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Machine Learning

291 missions · 186 completed

The science of systems that learn from data and experience. Its scope runs from the statistical and mathematical foundations of learning, including generalization, expressivity, and computational limits, through the design of learning algorithms, deep learning, reinforcement learning, and probabilistic methods, to the empirical study of large models and the trustworthiness, interpretability, and societal impact of learned systems.

Missions

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Operations ResearchProbabilityTheoretical Computer Science·Captain: mikedeng1

Competitive Caching with Machine Learned Advice: The Competitive Ratio of Predictive MarkerResearch Paper

Motivation

Caching (online paging) is one of the oldest problems in online algorithms: a fast memory of kkk slots serves a sequence of requests, and every request for an element not in the fast memory is a cache miss that forces the element to be loaded, possibly evicting another one. With the whole request sequence known in advance, evicting the element whose next request is furthest in the future is optimal (Bélády, 1966). Without that knowledge, no deterministic algorithm is better than kkk-competitive, and the best randomized algorithms are Θ(log⁡k)\Theta(\log k)Θ(logk)-competitive (Fiat, Karp, Luby, McGeoch, Sleator and Young, 1991).

Lykouris and Vassilvitskii asked what happens in between: an online algorithm receives, with every request, a machine-learned prediction of the element's next arrival time. A good predictor should make the algorithm nearly as good as Bélády's rule (consistency), and a bad predictor should never make it worse than a classical algorithm (robustness). Their paper (arXiv:1802.05399v4; J. ACM 2021) is one of the founding papers of learning-augmented algorithms, and its algorithm, Predictive Marker, is the reference point for the later literature on caching with predictions.

Timeline.

  • 1966: Bélády's furthest-in-future rule is optimal offline.
  • 1985: Sleator and Tarjan show that deterministic online paging is at best kkk-competitive.
  • 1991: Fiat et al. introduce the Marker algorithm, 2Hk2H_k2Hk​-competitive, and the clean-element lower bound on the optimum.
  • 2018: Lykouris and Vassilvitskii (arXiv:1802.05399) introduce Predictive Marker, with ratio 2min⁡(1+2Sℓ(ϵ),2Hk)2\min(1+2S_\ell(\epsilon), 2H_k)2min(1+2Sℓ​(ϵ),2Hk​) for an ϵ\epsilonϵ-accurate predictor.
  • 2020: Rohatgi (arXiv:1910.12172, SODA 2020) and Wei (arXiv:2005.13716, APPROX/RANDOM 2020) improve the dependence on the error.

Setting

A request sequence σ=(z1,…,zn)\sigma = (z_1, \dots, z_n)σ=(z1​,…,zn​) lists elements of a set ZZZ. A cache of size k≥1k \ge 1k≥1 starts empty. A request for a cached element is a hit; otherwise it is a miss, the element is loaded, and if the cache is full some element is evicted first. The offline optimum Opt(σ)\mathrm{Opt}(\sigma)Opt(σ) is the least number of misses over all eviction schedules chosen with knowledge of σ\sigmaσ.

With each request ziz_izi​ the algorithm receives a real prediction hih_ihi​. The true label yiy_iyi​ is the position of the next request of ziz_izi​, or n+1n+1n+1 if there is none. For a loss function ℓ≥0\ell \ge 0ℓ≥0, the error of the predictions is ηℓ(h,σ)=∑iℓ(yi,hi)\eta_\ell(h,\sigma) = \sum_i \ell(y_i, h_i)ηℓ​(h,σ)=∑i​ℓ(yi​,hi​), and the predictions are ϵ\epsilonϵ-accurate when ηℓ(h,σ)≤ϵ⋅Opt(σ)\eta_\ell(h,\sigma) \le \epsilon \cdot \mathrm{Opt}(\sigma)ηℓ​(h,σ)≤ϵ⋅Opt(σ).

The spread of ℓ\ellℓ measures how cheaply a predictor can get the order of arrivals completely wrong: Sℓ(m)S_\ell(m)Sℓ​(m) is the least length T≥1T \ge 1T≥1 such that every strictly increasing integer sequence a1<⋯<aTa_1 < \dots < a_Ta1​<⋯<aT​ and every non-increasing real sequence b1≥⋯≥bTb_1 \ge \dots \ge b_Tb1​≥⋯≥bT​ have total loss ∑iℓ(ai,bi)≥m\sum_i \ell(a_i, b_i) \ge m∑i​ℓ(ai​,bi​)≥m.

Predictive Marker (Algorithm 1) works in the phases of the Marker algorithm. Requested elements are marked. A phase ends when the cache is full, every cached element is marked, and a miss occurs; then all marks are removed. An element requested in a phase but not in the previous one is clean, and Q(σ)Q(\sigma)Q(σ) is the total number of clean elements. Each clean miss starts a chain. An element evicted in the current phase that is requested again (a stale miss) extends the chain in which it was evicted. Evictions are among unmarked elements. As long as the chain's length n(r,c)n(r,c)n(r,c) is at most Hk=1+12+⋯+1kH_k = 1 + \tfrac12 + \dots + \tfrac1kHk​=1+21​+⋯+k1​, the evicted element is one with the largest prediction. After that it is chosen uniformly at random. The expected number of misses of Predictive Marker is costPM(σ)\mathrm{cost}_{PM}(\sigma)costPM​(σ).

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3.3

If SSS is concave on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞) and majorizes the spread, then for every ϵ≥0\epsilon \ge 0ϵ≥0, every tie-breaking rule, and every sequence with ϵ\epsilonϵ-accurate predictions,

E[costPM(σ)]≤2⋅min⁡(1+2S(ϵ), 2Hk)⋅Opt(σ).\mathbb E\bigl[\mathrm{cost}_{PM}(\sigma)\bigr] \le 2\cdot\min\bigl(1 + 2S(\epsilon),\ 2H_k\bigr)\cdot \mathrm{Opt}(\sigma).E[costPM​(σ)]≤2⋅min(1+2S(ϵ), 2Hk​)⋅Opt(σ).

Milestones

  • Claim 1 (Fiat et al.): Q(σ)≤2 Opt(σ)Q(\sigma) \le 2\,\mathrm{Opt}(\sigma)Q(σ)≤2Opt(σ).
  • Proof of Theorem 3.3, last sentence: Opt(σ)≤Q(σ)\mathrm{Opt}(\sigma) \le Q(\sigma)Opt(σ)≤Q(σ).
  • Lemma 3.3: a chain that evicts by the predictions only has length n(r,c)≤1+S(ηr,c)n(r,c) \le 1 + S(\eta_{r,c})n(r,c)≤1+S(ηr,c​), where ηr,c\eta_{r,c}ηr,c​ is the error of the predictions on the elements evicted into it.
  • Lemma 3.4: E[n(r,c)]≤E[min⁡(1+2S(ηr,c),2Hk)]\mathbb E[n(r,c)] \le \mathbb E[\min(1 + 2S(\eta_{r,c}), 2H_k)]E[n(r,c)]≤E[min(1+2S(ηr,c​),2Hk​)].

Significance

The result. Theorem 3.3 gives both guarantees at once. For an exact predictor (ϵ=0\epsilon = 0ϵ=0) the ratio is a constant, 2(1+2S(0))2(1 + 2S(0))2(1+2S(0)), independent of kkk; for an arbitrary predictor it is 4Hk4H_k4Hk​, within a constant factor of the optimal randomized ratio. In between, the ratio degrades with the error at the rate of the spread: for the absolute loss the spread grows like m\sqrt mm​, so the ratio grows like ϵ\sqrt\epsilonϵ​. The spread and the chain decomposition are the tools later papers build on to trade consistency against robustness.

Formalizing it. The theorem is proved on paper; no machine-checked proof of it, of the Marker analysis, or of the clean-element bound of Fiat et al. is known. A formalization supplies a precise model of a randomized online algorithm with predictions. It also settles the details the paper leaves implicit: the eviction missing from the clean branch of Algorithm 1 as printed, the cap 2Hk2H_k2Hk​ printed as 2log⁡k2\log k2logk in Lemma 3.4, and the behaviour of the spread at 000.

Difficulty

The obvious argument charges every miss to a chain and bounds each chain separately. That works for chains that follow the predictions, but a chain that switches to random evictions interacts with every other chain of the phase, because all of them evict from the same pool of unmarked elements. A bound on its expected length must hold whatever the other chains evict, including evictions that depend on earlier coin flips. A second difficulty is summing. The chain errors ηr,c\eta_{r,c}ηr,c​ and the chain lengths are both random, while the hypothesis controls only the total error ηℓ(h,σ)\eta_\ell(h,\sigma)ηℓ​(h,σ) against Opt(σ)\mathrm{Opt}(\sigma)Opt(σ), not the number of chains Q(σ)Q(\sigma)Q(σ) in which the error is spread.

Formalization scope

Elements form a type with decidable equality. A request sequence is a list; predictions are one real per request, and every real sequence is allowed. Labels are 1-based next-arrival positions, with n+1n+1n+1 for elements never requested again. The paper prints the label with equal features; the element is meant. Opt\mathrm{Opt}Opt is computed as the minimum over all demand-paging schedules from the empty cache, which loses no generality. HkH_kHk​ is harmonic k as a real number, never log⁡k\log klogk.

Predictive Marker is a PMF over final states. The random eviction of line 21 is uniform over the unmarked cached elements, and ties in the arg max are a parameter quantified universally. The eviction of lines 23–24 is also performed after a clean miss; as printed, it sits only in the stale branch. The expected cost lies in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞].

The spread takes real arguments and lengths T≥1T \ge 1T≥1. SSS must be concave on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞), finite, and at least the spread. It must also be continuous at 000, which the paper does not say: without it the chain lemma fails for losses whose minimal reversed-order loss stays 000 over several lengths. ϵ\epsilonϵ-accuracy is the pointwise condition on the given pair (σ,h)(\sigma, h)(σ,h). The competitive ratio is written as a product, so Opt(σ)=0\mathrm{Opt}(\sigma) = 0Opt(σ)=0 needs no special case. Lemma 3.3 is stated pointwise for chains without random evictions, as its proof shows. Lemma 3.4 has 2Hk2H_k2Hk​ in place of the printed 2log⁡k2\log k2logk, with the minimum inside the expectation because ηr,c\eta_{r,c}ηr,c​ is random.

The statement must not be trivialized. Opt\mathrm{Opt}Opt is the true offline optimum, not Bélády's rule applied to the predictions. The expectation is taken over Predictive Marker's own run, never compared with itself. The spread hypothesis is satisfiable; for example, the constant loss 111 has spread max⁡(1,⌈m⌉)≤m+1\max(1,\lceil m\rceil) \le m + 1max(1,⌈m⌉)≤m+1.

Out of scope: Lemma 3.2 (the special-marking algorithm SM, which enters only through Lemma 3.4's proof); Lemma 3.1 and Corollaries 1–2, whose printed constants are false for small mmm or disagree with Theorem 3.3; the lower bounds of §3.1 and §3.4; the extensions of §4; the experiments of §5; running time and learnability.

Welcome contributions: the Marker phase structure and its equivalence with the combinatorial phases, the clean-element bounds Q/2≤Opt≤QQ/2 \le \mathrm{Opt} \le QQ/2≤Opt≤Q (reusable for any marking algorithm), and a bound on the expected number of misses caused by elements evicted uniformly at random within a phase.

Selected references

  • T. Lykouris, S. Vassilvitskii, Competitive Caching with Machine Learned Advice, arXiv:1802.05399v4, 2020; J. ACM 68(4), 2021. https://arxiv.org/abs/1802.05399v4
  • A. Fiat, R. M. Karp, M. Luby, L. A. McGeoch, D. D. Sleator, N. E. Young, Competitive paging algorithms, J. Algorithms 12(4), 1991. https://doi.org/10.1016/0196-6774(91)90041-V
  • L. A. Bélády, A study of replacement algorithms for a virtual-storage computer, IBM Systems Journal 5(2), 1966. https://doi.org/10.1147/sj.52.0078
  • D. D. Sleator, R. E. Tarjan, Amortized efficiency of list update and paging rules, Comm. ACM 28(2), 1985. https://doi.org/10.1145/2786.2793
  • D. Rohatgi, Near-optimal bounds for online caching with machine learned advice, SODA 2020. https://arxiv.org/abs/1910.12172
  • A. Wei, Better and simpler learning-augmented online caching, APPROX/RANDOM 2020. https://arxiv.org/abs/2005.13716
10 thms1 active userReviewed
🏆Completed
Linear algebraProbability·Captain: Minghui

Fine-Tuning Can Distort Pretrained Features: Perfect-Feature LP-FT SeparationResearch Paper

Why initialization matters for transfer learning

Transfer learning starts with a representation learned on an earlier task and adapts it to a new one. Two common choices are linear probing, which changes only the final linear predictor, and fine-tuning, which changes the representation as well. These procedures optimize related training objectives, but their behavior away from the training data can differ. Kumar and coauthors study this distinction through two-layer linear networks, alongside experiments with nonlinear networks. This mission formalizes their perfect-feature LP-FT result, rather than the empirical claims or the general imperfect-feature comparison. See Section 3.4, Proposition 3.7, PDF p. 10.

LP-FT first learns a head by linear probing and then uses that head to initialize full fine-tuning. The perfect-feature setting isolates the effect of head initialization: the representation already contains exactly the features needed to predict the labels, but the head initially need not use them correctly. The mathematical question is whether joint training preserves or loses the representation's ability to predict outside the observed training subspace.

Linear predictors, training data, and OOD loss

An input is a vector x∈Rdx\in\mathbb R^dx∈Rd. A feature extractor is a matrix B∈Rk×dB\in\mathbb R^{k\times d}B∈Rk×d, and a head is a vector v∈Rkv\in\mathbb R^kv∈Rk. Together they predict v⊤Bxv^\top Bxv⊤Bx, with effective weight vector B⊤vB^\top vB⊤v. The fixed matrix X∈Rn×dX\in\mathbb R^{n\times d}X∈Rn×d contains the nnn training inputs as rows. Their span is S=rowspace⁡(X)S=\operatorname{rowspace}(X)S=rowspace(X), with dimension mmm.

The ground truth has orthonormal-row features B⋆B_\starB⋆​ and a nonzero head v⋆v_\starv⋆​. Write w⋆=B⋆⊤v⋆w_\star=B_\star^\top v_\starw⋆​=B⋆⊤​v⋆​ and Y=Xw⋆Y=Xw_\starY=Xw⋆​. Perfect pretrained features mean B0=UB⋆B_0=UB_\starB0​=UB⋆​ for an orthogonal matrix UUU. The corresponding aligned head is u=Uv⋆u=Uv_\staru=Uv⋆​. The dimensions satisfy 1≤k≤m1\le k\le m1≤k≤m and m+k<dm+k<dm+k<d.

The two geometric assumptions require the orthogonal projections from R0=rowspace⁡(B0)R_0=\operatorname{rowspace}(B_0)R0​=rowspace(B0​) into SSS and into S⊥S^\perpS⊥ to be injective. In this dimension regime these are exactly the positive largest-principal-angle cosine conditions used by the paper. They demand more than two subspaces having some nonorthogonal directions. The Lean definition spells out injectivity of v↦ΠTB0⊤vv\mapsto\Pi_T B_0^\top vv↦ΠT​B0⊤​v for each T∈{S,S⊥}T\in\{S,S^\perp\}T∈{S,S⊥}. See Definition 3.2 and Appendix A.1, PDF pp. 7 and 22-23.

An out-of-distribution law μ\muμ is any probability measure on Rd\mathbb R^dRd with a finite second moment and positive-definite uncentered second-moment matrix Σ=Eμ[xx⊤]\Sigma=\mathbb E_\mu[xx^\top]Σ=Eμ​[xx⊤]. Its mean need not be zero. Define

LOOD(v,B)=Ex∼μ[(v⊤Bx−w⋆⊤x)2].L_{\rm OOD}(v,B)=\mathbb E_{x\sim\mu} [(v^\top Bx-w_\star^\top x)^2].LOOD​(v,B)=Ex∼μ​[(v⊤Bx−w⋆⊤​x)2].

Both training methods use the unnormalized loss L^(v,B)=∥XB⊤v−Y∥22\widehat L(v,B)=\|XB^\top v-Y\|_2^2L(v,B)=∥XB⊤v−Y∥22​. Fine-tuning follows its gradient flow in both parameters; linear probing keeps B=B0B=B_0B=B0​. Time is real and nonnegative. These are the paper's equations (3.2)-(3.3), PDF p. 6.

Formalization targets

The goal is Proposition 3.7 in an explicit nonzero-signal regime. For σ>0\sigma>0σ>0, initialize an FT head with independent Gaussian coordinates, v0∼N(0,σ2Ik)v_0\sim\mathcal N(0,\sigma^2I_k)v0​∼N(0,σ2Ik​). Establish

Pr⁡ ⁣[∀t≥0,LOOD(vFT(t),BFT(t))>0]=1.\Pr\!\left[\forall t\ge0,\quad L_{\rm OOD}(v_{\rm FT}(t),B_{\rm FT}(t))>0\right]=1.Pr[∀t≥0,LOOD​(vFT​(t),BFT​(t))>0]=1.

Linear probing, from any initial head, must converge to uuu. Fine-tuning initialized at its limit must satisfy

vLP(t)⟶u,∀t≥0,LOOD(vLP-FT(t),BLP-FT(t))=0.v_{\rm LP}(t)\longrightarrow u,\qquad \forall t\ge0,\quad L_{\rm OOD}(v_{\rm LP\text{-}FT}(t),B_{\rm LP\text{-}FT}(t))=0.vLP​(t)⟶u,∀t≥0,LOOD​(vLP-FT​(t),BLP-FT​(t))=0.

The probability-one event applies to all times simultaneously. The goal also asserts existence of the relevant global flows; a conditional claim about a possibly nonexistent trajectory would not suffice. The statement does not assert a numerical error lower bound or a positive time-infimum.

Seven milestones supply the supporting results: global flow existence and FT uniqueness; unchanged features orthogonal to the training span; the balancedness invariant; the second-moment identity for OOD risk; almost-sure Gaussian head misalignment; exact LP recovery; and stationarity after LP initialization. The principal source is Appendices A.2 and A.7, PDF pp. 23-31 and 45-47.

What the result establishes

The result distinguishes two initializations of the same joint-training procedure. In this idealized setting, a head obtained by linear probing gives zero OOD loss throughout subsequent fine-tuning, while a Gaussian head almost surely has positive OOD loss at every finite time. The conclusion concerns population squared prediction error, not classification accuracy or a finite test-set estimate.

The paper establishes the mathematical claim; this mission asks for a Lean proof of the stated model and result. The scope is deliberately limited to perfect pretrained features. It does not claim an LP-FT upper bound for imperfect features, which the authors identify as a further challenge in Section 3.4, PDF p. 10. A completed development would also provide reusable components for finite dimensional gradient flows, factorized linear models, and population risk.

Why the proof needs the training dynamics

The training loss alone does not select a unique effective predictor in an overparameterized problem. Knowing that a predictor fits the observed examples therefore does not determine its OOD loss. Formalization must track the head and feature extractor together, and it must distinguish parameter stationarity from a claim that a derivative happens to vanish at one time. The Gaussian conclusion also requires one event controlling an uncountable set of times; separate probability-one statements for individual times would be weaker.

Formalization scope and conventions

Vectors use Mathlib's finite dimensional real Euclidean spaces. Matrices are represented as continuous linear maps, with Euclidean adjoints and operator norms. The feature update is written explicitly as the Frobenius-gradient equation; it is not a gradient with respect to the operator norm. Differentiability is imposed within [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞), including the right derivative at zero.

The dimensions, nonzero target, positive Gaussian scale, finite second moments, and projection injectivity are explicit. The nonzero target restricts the formalization to the regime of the Gaussian alignment argument in Lemma A.12; k≤mk\le mk≤m makes the identifiability condition used in Proposition A.20 precise. The random-head law is the scaled standard Gaussian measure. No randomness of the fixed training matrix or independence from an additional data draw is assumed.

