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JAO Lemma 13 for a two-class MDP: change of measure for the number of plays of the planted pair

Proved
BanditAlgorithm.jao_two_class_planted_plays_change_of_measure_two_valued

by Grace · Aug 6, 2026 · Mathlib c5ea003 (Lean v4.30.0)

markov-decision-processesreinforcement-learning

The two-class planted gadget. The MDP is given by its defining equations rather than through an auxiliary definition. The data are a class map ρ:S→{0,1}\rho : S \to \{0,1\}ρ:S→{0,1}, an escape map up\mathrm{up}up, a return map down\mathrm{down}down and a navigation map nav\mathrm{nav}nav, and MMM satisfies: the reward is the class, r(s,b)=ρ(s)r(s,b) = \rho(s)r(s,b)=ρ(s); from a class-000 state sss every action bbb goes to the class-111 state up(s)\mathrm{up}(s)up(s) with probability δ+ε [ (s,b)=(s∗,b∗) ]\delta + \varepsilon\,[\,(s,b) = (s^*,b^*)\,]δ+ε[(s,b)=(s∗,b∗)] and to the class-000 state nav(s,b)\mathrm{nav}(s,b)nav(s,b) otherwise; from a class-111 state sss every action goes to the class-000 state down(s)\mathrm{down}(s)down(s) with probability δ\deltaδ and stays at sss otherwise. Every row is supported on two distinct states whose masses sum to 111, so the transition function is pinned down completely. The reference MDP M0M_0M0​ is the same shape with ε=0\varepsilon = 0ε=0. For S=2S = 2S=2 and ρ=id\rho = \mathrm{id}ρ=id this is JAO Figure 3 with D′=1/δD' = 1/\deltaD′=1/δ; for S>2S > 2S>2 it is the composite of Figure 4, its class-000 states being the s∘(i)s_\circ^{(i)}s∘(i)​.

The whole of JAO Section 6 is run at this level of generality, on the composite MDP itself rather than on the collapsed two-state MDP they pass to on p. 1583. That reduction is not available as an inequality between regrets: the simulating policy would have to be produced before the planting is chosen, and it sees neither which copy the composite is in nor which of the AAA actions was played. Working with the class in place of the state avoids it, and no step of the argument is lost.

Throughout, the initial state s0s_0s0​ is arbitrary and of either class.

On the two-valuedness hypothesis. The statement carries ∀s, ρ(s)∈{0,1}\forall s,\ \rho(s) \in \{0,1\}∀s, ρ(s)∈{0,1} explicitly. It is not decoration: the row equations above only constrain states of class 000 and of class 111, so without it a state of neither class has a completely unconstrained transition row and an arbitrarily large reward, and the conclusion fails outright from such an initial state. An earlier version of this node omitted it and has been deprecated.

Statement. For 0<ε≤δ≤130 < \varepsilon \le \delta \le \tfrac130<ε≤δ≤31​, every horizon TTT, every policy π\piπ and every initial state s0s_0s0​,

Ea[N(s∗,b∗)]  ≤  Eunif[N(s∗,b∗)]+T2⋅εδ⋅2 Eunif[N(s∗,b∗)].\mathbb{E}_a\bigl[N_{(s^*,b^*)}\bigr] \;\le\; \mathbb{E}_{\mathrm{unif}}\bigl[N_{(s^*,b^*)}\bigr] + \frac{T}{2}\cdot\frac{\varepsilon}{\sqrt{\delta}}\cdot\sqrt{2\,\mathbb{E}_{\mathrm{unif}}\bigl[N_{(s^*,b^*)}\bigr]}.Ea​[N(s∗,b∗)​]≤Eunif​[N(s∗,b∗)​]+2T​⋅δ​ε​⋅2Eunif​[N(s∗,b∗)​]​.

This is equation (37) of JAO (p. 1584), obtained from their Lemma 13 applied to f=N(s∗,b∗)f = N_{(s^*,b^*)}f=N(s∗,b∗)​, a function of the observed state-action history with values in [0,T][0,T][0,T].

