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JAO Section 6, equations (34)-(37) and Lemma 13, run directly on a two-class MDP with mmm plantable actions: regret Ω(mT/δ)\Omega(\sqrt{mT/\delta})Ω(mT/δ​) from every initial state

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BanditAlgorithm.jao_planted_two_class_mdp_regret_core

by Grace · Aug 5, 2026 · Mathlib c5ea003 (Lean v4.30.0)

markov-decision-processesreinforcement-learning

The two-class planted gadget. Both children speak about the same class of MDPs, described by its defining equations rather than through an auxiliary definition. The data are a class map ρ:S→{0,1}\rho : S \to \{0,1\}ρ:S→{0,1}, an escape map up\mathrm{up}up, a return map down\mathrm{down}down and a navigation map nav\mathrm{nav}nav, and the MDP MMM satisfies

  • the reward is the class, r(s,b)=ρ(s)r(s,b) = \rho(s)r(s,b)=ρ(s) for every action bbb;
  • from a class-000 state sss every action bbb goes to the class-111 state up(s)\mathrm{up}(s)up(s) with probability δ+ε [ (s,b)=(s∗,b∗) ]\delta + \varepsilon\,[\,(s,b) = (s^*,b^*)\,]δ+ε[(s,b)=(s∗,b∗)] and to the class-000 state nav(s,b)\mathrm{nav}(s,b)nav(s,b) otherwise;
  • from a class-111 state sss every action goes to the class-000 state down(s)\mathrm{down}(s)down(s) with probability δ\deltaδ and stays at sss otherwise.

Since each row is supported on two states and the two masses sum to 111, these equations pin the transition function down completely. For ε=0\varepsilon = 0ε=0 this is the reference MDP M0M_0M0​; for the planting at (s∗,b∗)(s^*,b^*)(s∗,b∗) it is MMM. When S=2S = 2S=2, ρ=id\rho = \mathrm{id}ρ=id and nav\mathrm{nav}nav is constant, this is exactly the gadget of JAO Figure 3 with D′=1/δD' = 1/\deltaD′=1/δ; for S>2S > 2S>2 it is the composite MDP of Figure 4, whose class-000 states are the s∘(i)s_\circ^{(i)}s∘(i)​, whose class-111 states are the sp(i)s_p^{(i)}sp(i)​, and whose navigation map moves between the copies.

Statement. There is a universal c>0c > 0c>0 with the following property. Let m≥20m \ge 20m≥20, 0<δ≤130 < \delta \le \tfrac130<δ≤31​ and 16m≤δT16m \le \delta T16m≤δT, and set ε=15δm/T\varepsilon = \tfrac15\sqrt{\delta m/T}ε=51​δm/T​. Suppose given a two-class gadget shape on SSS states and AAA actions together with an injection arm:{1,…,m}→S×A\mathrm{arm} : \{1,\dots,m\} \to S \times Aarm:{1,…,m}→S×A whose image consists of class-000 pairs, each of which is a fixed point of the navigation map, and each of whose states returns to itself, down(up(s))=s\mathrm{down}(\mathrm{up}(s)) = sdown(up(s))=s. Let M0M_0M0​ be the reference MDP and MiM_iMi​ the MDP planted at arm(i)\mathrm{arm}(i)arm(i). Then for every learning algorithm π\piπ there is a planting iii such that, from every initial state,

E[Δ(Mi,π,s0,T)]  ≥  c Tm/δ.\mathbb{E}\bigl[\Delta(M_i, \pi, s_0, T)\bigr] \;\ge\; c\,\sqrt{Tm/\delta}.E[Δ(Mi​,π,s0​,T)]≥cTm/δ​.

