The Markov chain CLT: six sufficient conditions (Jones Thm 9, mission goal)
OpenMarkovChainCLT.markov_chain_cltLet be a Markov chain with transition kernel on a state space , Harris ergodic with invariant probability distribution , and let be measurable. Write for the sample average and . Assume one of the following six conditions:
- the chain is polynomially ergodic of order with for the rate constant , and -almost surely for some ;
- the chain is polynomially ergodic of order with , and for some with ;
- the chain is geometrically ergodic and for some ;
- the chain is geometrically ergodic and ;
- the chain is geometrically ergodic, reversible with respect to (detailed balance), and ;
- the chain is uniformly ergodic and .
Then the chain satisfies the central limit theorem for : there is a single asymptotic variance such that for every initial distribution of the chain,
This is the summary theorem of the source and the goal of the mission: six practically checkable regimes, each guaranteeing honest error bars for Markov chain Monte Carlo estimates, assembled from the drift, mixing, and moment machinery of the milestones.
Formalization Note "Harris ergodic" is encoded by its total-variation characterization: is invariant for and for every starting point (equivalent to the classical aperiodic, -irreducible, positive Harris recurrent definition; the "every " quantifier is exactly the Harris property). Convergence in distribution is weak convergence of laws, and is read as the point mass at , which absorbs the source's "" caveat.
import Definitions.Def_MarkovErgodicity
import Definitions.Def_MarkovChainPathMeasure
import Mathlib.Analysis.SpecialFunctions.Log.PosLog
open MeasureTheory ProbabilityTheory Filter
open scoped ENNReal NNReal Topology ProbabilityTheory
/-- **Theorem 9** (the mission goal; Jones 2004, §4): let `X` be a Harris ergodic
Markov chain with invariant distribution `π` and `f` a Borel function. If one of
the following six conditions holds:
1. `X` is polynomially ergodic of order `m > 1` with `E_π M < ∞` and `|f| < B`
`π`-almost surely;
2. `X` is polynomially ergodic of order `m` with `E_π M < ∞` and
`E_π |f|^{2+δ} < ∞` where `mδ > 2+δ`;
3. `X` is geometrically ergodic and `E_π |f|^{2+δ} < ∞` for some `δ > 0`;
4. `X` is geometrically ergodic and `E_π [f² log⁺|f|] < ∞`;
5. `X` is geometrically ergodic, satisfies detailed balance, and `E_π f² < ∞`;
6. `X` is uniformly ergodic and `E_π f² < ∞`;
then for every initial distribution `√n (f̄_n - E_π f) →d N(0, σ_f²)`. -/
theorem MarkovChainCLT.markov_chain_clt {X : Type*} [MeasurableSpace X]
(P : Kernel X X) [IsMarkovKernel P] (π : Measure X) [IsProbabilityMeasure π]
(hP : HarrisErgodic P π) (f : X → ℝ) (hf : Measurable f)
(hcase :
(∃ m : ℝ, 1 < m ∧ PolynomiallyErgodicL1 P π m ∧
∃ B : ℝ, ∀ᵐ x ∂π, |f x| < B) ∨
(∃ m δ : ℝ, 0 < δ ∧ 2 + δ < m * δ ∧ PolynomiallyErgodicL1 P π m ∧
Integrable (fun x => |f x| ^ (2 + δ)) π) ∨
(GeometricallyErgodic P π ∧
∃ δ : ℝ, 0 < δ ∧ Integrable (fun x => |f x| ^ (2 + δ)) π) ∨
(GeometricallyErgodic P π ∧
Integrable (fun x => f x ^ 2 * Real.posLog |f x|) π) ∨
(GeometricallyErgodic P π ∧ Kernel.IsReversible P π ∧ MemLp f 2 π) ∨
(UniformlyErgodic P π ∧ MemLp f 2 π)) :
SatisfiesCLT P π f := by sorry
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What the Lean code literally says, in plain math · claude-fable-5
Setting. is an arbitrary type with a measurable-space structure; is a kernel from to assumed (typeclass) to be a Markov kernel ( a probability measure for every ); is a measure on assumed (typeclass) to be a probability measure. Hypotheses. (1) Harris ergodicity: is invariant for ( equals ) and for every , as , where is the -fold iterate ( identity kernel, ) and (no factor ; measure values sent to reals with ; real supremum with junk value if unbounded, set contains via ). (2) is measurable. (3) A six-way disjunction — at least one of the following holds. Throughout: polynomially ergodic in the sense with exponent means there exists , pointwise nonnegative and integrable with respect to , with for every and every (real number raised to the real exponent ; only constrained); geometrically ergodic means there exist and with for all (no measurability or integrability of required), , and for every and every ; uniformly ergodic means there exist reals and with for every and every (state-independent constant); (MemLp) means is -a.e. strongly measurable with ; and integrability of a function means -a.e. strong measurability with finite integral of its absolute value. The disjuncts: (A) there exists a real with such that is polynomially ergodic in the sense with exponent , and there exists a real (no positivity constraint stated) with strictly for -almost every . (B) there exist reals with and , such that is polynomially ergodic in the sense with exponent , and is integrable with respect to (real-exponent power of the nonnegative base , with ). (C) is geometrically ergodic and there exists a real such that is integrable with respect to . (D) is geometrically ergodic and is integrable with respect to , where is the ordinary square and (Real.posLog) — this integrand vanishes wherever , including where (Lean's ). (E) is geometrically ergodic, and is reversible with respect to (Kernel.IsReversible: the joint law of with , — the measure on — is invariant under swapping the coordinates, i.e. detailed balance), and . (F) is uniformly ergodic and . Conclusion ( satisfies the CLT for , unfolded): there exists a nonnegative real such that for every probability measure on — a single is claimed to work for all ; the existential over precedes the universal over — the functions converge in distribution to as under the path measure , where: averages over the chain states at times (the time- state is never used; at , Lean's and give ); the centering constant is the -mean for every initial law ; is the law on of the time-homogeneous Markov chain with transition kernel started with (, Ionescu–Tulcea construction); convergence in distribution means for every bounded continuous ; and (gaussianReal 0 v) is the normal law of mean and variance , equal to the Dirac point mass at when , so a degenerate limit is allowed.
Confirmed by the mission captain (proposal self-audit).