On Properties of Stochastic Inventory Systems II: The Optimal Order Quantity of the Stochastic (Q, r) Model Exceeds the EOQ by a Bounded GapResearch Paper
Motivation
The continuous-review policy is the standard control rule for a single stocked item with random demand: whenever the inventory position falls to the reorder point , an order of fixed size is placed. It is implemented in a large share of commercial inventory systems. Choosing the two parameters jointly has traditionally required numerical search (Hadley and Whitin, 1963; Federgruen and Zheng, 1992). In practice the order quantity is therefore often taken from the deterministic economic order quantity (EOQ) formula with backorders, and the reorder point is then set for the random demand.
Zheng (1992) turned this practice into a question with an exact answer: how does the optimal order quantity of the stochastic model compare with the EOQ quantity computed from the same cost data and the same mean demand? Its Theorem 2 answers it with a two-sided bound. This mission formalizes that theorem. Companion missions of the same series formalize the paper's cost bounds (Theorem 3), the flatness of the cost curve (Theorem 4) and the bound on the cost of using the EOQ quantity (Theorem 5).
Setting
Demand arrives at rate and replenishment orders arrive after a fixed leadtime . Shortages are backordered. Holding costs accrue at rate per unit held, backorder penalties at rate per unit short, and every order costs . The leadtime demand is a nonnegative random variable with law and mean . The expected inventory cost rate at inventory position is the newsvendor cost
assumed, as in the paper, to attain its minimum at a unique point . The long-run average cost of the policy is
For each , let be an optimal reorder point, i.e. a minimizer of . The analysis runs through the curves
and through the cost of order quantity with the reorder point set optimally. The optimal order quantity is the minimizer of over .
The EOQ model is the case of a constant leadtime demand . Its cost rate is , and the same construction gives , , and the optimal quantity
Formalization targets
Goal: Theorem 2 (p. 96)
For , let , , be the positive solutions of
Each has exactly one positive solution, and
Moreover, with and the demand law fixed, is nondecreasing on and converges to a finite constant as .
Milestones
The milestones are the paper's own numbered results that feed Theorem 2, listed in the order the argument uses them:
- Lemma 2 (p. 90): for , is optimal iff .
- Eq. (7) (p. 91): .
- Lemma 4 (p. 91): is increasing and convex with asymptotic slope .
- Lemma 6 (p. 92): is increasing and convex, and iff .
- Eqs. (18), (20) (p. 94): , and is optimal for the EOQ model.
- Lemma 7 (p. 95): and .
- Lemma 8 (p. 95): , with equalities for deterministic demand.
Significance
The result. Theorem 2 says that the EOQ formula always underestimates the optimal order quantity when leadtime demand is random. The underestimate is bounded by , a quantity that stays bounded however large the ordering cost is. So the relative error of the EOQ quantity vanishes as grows. The first inequality, , is also an ingredient of the paper's Theorem 3 (cost bounds) and Theorem 5 (the EOQ quantity raises costs by at most ). The explicit bounds , , bracket and give a search interval for it.
Formalizing it. The theorem has been proved on paper since 1992. No machine-checked version of it, or of the continuous-review cost of Eq. (1), exists on this platform. The inventory items already here treat the discrete cost with integer order quantities, a normally distributed demand, or the EOQ without backorders. This mission provides a machine-checked version of the paper's optimality conditions for a general demand distribution. The paper's argument differentiates twice, i.e. it tacitly assumes a density. The formal statements do not, so a formal proof must redo those steps with one-sided (convexity) arguments. The printed argument for the limit in part (b) shows only that a derivative tends to zero. A complete proof of convergence is part of the work.
Difficulty
The obvious route to compares the two cost curves and directly. It fails because pointwise, and a pointwise inequality between two convex functions says nothing about the order of their minimizers. The stochastic curve is defined only implicitly, as evaluated at a minimizer of a parametric integral, so its growth relative to the linear has to be established before any comparison of order quantities. For part (b), a vanishing derivative does not imply convergence ( also has a vanishing derivative), so the printed proof of the limit does not go through as written.
Without a density, need not be differentiable. Every derivative in the paper's proofs (of , and ) must be replaced by monotonicity or chord arguments.
Formalization scope
The Lean development uses the namespace ZhengQR.OrderQty. Its conventions:
- Parameters. are reals, all assumed strictly positive. is implicit in the paper; at the optimal quantity degenerates.
- Demand. The law of is a probability measure on that is integrable, has mean and is carried by . No density is assumed, so discrete laws such as the Poisson of the paper's §4 are allowed.
- Standing assumption. has a unique global minimizer (p. 90). It is a hypothesis of every statement about the stochastic model.
- Generic machinery. , , , , , , and optimality of are defined for an arbitrary cost rate and applied to both the newsvendor cost and . So Eqs. (18) and (20) are theorems, not definitions. and are chosen minimizers, never solutions of Lemma 2's equation. minimizes , which for has the same minimizers as , so , and do not depend on .
- Domains. , and are used on , and for only, and is a minimizing over .
- Readings of informal words.
- Lemma 4's "increasing" and Lemma 6's "increasing/decreasing" mean strictly.
- Lemma 4's "asymptotic slope " means together with the chord bound for .
- "" means the unique positive solution. The goal quantifies over every positive solution and separately asserts that exactly one exists.
- Theorem 2's "increasing function of " means nondecreasing, which is what the paper's proof establishes (a nonnegative derivative).
- "Converges to a constant" means a finite real limit.
- Lemma 8's "the leadtime demand is deterministic" means the EOQ model with cost rate .
- Ruling out trivial readings. The goal's hypotheses are satisfiable (for example by a deterministic leadtime demand). Existence of (Lemma 6) and of , , (the goal itself) is asserted, so neither the bounds nor the limit hold vacuously.
Infrastructure needed includes the following. Much of it is reusable for any single-item inventory model:
- differentiation under the expectation, or one-sided substitutes, for ;
- convexity of as the inverse of the width of the sublevel sets of ;
- the envelope identity behind Eq. (7);
- elementary convex-analysis facts about chords.
Contributions welcome: proofs of the milestones in any order, general lemmas on the newsvendor cost, and a complete convergence argument for part (b).
Selected references
- Y.-S. Zheng, On Properties of Stochastic Inventory Systems, Management Science 38(1):87–103, 1992. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.38.1.87
- A. Federgruen, Y.-S. Zheng, An Efficient Algorithm for Computing an Optimal (r, Q) Policy in Continuous Review Stochastic Inventory Systems, Operations Research 40(4):808–813, 1992. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.40.4.808