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Strongly mixing stationary sequences: CLT   ⟺  \iff⟺{Sn2/σn2}\{S_n^2/\sigma_n^2\}{Sn2​/σn2​} uniformly integrable (Jones Thm 3)

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MarkovChainCLT.clt_iff_uniformlyIntegrable_of_alpha_mixing

by Shuze Chen · Aug 15, 2026 · Mathlib c5ea003 (Lean v4.30.0)

central-limit-theoremmixing-processesprobability

Let Y={Yn}n≥0Y = \{Y_n\}_{n \ge 0}Y={Yn​}n≥0​ be a centered, strictly stationary sequence of real random variables on a probability space, with partial sums Sn=∑i<nYiS_n = \sum_{i < n} Y_iSn​=∑i<n​Yi​ and σn2=E[Sn2]\sigma_n^2 = E[S_n^2]σn2​=E[Sn2​]. Suppose E[Y02]<∞E[Y_0^2] < \inftyE[Y02​]<∞, the sequence is strongly mixing (α(n)→0\alpha(n) \to 0α(n)→0), and σn2→∞\sigma_n^2 \to \inftyσn2​→∞. Then the following are equivalent:

Snσn→dN(0,1)⟺{Sn2σn2:n≥1} is uniformly integrable.\frac{S_n}{\sigma_n} \xrightarrow{d} N(0, 1) \qquad \Longleftrightarrow \qquad \Bigl\{ \frac{S_n^2}{\sigma_n^2} : n \ge 1 \Bigr\} \text{ is uniformly integrable.}σn​Sn​​d​N(0,1)⟺{σn2​Sn2​​:n≥1} is uniformly integrable.

This characterization (Cogburn; Denker; Mori–Yoshihara) explains exactly what can fail for dependent sequences with second moments: the CLT is equivalent to uniform integrability of the normalized squares, not implied by moments alone.

Formalization Note For the (finitely many) indices with σn=0\sigma_n = 0σn​=0 the normalized quantities are interpreted as 000. Sequences are indexed from 000, so Sn=Y0+⋯+Yn−1S_n = Y_0 + \cdots + Y_{n-1}Sn​=Y0​+⋯+Yn−1​ and the past σ\sigmaσ-algebras used by the mixing coefficients start at Y0Y_0Y0​; under strict stationarity this agrees with the source, which indexes from 111. Absolute convergence of the covariance series is expressed as unconditional summability, and the limit statement is weak convergence of the laws of Sn/nS_n/\sqrt{n}Sn​/n​.

Preamble
import Definitions.Def_MixingCoefficients
import Mathlib.MeasureTheory.Function.ConvergenceInDistribution
import Mathlib.Probability.Distributions.Gaussian.Real
import Mathlib.MeasureTheory.Function.UniformIntegrable

open MeasureTheory ProbabilityTheory Filter
open scoped ENNReal NNReal Topology ProbabilityTheory

/-- **Theorem 3** (Cogburn 1960; Denker 1986; Mori–Yoshihara 1986): for a centered
strictly stationary strongly mixing square-integrable sequence with
`σ_n² = E[S_n²] → ∞`, the normalized sums `S_n / σ_n` converge in distribution to
`N(0,1)` **iff** the family `{S_n² / σ_n²}` is uniformly integrable. -/
Formal statement
theorem MarkovChainCLT.clt_iff_uniformlyIntegrable_of_alpha_mixing {Ω : Type*} [MeasurableSpace Ω]
    (P : Measure Ω) [IsProbabilityMeasure P] (Y : ℕ → Ω → ℝ)
    (hY : ∀ n, Measurable (Y n)) (hstat : IsStrictlyStationary P Y)
    (hcent : ∫ ω, Y 0 ω ∂P = 0) (hL2 : MemLp (Y 0) 2 P)
    (hmix : Tendsto (fun n => alphaMixingCoef P Y n) atTop (𝓝 0))
    (hvar : Tendsto (fun n => ∫ ω, (∑ i ∈ Finset.range n, Y i ω) ^ 2 ∂P) atTop atTop) :
    TendstoInDistribution
        (fun (n : ℕ) ω => (∑ i ∈ Finset.range n, Y i ω)
          / Real.sqrt (∫ ω', (∑ i ∈ Finset.range n, Y i ω') ^ 2 ∂P))
        atTop (id : ℝ → ℝ) (fun _ => P) (gaussianReal 0 1)
      ↔ UniformIntegrable
          (fun (n : ℕ) ω => (∑ i ∈ Finset.range n, Y i ω) ^ 2
            / ∫ ω', (∑ i ∈ Finset.range n, Y i ω') ^ 2 ∂P) 1 P := by sorry
Source
G. L. Jones, "On the Markov Chain Central Limit Theorem", Probability Surveys 1 (2004) 299-320, arXiv math/0409112v2, Theorem 3 (arXiv v2 p. 9); originals: R. Cogburn (1960), M. Denker (1986), T. Mori & K. Yoshihara (1986)
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What the Lean code literally says, in plain math · claude-fable-5

