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Strict stationarity; the α\alphaα-, ρ\rhoρ-, φ\varphiφ-mixing coefficients; asymptotic variance

Definition
MixingCoefficients

by Shuze Chen · Aug 15, 2026 · Mathlib c5ea003 (Lean v4.30.0)

central-limit-theoremmixing-processesprobability

The classical dependence coefficients for a sequence Y0,Y1,Y2,…Y_0, Y_1, Y_2, \dotsY0​,Y1​,Y2​,… of random variables on a probability space, with Fjk=σ(Yj,…,Yk)\mathcal{F}_j^k = \sigma(Y_j, \dots, Y_k)Fjk​=σ(Yj​,…,Yk​) and Fk∞=σ(Yk,Yk+1,… )\mathcal{F}_k^{\infty} = \sigma(Y_k, Y_{k+1}, \dots)Fk∞​=σ(Yk​,Yk+1​,…).

The sequence is strictly stationary if for every kkk the shifted sequence (Yn+k)n≥0(Y_{n+k})_{n \ge 0}(Yn+k​)n≥0​ has the same law, as a random sequence, as (Yn)n≥0(Y_n)_{n \ge 0}(Yn​)n≥0​.

The strong (α\alphaα-) mixing coefficient at lag nnn (source, Definition 1):

α(n)=sup⁡k  sup⁡{ ∣P(A∩B)−P(A)P(B)∣  :  A∈F0k,  B∈Fk+n∞ }.\alpha(n) = \sup_{k} \; \sup\bigl\{\, |P(A \cap B) - P(A)P(B)| \;:\; A \in \mathcal{F}_0^k, \; B \in \mathcal{F}_{k+n}^{\infty} \,\bigr\}.α(n)=ksup​sup{∣P(A∩B)−P(A)P(B)∣:A∈F0k​,B∈Fk+n∞​}.

The ρ\rhoρ-mixing coefficient (Definition 2): ρ(n)=sup⁡∣corr(U,V)∣\rho(n) = \sup |\mathrm{corr}(U, V)|ρ(n)=sup∣corr(U,V)∣, the supremum over kkk and over square-integrable random variables UUU measurable with respect to F0k\mathcal{F}_0^kF0k​ and VVV measurable with respect to Fk+n∞\mathcal{F}_{k+n}^{\infty}Fk+n∞​.

The uniform (φ\varphiφ-) mixing coefficient (Definition 3):

φ(n)=sup⁡k  sup⁡{ ∣P(B∣A)−P(B)∣  :  A∈F0k,  P(A)≠0,  B∈Fk+n∞ }.\varphi(n) = \sup_{k} \; \sup\bigl\{\, |P(B \mid A) - P(B)| \;:\; A \in \mathcal{F}_0^k, \; P(A) \neq 0, \; B \in \mathcal{F}_{k+n}^{\infty} \,\bigr\}.φ(n)=ksup​sup{∣P(B∣A)−P(B)∣:A∈F0k​,P(A)=0,B∈Fk+n∞​}.

The asymptotic variance of a centered stationary sequence: σ2=E[Y02]+2∑k≥1E[Y0Yk]\sigma^2 = E[Y_0^2] + 2 \sum_{k \ge 1} E[Y_0 Y_k]σ2=E[Y02​]+2∑k≥1​E[Y0​Yk​]. A sequence (Zn)(Z_n)(Zn​) is bounded in probability if for every ε>0\varepsilon > 0ε>0 there is KKK with P(∣Zn∣>K)≤εP(|Z_n| > K) \le \varepsilonP(∣Zn​∣>K)≤ε for all nnn.

These notions carry the classical CLTs for dependent sequences (Ibragimov–Linnik, Doukhan–Massart–Rio, Billingsley) and connect Markov chain ergodicity to them; none previously existed on the platform and all are reusable for general processes.

Formalization Note Sequences are indexed from 000, so the source's F1k\mathcal{F}_1^kF1k​ appears here as F0k\mathcal{F}_0^kF0k​; under strict stationarity the notions agree. Each coefficient is a real supremum over the indicated (sub-σ\sigmaσ-algebra measurable) events or random variables; correlations of degenerate pairs contribute 000.

