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JAO equation (34) for a two-class MDP: the reward collected under a planting exceeds the reference reward by at most ε2δ\frac{\varepsilon}{2\delta}2δε​ times the plays of the planted pair

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BanditAlgorithm.jao_two_class_reward_le_reference_plus_planted_plays

by Grace · Aug 6, 2026 · Mathlib c5ea003 (Lean v4.30.0)

markov-decision-processesreinforcement-learning

The two-class planted gadget. The MDP is given by its defining equations rather than through an auxiliary definition. The data are a class map ρ:S→{0,1}\rho : S \to \{0,1\}ρ:S→{0,1}, an escape map up\mathrm{up}up, a return map down\mathrm{down}down and a navigation map nav\mathrm{nav}nav, and MMM satisfies: the reward is the class, r(s,b)=ρ(s)r(s,b) = \rho(s)r(s,b)=ρ(s); from a class-000 state sss every action bbb goes to the class-111 state up(s)\mathrm{up}(s)up(s) with probability δ+ε [ (s,b)=(s∗,b∗) ]\delta + \varepsilon\,[\,(s,b) = (s^*,b^*)\,]δ+ε[(s,b)=(s∗,b∗)] and to the class-000 state nav(s,b)\mathrm{nav}(s,b)nav(s,b) otherwise; from a class-111 state sss every action goes to the class-000 state down(s)\mathrm{down}(s)down(s) with probability δ\deltaδ and stays at sss otherwise. Every row is supported on two distinct states whose masses sum to 111, so the transition function is pinned down completely. The reference MDP M0M_0M0​ is the same shape with ε=0\varepsilon = 0ε=0. For S=2S = 2S=2 and ρ=id\rho = \mathrm{id}ρ=id this is JAO Figure 3 with D′=1/δD' = 1/\deltaD′=1/δ; for S>2S > 2S>2 it is the composite of Figure 4, its class-000 states being the s∘(i)s_\circ^{(i)}s∘(i)​.

The whole of JAO Section 6 is run at this level of generality, on the composite MDP itself rather than on the collapsed two-state MDP they pass to on p. 1583. That reduction is not available as an inequality between regrets: the simulating policy would have to be produced before the planting is chosen, and it sees neither which copy the composite is in nor which of the AAA actions was played. Working with the class in place of the state avoids it, and no step of the argument is lost.

Throughout, the initial state s0s_0s0​ is arbitrary and of either class.

Statement. For 0<ε≤δ≤130 < \varepsilon \le \delta \le \tfrac130<ε≤δ≤31​, every horizon TTT, every policy π\piπ and every initial state s0s_0s0​,

Ea[reward]  ≤  Eunif[reward]+ε2δ Ea[N(s∗,b∗)],\mathbb{E}_{a}\bigl[\text{reward}\bigr] \;\le\; \mathbb{E}_{\mathrm{unif}}\bigl[\text{reward}\bigr] + \frac{\varepsilon}{2\delta}\,\mathbb{E}_{a}\bigl[N_{(s^*,b^*)}\bigr],Ea​[reward]≤Eunif​[reward]+2δε​Ea​[N(s∗,b∗)​],

where Ea\mathbb{E}_aEa​ is the expectation under the planted MDP and Eunif\mathbb{E}_{\mathrm{unif}}Eunif​ that under the reference MDP, both run against the same policy from the same initial state, and N(s∗,b∗)N_{(s^*,b^*)}N(s∗,b∗)​ counts the rounds in which the planted pair is played.

This is equation (34) of JAO (p. 1583) in the form the rest of the argument consumes, but obtained by a different and shorter route. Write W(n)W(n)W(n) for the probability that the state of round n+1n+1n+1 has class 111. Since the reward is the class indicator, the total expected reward is ∑n<TW(n)\sum_{n<T} W(n)∑n<T​W(n). Conditioning on a single step and using that the escape probability is δ\deltaδ off the planted pair and δ+ε\delta + \varepsilonδ+ε on it, while the return probability is δ\deltaδ everywhere,

W(n+1)=δ+(1−2δ)W(n)+ε Q(n),W(n+1) = \delta + (1-2\delta)W(n) + \varepsilon\,Q(n),W(n+1)=δ+(1−2δ)W(n)+εQ(n),

with Q(n)Q(n)Q(n) the probability that round n+1n+1n+1 plays the planted pair. The reference obeys the same recursion with Q≡0Q \equiv 0Q≡0 and the same initial value W0(0)=ρ(s0)W_0(0) = \rho(s_0)W0​(0)=ρ(s0​), so the difference d(n)=W(n)−W0(n)d(n) = W(n) - W_0(n)d(n)=W(n)−W0​(n) satisfies d(0)=0d(0) = 0d(0)=0 and d(n+1)=(1−2δ)d(n)+εQ(n)d(n+1) = (1-2\delta)d(n) + \varepsilon Q(n)d(n+1)=(1−2δ)d(n)+εQ(n). Summing that over n<Tn < Tn<T telescopes, because ∑n<Td(n+1)=∑n<Td(n)+d(T)−d(0)\sum_{n<T} d(n+1) = \sum_{n<T} d(n) + d(T) - d(0)∑n<T​d(n+1)=∑n<T​d(n)+d(T)−d(0), and gives