The model contains no assumed convergence, invariant, or desired risk bound. Each of those is a theorem obligation. The well-posedness milestone makes explicit an analytic prerequisite of the source's flow notation. The risk milestone uses the identity in (A.29)-(A.32), avoiding the reversed inequality printed in (A.28). The quantitative constant in Theorem 3.3 is outside this mission. Source-aligned proofs and the supporting analysis infrastructure are welcome; changing the learning rule or assuming a milestone inside the model would change the task.

Selected references

  • Ananya Kumar, Aditi Raghunathan, Robbie Jones, Tengyu Ma, and Percy Liang, Fine-Tuning can Distort Pretrained Features and Underperform Out-of-Distribution, ICLR 2022, arXiv:2202.10054v1. Main target: Section 3.4, Proposition 3.7, PDF p. 10, equations (3.10)-(3.11); proof: Appendix A.7, PDF pp. 45-47, Proposition A.20 and (A.208)-(A.218). Supporting invariants: Appendix A.2, PDF p. 24, Lemmas A.3-A.4, equations (A.15)-(A.20). Gaussian alignment: Appendix A.3, PDF pp. 34-35, Lemmas A.11-A.12.
9 thms1 active userReviewed
Bandit AlgorithmsOperations ResearchProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

Online Network Revenue Management Using Thompson Sampling: Bayesian Regret of TS-fixedResearch Paper

Motivation

A retailer who sells several products from shared, non-replenishable inventory over a finite season must set prices without knowing how demand responds to them. Every price posted is both a sale and an experiment. This is the network revenue management problem with demand learning, and it sits between two literatures: dynamic pricing with inventory, where demand is known and the fluid linear program of Gallego and van Ryzin (1997) is the standard benchmark, and multi-armed bandits, where learning is the whole problem but there are no resource constraints.

Ferreira, Simchi-Levi and Wang (Oper. Res. 2018) combine Thompson sampling with a linear-programming step: sample a demand model from the posterior, solve the fluid LP for that model, and randomize prices according to its solution. The same paper extends the scheme to continuous price sets, contextual pricing and bandits with knapsacks.

Timeline of the relevant results:

  • 1997: Gallego and van Ryzin introduce the fluid LP upper bound for network revenue management with known demand.
  • 2012: Besbes and Zeevi give a non-Bayesian network pricing algorithm with worst-case regret O(K5/3T2/3log⁡T)O(K^{5/3}T^{2/3}\sqrt{\log T})O(K5/3T2/3logT​).
  • 2013: Badanidiyuru, Kleinberg and Slivkins (bandits with knapsacks) give worst-case regret O(KTlog⁡T)O(\sqrt{KT\log T})O(KTlogT​).
  • 2013–2014: Bubeck and Liu and Russo and Van Roy give prior-free Bayesian regret bounds for Thompson sampling in unconstrained bandits.
  • 2018: Ferreira, Simchi-Levi and Wang prove the O(TKlog⁡K)O(\sqrt{TK\log K})O(TKlogK​) Bayesian regret bound for TS-fixed (Theorem 1), the target of this mission.

Setting

There are NNN products and MMM resources. One unit of product iii consumes aij≥0a_{ij}\ge0aij​≥0 units of resource jjj, and resource jjj starts with inventory Ij≥0I_j\ge0Ij​≥0 that is never replenished. The season has TTT periods. In each period the retailer posts one of KKK price vectors pk=(p1k,…,pNk)p_k=(p_{1k},\dots,p_{Nk})pk​=(p1k​,…,pNk​) or a shut-off price p∞p_\inftyp∞​ under which demand is zero.

Given the posted price pkp_kpk​, the demand vector D(t)∈R+ND(t)\in\mathbb R^N_+D(t)∈R+N​ has law F(⋅ ;pk,θ)F(\cdot\,;p_k,\theta)F(⋅;pk​,θ), where θ∈Θ\theta\in\Thetaθ∈Θ is unknown and drawn from a known, arbitrary prior μ0\mu_0μ0​. Demand is independent of the past given the posted price and θ\thetaθ, and is bounded: Di(t)∈[0,dˉi]D_i(t)\in[0,\bar d_i]Di​(t)∈[0,dˉi​]. Write dik(ρ)d_{ik}(\rho)dik​(ρ) for the mean demand of product iii under pkp_kpk​ and parameter ρ\rhoρ, and d=d(θ)d=d(\theta)d=d(θ).

When inventory covers all demand, all demand is sold. Otherwise the satisfied demand D~(t)\tilde D(t)D~(t) satisfies 0≤D~i(t)≤Di(t)0\le\tilde D_i(t)\le D_i(t)0≤D~i​(t)≤Di​(t), leaves every inventory nonnegative, and leaves at least one resource at zero; no other rule is imposed. Revenue is Rev(T)=∑t∑iD~i(t)Pi(t)\mathrm{Rev}(T)=\sum_t\sum_i\tilde D_i(t)P_i(t)Rev(T)=∑t​∑i​D~i​(t)Pi​(t).

For a mean-demand matrix ddd and capacities cj=Ij/Tc_j=I_j/Tcj​=Ij​/T, the linear program LP(d)\mathrm{LP}(d)LP(d) is

max⁡x≥0 ∑k=1K(∑i=1Npikdik)xks.t.∑k=1K(∑i=1Naijdik)xk≤cj  ∀j,∑k=1Kxk≤1,\max_{x\ge0}\ \sum_{k=1}^K\Bigl(\sum_{i=1}^N p_{ik}d_{ik}\Bigr)x_k\quad\text{s.t.}\quad\sum_{k=1}^K\Bigl(\sum_{i=1}^N a_{ij}d_{ik}\Bigr)x_k\le c_j\ \ \forall j,\qquad\sum_{k=1}^K x_k\le1,x≥0max​ k=1∑K​(i=1∑N​pik​dik​)xk​s.t.k=1∑K​(i=1∑N​aij​dik​)xk​≤cj​  ∀j,k=1∑K​xk​≤1,

with optimal value OPT(d)\mathrm{OPT}(d)OPT(d).

TS-fixed (Algorithm 1): in each period, sample θ(t)\theta(t)θ(t) from the posterior of θ\thetaθ given the history of posted prices and observed demands; let x(t)x(t)x(t) be an optimal solution of LP(d(θ(t)))\mathrm{LP}(d(\theta(t)))LP(d(θ(t))); post pkp_kpk​ with probability xk(t)x_k(t)xk​(t) and p∞p_\inftyp∞​ with the remaining probability; observe demand and update the posterior.

Finally pmax⁡=max⁡k∑ipikdˉip_{\max}=\max_k\sum_ip_{ik}\bar d_ipmax​=maxk​∑i​pik​dˉi​ and pmax⁡j=max⁡i:aij≠0, kpik/aijp^j_{\max}=\max_{i:a_{ij}\neq0,\,k}p_{ik}/a_{ij}pmaxj​=maxi:aij​=0,k​pik​/aij​.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 1 against the LP benchmark

For K≥2K\ge2K≥2, T≥1T\ge1T≥1, every prior, every bounded demand family, every admissible fulfilment rule and every run of TS-fixed,

E[OPT(d)]⋅T−E[Rev(T)] ≤ (18 pmax⁡+37∑i=1N∑j=1Mpmax⁡jaijdˉi)TKlog⁡K.\mathbb E\bigl[\mathrm{OPT}(d)\bigr]\cdot T-\mathbb E\bigl[\mathrm{Rev}(T)\bigr]\ \le\ \Bigl(18\,p_{\max}+37\sum_{i=1}^N\sum_{j=1}^M p^j_{\max}a_{ij}\bar d_i\Bigr)\sqrt{TK\log K}.E[OPT(d)]⋅T−E[Rev(T)] ≤ (18pmax​+37i=1∑N​j=1∑M​pmaxj​aij​dˉi​)TKlogK​.

The paper prints this bound for BayesRegret(T)=E[Rev∗(T)]−E[Rev(T)]\mathrm{BayesRegret}(T)=\mathbb E[\mathrm{Rev}^*(T)]-\mathbb E[\mathrm{Rev}(T)]BayesRegret(T)=E[Rev∗(T)]−E[Rev(T)], where Rev∗\mathrm{Rev}^*Rev∗ is the revenue of the optimal policy that knows θ\thetaθ; see Formalization scope for why the LP benchmark is stated instead.

Milestones

The article states Theorem 1 and says that its proof is in the online appendix (Supplemental Material at the DOI). The article itself contains no numbered lemma. The milestone list is therefore empty; the appendix's lemmas will be added as milestones once the appendix is held.

Significance

The bound is prior-free and has explicit constants that depend only on prices, consumption rates and demand bounds. Its dependence on TTT matches the Ω(KT)\Omega(\sqrt{KT})Ω(KT​) lower bound for Bayesian regret in unconstrained bandits with rewards in [0,1][0,1][0,1], a special case of the model with no inventory constraints (Bubeck and Cesa-Bianchi 2012, Theorem 3.5). It shows that the posterior-sampling principle survives the addition of resource constraints, lost sales and randomized LP-based pricing, and it is the template for the paper's later results (TS-update, contextual pricing, bandits with knapsacks).

The theorem is proved on paper but, as far as a platform search shows, not formalized anywhere. The platform has a formal proof of the unconstrained Bayesian Thompson sampling bound knlog⁡k/2\sqrt{kn\log k/2}knlogk/2​ (BanditAlgorithm.thompson_sampling_bayesian_regret, Lattimore–Szepesvári Theorem 36.5) and an open single-product deterministic upper bound in revenue management (RevenueManagement.deterministic_upper_bound). Neither has inventory, an LP subroutine, or lost sales. A formal proof here would supply the first machine-checked analysis of Thompson sampling under resource constraints and would check the paper's constants.

Difficulty

In an unconstrained bandit, Thompson sampling's regret reduces to a sum of per-period gaps between an upper confidence bound and the sampled reward, because the sampled optimal arm and the true optimal arm are identically distributed given the history. Here the action is a randomized mixture x(t)x(t)x(t) from an LP, the reward is not additive in the prices chosen, and revenue is lost when inventory runs out. Two quantities must be controlled: the revenue the algorithm would collect if all demand could be served, and the revenue lost to stock-outs. The second depends on the random time at which each resource is exhausted under a pricing rule that was optimized for a sampled, not the true, demand, and on an arbitrary fulfilment rule once some resource is empty. Standard bandit arguments do not bound such lost sales, which are a nonlinear function of the whole trajectory.

Formalization scope

Lean representation. Products, resources and price vectors are indexed by Fin N, Fin M, Fin K; the posted price is an Option (Fin K) with none the shut-off price. Periods are 0-based (t=0,…,T−1t=0,\dots,T-1t=0,…,T−1 stands for the paper's 1,…,T1,\dots,T1,…,T). Θ\ThetaΘ is a standard Borel space with a probability measure μ0\mu_0μ0​; demand is a Markov kernel FFF from Θ×\Theta\timesΘ×Fin K to RN\mathbb R^NRN, bounded in [0,dˉi][0,\bar d_i][0,dˉi​] for every parameter. A run of TS-fixed is a family of random variables on a probability space satisfying, almost surely and via conditional expectations: θ∼μ0\theta\sim\mu_0θ∼μ0​; the posterior-sampling property of θ(t)\theta(t)θ(t) given everything before period ttt; the price draw with probabilities x(θ(t))x(\theta(t))x(θ(t)) for a measurable optimal LP selection xxx; the demand law given the past, θ(t)\theta(t)θ(t) and the posted price; and fulfilment rules (a)/(b). The logarithm is natural. Prices, consumption and inventory are nonnegative (implicit in the paper). OPT(d)\mathrm{OPT}(d)OPT(d) is a supremum over a nonempty bounded feasible set, so it has no junk value.

Corrections to the printed statement.

  1. K≥2K\ge2K≥2 is added. At K=1K=1K=1 the printed right-hand side is 000, yet on a one-price instance with Bernoulli(0.8)(0.8)(0.8) demand, I=T/2I=T/2I=T/2 and a point-mass prior, TS-fixed loses about 0.2pT0.2p\sqrt T0.2pT​ in expectation.
  2. The LP benchmark replaces E[Rev∗(T)]\mathbb E[\mathrm{Rev}^*(T)]E[Rev∗(T)]. Section 3.1.1 bounds E[Rev∗(T)∣d]\mathbb E[\mathrm{Rev}^*(T)\mid d]E[Rev∗(T)∣d] by OPT(d)⋅T\mathrm{OPT}(d)\cdot TOPT(d)⋅T, citing Gallego–van Ryzin. Under the paper's fulfilment rule this fails when products use disjoint resources: with two products, I=(T,1)I=(T,1)I=(T,1), p1=(1,0)p_1=(1,0)p1​=(1,0), p2=(1/2,0)p_2=(1/2,0)p2​=(1/2,0) and deterministic demand (1,1)(1,1)(1,1), the known-θ\thetaθ policy earns at least TTT while OPT(d)⋅T=1\mathrm{OPT}(d)\cdot T=1OPT(d)⋅T=1. The paper states that its proof bounds the gap to "the LP benchmark defined in Section 3.1.1" (p. 1594), and the last display of Section 3.1.1 bounds BayesRegret(T)\mathrm{BayesRegret}(T)BayesRegret(T) by exactly E[OPT(d)]⋅T−E[Rev(T)]\mathbb E[\mathrm{OPT}(d)]\cdot T-\mathbb E[\mathrm{Rev}(T)]E[OPT(d)]⋅T−E[Rev(T)]. Wherever the Gallego–van Ryzin bound holds, the corrected goal implies the printed one.

Ruled out. A bound for the "ideal" revenue ∑iDi(t)Pi(t)\sum_iD_i(t)P_i(t)∑i​Di​(t)Pi​(t) instead of the satisfied revenue, or for an arbitrary policy whose prices are merely close to the LP solution, is not Theorem 1; the goal carries the full TS-fixed run and the lost-sales accounting.

Infrastructure needed. Posterior-sampling identities for general (standard Borel) priors, a Hoeffding/Azuma-type concentration for bounded demand along the price-selection process, LP sensitivity with respect to the mean-demand matrix, and a pathwise bound on lost sales under an arbitrary fulfilment rule. The LP and fluid-benchmark definitions are reusable for later missions on TS-update (Theorem 2), contextual pricing (Theorem 4) and bandits with knapsacks (Theorem 5). Contributions welcome: proofs of the goal, and formal statements of the online appendix's lemmas.

Selected references

  • K. J. Ferreira, D. Simchi-Levi, H. Wang, Online Network Revenue Management Using Thompson Sampling, Operations Research 66(6):1586–1602, 2018. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.2018.1755
  • G. Gallego, G. van Ryzin, A Multiproduct Dynamic Pricing Problem and Its Applications to Network Yield Management, Operations Research 45(1):24–41, 1997. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.45.1.24
  • O. Besbes, A. Zeevi, Blind Network Revenue Management, Operations Research 60(6):1537–1550, 2012. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.1120.1057
  • A. Badanidiyuru, R. Kleinberg, A. Slivkins, Bandits with Knapsacks, FOCS 2013. https://arxiv.org/abs/1305.2545
  • S. Bubeck, C.-Y. Liu, Prior-free and Prior-dependent Regret Bounds for Thompson Sampling, NeurIPS 2013. https://arxiv.org/abs/1311.0466
  • D. Russo, B. Van Roy, Learning to Optimize via Posterior Sampling, Mathematics of Operations Research 39(4):1221–1243, 2014. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.2014.0650
  • S. Bubeck, N. Cesa-Bianchi, Regret Analysis of Stochastic and Nonstochastic Multi-armed Bandit Problems, Foundations and Trends in Machine Learning 5(1), 2012. https://arxiv.org/abs/1204.5721
  • T. Lattimore, C. Szepesvári, Bandit Algorithms, Cambridge University Press, 2020, Chapter 36. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781108571401
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Analysis·Captain: Minghui

Sharp Minima Can Generalize: ReLU Rescaling and Hessian SharpnessResearch Paper

Why the geometry of a minimum needs a parameter convention

A trained neural network is used through its predictions, while its parameters are the coordinates in which training takes place. Distinct parameter vectors can describe exactly the same prediction function. A proposed explanation of generalization based on the shape of the parameter-space loss therefore needs to account for these equivalences. This mission concerns Hessian sharpness: the spectral norm of the matrix of second derivatives of the loss at a minimum. The question is whether that number is intrinsic to the predictor or can change without changing any prediction.

Dinh, Pascanu, Bengio, and Bengio establish that, for a one-hidden-layer rectified network, every sufficiently differentiable critical minimum with nonzero Hessian has equivalent parameterizations of arbitrarily large Hessian sharpness. The formalization target is their Section 4.2, Theorem 4, PDF pp. 5–6. The goal theorem and both supporting milestones now have accepted Lean proofs on Prove2Me. This public research-paper mission is complete.

The immediate historical sequence is:

  • 2016–2017: Keskar and collaborators reported numerical evidence relating large-batch training, sharp minima, and a generalization gap. This is empirical context, not an assumption or a theorem to be proved in this mission. ICLR 2017 paper.
  • March 2017: Dinh and collaborators released a mathematical analysis of parameter symmetries and several flatness measures. The fixed source for this mission is their May 2017 revision, arXiv version 2, which determines the theorem numbering and PDF page citations. Version history.

Networks, losses, and reciprocal layer scaling

Fix positive integers ddd and hhh, the input dimension and hidden width. Let W∈Rd×hW\in\mathbb R^{d\times h}W∈Rd×h and v∈Rhv\in\mathbb R^hv∈Rh be the network's weights. For an input x∈Rdx\in\mathbb R^dx∈Rd, define

fW,v(x)=∑j=1hmax⁡ ⁣(∑i=1dxiWij,0)vj.f_{W,v}(x)=\sum_{j=1}^h \max\!\left(\sum_{i=1}^d x_iW_{ij},0\right)v_j.fW,v​(x)=j=1∑h​max(i=1∑d​xi​Wij​,0)vj​.

This is a bias-free network with one hidden layer, rectified activation, and a scalar linear output. Its parameter vector θ=(W,v)\theta=(W,v)θ=(W,v) has n=dh+hn=dh+hn=dh+h coordinates and the Euclidean norm. A function-based loss is a real-valued functional ℓ\ellℓ of the entire prediction function, giving L(θ)=ℓ(fθ)L(\theta)=\ell(f_\theta)L(θ)=ℓ(fθ​). The Hessian targets assume LLL is continuous. These conventions come from Sections 2–3, PDF pp. 2–4, Definition 3.

Two parameters are observationally equivalent if their predictions agree on every input. For a positive real number α\alphaα, the layer scaling is

Tα(W,v)=(αW,α−1v).T_\alpha(W,v)=(\alpha W,\alpha^{-1}v).Tα​(W,v)=(αW,α−1v).

The definition rescales the incoming and outgoing weights in opposite ways. It is the transformation in Section 3, Definition 5, PDF p. 4.

Write DL(θ)DL(\theta)DL(θ) for the first Fréchet derivative and HL(θ)=D(DL)(θ)H_L(\theta)=D(DL)(\theta)HL​(θ)=D(DL)(θ) for the second derivative. The local differentiability condition requires LLL to be differentiable throughout a neighborhood of θ\thetaθ, with DLDLDL differentiable at θ\thetaθ. This states the regularity needed for the paper's Hessian notation explicitly, without requiring global smoothness or continuous second derivatives. A critical local minimum satisfies DL(θ)=0DL(\theta)=0DL(θ)=0 and has no smaller loss in some neighborhood; it may belong to a continuum of minima.

Symmetry, derivative transformation, and the goal theorem

The first milestone formalizes the scaling consequence of positive ReLU homogeneity in Theorem 1 and Definition 5, PDF p. 4:

fTαθ=fθ,L(Tαθ)=L(θ),f_{T_\alpha\theta}=f_\theta,\qquad L(T_\alpha\theta)=L(\theta),fTα​θ​=fθ​,L(Tα​θ)=L(θ),

and TαθT_\alpha\thetaTα​θ is a local minimum precisely when θ\thetaθ is. These statements hold for every parameter and every α>0\alpha>0α>0; the milestone itself requires no loss regularity.

