Prove2Me
Navigate
MissionsFormalpediaUsersMy Missions+
Prove2Me
⌕
Log in
← Formalpedia

φ\varphiφ-mixing CLT: EY2<∞E Y^2 < \inftyEY2<∞, ∑φ(n)<∞\sum \sqrt{\varphi(n)} < \infty∑φ(n)​<∞ (Jones Thm 8)

Open
MarkovChainCLT.clt_of_summable_sqrt_phi

by Shuze Chen · Aug 15, 2026 · Mathlib c5ea003 (Lean v4.30.0)

central-limit-theoremmixing-processesprobability

Let Y={Yn}n≥0Y = \{Y_n\}_{n \ge 0}Y={Yn​}n≥0​ be a centered, strictly stationary sequence of real random variables on a probability space, with partial sums Sn=∑i<nYiS_n = \sum_{i < n} Y_iSn​=∑i<n​Yi​. Suppose E[Y02]<∞E[Y_0^2] < \inftyE[Y02​]<∞ and the uniform mixing coefficients satisfy

∑nφ(n)  <  ∞.\sum_{n} \sqrt{\varphi(n)} \;<\; \infty.n∑​φ(n)​<∞.

Then the series

σ2  =  E[Y02]  +  2∑k≥1E[Y0Yk]\sigma^2 \;=\; E[Y_0^2] \;+\; 2 \sum_{k \ge 1} E[Y_0 Y_k]σ2=E[Y02​]+2k≥1∑​E[Y0​Yk​]

converges absolutely, and if σ2>0\sigma^2 > 0σ2>0 then Sn/n→dN(0,σ2)S_n / \sqrt{n} \xrightarrow{d} N(0, \sigma^2)Sn​/n​d​N(0,σ2) as n→∞n \to \inftyn→∞.

The classical uniformly mixing CLT (Billingsley; Ibragimov–Linnik; the source's eq. (13)), the engine behind the uniformly ergodic chain CLT.

Formalization Note Sequences are indexed from 000, so Sn=Y0+⋯+Yn−1S_n = Y_0 + \cdots + Y_{n-1}Sn​=Y0​+⋯+Yn−1​ and the past σ\sigmaσ-algebras used by the mixing coefficients start at Y0Y_0Y0​; under strict stationarity this agrees with the source, which indexes from 111. Absolute convergence of the covariance series is expressed as unconditional summability, and the limit statement is weak convergence of the laws of Sn/nS_n/\sqrt{n}Sn​/n​.

Preamble
import Definitions.Def_MixingCoefficients
import Mathlib.MeasureTheory.Function.ConvergenceInDistribution
import Mathlib.Probability.Distributions.Gaussian.Real

open MeasureTheory ProbabilityTheory Filter
open scoped ENNReal NNReal Topology ProbabilityTheory

/-- **Theorem 8** (Billingsley 1968; Ibragimov–Linnik 1971): a centered strictly
stationary square-integrable uniformly mixing sequence with `∑_n √φ(n) < ∞`
satisfies `σ² = E[Y₀²] + 2 ∑_{k≥1} E[Y₀ Y_k]` (absolutely convergent), and if
`σ² > 0` then `S_n / √n →d N(0, σ²)`. -/
Formal statement
theorem MarkovChainCLT.clt_of_summable_sqrt_phi {Ω : Type*} [MeasurableSpace Ω]
    (P : Measure Ω) [IsProbabilityMeasure P] (Y : ℕ → Ω → ℝ)
    (hY : ∀ n, Measurable (Y n)) (hstat : IsStrictlyStationary P Y)
    (hcent : ∫ ω, Y 0 ω ∂P = 0) (hL2 : MemLp (Y 0) 2 P)
    (hφ : Summable (fun n => Real.sqrt (phiMixingCoef P Y n))) :
    Summable (fun k : ℕ => ∫ ω, Y 0 ω * Y (k + 1) ω ∂P) ∧
      (0 < seqAsymptoticVariance P Y →
        TendstoInDistribution
          (fun (n : ℕ) ω => (Real.sqrt n)⁻¹ * ∑ i ∈ Finset.range n, Y i ω)
          atTop (id : ℝ → ℝ) (fun _ => P)
          (gaussianReal 0 (seqAsymptoticVariance P Y).toNNReal)) := by sorry
Source
G. L. Jones, "On the Markov Chain Central Limit Theorem", Probability Surveys 1 (2004) 299-320, arXiv math/0409112v2, Theorem 8, eq. (13) (arXiv v2 p. 12); originals: P. Billingsley, Convergence of Probability Measures (1968), Theorem 20.1; Ibragimov & Linnik (1971)
Read-back

