Optimal Policies for a Multi-Echelon Inventory Problem: The Two-Echelon Optimal Cost Splits into the Isolated Installation-1 Cost Plus a Function of Echelon StockResearch Paper
Motivation
Most physical supply chains hold stock at several levels: a factory warehouse feeds a regional depot, which feeds a retail outlet. Each level orders from the one above it, and a shortage upstream delays replenishment downstream. Optimizing such a multi-echelon system by dynamic programming looks hopeless, because the state is a vector of stock levels and stock in transit at every installation, and the value function of a two-installation system with a two-period shipping lag already depends on three continuous variables.
Andrew J. Clark and Herbert Scarf (Management Science 6(4):475–490, 1960) showed that for a serial system this curse of dimensionality disappears. Working with echelon stock (the stock at a level plus everything below it or in transit to a lower level), the optimal system cost separates into the cost of the lowest installation, optimized as if it stood alone, plus a function of echelon stock only. The result is the foundation of multi-echelon inventory theory: the echelon base-stock policies used in practice, the stationary analyses of Federgruen and Zipkin (1984) and Chen and Zheng (1994), and textbook treatments (Zipkin, Foundations of Inventory Management, 2000; Snyder and Shen, Fundamentals of Supply Chain Theory) all descend from it.
Timeline. Arrow, Harris and Marschak (1951) and Arrow, Karlin and Scarf (1958) set up periodic-review inventory models with discounted costs. Karlin and Scarf (1958) treated a single installation with a delivery lag, reducing it to a problem without lag (the paper's facts 1–3). Clark and Scarf (1960) proved the decomposition for serial systems with linear shipping costs and a setup cost permitted only at the top. Federgruen and Zipkin (1984) extended it to infinite horizons and Chen and Zheng (1994) gave a lower-bound proof that reaches more general structures.
Setting
Two installations are in series. Customer demand occurs only at installation 1; its demand in each period is non-negative with density on , independent across periods, and excess demand is backlogged. Installation 2 ships to installation 1 with a two-period lead time at unit cost . The system orders units from outside at cost for and (eq. (5)); these arrive at installation 2 one period later. Costs periods ahead are discounted by , .
The state at the start of a period is : is the stock on hand at installation 1, the stock that reaches installation 1 next period, and the echelon-2 stock (on hand at both installations plus in transit), so . Installation 1 pays the expected holding and shortage cost (1),
and echelon 2 pays a natural one-period cost (Assumption 3).
With periods remaining, the optimal system cost satisfies, with ,
where is installation 1's target (stock on hand plus in transit after shipping). Installation 1 in isolation, buying at unit cost with a two-period lag, has optimal cost , :
In Lean these are ClarkScarf.Serial.Model.sysCost and isoCost; the expressions in braces are sysObj and isoObj, indexed by for the problem with periods remaining.
Formalization targets
Goal: Theorem 1 (p. 482)
There are functions with such that, for all and ,
and installation 1 acts optimally by aiming at an isolated-optimal target and taking , as much as installation 2 can supply. The goal fixes no form for and needs no critical numbers.
Milestones
- Convexity of (§2 item 2, p. 478).
- The isolated decomposition for , with of (7) (p. 480).
- Convexity of every (§2 item 3, p. 478).
- Eqs. (18)–(19) (p. 483): the system cost when echelon-2 stock is above or below the isolated critical number .
- Eqs. (21)–(25) (pp. 483–484): the shortfall cost depends on alone,
- Theorem 2 (p. 484), the explicit form: given critical numbers, is computed by (26), .
Significance
The result. Theorem 1 replaces one three-dimensional dynamic program by two one-dimensional ones. Installation 1 solves its own problem (15), whose solution is a critical-number policy, and echelon 2 solves a single-installation problem in with one-period cost . When is convex the augmented cost is convex (the paper remarks this for Expression (10)), so the echelon-2 policy is of type by Scarf's theorem, and the whole system runs on echelon base-stock rules. Every later serial-system result, finite or infinite horizon, uses this decomposition or its proof idea, and the "induced penalty" is the prototype of the penalty functions used in the multi-echelon literature.
Formalizing it. The theorem is classical and proved, but no machine-checked version exists. The published platform items on Clark–Scarf are a stationary single-period decomposition with normal demand and a disproved infinite-horizon base-stock recursion, neither of which is this finite-horizon dynamic program. A formal development produces the value functions (14)–(15) with real infima and set integrals, the measurability and integrability of value functions defined by infima, the convexity propagation through the recursion (7), and the decomposition itself, which are reusable for any finite-horizon inventory recursion with lead times.
Difficulty
The obvious induction on substitutes (16) into (14) and separates the minimizations over and . The separation is immediate; the hard step is that the constrained minimum over differs from the unconstrained one by an amount that a priori depends on . Showing that it depends on alone is the content of Theorem 1; nothing in the separation step itself rules out a dependence on . On the measure-theoretic side, every value function is defined by an infimum over an uncountable set and then integrated against . Its measurability and integrability are not automatic, and they must be established before any identity between integrals can be manipulated.
Formalization scope
Everything lives in ClarkScarf.Serial, one definition file Def_ClarkScarf_Serial_Model and seven theorem files. Conventions committed to:
- The model is a
structure Modelwhose fields carry the data and the standing hypotheses: ; with ; and two additions the page leaves implicit, disclosed in each statement: a finite demand mean (otherwise (1) is infinite for ) and non-negative, continuous and of at most linear growth (Assumption 3 leaves unspecified; these make every expectation in (14) finite and measurable). No discount bound , no convexity of , no and no sign condition on is assumed. - Expectations are set integrals ; "Min" is a real infimum over a nonempty feasible set of a non-negative objective.
- Every statement about is restricted to the state domain ; outside it the feasible set of (14) is empty.
- The horizon index counts periods remaining, , and for .
A formalization in which the feasible set of (14) is empty, in which the expectations are junk zeros of non-integrable integrands, or in which may depend on would make (16) trivial; the domain restriction, the integrability conditions and the order rule these out. A sorry-free check (not part of the mission) verifies and and exhibits a model with exponential demand satisfying all hypotheses.
Needed infrastructure: Fubini-type rearrangement of iterated set integrals against a density, integrability of functions of linear growth against a finite-mean density, convexity preserved under infimal projection and under convolution with a density, and measurability of infimum-defined functions. Contributions of these general lemmas, of the base cases , and of any milestone are welcome.
Selected references
- A. J. Clark and H. Scarf, Optimal Policies for a Multi-Echelon Inventory Problem, Management Science 6(4):475–490, 1960. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.6.4.475
- S. Karlin and H. Scarf, Inventory Models of the Arrow-Harris-Marschak Type with Time Lag, in Arrow, Karlin, Scarf (eds.), Studies in the Mathematical Theory of Inventory and Production, Stanford University Press, 1958.
- H. Scarf, The Optimality of (S, s) Policies in the Dynamic Inventory Problem, in Mathematical Methods in the Social Sciences, Stanford University Press, 1960.
- A. Federgruen and P. Zipkin, Computational Issues in an Infinite-Horizon, Multiechelon Inventory Model, Operations Research 32(4):818–836, 1984. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.32.4.818
- F. Chen and Y.-S. Zheng, Lower Bounds for Multi-Echelon Stochastic Inventory Systems, Management Science 40(11):1426–1443, 1994. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.40.11.1426