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Ibragimov–Linnik CLT, bounded case: ∣Y∣<B|Y| < B∣Y∣<B a.s., ∑α(n)<∞\sum \alpha(n) < \infty∑α(n)<∞ (Jones Thm 5(i))

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MarkovChainCLT.clt_of_bounded_of_summable_alpha

by Shuze Chen · Aug 15, 2026 · Mathlib c5ea003 (Lean v4.30.0)

central-limit-theoremmixing-processesprobability

Let Y={Yn}n≥0Y = \{Y_n\}_{n \ge 0}Y={Yn​}n≥0​ be a centered, strictly stationary sequence of real random variables on a probability space, with partial sums Sn=∑i<nYiS_n = \sum_{i < n} Y_iSn​=∑i<n​Yi​. Suppose there is a constant BBB with ∣Yn∣<B|Y_n| < B∣Yn​∣<B almost surely for every nnn, and the strong mixing coefficients are summable, ∑nα(n)<∞\sum_n \alpha(n) < \infty∑n​α(n)<∞.

Then the series

σ2  =  E[Y02]  +  2∑k≥1E[Y0Yk]\sigma^2 \;=\; E[Y_0^2] \;+\; 2 \sum_{k \ge 1} E[Y_0 Y_k]σ2=E[Y02​]+2k≥1∑​E[Y0​Yk​]

converges absolutely, and if σ2>0\sigma^2 > 0σ2>0 then Sn/n→dN(0,σ2)S_n / \sqrt{n} \xrightarrow{d} N(0, \sigma^2)Sn​/n​d​N(0,σ2) as n→∞n \to \inftyn→∞.

This is the bounded case of the Ibragimov–Linnik central limit theorem, the engine behind the polynomial-ergodicity CLT for bounded functionals (goal condition 1) — the regime of posterior probabilities in Bayesian MCMC.

Formalization Note Sequences are indexed from 000, so Sn=Y0+⋯+Yn−1S_n = Y_0 + \cdots + Y_{n-1}Sn​=Y0​+⋯+Yn−1​ and the past σ\sigmaσ-algebras used by the mixing coefficients start at Y0Y_0Y0​; under strict stationarity this agrees with the source, which indexes from 111. Absolute convergence of the covariance series is expressed as unconditional summability, and the limit statement is weak convergence of the laws of Sn/nS_n/\sqrt{n}Sn​/n​.

Preamble
import Definitions.Def_MixingCoefficients
import Mathlib.MeasureTheory.Function.ConvergenceInDistribution
import Mathlib.Probability.Distributions.Gaussian.Real

open MeasureTheory ProbabilityTheory Filter
open scoped ENNReal NNReal Topology ProbabilityTheory

/-- **Theorem 5, condition 1** (Ibragimov 1962; Ibragimov–Linnik 1971): a centered
strictly stationary strongly mixing sequence that is uniformly bounded and has
summable strong mixing coefficients satisfies
`σ² = E[Y₀²] + 2 ∑_{k≥1} E[Y₀ Y_k]` (absolutely convergent), and if `σ² > 0` then
`S_n / √n →d N(0, σ²)`. -/
Formal statement
theorem MarkovChainCLT.clt_of_bounded_of_summable_alpha {Ω : Type*} [MeasurableSpace Ω]
    (P : Measure Ω) [IsProbabilityMeasure P] (Y : ℕ → Ω → ℝ)
    (hY : ∀ n, Measurable (Y n)) (hstat : IsStrictlyStationary P Y)
    (hcent : ∫ ω, Y 0 ω ∂P = 0)
    (B : ℝ) (hB : ∀ n, ∀ᵐ ω ∂P, |Y n ω| < B)
    (hα : Summable (fun n => alphaMixingCoef P Y n)) :
    Summable (fun k : ℕ => ∫ ω, Y 0 ω * Y (k + 1) ω ∂P) ∧
      (0 < seqAsymptoticVariance P Y →
        TendstoInDistribution
          (fun (n : ℕ) ω => (Real.sqrt n)⁻¹ * ∑ i ∈ Finset.range n, Y i ω)
          atTop (id : ℝ → ℝ) (fun _ => P)
          (gaussianReal 0 (seqAsymptoticVariance P Y).toNNReal)) := by sorry
Source
G. L. Jones, "On the Markov Chain Central Limit Theorem", Probability Surveys 1 (2004) 299-320, arXiv math/0409112v2, Theorem 5, condition 1 (arXiv v2 p. 9); originals: I. A. Ibragimov (1962); Ibragimov & Linnik (1971), Ch. 18
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What the Lean code literally says, in plain math · claude-fable-5

