-mixing CLT: , (Jones Thm 8)
OpenMarkovChainCLT.clt_of_summable_sqrt_phiLet be a centered, strictly stationary sequence of real random variables on a probability space, with partial sums . Suppose and the uniform mixing coefficients satisfy
Then the series
converges absolutely, and if then as .
The classical uniformly mixing CLT (Billingsley; Ibragimov–Linnik; the source's eq. (13)), the engine behind the uniformly ergodic chain CLT.
Formalization Note Sequences are indexed from , so and the past -algebras used by the mixing coefficients start at ; under strict stationarity this agrees with the source, which indexes from . Absolute convergence of the covariance series is expressed as unconditional summability, and the limit statement is weak convergence of the laws of .
import Definitions.Def_MixingCoefficients
import Mathlib.MeasureTheory.Function.ConvergenceInDistribution
import Mathlib.Probability.Distributions.Gaussian.Real
open MeasureTheory ProbabilityTheory Filter
open scoped ENNReal NNReal Topology ProbabilityTheory
/-- **Theorem 8** (Billingsley 1968; Ibragimov–Linnik 1971): a centered strictly
stationary square-integrable uniformly mixing sequence with `∑_n √φ(n) < ∞`
satisfies `σ² = E[Y₀²] + 2 ∑_{k≥1} E[Y₀ Y_k]` (absolutely convergent), and if
`σ² > 0` then `S_n / √n →d N(0, σ²)`. -/
theorem MarkovChainCLT.clt_of_summable_sqrt_phi {Ω : Type*} [MeasurableSpace Ω]
(P : Measure Ω) [IsProbabilityMeasure P] (Y : ℕ → Ω → ℝ)
(hY : ∀ n, Measurable (Y n)) (hstat : IsStrictlyStationary P Y)
(hcent : ∫ ω, Y 0 ω ∂P = 0) (hL2 : MemLp (Y 0) 2 P)
(hφ : Summable (fun n => Real.sqrt (phiMixingCoef P Y n))) :
Summable (fun k : ℕ => ∫ ω, Y 0 ω * Y (k + 1) ω ∂P) ∧
(0 < seqAsymptoticVariance P Y →
TendstoInDistribution
(fun (n : ℕ) ω => (Real.sqrt n)⁻¹ * ∑ i ∈ Finset.range n, Y i ω)
atTop (id : ℝ → ℝ) (fun _ => P)
(gaussianReal 0 (seqAsymptoticVariance P Y).toNNReal)) := by sorry
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What the Lean code literally says, in plain math · claude-fable-5
Let be a type carrying a σ-algebra, a measure on assumed to be a probability measure (), and a sequence of functions. Standing hypotheses: each is measurable; the sequence is strictly stationary, meaning that for every the pushforward of under equals the pushforward of under , as measures on the sequence space with the product σ-algebra (the whole shifted sequence has the same joint law as the original; Lean's pushforward returns the zero measure for a non-a.e.-measurable map, but measurability of each makes these sequence maps measurable); and , where is Lean's Bochner integral, equal to by convention when the integrand is not integrable (so this centering hypothesis is automatically satisfied by a non-integrable ). In addition belongs to (Mathlib's MemLp at exponent ): it is almost-everywhere strongly measurable and . For , the φ-mixing coefficient used here is , where is the σ-algebra on generated by the with (supremum of the pullback σ-algebras) and is generated by the with ; the constraint is on the measure value itself, and the quotient and difference are taken between the real conversions of the measure values (, irrelevant here), so under the constraint no division by zero occurs. The split point is quantified inside the supremum; the index gap between the blocks is . The supremum is the real (junk value for an empty or unbounded set); the set contains (take , which has , and ) and is bounded above by , so is a genuine supremum in . The mixing hypothesis is that the family is summable in (unconditional/absolute summability); the square root is Lean's real square root, which maps negative arguments to , though here as noted. The conclusion is the conjunction of two statements. (1) The real-valued family (indexed by , so it comprises the lag- covariance integrals but not the lag- one; each integral is by convention if fails to be integrable) is summable in , i.e. its finite partial sums converge to some real limit along the net of finite subsets — on the reals this is unconditional summability, equivalent to absolute convergence. (2) A guarded implication: set , where the infinite sum is Lean's tsum, equal to by convention if the family is not summable (a degeneracy ruled out whenever conjunct (1) holds). If , then the random variables converge in distribution along to the Gaussian law with mean and variance : the variance parameter is truncated at (Real.toNNReal), which under the guard is just ; gaussianReal 0 v is the normal law on , degenerating to the point mass at when (excluded by the guard). Convergence in distribution (TendstoInDistribution, with the limit presented as the identity map on carrying the Gaussian measure, whose law is that Gaussian itself) means the laws converge weakly to : for every bounded continuous . Degenerate index: in Lean, so .
Confirmed by the mission captain (proposal self-audit).