Ibragimov–Linnik CLT, bounded case: a.s., (Jones Thm 5(i))
OpenMarkovChainCLT.clt_of_bounded_of_summable_alphaLet be a centered, strictly stationary sequence of real random variables on a probability space, with partial sums . Suppose there is a constant with almost surely for every , and the strong mixing coefficients are summable, .
Then the series
converges absolutely, and if then as .
This is the bounded case of the Ibragimov–Linnik central limit theorem, the engine behind the polynomial-ergodicity CLT for bounded functionals (goal condition 1) — the regime of posterior probabilities in Bayesian MCMC.
Formalization Note Sequences are indexed from , so and the past -algebras used by the mixing coefficients start at ; under strict stationarity this agrees with the source, which indexes from . Absolute convergence of the covariance series is expressed as unconditional summability, and the limit statement is weak convergence of the laws of .
import Definitions.Def_MixingCoefficients
import Mathlib.MeasureTheory.Function.ConvergenceInDistribution
import Mathlib.Probability.Distributions.Gaussian.Real
open MeasureTheory ProbabilityTheory Filter
open scoped ENNReal NNReal Topology ProbabilityTheory
/-- **Theorem 5, condition 1** (Ibragimov 1962; Ibragimov–Linnik 1971): a centered
strictly stationary strongly mixing sequence that is uniformly bounded and has
summable strong mixing coefficients satisfies
`σ² = E[Y₀²] + 2 ∑_{k≥1} E[Y₀ Y_k]` (absolutely convergent), and if `σ² > 0` then
`S_n / √n →d N(0, σ²)`. -/
theorem MarkovChainCLT.clt_of_bounded_of_summable_alpha {Ω : Type*} [MeasurableSpace Ω]
(P : Measure Ω) [IsProbabilityMeasure P] (Y : ℕ → Ω → ℝ)
(hY : ∀ n, Measurable (Y n)) (hstat : IsStrictlyStationary P Y)
(hcent : ∫ ω, Y 0 ω ∂P = 0)
(B : ℝ) (hB : ∀ n, ∀ᵐ ω ∂P, |Y n ω| < B)
(hα : Summable (fun n => alphaMixingCoef P Y n)) :
Summable (fun k : ℕ => ∫ ω, Y 0 ω * Y (k + 1) ω ∂P) ∧
(0 < seqAsymptoticVariance P Y →
TendstoInDistribution
(fun (n : ℕ) ω => (Real.sqrt n)⁻¹ * ∑ i ∈ Finset.range n, Y i ω)
atTop (id : ℝ → ℝ) (fun _ => P)
(gaussianReal 0 (seqAsymptoticVariance P Y).toNNReal)) := by sorry
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What the Lean code literally says, in plain math · claude-fable-5
Let be a type carrying a σ-algebra, a measure on assumed to be a probability measure (), and a sequence of functions. Standing hypotheses: each is measurable; the sequence is strictly stationary, meaning that for every the pushforward of under equals the pushforward of under , as measures on the sequence space with the product σ-algebra (the whole shifted sequence has the same joint law as the original; Lean's pushforward returns the zero measure for a non-a.e.-measurable map, but measurability of each makes these sequence maps measurable); and , where is Lean's Bochner integral, equal to by convention when the integrand is not integrable (so this centering hypothesis is automatically satisfied by a non-integrable ). Further hypotheses: there is a fixed real number (no sign condition is imposed on ) such that for each , for -almost every — a strict inequality, with the almost-everywhere quantifier taken separately for each ; since and is a probability measure, this hypothesis is unsatisfiable when , making the theorem vacuously true for such . For , the α-mixing coefficient used here is , where is the σ-algebra on generated by the random variables with (the supremum of the pullback σ-algebras over ), is the σ-algebra generated by the with , and measure values are converted from extended nonnegative reals to reals (, irrelevant for a probability measure). The supremum ranges over the split point as well as over the event pair, and the index gap between the past block and the future block is exactly (so allows overlapping blocks at index ). It is the real-number , which by Lean convention is for an empty or unbounded set; here the defining set contains (take ) and is bounded above by , so is a genuine supremum lying in . The mixing hypothesis is that the family is summable in (its finite partial sums converge along the net of finite subsets — unconditional, equivalently absolute, summability). The conclusion is the conjunction of two statements. (1) The real-valued family (indexed by , so it comprises the lag- covariance integrals but not the lag- one; each integral is by convention if fails to be integrable) is summable in , i.e. its finite partial sums converge to some real limit along the net of finite subsets — on the reals this is unconditional summability, equivalent to absolute convergence. (2) A guarded implication: set , where the infinite sum is Lean's tsum, equal to by convention if the family is not summable (a degeneracy ruled out whenever conjunct (1) holds). If , then the random variables converge in distribution along to the Gaussian law with mean and variance : the variance parameter is truncated at (Real.toNNReal), which under the guard is just ; gaussianReal 0 v is the normal law on , degenerating to the point mass at when (excluded by the guard). Convergence in distribution (TendstoInDistribution, with the limit presented as the identity map on carrying the Gaussian measure, whose law is that Gaussian itself) means the laws converge weakly to : for every bounded continuous . Degenerate index: in Lean, so .
Confirmed by the mission captain (proposal self-audit).