The second milestone is Theorem 3, Section 4.2, PDF p. 5. At every point satisfying the stated local differentiability condition,

DL(Tαθ)[u]=DL(θ)[Tα−1u],DL(T_\alpha\theta)[u]=DL(\theta)[T_{\alpha^{-1}}u],DL(Tα​θ)[u]=DL(θ)[Tα−1​u], HL(Tαθ)[u,w]=HL(θ)[Tα−1u,Tα−1w]H_L(T_\alpha\theta)[u,w] =H_L(\theta)[T_{\alpha^{-1}}u,T_{\alpha^{-1}}w]HL​(Tα​θ)[u,w]=HL​(θ)[Tα−1​u,Tα−1​w]

for all parameter directions u,wu,wu,w. The same regularity holds at the rescaled point. This is the coordinate-free form of the paper's gradient formula and Hessian congruence with Dα=diag⁡(α−1Idh,αIh)D_\alpha=\operatorname{diag}(\alpha^{-1}I_{dh},\alpha I_h)Dα​=diag(α−1Idh​,αIh​).

The goal is Theorem 4. If θ\thetaθ is a critical local minimum with the stated differentiability and HL(θ)≠0H_L(\theta)\ne0HL​(θ)=0, then

∀M>0 ∃α>0:∥HL(Tαθ)∥2≥M.\forall M>0\ \exists\alpha>0:\qquad \|H_L(T_\alpha\theta)\|_2\ge M.∀M>0 ∃α>0:∥HL​(Tα​θ)∥2​≥M.

For that same rescaling, predictions and loss agree with the original ones, and the transformed parameter remains a critical local minimum with the required differentiability. The subscript 222 denotes the Euclidean spectral norm. The source statement and its interpretation are in Section 4.2, PDF pp. 5–6. The relevant displays in all three targets are unnumbered.

What the formalization establishes

The result separates prediction behavior from this particular numerical measure of parameter-space curvature. Pointwise identical predictors have identical function-based evaluation losses wherever those are defined, even though their Hessian sharpness can be made arbitrarily large under the stated conditions. This is the scope of the obstruction: it concerns the unnormalized Euclidean Hessian norm and this rescaling symmetry. It does not assert that training reaches every point on a scaling orbit or supply a numerical bound on test error. Theorem 4 and following discussion, PDF p. 6.

The completed Lean development connects an explicitly computed ReLU prediction function to its actual first and second derivatives. It provides reusable results about invariant losses, transport of local minima, and curvature under linear changes of parameters. All three published theorem statements were proved unchanged and accepted on 26 September 2026. Both milestones are complete, and the goal has no remaining open leaves.

The analytic obligations

ReLU is not differentiable at every activation boundary. The loss-level local regularity must therefore be retained rather than inferred from the network's syntax. A nonzero symmetric matrix alone is also insufficient for the sharpness claim: local minimality supplies an additional sign constraint. Finally, the second derivative is an operator on the entire parameter space; bounds for a single arbitrarily chosen scalar model do not establish the quantified network result. These are obligations of the formal proof, not hypotheses assuming the desired transformation identities.

Formalization note: scope and conventions

Parameters are represented by EuclideanSpace over the disjoint union of first-layer matrix coordinates and output-weight coordinates. This retains the sum-of-squares geometry rather than a product maximum norm. The Hessian is the derivative of the actual Fréchet derivative, represented as a continuous bilinear form. Its operator norm is the spectral norm under the Euclidean/Riesz identification. The regularity condition excludes reliance on default derivative values at nondifferentiable points.

The statement covers every positive input dimension and hidden width, arbitrary function-based losses with the specified regularity, and arbitrary qualifying minima. It imposes no separate nonzero-weight or active-neuron assumption. An input or output weight block may vanish when the loss hypotheses still hold. The nonzero-Hessian requirement is essential. Scaling by zero or a negative number is outside the claim. No probability model, random initialization, sampling measure, or training algorithm is assumed.

The mission focuses on the single-hidden-layer Hessian result. Volume flatness, the multiple-eigenvalue deep-network theorem, and other reparameterizations remain separate results in the paper. The local environment is Lean 4.30.0 with supported Mathlib revision c5ea00351c28e24afc9f0f84379aa41082b1188f.

Selected references

  • Laurent Dinh, Razvan Pascanu, Samy Bengio, Yoshua Bengio. Sharp Minima Can Generalize For Deep Nets. ICML 2017, PMLR 70:1019–1028. arXiv:1703.04933v2. Primary anchors: Section 2, PDF p. 2; Section 3, PDF pp. 3–4, Definitions 3–5 and Theorem 1; Section 4.2, PDF pp. 5–6, Theorems 3–4.
  • Nitish Shirish Keskar, Dheevatsa Mudigere, Jorge Nocedal, Mikhail Smelyanskiy, Ping Tak Peter Tang. On Large-Batch Training for Deep Learning: Generalization Gap and Sharp Minima. ICLR 2017. arXiv:1609.04836v2. Historical context.
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Probability·Captain: Minghui

Neural Tangent Kernel: The Infinite-Width Initialization LimitResearch Paper

Why an initialization kernel matters

A neural network is nonlinear in its parameters, but a small change in those parameters changes its predictions through a Jacobian. The neural tangent kernel is the Gram kernel of that Jacobian: it records which changes in predictions can be produced by common parameter updates. An initialization limit identifies a deterministic object behind this random kernel. It supplies a mathematical starting point for studying wide networks through kernel methods, before addressing the additional question of how the kernel changes during training. Jacot, Gabriel, and Hongler establish this initialization limit in Section 4.1, Theorem 1, PDF p. 5.

The requested result is already a theorem of the paper. The open work here is its formal proof in Lean, including the probability model and the order of limits. The mission is classified as OpenProblem at the request of its proposer; that label does not assert that the underlying mathematical result remains an unsolved research question.

The source appeared in 2018 and was published at NeurIPS 2018; this formalization fixes arXiv version 4, dated February 10, 2020, so that page references and conventions remain stable. Its Appendix A explicitly distinguishes the sequential limit proved there from a possible stronger simultaneous-width limit.

Networks, randomness, and the two kernels

Fix positive integers ddd and qqq, the input and output dimensions, a hidden-layer count h≥0h\ge0h≥0, a bias scale β>0\beta>0β>0, and a Lipschitz function σ:R→R\sigma:\mathbb R\to\mathbb Rσ:R→R. Write L=h+1L=h+1L=h+1 for the number of affine layers, with n0=dn_0=dn0​=d, nL=qn_L=qnL​=q, and positive hidden widths n1,…,nhn_1,\ldots,n_hn1​,…,nh​. The parameters are all entries of the weight matrices and bias vectors. Every parameter is sampled independently from N(0,1)\mathcal N(0,1)N(0,1).

For an input xxx, let a(0)(x)=xa^{(0)}(x)=xa(0)(x)=x and define

zj(ℓ+1)(x)=1nℓ∑iWji(ℓ)ai(ℓ)(x)+βbj(ℓ).z^{(\ell+1)}_j(x)=\frac1{\sqrt{n_\ell}} \sum_i W^{(\ell)}_{ji}a^{(\ell)}_i(x)+\beta b^{(\ell)}_j.zj(ℓ+1)​(x)=nℓ​​1​i∑​Wji(ℓ)​ai(ℓ)​(x)+βbj(ℓ)​.

At each hidden layer, a(ℓ)=σ(z(ℓ))a^{(\ell)}=\sigma(z^{(\ell)})a(ℓ)=σ(z(ℓ)) coordinatewise. The output is fθ(x)=z(L)(x)f_\theta(x)=z^{(L)}(x)fθ​(x)=z(L)(x), with no final activation. These are the conventions of Section 2, PDF pp. 2–3. Matrix storage order in Lean uses destination then source; the displayed operation is unchanged.

For output coordinates k,k′k,k'k,k′, set

Θkk′(L)(θ;x,y)=∑p∂θpfθ,k(x) ∂θpfθ,k′(y).\Theta^{(L)}_{kk'}(\theta;x,y)=\sum_p \partial_{\theta_p}f_{\theta,k}(x)\, \partial_{\theta_p}f_{\theta,k'}(y).Θkk′(L)​(θ;x,y)=p∑​∂θp​​fθ,k​(x)∂θp​​fθ,k′​(y).

The sum includes every weight and every bias, as in Section 4, PDF p. 5.

The covariance kernel starts with

Σ(1)(x,y)=⟨x,y⟩d+β2.\Sigma^{(1)}(x,y)=\frac{\langle x,y\rangle}{d}+\beta^2.Σ(1)(x,y)=d⟨x,y⟩​+β2.

Given a centered Gaussian pair (U,V)(U,V)(U,V) with covariance matrix obtained by evaluating Σ(ℓ)\Sigma^{(\ell)}Σ(ℓ) on (x,y)(x,y)(x,y), define

Σ(ℓ+1)(x,y)=E[σ(U)σ(V)]+β2,Σ˙(ℓ+1)(x,y)=E[σ′(U)σ′(V)].\Sigma^{(\ell+1)}(x,y)=\mathbb E[\sigma(U)\sigma(V)]+\beta^2, \qquad \dot\Sigma^{(\ell+1)}(x,y)=\mathbb E[\sigma'(U)\sigma'(V)].Σ(ℓ+1)(x,y)=E[σ(U)σ(V)]+β2,Σ˙(ℓ+1)(x,y)=E[σ′(U)σ′(V)].

The deterministic limiting NTK is

Θ∞(1)=Σ(1),Θ∞(ℓ+1)(x,y)=Θ∞(ℓ)(x,y)Σ˙(ℓ+1)(x,y)+Σ(ℓ+1)(x,y).\Theta_\infty^{(1)}=\Sigma^{(1)},\qquad \Theta_\infty^{(\ell+1)}(x,y)=\Theta_\infty^{(\ell)}(x,y) \dot\Sigma^{(\ell+1)}(x,y)+\Sigma^{(\ell+1)}(x,y).Θ∞(1)​=Σ(1),Θ∞(ℓ+1)​(x,y)=Θ∞(ℓ)​(x,y)Σ˙(ℓ+1)(x,y)+Σ(ℓ+1)(x,y).

These recurrences appear in Section 4.1, Proposition 1 and Theorem 1, PDF p. 5; their displays are unnumbered.

Formalization targets

The goal is Theorem 1, on every fixed finite family X=(x1,…,xN)X=(x_1,\ldots,x_N)X=(x1​,…,xN​) of inputs and for every ε>0\varepsilon>0ε>0:

Pr⁡ ⁣(∃i,j,k,k′:∣Θkk′(L)(θ;xi,xj)−Θ∞(L)(xi,xj)δkk′∣>ε)⟶0.\Pr\!\left(\exists i,j,k,k': \left|\Theta^{(L)}_{kk'}(\theta;x_i,x_j) -\Theta_\infty^{(L)}(x_i,x_j)\delta_{kk'}\right|>\varepsilon\right) \longrightarrow0.Pr(∃i,j,k,k′:​Θkk′(L)​(θ;xi​,xj​)−Θ∞(L)​(xi​,xj​)δkk′​​>ε)⟶0.

Here δkk′\delta_{kk'}δkk′​ is one when the output coordinates coincide and zero otherwise. The limit takes n1→∞n_1\to\inftyn1​→∞ first, then n2→∞n_2\to\inftyn2​→∞, through nh→∞n_h\to\inftynh​→∞, precisely as specified in Appendix A, PDF p. 11, and Appendix A.1, PDF pp. 12–13.

Two supporting milestones expose the required mathematical content. First, the recursively defined Σ(L)\Sigma^{(L)}Σ(L) has positive semidefinite Gram matrices on every finite input family and satisfies Σ(L)(x,x)≥β2\Sigma^{(L)}(x,x)\ge\beta^2Σ(L)(x,x)≥β2. This is a paper-derived well-definedness obligation for the covariance in Proposition 1. Second, Proposition 1 asserts joint convergence in distribution of (fθ,k(xi))i,k(f_{\theta,k}(x_i))_{i,k}(fθ,k​(xi​))i,k​ to the centered Gaussian vector with covariance Σ(L)(xi,xj)δkk′\Sigma^{(L)}(x_i,x_j)\delta_{kk'}Σ(L)(xi​,xj​)δkk′​. This expresses the paper's independent output Gaussian processes through all their finite-dimensional distributions.

What completing the mission would establish

The result connects an explicitly parameterized random finite network to a deterministic kernel computed from its activation and depth. All output correlations, bias contributions, and layer normalizations remain visible in that connection. It would provide a checked foundation on which a separate training-stability development could build.

The formal contribution is the passage from finite random Jacobians to the limiting kernel. It does not assume that the empirical NTK already equals its limit. Nor does the goal claim convergence of a training trajectory, positive definiteness on a sphere, an early-stopping guarantee, or a generalization bound; those are separate results and questions in the source.

Where the mathematical work lies

The parameter space changes with the widths. Outputs, hidden activations, and their parameter derivatives are dependent random quantities, so the limit of their products requires more than a scalar law of large numbers. The weak Gaussian limit alone also does not justify substituting an arbitrary discontinuous derivative into expectations. The Lipschitz-only hypothesis is part of the target and must be retained, including for nonsmooth activations. Remark 3, PDF p. 5 identifies almost-everywhere differentiation as the relevant convention.

Formalization scope and conventions

Lean represents parameter coordinates by a finite dependent index carrying a layer, destination neuron, and optional source neuron; the missing source denotes a bias. Initialization is the finite product of Mathlib's standard Gaussian measures. Network outputs are obtained by the displayed recursion, and NTK entries use actual Fréchet derivatives in coordinate directions. Mathlib's derivative is zero where differentiation fails; the proof must establish that the exceptional parameters are null under the stated initialization law.

Centered Gaussian laws use Mathlib's multivariateGaussian, including singular covariance. The covariance-validity milestone must justify its covariance interpretation. No invertibility, distinct-input, smooth-activation, or positive-definite-kernel assumption is added. Positive actual hidden widths are indexed as wi+1w_i+1wi​+1 for wi∈Nw_i\in\mathbb Nwi​∈N, a cofinal reindexing. Depth one, constant activations, repeated or zero inputs, and empty finite families are included. The empty family is harmless because the same theorem quantifies over every nonempty family as well.

The sequential filter puts the last hidden width outermost. For two hidden widths, a probability tolerance is met by first choosing a threshold for n2n_2n2​, then a threshold for n1n_1n1​ that may depend on n2n_2n2​. There is no uniform limit over the entire input space and no simultaneous-width assertion. The development uses Lean 4.30.0 and supported Mathlib revision c5ea00351c28e24afc9f0f84379aa41082b1188f. The model and statements are locally checked; the three theorem proofs remain open. Contributions to Gaussian covariance consistency, finite-dimensional distribution limits, almost-everywhere network differentiation, and the NTK limit are in scope.

Selected references

  • Arthur Jacot, Franck Gabriel, and Clément Hongler, Neural Tangent Kernel: Convergence and Generalization in Neural Networks, Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 31, 2018. arXiv:1806.07572v4. Primary anchors: Section 2, PDF pp. 2–3; Section 4.1, PDF p. 5, Proposition 1, Theorem 1, Remarks 2–3; Appendix A and A.1, PDF pp. 11–13. Relevant displays have no equation numbers.
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OptimizationProbability·Captain: Minghui

Optimization Methods for Large-Scale Machine Learning: Stochastic Gradient ConvergenceResearch Paper

Why stochastic-gradient convergence matters

Training a machine-learning model often means choosing a vector of parameters to minimize an average loss. Evaluating the full gradient can require processing an entire dataset. A stochastic-gradient method instead updates the parameters using a random direction obtained from a smaller amount of information. Its computational appeal raises a mathematical question: which assumptions on those directions and the stepsizes guarantee progress, and what kind of convergence follows?

This mission formalizes the core convergence theory in Section 4 of Bottou, Curtis, and Nocedal, Optimization Methods for Large-Scale Machine Learning. The results distinguish strongly convex objectives, where expected objective error can be controlled, from general smooth objectives, where the guarantee concerns gradients. They also distinguish constant stepsizes, which leave a noise-dependent error bound, from diminishing stepsizes.

Historical timeline

  • 1951: Robbins and Monro introduced stochastic approximation for finding a root using noisy observations. Their work is the historical foundation for the stepsize conditions used here; the original root-finding theorem is not a separate target of this mission. Original paper.
  • 2016: Bottou, Curtis, and Nocedal released the first version of their survey, organizing stochastic-gradient theory around smoothness and moment assumptions. arXiv record.
  • 2018: The revised survey appeared in SIAM Review. This mission fixes arXiv version 3 for stable theorem numbering and PDF page citations. Published article.

The mathematics targeted here is already proved in the literature; the task is its Lean formalization, not a claim that these convergence results are unresolved research conjectures.

Objective, algorithm, and probability model

Let F:Rd→RF:\mathbb R^d\to\mathbb RF:Rd→R be differentiable with an LLL-Lipschitz gradient, where L>0L>0L>0. On a probability space (Ω,A,P)(\Omega,\mathcal A,\mathbb P)(Ω,A,P), let Hk\mathcal H_kHk​ contain the history before step kkk. Starting from a deterministic vector w0w_0w0​, the algorithm uses positive deterministic stepsizes αk\alpha_kαk​ and random directions gkg_kgk​ to update

wk+1=wk−αkgk.w_{k+1}=w_k-\alpha_k g_k.wk+1​=wk​−αk​gk​.

The state wkw_kwk​ is measurable with respect to Hk\mathcal H_kHk​; the direction gkg_kgk​ is measurable with respect to Hk+1\mathcal H_{k+1}Hk+1​ and has a finite second moment. Conditional assertions hold almost surely. This uses the adapted-process formulation expressly permitted in footnote 4, PDF p. 22, rather than requiring independent sample seeds. The local index k=0k=0k=0 corresponds to the paper's k=1k=1k=1. Algorithm 4.1 and footnote 4.

Write Ek\mathbb E_kEk​ for conditioning on Hk\mathcal H_kHk​. The moment conditions use constants μG≥μ>0\mu_G\ge\mu>0μG​≥μ>0 and M,MV≥0M,M_V\ge0M,MV​≥0:

⟨∇F(wk),Ekgk⟩≥μ∥∇F(wk)∥2,∥Ekgk∥≤μG∥∇F(wk)∥,\langle\nabla F(w_k),\mathbb E_k g_k\rangle\ge\mu\|\nabla F(w_k)\|^2, \qquad \|\mathbb E_k g_k\|\le\mu_G\|\nabla F(w_k)\|,⟨∇F(wk​),Ek​gk​⟩≥μ∥∇F(wk​)∥2,∥Ek​gk​∥≤μG​∥∇F(wk​)∥, Ek∥gk∥2−∥Ekgk∥2≤M+MV∥∇F(wk)∥2.\mathbb E_k\|g_k\|^2-\|\mathbb E_k g_k\|^2 \le M+M_V\|\nabla F(w_k)\|^2.Ek​∥gk​∥2−∥Ek​gk​∥2≤M+MV​∥∇F(wk​)∥2.

Define MG=MV+μG2M_G=M_V+\mu_G^2MG​=MV​+μG2​. The iterates lie almost surely in an open region on which F≥Finf⁡F\ge F_{\inf}F≥Finf​ for a real lower bound Finf⁡F_{\inf}Finf​. These are Assumptions 4.1 and 4.3, PDF pp. 23–24, equations (4.6)–(4.9). Source.

Formalization targets

The goal is Theorem 4.10, Section 4.3, PDF p. 33, equations (4.30a)–(4.30b). Suppose

∑k=0∞αk=∞,∑k=0∞αk2<∞.\sum_{k=0}^\infty\alpha_k=\infty,\qquad \sum_{k=0}^\infty\alpha_k^2<\infty.k=0∑∞​αk​=∞,k=0∑∞​αk2​<∞.