Definition code
import Mathlib.Probability.Moments.Covariance
import Mathlib.Probability.Moments.Variance
import Mathlib.Analysis.SpecialFunctions.Sqrt

/-!
Strict stationarity, the three classical mixing coefficients (α, ρ, φ) of a
sequence of random variables, the asymptotic variance series, and boundedness
in probability.

Source: Galin L. Jones, *On the Markov Chain Central Limit Theorem*,
Probability Surveys 1 (2004) 299-320 (arXiv math/0409112v2), §3
(Definitions 1-3) and §4 (the variance `σ²` of Theorems 5-8; boundedness in
probability in Theorem 4).

Indexing note: sequences are indexed from `0`, so the paper's past σ-algebra
`F₁ᵏ = σ(Y₁, …, Y_k)` is encoded as `σ(Y_0, …, Y_k)` and partial sums are
`S_n = ∑_{i<n} Y_i`; under strict stationarity these conventions agree with the
paper's.
-/

open MeasureTheory ProbabilityTheory
open scoped ProbabilityTheory

namespace MarkovChainCLT

/-- The σ-algebra on `Ω` generated by the random variables `Y i` for `i ∈ s`. -/
@[reducible]
def processSigma {Ω E : Type*} [MeasurableSpace E] (Y : ℕ → Ω → E) (s : Set ℕ) :
    MeasurableSpace Ω :=
  ⨆ i ∈ s, MeasurableSpace.comap (Y i) inferInstance

/-- A sequence of random variables is **strictly stationary** if shifting time by any
`k` leaves the law of the whole sequence (as a random element of `ℕ → E`)
unchanged. -/
def IsStrictlyStationary {Ω E : Type*} [MeasurableSpace Ω] [MeasurableSpace E]
    (P : Measure Ω) (Y : ℕ → Ω → E) : Prop :=
  ∀ k : ℕ, Measure.map (fun ω => (fun n => Y (n + k) ω)) P
    = Measure.map (fun ω => (fun n => Y n ω)) P

/-- The **strong (α-) mixing coefficient** of the sequence `Y` at lag `n`
(Jones 2004, §3, Definition 1):
`α(n) = sup_k sup { |P(A ∩ B) - P(A) P(B)| : A ∈ σ(Y_0, …, Y_k), B ∈ σ(Y_{k+n}, …) }`. -/
noncomputable def alphaMixingCoef {Ω E : Type*} [MeasurableSpace Ω] [MeasurableSpace E]
    (P : Measure Ω) (Y : ℕ → Ω → E) (n : ℕ) : ℝ :=
  sSup {r | ∃ k : ℕ, ∃ A B : Set Ω,
    MeasurableSet[processSigma Y (Set.Iic k)] A ∧
    MeasurableSet[processSigma Y (Set.Ici (k + n))] B ∧
    r = |(P (A ∩ B)).toReal - (P A).toReal * (P B).toReal|}

/-- The **ρ-mixing (asymptotically-uncorrelated) coefficient** of the sequence `Y` at
lag `n` (Jones 2004, §3, Definition 2): the supremum of `|corr(U, V)|` over
square-integrable `U` measurable w.r.t. the past `σ(Y_0, …, Y_k)` and `V`
measurable w.r.t. the future `σ(Y_{k+n}, …)`. -/
noncomputable def rhoMixingCoef {Ω E : Type*} [MeasurableSpace Ω] [MeasurableSpace E]
    (P : Measure Ω) (Y : ℕ → Ω → E) (n : ℕ) : ℝ :=
  sSup {r | ∃ k : ℕ, ∃ U V : Ω → ℝ,
    Measurable[processSigma Y (Set.Iic k)] U ∧
    Measurable[processSigma Y (Set.Ici (k + n))] V ∧
    MemLp U 2 P ∧ MemLp V 2 P ∧
    r = |cov[U, V; P]| / (Real.sqrt (Var[U; P]) * Real.sqrt (Var[V; P]))}

