-mixing CLT: , (Jones Thm 7)
OpenMarkovChainCLT.clt_of_summable_rhoLet be a centered, strictly stationary sequence of real random variables on a probability space, with partial sums . Suppose and the -mixing coefficients are summable,
Then the series
converges absolutely, and if then as .
For -mixing sequences (Ibragimov 1975; the source's eq. (12)) a bare second moment suffices for the CLT — the key to the reversible-chain corollary.
Formalization Note Sequences are indexed from , so and the past -algebras used by the mixing coefficients start at ; under strict stationarity this agrees with the source, which indexes from . Absolute convergence of the covariance series is expressed as unconditional summability, and the limit statement is weak convergence of the laws of .
import Definitions.Def_MixingCoefficients
import Mathlib.MeasureTheory.Function.ConvergenceInDistribution
import Mathlib.Probability.Distributions.Gaussian.Real
open MeasureTheory ProbabilityTheory Filter
open scoped ENNReal NNReal Topology ProbabilityTheory
/-- **Theorem 7** (Ibragimov 1975): a centered strictly stationary
square-integrable ρ-mixing sequence with `∑_n ρ(n) < ∞` satisfies
`σ² = E[Y₀²] + 2 ∑_{k≥1} E[Y₀ Y_k]` (absolutely convergent), and if `σ² > 0` then
`S_n / √n →d N(0, σ²)`. -/
theorem MarkovChainCLT.clt_of_summable_rho {Ω : Type*} [MeasurableSpace Ω]
(P : Measure Ω) [IsProbabilityMeasure P] (Y : ℕ → Ω → ℝ)
(hY : ∀ n, Measurable (Y n)) (hstat : IsStrictlyStationary P Y)
(hcent : ∫ ω, Y 0 ω ∂P = 0) (hL2 : MemLp (Y 0) 2 P)
(hρ : Summable (fun n => rhoMixingCoef P Y n)) :
Summable (fun k : ℕ => ∫ ω, Y 0 ω * Y (k + 1) ω ∂P) ∧
(0 < seqAsymptoticVariance P Y →
TendstoInDistribution
(fun (n : ℕ) ω => (Real.sqrt n)⁻¹ * ∑ i ∈ Finset.range n, Y i ω)
atTop (id : ℝ → ℝ) (fun _ => P)
(gaussianReal 0 (seqAsymptoticVariance P Y).toNNReal)) := by sorry
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What the Lean code literally says, in plain math · claude-fable-5
Let be a type carrying a σ-algebra, a measure on assumed to be a probability measure (), and a sequence of functions. Standing hypotheses: each is measurable; the sequence is strictly stationary, meaning that for every the pushforward of under equals the pushforward of under , as measures on the sequence space with the product σ-algebra (the whole shifted sequence has the same joint law as the original; Lean's pushforward returns the zero measure for a non-a.e.-measurable map, but measurability of each makes these sequence maps measurable); and , where is Lean's Bochner integral, equal to by convention when the integrand is not integrable (so this centering hypothesis is automatically satisfied by a non-integrable ). In addition belongs to (Mathlib's MemLp at exponent ): it is almost-everywhere strongly measurable and . For , the ρ-mixing coefficient used here is , the supremum ranging over all and all pairs of functions such that is measurable with respect to (the σ-algebra generated by the with , i.e. the supremum of the pullback σ-algebras), is measurable with respect to (generated by the with ), and both and lie in ; and are Mathlib's covariance and variance under . Division by zero yields in Lean, so pairs in which either variance vanishes are not excluded — they contribute the value . The supremum is the real (junk value on an empty or unbounded set); the defining set contains (e.g. ) and, by Cauchy–Schwarz together with the division-by-zero convention, is bounded above by , so is a genuine supremum in . As with the other coefficients, the split point is also quantified inside the supremum and the index gap between the two blocks is . The mixing hypothesis is that the family is summable in (its finite partial sums converge along the net of finite subsets — unconditional, equivalently absolute, summability). The conclusion is the conjunction of two statements. (1) The real-valued family (indexed by , so it comprises the lag- covariance integrals but not the lag- one; each integral is by convention if fails to be integrable) is summable in , i.e. its finite partial sums converge to some real limit along the net of finite subsets — on the reals this is unconditional summability, equivalent to absolute convergence. (2) A guarded implication: set , where the infinite sum is Lean's tsum, equal to by convention if the family is not summable (a degeneracy ruled out whenever conjunct (1) holds). If , then the random variables converge in distribution along to the Gaussian law with mean and variance : the variance parameter is truncated at (Real.toNNReal), which under the guard is just ; gaussianReal 0 v is the normal law on , degenerating to the point mass at when (excluded by the guard). Convergence in distribution (TendstoInDistribution, with the limit presented as the identity map on carrying the Gaussian measure, whose law is that Gaussian itself) means the laws converge weakly to : for every bounded continuous . Degenerate index: in Lean, so .
Confirmed by the mission captain (proposal self-audit).