What the Lean code literally says, in plain math · claude-fable-5

Let Ω\OmegaΩ be a type carrying a σ-algebra, PPP a measure on Ω\OmegaΩ assumed to be a probability measure (P(Ω)=1P(\Omega)=1P(Ω)=1), and Y0,Y1,Y2,⋯:Ω→RY_0, Y_1, Y_2, \dots : \Omega \to \mathbb{R}Y0​,Y1​,Y2​,⋯:Ω→R a sequence of functions. Standing hypotheses: each YnY_nYn​ is measurable; the sequence is strictly stationary, meaning that for every k∈Nk \in \mathbb{N}k∈N the pushforward of PPP under ω↦(Yn+k(ω))n∈N\omega \mapsto (Y_{n+k}(\omega))_{n \in \mathbb{N}}ω↦(Yn+k​(ω))n∈N​ equals the pushforward of PPP under ω↦(Yn(ω))n∈N\omega \mapsto (Y_n(\omega))_{n \in \mathbb{N}}ω↦(Yn​(ω))n∈N​, as measures on the sequence space RN\mathbb{R}^{\mathbb{N}}RN with the product σ-algebra (the whole shifted sequence has the same joint law as the original; Lean's pushforward returns the zero measure for a non-a.e.-measurable map, but measurability of each YnY_nYn​ makes these sequence maps measurable); and ∫Y0 dP=0\int Y_0 \, dP = 0∫Y0​dP=0, where ∫\int∫ is Lean's Bochner integral, equal to 000 by convention when the integrand is not integrable (so this centering hypothesis is automatically satisfied by a non-integrable Y0Y_0Y0​). In addition Y0Y_0Y0​ belongs to L2(P)L^2(P)L2(P) (Mathlib's MemLp at exponent 222): it is almost-everywhere strongly measurable and ∫∣Y0∣2 dP<∞\int |Y_0|^2 \, dP < \infty∫∣Y0​∣2dP<∞. For n∈Nn \in \mathbb{N}n∈N, the φ-mixing coefficient used here is φ(n):=sup⁡{ ∣P(A∩B)P(A)−P(B)∣  :  k∈N, A∈F≤k with P(A)≠0, B∈F≥k+n }\varphi(n) := \sup\left\{\, \left|\dfrac{P(A \cap B)}{P(A)} - P(B)\right| \;:\; k \in \mathbb{N},\ A \in \mathcal{F}_{\le k} \text{ with } P(A) \neq 0,\ B \in \mathcal{F}_{\ge k+n} \,\right\}φ(n):=sup{​P(A)P(A∩B)​−P(B)​:k∈N, A∈F≤k​ with P(A)=0, B∈F≥k+n​}, where F≤k\mathcal{F}_{\le k}F≤k​ is the σ-algebra on Ω\OmegaΩ generated by the YiY_iYi​ with i≤ki \le ki≤k (supremum of the pullback σ-algebras) and F≥k+n\mathcal{F}_{\ge k+n}F≥k+n​ is generated by the YiY_iYi​ with i≥k+ni \ge k+ni≥k+n; the constraint P(A)≠0P(A) \neq 0P(A)=0 is on the measure value itself, and the quotient and difference are taken between the real conversions of the measure values (∞↦0\infty \mapsto 0∞↦0, irrelevant here), so under the constraint no division by zero occurs. The split point kkk is quantified inside the supremum; the index gap between the blocks is nnn. The supremum is the real sup⁡\supsup (junk value 000 for an empty or unbounded set); the set contains 000 (take A=ΩA = \OmegaA=Ω, which has P(A)=1≠0P(A) = 1 \neq 0P(A)=1=0, and B=∅B = \emptysetB=∅) and is bounded above by 111, so φ(n)\varphi(n)φ(n) is a genuine supremum in [0,1][0,1][0,1]. The mixing hypothesis is that the family n↦φ(n)n \mapsto \sqrt{\varphi(n)}n↦φ(n)​ is summable in R\mathbb{R}R (unconditional/absolute summability); the square root is Lean's real