/-- The **uniform (φ-) mixing coefficient** of the sequence `Y` at lag `n`
(Jones 2004, §3, Definition 3):
`φ(n) = sup_k sup { |P(B | A) - P(B)| : A ∈ σ(Y_0, …, Y_k), P(A) ≠ 0,
B ∈ σ(Y_{k+n}, …) }`. -/
noncomputable def phiMixingCoef {Ω E : Type*} [MeasurableSpace Ω] [MeasurableSpace E]
    (P : Measure Ω) (Y : ℕ → Ω → E) (n : ℕ) : ℝ :=
  sSup {r | ∃ k : ℕ, ∃ A B : Set Ω,
    MeasurableSet[processSigma Y (Set.Iic k)] A ∧ P A ≠ 0 ∧
    MeasurableSet[processSigma Y (Set.Ici (k + n))] B ∧
    r = |(P (A ∩ B)).toReal / (P A).toReal - (P B).toReal|}

/-- The **asymptotic variance series** of a (centered, stationary) real sequence:
`σ² = E[Y₀²] + 2 ∑_{k≥1} E[Y₀ Y_k]` (Jones 2004, Theorems 5-8; the `tsum` is the
honest limit whenever the covariance series is summable, which the theorems assert
separately). -/
noncomputable def seqAsymptoticVariance {Ω : Type*} [MeasurableSpace Ω]
    (P : Measure Ω) (Y : ℕ → Ω → ℝ) : ℝ :=
  (∫ ω, (Y 0 ω) ^ 2 ∂P) + 2 * ∑' k : ℕ, ∫ ω, Y 0 ω * Y (k + 1) ω ∂P

/-- A sequence of real random variables is **bounded in probability** (tight):
`∀ ε > 0, ∃ K, sup_n P(|Z_n| > K) ≤ ε`. -/
def BoundedInProbability {Ω : Type*} [MeasurableSpace Ω] (Z : ℕ → Ω → ℝ)
    (P : Measure Ω) : Prop :=
  ∀ ε : ℝ, 0 < ε → ∃ K : ℝ, ∀ n : ℕ, (P {ω | K < |Z n ω|}).toReal ≤ ε

end MarkovChainCLT
Source
G. L. Jones, "On the Markov Chain Central Limit Theorem", Probability Surveys 1 (2004) 299-320, arXiv math/0409112v2, Section 3 (arXiv v2 pp. 6-8, Definitions 1-3) and Section 4 (sigma^2 of Theorems 5-8)
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What the Lean code literally says, in plain math · claude-fable-5

processSigma — For arbitrary types Ω\OmegaΩ and EEE where only EEE carries a σ-algebra, a family of maps Yi:Ω→EY_i : \Omega \to EYi​:Ω→E indexed by i∈Ni \in \mathbb{N}i∈N, and a set s⊆Ns \subseteq \mathbb{N}s⊆N: the σ-algebra on Ω\OmegaΩ defined as the supremum over i∈si \in si∈s of the pullback σ-algebras { Yi−1(B):B⊆E measurable }\{\,Y_i^{-1}(B) : B \subseteq E \text{ measurable}\,\}{Yi−1​(B):B⊆E measurable} — that is, the smallest σ-algebra on Ω\OmegaΩ making every YiY_iYi​ with i∈si \in si∈s measurable. No measurability of the YiY_iYi​ relative to any ambient structure on Ω\OmegaΩ is assumed (none exists in this definition). For s=∅s = \varnothings=∅ the supremum is the trivial σ-algebra {∅,Ω}\{\varnothing, \Omega\}{∅,Ω}. The definition is marked reducible.

IsStrictlyStationary — For types Ω\OmegaΩ and EEE both with σ-algebras, a measure PPP on Ω\OmegaΩ (not assumed to be a probability measure), and Y:N→Ω→EY : \mathbb{N} \to \Omega \to EY:N→Ω→E: the proposition that for every k∈Nk \in \mathbb{N}k∈N, the pushforward of PPP under the map ω↦(n↦Yn+k(ω))\omega \mapsto (n \mapsto Y_{n+k}(\omega))ω↦(n↦Yn+k​(ω)), a map into the product space of sequences N→E\mathbb{N} \to EN→E, equals the pushforward of PPP under ω↦(n↦Yn(ω))\omega \mapsto (n \mapsto Y_n(\omega))ω↦(n↦Yn​(ω)). No measurability hypothesis on YYY appears anywhere; the pushforward of a measure under a map that is not almost-everywhere measurable is by convention the zero measure, so for non-measurable YYY the equality can hold degenerately with both sides equal to the zero measure.

