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Machine Learning

273 missions · 183 completed

The science of systems that learn from data and experience. Its scope runs from the statistical and mathematical foundations of learning, including generalization, expressivity, and computational limits, through the design of learning algorithms, deep learning, reinforcement learning, and probabilistic methods, to the empirical study of large models and the trustworthiness, interpretability, and societal impact of learned systems.

Missions

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ProbabilityStatistics·Captain: mikedeng1

Support Vector Machines I: Zhang's Inequality Relating the Hinge Risk and the Classification RiskTextbook

Motivation

Binary classification asks for a rule that predicts a label y∈{−1,1}y \in \{-1,1\}y∈{−1,1} from an observation xxx. The natural loss for this task, the classification loss LclassL_{\mathrm{class}}Lclass​, is a step function: minimizing its empirical average over a class of functions fff is generally NP-hard, because the objective is non-convex and discontinuous in fff. Every practical classification algorithm — logistic regression, boosting, and the support vector machine this book is about — sidesteps this by minimizing a convex surrogate loss instead, such as the hinge loss Lhinge(y,t):=max⁡{0,1−yt}L_{\mathrm{hinge}}(y,t) := \max\{0, 1-yt\}Lhinge​(y,t):=max{0,1−yt}, and hoping that a small surrogate risk implies a small classification risk.

Zhang (2004) and Bartlett, Jordan & McAuliffe (2006) put this hope on a rigorous footing: for a wide class of convex surrogates, controlling the excess surrogate risk controls the excess classification risk, with an explicit quantitative relationship. Steinwart & Christmann, Support Vector Machines (Springer 2008, Information Science and Statistics), Chapter 2, develop the special case of the hinge loss in closed form as Theorem 2.31 ("Zhang's inequality"), the sharpest and most self-contained instance of this calibration phenomenon: an exact equality for bounded functions, not merely an inequality.

Setting

Fix a measurable space (X,A)(X,\mathcal A)(X,A) and a closed label set Y⊂RY \subset \mathbb RY⊂R; throughout this mission Y:={−1,1}Y := \{-1,1\}Y:={−1,1}. A loss function is a measurable map L:X×Y×R→[0,∞)L : X \times Y \times \mathbb R \to [0,\infty)L:X×Y×R→[0,∞), read as the cost L(x,y,f(x))L(x,y,f(x))L(x,y,f(x)) of predicting yyy by f(x)f(x)f(x) when xxx is observed. Given a distribution PPP on X×YX \times YX×Y, the LLL-risk of a measurable f:X→Rf : X \to \mathbb Rf:X→R is the average cost RL,P(f):=∫X×YL(x,y,f(x)) dP(x,y)R_{L,P}(f) := \int_{X\times Y} L(x,y,f(x))\,dP(x,y)RL,P​(f):=∫X×Y​L(x,y,f(x))dP(x,y), and the Bayes risk RL,P∗:=inf⁡fRL,P(f)R^*_{L,P} := \inf_f R_{L,P}(f)RL,P∗​:=inff​RL,P​(f) is the smallest risk any measurable function can achieve.

The classification loss is Lclass(y,t):=1(−∞,0](y⋅sgn⁡t)L_{\mathrm{class}}(y,t) := \mathbf 1_{(-\infty,0]}(y \cdot \operatorname{sgn} t)Lclass​(y,t):=1(−∞,0]​(y⋅sgnt) — it charges 111 exactly when the sign of the prediction ttt disagrees with the label yyy — where sgn⁡\operatorname{sgn}sgn is the sign function with the book's convention sgn⁡(0):=1\operatorname{sgn}(0):=1sgn(0):=1. The hinge loss is Lhinge(y,t):=max⁡{0,1−yt}L_{\mathrm{hinge}}(y,t) := \max\{0,1-yt\}Lhinge​(y,t):=max{0,1−yt}, a convex, piecewise-linear upper bound on LclassL_{\mathrm{class}}Lclass​ up to a factor of 222. Writing η(x):=P(y=1∣x)\eta(x) := P(y=1\mid x)η(x):=P(y=1∣x) for the conditional probability of the positive label given xxx, the Bayes classification function is fLclass,P∗(x):=sgn⁡(2η(x)−1)f^*_{L_{\mathrm{class}},P}(x) := \operatorname{sgn}(2\eta(x)-1)fLclass​,P∗​(x):=sgn(2η(x)−1): it predicts the majority label at xxx.

A loss LLL can be clipped at M>0M>0M>0 if truncating every prediction to [−M,M][-M,M][−M,M] never increases the loss: L(x,y,t^)≤L(x,y,t)L(x,y,\widehat t) \le L(x,y,t)L(x,y,t)≤L(x,y,t) for the clipped value t^\widehat tt of ttt. Both LclassL_{\mathrm{class}}Lclass​ and LhingeL_{\mathrm{hinge}}Lhinge​ can be clipped at M=1M=1M=1.

Formalization targets

Goal: Zhang's inequality (Theorem 2.31)

RLhinge,P(f)−RLhinge,P∗=∫X∣f(x)−fLclass,P∗(x)∣⋅∣2η(x)−1∣ dPX(x)(f:X→[−1,1])R_{L_{\mathrm{hinge}},P}(f) - R^*_{L_{\mathrm{hinge}},P} = \int_X |f(x) - f^*_{L_{\mathrm{class}},P}(x)| \cdot |2\eta(x)-1| \, dP_X(x) \qquad (f : X \to [-1,1])RLhinge​,P​(f)−RLhinge​,P∗​=∫X​∣f(x)−fLclass​,P∗​(x)∣⋅∣2η(x)−1∣dPX​(x)(f:X→[−1,1]) RLclass,P(f)−RLclass,P∗  ≤  RLhinge,P(f)−RLhinge,P∗(f:X→R)R_{L_{\mathrm{class}},P}(f) - R^*_{L_{\mathrm{class}},P} \;\le\; R_{L_{\mathrm{hinge}},P}(f) - R^*_{L_{\mathrm{hinge}},P} \qquad (f : X \to \mathbb R)RLclass​,P​(f)−RLclass​,P∗​≤RLhinge​,P​(f)−RLhinge​,P∗​(f:X→R)

The first target is an exact identity for bounded predictors: the excess hinge risk equals a weighted L1L^1L1 distance to the Bayes classifier. The second, weaker but unrestricted, statement is what makes the hinge loss a valid classification surrogate for arbitrary real-valued scores: no matter how large ∣f∣|f|∣f∣ grows, the excess classification risk it incurs is bounded by its excess hinge risk. Because the second statement is the one actually used downstream (Chapter 6's oracle inequality composes it with a bound on the excess hinge risk to bound the excess classification risk), it is the weakest stable form of the calibration claim and the natural target to keep in mind when judging whether a variant formalization is still faithful.

Significance

Zhang's inequality is the single fact that licenses every consistency and rate-of-convergence result for SVM classification in the rest of the book (flagged explicitly on p. 38: "we will show in Section 3.4 that the other margin-based losses ... are also reasonable surrogates," and reused directly, e.g., in Chapter 6's oracle inequality via its restatement as Theorem 6.24 in Chapter 6 of this series). Its role is entirely mechanical but load-bearing: every SVM consistency proof reduces to bounding an excess surrogate risk, and Theorem 2.31 is what converts that bound back into a statement about the classification error anyone actually cares about.

The result itself has been known since Zhang (2004) and Bartlett–Jordan–McAuliffe (2006) in more general form (arbitrary convex margin losses, with an explicit "ψ\psiψ-transform" relating excess risks); Theorem 2.31 is the closed-form hinge-loss instance, with the equality (not just an inequality) available because the hinge loss's clipped value is exactly linear in η\etaη. No machine-checked proof of either the general or the hinge-specific statement is known to exist in a public Lean/Mathlib development at the time of writing (see prior-art search below); this mission asks for a formalization of the hinge-specific case exactly as the book states it.

Difficulty

The natural first attempt is to expand both risk differences directly as integrals over PPP and compare integrands. This works for the equality (bounded fff), because the hinge loss is piecewise linear in ttt and the calculation collapses to the algebraic identity 1+f(x)(1−2η(x))=∣f(x)−fLclass,P∗(x)∣⋅∣2η(x)−1∣1+f(x)(1-2\eta(x)) = |f(x)-f^*_{L_{\mathrm{class}},P}(x)|\cdot|2\eta(x)-1|1+f(x)(1−2η(x))=∣f(x)−fLclass​,P∗​(x)∣⋅∣2η(x)−1∣ once f∗f^*f∗ is spelled out by cases on the sign of 2η(x)−12\eta(x)-12η(x)−1. It fails for the inequality on unbounded fff: neither risk difference has a closed algebraic form once fff is allowed to leave [−1,1][-1,1][−1,1], and the excess classification risk itself is genuinely discontinuous in fff. The book's proof resolves this by clipping fff first (Lemma 2.23: clipping a convex loss at a minimizer's interval only decreases its risk) and observing the excess classification risk is invariant under clipping — this reduces the general case to the bounded case, at the cost of needing Lemma 2.23 as a genuine prerequisite rather than a routine remark. The remaining pointwise step (Lemma 2.30) is a case-by-case real-variable inequality with no probabilistic content of its own, but gets the boundary case η=1/2\eta = 1/2η=1/2 (equivalently 2η−1=02\eta-1=02η−1=0, where the book's sign convention sgn⁡(0):=1\operatorname{sgn}(0):=1sgn(0):=1 is load-bearing) wrong if that convention is not tracked precisely.

Formalization scope

XXX is an arbitrary measurable space; YYY is fixed to {−1,1}⊂R\{-1,1\} \subset \mathbb R{−1,1}⊂R throughout. A loss is represented as a plain function Loss X := X → ℝ → ℝ → ℝ; nonnegativity and the restriction of the middle argument to {−1,1}\{-1,1\}{−1,1} are supplied as explicit hypotheses at each use site rather than built into the type, since only some lemmas of the chapter need them (Lemma 2.23 needs neither). risk/bayesRisk are ordinary real-valued Bochner integrals/infima, not extended-real-valued as in the book; consequently every assertion that could otherwise degrade to a vacuous 0 - 0 from a non-integrable loss carries an explicit Integrable hypothesis on the relevant loss composed with fff — automatic in the book's own setting (bounded losses on a probability space) but not implied by the Lean types alone. η(x):=P(y=1∣x)\eta(x) := P(y=1\mid x)η(x):=P(y=1∣x) is represented by its defining disintegration identity, P(A×{1})=∫x∈Aη(x) dPX(x)P(A\times\{1\}) = \int_{x\in A}\eta(x)\,dP_X(x)P(A×{1})=∫x∈A​η(x)dPX​(x) for every measurable A⊆XA \subseteq XA⊆X, rather than via a general regular-conditional-probability construction — a specific, checkable representation of "the conditional probability of y=1y=1y=1 given xxx" rather than a synonym for it.

A trivializing formalization would let fLclass,P∗f^*_{L_{\mathrm{class}},P}fLclass​,P∗​ or η\etaη be an unconstrained hypothesis unconnected to PPP and LclassL_{\mathrm{class}}Lclass​ (making the goal a tautology about whatever function is supplied); this is ruled out here by deriving fLclass,P∗f^*_{L_{\mathrm{class}},P}fLclass​,P∗​ from η\etaη by the book's own formula sgn⁡(2η−1)\operatorname{sgn}(2\eta-1)sgn(2η−1) and constraining η\etaη by the disintegration identity above, not taking either as a free unconstrained parameter.

Lemma 2.23, Lemma 2.30, L_class/L_hinge, risk/bayesRisk and CanBeClipped/clip are reusable beyond this mission: Lemma 2.23 and the risk/Bayes-risk vocabulary recur throughout the book (clippability is used again in Section 7.4 and, per this series' README, this chapter's Theorem 2.31 itself is restated inside Chapter 6's oracle inequality). Contributions completing the two milestone proofs and the goal's sorry are welcome; a from-scratch alternative proof avoiding Lemma 2.23 (e.g. by a direct case analysis on fff outside [−1,1][-1,1][−1,1]) would also be a valid solution to the goal, since the milestones are the book's own attack path, not a required lemma structure.

Selected references

  • I. Steinwart & A. Christmann, Support Vector Machines, Springer, Information Science and Statistics, 2008. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-0-387-77242-4 (Chapter 2, pp. 21-47).
  • T. Zhang, "Statistical behavior and consistency of classification methods based on convex risk minimization," Annals of Statistics 32(1), 2004, pp. 56-85. https://doi.org/10.1214/aos/1079120130
  • P. L. Bartlett, M. I. Jordan & J. D. McAuliffe, "Convexity, classification, and risk bounds," Journal of the American Statistical Association 101(473), 2006, pp. 138-156. https://doi.org/10.1198/016214505000000907
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ProbabilityStatisticsTheoretical Computer Science·Captain: mikedeng1

Foundations of Machine Learning II: Rademacher Complexity and VC-DimensionTextbook

Motivation

Chapter 2's finite-hypothesis-set learning bound is uninformative the moment HHH is infinite — log⁡∣H∣\log|H|log∣H∣ diverges — yet most hypothesis sets used in practice (linear separators, neural networks, decision trees) are infinite. Chapter 3 answers the question the previous chapter's own worked example (axis-aligned rectangles, Example 2.4) leaves open: is efficient learning from a finite sample still possible for an infinite hypothesis set, and can this be shown in general rather than case by case? The chapter's answer runs through two complementary notions of complexity — Rademacher complexity, a data-dependent measure of how well a function family correlates with random noise, and the VC-dimension, a purely combinatorial measure of the number of distinct labelings a hypothesis set can realize on a finite point set — connected by Massart's lemma and Sauer's lemma, and culminating in a generalization bound that replaces log⁡∣H∣\log|H|log∣H∣ with the VC-dimension ddd.

Setting

For a family GGG of functions Z→[0,1]Z\to[0,1]Z→[0,1] and a sample S=(z1,…,zm)S=(z_1,\dots,z_m)S=(z1​,…,zm​), the empirical Rademacher complexity R^S(G)=Eσ[sup⁡g∈G1m∑iσig(zi)]\hat R_S(G) = \mathbb E_\sigma[\sup_{g\in G}\frac1m\sum_i\sigma_i g(z_i)]R^S​(G)=Eσ​[supg∈G​m1​∑i​σi​g(zi​)] (Definition 3.1) measures how well GGG fits random sign noise σ\sigmaσ on SSS; the Rademacher complexity Rm(G)=ES∼Dm[R^S(G)]R_m(G) = \mathbb E_{S\sim D^m}[\hat R_S(G)]Rm​(G)=ES∼Dm​[R^S​(G)] (Definition 3.2) averages this over samples. Theorem 3.3 converts a Rademacher-complexity bound directly into a generalization bound via McDiarmid's inequality. For binary hypothesis sets H⊆(X→{−1,+1})H\subseteq(X\to\{-1,+1\})H⊆(X→{−1,+1}), the growth function ΠH(m)\Pi_H(m)ΠH​(m) (Definition 3.6) counts the maximum number of distinct dichotomies HHH realizes on mmm points, and the VC-dimension VCdim(H)\mathrm{VCdim}(H)VCdim(H) (Definition 3.10) is the largest mmm for which ΠH(m)=2m\Pi_H(m)=2^mΠH​(m)=2m (i.e. HHH shatters some set of mmm points). Massart's lemma (Theorem 3.7) is the purely combinatorial tool bounding the expected maximum of a sum of signed vector components by log⁡∣A∣\sqrt{\log|A|}log∣A∣​, and Sauer's lemma (Theorem 3.17) bounds the growth function itself, by induction on m+dm+dm+d, whenever the VC-dimension is finite.

Formalization targets

Theorem 3.3 (Rademacher generalization bound, milestone). For G:Z→[0,1]G:Z\to[0,1]G:Z→[0,1] and any δ>0\delta>0δ>0, with probability at least 1−δ1-\delta1−δ over an i.i.d. sample SSS of size mmm, for all g∈Gg\in Gg∈G: E[g(z)]≤1m∑ig(zi)+2Rm(G)+log⁡(1/δ)/(2m)\mathbb E[g(z)] \le \frac1m\sum_i g(z_i) + 2R_m(G) + \sqrt{\log(1/\delta)/(2m)}E[g(z)]≤m1​∑i​g(zi​)+2Rm​(G)+log(1/δ)/(2m)​.

Theorem 3.7 (Massart's lemma, milestone). For a finite A⊆RmA\subseteq\mathbb R^mA⊆Rm with r=max⁡x∈A∥x∥2r=\max_{x\in A}\|x\|_2r=maxx∈A​∥x∥2​: Eσ[1msup⁡x∈A∑iσixi]≤r2log⁡∣A∣/m\mathbb E_\sigma[\frac1m\sup_{x\in A}\sum_i\sigma_i x_i] \le r\sqrt{2\log|A|/m}Eσ​[m1​supx∈A​∑i​σi​xi​]≤r2log∣A∣/m​.

Theorem 3.17 (Sauer's lemma, milestone). For HHH with VCdim(H)=d\mathrm{VCdim}(H)=dVCdim(H)=d, for all m∈Nm\in\mathbb Nm∈N: ΠH(m)≤∑i=0d(mi)\Pi_H(m) \le \sum_{i=0}^d\binom{m}{i}ΠH​(m)≤∑i=0d​(im​).

Corollary 3.19 — the mission's goal. For H⊆(X→{−1,+1})H\subseteq(X\to\{-1,+1\})H⊆(X→{−1,+1}) with VCdim(H)=d\mathrm{VCdim}(H)=dVCdim(H)=d and any δ>0\delta>0δ>0, with probability at least 1−δ1-\delta1−δ, for all h∈Hh\in Hh∈H:

R(h)≤R^S(h)+2dlog⁡(em/d)m+log⁡(1/δ)2m.R(h) \le \hat R_S(h) + \sqrt{\frac{2d\log(em/d)}{m}} + \sqrt{\frac{\log(1/\delta)}{2m}}.R(h)≤R^S​(h)+m2dlog(em/d)​​+2mlog(1/δ)​​.

Significance

Corollary 3.19 is the chapter's answer to the question chapter 2 leaves open: it is Theorem 2.13's direct infinite-hypothesis-set generalization, replacing log⁡∣H∣\log|H|log∣H∣ (undefined for infinite HHH) with the VC-dimension ddd (finite even for many infinite hypothesis sets, such as halfspaces in Rk\mathbb R^kRk, which have VC-dimension k+1k+1k+1). It is also the template every later margin bound in the book specializes (Chapters 5, 9, 10's SVM, multi-class and ranking margin bounds all replace this bound's uniform log⁡∣H∣\log|H|log∣H∣/VC-dimension term with a scale-sensitive complexity measure derived from the same Rademacher-complexity machinery), and Sauer's lemma is independently one of the most cited results in learning theory and extremal combinatorics. No prior art on the Prove2Me platform is faithful to any of this chapter's content: RademacherSymmetrization.radS_chernoff (Aether Catalog) proves a different, Massart-optimized Chernoff bound for the empirical Rademacher complexity of a finite class — a different object (empirical vs. population) with a different bound form from Theorem 3.3/3.5 — and sauerShelah_full proves only the trivial identity sauerShelahBound k k = 2^k, not Sauer's lemma itself. A further hit, sauer_shelah (Aether Catalog, Algebra/SauerShelah.lean), does state the Sauer-Shelah bound itself (F.card ≤ ∑_{i≤d} C(n,i) for a family F of subsets of Fin n shattering no set larger than d) — checked and not reused: it is a different idiom from Theorem 3.17 as this chunk needs it, a fixed finite ambient domain Fin n with F a Finset of its subsets directly, rather than the book's own growth function Π_H(m) (a supremum over point-tuples drawn from an arbitrary, possibly infinite X, Definition 3.6) that this chunk's other items and the goal (Corollary 3.19) are built on; reusing it would require either abandoning GrowthFunction/HasVCDim (needed faithfully by the goal itself) or a nontrivial reduction lemma this mission's budget does not include, so sauer_lemma is drafted fresh against this chunk's own GrowthFunction/HasVCDim. All ten items are drafted fresh.

Difficulty

Sauer's lemma's proof is a genuine two-parameter induction (on m+dm+dm+d) with a real combinatorial construction: restricting HHH to a sample SSS of size mmm, then splitting the restricted family into G1G_1G1​ (its restriction to the first m−1m-1m−1 points) and G2G_2G2​ (the concepts whose membership in GGG changes with the addition of the mmm-th point), with ∣G1∣+∣G2∣=∣G∣|G_1|+|G_2|=|G|∣G1​∣+∣G2​∣=∣G∣ and VCdim(G2)≤VCdim(G)−1\mathrm{VCdim}(G_2) \le \mathrm{VCdim}(G)-1VCdim(G2​)≤VCdim(G)−1 — a genuinely combinatorial argument, not a statement that unfolds by simp; a weaker restatement using only the trivial bound ΠH(m)≤2d\Pi_H(m)\le 2^dΠH​(m)≤2d would be true but is explicitly not what Theorem 3.17 states (BRIEF.md's named trivializing formalization for this chapter). Massart's lemma needs the expectation of a supremum over a finite set of 2m2^m2m-many sign patterns kept as an honest average, not silently replaced by a looser union bound. Corollary 3.19's own em/dem/dem/d term inside the logarithm needs the side condition d≤md\le md≤m carried through explicitly — Corollary 3.18's own domain restricts to m≥dm\ge dm≥d, and the bound is false, not merely unproved, without it (at m<dm<dm<d, em/dem/dem/d can be smaller than 111, making the logarithm negative).

Formalization scope

GeneralizationError/EmpiricalError are restated locally in this chunk's RademacherVC namespace (byte-identical in content to chunk 02-pac's own copies), since a draft item cannot import another chunk's draft module; this duplication is expected and will collapse once 02-pac is moderated, uploaded and listed as reusable in missions/README.md's "Published definitions" table. EmpiricalRademacherComplexity/Massart's lemma model the Rademacher signs σ as ranging over the finite type Fin m → Bool rather than a measure-theoretic i.i.d. process, so the "expectation over σ" in both is the exact finite uniform average over its 2^m outcomes — faithful and simpler than a MeasureTheory construction, since σ's distribution really is uniform on a finite set of outcomes for every finite m. GrowthFunction takes a tuple of m points (Fin m → X) rather than a size-m subset of X, a harmless generalization (repeated points never increase the dichotomy count) documented in the item's own docstring. HasVCDim is a Prop parametrized by the candidate dimension rather than a total ℕ/ℕ∞-valued function, so it does not cover the book's VCdim(H)=+\infty case (Examples 3.15-3.16); every theorem using it takes HasVCDim H d as an explicit hypothesis, matching the book's own "let H... with VCdim(H)=d." Theorem 3.3 adds an explicit measurability hypothesis on G (hGm) beyond the book's own displayed statement, needed to keep the Bochner integral ∫ z, g z ∂D from silently evaluating to 0 for a non-measurable g — this is the book's own standing assumption (footnote 3, p. 30) made an explicit hypothesis rather than an implicit one. No numerical constant in any of the four theorems is altered from the book's own; Corollary 3.19's side condition d ≤ m is kept explicit, per BRIEF.md's pitfall note.

Not formalized: Lemma 3.4 and Theorem 3.5 (the binary-classification specialization of Theorem 3.3 via the zero-one-loss identity R^S(G)=12R^SX(H)\hat R_S(G)=\frac12\hat R_{S_X}(H)R^S​(G)=21​R^SX​​(H)), Corollary 3.8 and Corollary 3.9 (the intermediate Rademacher-to-growth-function and growth-function generalization bounds), and Corollary 3.18 (the VC-dimension bound on the growth function, ΠH(m)≤(em/d)d\Pi_H(m)\le(em/d)^dΠH​(m)≤(em/d)d for m≥dm\ge dm≥d) — five intermediate results in the proof chain Theorem 3.3 → Theorem 3.5 → Corollary 3.8/3.9 → Sauer's lemma → Corollary 3.18 → Corollary 3.19 that are not independently drafted as milestones, per the budget guidance to keep a chunk to a goal plus its most load-bearing 3-8 milestones rather than every numbered result on the page; the three drafted milestones (Theorem 3.3, Massart's lemma, Sauer's lemma) are the chain's three genuinely distinct proof techniques (McDiarmid's inequality, a probabilistic-maximum bound, and a combinatorial induction), and the goal theorem's own statement is Corollary 3.19 exactly as displayed, not a restatement of any intermediate corollary. Radon's theorem (Theorem 3.13, background for the hyperplane VC-dimension example) and the worked VC-dimension examples (intervals, hyperplanes, rectangles, convex polygons, sine functions) are illustrations, not general results, and are not formalized — drafting only the example computations (e.g. VCdim(hyperplanes) = d+1) instead of the general finite-H machinery is exactly the trivializing formalization this mission avoids.

Selected references

  • M. Mohri, A. Rostamizadeh, A. Talwalkar, Foundations of Machine Learning, 2nd ed., MIT Press, 2018, Chapter 3.
  • V. Vapnik, A. Chervonenkis, "On the uniform convergence of relative frequencies of events to their probabilities," Theory of Probability and its Applications 16(2), 1971, 264-280.
  • N. Sauer, "On the density of families of sets," Journal of Combinatorial Theory, Series A 13(1), 1972, 145-147.
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ProbabilityStatisticsTheoretical Computer Science·Captain: mikedeng1

Foundations of Machine Learning I: The PAC Learning FrameworkTextbook

Motivation

How many labeled examples does a learning algorithm need to see before its output generalizes well to unseen data? Chapter 2 of Foundations of Machine Learning answers this question for the simplest nontrivial setting — a finite hypothesis set — and in doing so introduces the book's central object, the Probably Approximately Correct (PAC) learning framework: a distribution-free, high-probability guarantee relating a learner's sample size to the accuracy and confidence of its output. Every later chapter's generalization bound (VC-based, Rademacher-based, margin-based) is a variant of the same "probability of a bad event is small" argument this chapter proves in its most elementary form, so getting the chapter's core definitions and its two bracketing theorems (consistent and inconsistent finite-HHH) right is the foundation the rest of the book's guarantees build on.

Setting

A learner sees a sample S=(x1,…,xm)S = (x_1,\dots,x_m)S=(x1​,…,xm​) drawn i.i.d. from a fixed but unknown distribution DDD on an instance space XXX, labeled by an unknown target concept ccc drawn from a concept class CCC; a hypothesis hhh from a fixed hypothesis set HHH is judged by its generalization error R(h)=Pr⁡x∼D[h(x)≠c(x)]R(h) = \Pr_{x\sim D}[h(x)\ne c(x)]R(h)=Prx∼D​[h(x)=c(x)] (Definition 2.1) against its empirical error R^S(h)=1m∑i1h(xi)≠c(xi)\hat R_S(h) = \frac1m\sum_i \mathbb 1_{h(x_i)\ne c(x_i)}R^S​(h)=m1​∑i​1h(xi​)=c(xi​)​ (Definition 2.2) on the observed sample. A concept class is PAC-learnable (Definition 2.3) if some algorithm, given a polynomially-bounded number of samples, returns a hypothesis whose generalization error is at most ϵ\epsilonϵ with probability at least 1−δ1-\delta1−δ, for every accuracy ϵ\epsilonϵ and confidence δ\deltaδ and every distribution DDD — the "distribution-free" and "for all target concepts" character of the definition is what makes it a genuine worst-case learning guarantee rather than an average-case one tailored to a particular data-generating process.

Formalization targets

Theorem 2.5 (consistent case, milestone). If HHH is finite and algorithm AAA always returns a hypothesis consistent with the target concept on the training sample (R^S(hS)=0\hat R_S(h_S)=0R^S​(hS​)=0), then Pr⁡S∼Dm[R(hS)≤ϵ]≥1−δ\Pr_{S\sim D^m}[R(h_S)\le\epsilon]\ge1-\deltaPrS∼Dm​[R(hS​)≤ϵ]≥1−δ whenever m≥1ϵ(log⁡∣H∣+log⁡1δ)m \ge \frac1\epsilon(\log|H|+\log\frac1\delta)m≥ϵ1​(log∣H∣+logδ1​).

Corollary 2.11 (single-hypothesis Hoeffding bound, milestone). For a fixed hypothesis h:X→{0,1}h:X\to\{0,1\}h:X→{0,1} and any δ>0\delta>0δ>0, with probability at least 1−δ1-\delta1−δ, R(h)≤R^S(h)+log⁡(2/δ)/(2m)R(h) \le \hat R_S(h) + \sqrt{\log(2/\delta)/(2m)}R(h)≤R^S​(h)+log(2/δ)/(2m)​.

Theorem 2.13 (inconsistent case, goal). For a finite hypothesis set HHH and any δ>0\delta>0δ>0, with probability at least 1−δ1-\delta1−δ, simultaneously for every h∈Hh\in Hh∈H,

R(h)≤R^S(h)+log⁡∣H∣+log⁡(2/δ)2m.R(h) \le \hat R_S(h) + \sqrt{\frac{\log|H|+\log(2/\delta)}{2m}}.R(h)≤R^S​(h)+2mlog∣H∣+log(2/δ)​​.

Significance

Theorem 2.13 is the chapter's capstone because it removes Theorem 2.5's consistency requirement — the typical case in practice, where no hypothesis in HHH perfectly fits the training data — while paying only an additive log⁡∣H∣\log|H|log∣H∣ price inside the square root, via a union bound over HHH applied to Corollary 2.11's per-hypothesis concentration bound. It is also the template every later generalization bound in the book refines: Chapter 3 replaces log⁡∣H∣\log|H|log∣H∣ with the growth function / VC-dimension to handle infinite hypothesis sets, and Chapter 3's Rademacher-complexity bound is the direct machine-independent generalization of the same argument. No prior art on the Prove2Me platform is faithful to this chapter's PAC-learning content (GET /theorems?q=PAC-learnable returns no hits), so all six items are drafted fresh.

Difficulty

Theorem 2.13's own proof is a short combination of two ideas already present in the chapter (Corollary 2.11's Hoeffding bound plus a union bound over ∣H∣|H|∣H∣ hypotheses), but each ingredient carries its own faithfulness burden. Corollary 2.11 needs the sample SSS and the target hypothesis hhh kept in the right relationship — hhh fixed, SSS random — for the bound to be Hoeffding's inequality and not a vacuous statement about a random hypothesis. Theorem 2.13 needs the ∀h∈H\forall h\in H∀h∈H quantifier placed inside the probability event (a single sample SSS must work for every hhh at once), not outside it (which would only assert each hhh's bound holds with high probability for a sample chosen depending on hhh) — the difference between a uniform convergence bound and ∣H∣|H|∣H∣ separate, weaker statements. Definition 2.3's "polynomial function poly(⋅,⋅,⋅,⋅)\mathrm{poly}(\cdot,\cdot,\cdot,\cdot)poly(⋅,⋅,⋅,⋅)" is a genuine formalization judgment call, addressed below.

Formalization scope

GeneralizationError/EmpiricalError are typed generally over X,YX, YX,Y (matching Definition 2.1/2.2's own general statement, "h:X→Yh : X\to Yh:X→Y"), since Theorem 2.5 itself is stated for general YYY, not just Y=BoolY=\mathrm{Bool}Y=Bool; Corollary 2.11 and Theorem 2.13 specialize to h:X→Boolh : X\to\mathrm{Bool}h:X→Bool, matching their own explicit "h:X→{0,1}h:X\to\{0,1\}h:X→{0,1}" (Corollary 2.11) and the surrounding inconsistent-case section's restriction to binary classification. The i.i.d. sample S∼DmS\sim D^mS∼Dm is modeled as the identity random variable on the product-measure space (Fin m→X, Measure.pi(λ_. D))(\mathrm{Fin}\ m \to X,\ \mathrm{Measure.pi}(\lambda\_.\ D))(Fin m→X, Measure.pi(λ_. D)) in both Corollary 2.11 and Theorem 2.13, matching the book's own S∼DmS\sim D^mS∼Dm notation exactly. IsPACLearnable (Definition 2.3) makes "polynomial function" precise as a function bounded above by K⋅(a+b+n+s+1)kK\cdot(a+b+n+s+1)^kK⋅(a+b+n+s+1)k for some constants K>0K>0K>0, k∈Nk\in\mathbb Nk∈N, uniform in its (nonnegative) arguments — the standard reading of "polynomial in its arguments" in the absence of a ready-made multivariate polynomial-growth predicate in Mathlib; dropping this constraint entirely (stating only "there is some threshold function") would silently weaken Definition 2.3 to a strictly easier notion of learnability, since virtually any finite or well-behaved concept class admits some (possibly super-polynomial) sample-complexity threshold — this is exactly the distinction Example 2.7 (the universal concept class) uses to demonstrate a class that is not PAC-learnable despite admitting a consistent hypothesis set. No numerical constant in Theorem 2.5, Corollary 2.11 or Theorem 2.13 is altered from the book's own; no upper bound on δ\deltaδ is added anywhere the book itself leaves it unrestricted (the theorems remain true, if vacuous, for δ>1\delta>1δ>1). Not formalized: the "efficiently PAC-learnable" running-time clause of Definition 2.3 (a second, independent polynomial-time condition on AAA not needed by either milestone or the goal); Corollary 2.10 (the raw two-sided Hoeffding statement Corollary 2.11 is immediately derived from by solving for ϵ\epsilonϵ, making it redundant with Corollary 2.11 as a formalization target); the axis-aligned-rectangles worked example (Example 2.4–2.9), which illustrates the framework rather than proving a new general result, and the trivializing formalization this chapter invites — reusing Mathlib's rectangle machinery to encode only the specific two-dimensional geometric argument rather than the general finite-HHH theorems — is exactly what this mission avoids by drafting Theorems 2.5 and 2.13 in their general, hypothesis-set-agnostic form.