2δ∑n<Td(n)  =  ε∑n<TQ(n)−d(T)  ≤  ε Ea[N(s∗,b∗)],2\delta \sum_{n<T} d(n) \;=\; \varepsilon \sum_{n<T} Q(n) - d(T) \;\le\; \varepsilon\,\mathbb{E}_a[N_{(s^*,b^*)}],2δn<T∑​d(n)=εn<T∑​Q(n)−d(T)≤εEa​[N(s∗,b∗)​],

using d(T)≥0d(T) \ge 0d(T)≥0, which follows from the recursion by induction. JAO instead bound Ea[N∘]≤Eunif[N∘]\mathbb{E}_a[N_\circ] \le \mathbb{E}_{\mathrm{unif}}[N_\circ]Ea​[N∘​]≤Eunif​[N∘​] by a stochastic-domination coupling between the two MDPs; the telescoping identity removes that step entirely, and it is also what makes the statement work from an arbitrary initial state, since the two recursions start from the same value whatever ρ(s0)\rho(s_0)ρ(s0​) is.

Preamble
import Mathlib.Data.Real.Sqrt
import Mathlib.Analysis.SpecialFunctions.Log.Basic
import Definitions.Def_UCRL2ConfidenceSets

open MeasureTheory ProbabilityTheory
Formal statement
theorem BanditAlgorithm.jao_two_class_reward_le_reference_plus_planted_plays {S A : ℕ}
    (δ ε : ℝ) (hδ0 : 0 < δ) (hδ : δ ≤ 1 / 3) (hε0 : 0 < ε) (hεδ : ε ≤ δ)
    (ρ : Fin S → ℝ) (up down : Fin S → Fin S) (nav : Fin S → Fin A → Fin S)
    (sStar : Fin S) (bStar : Fin A) (M M₀ : FiniteMDP S A)
    (hstar : ρ sStar = 0)
    (hrM : ∀ s b, M.r s b = ρ s)
    (hrow0M : ∀ s b, ρ s = 0 →
        ρ (up s) = 1 ∧ ρ (nav s b) = 0 ∧ up s ≠ nav s b ∧
        (M.P s b (up s) : ℝ) = δ + (if (s, b) = (sStar, bStar) then ε else 0) ∧
        (M.P s b (nav s b) : ℝ) = 1 - δ - (if (s, b) = (sStar, bStar) then ε else 0))
    (hrow1M : ∀ s b, ρ s = 1 →
        ρ (down s) = 0 ∧ down s ≠ s ∧
        (M.P s b (down s) : ℝ) = δ ∧ (M.P s b s : ℝ) = 1 - δ)
    (hrM₀ : ∀ s b, M₀.r s b = ρ s)
    (hrow0M₀ : ∀ s b, ρ s = 0 →
        ρ (up s) = 1 ∧ ρ (nav s b) = 0 ∧ up s ≠ nav s b ∧
        (M₀.P s b (up s) : ℝ) = δ ∧
        (M₀.P s b (nav s b) : ℝ) = 1 - δ)
    (hrow1M₀ : ∀ s b, ρ s = 1 →
        ρ (down s) = 0 ∧ down s ≠ s ∧
        (M₀.P s b (down s) : ℝ) = δ ∧ (M₀.P s b s : ℝ) = 1 - δ)
    (T : ℕ) (π : MDPPolicy S A) (s₀ : Fin S) :
    (∫ h, mdpTrajectoryReward M h ∂(mdpMeasure M (mdpStateDirac s₀) π T))
      ≤ (∫ h, mdpTrajectoryReward M₀ h ∂(mdpMeasure M₀ (mdpStateDirac s₀) π T))
        + (ε / (2 * δ))
            * ∫ h, (mdpVisitCount h T sStar bStar : ℝ)
                ∂(mdpMeasure M (mdpStateDirac s₀) π T) := by
  sorry
Source
Jaksch, Ortner & Auer, "Near-optimal Regret Bounds for Reinforcement Learning", JMLR 11 (2010) 1563-1600, Section 6 (pp. 1583-1586): equations (34)-(37), Lemma 13 and the optimal-gain computation. Lemma 13 is adapted from Auer, Cesa-Bianchi, Freund & Schapire, "The Nonstochastic Multiarmed Bandit Problem", SIAM J. Comput. 32 (2002) 48-77, Theorem A.2.

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