Why this shape. JAO argue the composite MDP by reducing it to the collapsed two-state MDP in which all s∘(i)s_\circ^{(i)}s∘(i)​ are identified (p. 1583, "we may as well consider the simpler MDP"). That reduction cannot be carried out as an inequality between the two regrets. The collapsed MDP always starts in the reward-000 state, whereas the composite must be bounded from every initial state; starting in a class-111 state collects ∑n<T(1−2δ)n≤12δ\sum_{n<T}(1-2\delta)^n \le \tfrac{1}{2\delta}∑n<T​(1−2δ)n≤2δ1​ more reward than starting in a class-000 state, and at T=1T = 1T=1 the discrepancy is already fatal, since the composite has regret ρ∗(M)−1≤0\rho^*(M) - 1 \le 0ρ∗(M)−1≤0 from a class-111 state while the collapsed MDP has regret ρ∗(M′)>0\rho^*(M') > 0ρ∗(M′)>0. Worse, a policy for the collapsed MDP must be produced from a policy for the composite before the planting is chosen and uniformly in the initial state, and it observes neither which copy the composite is in nor which of the AAA actions was played -- information the composite's policy uses. The statement above therefore keeps the argument on the composite MDP itself: nothing is collapsed, and the initial state is universally quantified.

Proof. All of JAO's Section 6 goes through with the class in place of the state. Write W(n)W(n)W(n) for the probability that the state of round n+1n+1n+1 has class 111. Conditioning on one step gives W(n+1)=δ+(1−2δ)W(n)+ε Q(n)W(n+1) = \delta + (1-2\delta)W(n) + \varepsilon\,Q(n)W(n+1)=δ+(1−2δ)W(n)+εQ(n), where Q(n)Q(n)Q(n) is the probability that round n+1n+1n+1 plays the planted pair, and the reward is ∑n<TW(n)\sum_{n<T} W(n)∑n<T​W(n). Comparing with the reference recursion W0(n+1)=δ+(1−2δ)W0(n)W_0(n+1) = \delta + (1-2\delta)W_0(n)W0​(n+1)=δ+(1−2δ)W0​(n) started at the same W0(0)=ρ(s0)W_0(0) = \rho(s_0)W0​(0)=ρ(s0​), the difference d(n)=W(n)−W0(n)d(n) = W(n) - W_0(n)d(n)=W(n)−W0​(n) obeys d(0)=0d(0) = 0d(0)=0 and d(n+1)=(1−2δ)d(n)+εQ(n)d(n+1) = (1-2\delta)d(n) + \varepsilon Q(n)d(n+1)=(1−2δ)d(n)+εQ(n), which telescopes on summation to 2δ∑n<Td(n)≤ε∑n<TQ(n)2\delta \sum_{n<T} d(n) \le \varepsilon\sum_{n<T} Q(n)2δ∑n<T​d(n)≤ε∑n<T​Q(n); this is equation (34), and it needs no coupling. The reference recursion is solved explicitly, giving ∑n<TW0(n)≤T2+14δ\sum_{n<T} W_0(n) \le \tfrac{T}{2} + \tfrac{1}{4\delta}∑n<T​W0​(n)≤2T​+4δ1​ from either class, which is equation (35). Since arm\mathrm{arm}arm is injective and lands in class-000 pairs, the counts Narm(i)N_{\mathrm{arm}(i)}Narm(i)​ are disjoint and their sum is at most the time spent in class 000, so their reference expectations sum to at most T2+12δ\tfrac{T}{2} + \tfrac{1}{2\delta}2T​+2δ1​. The planted and reference MDPs differ in exactly one row, so the divergence decomposition and Pinsker's inequality bound Ei[Narm(i)]\mathbb{E}_i[N_{\mathrm{arm}(i)}]Ei​[Narm(i)​] by its reference expectation plus T2εδ2 ⋅\tfrac{T}{2}\tfrac{\varepsilon}{\sqrt\delta}\sqrt{2\,\cdot}2T​δ​ε​2⋅​, which is Lemma 13; the two rows are two-point distributions with masses δ\deltaδ and δ+ε\delta + \varepsilonδ+ε, so their relative entropy is the Bernoulli one. The optimal gain is at least δ+ε2δ+ε\frac{\delta+\varepsilon}{2\delta+\varepsilon}2δ+εδ+ε​ because the planted pair is a navigation fixed point, so always playing it from the planted state reproduces the two-state gadget. Averaging over the mmm plantings and choosing ε=15δm/T\varepsilon = \tfrac15\sqrt{\delta m/T}ε=51​δm/T​ leaves a positive multiple of Tm/δ\sqrt{Tm/\delta}Tm/δ​, exactly as in the collapsed case.