Selected references

  • M. Mohri, A. Rostamizadeh, A. Talwalkar, Foundations of Machine Learning, 2nd ed., MIT Press, 2018, Chapter 2.
  • W. Hoeffding, "Probability inequalities for sums of bounded random variables," Journal of the American Statistical Association 58(301), 1963, 13-30.
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Convex OptimizationOperations ResearchOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

First-Order and Stochastic Optimization Methods for Machine Learning VII: Gradient Sliding for Composite OptimizationTextbook

Motivation

Composite convex programs — objectives split into a smooth piece and a nonsmooth piece — are ubiquitous in data analysis: LASSO-type inverse problems, regularized empirical-risk minimization, and total-variation-type image reconstruction all minimize f(x)+h(x)+χ(x)f(x)+h(x)+\chi(x)f(x)+h(x)+χ(x) over a convex set, where fff is smooth (a data-fidelity term, often expensive to differentiate — a large matrix-vector product, a PDE solve, a black-box simulation), hhh is nonsmooth but structurally cheap (an ℓ1\ell_1ℓ1​-type penalty, a simple subgradient), and χ\chiχ enforces a "relatively simple" constraint absorbed into the proximal step. Classical accelerated proximal-gradient methods (Nesterov; Beck–Teboulle) solve such problems by computing ∇f\nabla f∇f and a subgradient h′h'h′ once per iteration, giving an optimal O(1/ε2)O(1/\varepsilon^2)O(1/ε2) bound on evaluations of both. But in every example above, the two oracle calls have wildly different costs, and paying for ∇f\nabla f∇f as often as for h′h'h′ is wasteful. Ghadimi, Lan and Zhang (SIAM J. Optim., 2014, arXiv:1406.5613, "Generalized Uniformly Optimal Methods for Nonlinear Programming") posed the resulting question: given separate first-order access to fff and hhh, can the number of ∇f\nabla f∇f-evaluations be reduced without inflating the (already-optimal) number of h′h'h′-evaluations? The gradient sliding (GS) algorithm formalized here, from Lan's textbook treatment (Chapter 8, building on Lan's own 2016 Mathematical Programming paper "Gradient sliding for composite optimization"), answers this in the affirmative: it "slides" past ∇f\nabla f∇f-evaluations on most iterations while still achieving the optimal O(1/ε2)O(1/\varepsilon^2)O(1/ε2) subgradient count for h′h'h′.

Setting

Fix a real inner-product space EEE and a closed convex set X⊆EX\subseteq EX⊆E. The composite problem is

Ψ∗≡min⁡x∈X{Ψ(x):=f(x)+h(x)+χ(x)},(8.1.1)\Psi^* \equiv \min_{x\in X}\{\Psi(x) := f(x)+h(x)+\chi(x)\}, \qquad (8.1.1)Ψ∗≡x∈Xmin​{Ψ(x):=f(x)+h(x)+χ(x)},(8.1.1)

where χ\chiχ is a "relatively simple" convex function (its own proximal step is assumed cheap), f:X→Rf:X\to\mathbb Rf:X→R is convex with LLL-Lipschitz gradient,

f(x)≤f(y)+⟨∇f(y),x−y⟩+L2∥x−y∥2,∀x,y∈X,(8.1.2)f(x)\le f(y)+\langle\nabla f(y),x-y\rangle+\tfrac L2\|x-y\|^2, \qquad \forall x,y\in X, \quad (8.1.2)f(x)≤f(y)+⟨∇f(y),x−y⟩+2L​∥x−y∥2,∀x,y∈X,(8.1.2)

and h:X→Rh:X\to\mathbb Rh:X→R is convex and MMM-Lipschitz-like in the sense that for every subgradient h′(y)∈∂h(y)h'(y)\in\partial h(y)h′(y)∈∂h(y),

h(x)≤h(y)+⟨h′(y),x−y⟩+M∥x−y∥,∀x,y∈X.(8.1.3)h(x)\le h(y)+\langle h'(y),x-y\rangle+M\|x-y\|, \qquad \forall x,y\in X. \quad (8.1.3)h(x)≤h(y)+⟨h′(y),x−y⟩+M∥x−y∥,∀x,y∈X.(8.1.3)

Let V(a,b)V(a,b)V(a,b) be a Bregman-type prox-function built from a 1-strongly-convex distance-generating function ν\nuν (Sect. 3.2), so V(a,b)≥12∥b−a∥2V(a,b)\ge\tfrac12\|b-a\|^2V(a,b)≥21​∥b−a∥2.

The gradient sliding (GS) algorithm (Algorithm 8.1) keeps an outer iterate xkx_kxk​, model point gk(⋅)≡lf(xk,⋅):=f(xk)+⟨∇f(xk),⋅−xk⟩g_k(\cdot)\equiv l_f(x_k,\cdot):=f(x_k)+\langle\nabla f(x_k),\cdot-x_k\ranglegk​(⋅)≡lf​(xk​,⋅):=f(xk​)+⟨∇f(xk​),⋅−xk​⟩, and running average xˉk\bar x_kxˉk​ (xˉ0=x0\bar x_0=x_0xˉ0​=x0​). Each outer step k=1,…,Nk=1,\dots,Nk=1,…,N delegates to the prox-sliding (PS) procedure: given the affine model gkg_kgk​, prox-center xk−1x_{k-1}xk−1​, parameter βk\beta_kβk​, and sliding length TkT_kTk​, PS runs TkT_kTk​ inner iterations

ut=arg⁡min⁡u∈X{g(u)+lh(ut−1,u)+βV(x,u)+βptV(ut−1,u)+χ(u)},u~t=(1−θt)u~t−1+θtut,(8.1.17)–(8.1.18)u_t = \arg\min_{u\in X}\{g(u)+l_h(u_{t-1},u)+\beta V(x,u)+\beta p_tV(u_{t-1},u)+\chi(u)\}, \qquad \tilde u_t = (1-\theta_t)\tilde u_{t-1}+\theta_tu_t, \quad (8.1.17)\text{--}(8.1.18)ut​=argu∈Xmin​{g(u)+lh​(ut−1​,u)+βV(x,u)+βpt​V(ut−1​,u)+χ(u)},u~t​=(1−θt​)u~t−1​+θt​ut​,(8.1.17)–(8.1.18)

where lh(y;u):=h(y)+⟨h′(y),u−y⟩l_h(y;u):=h(y)+\langle h'(y),u-y\ranglelh​(y;u):=h(y)+⟨h′(y),u−y⟩ (8.1.14), without ever recomputing ∇f\nabla f∇f during these TkT_kTk​ steps — the single affine model ggg is reused throughout. This is the mechanism by which GS "slides" past most ∇f\nabla f∇f-evaluations. PS returns (xk,x~k)(x_k,\tilde x_k)(xk​,x~k​), and the outer loop updates xˉk=(1−γk)xˉk−1+γkx~k\bar x_k=(1-\gamma_k)\bar x_{k-1}+\gamma_k\tilde x_kxˉk​=(1−γk​)xˉk−1​+γk​x~k​.

Formalization targets

Building block (Proposition 8.1)

β(1−Pt)−1V(ut,u)+[Φ(u~t)−Φ(u)]≤Pt(1−Pt)−1[βV(u0,u)+M22β∑i=1t(pi2Pi−1)−1],∀u∈X, t≥1,\beta(1-P_t)^{-1}V(u_t,u)+[\Phi(\tilde u_t)-\Phi(u)] \le P_t(1-P_t)^{-1}\Big[\beta V(u_0,u)+ \frac{M^2}{2\beta}\sum_{i=1}^t(p_i^2P_{i-1})^{-1}\Big], \quad \forall u\in X, \, t\ge1,β(1−Pt​)−1V(ut​,u)+[Φ(u~t​)−Φ(u)]≤Pt​(1−Pt​)−1[βV(u0​,u)+2βM2​i=1∑t​(pi2​Pi−1​)−1],∀u∈X,t≥1,

where Φ(u):=g(u)+h(u)+βV(x,u)+χ(u)\Phi(u):=g(u)+h(u)+\beta V(x,u)+\chi(u)Φ(u):=g(u)+h(u)+βV(x,u)+χ(u) and {pt},{θt},{Pt}\{p_t\},\{\theta_t\},\{P_t\}{pt​},{θt​},{Pt​} satisfy the recursion (8.1.20). This is the per-inner-iteration guarantee on how close (ut,u~t)(u_t,\tilde u_t)(ut​,u~t​) comes to solving Φ\PhiΦ's own minimization.

Intermediate (Theorem 8.1(a))

Assuming the PS schedule (8.1.20) and GS schedule conditions (8.1.25), (8.1.33) (the case where XXX may be unbounded),

Ψ(xˉN)−Ψ(x∗)≤ΓNβ11−PT1V(x0,x∗)+M2ΓN2∑k=1N∑i=1TkγkPTkΓkβk(1−PTk)pi2Pi−1,∀N≥1,\Psi(\bar x_N)-\Psi(x^*) \le \frac{\Gamma_N\beta_1}{1-P_{T_1}}V(x_0,x^*) + \frac{M^2\Gamma_N}{2}\sum_{k=1}^N\sum_{i=1}^{T_k}\frac{\gamma_kP_{T_k}} {\Gamma_k\beta_k(1-P_{T_k})p_i^2P_{i-1}}, \qquad \forall N\ge1,Ψ(xˉN​)−Ψ(x∗)≤1−PT1​​ΓN​β1​​V(x0​,x∗)+2M2ΓN​​k=1∑N​i=1∑Tk​​Γk​βk​(1−PTk​​)pi2​Pi−1​γk​PTk​​​,∀N≥1,

a general bound in terms of the abstract schedule, obtained by telescoping Proposition 8.1's guarantee (via Proposition 8.2's per-outer-step recursion, cited but not restated here) across outer iterations.

Goal (Corollary 8.1(a))

With the concrete schedule pt=t/2p_t=t/2pt​=t/2, θt=2(t+1)/(t(t+3))\theta_t=2(t+1)/(t(t+3))θt​=2(t+1)/(t(t+3)) (8.1.39), and, for a fixed horizon NNN and free parameter D~>0\tilde D>0D~>0,

βk=2Lk,γk=2k+1,Tk=⌈M2Nk2D~L2⌉,(8.1.40)\beta_k=\frac{2L}{k}, \qquad \gamma_k=\frac2{k+1}, \qquad T_k=\Big\lceil\frac{M^2Nk^2}{\tilde DL^2}\Big\rceil, \quad (8.1.40)βk​=k2L​,γk​=k+12​,Tk​=⌈D~L2M2Nk2​⌉,(8.1.40) Ψ(xˉN)−Ψ(x∗)≤2LN(N+1)[3V(x0,x∗)+2D~],∀N≥1.(8.1.41)\Psi(\bar x_N)-\Psi(x^*) \le \frac{2L}{N(N+1)}\big[3V(x_0,x^*)+2\tilde D\big], \qquad \forall N\ge1. \quad (8.1.41)Ψ(xˉN​)−Ψ(x∗)≤N(N+1)2L​[3V(x0​,x∗)+2D~],∀N≥1.(8.1.41)

This is the explicit-constant complexity bound: it is the weakest statement stable under changing L,M,N,D~L,M,N,\tilde DL,M,N,D~, obtained purely algebraically from Theorem 8.1(a)'s general bound once the schedule is plugged in.

Significance

Corollary 8.1(a), together with the schedule of TkT_kTk​, shows the total number of outer iterations — and hence ∇f\nabla f∇f-evaluations — needed for an ε\varepsilonε-solution is O(L/ε)O(L/ \varepsilon)O(L/ε), matching the optimal rate for smooth-only minimization (no penalty for the nonsmooth term's presence), while the total number of inner iterations ∑kTk\sum_kT_k∑k​Tk​ — and hence h′h'h′-evaluations — remains O(1/ε2)O(1/\varepsilon^2)O(1/ε2), the rate that is already known to be unimprovable for nonsmooth convex minimization. GS is thus the first method (per the section's own account) to decouple the two oracle costs at their respective optimal rates, rather than paying the worse of the two for both. This underlies later chapters' extensions (accelerated gradient sliding, decentralized optimization over networks) and is directly applicable whenever a composite objective's two components have asymmetric evaluation cost, as in the LASSO-type and regularized-loss examples above. Formalizing it contributes a machine-checked account of the telescoping/recursion argument across two nested loops (outer GS, inner PS) — a pattern distinct from the single-loop accelerated-gradient arguments already in this series (Chapters 3, 7) and not otherwise present in the corpus (q=gradient sliding, q=prox sliding, q=composite optimization all return zero hits as of 2026-09-18).

Difficulty

The obvious first idea — treat the PS procedure's inexact inner solve as adding an error term to a standard accelerated-gradient argument and bound that error by the number of inner steps — fails because a naive termination criterion (the function-value optimality gap of the PS subproblem) does not yield the accelerated rate; the book's own analysis (the paragraph preceding Proposition 8.1) states this explicitly. The working criterion instead combines the optimality gap and the distance to the optimal solution, weighted by the PtP_tPt​-sequence — this is exactly the left-hand side of (8.1.21), not a simpler quantity, and it is this specific combination that telescopes cleanly across both the inner PS loop and, subsequently, the outer GS loop.

Formalization scope

E is NormedAddCommGroup E, InnerProductSpace ℝ E; X : Set E. The Bregman divergence V, model function g/lh, and constraint function chi are hypothesis-carrying objects (functions with the defining (in)equalities as hypotheses), matching this series' convention rather than fixing them to the Euclidean/entropic special case. ps_procedure_bound (Proposition 8.1) takes the three-point inequality that the argmin in (8.1.17) yields (a standard consequence of Lemma 3.5, cited but not re-derived) as an explicit hypothesis on the sequence u, rather than proving well-posedness of the argmin itself. gs_convergence_bound (Theorem 8.1(a)) similarly takes Proposition 8.2's per-outer-step recursion (8.1.26) as a hypothesis — its own proof composes Proposition 8.1 with model-function inequalities (8.1.27)-(8.1.31) that are outside this mission's selected scope — and formalizes only part (a) (unbounded X), not part (b) (compact X, reverse monotonicity), since only (a) is on the goal's dependency path. explicit_gs_rate (Corollary 8.1(a)) uses the closed forms Pt=2/((t+1)(t+2))P_t=2/((t+1)(t+2))Pt​=2/((t+1)(t+2)) and Γk=2/(k(k+1))\Gamma_k=2/(k(k+1))Γk​=2/(k(k+1)) that the specific schedule (8.1.39)-(8.1.40) produces (8.1.44, 8.1.46 — cited, not restated), rather than the general recursion, and takes Theorem 8.1(a)'s bound, specialized to this schedule, as a hypothesis: its own content is the purely algebraic simplification (8.1.45)-(8.1.48) into the closed-form bound (8.1.41), not a re-derivation of the general theorem. The source PDF's own printed βk=2L/(νk)\beta_k=2L/(\nu k)βk​=2L/(νk) (8.1.40) is a text-extraction artifact (no such ν\nuν-indexed quantity appears anywhere in this section); the proof's own algebra (γkβk/(Γk(1−PTk))=2L/(1−PTk)\gamma_k\beta_k/(\Gamma_k(1-P_{T_k}))=2L/(1-P_{T_k})γk​βk​/(Γk​(1−PTk​​))=2L/(1−PTk​​), using Γk=2/(k(k+1))\Gamma_k=2/(k(k+1))Γk​=2/(k(k+1)), γk=2/(k+1)\gamma_k=2/(k+1)γk​=2/(k+1)) is consistent only with βk=2L/k\beta_k=2L/kβk​=2L/k, which is what is formalized. A trivializing formalization would fix h≡0h\equiv0h≡0 or χ≡0\chi\equiv0χ≡0, collapsing the composite problem to plain smooth minimization and making the entire PS-procedure apparatus vacuous; this is ruled out by keeping hhh and χ\chiχ as free convex functions throughout with hMLip an active, non-degenerate hypothesis. Proposition 8.2 (the recursion gs_convergence_bound cites) and Theorem 8.1(b) (the compact-X case) are natural extensions a further contribution could add.

Selected references

  • G. Lan, First-Order and Stochastic Optimization Methods for Machine Learning, Springer Series in the Data Sciences, 2020, Chapter 8. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-39568-1
  • G. Lan, Gradient sliding for composite optimization, Mathematical Programming 159 (2016), 201–235. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10107-015-0955-5
  • S. Ghadimi, G. Lan, H. Zhang, Generalized Uniformly Optimal Methods for Nonlinear Programming, Journal of Scientific Computing, 2019 (arXiv preprint 2015). arXiv:1406.5613
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Convex OptimizationOperations ResearchOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

First-Order and Stochastic Optimization Methods for Machine Learning V: Nonconvex Stochastic Mirror DescentTextbook

Motivation

Most machine learning training objectives — deep network losses, matrix factorization, regularized empirical risk with a nonconvex loss — are not convex, yet the great majority of convergence theory available before Ghadimi and Lan's 2013 work applied only to convex problems or gave no non-asymptotic rate at all. Ghadimi and Lan (2013) established the first non-asymptotic complexity bounds for stochastic first-order methods on smooth nonconvex problems, using the norm of a gradient mapping (rather than function-value suboptimality, which is meaningless without convexity) as the convergence measure, together with a randomized stopping rule that removes the need to know in advance which iterate will be best. This mission formalizes the constrained, composite generalization of that theory — Lan's own extension (2020) to problems with a nonsmooth term hhh and a general Bregman geometry rather than the Euclidean norm — culminating in the stochastic complexity bound for the randomized stochastic mirror descent (RSMD) algorithm.

Setting

Fix a nonempty closed convex X⊆RnX\subseteq\mathbb{R}^nX⊆Rn, a continuously differentiable (possibly nonconvex) f:X→Rf:X\to\mathbb{R}f:X→R with LLL-Lipschitz gradient, and a simple convex (possibly nonsmooth) h:X→Rh:X\to\mathbb{R}h:X→R (e.g. h=∥⋅∥1h=\|\cdot\|_1h=∥⋅∥1​ or h≡0h\equiv0h≡0); write Ψ:=f+h\Psi:=f+hΨ:=f+h, Ψ∗:=min⁡x∈XΨ(x)\Psi^*:=\min_{x\in X}\Psi(x)Ψ∗:=minx∈X​Ψ(x) (assumed finite). For a distance-generating function ν\nuν with modulus 1 and its prox-function V(z,x):=ν(x)−ν(z)−⟨∇ν(z),x−z⟩V(z,x):=\nu(x)-\nu(z)-\langle\nabla\nu(z),x-z\rangleV(z,x):=ν(x)−ν(z)−⟨∇ν(z),x−z⟩, the generalized projection at xxx with gradient-like input ggg and stepsize γ>0\gamma>0γ>0 is

x+:=arg⁡min⁡u∈X{⟨g,u⟩+1γV(x,u)+h(u)},PX(x,g,γ):=1γ(x−x+),x^+ := \arg\min_{u\in X}\Big\{\langle g,u\rangle + \tfrac1\gamma V(x,u) + h(u)\Big\}, \qquad P_X(x,g,\gamma) := \tfrac1\gamma(x-x^+),x+:=argu∈Xmin​{⟨g,u⟩+γ1​V(x,u)+h(u)},PX​(x,g,γ):=γ1​(x−x+),

which reduces to ∇f(x)\nabla f(x)∇f(x) itself when X=RnX=\mathbb{R}^nX=Rn and h≡0h\equiv0h≡0: PXP_XPX​ is a generalized projected gradient (or gradient mapping) of Ψ\PsiΨ at xxx, and its norm going to zero is the right notion of "approximately stationary" for the composite, possibly-nonconvex problem min⁡x∈XΨ(x)\min_{x\in X}\Psi(x)minx∈X​Ψ(x).

The randomized stochastic mirror descent (RSMD) algorithm, given only a stochastic first-order oracle returning G(x,ξ)G(x,\xi)G(x,ξ) with E[G(x,ξ)]=∇f(x)\mathbb{E}[G(x,\xi)]=\nabla f(x)E[G(x,ξ)]=∇f(x) and E[∥G(x,ξ)−∇f(x)∥2]≤σ2\mathbb{E}[\|G(x,\xi)- \nabla f(x)\|^2]\le\sigma^2E[∥G(x,ξ)−∇f(x)∥2]≤σ2 (Assumption 13), forms a mini-batch average GkG_kGk​ of mkm_kmk​ oracle calls at each step kkk, updates xk+1x_{k+1}xk+1​ via the generalized projection with g=Gkg=G_kg=Gk​, and stops at a randomly chosen index RRR (drawn from a prescribed pmf PRP_RPR​, independently of the optimization process) rather than a deterministic final iterate.

Formalization targets

Goal — Theorem 6.6(a), RSMD complexity

E[∥g~X,R∥2]≤LDΨ2+σ2∑k=1N(γk/mk)∑k=1N(γk−Lγk2),g~X,k:=PX(xk,Gk,γk),\mathbb{E}\big[\|\tilde g_{X,R}\|^2\big] \le \frac{LD_\Psi^2 + \sigma^2\sum_{k=1}^N(\gamma_k/ m_k)}{\sum_{k=1}^N(\gamma_k-L\gamma_k^2)}, \qquad \tilde g_{X,k}:=P_X(x_k,G_k,\gamma_k),E[∥g~​X,R​∥2]≤∑k=1N​(γk​−Lγk2​)LDΨ2​+σ2∑k=1N​(γk​/mk​)​,g~​X,k​:=PX​(xk​,Gk​,γk​),

for 0<γk≤1/L0<\gamma_k\le1/L0<γk​≤1/L (strict for at least one kkk) and PRP_RPR​ chosen as in (6.2.30), the expectation over both RRR and the oracle randomness ξ[N]\xi_{[N]}ξ[N]​.

Supporting milestones, in attack order

  • Lemma 6.4: ⟨g,PX(x,g,γ)⟩≥∥PX(x,g,γ)∥2+1γ[h(x+)−h(x)]\langle g,P_X(x,g,\gamma)\rangle \ge \|P_X(x,g,\gamma)\|^2 + \tfrac1\gamma[h(x^+) -h(x)]⟨g,PX​(x,g,γ)⟩≥∥PX​(x,g,γ)∥2+γ1​[h(x+)−h(x)] — the bound that lets a smoothness inequality on fff become a descent inequality on the whole composite Ψ\PsiΨ.
  • Lemma 6.6: the three-point characterization of x+x^+x+, the composite-problem analogue of Chapter 3's Lemma 3.4.
  • Theorem 6.5 (deterministic ancestor): ∥gX,R∥2≤LDΨ2/∑k=1N(γk−Lγk2/2)\|g_{X,R}\|^2 \le LD_\Psi^2/\sum_{k=1}^N(\gamma_k- L\gamma_k^2/2)∥gX,R​∥2≤LDΨ2​/∑k=1N​(γk​−Lγk2​/2) for the exact-gradient nonconvex MD algorithm.
  • Corollary 6.4: the constant-stepsize instantiation ∥gX,R∥2≤2L2DΨ2/N\|g_{X,R}\|^2\le2L^2D_\Psi^2/N∥gX,R​∥2≤2L2DΨ2​/N.

Every result states its constants exactly as the book derives them; no milestone or the goal hides a rate behind an unspecified O(⋅)O(\cdot)O(⋅).

Significance

The goal theorem gives the complexity of the RSMD algorithm in terms of a squared generalized gradient-mapping norm — the correct convergence criterion for constrained, composite, possibly nonconvex stochastic optimization, since function-value suboptimality is not controllable without convexity and unconstrained gradient norms are meaningless once X≠RnX\ne\mathbb{R}^nX=Rn or hhh is nonsmooth. Choosing mkm_kmk​ and NNN appropriately (a corollary this mission does not formalize) turns this bound into the celebrated O(σ2/ε2)O(\sigma^2/\varepsilon^2)O(σ2/ε2) total-oracle-call complexity for finding an ε\varepsilonε-stationary point in expectation — the standard benchmark every later stochastic nonconvex method (variance-reduced SGD, SPIDER, and their composite/constrained variants) is compared against.

No result in this mission has a machine-checked proof on Prove2Me under this exact hypothesis set. The two closest platform results, both from lean-optrates (Shi), are genuinely different objects: ShiOptRates.gd_exact_rate is plain, unconstrained, deterministic gradient descent (xk+1=xk−L−1g(xk)x_{k+1}=x_k-L^{-1}g(x_k)xk+1​=xk​−L−1g(xk​), no set XXX, no composite hhh, no generalized projection), and ShiOptRates.Stochastic.sgd_rate is plain SGD under the same unconstrained, non-composite setup — its filtration/conditional-expectation formalization pattern (a Filtration ℕ, μ[·|ℱ k] for the unbiasedness and variance-bound hypotheses) is the same one this mission's goal theorem uses, confirming it as the platform's established idiom for this class of result, but the mathematical content (plain gradient step vs. generalized-projection/mirror-descent step, no XXX or hhh) is different. Neither is reused; both are noted as the platform's nearest existing work.

Difficulty

The generalized projection x+x^+x+ replaces the Euclidean projection with an arbitrary Bregman-based prox-mapping and absorbs the nonsmooth term hhh directly into the subproblem — a formalization that quietly assumes h≡0h\equiv0h≡0 or X=RnX=\mathbb{R}^nX=Rn would collapse every milestone here into the ∇f(x)\nabla f(x)∇f(x) special case and prove nothing about the constrained composite problem the chapter is actually about. The harder difficulty is in the goal theorem's own randomness: the book's proof does not use an unconditional (marginal) form of Assumption 13, because from step 2 onward xkx_kxk​ is itself a random variable (a function of the history ξ[k−1]\xi_{[k-1]}ξ[k−1]​), so the cross-term E[⟨δk,gX,k⟩]\mathbb{E}[\langle\delta_k,g_{X,k}\rangle]E[⟨δk​,gX,k​⟩] the proof needs to vanish requires a conditional statement — "E[⟨δk,gX,k⟩∣ξ[k−1]]=0\mathbb{E}[\langle\delta_k,g_{X,k}\rangle\mid\xi_{[k-1]}]=0E[⟨δk​,gX,k​⟩∣ξ[k−1]​]=0" is the book's own phrasing. A formalization using only marginal moment bounds would either be unprovable as stated or, worse, would misstate the theorem by using hypotheses too weak for the claimed conclusion.

Formalization scope

generalized_projection_gradient_bound, generalized_projection_characterization, nonconvex_md_bound and nonconvex_md_rate are stated over a real inner product space (Chapter 6's own generality — unlike Chapter 3, §6.2.3 explicitly restricts to "the norm associated with the inner product"), with every argmin-defined point (x+x^+x+, and the iterate sequence xkx_kxk​) represented by its pointwise minimality property rather than an argmin term, consistent with this series' convention. The goal theorem, rsmd_complexity_bound, additionally introduces a probability space (Ω,P) and a Mathlib Filtration ℕ 𝒢, with x k/G k required 𝒢(k-1)-strongly-measurable and Assumption 13 stated via MeasureTheory.condExp (𝒢 (k-1)) (conditional mean 0, conditional second moment ≤ σ²/m_k) — the conditional form the book's own proof actually needs, not a weaker marginal substitute. The σ²/m_k bound is (6.2.40)'s conclusion for the m_k-sample batch average, taken as a hypothesis on the already-averaged G k directly rather than re-derived from m_k raw i.i.d. calls (that derivation is not itself a numbered result of the book). RRR's independence from the process is stated via ProbabilityTheory.IndepFun; every integrability side condition the conclusion's Bochner integral needs to be non-vacuous is stated explicitly, guarding against the well-known trap of an uninhabited/non-integrable hypothesis silently defaulting condExp/the integral to 0 and making the theorem trivially true.

A trivializing formalization this mission rules out: taking X=RnX=\mathbb{R}^nX=Rn and h≡0h\equiv0h≡0 throughout would make every generalized projection collapse to the ordinary gradient, reducing this entire mission to a restatement of plain (stochastic) gradient descent — exactly the ShiOptRates results already on the platform — rather than the constrained composite theory the chapter develops; XXX, hhh and VVV are kept as genuine free parameters in every milestone and the goal.

Left out of scope, for time: Theorem 6.6(b) (the convex-case corollary on E[Ψ(xR)−Ψ(x∗)]\mathbb{E}[\Psi (x_R)-\Psi(x^*)]E[Ψ(xR​)−Ψ(x∗)], requiring the nondecreasing/nonincreasing stepsize side-conditions of (6.2.33)/(6.2.35)); the raw-sample derivation of (6.2.40); Lemma 6.3 (the stationarity consequence of a small gradient mapping, using ∂h\partial h∂h and the normal cone NXN_XNX​); the 2-RSMD algorithm and its large-deviation improvement; and the gradient-free (RSMDF) variant.

Selected references

  • G. Lan, First-Order and Stochastic Optimization Methods for Machine Learning, Springer Series in the Data Sciences, Springer 2020, §6.2. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-39568-1
  • S. Ghadimi and G. Lan, "Stochastic First- and Zeroth-Order Methods for Nonconvex Stochastic Programming," SIAM Journal on Optimization, 23(4), 2013, pp. 2341–2368.
  • S. Ghadimi, G. Lan and H. Zhang, "Mini-batch Stochastic Approximation Methods for Nonconvex Stochastic Composite Optimization," Mathematical Programming, 155(1–2), 2016, pp. 267–305 (the RSMD algorithm's original source).
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Convex OptimizationOperations ResearchOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

First-Order and Stochastic Optimization Methods for Machine Learning II: Subgradient Descent, Mirror Descent and Accelerated Gradient DescentTextbook

Motivation

Gradient descent's convergence rate for a general smooth convex problem is O(1/k)O(1/k)O(1/k) in the function-value gap; Nemirovski and Yudin (1983) proved that no first-order method can do better than O(1/k2)O(1/k^2)O(1/k2) is achievable, and Nesterov (1983, 1988, 2004) constructed the first method attaining it — the accelerated (or "fast") gradient method. For thirty years this was the standard route to O(1/k2)O(1/k^2)O(1/k2)-rate solvers in convex optimization, and the technique underlies essentially every modern accelerated first-order method used at scale in machine learning (accelerated SGD, momentum methods, Nesterov-style extensions of Adam). The two building blocks this mission formalizes on the way there — subgradient descent (Polyak, 1960s) and mirror descent (Nemirovski & Yudin, 1983) — are themselves the default tools whenever the objective is nonsmooth or the constraint set's natural geometry is not Euclidean (e.g. the probability simplex, where mirror descent with the entropic distance-generating function beats projected subgradient descent by a n/ln⁡n\sqrt{n/\ln n}n/lnn​ factor).

Setting

Fix a nonempty closed convex set XXX (in Lean: a normed real vector space EEE, X : Set E) and a convex f:X→Rf : X \to \mathbb{R}f:X→R; write f∗:=min⁡x∈Xf(x)f^* := \min_{x\in X} f(x)f∗:=minx∈X​f(x) and x∗x^*x∗ for an arbitrary minimizer. The projected-subgradient update is xt+1:=arg⁡min⁡x∈Xγt⟨g(xt),x⟩+12∥x−xt∥22x_{t+1} := \arg\min_{x\in X}\gamma_t\langle g(x_t),x\rangle + \tfrac12\|x-x_t\|_2^2xt+1​:=argminx∈X​γt​⟨g(xt​),x⟩+21​∥x−xt​∥22​ for a subgradient g(xt)∈∂f(xt)g(x_t)\in\partial f(x_t)g(xt​)∈∂f(xt​) and stepsize γt>0\gamma_t>0γt​>0. Its generalization, mirror descent, replaces the Euclidean proximal term with a Bregman divergence V(x,z):=ν(z)−ν(x)−⟨∇ν(x),z−x⟩V(x,z) := \nu(z) - \nu(x) - \langle\nabla\nu(x),z-x\rangleV(x,z):=ν(z)−ν(x)−⟨∇ν(x),z−x⟩ built from a 1-strongly-convex distance-generating function ν\nuν with respect to a general norm ∥⋅∥\|\cdot\|∥⋅∥ (dual norm ∥⋅∥∗\|\cdot\|_*∥⋅∥∗​): xt+1:=arg⁡min⁡x∈Xγtgt(x)+V(xt,x)x_{t+1} := \arg\min_{x\in X}\gamma_t g_t(x) + V(x_t,x)xt+1​:=argminx∈X​γt​gt​(x)+V(xt​,x), where gtg_tgt​ is now a continuous linear functional (a subgradient in the dual space, since the norm need not come from an inner product). Choosing ν(x)=∥x∥22/2\nu(x)=\|x\|_2^2/2ν(x)=∥x∥22​/2 recovers V(x,z)=∥z−x∥22/2V(x,z) = \|z-x\|_2^2/2V(x,z)=∥z−x∥22​/2 and the plain subgradient update as a special case.

The accelerated gradient method additionally assumes fff has LLL-Lipschitz gradient (f(y)−f(x)−⟨f′(x),y−x⟩≤L2∥y−x∥2f(y)-f(x)-\langle f'(x),y-x\rangle \le \tfrac{L}{2}\|y-x\|^2f(y)−f(x)−⟨f′(x),y−x⟩≤2L​∥y−x∥2) and is μ\muμ-generalized-strongly-convex w.r.t. VVV (f(x)+⟨f′(x),y−x⟩+μV(x,y)≤f(y)f(x)+\langle f'(x),y-x\rangle+\mu V(x,y)\le f(y)f(x)+⟨f′(x),y−x⟩+μV(x,y)≤f(y) for μ≥0\mu\ge0μ≥0), and tracks three coupled sequences from (x0,xˉ0)∈X×X(x_0,\bar x_0)\in X\times X(x0​,xˉ0​)∈X×X:

x~t=(1−qt)xˉt−1+qtxt−1,xt=arg⁡min⁡x∈X{γt[⟨f′(x~t),x⟩+μV(x~t,x)]+V(xt−1,x)},xˉt=(1−αt)xˉt−1+αtxt.\tilde x_t = (1-q_t)\bar x_{t-1}+q_tx_{t-1},\quad x_t = \arg\min_{x\in X}\{\gamma_t[\langle f'(\tilde x_t),x\rangle+\mu V(\tilde x_t,x)]+V(x_{t-1},x)\},\quad \bar x_t = (1-\alpha_t)\bar x_{t-1}+\alpha_tx_t.x~t​=(1−qt​)xˉt−1​+qt​xt−1​,xt​=argx∈Xmin​{γt​[⟨f′(x~t​),x⟩+μV(x~t​,x)]+V(xt−1​,x)},xˉt​=(1−αt​)xˉt−1​+αt​xt​.