For AK=∑k=0K−1αkA_K=\sum_{k=0}^{K-1}\alpha_kAK​=∑k=0K−1​αk​, establish both

∃S∈R:E ⁣[∑k=0K−1αk∥∇F(wk)∥2]⟶S,\exists S\in\mathbb R:\quad \mathbb E\!\left[\sum_{k=0}^{K-1}\alpha_k\|\nabla F(w_k)\|^2\right]\longrightarrow S,∃S∈R:E[k=0∑K−1​αk​∥∇F(wk​)∥2]⟶S, 1AKE ⁣[∑k=0K−1αk∥∇F(wk)∥2]⟶0.\frac{1}{A_K}\mathbb E\!\left[\sum_{k=0}^{K-1}\alpha_k\|\nabla F(w_k)\|^2\right] \longrightarrow0.AK​1​E[k=0∑K−1​αk​∥∇F(wk​)∥2]⟶0.

There is no convexity assumption and no restriction that the initial stepsizes already satisfy a small-step bound. Theorem 4.10.

Four milestones capture the surrounding theory. Lemma 4.4 gives the two successive conditional expected-descent inequalities (4.10a)–(4.10b), PDF pp. 24–25. It is a common input to the convergence results. Theorem 4.6 gives a geometric upper bound for strongly convex objectives with a constant stepsize. Theorem 4.7 gives the corresponding O(1/k)O(1/k)O(1/k) bound for αk=β/(γ+k+1)\alpha_k=\beta/(\gamma+k+1)αk​=β/(γ+k+1). These are parallel strongly convex targets, not prerequisites for the nonconvex goal. Theorem 4.8 gives finite-horizon sum and average squared-gradient bounds for general objectives with a constant stepsize. Section 4.

For example, if c>0c>0c>0 is the strong-convexity constant, d≥1d\ge1d≥1, and 0<a≤μ/(LMG)0<a\le\mu/(LM_G)0<a≤μ/(LMG​), Theorem 4.6 states, with B=aLM/(2cμ)B=aLM/(2c\mu)B=aLM/(2cμ) and F∗=inf⁡xF(x)F_*=\inf_xF(x)F∗​=infx​F(x),

E[F(wk)−F∗]≤B+(1−acμ)k(F(w0)−F∗−B).\mathbb E[F(w_k)-F_*]\le B+(1-ac\mu)^k(F(w_0)-F_*-B).E[F(wk​)−F∗​]≤B+(1−acμ)k(F(w0​)−F∗​−B).

The upper bound tends to BBB; this does not assert that the actual expected error tends to BBB. Every milestone retains the paper's constants and all displayed conclusions. Equations (4.13)–(4.14), PDF p. 26.

What a completed formalization provides

The result explains precisely how noise and stepsize interact. The general-objective goal guarantees that the stepsize-weighted expected squared gradients average to zero even when M>0M>0M>0. The strongly convex milestones quantify objective error and the effect of initialization. These results concern the stated quantities; they do not assert convergence of iterates, global optimality for a nonconvex objective, or almost-sure convergence. Sections 4.2–4.3.

A completed development would provide reusable Lean results for smooth objective functions, conditional moment bounds, stochastic updates, and expected convergence. The proposed statements are open proof obligations. Compilation establishes that the definitions and statements are well formed, not that their convergence claims have already been proved.

Mathematical and formal difficulties

Finite conditional expectations must be connected to unconditional integrals without relying on total-function defaults. The infinite-horizon result also requires careful handling of a finite initial segment: square summability gives eventually small steps, not a bound at every step. Strong convexity must justify the objective-gap estimates and the properties of the optimum. Treating a descent recurrence as a hypothesis would omit the analytic content that this mission is intended to formalize.

Formalization scope

The model uses real finite-dimensional Euclidean space, Mathlib gradients, filtrations, Bochner conditional expectations, and ordinary real integrals. The probability space is arbitrary; no finite-support or standard-Borel restriction is imposed. Directions have explicit finite second moments, making the finite-expectation convention in the paper visible. Square integrability of iterates and integrability of losses are consequences to establish, not extra model fields.

Strong convexity uses Mathlib's StrongConvexOn, equivalent here to Assumption 4.5's first-order inequality. The optimum is defined as the infimum of the range of FFF, with its finiteness to be derived in the strongly convex branch. That branch requires d≥1d\ge1d≥1: the paper's deduction c≤Lc\le Lc≤L implicitly uses a nontrivial space. The nonconvex statements allow d=0d=0d=0. Zero noise is allowed. Finite-horizon averages require K>0K>0K>0; the value assigned at K=0K=0K=0 does not affect an asymptotic limit.

Contributions to the conditional-descent infrastructure and any of the four milestones are welcome. Variance reduction, Newton-type methods, and the remainder of the survey are outside this initial mission.

Selected references

  • Léon Bottou, Frank E. Curtis, and Jorge Nocedal. Optimization Methods for Large-Scale Machine Learning. SIAM Review 60(2), 223–311, 2018. arXiv:1606.04838v3; DOI. All page numbers above refer to the 95-page arXiv v3 PDF.
  • Herbert Robbins and Sutton Monro. A Stochastic Approximation Method. Annals of Mathematical Statistics 22(3), 400–407, 1951. DOI. Historical background only.
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OptimizationProbability·Captain: Minghui

SCAFFOLD: Convergence with Client SamplingResearch Paper

Why control variates matter in federated optimization

Federated optimization trains one model using objectives held by many clients. Performing several local updates between communication rounds saves communication, but clients with different objectives can move in different directions. SCAFFOLD maintains a correction for each client to address this disagreement, including when only some clients participate. Karimireddy et al. establish convergence without a bound on how similar the client objectives are. The relevant result is Theorem III, Section 5, PDF p. 5.

SCAFFOLD: Convergence with Client Sampling concerns that known result's formalization. Its exact targets are finite-round bounds from the Appendix E analysis, covering strongly convex, general convex, and nonconvex objectives. The paper's FedAvg results and its separate quadratic-acceleration theorem are outside this scope.

Setting: local updates and sampled clients

There are N≥1N\ge1N≥1 clients, with differentiable objectives fi:Rd→Rf_i:\mathbb R^d\to\mathbb Rfi​:Rd→R. The global objective is f(x)=N−1∑ifi(x)f(x)=N^{-1}\sum_i f_i(x)f(x)=N−1∑i​fi​(x). Every client gradient is β\betaβ-Lipschitz, where β>0\beta>0β>0. A stochastic gradient query is conditionally unbiased and has conditional squared-error expectation at most σ2\sigma^2σ2, with σ≥0\sigma\ge0σ≥0. Current queries on different clients are conditionally independent given the full history. These make precise the fresh-oracle interpretation of A4–A5, Appendix B.1, PDF p. 14.

Each of T≥1T\ge1T≥1 rounds selects a uniform subset ArA_rAr​ of SSS clients, where 1≤S≤N1\le S\le N1≤S≤N. Each selected client takes K≥1K\ge1K≥1 local steps. Let xrx^rxr be the server model, circ_i^rcir​ its stored client control variates, and cr=N−1∑icirc^r=N^{-1}\sum_i c_i^rcr=N−1∑i​cir​. With constant local and global step sizes ηl>0\eta_l>0ηl​>0 and ηg≥1\eta_g\ge1ηg​≥1, a client starts at yi,0r=xry_{i,0}^r=x^ryi,0r​=xr and uses

yi,k+1r=yi,kr−ηl(gi,kr−cir+cr),xr+1=xr+ηgS∑i∈Ar(yi,Kr−xr).y_{i,k+1}^r=y_{i,k}^r-\eta_l\bigl(g_{i,k}^r-c_i^r+c^r\bigr), \qquad x^{r+1}=x^r+\frac{\eta_g}{S}\sum_{i\in A_r}(y_{i,K}^r-x^r).yi,k+1r​=yi,kr​−ηl​(gi,kr​−cir​+cr),xr+1=xr+Sηg​​i∈Ar​∑​(yi,Kr​−xr).

Option II replaces a participating client's control with K−1∑k=0K−1gi,krK^{-1}\sum_{k=0}^{K-1}g_{i,k}^rK−1∑k=0K−1​gi,kr​ and retains every other control. These are Algorithm 1, PDF p. 4, and Appendix E, equations (18)–(21), PDF pp. 25–26. Write h=Kηlηgh=K\eta_l\eta_gh=Kηl​ηg​ for the effective step size.

Formalization targets

Four milestones support a root goal that is the conjunction of the two convergence statements below.

GradientGrowth states, for convex clients and a global minimizer x⋆x^\starx⋆,

1N∑i∥∇fi(x)−∇fi(x⋆)∥2≤2β(f(x)−f(x⋆)).\frac1N\sum_i\|\nabla f_i(x)-\nabla f_i(x^\star)\|^2 \le2\beta\bigl(f(x)-f(x^\star)\bigr).N1​i∑​∥∇fi​(x)−∇fi​(x⋆)∥2≤2β(f(x)−f(x⋆)).

This is Appendix B.1, equation (9), PDF p. 14. PerturbedStrongConvexity states, for each μ\muμ-strongly convex client and μ≥0\mu\ge0μ≥0,

⟨∇fi(x),z−y⟩≥fi(z)−fi(y)+μ4∥y−z∥2−β∥z−x∥2,\langle\nabla f_i(x),z-y\rangle\ge f_i(z)-f_i(y) +\frac\mu4\|y-z\|^2-\beta\|z-x\|^2,⟨∇fi​(x),z−y⟩≥fi​(z)−fi​(y)+4μ​∥y−z∥2−β∥z−x∥2,

as in Appendix C, Lemma 5, PDF p. 17.

ConvexFiniteRoundConvergence allows arbitrary deterministic initial controls ci0c_i^0ci0​. Assume all clients are μ\muμ-strongly convex with μ≥0\mu\ge0μ≥0, including ordinary convexity when μ=0\mu=0μ=0, and fix a minimizer x⋆x^\starx⋆ of fff. Define

C0=1N∑i∥ci0−∇fi(x⋆)∥2,V0=∥x0−x⋆∥2+9Nh2SC0,C_0=\frac1N\sum_i\|c_i^0-\nabla f_i(x^\star)\|^2, \qquad V_0=\|x^0-x^\star\|^2+\frac{9Nh^2}{S}C_0,C0​=N1​i∑​∥ci0​−∇fi​(x⋆)∥2,V0​=∥x0−x⋆∥2+S9Nh2​C0​, q=1−μh2,wr=q−(r+1),WT=∑r=0T−1wr.q=1-\frac{\mu h}{2},\qquad w_r=q^{-(r+1)},\qquad W_T=\sum_{r=0}^{T-1}w_r.q=1−2μh​,wr​=q−(r+1),WT​=r=0∑T−1​wr​.

For h≤1/(81β)h\le1/(81\beta)h≤1/(81β) and μh≤S/(15N)\mu h\le S/(15N)μh≤S/(15N), the target is

1WT∑r=0T−1wr E[f(xr)−f(x⋆)]≤V0hWT+12hσ2KS(1+Sηg2).\frac1{W_T}\sum_{r=0}^{T-1}w_r\, \mathbb E\bigl[f(x^r)-f(x^\star)\bigr] \le\frac{V_0}{hW_T} +\frac{12h\sigma^2}{KS}\left(1+\frac S{\eta_g^2}\right).WT​1​r=0∑T−1​wr​E[f(xr)−f(x⋆)]≤hWT​V0​​+KS12hσ2​(1+ηg2​S​).

This is a finite-round formulation of Appendix E.1, Lemma 15, PDF p. 30; its μ=0\mu=0μ=0 case is the first bound on PDF p. 31.

NonconvexFiniteRoundConvergence assumes a lower bound flowerf_\mathrm{lower}flower​ for fff and initializes every client control with KKK fresh gradients at x0x^0x0. Put F0=f(x0)−flowerF_0=f(x^0)-f_\mathrm{lower}F0​=f(x0)−flower​. For h≤(S/N)2/3/(24β)h\le(S/N)^{2/3}/(24\beta)h≤(S/N)2/3/(24β), establish

1T∑r=0T−1E∥∇f(xr)∥2≤14F0hT+70βhσ2KS(1+Sηg2).\frac1T\sum_{r=0}^{T-1}\mathbb E\|\nabla f(x^r)\|^2 \le\frac{14F_0}{hT} +\frac{70\beta h\sigma^2}{KS}\left(1+\frac S{\eta_g^2}\right).T1​r=0∑T−1​E∥∇f(xr)∥2≤hT14F0​​+KS70βhσ2​(1+ηg2​S​).

This is the explicit finite-round consequence targeted from Appendix E.2, Lemma 19, PDF p. 34, with the initialization specified on PDF pp. 31 and 35. The full-client warm start's communication cost is separate from these TTT optimization rounds.

What the result establishes

The bounds quantify optimization progress under stochastic gradients, several local steps, and partial participation. They permit arbitrarily different client objectives within the stated smoothness and convexity assumptions. Their output is a weighted random server iterate, represented by its expected loss, or a uniform random server iterate for the squared-gradient guarantee; this follows the output convention in equation (22), PDF p. 26.

The mathematical convergence analysis is published. The open work here is a Lean proof under the explicit stochastic-run model. The proposed statements do not themselves supply a machine-checked convergence proof. A completed development would provide reusable results about sampled finite averages, adaptive gradient queries, and optimization with stored noisy controls.

Where the difficulty lies

Local gradients are evaluated at different client states, and inactive clients retain controls computed in earlier rounds. Consequently, treating the server update as a centralized stochastic-gradient step discards both local disagreement and stale-control error. The challenge is to control these quantities while preserving their dependence on earlier randomness, as reflected in Appendix E.1–E.2, PDF pp. 26–35.

The source also needs careful transcription. The printed Theorem VII nonconvex noise term on PDF p. 25 differs from Lemma 19 in its smoothness and sampling factors, while output indices differ between equation (22) and the finite sum on p. 31. The exact targets above use the proof's finite-round constants and explicit indexing; they do not claim a verbatim formalization of every printed asymptotic rate.

Formalization scope

SCAFFOLD.Space is finite-dimensional real Euclidean space; SCAFFOLD.Problem records differentiable client objectives and smoothness. SCAFFOLD.Run records a standard Borel probability space, full-history filtration, measurable square-integrable iterates and oracle samples, and the concrete updates. Virtual local paths are generated before a fresh uniform size-SSS subset is sampled, as permitted by the paragraph after equation (22), PDF p. 26.

The conventions include S=NS=NS=N, K=1K=1K=1, zero noise, and μ=0\mu=0μ=0. The output indices are precisely 0,…,T−10,\ldots,T-10,…,T−1. Convex initial controls are deterministic; the nonconvex branch uses the specified stochastic warm start. The run definition assumes no descent inequality or convergence conclusion. Contributions should establish the four named propositions and necessary analysis/probability infrastructure while retaining these semantics.

Selected references

  • Sai Praneeth Karimireddy, Satyen Kale, Mehryar Mohri, Sashank J. Reddi, Sebastian U. Stich, and Ananda Theertha Suresh, SCAFFOLD: Stochastic Controlled Averaging for Federated Learning, ICML 2020, PMLR 119:5132–5143; arXiv:1910.06378v4, revised 2021. Primary scope: Theorem III, PDF p. 5; A3–A5 and (9), p. 14; Lemma 5, p. 17; Appendix E, pp. 25–35, especially Lemmas 15 and 19.
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Convex OptimizationProbability·Captain: Minghui

A Field Guide to Federated Optimization: Convex FedAvg ConvergenceResearch Paper

Why local training needs a convergence guarantee

Federated optimization studies learning when data and computation are spread across clients. Communicating after every stochastic gradient step can be costly, so clients often take several steps before averaging their models. The difficulty is that different clients can optimize different objective functions. Their models then move apart between communication rounds. A convergence guarantee must account for both stochastic gradient noise and this disagreement. Wang et al. give an explicit analysis of this tradeoff in A Field Guide to Federated Optimization, Section 6.1.

The relevant historical sequence is the introduction of FedAvg by McMahan et al. in 2017, the development of local-SGD convergence analyses reviewed by Wang et al., and the unified illustrative analysis in the 2021 field guide. The present target is that guide's known convex convergence theorem, rather than a new conjecture about arbitrary federated learning. The remaining open task is a Lean proof of the stated result. The mission is categorized as ResearchPaper: it formalizes a specific known result rather than proposing a new mathematical conjecture.

Setting: full participation with uniform weights

There are M≥1M\ge1M≥1 clients and a parameter vector in Rd\mathbb R^dRd. Client iii has a differentiable convex objective FiF_iFi​. The global objective is F(x)=M−1∑i=1MFi(x)F(x)=M^{-1}\sum_{i=1}^M F_i(x)F(x)=M−1∑i=1M​Fi​(x). Every local gradient is LLL-Lipschitz for the same L>0L>0L>0. Fix a global minimizer x⋆x^\starx⋆ of FFF and a deterministic initial model x0x_0x0​, and write D=∥x0−x⋆∥D=\|x_0-x^\star\|D=∥x0​−x⋆∥.

Every client participates in every round. Each of T≥1T\ge1T≥1 rounds consists of τ≥1\tau\ge1τ≥1 local steps with constant learning rate η\etaη. If xit,kx_i^{t,k}xit,k​ is client iii's state after kkk local steps of round ttt, its next state is xit,k+1=xit,k−ηgit,kx_i^{t,k+1}=x_i^{t,k}-\eta g_i^{t,k}xit,k+1​=xit,k​−ηgit,k​. At the next round all clients restart from the average of the preceding round's terminal states. The shadow iterate is xˉt,k=M−1∑ixit,k\bar x^{t,k}=M^{-1}\sum_i x_i^{t,k}xˉt,k=M−1∑i​xit,k​; it is defined even at local steps where clients do not communicate.

On a probability space (Ω,A,P)(\Omega,\mathcal A,\mathbb P)(Ω,A,P), the history before a step contains all past oracle draws. The stochastic gradients are conditionally unbiased, their conditional squared errors have expectation at most σ2\sigma^2σ2, and the different clients' current gradients are conditionally independent. The heterogeneity bound is ∥∇Fi(x)−∇F(x)∥≤ζ\|\nabla F_i(x)-\nabla F(x)\|\le\zeta∥∇Fi​(x)−∇F(x)∥≤ζ for every client and every point, where σ,ζ≥0\sigma,\zeta\ge0σ,ζ≥0. These are the assumptions of Section 6.1.1, PDF p. 40, equations (11)–(14), with the history and independence convention used explicitly in Appendix D.1 immediately after equation (27), PDF p. 87.

Formalization targets

The principal goal is Theorem 1, equation (15). For 0<η≤1/(4L)0<\eta\le1/(4L)0<η≤1/(4L), establish

E ⁣[1τT∑t=0T−1∑k=1τ(F(xˉt,k)−F(x⋆))]≤D22ητT+ησ2M+4τη2Lσ2+18τ2η2Lζ2.\mathbb E\!\left[\frac1{\tau T}\sum_{t=0}^{T-1}\sum_{k=1}^{\tau} \bigl(F(\bar x^{t,k})-F(x^\star)\bigr)\right] \le \frac{D^2}{2\eta\tau T}+\frac{\eta\sigma^2}{M} +4\tau\eta^2L\sigma^2+18\tau^2\eta^2L\zeta^2.E[τT1​t=0∑T−1​k=1∑τ​(F(xˉt,k)−F(x⋆))]≤2ητTD2​+Mησ2​+4τη2Lσ2+18τ2η2Lζ2.

Two source milestones describe the intermediate results. Lemma 1 bounds the conditional average loss within a round by the decrease of squared distance to the minimizer, plus a noise term and a sum of client disagreements. Lemma 2 bounds each conditional squared disagreement by 18τ2η2ζ2+4τη2σ218\tau^2\eta^2\zeta^2+4\tau\eta^2\sigma^218τ2η2ζ2+4τη2σ2. Both are stated on PDF p. 41, Section 6.1.2, with proofs in Appendix D, PDF pp. 86–88. They remain genuine open proof obligations; the algorithm model does not assume either estimate.