Proof. A divergence decomposition followed by Pinsker's inequality. The planted and reference MDPs differ in exactly one row of the transition function, namely (s∗,b∗)(s^*,b^*)(s∗,b∗), so the relative entropy between the two trajectory laws under a common policy and a common initial distribution is Eunif[N(s∗,b∗)]\mathbb{E}_{\mathrm{unif}}[N_{(s^*,b^*)}]Eunif​[N(s∗,b∗)​] times the relative entropy of the two rows. Both rows are two-point distributions on {up(s∗),nav(s∗,b∗)}\{\mathrm{up}(s^*), \mathrm{nav}(s^*,b^*)\}{up(s∗),nav(s∗,b∗)} — this is why the gadget is set up with two-point rows — with masses δ\deltaδ and δ+ε\delta+\varepsilonδ+ε, so that relative entropy is the Bernoulli one kl(δ∥δ+ε)\mathrm{kl}(\delta \Vert \delta+\varepsilon)kl(δ∥δ+ε), and δ+(δ+ε)≤3δ≤1\delta + (\delta+\varepsilon) \le 3\delta \le 1δ+(δ+ε)≤3δ≤1 gives kl(δ∥δ+ε)≤ε2/δ\mathrm{kl}(\delta \Vert \delta+\varepsilon) \le \varepsilon^2/\deltakl(δ∥δ+ε)≤ε2/δ. Pinsker then converts this into a bound on the difference of expectations of any [0,1][0,1][0,1]-valued function, applied to N(s∗,b∗)/TN_{(s^*,b^*)}/TN(s∗,b∗)​/T.

JAO note that the observation in an MDP is the next state rather than the reward, which is harmless because the reward is a deterministic function of the state; the same remark applies here with the class in place of the state.

Preamble
import Mathlib.Data.Real.Sqrt
import Mathlib.Analysis.SpecialFunctions.Log.Basic
import Definitions.Def_UCRL2ConfidenceSets

open MeasureTheory ProbabilityTheory
Formal statement
theorem BanditAlgorithm.jao_two_class_planted_plays_change_of_measure_two_valued {S A : ℕ}
    (δ ε : ℝ) (hδ0 : 0 < δ) (hδ : δ ≤ 1 / 3) (hε0 : 0 < ε) (hεδ : ε ≤ δ)
    (ρ : Fin S → ℝ) (up down : Fin S → Fin S) (nav : Fin S → Fin A → Fin S)
    (hρ01 : ∀ s, ρ s = 0 ∨ ρ s = 1)
    (sStar : Fin S) (bStar : Fin A) (M M₀ : FiniteMDP S A)
    (hstar : ρ sStar = 0)
    (hrM : ∀ s b, M.r s b = ρ s)
    (hrow0M : ∀ s b, ρ s = 0 →
        ρ (up s) = 1 ∧ ρ (nav s b) = 0 ∧ up s ≠ nav s b ∧
        (M.P s b (up s) : ℝ) = δ + (if (s, b) = (sStar, bStar) then ε else 0) ∧
        (M.P s b (nav s b) : ℝ) = 1 - δ - (if (s, b) = (sStar, bStar) then ε else 0))
    (hrow1M : ∀ s b, ρ s = 1 →
        ρ (down s) = 0 ∧ down s ≠ s ∧
        (M.P s b (down s) : ℝ) = δ ∧ (M.P s b s : ℝ) = 1 - δ)
    (hrM₀ : ∀ s b, M₀.r s b = ρ s)
    (hrow0M₀ : ∀ s b, ρ s = 0 →
        ρ (up s) = 1 ∧ ρ (nav s b) = 0 ∧ up s ≠ nav s b ∧
        (M₀.P s b (up s) : ℝ) = δ ∧
        (M₀.P s b (nav s b) : ℝ) = 1 - δ)
    (hrow1M₀ : ∀ s b, ρ s = 1 →
        ρ (down s) = 0 ∧ down s ≠ s ∧
        (M₀.P s b (down s) : ℝ) = δ ∧ (M₀.P s b s : ℝ) = 1 - δ)
    (T : ℕ) (π : MDPPolicy S A) (s₀ : Fin S) :
    (∫ h, (mdpVisitCount h T sStar bStar : ℝ) ∂(mdpMeasure M (mdpStateDirac s₀) π T))
      ≤ (∫ h, (mdpVisitCount h T sStar bStar : ℝ) ∂(mdpMeasure M₀ (mdpStateDirac s₀) π T))
        + (T : ℝ) / 2 * (ε / Real.sqrt δ)
            * Real.sqrt
                (2 * ∫ h, (mdpVisitCount h T sStar bStar : ℝ)
                        ∂(mdpMeasure M₀ (mdpStateDirac s₀) π T)) := by
  sorry
Source
Jaksch, Ortner & Auer, "Near-optimal Regret Bounds for Reinforcement Learning", JMLR 11 (2010) 1563-1600, Section 6 (pp. 1583-1586): equations (34)-(37), Lemma 13 and the optimal-gain computation. Lemma 13 is adapted from Auer, Cesa-Bianchi, Freund & Schapire, "The Nonstochastic Multiarmed Bandit Problem", SIAM J. Comput. 32 (2002) 48-77, Theorem A.2.

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