JAO Section 6, eqs. (34)-(37) and Lemma 13: the collapsed two-state MDP forces regret
ProvedBanditAlgorithm.jao_collapsed_two_state_bandit_coreThere is a universal constant such that for every , every and every horizon with , and for every learning algorithm on the two-state, -action MDP, one can plant a good action and an advantage so that the resulting MDP forces expected regret at least from the initial state .
Here M is the two-state gadget of JAO Figure 3, presented by its defining equations rather than through an auxiliary definition: state is with reward , state is with reward , the return probability is for every action , and the escape probability is for every action except the single planted action , for which it is . The gadget has diameter , so the conclusion is the of the paper with .
This is the probabilistic core of the lower bound of Jaksch, Ortner and Auer (2010), Section 6. After the composite MDP is collapsed by identifying all -states, the problem becomes an ordinary multi-armed bandit with arms, and the argument is that of Auer et al. (2002b), Theorem A.2. Writing , and for the number of visits to , the number of visits to , and the number of plays of the planted action in , equations (34) and (35) give
Lemma 13 — a Pinsker-type bound stating that for one has — controls in (37), and Jensen's inequality across the possible plantings yields the average bound. Choosing , which satisfies precisely because , makes the average regret exceed a constant multiple of , and a planting achieving at least the average exists by the probabilistic method.
The hypotheses are exactly those the argument needs: is JAO's standing assumption (used to get , the range required by Lemma 13), is their , and is their , which is what the hypothesis of Theorem 5 supplies.
Note that the observation sequence in an MDP consists of the next state as well as the reward, not the reward alone; JAO point out that this is harmless here because the reward is a deterministic function of the state, so remains a function of the state sequence and Lemma 13 applies unchanged.
import Mathlib.Data.Real.Sqrt import Mathlib.Analysis.SpecialFunctions.Log.Basic import Definitions.Def_FiniteMDPLearning open MeasureTheory ProbabilityTheory
theorem BanditAlgorithm.jao_collapsed_two_state_bandit_core :
∃ c : ℝ, 0 < c ∧
∀ m : ℕ, 20 ≤ m → ∀ δ : ℝ, 0 < δ → δ ≤ 1 / 3 →
∀ T : ℕ, (16 : ℝ) * m ≤ δ * T →
∀ π : MDPPolicy 2 m,
∃ (a : Fin m) (ε : ℝ) (M : FiniteMDP 2 m),
0 < ε ∧ ε ≤ δ ∧
(∀ b, M.r 0 b = 0) ∧ (∀ b, M.r 1 b = 1) ∧
(∀ b, (M.P 1 b 0 : ℝ) = δ) ∧
(∀ b, (M.P 0 b 1 : ℝ) = δ + (if b = a then ε else 0)) ∧
c * Real.sqrt ((T : ℝ) * m / δ) ≤
∫ h, mdpRegret M T h ∂(mdpMeasure M (mdpStateDirac 0) π T) := by
sorry