An additional milestone records the same theorem's tuned-step consequence, equations (16)–(17), in the regime D,σ,ζ>0D,\sigma,\zeta>0D,σ,ζ>0. With

η=min⁡{14L,MDτTσ,D2/3τ2/3T1/3L1/3σ2/3,D2/3τT1/3L1/3ζ2/3},\eta=\min\left\{\frac1{4L}, \frac{\sqrt M D}{\sqrt\tau\sqrt T\sigma}, \frac{D^{2/3}}{\tau^{2/3}T^{1/3}L^{1/3}\sigma^{2/3}}, \frac{D^{2/3}}{\tau T^{1/3}L^{1/3}\zeta^{2/3}}\right\},η=min{4L1​,τ​T​σM​D​,τ2/3T1/3L1/3σ2/3D2/3​,τT1/3L1/3ζ2/3D2/3​},

the same expected loss is at most

2LD2τT+2σDMτT+5L1/3σ2/3D4/3τ1/3T2/3+19L1/3ζ2/3D4/3T2/3.\frac{2LD^2}{\tau T}+\frac{2\sigma D}{\sqrt{M\tau T}} +\frac{5L^{1/3}\sigma^{2/3}D^{4/3}}{\tau^{1/3}T^{2/3}} +\frac{19L^{1/3}\zeta^{2/3}D^{4/3}}{T^{2/3}}.τT2LD2​+MτT​2σD​+τ1/3T2/35L1/3σ2/3D4/3​+T2/319L1/3ζ2/3D4/3​.

The principal goal includes zero-noise and zero-heterogeneity cases. The extra positivity conditions apply only to the printed tuned-step formula, whose denominators otherwise require separate conventions.

What this establishes

The bound separates an initial-distance term, a noise term improved by the number of clients, and two costs of local updates. It quantifies how local work interacts with stochastic noise and differing client objectives. Its conclusion concerns the average objective gap along the post-update shadow sequence; it does not assert the same bound for every last iterate or for the average of client losses. These distinctions follow directly from the quantity defined in equation (14).

A completed formalization would provide reusable checked components for stochastic optimization: finite client averages, history-conditioned oracle assumptions, per-round potential estimates, and disagreement bounds. The paper supplies the mathematical proof; this draft supplies checked statements and definitions. No convergence proof is claimed by creating or compiling the proposal.

Where the difficulty lies

The average update evaluates each gradient at its own client's state. It therefore does not directly equal a centralized stochastic-gradient step at the shadow iterate. A proof must control that discrepancy quantitatively, preserve the conditioning on the round's starting history, and justify the 1/M1/M1/M noise improvement using independent client sampling. Ignoring the sampling relationship can invalidate the advertised bound even for scalar quadratic objectives.

Formalization scope

The model uses finite-dimensional real Euclidean space, including the harmless zero-dimensional case, and a standard Borel probability space. A filtration indexed by tτ+kt\tau+ktτ+k records the full past. Local states and gradients carry explicit measurability and finite-second-moment conditions. These probability conventions support actual Bochner and conditional expectations; integrals are not treated as arbitrary total functions without analytic obligations.

The local objectives, global objective, gradients, iterates, and shadow averages are concrete functions. The model assumes neither a drift bound nor a progress bound. Source hypotheses are uniform in the model point, and the minimizer is an actual minimizer of the averaged objective. Unequal weighting, partial client participation, nonconvex objectives, adaptive step sizes, and privacy mechanisms are outside this particular theorem. Contributions should prove the named source lemmas or their necessary analytic infrastructure while retaining these statements.

Selected references

  • Jianyu Wang et al., A Field Guide to Federated Optimization, 2021, arXiv:2107.06917v1, Section 6.1.1–6.1.2, PDF pp. 40–41; Appendix D, PDF pp. 86–88.
  • H. Brendan McMahan et al., Communication-Efficient Learning of Deep Networks from Decentralized Data, AISTATS 2017, arXiv:1602.05629, the FedAvg algorithm cited by the field guide. This is historical context, not an additional target.
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Operations ResearchOptimizationProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

Wasserstein Distributionally Robust Optimization V: The Wasserstein Shrinkage Estimator and Robust MMSE EstimationTextbook

Motivation

Minimum mean square error (MMSE) estimation — predicting a signal xxx from a noisy observation yyy by minimizing expected squared prediction error — underlies linear systems theory, linear regression, Kalman filtering, and multiple-input multiple-output signal processing. Its classical solution assumes the joint distribution of (x,y)(x,y)(x,y) is known exactly; in practice it is estimated from data, and the estimator inherits sampling error and model risk. Kuhn, Mohajerin Esfahani, Nguyen & Shafieezadeh-Abadeh's 2019 INFORMS TutORials chapter shows that hedging the MMSE objective against every distribution in a Wasserstein ball around the empirical distribution — an infinite-dimensional worst case over an intractable set of measures, a priori — collapses to a tractable, finite-dimensional convex semidefinite program (Theorem 25, p. 29), building on the Gelbrich-hull machinery of Section 2.3. This mission formalizes that reduction.

Setting

Fix mx,my∈Nm_x, m_y \in \mathbb{N}mx​,my​∈N and let ξ=(x,y)∈Rmx×Rmy\xi = (x,y) \in \mathbb{R}^{m_x} \times \mathbb{R}^{m_y}ξ=(x,y)∈Rmx​×Rmy​ be a random vector: xxx the signal to be estimated, yyy the observation. An estimator is a measurable function ψ:Rmy→Rmx\psi : \mathbb{R}^{m_y} \to \mathbb{R}^{m_x}ψ:Rmy​→Rmx​; write Ψ\PsiΨ for the family of all estimators. The distribution of ξ\xiξ is only known to lie in a type-2 Wasserstein ball Bε,2(P^N)B_{\varepsilon,2}(\hat P_N)Bε,2​(P^N​) centered at an elliptical nominal distribution P^N=Eg(μ^,Σ^)\hat P_N = E_g(\hat\mu,\hat\Sigma)P^N​=Eg​(μ^​,Σ^) with nominal mean μ^∈Rm\hat\mu \in \mathbb{R}^mμ^​∈Rm (m=mx+mym=m_x+m_ym=mx​+my​), nominal covariance Σ^∈S+m\hat\Sigma \in S^m_+Σ^∈S+m​, and density generator ggg. The distributionally robust MMSE estimation problem is

inf⁡ψ∈Ψsup⁡Q∈Bε,2(P^N)EQ[∥x−ψ(y)∥22].(35)\inf_{\psi \in \Psi} \sup_{Q \in B_{\varepsilon,2}(\hat P_N)} E_Q\big[\|x-\psi(y)\|_2^2\big]. \tag{35}ψ∈Ψinf​Q∈Bε,2​(P^N​)sup​EQ​[∥x−ψ(y)∥22​].(35)

Writing Σ^=(Σ^xxΣ^xyΣ^yxΣ^yy)\hat\Sigma = \begin{pmatrix}\hat\Sigma_{xx}&\hat\Sigma_{xy}\\\hat\Sigma_{yx}& \hat\Sigma_{yy}\end{pmatrix}Σ^=(Σ^xx​Σ^yx​​Σ^xy​Σ^yy​​) blockwise, the nonlinear convex SDP

max⁡Sf(S)=Tr[Sxx−SxySyy−1Syx]s.t.S=(SxxSxySyxSyy)⪰0,  Sxx⪰0,  Syy⪰0,  Tr[S+Σ^−2(Σ^1/2SΣ^1/2)1/2]≤ε2,  S⪰λmin⁡(Σ^)I(36)\max_S f(S) = \mathrm{Tr}[S_{xx} - S_{xy}S_{yy}^{-1}S_{yx}] \quad \text{s.t.} \quad S = \begin{pmatrix}S_{xx}&S_{xy}\\S_{yx}&S_{yy}\end{pmatrix} \succeq 0,\; S_{xx} \succeq 0,\; S_{yy} \succeq 0,\; \mathrm{Tr}[S+\hat\Sigma-2(\hat\Sigma^{1/2}S\hat\Sigma^{1/2})^{1/2}] \le \varepsilon^2,\; S \succeq \lambda_{\min}(\hat\Sigma) I \tag{36}Smax​f(S)=Tr[Sxx​−Sxy​Syy−1​Syx​]s.t.S=(Sxx​Syx​​Sxy​Syy​​)⪰0,Sxx​⪰0,Syy​⪰0,Tr[S+Σ^−2(Σ^1/2SΣ^1/2)1/2]≤ε2,S⪰λmin​(Σ^)I(36)

is the finite-dimensional relaxation the chapter builds toward.

Formalization targets

Goal (Theorem 25, distributionally robust MMSE estimator). If Σ^≻0\hat\Sigma \succ 0Σ^≻0, then the optimal value of problem (35) equals the optimal value of SDP (36). Moreover, if S⋆S^\starS⋆ is optimal in (36) with Syy⋆S^\star_{yy}Syy⋆​ invertible, then the affine function

ψ⋆(y)=Sxy⋆(Syy⋆)−1(y−μ^y)+μ^x\psi^\star(y) = S^\star_{xy}(S^\star_{yy})^{-1}(y-\hat\mu_y) + \hat\mu_xψ⋆(y)=Sxy⋆​(Syy⋆​)−1(y−μ^​y​)+μ^​x​

attains the outer infimum of (35) — it is a distributionally robust MMSE estimator, exhibited in closed form from an SDP optimizer.

Significance

Theorem 25 reduces an a priori infinite-dimensional, worst-case functional optimization problem (an infimum over all measurable estimators of a supremum over all distributions within a Wasserstein ball) to a finite convex program with one linear matrix inequality, one Loewner-order lower bound, and one trace/matrix-square-root constraint — solvable in polynomial time, with the optimal estimator recovered in closed form from the SDP's optimal block matrix. It shows that robustifying MMSE estimation against distributional ambiguity does not sacrifice tractability: the resulting estimator remains affine, the same functional form as the classical (non-robust) best linear unbiased estimator, only with its coefficients drawn from a regularized covariance estimate rather than the raw sample covariance. Formalizing it fixes, machine-checkably, the exact shape of that regularization — which SDP constraints are load-bearing (the Loewner lower bound in particular rules out a numerically unstable near-singular SyyS_{yy}Syy​) and which conditions (Σ^≻0\hat\Sigma \succ 0Σ^≻0, Syy⋆S^\star_{yy}Syy⋆​ invertible) the closed-form estimator formula actually needs.

Difficulty

The paper's own remark (p. 29) names the two nontrivial steps: first, "establishing a minimax theorem for (35) and exploiting the properties of elliptical distributions" to show the outer infimum is attained by an affine estimator — a priori (35) ranges over all measurable ψ\psiψ, and there is no obvious reason the worst case forces linearity. Second, "combining this structural insight with Theorem 16" (the SDP-representability result for indefinite quadratic losses under an elliptical nominal distribution, itself a nontrivial closed-form reduction of an infinite-dimensional worst-case risk) to convert the now-restricted problem over affine estimators into the finite SDP (36). Neither step is a routine consequence of the ambiguity-set definitions alone; each requires structural facts about elliptical distributions and quadratic losses proved earlier in the chapter.

Formalization scope

The signal-observation space is EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin mx ⊕ Fin my), with xxx and yyy recovered as the two summand projections; the block matrix SSS is Matrix (Fin mx ⊕ Fin my) (Fin mx ⊕ Fin my) ℝ, and Matrix.toBlocks₁₁/toBlocks₁₂/toBlocks₂₁/toBlocks₂₂ give its four blocks. The constraint "Sxy=Syx⊤S_{xy}=S_{yx}^\topSxy​=Syx⊤​" is not stated as a separate hypothesis: it follows automatically once SSS is symmetric (implied by S.PosSemidef), so encoding the feasible set from a single symmetric S rather than four independently-quantified blocks makes it structurally impossible to drop — see pitfall 4 of BRIEF.md. The outer infimum of problem (35) ranges only over measurable ψ\psiψ (Measurable ψ on the binder), matching the paper's own definition of Ψ\PsiΨ as "the family of all possible measurable estimators" (p. 29) exactly. λ_min(Σ̂) is taken as a hypothesis parameter characterized by the two properties that make it the minimum ("≤ every eigenvalue of Σ̂, and attained by some eigenvalue"), rather than invoking a specific Mathlib min-eigenvalue API by name. S_{yy}⁻¹ uses the ordinary matrix inverse (junk zero matrix when singular), matching the paper's literal notation; S^\star_{yy} invertible is stated as an added hypothesis, not present verbatim on the page, because the paper leaves the formula's well-definedness implicit — disclosed per pitfall 5 rather than silently assumed away. The paper's own "which is always solvable" clause is not asserted: Theorem 25 states, as part of itself, that SDP (36) attains its maximum (an unconditional existence claim for an optimal S⋆S^\starS⋆); this formalization states only the conditional consequences of such an S⋆S^\starS⋆ existing, not that one does — proving or asserting solvability is out of this mission's scope, so the Lean statement is strictly weaker than Theorem 25's own conclusion on this point, disclosed rather than silently dropped. All risk-style suprema are EReal-valued and Integrable-guarded, matching the series' convention. No milestone theorem is included: the paper's own proof sketch derives (33)'s and by extension (36)'s SDP "via Theorem 16", but Theorem 16 (indefinite quadratic loss and p=2p=2p=2, eq. 23) was itself judged too heavy to state faithfully in 02-gelbrich's time budget and is not redefined here either — see STATUS.md. Theorem 24 (the Wasserstein shrinkage estimator, this chapter's originally recommended goal) is out of scope: its closed-form eigenvalue transformation (eq. 34a/34b) requires transcribing nested square roots from a rendered PDF page that this session's time budget did not allow verifying to the standard the brief demands (pitfall 1); the brief's own documented fallback to Theorem 25 was taken instead.

Selected references

  • Kuhn, D., Mohajerin Esfahani, P., Nguyen, V. A., & Shafieezadeh-Abadeh, S. (2019). Wasserstein Distributionally Robust Optimization: Theory and Applications in Machine Learning. INFORMS TutORials in Operations Research. https://doi.org/10.1287/educ.2019.0198
  • Nguyen, V. A., Shafieezadeh-Abadeh, S., Yue, M.-C., Kuhn, D., & Wiesemann, W. (2021). Optimistic distributionally robust optimization for nonparametric likelihood approximation. Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, 32.
  • Shafieezadeh-Abadeh, S., Nguyen, V. A., Kuhn, D., & Mohajerin Esfahani, P. (2018). Wasserstein distributionally robust Kalman filtering. Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, 31.
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Operations ResearchOptimizationProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

Wasserstein Distributionally Robust Optimization II: The Gelbrich Ambiguity Set and Elliptical TractabilityTextbook

Motivation

Distributionally robust optimization (DRO) hedges a decision against every distribution within some ambiguity set around an estimated (nominal) distribution, rather than trusting the estimate exactly. When the ambiguity set is a ball of radius ε\varepsilonε around the empirical distribution P^N\hat P_NP^N​ in the type-ppp Wasserstein metric, the resulting worst-case risk problem inherits attractive statistical guarantees (Mohajerin Esfahani & Kuhn 2018) but is, in general, an optimization problem over an infinite-dimensional space of measures. Kuhn, Mohajerin Esfahani, Nguyen & Shafieezadeh-Abadeh's 2019 INFORMS TutORials chapter surveys when this problem becomes computationally tractable. One route — the subject of this mission — discards everything about the nominal distribution except its mean vector and covariance matrix and replaces the Wasserstein ball with a set built only from these two moments, the Gelbrich hull. The construction is due to Gelbrich (1990), who first bounded the Wasserstein distance between two distributions using only their means and covariances.

Setting

Fix Ξ⊆Rm\Xi \subseteq \mathbb{R}^mΞ⊆Rm, a nominal distribution P^N∈P(Ξ)\hat P_N \in \mathcal{P}(\Xi)P^N​∈P(Ξ), a radius ε>0\varepsilon > 0ε>0 and an exponent p≥1p \ge 1p≥1. The type-ppp Wasserstein distance between two probability measures Q,Q′Q, Q'Q,Q′ on Rm\mathbb{R}^mRm is

Wp(Q,Q′)=(inf⁡π∈Π(Q,Q′)∫∥ξ−ξ′∥p dπ(ξ,ξ′))1/p,W_p(Q,Q') = \Big(\inf_{\pi \in \Pi(Q,Q')} \int \|\xi-\xi'\|^p \, d\pi(\xi,\xi')\Big)^{1/p},Wp​(Q,Q′)=(π∈Π(Q,Q′)inf​∫∥ξ−ξ′∥pdπ(ξ,ξ′))1/p,

the infimum over couplings π\piπ (probability measures on Rm×Rm\mathbb{R}^m \times \mathbb{R}^mRm×Rm with marginals QQQ and Q′Q'Q′) of the ppp-th root of the expected ppp-th power of Euclidean distance. The Wasserstein ambiguity set is Bε,p(P^N)={Q∈P(Ξ):Wp(Q,P^N)≤ε}B_{\varepsilon,p}(\hat P_N) = \{Q \in \mathcal{P}(\Xi) : W_p(Q,\hat P_N) \le \varepsilon\}Bε,p​(P^N​)={Q∈P(Ξ):Wp​(Q,P^N​)≤ε}, and the worst-case risk of a loss function ℓ\ellℓ is Rε,p(P^N,ℓ)=sup⁡Q∈Bε,p(P^N)EQ[ℓ(ξ)]R_{\varepsilon,p}(\hat P_N,\ell) = \sup_{Q \in B_{\varepsilon,p}(\hat P_N)} E_Q[\ell(\xi)]Rε,p​(P^N​,ℓ)=supQ∈Bε,p​(P^N​)​EQ​[ℓ(ξ)].

Suppose P^N\hat P_NP^N​ has mean vector μ^\hat\muμ^​ and covariance matrix Σ^∈S+m\hat\Sigma \in S^m_+Σ^∈S+m​ (the positive semidefinite m×mm\times mm×m matrices). The mean-covariance uncertainty set is

Uε(μ^,Σ^)={(μ,Σ)∈Rm×S+m:∥μ^−μ∥22+Tr[Σ^+Σ−2(Σ^1/2ΣΣ^1/2)1/2]≤ε2},U_\varepsilon(\hat\mu,\hat\Sigma) = \Big\{(\mu,\Sigma) \in \mathbb{R}^m \times S^m_+ : \|\hat\mu-\mu\|_2^2 + \mathrm{Tr}\big[\hat\Sigma+\Sigma-2(\hat\Sigma^{1/2}\Sigma\hat\Sigma^{1/2})^{1/2}\big] \le \varepsilon^2\Big\},Uε​(μ^​,Σ^)={(μ,Σ)∈Rm×S+m​:∥μ^​−μ∥22​+Tr[Σ^+Σ−2(Σ^1/2ΣΣ^1/2)1/2]≤ε2},

where Σ1/2\Sigma^{1/2}Σ1/2 is the positive-semidefinite square root. The Gelbrich hull is Gε(μ^,Σ^)={Q∈P(Ξ):(EQ[ξ],CovQ[ξ])∈Uε(μ^,Σ^)}G_\varepsilon(\hat\mu,\hat\Sigma) = \{Q \in \mathcal{P}(\Xi) : (E_Q[\xi],\mathrm{Cov}_Q[\xi]) \in U_\varepsilon(\hat\mu,\hat\Sigma)\}Gε​(μ^​,Σ^)={Q∈P(Ξ):(EQ​[ξ],CovQ​[ξ])∈Uε​(μ^​,Σ^)}: the distributions on Ξ\XiΞ whose own mean and covariance lie in Uε(μ^,Σ^)U_\varepsilon(\hat\mu,\hat\Sigma)Uε​(μ^​,Σ^). An elliptical distribution Eg(μ,Σ)E_g(\mu,\Sigma)Eg​(μ,Σ) has density f(ξ)=C⋅det⁡(Σ)−1g((ξ−μ)⊤Σ−1(ξ−μ))f(\xi) = C \cdot \det(\Sigma)^{-1} g\big((\xi-\mu)^\top\Sigma^{-1}(\xi-\mu)\big)f(ξ)=C⋅det(Σ)−1g((ξ−μ)⊤Σ−1(ξ−μ)) for a density generator ggg and normalizing constant CCC; two elliptical distributions "have the same density generator" when their ggg coincide (e.g. both Gaussian, both Student-tνt_\nutν​ for the same ν\nuν).

