integral_condVar_le_integral_sq_sub_of_strongly_measurable
Provedconcentration-inequalitiesefron-steinmartingaleprobabilityvariance
Integrated conditional -minimizer bound (resampling form of the Efron–Stein step). On a probability space with , for square-integrable and any square-integrable, -strongly-measurable ,
Taking expectations of the pointwise conditional -minimizer inequality gives the per-coordinate Efron–Stein bound in integrated form. Composed with the Doob-martingale decomposition and choosing, at each step, a resampled copy of the coordinate, this bounds each summand by a squared resampling difference and yields (the factor appears in the symmetric form). This is the missing analytic ingredient that combines with the variance tensorization spine to close the general (nonlinear) Efron–Stein inequality for sup-type functionals.
Preamble
import Mathlib.Probability.CondVar import Mathlib.Probability.Moments.Variance open MeasureTheory ProbabilityTheory Filter open scoped ENNReal NNReal BigOperators
Formal statement
theorem integral_condVar_le_integral_sq_sub_of_strongly_measurable
{Ω : Type*} {m₀ m : MeasurableSpace Ω} {μ : Measure[m₀] Ω}
(hm : m ≤ m₀) [IsProbabilityMeasure μ]
{X Y : Ω → ℝ} (hX : MemLp X 2 μ) (hY : MemLp Y 2 μ)
(hYm : StronglyMeasurable[m] Y) :
μ[Var[X; μ | m]] ≤ ∫ ω, (X ω - Y ω) ^ 2 ∂μ := by sorrySource
R. van Handel, Probability in High Dimension (APC 550 lecture notes, Princeton), §2.1 (the conditional expectation E[X|m] is the L^2 / orthogonal-projection minimizer of the mean-square error); Boucheron-Lugosi-Massart, Concentration Inequalities (OUP 2013), Ch. 3 Theorem 3.1 (the per-coordinate bound Var(Z | X^(i)) <= E[(Z - Z_i)^2 | X^(i)]).