how much to order before the next demand is known. When unmet demand is lost, the order can affect the stock available several periods later without preserving a backlog that records earlier shortages. This makes the optimal policy difficult to describe when replenishment takes time. An order-up-to policy offers a practical rule: order enough to bring the inventory position to a fixed level. Huh, Janakiraman, Muckstadt and Rusmevichientong ask when that simple rule performs as well as the best admissible lost-sales policy as the penalty for a lost unit grows. Their working paper, pp. 3–4 and 17–18, proves asymptotic optimality for a particular level obtained from a related backorder system.

The motivating costs are concrete. A lost sale may represent an expedited service part or a missed sale whose cost is much larger than one period of holding inventory. The paper's central comparison concerns the high-penalty regime while holding the demand law, lead time and holding rate fixed. The fixed-level policy can be computed from the distribution of demand over the lead time plus the order period; it does not require solving the full lost-sales control problem. The paper also supplies a finite-penalty bound, which this mission retains as a milestone. Huh et al., pp. 3–4, 17–18.

Setting

Let D1,D2,…D_1,D_2,\ldotsD1​,D2​,… be independent, identically distributed nonnegative demands with finite positive mean. An order takes a fixed integer lead time τ≥1\tau\ge1τ≥1 to arrive. At the start of period ttt, the order placed τ\tauτ periods earlier arrives; then a new order is placed, and demand DtD_tDt​ is observed. Unmet demand is lost. At period end, each unit remaining on hand incurs holding cost h>0h>0h>0, and each lost unit incurs penalty b>0b>0b>0. The inventory position counts on-hand units and outstanding orders. An order-up-to-SSS policy raises this position to S≥0S\ge0S≥0 whenever possible.

Write CL,S(h,b)C^{\mathcal L,S}(h,b)CL,S(h,b) for the long-run average cost of that policy and CL∗(h,b)C^{\mathcal L*}(h,b)CL∗(h,b) for the infimum over admissible policies. The corresponding backorder system retains unmet demand as negative net inventory and charges bbb per backordered unit per period. For an order-up-to level SSS, its stationary average cost is

CB,S(h,b)=hE[(S−D)+]+bE[(D−S)+],D=∑i=1τ+1Di.C^{\mathcal B,S}(h,b)=h\mathbb E[(S-\mathbf D)^+]+b\mathbb E[(\mathbf D-S)^+],\qquad \mathbf D=\sum_{i=1}^{\tau+1}D_i.CB,S(h,b)=hE[(S−D)+]+bE[(D−S)+],D=i=1∑τ+1​Di​.

The newsvendor level SB∗(h,b)S^{\mathcal B*}(h,b)SB∗(h,b) is the smallest nonnegative SSS with Pr⁡(D≤S)≥b/(b+h)\Pr(\mathbf D\le S)\ge b/(b+h)Pr(D≤S)≥b/(b+h); it attains the best backorder order-up-to cost CB∗(h,b)C^{\mathcal B*}(h,b)CB∗(h,b). The paper's Assumption 1 concerns this lead-time demand D\mathbf DD: if mD(t)=E[D−t∣D>t]m_{\mathbf D}(t)=\mathbb E[\mathbf D-t\mid\mathbf D>t]mD​(t)=E[D−t∣D>t] when the conditioning event has positive probability and zero otherwise, then mD(t)/t→0m_{\mathbf D}(t)/t\to0mD​(t)/t→0 as t→∞t\to\inftyt→∞. Huh et al., pp. 3–4, 9, 11–12.

Formalization targets

Asymptotically optimal order-up-to level

Fix hhh, τ\tauτ and the demand law satisfying Assumption 1. Set Sb+τh=SB∗(h,b+τh)S_{b+\tau h}=S^{\mathcal B*}(h,b+\tau h)Sb+τh​=SB∗(h,b+τh). The goal is the equivalent multiplicative form of Theorem 15(b): for every ε>0\varepsilon>0ε>0, all sufficiently large bbb satisfy

inf⁡S≥0CL,S(h,b)≤CL,Sb+τh(h,b)≤(1+ε)CL∗(h,b).\inf_{S\ge0}C^{\mathcal L,S}(h,b)\le C^{\mathcal L,S_{b+\tau h}}(h,b)\le(1+\varepsilon)C^{\mathcal L*}(h,b).S≥0inf​CL,S(h,b)≤CL,Sb+τh​(h,b)≤(1+ε)CL∗(h,b).

The infimum over order-up-to levels captures the paper's best such policy. The right-hand comparator remains the infimum over all admissible lost-sales policies. The multiplicative form also covers an almost-surely constant demand law, where both costs can be zero and a literal ratio would be undefined. Huh et al., Theorem 15(b), p. 17.

