The chain's conditional expectation given the past is one step of the kernel
ProvedMarkovChainCLT.condExp_next_coordThe Markov property as an identity of conditional expectations. For a bounded measurable and every ,
where and the conditioning -algebra is the pullback of the Borel structure on the first coordinates. This holds for every initial distribution.
What it is for. This is the hypothesis that turns Poisson-equation bookkeeping into a genuine martingale. If solves then
satisfies , i.e. is a martingale difference sequence for the natural filtration of the chain — exactly the input required by every martingale central limit theorem. It also gives orthogonality, for , hence , the linear-in- variance bound behind the law of large numbers for the quadratic variation.
Proof. The candidate is measurable with respect to — the coordinate map factors through the restriction to the first coordinates, and is measurable because integration against a kernel preserves measurability. It is integrable, being bounded by . Finally, for every event in the conditioning -algebra the two set integrals agree,
which is the Markov property in integral form. The standard characterization of conditional expectation — a measurable, integrable function with the correct set integrals is the conditional expectation — then gives the claim.
import Definitions.Def_MarkovChainPathMeasure import Definitions.Def_MarkovIterKernel import Mathlib.MeasureTheory.Function.ConditionalExpectation.Real import Mathlib.MeasureTheory.Integral.Bochner.Set open Filter Finset Function MeasurableEquiv MeasurableSpace MeasureTheory Preorder ProbabilityTheory open MarkovChainCLT open scoped ENNReal NNReal Topology
theorem MarkovChainCLT.condExp_next_coord {X : Type*} [MeasurableSpace X]
(P : Kernel X X) [IsMarkovKernel P] (lam : Measure X) [IsProbabilityMeasure lam]
(h : X → ℝ) (hh : Measurable h) (B : ℝ) (hB : ∀ x, |h x| ≤ B) (k : ℕ) :
(fun ω : ℕ → X => ∫ y, h y ∂(P (ω k)))
=ᵐ[chainMeasure P lam] (chainMeasure P lam)[fun ω : ℕ → X => h (ω (k + 1)) |
MeasurableSpace.comap (frestrictLe (π := fun _ : ℕ => X) k) inferInstance] := by sorry