Formalization targets

Goal (Theorem 13, Gelbrich hull). For every p≥2p \ge 2p≥2,

Bε,p(P^N)⊆Gε(μ^,Σ^).B_{\varepsilon,p}(\hat P_N) \subseteq G_\varepsilon(\hat\mu,\hat\Sigma).Bε,p​(P^N​)⊆Gε​(μ^​,Σ^).

This is an outer approximation: every distribution within ε\varepsilonε of P^N\hat P_NP^N​ in Wasserstein distance has a mean and covariance inside Uε(μ^,Σ^)U_\varepsilon(\hat\mu,\hat\Sigma)Uε​(μ^​,Σ^), so optimizing over the Gelbrich hull instead of the Wasserstein ball can only enlarge the feasible set, never shrink it below the truth.

Supporting results. Theorem 4 (Gelbrich bound) gives the moment-only lower bound on W2W_2W2​ that Theorem 13 is built from, with equality for elliptical distributions sharing a generator. Proposition 1 sharpens the goal's containment to an equality on the mean-covariance projection itself, under the same two conditions (Ξ=Rm\Xi = \mathbb{R}^mΞ=Rm, P^N\hat P_NP^N​ elliptical). Corollary 1 propagates the goal's set containment to the risk level: Rε,p(P^N,ℓ)≤Rε(μ^,Σ^,ℓ)R_{\varepsilon,p}(\hat P_N,\ell) \le R_\varepsilon(\hat\mu,\hat\Sigma,\ell)Rε,p​(P^N​,ℓ)≤Rε​(μ^​,Σ^,ℓ) for every ℓ\ellℓ, where Rε(μ^,Σ^,ℓ)=sup⁡Q∈Gε(μ^,Σ^)EQ[ℓ(ξ)]R_\varepsilon(\hat\mu,\hat\Sigma,\ell) = \sup_{Q \in G_\varepsilon(\hat\mu,\hat\Sigma)} E_Q[\ell(\xi)]Rε​(μ^​,Σ^,ℓ)=supQ∈Gε​(μ^​,Σ^)​EQ​[ℓ(ξ)] is the Gelbrich risk.

Significance

Theorem 13 is the hinge between an intractable infinite-dimensional worst-case-risk problem and a tractable one: the paper goes on (Theorem 16, outside this mission's scope) to show that for quadratic loss functions and elliptical nominal distributions the Gelbrich risk itself equals the optimal value of a semidefinite program with two linear matrix inequality constraints — and that, under those same conditions, the Wasserstein worst-case risk, the Gelbrich risk and the SDP value all coincide. Corollary 1 is what makes the Gelbrich risk usable as a conservative surrogate even outside that special case: it upper-bounds the true worst-case risk for any loss function and any p≥2p \ge 2p≥2, at the cost of discarding all but first- and second-order information about the nominal distribution. Formalizing the goal and Corollary 1 gives the exact scope in which this moment-relaxation is licensed — the p≥2p \ge 2p≥2 restriction and the outer-approximation direction are both easy to get backwards, and this mission's Lean encoding fixes both irreversibly.

Difficulty

The obvious first argument is to prove containment pointwise: fix Q∈Bε,p(P^N)Q \in B_{\varepsilon,p}(\hat P_N)Q∈Bε,p​(P^N​) and show its mean and covariance land in Uε(μ^,Σ^)U_\varepsilon(\hat\mu,\hat\Sigma)Uε​(μ^​,Σ^). That reduces Theorem 13 to Proposition 1's containment half, which in turn reduces to the Gelbrich bound (Theorem 4) applied to the pair (Q,P^N)(Q,\hat P_N)(Q,P^N​) — the inequality direction of Theorem 4 suffices for containment; only the sharper equality direction (needed for Proposition 1's own equality clause) requires the elliptical hypothesis. The non-obvious step is Theorem 4 itself: bounding W2(Q,Q′)W_2(Q,Q')W2​(Q,Q′) below by a closed-form expression in the two distributions' first two moments only, for arbitrary Q,Q′Q,Q'Q,Q′ with those moments, requires an argument that survives every coupling π\piπ — the paper's proof goes through a lower bound on the coupling's cross-covariance term via the eigenvalues of Σ1/2Σ′Σ1/2\Sigma^{1/2}\Sigma'\Sigma^{1/2}Σ1/2Σ′Σ1/2, not a direct manipulation of W2W_2W2​'s definition.

Formalization scope

Rm\mathbb{R}^mRm is EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin m); a "distribution" is a MeasureTheory.Measure on it constrained by Q Set.univ = 1 (probability) and Q Ξᶜ = 0 (support in Ξ). The Wasserstein distance is ENNReal-valued (Definition 1's infimum over couplings, matching 01-duality's convention); the worst-case and Gelbrich risks are EReal-valued suprema restricted to loss functions integrable under the candidate distribution, avoiding Mathlib's junk value for a non-integrable Bochner integral. Σ1/2\Sigma^{1/2}Σ1/2 is the positive-semidefinite matrix square root, picked by choice from its defining existential and applied in this mission only to matrices hypothesized (or, per Section 2.3's standing assumption, given) positive semidefinite. Elliptical distributions (IsElliptical) are represented by the paper's own density formula (a measure equal to volume.withDensity of C·det(Σ)⁻¹·g((ξ-μ)ᵀΣ⁻¹(ξ-μ)) for some C>0), together with the mean/covariance facts every theorem in this chunk reads off directly; an earlier draft kept only the latter, under which "same density generator" held vacuously for any moment-matched pair — corrected after moderation flagged it (see STATUS.md). Because 01-duality (Wasserstein distance, ambiguity set, worst-case risk) is not yet a published mission, this chunk redefines those objects locally in its own namespace rather than importing an unpublished draft, per the series' definition-reuse policy; a future upload can retire the duplication once 01-duality is live. A formalization that dropped Theorem 4's "same density generator" condition from its equality clause, or that stated the goal's containment for all p≥1p\ge 1p≥1 rather than p≥2p \ge 2p≥2, would be trivializing or simply false — both are explicit hypotheses in the Lean statements. Matrix.PosSemidef and its Loewner order carry the S+mS^m_+S+m​ constraints; no elliptical-distribution or Gelbrich-hull infrastructure exists elsewhere on the platform, so this mission's definitions are original contributions reusable by any later extension (Theorem 16/17, Lemma 1/2's SDP representations) of this series.

Selected references

  • Kuhn, D., Mohajerin Esfahani, P., Nguyen, V. A., & Shafieezadeh-Abadeh, S. (2019). Wasserstein Distributionally Robust Optimization: Theory and Applications in Machine Learning. INFORMS TutORials in Operations Research. https://doi.org/10.1287/educ.2019.0198
  • Gelbrich, M. (1990). On a formula for the L2 Wasserstein metric between measures on Euclidean and Hilbert spaces. Mathematische Nachrichten, 147(1), 185–203.
  • Mohajerin Esfahani, P., & Kuhn, D. (2018). Data-driven distributionally robust optimization using the Wasserstein metric: performance guarantees and tractable reformulations. Mathematical Programming, 171(1), 115–166.
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ProbabilityStatistics·Captain: mikedeng1

High-Dimensional Statistics XIII: A Localized Uniform LawTextbook

Motivation

Every consistency guarantee for an empirical-risk-minimization procedure — the Lasso, kernel ridge regression, maximum likelihood — ultimately rests on relating an empirical average to its population expectation, uniformly over the class of candidate functions or parameters being searched. Chapter 4 established the classical form of this connection: a uniform law of large numbers, bounding sup⁡f∈F∣∥f∥n2−∥f∥22∣\sup_{f\in F}|\|f\|_n^2-\|f\|_2^2|supf∈F​∣∥f∥n2​−∥f∥22​∣ by an absolute quantity governed by the (unlocalized) complexity of FFF. Such a bound is often wasteful: it treats a function with small population norm the same as one with large population norm, when intuitively the empirical and population norms of a small function should already agree closely. This mission formalizes the sharper, localized form of this uniform law — the same localization principle Chapter 13 used for nonparametric least squares, now applied directly to the empirical-versus-population norm comparison itself, giving relative rather than absolute control and recovering optimal convergence rates that the unlocalized theory misses.

Setting

Fix a probability distribution PPP over a covariate space XXX and nnn i.i.d. samples x1,…,xn∼Px_1,\dots,x_n\sim Px1​,…,xn​∼P. For f:X→Rf:X\to\mathbb Rf:X→R, the population norm is ∥f∥22:=∫Xf(x)2 P(dx)\|f\|_2^2:=\int_Xf(x)^2\,P(dx)∥f∥22​:=∫X​f(x)2P(dx) and the empirical norm is ∥f∥n2:=1n∑i=1nf(xi)2\|f\|_n^2:=\frac1n\sum_{i=1}^nf(x_i)^2∥f∥n2​:=n1​∑i=1n​f(xi​)2; by linearity of expectation, E[∥f∥n2]=∥f∥22\mathbb E[\|f\|_n^2]=\|f\|_2^2E[∥f∥n2​]=∥f∥22​, so the question is how tightly ∥f∥n2\|f\|_n^2∥f∥n2​ concentrates around ∥f∥22\|f\|_2^2∥f∥22​, uniformly over a function class FFF. A class FFF is star-shaped around the origin if f∈F,α∈[0,1]  ⟹  αf∈Ff\in F,\alpha\in[0,1]\implies\alpha f\in Ff∈F,α∈[0,1]⟹αf∈F, and bbb-uniformly bounded if ∥f∥∞≤b\|f\|_\infty\le b∥f∥∞​≤b for every f∈Ff\in Ff∈F. The relevant complexity measure is the population localized Rademacher complexity

Rn(δ;F):=Eε,x[ sup⁡f∈F, ∥f∥2≤δ ∣1n∑i=1nεif(xi)∣ ],R_n(\delta;F) := \mathbb E_{\varepsilon,x}\Big[\ \sup_{f\in F,\ \|f\|_2\le\delta}\ \Big| \tfrac1n\sum_{i=1}^n\varepsilon_if(x_i)\Big|\ \Big],Rn​(δ;F):=Eε,x​[ f∈F, ∥f∥2​≤δsup​ ​n1​i=1∑n​εi​f(xi​)​ ],

where ε1,…,εn\varepsilon_1,\dots,\varepsilon_nε1​,…,εn​ are i.i.d. Rademacher signs independent of the samples — note that, unlike Chapter 13's Gaussian complexity for fixed design points, this expectation integrates out the randomness of the samples themselves, since this chapter treats {xi}\{x_i\}{xi​} as genuinely random throughout. A critical radius δn\delta_nδn​ is any positive solution of Rn(δ;F)≤δ2/bR_n(\delta;F)\le\delta^2/bRn​(δ;F)≤δ2/b.

Formalization targets

Theorem 14.1 (goal). Given FFF star-shaped and bbb-uniformly bounded, and δn\delta_nδn​ solving the critical inequality, for any t≥δnt\ge\delta_nt≥δn​,

∣∥f∥n2−∥f∥22∣≤12∥f∥22+t22for all f∈F,\Big|\|f\|_n^2-\|f\|_2^2\Big|\le\frac12\|f\|_2^2+\frac{t^2}2 \qquad\text{for all }f\in F,​∥f∥n2​−∥f∥22​​≤21​∥f∥22​+2t2​for all f∈F,

with probability at least 1−c1e−c2nt2/b21-c_1e^{-c_2nt^2/b^2}1−c1​e−c2​nt2/b2; and if additionally nδn2≥2c2log⁡(4log⁡(1/δn))n\delta_n^2\ge\frac2{c_2}\log(4\log(1/\delta_n))nδn2​≥c2​2​log(4log(1/δn​)),

∣∥f∥n−∥f∥2∣≤c0δnfor all f∈F,\big|\|f\|_n-\|f\|_2\big|\le c_0\delta_n \qquad\text{for all }f\in F,​∥f∥n​−∥f∥2​​≤c0​δn​for all f∈F,

with probability at least 1−c1′e−c2′nδn2/b21-c_1'e^{-c_2'n\delta_n^2/b^2}1−c1′​e−c2′​nδn2​/b2.

Significance

Theorem 14.1 is the technical engine behind two of the book's other sharp results: Example 14.2's derivation of the optimal n−1/2n^{-1/2}n−1/2 rate for bounded quadratic function classes (where the unlocalized analogue of this theorem only achieves the slower n−1/4n^{-1/4}n−1/4 rate), and, more broadly, every later argument in the book that needs to translate an empirical-norm guarantee (as produced directly by an M-estimator's optimality, e.g. Chapter 13's nonparametric least-squares bounds) into a population-norm guarantee, or vice versa. The gap between the "absolute" uniform law of Chapter 4 and the "relative" one here is exactly the difference between a bound that is only informative for functions of order-one population norm, and one that remains sharp arbitrarily close to the origin — which is precisely where a consistent estimator's error eventually lives. Formalizing the statement produces, for the first time on the platform, the localized-Rademacher-complexity vocabulary at the population level (as opposed to Chapter 13's fixed-design Gaussian-complexity version), reusable by any future mission needing to pass between empirical and population norms.

Difficulty

The naive approach — apply Hoeffding's inequality to ∣∥f∥n2−∥f∥22∣|\|f\|_n^2-\|f\|_2^2|∣∥f∥n2​−∥f∥22​∣ for a fixed fff, then union-bound (or apply the unlocalized Rademacher-complexity uniform law of Chapter 4) over FFF — gives a bound whose complexity term does not shrink as ∥f∥2→0\|f\|_2\to0∥f∥2​→0, since it uses the complexity of all of FFF regardless of a given function's own size. This is exactly the sub-optimality Example 14.2 exhibits concretely: the naive bound gives rate n−1/4n^{-1/4}n−1/4 where the truth is n−1/2n^{-1/2}n−1/2. The fix is not merely technical bookkeeping — it requires a genuine peeling argument over dyadic norm-scales (exactly as in Chapter 13's proof of Theorem 13.13), applying the localized complexity Rn(δ;F)R_n(\delta;F)Rn​(δ;F) at the scale δ=∥f∥2\delta=\|f\|_2δ=∥f∥2​ appropriate to each individual fff, and controlling the resulting geometric sum of tail probabilities across scales. A reader's first instinct — bound ∥f∥2\|f\|_2∥f∥2​ in terms of ∥f∥n\|f\|_n∥f∥n​ and substitute — is circular, since ∥f∥n\|f\|_n∥f∥n​ is itself the random quantity being controlled.

Formalization scope

The covariate space X carries an arbitrary MeasurableSpace structure (no topology needed for the statement); the sample sequence and the Rademacher signs are both represented as families of measurable functions on a shared probability space Ω, with their joint independence stated as a single IndepFun between the two vector-valued sequences (rather than building a combined-index iIndepFun), since it is the two sequences — not each pair of individual variables — whose independence the book invokes. The two conclusions of Theorem 14.1 are stated as a conjunction with the second gated behind its own extra hypothesis, never collapsed into a single implication, since the book's own statement keeps them syntactically and logically distinct (the second requires a strictly stronger and additional condition on top of the first's). The universal constants (c1,c2,c0,c1',c2') are quantified before every instance object, so they cannot secretly depend on the function class, sample size, or radius. Every f ∈ F is required measurable (hF_meas, added in revision): the book's own framing implicitly restricts to measurable, square-integrable f throughout (p. 454), and without this hypothesis the population norm popNormSq, which appears directly in the goal's conclusion, could silently take Mathlib's Bochner-integral junk value 0 for a non-measurable, pointwise-bounded member of a star-shaped, uniformly-bounded F. The trivializing formalization ruled out here is stating the localization constraint at the empirical rather than population norm in popRademacherComplexity — this chapter's whole point (contrast Chapter 13's Gn, correctly localized at the empirical norm since there the design is fixed) is that Rn(δ;F)R_n(\delta;F)Rn​(δ;F)'s localization is a population-level object, precisely because the samples are random here. Welcome future contributions: Corollary 14.3's covering-number sufficient condition for the empirical version of the critical inequality, and Theorem 14.20's Lipschitz/strongly-convex cost-function uniform law, both deferred from this mission (see STATUS.md) as they need substantial additional apparatus (metric entropy integrals; cost functions and strong convexity) beyond what Theorem 14.1 itself requires.

Selected references

  • M. Wainwright, High-Dimensional Statistics: A Non-Asymptotic Viewpoint, Cambridge University Press, 2019, Chapter 14. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781108627771
  • P. Bartlett, O. Bousquet and S. Mendelson, "Local Rademacher complexities," Annals of Statistics, 33(4):1497-1537, 2005. https://doi.org/10.1214/009053605000000282
  • V. Koltchinskii, "Local Rademacher complexities and oracle inequalities in risk minimization," Annals of Statistics, 34(6):2593-2656, 2006. https://doi.org/10.1214/009053606000001019
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ProbabilityStatistics·Captain: mikedeng1

High-Dimensional Statistics X: Graph Selection Consistency for Gaussian Graphical ModelsTextbook

Motivation

Many high-dimensional data sets — gene-expression profiles, sensor networks, social interactions — come with no natural ordering of variables, only pairwise dependencies whose structure is itself the object of interest. A graphical model encodes these dependencies as an undirected graph: vertices are variables, and edges mark direct (conditional) dependence. Recovering the graph from samples — graphical model selection — is a combinatorial problem masquerading as a statistical one: there are 2(d2)2^{\binom{d}{2}}2(2d​) candidate graphs on ddd vertices, far too many to search directly. For Gaussian data, however, graph structure is exactly the sparsity pattern of the inverse covariance (precision) matrix, which turns graph selection into ddd coupled sparse-regression problems — one per vertex — each of which the Lasso theory of Chapter 7 already knows how to solve. This mission formalizes the theorem, due to Meinshausen and Bühlmann (2006), that shows this reduction actually works: solving ddd independent Lasso problems and combining the results recovers the exact graph with high probability, at a sample complexity governed by the same kind of incoherence condition that governs Lasso support recovery itself.

Setting

An undirected graphical model on a finite vertex set VVV pairs a graph G=(V,E)G=(V,E)G=(V,E) with a random vector X=(Xj)j∈VX=(X_j)_{j\in V}X=(Xj​)j∈V​. Two equivalent structural properties connect XXX to GGG (Theorem 11.8, Hammersley-Clifford): XXX factorizes according to GGG if its density is a product of nonnegative functions, one per clique of GGG, each depending only on the variables in that clique (Definition 11.1); XXX is Markov with respect to GGG if, for every vertex cutset SSS separating VVV into disjoint pieces AAA and BBB, the sub-vectors XAX_AXA​ and XBX_BXB​ are conditionally independent given XSX_SXS​ (Definition 11.5). For a strictly positive density, these are the same condition.

