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The Markov chain CLT: six sufficient conditions (Jones Thm 9, mission goal)

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MarkovChainCLT.markov_chain_clt

by Shuze Chen · Aug 15, 2026 · Mathlib c5ea003 (Lean v4.30.0)

markov-chainsmcmcprobability

Let X={Xn}n≥0X = \{X_n\}_{n \ge 0}X={Xn​}n≥0​ be a Markov chain with transition kernel PPP on a state space X\mathsf{X}X, Harris ergodic with invariant probability distribution π\piπ, and let f:X→Rf : \mathsf{X} \to \mathbb{R}f:X→R be measurable. Write fˉn=n−1∑i=1nf(Xi)\bar f_n = n^{-1} \sum_{i=1}^{n} f(X_i)fˉ​n​=n−1∑i=1n​f(Xi​) for the sample average and Eπf=∫f dπE_\pi f = \int f \, d\piEπ​f=∫fdπ. Assume one of the following six conditions:

  1. the chain is polynomially ergodic of order m>1m > 1m>1 with EπM<∞E_\pi M < \inftyEπ​M<∞ for the rate constant MMM, and ∣f∣<B|f| < B∣f∣<B π\piπ-almost surely for some BBB;
  2. the chain is polynomially ergodic of order mmm with EπM<∞E_\pi M < \inftyEπ​M<∞, and Eπ∣f∣2+δ<∞E_\pi |f|^{2+\delta} < \inftyEπ​∣f∣2+δ<∞ for some δ>0\delta > 0δ>0 with mδ>2+δm\delta > 2 + \deltamδ>2+δ;
  3. the chain is geometrically ergodic and Eπ∣f∣2+δ<∞E_\pi |f|^{2+\delta} < \inftyEπ​∣f∣2+δ<∞ for some δ>0\delta > 0δ>0;
  4. the chain is geometrically ergodic and Eπ[f2log⁡+∣f∣]<∞E_\pi [f^2 \log^+ |f|] < \inftyEπ​[f2log+∣f∣]<∞;
  5. the chain is geometrically ergodic, reversible with respect to π\piπ (detailed balance), and Eπf2<∞E_\pi f^2 < \inftyEπ​f2<∞;
  6. the chain is uniformly ergodic and Eπf2<∞E_\pi f^2 < \inftyEπ​f2<∞.

Then the chain satisfies the central limit theorem for fff: there is a single asymptotic variance σf2≥0\sigma_f^2 \ge 0σf2​≥0 such that for every initial distribution of the chain,

n (fˉn−Eπf)→dN(0,σf2)(n→∞).\sqrt{n}\,\bigl(\bar f_n - E_\pi f\bigr) \xrightarrow{d} N(0, \sigma_f^2) \qquad (n \to \infty).n​(fˉ​n​−Eπ​f)d​N(0,σf2​)(n→∞).

This is the summary theorem of the source and the goal of the mission: six practically checkable regimes, each guaranteeing honest error bars for Markov chain Monte Carlo estimates, assembled from the drift, mixing, and moment machinery of the milestones.

Formalization Note "Harris ergodic" is encoded by its total-variation characterization: π\piπ is invariant for PPP and ∥Pn(x,⋅)−π∥→0\|P^n(x, \cdot) - \pi\| \to 0∥Pn(x,⋅)−π∥→0 for every starting point xxx (equivalent to the classical aperiodic, ψ\psiψ-irreducible, positive Harris recurrent definition; the "every xxx" quantifier is exactly the Harris property). Convergence in distribution is weak convergence of laws, and N(0,0)N(0, 0)N(0,0) is read as the point mass at 000, which absorbs the source's "σf2>0\sigma_f^2 > 0σf2​>0" caveat.

Preamble
import Definitions.Def_MarkovErgodicity
import Definitions.Def_MarkovChainPathMeasure
import Mathlib.Analysis.SpecialFunctions.Log.PosLog

open MeasureTheory ProbabilityTheory Filter
open scoped ENNReal NNReal Topology ProbabilityTheory

/-- **Theorem 9** (the mission goal; Jones 2004, §4): let `X` be a Harris ergodic
Markov chain with invariant distribution `π` and `f` a Borel function.  If one of
the following six conditions holds:

1. `X` is polynomially ergodic of order `m > 1` with `E_π M < ∞` and `|f| < B`
   `π`-almost surely;
2. `X` is polynomially ergodic of order `m` with `E_π M < ∞` and
   `E_π |f|^{2+δ} < ∞` where `mδ > 2+δ`;
3. `X` is geometrically ergodic and `E_π |f|^{2+δ} < ∞` for some `δ > 0`;
4. `X` is geometrically ergodic and `E_π [f² log⁺|f|] < ∞`;
5. `X` is geometrically ergodic, satisfies detailed balance, and `E_π f² < ∞`;
6. `X` is uniformly ergodic and `E_π f² < ∞`;