Let Ω\OmegaΩ be a type carrying a σ-algebra, PPP a measure on Ω\OmegaΩ assumed to be a probability measure (P(Ω)=1P(\Omega)=1P(Ω)=1), and Y0,Y1,Y2,⋯:Ω→RY_0, Y_1, Y_2, \dots : \Omega \to \mathbb{R}Y0​,Y1​,Y2​,⋯:Ω→R a sequence of functions. Standing hypotheses: each YnY_nYn​ is measurable; the sequence is strictly stationary, meaning that for every k∈Nk \in \mathbb{N}k∈N the pushforward of PPP under ω↦(Yn+k(ω))n∈N\omega \mapsto (Y_{n+k}(\omega))_{n \in \mathbb{N}}ω↦(Yn+k​(ω))n∈N​ equals the pushforward of PPP under ω↦(Yn(ω))n∈N\omega \mapsto (Y_n(\omega))_{n \in \mathbb{N}}ω↦(Yn​(ω))n∈N​, as measures on the sequence space RN\mathbb{R}^{\mathbb{N}}RN with the product σ-algebra (the whole shifted sequence has the same joint law as the original; Lean's pushforward returns the zero measure for a non-a.e.-measurable map, but measurability of each YnY_nYn​ makes these sequence maps measurable); and ∫Y0 dP=0\int Y_0 \, dP = 0∫Y0​dP=0, where ∫\int∫ is Lean's Bochner integral, equal to 000 by convention when the integrand is not integrable (so this centering hypothesis is automatically satisfied by a non-integrable Y0Y_0Y0​). Further hypotheses: there is a fixed real number BBB (no sign condition is imposed on BBB) such that for each nnn, ∣Yn(ω)∣<B|Y_n(\omega)| < B∣Yn​(ω)∣<B for PPP-almost every ω\omegaω — a strict inequality, with the almost-everywhere quantifier taken separately for each nnn; since ∣Yn(ω)∣≥0|Y_n(\omega)| \ge 0∣Yn​(ω)∣≥0 and PPP is a probability measure, this hypothesis is unsatisfiable when B≤0B \le 0B≤0, making the theorem vacuously true for such BBB. For n∈Nn \in \mathbb{N}n∈N, the α-mixing coefficient used here is α(n):=sup⁡{ ∣P(A∩B)−P(A) P(B)∣  :  k∈N, A∈F≤k, B∈F≥k+n }\alpha(n) := \sup\{\, |P(A \cap B) - P(A)\,P(B)| \;:\; k \in \mathbb{N},\ A \in \mathcal{F}_{\le k},\ B \in \mathcal{F}_{\ge k+n} \,\}α(n):=sup{∣P(A∩B)−P(A)P(B)∣:k∈N, A∈F≤k​, B∈F≥k+n​}, where F≤k\mathcal{F}_{\le k}F≤k​ is the σ-algebra on Ω\OmegaΩ generated by the random variables YiY_iYi​ with i≤ki \le ki≤k (the supremum of the pullback σ-algebras σ(Yi)\sigma(Y_i)σ(Yi​) over i≤ki \le ki≤k), F≥k+n\mathcal{F}_{\ge k+n}F≥k+n​ is the σ-algebra generated by the YiY_iYi​ with i≥k+ni \ge k+ni≥k+n, and measure values are converted from extended nonnegative reals to reals (∞↦0\infty \mapsto 0∞↦0, irrelevant for a probability measure). The supremum ranges over the split point kkk as well as over the event pair, and the index gap between the past block {0,…,k}\{0,\dots,k\}{0,…,k} and the future block {k+n,k+n+1,… }\{k+n, k+n+1, \dots\}{k+n,k+n+1,…} is exactly nnn (so α(0)\alpha(0)α(0) allows overlapping blocks at index kkk). It is the real-number sup⁡\supsup, which by