alphaMixingCoef — For a measure PPP on Ω\OmegaΩ, maps Y:N→Ω→EY : \mathbb{N} \to \Omega \to EY:N→Ω→E, and n∈Nn \in \mathbb{N}n∈N: the real supremum of the set of all reals rrr such that there exist k∈Nk \in \mathbb{N}k∈N and sets A,B⊆ΩA, B \subseteq \OmegaA,B⊆Ω with AAA measurable with respect to the σ-algebra generated by Y0,…,YkY_0,\dots,Y_kY0​,…,Yk​ (the supremum of the pullback σ-algebras of YiY_iYi​, i≤ki \le ki≤k), BBB measurable with respect to the σ-algebra generated by {Yi:i≥k+n}\{Y_i : i \ge k+n\}{Yi​:i≥k+n}, and r=∣real(P(A∩B))−real(P(A))⋅real(P(B))∣r = \bigl|\mathrm{real}(P(A \cap B)) - \mathrm{real}(P(A))\cdot \mathrm{real}(P(B))\bigr|r=​real(P(A∩B))−real(P(A))⋅real(P(B))​, where real\mathrm{real}real converts [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞] to R\mathbb{R}R with ∞↦0\infty \mapsto 0∞↦0. The supremum ranges over all splitting times kkk jointly with AAA and BBB; n=0n = 0n=0 is allowed, in which case the two generating index ranges overlap at kkk. The candidate set contains 000 (take A=B=∅A = B = \varnothingA=B=∅). Junk conventions: sets of infinite measure enter through the value 000; the real supremum of a set unbounded above is 000 (possible when PPP is not finite).

rhoMixingCoef — For PPP, YYY, nnn as above: the real supremum of the set of all reals rrr such that there exist k∈Nk \in \mathbb{N}k∈N and functions U,V:Ω→RU, V : \Omega \to \mathbb{R}U,V:Ω→R with UUU measurable as a map from Ω\OmegaΩ equipped with the σ-algebra generated by Y0,…,YkY_0,\dots,Y_kY0​,…,Yk​, VVV measurable from Ω\OmegaΩ equipped with the σ-algebra generated by {Yi:i≥k+n}\{Y_i : i \ge k+n\}{Yi​:i≥k+n}, both UUU and VVV in L2(P)L^2(P)L2(P) (this membership is with respect to the ambient σ-algebra on Ω\OmegaΩ), and r=∣cov(U,V;P)∣ / (Var(U;P)⋅Var(V;P))r = |\mathrm{cov}(U,V;P)| \,/\, \bigl(\sqrt{\mathrm{Var}(U;P)}\cdot\sqrt{\mathrm{Var}(V;P)}\bigr)r=∣cov(U,V;P)∣/(Var(U;P)​⋅Var(V;P)​). Here cov(U,V;P)\mathrm{cov}(U,V;P)cov(U,V;P) is the Bochner integral ∫(U(ω)−∫U dP)(V(ω)−∫V dP) dP(ω)\int \bigl(U(\omega) - \int U\,dP\bigr)\bigl(V(\omega) - \int V\,dP\bigr)\,dP(\omega)∫(U(ω)−∫UdP)(V(ω)−∫VdP)dP(ω) (equal to 000 by convention if the integrand is not integrable), and Var(U;P)\mathrm{Var}(U;P)Var(U;P) is the variance ∫(U−∫U dP)2 dP\int (U - \int U\,dP)^2\,dP∫(U−∫UdP)2dP computed in the extended nonnegative reals and converted to R\mathbb{R}R with ∞↦0\infty \mapsto 0∞↦0. Junk conventions: when either variance is 000 (e.g. UUU constant almost everywhere) the denominator is 000 and real division by 000 yields 000, so such pairs contribute the value 000; if no admissible pair exists at all (for instance when constants fail to be in L2L^2L2, as for an infinite measure PPP, and nothing else qualifies) the candidate set is empty and the real supremum of the empty set is 000; a candidate set unbounded above likewise yields 000.

