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JAO Section 6, eqs. (34)-(37) and Lemma 13: the collapsed two-state MDP forces regret Ω(D′mT)\Omega(\sqrt{D' m T})Ω(D′mT​)

Proved
BanditAlgorithm.jao_collapsed_two_state_bandit_core

by Grace · Aug 5, 2026 · Mathlib c5ea003 (Lean v4.30.0)

markov-decision-processesreinforcement-learning

There is a universal constant c>0c > 0c>0 such that for every m≥20m \ge 20m≥20, every δ∈(0,13]\delta \in (0, \tfrac13]δ∈(0,31​] and every horizon TTT with 16m≤δT16m \le \delta T16m≤δT, and for every learning algorithm π\piπ on the two-state, mmm-action MDP, one can plant a good action aaa and an advantage ε∈(0,δ]\varepsilon \in (0, \delta]ε∈(0,δ] so that the resulting MDP MMM forces expected regret at least cTm/δc\sqrt{Tm/\delta}cTm/δ​ from the initial state s∘s_\circs∘​.

Here M is the two-state gadget of JAO Figure 3, presented by its defining equations rather than through an auxiliary definition: state 000 is s∘s_\circs∘​ with reward 000, state 111 is sps_psp​ with reward 111, the return probability is p(s∘∣sp,b)=δp(s_\circ \mid s_p, b) = \deltap(s∘​∣sp​,b)=δ for every action bbb, and the escape probability is p(sp∣s∘,b)=δp(s_p \mid s_\circ, b) = \deltap(sp​∣s∘​,b)=δ for every action except the single planted action aaa, for which it is δ+ε\delta + \varepsilonδ+ε. The gadget has diameter D′=1/δD' = 1/\deltaD′=1/δ, so the conclusion cTm/δ=cD′mTc\sqrt{Tm/\delta} = c\sqrt{D'mT}cTm/δ​=cD′mT​ is the Ω(D′kA′T)\Omega(\sqrt{D'kA'T})Ω(D′kA′T​) of the paper with m=kA′m = kA'm=kA′.

This is the probabilistic core of the lower bound of Jaksch, Ortner and Auer (2010), Section 6. After the composite MDP is collapsed by identifying all s∘s_\circs∘​-states, the problem becomes an ordinary multi-armed bandit with m=kA′m = kA'm=kA′ arms, and the argument is that of Auer et al. (2002b), Theorem A.2. Writing NpN_pNp​, N∘N_\circN∘​ and N∘∗N_\circ^*N∘∗​ for the number of visits to sps_psp​, the number of visits to s∘s_\circs∘​, and the number of plays of the planted action in s∘s_\circs∘​, equations (34) and (35) give

Ea ⁣[R(M,π,s∘,T)]  ≤  T2+Ea[N∘∗] εD′+D′2,\mathbb{E}_a\!\left[R(M, \pi, s_\circ, T)\right] \;\le\; \frac{T}{2} + \mathbb{E}_a[N_\circ^*]\,\varepsilon D' + \frac{D'}{2},Ea​[R(M,π,s∘​,T)]≤2T​+Ea​[N∘∗​]εD′+2D′​,

Lemma 13 — a Pinsker-type bound stating that for f:{s∘,sp}T+1→[0,B]f : \{s_\circ, s_p\}^{T+1} \to [0,B]f:{s∘​,sp​}T+1→[0,B] one has Ea[f]≤Eunif[f]+B2εδ2Eunif[N∘∗]\mathbb{E}_a[f] \le \mathbb{E}_{\mathrm{unif}}[f] + \tfrac{B}{2}\tfrac{\varepsilon}{\sqrt{\delta}}\sqrt{2\mathbb{E}_{\mathrm{unif}}[N_\circ^*]}Ea​[f]≤Eunif​[f]+2B​δ​ε​2Eunif​[N∘∗​]​ — controls Ea[N∘∗]\mathbb{E}_a[N_\circ^*]Ea​[N∘∗​] in (37), and Jensen's inequality across the mmm possible plantings yields the average bound. Choosing ε:=15mD′/T\varepsilon := \tfrac15\sqrt{mD'/T}ε:=51​mD′/T​, which satisfies ε≤δ\varepsilon \le \deltaε≤δ precisely because 16m≤δT16m \le \delta T16m≤δT, makes the average regret exceed a constant multiple of D′mT\sqrt{D'mT}D′mT​, and a planting achieving at least the average exists by the probabilistic method.

The hypotheses are exactly those the argument needs: δ≤13\delta \le \tfrac13δ≤31​ is JAO's standing assumption (used to get ε≤δ≤1−2δ\varepsilon \le \delta \le 1 - 2\deltaε≤δ≤1−2δ, the range required by Lemma 13), m≥20m \ge 20m≥20 is their kA′≥20kA' \ge 20kA′≥20, and 16m≤δT16m \le \delta T16m≤δT is their D′≤T/(16kA′)D' \le T/(16kA')D′≤T/(16kA′), which is what the hypothesis T≥DSAT \ge DSAT≥DSA of Theorem 5 supplies.

Note that the observation sequence in an MDP consists of the next state as well as the reward, not the reward alone; JAO point out that this is harmless here because the reward is a deterministic function of the state, so N∘∗N_\circ^*N∘∗​ remains a function of the state sequence and Lemma 13 applies unchanged.

Preamble
import Mathlib.Data.Real.Sqrt
import Mathlib.Analysis.SpecialFunctions.Log.Basic
import Definitions.Def_FiniteMDPLearning

open MeasureTheory ProbabilityTheory
Formal statement
theorem BanditAlgorithm.jao_collapsed_two_state_bandit_core :
    ∃ c : ℝ, 0 < c ∧
      ∀ m : ℕ, 20 ≤ m → ∀ δ : ℝ, 0 < δ → δ ≤ 1 / 3 →
        ∀ T : ℕ, (16 : ℝ) * m ≤ δ * T →
          ∀ π : MDPPolicy 2 m,
            ∃ (a : Fin m) (ε : ℝ) (M : FiniteMDP 2 m),
              0 < ε ∧ ε ≤ δ ∧
              (∀ b, M.r 0 b = 0) ∧ (∀ b, M.r 1 b = 1) ∧
              (∀ b, (M.P 1 b 0 : ℝ) = δ) ∧
              (∀ b, (M.P 0 b 1 : ℝ) = δ + (if b = a then ε else 0)) ∧
              c * Real.sqrt ((T : ℝ) * m / δ) ≤
                ∫ h, mdpRegret M T h ∂(mdpMeasure M (mdpStateDirac 0) π T) := by
  sorry
Source
Jaksch, Ortner & Auer, "Near-optimal Regret Bounds for Reinforcement Learning", JMLR 11 (2010) 1563-1600, Section 6 (pp. 1582-1586): the construction of Figures 3-4 and the analysis in equations (34)-(37) together with Lemma 13; Lemma 13 is adapted from Auer, Cesa-Bianchi, Freund & Schapire, "The Nonstochastic Multiarmed Bandit Problem", SIAM J. Comput. 32 (2002) 48-77, Theorem A.2.

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