then for every initial distribution `√n (f̄_n - E_π f) →d N(0, σ_f²)`. -/
Formal statement
theorem MarkovChainCLT.markov_chain_clt {X : Type*} [MeasurableSpace X]
    (P : Kernel X X) [IsMarkovKernel P] (π : Measure X) [IsProbabilityMeasure π]
    (hP : HarrisErgodic P π) (f : X → ℝ) (hf : Measurable f)
    (hcase :
      (∃ m : ℝ, 1 < m ∧ PolynomiallyErgodicL1 P π m ∧
        ∃ B : ℝ, ∀ᵐ x ∂π, |f x| < B) ∨
      (∃ m δ : ℝ, 0 < δ ∧ 2 + δ < m * δ ∧ PolynomiallyErgodicL1 P π m ∧
        Integrable (fun x => |f x| ^ (2 + δ)) π) ∨
      (GeometricallyErgodic P π ∧
        ∃ δ : ℝ, 0 < δ ∧ Integrable (fun x => |f x| ^ (2 + δ)) π) ∨
      (GeometricallyErgodic P π ∧
        Integrable (fun x => f x ^ 2 * Real.posLog |f x|) π) ∨
      (GeometricallyErgodic P π ∧ Kernel.IsReversible P π ∧ MemLp f 2 π) ∨
      (UniformlyErgodic P π ∧ MemLp f 2 π)) :
    SatisfiesCLT P π f := by sorry
Source
G. L. Jones, "On the Markov Chain Central Limit Theorem", Probability Surveys 1 (2004) 299-320, arXiv math/0409112v2, Section 4, Theorem 9, the summary theorem (arXiv v2 p. 13)
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What the Lean code literally says, in plain math · claude-fable-5