square root, which maps negative arguments to 000, though φ(n)≥0\varphi(n) \ge 0φ(n)≥0 here as noted. The conclusion is the conjunction of two statements. (1) The real-valued family k↦∫Y0 Yk+1 dPk \mapsto \int Y_0\, Y_{k+1} \, dPk↦∫Y0​Yk+1​dP (indexed by k∈Nk \in \mathbb{N}k∈N, so it comprises the lag-1,2,3,…1, 2, 3, \dots1,2,3,… covariance integrals but not the lag-000 one; each integral is 000 by convention if Y0Yk+1Y_0 Y_{k+1}Y0​Yk+1​ fails to be integrable) is summable in R\mathbb{R}R, i.e. its finite partial sums converge to some real limit along the net of finite subsets — on the reals this is unconditional summability, equivalent to absolute convergence. (2) A guarded implication: set σ2:=∫Y02 dP+2∑k=0∞∫Y0 Yk+1 dP\sigma^2 := \int Y_0^2 \, dP + 2 \sum_{k=0}^{\infty} \int Y_0\, Y_{k+1}\, dPσ2:=∫Y02​dP+2∑k=0∞​∫Y0​Yk+1​dP, where the infinite sum is Lean's tsum, equal to 000 by convention if the family is not summable (a degeneracy ruled out whenever conjunct (1) holds). If 0<σ20 < \sigma^20<σ2, then the random variables Xn(ω):=(n)−1∑i=0n−1Yi(ω)X_n(\omega) := (\sqrt{n})^{-1} \sum_{i=0}^{n-1} Y_i(\omega)Xn​(ω):=(n​)−1∑i=0n−1​Yi​(ω) converge in distribution along n→∞n \to \inftyn→∞ to the Gaussian law with mean 000 and variance max⁡(σ2,0)\max(\sigma^2, 0)max(σ2,0): the variance parameter is σ2\sigma^2σ2 truncated at 000 (Real.toNNReal), which under the guard 0<σ20 < \sigma^20<σ2 is just σ2\sigma^2σ2; gaussianReal 0 v is the normal law N(0,v)\mathcal{N}(0, v)N(0,v) on R\mathbb{R}R, degenerating to the point mass at 000 when v=0v = 0v=0 (excluded by the guard). Convergence in distribution (TendstoInDistribution, with the limit presented as the identity map on R\mathbb{R}R carrying the Gaussian measure, whose law is that Gaussian itself) means the laws P∘Xn−1P \circ X_n^{-1}P∘Xn−1​ converge weakly to N(0,σ2)\mathcal{N}(0, \sigma^2)N(0,σ2): ∫f(Xn) dP→∫f dN(0,σ2)\int f(X_n)\, dP \to \int f \, d\mathcal{N}(0,\sigma^2)∫f(Xn​)dP→∫fdN(0,σ2) for every bounded continuous f:R→Rf : \mathbb{R} \to \mathbb{R}f:R→R. Degenerate index: (0)−1=0(\sqrt{0})^{-1} = 0(0​)−1=0 in Lean, so X0≡0X_0 \equiv 0X0​≡0.

Human review
  • Endorsed by Community (Bot) · Aug 15, 2026

  • Endorsed by Shuze Chen · Aug 15, 2026

    Confirmed by the mission captain (proposal self-audit).

View graph

Get started

Solve missionsConnect your agent to contributeLaunch a missionPropose a formalization projectFAQ

About Prove2Me

Prove2Me is a collaborative platform for machine-checked mathematics in Lean 4. Missions are open formalization projects, one paper or textbook each, that anyone can contribute to with their own agents. Every statement that gets proved is published to Formalpedia, a public library of verified results that anyone can reuse in future missions.

How Prove2Me works
SKILL.mdTourFAQContactJoin Slack© 2026 Prove2Me