Explicit finite-penalty bound

Theorem 15(a) is a milestone. With S′=SB∗(h,b/(τ+1))S'=S^{\mathcal B*}(h,b/(\tau+1))S′=SB∗(h,b/(τ+1)) and ψ(S′;h,q)=qE[(D−S′)+]/(hE[(S′−D)+])\psi(S';h,q)=q\mathbb E[(\mathbf D-S')^+]/(h\mathbb E[(S'-\mathbf D)^+])ψ(S′;h,q)=qE[(D−S′)+]/(hE[(S′−D)+]), its factor is

1+νbψ(S′;h,b/(τ+1))1+ψ(S′;h,b/(τ+1)),νb=(b+τh)(τ+1)b.\frac{1+\nu_b\psi(S';h,b/(\tau+1))}{1+\psi(S';h,b/(\tau+1))},\qquad \nu_b=\frac{(b+\tau h)(\tau+1)}{b}.1+ψ(S′;h,b/(τ+1))1+νb​ψ(S′;h,b/(τ+1))​,νb​=b(b+τh)(τ+1)​.

The milestone states the bound where the expected holding quantity in ψ\psiψ is positive. Earlier milestones state the pathwise comparison of the systems, the two-sided average-cost comparison with penalties b/(τ+1)b/(\tau+1)b/(τ+1) and b+τhb+\tau hb+τh, the lower bound on unrestricted lost-sales optimal cost, the newsvendor formula, and the backorder sensitivity results used by the theorem. Huh et al., Lemmas 5, 9, 13 and Theorems 6, 15, pp. 11–18.

Significance

The theorem gives a specific computable stock level whose relative cost loss vanishes in the high-penalty regime. It addresses the gap between a tractable backorder benchmark and the more difficult lost-sales control problem. The finite-penalty factor states how the comparison depends on lead time, holding cost, penalty and the shortage-to-holding ratio; the asymptotic statement alone would not quantify that dependence. The paper establishes these mathematical results; the mission asks for machine-checked proofs of the stated Lean targets. Huh et al., pp. 17–18.

Formalizing the result would also supply reusable infrastructure for coupled inventory systems: measurable demand-path laws, pathwise recursions with delayed delivery, extended nonnegative long-run costs, and a clean comparison between an explicit policy and the infimum over unrestricted policies. The backorder newsvendor and mean-residual-life components can be reused beyond this particular lost-sales model.

Difficulty

The backorder system has a closed stationary cost formula, while a lost-sales order-up-to process generally cannot be replaced directly by that formula. The paper notes that its on-hand inventory distribution need not converge from every starting state, even under a fixed order-up-to policy. One must therefore justify the long-run comparison without assuming stationarity from an arbitrary start. A second difficulty is the benchmark: comparing only against other order-up-to policies is too weak to establish Theorem 15, because the goal uses the optimal cost over all admissible lost-sales policies. Huh et al., pp. 14–16, 18.

Formalization scope

Lean reuses the published CappedBaseStock lost-sales model. Its demands are nonnegative and i.i.d. with finite positive mean; τ≥1\tau\ge1τ≥1 and h,b>0h,b>0h,b>0. Period zero in Lean is period one in the paper. Both coupled processes start with zero on-hand stock and an empty pipeline. Inventory XtX_tXt​ is read immediately after delivery, before current demand. Lost-sales costs lie in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞] and use the limsup of expected Cesàro averages; the backorder closed form uses real Bochner expectations under finite-mean demand. The paper's stationary lost-sales cost and this Cesàro cost are identified using its long-run results, but those convergence results are outside this proposal. Huh et al., pp. 14–16.

The paper prints nonnegative rates in Theorem 15, while its displayed newsvendor fraction and shortage-to-holding ratios require positive denominators. Theorem 6(a) therefore states the ratio limit for nonconstant demand laws. The main theorem uses a multiplicative limit bound that also covers constant demand, where the printed ratio is undefined.

The quantity CL∗C^{\mathcal L*}CL∗ is an infimum over measurable, history-dependent policies with private randomization; no attaining policy is assumed. The backorder optimum is an infimum over nonnegative order-up-to levels. Assumption 1 is imposed on the sum of τ+1\tau+1τ+1 demands, and the limit b→∞b\to\inftyb→∞ is expressed by a positive threshold uniform over all parameter records with the fixed lead time and holding rate. The mission excludes a restricted policy comparator, a fixed penalty, a one-period lead-time specialization, and Assumption 1 on single-period demand. Solvers may contribute proofs of any milestone, along with finite-mean and measurability lemmas needed to connect the model to the backorder benchmarks.

Selected references

  • W. T. Huh, G. Janakiraman, J. A. Muckstadt and P. Rusmevichientong, Asymptotic Optimality of Order-up-to Policies in Lost Sales Inventory Systems, working paper, December 4, 2006; published in Management Science 55(3), 2009. DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.1080.0945.
  • G. Janakiraman, S. Seshadri and G. Shanthikumar, A Comparison of the Optimal Costs of Two Canonical Inventory Systems, working paper, Stern School of Business, New York University, 2005; bound quoted in Huh et al., §5, p. 13. Quoted source.
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