Formalization targets

Goal — Theorem 3.6, closed-form rate

With qt=αt=2t+1q_t=\alpha_t=\tfrac{2}{t+1}qt​=αt​=t+12​, γt=t2L\gamma_t=\tfrac{t}{2L}γt​=2Lt​ and μ=0\mu=0μ=0:

f(xˉk)−f(x∗)≤4Lk(k+1)V(x0,x∗).f(\bar x_k) - f(x^*) \le \frac{4L}{k(k+1)}V(x_0,x^*).f(xˉk​)−f(x∗)≤k(k+1)4L​V(x0​,x∗).

Supporting milestones, in attack order

  • Lemma 3.1 / Theorem 3.1 (Euclidean case): the three-point inequality for the plain projected-subgradient step, and the resulting ∑tγt[f(xt)−f(x)]≤12(∥x−xs∥22+M2∑tγt2)\sum_t \gamma_t[f(x_t)-f(x)] \le \tfrac12(\|x-x_s\|_2^2 + M^2\sum_t\gamma_t^2)∑t​γt​[f(xt​)−f(x)]≤21​(∥x−xs​∥22​+M2∑t​γt2​) bound under MMM-Lipschitz fff.
  • Lemma 3.4 / Theorem 3.5 (general-norm mirror descent): the same two results with the squared Euclidean distance replaced by VVV and the Euclidean norm by a general dual pair ∥⋅∥,∥⋅∥∗\|\cdot\|,\|\cdot\|_*∥⋅∥,∥⋅∥∗​.
  • Proposition 3.1: the one-step accelerated-method recursion f(xˉt)−f(x)+αt(μ+1/γt)V(xt,x)≤(1−αt)[f(xˉt−1)−f(x)]+(αt/γt)V(xt−1,x)f(\bar x_t)-f(x)+\alpha_t(\mu+ 1/\gamma_t)V(x_t,x) \le (1-\alpha_t)[f(\bar x_{t-1})-f(x)]+(\alpha_t/\gamma_t)V(x_{t-1},x)f(xˉt​)−f(x)+αt​(μ+1/γt​)V(xt​,x)≤(1−αt​)[f(xˉt−1​)−f(x)]+(αt​/γt​)V(xt−1​,x).
  • Theorem 3.6, general form: Proposition 3.1's recursion telescoped across t=1,…,kt=1,\dots,kt=1,…,k (with μ=0\mu=0μ=0) into a single two-term bound relating step kkk to step 000.

Every constant here is exactly the book's; no milestone hides an O(⋅)O(\cdot)O(⋅) behind an unspecified absolute constant.

Significance

The chain culminates in an explicit, non-asymptotic O(1/k2)O(1/k^2)O(1/k2) certificate for accelerated gradient descent — the theoretically optimal rate for smooth convex minimization by a first-order method (matching the Nemirovski–Yudin lower bound, not re-derived here). Formalizing it forces every implicit convention in a standard optimization-course derivation to become explicit: which of the three sequences xt,x~t,xˉtx_t,\tilde x_t,\bar x_txt​,x~t​,xˉt​ a given quantity refers to, exactly which inequality (3.3.7)-(3.3.9) each specific stepsize schedule needs to satisfy, and the precise index range over which the chapter's own stated hypotheses actually get used in its own proof (see Difficulty below).

None of these six results (or their strongly-convex counterpart, Theorem 3.7, left for future work — see Formalization scope) has a machine-checked proof on Prove2Me. The one theorem with the same name as this mission's subject, BanditAlgorithm.mirror_descent_regret_bound (Lattimore & Szepesvári, Theorem 28.4), is a different object: an online, adversarial regret bound against a changing sequence of loss vectors yty_tyt​, not an offline function-value gap for a single fixed fff; not reused. Likewise OnlineConvexOpt.FirstOrder.online_gradient_descent_regret (Hazan) and OnlineConvexOpt.ConvexBasics.constrained_gd_well_conditioned_convergence are, respectively, an online-regret bound and a plain-gradient-descent (non-accelerated) linear-rate result — checked and confirmed not reusable per the mission brief.

Difficulty

The three-point inequalities (Lemmas 3.1/3.4) are routine consequences of a strongly-convex minimizer's optimality condition. The real difficulty is bookkeeping across three coupled sequences in the accelerated method: a formalization using only xtx_txt​ and xˉt\bar x_txˉt​ (dropping x~t\tilde x_tx~t​, the point at which the gradient is actually evaluated) is not Lan's algorithm and proves either a false or a different bound — x~t\tilde x_tx~t​ is what lets the method use a gradient computed at a point between xt−1x_{t-1}xt−1​ and xˉt−1\bar x_{t-1}xˉt−1​, which is exactly the extrapolation step that makes acceleration work.

A second, subtler difficulty is that Theorem 3.6's own stated hypothesis — "(3.3.15) for any t=1,…,kt=1,\dots,kt=1,…,k" — is not quite what its proof uses. Telescoping Proposition 3.1's per-step bound via (3.3.15) requires the previous step's constants γt−1,αt−1\gamma_{t-1},\alpha_{t-1}γt−1​,αt−1​; at t=1t=1t=1 these would be γ0,α0\gamma_0,\alpha_0γ0​,α0​, values the recursion (3.3.4)-(3.3.6) never defines (it only ever uses qt,γt,αtq_t,\gamma_t,\alpha_tqt​,γt​,αt​ for t≥1t\ge1t≥1). The book's own proof, read closely, invokes (3.3.15) only for t=2,…,kt=2,\dots,kt=2,…,k, with t=1t=1t=1 handled directly by Proposition 3.1's conclusion connecting xˉ1,x1\bar x_1,x_1xˉ1​,x1​ to the given base data xˉ0,x0\bar x_0,x_0xˉ0​,x0​. Formalizing the literal hypothesis range would either be unstatable (no γ0,α0\gamma_0,\alpha_0γ0​,α0​ exist) or vacuous (adding unused ghost parameters); this mission states the range the proof actually needs.

Formalization scope

Chapter 3's own §3.1/§3.2 split (Euclidean vs. general norm) is preserved rather than collapsed: subgradient_iterate_three_point/subgradient_descent_bound are stated over a real inner product space with the vector subgradient g(xt)∈Eg(x_t)\in Eg(xt​)∈E and the Euclidean norm, exactly matching §3.1; mirror_iterate_three_point/mirror_descent_bound and the two accelerated-method milestones are stated over a general real normed space [NormedAddCommGroup E] [NormedSpace ℝ E], with subgradients as continuous linear functionals E →L[ℝ] ℝ (whose Mathlib operator norm is already the dual norm ∥⋅∥∗\|\cdot\|_*∥⋅∥∗​, needing no separate definition) and the Bregman divergence V:E→E→RV : E \to E \to \mathbb{R}V:E→E→R left as a free two-point function — but, following a 2026-09-19 revision, no longer a totally free function. V is now required to satisfy the two facts (3.2.2)/(3.2.3)/(3.2.6) actually establish and every downstream proof (Lemma 3.4, Theorem 3.5, Proposition 3.1, Theorem 3.6) uses: nonnegativity (V(x,z)≥0V(x,z)\ge 0V(x,z)≥0 for x,z∈Xx,z\in Xx,z∈X) and the three-point/cosine identity V(x,z)=V(x,y)+⟨∇V(x,⋅)(y),z−y⟩+V(y,z)V(x,z) = V(x,y) + \langle\nabla V(x,\cdot)(y), z-y\rangle + V(y,z)V(x,z)=V(x,y)+⟨∇V(x,⋅)(y),z−y⟩+V(y,z), the latter made explicit via an added parameter dV : E → E → (E →L[ℝ] ℝ) read as "the gradient of V(x,⋅)V(x,\cdot)V(x,⋅) at yyy." Without these two hypotheses the five items that use an abstract V (mirror_iterate_three_point, mirror_descent_bound, accelerated_one_step_recursion, accelerated_gradient_recursion_bound, accelerated_gradient_rate) are false as stated — a constant V satisfies the bare pointwise-minimality hypotheses while violating the conclusion, as two worked counterexamples confirmed. This mission does not derive V/dV from an explicit distance-generating function ν\nuν (the heavier, fully book-literal route (3.2.1)-(3.2.2) would); it takes the two facts the proofs actually consume as hypotheses directly, which is lighter and sufficient. Satisfiability is witnessed by the Euclidean case already in §3.1: ν(x)=∥x∥2/2\nu(x)=\|x\|^2/2ν(x)=∥x∥2/2, V(x,z)=∥z−x∥22/2V(x,z)=\|z-x\|_2^2/2V(x,z)=∥z−x∥22​/2, dV x y=⟨y−x,⋅⟩dV\,x\,y = \langle y-x,\cdot\rangledVxy=⟨y−x,⋅⟩, exactly how subgradient_iterate_three_point/subgradient_descent_bound already handle the Euclidean special case. A trivializing formalization this mission rules out: specializing VVV to the Euclidean squared distance in mirror_iterate_three_point/mirror_descent_bound would make those two milestones restatements of the §3.1 Euclidean results rather than genuine generalizations, exactly the pitfall the chapter brief flags.

Every argmin-defined iterate (xt+1x_{t+1}xt+1​ in each of the three update rules) is represented by its defining pointwise-minimality property rather than by an IsMinOn/argmin term, so no existence or uniqueness lemma for the underlying minimization problem is needed anywhere in this mission — matching how the book's own proofs use these updates (via their first-order optimality condition, never via an explicit formula for the minimizer).

Left out of scope, for time: Theorem 3.7 (the strongly-convex, μ>0\mu>0μ>0 linear-rate companion to Theorem 3.6, sharing Proposition 3.1 as its own base lemma) and Corollary 3.5 (the composite-objective extension f=f^+Ff=\hat f+Ff=f^​+F). Both are natural continuations reusing this mission's accelerated_one_step_recursion; a later mission or an amendment to this one could add them as additional milestones/goals without touching what is here.

Selected references

  • G. Lan, First-Order and Stochastic Optimization Methods for Machine Learning, Springer Series in the Data Sciences, Springer 2020, Chapter 3. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-39568-1
  • Y. Nesterov, "A method for solving the convex programming problem with convergence rate O(1/k2)O(1/k^2)O(1/k2)," Doklady AN SSSR, 269, 1983, pp. 543–547.
  • Y. Nesterov, Introductory Lectures on Convex Optimization, Springer, 2004.
  • A. Nemirovski and D. Yudin, Problem Complexity and Method Efficiency in Optimization, Wiley, 1983 (source of the mirror-descent method and the O(1/k2)O(1/k^2)O(1/k2) lower bound for smooth convex optimization).
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Convex OptimizationOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Introduction to Online Convex Optimization XIII: Blackwell's Approachability Theorem and Online Convex OptimizationTextbook

Motivation

Von Neumann's minimax theorem (Chapter VIII) settles two-player zero-sum games with scalar payoffs. In 1956, Blackwell asked the natural generalization: what can a player guarantee in a repeated game with vector-valued payoffs, where "winning" means driving the average payoff into a target set rather than above a target value? For decades the resulting theory — approachability — and the regret-minimization theory this book develops were believed to be different, with approachability seen as the stronger notion. Chapter 13 closes that gap: approachability and online convex optimization are shown to be algorithmically equivalent, each reducible to the other with no loss of efficiency, and along the way this equivalence yields a constructive, rate-quantified proof of Blackwell's own theorem.

Setting

A generalized vector game (Definition 13.2) is given by bounded convex closed decision sets K1,K2K_1,K_2K1​,K2​ and a vector payoff u:K1×K2→Rdu:K_1\times K_2\to\mathbb R^du:K1​×K2​→Rd. A set SSS is approachable (Definition 13.3) if some non-anticipating algorithm, playing in K1K_1K1​ against any sequence y1,y2,⋯∈K2y_1,y_2,\dots\in K_2y1​,y2​,⋯∈K2​, drives the average payoff's distance to SSS to zero. Blackwell's theorem (13.4) characterizes exactly which SSS are approachable via a purely geometric condition: every column-player strategy yyy admits a row-player best response xxx landing the payoff in SSS.

Section 13.2 constructs an explicit approachability algorithm from any OCO algorithm: given a best-response oracle realizing Blackwell's condition, Algorithm 37 runs the OCO algorithm on the proxy losses ft(w)=w⊤ut−1−hS(w)f_t(w) = w^\top u_{t-1} - h_S(w)ft​(w)=w⊤ut−1​−hS​(w) (the support function hS(w)=max⁡x∈S{w⊤x}h_S(w)=\max_{x\in S}\{w^\top x\}hS​(w)=maxx∈S​{w⊤x} letting distance-to-SSS be written, via Lemma 13.5's minimax duality, as a convex optimization problem over the unit ball), queries the oracle at the OCO algorithm's play wtw_twt​, and averages the resulting rewards.

Formalization targets

Theorem 13.7 (OCO-to-approachability rate, milestone)

Dist(uˉT,S)≤RegretT(A)T.\mathrm{Dist}(\bar u_T, S) \le \frac{\mathrm{Regret}_T(A)}{T}.Dist(uˉT​,S)≤TRegretT​(A)​.

Theorem 13.4 — the mission's goal (sufficiency direction only)

(∀y∈K2, ∃x∈K1, u(x,y)∈S)  ⟹  S is approachable.\big(\forall y\in K_2,\ \exists x\in K_1,\ u(x,y)\in S\big) \implies S\ \text{is approachable}.(∀y∈K2​, ∃x∈K1​, u(x,y)∈S)⟹S is approachable.

Significance

This chapter's headline claim — approachability and OCO are equivalent — is proved in two directions in the book (§13.2 and §13.3); this mission drafts the direction the book itself foregrounds as "the more interesting implication" and constructively proves: any sublinear-regret OCO algorithm converts directly into an explicit approachability algorithm with an explicit convergence rate, giving a self-contained, algorithmic proof of a 1956 game-theory theorem using 1990s–2000s online-learning machinery. Historically, this equivalence resolved a standing misconception (approachability believed strictly stronger) and reframes Blackwell's theorem as a special case of regret minimization rather than a separate theory requiring its own toolkit. No prior art was found on the platform for Blackwell approachability (planning search: q=Blackwell — the one hit, PRNGCompression.prng_no_free_lunch's cousin, an unrelated Rao-Blackwellization result, is not a substitute); this mission drafts both items fresh.

Difficulty

Theorem 13.4's statement is a clean geometric implication, but the book is explicit that its proof is entirely carried by Theorem 13.7 plus an unstated "explicit conclusion" left as an exercise (the passage from a finite-horizon rate bound to the asymptotic Dist → 0 claim, using any of the book's own sublinear-regret OCO algorithms as a witness). Theorem 13.7's own proof combines three nontrivial facts: Lemma 13.5's minimax-duality rewriting of Dist(⋅,S)\mathrm{Dist}(\cdot, S)Dist(⋅,S) as a linear optimization over the unit ball (itself proved via Sion's minimax theorem, not excerpted here), the best-response oracle's defining inequality (13.2) applied pointwise at each round's wtw_twt​, and the OCO algorithm's own regret guarantee applied to the specific proxy-loss sequence ftf_tft​ built from the realized game trajectory — a genuine composition of three separate pieces of machinery from earlier in the book (Chapters III–VIII), not a routine substitution.

Formalization scope

IsApproachable is declared as its own definition (per BRIEF.md's explicit instruction, since Theorem 13.4 depends on it), with the non-anticipation clause made explicit (matching the series' IsOnlineAlgorithm convention from Chunk 03) even though the book's own Definition 13.3 states it only informally ("x_t ← A(y_1,\dots,y_{t-1})"). SupportFunction is h_S exactly as displayed, as a real supremum (a genuine maximum given the chapter's standing "closed, bounded" hypothesis on S). Dist(⋅,S)\mathrm{Dist}(\cdot,S)Dist(⋅,S) throughout is Euclidean distance, rendered as Mathlib's Metric.infDist — confirmed the chapter uses no other distance notion (checked §13.1-13.3 directly, per the pitfall BRIEF.md flags). Theorem 13.7 transcribes Algorithm 37's ft(w)=w⊤ut−1−hS(w)f_t(w)=w^\top u_{t-1}-h_S(w)ft​(w)=w⊤ut−1​−hS​(w) construction faithfully, including its one-round offset (using the previous round's realized reward to build the current round's proxy loss, while the conclusion averages the current round's rewards) — exactly as the book's own pseudocode has it, not smoothed over.

Scope decision on Theorem 13.4's biconditional. The book states Theorem 13.4 as an ↔ but proves, and explicitly flags as proved, only the sufficiency direction (←): "The necessity of this condition is left as an exercise... Our reductions henceforth give an explicit proof of Blackwell's theorem [meaning: of the sufficiency direction]." Per CAPTAIN_BRIEF.md rule 6 and BRIEF.md's explicit instruction, this mission drafts only that direction, named as such in the goal item's own docstring; see STATUS.md.

Not formalized (out of scope for this mission, given the remaining budget and the explicit "exercise" status of several results on these pages): the necessity direction of Theorem 13.4; Lemma 13.5 (minimax duality for Dist, itself relying on Sion's theorem, not separately formalized here); Lemma 13.6 (the equivalent best-response-oracle condition); §13.3's entire approachability-to-OCO direction (Theorem 13.9, Lemma 13.8, the cone/polar-cone machinery of §13.3.1) and §13.3.3 (existence of a best-response oracle for the constructed set); the "explicit conclusion" of Blackwell's theorem from Theorem 13.7, left as an exercise by the book itself.

Selected references

  • E. Hazan, Introduction to Online Convex Optimization, 2nd ed., arXiv:1909.05207v3, Chapter 13.
  • D. Blackwell, "An analog of the minimax theorem for vector payoffs," Pacific Journal of Mathematics 6(1), 1956, 1-8.
  • N. Abernethy, P. Bartlett, E. Hazan, "Blackwell approachability and no-regret learning are equivalent," COLT 2011.
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Convex OptimizationOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Introduction to Online Convex Optimization XII: The Online Boosting MethodTextbook

Motivation

Chapter XI boosted a weak learner into a strong one for a single offline fit to a fixed sample. Chapter 12 asks the analogous question online: when the pool of experts is too large to run Hedge over directly (the contextual-learning setting, where "experts" are policies mapping contexts to actions and their number is exponential), can black-box access to a cheap approximate — "weak" — online learner be boosted into an algorithm with vanishing regret against the whole hypothesis class, without ever touching it directly? Chapter 12 answers yes, by cascading NNN weak learners through a Frank–Wolfe-style online construction whose running time is independent of the hypothesis class's size.

Setting

A γ\gammaγ-weak OCO learner (WOCL, Definition 12.1) for hypothesis class HHH guarantees, against any linear loss sequence with bounded range, ∑tft(W(at))≤γmin⁡h∈H∑tft(h(at))+RegretT(W)\sum_t f_t(W(a_t)) \le \gamma\min_{h\in H}\sum_tf_t(h(a_t)) + \mathrm{Regret}_T(W)∑t​ft​(W(at​))≤γminh∈H​∑t​ft​(h(at​))+RegretT​(W) — competitive with only a γ\gammaγ-fraction of the best fixed hypothesis's performance, plus a sublinear additive term. Because a γ\gammaγ-multiple guarantee is not shift-invariant, this is stated (Eq. 12.2) after normalizing losses so ft(xˉ)=0f_t(\bar x) = 0ft​(xˉ)=0 at the decision set's center of mass.

The weak learner's predictions must be scaled by 1/γ1/\gamma1/γ to be useful, which pushes them outside the decision set KKK — so Algorithm 36 needs a way to evaluate a proxy loss at points outside KKK and project back without paying much. Section 12.3's extension operator XK,κ,δ[f]=Sδ[f+κ⋅Dist(⋅,K)]X_{K,\kappa,\delta}[f] = S_\delta[f + \kappa\cdot\mathrm{Dist}(\cdot,K)]XK,κ,δ​[f]=Sδ​[f+κ⋅Dist(⋅,K)] (a smoothed, distance-penalized version of fff) solves this: Lemma 12.3 shows it agrees with fff on KKK up to δG\delta GδG, and that projecting onto KKK costs at most another δG\delta GδG.

Algorithm 36 cascades NNN copies of a γ\gammaγ-WOCL: starting from xt0=0x^0_t=0xt0​=0, each stage i=1,…,Ni=1,\dots,Ni=1,…,N takes a (1−ηi,ηi)(1-\eta_i,\eta_i)(1−ηi​,ηi​)-weighted step toward the iii-th weak learner's scaled prediction, and each weak learner is fed the gradient of the extended loss at the previous stage's iterate as its own linear loss — a genuinely projection-free, Frank–Wolfe-style construction (as in Chapter VII), applied here to a cascade of learners rather than a single gradient-descent sequence.

Formalization targets

Lemma 12.3 (extension operator properties, milestone)

∣f^(x)−f(x)∣≤δG|\hat f(x)-f(x)| \le \delta G∣f^​(x)−f(x)∣≤δG for x∈Kx\in Kx∈K; f^(ΠK(x))≤f^(x)+δG\hat f(\Pi_K(x)) \le \hat f(x) + \delta Gf^​(ΠK​(x))≤f^​(x)+δG for κ=G\kappa=Gκ=G.

Lemma 12.5 (smoothed-loss regret comparison, milestone)

For f^t\hat f_tf^​t​ β\betaβ-smooth and G^\hat GG^-Lipschitz, ∑tf^t(xtN)−∑tf^t(xt⋆)≤2βD2Tγ2N+G^DγRegretT(W)\sum_t \hat f_t(x^N_t) - \sum_t\hat f_t(x^\star_t) \le \frac{2\beta D^2T}{\gamma^2N} + \frac{\hat GD}\gamma\mathrm{Regret}_T(W)∑t​f^​t​(xtN​)−∑t​f^​t​(xt⋆​)≤γ2N2βD2T​+γG^D​RegretT​(W).

Theorem 12.4 — the mission's goal ("Main")

With δ=D2/(γN)\delta=\sqrt{D^2/(\gamma N)}δ=D2/(γN)​, ηi=min⁡{2/i,1}\eta_i=\min\{2/i,1\}ηi​=min{2/i,1}, Algorithm 36's predictions satisfy

∑tft(xt)−min⁡h⋆∈CH(H)∑tft(h⋆(at))≤5dGDTγN+2GDγRegretT(W).\sum_t f_t(x_t) - \min_{h^\star\in CH(H)}\sum_t f_t(h^\star(a_t)) \le \frac{5dGDT}{\gamma\sqrt N} + \frac{2GD}\gamma\mathrm{Regret}_T(W).t∑​ft​(xt​)−h⋆∈CH(H)min​t∑​ft​(h⋆(at​))≤γN​5dGDT​+γ2GD​RegretT​(W).

Significance

Theorem 12.4's comparator is the convex hull of HHH, not the best single hypothesis — strictly stronger, and (as the book notes) still a meaningful guarantee even at γ=1\gamma=1γ=1 (a weak learner that already matches HHH's best hypothesis), since the boosting algorithm's payoff is purely the upgrade from HHH to CH(H)CH(H)CH(H). Combined with §12.1.1's binary-classification instantiation and the O(Tlog⁡N)O(\sqrt{T\log N})O(TlogN​)-vs-O(T⋅poly(log⁡N))O(T\cdot\mathrm{poly}(\log N))O(T⋅poly(logN))-style efficiency argument, this is the chapter's answer to whether contextual-learning-scale expert classes (exponential in context count) can be handled with per-round cost independent of ∣H∣|H|∣H∣ — a genuinely new computational regime relative to Hedge's O(log⁡N)O(\log N)O(logN)-dependence. No prior art was found on the platform for online boosting or the extension operator (planning search: q=online+boosting, q=extension+operator — 0 hits); this mission drafts all three results fresh, building internally on a Frank–Wolfe-style construction restated locally (Chunk 07 is not yet published).

Difficulty

Lemma 12.3's proof combines the smoothing operator's own approximation guarantee (part 1, "since Dist(x,K)=0\mathrm{Dist}(x,K)=0Dist(x,K)=0 for x∈Kx\in Kx∈K, this follows immediately from Lemma 2.8") with a Cauchy–Schwarz argument balancing the gradient-norm bound GGG against the penalty coefficient κ\kappaκ exactly at κ=G\kappa=Gκ=G (part 2) — a delicate one-parameter tuning, not a generic estimate. Lemma 12.5's proof (not fully excerpted here, continuing past PDF p. 223 with an inductive argument on Δi=∑t(f^t(xti)−f^t(xt⋆))\Delta_i = \sum_t(\hat f_t(x^i_t)-\hat f_t(x^\star_t))Δi​=∑t​(f^​t​(xti​)−f^​t​(xt⋆​)) across the NNN cascade stages) is structurally the Chapter VII Theorem 7.1/Lemma 7.4 argument applied once per stage, compounding the γ\gammaγ-WOCL guarantee's slack across all NNN stages simultaneously — a genuinely two-dimensional induction (over both rounds ttt and stages iii) that the offline or single-stage online analyses do not need. Theorem 12.4's own proof (PDF p. 224 onward, not fully excerpted) combines both lemmas with the specific parameter substitutions β=dG/δ\beta=dG/\deltaβ=dG/δ, G^=G\hat G = GG^=G, and δ=D2/(γN)\delta=\sqrt{D^2/(\gamma N)}δ=D2/(γN)​ to reach the stated closed-form bound.

Formalization scope

Extension/SmoothedFunction redeclare Chapter II's smoothing operator (matching BanditConvex.SmoothedFunction, Chunk 06, in content — neither is yet published) rather than importing it, per Addendum 2 rule 5. IsGammaWOCL is drafted at the shifted-form Eq. (12.2) the rest of the chapter actually works with (not Definition 12.1's own unshifted form with the center-of-mass term xˉ\bar xxˉ), matching the book's own explicit simplification. IsOnlineBoostingRun mechanizes Algorithm 36's full five-line cascade (stage-by-stage iterate, weak-learner scaling, final projection, and the per-stage linear-loss construction from the extended loss's gradient) — the fullest mechanization in this mission's items, since Theorem 12.4's own hypotheses (hWOCL, one γ-WOCL guarantee per stage) need the run's internal structure to connect xplay to the weak learners' regret guarantees at all. Lemma 12.5 is drafted at a more abstract level (x^N, x^\star, Regret_T(W) as direct inputs, matching how the book's own proof of that lemma proceeds before Theorem 12.4's own parameter substitution), consistent with the "no more mechanization than the statement needs" principle used throughout this series (e.g. Chunk 10's Lemma 7.4-style scoping). CH(H) is Mathlib's own convexHull ℝ H, applied to H viewed as a subset of the function space — a faithful match to the book's {∑_{h∈H}p_hh \mid p\in\Delta_H} that also correctly handles infinite H, which the book's own sum notation does not literally cover.

Not formalized: §12.1's motivating discussion and its binary-classification/personalized-article examples (illustrative, not numbered theorems); the running-time-independent-of-|H| claim (prose, not part of Theorem 12.4's own mathematical content, per BRIEF.md); Remarks 1-2 following Theorem 12.4 (commentary, no further claim).

Selected references

  • E. Hazan, Introduction to Online Convex Optimization, 2nd ed., arXiv:1909.05207v3, Chapter 12.
  • A. Beygelzimer, S. Kale, H. Luo, "Optimal and adaptive algorithms for online boosting," ICML 2015.
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Convex OptimizationOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Introduction to Online Convex Optimization VI: Bandit Convex Optimization via Gradient EstimationTextbook

Motivation

Every algorithm in Chapters I–V observes the full cost function ftf_tft​ after playing xtx_txt​. Many applications only reveal the scalar cost ft(xt)f_t(x_t)ft​(xt​) incurred — routing a network and observing total latency, or placing an ad and observing the click-through revenue, without ever seeing the cost of a path or bid not taken. This is the bandit feedback model, and Chapter 6 asks whether sublinear regret survives it. The chapter's answer is a general two-part reduction — turn a first-order full-information algorithm into a bandit algorithm by feeding it an unbiased gradient estimator built from a single scalar observation — instantiated concretely on online gradient descent to produce the first historical bandit convex optimization algorithm, the FKM algorithm (Flaxman–Kalai–McMahan).

Setting

Let K⊆RnK \subseteq \mathbb R^nK⊆Rn be the decision set, containing the unit ball centered at 000, with diameter at most DDD. At each round t=1,…,Tt = 1,\dots,Tt=1,…,T the player picks yt∈Ky_t \in Kyt​∈K, an adversary has fixed a cost function ftf_tft​ (Lipschitz constant GGG, bounded by 111 in absolute value on KKK), and the player observes only the scalar ft(yt)f_t(y_t)ft​(yt​) — never ftf_tft​ itself or its gradient. Regret is ∑t=1Tft(yt)−min⁡x∈K∑t=1Tft(x)\sum_{t=1}^T f_t(y_t) - \min_{x\in K}\sum_{t=1}^T f_t(x)∑t=1T​ft​(yt​)−minx∈K​∑t=1T​ft​(x), exactly as in the full-information setting, but now the algorithm's plays are themselves random (they depend on the sampled gradient estimates), so the guarantee is on expected regret.

The chapter's construction has two independent parts. Part 1 (Lemma 6.5) is a black-box reduction: given any first order full-information algorithm AAA (Definition 6.4 — one that depends on each cost function only through its gradient at the played point) with a full-information regret bound BA(∇f1(x1),…,∇fT(xT))B_A(\nabla f_1(x_1),\dots,\nabla f_T(x_T))BA​(∇f1​(x1​),…,∇fT​(xT​)), feeding AAA an unbiased estimator gtg_tgt​ of ∇ft(xt)\nabla f_t(x_t)∇ft​(xt​) in place of the true gradient preserves the regret bound in expectation, up to BAB_ABA​ evaluated at the estimators instead of the true gradients. Part 2 (Lemma 6.7) supplies such an estimator using only one scalar observation per round: sample uuu uniformly from the unit sphere, play y=x+δuy = x + \delta uy=x+δu for a small radius δ\deltaδ, and g=nδf(y)ug = \frac{n}{\delta} f(y)ug=δn​f(y)u is (for linear fff) an unbiased estimator of ∇f(x)\nabla f(x)∇f(x) — more precisely, an unbiased estimator of the gradient of fff's δ\deltaδ-smoothed version f^δ(x)=Ev∈B[f(x+δv)]\hat f_\delta(x) = \mathbb E_{v\in B}[f(x+\delta v)]f^​δ​(x)=Ev∈B​[f(x+δv)], by a Stokes'-theorem identity relating a ball integral to a sphere integral.

Formalization targets

Lemma 6.5 (the reduction, milestone)

E[∑t=1Tft(xt)]−∑t=1Tft(u)≤E[BA(g1,…,gT)]\mathbb E\Big[\sum_{t=1}^T f_t(x_t)\Big] - \sum_{t=1}^T f_t(u) \le \mathbb E[B_A(g_1,\dots,g_T)]E[t=1∑T​ft​(xt​)]−t=1∑T​ft​(u)≤E[BA​(g1​,…,gT​)]

for any fixed u∈Ku \in Ku∈K, any first order algorithm AAA with full-information bound BAB_ABA​, and any sequence of estimators gtg_tgt​ with E[gt∣history through round t]=∇ft(xt)\mathbb E[g_t \mid \text{history through round } t] = \nabla f_t(x_t)E[gt​∣history through round t]=∇ft​(xt​).

Lemma 6.7 (the spherical estimator identity, milestone)

Eu∈S[f(x+δu) u]=δn∇f^δ(x).\mathbb E_{u\in S}[f(x+\delta u)\,u] = \frac{\delta}{n}\nabla \hat f_\delta(x).Eu∈S​[f(x+δu)u]=nδ​∇f^​δ​(x).

Theorem 6.9 — the mission's goal

The FKM algorithm (Algorithm 23: play yt=xt+δuty_t = x_t + \delta u_tyt​=xt​+δut​, form gt=nδft(yt)utg_t = \frac n\delta f_t(y_t)u_tgt​=δn​ft​(yt​)ut​, update xt+1=ΠKδ[xt−ηgt]x_{t+1} = \Pi_{K_\delta}[x_t - \eta g_t]xt+1​=ΠKδ​​[xt​−ηgt​] on the shrunk set Kδ={z∣(1−δ)−1z∈K}K_\delta = \{z \mid (1-\delta)^{-1}z \in K\}Kδ​={z∣(1−δ)−1z∈K}) with η=D/(nT3/4)\eta = D/(nT^{3/4})η=D/(nT3/4), δ=1/T1/4\delta = 1/T^{1/4}δ=1/T1/4 guarantees

∑t=1TE[ft(yt)]−min⁡x∈K∑t=1Tft(x)≤9nDGT3/4=O(T3/4).\sum_{t=1}^T \mathbb E[f_t(y_t)] - \min_{x\in K}\sum_{t=1}^T f_t(x) \le 9nDGT^{3/4} = O(T^{3/4}).t=1∑T​E[ft​(yt​)]−x∈Kmin​t=1∑T​ft​(x)≤9nDGT3/4=O(T3/4).

Significance

Theorem 6.9's O(T3/4)O(T^{3/4})O(T3/4) rate is strictly worse than the O(T)O(\sqrt T)O(T​) rate of full-information online gradient descent (Chapter III) — this gap, not a shared rate, is the chapter's real content: bandit feedback provably costs regret, and the FKM algorithm is the historically first algorithm to pin down how much, via the clean two-part reduction that later chapters' improved bandit algorithms (§6.5's self-concordant-barrier method, not formalized here) all refine. Lemma 6.5 is independently reusable: it is a template, quantified over an arbitrary first-order algorithm AAA and an arbitrary unbiased-estimator family, not tied to the sphere-sampling construction that instantiates it for Theorem 6.9. No prior art was found on the platform for bandit convex optimization, gradient-free methods, or Frank–Wolfe-style estimators; this mission's three items formalize the standard textbook account fresh.