Lean convention is 000 for an empty or unbounded set; here the defining set contains 000 (take A=B=∅A = B = \emptysetA=B=∅) and is bounded above by 111, so α(n)\alpha(n)α(n) is a genuine supremum lying in [0,1][0,1][0,1]. The mixing hypothesis is that the family n↦α(n)n \mapsto \alpha(n)n↦α(n) is summable in R\mathbb{R}R (its finite partial sums converge along the net of finite subsets — unconditional, equivalently absolute, summability). The conclusion is the conjunction of two statements. (1) The real-valued family k↦∫Y0 Yk+1 dPk \mapsto \int Y_0\, Y_{k+1} \, dPk↦∫Y0​Yk+1​dP (indexed by k∈Nk \in \mathbb{N}k∈N, so it comprises the lag-1,2,3,…1, 2, 3, \dots1,2,3,… covariance integrals but not the lag-000 one; each integral is 000 by convention if Y0Yk+1Y_0 Y_{k+1}Y0​Yk+1​ fails to be integrable) is summable in R\mathbb{R}R, i.e. its finite partial sums converge to some real limit along the net of finite subsets — on the reals this is unconditional summability, equivalent to absolute convergence. (2) A guarded implication: set σ2:=∫Y02 dP+2∑k=0∞∫Y0 Yk+1 dP\sigma^2 := \int Y_0^2 \, dP + 2 \sum_{k=0}^{\infty} \int Y_0\, Y_{k+1}\, dPσ2:=∫Y02​dP+2∑k=0∞​∫Y0​Yk+1​dP, where the infinite sum is Lean's tsum, equal to 000 by convention if the family is not summable (a degeneracy ruled out whenever conjunct (1) holds). If 0<σ20 < \sigma^20<σ2, then the random variables Xn(ω):=(n)−1∑i=0n−1Yi(ω)X_n(\omega) := (\sqrt{n})^{-1} \sum_{i=0}^{n-1} Y_i(\omega)Xn​(ω):=(n​)−1∑i=0n−1​Yi​(ω) converge in distribution along n→∞n \to \inftyn→∞ to the Gaussian law with mean 000 and variance max⁡(σ2,0)\max(\sigma^2, 0)max(σ2,0): the variance parameter is σ2\sigma^2σ2 truncated at 000 (Real.toNNReal), which under the guard 0<σ20 < \sigma^20<σ2 is just σ2\sigma^2σ2; gaussianReal 0 v is the normal law N(0,v)\mathcal{N}(0, v)N(0,v) on R\mathbb{R}R, degenerating to the point mass at 000 when v=0v = 0v=0 (excluded by the guard). Convergence in distribution (TendstoInDistribution, with the limit presented as the identity map on R\mathbb{R}R carrying the Gaussian measure, whose law is that Gaussian itself) means the laws P∘Xn−1P \circ X_n^{-1}P∘Xn−1​ converge weakly to N(0,σ2)\mathcal{N}(0, \sigma^2)N(0,σ2): ∫f(Xn) dP→∫f dN(0,σ2)\int f(X_n)\, dP \to \int f \, d\mathcal{N}(0,\sigma^2)∫f(Xn​)dP→∫fdN(0,σ2) for every bounded continuous f:R→Rf : \mathbb{R} \to \mathbb{R}f:R→R. Degenerate index: (0)−1=0(\sqrt{0})^{-1} = 0(0​)−1=0 in Lean, so X0≡0X_0 \equiv 0X0​≡0.

Human review
  • Endorsed by Community (Bot) · Aug 15, 2026

  • Endorsed by Shuze Chen · Aug 15, 2026

    Confirmed by the mission captain (proposal self-audit).

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