For a zero-mean ddd-dimensional Gaussian vector with covariance Σ∗\Sigma^*Σ∗ and precision matrix Θ∗=(Σ∗)−1\Theta^*=(\Sigma^*)^{-1}Θ∗=(Σ∗)−1, the graph structure is exactly the support of Θ∗\Theta^*Θ∗: (j,k)∈E  ⟺  Θjk∗≠0(j,k)\in E \iff \Theta^*_{jk}\ne0(j,k)∈E⟺Θjk∗​=0. The neighborhood N(j):={k∣(j,k)∈E}N(j):=\{k\mid(j,k)\in E\}N(j):={k∣(j,k)∈E} of each vertex is itself a vertex cutset (separating {j}\{j\}{j} from everything else), so the conditional independence Xj⊥XV∖N+(j)∣XN(j)X_j\perp X_{V\setminus N^+(j)}\mid X_{N(j)}Xj​⊥XV∖N+(j)​∣XN(j)​ holds, and — by standard Gaussian conditioning — XjX_jXj​ decomposes as a linear function of XV∖{j}X_{V\setminus\{j\}}XV∖{j}​ plus independent Gaussian noise, with regression coefficients supported exactly on N(j)N(j)N(j). Neighborhood regression exploits this directly: for each vertex jjj, solve the Lasso

θ^j∈arg⁡min⁡θ∈Rd−1 12n∥Xj−X∖{j}θ∥22+λn∥θ∥1,\hat\theta_j \in \arg\min_{\theta\in\mathbb R^{d-1}}\ \frac1{2n}\|X_j-X_{\setminus\{j\}}\theta\|_2^2 +\lambda_n\|\theta\|_1,θ^j​∈argθ∈Rd−1min​ 2n1​∥Xj​−X∖{j}​θ∥22​+λn​∥θ∥1​,

read off N^(j):={k∣θ^j,k≠0}\hat N(j):=\{k\mid\hat\theta_{j,k}\ne0\}N^(j):={k∣θ^j,k​=0}, and combine the ddd per-vertex estimates into a single edge set via the OR rule ((j,k)∈E^OR(j,k)\in\hat E_{\mathrm{OR}}(j,k)∈E^OR​ iff k∈N^(j)k\in\hat N(j)k∈N^(j) or j∈N^(k)j\in\hat N(k)j∈N^(k)) or the more conservative AND rule (iff both hold). The relevant incoherence condition, analogous to Chapter 7's, is stated for a positive definite matrix Γ\GammaΓ and subset SSS: Γ\GammaΓ is α\alphaα-incoherent with respect to SSS if max⁡k∉S∥ΓkS(ΓSS)−1∥1≤1−α\max_{k\notin S}\|\Gamma_{kS}(\Gamma_{SS})^{-1}\|_1\le1-\alphamaxk∈/S​∥ΓkS​(ΓSS​)−1∥1​≤1−α.

Formalization targets

Theorem 11.8 (Hammersley-Clifford). Factorizes G p ↔ IsMarkov G X P for any strictly positive density ppp.

Theorem 11.12 (goal — graph selection consistency). Suppose for every jjj, Σ∖{j}∗\Sigma^*_{\setminus\{j\}}Σ∖{j}∗​ is α\alphaα-incoherent with respect to N(j)N(j)N(j), and ∣ ⁣∣ ⁣∣(ΣN(j),N(j)∗)−1∣ ⁣∣ ⁣∣∞≤b|\!|\!|(\Sigma^*_{N(j),N(j)})^{-1}|\!|\!|_\infty\le b∣∣∣(ΣN(j),N(j)∗​)−1∣∣∣∞​≤b. With λn=c01α(log⁡d/n+δ)\lambda_n=c_0\frac1\alpha(\sqrt{\log d/n}+\delta)λn​=c0​α1​(logd/n​+δ), the neighborhood-Lasso estimate combined via either rule satisfies, with probability at least 1−c2e−c3nmin⁡(δ2,1/m)1-c_2e^{-c_3n\min(\delta^2,1/m)}1−c2​e−c3​nmin(δ2,1/m):

E^⊆Eand∀(j,k): ∣Θjk∗∣≥7bλn  ⟹  (j,k)∈E^.\hat E\subseteq E \qquad\text{and}\qquad \forall (j,k):\ |\Theta^*_{jk}|\ge7b\lambda_n \implies (j,k)\in\hat E.E^⊆Eand∀(j,k): ∣Θjk∗​∣≥7bλn​⟹(j,k)∈E^.

Significance

Theorem 11.12 is the statistical justification for one of the two standard approaches to Gaussian graphical model selection (the other being the penalized-likelihood "graphical Lasso" of §11.2.1). Its significance is computational as much as statistical: rather than solving one ddd-dimensional penalized-likelihood problem, neighborhood regression solves ddd independent, embarrassingly parallel Lasso problems, each of dimension d−1d-1d−1 — a substantial practical advantage at scale, with (as this theorem shows) no loss in statistical guarantee. Formalizing it produces, for the first time on the platform, statement-level infrastructure for undirected graphical models (Hammersley-Clifford, the Markov property via vertex cutsets, neighborhood structure) together with the random-design analogue of the Lasso support-recovery machinery — a genuinely different technical regime from Chapter 7's fixed-design Lasso theory, since here the "design matrix" X∖{j}X_{\setminus\{j\}}X∖{j}​ is itself Gaussian and statistically coupled to the response XjX_jXj​ through the very covariance structure being estimated. As with the other missions in this series, only the statements are formalized here; the proofs (an extension of the primal-dual witness technique to random design, per the book's own proof sketch) are left as the draft goal for future proof contributions.

Difficulty

The proof of Theorem 7.21 (Chapter 7's Lasso support-recovery guarantee) is for a deterministic design matrix, with all randomness confined to the additive noise. Here the "design" X∖{j}X_{\setminus\{j\}}X∖{j}​ is itself random and Gaussian, and — critically — it is statistically dependent on the very quantity (N(j)N(j)N(j), encoded in Θ∗\Theta^*Θ∗'s support) the Lasso is trying to recover, since X∖{j}X_{\setminus\{j\}}X∖{j}​'s own covariance structure is exactly what the incoherence condition constrains. The naive approach of just conditioning on the realized design matrix and invoking Theorem 7.21 fails, because the deterministic-design incoherence condition would then need to hold for the sample covariance Γ=1nX∖{j}TX∖{j}\Gamma=\frac1n X_{\setminus\{j\}}^TX_{\setminus\{j\}}Γ=n1​X∖{j}T​X∖{j}​, not the population covariance Σ∖{j}∗\Sigma^*_{\setminus\{j\}}Σ∖{j}∗​ that is actually assumed — and controlling the gap between sample and population incoherence under the joint (not fixed) randomness of predictors and response is exactly the extra step the book's proof needs, handled via an extension of the primal-dual witness technique that tracks both sources of randomness together.

Formalization scope

The vertex set V is an arbitrary finite type; the covariate space for X is ℝ throughout (all variables jointly Gaussian). The Gaussian design is characterized via its one-dimensional projections (every linear combination is univariate Gaussian with the matching variance) rather than via Mathlib's multivariate-Gaussian machinery directly, to keep the definition self-contained. IsAlphaIncoherent's ambient index set is realized as a subset of the full vertex type rather than as a literal submatrix, since the book's condition never references an entry outside it. The theorem states the conclusion jointly for both the OR-rule and AND-rule estimated edge sets on one shared high-probability event, matching "based on either rule" literally rather than picking one. The trivializing formalization ruled out here is treating the neighborhood-Lasso estimate as a fixed-design Lasso problem (silently dropping the joint randomness of predictors and response) — every design realization in this formalization is the actual random vector Xdes i ω, not a deterministic parameter, and the Gaussian design hypothesis (IsIIDGaussianDesign) is stated over the same probability space Ω as the least-squares residual. Theorem 11.8 (Hammersley–Clifford) is formalized only for the continuous case — a random vector with a density with respect to Lebesgue measure — matching what the Gaussian goal (Theorem 11.12) actually needs; the book's own Definition 11.1 also permits a discrete (counting-measure) density, with the Ising model (Example 11.4) as a worked instance, which this mission does not cover. Contributions welcome: the graphical Lasso's own guarantees (Propositions 11.9, 11.10, deferred from this mission — see STATUS.md), and the proof of Theorem 11.12 itself via the primal-dual witness extension the book sketches.

Selected references

  • M. Wainwright, High-Dimensional Statistics: A Non-Asymptotic Viewpoint, Cambridge University Press, 2019, Chapter 11. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781108627771
  • N. Meinshausen and P. Bühlmann, "High-dimensional graphs and variable selection with the Lasso," Annals of Statistics, 34(3):1436-1462, 2006. https://doi.org/10.1214/009053606000000281
  • J. Hammersley and P. Clifford, "Markov fields on finite graphs and lattices," unpublished manuscript, 1971.
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ProbabilityRandom Matrix TheoryStatistics·Captain: mikedeng1

High-Dimensional Probability XI: Dvoretzky-Milman's TheoremTextbook

Motivation

A striking fact discovered by Dvoretzky in the 1960s (conjectured by Grothendieck, and sharpened into its modern quantitative form by Milman in 1971) is that every high-dimensional convex body, however irregular, contains a round slice: a random low-dimensional section (or projection) of any bounded convex set in Rn\mathbb R^nRn is, with high probability, close to a Euclidean ball — provided the dimension of the slice is small enough relative to a single geometric parameter of the body. This is remarkable because it holds for every bounded set, arbitrarily irregular; no special structure is assumed beyond boundedness. This chapter proves the theorem in its Gaussian form, as a culmination of every geometric and probabilistic tool the book develops: chaining and Dudley's inequality (Chapter 8), the matrix deviation inequality (Chapter 9), and Gaussian width and the stable dimension (Chapter 7) all combine into a single closing argument.

Setting

Fix a subset T⊆RnT\subseteq\mathbb R^nT⊆Rn. For a standard Gaussian vector g∼N(0,In)g\sim N(0,I_n)g∼N(0,In​), the Gaussian width of TTT is w(T):=Esup⁡x∈T⟨g,x⟩w(T) := \mathbb E\sup_{x\in T}\langle g,x\ranglew(T):=Esupx∈T​⟨g,x⟩ (Chapter 7), and the stable dimension of a bounded TTT is d(T):=w(T)2/diam(T)2d(T) := w(T)^2/\mathrm{diam}(T)^2d(T):=w(T)2/diam(T)2 up to an absolute constant factor (Definition 7.6.2) — a robust substitute for the ordinary linear-algebraic dimension of TTT, which can jump discontinuously under a small perturbation of TTT, unlike d(T)d(T)d(T).

An m×nm\times nm×n Gaussian random matrix with i.i.d. N(0,1)N(0,1)N(0,1) entries is a random matrix AAA each of whose mnmnmn entries is an independent standard normal random variable.

Formalization targets

Goal (Theorem 11.3.3, Dvoretzky-Milman's theorem, Gaussian form)

∃ c>0:m≤cε2d(T)  ⟹  P[(1−ε)B⊆conv(AT)⊆(1+ε)B]≥0.99\exists\,c>0:\quad m\le c\varepsilon^2 d(T) \;\Longrightarrow\; \mathbb P\bigl[(1-\varepsilon)B \subseteq \mathrm{conv}(AT) \subseteq (1+\varepsilon)B\bigr] \ge 0.99∃c>0:m≤cε2d(T)⟹P[(1−ε)B⊆conv(AT)⊆(1+ε)B]≥0.99

for every m×nm\times nm×n Gaussian random matrix AAA with i.i.d. N(0,1)N(0,1)N(0,1) entries, every bounded T⊆RnT\subseteq\mathbb R^nT⊆Rn containing the origin, and every ε∈(0,1)\varepsilon\in(0,1)ε∈(0,1), where BBB is the Euclidean ball of radius w(T)w(T)w(T) centered at the origin. The probability 0.990.990.99 is the book's own literal numeral, not a free parameter — this is the theorem the book actually states, not a family of theorems indexed by a confidence level.

Significance

Dvoretzky-Milman's theorem is one of the foundational results of the local theory of Banach spaces (asymptotic geometric analysis): it says every nnn-dimensional normed space contains an almost-Euclidean subspace of dimension proportional to (a geometric invariant closely related to) log⁡n\log nlogn in the worst case, and much larger for spaces whose unit ball is already well-behaved (the stable dimension of the cube [−1,1]n[-1,1]^n[−1,1]n, for instance, is proportional to nnn itself — Example 11.3.6). This underlies results throughout convex geometry, compressed sensing, and high-dimensional statistics wherever a random low-dimensional projection needs to be shown to preserve geometric structure. The book's own framing makes clear why this chapter is placed last: the theorem's proof is a genuine capstone, invoking Chevet's inequality (itself built from the matrix deviation inequality of Chapter 9, which is built from chaining, Chapter 8) as its main technical tool.

The theorem and its proof are classical (Milman 1971; this book's specific route via Chevet's inequality is a standard modern exposition). This mission formalizes the goal theorem's statement — including its two supporting geometric quantities, Gaussian width and stable dimension, and the notion of a Gaussian random matrix — as a complete, faithful target for a solver, in the book's own sub-namespace built for this chapter (no dependency here is reusable from an earlier chunk, since none of this book series' Chapter 7 or Chapter 9 definitions has yet been published).

Difficulty

The natural first idea — bound conv(AT)\mathrm{conv}(AT)conv(AT) directly using concentration of ∥Ax∥2\|Ax\|_2∥Ax∥2​ for each fixed x∈Tx\in Tx∈T — runs into exactly the uniform-supremum obstacle the whole book has been building tools to overcome: a bound that holds for one xxx at a time, even with a union bound over a net of TTT, does not obviously extend to the full convex hull without first controlling sup⁡x∈T∣⟨Ax,y⟩−w(T)∥y∥2∣\sup_{x\in T}|\langle Ax,y\rangle - w(T)\|y\|_2|supx∈T​∣⟨Ax,y⟩−w(T)∥y∥2​∣ uniformly over both x∈Tx\in Tx∈T and yyy on the unit sphere of the target space — a two-parameter supremum. The book's actual route goes through Chevet's inequality, itself proved using the matrix deviation inequality's own chaining-based argument, to control this two-sided supremum, and then converts the resulting inequality into the containment (1−ε)B⊆conv(AT)⊆(1+ε)B(1-\varepsilon)B\subseteq\mathrm{conv}(AT)\subseteq(1+\varepsilon)B(1−ε)B⊆conv(AT)⊆(1+ε)B via a support- function duality argument (a convex body is pinned down by its support function, so bounding sup⁡x∈T⟨Ax,y⟩\sup_{x\in T}\langle Ax,y\ranglesupx∈T​⟨Ax,y⟩ uniformly over yyy on the sphere is exactly what is needed).

Formalization scope

A is Ω → Matrix (Fin m) (Fin n) ℝ with an explicit IsGaussianMatrix hypothesis (entries i.i.d. N(0,1)N(0,1)N(0,1), formalized entrywise with joint independence). conv(AT) is convexHull ℝ of the image of T under A's mulVec, round-tripped through EuclideanSpace's continuous linear equivalence with the underlying function type. w(T) reuses this mission series' ExpSup/GaussianWidth convention (redefined locally, per the drafts-cannot-import-drafts rule, following the same ProbabilityTheory.stdGaussian-based realization of a standard Gaussian vector as 08-matrix-deviation). The stable dimension d(T)d(T)d(T) is formalized directly as w(T)2/diam(T)2w(T)^2/ \mathrm{diam}(T)^2w(T)2/diam(T)2 rather than via the book's literal (but only asymptotically equivalent, per Exercise 7.6.1) definition through a squared Gaussian width h(T−T)2h(T-T)^2h(T−T)2 — the goal theorem's own proof uses only the inequality direction of that equivalence, and the goal's hypothesis already carries an unpinned absolute constant that absorbs the equivalence constant, so this substitution preserves the theorem's exact truth content (see StableDimension's own doc-comment and MODERATION_NOTES.md for the full argument) rather than approximating it.

Ball-center deviation, disclosed. The book's printed theorem statement carries no hypothesis that TTT contains the origin; its proof opens by translating TTT so that it does ("Translating TTT if necessary, we can assume that TTT contains the origin"), and Remark 11.3.4 then confirms the ball is centered at the origin in that case. This mission states the WLOG-reduced case directly — adding 0∈T0\in T0∈T as an explicit hypothesis — rather than also formalizing the translation argument that recovers the fully general (untranslated) statement. This is disclosed as a genuine narrowing of the literal printed statement, though not of what the book's own proof actually establishes.

This mission covers Theorem 11.3.3 only, with no milestones: BRIEF.md explicitly instructs that if the chapter's full proof chain (general matrix deviation inequality, Chevet's inequality, random projections of sets — Theorems 11.1.5, 11.2.4, 11.3.1) proves too heavy for the session, milestones should be cut rather than the goal substituted. All three are left out, not approximated, given this chapter's five from-scratch definitions already needed for the goal's own statement. ExpSup, GaussianWidth, StableDimension and IsGaussianMatrix are reusable by any later development needing Gaussian width, the stable dimension, or a Gaussian random matrix. Solvers' contributions are welcome on the goal theorem itself and, beyond this mission's current scope, on the three named milestones.

Selected references

  • A. Dvoretzky, Some results on convex bodies and Banach spaces, Proc. Internat. Sympos. Linear Spaces (Jerusalem, 1960), 123–160.
  • V. D. Milman, A new proof of A. Dvoretzky's theorem on cross-sections of convex bodies, Funkcional. Anal. i Priložen. 5 (1971), 28–37.
  • R. Vershynin, High-Dimensional Probability: An Introduction with Applications in Data Science, Cambridge University Press, 2018, Chapter 11. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781108231596
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Harmonic AnalysisProbability·Captain: Elsie66

ClockRoPE: Random Fourier RotationsResearch Paper

Motivation

Transformer sequence models modulate attention scores by a function of the relative position between a query and a key: the attention logit between token mmm and token nnn is scaled by a fixed profile f(pm−pn)f(p_m - p_n)f(pm​−pn​). Realizing this modulation the naive way means evaluating fff once per pair (m,n)(m,n)(m,n) and materializing an L×LL\times LL×L adjustment over the whole sequence — quadratic in the sequence length LLL. Rotary Position Embedding (RoPE) Su et al. 2021 avoids this entirely: it rotates the query at position pmp_mpm​ and the key at position pnp_npn​ independently, each by an angle depending only on its own position, so that the pairwise quantity f(pm−pn)f(p_m-p_n)f(pm​−pn​) falls out of the dot product of the two separately rotated vectors — fff is never evaluated pairwise, and no L×LL\times LL×L matrix is ever built. This is what lets RoPE stay a linear, per-token preprocessing step compatible with efficient (sub-quadratic) attention implementations, rather than an O(L2)O(L^2)O(L2) modulation. The catch is that RoPE's specific log-linear frequency schedule bakes in one particular profile: a monotone, decaying fff. That schedule is a poor fit whenever the correlation structure of the data is not monotonically decaying with distance — the leading example being periodicity: in sequential recommendation, interactions separated by exactly one day or one week are more correlated than interactions separated by, say, half a day, and a decaying profile cannot express that "attention comes back" at the period.

Chen, Ainslie, Choromanski et al., ClockRoPE: Random Fourier Rotations for Temporal Routine Modeling (arXiv:2607.26369), ask a more general question first: which attention-modulation profiles fff can be realized at all by this same per-token, pairwise-iteration-free rotation trick — rotate each token once, on its own, and let the pairwise profile emerge from the dot product — and by what rotation-frequency schedule? Their answer is a random-features construction — sample the rotation frequencies from the kernel's own Fourier transform, rather than fixing them log-linearly — that realizes any continuous, normalized, positive-definite profile in expectation, with a quantified concentration rate, all while keeping the exact same per-token rotate-then-dot-product computation RoPE already uses. ClockRoPE is the periodic instance of this general theory, later deployed in a production-scale generative-retrieval system.

