Strongly mixing stationary sequences: CLT uniformly integrable (Jones Thm 3)
OpenMarkovChainCLT.clt_iff_uniformlyIntegrable_of_alpha_mixingLet be a centered, strictly stationary sequence of real random variables on a probability space, with partial sums and . Suppose , the sequence is strongly mixing (), and . Then the following are equivalent:
This characterization (Cogburn; Denker; Mori–Yoshihara) explains exactly what can fail for dependent sequences with second moments: the CLT is equivalent to uniform integrability of the normalized squares, not implied by moments alone.
Formalization Note For the (finitely many) indices with the normalized quantities are interpreted as . Sequences are indexed from , so and the past -algebras used by the mixing coefficients start at ; under strict stationarity this agrees with the source, which indexes from . Absolute convergence of the covariance series is expressed as unconditional summability, and the limit statement is weak convergence of the laws of .
import Definitions.Def_MixingCoefficients
import Mathlib.MeasureTheory.Function.ConvergenceInDistribution
import Mathlib.Probability.Distributions.Gaussian.Real
import Mathlib.MeasureTheory.Function.UniformIntegrable
open MeasureTheory ProbabilityTheory Filter
open scoped ENNReal NNReal Topology ProbabilityTheory
/-- **Theorem 3** (Cogburn 1960; Denker 1986; Mori–Yoshihara 1986): for a centered
strictly stationary strongly mixing square-integrable sequence with
`σ_n² = E[S_n²] → ∞`, the normalized sums `S_n / σ_n` converge in distribution to
`N(0,1)` **iff** the family `{S_n² / σ_n²}` is uniformly integrable. -/
theorem MarkovChainCLT.clt_iff_uniformlyIntegrable_of_alpha_mixing {Ω : Type*} [MeasurableSpace Ω]
(P : Measure Ω) [IsProbabilityMeasure P] (Y : ℕ → Ω → ℝ)
(hY : ∀ n, Measurable (Y n)) (hstat : IsStrictlyStationary P Y)
(hcent : ∫ ω, Y 0 ω ∂P = 0) (hL2 : MemLp (Y 0) 2 P)
(hmix : Tendsto (fun n => alphaMixingCoef P Y n) atTop (𝓝 0))
(hvar : Tendsto (fun n => ∫ ω, (∑ i ∈ Finset.range n, Y i ω) ^ 2 ∂P) atTop atTop) :
TendstoInDistribution
(fun (n : ℕ) ω => (∑ i ∈ Finset.range n, Y i ω)
/ Real.sqrt (∫ ω', (∑ i ∈ Finset.range n, Y i ω') ^ 2 ∂P))
atTop (id : ℝ → ℝ) (fun _ => P) (gaussianReal 0 1)
↔ UniformIntegrable
(fun (n : ℕ) ω => (∑ i ∈ Finset.range n, Y i ω) ^ 2
/ ∫ ω', (∑ i ∈ Finset.range n, Y i ω') ^ 2 ∂P) 1 P := by sorry
Read-back
What the Lean code literally says, in plain math · claude-fable-5
Let be a type carrying a σ-algebra, a measure on assumed to be a probability measure (), and a sequence of functions. Standing hypotheses: each is measurable; the sequence is strictly stationary, meaning that for every the pushforward of under equals the pushforward of under , as measures on the sequence space with the product σ-algebra (the whole shifted sequence has the same joint law as the original; Lean's pushforward returns the zero measure for a non-a.e.-measurable map, but measurability of each makes these sequence maps measurable); and , where is Lean's Bochner integral, equal to by convention when the integrand is not integrable (so this centering hypothesis is automatically satisfied by a non-integrable ). In addition belongs to (Mathlib's MemLp at exponent ): it is almost-everywhere strongly measurable and . For , the α-mixing coefficient used here is , where is the σ-algebra on generated by the random variables with (the supremum of the pullback σ-algebras over ), is the σ-algebra generated by the with , and measure values are converted from extended nonnegative reals to reals (, irrelevant for a probability measure). The supremum ranges over the split point as well as over the event pair, and the index gap between the past block and the future block is exactly (so allows overlapping blocks at index ). It is the real-number , which by Lean convention is for an empty or unbounded set; here the defining set contains (take ) and is bounded above by , so is a genuine supremum lying in . Two further hypotheses: as , and, writing and (a Bochner integral, by convention if is not integrable), the sequence tends to (eventually exceeds every real bound). The conclusion is an equivalence (if and only if) between the following two statements. (A) The random variables converge in distribution along to the standard Gaussian: gaussianReal 0 1 is the normal law of mean and variance (it would be the point mass at only if the variance were , which is not), and TendstoInDistribution — with the limit presented as the identity map on carrying that Gaussian measure, whose law is the Gaussian itself — asserts weak convergence of the laws: for every bounded continuous . (B) The family (indexed by ) is uniformly integrable at exponent over in Mathlib's sense (UniformIntegrable), which is the conjunction of three conditions: (i) each is almost-everywhere strongly measurable; (ii) uniform absolute continuity: for every there exists such that for every and every measurable set with one has (the norm of cut off to ); and (iii) uniform boundedness: there is a finite constant with for all . Degenerate cases: real division by zero yields in Lean, so whenever — in particular at , where , hence and — both the normalized variable and the ratio are identically ; also is Lean's real square root, which sends negative arguments to (here in all cases).
Confirmed by the mission captain (proposal self-audit).