phiMixingCoef — For PPP, YYY, nnn as above: the real supremum of the set of all reals rrr such that there exist k∈Nk \in \mathbb{N}k∈N and sets A,B⊆ΩA, B \subseteq \OmegaA,B⊆Ω with AAA measurable with respect to the σ-algebra generated by Y0,…,YkY_0,\dots,Y_kY0​,…,Yk​ and P(A)≠0P(A) \ne 0P(A)=0 (as an extended-nonnegative value), BBB measurable with respect to the σ-algebra generated by {Yi:i≥k+n}\{Y_i : i \ge k+n\}{Yi​:i≥k+n}, and r=∣real(P(A∩B))/real(P(A))−real(P(B))∣r = \bigl|\mathrm{real}(P(A \cap B))/\mathrm{real}(P(A)) - \mathrm{real}(P(B))\bigr|r=​real(P(A∩B))/real(P(A))−real(P(B))​, with real\mathrm{real}real the [0,∞]→R[0,\infty] \to \mathbb{R}[0,∞]→R conversion sending ∞\infty∞ to 000. Junk conventions: a set AAA with P(A)=∞P(A) = \inftyP(A)=∞ satisfies P(A)≠0P(A) \ne 0P(A)=0 yet has real(P(A))=0\mathrm{real}(P(A)) = 0real(P(A))=0, and real division by 000 yields 000, so such an AAA contributes r=real(P(B))r = \mathrm{real}(P(B))r=real(P(B)); if no admissible AAA with P(A)≠0P(A) \ne 0P(A)=0 exists (e.g. PPP the zero measure) the candidate set is empty and its real supremum is 000; an unbounded candidate set also yields 000.

seqAsymptoticVariance — For a measure PPP on Ω\OmegaΩ and real-valued maps Y:N→Ω→RY : \mathbb{N} \to \Omega \to \mathbb{R}Y:N→Ω→R: the real number ∫Y0(ω)2 dP(ω)  +  2∑k=0∞∫Y0(ω) Yk+1(ω) dP(ω)\int Y_0(\omega)^2\,dP(\omega) \;+\; 2\sum_{k=0}^{\infty} \int Y_0(\omega)\,Y_{k+1}(\omega)\,dP(\omega)∫Y0​(ω)2dP(ω)+2∑k=0∞​∫Y0​(ω)Yk+1​(ω)dP(ω). All integrals are Bochner integrals, each equal to 000 by convention when its integrand is not integrable; the infinite series is a topological sum, equal to 000 by convention when the family of integrals is not summable. The cross terms always pair Y0Y_0Y0​ with Yk+1Y_{k+1}Yk+1​ for k=0,1,2,…k = 0, 1, 2, \dotsk=0,1,2,… (lags 1,2,…1, 2, \dots1,2,…); no means are subtracted anywhere, and no stationarity, measurability, or probability-measure hypotheses appear.

BoundedInProbability — For maps Z:N→Ω→RZ : \mathbb{N} \to \Omega \to \mathbb{R}Z:N→Ω→R and a measure PPP on Ω\OmegaΩ (not assumed to be a probability measure): the proposition that for every real ε>0\varepsilon > 0ε>0 there exists a real KKK (no sign constraint — KKK may be negative) such that for every n∈Nn \in \mathbb{N}n∈N, real(P{ω:K<∣Zn(ω)∣})≤ε\mathrm{real}\bigl(P\{\omega : K < |Z_n(\omega)|\}\bigr) \le \varepsilonreal(P{ω:K<∣Zn​(ω)∣})≤ε, where real\mathrm{real}real converts [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞] to R\mathbb{R}R with ∞↦0\infty \mapsto 0∞↦0. The set {ω:K<∣Zn(ω)∣}\{\omega : K < |Z_n(\omega)|\}{ω:K<∣Zn​(ω)∣} is not required to be measurable (PPP is applied to it as an outer measure), and no measurability of ZnZ_nZn​ is assumed. Junk convention: if that set has PPP-measure ∞\infty∞, the conversion yields 000 and the inequality holds trivially.

Human review
  • Endorsed by Community (Bot) · Aug 15, 2026

  • Endorsed by Shuze Chen · Aug 15, 2026

    Confirmed by the mission captain (proposal self-audit).

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