Difficulty

Lemma 6.5's proof is a martingale-style argument: it introduces auxiliary deterministic functions ht(x)=ft(x)+ξt⊤xh_t(x) = f_t(x) + \xi_t^\top xht​(x)=ft​(x)+ξt⊤​x (where ξt=gt−∇ft(xt)\xi_t = g_t - \nabla f_t(x_t)ξt​=gt​−∇ft​(xt​)) whose gradient at xtx_txt​ is exactly gtg_tgt​, applies AAA's full-information bound to the hth_tht​'s (a genuinely random cost sequence, since ξt\xi_tξt​ is random), and then takes expectations, using unbiasedness (E[ξt∣history]=0\mathbb E[\xi_t \mid \text{history}] = 0E[ξt​∣history]=0) to show E[ht(xt)]=E[ft(xt)]\mathbb E[h_t(x_t)] = \mathbb E[f_t(x_t)]E[ht​(xt​)]=E[ft​(xt​)] and E[ht(u)]=ft(u)\mathbb E[h_t(u)] = f_t(u)E[ht​(u)]=ft​(u) for the fixed comparator uuu. This requires a genuine filtration and conditional expectation, not merely an unconditional expectation, since xtx_txt​ and gtg_tgt​ are themselves random and adapted to different points in the history. Lemma 6.7's proof invokes Stokes' theorem to relate ∇∫Bδf(x+v) dv\nabla \int_{B_\delta} f(x+v)\,dv∇∫Bδ​​f(x+v)dv to ∫Sδf(x+u)u∥u∥ du\int_{S_\delta} f(x+u)\frac{u}{\|u\|}\,du∫Sδ​​f(x+u)∥u∥u​du, then uses the volume ratio voln(Bδ)/voln−1(Sδ)=δ/n\mathrm{vol}_n(B_\delta)/\mathrm{vol}_{n-1}(S_\delta) = \delta/nvoln​(Bδ​)/voln−1​(Sδ​)=δ/n — a calculus fact about Euclidean balls and spheres, not itself re-derived in this mission's Lean (the identity is drafted as the statement Lemma 6.7 asserts, to be proved from Mathlib's own ball/sphere volume and divergence-theorem lemmas).

Formalization scope

IsFirstOrderOnlineAlgorithm formalizes only the substitution property of Definition 6.4 (the book's second bullet); the first bullet, a closure condition on the admissible family of loss functions, is a precondition on AAA's domain rather than a checkable mathematical property and is not formalized — see MODERATION_NOTES.md. SmoothedFunction (Eq. (6.4)) and IsUniformOnUnitSphere are declared once and shared by both milestones and the goal, rather than re-derived inline. Lemma 6.5's history is modeled by an explicit filtration 𝓕 (with x t adapted to 𝓕 t and g t to 𝓕 (t+1)), since Lean's conditional expectation needs a concrete σ-algebra to condition on; the book's informal "history x1,f1,…,xt,ftx_1,f_1,\dots,x_t,f_tx1​,f1​,…,xt​,ft​" is exactly this filtration once the (deterministic) fτf_\taufτ​'s are set aside as carrying no randomness. Kδ, the shrunk decision set Algorithm 23 actually projects onto, is kept a separate object from K throughout (a pitfall the chapter brief flags explicitly), and min⁡x∈K\min_{x\in K}minx∈K​ in Theorem 6.9 is rendered as an infimum, checked non-vacuous since KKK is nonempty and the objective is bounded below on KKK by the chapter's own ∣ft∣≤1|f_t|\le 1∣ft​∣≤1 assumption.

Not formalized: §6.5's self-concordant-barrier bandit linear optimization algorithm (starred, out of the recommended goal's scope) and Corollary 6.8's ellipsoidal-sampling generalization (a routine corollary of Lemma 6.7 the book itself derives, not independently central).

Selected references

  • E. Hazan, Introduction to Online Convex Optimization, 2nd ed., arXiv:1909.05207v3, Chapter 6.
  • A. Flaxman, A. Kalai, H.B. McMahan, "Online convex optimization in the bandit setting: gradient descent without a gradient," SODA 2005.
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Convex OptimizationOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Introduction to Online Convex Optimization V: RFTL and the Regret Bound of Follow-the-Regularized-LeaderTextbook

Motivation

Online convex optimization (OCO) asks a learner to repeatedly pick a point in a convex set KKK, pay a cost that an adversary reveals only after the choice is made, and be judged against the best fixed point in hindsight. Chapter III of this series formalized the simplest general-purpose answer, online gradient descent (OGD): take a gradient step, project back onto KKK. OGD's analysis, however, is tied to the Euclidean geometry of the projection step — it treats every coordinate of KKK alike, and its regret bound degrades badly when KKK's natural geometry is not Euclidean (the probability simplex under the ℓ1\ell_1ℓ1​ norm is the standard example, where a Euclidean-projection algorithm's regret scales with n\sqrt{n}n​ in the dimension nnn, while an algorithm that exploits the simplex's own geometry attains regret scaling only with log⁡n\sqrt{\log n}logn​).

Regularized Follow the Leader (RFTL) is the meta-algorithm this chapter introduces to fix this: rather than fixing a specific geometry, RFTL is parameterized by an arbitrary regularization function RRR, and its regret bound depends on RRR only through two scalar quantities the mission makes explicit — the range of RRR over KKK, and a RRR-dependent "local norm" of the gradients. Choosing RRR to match KKK's geometry (entropy regularization on the simplex, for instance) recovers the sharp bounds that plain OGD cannot. RFTL and its close relative Online Mirror Descent (OMD), also introduced here, are the ancestors of essentially every regularization-based online learning algorithm in use today, including the multiplicative-weights/Hedge algorithm of Chapter I as a special case (entropy regularization on the simplex) and the exponentiated-gradient algorithm this book's own Chapter VIII reuses (Corollary 5.7, a further specialization of Theorem 5.2 this mission's Theorem 5.2 underlies). The naive "Follow the Leader" strategy this chapter opens by refuting — always play the empirically best point so far — is a natural first idea and provably fails: the book gives an explicit two-point cost sequence on which it incurs regret linear in the horizon. Regularization is the fix, and quantifying exactly how much it costs and buys is this chapter's content.

Setting

Fix a convex, nonempty decision set KKK in a real inner product space EEE and a sequence of convex cost functions f1,f2,⋯:K→Rf_1, f_2, \dots : K \to \mathbb{R}f1​,f2​,⋯:K→R. As in Chapter III, regret after TTT rounds is

RegretT=∑t=1Tft(xt)−min⁡x⋆∈K∑t=1Tft(x⋆).\mathrm{Regret}_T = \sum_{t=1}^{T} f_t(x_t) - \min_{x^\star \in K} \sum_{t=1}^{T} f_t(x^\star).RegretT​=t=1∑T​ft​(xt​)−x⋆∈Kmin​t=1∑T​ft​(x⋆).

A regularization function R:K→RR : K \to \mathbb{R}R:K→R is a strongly convex, smooth, twice differentiable function with a positive-definite Hessian on the interior of KKK. Its Bregman divergence measures the gap between RRR and its own first-order Taylor approximation:

BR(x∥y)=R(x)−R(y)−∇R(y)⊤(x−y).B_R(x \| y) = R(x) - R(y) - \nabla R(y)^\top(x - y).BR​(x∥y)=R(x)−R(y)−∇R(y)⊤(x−y).

By the mean value theorem, BR(x∥y)=12∥x−y∥z2B_R(x\|y) = \tfrac12\|x-y\|_z^2BR​(x∥y)=21​∥x−y∥z2​ for some point zzz on the segment [x,y][x,y][x,y], where ∥⋅∥z\|\cdot\|_z∥⋅∥z​ is the norm induced by the Hessian ∇2R(z)\nabla^2 R(z)∇2R(z); its dual norm, denoted ∥⋅∥z∗\|\cdot\|_z^*∥⋅∥z∗​, is the local norm at zzz. Writing ∥⋅∥t\|\cdot\|_t∥⋅∥t​ for the local norm between consecutive iterates xt,xt+1x_t, x_{t+1}xt​,xt+1​, the RRR-diameter of KKK is DR2=max⁡x,y∈K(R(x)−R(y))D_R^2 = \max_{x,y\in K}(R(x)-R(y))DR2​=maxx,y∈K​(R(x)−R(y)).

The RFTL algorithm (Algorithm 13), with step size η>0\eta > 0η>0, plays x1=arg⁡min⁡x∈KR(x)x_1 = \arg\min_{x\in K} R(x)x1​=argminx∈K​R(x), then at every round updates

xt+1=arg⁡min⁡x∈K{η∑s=1t∇s⊤x+R(x)},∇t:=∇ft(xt).x_{t+1} = \arg\min_{x \in K}\Big\{\eta \sum_{s=1}^{t} \nabla_s^\top x + R(x)\Big\}, \qquad \nabla_t := \nabla f_t(x_t).xt+1​=argx∈Kmin​{ηs=1∑t​∇s⊤​x+R(x)},∇t​:=∇ft​(xt​).

The agile Online Mirror Descent algorithm (Algorithm 14, agile version) instead maintains a dual point yty_tyt​ with ∇R(y1)=0\nabla R(y_1) = 0∇R(y1​)=0, updates it by ∇R(yt+1)=∇R(xt)−η∇t\nabla R(y_{t+1}) = \nabla R(x_t) - \eta \nabla_t∇R(yt+1​)=∇R(xt​)−η∇t​, and projects via the Bregman divergence, xt+1=arg⁡min⁡x∈KBR(x∥yt+1)x_{t+1} = \arg\min_{x\in K} B_R(x\|y_{t+1})xt+1​=argminx∈K​BR​(x∥yt+1​) (with x1x_1x1​ defined the same way from y1y_1y1​). RFTL and the lazy variant of OMD coincide for linear costs (Lemma 5.5, not formalized here — it is not used by either target); the agile variant's analysis is genuinely different and is the mission's second target.

Formalization targets

Target (Theorem 5.2 — RFTL's regret bound)

RegretT  ≤  2η∑t=1T∥∇t∥t∗2  +  R(u)−R(x1)η,for every u∈K.\mathrm{Regret}_T \;\le\; 2\eta \sum_{t=1}^{T} \|\nabla_t\|_t^{*2} \;+\; \frac{R(u) - R(x_1)}{\eta}, \qquad \text{for every } u \in K.RegretT​≤2ηt=1∑T​∥∇t​∥t∗2​+ηR(u)−R(x1​)​,for every u∈K.

This is the mission's goal: RFTL, run with any admissible regularizer, attains a regret bound governed only by the cumulative squared local norm of the gradients and RRR's range over KKK. The bound is proved via two milestones: Lemma 5.3 (regret controlled by the total "prediction drift" ∑t∇t⊤(xt−xt+1)\sum_t \nabla_t^\top(x_t - x_{t+1})∑t​∇t⊤​(xt​−xt+1​) plus DR2/ηD_R^2/\etaDR2​/η), which in turn rests on Lemma 5.4 (a "follow-the-leader beats be-the-leader" comparison inequality, proved by induction on the horizon).

Further target (Theorem 5.6 — agile OMD's regret bound)

RegretT  ≤  η4∑t=1T∥∇t∥t∗2  +  R(u)−R(x1)2η,for every u∈K.\mathrm{Regret}_T \;\le\; \frac{\eta}{4} \sum_{t=1}^{T} \|\nabla_t\|_t^{*2} \;+\; \frac{R(u) - R(x_1)}{2\eta}, \qquad \text{for every } u \in K.RegretT​≤4η​t=1∑T​∥∇t​∥t∗2​+2ηR(u)−R(x1​)​,for every u∈K.

A structurally similar bound for the agile variant, included as its own goal-level item since — as the book states explicitly — its proof technique is unrelated to RFTL's, not a corollary of it.

Both targets are the book's own tightest, non-asymptotic statements: neither is weakened to an O(⋅)O(\cdot)O(⋅) form, and the book's own further (unnumbered) corollary specializing Theorem 5.2 to a uniform local-norm bound ∥∇t∥t∗≤GR\|\nabla_t\|_t^* \le G_R∥∇t​∥t∗​≤GR​ is left out, matching this series' convention of formalizing only the numbered results.

Significance

The results themselves. Theorem 5.2 is the general regret theorem behind every regularization scheme in online learning: instantiating RRR recovers the projected-gradient bound of Chapter III (Euclidean RRR), the multiplicative-weights bound of Chapter I (entropy RRR on the simplex), and — through the exponentiated-gradient specialization (Corollary 5.7, not itself a target here) — the row-player regret bound this book's own Chapter VIII cites as "Eq. (8.1)" in its reduction of zero-sum games to regret minimization. Theorem 5.6 gives the same guarantee for an algorithm (agile OMD) that, unlike RFTL, maintains a feasible point at every round, which the book notes is preferable in the adaptive-regret setting of Chapter X.

Formalizing it. Both theorems have complete, elementary proofs in the source (no gaps, no "with high probability", no hidden regularity conditions); the mission's work is converting the analytic argument — the Bregman-divergence identity, the generalized Cauchy-Schwarz inequality bounding the drift term by the local norm, and the two induction arguments underlying Lemma 5.4 — into machine-checked statements. No formalization of RFTL, OMD, or the local-norm machinery exists on the platform (checked below); the closest Formalpedia entries state a related but distinctly narrower result.

Difficulty

The central obstacle is that the regularizer RRR is a hypothesis, not a fixed function: the theorem must hold for every admissible RRR simultaneously, so nothing about RRR beyond its stated properties (strong convexity, smoothness, twice differentiability) may be used. A newcomer's first instinct — bound the local norm ∥∇t∥t∗\|\nabla_t\|_t^*∥∇t​∥t∗​ by a fixed multiple of the Euclidean dual norm ∥∇t∥2\|\nabla_t\|_2∥∇t​∥2​ — fails in general and is exactly the bound RFTL is designed to avoid needing; the whole point of the local-norm formulation is that it can be tight for regularizers (like entropy) whose Hessian is very far from a multiple of the identity. A second obstacle is Lemma 5.4's induction, which compares xt+1x_{t+1}xt+1​ (a minimizer over t+1t+1t+1 terms) against uuu using the minimality of xt+1x_{t+1}xt+1​ at exactly the right instantiation — an argument that looks almost circular until the induction hypothesis is applied at u=xt+2u = x_{t+2}u=xt+2​, not at the theorem's free variable.

Formalization scope

KKK ranges over an arbitrary real, complete inner product space (a real Hilbert space), matching Chapters III and IV, not a fixed Rn\mathbb{R}^nRn. The RFTL and agile-OMD update rules are represented relationally (IsArgMinOn), since Mathlib has no canonical argmin operator for a general convex set — mirroring IsMetricProjection's precedent from Chapter III. The Hessian at the mean-value-theorem's intermediate point is represented via the second Fréchet derivative of RRR's gradient map (HasFDerivAt), since Mathlib has no dedicated Hessian type; the local dual norm is then any value satisfying the resulting existential characterization (IsLocalDualNormSq), stated once and shared by both targets. A boundedness hypothesis on RRR over KKK is added to Lemma 5.3's statement to keep the RRR-diameter DR2D_R^2DR2​ from collapsing to Mathlib's junk value for an unbounded supremum — a condition every regularizer the book actually uses (strongly convex and smooth over a bounded KKK) already satisfies, so it narrows nothing.

Trivializing formalization ruled out. A regret bound stated for an "algorithm" defined loosely enough to include the after-the-fact optimal choice would be vacuous; IsRFTLRun and IsOMDAgileRun instead pin down the exact history-dependent update rule of Algorithms 13 and 14 (the current gradient sequence, the current regularizer, and nothing else) as a hypothesis, so a proof must genuinely use the specific update. Theorem 5.2 and Theorem 5.6 are kept as two separate items rather than one theorem parameterized by an algorithm choice, since — per the chapter's own remark that their analyses are unrelated — a merged statement would either need to branch internally on the algorithm or silently identify two genuinely different update rules.

Reuse and prior art. OnlineConvexOpt.FirstOrder.RegretT (Chapter III, published) is imported and reused verbatim, keeping the regret functional identical across the whole book. Definitions specific to Chapter IV (OnlineConvexOpt.SecondOrder, not yet published) are not imported per this series' convention that a draft cannot import another draft; quadForm is redeclared locally instead. On the platform, BanditAlgorithm.ftrl_regret_bound, BanditAlgorithm.mirror_descent_regret_bound, and BanditAlgorithm.ftrl_simplex_exp_weights_regret (the Bandit Algorithms series, Chapter XII) state regret bounds for FTRL and Mirror Descent in the linear-cost, bandit-idiom setting (a fixed linear loss ⟨a,yt⟩\langle a, y_t\rangle⟨a,yt​⟩ at each round, regret compared via a Bregman-divergence potential at fixed points). Hazan's Theorem 5.2 and 5.6 are for general convex ftf_tft​ and use the book's own local-norm object, which has no counterpart in those statements; they are read in full and are not faithful substitutes (different hypothesis class), so this mission drafts its own, independent items rather than reusing them.

Selected references

  • Hazan, Introduction to Online Convex Optimization, 2nd ed., Chapter 5. arXiv:1909.05207v3
  • Shalev-Shwartz, Online Learning and Online Convex Optimization, Foundations and Trends in Machine Learning, 2012 (surveys RFTL/Mirror Descent under the name "Online Mirror Descent"). https://doi.org/10.1561/2200000018
  • Zinkevich, Online Convex Programming and Generalized Infinitesimal Gradient Ascent, ICML 2003 (the Euclidean special case this chapter generalizes). https://www.aaai.org/Papers/ICML/2003/ICML03-120.pdf
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Convex OptimizationOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Introduction to Online Convex Optimization IV: The Online Newton Step AlgorithmTextbook

Motivation

Online convex optimization measures a decision maker against the best fixed decision in hindsight, and the standard guarantee — achieved, for instance, by online gradient descent — is regret growing like O(T)O(\sqrt T)O(T​) over TTT rounds. This rate is unimprovable for general convex losses: an adversary can always force Ω(T)\Omega(\sqrt T)Ω(T​) regret against any algorithm. But many losses that arise in practice are not merely convex — they carry extra curvature that a first-order method cannot exploit. The paradigm case is online portfolio selection: a trader repeatedly rebalances wealth across nnn assets, observes the market's return vector, and is scored by the logarithm of her wealth growth. Thomas Cover's 1991 universal portfolio theory showed that a decision maker with vanishing average regret against this log-wealth objective grows her wealth, asymptotically, at the same rate as the best fixed (constantly rebalanced) portfolio in hindsight — without any statistical assumption on how the market behaves, in sharp contrast to the Geometric Brownian Motion model of mainstream finance (Cover, Universal Portfolios, Mathematical Finance 1991). Cover's own algorithm, and the class of losses his analysis needs, turned out to generalize far beyond portfolio selection: the same curvature condition governs online square-loss regression (Azoury–Warmuth 2001) and other exp-concave learning problems. This chapter isolates that condition — exp-concavity — and shows it buys a logarithmic-in-TTT regret bound via a second-order algorithm, online Newton step, introduced by Hazan, Agarwal and Kale (Logarithmic Regret Algorithms for Online Convex Optimization, Machine Learning 2007), building on the polynomial-time randomization of Cover's algorithm due to Kalai and Vempala (Efficient Algorithms for Universal Portfolios, Journal of Machine Learning Research 2003) and on the multiplicative-weights algorithm EWOO, which Hazan, Kalai, Kale and Agarwal extended to general exp-concave losses (2006).

Setting

Fix a real inner-product space EEE (in the goal theorem, E=RnE = \mathbb{R}^nE=Rn) and a convex, bounded decision set K⊆EK \subseteq EK⊆E. As in Chapters I and III, an online convex optimization protocol runs for TTT rounds: at round ttt the player picks xt∈Kx_t \in Kxt​∈K, an adversary reveals a convex cost ft:E→Rf_t : E \to \mathbb{R}ft​:E→R, the player incurs ft(xt)f_t(x_t)ft​(xt​), and regret is

RegretT=∑t=1Tft(xt)−min⁡x⋆∈K∑t=1Tft(x⋆),\mathrm{Regret}_T = \sum_{t=1}^T f_t(x_t) - \min_{x^\star \in K} \sum_{t=1}^T f_t(x^\star),RegretT​=t=1∑T​ft​(xt​)−x⋆∈Kmin​t=1∑T​ft​(x⋆),

exactly Eq. (1.2) of Chapter I (OnlineConvexOpt.FirstOrder.RegretT, reused unchanged here). The costs are assumed GGG-gradient-bounded (∥∇ft(x)∥≤G\|\nabla f_t(x)\| \le G∥∇ft​(x)∥≤G on KKK) and KKK has diameter DDD (dist(x,y)≤D\mathrm{dist}(x,y) \le Ddist(x,y)≤D for x,y∈Kx,y \in Kx,y∈K), the same standing hypotheses as Chapters II–III.

A convex f:E→Rf : E \to \mathbb{R}f:E→R is α\alphaα-exp-concave over KKK (Definition 4.1) if g(x)=e−αf(x)g(x) = e^{-\alpha f(x)}g(x)=e−αf(x) is concave on KKK. This is strictly weaker than α\alphaα-strong convexity (Chapter III), yet Lemma 4.2 shows it is exactly a directional strong-convexity condition: a twice-differentiable fff is α\alphaα-exp-concave at xxx iff its Hessian dominates α∇f(x)∇f(x)⊤\alpha \nabla f(x)\nabla f(x)^\topα∇f(x)∇f(x)⊤ — strong curvature only along the gradient direction, not in every direction, which is what lets loss functions like −log⁡(r⊤x)-\log(r^\top x)−log(r⊤x) (rank-one Hessian, far from strongly convex) qualify. Lemma 4.3 turns this into the quadratic lower bound the whole chapter runs on: for γ≤12min⁡{1/(GD),α}\gamma \le \tfrac12\min\{1/(GD), \alpha\}γ≤21​min{1/(GD),α} and x,y∈Kx, y \in Kx,y∈K,

f(x)≥f(y)+∇f(y)⊤(x−y)+γ2(∇f(y)⊤(x−y))2.f(x) \ge f(y) + \nabla f(y)^\top (x - y) + \tfrac{\gamma}{2}\bigl(\nabla f(y)^\top (x-y)\bigr)^2 .f(x)≥f(y)+∇f(y)⊤(x−y)+2γ​(∇f(y)⊤(x−y))2.

Two algorithms are formalized. The Exponentially Weighted Online Optimizer (Algorithm 11, EWOO) plays the wtw_twt​-weighted centroid of KKK, xt=(∫Kwt)−1∫Kx wt(x) dxx_t = \bigl(\int_K w_t\bigr)^{-1}\int_K x\, w_t(x)\,dxxt​=(∫K​wt​)−1∫K​xwt​(x)dx with wt(x)=e−α∑τ<tfτ(x)w_t(x) = e^{-\alpha\sum_{\tau<t} f_\tau(x)}wt​(x)=e−α∑τ<t​fτ​(x); it needs no Lipschitz or diameter bound but is only quasi-polynomial-time in general. Online Newton step (Algorithm 12, ONS) instead maintains a running second-moment matrix At=At−1+∇t∇t⊤A_t = A_{t-1} + \nabla_t\nabla_t^\topAt​=At−1​+∇t​∇t⊤​ (A0=εIA_0 = \varepsilon IA0​=εI) and moves by yt+1=xt−γ−1At−1∇ty_{t+1} = x_t - \gamma^{-1}A_t^{-1}\nabla_tyt+1​=xt​−γ−1At−1​∇t​, projecting back onto KKK in the norm ∥⋅∥At\|\cdot\|_{A_t}∥⋅∥At​​ induced by AtA_tAt​ rather than the Euclidean norm. The formalization represents AtA_tAt​ not as a matrix but as an operator E→LEE \to_L EE→L​E, with At=At−1+∇t∇t⊤A_t = A_{t-1} + \nabla_t\nabla_t^\topAt​=At−1​+∇t​∇t⊤​ rendered as Mathlib's rank-one operator InnerProductSpace.rankOne ℝ ∇_t ∇_t, At−1A_t^{-1}At−1​ as ContinuousLinearMap.inverse, and the generalized projection as minimizing ⟨y−x,At(y−x)⟩\langle y - x, A_t(y-x)\rangle⟨y−x,At​(y−x)⟩ over KKK (quadForm/IsGeneralizedProjection in Def_..._OnlineNewtonStep).

Formalization targets

Goal — Theorem 4.5

RegretT(ONS)≤2(1α+GD) nlog⁡T,γ=12min⁡{1GD,α},  ε=1γ2D2,  T≥4.\mathrm{Regret}_T(\mathrm{ONS}) \le 2\Bigl(\tfrac1\alpha + GD\Bigr)\, n \log T , \qquad \gamma = \tfrac12\min\{\tfrac{1}{GD}, \alpha\},\ \ \varepsilon = \tfrac{1}{\gamma^2 D^2}, \ \ T \ge 4 .RegretT​(ONS)≤2(α1​+GD)nlogT,γ=21​min{GD1​,α},  ε=γ2D21​,  T≥4.

This is the chapter's capstone: logarithmic regret in TTT, at the price of a factor of the ambient dimension nnn — a genuine trade-off against the dimension-free O(T)O(\sqrt T)O(T​) of Chapter III, stated as such rather than hidden inside an O(⋅)O(\cdot)O(⋅).

Comparator — Theorem 4.4

RegretT(EWOO)≤nαlog⁡T+2α.\mathrm{Regret}_T(\mathrm{EWOO}) \le \tfrac{n}{\alpha}\log T + \tfrac{2}{\alpha}.RegretT​(EWOO)≤αn​logT+α2​.

Also logarithmic and, unlike Theorem 4.5, independent of GGG and DDD — the price is EWOO's running time, not its regret, so this is not a weaker version of the same target but an incomparable algorithm formalized for contrast.

Significance

Exp-concavity is the precise dividing line between Θ(T)\Theta(\sqrt T)Θ(T​)-regret losses and losses that admit O(log⁡T)O(\log T)O(logT) regret via a tractable algorithm — narrower than convexity, broader than strong convexity, and satisfied by the log-loss of universal portfolio selection, the square loss of online regression, and (Chapter IX onward) losses arising from PAC learning reductions. The dimension dependence in Theorem 4.5 is not an artifact of a loose proof: it is inherent to the second-moment-matrix approach and is the reason later work (self-concordant barriers, sketching) is needed to remove it in special cases. Both regret bounds have long been proved on paper; formalizing them contributes machine-checked statements of the exp-concavity characterization, the quadratic lower bound it yields, and both algorithms' regret guarantees — none of which currently exist on the platform in any form (a search for "exp-concave", "online Newton step", "second-order online" and "universal portfolio" returned no hits).

Difficulty

The natural first idea for bounding RegretT(ONS)\mathrm{Regret}_T(\mathrm{ONS})RegretT​(ONS) is to bound each round's progress the way online gradient descent's analysis does: a generalized-Pythagorean argument (Lemma 4.6) reduces the regret to (1α+GD)(∑t∇t⊤At−1∇t+1)\bigl(\tfrac1\alpha + GD\bigr)\bigl(\sum_t \nabla_t^\top A_t^{-1}\nabla_t + 1\bigr)(α1​+GD)(∑t​∇t⊤​At−1​∇t​+1) — this much follows the OGD template with the Euclidean norm replaced by the AtA_tAt​-norm. The obstruction is bounding ∑t∇t⊤At−1∇t\sum_t \nabla_t^\top A_t^{-1}\nabla_t∑t​∇t⊤​At−1​∇t​ itself: term-by-term it need not be summable, since ∇t⊤At−1∇t\nabla_t^\top A_t^{-1}\nabla_t∇t⊤​At−1​∇t​ does not shrink with ttt on its own. The book's proof instead recognizes ∇t⊤At−1∇t=At−1∙(At−At−1)\nabla_t^\top A_t^{-1}\nabla_t = A_t^{-1}\bullet(A_t - A_{t-1})∇t⊤​At−1​∇t​=At−1​∙(At​−At−1​) as a discrete log-determinant increment and telescopes it against log⁡∣AT∣/∣A0∣\log|A_T|/|A_0|log∣AT​∣/∣A0​∣, using a matrix generalization of the scalar inequality a−1(a−b)≤log⁡(a/b)a^{-1}(a-b) \le \log(a/b)a−1(a−b)≤log(a/b). This determinant argument (the book's Lemma 4.7) is not itself formalized as a milestone here — see Formalization scope — so a solver of Theorem 4.5 must reconstruct or restate it.

Formalization scope

KKK, DDD, GGG and α\alphaα are the chapter's standing hypotheses, stated explicitly on every theorem rather than left as ambient unused variables, exactly as in Chapters II–III; γ\gammaγ and ε\varepsilonε are pinned to the theorem's own formulas via explicit hypotheses (hγ, hε) rather than left as free existentials — Rule 7 of the captain brief. The running matrix AtA_tAt​ is formalized as a continuous linear operator on EEE, not as a Matrix (Fin n) (Fin n) ℝ: the rank-one update uses InnerProductSpace.rankOne, and At−1A_t^{-1}At−1​ uses ContinuousLinearMap.inverse, which is total (it returns the zero map when AtA_tAt​ is not invertible, a convention that never bites here since every AtA_tAt​ is positive definite by construction — A0=εI≻0A_0 = \varepsilon I \succ 0A0​=εI≻0 and each update only adds a positive semidefinite rank-one term, so .inverse always agrees with the genuine inverse). IsOnlineNewtonStep and IsGeneralizedProjection are dimension-free, stated for a general real inner-product space; only the goal theorem and Theorem 4.4 fix E=RnE = \mathbb{R}^nE=Rn, since only their bounds mention the dimension nnn explicitly. RegretT is imported unchanged from OnlineConvexOpt.FirstOrder.Protocol (kind: reference), keeping the regret notation identical across the whole book series. A trivializing formalization is ruled out by requiring 0<α0 < \alpha0<α, 0<G0 < G0<G, 0<D0 < D0<D and KKK nonempty throughout: dropping any of these would let γ\gammaγ, ε\varepsilonε, or the bound itself degenerate (e.g. γ≤0\gamma \le 0γ≤0 would make the projection's norm ill-behaved), producing a statement that is vacuously true rather than the book's actual claim. Lemma 4.7 (the log-determinant inequality) and the exercises are not formalized: the former is a general fact about positive definite operators disconnected from the OCO-specific definitions this mission introduces, and the latter are pedagogical, not numbered results the chapter's own proofs depend on. Reusable beyond this mission: the exp-concavity definitions (IsExpConcaveOn, IsExpConcaveAt) for any later chapter's exp-concave losses (the series plan flags Chapters V and X), and the generalized-projection machinery for any future second-order OCO algorithm.

Selected references

  • T. M. Cover, Universal Portfolios, Mathematical Finance 1(1), 1991. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9965.1991.tb00002.x
  • E. Hazan, A. Agarwal, S. Kale, Logarithmic Regret Algorithms for Online Convex Optimization, Machine Learning 69(2–3), 2007. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10994-007-5016-8
  • A. Kalai, S. Vempala, Efficient Algorithms for Universal Portfolios, Journal of Machine Learning Research 3, 2003. https://www.jmlr.org/papers/v3/kalai02a.html
  • K. Azoury, M. Warmuth, Relative Loss Bounds for On-Line Density Estimation with the Exponential Family of Distributions, Machine Learning 43, 2001. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1010896012157
  • E. Hazan, Introduction to Online Convex Optimization, 2nd ed., arXiv:1909.05207v3, Chapter 4. https://arxiv.org/abs/1909.05207
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Reinforcement LearningStatistics·Captain: mikedeng1

Foundations of Reinforcement Learning V: General Decision Making and the Decision-Estimation Coefficient Lower BoundTextbook

Motivation

Online decision-making problems — multi-armed bandits, contextual bandits, structured bandits, and episodic reinforcement learning — look superficially different but share a common shape: a learner repeatedly acts, observes feedback, and is scored by regret against the best action in hindsight. Foster, Kakade, Qian and Rakhlin's Foundations of Reinforcement Learning and Interactive Decision Making (Foster & Rakhlin, arXiv:2312.16730v1) develops a unifying account of this shape and asks a sharper question than "does this specific algorithm work?": for a given class of possible environments, what is the best regret any algorithm can achieve? The Decision-Estimation Coefficient (DEC), introduced by Foster, Kakade, Qian and Rakhlin (2021, "The Statistical Complexity of Interactive Decision Making") and refined by Foster, Golowich, Qian, Rakhlin and Sekhari (2023), was proposed as the answer: a single real-valued complexity measure of a model class that simultaneously (i) drives a generic optimal-up-to-constants algorithm (Estimation-to-Decisions, E2D), and (ii) lower-bounds the regret of every algorithm. Item (ii) is what turns the DEC from "a complexity measure that happens to work for the algorithms we know" into a genuine characterization of statistical difficulty, in the same sense that minimax rates characterize the difficulty of estimation problems in classical statistics. This mission formalizes that lower bound.