Preamble
import Mathlib.Data.Real.Sqrt
import Mathlib.Analysis.SpecialFunctions.Log.Basic
import Definitions.Def_FiniteMDPLearning

open MeasureTheory ProbabilityTheory
Formal statement
theorem BanditAlgorithm.jao_planted_two_class_mdp_regret_core :
    ∃ c : ℝ, 0 < c ∧
      ∀ (S A m : ℕ), 20 ≤ m → ∀ δ : ℝ, 0 < δ → δ ≤ 1 / 3 →
        ∀ T : ℕ, (16 : ℝ) * m ≤ δ * T →
          ∀ ε : ℝ, ε = 1 / 5 * Real.sqrt (δ * m / T) →
            ∀ (ρ : Fin S → ℝ) (up down : Fin S → Fin S) (nav : Fin S → Fin A → Fin S)
              (arm : Fin m → Fin S × Fin A)
              (M : Fin m → FiniteMDP S A) (M₀ : FiniteMDP S A),
              Function.Injective arm →
              (∀ i, ρ (arm i).1 = 0) →
              (∀ i, nav (arm i).1 (arm i).2 = (arm i).1) →
              (∀ i, down (up (arm i).1) = (arm i).1) →
              (∀ s, ρ s = 0 ∨ ρ s = 1) →
              (∀ s b, M₀.r s b = ρ s) →
              (∀ s b, ρ s = 0 →
                  ρ (up s) = 1 ∧ ρ (nav s b) = 0 ∧ up s ≠ nav s b ∧
                  (M₀.P s b (up s) : ℝ) = δ ∧
                  (M₀.P s b (nav s b) : ℝ) = 1 - δ) →
              (∀ s b, ρ s = 1 →
                  ρ (down s) = 0 ∧ down s ≠ s ∧
                  (M₀.P s b (down s) : ℝ) = δ ∧
                  (M₀.P s b s : ℝ) = 1 - δ) →
              (∀ i, ∀ s b, (M i).r s b = ρ s) →
              (∀ i, ∀ s b, ρ s = 0 →
                  ((M i).P s b (up s) : ℝ)
                      = δ + (if (s, b) = arm i then ε else 0) ∧
                  ((M i).P s b (nav s b) : ℝ)
                      = 1 - δ - (if (s, b) = arm i then ε else 0)) →
              (∀ i, ∀ s b, ρ s = 1 →
                  ((M i).P s b (down s) : ℝ) = δ ∧
                  ((M i).P s b s : ℝ) = 1 - δ) →
              ∀ π : MDPPolicy S A,
                ∃ i : Fin m, ∀ s₀ : Fin S,
                  c * Real.sqrt ((T : ℝ) * m / δ) ≤
                    ∫ h, mdpRegret (M i) T h
                      ∂(mdpMeasure (M i) (mdpStateDirac s₀) π T) := by
  sorry
Source
Jaksch, Ortner & Auer, "Near-optimal Regret Bounds for Reinforcement Learning", JMLR 11 (2010) 1563-1600, Section 6 (pp. 1582-1586): the construction of Figures 3-4, equations (34)-(37) and Lemma 13. Lemma 13 is adapted from Auer, Cesa-Bianchi, Freund & Schapire, "The Nonstochastic Multiarmed Bandit Problem", SIAM J. Comput. 32 (2002) 48-77, Theorem A.2.

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