Let Ω\OmegaΩ be a type carrying a σ-algebra, PPP a measure on Ω\OmegaΩ assumed to be a probability measure (P(Ω)=1P(\Omega)=1P(Ω)=1), and Y0,Y1,Y2,⋯:Ω→RY_0, Y_1, Y_2, \dots : \Omega \to \mathbb{R}Y0​,Y1​,Y2​,⋯:Ω→R a sequence of functions. Standing hypotheses: each YnY_nYn​ is measurable; the sequence is strictly stationary, meaning that for every k∈Nk \in \mathbb{N}k∈N the pushforward of PPP under ω↦(Yn+k(ω))n∈N\omega \mapsto (Y_{n+k}(\omega))_{n \in \mathbb{N}}ω↦(Yn+k​(ω))n∈N​ equals the pushforward of PPP under ω↦(Yn(ω))n∈N\omega \mapsto (Y_n(\omega))_{n \in \mathbb{N}}ω↦(Yn​(ω))n∈N​, as measures on the sequence space RN\mathbb{R}^{\mathbb{N}}RN with the product σ-algebra (the whole shifted sequence has the same joint law as the original; Lean's pushforward returns the zero measure for a non-a.e.-measurable map, but measurability of each YnY_nYn​ makes these sequence maps measurable); and ∫Y0 dP=0\int Y_0 \, dP = 0∫Y0​dP=0, where ∫\int∫ is Lean's Bochner integral, equal to 000 by convention when the integrand is not integrable (so this centering hypothesis is automatically satisfied by a non-integrable Y0Y_0Y0​). In addition Y0Y_0Y0​ belongs to L2(P)L^2(P)L2(P) (Mathlib's MemLp at exponent 222): it is almost-everywhere strongly measurable and ∫∣Y0∣2 dP<∞\int |Y_0|^2 \, dP < \infty∫∣Y0​∣2dP<∞. For n∈Nn \in \mathbb{N}n∈N, the α-mixing coefficient used here is α(n):=sup⁡{ ∣P(A∩B)−P(A) P(B)∣  :  k∈N, A∈F≤k, B∈F≥k+n }\alpha(n) := \sup\{\, |P(A \cap B) - P(A)\,P(B)| \;:\; k \in \mathbb{N},\ A \in \mathcal{F}_{\le k},\ B \in \mathcal{F}_{\ge k+n} \,\}α(n):=sup{∣P(A∩B)−P(A)P(B)∣:k∈N, A∈F≤k​, B∈F≥k+n​}, where F≤k\mathcal{F}_{\le k}F≤k​ is the σ-algebra on Ω\OmegaΩ generated by the random variables YiY_iYi​ with i≤ki \le ki≤k (the supremum of the pullback σ-algebras σ(Yi)\sigma(Y_i)σ(Yi​) over i≤ki \le ki≤k), F≥k+n\mathcal{F}_{\ge k+n}F≥k+n​ is the σ-algebra generated by the YiY_iYi​ with i≥k+ni \ge k+ni≥k+n, and measure values are converted from extended nonnegative reals to reals (∞↦0\infty \mapsto 0∞↦0, irrelevant for a probability measure). The supremum ranges over the split point kkk as well as over the event pair, and the index gap between the past block {0,…,k}\{0,\dots,k\}{0,…,k} and the future block {k+n,k+n+1,… }\{k+n, k+n+1, \dots\}{k+n,k+n+1,…} is exactly nnn (so α(0)\alpha(0)α(0) allows overlapping blocks at index kkk). It is the real-number sup⁡\supsup, which by Lean convention is 000 for an empty or unbounded set; here the defining set contains 000 (take A=B=∅A = B = \emptysetA=B=∅) and is bounded above by 111, so α(n)\alpha(n)α(n) is a genuine supremum lying in [0,1][0,1][0,1]. Two further hypotheses: α(n)→0\alpha(n) \to 0α(n)→0 as n→∞n \to \inftyn→∞, and, writing Sn(ω):=∑i=0n−1Yi(ω)S_n(\omega) := \sum_{i=0}^{n-1} Y_i(\omega)Sn​(ω):=∑i=0n−1​Yi​(ω) and sn2:=∫Sn2 dPs_n^2 := \int S_n^2 \, dPsn2​:=∫Sn2​dP (a Bochner integral, 000 by convention if Sn2S_n^2Sn2​ is not integrable), the sequence sn2s_n^2sn2​ tends to +∞+\infty+∞ (eventually exceeds every real bound). The conclusion is an equivalence (if and only if) between the following two statements. (A) The random variables ω↦Sn(ω)/sn2\omega \mapsto S_n(\omega) / \sqrt{s_n^2}ω↦Sn​(ω)/sn2​​ converge in distribution along n→∞n \to \inftyn→∞ to the standard Gaussian: gaussianReal 0 1 is the normal law of mean 000 and variance 111 (it would be the point mass at 000 only if the variance were 000, which 111 is not), and TendstoInDistribution — with the limit presented as the identity map on R\mathbb{R}R carrying that Gaussian measure, whose law is the Gaussian itself — asserts weak convergence of the laws: ∫f(Sn/sn2) dP→∫f dN(0,1)\int f(S_n/\sqrt{s_n^2})\, dP \to \int f\, d\mathcal{N}(0,1)∫f(Sn​/sn2​​)dP→∫fdN(0,1) for every bounded continuous f:R→Rf : \mathbb{R} \to \mathbb{R}f:R→R. (B) The family gn(ω):=Sn(ω)2/sn2g_n(\omega) := S_n(\omega)^2 / s_n^2gn​(ω):=Sn​(ω)2/sn2​ (indexed by n∈Nn \in \mathbb{N}n∈N) is uniformly integrable at exponent 111 over PPP in Mathlib's sense (UniformIntegrable), which is the conjunction of three conditions: (i) each gng_ngn​ is almost-everywhere strongly measurable; (ii) uniform absolute continuity: for every ε>0\varepsilon > 0ε>0 there exists δ>0\delta > 0δ>0 such that for every nnn and every measurable set S⊆ΩS \subseteq \OmegaS⊆Ω with P(S)≤δP(S) \le \deltaP(S)≤δ one has ∫S∣gn∣ dP≤ε\int_S |g_n| \, dP \le \varepsilon∫S​∣gn​∣dP≤ε (the L1L^1L1 norm of gng_ngn​ cut off to SSS); and (iii) uniform L1L^1L1 boundedness: there is a finite constant C≥0C \ge 0C≥0 with ∥gn∥L1(P)≤C\|g_n\|_{L^1(P)} \le C∥gn​∥L1(P)​≤C for all nnn. Degenerate cases: real division by zero yields 000 in Lean, so whenever sn2=0s_n^2 = 0sn2​=0 — in particular at n=0n = 0n=0, where S0≡0S_0 \equiv 0S0​≡0, hence s02=0s_0^2 = 0s02​=0 and s02=0\sqrt{s_0^2} = 0s02​​=0 — both the normalized variable Sn/sn2S_n/\sqrt{s_n^2}Sn​/sn2​​ and the ratio gng_ngn​ are identically 000; also ⋅\sqrt{\cdot}⋅​ is Lean's real square root, which sends negative arguments to 000 (here sn2≥0s_n^2 \ge 0sn2​≥0 in all cases).

Human review
  • Endorsed by Community (Bot) · Aug 15, 2026

  • Endorsed by Shuze Chen · Aug 15, 2026

    Confirmed by the mission captain (proposal self-audit).

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