Setting

Chapter 6 of the book (pp. 93–128) introduces Decision Making with Structured Observations (DMSO), a protocol general enough to subsume the contextual-bandit, structured-bandit and episodic tabular-RL protocols of earlier chapters. Over TTT rounds, the learner selects a decision πt\pi_tπt​ from a decision space Π\PiΠ; nature draws a reward-observation pair (rt,ot)(r_t, o_t)(rt​,ot​) from a fixed, unknown model M⋆(⋅∣πt)M^\star(\cdot \mid \pi_t)M⋆(⋅∣πt​), where a model MMM maps each decision to a distribution over a reward space RRR and an observation space OOO. The learner has access to a model class M\mathcal{M}M containing M⋆M^\starM⋆ (realizability). For M∈MM \in \mathcal{M}M∈M, write fM(π):=EM,π[r]f^M(\pi) := \mathbb{E}_{M,\pi}[r]fM(π):=EM,π​[r] for the mean reward function and πM:=arg⁡max⁡πfM(π)\pi_M := \arg\max_\pi f^M(\pi)πM​:=argmaxπ​fM(π) for the optimal decision; regret is Reg:=∑t=1TfM⋆(πM⋆)−Eπt∼pt[fM⋆(πt)]\mathrm{Reg} := \sum_{t=1}^T f^{M^\star}(\pi_{M^\star}) - \mathbb{E}_{\pi_t \sim p_t}[f^{M^\star}(\pi_t)]Reg:=∑t=1T​fM⋆(πM⋆​)−Eπt​∼pt​​[fM⋆(πt​)], exactly as in the bandit chapters, now for the general model class.

Because observations, not just mean rewards, now carry information, the DEC needs a way to measure distance between the full conditional distributions M(π)M(\pi)M(π) and M^(π)\hat M(\pi)M^(π), not just between scalars fM(π)f^M(\pi)fM(π) and fM^(π)f^{\hat M}(\pi)fM^(π). The chapter uses the squared Hellinger distance DH2D_H^2DH2​, one of a family of Csiszár fff-divergences that also includes total variation (DTVD_{TV}DTV​) and Kullback-Leibler (DKLD_{KL}DKL​) divergence. For a reference model M^\hat MM^ and scale γ>0\gamma > 0γ>0, the general Decision-Estimation Coefficient is the min-max game value

decγ(M,M^):=inf⁡p∈Δ(Π)sup⁡M∈MEπ∼p[fM(πM)−fM(π)−γ⋅DH2(M(π),M^(π))],\mathrm{dec}_\gamma(\mathcal{M}, \hat M) := \inf_{p \in \Delta(\Pi)} \sup_{M \in \mathcal{M}} \mathbb{E}_{\pi \sim p}\bigl[f^M(\pi_M) - f^M(\pi) - \gamma \cdot D_H^2(M(\pi), \hat M(\pi))\bigr],decγ​(M,M^):=p∈Δ(Π)inf​M∈Msup​Eπ∼p​[fM(πM​)−fM(π)−γ⋅DH2​(M(π),M^(π))],

and decγ(M):=sup⁡M^∈co(M)decγ(M,M^)\mathrm{dec}_\gamma(\mathcal{M}) := \sup_{\hat M \in \mathrm{co}(\mathcal{M})} \mathrm{dec}_\gamma(\mathcal{M}, \hat M)decγ​(M):=supM^∈co(M)​decγ​(M,M^). This mission's Lean development (FoundationsRL.GeneralDM) formalizes discrete versions of DTVD_{TV}DTV​, DH2D_H^2DH2​, DKLD_{KL}DKL​ for a finite outcome type, the DMSO regret, and this DEC.

Formalization targets

The goal is Proposition 28 (DEC Lower Bound), p. 105:

∃ c>0 (sufficiently small):∀ T with decεTc(M)≥10 εT,  εT:=c/T,  ∀ algorithm  p,  ∃ M∈M:regret(M,p)≥120 decεTc(M)⋅T.\exists\, c > 0 \text{ (sufficiently small)} : \forall\, T \text{ with } \mathrm{dec}^c_{\varepsilon_T}(\mathcal{M}) \ge 10\,\varepsilon_T,\; \varepsilon_T := c/\sqrt{T},\; \forall\, \text{algorithm}\; p,\; \exists\, M \in \mathcal{M} : \mathrm{regret}(M, p) \ge \tfrac{1}{20}\, \mathrm{dec}^c_{\varepsilon_T}(\mathcal{M}) \cdot T.∃c>0 (sufficiently small):∀T with decεT​c​(M)≥10εT​,εT​:=c/T​,∀algorithmp,∃M∈M:regret(M,p)≥201​decεT​c​(M)⋅T.

Here decεc\mathrm{dec}^c_\varepsilondecεc​ is the constrained DEC (§6.5.1), a variant of the offset DEC above that hard-constrains the information gain rather than subtracting it — a technical refinement needed to make the lower-bound direction go through — and the "localization condition" decεTc(M)≥10εT\mathrm{dec}^c_{\varepsilon_T}(\mathcal{M}) \ge 10\varepsilon_TdecεT​c​(M)≥10εT​ is a genuine hypothesis of the proposition, not a footnote. Unlike almost every other target in this series of missions, the statement quantifies over every algorithm rather than naming one: it is a genuine impossibility result. Two supporting divergence facts are included as milestones because the DEC's information-theoretic argument rests on them: Lemma 19 (DTV2≤DH2≤DKLD_{TV}^2 \le D_H^2 \le D_{KL}DTV2​≤DH2​≤DKL​) and Lemma 20 (a bounded-likelihood-ratio refinement bounding DKLD_{KL}DKL​ in terms of DH2D_H^2DH2​). The chapter's own matching upper bound, Proposition 26 (the E2D regret bound for the general DMSO protocol, the direct analogue of Chapter 4's Proposition 13), is included as a milestone to give the reader the matching pair the chapter presents together. Finally, Corollary 1 restates the lower bound in terms of the localized offset DEC (combining Proposition 28 with Proposition 27), included as a milestone showing the lower bound's reach beyond the constrained DEC alone.

Significance

Proposition 28 is what makes the DEC a genuine characterization of the statistical complexity of interactive decision making, rather than merely a sufficient condition for a particular algorithm family to succeed. Combined with the (uncited, technically deeper) matching upper bound for the constrained DEC — Proposition 29, stated but not proved in the book — it shows that for any finite model class, the constrained DEC is necessary and sufficient for low regret up to a log⁡∣M∣\sqrt{\log|\mathcal{M}|}log∣M∣​ factor in the localization radius: no complexity measure that is substantially different from the DEC can characterize the same problems. This is the general decision-making analogue of how minimax rates pin down statistical estimation, now for interactive protocols with adaptive feedback.

Formalizing the lower bound is new work: no result of this shape exists on the Prove2Me platform (searches for "decision-estimation", "general divergence", "constrained DEC" and "Hellinger" — the last of which surfaces two related-but-distinct affinity/Le Cam bounds from a different mission on bandit lower bounds — return no faithful prior art; see MODERATION_NOTES.md). The formal statement is the boxed proposition; the book gives a self-contained but simplified proof (two named simplifying assumptions, §6.5.3) and cites Foster, Golowich, Qian, Rakhlin & Sekhari (2023) for the unrestricted argument. This mission's Lean items are draft statements (:= by sorry), not proofs; formalizing the proof itself — a two-point adaptive testing argument using the chain rule for KL divergence and a change-of-measure step — is the open contribution this mission proposes.

Difficulty

The obvious first attempt is to try to prove the lower bound by exhibiting one fixed pair of hard models M,M^M, \hat MM,M^, as in classical two-point minimax lower bounds (Le Cam's method, Fano's inequality). This fails here because the decision-making protocol is interactive and adaptive: the algorithm's queries depend on what it has observed, so a model pair chosen obliviously (before seeing the algorithm) cannot in general be made indistinguishable to every algorithm — an adaptive algorithm can be constructed that distinguishes any two fixed models quickly by querying where they differ. The book's proof instead selects the "hard" alternative model MMM as a function of the algorithm's own strategy (via the constrained DEC's arg max, Eq. (6.36)), so that the pair is hard specifically for the algorithm under consideration, then uses the chain rule for KL divergence plus the change-of-measure identity between the algorithm's induced distributions under MMM and M^\hat MM^ to conclude that the algorithm's realized decisions must look similar under both models — hence it cannot get low regret on both simultaneously. Every step of this argument depends on the exact game structure of the constrained DEC, not just its numerical value; a formalization that leaves decεc\mathrm{dec}^c_\varepsilondecεc​ as an unconstrained real parameter (rather than the actual inf⁡\infinf-sup⁡\supsup game with its information-gain constraint) would make the lower bound's conclusion vacuous, since the hypothesis decεTc(M)≥10εT\mathrm{dec}^c_{\varepsilon_T}(\mathcal{M}) \ge 10\varepsilon_TdecεT​c​(M)≥10εT​ would no longer track any actual property of M\mathcal{M}M.

Formalization scope

The decision space Π\PiΠ and the outcome (reward, observation) alphabet YYY are both taken as finite types (Fintype); a model m:Π→Y→Rm : \Pi \to Y \to \mathbb{R}m:Π→Y→R is a conditional probability vector, and a reward-extraction map rew:Y→R\mathrm{rew} : Y \to \mathbb{R}rew:Y→R recovers the mean reward fm(π)=∑ym(π)(y)⋅rew(y)f^m(\pi) = \sum_y m(\pi)(y)\cdot\mathrm{rew}(y)fm(π)=∑y​m(π)(y)⋅rew(y). hellingerSq, totalVariationDiscrete, klDivDiscrete specialize the book's general dominating-measure divergence formula (Eq. (6.5)) to the counting measure on this finite type; klDivDiscrete returns an ENNReal so its +∞+\infty+∞ case (when PPP is not absolutely continuous w.r.t. QQQ) is represented honestly. The DEC, the constrained DEC and the localized subclass are literal sInf-of-sSup/sSup-of-sSup transcriptions of the book's min-max games — the same convention this series uses for the Chapter-4 DEC — not opaque free real numbers, which rules out the trivializing formalization named above.

Three deviations from this series' usual convention of pinning every constant to the value the book's own proof derives are deliberate and disclosed. First, the numerical constant ccc in εT:=c/T\varepsilon_T := c/\sqrt{T}εT​:=c/T​ is explicitly called "not important" by the authors themselves (footnote a, p. 105); it is existentially quantified (∃ c > 0) rather than pinned to a numeral. Second — added at moderation, round 2, 2026-09-19, after the constant was found to be pinned incorrectly — the lower bound's own multiplicative constant is also existentially quantified (∃ c' > 0) rather than pinned to 1/20. The book's printed proof (§6.5.3, pp. 107–110) derives 1/20 (p. 110, not p. 109 as an earlier draft of this mission stated) only under two named simplifying assumptions the theorem's hypotheses do not carry (p. 107, "Simplifications": a class-wide bounded-curvature hypothesis, Eq. (6.34); and a bound on the unaugmented sup⁡M^∈Mdeccε(M,M^)\sup_{\hat M\in\mathcal M}\mathrm{decc}_\varepsilon(M,\hat M)supM^∈M​deccε​(M,M^) rather than the officially-defined, augmented deccε(M)=sup⁡M^∈co(M)deccε(M∪{M^},M^)\mathrm{decc}_\varepsilon(M) = \sup_{\hat M\in\mathrm{co}(\mathcal M)} \mathrm{decc}_\varepsilon(M\cup\{\hat M\},\hat M)deccε​(M)=supM^∈co(M)​deccε​(M∪{M^},M^) this mission's decC implements). Since augmenting either supremum's domain can only raise its value, the printed proof's bound on the narrower, unaugmented quantity does not license a pinned 1/20 against the fully general decC this theorem states; the book itself attributes the proof of the general statement to an external reference (Foster, Golowich, Qian, Rakhlin & Sekhari 2023) not in this document. The existential c' matches the book's own unpinned ≳\gtrsim≳ for Proposition 28 as printed on pp. 105–106. Third, "any algorithm" and E[Reg(T)]\mathbb{E}[\mathrm{Reg}(T)]E[Reg(T)] are formalized, as throughout this series, without a full stochastic-process/history model: regret is a deterministic quantity evaluated at a fixed realized decision-distribution sequence p:Fin T→Π→Rp : \mathrm{Fin}\,T \to \Pi \to \mathbb{R}p:FinT→Π→R, rather than an expectation over an adaptive, history-dependent algorithm's own randomness. Formalizing the fully adaptive, measure-theoretic version of "any algorithm" — with an explicit filtration and expectation over the induced process law PMP_MPM​ — is future work a solver could add; the current statement is faithful to the book's deterministic-per-realization content but not to its full generality over randomized, history-dependent strategies. The DMSO protocol (Def_FoundationsRL_GeneralDM_Protocol) and the DEC (Def_FoundationsRL_GeneralDM_DEC) are restated locally rather than imported from Chapter 4's mission (FoundationsRL.Structured), since draft items cannot import another chunk's drafts; contributions extending either mission to reuse the other's substrate once both are published are welcome.

Selected references

  • Foster, D. J., Kakade, S. M., Qian, J., & Rakhlin, A. (2023). Foundations of Reinforcement Learning and Interactive Decision Making. arXiv:2312.16730.
  • Foster, D. J., Kakade, S. M., Qian, J., & Rakhlin, A. (2021). The Statistical Complexity of Interactive Decision Making. arXiv:2112.13487.
  • Foster, D. J., Golowich, N., Qian, J., Rakhlin, A., & Sekhari, A. (2023). A Unified Model and Dimension for Interactive Estimation. arXiv:2306.06184.
  • Polyanskiy, Y., & Wu, Y. Information Theory: From Coding to Learning. Cambridge University Press (draft edition cited by the book as [68]).
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Convex OptimizationOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Introduction to Online Convex Optimization XI: Boosting via Online Convex OptimizationTextbook

Motivation

A "rule of thumb" classifier — a single pixel's brightness distinguishing handwritten "0" from "1" — is trivial to produce and barely better than a coin flip. A rule that gets every example right is, in general, far harder. Boosting asks whether many weak, easy-to-produce rules can be combined into one strong, hard-to-produce rule, and Chapter 11 answers it via a black-box reduction: any online convex optimization algorithm with sublinear regret, paired with access to a weak learner, yields a boosting algorithm — the same OCO-to-learning-theory template Chapter IX used for generalization, now applied to training-set fitting.

Setting

A concept class HHH is γ\gammaγ-weakly-learnable (Definition 11.1) if some algorithm, given enough labeled samples, returns a hypothesis with error at most 12−γ\frac12-\gamma21​−γ with high probability — better than random guessing by a fixed margin γ\gammaγ, far short of the arbitrarily-small error strong (PAC) learning demands. Section 11.2.1 fixes a simplified setting: binary zero-one loss, a realizable concept class (some h⋆∈Hh^\star \in Hh⋆∈H has zero error), and a weak-learning oracle W(p,δ′)W(p,\delta')W(p,δ′) returning, on distribution ppp over a fixed sample SSS of size mmm, a hypothesis with Pr⁡[errorp(W(p,δ′))≥12−γ]≤δ′\Pr[\mathrm{error}_p(W(p,\delta')) \ge \frac12-\gamma] \le \delta'Pr[errorp​(W(p,δ′))≥21​−γ]≤δ′.

Algorithm 34 runs an OCO algorithm AOCOA_{\mathrm{OCO}}AOCO​ over the mmm-dimensional simplex Δm\Delta_mΔm​ (distributions over the sample): at each round it calls the weak learner on the current distribution ptp_tpt​, builds the {0,1}\{0,1\}{0,1}-valued cost vector rtr_trt​ recording which examples hth_tht​ got right, updates pt+1←AOCO(f1,…,ft)p_{t+1} \leftarrow A_{\mathrm{OCO}}(f_1,\dots,f_t)pt+1​←AOCO​(f1​,…,ft​) for the linear cost ft(p)=rt⊤pf_t(p) = r_t^\top pft​(p)=rt⊤​p, and finally outputs the majority vote hˉ(x)=sign(∑t=1Tht(x))\bar h(x) = \mathrm{sign}(\sum_{t=1}^T h_t(x))hˉ(x)=sign(∑t=1T​ht​(x)).

Formalization targets

Theorem 11.2 — the mission's sole target (goal)

For TTT chosen so 1TRegretT(AOCO)≤γ2\frac1T\mathrm{Regret}_T(A_{\mathrm{OCO}}) \le \frac\gamma2T1​RegretT​(AOCO​)≤2γ​, Algorithm 34 returns hˉ\bar hhˉ with Pr⁡[errorS(hˉ)=0]≥1−δ\Pr[\mathrm{error}_S(\bar h) = 0] \ge 1-\deltaPr[errorS​(hˉ)=0]≥1−δ: with high probability, hˉ\bar hhˉ classifies the entire training sample SSS perfectly.

Significance

This is one of the cleanest reduction theorems in the book: it needs no property of the weak learner beyond its γ\gammaγ-margin guarantee, and no property of the OCO algorithm beyond a regret bound — any of Chapters III–X's algorithms (multiplicative weights, OGD, RFTL, ONS...) plugs in directly, and §11.2.3 specializes the reduction with multiplicative weights to recover a close relative of AdaBoost, one of machine learning's most influential algorithms. The proof technique — a contradiction argument on the existence of a "hard" residual distribution p⋆p^\starp⋆ uniform over the misclassified examples — is itself instructive and structurally different from Chapter IX's martingale/concentration argument, despite both chapters being "OCO implies a learning-theoretic guarantee" reductions. No prior art was found on the platform for boosting or AdaBoost (planning search: q=boosting, q=AdaBoost — 0 hits); this mission drafts the theorem fresh.

Difficulty

The proof's key step packages the algorithm's regret guarantee (a worst-case statement, true for every cost sequence including an adversarially-constructed one) into a proof by contradiction: assuming some nonempty set of misclassified examples SϕS_\phiSϕ​ survives, the uniform distribution p⋆p^\starp⋆ over SϕS_\phiSϕ​ is shown to make every hth_tht​ perform at best exactly at the 12\frac1221​ threshold on average (since hˉ\bar hhˉ's sign disagrees with the true label on every point of SϕS_\phiSϕ​, at most half of the TTT rounds' hypotheses can have agreed there), while the weak-learner guarantee (via a union bound over all TTT rounds) forces the actual played distributions ptp_tpt​ to see ≥12+γ\ge\frac12+\gamma≥21​+γ average performance — and the algorithm's low regret against p⋆p^\starp⋆ specifically then closes the gap into an outright contradiction (12+γ≤12+γ2\frac12+\gamma \le \frac12 + \frac\gamma221​+γ≤21​+2γ​, impossible for γ>0\gamma>0γ>0). This chain — union bound over rounds, regret bound against one specific (adversarially-identified) comparator, and an averaging argument over the residual set — is more intricate than its short proof suggests.

Formalization scope

EmpiricalErrorWeighted/EmpiricalError give the (weighted and uniform) training-error quantities exactly as the book states them, with real-valued (±1) labels and predictions — the convention this chapter's sign-based majority vote needs, distinct from Chapter IX's Bool-valued zero-one loss (a deliberate, chunk-local choice, not a conflict, since the two chapters use different label conventions for different reasons — see MODERATION_NOTES.md). IsBoostingRun formalizes Algorithm 34's five lines, with the weak learner's round-t call modeled as a random hypothesis h_t : Ω → X → ℝ (since a weak-learning call is itself probabilistic) rather than a deterministic function, matching the book's own probabilistic per-call guarantee. The goal theorem states the weak-learner guarantee (hweak), the OCO regret guarantee (hA), and the choice of T (hTreg) as explicit hypotheses, per BRIEF.md's own instruction that these are the theorem's real content, not incidental setup. h̄ is typed as an arbitrary X → ℝ, never coerced into H — the book's own explicit remark that the boosted hypothesis need not belong to the original weak-hypothesis class.

This chunk has no milestones: Chapter 11 is short and largely monolithic around Theorem 11.2, with Section 11.2.1 ("Simplification of the setting") and 11.2.2 ("Algorithm and analysis") building directly to it with no other numbered lemma on the relevant pages (PDF 207–211). Definition 11.1 (weak learnability) is drafted as a definition, not manufactured into a milestone, per CAPTAIN_BRIEF.md's own rule that definitions are never milestones and BRIEF.md's explicit allowance for a mission with fewer than 3. §11.2.3's AdaBoost specialization (a corollary discussion, not a separately numbered theorem on these pages) is not formalized.

Selected references

  • E. Hazan, Introduction to Online Convex Optimization, 2nd ed., arXiv:1909.05207v3, Chapter 11.
  • R.E. Schapire, "The strength of weak learnability," Machine Learning 5(2), 1990, 197-227.
  • Y. Freund, R.E. Schapire, "A decision-theoretic generalization of on-line learning and an application to boosting," Journal of Computer and System Sciences 55(1), 1997, 119-139 (AdaBoost).
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Convex OptimizationOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Introduction to Online Convex Optimization X: Efficient Adaptive Regret for Online Convex OptimizationTextbook

Motivation

Every regret guarantee through Chapter IX compares the algorithm to the single best fixed decision in hindsight. That comparison is meaningless when the environment itself changes: a commuter's best route differs on weekdays versus weekends, an investor's best portfolio differs in a bull versus a bear market. A standard sublinear-regret algorithm, competing against one static comparator, will converge to some average compromise between regimes — exactly the wrong behavior when the regimes are genuinely different. Chapter 10 develops adaptive regret, a strictly stronger performance metric that demands low regret on every contiguous sub-interval of time simultaneously, and an efficient algorithm (Simple-FLH) that attains it for any base OCO algorithm at only a logarithmic additive cost.

Setting

For a comparator sequence u1,…,uTu_1,\dots,u_Tu1​,…,uT​ with path length P(u1,…,uT)=∑t=1T−1∥ut−ut+1∥+1P(u_1,\dots,u_T) = \sum_{t=1}^{T-1}\|u_t-u_{t+1}\|+1P(u1​,…,uT​)=∑t=1T−1​∥ut​−ut+1​∥+1, the dynamic regret DynamicRegretT(A,u)=∑tft(xt)−∑tft(ut)\mathrm{DynamicRegret}_T(A,u) = \sum_t f_t(x_t) - \sum_t f_t(u_t)DynamicRegretT​(A,u)=∑t​ft​(xt​)−∑t​ft​(ut​) measures performance against a moving target (§10.1). The chapter's central object, adaptive regret (Definition 10.2), instead takes the supremum of ordinary regret over every contiguous sub-interval [r,s]⊆[T][r,s]\subseteq[T][r,s]⊆[T]:

AdaptiveRegretT(A)=sup⁡[r,s]⊆[T]{∑t=rsft(xt)−min⁡x⋆∈K∑t=rsft(x⋆)}.\mathrm{AdaptiveRegret}_T(A) = \sup_{[r,s]\subseteq[T]}\Big\{\sum_{t=r}^s f_t(x_t) - \min_{x^\star\in K}\sum_{t=r}^s f_t(x^\star)\Big\}.AdaptiveRegretT​(A)=[r,s]⊆[T]sup​{t=r∑s​ft​(xt​)−x⋆∈Kmin​t=r∑s​ft​(x⋆)}.

An algorithm is strongly adaptive if its adaptive regret matches its ordinary regret up to logarithmic factors in TTT (§10.2.1).

The chapter builds toward this via the Fixed-Share algorithm (§10.3, Algorithm 30) — a variant of Hedge for the discrete expert-tracking problem, adding a uniform exploration term to each round's multiplicative update so that no expert's weight can vanish entirely — and then lifts it (§10.4) to the continuous OCO setting via Simple-FLH (Algorithm 32): run one fresh copy of a base OCO algorithm AAA per starting time 1,…,T1,\dots,T1,…,T, and apply Fixed-Share to this set of TTT "experts."

Formalization targets

Theorem 10.1 (dynamic regret, milestone)

Online gradient descent with constant step size η>0\eta > 0η>0 satisfies, for every comparator sequence u∈Ku \in Ku∈K,

DynamicRegretT(A,u)≤3D22ηP(u1,…,uT)+η2G2T.\mathrm{DynamicRegret}_T(A,u) \le \frac{3D^2}{2\eta}P(u_1,\dots,u_T) + \frac\eta2 G^2T.DynamicRegretT​(A,u)≤2η3D2​P(u1​,…,uT​)+2η​G2T.

Theorem 10.3 (Fixed-Share tracking regret, milestone)

Given α\alphaα-exp-concave losses, Fixed-Share with δ=1/(2T)\delta=1/(2T)δ=1/(2T) guarantees, for every interval [r,s][r,s][r,s] and every expert iii,

∑t=rsft(xt)−∑t=rsft(xti)≤1αlog⁡(2NT)+1α.\sum_{t=r}^s f_t(x_t) - \sum_{t=r}^s f_t(x^i_t) \le \frac1\alpha\log(2NT) + \frac1\alpha.t=r∑s​ft​(xt​)−t=r∑s​ft​(xti​)≤α1​log(2NT)+α1​.

Theorem 10.6 — the mission's goal

Simple-FLH guarantees

AdaptiveRegretT(Simple-FLH)≤RegretT(A)+1αlog⁡(2T2)+1α.\mathrm{AdaptiveRegret}_T(\text{Simple-FLH}) \le \mathrm{Regret}_T(A) + \frac1\alpha\log(2T^2) + \frac1\alpha.AdaptiveRegretT​(Simple-FLH)≤RegretT​(A)+α1​log(2T2)+α1​.

Significance

Theorem 10.6 answers §10.2.1's own question — are there algorithms simultaneously optimal in ordinary regret and adaptive regret? — affirmatively and constructively: Simple-FLH pays only an additive O(1αlog⁡T)O(\frac1\alpha\log T)O(α1​logT) over whatever regret its base algorithm AAA already achieves, for any α\alphaα-exp-concave-loss algorithm AAA (in particular, taking AAA to be the Online Newton Step algorithm of Chapter IV gives an adaptive-regret algorithm with no asymptotic cost at all). This is the chapter's capstone reduction, structurally similar to Chapter IX's OCO-to-PAC reduction: a generic wrapper around any algorithm in a broad class, converting one guarantee into a strictly stronger one. No prior art was found on the platform for adaptive regret, dynamic regret, or Fixed-Share (planning search: q=adaptive+regret, q=dynamic+regret, q=tracking+regret — no hits); this mission drafts all three results fresh.

Difficulty

Theorem 10.1's proof adapts Theorem 3.1's telescoping-sum argument to a moving comparator, picking up an extra term ∑txt⊤(ut−1−ut)\sum_t x_t^\top(u_{t-1}-u_t)∑t​xt⊤​(ut−1​−ut​) that Cauchy–Schwarz and the diameter bound convert into the path length P(u)P(u)P(u) — a genuinely different quantity from T\sqrt TT​ regret, not a trivial corollary. Theorem 10.3's proof (Lemma 10.4, an exp-concavity-driven potential argument structurally parallel to Hedge's own analysis in Chapter I) tracks how the fixed-share exploration term δ/N\delta/Nδ/N prevents any expert's weight from decaying below a usable floor, so that even an expert active only over a short sub-interval [r,s][r,s][r,s] still has enough accumulated weight at time rrr for the argument to close — the sup-over-all-intervals form of the guarantee is exactly what this floor buys. Theorem 10.6's own proof is comparatively short (a direct application of Theorem 10.3 to Simple-FLH's experts, instantiated at the expert matching the interval's own start point), but depends on both of the preceding results' analyses for its correctness.

Formalization scope

AdaptiveRegretT is stated as a genuine supremum over a finite index set (subintervals of [0,T-1]), so it is a maximum, never a real-suprema-of-an-unbounded-set junk value — the chapter brief's own flagged pitfall (do not state it as a sum or average). ExpConcave is redeclared locally (Chapter IV's own exp-concavity is not yet a published series definition; see MODERATION_NOTES.md). IsFixedShareRun gives expert decisions xi as external data (matching the book's own treatment, where "an expert i suggests decision x^i_t" is not itself part of Fixed-Share's specification) — Theorem 10.3 is drafted at this level of generality, applying to Fixed-Share on any experts, matching how the book itself proves it once and reuses it for Simple-FLH. The goal (Theorem 10.6) connects Simple-FLH's experts to the base algorithm A via the one property the book's own proof actually uses — each expert's interval-regret bound inherited from A — rather than mechanizing Algorithm 32's exact re-indexing formula for starting a fresh copy of A at each round, which never enters the numerical bound; see MODERATION_NOTES.md. Three of this chapter's headline results (Theorems 10.1, 10.3, 10.6) are stated in the book with a bare O(·); per CAPTAIN_BRIEF.md rule 7 and BRIEF.md's explicit guidance, this mission uses the explicit constant each proof actually derives instead (Theorem 10.1's own η-parametrized inequality before the unstated optimal choice of η; Theorems 10.3 and 10.6's own final displayed bounds before they are folded into O(·) notation).

Not formalized: Definition 10.2's own generalization to kkk-shifting comparators (a remark, not a numbered theorem), §10.2.1's tightness/lower-bound claims (left as exercises in the book, no proof given), Lemma 10.4 (an intermediate step whose content is folded directly into Theorem 10.3's own explicit bound), and §10.5's starred FLH2 (Theorem 10.7, poly-logarithmic running time) — an advanced, optional stretch goal per BRIEF.md, not attempted given the chapter's non-starred primary goal (Theorem 10.6) was reachable within budget.

Selected references

  • E. Hazan, Introduction to Online Convex Optimization, 2nd ed., arXiv:1909.05207v3, Chapter 10.
  • M. Herbster, M. Warmuth, "Tracking the best expert," Machine Learning 32(2), 1998, 151-178 (the Fixed-Share algorithm).
  • A. Daniely, A. Gonen, S. Shalev-Shwartz, "Strongly adaptive online learning," ICML 2015 (FLH/Simple-FLH).
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Introduction to Online Convex Optimization II: Convergence Rates for Well-Conditioned Convex OptimizationTextbook

Motivation

Convex optimization — minimizing a convex function over a convex set — is the offline problem that online convex optimization (OCO) generalizes: an OCO algorithm run against a single, fixed cost function repeated every round is exactly an algorithm for this classical problem. Its convergence theory, developed over decades and surveyed comprehensively in Nesterov [Introductory Lectures on Convex Optimization, 2004] and Boyd and Vandenberghe [Convex Optimization, 2004], supplies the analytical toolkit — potential functions, strong convexity, smoothness — that every regret bound in the rest of this book reuses. This chapter is the book's own self-contained account of that toolkit: it proves nothing about regret or adversaries, but the algorithms and inequalities it establishes for gradient descent recur, essentially unchanged, in the online setting three chapters later.

The chapter's own capstone, a linear convergence rate under a joint strong-convexity and smoothness assumption, traces to Nesterov's classical analysis of gradient descent under a condition-number bound; the Polyak step size predates it, going back to Polyak's 1969 subgradient method for problems with a known optimal value.

Setting

Fix a real, complete inner product space EEE (a Hilbert space) and a convex, closed set K⊆EK \subseteq EK⊆E, the decision set. A function f:E→Rf : E \to \mathbb{R}f:E→R is α\alphaα-strongly convex (with gradient map g:E→Eg : E \to Eg:E→E) if for every x,y∈Ex, y \in Ex,y∈E,

f(y)≥f(x)+⟨g(x),y−x⟩+α2∥y−x∥2,f(y) \ge f(x) + \langle g(x), y - x\rangle + \frac{\alpha}{2}\|y-x\|^2,f(y)≥f(x)+⟨g(x),y−x⟩+2α​∥y−x∥2,

and β\betaβ-smooth if for every x,y∈Ex, y \in Ex,y∈E,

f(y)≤f(x)+⟨g(x),y−x⟩+β2∥y−x∥2.f(y) \le f(x) + \langle g(x), y - x\rangle + \frac{\beta}{2}\|y-x\|^2.f(y)≤f(x)+⟨g(x),y−x⟩+2β​∥y−x∥2.

Strong convexity lower-bounds fff by a quadratic of curvature at least α\alphaα at every point; smoothness upper-bounds it by a quadratic of curvature at most β\betaβ. When fff is twice differentiable these say αI⪯∇2f(x)⪯βI\alpha I \preceq \nabla^2 f(x) \preceq \beta IαI⪯∇2f(x)⪯βI for every xxx. A function that is both is called γ\gammaγ-well-conditioned, where γ:=α/β≤1\gamma := \alpha/\beta \le 1γ:=α/β≤1 is its condition number.

Write x⋆x^\starx⋆ for a minimizer of fff (over EEE, or over KKK in the constrained case), and for any point xxx define three measures of distance to optimality: the value gap hx:=f(x)−f(x⋆)h_x := f(x) - f(x^\star)hx​:=f(x)−f(x⋆), the Euclidean distance dx:=∥x−x⋆∥d_x := \|x - x^\star\|dx​:=∥x−x⋆∥, and the gradient norm ∥∇x∥:=∥g(x)∥\|\nabla_x\| := \|g(x)\|∥∇x​∥:=∥g(x)∥. Gradient descent starts at x0x_0x0​ and iterates xt+1=xt−ηtg(xt)x_{t+1} = x_t - \eta_t g(x_t)xt+1​=xt​−ηt​g(xt​) for a step-size schedule ηt\eta_tηt​; in the constrained case each step is followed by a projection xt+1=ΠK(yt+1)x_{t+1} = \Pi_K(y_{t+1})xt+1​=ΠK​(yt+1​) back onto KKK.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 2.6 (linear convergence for well-conditioned functions)

ht+1≤h1⋅e−γt/4for every t≥0,h_{t+1} \le h_1 \cdot e^{-\gamma t / 4} \qquad \text{for every } t \ge 0,ht+1​≤h1​⋅e−γt/4for every t≥0,

for constrained gradient descent (Algorithm 4) on a γ\gammaγ-well-conditioned fff over KKK, with the constant step size ηt=1/β\eta_t = 1/\betaηt​=1/β. This is the chapter's strongest rate: for the best-conditioned class of functions it considers, the optimality gap shrinks by a constant factor every round, rather than polynomially in ttt.

Milestone: Theorem 2.2 (KKT optimality condition)

⟨∇f(x⋆),y−x⋆⟩≥0for every y∈K,\langle \nabla f(x^\star), y - x^\star\rangle \ge 0 \quad \text{for every } y \in K,⟨∇f(x⋆),y−x⋆⟩≥0for every y∈K,

when x⋆x^\starx⋆ minimizes fff over a convex KKK. The multi-dimensional first-order optimality condition for constrained minimization, generalizing ∇f(x⋆)=0\nabla f(x^\star) = 0∇f(x⋆)=0 in the unconstrained case (K=EK = EK=E).

