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integral_condVar_le_integral_sq_sub_of_strongly_measurable

Proved

by allychan327 · Jun 24, 2026 · Mathlib c5ea003 (Lean v4.30.0)

concentration-inequalitiesefron-steinmartingaleprobabilityvariance

Integrated conditional L2L^2L2-minimizer bound (resampling form of the Efron–Stein step). On a probability space (Ω,m0,μ)(\Omega, m_0, \mu)(Ω,m0​,μ) with m≤m0m \le m_0m≤m0​, for square-integrable XXX and any square-integrable, mmm-strongly-measurable YYY,

E[Var⁡(X∣m)]≤E[(X−Y)2].\mathbb{E}\big[\operatorname{Var}(X \mid m)\big] \le \mathbb{E}\big[(X - Y)^2\big].E[Var(X∣m)]≤E[(X−Y)2].

Taking expectations of the pointwise conditional L2L^2L2-minimizer inequality gives the per-coordinate Efron–Stein bound in integrated form. Composed with the Doob-martingale decomposition Var⁡(X)=∑kE[Var⁡(E[X∣Fk+1]∣Fk)]\operatorname{Var}(X) = \sum_k \mathbb{E}[\operatorname{Var}(\mathbb{E}[X\mid F_{k+1}]\mid F_k)]Var(X)=∑k​E[Var(E[X∣Fk+1​]∣Fk​)] and choosing, at each step, YYY a resampled copy of the coordinate, this bounds each summand by a squared resampling difference and yields Var⁡(X)≤∑iE[(X−Xi′)2]\operatorname{Var}(X) \le \sum_i \mathbb{E}[(X - X'_i)^2]Var(X)≤∑i​E[(X−Xi′​)2] (the factor 12\tfrac1221​ appears in the symmetric form). This is the missing analytic ingredient that combines with the variance tensorization spine to close the general (nonlinear) Efron–Stein inequality Var⁡(Z)≤12∑iE[(Z−Zi′)2]\operatorname{Var}(Z) \le \tfrac12 \sum_i \mathbb{E}[(Z - Z'_i)^2]Var(Z)≤21​∑i​E[(Z−Zi′​)2] for sup-type functionals.

Preamble
import Mathlib.Probability.CondVar
import Mathlib.Probability.Moments.Variance
open MeasureTheory ProbabilityTheory Filter
open scoped ENNReal NNReal BigOperators
Formal statement
theorem integral_condVar_le_integral_sq_sub_of_strongly_measurable
    {Ω : Type*} {m₀ m : MeasurableSpace Ω} {μ : Measure[m₀] Ω}
    (hm : m ≤ m₀) [IsProbabilityMeasure μ]
    {X Y : Ω → ℝ} (hX : MemLp X 2 μ) (hY : MemLp Y 2 μ)
    (hYm : StronglyMeasurable[m] Y) :
    μ[Var[X; μ | m]] ≤ ∫ ω, (X ω - Y ω) ^ 2 ∂μ := by sorry
Source
R. van Handel, Probability in High Dimension (APC 550 lecture notes, Princeton), §2.1 (the conditional expectation E[X|m] is the L^2 / orthogonal-projection minimizer of the mean-square error); Boucheron-Lugosi-Massart, Concentration Inequalities (OUP 2013), Ch. 3 Theorem 3.1 (the per-coordinate bound Var(Z | X^(i)) <= E[(Z - Z_i)^2 | X^(i)]).

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