Doukhan–Massart–Rio CLT: , (Jones Thm 6)
OpenMarkovChainCLT.clt_of_exp_alpha_of_log_momentLet be a centered, strictly stationary sequence of real random variables on a probability space, with partial sums . Suppose the strong mixing coefficients decay exponentially, for some , and
Then the series
converges absolutely, and if then as .
This Doukhan–Massart–Rio theorem trades the moment for a barely-more-than-second moment when mixing is exponentially fast — the sharpest sequence-level input available for geometrically ergodic chains.
Formalization Note The stated moment already implies , so square-integrability is not assumed separately. Sequences are indexed from , so and the past -algebras used by the mixing coefficients start at ; under strict stationarity this agrees with the source, which indexes from . Absolute convergence of the covariance series is expressed as unconditional summability, and the limit statement is weak convergence of the laws of .
import Definitions.Def_MixingCoefficients
import Mathlib.MeasureTheory.Function.ConvergenceInDistribution
import Mathlib.Probability.Distributions.Gaussian.Real
import Mathlib.Analysis.SpecialFunctions.Log.PosLog
open MeasureTheory ProbabilityTheory Filter
open scoped ENNReal NNReal Topology ProbabilityTheory
/-- **Theorem 6** (Doukhan–Massart–Rio 1994): a centered strictly stationary
sequence with exponentially fast strong mixing and `E[Y₀² log⁺|Y₀|] < ∞` satisfies
`σ² = E[Y₀²] + 2 ∑_{k≥1} E[Y₀ Y_k]` (absolutely convergent), and if `σ² > 0` then
`S_n / √n →d N(0, σ²)`. -/
theorem MarkovChainCLT.clt_of_exp_alpha_of_log_moment {Ω : Type*} [MeasurableSpace Ω]
(P : Measure Ω) [IsProbabilityMeasure P] (Y : ℕ → Ω → ℝ)
(hY : ∀ n, Measurable (Y n)) (hstat : IsStrictlyStationary P Y)
(hcent : ∫ ω, Y 0 ω ∂P = 0)
(c a : ℝ) (ha0 : 0 ≤ a) (ha1 : a < 1)
(hα : ∀ n, alphaMixingCoef P Y n ≤ c * a ^ n)
(hmom : Integrable (fun ω => (Y 0 ω) ^ 2 * Real.posLog |Y 0 ω|) P) :
Summable (fun k : ℕ => ∫ ω, Y 0 ω * Y (k + 1) ω ∂P) ∧
(0 < seqAsymptoticVariance P Y →
TendstoInDistribution
(fun (n : ℕ) ω => (Real.sqrt n)⁻¹ * ∑ i ∈ Finset.range n, Y i ω)
atTop (id : ℝ → ℝ) (fun _ => P)
(gaussianReal 0 (seqAsymptoticVariance P Y).toNNReal)) := by sorry
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What the Lean code literally says, in plain math · claude-fable-5
Let be a type carrying a σ-algebra, a measure on assumed to be a probability measure (), and a sequence of functions. Standing hypotheses: each is measurable; the sequence is strictly stationary, meaning that for every the pushforward of under equals the pushforward of under , as measures on the sequence space with the product σ-algebra (the whole shifted sequence has the same joint law as the original; Lean's pushforward returns the zero measure for a non-a.e.-measurable map, but measurability of each makes these sequence maps measurable); and , where is Lean's Bochner integral, equal to by convention when the integrand is not integrable (so this centering hypothesis is automatically satisfied by a non-integrable ). For , the α-mixing coefficient used here is , where is the σ-algebra on generated by the random variables with (the supremum of the pullback σ-algebras over ), is the σ-algebra generated by the with , and measure values are converted from extended nonnegative reals to reals (, irrelevant for a probability measure). The supremum ranges over the split point as well as over the event pair, and the index gap between the past block and the future block is exactly (so allows overlapping blocks at index ). It is the real-number , which by Lean convention is for an empty or unbounded set; here the defining set contains (take ) and is bounded above by , so is a genuine supremum lying in . Further hypotheses: real numbers and with and — note that no sign or size condition is imposed on — such that for every , with the ordinary -fold product (, so the instance reads ). Since each , this decay hypothesis is unsatisfiable when (the theorem is then vacuous), and in the edge case it forces for every (as there). The moment hypothesis: the function is integrable with respect to , where is Lean's Real.posLog — the positive part of the logarithm, equal to on (Lean's is itself on nonpositive arguments, which does not matter here since the argument is nonnegative). The conclusion is the conjunction of two statements. (1) The real-valued family (indexed by , so it comprises the lag- covariance integrals but not the lag- one; each integral is by convention if fails to be integrable) is summable in , i.e. its finite partial sums converge to some real limit along the net of finite subsets — on the reals this is unconditional summability, equivalent to absolute convergence. (2) A guarded implication: set , where the infinite sum is Lean's tsum, equal to by convention if the family is not summable (a degeneracy ruled out whenever conjunct (1) holds). If , then the random variables converge in distribution along to the Gaussian law with mean and variance : the variance parameter is truncated at (Real.toNNReal), which under the guard is just ; gaussianReal 0 v is the normal law on , degenerating to the point mass at when (excluded by the guard). Convergence in distribution (TendstoInDistribution, with the limit presented as the identity map on carrying the Gaussian measure, whose law is that Gaussian itself) means the laws converge weakly to : for every bounded continuous . Degenerate index: in Lean, so .
Confirmed by the mission captain (proposal self-audit).