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Proposition 2.1 -- gambler's ruin

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MarkovMixing.gamblers_ruin

by Shuze Chen · Aug 21, 2026 · Mathlib c5ea003 (Lean v4.30.0)

markov-chainsmixing-timesprobability

For the fair unit-bet gambler absorbed at 000 and nnn, started from fortune k∈{0,…,n}k\in\{0,\dots,n\}k∈{0,…,n}: the probability of reaching nnn before 000 is k/nk/nk/n, and the expected absorption time is k(n−k)k(n-k)k(n−k). Both quantities are expressed by tail/first-passage sums over trajectories of the explicit gambler's chain.

Preamble
import Definitions.Def_mm_classical
Formal statement
namespace MarkovMixing

/-- **Proposition 2.1** (LPW), gambler's ruin: for fair unit bets absorbed at
`0` and `n`, started from `k` the probability of reaching `n` before `0` is
`k/n`, and the expected absorption time is `k(n-k)`. -/
theorem gamblers_ruin (n : ℕ) (hn : 0 < n) (k : Fin (n + 1)) :
    hitBeforeProb (gamblersChain n) k (Fin.last n) 0 = (k.val : ℝ) / n ∧
    expSetHitTime (gamblersChain n) k {0, Fin.last n} =
      (k.val : ℝ) * ((n : ℝ) - (k.val : ℝ)) := by
  sorry

end MarkovMixing
Source
D. A. Levin, Y. Peres, E. L. Wilmer, Markov Chains and Mixing Times, AMS 2009, https://documents.epfl.ch/groups/i/ip/ipg/www/2013-2014/Random_Walks/markovmixing.pdf, Section 2.1, Proposition 2.1, p. 21
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What the Lean code literally says, in plain math · claude-fable-5

For every natural number nnn with 0<n0 < n0<n and every state kkk in the finite set {0,1,…,n}\{0, 1, \dots, n\}{0,1,…,n}, the theorem asserts the conjunction of two identities about the "gambler's ruin" transition matrix PPP on the (n+1)(n+1)(n+1)-element state space {0,…,n}\{0,\dots,n\}{0,…,n}, defined entrywise by: if the current state is 000 or nnn, then P(k,k)=1P(k,k)=1P(k,k)=1 and all other entries in that row are 000 (both endpoints are absorbing); otherwise (for 0<k<n0 < k < n0<k<n) the entry P(k,l)P(k,l)P(k,l) is 1/21/21/2 when l=k+1l = k+1l=k+1 or l=k−1l = k-1l=k−1, and 000 for every other lll. First conjunct: the quantity "probability of hitting nnn before 000 starting from kkk", defined as the infinite series ∑t=0∞ft\sum_{t=0}^{\infty} f_t∑t=0∞​ft​, where ftf_tft​ is the finite sum, over all sequences ω=(ω0,ω1,…,ωt)\omega = (\omega_0, \omega_1, \dots, \omega_t)ω=(ω0​,ω1​,…,ωt​) of states satisfying (i) ω0=k\omega_0 = kω0​=k, (ii) ωt=n\omega_t = nωt​=n, (iii) ωi≠n\omega_i \neq nωi​=n for every index i≠ti \neq ti=t, and (iv) ωi≠0\omega_i \neq 0ωi​=0 for every index iii, including i=0i = 0i=0, of the path weight ∏i=0t−1P(ωi,ωi+1)\prod_{i=0}^{t-1} P(\omega_i, \omega_{i+1})∏i=0t−1​P(ωi​,ωi+1​) (an empty product, equal to 111, when t=0t = 0t=0), equals the real number k/nk/nk/n (real division; here n>0n > 0n>0, so this is ordinary division). Note that when k=nk = nk=n the length-zero path contributes 111 at t=0t = 0t=0, and when k=0k = 0k=0 condition (iv) excludes every path, so the series is identically 000. Second conjunct: the quantity "expected hitting time of the set {0,n}\{0, n\}{0,n} starting from kkk", defined as the infinite series ∑t=0∞qt\sum_{t=0}^{\infty} q_t∑t=0∞​qt​, where qtq_tqt​ is the finite sum, over all sequences (ω0,…,ωt)(\omega_0, \dots, \omega_t)(ω0​,…,ωt​) of states satisfying ω0=k\omega_0 = kω0​=k and ωi∉{0,n}\omega_i \notin \{0, n\}ωi​∈/{0,n} for every index iii, including i=0i = 0i=0, of the same path weight ∏i=0t−1P(ωi,ωi+1)\prod_{i=0}^{t-1} P(\omega_i, \omega_{i+1})∏i=0t−1​P(ωi​,ωi+1​), equals the real number k⋅(n−k)k \cdot (n - k)k⋅(n−k) (an ordinary product of reals; since k≤nk \le nk≤n here, n−kn - kn−k is the usual nonnegative difference). Note that when k∈{0,n}k \in \{0, n\}k∈{0,n} every term of this series vanishes, so the left side is 000. In both conjuncts the infinite series over ttt is interpreted with the convention that a series which fails to converge (is not summable) is assigned the value 000; when the series converges, the value is its ordinary sum.

Human review
  • Endorsed by Community (Bot) · Aug 21, 2026

  • Endorsed by Shuze Chen · Aug 21, 2026

    Confirmed by the mission captain (proposal self-audit).

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