Milestone: Theorem 2.3 (GD with the Polyak step size)

f(xˉ)−f(x⋆)≤min⁡{Gd0T, 2βd02T, 3G2αT, βd02(1−γ4)T},f(\bar{x}) - f(x^\star) \le \min\left\{\frac{Gd_0}{\sqrt{T}},\ \frac{2\beta d_0^2}{T},\ \frac{3G^2}{\alpha T},\ \beta d_0^2\Big(1-\frac{\gamma}{4}\Big)^T\right\},f(xˉ)−f(x⋆)≤min{T​Gd0​​, T2βd02​​, αT3G2​, βd02​(1−4γ​)T},

for unconstrained gradient descent with step size ηt=ht/∥∇t∥2\eta_t = h_t/\|\nabla_t\|^2ηt​=ht​/∥∇t​∥2, where xˉ\bar xxˉ achieves the smallest value among x0,…,xTx_0,\dots,x_Tx0​,…,xT​. A single algorithm, needing no prior knowledge of α\alphaα, β\betaβ, or GGG beyond the (assumed available) optimal value f(x⋆)f(x^\star)f(x⋆), automatically attains whichever of the four rates applies to fff.

Milestone: Lemma 2.4 (potential-function relations)

For α\alphaα-strongly-convex and β\betaβ-smooth fff, at every point xxx:

α2dx2≤hx,hx≤β2dx2,12β∥∇x∥2≤hx,hx≤12α∥∇x∥2.\frac{\alpha}{2}d_x^2 \le h_x, \qquad h_x \le \frac{\beta}{2}d_x^2, \qquad \frac{1}{2\beta}\|\nabla_x\|^2 \le h_x, \qquad h_x \le \frac{1}{2\alpha}\|\nabla_x\|^2.2α​dx2​≤hx​,hx​≤2β​dx2​,2β1​∥∇x​∥2≤hx​,hx​≤2α1​∥∇x​∥2.

The chapter's basic toolkit: four inequalities letting a proof substitute one measure of progress (value gap, distance, gradient norm) for another as needed.

Significance

Theorem 2.6 is the model result behind every subsequent linear-rate claim in convex optimization: it isolates the exact mechanism (strong convexity plus smoothness, combined multiplicatively through the condition number) that turns a 1/T1/\sqrt{T}1/T​ or 1/T1/T1/T rate into an e−Ω(t)e^{-\Omega(t)}e−Ω(t) one. Theorem 2.3 demonstrates the opposite phenomenon — a single step-size rule that adapts to whatever structure fff happens to have, without needing to know which structure that is — a design principle the book's later chapters (adaptive regret, adaptive gradient methods) return to repeatedly. Lemma 2.4 is used directly inside the book's own proof of Theorem 2.6 and is stated separately because later chapters cite its four bounds individually.

None of these four statements has a machine-checked proof on the platform prior to this mission (see Formalization scope). Formalizing them establishes strong convexity and smoothness, in the book's own quadratic-bound form, as reusable definitions, together with the constrained- and unconstrained-gradient-descent update rules that Chapter III's online algorithm specializes.

Difficulty

The linear rate of Theorem 2.6 does not follow from Lemma 2.4 alone: chaining the smoothness upper bound and the strong-convexity lower bound gives only a bound relating ht+1h_{t+1}ht+1​ to dt2d_t^2dt2​, not to hth_tht​ itself, and a naive one-step decrease argument stalls at a rate of 1−γ1 - \gamma1−γ per round rather than 1−γ/41 - \gamma/41−γ/4 — the factor of four comes from combining the projection's contraction property (the constrained analogue of Theorem 2.3's telescoping argument) with the smoothness bound simultaneously, not from either alone. The Polyak step size of Theorem 2.3 is remarkable, and its analysis correspondingly delicate, because the step size ηt=ht/∥∇t∥2\eta_t = h_t/\|\nabla_t\|^2ηt​=ht​/∥∇t​∥2 depends on the unknown optimal value f(x⋆)f(x^\star)f(x⋆) through hth_tht​; the proof must derive all four regimes (general convex, smooth, strongly convex, well-conditioned) of BTB_TBT​ from the same one-line per-round inequality, rather than running four separate arguments.

Formalization scope

EEE is formalized as an arbitrary real, complete inner product space, not fixed to Rd\mathbb{R}^dRd, matching this book's chapter-wide convention (Chapter III's mission of this series does the same). Strong convexity and smoothness are formalized in the book's own quadratic-bound form with an explicit gradient map ggg as a separate parameter (not tied to fff by automatic differentiation), rather than via the second-derivative characterization; a theorem needing ggg to be the actual gradient of fff adds that as a separate hypothesis. This avoids a trivializing formalization under which the predicate could be satisfied by an unrelated ggg: every theorem here that uses StronglyConvexOn/SmoothOn also assumes g is a global gradient map for f. Theorem 2.3's realized-gradient bound ∥∇t∥≤G\|\nabla_t\| \le G∥∇t​∥≤G is formalized only over the run's own iterates x0,…,xTx_0,\dots,x_Tx0​,…,xT​ (not as a global Lipschitz bound on fff), matching the book's own statement ("assuming ∥∇t∥≤G\|\nabla_t\|\le G∥∇t​∥≤G"): a global gradient bound would be jointly unsatisfiable with global strong convexity on any infinite-dimensional or unbounded EEE, since a strongly convex function's gradient grows without bound away from its minimizer. Sequences are 0-indexed, so a book statement at round t+1t{+}1t+1 (1-indexed) is stated here at index ttt; each theorem's docstring records the exact shift. The projection in Algorithm 4 reuses OnlineConvexOpt.FirstOrder.IsMetricProjection, already published for this series' Chapter III, rather than redeclaring it.

Theorem 2.10 (the chapter's further, book-stated-without-proof rate) is out of scope: the book explicitly defers its proof to outside references, so it cannot be a faithful milestone under this platform's provenance requirement. Section 2.4's reductions of non-smooth or non-strongly-convex problems to this chapter's setting (via randomized smoothing) are left for a future extension, since they introduce a new construction not needed by the goal or its milestones.

Selected references

  • Hazan, E. Introduction to Online Convex Optimization, 2nd ed. arXiv:1909.05207v3, Chapter 2. https://arxiv.org/abs/1909.05207
  • Nesterov, Y. Introductory Lectures on Convex Optimization: A Basic Course. Springer, 2004. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4419-8853-9
  • Boyd, S. and Vandenberghe, L. Convex Optimization. Cambridge University Press, 2004. https://web.stanford.edu/~boyd/cvxbook/
  • Polyak, B. T. Minimization of Unsmooth Functionals. USSR Computational Mathematics and Mathematical Physics 9(3), 1969. https://doi.org/10.1016/0041-5553(69)90061-5
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High-Dimensional Probability II: Concentration Inequalities for Sums of Independent Random VariablesTextbook

Motivation

The central limit theorem tells us that a normalized sum of independent random variables converges in distribution to a Gaussian. For applications — bounding the failure probability of a randomized algorithm, controlling the error of a Monte Carlo estimator, proving a generalization bound in learning theory — a limiting distribution is not enough: what is needed is a single, explicit, non-asymptotic inequality that holds for every fixed sample size NNN, not merely as N→∞N \to \inftyN→∞. Hoeffding's inequality (Wassily Hoeffding, 1963) and Bernstein's inequality (Sergei Bernstein, 1920s–1940s, in the form used here due to Vadim Bennett and later authors) are the two archetypal answers: both give an explicit Gaussian-type tail bound for a weighted sum of independent random variables, valid for every NNN, with all constants made explicit. They are the workhorses behind concentration of measure, high-dimensional statistics, and the non-asymptotic analysis of randomized algorithms; a textbook trying to reach the Johnson–Lindenstrauss lemma, random matrix norms, or the restricted isometry property has to pass through this chapter first, because every one of those results is itself an application of a weighted-sum concentration inequality to a specific choice of random variables.

The central limit theorem's own error term is the obstruction that direct concentration inequalities are built to avoid: the Berry–Esseen theorem (Andrew C. Berry, 1941; Carl-Gustav Esseen, 1942) bounds the normal approximation's error at order 1/N1/\sqrt N1/N​, which is too slow to recover a genuinely exponential tail bound for finite NNN. Hoeffding's and Bernstein's inequalities are proved instead by a direct argument — bounding the moment generating function of the sum and optimizing a Markov/Chernoff exponential tilt — that never invokes the central limit theorem or its error term at all.

The sub-gaussian and sub-exponential norms

Fix a probability space (Ω,F,P)(\Omega, \mathcal F, P)(Ω,F,P). For a real random variable XXX on (Ω,F,P)(\Omega, \mathcal F, P)(Ω,F,P), define its sub-gaussian norm

∥X∥ψ2:=inf⁡{t>0:Eexp⁡(X2/t2) is finite and ≤2}\|X\|_{\psi_2} := \inf\{t > 0 : \mathbb E \exp(X^2/t^2) \text{ is finite and } \le 2\}∥X∥ψ2​​:=inf{t>0:Eexp(X2/t2) is finite and ≤2}

and its sub-exponential norm

∥X∥ψ1:=inf⁡{t>0:Eexp⁡(∣X∣/t) is finite and ≤2}.\|X\|_{\psi_1} := \inf\{t > 0 : \mathbb E \exp(|X|/t) \text{ is finite and } \le 2\}.∥X∥ψ1​​:=inf{t>0:Eexp(∣X∣/t) is finite and ≤2}.

In both definitions, the requirement that the exponential moment be finite (i.e. that the moment-generating integrand be integrable), and not merely satisfy "≤2\le 2≤2" as a bare inequality, is essential: without it a moment that is genuinely infinite for a given ttt would vacuously count as "≤2\le 2≤2" under the Bochner integral's convention that a non-integrable function integrates to 000, and every random variable — however heavy-tailed — would trivially have norm 000. XXX is called sub-gaussian (respectively sub-exponential) when this infimum is over a nonempty set, i.e. when some finite ttt makes the moment finite and at most 222. These are genuine norms (up to the identification of almost-surely-equal random variables) on the vector space of random variables for which they are finite, and they are the natural non-asymptotic yardsticks for tail heaviness: ∥X∥ψ2<∞\|X\|_{\psi_2} < \infty∥X∥ψ2​​<∞ characterizes a Gaussian-type tail P{∣X∣≥t}≤2exp⁡(−ct2/∥X∥ψ22)P\{|X| \ge t\} \le 2\exp(-ct^2/\|X\|_{\psi_2}^2)P{∣X∣≥t}≤2exp(−ct2/∥X∥ψ2​2​), while ∥X∥ψ1<∞\|X\|_{\psi_1} < \infty∥X∥ψ1​​<∞ characterizes an exponential-type tail P{∣X∣≥t}≤2exp⁡(−ct/∥X∥ψ1)P\{|X| \ge t\} \le 2\exp(-ct/\|X\|_{\psi_1})P{∣X∣≥t}≤2exp(−ct/∥X∥ψ1​​). Every bounded random variable — in particular every Bernoulli or Rademacher (symmetric Bernoulli) random variable — is sub-gaussian, and the square of a sub-gaussian random variable is sub-exponential; a genuinely sub-exponential (not sub-gaussian) example is the squared coordinate gi2g_i^2gi2​ of a standard Gaussian vector, or the exponential distribution itself.

Formalization targets

Goal — Theorem 2.8.2 (Bernstein's inequality, weighted sum). Let X1,…,XNX_1, \dots, X_NX1​,…,XN​ be independent, mean-zero, sub-exponential random variables on (Ω,F,P)(\Omega, \mathcal F, P)(Ω,F,P), and let a=(a1,…,aN)∈RNa = (a_1, \dots, a_N) \in \mathbb R^Na=(a1​,…,aN​)∈RN. Then, for every t≥0t \ge 0t≥0,

P{∣∑i=1NaiXi∣≥t}  ≤  2exp⁡[−cmin⁡(t2K2∥a∥22,tK∥a∥∞)],P\Bigl\{\Bigl|\sum_{i=1}^N a_i X_i\Bigr| \ge t\Bigr\} \;\le\; 2\exp\left[-c\min\left(\frac{t^2}{K^2\|a\|_2^2}, \frac{t}{K\|a\|_\infty}\right)\right],P{​i=1∑N​ai​Xi​​≥t}≤2exp[−cmin(K2∥a∥22​t2​,K∥a∥∞​t​)],

where K=max⁡i∥Xi∥ψ1K = \max_i \|X_i\|_{\psi_1}K=maxi​∥Xi​∥ψ1​​ and c>0c > 0c>0 is an absolute constant that does not depend on NNN, the XiX_iXi​, aaa, or ttt.

The goal is deliberately the weighted and sub-exponential form, the weakest of the chapter's results that is still stable under the improvements a solver might find: it neither fixes ai≡1a_i \equiv 1ai​≡1 (the unweighted Theorem 2.8.1, a special case) nor restricts to the lighter sub-gaussian tail (Theorem 2.6.3, which follows from a strictly stronger hypothesis). Both weaker theorems, plus Hoeffding's and Chernoff's inequalities, are included as milestones because Bernstein's own proof is built directly from them.

Significance

The result itself. Bernstein's inequality is the two-tail-regime concentration bound: a sub-gaussian tail exp⁡(−ct2/(K∥a∥2)2)\exp(-ct^2/(K\|a\|_2)^2)exp(−ct2/(K∥a∥2​)2) near the mean, transitioning to a heavier sub-exponential tail exp⁡(−ct/(K∥a∥∞))\exp(-ct/(K\|a\|_\infty))exp(−ct/(K∥a∥∞​)) far from it, exactly the behavior one should expect from a mixture of light-tailed terms with one heavy-tailed outlier. It underlies the concentration of quadratic forms (Chapter 6's Hanson–Wright inequality controls ∑εiεj\sum \varepsilon_i \varepsilon_j∑εi​εj​-type terms, which are themselves products of sub-gaussians and hence sub-exponential by Lemma 2.7.7), and it is the standard tool for bounding empirical-process suprema whose summands are not bounded but merely light-tailed.

Formalizing it. No formalization of Bernstein's inequality — in either the weighted or unweighted, or sub-gaussian or sub-exponential form — exists yet on Prove2Me (GET /theorems?q=Bernstein and q=sub-exponential return no relevant hits, checked 2026-09-17). What this mission produces is not just the statement but the machinery underneath it: a working Orlicz-norm treatment of ψ1\psi_1ψ1​ and ψ2\psi_2ψ2​ that a later mission (the Hanson–Wright inequality, or any future chapter that needs sub-exponential concentration) can build on directly.

Difficulty

The obvious first idea — squaring both sides and applying Chebyshev, as one does to prove the weak law of large numbers — gives only a polynomial tail bound decaying like 1/N1/N1/N, far too weak to be useful (this is exactly the point made by the chapter's opening discussion of the coin-tossing example, comparing the linear decay from Chebyshev against the target exponential decay). The central limit theorem promises the right shape of tail asymptotically but, per Berry–Esseen, with an error of order 1/N1/\sqrt N1/N​ that swamps any exponential gain for large deviations — the CLT approximation is simply not valid in the tail regime the inequality needs. The actual argument instead controls the moment generating function of the full sum directly and optimizes an exponential (Chernoff) tilt; this is why the sub-gaussian and sub-exponential norms — MGF-control objects, not moment or tail objects per se — are the right technical vehicle, even though Proposition 2.5.2 and 2.7.1 show all these characterizations are equivalent up to constants. The min of two terms in Bernstein's exponent is not an artifact of a loose proof: it reflects a genuinely two-regime tail (Gaussian near the mean, exponential in the far tail), and collapsing it to a single term in either direction would either be false (dropping the exponential term) or needlessly weak (dropping the Gaussian term, which is what a naive union bound over the worst single term would give).

Formalization scope

Random variables are ℝ-valued functions on an explicit probability space (Ω, mΩ, P) (Ω : Type, MeasurableSpace Ω, P : Measure Ω, [IsProbabilityMeasure P]), matching the book's setup throughout. Independence is Mathlib's ProbabilityTheory.iIndepFun, and tail probabilities are stated with P.real, Mathlib's ℝ-valued measure evaluation, which corresponds directly to the book's P{⋅}P\{\cdot\}P{⋅}.

Both Orlicz norms are defined locally, as genuine infima matching Definitions 2.5.6 and 2.7.5 verbatim (subgaussianNorm, subexponentialNorm, each sInf {t > 0 : Integrable (fun ω => E[...]) P ∧ E[...] ≤ 2}), rather than reused from Mathlib's HasSubgaussianMGF (Mathlib.Probability.Moments.SubGaussian). The Integrable conjunct is not optional dressing: Mathlib's Bochner integral of a non-integrable function is 0 by convention, so a bare E[...] ≤ 2 (without asserting integrability) would be satisfied by every t for which the moment is actually infinite, collapsing the sub-gaussian norm of a standard Gaussian (and, symmetrically, the sub-exponential norm of any heavy-tailed variable) to 0 — a trivializing formalization the mission was moderated to rule out. The same Integrable conjunct appears in every moment hypothesis (general_hoeffding, bernstein_unweighted, bernstein_weighted): ∃ s > 0, Integrable (...) P ∧ ∫ ... ≤ 2, so that the hypothesis is not satisfied vacuously by non-integrable exponential moments either. HasSubgaussianMGF bounds the moment generating function directly with a variance-proxy parameter σ2\sigma^2σ2 (E exp(tX) ≤ exp(c t²/2)), which is a different object definitionally from the Orlicz ψ2\psi_2ψ2​ norm — equivalent up to a constant factor by the book's own Proposition 2.5.2, but not interchangeable without restating that equivalence — and Mathlib has no sub-exponential analogue at all. Since the goal theorem and two of its milestones need the sub-exponential norm, one consistent convention (the book's own Orlicz norms) is used for both ψ1\psi_1ψ1​ and ψ2\psi_2ψ2​ throughout the mission, rather than mixing Mathlib's MGF-based sub-gaussian convention with a locally defined sub-exponential one.

Every occurrence of the book's "ccc is an absolute constant" is formalized as a genuine existential quantifier fixed before the random variables, the vector a, and t are introduced: ∃ c : ℝ, 0 < c ∧ ∀ ..., P.real {...} ≤ 2 * Real.exp (-(c * ...)). No numeral is substituted for c anywhere; a solver's proof may use any positive constant it can establish, exactly mirroring the book's own non-constructive existence claims. The trivializing formalization this rules out is fixing c to a specific small numeral (which would be a strictly stronger, easier, and unfaithful claim) or, in the other direction, weakening the statement by allowing c to depend on N, the XiX_iXi​, a, or t (which would make the theorem vacuous, since any such bound trivially holds for a small enough ccc depending on the instance).

Chernoff's inequality (Theorem 2.3.1) needs no Orlicz norm — Bernoulli parameters pip_ipi​ are given directly via P.real {X i = 1} = p i ∧ P.real {X i = 0} = 1 - p i, and the conclusion uses Real.rpow (^ on ℝ → ℝ → ℝ) for the real exponent ttt in (eμ/t)t(e\mu/t)^t(eμ/t)t. Hoeffding's inequality for symmetric Bernoulli variables (Theorem 2.2.2) is likewise self-contained, needing only the two-point probability hypothesis defining the Rademacher distribution.

Selected references

  • W. Hoeffding, Probability Inequalities for Sums of Bounded Random Variables, Journal of the American Statistical Association 58(301), 1963. https://doi.org/10.2307/2282952
  • S. Bernstein, The Theory of Probabilities, Gastehizdat Publishing House, Moscow, 1946 (Russian; the inequality is due to Bernstein's earlier 1920s–1930s work, this textbook states the modern sub-exponential form following later expositions).
  • A. C. Berry, The Accuracy of the Gaussian Approximation to the Sum of Independent Variates, Transactions of the American Mathematical Society 49(1), 1941. https://doi.org/10.2307/1990053
  • C.-G. Esseen, On the Liapunoff Limit of Error in the Theory of Probability, Arkiv för Matematik, Astronomi och Fysik A28, 1942.
  • R. Vershynin, High-Dimensional Probability: An Introduction with Applications in Data Science, Cambridge University Press, 2018, Chapter 2. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781108231596
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High-Dimensional Probability I: Approximate Carathéodory's TheoremTextbook

Motivation

Many arguments in high-dimensional geometry, statistics and computer science need to approximate a point of a convex set by an average of a handful of extreme points, rather than represent it exactly. The classical Carathéodory theorem (1907) answers the exact question: every point of the convex hull of a set T⊆RnT \subseteq \mathbb{R}^nT⊆Rn is a convex combination of at most n+1n+1n+1 points of TTT. That bound is tight and grows with the dimension nnn, which makes it useless whenever nnn is large — exactly the regime of interest in high-dimensional probability.

B. Maurey's empirical method — an unpublished 1980–81 result reported by G. Pisier, "Remarques sur un résultat non publié de B. Maurey," Séminaire d'Analyse Fonctionnelle 1980–1981 — and later applied by B. Carl to bound covering numbers of operators between Banach spaces (Inequalities of Bernstein-Jackson-type and the degree of compactness of operators in Banach spaces, Ann. Inst. Fourier 35(3), 1985, 79–118), replaces the exact question with an approximate one and removes the dimension dependence entirely: to approximate xxx to accuracy ε\varepsilonε, the number of points needed depends only on ε\varepsilonε, never on nnn. Vershynin's High-Dimensional Probability opens with this result as its "Appetizer," using it to illustrate the book's central theme — that randomness is a tool for constructing deterministic combinatorial objects — before any probabilistic machinery has been introduced.

Setting

A convex combination of finitely many points z1,…,zm∈Rnz_1, \dots, z_m \in \mathbb{R}^nz1​,…,zm​∈Rn is a sum ∑i=1mλizi\sum_{i=1}^m \lambda_i z_i∑i=1m​λi​zi​ with λi≥0\lambda_i \ge 0λi​≥0 and ∑iλi=1\sum_i \lambda_i = 1∑i​λi​=1. The convex hull conv⁡(T)\operatorname{conv}(T)conv(T) of a set T⊆RnT \subseteq \mathbb{R}^nT⊆Rn is the set of all convex combinations of all finite collections of points of TTT. The diameter of TTT is diam⁡(T)=sup⁡{∥s−t∥2:s,t∈T}\operatorname{diam}(T) = \sup\{\|s-t\|_2 : s, t \in T\}diam(T)=sup{∥s−t∥2​:s,t∈T}, the Euclidean norm throughout.

The classical Carathéodory theorem states that every x∈conv⁡(T)x \in \operatorname{conv}(T)x∈conv(T) is a convex combination of at most n+1n+1n+1 points of TTT — with n+1n+1n+1 generally unavoidable, attained by a simplex. The question this mission answers is different: given that we are willing to approximate xxx rather than represent it exactly, and willing to use only combinations with equal coefficients 1/k1/k1/k (an average of kkk points, with repetition allowed), how large must kkk be as a function of the desired accuracy?

Formalization targets

Goal — Theorem 0.0.2, Approximate Carathéodory's theorem

diam(T)≤1, x∈conv⁡(T), k∈Z>0 ⟹ ∃ x1,…,xk∈T:∥x−1k∑j=1kxj∥2≤1k.\text{diam}(T) \le 1,\ x \in \operatorname{conv}(T),\ k \in \mathbb{Z}_{>0} \ \Longrightarrow\ \exists\, x_1,\dots,x_k \in T:\quad \left\| x - \frac{1}{k}\sum_{j=1}^{k} x_j \right\|_2 \le \frac{1}{\sqrt{k}}.diam(T)≤1, x∈conv(T), k∈Z>0​ ⟹ ∃x1​,…,xk​∈T:​x−k1​j=1∑k​xj​​2​≤k​1​.

The quantifiers are exactly this order: for every bounded TTT, every point of its convex hull, and every target kkk, such an averaging set exists. This is the weakest stable statement carrying the theorem's content — the number of points kkk does not depend on the dimension nnn, and the coefficients are forced to be uniform — and it is the form the corollary below invokes directly.

Milestone — Corollary 0.0.4, Covering polytopes by balls

P=conv⁡(T), ∣T∣=N, diam⁡(P)≤1, ε>0 ⟹ ∃ C, ∣C∣≤N⌈1/ε2⌉:P⊆⋃c∈CB‾(c,ε).P = \operatorname{conv}(T),\ |T| = N,\ \operatorname{diam}(P) \le 1,\ \varepsilon > 0 \ \Longrightarrow\ \exists\, C,\ |C| \le N^{\lceil 1/\varepsilon^2 \rceil}:\quad P \subseteq \bigcup_{c \in C} \overline{B}(c, \varepsilon).P=conv(T), ∣T∣=N, diam(P)≤1, ε>0 ⟹ ∃C, ∣C∣≤N⌈1/ε2⌉:P⊆c∈C⋃​B(c,ε).

This is a direct application of the goal to computational geometry's covering problem: how many balls of radius ε\varepsilonε are needed to cover a polytope, and where should they be centered.

Significance

The result itself. The approximate Carathéodory theorem is the prototype of a dimension-free approximation result: whenever a set is bounded, a fixed number of points (depending only on the target accuracy, not the ambient dimension) suffices to approximate any point of its convex hull. This is what makes possible dimension-independent covering-number bounds such as Corollary 0.0.4, which in turn are the starting point for the book's later treatment of entropy, packing and generic chaining (Chapters 4, 7–8). The technique generalizes far beyond Rn\mathbb{R}^nRn: it underlies covering-number bounds for operators between Banach spaces (Carl's original application) and is a recurring device in learning theory for bounding the size of an ε\varepsilonε-net of a hypothesis class.

Formalizing it. Both results are elementary and already fully proved in the literature; no open mathematical content remains. What this mission contributes is a machine-checked, faithful Lean statement of Maurey's construction and its corollary, phrased over Mathlib's existing convex-hull and metric-diameter machinery, so that later missions in this series (concentration inequalities, Johnson–Lindenstrauss, chaining) can build on a verified base case of "probability constructs a deterministic covering," and so that the empirical method itself becomes a reusable, linked component on the platform. The proof of the goal (via the probabilistic argument sketched by the book: interpret a convex combination as a probability distribution, average kkk i.i.d. samples, and bound the variance) is left open for solvers.

Difficulty

The identity that makes the proof work — averaging kkk independent copies of a random vector concentrates around its mean at rate 1/k1/\sqrt{k}1/k​ in mean-square — is a two-line computation once the convex combination is reinterpreted probabilistically. The step that is easy to miss is this reinterpretation itself: nothing in the statement mentions probability, so the "obvious" attack of manipulating the convex-combination weights directly, or trying to construct x1,…,xkx_1,\dots,x_kx1​,…,xk​ by some explicit combinatorial recipe, does not see a path to a bound independent of nnn. The probabilistic argument produces the points non-constructively, via an averaging/existence argument (the expected squared distance is small, so some realization achieves it) rather than an explicit formula — a solver has to introduce a probability space and a random vector that does not appear anywhere in the formal statement to be proved.

Formalization scope

Both results are stated over EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin n) for an explicit dimension n : ℕ, so ‖·‖ is the Euclidean norm and Mathlib's Metric.diam is used directly for diam⁡(T)=sup⁡{∥s−t∥2}\operatorname{diam}(T) = \sup\{\|s-t\|_2\}diam(T)=sup{∥s−t∥2​}. The convex hull is Mathlib's convexHull ℝ T; by Mathlib's convexHull_eq, this already coincides with the book's own definition of a convex combination of finitely many points of TTT, so no bespoke convex-combination definition is introduced — this mission needs no supporting definitions of its own. In the corollary, "a polytope PPP with NNN vertices" is formalized, following the book's own proof, as P=conv⁡(T)P = \operatorname{conv}(T)P=conv(T) for a finite vertex set TTT with #T=N\#T = N#T=N, rather than via a separate Polytope structure (which Mathlib does not provide and the book's argument does not need). The covering bound N⌈1/ε2⌉N^{\lceil 1/\varepsilon^2\rceil}N⌈1/ε2⌉ is an exponent, not a product with NNN — matching the book's own proof, which counts the NkN^kNk ordered kkk-tuples of vertices with repetition, k:=⌈1/ε2⌉k := \lceil 1/\varepsilon^2\rceilk:=⌈1/ε2⌉; the typeset "N⌈1/ε2⌉N\lceil 1/\varepsilon^2\rceilN⌈1/ε2⌉" in the corollary statement is the same juxtaposition-as-exponent notation the proof uses for "NkN^kNk" one line earlier.

A trivializing formalization is ruled out explicitly: the goal must hold for every integer k>0k > 0k>0 and every x∈conv⁡(T)x \in \operatorname{conv}(T)x∈conv(T), not merely some convenient choice — e.g. k=1k = 1k=1 together with x∈Tx \in Tx∈T trivially satisfies the inequality but proves nothing about the theorem's actual content, that a fixed, dimension-independent kkk works uniformly over all points of the hull. The formal statement quantifies TTT, then xxx, then kkk, and only then asserts existence of the x1,…,xkx_1,\dots,x_kx1​,…,xk​, exactly in that order.

Classical Carathéodory (Theorem 0.0.1, stated for context in the source but not used by either formalized result's proof) is not drafted here: Mathlib already proves the corresponding statement via affine independence (Caratheodory.eq_pos_convex_span_of_mem_convexHull, Analysis/Convex/Caratheodory.lean), from which the book's "n+1n+1n+1 points" bound follows via AffineIndependent.card_le_finrank_succ. It is not added as a kind: reference milestone because no corresponding theorem is yet published on the Prove2Me platform to point at (checked 2026-09-17: GET /theorems?q=Caratheodory returns only unrelated tropical-convexity results), and re-drafting existing Mathlib content as a new platform theorem would duplicate rather than reuse it.

Selected references

  • R. Vershynin, High-Dimensional Probability: An Introduction with Applications in Data Science, Cambridge University Press, 2018, DOI 10.1017/9781108231596, Appetizer (pp. 1–5).
  • G. Pisier, "Remarques sur un résultat non publié de B. Maurey," Séminaire d'Analyse Fonctionnelle (Maurey–Schwartz), 1980–1981, exposé no. 5. numdam.org/item/SAF_1980-1981____A5_0
  • B. Carl, "Inequalities of Bernstein-Jackson-type and the degree of compactness of operators in Banach spaces," Annales de l'Institut Fourier, 35(3), 1985, 79–118. numdam.org/item/AIF_1985__35_3_79_0
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Convex OptimizationOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Introduction to Online Convex Optimization III: Online Gradient DescentTextbook

Motivation

Online convex optimization (OCO) models a repeated decision process: at each round a learner picks a point in a convex set, an adversary (or the world) reveals a convex cost function, the learner pays that cost at its own point, and the process repeats. No statistical assumption on the sequence of costs is made. This model, introduced by Zinkevich [Zinkevich, Online Convex Programming and Generalized Infinitesimal Gradient Ascent, ICML 2003], underlies most of modern online learning: portfolio selection, online routing, and — through its special case of stochastic optimization — the training of essentially every large machine-learning model in current use, since stochastic gradient descent (the subject of §3.4 of this chapter) is exactly an application of the regret bounds proved here.

The algorithm this chapter introduces, online gradient descent (OGD), is the field's default answer: take a gradient step against the most recently observed cost, project back onto the feasible set. It predates OCO itself as a heuristic, but Zinkevich's contribution — and this chapter's — is the regret analysis: a guarantee that holds against every sequence of costs, adversarially chosen, with an explicit, small constant. Precursors for less general settings appear in Kivinen and Warmuth [1997]; logarithmic-regret algorithms for OCO, the subject of §3.3 here, are due to Hazan, Agarwal and Kale [2007].

The online convex optimization protocol

Fix a convex set KKK in a real inner product space, playing the role of the decision (or "action") space, and a sequence of cost functions f1,f2,⋯:K→Rf_1, f_2, \dots : K \to \mathbb{R}f1​,f2​,⋯:K→R, each convex. At round ttt, the learner (not knowing ftf_tft​) plays a point xt∈Kx_t \in Kxt​∈K, then observes ftf_tft​ and pays ft(xt)f_t(x_t)ft​(xt​). Regret after TTT rounds compares the learner's cumulative cost to that of the single best fixed decision made with hindsight of the whole sequence:

RegretT=∑t=1Tft(xt)−min⁡x⋆∈K∑t=1Tft(x⋆).\mathrm{Regret}_T = \sum_{t=1}^{T} f_t(x_t) - \min_{x^\star \in K} \sum_{t=1}^{T} f_t(x^\star).RegretT​=t=1∑T​ft​(xt​)−x⋆∈Kmin​t=1∑T​ft​(x⋆).

A learner with regret o(T)o(T)o(T) is, on average, eventually as good as the best fixed point in KKK, even though it never knew the cost sequence in advance.

Two chapter-wide parameters bound how hard an instance can be: DDD, the diameter of KKK (dist⁡(x,y)≤D\operatorname{dist}(x,y) \le Ddist(x,y)≤D for all x,y∈Kx, y \in Kx,y∈K), and GGG, a common bound on the gradient norm of every ftf_tft​ over KKK (∥∇ft(x)∥≤G\|\nabla f_t(x)\| \le G∥∇ft​(x)∥≤G for all x∈Kx \in Kx∈K), which implies but is strictly stronger than GGG-Lipschitzness on KKK. Online gradient descent (Algorithm 8) plays x1∈Kx_1 \in Kx1​∈K arbitrarily, then at every round sets yt+1=xt−ηt∇ft(xt)y_{t+1} = x_t - \eta_t \nabla f_t(x_t)yt+1​=xt​−ηt​∇ft​(xt​) and projects, xt+1=ΠK(yt+1)x_{t+1} = \Pi_K(y_{t+1})xt+1​=ΠK​(yt+1​), for a sequence of step sizes ηt\eta_tηt​ chosen in advance.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3.1 (online gradient descent regret)

RegretT≤32GDTfor all T≥1,\mathrm{Regret}_T \le \frac{3}{2} G D \sqrt{T} \quad \text{for all } T \ge 1,RegretT​≤23​GDT​for all T≥1,

using step sizes ηt=D/(Gt)\eta_t = D / (G\sqrt{t})ηt​=D/(Gt​). This is the chapter's — and arguably the book's — central result: the simplest algorithm for the fully general OCO protocol already attains O(T)O(\sqrt{T})O(T​) regret, with an explicit small constant, against convex Lipschitz costs with no further structure.