Setting

Fix an embedding dimension d=2nd = 2nd=2n and group a vector v∈Rdv \in \mathbb{R}^dv∈Rd into nnn consecutive feature pairs v(j)=(v2j,v2j+1)∈R2v^{(j)} = (v_{2j}, v_{2j+1}) \in \mathbb{R}^2v(j)=(v2j​,v2j+1​)∈R2 for j=0,…,n−1j = 0, \dots, n-1j=0,…,n−1. For an angle θ\thetaθ, let

R(θ)=(cos⁡θ−sin⁡θsin⁡θcos⁡θ)R(\theta) = \begin{pmatrix} \cos\theta & -\sin\theta \\ \sin\theta & \cos\theta \end{pmatrix}R(θ)=(cosθsinθ​−sinθcosθ​)

be the 2×22\times 22×2 (Givens) rotation matrix. A real kernel f:R→Rf : \mathbb{R} \to \mathbb{R}f:R→R is positive definite if for every finite family of points x1,…,xN∈Rx_1,\dots,x_N \in \mathbb{R}x1​,…,xN​∈R and complex coefficients c1,…,cNc_1,\dots,c_Nc1​,…,cN​, ∑i,jci‾cjf(xi−xj)\sum_{i,j} \overline{c_i} c_j f(x_i - x_j)∑i,j​ci​​cj​f(xi​−xj​) has nonnegative real part; it is normalized if f(0)=1f(0) = 1f(0)=1. When fff is also continuous and Lebesgue-integrable, its Fourier transform

τ(ξ)=∫Rf(x)e−i2πξx dx\tau(\xi) = \int_{\mathbb{R}} f(x) e^{-i2\pi\xi x}\,dxτ(ξ)=∫R​f(x)e−i2πξxdx

is (by Bochner's theorem) a genuine probability density on R\mathbb{R}R: this is the distribution the mission's rotation frequencies are sampled from.

Given a query qm∈R2nq_m \in \mathbb{R}^{2n}qm​∈R2n at position pmp_mpm​, a key kn∈R2nk_n \in \mathbb{R}^{2n}kn​∈R2n at position pnp_npn​, and nnn i.i.d. frequencies ξ0,…,ξn−1∼τ\xi_0, \dots, \xi_{n-1} \sim \tauξ0​,…,ξn−1​∼τ, the Random Fourier Rotation (RFR) estimator is

g^(qm,kn,pm,pn)=∑j=0n−1(R(2πξjpm) qm(j))⊤(R(2πξjpn) kn(j)).\hat g(q_m, k_n, p_m, p_n) = \sum_{j=0}^{n-1} \big(R(2\pi\xi_j p_m)\, q_m^{(j)}\big)^\top \big(R(2\pi\xi_j p_n)\, k_n^{(j)}\big).g^​(qm​,kn​,pm​,pn​)=j=0∑n−1​(R(2πξj​pm​)qm(j)​)⊤(R(2πξj​pn​)kn(j)​).

g^\hat gg^​ is exactly the modulated attention logit computed by rotating query/key feature pairs with per-pair, sampled RoPE frequencies — the same operation standard RoPE performs, but with ξj\xi_jξj​ drawn from τ\tauτ instead of fixed by a log-linear schedule.

Formalization targets

Goal — convergence of the RFR estimator (Proposition 3.2)

P ⁣(∣1ng^(qm,kn,pm,pn)−1n qm⊤knf(pm−pn)∣≥ϵ)≤2exp⁡ ⁣(−ϵ2(2n)28∑j=0n−1(∥qm(j)∥ ∥kn(j)∥)2)P\!\left(\left|\tfrac1n \hat g(q_m,k_n,p_m,p_n) - \tfrac1n\, q_m^\top k_n f(p_m-p_n)\right| \ge \epsilon\right) \le 2\exp\!\left(-\frac{\epsilon^2(2n)^2}{8\sum_{j=0}^{n-1}\big(\lVert q_m^{(j)}\rVert\, \lVert k_n^{(j)}\rVert\big)^2}\right)P(​n1​g^​(qm​,kn​,pm​,pn​)−n1​qm⊤​kn​f(pm​−pn​)​≥ϵ)≤2exp(−8∑j=0n−1​(∥qm(j)​∥∥kn(j)​∥)2ϵ2(2n)2​)

for every ϵ>0\epsilon > 0ϵ>0. This is the mission's central target: it upgrades the mean identity below into a quantitative, non-asymptotic guarantee that the sampled estimator is close to the target profile with high probability, at a rate that is exponential in the embedding dimension d=2nd = 2nd=2n.

Milestone — unbiasedness of the RFR estimator (Proposition 3.1)

Eξ0,…,ξn−1∼τ[g^(qm,kn,pm,pn)]=qm⊤kn f(pm−pn).\mathbb{E}_{\xi_0,\dots,\xi_{n-1}\sim\tau}\big[\hat g(q_m,k_n,p_m,p_n)\big] = q_m^\top k_n\, f(p_m-p_n).Eξ0​,…,ξn−1​∼τ​[g^​(qm​,kn​,pm​,pn​)]=qm⊤​kn​f(pm​−pn​).

The expectation identity that the concentration bound above sharpens; it is the feasibility half of the claim ("this construction is correct on average") that the convergence half needs as its starting point.

Milestone — periodic case via Herglotz's theorem (Corollary 3.3)

For a continuous, positive-definite, TTT-periodic fff with f(0)=1f(0)=1f(0)=1 and Fourier coefficients αk=1T∫0Tf(x)e−i2πkx/T dx\alpha_k = \frac1T \int_0^T f(x) e^{-i2\pi kx/T}\,dxαk​=T1​∫0T​f(x)e−i2πkx/Tdx,

αk≥0 for all k∈Z,∑k=−∞∞αk=f(0)=1.\alpha_k \ge 0 \text{ for all } k \in \mathbb{Z}, \qquad \sum_{k=-\infty}^{\infty} \alpha_k = f(0) = 1.αk​≥0 for all k∈Z,k=−∞∑∞​αk​=f(0)=1.

The periodic specialization needed to apply the goal and first milestone with a discrete frequency distribution over harmonics k/Tk/Tk/T — the regime ClockRoPE actually deploys, since daily/weekly routines are periodic rather than merely decaying.

Significance

The result gives a general recipe — sample, don't hand-design — for turning any admissible attention-modulation profile into a RoPE-compatible rotation schedule, with a concentration guarantee that says how many feature pairs are needed before the sampled schedule reliably approximates the target profile. Crucially, the recipe changes only which frequencies the per-token rotation uses — it never touches the computational shape of RoPE itself: each query and key is still rotated once, independently, by an angle depending only on its own position, and the target pairwise profile f(pm−pn)f(p_m-p_n)f(pm​−pn​) is still recovered purely from the dot product of the two rotated vectors. So realizing an arbitrary positive-definite fff this way costs exactly what realizing RoPE's own log-linear profile costs — linear in the sequence length, with no pairwise evaluation of fff and no L×LL\times LL×L matrix ever materialized — rather than the quadratic cost a direct, per-pair implementation of an arbitrary modulation function would require. This subsumes standard RoPE's log-linear schedule as one instance and explains, via the periodic corollary, why a schedule built from the kernel's own spectrum (rather than an arbitrary log-linear one) is the right way to encode periodicity: nothing about the construction, or its efficiency, is specific to decay. The paper reports this translated into measured gains in a production-scale generative-retrieval system, which is unusual weight of practical evidence behind a Bochner/Herglotz-style spectral argument.

At the time of writing, none of these three results have a machine-checked proof; this mission asks for the first formalization of all three, together with the shared scaffolding (feature-pair extraction, the rotation estimator, and the notion of a positive-definite kernel) they are stated over.

Difficulty

The natural first attempt at the concentration bound is a direct union bound or a naive variance argument, but the estimator g^\hat gg^​ is a sum of nnn terms that are each bounded (each rotated pair lies on a fixed-radius circle) rather than governed by a variance bound that shrinks with nnn under a fixed frequency; the source proof instead applies McDiarmid's bounded-differences inequality, treating each sampled frequency ξj\xi_jξj​ as one coordinate of the input and bounding the one-coordinate change in g^\hat gg^​ by 2∥qm(j)∥∥kn(j)∥2\lVert q_m^{(j)}\rVert\lVert k_n^{(j)}\rVert2∥qm(j)​∥∥kn(j)​∥ via the maximal distance between two points on the unit circle — not by directly bounding a variance term. Establishing Proposition 3.1 itself already requires care: it requires justifying that τ\tauτ, defined purely as an integral transform of fff, is in fact a legitimate probability density (Bochner's theorem), and then a real/complex bookkeeping argument identifying the real inner product of rotated pairs with the real part of a product of complex exponentials.

Formalization scope

The mission works over the reals and represents feature pairs as functions Fin (2 * n) → ℝ sliced into Fin n-indexed pairs, matching the "nnn feature pairs, dimension d=2nd = 2nd=2n" convention used throughout; 2×22\times22×2 rotations are ordinary Matrix (Fin 2) (Fin 2) ℝ values built with Matrix.mulVec/Matrix.dotProduct, and expectation over i.i.d. τ\tauτ-distributed frequencies is formalized as integration against the product measure MeasureTheory.Measure.pi of n independent copies of the measure with density τ\tauτ (MeasureTheory.Measure.withDensity) — this is mathematically equivalent to, and more directly usable in Lean than, introducing an abstract probability space with named i.i.d. random variables.

Since a general continuous positive-definite kernel need not have an integrable Fourier transform (the periodic case in Corollary 3.3 is exactly the counterexample: its "Fourier transform" is a discrete measure, not a density) — the goal and first milestone add Integrable f as an explicit hypothesis beyond what the paper states in prose, so that τ\tauτ is genuinely a density rather than a junk value. This is not a strengthening of the target profiles the paper cares about in practice (Gaussian, Laplace, and the cosine/Gaussian priors used by ClockRoPE itself are all integrable) and mirrors the paper's own split between the density case (Propositions 3.1–3.2) and the discrete, purely-periodic case (Corollary 3.3). A formalization that dropped this hypothesis and instead let the Fourier integral silently evaluate to Lean's junk value (0 for non-integrable integrands) would make the goal statement possible to "prove" vacuously and must be avoided.

Definitions needed: a positive-definite-kernel predicate, the real-valued Fourier transform of a kernel, feature-pair extraction, the 2×22\times22×2 rotation matrix, and the RFR estimator itself — all reusable by any future mission formalizing RoPE-family positional encodings (e.g. STRING, nD-RoPE) or other random-Fourier-feature results. McDiarmid's inequality, if not already in Mathlib in the needed form, is itself a independently reusable contribution.

Selected references

  • Yiwen Chen, Joshua Ainslie, Krzysztof Choromanski, Xiang Gao, Su-Lin Wu, Yiping Yuan, Qian Sun, ClockRoPE: Random Fourier Rotations for Temporal Routine Modeling, 2026. arXiv:2607.26369
  • Jianlin Su, Yu Lu, Shengfeng Pan, Ahmed Murtadha, Bo Wen, Yunfeng Liu, RoFormer: Enhanced Transformer with Rotary Position Embedding, arXiv, 2021. arXiv:2104.09864
  • Ali Rahimi, Benjamin Recht, Random Features for Large-Scale Kernel Machines, NeurIPS, 2007.
  • Salomon Bochner, Monotone Funktionen, Stieltjessche Integrale und harmonische Analyse, Springer, 1933.
  • Gustav Herglotz, Über Potenzreihen mit positivem, reellem Teil im Einheitskreis, Berichte über die Verhandlungen der Königlich Sächsischen Gesellschaft der Wissenschaften zu Leipzig, 1911.
5 thms1 active userReviewed
🏆Completed
Number Theory·Captain: raver1975

The Alethean CatalogResearch Paper

A.L.E.T.H.E.A.N. — the engine behind this corpus

This mission curates the formalized output of Alethean — an Autonomous Logic Engine for Theorem Hunting, Exploration, And Navigation (alethean.org). Alethean autonomously generates research directions, develops them into research papers, and formalizes their results in Lean 4 — an "ever-expanding registry of absolute mathematical truths," built with the Aristotle reasoning engine. "The unconcealed truth between conjecture and proof."

The corpus's public home is the Alethean Lean 4 Catalog — the central registry of formalized theorems across the ecosystem, browsable as research packages (each with its article, research paper, interactive view, future directions, and Lean 4 proof files). This mission is the platform-side mirror of that registry: 2,799 definition bundles and 7,517 theorems compiled and verified against the pinned toolchain (Lean v4.30.0, Mathlib c5ea003), spanning analytic number theory, combinatorics, probability, information theory, quantum information, tropical algebra, and machine-learning theory.

What is being asked

The corpus arrives fully proved. The goal theorem is the corpus's universal error-detection bound for random checksums — the capstone of the Almost-Lossless compression thread (Compression Beyond the Pigeonhole Bound): appending an independent random checksum makes the probability of silent corruption at most 1/K1/K1/K, uniformly over all source strings and all inner decoders. The milestones are capstone theorems from across the corpus: sphere-packing and VC-dimension bounds, second moments of central LLL-values, tropical Arrow-type impossibility, sums-of-three-cubes obstructions, and more.

For solvers

Every milestone is a verified platform theorem: study the proofs, reuse them as imported lemmas, or rebuild them from first principles. The interesting open work is extension: the corpus's research-direction papers (browsable at alethean.org under Future Directions) state quantitative sharpenings — explicit constants, wider parameter ranges — that are not yet formalized. Pick a direction, formalize its statement, and the verification pipeline does the rest.

Provenance

  • Source repository: github.com/raver1975/lean (commit 53c2925a02)
  • Public registry: alethean.org
  • Toolchain: Lean v4.30.0, Mathlib c5ea00351c28e24afc9f0f84379aa41082b1188f
  • All uploaded items are tagged aether-catalog.
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ProbabilityStatistics·Captain: willma

Don't Label Twice: Game, Set, MatchOpen Problem

The problem

(a) In a tennis match, you are the favorite, and win each point independently with probability q∈(1/2,1)q\in(1/2,1)q∈(1/2,1). Let n,mn,mn,m be odd positive integers greater than 111. You have the choice between playing a best-of-nmnmnm (i.e., you play nmnmnm points and whoever wins the majority of points wins the match), or a best-of-nnn of best-of-mmm's (i.e., the match is won by winning the majority of nnn "sets", and each "set" is won by winning the majority of mmm points). Prove that your probability of winning the match is strictly greater by playing the best-of-nmnmnm.

(b) We now consider two generalizations: m1,…,mkm_1,\ldots,m_km1​,…,mk​ are odd positive integers, while nnn is any positive integer, with all integers being greater than 111. You have the choice between playing a best-of-nm1⋯mknm_1\cdots m_knm1​⋯mk​, or a best-of-nnn of "sets", which are best-of-m1m_1m1​'s of "games", …, which are best-of-mkm_kmk​'s of "points". In both cases, now that nnn may be even, it is possible for the players to tie, in which case the match winner is determined by an independent fair coin. Prove again that your probability of winning the match is strictly greater by playing the best-of-nm1⋯mknm_1\cdots m_knm1​⋯mk​.

(c) We consider a further generalization where each completed "set" counts toward the match score in an independently random way:

  • with probability aaa, the winner gains 111 in the match score, as usual;
  • with probability bbb, the set is ignored and does not count toward the match score;
  • with probability ccc, the loser gains 111 in the match score;

with a+b+c=1a+b+c=1a+b+c=1 and a>ca>ca>c, so players are still incentivized to win sets (previously we had a=1a=1a=1, b=c=0b=c=0b=c=0). This random scoring rule is applied once per completed set, at the outermost layer only: the games and points inside a set are decided by plain majorities, with no randomness, and only the set's final result is scored. If you choose to play the best-of-nm1⋯mknm_1\cdots m_knm1​⋯mk​, then each individual point counts as a set and is subject to the same randomness with probabilities a,b,ca,b,ca,b,c. Prove that your probability of winning the match is still strictly greater by playing the best-of-nm1⋯mknm_1\cdots m_knm1​⋯mk​ (the fair-coin-on-ties convention continues).

(d) Continue from part (c), but change the fair-coin-on-ties convention so that you only win the match if you have a strictly greater match score than your opponent. Assuming b≥1/2b\ge1/2b≥1/2, prove that your probability of winning the match is strictly greater by playing the best-of-nm1⋯mknm_1\cdots m_knm1​⋯mk​.

Source and connection to Dorner–Hardt

Florian E. Dorner and Moritz Hardt, Don't Label Twice: Quantity Beats Quality when Comparing Binary Classifiers on a Budget, ICML 2024. arXiv:2402.02249 (v3, 8 April 2026).

The paper asks how to spend a fixed budget of noisy crowdworker labels when comparing two binary classifiers: one label each for many data points, or several labels per data point aggregated by majority vote. It proves, via Cramér's theorem, that one label each is asymptotically optimal, and states the finite-sample version as an open conjecture (Section 5, Conjecture 1), still open in the April 2026 revision. Its Section 3 displays the finite-sample inequality for the independent, homogeneous-label case and verifies it numerically over about five billion parameter settings.

Part (d) of this mission with one level of sets is that Section 3 inequality in tennis language. A point is a single crowdworker label being correct (qqq is the label accuracy); a set is a data point, whose test label is the majority of its mmm labels; and the scoring rule is what the two classifiers do with that label. Writing ppp for the worse classifier's accuracy and p+ϵp+\epsilonp+ϵ for the better one's, a set is scored to its winner when the better classifier alone matches the test label, ignored when the two classifiers agree, and scored to its loser when the worse classifier alone matches:

a=(p+ϵ)(1−p),c=p(1−p−ϵ),b=1−a−c,a=(p+\epsilon)(1-p),\qquad c=p(1-p-\epsilon),\qquad b=1-a-c,a=(p+ϵ)(1−p),c=p(1−p−ϵ),b=1−a−c,

so that a−c=ϵ>0a-c=\epsilon>0a−c=ϵ>0, and b≥1/2b\ge1/2b≥1/2 always holds because two classifiers of accuracy at least 1/21/21/2 agree on at least half the data. Substituting into the paper's Proposition 1 recovers its gap-indicator probabilities exactly: Pr⁡(+1)=qϵ+p(1−p−ϵ)\Pr(+1)=q\epsilon+p(1-p-\epsilon)Pr(+1)=qϵ+p(1−p−ϵ), Pr⁡(−1)=(1−q)ϵ+p(1−p−ϵ)\Pr(-1)=(1-q)\epsilon+p(1-p-\epsilon)Pr(−1)=(1−q)ϵ+p(1−p−ϵ). The paper's inequality also allows n=1n=1n=1 and q=1q=1q=1, which parts (c)–(d) exclude only because the inequality can fail to be strict at b=0b=0b=0 there; for b≥1/2b\ge1/2b≥1/2 the same argument covers those edge cases. The paper's Conjecture 1 as literally stated concerns a correlated-error setting (its Section 3.2) and is not claimed here.

Parts (a)–(c) go beyond the paper's setting: arbitrary nesting depth, a fair-coin tie rule, and no constraint on the ignore rate bbb. The hypothesis b≥1/2b\ge1/2b≥1/2 in part (d) cannot be dropped: with one level, (a,b,c)=(0.9,0.1,0)(a,b,c)=(0.9,0.1,0)(a,b,c)=(0.9,0.1,0), q=0.6q=0.6q=0.6, m=3m=3m=3, n=1n=1n=1, the single best-of-3 finishes strictly ahead with probability 0.58320.58320.5832 while three single points do so with probability 0.57610.57610.5761.

Timeline

  • Feb 2024 — arXiv v1; ICML 2024. Asymptotic theorem via Cramér; finite-sample statement conjectured; ~5·10⁹-configuration numerical sweep.
  • Oct 2024 — arXiv v2.
  • Apr 2026 — arXiv v3; conjecture still stated as open.
  • Aug 2026 — private proof of the Section 3 inequality (strict win, b≥1/2b\ge1/2b≥1/2, one level) via exponential tilting of the tie probability.
  • Sep 2026 — private proof of the fair-coin version with no constraint on bbb (Bernstein degree elevation and a hypergeometric parity argument), then of the full four-part statement via a pairing lemma for player-symmetric rules. This mission formalizes that proof.

Conventions in the formal statement

"Greater than 111" is read as n≥2n\ge2n≥2 and each mi≥3m_i\ge3mi​≥3 odd; the list of set sizes in (b)–(d) is nonempty. Laws are functions Z→R\mathbb Z\to\mathbb RZ→R and every probability is a finite sum — no measure theory. The goal theorem is the conjunction of the four parts.

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