Setting. XXX is an arbitrary type with a measurable-space structure; PPP is a kernel from XXX to XXX assumed (typeclass) to be a Markov kernel (P(x,⋅)P(x,\cdot)P(x,⋅) a probability measure for every xxx); π\piπ is a measure on XXX assumed (typeclass) to be a probability measure. Hypotheses. (1) Harris ergodicity: π\piπ is invariant for PPP (A↦∫XP(x,A) dπ(x)A \mapsto \int_X P(x,A)\,d\pi(x)A↦∫X​P(x,A)dπ(x) equals π\piπ) and for every x∈Xx \in Xx∈X, dTV(Pn(x,⋅),π)→0d_{TV}(P^n(x,\cdot),\pi) \to 0dTV​(Pn(x,⋅),π)→0 as n→∞n \to \inftyn→∞, where PnP^nPn is the nnn-fold iterate (P0=P^0 =P0= identity kernel, Pn+1=P∘PnP^{n+1} = P \circ P^nPn+1=P∘Pn) and dTV(μ,ν)=sup⁡{ ∣μ(A)−ν(A)∣:A measurable }d_{TV}(\mu,\nu) = \sup\{\,|\mu(A)-\nu(A)| : A \text{ measurable}\,\}dTV​(μ,ν)=sup{∣μ(A)−ν(A)∣:A measurable} (no factor 12\tfrac1221​; measure values sent to reals with ∞↦0\infty \mapsto 0∞↦0; real supremum with junk value 000 if unbounded, set contains 000 via A=∅A=\varnothingA=∅). (2) f:X→Rf : X \to \mathbb Rf:X→R is measurable. (3) A six-way disjunction — at least one of the following holds. Throughout: polynomially ergodic in the L1L^1L1 sense with exponent mmm means there exists M:X→RM : X \to \mathbb RM:X→R, pointwise nonnegative and integrable with respect to π\piπ, with dTV(Pn(x,⋅),π)≤M(x) n−md_{TV}(P^n(x,\cdot),\pi) \le M(x)\,n^{-m}dTV​(Pn(x,⋅),π)≤M(x)n−m for every xxx and every n≥1n \ge 1n≥1 (real number nnn raised to the real exponent −m-m−m; only n≥1n \ge 1n≥1 constrained); geometrically ergodic means there exist M:X→RM : X \to \mathbb RM:X→R and t∈Rt \in \mathbb Rt∈R with M(x)≥0M(x) \ge 0M(x)≥0 for all xxx (no measurability or integrability of MMM required), 0≤t<10 \le t < 10≤t<1, and dTV(Pn(x,⋅),π)≤M(x) tnd_{TV}(P^n(x,\cdot),\pi) \le M(x)\,t^ndTV​(Pn(x,⋅),π)≤M(x)tn for every xxx and every n≥1n \ge 1n≥1; uniformly ergodic means there exist reals R≥0R \ge 0R≥0 and 0≤t<10 \le t < 10≤t<1 with dTV(Pn(x,⋅),π)≤R tnd_{TV}(P^n(x,\cdot),\pi) \le R\,t^ndTV​(Pn(x,⋅),π)≤Rtn for every xxx and every n≥1n \ge 1n≥1 (state-independent constant); f∈L2(π)f \in L^2(\pi)f∈L2(π) (MemLp) means fff is π\piπ-a.e. strongly measurable with (∫∣f∣2 dπ)1/2<∞\left(\int|f|^2\,d\pi\right)^{1/2} < \infty(∫∣f∣2dπ)1/2<∞; and integrability of a function means π\piπ-a.e. strong measurability with finite integral of its absolute value. The disjuncts: (A) there exists a real mmm with 1<m1 < m1<m such that PPP is polynomially ergodic in the L1L^1L1 sense with exponent mmm, and there exists a real BBB (no positivity constraint stated) with ∣f(x)∣<B|f(x)| < B∣f(x)∣<B strictly for π\piπ-almost every xxx. (B) there exist reals m,δm, \deltam,δ with 0<δ0 < \delta0<δ and 2+δ<m δ2 + \delta < m\,\delta2+δ<mδ, such that PPP is polynomially ergodic in the L1L^1L1 sense with exponent mmm, and x↦∣f(x)∣2+δx \mapsto |f(x)|^{2+\delta}x↦∣f(x)∣2+δ is integrable with respect to π\piπ (real-exponent power of the nonnegative base ∣f(x)∣|f(x)|∣f(x)∣, with 02+δ=00^{2+\delta}=002+δ=0). (C) PPP is geometrically ergodic and there exists a real δ>0\delta > 0δ>0 such that x↦∣f(x)∣2+δx \mapsto |f(x)|^{2+\delta}x↦∣f(x)∣2+δ is integrable with respect to π\piπ. (D) PPP is geometrically ergodic and x↦f(x)2⋅log⁡+∣f(x)∣x \mapsto f(x)^2 \cdot \log^+|f(x)|x↦f(x)2⋅log+∣f(x)∣ is integrable with respect to π\piπ, where f(x)2f(x)^2f(x)2 is the ordinary square and log⁡+s=max⁡(0,log⁡s)\log^+ s = \max(0,\log s)log+s=max(0,logs) (Real.posLog) — this integrand vanishes wherever ∣f(x)∣≤1|f(x)| \le 1∣f(x)∣≤1, including where f(x)=0f(x) = 0f(x)=0 (Lean's log⁡0=0\log 0 = 0log0=0). (E) PPP is geometrically ergodic, and PPP is reversible with respect to π\piπ (Kernel.IsReversible: the joint law of (x,y)(x,y)(x,y) with x∼πx \sim \pix∼π, y∼P(x,⋅)y \sim P(x,\cdot)y∼P(x,⋅) — the measure π⊗P\pi \otimes Pπ⊗P on X×XX \times XX×X — is invariant under swapping the coordinates, i.e. detailed balance), and f∈L2(π)f \in L^2(\pi)f∈L2(π). (F) PPP is uniformly ergodic and f∈L2(π)f \in L^2(\pi)f∈L2(π). Conclusion (fff satisfies the CLT for (P,π)(P,\pi)(P,π), unfolded): there exists a nonnegative real vvv such that for every probability measure λ\lambdaλ on XXX — a single vvv is claimed to work for all λ\lambdaλ; the existential over vvv precedes the universal over λ\lambdaλ — the functions Zn(ω)=n (fˉn(ω)−∫Xf dπ)Z_n(\omega) = \sqrt{n}\,\left(\bar f_n(\omega) - \int_X f\,d\pi\right)Zn​(ω)=n​(fˉ​n​(ω)−∫X​fdπ) converge in distribution to N(0,v)\mathcal N(0,v)N(0,v) as n→∞n \to \inftyn→∞ under the path measure μλ\mu_\lambdaμλ​, where: fˉn(ω)=n−1∑i=0n−1f(ωi+1)\bar f_n(\omega) = n^{-1}\sum_{i=0}^{n-1} f(\omega_{i+1})fˉ​n​(ω)=n−1∑i=0n−1​f(ωi+1​) averages fff over the chain states at times 1,…,n1,\dots,n1,…,n (the time-000 state is never used; at n=0n=0n=0, Lean's 0−1=00^{-1}=00−1=0 and 0=0\sqrt 0=00​=0 give Z0=0Z_0=0Z0​=0); the centering constant is the π\piπ-mean ∫f dπ\int f\,d\pi∫fdπ for every initial law λ\lambdaλ; μλ\mu_\lambdaμλ​ is the law on N→X\mathbb N \to XN→X of the time-homogeneous Markov chain with transition kernel PPP started with ω0∼λ\omega_0 \sim \lambdaω0​∼λ (ωn+1∼P(ωn,⋅)\omega_{n+1} \sim P(\omega_n,\cdot)ωn+1​∼P(ωn​,⋅), Ionescu–Tulcea construction); convergence in distribution means ∫g(Zn) dμλ→∫Rg dN(0,v)\int g(Z_n)\,d\mu_\lambda \to \int_{\mathbb R} g\,d\mathcal N(0,v)∫g(Zn​)dμλ​→∫R​gdN(0,v) for every bounded continuous g:R→Rg : \mathbb R \to \mathbb Rg:R→R; and N(0,v)\mathcal N(0,v)N(0,v) (gaussianReal 0 v) is the normal law of mean 000 and variance vvv, equal to the Dirac point mass at 000 when v=0v = 0v=0, so a degenerate limit is allowed.

Human review
  • Endorsed by Community (Bot) · Aug 15, 2026

  • Endorsed by Shuze Chen · Aug 15, 2026

    Confirmed by the mission captain (proposal self-audit).

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