Milestone: Theorem 3.2 (matching lower bound)

Any algorithm for OCO incurs Ω(DGT)\Omega(DG\sqrt{T})Ω(DGT​) regret in the worst case: no algorithm, however clever, can improve asymptotically on Theorem 3.1's rate. This is the weaker, worst-case-existence half of the theorem (see Formalization scope).

Milestone: Theorem 3.3 (logarithmic regret under strong convexity)

If every ftf_tft​ is additionally α\alphaα-strongly convex, the same algorithm — with only the step sizes changed to ηt=1/(αt)\eta_t = 1/(\alpha t)ηt​=1/(αt) — achieves

RegretT≤G22α(1+log⁡T).\mathrm{Regret}_T \le \frac{G^2}{2\alpha}(1 + \log T).RegretT​≤2αG2​(1+logT).

Strong convexity is a strictly stronger hypothesis than convexity, so this target does not subsume the goal; it sits alongside it as the chapter's second, sharper regime.

Significance

Theorem 3.1 is the reference point against which every later algorithm and every later chapter's improvement (Online Newton Step, RFTL, adaptive-regret methods) is measured: any new algorithm for OCO is judged first by whether it matches this O(T)O(\sqrt{T})O(T​) rate, then by what extra structure lets it do better. Theorem 3.2 closes the question for the general convex-Lipschitz class: O(T)O(\sqrt{T})O(T​) is not an artifact of a loose analysis, it is information-theoretically necessary. Theorem 3.3 identifies the one extra hypothesis (strong convexity) that buys an exponential improvement in the horizon dependence, from T\sqrt{T}T​ to log⁡T\log TlogT, without any other change to the algorithm — the same phenomenon that in the book's Chapter 2 separated well-conditioned from general convex offline optimization, now transplanted to the online, adversarial setting.

None of these three statements has a machine-checked proof on the platform prior to this mission (see Formalization scope below for what was checked). Formalizing them establishes the regret protocol and the OGD algorithm as reusable definitions for the rest of this thirteen-chapter series, several chapters of which (Online Newton Step, RFTL, bandit convex optimization) build directly on Algorithm 8 or its regret guarantee.

Difficulty

The regret bound's proof (Theorem 3.1) is short but not naive: bounding ∇t⊤(xt−x⋆)\nabla_t^\top(x_t - x^\star)∇t⊤​(xt​−x⋆) by convexity alone gives no telescoping structure, so the argument instead bounds it using the projection step — the Pythagorean inequality ∥ΠK(z)−x⋆∥≤∥z−x⋆∥\|\Pi_K(z) - x^\star\| \le \|z - x^\star\|∥ΠK​(z)−x⋆∥≤∥z−x⋆∥ for x⋆∈Kx^\star \in Kx⋆∈K — applied to the specific point z=xt−ηt∇tz = x_t - \eta_t \nabla_tz=xt​−ηt​∇t​. This turns the per-round convexity bound into a telescoping sum in ∥xt−x⋆∥2\|x_t - x^\star\|^2∥xt​−x⋆∥2, and only the resulting sum, evaluated with the specific step-size schedule ηt=D/(Gt)\eta_t = D/(G\sqrt{t})ηt​=D/(Gt​), produces the T\sqrt{T}T​ rate; a constant or linearly growing step size does not. The same projection argument is reused for Theorem 3.3, where the strong-convexity inequality is engineered to make the ∥x⋆−xt∥2\|x^\star - x_t\|^2∥x⋆−xt​∥2 terms cancel exactly against the projection telescoping, leaving a harmonic sum. Theorem 3.2's difficulty is of a different kind: it is a lower bound over every algorithm, proved by exhibiting a randomized hard instance (the hypercube with 2n2^n2n sign-vector linear costs) on which no algorithm can do better than random guessing in expectation.

Formalization scope

KKK is formalized as a subset of an arbitrary real, complete inner product space (not fixed to Rn\mathbb{R}^nRn), since the chapter's argument uses only Hilbert-space structure. Rounds are 0-indexed (Finset.range T) rather than the book's 1-indexed rounds, so a step size stated here at round ttt is the book's step size at round t+1t+1t+1. D and G are carried as shared section hypotheses (the chapter-wide diameter and gradient-norm bounds), not re-derived or re-stated per theorem; G is formalized exactly as the book defines it (p. 20: a bound on ∥∇ft(x)∥\|\nabla f_t(x)\|∥∇ft​(x)∥ over KKK, via Mathlib's HasGradientAt), not as the weaker two-point Lipschitz condition it implies — an earlier draft used the weaker Lipschitz hypothesis and was corrected during moderation, since it made the drafted theorems strictly stronger than the book's own (true by an added argument the book does not give, but not faithful to the stated proof). The projection step is formalized relationally (IsMetricProjection, an arbitrary closest point) rather than as a canonical function, since a general convex set need not come with one built into Mathlib.

For Theorem 3.2, this mission formalizes the theorem's main sentence — the worst-case existence claim — quantifying over "any algorithm" as a non-anticipating map from the full cost sequence to the play sequence, with the hard cost sequence existentially quantified after the algorithm and the horizon: for every algorithm and every horizon there is a cost sequence forcing Ω(DGT)\Omega(DG\sqrt{T})Ω(DGT​) regret against it. (An earlier draft quantified the cost sequence first — one fixed sequence defeating every algorithm — which is false: a constant algorithm playing a minimizer of that one sequence has zero regret against it; this was corrected during moderation.) It does not formalize the theorem's parenthetical strengthening, that the same Ω(DGT)\Omega(DG\sqrt{T})Ω(DGT​) bound holds even when costs are drawn from a fixed stationary distribution; that claim is about expected regret of a deterministic algorithm against a random cost sequence, and would need a probability-space formalization of the OCO protocol that this mission's definitions do not build. A formalization limited to the deterministic worst case does not trivialize the theorem: it is exactly the inequality "O(T)O(\sqrt{T})O(T​) cannot be improved," stated without the randomization machinery of its proof.

Theorem 3.4 (the stochastic gradient descent corollary, via a noisy gradient oracle with bounded second moment) is not included: it needs an expectation over a random oracle applied at a random, round-dependent point, which is a substantially heavier probabilistic object than the deterministic protocol built here, and is left for a future mission or an extension of this one.

Selected references

  • Zinkevich, M. Online Convex Programming and Generalized Infinitesimal Gradient Ascent. ICML 2003. https://www.aaai.org/Papers/ICML/2003/ICML03-120.pdf
  • Kivinen, J. and Warmuth, M. K. Exponentiated Gradient Versus Gradient Descent for Linear Predictors. Information and Computation, 1997. https://doi.org/10.1006/inco.1996.2612
  • Hazan, E., Agarwal, A. and Kale, S. Logarithmic Regret Algorithms for Online Convex Optimization. Machine Learning 69, 2007. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10994-007-5016-8
  • Hazan, E. Introduction to Online Convex Optimization, 2nd ed. arXiv:1909.05207v3, Chapter 3. https://arxiv.org/abs/1909.05207
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Bandit AlgorithmsReinforcement LearningStatistics·Captain: mikedeng1

Foundations of Reinforcement Learning II: Contextual Bandits and Inverse Gap WeightingTextbook

Motivation

Decision-making problems rarely present the same fixed choice twice. A doctor prescribing a treatment sees each patient's medical history and symptoms before deciding; a website choosing which article to show sees the visitor's profile first. The multi-armed bandit model — where the learner repeatedly picks from a fixed set of arms with no side information — cannot express this: it is blind to the covariates that any real decision-maker actually observes. The contextual bandit model closes this gap by letting the learner see a context before acting, and asks for a decision rule that generalizes across contexts rather than memorizing a policy per context. Foster and Rakhlin's Foundations of Reinforcement Learning and Interactive Decision Making (arXiv:2312.16730v1, Section 3, pp. 38–53) develops this model and its algorithms as the bridge between supervised learning and sequential decision making, en route to general reinforcement learning. Contextual bandits with a learned reward-function class underlie production systems for content recommendation, online advertising, and adaptive clinical trial design (Li et al., A Contextual-Bandit Approach to Personalized News Article Recommendation, 2010, https://arxiv.org/abs/1003.0146; Agarwal et al., Making Contextual Decisions with Low Technical Debt, 2016, https://arxiv.org/abs/1606.03966).

The algorithmic history in this chapter runs through two distinct principles. The optimism principle (LinUCB, Section 3.2) generalizes the UCB algorithm to contexts under a linear reward model, but the chapter's own Example 3.1 (Section 3.3) shows optimism fails outside such structured classes, incurring regret linear in the size of the context space or the class. Foster and Rakhlin then present two "black-box" alternatives that use any function class FFF through an abstract regression subroutine: the naive ε\varepsilonε-Greedy method (Section 3.4), and the Inverse Gap Weighting (IGW) strategy underlying the SquareCB algorithm (Bietti, Agarwal & Langford, A Contextual Bandit Bake-off, 2018, https://arxiv.org/abs/1802.04064; Foster & Rakhlin, Beyond UCB: Optimal and Efficient Contextual Bandits with Regression Oracles, 2020, https://arxiv.org/abs/2002.04926). SquareCB attains a regret rate that both generalizes across contexts (no dependence on the size of the context space) and matches the optimal T\sqrt{T}T​ rate — improving on ε\varepsilonε-Greedy's T2/3T^{2/3}T2/3 rate — while remaining agnostic to the internal structure of FFF.

Setting

Over TTT rounds, a decision-maker faces the contextual bandit protocol: at each round ttt, it observes a context xt∈Xx_t \in Xxt​∈X, selects a decision πt\pi_tπt​ from a finite action set Π={1,…,A}\Pi = \{1,\dots,A\}Π={1,…,A}, and observes a reward rt∈Rr_t \in \mathbb{R}rt​∈R. Rewards are generated independently as rt∼M⋆(⋅∣xt,πt)r_t \sim M^\star(\cdot \mid x_t, \pi_t)rt​∼M⋆(⋅∣xt​,πt​) for a fixed, unknown conditional model M⋆M^\starM⋆; write f⋆(x,π):=E[r∣x,π]f^\star(x,\pi) := \mathbb{E}[r \mid x, \pi]f⋆(x,π):=E[r∣x,π] for the mean reward function and π⋆(x):=arg⁡max⁡πf⋆(x,π)\pi^\star(x) := \arg\max_\pi f^\star(x,\pi)π⋆(x):=argmaxπ​f⋆(x,π) for the optimal, context-dependent policy. The context sequence x1,…,xTx_1,\dots,x_Tx1​,…,xT​ is arbitrary — fixed in advance or adversarially chosen — while rewards remain stochastic. Performance is measured by regret against π⋆\pi^\starπ⋆:

Reg:=∑t=1Tf⋆(xt,π⋆(xt))−∑t=1TEπt∼pt[f⋆(xt,πt)],\mathrm{Reg} := \sum_{t=1}^T f^\star(x_t,\pi^\star(x_t)) - \sum_{t=1}^T \mathbb{E}_{\pi_t\sim p_t}[f^\star(x_t,\pi_t)],Reg:=t=1∑T​f⋆(xt​,π⋆(xt​))−t=1∑T​Eπt​∼pt​​[f⋆(xt​,πt​)],

where ptp_tpt​ is the learner's (possibly randomized) action distribution at round ttt.

To generalize across contexts, the learner is given a class F⊆{f:X×Π→R}F \subseteq \{f : X\times\Pi \to \mathbb{R}\}F⊆{f:X×Π→R} with f⋆∈Ff^\star \in Ff⋆∈F, and aims for regret scaling with the statistical complexity log⁡∣F∣\log|F|log∣F∣ rather than with ∣X∣|X|∣X∣. Both algorithms in this mission access FFF only through an online regression oracle (Definition 3, p. 47): given the history (x1,π1,r1),…,(xt−1,πt−1,rt−1)(x_1,\pi_1,r_1),\dots,(x_{t-1},\pi_{t-1},r_{t-1})(x1​,π1​,r1​),…,(xt−1​,πt−1​,rt−1​), it returns an estimate f^t:X×Π→R\hat f_t : X\times\Pi\to\mathbb{R}f^​t​:X×Π→R satisfying, with probability at least 1−δ1-\delta1−δ, ∑t=1TEπt∼pt[(f^t(xt,πt)−f⋆(xt,πt))2]≤EstSq(F,T,δ)\sum_{t=1}^T \mathbb{E}_{\pi_t\sim p_t}[(\hat f_t(x_t,\pi_t)-f^\star(x_t,\pi_t))^2] \le \mathrm{EstSq}(F,T,\delta)∑t=1T​Eπt​∼pt​​[(f^​t​(xt​,πt​)−f⋆(xt​,πt​))2]≤EstSq(F,T,δ) — for instance, exponential weights on a finite class FFF achieves EstSq(F,T,δ)=log⁡(∣F∣/δ)\mathrm{EstSq}(F,T,\delta) = \log(|F|/\delta)EstSq(F,T,δ)=log(∣F∣/δ). SquareCB (p. 50–51) then samples its action from the Inverse Gap Weighting distribution (Definition 4, p. 50): given a vector of estimated values f^∈RA\hat f \in \mathbb{R}^Af^​∈RA with greedy action πˉ=arg⁡max⁡πf^(π)\bar\pi = \arg\max_\pi \hat f(\pi)πˉ=argmaxπ​f^​(π), and an exploration parameter γ≥0\gamma \ge 0γ≥0, p=IGWγ(f^)p = \mathrm{IGW}_\gamma(\hat f)p=IGWγ​(f^​) is p(π)=1/(λ+2γ(f^(πˉ)−f^(π)))p(\pi) = 1/(\lambda + 2\gamma(\hat f(\bar\pi)-\hat f(\pi)))p(π)=1/(λ+2γ(f^​(πˉ)−f^​(π))) for the unique λ∈[1,A]\lambda \in [1,A]λ∈[1,A] making ppp a probability distribution.

Formalization targets

Milestone — Proposition 9 (IGW estimation-to-regret inequality)

Eπ∼p[f⋆(π⋆)−f⋆(π)]≤Aγ+γ⋅Eπ∼p[(f^(π)−f⋆(π))2],p=IGWγ(f^).\mathbb{E}_{\pi\sim p}[f^\star(\pi^\star)-f^\star(\pi)] \le \frac{A}{\gamma} + \gamma\cdot\mathbb{E}_{\pi\sim p}[(\hat f(\pi)-f^\star(\pi))^2], \qquad p = \mathrm{IGW}_\gamma(\hat f).Eπ∼p​[f⋆(π⋆)−f⋆(π)]≤γA​+γ⋅Eπ∼p​[(f^​(π)−f⋆(π))2],p=IGWγ​(f^​).

This holds for any f^,f⋆∈RA\hat f, f^\star \in \mathbb{R}^Af^​,f⋆∈RA and any γ>0\gamma>0γ>0, with no reference to FFF or to how f^\hat ff^​ was produced — it is the purely algebraic core the goal theorem invokes at every round.

Goal — Proposition 10 (SquareCB regret bound)

Reg≤2A T EstSq(F,T,δ)\mathrm{Reg} \le 2\sqrt{A\,T\,\mathrm{EstSq}(F,T,\delta)}Reg≤2ATEstSq(F,T,δ)​

with probability at least 1−δ1-\delta1−δ, for SquareCB run with γ=TA/EstSq(F,T,δ)\gamma = \sqrt{TA/\mathrm{EstSq}(F,T,\delta)}γ=TA/EstSq(F,T,δ)​, for any context sequence x1,…,xTx_1,\dots,x_Tx1​,…,xT​. This is the weakest stable target level in the chapter's oracle-based development: it is stated for an arbitrary class FFF and oracle, so it survives any future improvement to the oracle's own EstSq\mathrm{EstSq}EstSq bound, unlike a version hard-coded to a specific class or oracle.

Significance

Proposition 10 shows that Inverse Gap Weighting converts any estimation-error guarantee into a regret guarantee with the same statistical rate, with no algorithm-side dependence on the structure of FFF or the size of XXX: the same SquareCB template, driven by a plug-in regression oracle, is minimax optimal whenever the oracle itself is. When FFF is finite, this yields Reg≲ATlog⁡(∣F∣/δ)\mathrm{Reg} \lesssim \sqrt{AT\log(|F|/\delta)}Reg≲ATlog(∣F∣/δ)​, matching the optimal rate for stochastic multi-armed bandits (Section 2) while generalizing across contexts — a guarantee that optimism (Proposition 7) provably cannot deliver outside linear classes (Example 3.1), and that the simpler ε\varepsilonε-Greedy baseline (Proposition 8) only delivers at a slower T2/3T^{2/3}T2/3 rate. Foster and Rakhlin describe Proposition 9 itself as being "at the core of the development for the rest of the course": the same IGW mechanism reappears, generalized, in the book's treatment of general decision-making and the Decision-Estimation Coefficient.

Both propositions are proved results, not open questions; this mission's contribution is a machine-checked formalization of their exact statements and hypotheses — the precise OracleGuarantee hypothesis Proposition 10 requires, the exact constant (222, not a bare ≲\lesssim≲) its proof yields at the stated optimal γ\gammaγ, and the universally-quantified form of the IGW inequality (Proposition 9) that makes it reusable independently of any particular oracle or class.

Difficulty

The obvious first idea for exploiting an estimator f^t\hat f_tf^​t​ is a UCB-style optimism approach: build a confidence set around f^t\hat f_tf^​t​ and act greedily on its upper envelope, as in LinUCB (Proposition 7). Example 3.1 shows this fails in general: a class FFF can force the confidence set to remain wide on a fresh action at every new context, driving regret linear in min⁡{∣F∣,∣X∣}\min\{|F|,|X|\}min{∣F∣,∣X∣} — the confidence width in the regret bound does not shrink merely because the oracle's cumulative estimation error is small, since that error is not localized to the specific action the confidence-set approach tries next. Uniform exploration (ε\varepsilonε-Greedy) sidesteps this but wastes exploration budget on actions already known to be far from optimal, which is what caps its rate at T2/3T^{2/3}T2/3 (Proposition 8). Inverse Gap Weighting instead ties the sampling probability itself to the estimated gap from the greedy action, so cheap-to-rule-out actions are down-weighted continuously rather than either fully explored (ε-Greedy) or trusted outright (optimism); the technical content of Proposition 9 is showing this specific reciprocal-gap form gives a bound with no hidden dependence on FFF or XXX, for every pair (f^,f⋆)(\hat f, f^\star)(f^​,f⋆) simultaneously — a guarantee optimism cannot match because its confidence sets are class-dependent by construction.

Formalization scope

Contexts form an arbitrary type X; actions are Fin A for A : ℕ. A finite probability distribution over Fin A is represented directly as p : Fin A → ℝ with ∀ π, 0 ≤ p π and ∑ π, p π = 1, and Eπ∼p[g]\mathbb{E}_{\pi\sim p}[g]Eπ∼p​[g] as the finite sum ∑ π, p π * g π, rather than via Mathlib's PMF (which is ℝ≥0∞-valued) — an equivalent and lighter-weight representation of a distribution on a finite type. The normalizing constant λ\lambdaλ of Definition 4 and the optimal actions π⋆\pi^\starπ⋆, πˉ\bar\piπˉ are each specified by their defining property (existence of λ∈[1,A]\lambda \in [1,A]λ∈[1,A] realizing the IGW formula; ∀π,f(π)≤f(argmax)\forall\pi, f(\pi)\le f(\text{argmax})∀π,f(π)≤f(argmax)) rather than constructed explicitly via an intermediate-value or Finset.argmax argument, avoiding committing to one choice function for a value the book itself leaves implicit. The class FFF enters neither proposition's statement directly: it appears in the source only through the abstract bound EstSq(F,T,δ)\mathrm{EstSq}(F,T,\delta)EstSq(F,T,δ), which is carried as an explicit real-valued parameter and hypothesis (OracleGuarantee) rather than as a literal subset of a function space, since no property of FFF beyond producing this bound is ever used. The probability-(1−δ)(1-\delta)(1−δ) qualifier attached to the online regression oracle's guarantee is likewise the explicit hypothesis OracleGuarantee ... EstSq on a fixed realized run, rather than a statement quantified over an underlying probability space of histories — every subsequent step in both propositions' proofs is deterministic given that this event holds, so this does not weaken either conclusion. A trivializing formalization would fix A=1A=1A=1 (a single ever-optimal action, making both Reg and the IGW inequality vacuous) or take EstSq as an unconstrained free variable with no positivity hypothesis (making γ\gammaγ in Proposition 10 undefined); this mission's statements require 0 < EstSq and leave AAA, TTT, XXX, FFF-via-EstSq fully general.

This mission omits Proposition 7 (LinUCB): its proof rests on an entirely disjoint apparatus (finite linear parameter sets, least-squares confidence sets, the elliptic potential lemma) that neither Proposition 9 nor 10 requires, and Example 3.1 (the failure of optimism) is a worked example rather than a numbered, formalizable claim. It also omits Proposition 8 (ε\varepsilonε-Greedy): the source leaves the optimal ε\varepsilonε unspecified ("choosing ε\varepsilonε appropriately"), and deriving its own optimal value and matching constant independently — rather than reusing the book's own explicit constant, as Rule 7 of this formalization effort requires — was judged too likely to introduce an unfaithful, invented constant within this mission's time budget; both are natural extensions for a follow-up mission or contribution. Reusable infrastructure: the Fin A-indexed finite-distribution convention and the OracleGuarantee/optimal-action-by-property pattern extend directly to any later chapter built on the same online-regression-oracle abstraction.

Selected references

  • Foster, D. J. and Rakhlin, A. Foundations of Reinforcement Learning and Interactive Decision Making. 2023. https://arxiv.org/abs/2312.16730
  • Foster, D. J. and Rakhlin, A. Beyond UCB: Optimal and Efficient Contextual Bandits with Regression Oracles. ICML 2020. https://arxiv.org/abs/2002.04926
  • Bietti, A., Agarwal, A., and Langford, J. A Contextual Bandit Bake-off. JMLR 2021 (arXiv 2018). https://arxiv.org/abs/1802.04064
  • Li, L., Chu, W., Langford, J., and Schapire, R. E. A Contextual-Bandit Approach to Personalized News Article Recommendation. WWW 2010. https://arxiv.org/abs/1003.0146
  • Agarwal, A. et al. Making Contextual Decisions with Low Technical Debt. 2016. https://arxiv.org/abs/1606.03966
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Bandit AlgorithmsReinforcement Learning·Captain: mikedeng1

Foundations of Reinforcement Learning I: Multi-Armed Bandits and the UCB AlgorithmTextbook

Motivation

The multi-armed bandit is the simplest model of sequential decision-making under partial feedback: a learner repeatedly picks one of finitely many options and observes a reward only for the option chosen, never for the alternatives. It formalizes problems ranging from clinical trial design (which treatment to offer a patient) to online advertising (which ad to show) and A/B testing more generally. The framework dates to Robbins' 1952 paper on sequential design, and the algorithm this mission's goal theorem concerns — the Upper Confidence Bound (UCB) algorithm of Lai and Robbins [1985] and Auer, Cesa-Bianchi and Fischer [2002] — is the canonical answer to how to explore efficiently: instead of exploring uniformly at random, act optimistically with respect to the current uncertainty about each option's value. This mission draws its formalization from Chapter 2 of Foster and Rakhlin's 2023 lecture notes, Foundations of Reinforcement Learning and Interactive Decision Making, which develops the bandit problem as the first rung of a ladder of increasingly general interactive decision-making settings (contextual bandits, structured bandits, reinforcement learning) that the book's later chapters build.

Setting

Fix a finite decision (action) space Π={1,…,A}\Pi = \{1,\dots,A\}Π={1,…,A}. In the multi-armed bandit protocol, for each round t=1,…,Tt = 1,\dots,Tt=1,…,T the learner selects a decision πt∈Π\pi_t \in \Piπt​∈Π, possibly at random according to a distribution ptp_tpt​ depending on the history Ht−1=((π1,r1),…,(πt−1,rt−1))H_{t-1} = ((\pi_1,r_1),\dots,(\pi_{t-1},r_{t-1}))Ht−1​=((π1​,r1​),…,(πt−1​,rt−1​)) observed so far, and then observes a reward rt∈Rr_t \in \mathbb{R}rt​∈R drawn independently from a fixed conditional distribution M⋆(⋅∣πt)M^\star(\cdot \mid \pi_t)M⋆(⋅∣πt​) (the stochastic rewards assumption). Writing f⋆(π):=E[r∣π]f^\star(\pi) := \mathbb{E}[r \mid \pi]f⋆(π):=E[r∣π] for the mean reward function and π⋆:=arg⁡max⁡πf⋆(π)\pi^\star := \arg\max_\pi f^\star(\pi)π⋆:=argmaxπ​f⋆(π) for an optimal decision, the learner's performance is measured by the regret

Reg:=∑t=1Tf⋆(π⋆)−∑t=1TEπt∼pt[f⋆(πt)].\mathrm{Reg} := \sum_{t=1}^T f^\star(\pi^\star) - \sum_{t=1}^T \mathbb{E}_{\pi_t \sim p_t}[f^\star(\pi_t)].Reg:=t=1∑T​f⋆(π⋆)−t=1∑T​Eπt​∼pt​​[f⋆(πt​)].

Because the learner observes a reward only for the action played (bandit feedback), a purely greedy strategy that always plays the current empirical maximizer can commit to a suboptimal action forever, incurring linear regret; some form of deliberate exploration is necessary. The chapter's central construction is the confidence interval: a pair of functions f‾t,fˉt:Π→R\underline{f}_t, \bar f_t : \Pi \to \mathbb{R}f​t​,fˉ​t​:Π→R such that, with probability at least 1−δ1-\delta1−δ, f⋆(π)∈[f‾t(π),fˉt(π)]f^\star(\pi) \in [\underline{f}_t(\pi), \bar f_t(\pi)]f⋆(π)∈[f​t​(π),fˉ​t​(π)] for every round ttt and decision π\piπ simultaneously. The UCB algorithm plays the optimistic action πt=arg⁡max⁡πfˉt(π)\pi_t = \arg\max_\pi \bar f_t(\pi)πt​=argmaxπ​fˉ​t​(π) at every round, using the confidence interval built from Hoeffding's inequality around the empirical mean f^t(π)\hat f_t(\pi)f^​t​(π).

Formalization targets

Goal — Proposition 5 (UCB regret)

Reg  ≲  ATlog⁡(AT/δ)\mathrm{Reg} \;\lesssim\; \sqrt{AT\log(AT/\delta)}Reg≲ATlog(AT/δ)​

holding with probability at least 1−δ1-\delta1−δ, for the UCB algorithm using the confidence radius 2log⁡(2T2A/δ)/nt(π)\sqrt{2\log(2T^2A/\delta)/n_t(\pi)}2log(2T2A/δ)/nt​(π)​ of Eq. (2.19). This is the weakest stable statement the chapter proves: it is optimal up to the log factor, and strengthening it (e.g. to the sharper instance-dependent bound of Remark 10) is explicitly left to later work by the book itself.

Milestones

  • Proposition 4 (ε-Greedy regret): Reg≲A1/3T2/3log⁡1/3(AT/δ)\mathrm{Reg} \lesssim A^{1/3}T^{2/3}\log^{1/3}(AT/\delta)Reg≲A1/3T2/3log1/3(AT/δ) — the book's preceding, weaker result, establishing that naive forced exploration already gives sublinear regret, and motivating why an adaptive strategy (UCB) does better.
  • Lemma 7 (Optimism): the per-round regret of the optimistic action is bounded by the confidence width at that action.
  • Lemma 8 (Confidence width potential lemma): ∑t=1T(1/nt(πt)∧1)≲AT\sum_{t=1}^T (1/\sqrt{n_t(\pi_t)} \wedge 1) \lesssim \sqrt{AT}∑t=1T​(1/nt​(πt​)​∧1)≲AT​, a pigeonhole bound on how often any one action's confidence interval can still be wide.

Significance

UCB is the prototype of the "optimism in the face of uncertainty" principle that recurs, in increasingly abstract form, throughout the rest of the book: the same two-step argument (Lemma 7 + Lemma 8) reappears for linear bandits, structured bandits via the Decision-Estimation Coefficient, and UCB-VI for tabular reinforcement learning. Formalizing Chapter 2 in full therefore front-loads the proof pattern every later chapter in this series specializes. The result itself is also of standalone interest: the AT\sqrt{AT}AT​ minimax rate is the benchmark every subsequent bandit algorithm in the literature is compared against, and the A1/3T2/3A^{1/3}T^{2/3}A1/3T2/3-vs-AT\sqrt{AT}AT​ contrast between ε-Greedy and UCB is the standard illustration, in any course on the subject, of why adaptive exploration matters.

No formalization of this exact statement — realizability with respect to a function class f⋆∈F=RΠf^\star \in \mathcal{F} = \mathbb{R}^\Pif⋆∈F=RΠ and a generic confidence interval, rather than a per-arm sub-Gaussian empirical mean — currently exists on the platform (see Formalization scope below); the mission both proves this specific regret bound and seeds the generic optimism/potential lemma pair (Lemma 7, Lemma 8) that the book's later, more structured settings specialize.

Difficulty

The natural first attempt — bound the regret of the empirical-mean-greedy algorithm directly — fails outright: on a two-armed instance where one arm is deterministic and the other only slightly better in expectation, the greedy algorithm can commit to the worse arm forever with constant probability, giving linear, not sublinear, regret (§2.1). The obvious fix, ε-Greedy, forces exploration uniformly across all actions regardless of how much is already known about each, so the exploration cost scales with εT\varepsilon TεT even for actions whose value is already well determined — this is exactly what caps ε-Greedy at the T2/3T^{2/3}T2/3 rate. UCB's optimism principle resolves this by exploring an action only in proportion to how uncertain it still is; the technical core, isolated in Lemma 7 and Lemma 8, is disentangling "the algorithm made a mistake" from "the algorithm is still uncertain," which are conflated in the naive per-round regret decomposition used for ε-Greedy.

Formalization scope

Both the goal and the milestones fix a finite decision space Fin A, a mean reward function fStar : Fin A → ℝ with fStar π ∈ [0,1], and an optimal decision piStar. Regret is defined generically (Eq. (2.3)) via per-round decision weights p : ℕ → Fin A → ℝ, so it applies uniformly to a randomized algorithm (ε-Greedy) and a deterministic one (UCB, via the point mass at the played action). The book's "with probability at least 1−δ1-\delta1−δ" qualifier on both Proposition 4 and Proposition 5 is formalized as the deterministic consequence of the underlying concentration event (Eq. (2.9) and Eq. (2.18) respectively) holding — exactly the move the book's own proofs make ("Let us condition on the event in (2.18) ... "). The concentration events themselves rest on Hoeffding's inequality for adaptive stopping times (Lemma 33) and Bernstein's inequality (Lemma 5), both stated in the book's technical appendix outside this chapter, and are not drafted here; a solver may either take them as a hypothesis (as this mission's statements do) or import/prove them separately. A trivializing formalization is ruled out explicitly: taking δ outside (0,1)(0,1)(0,1), or dropping the fStar π ∈ [0,1] hypothesis, would make the stated constants vacuous or false, so both are retained as explicit hypotheses in every theorem. In every ≲ statement (Prop. 4, Lemma 8, Prop. 5) the witnessed constant C is quantified before the instance parameters (A, T, δ, and the realized sequences): ∃ C, 0 < C ∧ ∀ A T δ ..., Reg ≤ C * (rate), not the other order. This is deliberate, not stylistic: quantifying C after the instance lets it depend on A, T, δ, making the bound satisfiable by an arbitrarily large C chosen per instance and hence content-free, which is not what the book's ≲ means (a single constant working uniformly over all instances). Proposition 5's UCB decision rule is stated in the book's own two clauses, not collapsed into a single "maximize the upper confidence bound" rule: the confidence radius of Eq. (2.19) is +∞+\infty+∞ at nt(π)=0n_t(\pi)=0nt​(π)=0 (an action never yet sampled), so the book's UCB always plays an unsampled action before ever comparing indices, and only compares finite upper confidence bounds once every action has been sampled at least once; the confidence event of Eq. (2.18) is correspondingly assumed only at sampled actions, since the book's own bound is vacuous otherwise. An earlier draft instead capped the radius at 111 when nt(π)=0n_t(\pi)=0nt​(π)=0, which is a true statement about a different algorithm (a sampled action can have index above the capped unsampled index), and was corrected to the book's own rule after moderation. Reuse from the platform's existing bandit library (BanditAlgorithm, Lattimore & Szepesvári) is deliberately avoided: that library's UCB (bandit_ucb_regret_bound, bandit_ucb_minimax_regret_bound) is stated for per-arm 1-sub-Gaussian rewards with δ=1/n2\delta = 1/n^2δ=1/n2 fixed by the horizon, whereas this chapter's UCB is stated for a free failure probability δ\deltaδ and a generic confidence-interval abstraction (the multi-armed case being F=RΠ\mathcal{F} = \mathbb{R}^\PiF=RΠ of the book's general realizability framework) — the two are related but not the same statement. Contributions extending the mission with the generic confidence-interval form of Lemma 7/8 applied to other chapters in this series (contextual and structured bandits) are welcome.

