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The chain's conditional expectation given the past is one step of the kernel

Proved
MarkovChainCLT.condExp_next_coord

by LukeBernese · Aug 15, 2026 · Mathlib c5ea003 (Lean v4.30.0)

conditional-expectationmarkov-chainmartingalepath-spaceprobability

The Markov property as an identity of conditional expectations. For a bounded measurable hhh and every kkk,

E[h(Xk+1) ∣ σ(X0,…,Xk)]  =  (Ph)(Xk)almost surely,\mathbb E\bigl[h(X_{k+1}) \,\big|\, \sigma(X_0,\dots,X_k)\bigr] \;=\; (Ph)(X_k) \qquad\text{almost surely},E[h(Xk+1​)​σ(X0​,…,Xk​)]=(Ph)(Xk​)almost surely,

where (Ph)(x)=∫h dP(x,⋅)(Ph)(x) = \int h\,dP(x,\cdot)(Ph)(x)=∫hdP(x,⋅) and the conditioning σ\sigmaσ-algebra is the pullback of the Borel structure on the first k+1k+1k+1 coordinates. This holds for every initial distribution.

What it is for. This is the hypothesis that turns Poisson-equation bookkeeping into a genuine martingale. If ggg solves g−Pg=φ−Eπφg - Pg = \varphi - \mathbb E_\pi\varphig−Pg=φ−Eπ​φ then

Dk  =  g(Xk+1)−(Pg)(Xk)D_k \;=\; g(X_{k+1}) - (Pg)(X_k)Dk​=g(Xk+1​)−(Pg)(Xk​)

satisfies E[Dk∣σ(X0,…,Xk)]=0\mathbb E[D_k \mid \sigma(X_0,\dots,X_k)] = 0E[Dk​∣σ(X0​,…,Xk​)]=0, i.e. (Dk)(D_k)(Dk​) is a martingale difference sequence for the natural filtration of the chain — exactly the input required by every martingale central limit theorem. It also gives orthogonality, E[DjDk]=0\mathbb E[D_jD_k] = 0E[Dj​Dk​]=0 for j≠kj\ne kj=k, hence Var⁡(∑k<nDk)=∑k<nEDk2\operatorname{Var}\bigl(\sum_{k<n}D_k\bigr) = \sum_{k<n}\mathbb E D_k^2Var(∑k<n​Dk​)=∑k<n​EDk2​, the linear-in-nnn variance bound behind the law of large numbers for the quadratic variation.

Proof. The candidate (Ph)(Xk)(Ph)(X_k)(Ph)(Xk​) is measurable with respect to σ(X0,…,Xk)\sigma(X_0,\dots,X_k)σ(X0​,…,Xk​) — the coordinate map ω↦ωk\omega\mapsto\omega_kω↦ωk​ factors through the restriction to the first k+1k+1k+1 coordinates, and x↦∫h dP(x,⋅)x\mapsto\int h\,dP(x,\cdot)x↦∫hdP(x,⋅) is measurable because integration against a kernel preserves measurability. It is integrable, being bounded by ∥h∥∞\|h\|_\infty∥h∥∞​. Finally, for every event AAA in the conditioning σ\sigmaσ-algebra the two set integrals agree,

∫Ah(Xk+1) dP  =  ∫A(Ph)(Xk) dP,\int_A h(X_{k+1})\,d\mathbb P \;=\; \int_A (Ph)(X_k)\,d\mathbb P,∫A​h(Xk+1​)dP=∫A​(Ph)(Xk​)dP,

which is the Markov property in integral form. The standard characterization of conditional expectation — a measurable, integrable function with the correct set integrals is the conditional expectation — then gives the claim.

Preamble
import Definitions.Def_MarkovChainPathMeasure
import Definitions.Def_MarkovIterKernel
import Mathlib.MeasureTheory.Function.ConditionalExpectation.Real
import Mathlib.MeasureTheory.Integral.Bochner.Set

open Filter Finset Function MeasurableEquiv MeasurableSpace MeasureTheory Preorder
  ProbabilityTheory
open MarkovChainCLT
open scoped ENNReal NNReal Topology
Formal statement
theorem MarkovChainCLT.condExp_next_coord {X : Type*} [MeasurableSpace X]
    (P : Kernel X X) [IsMarkovKernel P] (lam : Measure X) [IsProbabilityMeasure lam]
    (h : X → ℝ) (hh : Measurable h) (B : ℝ) (hB : ∀ x, |h x| ≤ B) (k : ℕ) :
    (fun ω : ℕ → X => ∫ y, h y ∂(P (ω k)))
      =ᵐ[chainMeasure P lam] (chainMeasure P lam)[fun ω : ℕ → X => h (ω (k + 1)) |
        MeasurableSpace.comap (frestrictLe (π := fun _ : ℕ => X) k) inferInstance] := by sorry
Source
J. Neveu, Mathematical Foundations of the Calculus of Probability, Holden-Day 1965, Ch. V; M. I. Gordin and B. A. Lifsic, "The central limit theorem for stationary Markov processes", Soviet Math. Dokl. 19 (1978) 392-394; S. P. Meyn and R. L. Tweedie, Markov Chains and Stochastic Stability, 2nd ed., Cambridge 2009, Ch. 17.

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