Selected references

  • T. Lai and H. Robbins, Asymptotically Efficient Adaptive Allocation Rules, Advances in Applied Mathematics, 1985.
  • P. Auer, N. Cesa-Bianchi, and P. Fischer, Finite-time Analysis of the Multiarmed Bandit Problem, Machine Learning, 2002.
  • D. Foster and A. Rakhlin, Foundations of Reinforcement Learning and Interactive Decision Making, arXiv:2312.16730, 2023. https://arxiv.org/abs/2312.16730
  • T. Lattimore and C. Szepesvári, Bandit Algorithms, Cambridge University Press, 2020.
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Probability·Captain: naimengye

Speculative Actions: Cost-Latency Analysis for Agentic SpeculationResearch Paper

Motivation

An LLM agent acting in an environment spends most of its wall-clock time waiting. Each step — a model call, a tool or MCP request, a browser action, sometimes a human reply — must complete before the next can be issued, and the round trips dominate end-to-end latency: a chess game between two reasoning agents runs for hours, and an operating-system tuning task for tens of minutes. When a training or prompt-optimization loop repeats such a run thousands of times, the waiting is the cost.

Speculative actions (Ye, Ahuja, Liargkovas, Lu, Kaffes, Peng, ICLR 2026) transplants a classical systems idea — speculative execution in microprocessors, and speculative decoding for LLM inference — to the agent's environment loop. A cheap, fast speculator guesses the action a slow, authoritative actor is about to produce, the guess is used to launch the next environment call early, and the work is committed only when the actor's real action confirms the guess. The interface stays sequential and lossless; the internals run in parallel.

What makes this a formalization target rather than an engineering report is the paper's §5 cost–latency analysis. Speculating more branches buys hit probability but costs tokens, and the paper derives closed-form expressions for both sides of that trade — a self-contained piece of applied probability sitting underneath a systems paper. This mission asks for those expressions, machine-checked.

Setting

Fix a horizon TTT and index steps t=0,1,…,T−1t = 0, 1, \dots, T-1t=0,1,…,T−1. At each step a policy maps the state to an API call; the actor executes it with latency Exp(β)\mathrm{Exp}(\beta)Exp(β), while the speculator proposes candidate actions with latency Exp(α)\mathrm{Exp}(\alpha)Exp(α), where β<α\beta < \alphaβ<α (the speculator is faster in expectation). A speculative branch hits when the action it guesses implies the same next call the actor's true action would have implied; branches hit independently across steps with probability ppp.

Two knobs define the two regimes analyzed. Breadth kkk: at each step, launch kkk independent one-step speculations in parallel, each immediately followed by a real call. At least one of the kkk succeeds with probability

p(k)  =  1−(1−p)k.p(k) \;=\; 1 - (1-p)^k .p(k)=1−(1−p)k.

Depth: follow a single branch, extending it whenever a speculative or real call returns and pruning subtrees the actor contradicts.

The quantity driving both results is SnS_nSn​, the expected number of hits by round nnn. A hit consumes the following step's speculation window — after a correct guess the next call is already cached, so no new speculation is launched there — which yields the two-term recursion

S0=0,S1=p,Sn=p (1+Sn−2)+(1−p) Sn−1.S_0 = 0, \qquad S_1 = p, \qquad S_n = p\,(1 + S_{n-2}) + (1-p)\,S_{n-1}.S0​=0,S1​=p,Sn​=p(1+Sn−2​)+(1−p)Sn−1​.

Write Tseq,MseqT_{\mathrm{seq}}, M_{\mathrm{seq}}Tseq​,Mseq​ for the latency and token cost of strictly sequential execution, and Tspec,MspecT_{\mathrm{spec}}, M_{\mathrm{spec}}Tspec​,Mspec​ for their speculative counterparts. In the depth regime latencies are taken deterministic: aaa for a real call, b<ab < ab<a for a speculative one.

Target

The goal theorem is the finite-horizon latency ratio for breadth-focused speculation (Proposition 1), with p(k)p(k)p(k) abbreviated pkp_kpk​:

E[Tspec]E[Tseq]=1−1T αα+β[(T−1)pk1+pk+pk2(1+pk)2−pk2(1+pk)2(−pk)T−1].\frac{\mathbb{E}[T_{\mathrm{spec}}]}{\mathbb{E}[T_{\mathrm{seq}}]} = 1 - \frac{1}{T}\,\frac{\alpha}{\alpha+\beta} \left[\frac{(T-1)p_k}{1+p_k} + \frac{p_k^2}{(1+p_k)^2} - \frac{p_k^2}{(1+p_k)^2}(-p_k)^{T-1}\right].E[Tseq​]E[Tspec​]​=1−T1​α+βα​[1+pk​(T−1)pk​​+(1+pk​)2pk2​​−(1+pk​)2pk2​​(−pk​)T−1].

The supporting targets, ordered as the analysis builds them:

  1. the closed form Sn=p1+pn+p2(1+p)2(1−(−p)n)S_n = \frac{p}{1+p}n + \frac{p^2}{(1+p)^2}\bigl(1 - (-p)^n\bigr)Sn​=1+pp​n+(1+p)2p2​(1−(−p)n) solving the recursion;
  2. the per-hit saving E[(B−A)+]=αβ(α+β)\mathbb{E}[(B-A)^+] = \frac{\alpha}{\beta(\alpha+\beta)}E[(B−A)+]=β(α+β)α​ for independent A∼Exp(α)A \sim \mathrm{Exp}(\alpha)A∼Exp(α), B∼Exp(β)B \sim \mathrm{Exp}(\beta)B∼Exp(β);
  3. the T→∞T \to \inftyT→∞ limit 1−pk1+pk⋅αα+β1 - \frac{p_k}{1+p_k}\cdot\frac{\alpha}{\alpha+\beta}1−1+pk​pk​​⋅α+βα​, and the resulting 50% ceiling: the latency reduction is strictly below 12\tfrac1221​ for every pk≤1p_k \le 1pk​≤1;
  4. the cost counterpart (Theorem 4), finite-horizon and in the limit, with k~\tilde kk~ the number of distinct actions across the kkk branches;
  5. the depth-focused time and cost identities (Theorem 6), whose latency coefficient is ppp rather than p1+p\frac{p}{1+p}1+pp​ — raising the speedup ceiling from 12\tfrac1221​ to 111;
  6. the structure of confidence-aware selective speculation (Theorem 3 and Corollary 5): with sorted per-branch confidences, the marginal hit-probability gain is non-increasing, so the optimal breadth is the greedy threshold rule "add a branch while Δ⋆δq(m)≥c\Delta^\star \delta q(m) \ge cΔ⋆δq(m)≥c".

Significance

The analysis is what turns speculation from a trick into a tunable system. Proposition 1 and Theorem 4 are governed by the same quantity pkp_kpk​, so a practitioner who can estimate hit probability can choose kkk offline against a latency/cost budget rather than by trial. The 50% ceiling is a genuine negative result — it says breadth alone cannot do better, and motivates the depth regime, where the ceiling becomes 1. Theorem 3 explains why confidence-based branch selection is cheap in practice: the whole dynamic program collapses to one scalar continuation value, so a runtime system sorts confidences and adds branches greedily in O(k)O(k)O(k) per step.

The paper's proofs are pen-and-paper and, as far as we are aware, none of these results has a machine-checked proof. Three parts reward formalization specifically. The recursion's closed form is derived by a characteristic-equation argument with a particular solution that collides with the homogeneous part — routine but error-prone. The per-hit saving is an honest two-dimensional integral over independent exponentials. And Theorem 6's cost expression is stated in the paper with a floor function and then immediately replaced by an approximation, so formalizing it forces a decision about which claim is actually being asserted (see Formalization scope).

Difficulty

The obvious first move on the recursion — guess a constant particular solution — fails, because r=1r = 1r=1 is a root of the characteristic polynomial r2−(1−p)r−pr^2 - (1-p)r - pr2−(1−p)r−p and a constant trial collides with the homogeneous family; the particular solution is linear in nnn, and the p2(1+p)2\frac{p^2}{(1+p)^2}(1+p)2p2​ coefficient comes out of matching both initial conditions, not one.

The interesting hypothesis is the one the recursion's shape encodes and the prose states only in passing: a hit at round ttt removes the speculation window at round t+1t+1t+1. Drop it and the recursion becomes one-term and the answer changes.

For the per-hit saving, the difficulty is analytic rather than algebraic: the inner antiderivative of (b−a)αe−αa(b-a)\alpha e^{-\alpha a}(b−a)αe−αa must be handled, and the outer integral runs over an unbounded interval, so integrability has to be established rather than assumed.

The asymptotic statements need the oscillating term (−pk)T−1(-p_k)^{T-1}(−pk​)T−1 controlled uniformly — it is bounded, not vanishing termwise in an obvious way — before the 1T\tfrac1TT1​ prefactor can be taken to zero.

Formalization scope

Everything is over R\mathbb{R}R. The model lives in one definition bundle, Def_SpecActions_model, in namespace SpecActions; the mission's Lean names match the prose symbols (SnS_nSn​ is hits, p(k)p(k)p(k) is phit, k~\tilde kk~ is kt).

The model is formalized at the level the paper's own proofs use: E[T]\mathbb{E}[T]E[T] and E[M]\mathbb{E}[M]E[M] are defined by the expressions Appendix A derives for them (specTime, specCost, and their depth analogues), and the theorems assert the algebraic and asymptotic identities relating those quantities. Deriving those expressions from a measure-theoretic model of the execution trace is deliberately not in scope — with one exception: milestone 2 states the per-hit saving as a genuine iterated integral against the exponential densities, so the one probabilistic step the paper actually computes is formalized as an integral rather than assumed.

Conventions a solver should know before starting:

  • Statements are quantified over α,β>0\alpha, \beta > 0α,β>0 and 0≤pk≤10 \le p_k \le 10≤pk​≤1; the standing assumption β<α\beta < \alphaβ<α is not imposed, since none of the identities need it.
  • Finite-horizon statements carry 1≤T1 \le T1≤T, and T−1T-1T−1 is natural-number subtraction — the T=0T = 0T=0 case is excluded rather than silently truncated.
  • hits takes pkp_kpk​ (the per-step hit probability p(k)p(k)p(k)), not the per-branch ppp; phit relates the two, and Thm_SpecActions_phit_bounds supplies the 0≤p(k)≤10 \le p(k) \le 10≤p(k)≤1 range facts the other statements assume.
  • Theorem 6's cost is stated as the exact identity, not the paper's approximation. The paper gives an exact expression involving ⌊a/b⌋\lfloor a/b \rfloor⌊a/b⌋ and then an ≈\approx≈ form with a2b−12\frac{a}{2b} - \frac122ba​−21​; these coincide only when a/ba/ba/b is an integer. The milestone asserts the exact floor version, which is what the proof establishes.
  • The 50% ceiling is stated as the strict bound pk1+pk⋅αα+β<12\frac{p_k}{1+p_k}\cdot\frac{\alpha}{\alpha+\beta} < \frac121+pk​pk​​⋅α+βα​<21​, which holds for all admissible parameters; the paper's "upper bound of 50%, occurring when p=1p=1p=1 and α=∞\alpha = \inftyα=∞" describes an unattained supremum.
  • Theorem 3's dynamic program is formalized as the two facts that carry its content — diminishing marginal returns, and optimality of the greedy threshold breadth — rather than as a Bellman recursion over a mode process, which would require a full MDP development.

Reusable beyond this mission: the two-term linear recursion solved in milestone 1, and the E[(B−A)+]\mathbb{E}[(B-A)^+]E[(B−A)+] computation for independent exponentials, which is a standard fact absent from Mathlib. Contributions extending the model toward an actual measure on execution traces — deriving specTime rather than defining it — are welcome as follow-on work.

Selected references

  • Naimeng Ye, Arnav Ahuja, Georgios Liargkovas, Yunan Lu, Kostis Kaffes, Tianyi Peng. Speculative Actions: A Lossless Framework for Faster Agentic Systems. ICLR 2026. arXiv:2510.04371 — Proposition 1 (p. 4), Appendix A (pp. 13–14), Theorem 3 (p. 10), Theorem 4 (p. 19), Corollary 5 (p. 22), Theorem 6 (p. 23).
  • Yaniv Leviathan, Matan Kalman, Yossi Matias. Fast Inference from Transformers via Speculative Decoding. ICML 2023. arXiv:2211.17192 — the speculate-verify pattern at token level.
  • Wenyue Hua, Mengting Wan, Shashank Vadrevu, Ryan Nadel, Yongfeng Zhang, Chi Wang. Interactive Speculative Planning. 2024. arXiv:2410.00079 — depth-oriented speculation on a single planning branch.
  • Yilin Guan et al. Dynamic Speculative Agent Planning. 2025. arXiv:2509.01920 — online RL for choosing speculation depth under a cost-latency trade-off.
  • Robert M. Tomasulo. An Efficient Algorithm for Exploiting Multiple Arithmetic Units. IBM Journal of Research and Development, 1967. DOI:10.1147/rd.111.0025 — speculative execution in hardware.
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Bandit AlgorithmsOperations Research·Captain: Shuze Chen

Bandit Algorithms XII: Follow-the-Regularised-Leader and Mirror DescentTextbook

Beneath Exp3, Exp4 and their relatives lies one algorithm: minimize past losses plus a convex regularizer. Chapters 26–28 of Lattimore–Szepesvári develop this unifying view. For a Legendre potential FFF with Bregman divergence DFD_FDF​, both mirror descent and follow-the-regularised-leader satisfy the master bound Rn(a)≤F(a)−F(a1)η+1η∑tDF(at,a~t+1)R_n(a) \le \frac{F(a) - F(a_1)}{\eta} + \frac{1}{\eta}\sum_t D_F(a_t, \tilde a_{t+1})Rn​(a)≤ηF(a)−F(a1​)​+η1​∑t​DF​(at​,a~t+1​); the negentropy potential on the simplex recovers Exp3 exactly. The goal theorem is the payoff for adversarial linear bandits: FTRL on the unit ball with the self-concordant-flavoured potential F(a)=−log⁡(1−∥a∥)−∥a∥F(a) = -\log(1-\|a\|) - \|a\|F(a)=−log(1−∥a∥)−∥a∥ achieves Rn≤23ndlog⁡nR_n \le 2\sqrt{3nd\log n}Rn​≤23ndlogn​ — improving the d\sqrt{d}d​ factor over the Exp3-style approach of Chapter 27 and matching the Ω(dn)\Omega(d\sqrt{n})Ω(dn​) lower bound of Mission XI up to logarithms.

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Bandit AlgorithmsOperations Research·Captain: Shuze Chen

Bandit Algorithms VIII: Contextual Bandits and Exp4Textbook

Real decisions come with context: a news site chooses an article for a particular user. Competing with the single best arm is then meaningless; the right benchmark is the best mapping from contexts to arms, or more generally the best of MMM expert policies. Chapter 18 of Lattimore–Szepesvári formalizes this via Exp4 — exponential weighting over experts, fed by the importance-weighted estimator of Mission V. The goal theorem: with learning rate η=2log⁡(M)/(nk)\eta = \sqrt{2\log(M)/(nk)}η=2log(M)/(nk)​, Exp4 satisfies Rn≤2nklog⁡MR_n \le \sqrt{2nk\log M}Rn​≤2nklogM​ against the best of MMM experts. Since MMM enters only logarithmically, the learner can compete with exponentially large policy classes — the conceptual gateway from bandits to reinforcement learning with function approximation.

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Captain: Minghui

DARE the Extreme: Output Concentration under Delta-Parameter PruningResearch Paper

Random pruning changes more than the expected output

A fine-tuned model can be stored as a pretrained model together with its parameter changes. Pruning these delta parameters reduces the amount of task-specific information to store. The DARE procedure independently deletes each change with probability ppp and multiplies every surviving change by 1/(1−p)1/(1-p)1/(1−p). This preserves the expected linear-layer output, but a single pruned model can still differ substantially from that expectation.

Deng and coauthors investigate this distinction in DARE the Extreme: Revisiting Delta-Parameter Pruning For Fine-Tuned Models, ICLR 2025. The paper motivates changes to the rescaling rule and to fine-tuning regularization. This mission focuses on its finite-sample mathematical analysis: the relation between random pruning, coefficient energy, and output concentration. Its goal is the Kearns–Saul bound in Appendix E.1, equation (8), PDF p. 30, expressed through the coefficient statistics used in Section 3.2.

The distinction between that appendix result and the printed Theorem 3.1 matters. The mission does not assert the latter's piecewise formula. Its low-pruning branch omits the square root present in equation (8), and its high-pruning branch applies a one-sided refinement to a two-sided event. The exact target below retains the appendix's valid bound across the entire interval 0<p<10<p<10<p<1.

A fixed layer and a random mask

Fix one output coordinate of a linear layer, an input vector xxx, and a delta-weight row ΔW\Delta WΔW. There are n>0n>0n>0 input coordinates. Define the deterministic influence coefficients cj=ΔWjxjc_j=\Delta W_jx_jcj​=ΔWj​xj​, their sum S=∑jcjS=\sum_jc_jS=∑j​cj​, and their energy Q=∑jcj2Q=\sum_jc_j^2Q=∑j​cj2​. Equivalently, the formal statements quantify over every real coefficient vector ccc; choosing xj=1x_j=1xj​=1 realizes every such vector in the layer model.

The only randomness is the pruning mask. Write ωj=1\omega_j=1ωj​=1 for a dropped coordinate, with mutually independent ωj∼Bernoulli⁡(p)\omega_j\sim\operatorname{Bernoulli}(p)ωj​∼Bernoulli(p). A mask has probability

wp(ω)=∏j=1n{p,ωj=1,1−p,ωj=0.w_p(\omega)=\prod_{j=1}^n\begin{cases}p,&\omega_j=1,\\1-p,&\omega_j=0.\end{cases}wp​(ω)=j=1∏n​{p,1−p,​ωj​=1,ωj​=0.​

Expectations and event probabilities are the finite weighted sums against wpw_pwp​. A surviving coordinate is rescaled by 1/q1/q1/q, where q>0q>0q>0. The output error, original minus pruned, is

Hq(ω)=∑jcj(1−1−ωjq).H_q(\omega)=\sum_jc_j\left(1-\frac{1-\omega_j}{q}\right).Hq​(ω)=j∑​cj​(1−q1−ωj​​).

DARE uses q=1−pq=1-pq=1−p; denote its error by HHH. This is the retention-mask formulation in Section 3.2, equation (2), PDF p. 5, with δj=1−ωj\delta_j=1-\omega_jδj​=1−ωj​. The empirical coefficient mean and variance are cˉ=S/n\bar c=S/ncˉ=S/n and σ2=n−1∑j(cj−cˉ)2\sigma^2=n^{-1}\sum_j(c_j-\bar c)^2σ2=n−1∑j​(cj​−cˉ)2. These statistics describe a fixed vector, not another source of randomness.

Formalization targets

Define the concentration coefficient with its removable singularity filled in:

Φ(p)={12,p=12,1−2plog⁡((1−p)/p),p≠12.\Phi(p)=\begin{cases}\frac12,&p=\frac12,\\\frac{1-2p}{\log((1-p)/p)},&p\ne\frac12.\end{cases}Φ(p)={21​,log((1−p)/p)1−2p​,​p=21​,p=21​.​

For every 0<p<10<p<10<p<1 and failure probability 0<γ<10<\gamma<10<γ<1, the goal is

Pr⁡{∣H∣≤Φ(p)1−pn(cˉ2+σ2)log⁡(2/γ)}≥1−γ.\boxed{\Pr\left\{|H|\le\frac{\sqrt{\Phi(p)}}{1-p}\sqrt{n(\bar c^2+\sigma^2)}\sqrt{\log(2/\gamma)}\right\}\ge1-\gamma.}Pr{∣H∣≤1−pΦ(p)​​n(cˉ2+σ2)​log(2/γ)​}≥1−γ.​

This is Appendix E.1, equation (8), PDF p. 30, followed by the unnumbered energy identity on PDF p. 31. Zero coefficients are included: no positive-energy assumption is attached to the goal.

Four supporting milestones state the following results.

  1. Coefficient statistics: Q=n(cˉ2+σ2)Q=n(\bar c^2+\sigma^2)Q=n(cˉ2+σ2) for n>0n>0n>0, as used in the final algebraic step of Appendix E.1, PDF p. 31.
  2. Exact moments: for 0≤p≤10\le p\le10≤p≤1 and q>0q>0q>0, let bq=(1−(1−p)/q)Sb_q=(1-(1-p)/q)Sbq​=(1−(1−p)/q)S. Then EHq=bq\mathbb EH_q=b_qEHq​=bq​, E(Hq−bq)2=p(1−p)Q/q2\mathbb E(H_q-b_q)^2=p(1-p)Q/q^2E(Hq​−bq​)2=p(1−p)Q/q2, and EHq2=bq2+p(1−p)Q/q2\mathbb EH_q^2=b_q^2+p(1-p)Q/q^2EHq2​=bq2​+p(1−p)Q/q2. This is a paper-derived extension of the calculations on PDF p. 29 to the general rescaling model introduced in Appendix E.2, PDF p. 31. In particular, DARE has mean zero and mean square pQ/(1−p)pQ/(1-p)pQ/(1−p).
  3. Kearns–Saul exponential moment: 0<Φ(p)≤1/20<\Phi(p)\le1/20<Φ(p)≤1/2 and, for every real ttt,
(1−p)e−tp+pet(1−p)≤eΦ(p)t2/4.(1-p)e^{-tp}+pe^{t(1-p)}\le e^{\Phi(p)t^2/4}.(1−p)e−tp+pet(1−p)≤eΦ(p)t2/4.

The analytic input is Berend–Kontorovich, Section 3, Theorem 4, equation (6), PDF pp. 3–4. The bound on Φ\PhiΦ is also stated in the DAREx appendix on PDF p. 30. 4. Exponential output tail: for Q>0Q>0Q>0 and t>0t>0t>0,

Pr⁡{∣H∣>t}≤2exp⁡(−t2(1−p)2Φ(p)Q).\Pr\{|H|>t\}\le2\exp\left(-\frac{t^2(1-p)^2}{\Phi(p)Q}\right).Pr{∣H∣>t}≤2exp(−Φ(p)Qt2(1−p)2​).

This is the unnumbered display immediately preceding equation (8), PDF p. 30.

What the result establishes

The target quantifies the error of a randomly selected pruned layer in terms of its actual influence coefficients. It distinguishes preserving an expectation from controlling a realization. The moment identities also expose the bias introduced by choosing a rescaling denominator different from 1−p1-p1−p.

Formalization supplies a precise probability model and checks every coefficient, sign, and exceptional case. The finite mask model and its normalization already compile locally with proofs. The five milestone and goal statements have been elaborated, but their theorem proofs remain open. Completing this mission would formalize the selected appendix result; it would not establish the paper's experimental accuracy claims, a whole-network guarantee, or an optimal rescaling rule.

Why the tail direction matters

Signed coefficients require exponential-moment control for both positive and negative arguments. The sharper estimate in Berend–Kontorovich, Lemma 5, equation (9), PDF p. 4 has a nonnegative-argument restriction. Using it for an unrestricted absolute tail loses an essential hypothesis.

For example, with n=1n=1n=1, c1=1c_1=1c1​=1, p=99/100p=99/100p=99/100, and γ=1/200\gamma=1/200γ=1/200, the error is 111 with probability 99/10099/10099/100 and −99-99−99 with probability 1/1001/1001/100. The printed Theorem 3.1 threshold is 198log⁡400<99\sqrt{198\log400}<99198log400​<99, so its failure probability exceeds γ\gammaγ. This concrete source audit is the reason for selecting equation (8), not a claim that the printed theorem has been formally disproved in Lean.

Formalization scope

The Lean model uses real coefficients indexed by Fin n and Boolean functions for masks. Nonnegative masses and normalization are proved from the product formula; concentration is never assumed in a structure field. Fixed weights and inputs are external data. Random training, dependence between masks, nonlinear activations, structural pruning, and empirical validation are outside this mission.

The main goal requires n>0n>0n>0 for the empirical statistics, 0<p<10<p<10<p<1 for DARE rescaling, and 0<γ<10<\gamma<10<γ<1 for the confidence level. The moments permit empty coefficient vectors and endpoint probabilities because they use a separate positive qqq. The exponential-tail milestone requires Q>0Q>0Q>0 to avoid division by zero; the main goal includes Q=0Q=0Q=0. The value Φ(1/2)=1/2\Phi(1/2)=1/2Φ(1/2)=1/2 is explicit. No theorem relies on Lean's total division or logarithm to supply a missing analytic hypothesis.

Selected references

  • Wenlong Deng, Yize Zhao, Vala Vakilian, Minghui Chen, Xiaoxiao Li, Christos Thrampoulidis. DARE the Extreme: Revisiting Delta-Parameter Pruning For Fine-Tuned Models. ICLR 2025. arXiv:2410.09344v2. Section 3.2, PDF p. 5, equation (2), Theorem 3.1; Appendix E.1, PDF pp. 28–31, Theorem E.1 and equations (6)–(8); Appendix E.2, PDF p. 31, initial unnumbered rescaling identity.
  • Daniel Berend and Aryeh Kontorovich. On the Concentration of the Missing Mass. Electronic Communications in Probability 18 (2013). arXiv:1210.3248v1. Section 3, PDF pp. 3–4, Theorem 4 and equation (6); Lemma 5 and equation (9) explain the excluded one-sided refinement.
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Linear algebraProbability·Captain: Minghui

Fine-Tuning Can Distort Pretrained Features: Perfect-Feature LP-FT SeparationResearch Paper

Why initialization matters for transfer learning

Transfer learning starts with a representation learned on an earlier task and adapts it to a new one. Two common choices are linear probing, which changes only the final linear predictor, and fine-tuning, which changes the representation as well. These procedures optimize related training objectives, but their behavior away from the training data can differ. Kumar and coauthors study this distinction through two-layer linear networks, alongside experiments with nonlinear networks. This mission formalizes their perfect-feature LP-FT result, rather than the empirical claims or the general imperfect-feature comparison. See Section 3.4, Proposition 3.7, PDF p. 10.

LP-FT first learns a head by linear probing and then uses that head to initialize full fine-tuning. The perfect-feature setting isolates the effect of head initialization: the representation already contains exactly the features needed to predict the labels, but the head initially need not use them correctly. The mathematical question is whether joint training preserves or loses the representation's ability to predict outside the observed training subspace.

Linear predictors, training data, and OOD loss

An input is a vector x∈Rdx\in\mathbb R^dx∈Rd. A feature extractor is a matrix B∈Rk×dB\in\mathbb R^{k\times d}B∈Rk×d, and a head is a vector v∈Rkv\in\mathbb R^kv∈Rk. Together they predict v⊤Bxv^\top Bxv⊤Bx, with effective weight vector B⊤vB^\top vB⊤v. The fixed matrix X∈Rn×dX\in\mathbb R^{n\times d}X∈Rn×d contains the nnn training inputs as rows. Their span is S=rowspace⁡(X)S=\operatorname{rowspace}(X)S=rowspace(X), with dimension mmm.

The ground truth has orthonormal-row features B⋆B_\starB⋆​ and a nonzero head v⋆v_\starv⋆​. Write w⋆=B⋆⊤v⋆w_\star=B_\star^\top v_\starw⋆​=B⋆⊤​v⋆​ and Y=Xw⋆Y=Xw_\starY=Xw⋆​. Perfect pretrained features mean B0=UB⋆B_0=UB_\starB0​=UB⋆​ for an orthogonal matrix UUU. The corresponding aligned head is u=Uv⋆u=Uv_\staru=Uv⋆​. The dimensions satisfy 1≤k≤m1\le k\le m1≤k≤m and m+k<dm+k<dm+k<d.

The two geometric assumptions require the orthogonal projections from R0=rowspace⁡(B0)R_0=\operatorname{rowspace}(B_0)R0​=rowspace(B0​) into SSS and into S⊥S^\perpS⊥ to be injective. In this dimension regime these are exactly the positive largest-principal-angle cosine conditions used by the paper. They demand more than two subspaces having some nonorthogonal directions. The Lean definition spells out injectivity of v↦ΠTB0⊤vv\mapsto\Pi_T B_0^\top vv↦ΠT​B0⊤​v for each T∈{S,S⊥}T\in\{S,S^\perp\}T∈{S,S⊥}. See Definition 3.2 and Appendix A.1, PDF pp. 7 and 22-23.

An out-of-distribution law μ\muμ is any probability measure on Rd\mathbb R^dRd with a finite second moment and positive-definite uncentered second-moment matrix Σ=Eμ[xx⊤]\Sigma=\mathbb E_\mu[xx^\top]Σ=Eμ​[xx⊤]. Its mean need not be zero. Define

LOOD(v,B)=Ex∼μ[(v⊤Bx−w⋆⊤x)2].L_{\rm OOD}(v,B)=\mathbb E_{x\sim\mu} [(v^\top Bx-w_\star^\top x)^2].LOOD​(v,B)=Ex∼μ​[(v⊤Bx−w⋆⊤​x)2].

Both training methods use the unnormalized loss L^(v,B)=∥XB⊤v−Y∥22\widehat L(v,B)=\|XB^\top v-Y\|_2^2L(v,B)=∥XB⊤v−Y∥22​. Fine-tuning follows its gradient flow in both parameters; linear probing keeps B=B0B=B_0B=B0​. Time is real and nonnegative. These are the paper's equations (3.2)-(3.3), PDF p. 6.

Formalization targets

The goal is Proposition 3.7 in an explicit nonzero-signal regime. For σ>0\sigma>0σ>0, initialize an FT head with independent Gaussian coordinates, v0∼N(0,σ2Ik)v_0\sim\mathcal N(0,\sigma^2I_k)v0​∼N(0,σ2Ik​). Establish

Pr⁡ ⁣[∀t≥0,LOOD(vFT(t),BFT(t))>0]=1.\Pr\!\left[\forall t\ge0,\quad L_{\rm OOD}(v_{\rm FT}(t),B_{\rm FT}(t))>0\right]=1.Pr[∀t≥0,LOOD​(vFT​(t),BFT​(t))>0]=1.

Linear probing, from any initial head, must converge to uuu. Fine-tuning initialized at its limit must satisfy

vLP(t)⟶u,∀t≥0,LOOD(vLP-FT(t),BLP-FT(t))=0.v_{\rm LP}(t)\longrightarrow u,\qquad \forall t\ge0,\quad L_{\rm OOD}(v_{\rm LP\text{-}FT}(t),B_{\rm LP\text{-}FT}(t))=0.vLP​(t)⟶u,∀t≥0,LOOD​(vLP-FT​(t),BLP-FT​(t))=0.

The probability-one event applies to all times simultaneously. The goal also asserts existence of the relevant global flows; a conditional claim about a possibly nonexistent trajectory would not suffice. The statement does not assert a numerical error lower bound or a positive time-infimum.

Seven milestones supply the supporting results: global flow existence and FT uniqueness; unchanged features orthogonal to the training span; the balancedness invariant; the second-moment identity for OOD risk; almost-sure Gaussian head misalignment; exact LP recovery; and stationarity after LP initialization. The principal source is Appendices A.2 and A.7, PDF pp. 23-31 and 45-47.

What the result establishes

The result distinguishes two initializations of the same joint-training procedure. In this idealized setting, a head obtained by linear probing gives zero OOD loss throughout subsequent fine-tuning, while a Gaussian head almost surely has positive OOD loss at every finite time. The conclusion concerns population squared prediction error, not classification accuracy or a finite test-set estimate.

The paper establishes the mathematical claim; this mission asks for a Lean proof of the stated model and result. The scope is deliberately limited to perfect pretrained features. It does not claim an LP-FT upper bound for imperfect features, which the authors identify as a further challenge in Section 3.4, PDF p. 10. A completed development would also provide reusable components for finite dimensional gradient flows, factorized linear models, and population risk.

Why the proof needs the training dynamics

The training loss alone does not select a unique effective predictor in an overparameterized problem. Knowing that a predictor fits the observed examples therefore does not determine its OOD loss. Formalization must track the head and feature extractor together, and it must distinguish parameter stationarity from a claim that a derivative happens to vanish at one time. The Gaussian conclusion also requires one event controlling an uncountable set of times; separate probability-one statements for individual times would be weaker.

Formalization scope and conventions

Vectors use Mathlib's finite dimensional real Euclidean spaces. Matrices are represented as continuous linear maps, with Euclidean adjoints and operator norms. The feature update is written explicitly as the Frobenius-gradient equation; it is not a gradient with respect to the operator norm. Differentiability is imposed within [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞), including the right derivative at zero.

The dimensions, nonzero target, positive Gaussian scale, finite second moments, and projection injectivity are explicit. The nonzero target restricts the formalization to the regime of the Gaussian alignment argument in Lemma A.12; k≤mk\le mk≤m makes the identifiability condition used in Proposition A.20 precise. The random-head law is the scaled standard Gaussian measure. No randomness of the fixed training matrix or independence from an additional data draw is assumed.

The model contains no assumed convergence, invariant, or desired risk bound. Each of those is a theorem obligation. The well-posedness milestone makes explicit an analytic prerequisite of the source's flow notation. The risk milestone uses the identity in (A.29)-(A.32), avoiding the reversed inequality printed in (A.28). The quantitative constant in Theorem 3.3 is outside this mission. Source-aligned proofs and the supporting analysis infrastructure are welcome; changing the learning rule or assuming a milestone inside the model would change the task.

Selected references

  • Ananya Kumar, Aditi Raghunathan, Robbie Jones, Tengyu Ma, and Percy Liang, Fine-Tuning can Distort Pretrained Features and Underperform Out-of-Distribution, ICLR 2022, arXiv:2202.10054v1. Main target: Section 3.4, Proposition 3.7, PDF p. 10, equations (3.10)-(3.11); proof: Appendix A.7, PDF pp. 45-47, Proposition A.20 and (A.208)-(A.218). Supporting invariants: Appendix A.2, PDF p. 24, Lemmas A.3-A.4, equations (A.15)-(A.20). Gaussian alignment: Appendix A.3, PDF pp. 34-35, Lemmas A.11-A.12.
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